CIBC Research reviews the October CPI report.

"Both headline and core CPI came in hotter than consensus expectation for October, solidifying the odds of a December rate hike. Total CPI grew 0.4% m/m, higher than the 0.3% expected by the consensus. Gasoline explained almost all of the slowdown in the monthly pace of headline inflation. Food inflation saw a notable pick up this month as its monthly pace increased from 0% to 0.5% in October, both food at home and restaurants accelerated. Core CPI grew 0.3% m/m, higher than the consensus expectation of 0.2%. Core goods increased 0.2% m/m, a touch below last month’s pace, the deceleration is partly due to a monthly contraction in used cars and trucks after the solid growth last month. On core services, shelter increased 0.3%, slightly slower than September due to slower growth in hotels. Transportation services posted a solid growth of 0.8%, the highest since January, driven by motor vehicles related services such as motor vehicle insurance and fees," CIBC notes.

"With both headline and core CPI firmer than expected and the upside surprise was somewhat broad-based, we think that will convince the FOMC to deliver a 25 bps hike in its upcoming December meeting," CIBC adds.

• AUD/USD hit 0.6930 overnight, sellers emerged then the pair turned lower

• Broad-based USD buying, firm US yields weighed on the pair

• Drops in gold, silver and copper also helped to weigh down AUD/USD

• 0.6909 traded in Europe, NY opened nearby, pair was down -0.21% early NY

• AUD/USD remains within Friday's daily range, suggests bounce is corrective

• Falling daily, monthly RSIs, hold below 10- & 21-DMAs add to bear signals

• US October CPI looms, if above estimate USD, US yields could rally
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Gold down from $4146/oz to $4073/oz on Tuesday

• The 55-DMA set to cross below 100-DMA - bearish

• US CPI expected 0.2% in Oct vs 0.3% mm Sep

• Range of 68 forecasts in Reuters poll is 0.1%-0.3%

• Targets for a drop: $3823, $3726, $3628, $3489, $3312

• US bond buy signal may spark short squeeze, hurt USD

•
gold sell signal and targets

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Nov 10 (Reuters) - AUD/USD may be setting up a bullish reversal after a prolonged slide, with a harami pattern taking shape.

A potential bullish harami candlestick pattern might be forming on the daily chart after a sustained AUD/USD downtrend. A large black (bearish) candle pushed price lower, and a smaller white (bullish) candle followed, opening and closing within that large body. This suggests selling pressure may be fading.

A daily close above the 0.6942 high of the large black candle would support a reversal, as would a break and close above the 0.6945 Fibonacci level, a 23.6% retrace of the 0.7238 to 0.6855 (September to November) drop. That would unmask the 0.7001 Fibonacci level, 38.2% of the same 0.7238 to 0.6855 fall.

AUD/USD held on to gains on Tuesday as a plunge in oil prices fuelled a rally in risk assets, although a string of weak survey results painted a bleak outlook of the Australian open and export-heavy economy. A break below the recent 0.6855 low would invalidate the harami pattern.
Daily Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable falls to 1.3430 intra-day low as USD rises on hawkish steer from Waller

• Fed's Waller plans to support at least a quarter-point rate rise in December

• Waller: half-point hike may be needed on Dec 9 if Oct core CPI 0.3% or higher

• US Oct CPI data is due at 1330 GMT; core CPI is forecast up 0.2% MM

• 1.3459 was early London high for GBP/USD, courtesy of lower oil prices

• UK is a net energy importer. 1.3463 was Friday high (1.3350 was Monday low)

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Oil has plunged almost $28 per barrel supporting EUR/USD

• Unlikely oil factored by traders due to speed of drop

• Euro short grew to $22 billion last week, biggest since 2015

• The plunge in oil prices should fuel short covering

• A squeeze (unwind of distressed bets) less certain

• Over 1.1336 - 38.2% Aug-Oct drop would heighten risk squeeze

• The yuan may be at heart of future FX moves

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable rises to 1.3456 as pound benefits from lower oil prices, Asian equity gains

• Nikkei up 2.87%; Kospi up 4.39% (GBP is risk-sensitive; UK is a net energy importer)

• 1.3456 is high since Friday (1.3463 was high that day). 1.3350 was Monday low

• US Oct CPI data due at 1330 GMT: 0.3% MM forecast; core CPI f/c 0.2% MM

• BoE's Lombardelli does not rule out December rate hike, she tells the Guardian

• US aircraft evacuated from second UK base due to Iran threat, WSJ reports

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/15:00 GMT on Tuesday November 10

• EUR/USD: 1.1160-70 (1.8BLN), 1.1200-05 (1.2BLN), 1.1225 (940M), 1.1240-50 (2.6BLN), 1.1300-10 (813M)

• USD/CHF: 0.8175-80 (170M), 0.8205 (160M). EUR/CHF: 0.9185 (184M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3430 (267M), 1.3485 (270M), 1.3495-1.3500 (317M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6800 (867M), 0.6900 (450M), 0.6925 (679M).

NZD/USD: 0.5620-25 (350M), 0.5675 (391M)

• AUD/NZD: 1.2200 (310M), 1.2300 (355M), 1.2400 (325M). USD/CAD: 1.4125 (432M)

• USD/JPY: 157.00 (281M), 157.35 (200M), 157.50 (286M), 157.70 (500M), 158.00 (235M), 158.35 (300M)

• EUR/JPY: 177.95-178.05 (286M)

• FX options wrap - Cautious calm, CPI risks, EUR/USD congestion (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Solstice Minerals rise as much as 9.8% to A$2.195, their highest level since October 16

• The mineral explorer says drilling at Nanadie Copper-Gold Project, loctaed in Western Australia, returned high-grade copper-gold results, supporting resource growth potential

• Stock up 424.4%, YTD, including moves in current session

(Reporting by Swetha Lakshmi in Bengaluru)

• GBP/USD unchanged in Asia after closing 0.7% higher on Monday

• Boosted by declining oil prices, surging stocks , waning AI concerns

• USD crude -0.7% in Asia as Trump downplays prospect of escalation with Iran

• Asia stocks rally as investors reassess prospects for AI trade, support GBP

• US CPI due later Tuesday, key for Fed rate expectations

• BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill, Dep Gov Clare Lombardelli due to speak on Tue

• UK Q3 and Sep GDP, industrial and manufacturing output, trade data due Thu

• Support 1.3400-10, 1.3380, 1.3350, resistance 1.3465-70, 1.3500-05

• Monday range 1.3350-1.34435, Asia 1.3434-1.3447
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD flat Tue as USD remains soft in lead up to U.S. inflation release

• U.S. Oct core CPI due Tue, Reuters poll consensus +0.2% m/m/ +2.8% y/y

• Futures pricing currently implies 83.8% chance of Fed rate hike on Dec 9

• WTI -0.7% to $86.25 a barrel as Trump continues to flag restraint on Iran

• Westpac AU Nov consumer sentiment hits a 4-year low at -2.7% (prior -4.7%)

• NAB AU Oct business confidence falls to 6-year low of -15 (prior -14 (rev.))

• AUD 0.6835-55 support zone critical, break would send pair sharply lower

• Range Asia 0.6914-29 support 0.6855 0.6835 0.6662, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Tue in Asia but remains elevated amid broader USD weakness

• Westpac AU Nov consumer sentiment hits a 4-year low at -2.7% (prior -4.7%)

• NAB AU Oct business confidence falls to 6-year low of -15 (prior -13)

• WTI -0.5% to $86.42 a barrel as Trump continues to flag restraint on Iran

• Futures pricing now implies 83.8% probability of Fed rate hike on Dec 9

• Range Asia 0.6917-29 support 0.6835 0.6662, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• From trading on 158, USD/JPY back to trading around 158.00

• Asia 157.91-158.03 EBS so far, off a notch on broadly easing USD

• Lower crude oil prices, mostly steady US yields, Wall St rally/risk on too

• Also dovish Fed Barkin-speak, December Fed hike not in bag?

• USD/JPY back into its 157.17-158.42 daily Ichimoku cloud from around top

• Spot also back into 157.93-158.26 hourly cloud after brief move below

• Resistance from 158.12 descending 100-HMA, 200-HMA in area at 157.99

• On options front, $1.4 bln in expiries today between 157.00-70

• On 158, total $1.3 bln in expiries, 159.00-50 $1.1 bln, at 156.50 $1.5 bln

• Japanese exporter sales presumed on rallies, importers at Tokyo fix

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials tad wider in 2s, steady in 10s

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On dovish Fed Barkin-speak ,

• On NY Fed survey , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries this week:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD +1.6% wtd as global risk sentiment improves post-NZ election

• NZ Prime Minister Luxon on target to retain power with reduced majority

• Preliminary election result reduces risk of RBNZ reverting to dual mandate

• NZ Oct electronic card retail sales due Thur (prior -0.4% m/m, +0.9% y/y)

• WTI -4.9% to $86.38 a barrel after Trump flagged restraint on Iran

• USD index -0.6%, while Nasdaq jumped 2.7% despite Nvidia dropping 4.6%

• Futures pricing now implies 83.8% probability of Fed rate hike on Dec 9

• Range NZ 0.56211-375, support 0.5485, resistance 0.5710 0.5995 0.6012
DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA


NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

MUFG Research discusses the USD outlook ahead of the October CPI print, due on Tuesday.

"Market participants and the Fed will be watching closely for evidence of spillover effects from higher energy prices in the latest US inflation data released this week. Recent core CPI readings have surprised to the upside over the last couple of months putting pressure on the Fed to tighten policy.

However, consensus expectations are looking for a softer core CPI print of 0.2%M/M in October. A reading that would help put a dampener on the US dollar’s upward momentum in the near-term," MUFG notes.

"The US dollar appears to be running ahead of short-term yield spreads indicating that a hawkish surprise maybe required to maintain US dollar strength," MUFG adds.

MUFG targets EUR/USD at 1.12 and USD/JPY at 155 by year-end.

• AUD/USD +1.1% from Mon 0.68561 low amid broad risk sentiment uplift

• Brent crude -5.9% to $92.49 a barrel after Trump flagged restraint on Iran

• USD index -0.6%, while Nasdaq jumped 3.1% even with Nvidia slumping 4.6%

• Futures pricing implies 81.0% probability of Fed rate hike on Dec 9

• AU Westpac consumer sentiment and NAB business confidence surveys due Tue

• Overnight range 0.6880-0.6931 support 0.6835 0.6662, resistance 0.7140
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA


DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY price action tepid despite the rebound in risk assets. Daily range = 157.85-158.52

• The 200-DMA (158.68) continues to cap. Pullbacks also remain limited at range lows

• US CPI is the next data risk, but the impact may be small with a Fed hike largely priced in 0#USDIRPR

• Softer oil and UST yields favour JPY, but the bid is muted

• In the short-run, there is little to suggest a meaningful breakout of the 156-159 range

• n the short run, there is little to suggest a meaningful breakout of the 156-159 range
USDJPY daily chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

AZN Research sees a scope for AUD/NZD to extend its upside towards 1.30 over the coming weeks.

"The RBNZ’s late-October decision to hold the OCR at 2.75% wrong-footed a market pricing a greater than 80% probability of a 25bp hike. AUD/NZD briefly traded above 1.26 in the aftermath, its highest since early 2013. The cross has since retraced to around 1.24, in line with our year-end forecast.

Our central case is that the pair remains around 1.24, but upside risks are material," ANZ notes.

"Three channels could challenge our view and bring 1.30 into focus: persistent growth divergence, a dovish repricing of the RBNZ outlook and an energy-driven terms-of-trade shock," ANZ adds.

• NY opened near 0.6900, after 0.6856 traded overnight, rally then extended

• After an early dip toward 0.6890 buyers emerged as USD & USD/CNH moved down

• Rallies in gold, silver, copper, stocks & drop in oil helped drive risk-on sentiment

• AUD/USD hit 0.6915, sat nearby late, traded up +0.84% in NY's afternoon

• Rising daily RSI, daily bull hammer candle fuel confidence for AUD/USD bulls

• Falling monthly RSI, hold below pennant base on monthly charts are concerns however

• US October CPI is a key data risk in NY's morning on Tuesday
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research previews the US October CPI report due on Tuesday.

For the October CPI report, we forecast both headline and core CPI to rise 0.2% m/m (headline 0.17% unrounded, core 0.22% unrounded, see Exhibit 2 for full details). Since the BLS was unable to publish a complete October 2025 report due to the shutdown, it is unlikely to publish y/y estimates. Using linear interpolation to fill the missing data, however, we estimate that both headline and core inflation would rise a tenth on a y/y basis. We look for the NSA headline index to print at 336.815," BofA notes.

"A 0.2% core PCE print should lock in a December hike. We think only an indisputably soft 0.1% could affect the calculus," BofA adds.

Sterling looks set to extend gains leading up to Tuesday's US CPI, with a risk-on tone -- marked by falling oil and rising AI and tech names stirring broad dollar selling -- lifting GBP/USD to a session high of 1.3426.

The rally propelled cable above its 200-DMA at 1.3416 and has been aided by softer long-end UST yields as traders brace for the inflation print, which may inform on the path of Fed policy into year-end and in 2027.

Reuters consensus looks for a slight firming, with core CPI around 2.7% year-on-year, up from a prior 2.6% — little surprise given the recent oil-led pressure as Middle East tensions lifted supply concerns and crude's price. Monday's dip undercuts that: Brent is down 4.7% at $94/bbl, well below late-October highs above $117, as traders discount US election anxieties and eye cooler inflation should the crude slide stick, which may exert further downside pressure on the US dollar.

On positioning, specs still hold sizable sterling shorts — long roughly $5bn, near 60,000 contracts short — ripe for unwinding into year-end. The specter of a hawkish BoE, given firm UK inflation expectations, plus a recent upbeat UK budget allaying fiscal concerns, likely opens the door to further short-covering after this past week's 25% drop in net IMM shorts.

Technically, bulls need a daily close above the cloud top at 1.3428 to stall bearish sentiment, then the Nov. 4-5 double top above 1.35 to target late-August highs below 1.37. A failure to hold the 200-DMA at 1.3417 and breach of the cloud top refocuses the Oct 28 low at 1.3274.
GBP Chart:

(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs on BoE rate outlook and GBP direction.

"The clear hawkish delivery at the November Bank of England meeting follows a similar refrain to other G10 central bank pivots throughout the energy shock. When the hurdle for a hike is deemed to have been met, the shift in stance and signalling is usually meaningful, with guidance towards further tightening ahead. The BoE largely followed this pattern this week, albeit with a range of views on the appropriate next steps from across the Committee," GS notes.

"Our economists see the Bank as being on track for a second hike in February, and we think that nearer-term path should do little to weigh on Sterling," GS adds.

Goldman targets GBP/USD at 1.37 by year-end.

Morgan Stanley Research previews the US CPI report due on Tuesday. 

We expect October core CPI to slow sharply to 0.19% m/m from 0.33% in September, below consensus. The moderation is concentrated in services, where we expect shelter, hotels, airfares, and education to normalize after unusually strong September readings. The health insurance reset should provide an additional drag. Core goods inflation also eases on softer car prices but remains positive amid AI-related price pressures," MS notes.

Headline CPI is also 0.19% m/m, with the NSA index at 337.020. The BLS will not publish y/y rates for this release because year-ago indexes for most categories are unavailable due to the lapse in data collection during the 2025 federal shutdown. A key question is whether September’s jump in shelter inflation was signal or noise. We think it was largely noise, amplified by unusual volatility in the Midwest, and expect housing inflation to return toward its underlying trend," MS adds.

EUR/USD has recovered from Friday's 1.1132 low and is retesting 1.1200. That puts a thick band of option strikes between 1.1200 and 1.1250 in focus.

Why the zone matters As an option expiry approaches (10 a.m. New York (1500 GMT) for G10 pairs), hedging flows typically increase. The relationship between spot and strike becomes more important to option profit and loss. If an option is likely to be exercised, the opposing party may need to buy or sell more of the underlying currency to meet its obligation. When strikes are near spot, these flows can often pull spot towards them and help contain price action until expiry. The more strikes in one area, the stronger this effect can be.

Today About €1.7 billion expires at 1.1190, just below the retest level. It is one of Monday's largest strikes and with spot nearby, hedging flows might keep the price anchored in the immediate area until the 10 a.m. New York cut.

The bigger concentration starts tomorrow Excluding Monday, about €19.8 billion of strikes fall in the 1.1200-50 zone from Tuesday to Friday. That compares with about €14.0 billion across 1.1100-1.1190 and about €9.9 billion across 1.1260-1.1340. The 1.1200-50 zone has the largest expiries on three of the four days, and the densest strikes per level over the week.

The weight within that 1.1200-50 zone builds through the week:

• Tuesday: about €4.2 billion.

• Wednesday: the heaviest day, at about €7.0 billion.

• Thursday: about €5.7 billion.

• Friday: about €2.9 billion.

Over the week, 1.1250 is the largest single strike in the zone at about €5.4 billion, followed by 1.1210 at about €3.5 billion.

What it means for the recovery Rallies into the 1.1200-50 zone may stall and dips can find support, which makes it harder for EUR/USD to build momentum through the area before the expiries roll off.

Related comments - FX options shrug off US CPI risk

Banks split on dollar: peak or pause?
EUR/USD FX option strikes expiring Nov 9-13

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)