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May 03 - 01:55 PM

GBP/USD - COMMENT-Sterling Bulls Feast After Soft Payroll Data Affirms Dovish Fed Tack

By Paul Spirgel  —  May 03 - 10:15 AM

GBP/USD rallied on Friday to a flash intra-day high at 1.2634 after unexpectedly soft U.S. payrolls data shifted Fed rate-cut expectations back to September, which could put cable's early April peak of 1.2709 on the agenda.

The surprisingly large fall in payrolls growth highlighted Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comment on Wednesday that it is unlikely the next policy move would be a hike, which could leave traders inclined to buy sterling and unwind recent shorts.

However, it also puts the BoE's rate announcement on May 9 in focus as well as Monday's UK retail sales.

The Reuters consensus forecast is for another BoE 8-1 vote to hold rates steady.

However, Reuters forecast data does have three respondents, out of 14 sampled, forecasting a second vote to cut.

If the BoE were to follow the Fed's lead and drifts toward a more dovish rate outlook of its own, recent sterling gains are likely to unravel.

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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