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May 06 - 01:55 PM

USD/CAD - Eyes Friday's Post-Payrolls Flash Low Amid More-Dovish Fed Outlook

By Paul Spirgel  —  May 06 - 11:35 AM
  • $CAD drifted lower in early NorAm, -0.2% at 1.3658; Monday range 1.3696-48

  • Lower Fed rate expectations, US-CA yield convergence provides boost for CAD

  • Post dovish Fed hold, IRPR 2024 rate view moved from -22bp to -47bp

  • LSEG's IRPR page hints BoC to cut in Jun/Jul, -65bp by Dec meeting

  • More aggressive BoC cut view will likely cap outsized CAD gain vs USD

  • $CAD supt 1.3648 Mon low, 1.3610 Friday's post-NFP flash low, 55-DMA 1.3601

  • Res 1.3696 Monday high, 1.3705 21-DMA, 1.3782/85 May 1/Apr 30 double top

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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