EUR/USD could face further downward pressure following a pullback from its two-month high struck Thursday. The euro could come under traders' scrutiny after the German government downgraded its GDP forecasts for 2026 and 2027, projecting growth of only 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively. Additionally, inflation projections have been raised to 2.7% for 2026 and 2.8% for 2027, raising concerns among investors about the euro zone's economic stability. In contrast, U.S. economic indicators suggested resilience, with weekly jobless claims falling and the Philadelphia Fed business conditions index surpassing expectations.

This divergence in economic performance, if continued, could drive investors towards the dollar as its yield advantage over the euro could increase. Currently, spreads are widening between U.S. and German 2-year bonds . Additional widening could add further downward pressure on EUR/USD.

Additionally, oil prices have stabilized after declining from the March highs, but any resurgence could prove bearish for the euro.

Technical analysis also raises concerns for EUR/USD bulls, as the pair's ascent from March lows has hit structural resistance around 1.1800. Daily indicators show a divergence in the RSI at the two-month high traded today, coupled with the formation of an inverted hammer candle, signaling potential weakness ahead.

These factors collectively suggest a challenging outlook for EUR/USD in the near term.
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eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses CHF outlook and the scope for SNB intervention.

"CHF has weakened since early March when SNB raised intervention stakes. Question: has the SNB intervened?Answer: we think not, at least not in size using anecdotal data.

So, if SNB intervention flows have been light, why has CHF weakened since March? We think a confluence of factors has been a bigger dynamic - namely moving past peak conflict risk and then USD debasement trade on hold rather than intervention flows," BofA notes.

"Looking ahead, favourable seasonals in the coming months limit further losses, but the key will be whether USD debasement and term premium become a stronger narrative," BofA adds.

• Shares of gold miners rise, tracking higher bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold up 0.6% at $4,816.14/ounce

• Bullion prices rise as hopes for a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran helped ease inflation concerns and improved prospects of lower interest rates

• Top miner Newmont gains 1.3%

• U.S-listed shares of South African miners Gold Fields

up 1.4%, AngloGold Ashanti inches up ~1% and Harmony Gold rises 5.1%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

Goldman Sachs Research discusses the USD outlook in light of the recent developments in the Middle East conflict.

"The Dollar continues to move in unison with headline sentiment, but we think the focus will soon move towards the economic aftermath, which in our view should be selectively supportive for the Dollar. Under our commodity strategists' baseline assumption that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually normalize over the next month, our economists still expect a significant deterioration in current account balances across much of Asia," GS notes.

"In this way, we see important differences between this and prior policy evolutions; traffic through the Strait has been curtailed for more than a month, and that will have an impact on economic activity. As a result, we think the 2022 analogy will likely provide a better template for FX markets than 2025 in terms of how long the conflict can impact parts of the FX market," GS adds.

JP Morgan likes to add EUR/USD on dips.

"The euro continued to squeeze yesterday, still so many questions as to why the currency trades so well in the face of a picture that appears bleak for Eurozone growth suggests still some pain out there. This is all a range but still feel like there may be something bigger at play here so keeping core longs although reduced a touch given we are at a key pivot point and whilst multiple attempts yesterday never felt convincing on a 1.18 handle," JPM notes.

"ECB commentary quite balanced here suggesting no panic hikes just yet but think given past mistakes were made that's not too bad for the currency. Look to add back again on dips with a stop below the moving average cluster  (1.1670/1.1700)," JPM adds.

• AUD/USD fell to 0.7164 in Asia, buyers then emerged, the pair turned positive

• Australian March employment report helped fuel a rally to 0.7197

• The pair hit its highest since June 2022, selling then took hold

• US$, oil buying & USD/CNH rally to 6.8235 weighe don AUD/USD

• AUD/USD matched Asia's low just ahead of NY's open, pair traded down -0.02%

• Daily techs warns bulls; RSI diverged & a gravestone doji candle formed

• Those signals suggest AUD/USD may be due for a corrective pullback

• Rising monthly RSI, pair's hold above daily cloud, many DMAs give bulls comfort
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable tracks the seasonal playbook, up over 2% MTD - April often best month

• Rally largely stemming from bid in equities, 2-week ceasefire deal was the catalyst

• Spot stalling at 1.36, possible topside exhaustion but dips look well-supported for now

• While USD bias should stay offered as equities hold constructive tone

• However, geo headlines remain a risk, any flare-ups will spark a USD rebound

• Seasonal tailwind in play, but watch for an earlier-than-usual GBP peak this time

• UK local elections offer a layer of risk as month-end draws near
GBP seasonals


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• Japan, US agree to strengthen communication on exchange rates

• Fin Min Katayama said she told G7 counterparts that Tokyo is closely watching FX moves

• USD/JPY has rebounded from Asia's 158.27 low to hit 159.05 in London, EBS data shows

• Multiple failures below the 158.49 Fibo, on April 1 and 8 are a bear-trap: a 160 retest is likely

• A bear trap is set when a market breaks below a tech level but reverses: is usually a bullish sign

• Spot has again on Thursday broken below the 158.49 Fibo, but that has not been sustained

• 158.49 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 152.10-160.47 2026 (EBS) rise

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is well below +0.5 (relationship broken)

Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

April 16 (Reuters) - EUR/USD is following a textbook inverse head and shoulders recovery off the March 1.1409 (EBS) low on the daily chart, but it needs to overcome key technical resistance in order for it to be completed by reaching 1.1855.

The 1.1855 level is the measured objective of this head and shoulders pattern, calculated by taking the vertical distance from the head at 1.1409 up to the neckline, then projecting that same distance upward from the neckline breakout point that occurred on April 8.

For the EUR/USD bullish cycle from the 1.1409 low to persist, spot needs to first overcome the 1.1826 Fibonacci level, a 61.8% retrace of the 1.2084 to 1.1409 (January to March) EBS drop. If there is a 1.1826 Fibonacci break, spot could overshoot the 1.1855 measured objective and trade well above the 1.1900 psychological level.

However, a failure to break above the 1.1826 Fibonacci level this week could be an early sign that EUR/USD is topping out.
Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable met fresh headwind pre-1.36 in Asia; 1.3595 was session high

• 1.3595 is the highest level for two months (1.3590 was Tuesday's top)

• Risk-sensitive GBP underpinned by stock gains as Middle East peace hopes grow

• 1.3545 (Wednesday low) is a support point. UK February GDP up 0.5% vs 0.1% f/c

• BoE's Bailey tells BBC he's in no rush to raises rates. Echoes his April 1 guidance

• Trump threatens to fire Powell if he doesn't quit Fed board. Warsh hearing April 21

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of GoldArc Resources rise 2.9% to A$0.07, their highest level since March 6

• Stock rises for third consecutive session

• Co enters into a binding term sheet with private co Mineral Mining Services, for development of its Orion and Sapphire deposits at its Leonora South gold project

• Says the agreement converts non-binding letter of intent announced in October into an enforceable commercial framework to advance to production

• Stock up 11.1% YTD

(Reporting by Jasmeen Ara Shaikh in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Taiton Resources rise 33.3% to A$0.12, their highest level since February 16

• The mineral explorer raises A$1.25 million ($898,875) to be used for discovery drilling programmes at its Highway copper-gold project and Challenger West gold project among other purposes

• Stock on track for its best day since October 2, if gains hold

• Issue price of A$0.07 represents a discount of 22.2% to stock's last close

• About 106,248 shares change hands, 3.5x the 30-day average of 30,400

• Stock up 4.3%, YTD, including moves in current session

($1 = 1.3906 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Jasmeen Ara Shaikh in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD +0.3% Thur after reaching 0.7197, its highest level since Jun 2022

• Solid AU jobs data sures up May RBA hike, futures implying 69% probability

• Stop-loss buying above 0.7188 providing additional uplift to the pair

• AUD now targets Jun 3, 2022 0.72825 high, hawkish RBA will assist

• RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaking in Washington D.C. Thur

• Whitehouse talking up peace talk hopes despite looming ceasefire deadline

• Range Asia 0.7165-97, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7188 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• JPY tad better bid in Asia, market optimistic on US-Iran talks?

• This may be especially the case with crude oil prices relatively stable

• NYMEX futures look to have found equilibrium of sorts around $91.50/brl

• USD/JPY off a notch from 158.98 to 158.68 EBS today

• 157.89-160.03 range since April 7 holding, market eyeing core 158-160

• Spot looks to have tracked away from 158.89-159.23 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Holding above 158.60 low Tuesday however

• JPY crosses off a bid but still near multi-year, some record highs

• EUR/JPY off from 187.67 fresh record high yesterday, 187.33-41 EBS in Asia

• Buoyant but upward momentum looks to have flagged for now

• Same for CHF/JPY, Asia 202.88-203.31, high Tuesday 203.88

• GBP/JPY 215.26-70, off from 215.90 high yesterday

• With July 2008 high of 215.89, now double top ahead of 216.00

• AUD/JPY 113.69-114.02 after rally to 114.10 yesterday

• High yesterday best since 114.75 in October 1990

• Related , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/JPY:


GBP/JPY:


AUD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Thur, Mar jobs data meet expectations, full-time jobs +52.5k

• AU Mar employment +17.9k jobs (poll +20.0k), 4.3% unemployment (poll 4.3%)

• Hawkish RBA supporting AUD, may trigger move above 46-month 0.71875 high

• RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaking in Washington D.C. Thur

• Whitehouse talking up peace talk hopes despite looming ceasefire deadline

• Attention moves to tail issues as markets discount Iran re-escalation risks

• Range Asia 0.7165-78, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7188 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY looks to continue to pivot around 159.00, in uneasy stasis

• Middle East focus refuses to go away, central bank expectations too

• MOF jaw-boning on-going, FX intervention risk on ,

• USD/JPY 158.80-98 EBS, well within recent 157.89-160.03 range since April 7

• This core 158-160 range likely to persist for now, maybe into weekend

• Maybe tad better bid from here, risk of weekend news usually USD supportive

• USD/JPY back into hourly Ichimoku cloud yesterday but has fallen back below

• Cloud currently 158.90-159.23, spot tracking away, kijun/tenkan 158.90/93

• In options, massive 158.40 $1.3 bln expiries today, likely supportive

• Also 159.00 $544 mln, 159.50 $491 mln, 160.00 $624 mln, 160.30 $722 mln

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials narrower as of New York close

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also , IMF on BOJ

• US markets , , ,

• On Fed , , ,

• On Beige Book , , US data
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research previews the US initial jobless claims print on Thursday.

"Initial claims rose 16k to 219k last week. We think this is a temporary swing around the Easter holiday rather than a sign of underlying weakening, and we forecast a decline to 215k in the coming week," MS notes.

"If we're wrong, and new claims increase, the two weeks of higher prints could begin to suggest that oil prices and uncertainty were spilling into faster layoffs. We expect continuing claims revert to recent levels, rising to 1.83 million," MS adds.

• AUD/USD +0.6% late Wed amid ongoing optimism for Iran peace talk resumption

• AU Mar employment 0130 GMT, Reuters poll: +20.0k jobs, 4.3% unemployment

• Geelong oil refinery fire out of control, threatens 10% AU fuel supply

• Hawkish RBA driving AUD, may spur move above 46-month 0.71875 high

• RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaking in Washington D.C. Thur

• Overnight range 0.7130-775, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7188 0.7283
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

(Corrects typo in headline)

• NY opened near 1.1775 after EUR/UD traded a tight range in Asia & Europe's morning

• US$ selling emerged in early NY, USD/CNH slid away from its 6.8225 session high

• Stocks rallied and gold, silver traded upward in early NY which added weight on US$

• EUR/USD rallied above the daily cloud top, hit 1.1808 but bulls ran out of gas

• US$ firmed up as yields & oil traded up and gold turned downward again

• EUR/USD slid below the cloud top, neared 1.1795 late, traded near flat in NY's afternoon

• Daily doji formed, daily RSI near overbought suggests pair may consolidate recent gains

• US jobless claims, March industrial production are data risks in NY Thursday
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7135 after 0.7123 traded overnight, choppy traded in early NY

• Broader rally resumed though as US$ sales emerged, Japan yen sales lifted AUD/JPY

• USD/CNH drop from its high, equity gains added weight on US$ buoyed riskier assets

• AUD/USD hit a fresh 1-month high of 0.7169, pair traded up +0.50% in NY's afternoon

• Techs lean bullish; RSIs rising, pair above daily cloud & many daily MAs

• Australia March jobs report, China Q1 GDP & March retail sales, industrial output are risks
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research discusses how Gold prices become a key driver for EUR/CHF direction.

"We note that CHF would stand to benefit from an improvement in terms of trade following the sell-off in gold prices over the past several weeks which seemed to have weighed on the currency. Indeed, we think the rally in gold prices helps explain the move lower in EUR/CHF last Tuesday amidst the otherwise risk-on price action following the de-escalation headlines," GS notes.

"We find that gold prices have become a more meaningful driver of EUR/CHF returns recently, with higher gold prices driving greater CHF appreciation regardless of the risk backdrop. As a result, a more sustained recovery in gold should help support the Franc," GS adds.

• EUR/GBP stuck in a tight range, clustered around key MAs at 0.8689/0.8703

• Dips likely contained, conviction below 0.87 is low. Aggressive downside to be supported

• UK political risks will grow as the May local elections draws near

• Seasonals favour GBP, though mainly via cable - less relevant on the cross

• That said, once this tailwind rolls off, this likely clears way for EUR/GBP upside

• ECB officials signal no rush to hike in near-term - April priced at 25%

• But a measured approach could anchor EUR more sustainably over longer term

• On balance, risk/reward still leans higher for EUR/GBP
EURGBP daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

RBC Research discusses the scope for SNB intervention in the medium-term.

"CHF has been one of the worst performing currencies in the G10 over the past month as risk sentiment surrounding the Iran War has improved and FX intervention has gone from a risk to reality. For the past year CHF has strengthened strongly, as geopolitical uncertainty has once again showcased its safe haven attraction that caused it to behave as the dominant risk-off currency in the G10. With Trump still in the White House for three more years, it is hard to imagine a period of geopolitical serenity emerging," RBC notes.

"We have long argued that there has been a need for the SNB to intervene to tackle persistent currency strength and imported deflation. However, it appears that this round of intervention may be more reactive in response to event-driven appreciation, rather than proactive. Therefore, we remain skeptical that in its current form SNB intervention can move CHF persistently lower. The current data we have is too lagged to show significant intervention so far. By February at least there was little sign of action," RBC adds.

EUR/USD is poised for potential upward movement as it sits near key resistance levels, though traders are seeking a fresh catalyst for further gains.

After a rally from the March monthly low, the pair has encountered significant structural resistance in the 1.1800 area, which has contained numerous daily highs and lows as well as monthly highs since June 2025.

Investors are closely watching geopolitical developments, particularly regarding the conflict with Iran, as a peaceful resolution could lead to lower oil prices, benefiting the eurozone economy and the euro itself.

A resolution might also contribute to lower U.S. yields, eroding the dollar's yield advantage over the euro. Should the 2-year U.S.-German yield spreads tighten, this could provide support for EUR/USD gains.

However, technical indicators suggest that the pair may need additional time to overcome the resistance around 1.1800. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching overbought territory, indicating a potential need for a corrective move before the broader rally can resume. Moreover, the daily cloud top, which has stalled the recent rally, is set to begin declining on Friday, potentially adding short-term downward pressure on EUR/USD.

If the pair successfully clears the 1.1800 resistance, the rally from the March low could gain momentum, with the January monthly high at 1.2084 becoming the next target.
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)