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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Rob Howard  —  Jan 18 - 05:47 AM
  • Cable hits 1.3522 as USD continues to benefit from U.S. FX policy steer

  • U.S. Treasury nominee Yellen to say U.S. does not seek weaker USD - WSJ

  • See: nL1N2JS0LPnL1N2JT0L5. 1.3522 = lowest level since Jan 12

  • 1.3509 (Jan 12 low) and 1.3451 (Jan 11 low) are GBP/USD support points

  • COVID-19 vaccine supply not as good as hoped, UK says nL8N2JT19X

  • Net GBP long held by IMM speculators rises to 10-month high nL1N2JT0EZ

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jan 18 - 04:10 AM
  • AUD/USD hits 0.7663 after dropping from 0.7695 (early Europe high)

  • 0.7663 is the lowest level since Jan 5 (0.7661 was the low that day)

  • USD gains influenced by news Yellen to say U.S. does not seek weaker USD

  • See: nL1N2JS0LP. 0.7679 (Asian session low) is now a resistance level

  • 1-month 25D R/R option bias for AUD puts over AUD calls rises nL1N2JT0FK

  • IMM specs flip to net AUD long for first time since October nL1N2JT0E8

AUDUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Jan 18 - 02:54 AM
  • Implied volatility is the option markets measure of future actual volatility

  • Can be profitable to own, if actual volatility outperforms the price paid

  • It spiked higher again Monday as AUD/USD spot came under renewed pressure

  • It's premium for AUD puts over calls (spot downside) increased too

  • Benchmark 1-month 10.65 - it had retraced last weeks 9.85 to 10.85 gains

  • Additional 1-month volatility premium for AUD puts over calls paid 1.2 vol



AUD/USD 1-month expiry risk reversals - Click here

AUD/USD 1-month expiry implied volatility Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jan 18 - 02:20 AM
  • Recent recovery stymied by the cloud that spans 104.32-65 region

  • Falling trend-line from March 24 2020 111.71 peak, now at 104.18, also caps

  • Near-term bears need a break under converged tenkan and kijun lines

  • Both the tenkan and kijun line are now at 103.50

  • We are now short at 104.20 in anticipation for our 102.70 target

  • EUR/JPY has seen a 125.17-125.47 EBS range so far on Monday

  • USD/JPY Trader TGM2336. Previous update nL1N2JQ0I0

Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jan 18 - 02:12 AM
  • Last week's long upper candle shadow-Doji plus 1.3712 failure significant

  • Underlying weekly bull trend still in place but beginning to weaken

  • Long upper shadow already Monday: price sat on the 1.3563 30DMA

  • Could be a key week for the s/t bull bias

  • Close below last Mon's 1.3451 low-tipping point a concern for bulls

  • 1.3712 now topside bull trigger: we await stronger signals for now
















GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD daily candle chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jan 17 - 10:35 PM
  • -0.1% with risk, E-mini S&P -0.25%, Nikkei -0.85% and AsiaxJP -0.1%

  • China data beat expectations, led by 6.5% GDP - no AUD impact nL1N2JT06I

  • AUD traded in a 0.7679-0.7710 range - with consistent interest in Asia

  • Charts; negative momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs flat line - neutral setup

  • 0.7819 January high and 0.7838 upper 21 day Bollinger band major resistance

  • Uptrend has stalled - pivotal 0.7676 21 DMA, a base on this move, in view

  • Sustained 0.7675 break would target a test of 0.7502, 38.2% of Nov-Jan rise

For more click on FXBUZ


aud 2 jan 18 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jan 17 - 10:21 PM
  • Flat in a 1.3567-1.3624 range with strong though intermittent interest

  • UK fin min Sunak wants corporation tax rise to control debt nL4N2JT02C

  • UK vacancies for remote workers triple in a year - consultancy nL8N2JR0DG

  • Potential revolution in the future need for centralized office space

  • Sterling resilient, but EUR/GBP poised above pivotal support nL4N2JP16C

  • Techs; key resistance at 1.3712/14 - Jan high and upper 21 day Bolli band

  • Daily momentum studies flat line, 5, 10 & 21 daily moving averages edge up

  • Modest positive setup, break of 1.3451 2021 base would be bearish

    For more click on FXBUZ

gb 2 jan 18 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Jan 17 - 08:30 PM
  • USD/CAD rises 0.25% as recovery continues in Asia on deteriorating risk mood

  • Reflation trade succumbs to p/taking; Wall Street, commodities correct lower

  • E-Mini down 0.3%; investors eye Biden inauguration Wednesday

  • Biden to cancel Keystone XL pipeline permit on first day in office -CBC

  • Likely to weigh on CAD sentiment further nL1N2JS0P9nL1N2I4172

  • Resistance 1.2790, 1.2830-35, support 1.2735-40, 1.2700-10

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jan 17 - 08:14 PM
  • -0.1% in a low key Asia - no game changing weekend news, E-mini S&P -0.2%

  • Stocks and risk soft with Wall Street on Friday, Nikkei -0.7%, AsiaxJP -0.3%

  • China data dump in an hour event risk, led by GDP and IP nL4N2JP2QF

  • Charts; negative momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs flat line - neutral setup

  • Uptrend has stalled - pivotal - 0.7676 21 DMA, a base on this move, in view

  • Sustained 0.7675 break would target a test of 0.7502, 38.2% of Nov-Jan rise

  • 0.7676 21 DMA and earlier 0.7710 Asian high initial support-resistance

    For more click on FXBUZ

aud jan 18 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jan 17 - 05:48 PM
  • +0.6% - no market moving weekend news, but optimistic U.S. news on COVID-19

  • U.S. health expert Fauci upbeat on new vaccines and rollout nL4N2JS06B

  • Fauci comments are a potential risk positive for Asian markets

  • Austria lockdown extends nL1N2JS083, COVID surges in Portugal nL8N2JS0FA

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs track south - negative setup

  • Key support at 1.2063, 38.2% November-January rise in view

  • Sustained 1.2060 break would be a strong bearish signal

  • NY 1.2074 - 1.2114 range is initial support-resistance

For more click on FXBUZ


eur jan 18 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Jan 17 - 04:44 PM
  • AUD/USD starts week on cautious note as reflation trade runs into p/taking

  • Weighed down by risk aversion as Wall Street and commodities correct lower

  • Weak U.S. data Fri, rising virus toll cast doubts on global growth prospects

  • Traders eye China Q4 GDP data due Mon, recovery seen quickeningnL4N2JM0VQ

  • U.S. holiday Monday likely to affect trading activity

  • Support 0.7675-80, 0.7660-65, resistance 0.7725-30, 0.7750

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Citigroup Economic Surprise Index: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Jan 15 - 03:45 PM
  • Fade from Thursday high stalled above the cluster of support at 103.50-59

  • That includes the 10- & 21-DMAs, kijun, tenkan & 50% of January's rebound

  • Shorts likely to lighten up near 103.60, but go with flow below 103.50

  • Stops set above 104.20, Thur's EBS high & down TL from March come Monday

  • Burden of proof on bulls while below the TL, cloud & 100-DMA

For more click on FXBUZ


Chart Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Jan 15 - 03:23 PM

The dollar rose broadly on Friday as dour U.S. retail sales sparked safe-haven flows, augmenting gains that started when investors took profits on popular reflation trades after President-elect Joe Biden nL1N2JP30B announced his economic relief package.

Italian political uncertainty added to the drag on the euro, helping to guide EUR/USD down to its lowest since Dec.
10 and close to important support from the 50-day moving average, the 38.2% Fibo of the November-January advance and Dec.
9 swing low at 1.2076/64/58 on EBS.

A bearish 10- and 21-DMA cross nL1N2JQ1NM and overbought sell signals from weekly RSIs and Bolli bands make holding the nearby supports all the more important for a market still quite heavily spec long.

The dollar index extended its recovery from pandemic lows to new January highs, largely on the back of the EUR/USD's fall, as risk-off flows outweighed slippage in TIPS yields as global demand for Treasuries led the price action nL1N2JQ1FR.

Markets gave stellar U.S. industrial production data nAQN03OGJ6 less weight than the retail sales miss since retail and services, the sectors most undermined by the pandemic, far outweigh manufacturing as GDP inputs.

Sterling's repeated run-ins with resistance above 1.3700 ended poorly again amid broader dollar gains and stocks losses, but it suffered no major damage to its uptrend nL1N2JQ1IY.
A close below last week's 1.3533 low would be needed to undermine the dip-buying bias.

The safe-haven currencies -- dollar, yen and Swiss franc -- ran as a pack, leaving USD/JPY in the middle of Thursday's range, with prices this week stuck below the down trend-line from March, last at 104.23, and above the 10-DMA, kijun, tenkan/50% Fibo at 103.63/59/50.

USD/JPY's positive correlation to the broader dollar and good demand above 103.50 kept it aloft, if in consolidation.

The bigger yen price swings were against the retreating aussie and other high-beta currencies caught in the de-leveraging undertow nL1N2JQ1SE.
But the yen also scored haven gains against the euro and pound, with EUR/JPY breaking below its last five weeks' range lows.

Commodities weakened amid the dollar's gains, lousy U.S. retail sales and pandemic lockdowns in Europe nL4N2JQ22J and China nL1N2JQ0B4.

A bevy of Chinese data will start the new week, one without U.S. participation during Monday's holiday and no top-tier U.S. data until jobless claims on Thursday.

Instead, investors will watch the Jan.
20 U.S. presidential inauguration and opening agenda from Congress.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jan 15 - 01:45 PM
  • Downbeat risk drives US$ & yen buys in Europe's am, NY opens near 0.7740

  • Equities, copper fall hard in early NY, AUD/JPY sinks near 79.70

  • AUD/USD falls to 0.7682, drop aided by USD/CNH rally near 6.4850

  • Equity bounce helps AUD/USD lift near 0.7730, pair still down ~0.84% late

  • Techs favor bears, daily RSI drops, 10-DMA & t-l off Nov low pierced

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 15 - 01:30 PM

Credit Suisse discusses USD/JPY technical outlook and sees a scope for a move towards 104.77 ahead of 105.86.

"We remain of the view we may be witnessing the construction of a bullish falling “wedge” reversal. Only above 104.77 would see this confirmed though to mark a more important reversal higher to open up a move to 105.68 next, then likely the 200 -day average at 105.86, which we would expect to cap at first," CS notes. 

"Support moves to 103.52/45 initially, then 103.28. Below this latter level would now lessen thoughts of a “wedge” and instead warn of a direct resumption of the downtrend back to the lows and trend support from last July at 102.59/47. Key resistance is seen at the downtrend," CS adds. 

Source:
Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jan 15 - 12:38 PM
  • Jan. 14 rally erased; 10-DMA, t-l off November's low both get pierced

  • The bull trend off November's low looks to be in jeopardy again

  • Daily RSI implies s-t bear momentum in place, deeper correction due

  • The long-term rally off the 2020 low remains intact though

  • Longer-term bulls look to buy dips, good support near 0.7400/20

  • August, September, November monthly highs sit in that zone

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 15 - 10:45 AM

Citi discusses the outlook for the Fed policy trajectory.

"FOMC heavyweights have confirmed that any talk of tapering is premature – with Powell bringing up the rear after Clarida and Brainard earlier in the week. Powell confirmed that the Fed would wait for a sustainable overshoot of their 2% inflation target, and would not seek to “hike rates anytime soon.”.. This confirms CitiFX Strategy’s view that the Fed will undoubtedly remain very dovish," Citi notes. 

"Biden’s announcement was largely in line with expectations, coming in at USD1.9tn. CitiFX notes that this could temper the recent rise in US yields. We believe that the latest moves higher have largely been a function of increased supply expectations and likely overshot," Citi adds. 

Source:
Citi Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jan 15 - 10:46 AM

GBP/USD tumbled more than a penny from Thursday's 2021 trend high at 1.3712 nL1N2JQ160 as risk markets went into retreat, but cable's relatively shallow pullbacks lately, combined with reliable recent support at the 21- and 30-day moving averages should bolster sterling bulls' confidence.

The pound has struggled to hold above 1.37 in this month's rally as expectations of 2021 dollar weakness have yet to pan out.

But, the bulk of end-2020 positions were held in EUR/USD and to a lesser degree the yen 1097741NNET.
Recent weakness in the euro and yen have been accompanied by relative strength in GBP, AUD and CAD.

The redistribution of short USD positioning, away from the euro 1099741NNET, may continue to push the pound higher while success in UK lockdowns -- despite near-term economic pain -- and the removal of Brexit-related obstacles could potentially resuscitate UK growth.

GBP/USD's bullish structure remains intact above 1.3451, the 50% Fib of 1.3190-1.3712.
A rise above 2021's 1.3712 high would put upper 30-day and weekly Bolli's at 1.3740 and 1.3757 and the April 27, 2018 weekly high at 1.3792 in sharper focus.
For more click on FXBUZ


GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 15 - 09:30 AM

Bank of America Global Research discusses EUR/USD technical outlook and flags a scope for a dip towards 1.20 which should provide a good entry for longs.

"Euro divergences from RSI and MACD warned of a correction, the channel line has since broken and a decline is underway. We see Fibonacci retracements of 1.2064, 1.1976 and 1.1888 to be aware of. We are uncertain if spot breaks below 1.20. Our year ahead technical view suggests positioning for further upside in 1H21 when this dip looks to be ending. We think the dip in euro is tied to the overbought oil rally and the oversold bond market," BofA notes. 

"We think a dip in euro to 1.20, Brent into the $52s and 30Y UST to 1.75% is the first collusive area to evaluate entering a higher euro, higher 30Y yield and higher Brent oil trend again," BofA adds. 

m64.PNG

Source:
BofA Global Research
By eFXdata  —  Jan 15 - 09:01 AM

CIBC Research discusses its reaction to today's US retail sales for the month of December.

"Retail sales disappointed in the US in December, with the 0.7% drop in total sales worse than the consensus forecast for a flat reading and even worse than our below consensus call. Surprisingly, it was online sales that saw the largest drop at 5.8% on the month, although that group remains up by 21% y/y," CIBC notes.

"The disappointment coincided with surging Covid cases and a deterioration in the labor market, but with fresh fiscal stimulus on its way to Americans, spending on goods should have a floor under it while services could continue to struggle," CIBC adds. 

Source:
CIBC Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Jan 15 - 06:47 AM

The FX options market is already aware of the downside risk to EUR/USD nL1N2JQ0F5, but next week could see it increase, along with actual volatility, given some significant events that might warrant protection.

President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration and Janet Yellen's confirmation hearing for U.S. Treasury Secretary might give them the opportunity to comment on future policy.
A showdown in Italian politics nL1N2JQ0OE and a European Central bank meeting, with EU PMIs in the mix, too.

A simple one-week expiry straddle offers the right to buy, or sell EUR/USD at a set rate (strike) for an upfront premium.
It's a volatility play, so holders will offset strike risk by adjusting an opposing cash hedge as the spot market moves.

At 6.7, one-week implied volatility is in line with one-week daily historic volatility, which suggests fair value.
It means that EUR/USD's actual volatility only has to match its past week's performance to cover the premium with once daily cash hedging, while any increase can bring unlimited profit potential.

For more click on FXBUZ











EUR/USD 1-week implied is in line with 1-week daily historic Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jan 15 - 05:59 AM
  • AUD/USD elicited support at 0.7730 after extending south from 0.7805

  • 0.7730 approximates to Thursday's low. 0.7805 was Thursday's one-week high

  • Thursday's high was notched after dovish Powell comments nL1N2JP2A9

  • Subsequent decline influenced by modest Asian and European equity losses

  • Nikkei closed down 0.6%. Pan-European STOXX 600 down 0.4% nL4N2JQ22J

  • AUD is a liquid proxy for risk. 0.7805 = 14 pips shy of recent 34-month high

AUDUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jan 15 - 05:11 AM
  • Solid USD/JPY buying seen on EBS since Wed has run into solid resistance

  • USD/JPY bulls blocked by cloud and falling trend-line supply nL1N2JQ0I0

  • Daily cloud spans 104.32-65 region. TL from March 2020 peak now at 104.22

  • USD/JPY sees a 103.65-85 range so far, according to EBS prices Friday

  • Japanese importer, investor and other bids trail down from 103.50

  • USD/JPY, EUR/JPY relationship weak, 30-day log correlation well under +0.50

EBS Flow Data Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jan 15 - 03:47 AM
  • Bears are keeping the EUR/USD well under broken 1.2173 Fibonacci support

  • 1.2173 Fibo: 23.6% of the 1.1602 to 1.2349 (November to January) EBS rise

  • That increases the odds of a deeper drop to 1.2064 Fibo of the same rise

  • S-term there needs to be a break under Thur's 2020 1.2111 low

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous update nL1N2JP17R

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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