• Cable retains a constructive bias following Friday’s bullish outside day

• Resistance at 1.3500-10 now tested. Sustained break would expose 1.3556 (July 15 high)

• Softer U.S. jobs data has pared Fed hike expectations, weighing on the USD

• Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report is the next key directional catalyst for dollar pairs

• UK labour-market conditions appear to be stabilising, according to the latest REC/KPMG survey

• Initial support remains at 1.3390-1.3406, where the 200-day moving-average cluster sits
GBPUSD daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• Shares of Tongguan Gold Group climb 3.1% to HK$2.855, their highest level since May 12 and extending gains to a fourth straight session

• HK-listed gold miner, with current market value of $1.94 billion, expects first-half net profit to rise 49%-55% y/y to HK$510 million-HK$530 million ($65.01 million-$67.56 million), thanks to higher selling price of its products

• Excluding impact of one-off tax expense, adjusted profit attributable is expected to jump 76%-82% to HK$605 million-HK$625 million

• YTD, stock up 2%, benchmark Hang Seng Index up 1%

($1 = 7.8451 Hong Kong dollars)

(Reporting by Donny Kwok)

• USD/JPY leaps as high as 158.38 in a post-NFP relief rally

• Rebounds off a solidifying 23.6% Fibo support at 157.22

• Could soon test 158.50 ceiling of Bollinger downtrend channel

• Mon close above that resistance will nullify bearish bias

• Would inspire USD bulls to push to Ichimoku cloud at 158.92

• US yields tad heavy though, despite oil prices firming up +0.5%
JPY


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Lingbao Gold Group climb 4.7% in the fourth consecutive rising session to HK$25.2, their highest level since May 8

• China-based gold miner said exploration work of its subsidiaries in Altay Prefecture in Xinjiang has achieved phased progress with retained gold content, or mineral source, surging to 53.94 tonnes as end-June 2026 from 13.20 tonnes at end-2015

• Co says its exploration team is proceeding with drilling at full capacity and will rapidly increase the mining depth and expand production capacity within the areas covered

• YTD, stock up 37.9%, benchmark Hang Seng Index up 0.9%

(Reporting by Donny Kwok)

• USD/JPY up 0.2% in Asia, recoups most of its Fri U.S. jobs related losses

• Opened near Fri 157.80 close, rising Middle East tensions drew dip buyers

• Yemen's Houthis attack Saudi refinery and the Red Sea port city of Mocha

• U.S. crude rises 1%, gradual USD rally to 158.305 ensues

• Japan fiscal concerns, gradual BOJ tightening limit JPY gains

• BOJ's debate on faster hikes bolsters September rate move odds-July summary

• Japan intervention seen aimed at slowing USD rise, not driving JPY higher

• Investors likely to keep testing Tokyo's intervention resolve

• Japanese holiday Tue; traders wary of intervention as trading volume thins

• Resistance 158.30, 158.55-60, support 157.65-70, 156.20-30
JPY:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD flat after early spike Mon in quiet holiday impacted trading

• German trade deficit with CN widened in H1 according to weekend GTAI data

• Fed rate hike bets in retreat after Fri's unexpectedly soft U.S. jobs data

• Upbeat reports of U.S.-Iran peace progress emanating from both sides

• Wider Middle East uncertainty continues as Houthis resume attacks in Yemen

• U.S. Jul core CPI update Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.2% m/m, +2.5% y/y

• EUR will encounter resistance near 1.1620, break above will enliven bulls

• Range Asia 1.1552-80, support 1.1350-55 1.1325, resistance 1.1620-25 1.1850
EUR Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY up 0.1% in Asia after closing 0.35% lower on Friday

• Soft July U.S. jobs report, fading Fed hike bets weigh on USD

• Sep Fed hike odds fall to 44% from 55% before jobs data

• USD drops to 156.68 after data but recovers as yen bears regroup

• Japan fiscal concerns, gradual BOJ tightening limit JPY gains

• Some in BOJ saw need for faster pace of rate hikes-July meeting summary

• Investors likely to keep testing Tokyo's resolve on yen intervention

• Traders cautious ahead of Japan's Tuesday holiday as trading volume thins

• Resistance 158.10-15, 158.55-60, support 157.30-40, 156.70-80

• Friday range 156.68-158.57, Asia 157.60-158.14
JPY:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.2% Mon, trading subdued in Asia with Singapore market holiday

• No change the expected RBA meeting outcome 0430 GMT Tue, dialogue crucial

• U.S.-Iran claim peace progress but wider uncertainty continues to linger

• AU Q2 wage price index due Wed followed later by U.S. Jul inflation update

• AUD near major 0.7088 resistance, break above would enable topside extension

• Range Asia 0.7058-645 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD flat Mon in subdued trading, but remains +0.4% from Fri 1.3434 low

• Pair supported by ebbing FFR hike expectation in wake of soft U.S. jobs data

• Agency survey indicates UK jobs market showing signs of stabilisation in Jul

• U.S. Jul core CPI update Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.2% m/m, +2.5% y/y

• UK Q2 GDP due Thur, Reuters poll consensus +0.4% q/q, +1.1% y/y respectively

• GBP struggling to clear 1.3505-10, break above 1.3556 would invigorate rally

• Range Asia 1.34895-97, support 1.3274 1.3140, resistance 1.3556 1.3658
GBP Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD +0.3% from Fri 1.1518 low as DXY and UST yields grind lower

• FFR hike bets pared on softer than expected U.S. Jul NFP -23k (poll +80k)

• German industrial output (+0.2%) & exports (+0.9%) beat expectations in Jun

• Upbeat reports of U.S.-Iran peace progress emanating from both sides

• Wider Middle East uncertainty remains as Houthis resume attacks in Yemen

• U.S. Jul core CPI update Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.2% m/m, +2.5% y/y

• EUR will encounter resistance near 1.1620, break above will enliven bulls

• Range Asia 1.15565-80, support 1.1350-55 1.1325, resistance 1.1620-25 1.1850
EUR Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.6% from Fri 0.70225 low after softer than expected U.S. jobs data

• U.S. Jul non-farm payrolls -23k (poll +80k), prunes FFR hike expectations

• RBA meeting outcome 0430 GMT Tue, no change expected, dialogue critical

• Middle East uncertainty continues; Houthis resume attacks on Red Sea port

• AUD close to crucial 0.7088 resistance, break would trigger next leg higher

• Range early Asia 0.7063-645 support 0.6920, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR net spec short -58,091 contracts by Tuesday vs -72,447 previous week

• JPY net spec short increases to -45,473 from -163,412

• GBP net spec short -57,814 vs -64,814 the previous week

• AUD net spec short -33,190 vs -39,964

• MXN long 76,543 vs 72,528

• CHF short -32,822 vs -33,462

• NZD short -41,203 vs -47,668

• CAD short -179,095 vs --176,310(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1525 after 1.1518 traded overnight, sharp rally ensued

• USD, US yields dropped quickly after US July payroll data

• Gold, silver, stocks rallied & USD/CNH fell to 6.7400 to reinforce broad USD selling

• EUR/USD ended ins recent consolidation phase, hit a 1-1/2-month high of 1.1581

• The pair pulled back a bit, sat near 1.1565 late, traded up +0.34% in NY's afternoon

• Techs lean bullish; RSIs are rising and EUR/USD trades above 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs

• Investors will be focused on US July CPI and PPI due next week
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Corrects typo in line 2)

• NY opened near 0.7035 after 0.7023 traded overnight, rally extended in NY

• US July payroll report surprise sent the USD, US yields

lower

• Gold, silver added to gains, stocks rallied & USD/CNH fell to 6.7400

• AUD/USD spiked up, pierced the 50% Fib of the 0.7277-0.6877 price drop

• A 1-1/2- month high of 0.7078 traded, pair neared 0.7665 late, was up +0.52%

• Techs lean bullish; RSIs indicate upward momentum, pair above 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs

• August's monthly bull hammer candle reinforces the bullish tech signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research discusses the scope for Japan' MoF to intervene to cap USD/JPY using the Fed’s Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) Repo Facility without dumping U.S. Treasuries.

"We believe the FIMA facility can be a helpful way to avoid the funding and spread pressures associated with large, sudden sales of US Treasuries. If the Treasury recognizes that Japan would like to continue intervention to ensure credible Yen strength and wants to prevent a destabilizing force in the market, the FIMA facility can smooth the impact on the market. Crucially though, while using FIMA buys time, it does not prevent Japan's sales of US Treasuries. Eventually, the MoF will have to sell Treasuries and/or let enough securities roll off its balance sheet to fund the intervention," GS notes.

"We do not see Secretary Bessent's request that the MoF intervene using FIMA as an attempt to prevent Japan or other reserve managers from selling Treasuries. It is primarily a way to smooth the potential impacts from large-scale FX intervention, which could have disruptive effects on the Treasury market,' GS adds.

USD/JPY's rebound from its post-payrolls lows suggests bulls have not yet given up on the pair.

The pair plunged in two waves after a much weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report and intervention-related comments from Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, while prior-month figures were revised sharply lower, weighing on the dollar as expectations for further Fed tightening receded. Soon after the U.S. data, Finance Minister Katayama said in an interview that Tokyo and Washington agree the yen has been distorted by speculative carry trades and they would not hesitate to intervene again if necessary.

The timing of the interview is notable. While it coincided with the release of the weak U.S. jobs data, the comments may have been aimed at pushing back against USD/JPY's post-intervention rebound from 155.20 to above 158.00, as well as recent reports that the ECB was informed only after the U.S. carried out last week's dollar-selling, yen-buying intervention.

Nonetheless, one of the drivers behind the carry trade, strong risk appetite, appears to be helping USD/JPY rebound from its 156.68 low. Equities remain higher and U.S. 2-year Treasury yield has recovered part of its post-payrolls decline after the Fed's Thomas Barkin stressed the need to return inflation to 2% and downplayed the significance of the jobs report. As a result, next week's CPI data may prove more important for shaping Fed expectations.

USD/JPY has climbed back above 157.00 and is once again targeting the key 158.00 pivot and nearby 200-day moving average. A break above 158.56, the 38.2% retracement of the 163.99 to 155.20 decline, would bring the cloud base near 158.92 into focus and likely renew concerns among Japanese officials.

For bears, the break below the recent series of higher lows is encouraging, leaving scope for a more negative outlook if the pair closes below 157.00.
Yen


(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

ANZ Research previews next week's August RBA meeting.

"AUD OIS is pricing almost no chance of a 25bp move at next week’s RBA meeting, with around 10bp of tightening priced by November and 15bp by mid-2027. A hawkish hold is unlikely to shift pricing materially, as markets will need the next few monthly CPI prints and the Q3 CPI release in October before reassessing the policy path. The main source of surprise could be the vote split, particularly any dissent in favour of a hike, which could add modestly to hawkish pricing," BofA notes.

Given current expectations are so low, an unexpected hike would likely push AUD/USD well above 0.71– 0.7125 and establish a higher trading range, although this is not our base case. AUD/NZD touched a high of 1.20 this week, with key support around 1.19. The move was supported by a softer New Zealand unemployment print, which suggests downside is limited for now. A more hawkish-than-expected RBA next week could see the cross test near-term resistance at 1.2030–1.2060, with a break above that opening the way toward 1.21," BofA adds.

EUR/USD bulls received an important boost on Friday, although further confirmation is still needed before the pair can extend meaningfully higher. The catalyst was the U.S. July payrolls report, which suggested labor market conditions softened compared to earlier in the year. Nonfarm payrolls came in at -23,000 versus expectations of +80,000, while June's figure was revised sharply lower to 20,000 from an initially reported 50,000. Average hourly earnings also disappointed on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis, and the labor force participation rate slipped to 61.4% from June's 61.5%.

This weaker data triggered a sharp selloff in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, as traders scaled back expectations for a September Fed rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability for a 25 bps hike fell to 45% from 55% the previous day. The dollar's yield advantage over the euro narrowed, though only modestly, with U.S.-German 2-year yield spreads tightening. Together, these developments pushed EUR/USD out of its recent consolidation range and up to a near two-month high.

However, even with this bullish backdrop, EUR/USD bulls appear reluctant to fully commit ahead of next week's U.S. CPI and PPI reports, which will provide fresh insight into inflation trends. With U.S. inflation breakevens and inflation-linked swap rates already trending lower, a below-consensus CPI/PPI print could validate market pricing and lead to further reductions in Fed tightening expectations. Such an outcome would likely pressure the dollar and yields further, potentially extending EUR/USD's rally off its July lows.
eurusd


deus


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

CIBC Research reviews the US labor report for the month of July.

"July US labor market data were on balance a disappointment, notwithstanding an even lower unemployment rate. The downtick to a tight 4.1% jobless rate came despite an 87K drop in household survey employment, as the participation rate continued to decline, having already seen a a notable weakening in the prior month. Payrolls dropped 23K against consensus expectations for an 80K gain, and the miss will look even larger due to a combined 103K downward revision to the prior two months. The results for July looked somewhat better for the private sector, seeing net hiring of 30K," CIBC notes.

"The weakness showed up in government, hospitality and retailing. Hourly earnings gains were light, rising 2 cents on the month. This is still a tight labour market that’s essentially at full employment, but the lacklustre job numbers, and the weakness in labor force participation, are signposts of an underlying fragility that could allow the Fed to continue to sit on the sidelines," CIBC adds.

CIBC Research reviews today's Canadian jobs report for the month of July.

"Brisk hiring in July saw the unemployment rate tick lower again, despite a slight improvement in labour force participation. The 75K increase in employment was well above consensus forecasts (20K), with the unemployment rate of 6.4% the lowest in 2 years. Job growth was pretty evenly split between full and part time roles, and by sector was led by wholesale & retail, finance, professional services and construction. The unemployment rate edged down further for core aged (25-54) and young workers (aged 15-24), with this summer's student job market stronger than those see in the prior two years. That appears to have led to an upturn in participation for young people as well, which had been very low at the start of the year. Wage growth for permanent employees eased a little more than expected to 3.0%, from 3.7%," CIBC notes.

"Overall, this is clearly a strong report, although at 6.4% the unemployment rate is still higher than where we see full employment, and not yet at a level that will fuel domestically-driven inflation. As a result we continue to see the Bank of Canada remaining on hold this year and into the start of 2027," CIBC adds.

(Repeats with no changes)

Aug 7 (Reuters) -

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Friday 7 August

• EUR/USD: 1.1395-05 (1.1BLN), 1.1425-30 (787M), 1.1440-50 (562M)

• 1.1470-80 (500M), 1.1495-00 (1.3BLN), 1.1525-30 (337M)

• 1.1540-45 (327M), 1.1570-80 (555M), 1.1600-05 (1.7BLN)

• USD/JPY: 157.00 (657M), 157.50 (295M), 158.00 (765M)

• 158.25-35 (261M), 158.50 (362M), 159.00 (557M), 159.25-30 (620M)

• 159.50 (635M), 159.70-75 (504M), 159.96-00 (739M)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Enough uncertainty to keep ranges tight and direction limited into the w/e

• AUD/USD holding a 0.11% bid early Friday following Thursday weakness

• Levels to watch: 0.7015, 10-DMA, and 0.7052, 100-DMA

• Week's range 0.6984-0.7069: bias bullish for 0.7088 June 15 high

• Weekly long lower candle shadows are bullish: doji candles hint at indecision

• U.S. Jul non-farm payrolls (poll +80k) and unemployment (poll 4.2%) due Friday

• Middle East stability looks at risk, Brent extends gains 1.1% in Asia

• Focus turning toward next week's RBA meeting, dialogue will be critical
AUD/USD Daily Chart:


AUD/USD weekly chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Gold up from $3959/oz on Jul 17 to $4316/oz Aug 7

• USD/THB dropping 33.86-33.06 Jul 23-Aug 6

• Bearish break below 55-DMA at 33.15

• USD/THB has broken below daily cloud top at 33.09

• Traders are still betting that the baht drops

• Mexico's peso may also benefit from gold's rise

•
USDTHB


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Aug 7 (Reuters) - FX traders should be aware that EUR/JPY usually falls in August, and this could occur again in 2026.

EUR/JPY has closed down in August in 18 of the last 26 years, or 69% of the time, including in 2024 and 2025. However, seasonality needs to be combined with other factors for it to be a useful tool. The scale of the recent intervention and the risk of further action should keep the EUR/JPY bias on the downside for now.

EUR/JPY has made recovery attempts after the recent intervention-driven slump, registering a close on Wednesday at 182.49 — a Fibo 38.2% retrace of the 187.43 to 179.44 (EBS) drop. However, the 14-day momentum reading remains negative, highlighting the underlying bearish market structure. Note USD/JPY usually also drops in August, seasonal trends show. The 30- and 60-day log correlation coefficients between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are both above +0.50, meaning the two currency pairs will likely weaken in tandem.
Daily Chart


Seasonality Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)