Societe Generale Research keeps recommending short NZD/JPY and short GBP/CHF as its preferred trades for August.
"It’s striking that the volatility and the ‘normal’ seasonal moves are concentrated in EM. The very fragile three – TRY, ZAR, BRL, are down by an average of over 3% against the dollar and almost 4% against the euro, but NZD, AUD, CAD and GBP, the G10 currencies which find August tough, are doing OK so far. The yen and Swiss franc, by contrast, may be up against the dollar but not against any of the other G10 currencies," SocGen notes.
"Still, we’ll persist with GBP/CHF and NZD/JPY shorts, as well as longs in EUR/USD vol," SocGen adds.