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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Rob Howard  —  May 18 - 04:02 AM
  • Cable hits 1.4203 after extending north from 1.4078 (Monday's low)

  • Rise to 1.4203 fuelled by across-the-board selling of the USD nL3N2N51C9

  • GBP supported by another unexpected fall in UK jobless rate nL5N2N518O

  • Bull targets include 1.4240 (Feb 24, 34-month high), 1.43 and 1.4377

  • 1.4377 was April 2018 peak (highest level since Brexit referendum)

  • 1.4177 (Asian session high) is now a support point, pre-1.4150 nL2N2N50CS

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  May 18 - 02:35 AM
  • EUR/USD 1.2153-1.2186 EBS to trade best since Feb 26

  • Feb 25 pair reached 1.2243, best since early Jan

  • Option barrier defence and corp supply likely around 1.2250

  • Top 20-day Bollingers bands is 1.2196 and slowly rising

  • Gains above top bands possible but should be short lived

  • Dip buying strategies ahead mid-bands at 1.2091 may be wise

  • Push me, pull me stimulus traps EUR/USD but it will rally nL2N2N40KZ


EURUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  May 18 - 02:28 AM
  • Last week we highlighted cheap leveraged GBP/USD call options nL1N2N10MM

  • Gave holder right to buy GBP/USD at 1.4100 in 1-month, but 1.45 KO trigger

  • Cheaper than outright GBP call, dead if 1.45 touched, suited to grind higher

  • Same option up from 44 pips to 54 pips now, but same principles apply

  • As long as 1.4500 not touched pre expiry, holder owns GBP/USD from 1.4100

  • Break-even 1.4154, only risks initial premium

  • Such options might be preferable to short term cash long with stop



For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  May 18 - 02:16 AM
  • Hedging of FX option expiries can have a big effect on FX spot

  • Typically draws spot toward strikes, adds support/resistance as expiry looms

  • Recall huge 1.2150 strike expiries contained EUR/USD pre 10-am NY cut Mon

  • Another EUR 5-billion nearby between Wednesday and Friday

  • DTCC data shows 2.3-billion Euro's between 1.2150-75 Wednesday

  • 1.7-billion between 1.2160-75 Thursday, 1-billion 1.2160-70 Friday

  • FX option prices retain a small EUR/USD bullish bias for now nL2N2N40JM

For more click on FXBUZ


EUR/USD option expiries Click here

EUR/USD 1-3 month expiry option risk reversals Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 17 - 11:39 PM

  • +0.2%, as the safe haven USD weakened with upbeat Asian stocks, Nikkei +2.1%

  • Fresh trend high in a 1.4135-1.4177 range with plenty of flow

  • Sterling is resilient, as easing lockdowns spur recovery optimism

  • UK risks Italy-style decline as economic challenges build nL5N2N42I7

  • Charts; new trend high leaves rising 5, 10 & 21 DMAs, 21 day Bolli's expand

  • Positive setup targets a test of the 1.4240 2021 high longer term

  • Bias is higher while 1.4056 rising 10 daily moving average holds


For more click on FXBUZ


gbp 2 may 18 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 17 - 09:40 PM

  • +0.3% with risk appetite into the minutes, as Asian stocks climb, Nikkei +2%

  • RBA minutes balanced, but did not provide changes for the hawks nRUAIGEHAP

  • Board does not expect these conditions to be met until 2024 at the earliest

  • No response from the AUD on the minutes, still trades up 0.3%

  • Charts, momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 daily moving averages coil

  • Setup suggests consolidation - 0.7670-0.7890 range in place since mid April

  • NY 0.7731 low and Monday's early 0.7787 high initial support resistance


For more click on FXBUZ


aud 2 may 18 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 17 - 07:47 PM

  • Steady after rising 0.3% - buoyant mood as lockdowns ease nL5N2N45JK

  • UK risks Italy-style decline as economic challenges mount nL5N2N42I7

  • Think tank makes interesting points - productivity is key to prosperity

  • Charts; bounce leaves rising 10 & 21 DMAs, while 21 day Bolli's expand

  • Positive setup targets a test of the 1.4240 2021 high longer term

  • Bias is higher while 1.3972 rising 21 daily moving average holds

  • NY 1.4078 1.4146 range is initial support and resistance

For more click on FXBUZ


gbp may 18 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 17 - 07:05 PM

  • Steady after closing a touch firmer - no significant strikes today

  • EZ yields move higher on inflationary and ECB tightening fears nL2N2N40HP

  • Global markets are nervous that the economic recovery will fuel inflation

  • U.S.-EU metals talks avert a fresh tariff hike, existing remain nL5N2N42PT

  • Charts; neutral momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs climb, positive setup

  • 21 day Bollinger bands rise - suggests the topside is again the weak one

  • 1.2188 upper 21 day Bolli band and 1.2196, 76.4% 2021 fall major resistance

  • 1.2135 NY low and yesterday's 1.2126 Asian low are initial support


    For more click on FXBUZ


eur may 18 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  May 17 - 06:55 PM
  • AUD/USD opens 0.15% lower after trading in a 0.7787 to 0.7731 range Monday

  • Dip buying persists despite Asia virus concerns and lacklustre China data

  • Upside likely to be limited as Asian stocks look poised for a muted open

  • London copper rallies 1.2% Mon, Dalian iron ore price halts slide, support

  • RBA minutes of May board meeting due Tues, commentary on QE and YCC awaited

  • Resistance 0.7790-0.7800, 0.7815-20, support 0.7745-50, 0.7730-35, 0.7700-10

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 17 - 03:00 PM

Bank of America Global Research discusses the USD outlook and maintains a core bullish view through year-end.

"The end-game we still see is a much stronger US recovery that will eventually support the USD, particularly against the EUR, where the recovery is much slower. The US is following the loosest fiscal and monetary policies ever. The US general government structural balance is at the highest deficit in recent decades. The Fed balance sheet is the largest ever. The Fed monetary policy stance according to a simple Taylor rule is extremely accommodative. If macro policies matter and all this spending is not going to waste, the US economy has to perform strongly," BofA notes. 

"Some of these policies may keep the USD weak for now, but we believe that eventually the USD will have to reflect the relative strength of the US economy," BofA adds. 

Source:
BofA Global Research
By Randolph Donney  —  May 17 - 02:51 PM

The dollar index slipped on Monday, still suffering after disappointing retail sales and employment data in recent weeks as well as a Fed campaign to quash worries over an inflation spike, which has prevented markets from pricing in rate-hike risk before 2023.

The broad dollar index has given up virtually all of the gains it made after Wednesday's sharp CPI rise.

With the Fed determined not to rush to reduce accommodation over inflation that officials believe will be transitory, markets think it could be September before they acknowledge substantial progress toward employment and average inflation goals as a trigger for discussions about tapering, a precursor to rate hikes much later on.

EUR/USD gained 0.1%, with the 1.2169 high by the May 11 post-payrolls peak at 1.21815 on EBS, which is now accompanied by the 21-day Bolli top it failed to close above last week.
Though last week's lows held the up trendline from April, techs look a little top-heavy as Wednesday's FOMC minutes, Thursday jobless claims and Friday's PMIs are awaited.

Sterling rose 0.33%, benefiting from the UK's broad pandemic reopening this week nL2N2N40AK.
GBP/USD is nearing May's 1.4167 peak, having nearly erased last Wednesday's 1.4154-050 drop in response to the surge in U.S. inflation.
The 2021 peak from February at 1.4240, the 50% Fibo of the 2014-20 drop at 1.4302 and the post-Brexit referendum recovery high from April 2018 at 1.4377 loom above.

USD/JPY fell 0.18%, with the current 109.075 low near the 109.065 daily tenkan and 50% Fibo of the rebound from the post-payrolls 108.34 low to the post-CPI high at 109.785.
A sub-109 close would target 108.34, and below there the 38.2% Fibo of 2021's rise at 107.71.

Ten-year Treasury yields have been consolidating below March's 1.775% recovery highs.

Even if Treasury and JGB yields were to stagnate, rising and much higher U.S. inflation versus minimal Japan inflation would preserve negative real rates spreads, eroding the dollar's value versus the yen nL2N2N41G1.

AUD/USD ran into kijun line resistance by the 0.7787 high, but recovered from an early risk-off slip to 0.7731 that came on concerns about possible pandemic outbreaks in Asia and a below-forecast rise in Chinese retail sales nL2N2N4032.

Bitcoin fell 5.9% to more than 3-month lows and ether slid 6.1% to its lowest since May 3, in the wake of more comments Elon Musk nL2N2N408C and broader selling of assets with huge capital gains.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  May 17 - 02:35 PM

  • Sterling led the major reserve currencies in gains today

  • UK's broad reopening this week nL2N2N40AK seen speeding economic rebound

  • High vaccination rates were already helping the pound rebound

  • GBP/USD nearing May's 1.4167 peak, nearly erased Wednesday's 1.4154-050 drop

  • That drop was in response to the surge in U.S. inflation

  • February's 1.4240 peak and 50% Fibo of 2014-20 drop at 1.4302 next hurdles

  • The post-Brexit referendum recovery high from 2018 is at 1.4377

  • Key support is at Thursday's low and April's high at 1.4008/09

For more click on FXBUZ


Chart Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  May 17 - 02:17 PM
  • EUR/USD rallies in Europe am, 1.2169 trades on EBS just ahead of NY's open

  • Prices paid component of NY Fed Empire Index rises, stokes inflation concern

  • US 10-yr yield rallies, eurodollar prices dip, US$ gets bought EUR/USD sinks

  • Overnight gains erode, pair turns negative, hits 1.2135 on EBS in NY trading

  • US$ buying fades as equities bounce & oil rallies, EUR/USD nears 1.2160 late

  • A daily doji candle forms which implies some investor indecision is present

  • Threats to EUR/USD's short-term rally are mounting nL2N2N419M

  • For more click on FXBUZ


eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 17 - 01:30 PM

Danske Research discusses EUR/USD outlook from the valuation front.

"We view fair value for EUR/USD to be a 1.08-1.20 range, depending on the model employed. Either way, at current levels, valuation is neutral if not an outright headwind for spot," Danske notes. 

"A valuation reversal (lower EUR/USD) could come from 1) rising US real rates, 2) fading EU optimism, 3) a slowdown in the (global) manufacturing sector (maybe due to bottlenecks) as well as 4) a prolonged European recovery, should the rebound prove to be weak after its initial gains have been reaped," Danske adds. 

Source:
Danske Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  May 17 - 12:17 PM
  • EUR/USD rallies to a 4-session high after trend line survives test last week

  • Near 1.2185/95 resistance; Feb 26 high, 76.4% Fib 1.2349-1.1704 sit there

  • Rally stalls though; daily doji forms, daily RSI not confirming the high

  • Daily technical signals suggest the latest bounce could be near an end

  • If longs can't break 1.2185/95 res soon rally off March low might reverse

  • For more click on FXBUZ





eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 17 - 10:45 AM

TD Research discusses its outlook for the market conditions over the coming weeks.

"We see the market's wall of worry rising a bit higher in the weeks ahead. Inflation surprises sit at cyclical highs against a backdrop of underpriced volatility and a pause in our high-frequency global mobility data. Plus, there's a clear division on how market participants think the Fed should (and will) respond to inflation," TD notes. 

"We expect the Fed to lean through the spike, though others think they need to get on with tapering and will hike sooner than expected. These uncertainties reveal a market that's unlikely to remain complacent for much longer, resulting in another test of the Fed pricing. Geopolitical flareups are also on the rise," TD adds. 

Source:
TD Bank Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  May 17 - 09:56 AM
  • GBP/USD has traded a 42 pip range thus far Monday, 1.4078-1.4120

  • If parameters hold, it will be narrowest daily range since 25 May 2020

  • Seven days ago, cable traded 174 pip range (after Scottish election result)

  • 1.4040 (Friday's Ldn am low) and 1.4000 are support points below 1.4078

  • Resistance levels beyond 1.4120 include 1.4150 and 1.4167 (May 11 high)

  • Frost: UK-EU relations will be bumpy for a time nS8N2LL02XnL5N2N419E

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 17 - 09:30 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the latest readings from its FX positioning indicator.

"According to our FX positioning gauge, the EUR was bought for most of the past week with real money investors driving most of the latest development. This makes sense, especially when considering that equity-related inflows may be among the main drivers of currency strength. Speculative-oriented investors such as hedge funds, however, have been fading currency upside," CACIB notes. 

"Those flows were sufficient for preventing the single currency from entering strongly overbought territory. From that angle, further short-term upside cannot be ruled out, at least as long as EUR-denominated risk assets continue to perform," CACIB adds. 

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 17 - 08:30 AM

MUFG Research sees a scope for further EUR upside as negative Bund yield reversing, which should help turn bonds flows more favorable for EUR. 

"The 10-year UST-Bund spread has now reversed most of the March widening that saw EUR/USD drop from around the 1.220 level. Indeed, the 10-year Bund yield advanced to just above -0.10% last week surpassing the pre-COVID highs and reached a level last recorded in May 2019. Price action certainly points to the Bund yield turning positive for the first time since early May 2019 sooner than we had assumed – a feature of euro-zone debt markets that has undermined bond inflows," MUFG notes. 

"This could mark a significant moment. Forgetting relative yield spreads, outright negative yielding 10yr bonds may be coming to an end in the euro-zone," MUFG adds. 

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  May 17 - 06:48 AM
  • Cable based a pip shy of 1.4082 (early Ldn low) after retreating from 1.4120

  • 1.4120 = highest level since Wednesday nL2N2N40E6. 1.4081 was Asia low

  • UK enters next phase of economic reopening nL2N2N40AKnL2N2N303K

  • Offers expected around 1.4150 if GBP/USD extends north (1.4154 = Weds high)

  • IMM speculators increased GBP exposure by 20% in week to May 11 nL2N2N40IT

  • 1.4167 was 10-week high on May 11 (1.4008 = subsequent low, on May 13)

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  May 17 - 05:53 AM
  • Large 0.7755/60 option expiries for the NY cut exert magnetism over AUD/USD

  • See: nL2N2N409X. 0.7745-0.7767 is AUD/USD range since the European open

  • 0.7787 was Asia high, before Asian equity losses hurt risk-sensitive AUD

  • Taiwan stocks closed down 3% nL2N2N402N. Nikkei down 0.9% nL2N2N40BS

  • China steel rebar, hot rolled coil fall for third day after hitting records

  • See: nL2N2N40DF. China retail sales growth below forecast nL2N2N403I

AUDUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  May 17 - 04:44 AM
  • Asia shares made hesitant by mixed China data, viral spread nL3N2N40VU

  • FX traders remain positioned for a dollar fall nL2N2N30G8

  • Multiple "bull traps" appear on the USD/JPY chart: bearish nL2N2N40C3

  • USD/JPY has seen a 109.15-109.50 range Monday, according to EBS prices

  • Leveraged names cap the upside, said to have offers from 109.50 upwards

  • Thickening daily Ichimoku cloud now spans the 107.59-109.81 region

  • USD/JPY, EUR/JPY 30-day log correlation under +0.5, weak relationship

Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  May 17 - 04:23 AM
  • Cross climbing with its daily cloud after May 12 hammer candle (bullish)

  • Ichimoku cloud parameters currently 0.8586-0.8671, seen as key levels

  • 50% Fibo off 0.8719-0.8562 Apr 24-May 12 drop is at 0.8641

  • 10DMA just ahead at 0.8625 and 21DMA, 0.8651 above

  • 14-day momentum remains negative and RSI neutral

  • Bulls look to May 31 above market cloud twist at 0.8625-0.8631

  • Charts point higher but price lacks momentum

    For more click on FXBUZ















EUR/GBP Trader:

EUR/GBP daily Ichimoku chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Ewen Chew  —  May 17 - 02:37 AM
  • AUD/USD slips to 0.7758, tentatively ending relief rally

  • Failure to close above Ichimoku Cloud top 0.7770 will deter bulls

  • Weakness, despite US yields slipping, warrants caution

  • Risk appetite shaken by substantial Asia stocks selloff

  • Virus resurgent in various countries spooking investors

  • China data mixed, offering scant relief for AUD nL2N2N4032

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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