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Nov 15 - 07:24 AM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-After Quietest Year On Record, EUR/USD May Excite In 2020
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 15 - 05:40 AM

EUR/USD has never been quieter, with the range traded this year the smallest on record and option vols dragged towards record lows as a result nL2N27V06X.
The quiet period could end next year, and the trigger for a break from the doldrums lies to the downside.
EUR/USD is locked into a downtrend.
Because it's quiet, EUR/USD is much more likely to sustain the trend than break it.
Inevitably that will put pressure on a big technical point.
The 76.4% retracement of the major 2016-2018 rise is 1.0863, and if it's broken that suggests the entire move from 1.0340 will be unwound.
The prospect of a sustained move in one direction equal to, perhaps greater than, this year's range should wake traders from their slumber.
The probability of a steeper decline has been boosted by a big reduction of short positions since May and economists' conviction for a rally nL3N27M3H0.

EUR/USD betting Click here

EUR/USD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 15 - 06:12 AM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-The EUR/USD Trend Is Rock Solid
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 15 - 04:50 AM

EUR/USD has been trading a range around 1.09-1.12 for a long time.
It's fallen towards the lower end of that range as the end of the year approaches when traders pare bets, so the risk of rise is high nL2N27V05H.
Traders are short and some adjustment is likely to underpin EUR/USD.
Volatility is low, meaning the range is highly unlikely to break and bets pared this year will probably be re-established next year nL2N27V065.
A EUR/USD trend is clear, with near- record-low volatility meaning the pair is being contained in tight ranges, although they are subject to a glacial decline.
That creeping fall is determined by a rate gap that pays those who are short and costs those betting on a rise.
Without a major change, EUR/USD will continue to inch down, extending the pattern of slowly descending ranges.

EUR/USD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 15 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - Rising Risk Aversion May Boost EUR/USD Back Towards 1.1200
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 15 - 02:40 AM
  • Doubts about a trade deal grow, UK election soon, possible year-end turmoil

  • Lots of reasons to expect risk aversion to rise in short-term

  • Euro is a safer asset if not much fancied but critically traders are short

  • The risk of some paring of current positions before year-end is substantial

  • Good chance this lifts EUR/USD towards peak of 1.09-1.12 (break not likely)

  • EUR/USD closed on base daily ichimoku cloud @ 1.0983 and bounced yesterday

  • Cloud twist @1.1054/57 Nov 27 likely to attracts. Bullish picture to evolve

EUR/USD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 15 - 03:48 AM
EUR/USD - Failure Under A Key Fibo Hints At A "bear Trap"
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 15 - 01:40 AM
  • Still a chance for a break and daily close below the cloud base, at 1.0983

  • However, the failure to close under 1.0994 Fibo hints at a "bear trap"

  • 1.0994 Fibo is a 61.8% of the 1.0879 to 1.1180 October rise

  • There is a risk of a recovery to the cloud top, now at 1.1064

  • Offer is at 1.1035, but will exit if there is a daily close above the cloud

  • Related comment nL2N27S0A4

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 15 - 02:36 AM
EUR/USD - Consolidate Small Gains In Quiet ASian Session
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 14 - 10:15 PM
  • EUR/USD traded in 1.1019/30 range in Asia after bullish outside day Thursday

  • Pair underpinned by EUR/JPY buying with cross gaining 0.25% in risk on Asia

  • Kudlow comments US-China deal progressing supported risk nL2N27U28F

  • EUR/USD resistance at 10-day MA at 1.1043 and break suggests bottom forming

  • A break below 1.0985 would see renewed pressure and bears back in control

  • EZ trade and inflation data today, but focus remains on US-China headlines

eur/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 15 - 01:24 AM
G10: Sentiment Cyclicality Suggests Risk-Off To Accelerate Thru Nov-29 Followed By A Reversal Thru Dec 16 - Nomura
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 14 - 02:00 PM

Nomura Research discusses a quant insight on the cyclicality of global equity sentiment to make its forecasts for cases of risk-off moves.

"We found that global equity sentiment tends to revert to the mean in roughly 22 trading days on average, while US equity sentiment tends to take around 20 trading days

For example, if global sentiment were to fall below the one-year average today (14 November), we would expect risk-off moves to accelerate through 29 November, followed by a reversal of this pessimism through 16 December (this assumes that the deterioration and recovery processes take 11 trading days each). If conditions were to change, these cyclicality forecast results would also change, of course," Nomura notes. 

"But the pattern of sentiment swings thus far shows that 2019 was typified by a repeated cycle of risk-on and risk-off phases lasting about a month," Nomura adds. 

Nomura Research/Market Commentary
Nov 15 - 12:12 AM
AUD/USD - Off Highs On Report US-China Differences Remain
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 14 - 10:00 PM
  • AUD/USD traded to 0.6798 earlier on headlines quoting WH advisor Kudlow nL2N27U28F

  • WSJ report on full speech less optimistic as stumbling blocks remain

  • Kudlow said talks constructive, but Trump not ready to sign off yet

  • AUD/USD trading around 0.6790/95 after closing NY at 0.6785

  • Support at 61.8 of 0.6670/0.6929 at validated by bounce from 0.6770

  • Break below 0.6765 would renew downward pressure

  • Resistance @ former support around 0.6810 and 38.2 of 0.6729/0.6670 @ 0.6830

aud/usd Click here

aud/usd 2 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 14 - 11:00 PM
AUD/USD - Settles Below 0.6800 After AUD/JPY Led Rally
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 14 - 09:00 PM
  • AUD/USD bounced on positive comments from WH adviser Kudlow trade talks nL2N27U28F

  • Market getting whiplash from contradictory comments from US & China

  • Move higher led by AUD/JPY, which rose 0.35%, as equities rallied

  • AUD/USD resistance at former support around 0.6810 where sellers tipped

  • More resistance at 38.2 of 0.6929/0.6770 move at 0.6830

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 14 - 09:48 PM
AUD/USD - Shorts Fatigued, Bulls May Capitalize On China News
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 14 - 07:45 PM
  • AUD/USD descent stalled at Ichimoku Cloud 0.6782 on US-China news

  • China lifts US poultry ban, Kudlow optimistic nL4N27U30InL2N27U28F

  • AUD bulls have a chance to mount counter-attack against shorts

  • Strong rally off daily Cloud would cue more short-covering ahead

  • Closing above 0.6822 would nullify Bollinger downtrend channel

  • But trendline resistnace above at 0.6843 will cap further gains

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 14 - 08:36 PM
EUR/USD - A Quick Shift Leave Pair On Familiar Turf
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 14 - 01:15 PM
  • Early bounce on US data gives some relief to longs nL2N27U0JI

  • Pair heavy on safe haven flows but holds above 61.8 Fib of 1.0879-1.1180

  • EUR/JPY & EUR/CNH sales help keep pair pinned just above day's low

  • USD/JPY & US equities sell-off sharply, EUR/USD spikes up near 1.1020

  • Daily RSI diverges & bull hammer forms, daily techs warn shorts

  • Monthly RSI still falling, says downside momentum could resume

  • Global growth concerns, soured risk could sink EUR/USD nL2N27U0TQ

chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 14 - 05:00 PM
AUD: Poor Employment Data Unlikely To Trigger Another RBA Cut Next Month - Citi
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 14 - 12:40 PM

Citi discusses its reaction to this week's weak patch of Australian employment data. 

"Australia’s unemployment rate rose back to 5.3% and the employment change number came in at 19k with most of the change being seen in full time employment (-10.3k)," Citi notes.

"Despite the poor data, our economists note that the RBA is unlikely to be spooked. - “We don’t believe today’s data will result in an RBA interest rate cut next month. Rather, we believe the RBA will give more time for the cuts to date and tax rebates to influence activity data, particularly as the RBA believes the economy is at a gentle turning point. Today’s data will however guarantee that the RBA maintains the dovish policy bias.” - Note that the RBA Board meeting will be on 3 December and this was the last major data release before then -

"The economic outlook is that “we continue to expect the next live RBA meeting to be in February 2020, by which time we expect the RBA Board to conclude that further policy stimulus is required and where we forecast the final 25bp rate cut of this cycle.” Citi adds. 

Citi Research/Market Commentary
Nov 14 - 03:48 PM
AUD/USD - Fibo Holds Risk-Off Sales For Now
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 14 - 01:15 PM
  • Downbeat AU, CN data, trade talk concerns keep pair heavy in NY nL2N27U0F4

  • Daily cloud top pierced as drop in AU yields & soured risk weigh on AUD/USD

  • Slide stalls near 61.% Fib of 0.6670-0.6929, meager bounce, near 0.6785 late

  • Pair below 55-DMA & cloud top, RSIs fall, techs say downside risks remain

  • Shift in market's central bank views is a concern for longs nL2N27U12H

  • Key US data in focus, if upbeat AUD/USD slide is likely to extend

chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 14 - 02:36 PM
USD/JPY - Yen Carry Trades In Trouble As Risks And Vols Squeeze Shorts
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 14 - 12:35 PM
  • Yen broadly bid on global trade, growth risks woes nL2N27U0PO

  • US-China trade deal peril rises on Hong Kong woes nL8N27S7TTnH9N27R01F

  • USD/JPY's breaks key props at 108.50 nL2N27U0PO, close is key

  • Daily kijun at 108.26 also in play. Nov low, weekly tenkan @ 107.89/99

  • IMM USD/JPY specs long largely above 108 are at risk on 107.89/99 break

  • Treasury yields sliding faster than JGBs, '20 Fed cuts pricing back in

  • USD/JPY's topping formation reinforced by AUD/JPY's reversal nL2N27U0VM

  • Fed speakers stick to econ's in "good place" meme, but traders dubious

  • Risk flows could change on a dime if trade deal gets completed, signed

  • Without that, data, such as U.S. retail sales Friday, will guide rates, risk

  • Record VIX shorts, 1-mo USD/JPY vols basing by July lows, RR favor shorts

Chart: Click here

Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 14 - 01:24 PM
USD/JPY: Chart: Correlation With 10Y Note Yields Suggests A Move To 104 - SocGen
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 14 - 11:15 AM
Societe Generale Research discusses USD/JPY outlook in light of its correlation with 10-years yields. SocGen maintains a structural bullish bias on JPY but likes to express this view via short EUR/JPY
"If believed that the USD/JPY correlation in the chart was set in stone, that would be enough to get USD/JPY down to around 104, which is higher than our year-ahead forecast, but still a good enough reason to stick with long yen trades. 
Japanese GDP growth slowed to 0.2% q/q saar, though that's partially offset by an upward revision to Q2 from 1.3% to 1.8%," SocGen notes. 
Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
Nov 14 - 12:12 PM
GBP/USD - To Rise 3.8% On A Tory Majority - Nomura Survey
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 14 - 10:05 AM
  • Nomura this week asked 60 clients about GBP in the week after UK election

  • Those clients expect GBP/USD to rise 3.8% if the Tories win a majority

  • A 3.8% rise would take cable close to its 2019 high of 1.3380 (March 13)

  • Nomura's clients expect GBP/USD to fall 4.4% if Labour wins a majority

  • Odds suggest 58% Tory majority chance/Labour majority risk low nL2N27U0AI

  • Reuters poll (Nov 7): GBP to rise 3% if Tories win majority nL8N27M73D

GBPUSD: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 14 - 11:00 AM
EUR/CHF: Staying Flexible; USD/CHF: Needs To Break 0.9950 To See Fresh Buyers - Credit Suisse
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 14 - 09:15 AM

Credit Suisse summarizes its tactical bias on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF.

"EURCHF has seen an aggressive sell-off last 48 trading hours with important support seen at 1.0872+1.0835+  1.0812 - 2019 low / 4 sept. staying flexible within the new broad 1.08501.0950 parameters, positioning lighter and still think we don’t break 1.0800-50 next couple weeks," CS notes. 

"USDCHF consolidation likely, patience and flexibility important, more headline driven than ever. We need to break 0.9950 to see fresh buyers," CS adds. 

Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
Nov 14 - 09:48 AM
AUD: Weak Australian Employment Reinforces RBA Easing Expectations - MUFG
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 14 - 08:28 AM

MUFG Research discusses AUD outlook and flags a scope for further downside on RBA easing expectations.

"The Australian dollar has underperformed during the Asian trading session following the release of the much weaker than expected Australian employment report for October. It has resulted in the AUD/USD rate falling back below 0.6800-level which has largely reversed the relief rally from last month triggered by building optimism over a US-China partial trade deal. The relief rally ran out steam after it failed to break above resistance from the 200-day moving average at 0.6940. It fits with our view that the Aussie remains subject to downside risks as the RBA moves closer to unconventional easing," MUFG notes. 

"The RBA is running out of room for conventional easing having already lowered their key policy rate by 75 basis points this year to 0.75%. The Australian rate market has since moved to more fully price in another 25 basis point cut early next year after today’s weak data. The latest labour market report revealed that the Australian economy shed 19k job in October which was the weakest reading since September 2016. The unemployment rate also resumed its gradual grind higher to 5.3% moving further away from the RBA’s NAIRU estimate of around 4.5%," MUFG adds. 

BTMU Research/Market Commentary
Nov 14 - 08:36 AM
Over To New York-Risk Suffers: AUD/USD, USD/JPY Take A Beating
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 14 - 07:00 AM
  • EUR/USD -0.12%, USD/JPY -0.17%, GBP/USD -0.02%, AUD/USD -0.72%

  • S&P E-minis -0.12%, DAX -0.22%, Nikkei -0.76%, FTSE -0.27%

  • EUR/USD creeps down but levels worth buying loom nL8N27U24O

  • USD/JPY hurt by U.S.-China 'snag' and close under key Fibo nL2N27U06I

  • Pound shrugs off weaker than expected UK retail sales nL2N27U07Q

  • AUD/USD falls to 4-week low on weak Aussie and China data nL2N27U07F

  • FX option expiries - Nov 14 nL2N27U05U Open nL4N27U386

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 14 - 07:24 AM
AUD/JPY - Big U.S Bank Close Long AUD/JPY, Huge Option/techs Delay Slide
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 14 - 05:25 AM
  • Huge 1.6-billion 74.00 AUD/JPY option expiry 10-am New York cut Thursday

  • Hedging activity helps contain/draw price ahead, limits deeper decline

  • AUD/JPY capped by 200-dma 75.67 last week, now tests 100-dma 73.70

  • Morgan Stanley close a recent long AUD/JPY trade recommendation

  • See high chance of JPY catching a bid as risk turns sour and poor o/n data

  • Beware close below 100/55-dma 73.70/58 and 38.2% Fib 69.97-75.67 at 73.49

  • Would open a test of the 72.97-23 daily cloud. Related nL2N27U07E

AUDJPY=: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 14 - 06:12 AM
EUR/GBP - Elicits Support From Germany's Recession Dodge
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 14 - 03:50 AM
  • Germany's recession dodge is helping to keep EUR/GBP above 0.8558

  • German economy grew 0.1% in Q3 vs -0.1% f/c, after -0.2% in Q2 nL8N27U1VD

  • 0.8558 was Tuesday's six-month low, after Tory majority probability rose

  • See: nL2N27S0DL. 0.8562 was Asian session low (0.8563 was Wednesday's low)

  • 0.8588 (Wednesday's high) and 0.8604 (Tuesday's high) are resistance levels

  • UK ONS Oct retail sales data due 0930GMT, +0.2% MM and +3.7% YY f/c

EURGBP: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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