• EUR/GBP hovers above key support at 0.8600 after March flush out

• RSI bull divergence flags downside exhaustion

• Cross in consolidation mode with EUR and GBP event risk keep a lid on conviction

• Hold above 0.8600 keeps door open for a reprieve. Sub-0.86 would flip the view

• De-escalation signs in Middle East would help underpin - headline risk remains

• Topside resistance stands at 0.8660/88 - 200DMA cluster

• While dip buyers are in control above 0.86
EURGBP daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Credit Agricole CIB Research previews the RBA March policy meeting on Tuesday.

"The meeting outcome is likely to be close, but we think the central bank will raise its cash rate 25bp to 4.10%. With the market about 70% priced for a hike, the knee-jerk reaction in the AUD to a hike would be higher, but then investors will look to the vote count (we would not be surprised to see a split vote) as well as the RBA’s rhetoric," CACIB notes.

"The Australian rates market is priced for three more 25bp rate hikes by the RBA this year suggesting it is looking for a hawkish hike tomorrow. While a spilt vote would weigh on the currency, we think the RBA’s rhetoric will be hawkish with an eye on containing inflation expectations supporting the AUD," CACIB adds.

• Cable rises to 1.3305 as safe-haven dollar weakens on lower oil prices

• U.S. crude futures fall more than $4 to intra-day low of $94.31 per barrel

• Risk-sensitive pound benefits from U.S. stock gains: S&P 500 up 1%

• 1.3315 (Friday's Asia low, pre-UK GDP data) is a GBP/USD resistance level

• Trump to hold news conference Monday prior to Kennedy Center board meeting

• Fed rate hold expected on Wednesday; BoE rate hold expected on Thursday

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses the scope for JPY intervention.

"Persistently high crude oil prices are a clear yen-negative through higher imports, given Japan's dependence on Middle Eastern crude. Compared with the Fed and European central banks, which have traditionally been willing to tighten in response to supply shocks, the BoJ's wait-and-see stance and political pressure for fiscal stimulus despite limited fiscal capacity could also contribute to yen weakness," BofA notes.

"At the same time, unlimited tolerance for further yen depreciation appears unlikely given its implications for inflation and politics. The expected policy sequence would be FX intervention first, followed by Boj tightening. However, FX intervention in an environment of broad USD strength and high crude prices carries a risk of being ineffective, implying an intervention threshold well above 160 for USD/JPY," BofA adds

Barclays Research discusses the scope for JPY intervention.

"With USDJPY having risen back to the previous rate check level, the 159s are likely to see heightened sensitivity to verbal intervention, temporarily slowing the pace of gains...

In the absence of conditions for FX intervention, such as a spike in USDJPY volatility, actual intervention may not be conducted until levels near the 2024 high (161.95)," Barclays notes.

"Further increases in oil prices, a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a dovish outcome at this week's BoJ meeting that reduces the odds of an April rate hike could see USDJPY test 160 and then the 2024 FX intervention zone (161s)," Barclays adds.

March 16 (Reuters) - EUR/USD is showing signs of oversold stress on the daily chart and corrective risk is building. However, weekly and monthly charts remain heavily bearish. A series of four straight bear closes last week set up a modest rebound from the Monday open and this could develop into a stronger run back to the 10-day moving average, currently 1.1565-EBS. An April 6 1.1821-28 Ichimoku cloud twist adds to the adjustment risk. Cloud twists can appear to attract price and, in combination with an overreaching trend, can warn of a direction change. The bigger picture shows EUR/USD continuing to retrace the 2025-2026 1.0125-1.2084 bull run. Positioning wise, the market has reduced the number of euro longs from $27 billion in February to $15 billion in March. The pullback from the 1.2084 January trend high reached 1.1409 last week. A further selling of EUR longs could bring a 38.2% Fibonacci level into play. The retracement of the long-term bull trend is at 1.1336 and the key 50% level is at 1.1105. Last week's EUR/USD close inside the weekly Ichimoku cloud and below the 20-week lower Bollinger band adds to the bearish structure. The cloud top and last week's high now provide resistance at 1.1502 and 1.1667, respectively. The 200-month moving average - 1.1924 - continues to lean on the market and, despite a spike above the line in January, the average has contained EUR/USD since December 2014. It remains to be seen if March weakness prevents the 20-month moving average from crossing above the 100-week average, a bull signal. Both averages provide downside targets at 1.1242 and 1.1232, respectively.
EUR/USD monthly chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of gold miners down premarket, tracking a decline in bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold down 0.8% at $4,978.29/ounce

• Bullion prices decline as rising oil prices fuel fears of inflation and a more hawkish central bank outlook, weighing on the non-yielding metal

• Top miners: Newmont down 2.6%; Barrick Mining

down 2.7%

• South African miners: Harmony Gold , AngloGold Ashanti and Gold Fields down between 1.2% and 3.4%

• Canadian miners: Agnico Eagle Mines down ~2%; Kinross Gold falls 2.5%
(Reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru)

• USD call options have been very popular to hedge positions for ongoing Mid-East conflict

• USD calls charge a premium for the right to buy USD if strike is preferable to spot price

• These options have been especially popular versus EUR - strikes as low as 1.1000

• Expiries fixed over coming months would hedge risk of more USD gains if conflict drags on

• USD calls vs JPY with strikes above 160.00 saw a strong pick-up in demand last week

• Price action suggests the expected level of official intervention is now higher

• Related - RBA threat boosts AUD/USD's volatility risk premium to 11-month high (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 40 pip range thus far Monday; 1.3226-1.3266

• 1.3226 is six pips above Friday's 14-week low of 1.3220

• Drop to 1.3220 spurred by demand for safe-haven dollar, higher oil prices

• Oil above $100. UK PM vows to protect "working people" from Iran war fallout

• BoE is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.75% this week (Thursday)

• CFTC data: Net GBP short up for fifth consecutive week, to 84,197 contracts

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Many central bank policy announcements due this week but RBA the only one expected to hike

• Overnight options expire 10-am New York on Tuesday and now therefore include the RBA call

• Overnight implied volatility shows a substantial increase for AUD/USD - priced well above G10 peers

• Overnight expiry AUD/USD implied vol peaked 25.0 in Asia from already high average 18.0 last week

• Premium/break-even at 25.0 is 72 USD pips vs 56 USD pips at 18.0

• Current level of o/n expiry AUD/USD implied vol is highest since Trumps April 2025 liberation day

• Friday's FX options wrap - Bracing for shocks as USD call demand surges
Overnight expiry FXO implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Number of euro longs reduced from $27 billion in Feb to $15 billion in March

• EUR/USD has sunk from 1.2084 to 1.1509 EBS while longs pared

• Target to correct 2025-2026 uptrend is 1.1336 (38.2%)

• Eventually those betting on a rise (long euro) must sell

• The correction heightens chance that traders further reduce long positions

•
EURUSD and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY held relatively bid in Asia on 159, range 159.26-72 EBS

• Off some early on FX intervention threat over the weekend, today

• That said, USD remained strong across board along with high crude oil prices

• Crude oil prices relatively high, NYMEX futures @100/brl, Brent even higher

• Resistance at 159.75 high Friday, then 160.00

• $1 bln in option expiries today between 159.95-160.00 to help cap

• Spot highest since 161.76 July 11, '24 before fall to 139.58 Sept 16, 2024

• 161.96 peak on July 3, 2024 earlier in month

• EUR/JPY 182.25-70 EBS after fall to 182.29 Friday

• Just above ascending 100-DMA at 182.20, daily cloud 183.50-184.30 above

• Some option expiries today at 182.25, 181.00-05, 180.00

• GBP/JPY 210.82-211.56, back in 210.06-212.38 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Follows brief sojourn back above cloud last week, 211.41 100-HMA pivot

• AUD/JPY 111.46-90, pivoting around 111.74 hourly tenkan, daily kijun 111.93

• On heavy side despite expectations of RBA hike tomorrow, more going forward

• Related comment , also

• On FX action threat , ,
USD/JPY hourly:


NYMEX crude oil futures - hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD up +0.2% in Asia as crude slips below $100, Wall Street futures rise

• WTI +0.15%, pares early gains of 3%; S&P E-Mini ekes out a 0.4% gain

• U.S. in talks with other countries to protect Strait of Hormuz, Trump says

• Trump threatens NATO with a "very bad" future if the bloc does not help U.S.

• GBP upside capped as conflict escalates; Iran asserts strength, shuns talks

• UK economy ground to halt even before Iran war; stagflation fears mount

• BoE rate decision on Thu, monetary policy report and summary key

• Unemployment data also due; Fed rate decision on Wed key for markets

• Support 1.3210-20, 1.3180, resistance 1.3290-1.3300, 1.3340-50

• Fridy range 1.3220-1.3368; Asia range 1.3226-1.3266
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.4% Mon, broader USD index eases 0.3% as sentiment steadies

• U.S. officials predicting quick end to war even as Iran rejects any talks

• Oil the main focus with global inflation fears rising, bonds under pressure

• RBA meeting outcome Tue, 25 bps hike anticipated, statement will be critical

• FOMC meeting outcome Wed, expected to leave FFR unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

• AUD recovering from lower hourly Bollinger band, solid buying 0.6945-50 zone

• Range Asia 0.6985-0.70185, support 0.6944 0.6900, resistance 0.7282 0.7661
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD stronger across board on continuing Middle East war, no end in sight

• NATO allies look to become more involved, escalation inevitable?

• Japanese and South Korean officials agree to act on FX but to no avail?

• USD/JPY to 159.75 EBS Friday, Asia so far today 159.26-72

• Highest since 161.76 on July 11 2024 before fall to 139.58 Sept 16, '24

• 161.96 peak on July 3, 2024 earlier in month

• Japan FX intervention threat real but Middle East conflict effects rule

• Tech support from flat hourly Ichimoku kijun at 159.38, bids below?

• Ascending hourly Ichimoku cloud 158.65-159.11 below

• Large $772 mln option expiries today between 158.25-50, some 159.00-05

• Also some at 159.50, total $1 bln above between 159.95-160.00, to help cap?

• Short JGB-US Treasury rate differentials wider, USD supportive, 2s @245 bps

• Related comments , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Japan-SoKorea , , ,

• On US economy , , on Japan energy needs

• On Middle East , , ,
USD/JPY:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:


NYMEX crude oil futures:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 4.2% to their lowest level since mid-December 2025

• Sub-index on track to record its third consecutive day of losses, if trend holds

• Gold prices slipped on Friday pressured by inflation worries driven by the Iran war [GOL/]

• Gold miner Northern Star Resources and Genesis Minerals lose over 5.5%

• Sub-index has fallen 9.1% this year, including session's moves

(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD +0.2% from Fri 0.6980 low, as DXY drifts off a 4-month 100.54 high

• RBA meeting outcome Tue, 25 bps hike expected, tone & guidance crucial

• U.S. strikes Iran's key oil export hub Kharg Island, ceasefire elusive

• Oil the main focus with global inflation fears rising, bonds under pressure

• FOMC meeting outcome Wed, Reuters poll consensus no change to FFR

• Deteriorating risk sentiment weighing on AUD, solid buying 0.6945-50 zone

• Range Asia 0.6985-99, support 0.6944 0.6900, resistance 0.7282 0.7661
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NY opened near 1.1460 after pair hit a 7-month low of 1.1433 in Europe's morning

• Pair lifted early as US$ traded softly, 1.1490 traded but the pair turned lower again

• Broad-based US$ buying emerged again; USD/CNH rallied toward 6.9060

• Oil gains weighed on the pair as did drops in gold

& equities

• EUR/USD dipped back below 1.1440, traded down -0.61% in NY's afternoon

• Falling RSIs, pair's hold below 10-DMA, 12-month MA are bearish tech signals
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP$ nears session low in NY afternoon, -0.7% at 1.3249; NorAm range 1.3289-1.3231

• Mideast tensions, weak UK data weigh on GBP$; US-Iran tensions remain primary focus

• USD also gaining as Fed rate cut expectations for 2026 diminish, 1-cut seen in Sept

• BoE expectations flip to 1-hike late in 2026 amid persistent inflation

• UK 10-yr gilt yield at 4.83%, highest since early-Sept, fiscal angst a drag on GBP/USD

• GBP$ supt 1.3231 Friday's 3-mos low, 1.3200 psychological lvl, 1.3180 daily low Dec 2

• Res 1.3261 falling 10-HMA, 1.3368 daily high Mar 13, 1.339 the flat 100-DMA

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Corrects headline to Four session low struck)

• NY opened near 0.7040 after the pair fell overnight, 0.7062 hit early on US$ weakness

• US$ bulls remerged however as risk soured, AUD/USD began falling again

• Oil gained & USD/CNH rallied toward 6.9060 while gold, silver & stocks traded downward

• AUD/USD hit 0.6999 and held nearby late, it traded down -1.03% in NY's afternoon

• Techs are bearish; AUD/USD trades below the falling 10- & 21-DMAs, daily RSI falling

• Monthly RSI also falling after diverging on the 3-3/4-year high struck on Wednesday
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research previews next week's RBA March policy meeting.

"The RBA meeting next week should be a positive for the AUD. The meeting outcome is expected be a close call, but we think the RBA will raise its cash rate 25bp to 4.10%. We had previously thought the central bank could hold off raising rates until May," CACIB notes.

"With the market about 75% priced for a hike, the knee-jerk reaction in the AUD to a hike would be higher, but then investors will look to the vote count (we would not be surprised to see a split vote) as well as the RBA’s rhetoric. While a spilt vote would weigh on the currency, we think the RBA’s rhetoric will be hawkish with an eye on containing inflation expectations. This would give the AUD another lift as markets price in further rate hikes," CACIB adds.

• Cable drops to 1.3231 as safe-haven dollar catches fresh bid

• 1.3231 is the lowest level since early December (1.3212 was Dec 3 low)

• Asian session low was 1.3315 - before UK GDP data miss hurt pound

• CFTC data on FX positioning is due at 3.30pm ET (1930 GMT)

• Data is likely to show net GBP short rose again in the week to March 10

• Barclays expects Fed to push back rate cuts on inflation worries

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research outlines the latest findings from its FX and Rates Sentiment Surve.

"USD positioning swung rapidly from a record underweight a month ago to neutral levels, with investors viewing traditional "risk off" as the biggest upside risk from here. In contrast, duration exposure/views have been more stable following the Middle East conflict, with the pain likely concentrated in the front-end," BofA notes.

"There is low conviction in volatile markets but for choice, investors prefer to chase the momentum in USD but fade the back-up in rates. This is consistent with our view that global recession risk from persistently high energy prices may be underpriced," BofA adds.

Sterling faces a challenging near-term outlook, with risks skewed toward further downside as a toxic combination of stagnating growth and persistent inflation weighs on investor sentiment.

Sterling fell to a three-month low of $1.3245 on Friday following data showing the UK economy stagnated unexpectedly in January. This weak activity, coupled with stubbornly high inflation expectations, has fueled stagflation fears just as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drive energy prices higher—a dual blow that acts as both a tax on growth and a catalyst for price pressures. Market participants are increasingly adding to short positions as the currency’s yield advantage evaporates. Rising fiscal concerns have pushed 10-year gilt yields toward last summer’s highs by 4.8%, while shifting STIR expectations, as indicated by LSEG's IRPR, now indicate a potential Bank of England hike by the end of 2026, a stark reversal of earlier expectations of as much as 2-25bp cuts into yearend 2026. Simultaneously, Fed rate cut expectations have been scaled back to a single 25-basis-point move in September, further squeezing the pound.

From a technical standpoint, the outlook is increasingly bearish as GBP/USD moves farther below its 200-DMA at 1.3441 and has pierced the lower daily Bolli at 1.3277. Immediate support is found at today's low of 1.3245, and a sustained break below this level could signal a deeper retracement toward late-2025 ranges near 1.30.

On the topside, any relief rallies will likely find stiff resistance in the 1.3363/68 area, the daily conversion line and Friday high. Further up, the 100-DMA at 1.3399 and recently bruised 200-DMA serve as formidable ceilings that the pair must reclaim to neutralize the current negative momentum.
Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)