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By Randolph Donney  —  Jun 29 - 02:40 PM

  • Early 137 peak on EBS amid broad USD and early energy price gains

  • The new 24-year high also right at major 137 options expiries

  • Initial bid on Fed, ECB comments nL1N2YG1C9 faded as risk came off

  • Markets worried Fed's inflation fight could end with recession

  • Tsy yields and stocks slipped, weighing on USD, helping haven yen

  • Buyers found near Tuesday's 136.38 high, early NY lows Wednesday

  • Thur's U.S. PCE, income, spending and saving the next event risk

  • Claims eyed for any unexpected upward movement

  • Close above 137 would open door 161.8% Fibo off 2021's low at 138.62

  • Next major historical hurdle is at 139.90, 140 a big target for some

  • Decent support at 10-DMA, last at 135.34, rising tenkan at 134.58

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jun 29 - 01:45 PM
  • After hitting 0.6862 in Europe AUD/USD opened NY near 0.6900

  • US$ gains against DM ccys helped pressure AUD/USD down again

  • US rates US2YT=RR lift while Fed's Powell speaks nL1N2YG1C3

  • AUD/USD neared Europe's low, low held despite USD/CNH turning +ve

  • CopperHGv1 gains, late day USD/JPY sell-off help underpin AUD/USD

  • AUD/USD techs lean bearish; pair below the 10-DMA, RSIs are falling

  • China June NBS mfg & non-mfg PMI, US May PCE are data risks Thursday

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 29 - 01:30 PM

Danske Research discusses the current market conditions and highlights the market's shift to stagflation trades.

"Yesterday, markets switched to something more well known from recent months: the inflation/stagflation trade. With EUR/USD lower, EUR/CHF down and EUR/CAD down - amid a boost to the energy sector (about +3-5%), markets appear to have shifted (yet again) from the last few days of 'peak inflation', towards the 'very mild expansion amid inflation'," Danske notes. 

 "Indeed, the capacity for rising equities appear low as optimism is quickly transferred to rising yields and commodity prices, which in return, dampen headline equities (especially those with high valuations). This stagflationary theme in markets is well in line with our view that EUR/USD might continue to be weak in the coming years as the terms of trade shock appear quite persistent," Danske adds. 

Danske Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jun 29 - 12:25 PM
  • EUR/USD rallied above the 10-DMA & hit 1.05355 on EBS, sellers emerged

  • Pair fell sharply, 50% Fib of 1.0359-1.0615 & support near 1.0470 break

  • Daily, monthly RSIs falling; implies downside momentum is in place

  • 61.8% & 76.4% Fibos of 1.0359-1.0615, June 17 daily low are next supports

  • Rally sellers likely to become aggressive as test of 1.0350 area likely

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 29 - 11:00 AM

Credit Suisse highlights its expected Q3 ranges for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, and EUR/CHF.

"Our expected EURUSD range for Q3 is 1.0000 – 1.0800, targeting the lower end for end-Q3. This continues a quarterly range downgrade we have had in place since 2021 but with a slower decline from Q2 lows already seen around 1.0340. Levels near 1.0800 represent good entry levels for fresh shorts from a quarterly risk-return perspective," CS notes. 

"For USDJPY, the ongoing test of the BOJ’s YCC commitment likely makes the Q2 range as wide as 128.00 – 145.00 depending on outcome; we expect a move above 140.00 on unchanged policy in Q3. We lower our expected GBPUSD range to 1.1700-1.2600 and look to fade the upside. We expect EURGBP to centre around 0.8700 and see EURCHF moving to 0.9700," CS adds. 

Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jun 29 - 09:55 AM
  • Cable falls to new 13-day low of 1.2110 as Powell, Bailey and Dhingra speak

  • Powell: Is there a risk we could go too far? Yes, not the biggest risk

  • See: nF9N2WY011. Powell is speaking alongside Bailey/Lagarde nL8N2YG4FP

  • New BoE policymaker Dhingra favours "very gradual" move on ratesnS8N2W30DT

  • Dhingra replaces hawk Saunders on MPC five days after Aug 4 BoE rate verdict

  • 1.2042 (June 16 low) and 1.2000 are GBP/USD support points below 1.21

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 29 - 10:00 AM

Bank of America Global Research discusses USD/JPY technical outlook and warns of a scope for a correction lower in July.

"A triangle breakout targeted 131.50 (reached), the trailing high from 2002 is in the 135s (reached), the interior trend line is approximately 140/141, the 38.2% head and shoulders target is 145.18, the peak in 1999 was in the 147s and an A=C target is 149.53. Even higher head and shoulders targets exist. MACD trend is accelerating to the upside. However, the monthly chart uptrend remains the most overbought ever, which is a technical risk," BofA notes. 

Below we show USDJPY price / RSI / MACD bearish divergences, a narrowing and flattening cloud and bearish MACD cross. Together they imply a correction/consolidation is coming due this summer, probably JulyWhat if USDJPY corrects soon? Will the daily chart start to look more like a top? For now, we can only watch and see if these bearish divergences work and if price action develops a top pattern worthy enough to refute such a strong underlying bull uptrend," BofA adds. 



BofA Global Research
By eFXdata  —  Jun 29 - 09:00 AM

MUFG Research maintains a bullish bias on the USD over the coming weeks.

"The US dollar has derived support from hawkish comments from New York Fed President Williams who reiterated that the Fed needs to lift their key policy rate to between 3.00% and 3.50% later this year, and then to between 3.50% and 4.00% next year would be “perfectly reasonably”. The comments provide some pushback against the recent pullback in Fed tightening expectations. The US rate market has pared back expectations for the terminal policy rate from close to 4.0% to around 3.5% reflecting expectations that weaker growth will limit how far the Fed will need to raise rates," MUFG notes.

"Those expectations for a dovish shift from the Fed could be disappointed in the near-term unless evidence emerges of an even sharper slowdown for the US economy based on the comments from New York Fed President Williams. It supports our view that it is premature to expect a more sustained reversal of US dollar strength at the current juncture," MUFG adds. 

MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Jun 29 - 07:25 AM
  • Yen has collapsed to 50-year low as a result of BOJ policy

  • USD/JPY collapsed as result of U.S. policy

  • Both U.S. and Japanese policies are now supporting USD/JPY

  • To correct losses since 1985 Plaza Accord USD/JPY must reach 147 minimum

  • To correct losses since 1971 USD/JPY must reach 183 minimum

  • Specs are severely underestimating USD's potential to rise nL1N2YG0RT

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jun 29 - 05:35 AM
  • A return to the lower end of its short-term daily range

  • Price contained between two Fibo retrace levels, 1.2114 and 1.2493

  • Daily momentum negative but not extending: RSI remains at neutral levels

  • On balance bearish while below converged 21-30-day moving avgs at 1.2318

  • Break below the 1.2114 Fibo to open up the 2022 1.1934 low

    For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jun 29 - 05:00 AM
  • Bulls are re-grouping and there is scope for better entry levels

  • Cross topped out at 0.8645 Tues, clearing the 0.8641 61.8% Fibo

  • The 76.4% level taken off the 0.8721-0.8511 drop is at 0.8671

  • Bullish momentum is increasing but daily RSI is diverging bearishly

  • We will continue to lean bullish while price is above daily trend support

  • The support line taken off 0.8250 Apr 14 low comes in at 0.8564 today

    For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Jun 29 - 03:45 AM
  • Euro is considered safe and risk aversion is rising nL1N2YG0E4

  • USD is considered safer and it has a growing yield advantage

  • Surge in Spanish inflation led EUR/USD to spike

  • Extremely elevated inflation is not good

  • Seeking safety makes sense as the risk of recession is rising

  • EUR may gain vs risky EM & commodity FX in period heightened risk aversion

  • EUR/USD will most likely keep falling, perhaps more slowly nL1N2YG0CO

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jun 29 - 02:35 AM
  • Month-end USD buying influenced cable's 110 pip fall from 1.2291 on Tuesday

  • Tuesday's U.S. stock losses also buoyed the safe-haven dollar nL1N2YF2HK

  • GBP/USD held above 1.2171 in Asia; 1.2175 was session low nL1N2YG050

  • 1.2171 was June 23 low (pre-UK service PMI beat). 1.2163 was June 22 low

  • Incoming BoE MPC member Dhingra to address UK TSC from 1315 GMT nL1N2YF0GN

  • Scottish government seeks independence vote in October 2023 nL8N2YF4BM

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jun 29 - 02:35 AM
  • EUR/USD's recent recovery attempts seem to have failed: bearish

  • The current slide looks set to break under the 1.0457 Fibo

  • 1.0457 Fibo is a 61.8% retrace of the 1.0359 to 1.0615 recovery move

  • A daily close under the 1.0457 Fibo would weaken spot further

  • That would lead to an eventual break under the 2022 1.0349 (EBS) low

  • We are short at 1.0550 for losses to our 1.0360 target, stop is at 1.0645

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous EUR/USD update nL1N2YF0E0

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Ewen Chew  —  Jun 29 - 02:30 AM
  • AUD/USD slips to 0.6884, dipping a toe into bearish waters

  • Bollinger downtrend channel confirmed on close below 0.6894

  • That will pave the way to channel base currently at 0.6767

  • Risk aversion from Wall St dents Asia stocks, hoists USD up

  • Focus turns to Powell's speech at ECB forum in Sintra

  • China's Jun PMIs due Thurs should show improvement nL4N2YE1N6

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jun 28 - 11:40 PM
  • AUD/USD opened -0.27% at 0.6905 after USD broadly strengthened

  • After dipping to 0.6896 it moved higher as markets in Asia settled

  • Better than expected Aus retail sales gave a small lift and high was 0.6920 nAZN09NE1W

  • Heading into the afternoon it is unchanged around 0.6905

  • AUD/USD support is at the June 14 low at 0.6850 and 2022 low at 0.6829

  • Resistance is at the 10-day MA at 0.6940 and yesterdays 0.6965 high

  • Risk aversion has returned to the market and will likely cap AUD/USD rallies

  • Key commodities holding up for now - with Dalian iron ore rising 2% today

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jun 28 - 09:45 PM
  • AUD/USD a touch higher after stronger than expected Aus retail sales nAZN09NE1W

  • It is trading above 0.6910 after trading down to 0.6896 early in the session

  • Resistance is at the 10-day MA at 0.6941 and yesterday's 0.6965 high

  • Asian equity markets are lower after Wall Street fall but E-minis steady at +0.08%

  • AUD getting some support from firm commodities with Dalian iron ore up 2.3% For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jun 28 - 07:50 PM
  • EUR/USD opens -0.58% after USD broadly strengthened on risk aversion

  • EUR/USD lost ground after ECB President Lagarde favoured "gradual" tightening nF9N2WY00V

  • EUR/USD topped out at 1.0606 - with the 55-day MA now at 1.0608

  • More resistance at the 61.8 of 1.0787/1.0359 move at 1.0623

  • EUR/USD closed below the 10-day MA (1.0536) to increase downward pressure

  • Support is at the double-bottom at 1.0470 and break targets 1.0359

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jun 28 - 07:00 PM
  • AUD/USD opens 0.27% lower after USD broadly strengthened in safe-haven flows nL1N2YF2KQ

  • AUD fall cushioned by AUD/NZD rising 0.75% and firm commodities

  • AUD/USD was supported in Europe by China easing COVID restrictions nL1N2YF06QnL1N2YF0EP

  • AUD/USD traded at 0.6965 before completing a bearish outside day

  • It is testing bids just ahead of 0.6900 with low so far at 0.6903

  • Support is at the June 14 low at 0.6850 and trend low at 0.6829

  • Resistance is at the 10-day MA at 0.6940 and break eases downward pressure

  • Aus retail sales for May out today with market looking for +0.4% M/M

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 28 - 03:00 PM

Citi's month end fixing model points to a USD buying into this month's fix.

" potential for quarter-end flows keeps us cautious in overinterpreting some of the intraday moves," Citi notes.

"As a reminder our CitiFX Quant see FX hedge rebalancing flows resulting in USD demand, with the buy-signal at 1.7 historical standard deviations, based on their preliminary estimates," Citi adds.

Citi Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jun 28 - 03:20 PM

The dollar index rose on Tuesday as the euro was weighed down by no-limits comments about support for euro zone members if they were to face an unjustified surge in borrowing costs, while a sharp equities selloff also supported the safe-haven U.S. currency.

A poor German consumer confidence report also highlighted the effects of the Ukraine war on Europe's largest economy, while U.S. data created few ripples.

ECB policymaker Pierre Wunsch said the ECB should offer limitless support without onerous conditions to euro zone members facing an unjustified surge in borrowing costs but should be careful in granting eligibility for this aid.

The dollar index rose 0.41% to 104.4, heading toward the end of Tuesday’s session just above its 10-day moving average at 104.33.

EUR/USD fell 0.5%, sliding from its NorAm open of 1.0578.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said the bank should act in a determined and sustained manner to deal with undesirably high inflation, but also in a gradual way due to uncertainties.

The gradual comment called into question the ECB’s resolve to go all-out to arrest inflation in the near-term.

USD/JPY rose 0.5%, moving back above its 10-DMA at 135.06 after several probes below it and tests of minor Fib support at 134.27.
A close above the 10-DMA puts the 2022 high at 136.71 back in focus.

GBP/USD slipped 0.61% as bulls lost resolve to test recent highs above 1.23 amid mounting post-Brexit trade uncertainties with the euro zone and the BoE’s relatively dovish rate hike path.

Support comes at 1.2170, the 50% Fib of 1.1943-1.2405 and the June 22 low at 1.2163.
A close below these levels would put the lower 30-day Bolli at 1.2057 and 2022 low at 1.1934 in focus.

Bitcoin reversed early NorAm gains, down 1.9% at $20.3k amid a dramatic late equity selloff.
ETH fell 2.7% to $1,155 amid intensifying risk-off flows

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jun 28 - 01:35 PM
  • AUD/USD hit 0.6965 in Europe, NY opened near 0.6945, pair steadily fell

  • Early equity ESv1 gains reversed & copper HGv1 gains eroded

  • US data nL1N2YF0WVnW1N2YF003 stir concerns of slower econ growth

  • Comments from Fed's Williams nL1N2YF0YA buoy US$, USD/CNH neared 6.7150

  • Soured risk drove AUD/JPY sharply off its high, pair dipped below 94.10

  • AUD/USD turned negative, neared 0.6910 late in the session

  • Techs lean bearish; RSIs falling, daily inverted hammer candle forms

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jun 28 - 01:30 PM

ING Research discusses the EUR outlook and maintains a bearish bias on EUR/USD over Q3.

"A look at rate expectations embedded in the swaps market – 150bp of tightening fully in the price by year-end – suggests that the bar for a hawkish surprise is likely set quite high, and we doubt that Sintra will be the catalyst for a significant break higher in EUR/USD," ING notes. 

"Still, a softer dollar environment could help, and stabilisation in the 1.0600-1.0650 range is possible this week, even though we see a return to 1.0500 in the remainder of 3Q as more likely," ING adds.

ING Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jun 28 - 12:15 PM
  • Recent USD/JPY drops below the 10-DMA have been short lived

  • Dip buyers emerged each time & USD/JPY could not close below the DMA

  • Today buyers emerged & bought the dip just ahead of the 10-DMA

  • A rally follows the two daily bull hammer candles from June 27 & 24

  • Daily RSI is rising after unwinding its recent overbought condition

  • Key resistance in the 136.70/137.00 zone is back in focus

  • Break of that zone could see psychological 140.00 level quickly tested

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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