• GBP (+0.4%) grinds higher with broader risk sentiment. Range: 1.3383/1.3456

• Pre-conflict levels at 1.3485/1.3500 is the key topside focal point

• Held through Wed's session, break here would be notable for bulls - opens up 1.36

• 200DMA (1.3416) breached on reports that Israel seeks Lebanon talks

• Aside from geo risks, eyes on U.S. CPI due Fri - risks skew towards a hot print
GBPUSD hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Morgan Stanley Research previews the US March CPI report on Friday.

"We expect core CPI to rise 0.19% m/m (2.6% y/y), slightly below February. We forecast core goods in positive territory, but likely close to the 0% mark. We think the tariff pass-through continued in March, but we also anticipate soft cars inflation and deceleration in apparel after February's strong reading. Core services decelerate due to seasonal payback and despite stronger rents and positive airfares inflation," MS notes.

"Headline comes at 0.84%m/m (3.3%y/y, NSA Index: 330.337) as higher oil boosts gasoline – this would be the highest reading since the disruption in oil markets related to the RussiaUkraine conflict in 2022," MS adds.

• EUR/GBP has traded a nine pip range since the European open; 0.8703-0.8712

• 0.8712 is also the high water-mark since Wednesday's April low of 0.8688

• Drop to 0.8688 was spurred by global stock gains on Iran ceasefire news

• Pound is risk-sensitive; euro is safer-haven. Iran truce jeopardised

• 0.8713-0.8739 was Tuesday's range (0.8740 is April high)

• Three BoE MPC members are due to speak next week; Greene, Bailey, Taylor

EURGBP


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses EUR/USD outlook amid the latest developments in the Middle East.

"The US-Iran truce announcement sent EUR/USD back above 1.17 for the first time in a month yesterday. That looked primarily like a reversal of the losses initially caused by the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, as the sharp correction in energy prices has narrowed the relative terms-of-trade shock between the Eurozone and the US. The pair paid little attention to the widening in short rate differentials, as on the day the 2Y ESTR-SOFR spread turned more negative to the tune of 20bp," CACIB notes.

"While fixed income markets may need a bit more time to adjust to that new reality on the global stage, these latest developments do not call for the EUR/USD rebound to get much more traction in the near term, even though some might be tempted to close the gap with February’s close of around 1.18," CACIB adds.

JP Morgan summarizes its technical bias on EUR/USD and NZD/USD in the very near-term.

"We would  like to see a 2 day close above 1.1673/1.1693 (50,100,200 DMAs) to technically get more excited about the topside in EURUSD," JPM notes.

"NZD was the second-best performing currency in G10 yesterday, helped by a slightly more hawkish RBNZ than expected, but also being one of those currencies that had felt the most pain since the start of the conflict, leading the relief rally. We struggle to buy the bird, but if it can build on yesterdays move and manage a 2 day close above the 100 and 200 DMAs ~ 0.5850, then we would be sympathetic to further gains," JPM adds.

• EUR/USD fell to 1.1651 overnight, buyers emerged, pair turned up on the session

• 1.1680 then traded, NY opened near 1.1675, pair was up +0.11% in early NY

• Overall US$ weakness, US yield softness helped lift EUR/USD

• EUR/JPY rally to 185.66, rally in gold also helped to underpin EUR/USD's rally

• EUR/USD gained despite rise in oil prices and a drop in equities

• The pair held near the converging 200- and 55-DMAs

• Rising daily, monthly RSIs indicate upward momentum is in place

• US weekly, continuing jobless claims are data risks in NY's morning

• Situation with Iran will continue to have the attention of investors
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD hit 0.7048 overnight, sellers emerged, the pair turned lower on the session

• 0.7023 traded, NY opened just above 0.7030, the pair traded down -0.17% in early NY

• Pair fell despite overall US$ weakness and lower US yields

• Oil , USD/CNH rallies weighed on AUD/USD as did silver, copper equity drops

• Daily RSI is falling but monthly is rising, AUD/USD above 55-DMA, daily cloud top

• Investors will continue to closely monitor situation with Iran which could impact risk

• US weekly, continuing jobless claims are data risks in NY's morning
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

April 9 (Reuters) - FX traders can use a simple option to insure against a near-term EUR/USD setback, as a technical signal points to downside risk.

EUR/USD on Wednesday soared above the 1.1667 Fibo, which is a 38.2% retrace of the 1.2084 to 1.1409 (January to March) EBS drop, but failed to close above it.

That is a potential "bull trap," set when a market breaks above a technical level but then reverses, and is usually a bearish sign. EUR/USD rallied on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. A significant breakdown in the ceasefire, which is seen as fragile, could lead to a big EUR/USD relapse.

Those who want to protect against a short-term EUR/USD slump could buy a one-week 1.1660 EUR put option at a cost of 40 pips, priced with spot at 1.1620. Profit potential is unlimited if spot is below the 1.1620 breakeven point at the April 16 expiry. Losses are limited to the 40 pips premium paid.
Daily Chart


Fenics Pricing Grid


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY climbs to consolidate below 159 as the US-Iran ceasefire deal appears to be on thin ice

• Thursday has seen a 158.53-158.95 range, so far, according to EBS data

• That after USD/JPY had on Wednesday dropped from 159.74 to 157.89, in reaction to the truce

• Spot could resume losses as there is a "cloud twist" on the daily chart circa 155.78, on April 13

• A "cloud twist" is when cloud extremes, senkou spans A and B, cross and usually exerts magnetism

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is well below +0.5

• The relationship between the two currency pairs is breaking down

• Japan Fin Min Katayama flags the impact of cross-market volatility on interest rates

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD was overbought - above peak Bollinger bands - on Wednesday

• Pair has slipped back under the 1.1658 peak of the bands on Thursday

• EUR/USD sank below the influential 200-DMA at 1.1673 on March 3

• A close back above the 200-DMA may reassert the underlying uptrend

• Gold is a great example of why it pays to respect a 200-DMA

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD has become trapped within 1.14-17 during US/Iran conflict

• In this period traders totally unwound bets they held on pair rising

• Despite huge selling the correction of a stretched rise was modest

• EUR/USD 1.2084 in Feb fell to 1.1409 in March

• A 38.2% retracement of 1.0125-1.2084 rally is 1.1336

• Uptrend intact and refreshed by correction with no longs to stop a rise

• USD's uninspiring performance during war may be followed by a drop

•
EURUSD and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australian copper miners fall, while the broader benchmark trades little changed

• Copper prices slip from a three-week peak as renewed Middle East tensions cast doubt on whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire would hold, reviving concerns over the global growth outlook [MET/L]

• Canada-based miner Capstone Copper's ASX-listed shares

fall as much as 4.2% to A$11.93, post their biggest intraday pct loss since March 27

• Sandfire Resources falls as much as 5.4% to A$17.16, on track for its biggest one-day decline since March 23

• Miner also flags FY26 copper equivalent production to be at lower end of forecast range

(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Australia's Vertex Minerals rise as much as 6.1% to A$0.175, post their biggest intraday pct gain since April 2

• Gold miner posts March gold production of 121oz, up from 84oz produced in February

• Logs March gold sales of 89oz, up from 85oz sold in Feb

• Stock down 27.7% YTD

(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Australia's Alkane Resources rise as much as 4.1% to A$1.79, their highest level since May 19, 2025

• Stock posts its biggest intraday pct gain since July 2, 2025

• The gold-antimony producer posts March-quarter gold production of 44,669oz, up from 17,656oz last year

• Stock up 32.9% YTD, including day's moves

(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD -0.15% Thur amid waning excitement over U.S.-Iran peace progress

• Ceasefire appears fragile, Iran cites multiple violations of U.S. agreement

• AUD set up potential run towards 0.71875 ytd high but needs fresh momentum

• Fed's Mar meeting minutes reveal growing receptivity to potential FFR hikes

• U.S. Feb core PCE (poll +0.4% m/m) & Q4 GDP (poll +0.7% q/q) due Thur

• Range Asia 0.7030-48, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7188 0.7282
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• News of the two-week Middle East conflict had only limited impact yesterday

• Caution reigns with only a few ships passing through the Hormuz Strait

• Israel's continuing attacks on Lebanon could push Iran to abrogate any deal

• Crude oil prices below $100/brl but still relatively pricey

• USD upside contained by maybe more dovish FOMC as minutes suggest

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials narrower still, more to come?

• USD/JPY to 157.89 EBS before bouncing, Asia 158.53-67 so far in Asia

• Consolidation on 158 ahead of fresh Middle East news, moves in crude prices?

• Range for now maybe defined by hourly Ichi tenkan at 158.52, kijun at 158.81

• Descending 100/200-HMAs above at 159.34/35, Ichimoku cloud a line at 159.44

• Daily kijun 158.46 just below, daily tenkan 159.18 above

• Option expiries 157.25-45 $708 mln, 158.00 %657 mln, some 158.45-50, 159.00

• Related comments , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Fed/Fed-speak , , ,

• On Middle East/Iran , ,
USD/JPY:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:


NYMEX WTI futures:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD +1.7% from Wed 0.57255 low, leads broader risk-sensitive asset rally

• Durability of U.S.-Iran ceasefire now in doubt as Iran threatens peace talks

• Iran says Israel's ongoing Lebanon attacks violate terms agreed with U.S.

• NZD probe above 0.5850 200-DMA fails to hold, may encourage bears

• RBNZ warnings on inflation providing additional tailwinds for NZD's run

• Fed's Mar meeting minutes reveal growing receptivity to potential FFR hikes

• U.S. Feb core PCE (poll +0.4% m/m) & Q4 GDP (poll +0.7% q/q) due Thur

• Range NZ 0.58104-28, support 0.5680 0.5580, resistance 0.5918 0.6092
NZD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Bank of America Global Research previews the US March CPI report on Friday.

"CPI inflation likely jumped due to energy in March. The March CPI report should show the initial effects of the Iran war. We forecast a 0.9 % m/m (0.91% unrounded) increase in headline CPI owing to a 10.6% m/m jump in energy prices. Core CPI, meanwhile, should be softer at 0.3% m/m (0.26% unrounded). The headline NSA index should print at 330.762. Market and our attention would be focused on the implications for PCE inflation after very strong core PCE prints in recent months," BofA notes.

"Core CPI details. While our forecast for core CPI is cooler than headline CPI, it still implies a 3.1% annualized rate, above levels typically consistent with 2% core PCE. In terms of the details, we expect a 1% m/m pop in used cars to contribute to a 0.23% m/m increase for core goods. Core services likely rose by 0.28% m/m. Shelter should remain relatively sanguine due to cooler rent inflation. However, non-housing services' inflation, likely picked up slightly on the month," BofA adds.

• AUD/USD +1.1% from Wed 0.6969 low, but traders wary of U.S.-Iran ceasefire

• Iran says Israel's ongoing Lebanon attacks violate terms agreed with U.S.

• Wed's relief rally lifting risk sensitive assets, WTI -14.8%, DXY -0.8%

• Fed Mar meeting minutes flag growing receptivity to FFR hikes

• AUD break above 0.7018 55-DMA sets up potential run towards 0.71875 ytd high

• U.S. Feb core PCE (poll +0.4% m/m) & Q4 GDP (poll +0.7% q/q) due Thur

• Overnight range 0.70285-78, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7188 0.7282
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NY opened near 1.1690 after 1.1590 traded overnight, rally extended in early NY

• Drop in US$, US yields & equity gains helped EUR/USD hit 1.1722

• US$ buying emerged though & yields firmed while gold, silver eroded some gains

• USD/CNH bounced off its session low & oil struggled to add to earlier losses

• EUR/USD slid from its early high, dipped below 1.1670 then bounced slightly

• The pair sat just below 1.1680 late in the day, traded up only +0.71%

• Rising RSIs and pair's move above 200-DMA & 12-month MA give bulls comfort
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7055 after AUD/USD traded 0.6969-0.7084 overnight

• Pair rallied early, 0.7078 traded but bulls ran out of gas as the US$ firmed up

• US yields & USD/CNH rallied away from their lows

• Gold and silver eroded some gains which helped to drive some US$ buying

• AUD/USD bulls gave up some of the earlier gains, pair slid below 0.7045

• It then neared 0.7055 late, traded up +1.07% in NY's afternoon

• Rising RSIs, move above 21- & 55-DMAs and daily cloud are bullish signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan likes to stay short CAD in the near-term.

"The ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran has weighed on the dollar, bringing USDCAD back below 1.39. While positive, we don’t think this is enough to offset the headwinds facing the Canadian economy, so we are staying short CAD here, encouraged by the fact the currency continues to underperform on crosses," JPM notes.

"Flow-wise, systematics returned to selling CAD after a break over the long weekend. The 200d at 1.3816 is the level to watch below," JPM adds.

By Justin McQueen

Apr 8 (Reuters) - A full-scale escalation was avoided after the U.S. and Iran agreed a two-week ceasefire, pulling the rug from under the geo risk premium that had been supporting the USD. Yields down, oil down, hedges unwound, resulting in a rally for risk assets. Cable has retraced back into the 1.3485-1.3500 zone, effectively testing the pre-conflict levels, and the question now is whether there is real conviction to chase it through here or whether the market is content to fade the move.

It's worth noting that strikes are reportedly still ongoing in the region so while tail risks have narrowed, this is far from resolved. Conditions are expected to remain choppy with dollar softness at the margin. As flagged previously, GBP is arguably not the cleanest expression of USD weakness heading into May local elections. Political noise will keep a lid on extended topside. That said, seasonals are still constructive for sterling and with geo risk dialed down, the path of least resistance is modestly firmer. A weaker dollar lifts all boats.

Technically, 1.3485-1.3500 is the line in the sand. A clean break and close above opens the door for an impulsive leg toward 1.3600. Fail here and we likely consolidate in the short-run.
GBPUSD hourly chart


(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own) ((Email: ))

Nomura Research maintains a long EUR/GBP position targeting a move towards 0.8950 by end of April.

"From a cyclical, interest rate perspective there appears to be limited prospects for the BoE to match market pricing for hikes in the months ahead. Indeed, Governor Bailey, in a Reuters interview on 1 April, suggested that markets were “getting ahead of themselves” in terms of pricing tightening, and that the MPC would “focus on jobs, growth” at coming meetings, as well as inflation. He mentioned that firms he speaks to feel a “real lack of pricing power”. As the most likely swing voter between the hawks and doves, these comments suggest a high bar for him to flip to deliver hikes," Nomura notes.

"The ECB, meanwhile, appears to have a little more potential to match expectations with several hawkish comments suggesting that the April meeting is live. While we still think a hike is unlikely, a hawkish tone is likely to persist while inflation risks remain elevated," Nomura adds.