• USD/JPY has seen a 159.30-159.70, on Thursday, according to EBS data

• Good chance it will climb to retest the 160 psychological level, then the 2026 160.47 peak

• Beware the 160 level is seen as authorities' line-in-the-sand for intervention

• Recent failures to close below the broken 158.49 Fibo is quite a bullish signal, it is a "bear trap"

• USD/JPY failed on four occasions in April to register a daily close below the 158.49 Fibo

• 158.49 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 152.10-160.47 2026 (EBS) rise

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is well below +0.5 (relationship broken)

Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable respects 1.3475 as safe-haven USD inches up on Iran's tightened Hormuz control

• 1.3475 was double-day low on Monday-Tuesday. 1.3480 was Asian session base

• Support points below 1.3475 include 1.3460 (100DMA) and 1.3431 (38.2% Fibo)

• UK borrowed 12.6 billion pounds in March vs 10.3 billion forecast

• UK April flash PMIs due at 0830 GMT; services index forecast at 50.0

• Mandelson scandal shatters UK PM Starmer's promise of stable government

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.3% Thur as markets revisit fears of extended energy crisis

• Strait of Hormuz remains 'effectively closed' by Iran and blockaded by U.S.

• U.S. Apr S&P PMIs & initial jobless claims (poll 210k) due Thur

• AU Apr S&P PMIs: manufacturing 51.0 (prior 49.8) services 50.3 (prior 46.3)

• 0.7250-85 resistance next AUD target, hawkish RBA a potential catalyst

• Crucial AU Q1 CPI update Sep 29 (prior +0.6% q/q, +3.6% y/y)

• Range Asia 0.7138-655, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Movements


AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Thur after unsubstantiated rumours cause -0.4%/+0.4% gyration

• Rumours of Iran air strikes negated by rumours of Iranian air defence drills

• AU Apr S&P PMIs: manufacturing 51.0 (prior 49.8) services 50.3 (prior 46.3)

• Iran seizes two ships in display of ongoing control over Strait of Hormuz

• 0.7250-85 resistance next AUD target, hawkish RBA a likely catalyst

• U.S. Apr S&P PMIs & initial jobless claims (poll 210k) due Thur

• Range Asia 0.7138-655, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD One-Minute Chart


AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/THB opens higher, extended rise in DXY and oil prices underpin

• Pair traded amid 32.17-32.28 range in NY, closed at 32.28

• Supports at 32.10, 32.0 intraday, resistance at 32.40, 32.60

• Higher gold prices may hinder gains in pair

• DXY last at 98.56, ranged 98.21-98.64 overnight

• US-Iran truce in doubt after Iran seizes two ships in the Strait of Hormuz

• Stocks end higher on ceasefire relief, Brent crude back above $100

• Related
THB

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• USD/JPY not doing a whole lot, holding at recent highs, near range top

• Asia 159.42-50 EBS so far after 159.10-58 range yesterday

• Yesterday and inside day, possible today could be too

• Market hunkering down for CB announcements next week, Japan Golden Week

• Japanese importer bids on dips, exporters on rallies towards 160.00

• Threat of Japanese FX intervention remains, likely to help cap upside

• In options, slew of expiries today below between 158.25-159.05, supportive

• Hourly Ichimoku cloud between 159.09-31 also supportive

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials also in stasis, mostly sideways

• Nikkei above 60k after TSE open, new record high, foreign buyers too

• Talk foreign players again hedging Nikkei buys with JPY sales

• Middle East news, fresh lows seen needed for current range breakout

• Related comments , , ,

• And , also , poll on Fed

• US markets , , ,
USD/JPY:


Nikkei 225:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD +0.3% from Wed 0.58885 low as traders contemplate inflation comeback

• Futures market pricing now implying 59.4% chance of May RBNZ rate hike

• Moody's lowers NZ outlook from stable to negative but affirms Aaa rating

• Iran seizes two ships, clearly demonstrating its grip on Strait of Hormuz

• Brent crude back above $100 a barrel but U.S. equities climb regardless

• NZD targeting 0.5964 resistance, break above may open door to bigger move

• U.S. Apr S&P PMIs & initial jobless claims (poll 210k) due Thur

• Range NZ 0.5903-069, support 0.5680 0.5580, resistance 0.5964 0.6012
NZD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.1% & DXY +0.2% late Wed, risk sentiment markedly resilient

• Iran demonstrates ongoing control of Strait of Hormuz, seizes two ships

• U.S. equities shrug off concern despite Brent crude back above $100 a barrel

• 0.7250-85 resistance next AUD target, break would start fresh leg higher

• AU/U.S. Apr S&P PMIs, U.S. initial jobless claims (poll 210k) all due Thur

• Overnight range 0.71465-725, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA


Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Movements

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Credit Agricole CIB Research GBP/USD outlook and maintains a cautious bias in the near-term.

"GBP/USD continues to ride on the coattails of the recent USD underperformance in place since the announcement of the ceasefire between the US and Iran. At the same time, the GBP has struggled vs most other G10 currencies since the start of April. The mixed performance reflects the impact of: (1) fading GBP rate appeal after UK rates investors started paring back their BoE rate hike expectations in recent weeks; and (2) lingering market fears about the political future of the UK PM Keir Starmer that, in turn, fanned concerns about the UK government's commitment to fiscal discipline," CACIB notes.

"While UK political risks have started to fade again, global geopolitical risks and the BOE's relative policy outlook could remain important drivers of the GBP in the near term. Uncertainty about the conflict in the Middle East has been creeping back and could intensify further, in a blow to GBP/USD," CACIB adds.

(fix spelling line 3) The dollar advanced with oil on Wednesday as investors questioned the durability of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire and after data showed another record in U.S. crude exports. Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, tightening its grip on the strategic waterway after U.S. President Donald Trump called off attacks with no sign of peace talks restarting. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said both the United Arab Emirates and the U.S. would benefit from a currency swap lines as they prevent forced liquidations, and other Gulf allies have requested similar facilities.

The dollar index briefly pushed above its 200-day moving average, but gains were tempered by subdued volatility as AI-linked shares continued their April rally and earnings underpinned Wall Street. A lingering gap from April 8 hints at further gains toward 99.50. Prime Minister Mark Carney said that Canada will not let the United States dictate the terms of the upcoming USMCA review. EUR/USD slid against a firmer dollar, pressured in part by growth worries after Italy and Germany cut growth forecasts, leaving the pair vulnerable ahead of PMI data Thursday. ECB’s Lane says it’s too early to judge whether the Iran war’s impact on the euro-zone economy will be temporary or lasting.

GBP/USD edged modestly higher on cross-flow support and a gilt-driven yield advantage, but remains pinned near trend lows with resistance from 1.3545 up to the upper Bollinger band at 1.3612 limiting upside.

AUD/USD dipped briefly before rebounding on commodity and equity strength, with supportive technicals helping keep the near-term bias mildly constructive ahead of Australia PMIs.

USD/JPY rose for a third day on higher oil and U.S. equities, with improving technicals pointing toward 160, though muted volatility and intervention risk are capping momentum.

Treasury yields were up as much as 2 basis points as the curve flattened. The 2s-10s curve was down about 1 basis point at +50.0bp.

The S&P 500 rose 0.79% fueled by tech and energy shares.

WTI oil gained 3.7%.

Gold rose 0.6%, copper rallied 2.2% and bitcoin jumped over 4%

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.29%, USD/JPY +0.05%, GBP/USD +0.03%, AUD/USD +0.11%, DXY +0.20%, EUR/JPY -0.22%, GBP/JPY +0.06%, AUD/JPY +0.18%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

(Corrects typo in headline)

• NY opened near 0.7160 after 0.7176 traded overnight, slide extended in early NY

• USD, US yield , USD/CNH gains helped drive the pair down to 0.7147

• Buyers emerged however even as USD , yields & USD/CNH traded higher

• Rallies in gold, silver, copper, stocks, AUD/JPY helped lift AUD/USD off its low

• Sharp rallies in oil did not deter AUD/UD bulls

• The pair sat near 0.7160 late in the session, it traded up +0.13% in NY's afternoon

• Rising RSIs, pair's hold above the 10-DMA and daily cloud top are bullish signals

• Australia April S&P Global mfg, services & composite PMIs are risks in Asia
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan discusses EUR/USD technical outlook.

"EUR/USD maintains a positive near-term trend bias while above 1.1625-1.1675 breakout area and cluster of nearby moving averages, but we suspect the rebound within the multi-quarter range is mostly done as it is approaching a cluster of resistance levels in the 1.18- and 1.19-handles.

Most notably, that area includes the 1.1855 March-April base pattern objective and 1.1987 September 2022 channel trend line that has contained the market during the formation of the current range since early- summer 2025. We expect material selling pressure in that zone during the springtime," JPM notes.

"On a longer-term basis, the 1.1214-1.134 area continues to mark a major support zone, which has kept a floor under the market since mid-2025. The recent EUR weakness reversed just above that zone in March," JPM adds.

• AUD/NZD (-0.15%) nudges lower but weakness is contained with no key levels giving way

• Rejection at 1.22 is notable, though the cross has held above the 55-day MAs (1.1960)

• This is key given that they have been guide the cross higher

• Rate differentials have not made a decisive move lower - keeps fundamental backdrop supportive

• In turn, upside bias stays intact with 1.22 the obvious topside target

• With AU CPI ahead and another RBA hike still live, bar is high for a sustainable AUD/NZD pullback

• Path of least resistance still leans higher into the RBA decision
AUDNZD daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

SocGen Research maintains a positive stance on EUR/USD over the coming weeks.

Sterling is likely to remain on the defensive in the near-term as it grapples with a volatile landscape defined by geopolitical instability and a hawkish shift in domestic monetary expectations.

The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, marked by uncertainty over the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, have fueled broad USD haven buying, keeping the pound under persistent downward pressure.

This bearish sentiment is compounded by mounting UK inflation and growth worries.

The resurgence in oil prices over the last week has shifted the policy narrative from potential rate cuts to necessary hikes to stall inflation. Unfortunately, those higher rates would also hurt UK economic growth, creating a drag on sterling.

While a recent decline in long-term gilt yields has provided a rare bright spot by relieving some fiscal pressure on the currency, any flare-up in Iran hostilities could offset this.

Technically, GBP/USD is struggling to maintain its footing, currently trading at 1.3493 and hovering just above the Ichimoku conversion line of 1.3491.

Immediate resistance is situated at the Monday and Tuesday high area near 1.3545, with a more significant ceiling at 1.3599, the daily high on Apr 17.

A breach of the 1.3610 upper Bollinger band would be required to neutralize the current bearish bias. On the downside, a break below the April 20 low at 1.3475 would open the way for a test of more significant support by the 200-DMA at 1.3414 and daily cloud base at 1.3408.

Current momentum strongly indicates that the path of least resistance is skewed downwards, a consequence of the prevailing geopolitical and economic stasis.
Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research discusses the the testimony 0f Kevin Warsh's  to the Senate Banking Committee in Congress yesterday. 

"His comments on balance sheet policy were perhaps a little stronger and more explicit than expected and firmly now strengthens the prospect of balance sheet shrinkage under a Warsh-led Federal Reserve...What was also interesting yesterday was the strong message on guidance. Warsh doesn’t like guidance and that spells the end of two current aspects of Fed policy," MUFG notes.

"So, both the signals from Warsh on Fed balance sheet policy and on providing forward guidance indicate to us the potential for a steeper Treasury yield curve and a weaker USD," MUFG adds.

Bank of America Global Research previews next week's BoJ April policy meeting.

"At next week's 27-28 April Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM), we expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to keep the policy rate unchanged at 0.75%.

We had previously expected the BoJ to raise the policy rate to 1.0%. But in light of recent developments, including heightened uncertainty surrounding the Middle East, we now expect a hold in April and tentatively push back our forecast for the next hike to June," BofA notes.

"However, should disruptions related to the Middle East become protracted, or should fiscal-policy debates lead to renewed instability in rates markets, that would raise the risk of a further delay to the July meeting," BofA adds.

• U.S.-listed shares of gold miners rise premarket, tracking a rise in bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold gains 0.7% to $4,755.42/ounce, after falling on Tuesday to its lowest level since April 13

• Bullion prices gain as easing market stress reduces liquidation pressure and weakens the dollar after U.S. President Donald Trump extends the Iran ceasefire, boosting riskier assets

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining up 1.9% each

• South African miners: Gold Fields , Harmony Gold

and AngloGold Ashanti up between 0.5% and 1.5%

• Canadian miners: Agnico Eagle Mines and Kinross Gold rise 2.6% each

(Reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru)

(Repeats with no changes)

April 22 (Reuters) -

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Wednesday 22 April

• EUR/USD: 1.1595-05 (1.25BLN), 1.1625 (557M), 1.1700 (518M)

• 1.1715-25 (553M), 1.1740-50 (1.1BLN), 1.1760-70 (2.23BLN), 1.1775-80 (609M)

• 1.1790-95 (1.34BLN), 1.1800-05 (2.1BLN), 1.1825-30 (362M), 1.1850 (2.54BLN)

• 1.1870-80 (909M), 1.1890-00 (405M)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of silver miners rise premarket, tracking prices of the white metal [GOL/]

• Spot silver up 1.9% to $78.15 per ounce

• Prices rise as lower oil prices, following a U.S. extension of a ceasefire with Iran, ease fears of an inflation spike and prolonged high interest rates

• Shares of miners Hecla Mining and Coeur Mining

gain ~4% each

• Canadian miner Endeavour Silver and Silvercorp Metals advance 4% and ~3% respectively

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust each advance 3.3%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD has traded a 29 pip range thus far Wednesday; 0.7147-0.7176

• Those parameters are within Tuesday's 0.7131-0.7185 range

• Trump declares ceasefire extension with peace talks in doubt

• Fed chair nominee Warsh says he made no rate-cut promises to Trump

• AUD/NZD down to 1-week low, 1.2107, as kiwi continues to benefit from NZ CPI data

• Offers pre-1.22 have capped AUD/NZD at 13-year highs through April-to-date

AUDNZD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Wednesday 22 April

• EUR/USD: 1.1595-05 (1.25BLN), 1.1625 (557M), 1.1700 (518M)

• 1.1715-25 (553M), 1.1740-50 (1.1BLN), 1.1760-70 (2.23BLN), 1.1775-80 (609M)

• 1.1790-95 (1.34BLN), 1.1800-05 (2.1BLN), 1.1825-30 (362M), 1.1850 (2.54BLN)

• 1.1870-80 (909M), 1.1890-00 (405M)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable remains on 1.35 handle after UK CPI comes in as expected; up 3.3% YY

• 1.3502-1.3533 was Asian session range. 1.3475-1.3546 was Tuesday range

• BoE is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.75% next week (April 30)

• UK PMQs at 1100-1130 GMT, as pressure increases on Starmer

• Trump declares Iran ceasefire extension with peace talks in doubt

• Fed chief nominee Warsh says he made no rate-cut promises to Trump

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY off from an early high of 159.45 to 159.11 EBS in PM Tokyo trade

• Thin markets to blame for move, maybe optimism on US-Iran talks

• Downside likely limited however with dip-buy interest still

• Japanese importers in mix though flows likely light into London fix

• Massive $4.7 bln in option expiries today on 158 likely supportive

• Spot to area of 200-HMA at 159.09, 100-HMA below at 159.00

• Ascending hourly Ichimoku cloud too between 158.56-85

• Related comment , also ,
USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)