Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the potential outcomes for the coming US elections and the related scenarios for AUD/USD.
"1. A disputed election: here we use the 2000 disputed election between Al Gore and George W Bush as a template. AUD/USD was significantly higher three months after the 2000 election, but that was only after a significant dip amidst the political uncertainty generated by the disputed outcome. The easing of this political uncertainty led to a subsequent rally in AUD/USD.
2. A blue wave: we think that Democrat control of the White House, Senate and House of Representatives would be less market -friendly than a Donald Trump presidency and would thus weaken the USD and be subsequently positive for the AUD," CACIB note.
"3. Gridlock, in the form of one of two possible outcomes: Republicans keep the White House and Senate; Democrats keep the House...This would be bad for the AUD...
Democrats take the White House and keep the House; Republicans keep the Senate: this would be a friendlier outcome for the AUD as it would again lead to a less confrontational approach to US trade with China," CACIB adds.