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Dec 15 - 12:55 PM

G10: Chart: China COVID Surge Has Begun; Deaths Could Reach 1½ Million - Danske

By eFXdata  —  Dec 15 - 10:45 AM

Danske Research discusses COVID outlook in China over the coming few months. 

"With China ending the zero-covid policy we look at what to expect in terms of virus spread and when we can expect to get to 'the other side'. The analysis is based on experience from other countries and regions in Asia that moved to a 'live-with-covid' policy when Omicron became the dominating variant. We use South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong as reference points. Of course, China is different in many respects but it still serves as a good pointer," Danske notes. 

"Cases could reach 10 million per day at peak. If China follows the pattern from South Korea and Hong Kong cases will rise to around 10 million per day before falling back again. It is quite likely that this will lead to challenges to supply chains as many will be home sick during this period – and hospitals are likely to be under a lot of pressure.

Deaths could reach 1½ million. If China follows the mortality of South Korea it would lead to app. 800,000 deaths. However, with only around 1/3 of intensive care units of South Korea, mortality is likely to be higher. Following the development of Hong Kong would imply around 1½ million deaths (in line with some other studies). The number will depend on how high the vaccination rate gets among the elderly. China is targeting a vaccination rate of 90% for age group above 80 and 95% for age 65-80," Danske adds. 


Danske Research/Market Commentary


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