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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Richard Pace  —  Jul 03 - 07:35 AM

For the last few weeks, option traders have been paring downside protection to help fund topside options, but that's left a void which could exacerbate any near term squeeze lower.

DTCC data shows option expiries over the next couple of weeks are mainly concentrated between 1.1200 and 1.1400, with little below.

Related delta hedging of impending expiries can help to contain the spot market, as we have seen this week, where 20-billion euro expiries between 1.1200-1.1300 played their part. nL1N2E605V

Over the next two weeks there are 20-billion euro expiries between 1.1200-1.1300 and similar size between 1.1300 and 1.1400 to help slow any further topside progress, but only 6-billion down to 1.1100.
Less expiries mean less delta hedging flow to stem any downside volatility/losses.

With EUR/USD widely expected to head higher over coming months nL1N2EA07P, any setback will present better opportunities to add longs, but if this lack of option coverage does play a part, there may be better levels to buy that dip.

Related comment nL1N2EA08T

For more click on FXBUZ


EURUSD option expiries Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jul 03 - 06:05 AM

Although British Prime Minister Boris Johnson says there are other good options if a trade deal between the European Union and the United Kingdom can't be agreed, those options are unlikely to be good for the pound.

Johnson told LBC radio on Friday that an "Australia-style" arrangement would be a "very good option" if an EU-UK trade deal can't be agreed nL8N2EA1T4.
Last Saturday, Johnson told his Polish counterpart that Britain is ready to quit its transitional arrangements with the EU on "Australia terms" if there is no deal nL8N2E409Y.

On Thursday, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said "serious divergences remain" between the EU and Britain.
This was echoed by his UK counterpart David Frost, who said there are "significant differences" between the EU and Britain "on a number of important issues" nL8N2E93R9.

Fear that the EU and Britain might not reach a trade deal before-year end influenced the pound's drop to a 13-week low against the euro, 1.09, at the start of this week.
EU-UK trade negotiations resume next week.
Related comment: nL1N2E60A8

For more click on FXBUZ


GBPEUR Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jul 03 - 06:00 AM
  • Cable eased to test 1.2440 after UK PM Johnson addressed big EU-UK issue

  • Johnson: Other good options if we can't reach deal with EU nL9N2CG01K

  • More: nL8N2EA1T4. 1.2440 was two-day low after French political news

  • See: nL8N2EA18E. 1.2470 was rally high from the 0740GMT 1.2440 low

  • 1.2485 was early Ldn high. UK June final service PMI 47.1 vs 47.0 f/c

  • See: nL8N2E94UO. EU-UK trade talks resume next week nL8N2E93R9

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Jul 03 - 02:55 AM
  • EUR/USD continues to trade inline with likely SNB actions

  • Top and tailing effect upon EUR/USD of SNB intervention nL1N2E70DG

  • EUR/USD boosted early yesterday rising from 1.1250 to 1.1302 (intervention?)

  • Pair subsequently sliding to 1.1224 (rebalancing?)

  • Switzerland may need to boost intervention nL1N2E90C6

  • SNB is already one of the biggest FX players, maybe the biggest player

  • Bigger intervention risks greater distortion. To step back risks disorder



EUR/CHF and EUR/USD hourly Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jul 03 - 02:10 AM
  • In June EUR/USD found support ahead of the 1.1157 Fibo = bullish

  • 1.1157 Fibo: 38.2% retrace of the 1.0728 to 1.1422 (April to June) EBS rise

  • Flow data signals window of opportunity for EUR/USD longs nL1N2E90CY

  • While the overall scope is for gains to test 1.1348/53 June 23/16 highs

  • A large upper shadow on Thur's candle has stymied EUR/USD bulls near-term

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous EUR/USD update nL1N2E908J

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Jul 03 - 01:30 AM
  • AUD/USD trades in well supported but narrow 0.6914-0.6932 range in Asia Fri

  • Bolstered by rally in metals, commodities & stocks; ASX 200 +2.2% this week

  • Australia May retail sales see record surge as economy reopensnL4N2EA0HF

  • Robust U.S. jobs data, stellar Caixin China services PMI boost risk mood

  • U.S. holiday dampens trading activity but rally likely to resume next week

  • Global surge in new virus cases taken in stride; U.S. at recordnL1N2E92RJ

  • Resistance 0.6950-55, 0.6974-77, support 0.6900-05, 0.6875-80

  • For more click on FXBUZ


aud 2 jul 3: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jul 03 - 12:10 AM
  • -0.1%, towards the base of a tight 1.2457-1.2472 range with modest interest

  • UK to relax England's quarantine rules for visitors - bold move nL8N2E96DU

  • Market didn't expect Brexit and does not expect 'no deal' nL1N2EA00P

  • Consumer confidence bounce nS8N2DA01F factories plan lay-offs nL4N2E92VW

  • Techs; positive momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict - neutral setup

  • Bounce leaves the price at familiar levels - suggests consolidation

  • 1.2514 21 DMA and 1.2532 50% of the June fall capped, now the pivotal level

  • 1.2422-28 5 & 10 DMAs and earlier 1.2472 high are initial support-resistance

  • For more click on FXBUZ

gbp 3 jul 3 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jul 02 - 09:55 PM

Sterling has been resilient this week despite UK GDP data undershooting forecasts nL8N2E714Z and manufacturing PMI only matching expectations nL8N2E760Z.
An optimistic sterling poll released by Reuters on Thursday may explain the GBP bounce.

Analysts in the poll expect sterling to appreciate 4% in the next year if Britain and the European Union reach an agreement on future trade relations, as they forecast nL8N2E82DJ. This suggests there is demand for the currency on dips and it's up 0.5% this week, though short-covering may have played a role based on IMM data nL1N2E6059.

Yet the EU have maintained since negotiations began, that in order for the UK to retain access to European markets, they must comply with core EU regulations, known as an 'even playing field'.
The UK under PM May accepted this concept, but under PM Johnson, it is equated with compromising Britain's sovereignty. A face-to-face meeting between the EU and UK's chief negotiators was cancelled on Thursday due to lack of progress nL8N2E93R9.

The EU need to protect the interests of their members and deter any further countries from leaving, while the UK is now led by ideological Brexiteers.
The EU's drawn-out coronavirus budget negotiations show that speed is not one of their virtuesnL8N2E929J. Meanwhile, the clock ticks towards the Dec.
31 deadline as both sides prepare for a 'no deal' Brexit.

For more click on FXBUZ


gbp 2 jul 3 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jul 02 - 09:40 PM
  • +0.05%, extending yesterday's 0.15% gain ahead of retail sales

  • Retail sales came in at 16.9%, against a poll of 16.3% - no impact

  • Risk continues to lead - positive Asian stocks, ASX 200 +0.9%, Nikkei +0.5%

  • Techs; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict or coil - neutral setup

  • Choppy 0.6777-0.6977 range is in it's fourth week - set to extend

  • Horizontal 0.6808-0.7003 21 day Bollinger bands also support range trading

  • NY 0.6902-0.6952 post payrolls range is initial support-resistance

    For more click on FXBUZ

aud jul 3 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jul 02 - 07:25 PM
  • Flat early - closed -0.06%, after stalling at 1.2532, 50% June fall

  • GfK consumer confidence strongest since start of COVID lockdown nS8N2DA01F

  • UK factories increasingly plan lay-offs, survey shows nL4N2E92VW

  • Techs; positive momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict - neutral setup

  • Bounce leaves the price in familiar territory - suggests consolidation

  • 1.2515 21 DMA and 1.2532 50% of the June fall capped, now pivotal resistance

  • 1.2458 NY low and 1.2424/29 5 & 10 DMAs are initial support

gbp jul 3 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Jul 02 - 07:15 PM
  • USD/JPY fails to make much headway despite robust U.S. jobs datanL1N2E82LC

  • Trades in a relatively narrow range of 107.34-107.72 on Thursday

  • Rise limited by concerns about surging COVID-19 cases in many U.S. states

  • Buoyant risk mood supports; S&P 500 registers gains of 4% this week

  • U.S. holiday Fri dampens trading activity; muted activity likely in Asia too

  • Support 107.30-35, 107.04-12; resistance 107.70-75, 107.95-108.00

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Payrolls: Click here

Which sectors gained jobs in June?: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Jul 02 - 06:00 PM
  • AUD/USD opens 0.15% higher; strong U.S jobs data lifts risk moodnL1N2E82LC

  • Boosted by rise in metals & commodities; copper touches highest since Jan 22

  • Rise limited by concerns about surging COVID-19 cases in many U.S. states

  • AU May retail sales Fri; huge recovery to +16.3% expected from -17.7% in Apr

  • U.S. holiday Fri to dampen trading activity; China Caixin services PMI due

  • Resistance 0.6950-55, 0.6974-77, support 0.6900-05, 0.6875-80

  • For more click on FXBUZ


A miraculous COVID-19 recovery but Dr Copper needs more tests: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jul 02 - 04:06 PM
  • CFTC Commitment of Traders report Click here to Jul 6 owing to US holiday

  • In Jun 24-30 period $IDX gained 0.75%, may hint recent USD shorts lightening

  • EUR -0.67%, longs have risen since end May now +118k contracts 1099741NNET

  • USD/JPY +1.35%, upbeat glbl recovery tone see haven exit, specs long JPY 27k

  • GBP -0.9%, Brexit angst weighs on GBP; spec short likely grew 1096742NNET

  • AUD -0.37%, relatively firm on rising commods, short cut since June extremes 1232741NNET

  • For more click on FXBUZ

 

Majors Chart: Click here

IMM Position Table: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jul 02 - 01:35 PM
  • Pair gains in Europe's morning as upbeat risk drives US$ & yen sales

  • NY opens near 1.1280 after pair traded a 1.1302 high on EBS

  • Risk rallies on upbeat jobs nL1N2E90ON; EUR/JPY hits 121.44 high (EBS)

  • EUR/USD lifts to 1.12975 NY high (EBS) but a reversal takes hold

  • Equity gains erode while US$ & yen buyers emerge, EUR/USD trades to 1.1224

  • Small bounce near 1.1240 late but pair still down small on the day

  • Daily, monthly tech signals conflict a bit but bulls likely to reign

  • Bullish factors for EUR/USD remain, dips likely to be bought nL1N2E915A

  • For more click on FXBUZ














eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jul 02 - 01:05 PM
  • GBP/USD ending NY -0.11% at 1.2465; NorAm range 1.2530-1.2458

  • Pair soft into London close, recent longs lighten ahead of US holiday

  • Whipsaw after US NFP beat nL1N2E82LC, Friday Brexit negotiations canceled

  • Brexit hangover kills sterling's US payrolls buzz nL1N2E90UX

  • Pair finds supt near 1.2462, 100-DMA; res 1.2532 50% Fib of 1.2812-1.2252

  • EUR/GBP -0.13% at 0.9010, Thurs range 0.9031-0.9004; EUR offered into US holiday, pair eyes 30-DMA supt at 0.8984

  • For more click on FXBUZ

GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 02 - 11:30 AM

Credit Suisse discusses USD/CAD technical and flags a scope for a bear wedge pattern targeting a move towards 1.3491/86.

"USDCAD has failed to follow through on its recent close above the 1.3686 high USDCAD which reinforces the view of an extension of the consolidation range and turn our thoughts towards the potential for a bear ‘wedge’ continuation pattern, which would reinforce our bias for break lower in due course as well as the existing large bearish ‘descending triangle’ continuation pattern that is still in place. With this in mind, we see support initially at 1.3575, ahead of the pivotal 200-day average at 1.3491/86, beneath which would trigger the pattern to suggest the core bear trend is resuming," CS notes. 

"In contrast, a close above 1.3686 would see the correction higher continue, with 1.3716/19 the next resistance, above which should see a move back to the more important breakout point and 55-day average at 1.3828/56, which ideally caps any further upside if reached," CS adds. 

Source:
Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jul 02 - 09:35 AM
  • Cable eyes 1.2462 after sliding from a post-NFP one-week high of 1.2530

  • 1.2462 was the Asian session low. It is also the 100DMA nL1N2E909P

  • Support points below 1.2462 include 1.2436 (June 24 high) and 1.2418 (55DMA)

  • 1.2530 was two pips shy of 50% retracement of 1.2812-1.2252 nL1N2E90P9

  • EU/UK negotiators meeting on Friday has been cancelled - officials

  • See: nB5N2B4004nL8N2E93JKnS8N2DF0AY. EU-UK talks resume next week

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 02 - 09:30 AM

Citi flags a scope for a USD short covering and some gains on the cards in the near-term. 

"Strong USD data as well as more vaccine hopes spurred another round of risk taking with high beta FX led the way," Citi notes. 

"CitiFX Strategy is patient on the USD against this continued backdrop of solid economic performance: “ With a stronger than expected economic rebound, a market still short dollars, and thin summer trading, we believe this suggests further scope for USD short covering and like USD higher in the near term.” Citi adds. 

Source:
Citi Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 02 - 08:49 AM

CIBC Research discusses its reaction to today's US jobs report for the month of June.

"Non-farm payrolls posted an impressive 4.8 million advance in June, which was more than 1.5 million above the consensus forecast albeit broadly in line with our expectation. With the job increases tilted once again towards lower-paying sectors that were hit worse by the job losses of April, average hourly earnings "fell" 1.2% on the month. A gain in employment of similar magnitude in the household survey meant that the unemployment rate fell to 11.1% (from 13.3 vs a consensus of 12.5%) despite a larger-than-expected rise in participation," CIBC notes. 

"However, even with the gain in June, payrolls have only recouped about a third of the jobs lost over March and April. And given that Covid-19 cases have been rising again in some parts of the country, resulting in the delaying/reversal of reopening plans, even the partial rebound in jobs during May and June could be viewed as too much, too soon, relative to the virus spread. Some of the high frequency employment and mobility data that have been the best guides to non-farm payrolls in recent months had already started to show a flattening out of the previous improving trend during the second half of June (after the payroll survey period ended). Moreover, today's claims figures were a little disappointing, with both initial and continuing claims showing very little change versus the prior week. While we currently still expect a positive print for July's payroll figures, it will be much smaller in size," CIBC adds. 

Source:
CIBC Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jul 02 - 07:00 AM

FX traders have been exiting EUR/USD all week, according to EBS flow data, likely lightening the outstanding speculative long and increasing the chances that there will be extended gains in coming sessions.

IMM data show that for the week ending June 23, the value of the net long EUR position held by speculators edged higher to 14.81 billion euros from 14.64 billion euros the previous week.

However, EBS data since shows traders may well have exited some of those longs, meaning sell offers and stops associated with the diminishing speculative long are less likely to hinder gains.

EUR/USD looks set for an extension to test the 1.1348/53 June 23/16 highs.
In June EUR/USD found support ahead of the 1.1157 Fibonacci level, a 38.2% retracement of the 1.0728 to 1.1422 (April to June) EBS rise, keeping the overall bias on the upside.
EUR/USD longs survived the daily cloud twist circa 1.0900 on Wednesday, giving them fresh scope to push the market higher.

Related nL1N2E20B0

For more click on FXBUZ


EBS Flow Data Chart: Click here

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jul 02 - 05:45 AM
  • Cable eyes 1.2532 after 2.2% rise in 48 hours (1.2258 was Tuesday's low)

  • 1.2532 is 50% retracement of 1.2812 (June 10 high) to 1.2252 (Monday's low)

  • 1.2541 (last week's high, June 24) is a resistance level beyond 1.2532

  • On Wednesday, new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. rose by a record amount

  • See: nL1N2E81ESnL1N2E90BO. U.S. jobs report due 1230GMT nL1N2E820Y

  • More: nL8N2E91F3. GBP/EUR up nearly 2 cents from Monday's low nL1N2E908X

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jul 02 - 04:45 AM
  • Asian stocks near 4-month highs on vaccine hopes nL4N2E91HN

  • Record U.S. job growth expected, but masks labor mkt weakness nL1N2E820Y

  • USD/JPY has seen tight trading on Thursday, 107.34-55 range on EBS so far

  • Market continues to trade circa the large 107.50 NY cut expiry worth $1B

  • USD/JPY bearish engulfing, bull trap, takes pressure off shorts nL1N2E909G

  • EUR/JPY 30/60-day correlations with USD/JPY are strong, readings +0.63/+0.61

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jul 02 - 04:00 AM
  • USD/JPY formed a bearish engulfing pattern on Tuesday and Wednesday

  • A smaller, white-bodied candle followed by a larger black one

  • Headway through the thick cloud (107.30-108.85) seems to have been stymied

  • A bull trap above 107.97 Fibo -- 50% if 109.85-106.08 drop -- also weighs

  • Bull trap: break above a key level followed by a quick reversal

  • EUR/JPY has seen a 120.79-121.27 range, according to EBS prices

  • USD/JPY Trader TGM2336. Previous update nL1N2E80B2. Short nL1N2E80CB

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jul 02 - 02:45 AM
  • Weekly action shaping up for a strong bullish candle: negates prev bear week

  • Bounce out of the daily cloud extends to 1.2504, just shy of 21DMA

  • Next resistance points at the average, 1.2522, and the Jun 24 1.2541 high

  • A 50% Fibo off the recent 1.2812 to 1.2252 drop comes at 1.2532

  • We bid by 1.2390 to exploit any corrective adjustment for 1.2530-70

  • Cloud base and recent lows represent key support, 1.2252-1.2289














GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD daily Ichimoku chart: Click here

GBP/USD weekly candle chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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