• USD IMM net spec G10 long -$1.8bn to +38.6bn in Oct 21-27 reporting period; $IDX +0.56%

• Take today's data lightly, the dollar on higher oil and lower AI tech is lower in current period

• EUR$-1% in period; specs -9.4k contracts now -143.9k; French bond/fiscal tumult weighs

• $JPY -0.12%; specs +31.7k contracts now +101.6k; specs maintain JPY long on hawkish BoJ

• GBP$ -0.53%; specs +1k contracts now -79.4k; runup to UK budget kept bulls on sideline

• $CAD -0.05%; specs +8.3k contracts now -66.4k; BoC on more hawkish path than Fed

• AUD$ +0.27%; specs -1k contracts now -128.3k; despite less hawkish 2027 view, RBA has high rates

Majors w/IMM Performance Chart:


IMM Position Table:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

The euro fell against a mixed dollar at month-end Friday as risk-off sentiment fueled by AI spending concerns and higher oil prices lifted demand for haven currencies.

The Nasdaq fell to its lowest in nearly three months, while a potential escalation in the US-Iran conflict after the US midterm elections helped lift crude.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said at least two more Fed hikes may be needed to curb inflation.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said a key priority is ensuring elevated inflation does not spread through the broader economy, while Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said policy remains on a clear tightening path, though the pace of hikes is uncertain.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said AI is already influencing how central bankers think about policy.

The dollar index formed a doji after rebounding from its 101.59 lower Bollinger, though a turn lower in one-month risk reversals points to growing downside bias.

EUR/USD slid to 1.1137 amid risk-off dollar demand and remains bearish below its 10- and 21-DMAs and 1.1172 resistance.

GBP/USD edged higher and remains constructive near its 100-day moving average, supported by expectations of a BOE rate hike next week.

AUD/USD formed a doji above 0.7000 after a brief dip to 0.7014, maintaining a constructive tone while holding above its 10- and 21-DMAs.

USD/JPY remained mildly bearish below its 21-DMA at 157.90 heading into next week's event risks, with support at the lower Bollinger at 156.95 ahead of its cloud bottom at 156.63 and resistance at 158.44 cloud top.

Treasury yields were down 3 to 9 basis points as the curve steepened. The 2s-10s curve was up about 1 basis point to +34.7bp.

The S&P 500 fell 2.4% as weakness in tech weighed.

WTI oil rose about 2% to over $104/bbl.

Gold slumped 3.4% to a new YTD low while copper fell about 2.3%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.09%, USD/JPY -0.25%, GBP/USD +0.15%, AUD/USD +0.03%, DXY -0.17%, EUR/JPY -0.33%, GBP/JPY -0.10%, AUD/JPY -0.19%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7035 after 0.7043 traded overnight, the pair fell early

• Soured risk drove USD buying & gold, silver, stocks sharply lower

• US yields softened as investors sought safer assets

• AUD/USD fell to 0.7014 but then managed to bounce off that low

• The pair hit 0.7037, sat just above 0.7030 late in the day, traded up +0.05%

• USD/CNH lift above 6.6540, firm USD helped AUD/USD move downward

• Rising RSIs, pair's hold above the 10- & 21-DMAs are bullish signals

• Monthly bull hammer and bull pennant on monthly chart add to bull signs
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research addressed the potential allocation shift by Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), and the likely implications for the Yen.

"The higher probability of a shift in flows relative to earlier this year, combined with a faster pace of tightening by the BoJ, means that valuation can play a bigger role in JPY performance as the policies that have justified the Yen’s undervaluation for years appear to be shifting in a more constructive direction," GS notes.

"That leaves short USD/JPY a much more attractive portfolio hedge now than it has been in recent years, especially with the likelihood of greater AI-related volatility that could push both equities and yields lower together—a market regime that typically benefits the Yen most," GS adds.

• EUR/CHF has fallen 3% since scaling a 17-month peak near 0.95 on Sept 30

• 0.9185 marks the EBS 17-week low for EUR/CHF today (Oct 30)

• French fiscal concerns have rattled the euro since Oct 1

• 10-year French-German bond yield spread hit 15-year high in October

• SNB made 11.6 billion franc profit from its foreign currency positions in Q3

• Swiss Oct inflation data due Tuesday (Nov 3); CPI forecast at 1.3%

EURCHF

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research reviews the October BoJ meeting,

"At today’s policy meeting the BoJ decided to leave the policy rate at 1.25% with only one dissenter. Hajime Takata voted in favour of a hike considering that that with underlying inflation having reached the price stability target, the situation had shifted to a new phase in which the Bank needs to step up the pace of policy tightening to bring the policy rate closer to the neutral rate. The main surprise in the policy statement was that the BoJ unanimously decided to sped p the pace of ETF sales. The annual pace of equity ETF sales will increase from JPY330 billion to JPY860 billion on a book-value basis from January 2027. As a share of total stock market trading value the sales will increase from 0.05% to 0.1% while the estimated period required to complete the sales of all ETF holdings will shorten from around 112 years to 43 years. It remains unclear why there was a need to suddenly increase the pace of selling," MUFG notes.

"The BoJ’s increased policy focus on the risk of an inflation overshoot was one reason why the BoJ decided to speed up the pace of rate hikes at the last policy meeting in September when they signalled that policy had entered a new phase. We expect the faster pace of tightening to continue with the BoJ delivering another quarterly hike in December," MUFG adds. 

• Shares of silver miners down, tracking prices of bullion [GOL/]

• Spot silver falls 5.3% to $49.63/ounce

• Prices plunge as rising crude oil prices and persistent inflation worries reinforced expectations of US interest rate hikes

• Hecla Mining and Coeur Mining down 5.8% and ~6%, respectively

• Canadian miners: Endeavour Silver slides 6.2% and Silvercorp Metals slips 5.7%

• Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust each plunge 5.2%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

Credit Agricole CIB Research on USD outlook into next week's US midterm elections.

"Ahead of the US midterms on 3 November, betting odds markets predict a victory for the Democratic Party that could see it potentially gaining control over the US Congress. In a recent focus piece, we analysed the USD performance after US elections since 1976 and concluded that the FX market impact depended on whether Democrats controlled the House only, or the Senate as well. In the case of the former, the USD rebounded strongly while it sold off in the case of the latter," CACIB notes.

"Assessing the FX impact from the midterms is further complicated by two seemingly conflicting USD drivers that could play out sequentially in the coming months. In the immediate aftermath of the vote, investors will focus on any indication that the Trump administration would re-escalate the conflict in Iran and thus boost the appeal of the high-yielding, safe-haven King USD across the board. The initial USD positive impact need not last, however, if we end up with another TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) situation," CACIB adds.

ANZ Research discusses Gold outlook and targets.

"Gold traded in a narrow range this week, briefly slipping below USD4,000/oz. The macro backdrop remains challenging amid increasing rate hike expectations, though the Fed held rates steady at its latest meeting. Geopolitics adds to the pressure. The growing likelihood of renewed US strikes on Iran after the mid-term elections raises the risk of fresh supply disruptions across the energy complex, keeping energy prices elevated and inflation expectations high," ANZ notes.

"While the long-term investment case for gold remains compelling, underpinned by strong central bank buying, reserve diversification and fiscal concerns, we see downside risk towards USD3,800/oz in the short term," ANZ adds

• AUD/USD fell below the 10-DMA in Asia, 0.7018 traded, buyers emerged

• 0.7043 hit in Europe's morning, NY opened near 0.7035, up +0.11%

• USD selling, US yield & USD/CNH drops helped limit the downside

• Drops in gold, silver, copper & equities helped cap AUD/USD's upside

• AUD/USD traded positive overnight despite soured risk sentiment

• Techs are bullish; RSIs are rising, pair is above the 10- & 21-DMAs

• Monthly bull hammer, bull pennant on monthly chart reinforce bull signals
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Yen gains after BOJ; AI jitters dent dollar

• USD/JPY has slipped from 157.89 to 157.12, on Friday, according to EBS data

• Spot stuck within the daily cloud that currently spans 156.63-158.44 region, 155.96 50% level supports

• BOJ keeps rate steady at 1.25%, declares victory in hitting price target, signals near-term hikes

• Japanese stocks could face more downside with BOJ accelerating ETF sales

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, 30 and 60-day log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD has traded a 24.5 pip range thus far Friday; 0.7018-0.70425

• Those parameters are within Thursday's 0.7015-0.7068 range

• 0.7068 was five-week high (0.6895 was 15-week low last week)

• CFTC data at 2030 GMT will show if net AUD short shrank in week to Oct 27

• Net AUD short hit all-time high of 127,292 contracts in week Oct 20

• Thirty out of 32 economists polled by Reuters expect RBA hike on Nov 3

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10am New York / 14:00 GMT on Friday October 30

• EUR/USD: 1.0925 (495M), 1.0975 (600M), 1.1000-05 (477M), 1.1015 (230M), 1.1025 (596M), 1.1045-50 (200M), 1.1075-80 (1.7B), 1.1100 (1.8B), 1.1120-25 (1.1B)

• EUR/USD: 1.1150-55 (5.7B), 1.1160-65 (615M), 1.1170-75 (2.9B), 1.1200-05 (4.6B), 1.1220-25 (896M), 1.1235-40 (448M), 1.1250 (762M), 1.1275-80 (1.1B), 1.1300-05 (1.1B)

• USD/JPY: 153.00-05 (551M), 153.75 (272M), 154.00 (508M), 155.00 (2.2B), 155.40 (1.9B), 155.50 (431M), 156.00 (1.3B), 156.95-157.00 (1.6B), 157.20-25 (329M)

• USD/JPY: 157.47-50 (876M), 157.70-75 (299M), 157.80-85 (870M), 157.95-158.00 (2.2B), 158.05-10 (233M), 158.15-20 (710M), 158.30-35 (418M), 158.50 (203M), 159.30-35 (257M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3000 (241M), 1.3100 (574M), 1.3150 (499M), 1.3200-05 (492M), 1.3250 (262M), 1.3300 (726M), 1.3320-25 (224M), 1.3400 (246M), 1.3500 (533M), 1.3545-50 (238M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8400 (270M), 0.8500 (270M), 0.8580-85 (887M). EUR/SEK: 11.2500 (384M)

• USD/CHF: 0.8205-10 (512M), 0.8325 (610M), 0.8400 (202M). EUR/CHF: 0.9250 (452M), 0.9275-80 (268M), 0.9350 (641M), 0.9365 (200M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6925 (612M), 0.7000-05 (902M), 0.7010 (275M), 0.7025-30 (1.6B), 0.7050 (463M), 0.7060 (288M), 0.7075-80 (606M), 0.7350 (299M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5550-55 (220M), 0.5620 (207M). AUD/NZD: 1.2300 (1.2B), 1.2325 (412M), 1.2400 (623M), 1.2475 (411M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3725 (201M), 1.3900 (369M), 1.3920-25 (370M), 1.3995-1.4000 (409M), 1.4025-30 (1.2B), 1.4035-40 (796M), 1.4045-50 (325M), 1.4070-75 (292M), 1.4095-1.4100 (503M)

• USD/ZAR: 15.2500 (225M), 16.0000-16.0500 (695M), 16.2000-16.2465 (225M), 16.4925-16.5000 (333M), 16.7500-16.7550 (237M)(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD climbs to 1.3412 (one-week high) as AI jitters weigh on dollar

• Stocks sink, bonds leap as AI giants' spending spooks investors

• Prior AI jitters helped inflate cable to 1.3418 (five-week peak) last week

• 1.3383 (Thursday high) is now a support point (1.3378 was Asia low)

• Thursday low was 1.3299. Wednesday low was 1.3274 (pre-UK budget)

• Binance freezes assets after $6.3 billion heist, crypto industry's biggest

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Adds coding for topics and RICS)

• EUR/USD rises from 1.1105 on Thursday to 1.1215 EBS on Friday

• US 10-year yield drops to 4.92%

• Spread with Germany narrows to 159bps, tightest since late Sep

• Traders were heavily short euros in advance ECB meeting

• Drop was stretched at base Bollinger bands

• Bigger rise toward 1.1248 or 1.1336 correction targets possible

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Australian silver stocks fall, while the broader mining sub-index slips 0.8%

• Spot silver prices slide alongside those of gold and platinum as higher oil prices and robust US inflation data strengthen the case for another Fed rate hike [GOL/]

• Sun Silver slips as much as 5.2% to A$0.73, their largest intraday pct fall since October 23; stock set to eke out slight 1.4% weekly gain

• Silver Mines declines as much as 4.2% to A$0.115; however, stock set to gain 9.5% for the week

(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)

• Australian copper stocks fall on the day, adding to the broader mining sub-index's 0.8% decline

• Prices for the red metal fell from two-week highs overnight as investors remained wary of high US inventories and cautious overthe level of AI-related demand [MET/L]

• Shares of Sandfire Resources fall as much as 1.7% to A$19.92; still set for 9% weekly gain

• Australia-listed shares of Capstone Copper slip as much as 1.8% to A$11.81, though still on track for 6.5% gain on the week

• Capstone on pace to snap four straight weeks of losses

(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)

• Australian gold stocks decline as much as 1.3%, breaking a four-day streak of gains to head for their worst day in a week

• Gold prices edge lower in Asian trading on Friday after tumbling more than 1% in the previous session, as persistent US inflation reinforced expectations of additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, denting demand for bullion [GOL/]

• Shares of Evolution Mining drop 0.3%, while Northern Star Resources gains 0.7% on the sub-index

• YTD, gold stocks down 8.5%

(Reporting by Subhalakshmi Dey in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY slumping into the BOJ policy announcement

• From an early high of 157.89 to 157.19 EBS, still looking weak

• Fall could be on second thoughts on a BOJ hike today?

• Tokyo October CPI data high and well above BOJ's 2% target

• Expectations for continuing rises in national inflation data too

• Also of interest fall in more AI-technology stocks after NYSE close

• In addition to Alphabet profit miss, Amazon and Intel profits down too

• AI-hyperscaler concerns on the rise again

• Recent USD/JPY moves tied to moves in global equities

• JPY again seen as a haven of sorts?

• This despite Nikkei falls as foreign investors take off currency hedges

• Related , on Tokyo CPI/economy

• On Amazon, Intel shares , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


S&P E-Minis Index - hourly:


Nikkei 225 hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD flat Fri amid softening sentiment as AI trade starts to wobble

• AUD Q3 PPI +1.1% q/q, +3.6% y/y (prior +1.3% and 3.6% respectively)

• Alphabet revenue miss, Amazon sales downgrade stoke U.S. equity fears

• AU domestic attention firmly trained on Tue's RBA meeting outcome

• Futures pricing currently implies 89.2% probability of 25 bps RBA hike Tue

• AUD break above 0.7071 55-DMA would open window for challenge of 0.7140

• Range Asia 0.7018-30 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY trading tad lower ahead of BOJ, Asia 157.60-89 EBS

• USD tad lower across the board with Wall Street, US Treasury yields off

• USD/JPY still ensconced in 156.63-158.44 daily Ichi cloud, 200-DMA 158.55

• Pivoting around 157.84-158.03 ascending hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Support from area of 100/200-HMAs at 157.68/67? Bids below?

• Some large option expiries in area again today, to help contain spot?

• On 156 $2.1 bln, 157.00-50 $2.5 bln, 157.65-95 $1.3 bln, 158.00 $2.1 bln

• Also between 158.05-75 strikes total $1.9 bln

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials narrower again, 2s @278, 10s @216 bps

• BOJ hawkish hold eyed but surprise hike would send yen higher

• Japanese exporters, others to sell on any hike, importer buys on slump

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also

• US markets , , ,

• More on BOJ , Fed ,
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries into next week:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD +0.5% from Thur 0.56071 low, as impact from RBNZ hold dissipates

• Traders now contemplating magnitude and timing of subsequent OCR hikes

• Futures pricing currently implies 77.3% probability of Dec 9 RBNZ hike

• Alphabet revenue miss, Amazon sales downgrade add to U.S. equity anxiety

• U.S. Sep core PCE +0.3% m/m (inline), Q3 GDP advance +3.4% y/y (poll 3.2%)

• NZ Q3 jobs data due Wed (prior 5.6% unemployment, +0.5% job growth q/q)

• NZD sellers ahead of 0.5639 21-DMA, break above likely to flip narrative

• Range NZ 0.5626-35, support 0.5566 0.5485, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

ING Research reviews the October BoC policy meeting.

"The Bank of Canada raised rates by 25bp to 2.50% yesterday, in line with market expectations. Stronger activity and growing concerns about cost pass-through suggest this is unlikely to be a one-and-done move, although policymakers stressed they will proceed carefully. We expect another 25bp hike in 1Q27, most likely in January, with the risk that persistently high energy prices bring that move forward to December. That said, we think markets are too hawkish in pricing around 90bp of tightening over the next 12 months. The BoC’s central estimate of neutral is around 2.75%, and while second-round inflation effects should emerge as firms pass higher costs to consumers, we expect them to remain contained, particularly when it comes to wage growth. Our base case therefore remains that rates peak at 2.75%," ING notes.

"For CAD, oil remains the key swing factor. High prices can keep December hike expectations alive and support the currency, but we remain bearish on oil and think a correction would trigger dovish BoC repricing. We therefore see limited room for CAD gains from the domestic story alone and retain our year-end USD/CAD target of 1.420," ING adds.

• AUD/USD -0.5% from Thur 0.7068 high as markets recalibrate pre-RBA meeting

• Futures pricing currently implies 83.8% probability of 25 bps RBA hike Tue

• AUD break above 0.7072 55-DMA would pave way for challenge of 0.7140

• AU Q3 PPI due 0030 GMT, prior +1.3% q/q, +3.6% y/y

• Alphabet revenue miss, Amazon sales downgrade add to U.S. equity anxiety

• U.S. Sep core PCE +0.3% m/m (inline), Q3 GDP advance +3.4% y/y (poll 3.2%)

• Overnight range 0.70146-465 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)