April 20 (Reuters) - Bank of England interest rate expectations, and the pound, could be impacted by UK inflation data for March, due on Wednesday at 0600 GMT. CPI is forecast to rise to 3.3% year-on-year, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Reuters, from 3.0% in January and February - before the Iran war began.

A hotter-than-expected CPI print would be a boost for hawks advocating a BoE rate rise this quarter, and might lift GBP - albeit perhaps only temporarily.

Meanwhile, a cooler-than-expected number could reduce the probability of the BoE raising rates to 4% by June or July, to the possible detriment of sterling. On Friday, hawkish BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill criticised his colleagues' "wait and see" messaging on keeping interest rates on hold while the Iran war plays out, and said tackling inflation should be the central bank's main focus - the BoE's CPI target level is 2%.

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GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

• USD/JPY downside strike demand and premium have risen notably over recent sessions

• Price action said to be driven by markets placing greater emphasis on impending BoJ rate hike risk

• Market is currently pricing just 4.28bps of hikes for April 28, 16.15bps for June 16, and 23.5bps for July 31

• Benchmark 1-month 25-delta risk reversals show JPY calls commanding a 0.9 vol premium over puts

• That's the highest downside over upside strike premium since early March - up from 0.4 early last week

• Implied volatility was capped throughout the Mid-East conflict, reflecting continued low realised volatility in familiar range

• However, the elevated JPY call premium suggests markets are not ruling out more USD/JPY losses and a pickup in implied vol
USD/JPY FXO implied volatility


USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Continuing Iran war drags EUR/USD down after peace hopes sparked rise

• EUR/USD drops from 1.1849 Friday to 1.1729 on Monday

• Overbought situation (pair rose to 1.1850 top 20-day Bollingers) unwound

• Traders have flipped back to betting on the euro rising

• Close in relation to daily cloud top at 1.1750 may determine next move

• Pair has rebounded to the cloud top following drop to Monday's low

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/14.00 GMT on Monday April 20

• EUR/USD: 1.1700 (1BLN), 1.1750 (2.6BLN), 1.1770 (463M), 1.1780-85 (1.7BLN)

• 1.1795-1.1800 (1.1BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.7800 (250M), 0.7825-30 (320M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3450 (285M), 1.3500 (1.1BLN)

• AUD/USD: 0.7125-35 (731M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5800 (456M), 0.5950 (250M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3600 (620M), 1.3620-30 (638M), 1.3770 (877M), 1.3800 (712M)

• USD/JPY: 158.55 (310M), 159.00 (308M), 160.00 (572M)(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.2% Mon after paring early U.S.-Iran war related losses

• Hormuz shuttered, Iran avoids peace talks, Trump threatens new air strikes

• AUD targeting 0.7250-85 resistance zone, but remains news captive for now

• Hawkish RBA has futures pricing in 73.9% probability of May hike

• U.S. Mar retail sales due Tue; Apr S&P flash PMIs due Thu

• Range Asia 0.7115-633, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD down 0.1% in Asia as U.S.-Iran tensions flare up over the weekend

• U.S. seizes Iranian cargo ship; Tehran vows to retaliate and rejects talks

• GBP drops to 1.3475 from 1.3510 open, finds some support at the 100-hour MA

• Drifts back to 1.3505 in nervous market; WTI jumps 6%, S& P futures -0.6%

• Failure at 1.3597 on Fri, 61.8% of Jan-Mar drop, signals more consolidation

• UK has a busy data week; flash PMIs, jobs, inflation, retail sales data due

• Asia range 1.3475-1.3513; support 1.3475, 1.3450, resistance 1.3550, 1.3600
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.5% form Mon 0.7115 low, finds support despite U.S.-Iran concerns

• Hawkish RBA continues to ensure AUD sell-offs shallow & short lived

• Futures pricing imply 71.4% probability of 25 bps May 5 RBA OCR hike

• Iran rejects peace talks, Trump threatens new air strikes, WTI +7.5%

• U.S. Mar retail sales due Tue; Apr S&P flash PMIs due Thu

• Range Asia 0.7115-633, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD down 0.3% in Asia as U.S.-Iran tensions flare up over the weekend

• U.S. seizes Iranian cargo ship, Tehran vows to retaliate and rejects talks

• GBP opened at 1.3518 from Fri close of 1.3491; Asia range 1.3475-1.3513

• Strong rejection at 1.3597, 61.8% of Jan-Mar drop signals more consolidation

• UK has a busy data week; flash PMIs, jobs, inflation, retail sales data due

• Senate Banking hearing on Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair nomination watched Tuesday

• Fri range 1.3505-1.3599; support 1.3450, 1.3430, resistance 1.3550, 1.3600
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD -0.3% Mon after U.S.-Iran confusion becomes deterioration

• Hormuz closed, Iran refuses peace talks, Trump threatens air strikes

• NZ Mar trade balance 698 mln surplus, imports 7.25 bln, exports 7.94 bln

• NZ Q1 CPI due Tue will provide critical insight for RBNZ expectations

• U.S. Mar retail sales due Tue; Apr S&P flash PMIs due Thu

• Range NZ 0.5849-81, support 0.5680 0.5580, resistance 0.5964 0.6012
NZD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.7% Mon after hitting fresh 46-month 0.72215 high on Fri

• Iran rejects peace talks, Trump renews threats to strike infrastructure

• AUD pushing lower hourly Bollinger band, slide will slow short term

• Hawkish RBA lurking, futures imply 80% chance of an RBA rate hike in May

• U.S. Mar retail sales due Tue; Apr S&P flash PMIs due Thu

• Range Asia 0.7115-633, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA


AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NY opened near 1.1795 after 1.1772 traded overnight, pair rallied in early trading

• Riskier assets rallied sharply on comments from President Trump and Iran

• Oil, USD, US yields & USD/CNH all traded lower as risk-on sentiment took hold

• Gold, silver, and stocks rallied to add to the bid for riskier assets

• EUR/USD hit a 2-monht high of 1.1849, selling then took hold as risk softened

• Comments from an Iranian source drove buying of oil, USD & firmed up yields

• Stocks, gold, silver gave back some gains as investors play it safe into the weekend

• EUR/USD erased early NY gains, sat near 1.1790, traded up only +0.07% late in the day

• Daily inverted hammer formed, daily RSI didn't confirm the high, are concerns for bulls
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP$ held a slight gain in NY session, +0.15% at 1.3550; NorAm range 1.3599-20

• Pair rallied to 1.3599 early in NorAm on upbeat Mideast news, opening of Hormuz

• Resistance held ahead of 1.3600, fourth consecutive attempt failed to breach

• Pair unwilling to consolidate gains above the daily cloud top (1.3544)

• Other markets, oil, bonds, equities maintain frothy peace-related moves

• GBP$ res 1.3599 Friday high, 1.3661 Feb 16 daily high, 1.3694 upper 30-w Bolli

• Supt 1.3542 NorAm afternoon low, 1.3505 Friday low, 1.3495- 23.6% of 1.3160-1.3599

Sterling Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Corrects typo in line 6)

• NY opened near 0.7170 after AUD/USD hit 0.7152 overnight, sharp rally then took hold

• Comments from Pres. Trump & Iran sank USD, US yields , oil

• USD/CNH turned down while gold, silver, copper and stocks attracted many buyers

• AUD/USD hit a fresh 46-month high of 0.7222, sellers emerged as USD firmed, risk softened

• Comments from an Iranian source drove investors to take some profits into the weekend

• AUD/USD sat near 0.7185 late in the day, the pair was up +0.31% in NY's afternoon

• Rising RSIs are bullish but long upper wick on daily candle may be a concern for bulls
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan Research likes EUR/GBP upside in the near-term.

"Another crisis on Starmer's hands following a Guardian article which detailed how Mandelson's failed vetting was overruled by the Foreign Office, triggering a drop in gilts and sterling. Will this be the thing that finally de-thrones Starmer? During the last saga, also regarding Mandelson's appointment, we saw very little appetite from potential challengers to take the reins of Labour ahead of the May elections," JPM notes.

"We know that political flare-ups don't weigh on the pound for long, but happy to ride EURGBP higher for now as the story is pretty fresh and adds to the list of woes the UK is facing," JPM adds.

(Updates)

• Shares of silver miners rise, tracking prices of the white metal [GOL/]

• Spot silver last up 3.8% at $81.41 per ounce

• Prices rise due to softer dollar and comments from Iran's foreign minister that passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains open during the ceasefire

• Shares of miners Hecla and Coeur both up ~5%

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver and Silvercorp Metals advance 6.6% and 4.5%, respectively

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust both inch up 4.3%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

Goldman Sachs Research updates its RBA call.

"The positive Australian macro outlook for 2026 we presented before the war in Iran continues to be undermined by the surge in fuel prices, rising interest rates, and related cost-of-living pressures. In year-over-year terms, our end-2026 forecasts for GDP and inflation stand at 1.3% yoy (down from 2.2% yoy pre-war) and 3.9%yoy (up from 3.0%yoy pre-war) respectively. The global supply shock has knocked the RBA further off its strategy to walk a benign "narrow path" that "preserves gains in the labour market"," GS notes.

"The geopolitical and macro outlook remains highly uncertain, but we now expect the RBA to raise the policy rate 25bp in May and June to 4.60% (prior: May +25bp to 4.35%), pushing our subjective estimate of the odds of a recession over the next 12 months to 25%," GS adds.

• Shares of gold miners rise, tracking prices of the bullion [GOL/]

• Spot gold up 1.2% at $4,846.28 per ounce, headed for a fourth consecutive weekly gain

• Prices rise as dollar weakens and Iran’s foreign minister says passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains open during the ceasefire

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining up 1.3% and 2.4% respectively

• U.S.-listed shares of South African miners: Gold Fields

up 4.8%, AngloGold Ashanti rises 3.6% and Harmony Gold gains 6.7%

• Canadian miner Kinross Gold gains 1.3%

(Reporting by Pranav Mathur in Bengaluru)

ANZ Research provides a summary of its views and targets for AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY.

RBC Research discusses EUR/USD near-term outlook.

"EUR/USD bottomed in the early weeks of the Iran conflict, despite the US dollar continuing to rally to a YTD high on March 30. Flows, not fundamentals, were behind the ‘early’ start to EUR/USD’s rally in March," RBC notes.

"At current spot (~1.18), we think most of the Iran conflict premium has been taken out. The near-term outlook is likely one of range-trading for EUR/USD (1.1400/50 to 1.1930), with the asymmetric risk to the upside in the medium-term," RBC adds.

• AUD/USD held a tight range overnight, traded 0.7152-0.7182, NY opened near 0.7170

• The pair was up +0.10% & held within Thursday's daily range, suggests consolidation

• Drop in oil , rally in equities , silver

helped buoy the pair

• Techs lean bullish; pair holds above daily cloud and a slew of daily MAs

• Rising monthly RSI, pair's hold above 120-month MA reinforce bullish tech signals

• Remarks from Fed's Daly, Barkin, Waller may impact risk during NY trading
AUD/USD daily chart:


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable elicited support pre-1.3500 after pound dipped on UK political news

• PM Starmer pleads ignorance over Mandelson, resists pressure to resign

• 1.3500 is a former resistance level. 1.3505 was early London three-day low

• Rally from 1.3505 topped out by 1.3540 (Wednesday's low was 1.3545)

• 1.3595 was two-month peak Thursday. Trump says Iran war should end "soon"

• Warsh confirmation hearing on April 21. UK local elections on May 7

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

EUR/USD traders may have overreacted to the recent energy shock, which pales in comparison to the surge during the war in Ukraine, when gas prices rose by 277 euros ($326.42) versus a 37-euro increase during the current Middle East conflict.

In 2022, EUR/USD slumped from around 1.15 toward 0.95 as a $9 billion net-long bet flipped to a $5 billion net-short position.

In 2026, EUR/USD fell from about 1.18 toward 1.14 as traders unwound a $27 billion long position and built a $1 billion short.

EUR/USD has since recovered the ground lost during the conflict and gas is roughly 12 euros more expensive than it was before the war.

While some additional inflation is still in the pipeline, there is significant upside potential for the euro, especially now that it has been freed from the heavy burden of prior bullish positioning.
EURUSD gas prices and euro betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

April 17 (Reuters) - The pound could take a big hit if Keir Starmer resigns as Britain's prime minister following a row over the security vetting of Peter Mandelson, his former ambassador to the United States.

Starmer on Friday faced renewed calls from his political opponents to resign after it emerged that Mandelson failed security vetting but was still allowed to take up the job. Senior minister Darren Jones told LBC that Starmer would update parliament on Monday.

The renewed controversy comes ahead of Welsh and Scottish parliament elections and local English elections on May 7, in which Starmer's Labour Party is expected to perform very poorly. The growing pressure has weighed on the pound, with GBP/USD dropping to threaten 1.35 and GBP/EUR falling to a four-day low of 1.1468 on Friday.

If Starmer were to leave Downing Street, cable could drop towards 1.30, a level it last threatened in November.
GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Although many traders have lost faith and dumped euros to build short positions, EUR/USD remains in a solid uptrend that was refreshed by the modest correction during the Middle East conflict.

Without the drag from the previously huge long positioning - which helped prevent EUR/USD from sustaining a rally above 1.20 - there is a stronger case for the uptrend to extend beyond 1.2084.

The correction that led traders to unwind a $27 billion bullish wager, the second largest on record, was small. The drop from 1.2084 to 1.1409 fell short of the 38.2% retracement of the rise from 1.0125 in February 2025 to 1.2084 in January 2026, which sits at 1.1336.

The major EUR/USD advance unfolded amid an unresolved trade war, while the smaller pullback stemmed from the Middle East conflict and has been largely reversed by the rebound to 1.1823 during a ceasefire. While the conflict is likely the key driver for traders at the moment, many have already positioned for it by going short. An escalation could deliver the decline they anticipate, but they are betting against a trend that is not only intact but also refreshed by a corrective move that may set the stage for further gains.

Absent an escalation, the EUR/USD uptrend is likely to continue and if there is peace, the pair could rise rapidly.
EURUSD and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)