• Cable fell to intra-day lows at 1.3202 during NY trade. Range: 1.3202-54

• Another tepid bounce faded as USD and US yields drifted higher

• White House urges EU to draw down diesel inventories , adds to USD bid

• Risk leans towards a 1.3200 break, which would open up the YTD low at 1.3140

• So far, cross-related EUR/GBP has helped keep cable above 1.3200

• With month-and-quarter-end due Wednesday, additional USD demand cannot be ruled out
GBPUSD hourly chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

JP Morgan adopts a cautious bullish USD bias into this week's US September payrolls.

"Our tactical conviction in USD length has increased as strong US data, more hawkish Fedspeak, and persistent energy risks suggest scope for further near-term Fed repricing; hold long-USD basket into this week's US payrolls release," JPM notes.

"But we stop short of adding fresh USD exposure as the broader global growth backdrop remains constructive and the dollar is already approaching local highs against several currencies. The US was clearly the standout in this week's PMIs, but the improvement was not confined to the US, with the Euro area composite also exceeding expectations and pointing to a broader pickup in activity," JPM adds.

• NY opened near 0.7000 after 0.7029 traded overnight, drop extended in NY

• Extension of US yield rallies helped drive broad-based USD buying

• Drops in equities, silver, copper, oil helped reinforce the USD buying theme

• AUD/USD broke August's monthly low, hit a 2-month low of 0.6966

• The pair hovered just above that low, traded down -0.69% late in the day

• Techs are bearish; RSIs falling & pair below 200-DMA, 61.8% fib of 0.6877-0.7238

• China Sept. NBS PMIs, Australia Aug. CPI are data risks in Asia trading hours
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research sees recent ranges holding in G10 FX into year-end.

"Ahead of the crowded central bank meeting calendar in September, we flagged that front end differentials had returned as a dominant driver of exchange rates. After the FOMC meeting, we estimated a move in US 2y rates toward 5% (our rates team's forecast), could take the DXY to the summer highs but not beyond. Both have been borne out by recent price action but leave us precariously balanced at the strong end of DXY's long held 96-102 range," BofA notes.

"Our technical view remains bullish, but our fundamental forecasts imply the range holds medium-term.," BofA adds.

• USD/CAD briefly tagged 1.42, which now raises the risk of a bout of profit-taking

• Spot has rallied from mid-1.3750s to 1.4200 with minimal pullbacks

• Overbought RSI cautions against aggressively chasing at these levels

• Broad USD moves look stretched, lowering the bar for a retracement

• Initial support at 1.4126-40, then 1.4000

• For further upside, need a decisive close above 1.4200, to keep YTD high at 1.4248 in focus
USDCAD daily chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Goldman Sachs reviews the September RBA meeting.

"The RBA raised the cash rate 25bp to 4.60%, in line with our and consensus expectations. The Monetary Policy Board's (MPB) decision was unanimous, with financial markets priced for 24.2bp of tightening prior to the meeting. The brief statement attending the decision retained a tightening bias and was in line with our expectations," GS notes.

"They hiked and maintained the tightening bias in the statement, saying they would increase the cash rate further if needed, but the press conference comments seemed less hawkish:...

That's consistent with our AUD view that ultimately, while the RBA hiking and being hawkish helps, it really is also a call on the broader risk backdrop, and China-specific risk in particular. That's one reason we've liked EUR/AUD downside from these levels," GS adds.

ANZ Research adopts a sell-on-rallies bias on EUR/USD.

"We view US data, Fed expectations and broader risk sentiment as the dominant drivers of EUR/USD direction in the near term. The technical backdrop also remains soft," ANZ notes.

"EUR/USD is trading below its 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing the broader downtrend. Initial support is around 1.132 (1 year low), with a break opening the way towards 1.12. We see any tactical upside as an opportunity to sell. Resistance is seen at 1.14 and then 1.154," ANZ adds.

• 0.7029-0.6979 traded overnight, a 2-month low traded, NY opened near 0.6995

• Pair fell despite RBA 25bps hike & possibility for more hikes to come

• Broad-based USD buying, overnight drops in gold, silver, copper weighed on AUD/USD

• Drops in oil and USD/CNH also could not inspire AUD/USD bulls

• Pair's bounce off the low aided by US yield drops, equity gains

• Techs are bearish; RSIs falling, pair below 200-DMA, 61.8% Fib of 0.6867-0.7238

• September's monthly inverted hammer candle reinforces bearish signals

• US Aug. JOLTS, Sept. consumer confidence are data risks in NY

• Fed's Bowmna, Barr, Goolsbee, Musalem, Williams, Waller to speak today
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• The USD/JPY correlation between spot performance and risk premium remains firmly on the downside

• FX option risks reversals highlight this with a strong premium for JPY calls over puts vs the USD

• This means that when spot trades lower, implied volatility trends higher - rewarding FX option holders

• Benchmark 1-month expiry 25 delta risk reversals are 2.5 JPY calls over puts - up from 1.9 in mid September

• Late July intervention took the contract to high since April at 3.0, setbacks have stalled at 1.8 since then

• Market still fearful of intervention, especially since increased verbal rhetoric - the likes of that from Atsushi Mimura on Monday
USD/JPY FXO implied volatility


USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversals

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD sinks to 1.1333 EBS close to 2026 low at 1.1325

• Drop follows oil's rally, US and EZ i/rate rises and bond slump

• Stocks which have slipped only modestly remain key

• Bearish tech signals target 1.1275 if 2026 low broken

• Target for a deeper correction of 1.0125-1.2084 rise is 1.1105

• Worrying backdrop could trigger rush for the dollar

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD FX option implied volatility trades new highs since June - raising the cost of volatility risk premium

• Benchmark 1-month expiry now 5.75 after testing Decembers multi year lows at 4.5 in mid September

• Lower spot and risk of further losses is lifting implied volatility and the EUR put over call premium

• 1-month 25 delta risk reversals up from 0.1 to 0.85 since Sept Fed, though settle around 0.65 for now

• Dealers note ongoing demand for lower strike options between 1.1300-1.1200 with near term expiries

• If 1.1300 option barriers break, the market may become short gamma - accelerating spot losses and vol gains
EUR/USD FXO implied volatility


EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals-

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• UBS model flags USD/JPY as the standout month-end rebalancing sell signal

• S&P 500 has outperformed G10 equity peers month-to-date in September

• Despite broad US equity strength, only USDJPY shows a clear, strong signal

• Other G10 pairs: signals are weak or misaligned with month-to-date equity moves

• UBS say the model's predictive power is currently weak, so treat signals with caution(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD flops under 0.7000, touching 0.6984, despite hawkish RBA

• Break of psych barrier cues stoploss orders, momentum-selling

• Further downside exposed; July low of 0.6922 could be tested

• Near that level, some fast-money profit-taking bids could gather

• RBA's Bullock says may hike again if needed

• C.bank raised cash rate by 25 bps as widely expected
AUD

(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.2% as RBA tightens monetary policy 25 bps as widely anticipated

• Decision unanimous, further hikes not ruled out, 4.60% OCR a 15-year high

• AU Aug CPI update due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.5% m/m, +4.1% y/y

• AU household spending softens to 0.0% in Aug (prior +1.1% m/m)

• WTI +1.5% as supply concerns re-escalate amid scant U.S.-Iran peace progress

• Fed rate hike bets firm, futures pricing implies 70.3% chance of Oct 28 hike

• AUD targets 0.6920 support, break above 0.7066 100-DMA may reset narrative

• Range Asia 0.7008-29 support 0.6920 0.6865, resistance 0.7282 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA


AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY in stasis on 157, Asia 157.21-58 EBS, awaiting fresh news, US NFP

• Recent official jaw-boning helping to cap upside, Katayama-speak again today

• Japanese exporter offers in place ahead of 158.00, importers at Tokyo fix

• Upside seen heavy above 158.47 200-DMA, support sub-156.64 daily Ichi kijun

• Hourly chart shows resistance from 157.62-98 Ichimoku cloud

• Spot pivoting around ascending 200-HMA at 157.39 currently

• EUR/JPY 178.78-179.06 EBS, inside day after 178.20-68 range yesterday

• Upside likely capped at 179.59 200-HMA, hourly cloud 179.68-86 above

• CHF/JPY 188.78-189.27 after push down to 188.42 yesterday

• Holding above 188.31 low September 17, 187.50 low September 14

• GBP/JPY 208.19-75, above 207.60 low yesterday, 207.02 trough September 8

• AUD/JPY 110.19-54, above 109.84 low yesterday, 109.62 trough September 14

• Could see more moves later post-RBA

• NZD/JPY 88.93-89.31 after 88.65 low yesterday, lowest since November 2025

• Related comment , also

• On Katayama-speak , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Sept 29 (Reuters) - USD/JPY could be broadly steady until the US jobs report on Friday. The data will likely sway market expectations for the next Federal Open Market Committee policy decision on October 28.

Official comments have helped cap USD/JPY for now with Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura speaking out against a weak yen late last week and Monday , , , .

Markets are currently pricing around a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point FOMC hike in October, though expectations are not uniform so soon after this month's hike .

The Reuters poll forecasts a 90,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September following August's 162,000 gain. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 4.1%.

Ahead of this crucial release, USD/JPY could be a story of the battle between Japanese importers and exporters and another battle between those now long the yen and bears looking to short again.

Japanese importer demand remains undiminished given elevated import costs. Energy prices are higher again due to the resumption of Middle East hostilities.

However, Japanese exporters have plenty to repatriate given good sales and especially with most budget assumptions for the fiscal year above USD/JPY 155. They are likely to continue with forward sales following the scare when USD/JPY plunged to 152.89 EBS on September 8.

As to positioning, IMM CTAs have pared some yen longs entered on the USD/JPY drop to 152.89. Net JPY longs have fallen to 71,982 as of September 22 from 120,359 contracts as of September 15 . More long liquidation appears to have occurred since, with USD/JPY climbing to 159.03 on September 24.

Related comments , , ..

USD/JPY:


Fed rate expectations and short-term yields:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Sonali Desai)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Tue; AU household spending flat in Aug (prior +1.1% m/m)

• RBA decision due 0430 GMT, 25 bps hike widely expected, statement critical

• AU Aug CPI update due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.5% m/m, +4.1% y/y

• Fed Governor Cook still wary on inflation; Fed rate hike bets firming

• Futures pricing now implies 70.3% chance of another Fed hike Oct 28

• Brent crude +1.2% in Asia as lack of genuine U.S.-Iran progress continues

• AUD targeting 0.6920 support, break above 0.7066 100-DMA may turn narrative

• Range Asia 0.7009-19 support 0.6920 0.6865, resistance 0.7282 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 1.9%, their lowest level since Sept 17

• Sub-index on course for fourth straight session of losses, if current trend holds

• Gold stocks drop on the back of falling bullion prices after they hovered near a more than seven-week low on concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer [GOL/]

• Gold miner Northern Star Resources falls 2.3% and Evolution Mining drops 0.3%

• YTD, AXGD down more than 3%

(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• Comments from Japan FinMin Katayama, US TsySec Bessent, MOF's Mimura impact

• Katayama and Bessent spoke Friday, Mimura yesterday, warned of FX action

• Mimura especially adamant in Reuters exclusive, action towards USD/JPY 160?

• USD/JPY range yesterday 156.51-157.85, Asia so far today 157.30-45 EBS

• Japanese importer demand at Tokyo fix, exporter offers eyed on rallies

• Could be stasis today awaiting fresh news, US jobs report on Friday

• Crude oil prices have steadied, yen supportive? Some yen longs pared too

• Support from 156.64 flat daily Ichimoku kijun, 200-DMA 158.47 resistance

• Spot currently pivoting around ascending 200-HMA at 157.36

• Now descending hourly Ichimoku cloud 157.60-98 above

• Some option expiries below on 156, 157.00 $485 mln, 157.50-65 $758 mln

• JGB-US Tsy rate differential off some in 2s, still at recent wides in 10s

• Related comments , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Mimura-speak , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD flat wtd as investors adjust positions in lead up to RBA decision

• Meeting outcome due 0430 GMT, 25 bps hike widely anticipated, statement key

• AU Aug household spending data also due at 0130 GMT Tue, prior +1.1% m/m

• AU Aug CPI update due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.5% m/m, +4.1% y/y

• Brent crude $105.90 a barrel, Gold down 4.0% as Fed rate hike bets firm

• AUD targeting 0.6920 support zone as potential for bigger downswing builds

• Overnight range 0.70075-39 support 0.6920 0.6865, resistance 0.7282 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA


Gold Daily 21-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Credit Agricole CIB Research revises down its USD/JPY forecasts.

"The steep selloff in JGBs over the past 18M is encouraging the GPIF to increase the weighting of domestic bonds in its portfolio. This change would also reduce pressure from the government for the Fund to allocate more of its capital domestically.

While we cannot know the new asset reallocations of the GPIF, which could be revealed in early November, we judge the most likely new allocations towards domestic bonds of between 31-35% combined with no increase or a modest increase in domestic equity holdings to 31%. Such reallocations would generate repatriation flows of USD115-138.1bn, resulting in short-term fair value for USD/JPY between 148-150," CACIB notes.

"We are lowering our USD/JPY forecast profile, now expecting the exchange rate to average 156 in Q426 (down from 163) and to continue its downward path to 150 in Q427 (previously 156)," CACIB adds.

The euro slipped against a mixed dollar on Monday as higher Treasury yields driven by inflation and debt-supply concerns weighed on risk sentiment, while ECB President Christine Lagarde downplayed euro zone inflation concerns.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook said AI-driven demand and higher oil prices are likely to keep inflation pressures elevated in coming months, though she did not signal a need for further rate hikes.

Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appointed David Zervos as counselor.

Oil trimmed early gains as US and Iranian officials hold separate talks, with a U.S. official saying discussions remain constructive but no deal is likely without nuclear progress, despite President Donald Trump's openness to sanctions relief.

Lagarde said euro zone inflation has yet to trigger significant second-round effects, supporting a measured ECB response, while the central bank plans to expand euro liquidity backstops to bolster the currency's global role.

ECB Governing Council member Alvaro Santos Pereira said energy remains the main inflation driver, with higher natural gas prices posing a key risk this winter.

UK finance minister John Healey said fiscal discipline will be central to his Oct. 28 budget, citing rising debt-servicing costs as a drain on public spending.

BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said persistent inflation has strengthened the case for keeping rates higher for longer.

DXY rose in active month-end trading, though gains were tempered as bullish dollar option sentiment eased.

EUR/USD hit a two-month low at 1.1353 before recovering, but bearish momentum below key moving averages keeps risks tilted toward 1.1350, with resistance near 1.1400.

EUR/CHF rose for a third day following weekend comments by Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel on inflation and the Swiss franc.

GBP/USD edged higher in choppy trade, but the broader downtrend remains intact with risks still skewed toward 1.3200 support and the YTD low at 1.3140, while resistance lies at 1.3280.

USD/JPY held around 157.20, supported by firmer Treasury yields and month-end demand, but intervention risks and softer momentum may cap gains near 158.00 and leave support at 156.45-65 vulnerable.

AUD/USD gained amid a stronger CNH ahead of month-end and Golden Week, but bearish technicals and resistance just above its 200-day moving average at 0.7025 leave risks remain skewed lower.

Treasury yields rose about 6 basis points, with the 2s-10s curve nudging up to +31.6bp.

The S&P 500 fell 0.59%.

WTI oil was up only 0.22% after being up over 2%.

Gold slid 3.6% while copper fell 1.9%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.20%, USD/JPY +0.11%, GBP/USD +0.09%, AUD/USD +0.01%, DXY +0.23%, EUR/JPY -0.09%, GBP/JPY +0.14%, AUD/JPY +0.08%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD marginally firmer in a choppy session. Range 1.3225-80

• Spot supported by cross-related selling in EUR/GBP, around down 0.3% on the session

• Little evidence Cable is breaking out of the prevailing downtrend

• Macro backdrop unchanged, softer risk tone and elevated energy costs still weigh on sterling

• Key support situated at 1.3200, test remains likely

• A break here would expose the 1.3140 YTD low
gbpusd hourly chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

ANZ Research previews the September RBA meeting and AUD/USD outlook around the meeting.

"Looking ahead, we now expect the RBA to deliver 25bp hikes in both September and November, taking the cash rate to 4.85%, the highest level since 2008. While a September hike is our base case, the vote may again be split, reflecting the Board's apparent preference to adjust policy alongside quarterly inflation updates and Statement on Monetary Policy meetings. Any dissent is likely to be about timing rather than the direction of policy.

For FX, the November signal matters more than the September decision itself. A hawkish hike (base case) that reinforces further upside to inflation risks and keeps November firmly in play would be the most supportive outcome for the AUD, likely pushing AUD/USD through 0.71 and towards 0.7140. A hike accompanied by neutral, data-dependent guidance will likely leave AUD/USD within its current trading range," ANZ notes.

"Conversely, a hold would likely weigh on the AUD initially, potentially dragging AUD/USD below 0.70. However, downside should prove limited if policymakers clearly signal that November remains a live meeting and further tightening remains the central policy path. In short, the AUD's reaction is likely to be driven less by September's decision and more by how the RBA frames the outlook for November," ANZ adds.