• USD/CAD topside momentum fading - break below 1.42 takes the heat out of the recent squeeze

• Spot holding sub-1.42 with broader USD offered, shifting focus back to downside levels

• 1.4140 now key - Nov 2025 high and confluence with 200-hour MAs

• Area shaping up as the near-term “face test” for the pullback and whether we see extension lower

• Clean break below opens room for follow-through, particularly if USD pressure persists

• That said, CAD not out of the woods - USMCA July 1 deadline keeps a layer of event risk in play

• Limited noise so far, but headline risk remains

• Any rhetoric around USMCA exit could see USD/CAD rip back through recent highs quickly
USDCAD hourly


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))