MUFG Research maintains a tactical bearish bias on GBP/USD, expecting a breach of the 1.20 level in the near-term.
"We remain bearish on the pound and see increased prospects of a decline below the 1.2000 level versus the dollar. There is an increasing risk that investors view the outlook for the UK more negatively relative to elsewhere, thus encouraging increased speculative selling. The pound is the 2nd worst performing G10 currency this week..We believe the contraction in growth, reported on Wednesday, of 2.0% in Q1 and 5.8% in the month of March is consistent with full lockdown contraction of around 20%," MUFG notes.
"On top of this the UK is in the unique position of having a considerable risk on the horizon in relation to the EU trade negotiations. We see a test and breach of the 1.2000 level in GBP/USD as a likely prospect over the short-term," MUFG adds.