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Nov 20 - 02:36 AM
EUR/USD - Consolidates Monday Gains In Quiet Asia
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 10:20 PM
  • EUR/USD traded in a 1.1443/58 range in quiet Asian trading
  • Risk assets remained offered in Asia as US/China trade tensions in focus
  • EUR/USD keying off US Treasury yields which were unchanged in Asia
  • Resistance at 1.1500/15, which may contain rallies - barring fresh catalyst
  • Support at 21-day MA at 1.1376 and 10-day MA ay 1.1359

eur/usd Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 20 - 01:24 AM
JPY: Short JPY-Crosses Better Risk-Off Hedge Than Short USD/JPY S/T - Barclays
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 04:00 PM

Barclays Research discusses the JPY outlook and prefers downside in JPY crosses than in USD/JPY to express a hedge for risk-off moves in the near-term.

"Shorting XXXJPY rather than USD/JPY will likely remain a more effective hedge against general risk-off moves for the time being, but a diversification from the cumulative risk in USD should gradually exert downside pressure on the USD, weakening its safe-haven status, and re-strengthen the correlation between USD/JPY and risk assets," Barclays argues. 

Barclays Research/Market Commentary
Nov 20 - 12:12 AM
USD/JPY - Consolidates Along Upward Trajectory, 112 To Hold
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 10:15 PM
  • USD/JPY bobs as Nikkei attempts recovery; US yields hold USD down
  • BOJ says no need for further QE, but no exit either
  • Still inside Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone 112.16-112.95
  • 112.00 support backed up by rising trendline now at 111.95
  • Earlier USD/AXJ bids on stocks selloff abates as US yields drop
  • US 10y teasing a further drop to 3.00% from current 3.07%

JPY: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 11:00 PM
EUR/USD - Steps Over Bullish Threshold But Limited Room Above
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 09:15 PM
  • EUR/USD broke downtrend last week, enters bullish path on EBS data
  • Positive close on Mon confirms Bollinger uptrend channel in play
  • Trajectory will turn on breach of Ichimoku Cloud resistance 1.1575
  • But failure to cross Cloud could mean swift correction lower
  • Fundamentals for USD diminish as Treasury yields under assault
  • Risk off on Wall St driving investors toward haven bonds; 10y at 3.066%

EUR: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 09:48 PM
AUD/USD - RBA Minutes Upbeat But Balanced As Expected
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 07:40 PM
  • RBA Minutes upbeat as expected, but continued to note sluggish wage growth
  • Repeated that next move in rates likely up rather than down
  • RBA Minutes unlikely to shift expectations that a change is a long way off
  • RBA starting to factor potential impacts of trade protectionism in forecast
  • AUD/USD barley moved following Minutes and is just below 0.7300

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 08:36 PM
EUR/USD - Dovish Turn In Fed Expectations Underpin
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 06:20 PM
  • Growing view Fed will be more cautious in tightening cycle supports EUR/USD
  • Break/close above 38.2 fibo of 1.1815/1.1216 at 1.1445 targets 1.1500/15
  • Nov 7 high (1.1500) 50% retracement (1.1515) and 55-day MA (1.1514)
  • Support at 21-day MA at 1.1376 and 10-day MA at 1.1360
  • EUR/USD likely to consolidate in Asia with EUR/JPY flows impacting direction

eur/usd Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 05:00 PM
AUD/USD: Evolving Bullish M/T Reversal Still En-Route To Target 0.7447 - NAB
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 03:31 PM

NAB discusses AUD/USD technical outlook and maintains flagging bullish medium-term setup targeting a move towards 0.7447. (see here)

"The weekly close three weeks ago completed a bullish multi-week candle pattern (tower bottom) while breaking and closing above the 2018 downtrend, now support below 0.7100. A likely  MT bottom confirmed," NAB notes. 

"Last week’s close above the previous correction  high at 0.7315 was the first higher high of 2018 and confirmed a break of the MT downtrend structure.

Recent bullish triggers confirm an evolving bullish  MT reversal with a minimum target at the 38.2% retracement towards 0.7447," NAB adds. 

NAB Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 03:48 PM
AUD/USD - Heavy But Bulls Don't Panic
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 01:30 PM
  • Effects of heightened Sino-US trade tensions linger in NY, pair trades heavy
  • Big drops in equity and oil markets help pressure the pair lower as well
  • Move lower is a grind though as UST yields and the greenback fall sharply
  • AU-US yield spreads tighten, spreads help temper bearish enthusiasm
  • Daily RSI need unwind of o/b condition, monthly RSI still has room to run up
  • A period of consolidation might ensue, 10-DMA & daily cloud top are support
  • RBA minutes a risk inAsia, some speculation minutes to be upbeat

chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 02:36 PM
AUD/USD - COMMENT-Yuan Inspired Pause In AUD/USD Rally May Be Short
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 12:15 PM

AUD/USD's rally off October's low paused today after hitting a new high last Friday, but bulls are likely to regroup soon.
Weakness in China's yuan, due to heightened U.S.-Sino trade tensions, is weighing on AUD/USD, which is clinging to the 23.6 percent Fib retracement of 2018's down trend.
But traders in AUD/USD longs are likely to be heartened by today's big U.S. NAHB downside, which has led 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to test support near 3.05%.
The slide in yields has tightened Australia-U.S.
spreads and eroded more of the greenback's yield advantage.
The data miss gives credence to market speculation that the Fed's rate hike path will be less aggressive than its current projections imply, which should keep the greenback heavy.
Reductions in long-U.S.
dollar and short-AUD positions will factor in, buoying AUD/USD as those positions remain extremely far from flat.
The upcoming RBA minutes might be upbeat and lift AUD/USD as recent Australian data has surprised to the topside.
As long as AUD/USD holds above key 0.7160/70 support the rally should resume and a test of the 0.7480/00 zone is likely.

chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 01:24 PM
EUR/USD: Not A Sell Around Current Levels - Credit Agricole
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 09:40 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and advises against selling the pair around current levels.

"All eyes this week will be on the EU Commission’s response to the revised Italian budget as well as preliminary November PMI releases. Any sign of a rebound in manufacturing-sector related business activity would be taken as a positive indication for the trade related capital flow situation. This has the potential to trigger further currency upside, especially as elevated speculative short positioning is keeping position squaring-related upside risks firmly intact. When it comes to Italy we believe many negatives are in the price and that implies the bar for positive surprises seems low," CACIB notes. 

"As a result to the above outlined conditions we argue against selling the single currency around the current levels," CACIB argues.

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 12:12 PM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-Fed, Dollar Misgivings Rekindle EUR/USD Rally Hopes
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 10:30 AM

EUR/USD is benefiting from nagging doubts over the Fed's ability to keep raising rates and dollar's waning momentum, but there are still some obstacles to a renewed rally. Sliding U.S. Treasury yields are tightening German-U.S.
spreads and contributing to the dollar doubts.
That's boosting EUR/USD and increasing the likelihood of testing 1.1500 resistance, with upwardly biased RSIs, with no divergence, and EUR/USD ability to continue holding above the 10- and 21-DMAs enhancing that view.
However, a break above 1.1500 might be difficult.
While tighter Italian-German spreads have helped buoy EUR/USD there is a risk they begin widening again, which could erase recent EUR/USD gains.
The EU's response to Italy's budget is expected Wednesday and an excessive deficit procedure from Brussels might begin. Italian-German spreads might widen again if BTPs come under pressure. If EUR/USD can't clear 1.1500 resistance, then the pair will probably consolidate in the 1.1200/1.1500 range until a new catalyst gains emerges.

chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 11:00 AM
EUR/USD: Supported On Dovish Shift In Fed Rhetoric But Upside Potential Likely Limited - MUFG
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 09:03 AM

MUFG Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and highlights the recent dovish shift in Fed's rhetoric which provided some support for the pair but argues that upside is likely to be limited in the near-term.

"The Fed is expected to hike rates again in December, but these more dovish comments raise the likelihood that the Fed will consider pausing rate hikes in 2019 rather than continuing to hikes rates every quarter as they have done so far this year. It is more in line with our own Fed policy expectations which supports our outlook for US dollar strength to ease from next year," MUFG notes. 

"Nevertheless, the euro is still subject to downside risks of its own which limits upside potential for EUR/USD...While Fed comments drove EUR/USD higher on Friday, the market focus this week will likely be on the EC response on Wednesday which will be negative, with the potential volatility from co-movement with the pound from Brexit developments as well. In these circumstances, it is difficult to see the euro building much on gains from late last week against the US dollar," MUFG argues. 

BTMU Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 08:36 AM
USD/JPY - Edges Down Towards Key NY Expiry After Big Clarida Drop
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 06:25 AM
  • Monday sees USD/JPY dip from 112.86 to hit 112.60 according to prices on EBS
  • Slide approaches the 112.50 NY cut expiry worth 1.0 bln
  • Also talk of bids circa 112.50. Said to be decent offers ahead of 113.00
  • Wrong-footed USD/JPY longs in for a tough week
  • USD/JPY's largest black candle since July a very ominous sign
  • Dovish talk from FOMC Vice Chair Clarida pushed US yields and USD down

EBS Flow Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 07:24 AM
AUD/USD - Remains Above 0.7300 After Clarida Shifts Goalposts
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 05:35 AM
  • AUD/USD elicited fresh support pre-0.7300 after retreating from 0.7324
  • 0.7324 = European am high. 0.7301-0.7325 was Asia range
  • Offers pre-0.7300 capped AUD/USD last Thursday/Friday--before Clarida spoke
  • Short-covering kicked in after 0.7300 vaulted on Fed's Clarida
  • 0.7338 was 11-week high pre-weekend--before US/China tension nL4N1XS007
  • Minutes from RBA's November meeting due Tuesday, before Lowe speech

AUDUSD: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 06:12 AM
USD/JPY's Largest Black Candle Since July A Very Ominous Sign
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 04:20 AM
  • USD/JPY, on Friday, formed the biggest black candlestick since July 20
  • That large black candle is a sign the underlying market is very bearish
  • Weakness will be confirmed with a daily close below the 112.46 Fibo
  • 112.46 Fibo is a 61.8% retrace of the 111.38 to 114.21 recent rise
  • That would unmask the daily cloud base, now at 112.16, for a retest
  • Recent large tail had given bulls a fighting chance

USD/JPY Trader:

Daily Fibo Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - Bet EUR/USD Tops Soon But Correction May End With A Twist
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 03:05 AM
  • EUR/USD close to completing a minimum technical correction of Sep-Nov drop
  • 38.2% retrace 1.1815-1.1216 drop is 1.1445 (50% 1.1518, Nov high 1.1500)
  • EUR/USD shorts already pared by 25% by Nov 13 ahead 1.1217-1.1421 rise
  • Need for bigger correction low, bearish factors like rates, techs are strong
  • However, Ichimoku cloud twists often attract and twist 1.1549-58 Nov 28
  • Possible shorts squeezed harder. Sustained rise over 100-DMA 1.1560 unlikely

EUR/USD daily chart Click here

EUR/USD weekly Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 03:48 AM
EUR/USD - RPT-BUZZ-IMM: Dip To New 2018 Low In EUR/USD Prompts USD Selling
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 02:05 AM

Repeat with no changes

  • EUR specs reverse course buy 9,824 contracts now short 37,019
  • Yen specs sell 13,172 contracts, raise JPY short to 102,294 contracts
  • AUD specs reduce short further bought 6,665 contract now short 59,870
  • GBP/USD specs bottom fish near lows buy 9,692 contracts now short 47,107

EUR-JPY Position Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 02:36 AM
EUR/USD - Quiet Consolidation After Early Dip
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 18 - 10:35 PM
  • EUR/USD dipped to 1.1399 in early Asia from the NY close at 1.1419
  • It has been very quiet since with the EUR/USD trapped between 1.1410/20
  • EUR/USD underpinned by subtle, dovish shift in Fed expectations
  • Price action likely to track moves in US Treasury yields
  • EUR/USD support at 21-day MA at `.`374 and 10-day MA at 1.1352
  • Resistance at 38.2 of 1.1815/1.1216 move at 1.1445

eur/usd Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 01:24 AM
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 18 - 10:29 PM

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Rebound in EUR could extend further to 1.1500.

We indicated early last Friday (16 Nov, spot at 1.1330) “downward pressure has eased” and EUR has “found a short-term bottom near 1.1215”. We expected “1.1215 to stay intact for the next one week or so” and also expected “EUR to trade sideways albeit with a positive bias within a 1.1240/1.1430 range”. What we did not expect was the strong and rapid surge in EUR during NY hours (closed at 1.1418, +0.81%). While Friday’s peak of 1.1421 was below the top of the expected 1.1240/1.1430 range at 1.1430, the price action suggests the current rebound in EUR could extend further to 1.1500 (high seen earlier this month). This is a rather strong resistance and at this stage, the prospect for a clear break above this level is not high. All in, we hold a ‘positive’ EUR view from here until there is a break of the ‘key support’ 1.1310.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Prospect of a fresh low for the year has increased. No change in view.

Volatility remains at an elevated level and the whippy price actions over the past few days offer no strong clues on the direction of the next directional move. However, the outsized decline of -1.59% yesterday (NY close of 1.2775) does suggest that the risk of a break of the 1.2662 year-to-date low has increased. All in, we expect GBP to stay pressure in the coming days unless it can move and stay above the 1.2980. Looking ahead, a break of the year-to-date low could lead to acceleration lower towards the next support at 1.2590.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Next level to focus on is at 0.7380.

The 0.7315 level that first highlighted more than a week ago (see update on 08 Nov, spot at 0.7275) was finally exceeded as AUD hit a high of 0.7338 last Friday (16 Nov). While we still prefer upward momentum to be more ‘impulsive’, the break of 0.7315 has shifted the focus to the next major resistance at 0.7380 (with a relatively strong ‘intervening’ resistance at 0.7355). On the downside, the ‘key support has moved sharply higher to 0.7220 from 0.7150 previously. On a shorter-term note, 0.7250 is already a strong support level.

NZD/USD:  Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Expect further NZD strength to 0.6900.

We indicated last Friday (16 Nov, spot at 0.6825) a “NY closing above 0.6850 would suggest further NZD strength to 0.6900”. NZD subsequently staged a surprisingly strong rise before closing at 0.6879 in NY (well above the 0.6850 level). From here, the focus is at 0.6900 and break of this level would indicate that NZD has found a mid to long-term bottom at 0.6424 last month. In other words, a break of 0.6900 would suggest the 0.6424 low would likely remain intact in the coming weeks, possibly months. Meanwhile, only a move below 0.6800 (‘key support’ previously at 0.6750) would suggest that an interim top is in place.

USD/JPY:  Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): Chance for USD to weaken further to 112.00.

We highlighted last Friday (16 Nov, spot at 113.55) “USD is to trade sideways with a downward bias”. However, the subsequent large decline of -0.70% (NY close of 112.82) is certainly more than a ‘downward bias’. The price action has resulted in a rapid increase in downward momentum and from here; we see chance for USD to weaken further to 112.00. Only a move back above the ‘key resistance’ at 113.60 would indicate that the downward pressure has eased.

UOB Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 12:12 AM
EUR/USD - Shorts Could Feel Tighter Squeeze Above 1.1427
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 18 - 10:10 PM
  • EUR/USD on verge of activating bullish chart pattern above 1.1427
  • Mon close above that level on EBS cues Bollinger uptrend channel
  • Signal to capitulate short positions could squeeze EUR/USD up to 1.1558
  • Daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone will likely cap in near term
  • But recent slump in UST yields may be bottoming; 10y at 3.06%
  • EUR/USD needs to end below 1.1312 to reinstate bearish bias

EUR: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
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