• USD net G10 IMM long grew by $4.97bn in Jun 17-23 reporting period; $IDX +0.68%

• Since the period close, UK political vista more settled, Fed on more dovish policy view

• EUR$ -0.76% in period; specs -4.2k contracts now +3.2k; dovish ECB stirred selling

• $JPY +0.28%; specs +4k contracts now -146.1k; spec traders wary of MOF near 162

• GBP$ -0.68%; specs -31.1k contracts now -105.7k; political, fiscal uncertainty weighed

• $CAD +0.79%; specs -13.9k contracts now -146.8k; Fed-BoC divergence weighed on CAD

• AUD$ -2.15%; specs -8.9k contracts now -13k; converging Fed/RBA policy outlooks stirs AUD unwind

IMM Position Table:


Majors w/IMM Performance Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

The euro rose against a mixed dollar on Friday, supported by profit-taking, month-end flows and lower U.S. yields as softer oil tempered Fed tightening expectations. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank may need to raise rates as inflation remains broad-based, reiterating inflation concerns expressed by New York Fed President John Williams on Thursday. U.S. data showed the goods trade deficit widened sharply to a 14-month high in May, while consumer sentiment rebounded in June but remained weighed by cost-of-living concerns.

The European Central Bank Sintra forum kicks off Monday with panels featuring top central bankers, including the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed stressed the need to protect Hormuz shipping lanes in a call with Iran’s Abbas Araqchi, as Tehran reasserted its right to control and warned Gulf states against backing the U.S. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened a 100% tariff on goods from countries imposing digital taxes on U.S. firms and said Iran foolishly fired drones at ships in Hormuz. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon after talks in Washington.

Dollar direction was also shaped by quarter-end and monthly rebalancing, with corporate and fix demand providing support. EUR/USD rose on short-covering and stronger risk assets though a long upper wick and falling monthly RSI temper the bullish daily signals. GBP/USD edged up above 1.32, aided by lower U.S. yields and easing UK fiscal risks, though upside is capped by technical resistance. USD/JPY traded in a tight range below 162, signaling potential bull exhaustion, with upside capped by intervention risk and July yen seasonality turning supportive after next week’s Q2 Tankan. AUD/USD slipped, weighed down by lower oil, softer CNH and month-end adjustments, leaving a bearish technicals in place as it nears its 0.6858 200-DMA.

Treasury yields were down as much as 3 basis points as the curve steepened. The 2s-10s curve was up about 2 basis points to +28.2bp.

The S&P 500 eased 0.10% in a choppy market.

WTI oil fell 3.8%, nearly filling an outstanding early-March price gap below $70/bbl.

Gold rose 1.08% while copper gained 0.79%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.16%, USD/JPY -0.04%, GBP/USD +0.08%, AUD/USD -0.20%, DXY -0.09%, EUR/JPY +0.11%, GBP/JPY -0.01%, AUD/JPY -0.26%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6900 after 0.6875 traded overnight, the pair slid early

• 0.6895 was neared, buyers emerged as USD, US yields

sank

• Gold, silver and copper rallied as did equities while USD/CNH fell

• AUD/USD hit 0.6917 then pulled back, the pair sat just above 0.6900 late

• The pair was trading down only -0.14% in NY's afternoon

• A daily bull hammer candle formed, daily RSI didn't confirm today's low

• Falling monthly RSI & AUD/USD's hold below the 10- & 21-DMAs are bearish
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research highlights 2 key scenarios for EUR/USD into year-end.

"We see two main scenarios for EUR/USD over the remainder of the year. In our base case, where the Fed does not follow through with rate hikes, we expect EUR/USD to move back up into the 1.1400–1.1800 range that has prevailed over the past year," MUFG notes.

"Alternatively, if the Fed delivers multiple rate hikes, EUR/USD could fall further below 1.1000. Evidence of slowing US inflation and/or a less hawkish Fed reaction function would support a weaker USD, and vice versa in the months ahead..

Looking ahead, next week’s ECB annual policy forum in Sintra should provide further insight into the extent to which monetary policy paths in Europe and the US are likely to diverge," MUFG adds.

Sterling's near-term prospects appear cautiously positive as falling UK gilt and U.S. Treasury yields along with a stabilizing UK political and fiscal environment following Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation combine to provide a modest lift to GBP/USD.

This nascent sterling bid is further reinforced by GBP/USD IMM net speculative short-covering, with traders unwinding recent sterling shorts that had surged to three-month highs amid mounting UK political and fiscal uncertainties. As sentiment shifts toward consolidation, that short-covering activity is providing additional support to sterling demand. With UK and U.S. monetary policy outlooks converging toward similar trajectories in 2026–2027, sterling has re-entered its daily Bollinger envelope spanning 1.3190–1.3552, signaling a return to equilibrium following its recent correction. There are also signs that some investors, at least, may be expecting a less hawkish Federal Reserve outlook for 2026 than others have feared.

Assuming geopolitical and domestic political stasis, bulls are likely to target the June 22 high at 1.3272 as the first line of resistance. A sustained close above the falling 10-day moving average at 1.3279 could open the way for further tests of short-term moving average resistance on the path toward the 200-day moving average and the daily cloud base situated just above 1.34. Movement beyond that level would likely require additional macro catalysts confirming the policy-convergence narrative.
GBP$ Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

 Bank of America Global Research revises its JPY medium-term view from bearish to neutral and targets USD/JPY at 156 in Q3 and 152 by year-end

"We had been structurally bearish on JPY since 2021, and since 2022 had premised our outlook on a prolonged period of JPY weakness driven by structural outflows. However, there are now signs of an improvement in structural flow dynamics. Moreover, other major currencies face their own risk factors. As a result, the medium-term outlook for JPY has improved," BofA notes.

"We are no longer bearish JPY as structural outflows moderate and hedging trends begin to shift...While USD/JPY can remain elevated near term, we prefer expressing the view through short CHF/JPY as Japanese flow dynamics gradually improve. An improving demand-supply balance for yen is the medium-term thesis but Japan's policy mix is key too. In our view, we are sufficiently close to pain thresholds in USD/JPY and JGB yields for Japan policymakers to pivot toward a more prudent fiscal/monetary stance. Apart from the BoJ continuing to hike, a key fiscal litmus test will be Japan's "Basic Policy" framework," BofA adds.

• Precious metals firmer (XAU +1.2%, XAG +2.3%) - light position-squaring after recent USD squeeze

• Reinforces the sense that near-term USD topside has run out of steam

• Risk-reward had become increasingly asymmetric, with post-FOMC USD buying looking stretched

• Initial topside resistance seen at 4136–4173 (200-hour MAs), key near-term pivot zone

• Break above opens a move towards 4373 (pre-Fed level)

• On the downside, 3960 remains first meaningful support

• Event risk ahead: Warsh at Sintra (Jul 1) and US payrolls (Jul 2) as next catalysts
USD GOLD


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Credit Agricole CIB Research maintains a bullish bias on Gold expressing this view via holding a long exposure in Gold Spot (XAU/USD) targeting a move towards $5240.

"Gold has emerged as one of the biggest victims from the USD's resurgence in 2026. The sell-off started at the onset of the war in Iran and the energy shock that followed. The surge in oil prices fuelled by demand for USD-liquidity meant that global central banks resorted to liquidating their gold reserves to satisfy their need for USD. More recently, the acceleration of the USD rally pushed XAU/USD to fresh lows," CACIB notes.

"Its latest underperformance notwithstanding, we believe that many negatives are already in the price of gold. To start with, central bank selling of gold reserves should slow down and could go into reverse in our view, if global energy prices continue to drift lower from here. In that, we believe that central banks outside of the US could continue to see XAU as a primary tool to reduce their exposure to the USD given the continuing attempts by the US to weaponise the currency. 

Furthermore, while market fears about fiscal dominance over the Fed have eased in the wake of the June FOMC meeting, we doubt that the concerns would disappear completely given that Trump could soon start his meddling into Fed policy before too long. To the extent that this results in lower US real rates, it could help XAU recover all over again," CACIB adds.

• AUD/USD hit a 2-1/2-month low of 0.6875 in Asia on broad-based USD buying

• USD/CNH rally to 6.8094 and drop in equities also helped weigh

• The USD buying abated however & selling emerged, AUD/USD rallied off the low

• Drop in US yields , rallies in gold, silver, copper helped lift AUD/USD

• The pair neared 0.6905 into NY's open, AUD/USD traded down only -0.11%

• Daily RSI didn't confirm the low, daily bull hammer formed; worries for bears

• Falling monthly RSI, AUD/USD below 10- & 21-DMAs gives bears comfort though
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD rises to 1.3226 as lower oil prices weigh on the safe-haven dollar

• 1.3226 is the highest level since Tuesday (1.3219 was Thursday high)

• Offers likely near 1.3250 (10DMA, 23.6% Fibo and June 22 high beyond)

• Cable was on 1.34 handle before Warsh-led Fed's hawkish hold last week

• Warsh taps two veteran Fed economists as advisers - WSJ

• Incoming UK PM Burnham is expected to give a speech on Monday

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/CAD topside momentum fading - break below 1.42 takes the heat out of the recent squeeze

• Spot holding sub-1.42 with broader USD offered, shifting focus back to downside levels

• 1.4140 now key - Nov 2025 high and confluence with 200-hour MAs

• Area shaping up as the near-term “face test” for the pullback and whether we see extension lower

• Clean break below opens room for follow-through, particularly if USD pressure persists

• That said, CAD not out of the woods - USMCA July 1 deadline keeps a layer of event risk in play

• Limited noise so far, but headline risk remains

• Any rhetoric around USMCA exit could see USD/CAD rip back through recent highs quickly
USDCAD hourly


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• AUD/USD holds below 0.69 following its Asian session fall to 0.6876

• 0.6876 is the lowest level since April 2 (0.6860 was the low that day)

• Drop to 0.6876 prompted by Asian stock losses (AUD is risk-sensitive)

• Nikkei closed down 4%; Kospi closed down 5.8% (having been down 9%)

• 0.69 is a former support point. There is a big 0.6900 option expiry today

• RBA's Bullock due to speak on Sunday; Kent due to speak on Monday

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY from 161.85 early Asia to 161.54 EBS into afternoon trading

• Pre-weekend spec long liquidation seen behind push away from 162.00

• Still plenty of offers ahead mostly to defend option barriers at strike

• Some Japanese exporter offers seen mixed in

• Threat of Japan FX intervention too if 162.00 looks to be breached

• This especially so with large stops eyed above, likely surge on break

• Hourly Ichimoku cloud between 161.55-69 providing cushion to downside

• Low limited to area of cloud base, more tech support at 161.21 200-HMA

• Option expiries today also supportive, total $2.7 bln 161.00-50

• Related , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 23.5 pip range thus far Friday; 1.3182-1.32055

• 1.3182 is also the low water-mark since Thursday's 1.3219 high

• Ascent to 1.3219 influenced by lower chance of July Fed hike after U.S. PCE data

• 1.3152 was Thursday's low, pre-PCE data (1.3140 was 7-month low Wednesday)

• There are large 1.3200-10 option expiries for the 10am ET NY cut

• Oil prices lower even though a cargo vessel was hit near Oman on Thursday

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10am New York/15:00 GMT on Friday June 26

• EUR/USD: 1.1325 (2.5BLN), 1.1330-40 (840M), 1.1350-55 (2.9BLN), 1.1370-75 (2.2BLN), 1.1385-90 (1.2BLN)

• 1.1400-10 (4.6BLN), 1.1420-25 (1.6BLN), 1.1450 (1.3BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8050 (180M), 0.8100 (201M). EUR/CHF: 0.9180-90 (340M), 0.9215-25 (466M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3100 (340M), 1.3200-10 (1.1BLN), 1.3245-50 (730M), 1.3300 (356M). EUR/GBP: 0.8700 (851M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6875 (517M), 0.6900 (737M), 0.6925-30 (621M), 0.6975 (361M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5625 (600M). AUD/NZD: 1.2000 (797M)

• USD/CAD: 1.4100 (270M), 1.4200 (297M)

• USD/JPY: 161.20-25 (645M), 161.50 (1.3BLN), 162.00 (352M), 162.40 (420M)

• FX options wrap - Signs of a USD top as NFP risk hits radar (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.4% Fri as commodities resume retreat in Asia

• Pair reaching for 0.6834 support, break below would accelerate slide

• Brent crude -1.7%, gold -0.7%, silver -2.7%, iron ore -0.9%

• Iraq threatening to abandon OPEC unless oil quota raised

• Fed hikes remain on the table after U.S. PCE price increase

• RBA Governor Bullock participating in Swiss panel discussion late Sun

• RBA Assistant Governor Kent speaking in Sydney early Mon

• Range Asia 0.68754-0.6914, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7089
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Australia's Zuleika Gold rise as much as 20% to A$0.036, their highest point since May 19

• The gold explorer says it will merge with CZR Resources

via recommended takeover offer for Zuleika

• Company says under the offer, Zuleika shareholders will receive 0.1742 CZR shares for each Zuleika share held

• Independent Zuleika board unanimously recommends shareholders accept the offer - ZAG

• Adds the deal values Zuleika at A$44.8 million ($30.81 million)

• ZAG down 28.3%, YTD

($1 = 1.4541 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Keshav Singh Chundawat in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY up to a fresh 161.95 EBS high overnight but no further

• Asia so far today 161.75-82, pair inching up but offers thick pre-162

• Many of offers to defend 162.00 option barriers, exporters likely in mix

• Threat of Japan FX intervention too though lack of action so far surprise

• MOF feeling effect of intervention here small in light of USD strength?

• But break above 162.00 and ensuing surge would leave USD higher still

• MOF maybe not aware of impact of option KOs, lingering after-effects

• More KOs likely up at 163.00, 164.00 and seen monster at 165.00

• Even if intervention at 165, likely downside limited to around 160.00

• Supporting likely FX action view the recent surge in JPY shorts

• Hourly Ichi kijun 161.75, likely pivot today, hourly cloud 161.55-72

• Ascending 100-HMA 161.65 and 200-HMA down at 161.17

• Option expiries today include 161.00-50 $2.7 bln, 162.00-40 $1.2 bln

• JGB-US Treasury 2-year rate differentials off some but still wide @273 bps

• Fed seen on hold in July but market increasingly eyeing September hike

• Consensus still for BOJ July hold too but many see September hike likely

• Action in Tokyo likely subdued this morning with eyed on World Cup soccer

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Fed , Fed-speak ,

• On US data , US-Iran ,
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD -0.1% Fri as losing streak extends into eighth-consecutive day

• RBNZ's hawkish rhetoric lending no support to NZD whatsoever

• Futures pricing currently imply 64.4% probability of RBNZ hike Jul 8

• Strait of Hormuz evacuation paused after Iran attacks cargo ship

• U.S. PCE prices rise as anticipated, broad USD index +0.1% Fri

• RBNZ Manager Forecasting Truong speaks Fri, Anna Breman at BIS conference

• Range NZ 0.5643-525, support 5580, resistance 0.5990-95 0.6012 0.6093
NZD Daily 55-DMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold miners rise as much as 2.6%, snapping a three consecutive session of losses

• Sub-index, however, has lost over 5% this week, set for its worst week since mid-May

• Bullion prices reversed course and rose overnight after a U.S. inflation reading came largely in line with expectations [GOL/]

• Gold miners Northern Star Resources , Evolution Mining up 1.9% and 2.1% respectively

• Sub-index has fallen 16.2% this year, including the session's moves
(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)

ANZ Research discusses its latest macro forecasts for the Australian economy.

"The Australian economy will slow over 2026 and into 2027 under the combined influence of higher interest rates, a housing market slowdown and uncertainty associated with the Middle East conflict. The slowdown in growth that we expect over 2026 and into 2027 should give the RBA comfort that inflation will ultimately ease back toward target. The most recent monthly inflation data point to Q2 2026 trimmed mean inflation at 3.7% y/y, a little below the RBA's May forecast of 3.8% y/y. That and the softening in consumer spending over recent months and the drift higher in the unemployment rate are giving us more comfort that the current 4.35% will mark the peak in the cash rate," ANZ notes.

"Inflation remains a risk though, and further tightening in monetary policy is possible if price pressures prove more persistent than expected. The more likely outcome is that the soft outlook for demand, pressure on businesses' margins and a resolution to the Middle East conflict will keep the RBA on hold in 2026 before a very modest easing cycle over the second half of 2027," ANZ adds.

(Corrects headline word order)

• AUD/USD +0.15% late Thur as commodities get slight short-term relief

• Strait of Hormuz evacuation paused after Iran fires on cargo ship

• Brent crude +1.7% post-attack as confidence in normalization effort wobbles

• U.S. PCE prices elevated, but largely in line with expectations, DXY -0.2%

• AUD drift toward 0.6834 support likely unless RBA dials up hawkish rhetoric

• RBA Governor Bullock participating in Swiss panel discussion late Sun

• RBA Assistant Governor Kent speaking in Sydney early Mon

• Overnight range 0.68871-0.6927, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7089
US Inflation Gauges


AUD Daily 55-DMA


(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar index eased from overbought levels as in-line U.S. data, quarter-end flows, and weakness in tech stocks weighed on Treasury yields. U.S. PCE inflation rose at a 4.1% annualized pace in May, its fastest in three years but broadly in line with expectations. Jobless claims held steady while price hikes from Apple and Microsoft added to inflation concerns. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said inflation is moving the wrong way, though the latest PCE report wasn’t entirely negative, with inflation clearly the main concern in the Fed’s mandate. Oil rose after a cargo vessel was hit by an unknown projectile near Oman, raising concerns over the pace of Middle East supply normalization. IMF said energy and commodity prices have fallen since the U.S.-Iran deal, though normalization in prices and Gulf trade will take time. Conflicting stances on Israeli troop withdrawals from Lebanon suggest a deal is not imminent. Iran’s top negotiator denied U.S. claims it would use unfrozen assets to buy U.S. agricultural goods. Iran estimates Strait service fees could generate about $40 billion annually for participating states, WSJ reported. EUR/USD rebounded from an oversold position above 1.13 on softer U.S. yields and a weaker dollar post-PCE, with a rising RSI and move back above its lower Bollinger supporting a constructive near-term bias. GBP/USD firmed on softer U.S. yields as hawkish Fed expectations eased, though gains were capped by equity weakness in tech and Iran-related tensions. USD/JPY held firm, printing a doji below the key 161.96 2024 high and 162 barriers, with a series of higher daily lows supporting the pair ahead of Friday’s Tokyo CPI data. AUD/USD edged up on softer U.S. yields, stronger CNH and firmer commodities, with a supportive daily RSI offset by a sub-moving average position and a weak monthly RSI limiting upside.

Treasury yields eased about 1 basis point, paring a steeper drop after the PCE data, with the 2s/10s curve rising slightly to 26.9bp

The S&P 500 was down 0.03% in choppy trade.

WTI crude oil rose 2.53%.

Gold rose 0.83% while copper was up 2.26%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.18%, USD/JPY -0.02%, GBP/USD +0.25%, AUD/USD +0.20%, DXY -0.22%, EUR/JPY +0.14%, GBP/JPY +0.25%, AUD/JPY +0.20%.(Robert Fullem)

(Corrects USD/CNH level to 6.7971)

• NY opened near 0.6895 after 0.6908 traded overnight, the pair hit 0.6889 early

• Buyers emerged however after the US May core & headline PCE reports

• US yields & USD dropped sharply after the data

• Gold & silver turned positive and USD/CNH traded down to 6.7971

• AUD/USD rallied to 0.6927 then dipped, it sat near 0.6920 late, was up +0.24%

• Rising daily RSI gives bulls comfort but falling monthly RSI is a concern

• AUD/USD's hold below the 10- & 21-DMAs are also worries for AUD/USD bulls
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)