• USD net spec G10 long relatively steady in the Mar 18-24 period; $IDX -0.36% in period

• Data may be dated as the USD rose amid Mideast, inflation concerns after period cls

• US talks peace progress, Iran still lobbing missiles deny meanigful negotiations

• Global fiscal, inflation concerns rapidly becoming a thing as war drones on

• EUR$ +0.59%; spec -11.9k contracts now +9.3k; inflation/growth concerns for ECB

• $JPY -0.13%; specs +5k contracts now -62.8k; $JPY abv 160 in Friday trade

• GBP$ +0.41%; specs +7.1k contracts now -58.4k; GBP lwr amid fiscal, inflation angst

• $CAD +0.54%; specs -2.5k contracts now -1.6k; oil gold rise temper $CADs steady move higher

IMM Position Table:


Majors w/IMM performance:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6890 after 0.6912 traded overnight, drop extended in NY

• Pair traded in choppy range in early action but sellers eventually emerged

• Concerns conflict with Iran could escalate drove risk-off sentiment, rallied US$

• Oil rallied more than 4.0%, USD/CNH rallied to 6.9223, stocks fell more than 1.5%

• AUD/USD fell below the daily cloud base, hit a 2-month low of 0.6865

• The pair sat near 0.6870 late in the session, traded down -0.31%

• Techs are bearish; RSIs indicate downward mometum, pair below 10, 21- & 55-DMAs

• Daily and monthly inverted hammer canlde reinforce the bearish signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP$ weakness extend in NY afternoon, -0.5% at 1.3266; Friday range 1.3345-1.3262

• Oil eyes $100/bbl (CLc1), key driver of USD bid, glbl inflation amid Mideast conflict

• UK 10-yr gilt yields highest since Jul 2008 exacerbates UK fiscal uncertainties

• LSEG's IRPR now indicating 72% odds for April BoE hike, +68bp by YE 2026

• Rising yields on back of rising UK prices, diminishing growth keeps GBP on backfoot

• GBP$ supt 1.3247 daily low March 19, 1.3220 trend low Mar 13, 1.3180 Dec 2 low

• Res 1.3312 21-HMA, 1.3345 Friday high, 1.3432 flat 200-DMA

GBP$ Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research maintains a bearish bias on EUR/USD in the near-term and through the rest of 2026.

"We maintain a modestly bearish outlook on EUR/USD from current levels given that some EUR positives (with respect to the ECB and European fiscal stimulus in particular) and many USD negatives (with respect to the US economic and Fed outlook) are still in the price. More recently, global geopolitical risks have clouded the outlook for the single currency," CACIB notes.

"We continue to think that the Eurozone and the EUR could remain vulnerable to further escalation of geopolitical tensions. We note that the ECB is sounding uncomfortable about further EUR/USD appreciation while political risks could resurface in the Eurozone, creating headwinds for the single currency. We continue to expect further EUR/USD weakness for the rest of 2026," CACIB adds.

• Shares of silver miners up, tracking rising prices of the metal [GOL/]

• Spot silver rises 4.4% to $71.10 per ounce

• Prices rise on dip-buying after a pullback earlier this week, while investors look for signs of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict

• Hecla Mining up 4.3%, Coeur Mining rises ~6%

• Canadian miners: Endeavour Silver gains 5.1%, Silvercorp Metals inches up 6.1%

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust ETF both advance 5.4%
(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

Morgan Stanley Research maintains a bearish bias on EUR/USD in the near-term but warns investors about falling into a USD bull trap.

"We maintain our view that we think the FX market will ultimately trade in the Defense Regime. The persistence of the conflict has shifted the distribution of outcomes for energy markets higher, as explored here, and the longer it lasts, the greater the risk that markets price an outcome aligned with the 'effective closure' scenario. We think EUR/USD could fall to as low as 1.13 as markets move closer and closer to pricing the demand destruction scenario," MS notes.

"But ultimately we think a rally to this level is more likely to be a 'bull trap' - a head fake where price action lures in investors, only to suddenly reverse. Rather than a signal that the USD rally would continue, we think this level is consistent with fully pricing in the demand destruction scenario," MS adds.

Sterling is poised to remain under significant pressure in the near term as geopolitical instability, fiscal fragility and threats to domestic growth leave the currency vulnerable.

During North American trading, GBP/USD dropped to a 4-session low of 1.3273, as market participants weighed the escalating Middle East conflict against a darkening economic backdrop. The crisis has fueled concerns over energy-driven UK inflation as well as knock-on effects on economic growth, creating a challenging environment for the pound as safe-haven flows continue to favor the U.S. dollar overwhelmingly.

As long-end gilt yields rise over inflation concerns, they also push up UK borrowing costs, triggering fiscal sustainability worries. With public debt currently at 93% of economic output, finance minister Rachel Reeves has limited options to soften the blow of resurfacing inflation or to provide a meaningful growth catalyst. Should the Middle East conflict linger and inflation solidify its grip, the resulting pressure on the UK's fiscal position and economic output is likely to keep sterling on its current downward path.

Technically, the outlook remains bearish with the pair trading well below key moving averages. Upside attempts are likely to find immediate resistance at the 10-day moving average of 1.3356 and the daily conversion line at 1.3363. Stronger resistance resides at the 200-DMA at 1.3433.

Support-wise, today’s low of 1.3273 provides the first line of defense, followed by the lower Bollinger Band at 1.3235 and the March 13 low at 1.3220. A break below these levels could open the door for a retest of November 2025 lows at 1.30.
GBP$ Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research flags downside risk for GBP in the near-term.

"The history of GBP performance in periods of risk aversion is not good and added to that yield can turn from a positive to a negative as investors turn their focus to growth. The scale of increase in yield in the UK has been huge – the OIS pricing for year-end has swung from investors expecting two cuts before the conflict to now expecting three hikes...Real GDP in the UK pretty much stagnated in 2023 in part on the tightening financial conditions in late 2022," MUFG notes.

"So GBP being the top performing G10 currency after the US dollar doesn’t make much sense to us and if we are about to see an escalation in risk-off trading we’d expect to see GBP underperform, potentially notably," MUFG adds.

Bank of America Global Research highlights the latest reading from its month-end fixing model.

"Our estimates suggest the potential for (1) material inflows into USD-denominated assets (c.+1.0σ - see Exhibit 2) and to a lesser extend EUR assets (c.0.2σ), vs (2) outflows from JPY (c.-1.7σ), EM (c.-1.4σ) and GBP (c.-1.1σ) assets," BofA notes.

"The direction of travel clearly suggests strong USD/CHF buying, driven primarily by the sharp drawdown in US equities. With bond returns also posting negative returns, we think this could be one of the larger USD/CHF buying months of the year. The signal has been consistent enough for us to have confidence in the direction of flows," BofA adds.

• EUR/USD rallied to 1.1546 in Asia, sellers emerged, the pair turned lower

• The pair opened NY by hitting 1.1510, a 4-session low, was down -0.16% early

• US yield gains & broad-based US$ buying weighed on the pair

• Potential for escalation in Iran conflict keeps US$ safe-haven bid in place

• EUR/USD's reversal of its rally helps to increase bearish tech signals

• Daily inverted hammer candle formed, 10-DMA now acting as resistance

• Falling daily, monthly RSIs indicate downward momentum, reinforce bear signals
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD fell to 0.6872 in Asia, a 2-month low, it then rallied to 0.6912

• Sellers emerged in Europe's morning, NY opened near 0.6890

• The pair traded near flat in early action with the help of balanced risks

• USD/CNH turn downward & rallies in gold, silver helped limit the downside

• Higher US yields, broad-based US$ buying helped to cap the pair's topside

• A daily doji candle formed which suggests investors are indecisive

• Doji formed near daily cloud base, daily RSI diverging; are concerns for bears

• Falling monthly RSI, March monthly inverted hammer candle comforts bears
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY's positive momentum reading puts the focus on 160

• There is likely a cluster of vulnerable buy stops above 160.00

• USD/JPY is has risen from 159.46 to 159.98, on Friday, EBS data shows

• Fin MIn Katayama warns of oil-driven FX speculation, vows decisive action

• Traders should beware the relationship between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is breaking down

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY well below +0.5

Correlation Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Traders are long of euros, oil rising and tech sell signals imminent

• Brent trading around $100 pb on Friday ($40 rise during war)

• 55-DMA at 1.1715 dropping toward 100/200-DMAs 1.1693/1.1679

• Death Cross signals (sell) in the pipeline for EUR/USD

• If traders right about bonds, they should worry about stocks and hedge FX

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable falls to 1.3315 as safe-haven dollar strengthens on Iran war uncertainty

• 1.3315 is intra-day low, five pips shy of Thursday's four-day low

• Thursday's low was plumbed as Nasdaq closed down 2.38% (at 2000 GMT)

• GBP/USD then rallied to 1.3364 on war update from U.S. President Trump

• Trump extends deadline for striking Iran's energy plants to April 6

• UK February retail sales down 0.4% vs minus 0.7% f/c; Jan revised up by 0.2%

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Unity Metals rise as much as 18.2% to A$0.26, their largest intraday pct gain since March 11

• The Southeast Asia-focused metals explorer reports discovery of high-grade gold at its Ngot project in Cambodia

• More than 375,000 shares change hands vs 30-day avg volume of around 252,000 shares

• Stock up 12.2% YTD, including current session moves, after its debut on ASX in January

(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)

• Hong Kong-listed shares of Jiangxi Copper drop 4.3% to HK$34.86, set for a second consecutive session of losses, if current trend holds

• Stock marks its biggest intraday pct decline since March 23, and is second-biggest pct loser in the Hang Seng Composite Index on material stocks , which gains 0.3%

• Jiangxi's Shanghai-listed stock slips 3.1% to 42.82 yuan, its lowest point since March 24

• The Chinese copper miner says its 2025 net profit up 2.4% y/y and revenue up 5.4% y/y

• Company says it had made a 1.53 billion yuan ($221.32 mln) provision for impairment on various assets for 2025

• Citi, with "buy" rating, says Jiangxi Copper's 2025 net profit is lowered than estimates, mainly driven by higher effective tax rate than expected

• YTD, Hong Kong stock down 18.3%, Shanghai-listed shares down 20.6%

($1 = 6.9132 Chinese yuan)

(Reporting by Donny Kwok)

• Seems some players short JPY/long other currencies paring positions

• USD/JPY off from 159.85 EBS overnight, Asia to 159.50

• Granted move not so large but reflective of pre-weekend caution

• Threat of Japanese FX intervention seen higher now closer to 160

• JPY crosses on back feet too, also to relatively small degrees

• EUR/JPY to 183.88 EBS today from a high of 184.52 Wed, 184.47 yesterday

• Towards base of its 183.89-184.22 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• GBP/JPY from 213.43 late New York to 212.50, towards 212.37 200-HMA

• CHF/JPY in gradual decline from 201.50 yesterday to 200.46 today

• AUD/JPY heavy for most of week, from 110.92 yesterday to 109.58 today

• Related comment , also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD bid across board with Middle East conflict not going away

• Seems some back-door negotiations progressing but no end in sight

• USD/JPY bid on broad USD strength, Asia 159.67-73 EBS so far

• Again in approach to 160, possible line in sand for Japan FX action

• Expect renewed jaw-boning from Japanese officials today

• Weekend nigh and traders unlikely to take inordinate positions

• Japanese exporter offers and importer bids likely above and below

• Option expiries at 159.00, 159.90-160 and on 161 but nothing massive

• Some barriers tipped at 160.00 but more likely up at 162.00

• 161.96 peak on July 3, 2024 and target of USD bulls

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials on hold above recent wides

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also

• US markets , , ,

• Fed-speak , , ,

• And , poll , on US economy
USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD flat in Asia Fri, but remains pressured by inflation & growth fears

• Break below 0.6897 leaves AUD vulnerable to extended fall towards 0.6660

• Quick end to U.S.-Iran war unlikely despite Trump's deadline extension

• Iran says U.S. 15-point plan to end war as one-sided & has not yet responded

• RBA meeting minutes Tue will be closely scrutinized for forward implications

• Range Asia 0.68845-95, support 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7282
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian mining sub-index falls as much as 1.6%, set for its second consecutive session of losses, if trend holds

• Sub-index, however, has gained 2.6% in the week so far

• Copper fell on Thursday as brimming inventories and macroeconomic concerns weighed on prices for the metal [MET/L]

• Mining majors BHP , Rio Tinto and Fortescue down between 0.2% and 0.7%

• AXMM has fallen 0.4% this year, including session moves
(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)

Bank of America Global Research discusses EUR outlook and targets EUR/USD at 1.14, 1.17, and 1.20 by end of Q2, Q3, and Q4.

"Our base case of no protracted Iran conflict and no permanent energy scars means we keep our bullish medium-term EUR view. While broad-based EUR weakness is unlikely to continue, risks are certainly skewed toward more and persistent EURUSD weakness," BofA notes.

"EUR's past month has been tough: in spot, it has only strengthened vs SEK in G10; it has been sold the most in near-dated options; and its skew has fallen meaningfully, esp. at the front end. The turnaround in sentiment has also been striking. This pressure on EUR sits slightly at odds with flows and the price action earlier this year. Terms of trade have mainly driven the FX price action so far. The EUR-G10 price action has highlighted EUR's weak spot: natural gas, against a backdrop of low inventories," BofA adds.

• AUD/USD +0.3% from Thur low on extra 10-day Iran energy plant moratorium

• Risk aversion lingers as quick end to U.S.-Iran hostilities remains unlikely

• Iran reviews 15-point plan, says one-sided/doesn't meet minimum requirements

• DXY +0.3%, Brent crude +3.2%, LME copper -1.6% and gold -2.4%

• AUD break below 0.6897 increases downside potential significantly

• Overnight range 0.6876-0.6951, support 0.6662, resistance 0.7250 0.7282
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA


AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NY opened near 1.1560 after 1.1571 traded overnight, pair continued falling

• Early selling was driven by firm US$, US yield gains USD/CNH rally toward 6.9200

• EUR/USD hit 1.1523 then bounced toward 1.1555, sellers emerged once again

• Risk-off intensified on Pres. Trump's latest comments on the conflict with Iran

• US$ buying persists while gold, silver, stocks hit fresh lows due to flight to safety

• EUR/USD hit 1.1525 in NY's afternoon, it traded down -0.26% late in the day

• Techs lean bearish; pair fell below the 10-DMA, RSIs indicate downward momentum
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP$ hovers near Thurs low in NY afternoon, -0.3% at 1.3330; NY range 1.3378-22

• Rising oil prices, persistent inflation concerns weigh on GBP, risk broadly

• Iran sees US peace plan as 'one-sided' as Trump raises stakes with oil threat

• Fiscal concerns levated as gilt yields hover near multi-year high, 10-yr by 5%

• USD remains primary haven destination; usual havens USTs, gold, JPY avoided

• GBP$ res 1.3380 the 21-DMA, 1.3353 the daily conversion line, 1.3433 the 200-DMA

• Supt 1.3318 Thursday low, 1.3300 psychological lvl, 1.3233 lwr 30-d Bolli

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)