• GBP/USD -0.1% Fri in Asia as post-Apr 6 uptrend struggles to hold

• Upbeat pre-war data gives minimal uplift, energy price shock risks remain

• Break below 1.3500 may spur further slide towards 1.3444 55-DMA

• Israel-Lebanon enters 10-day ceasefire, improves chances of U.S.-Iran talks

• Rising speculation of interim Iran deal to prevent further hostilities

• U.K. flash PMIs, jobs, inflation & retail sales updates all due next week

• U.S. Mar retail sales due Tue, Apr S&P flash PMIs Thur

• Range Asia 1.35149-35, support 1.3160 1.3040, resistance 1.3867 1.4250
GBP Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD flat Fri as seemingly positive Middle East developments persist

• Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire begins, provides runway for U.S.-Iran talks

• Chances rising for interim Iran deal to circumvent reignition of hostilities

• AUD target 0.72825, hawkish RBA will provide assistance as May hike firms

• Fed President Williams underscores Iran war inflation concerns

• U.S. Mar retail sales due Tue, Apr S&P flash PMIs Thur

• Range Asia 0.71521-65, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY slid to 158.27 EBS yesterday but has since rebounded to 159.31

• Asia so far 159.05-26, tad better bid on caution ahead of weekend

• Hopes still for progress in Middle East talks but nothing assured

• USD/JPY back above descending hourly Ichimoku cloud between 158.91-159.03

• In area of 100 and 200-HMAs at 159.14 and 159.12, respectively

• Some option expiries in area today, $665 mln between 158.95-159.20

• Could exert some gravitational pull, help contain spot action

• Japanese importer buys eyed again at Tokyo fix, exporters 159.30+?

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials in stasis just above recent lows

• This despite fading expectations of a BOJ hike this month, focus now on June

• Japan FX intervention still possible given recent MOF jaw-boning efforts

• Totan Research/ICAP April hike probability off to 20%, June up to 58%

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on Middle East ,

• US markets , , ,

• On BOJ Ueda/MOF Katayama G7 talk ,

• On Fed , , US data
USD/JPY:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD -0.5% from Thur 0.59225 high as USD index breaks 8-day losing streak

• NZ Mar electronic card retail sales +0.7% m/m, +2.7% versus Mar 2025

• NZ Q1 CPI due Tue will provide critical insight for RBNZ expectations

• Trump says Israel & Lebanon will cease hostilities for 10-days

• Fed President Williams flags Iran war inflation concerns

• Range NZ 0.5888-91, support 0.5680 0.5580, resistance 0.5964 0.6012
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Danske Research discusses EUR/GBP medium-term outlook.

"EUR/GBP remains remarkably sticky around the 0.87 mark after rebounding since the beginning of April. EUR/GBP has been caught between two opposing forces since the onset of the war in the Middle East. On the one hand, the poor risk sentiment has put upside pressure on the cross amplified by a worsening outlook for the UK economy. This is only amplified by the recent repricing of the Bank of England, where markets have gone from pricing two cuts by YE to now two hikes. Given the weakness in the economy, especially in the labour market, this highlights the more stagflationary tendencies. This has also been reflected in the recent spread widening to Germany, where Gilts have been one of the big underperformers. On the other hand, while the UK is still a net-energy importer akin to the euro area, the energy mix in the UK slightly favours a relatively stronger GBP vs EUR. This has benefited GBP vs EUR," Danske notes.

"If further ceasefire talks prove effective, we expect the focus to return to fundamentals. We think the relative growth outlook favours a move higher in EUR/GBP and expect markets to scale back on BoE pricing of hikes. We expect the BoE to remain on hold for the remainder of the year," Danske adds.

• AUD/USD -0.5% from Thur 0.7197 46-month high, but remains bid overall

• Futures imply RBA May rate hike probability approaching 80%

• Hawkish RBA likely to inspire AUD move towards 0.72825 target

• Trump says Israel & Lebanon have agreed 10-day ceasefire

• Fed President Williams underscores Iran war inflation concerns

• Overnight range 0.7152-905, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7283
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar snapped an eight-day losing streak on Thursday, rising with yields and oil as doubts lingered about the possibility of U.S.–Iran talks quickly easing Hormuz disruptions. U.S. and Iranian negotiators are now pivoting toward a temporary memorandum instead of a comprehensive deal according to Reuters sources, while Bloomberg reported that Gulf and European officials see the U.S. needing about six months to clinch an Iran deal. U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran has offered to forgo nuclear weapons for over 20 years, that a new meeting could take place this weekend, and that he is unsure that the ceasefire with Iran needs to be extended. Trump also announced that Lebanon and Israel had agreed on a 10-day ceasefire. In U.S. data, weekly jobless claims declined, while the Philadelphia Fed’s April index beat expectations, pointing to rising new orders along with price pressures. New York Fed President John Williams said the Middle East war is adding to inflation pressures, while heightened uncertainty limits guidance. Dovish Fed Governor Stephen Miran said cooling inflation allows scope for roughly three rate cuts this year, though he warned price pressures were worsening before the war. The German government halved its growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5%. European Central Bank policymakers were wary of raising interest rates prematurely when they met last month.

The dollar index rebounded after an eight-day drop to its lower 20-day Bollinger, while volatility ticked higher as the equity risk rally slowed.

EUR/USD pulled back from a two-month high of 1.1823 on broad dollar buying and firmer U.S. yields, with bearish daily signals and resistance near 1.1800 highlighting downside risks.

GBP/USD hovered near session lows as resistance ahead of 1.36 held firm, with bears brushing off upbeat UK GDP data amid concerns over sticky inflation even as the pair stayed near two-month highs.

AUD/USD eased after hitting a 46-month high, with bearish daily signals pointing to scope for a corrective pullback despite supportive longer-term trends.

USD/JPY held modest gains as oil, the dollar index and yields edged higher, sitting near its 21-day moving average after rebounding above 158.50, though widening bearish risk reversals point to capped upside. Treasury yields were 1 to 4 basis points higher as the curve steepened. The 2s-10s curve was up about 1 basis point to +52.8bp.

The S&P 500 rose 0.16%.

WTI oil rose 3% amid supply worries.

Gold was little changed while copper eased 0.3%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.15%, USD/JPY +0.14%, GBP/USD -0.19%, AUD/USD -0.14%, DXY +0.15%, EUR/JPY -0.02%, GBP/JPY -0.08%, AUD/JPY -0.01%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

• NY opened near 0.7165 after pair hit a 46-month high of 0.7197 overnight

• 0.7180 neared early NY but the overnight slide resumed as US$, yields rallied

• USD/CNH & oil added to overnight gains while gold, silver traded down

• AUD/USD hit 0.7152, sat nearby late and traded down -0.20% in NY's afternoon

• Daily techs warn bulls; RSI diverged, inverted hammer candle formed

• Those signals suggest AUD/UDS could be due for a corrective move lower

• Rising monthly RSI, pair's hold above slew of DMAs, daily cloud give bulls comfort
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research discusses the scope for Japan's direct intervention to support the JPY.

"Finance Minister Katayama highlighted that she told G7 members at yesterday’s meetings that Japan is watching FX with a high sense of urgency. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not attend the meetings but Finance Minister Katayama stated that she had also discussed FX with him earlier in bilateral talks. It quickly follows on from comments yesterday in which she said that they “definitely need to calm markets” and agreed to stay in close contact with Scott Bessent," MUFG notes.

"The latest comments indicate a higher risk that Japan is moving closer to intervening directly to support the yen with USD/JPY still threatening to break above the 160.00-level. The yen has continued to underperform even as the US dollar has corrected sharply lower in recent weeks. The yen has been the second worst performing G10 currency since the US-Iran ceasefire was announced on 7th April," MUFG adds.

EUR/USD could face further downward pressure following a pullback from its two-month high struck Thursday. The euro could come under traders' scrutiny after the German government downgraded its GDP forecasts for 2026 and 2027, projecting growth of only 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively. Additionally, inflation projections have been raised to 2.7% for 2026 and 2.8% for 2027, raising concerns among investors about the euro zone's economic stability. In contrast, U.S. economic indicators suggested resilience, with weekly jobless claims falling and the Philadelphia Fed business conditions index surpassing expectations.

This divergence in economic performance, if continued, could drive investors towards the dollar as its yield advantage over the euro could increase. Currently, spreads are widening between U.S. and German 2-year bonds . Additional widening could add further downward pressure on EUR/USD.

Additionally, oil prices have stabilized after declining from the March highs, but any resurgence could prove bearish for the euro.

Technical analysis also raises concerns for EUR/USD bulls, as the pair's ascent from March lows has hit structural resistance around 1.1800. Daily indicators show a divergence in the RSI at the two-month high traded today, coupled with the formation of an inverted hammer candle, signaling potential weakness ahead.

These factors collectively suggest a challenging outlook for EUR/USD in the near term.
deus


eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses CHF outlook and the scope for SNB intervention.

"CHF has weakened since early March when SNB raised intervention stakes. Question: has the SNB intervened?Answer: we think not, at least not in size using anecdotal data.

So, if SNB intervention flows have been light, why has CHF weakened since March? We think a confluence of factors has been a bigger dynamic - namely moving past peak conflict risk and then USD debasement trade on hold rather than intervention flows," BofA notes.

"Looking ahead, favourable seasonals in the coming months limit further losses, but the key will be whether USD debasement and term premium become a stronger narrative," BofA adds.

• Shares of gold miners rise, tracking higher bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold up 0.6% at $4,816.14/ounce

• Bullion prices rise as hopes for a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran helped ease inflation concerns and improved prospects of lower interest rates

• Top miner Newmont gains 1.3%

• U.S-listed shares of South African miners Gold Fields

up 1.4%, AngloGold Ashanti inches up ~1% and Harmony Gold rises 5.1%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

Goldman Sachs Research discusses the USD outlook in light of the recent developments in the Middle East conflict.

"The Dollar continues to move in unison with headline sentiment, but we think the focus will soon move towards the economic aftermath, which in our view should be selectively supportive for the Dollar. Under our commodity strategists' baseline assumption that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually normalize over the next month, our economists still expect a significant deterioration in current account balances across much of Asia," GS notes.

"In this way, we see important differences between this and prior policy evolutions; traffic through the Strait has been curtailed for more than a month, and that will have an impact on economic activity. As a result, we think the 2022 analogy will likely provide a better template for FX markets than 2025 in terms of how long the conflict can impact parts of the FX market," GS adds.

JP Morgan likes to add EUR/USD on dips.

"The euro continued to squeeze yesterday, still so many questions as to why the currency trades so well in the face of a picture that appears bleak for Eurozone growth suggests still some pain out there. This is all a range but still feel like there may be something bigger at play here so keeping core longs although reduced a touch given we are at a key pivot point and whilst multiple attempts yesterday never felt convincing on a 1.18 handle," JPM notes.

"ECB commentary quite balanced here suggesting no panic hikes just yet but think given past mistakes were made that's not too bad for the currency. Look to add back again on dips with a stop below the moving average cluster  (1.1670/1.1700)," JPM adds.

• AUD/USD fell to 0.7164 in Asia, buyers then emerged, the pair turned positive

• Australian March employment report helped fuel a rally to 0.7197

• The pair hit its highest since June 2022, selling then took hold

• US$, oil buying & USD/CNH rally to 6.8235 weighe don AUD/USD

• AUD/USD matched Asia's low just ahead of NY's open, pair traded down -0.02%

• Daily techs warns bulls; RSI diverged & a gravestone doji candle formed

• Those signals suggest AUD/USD may be due for a corrective pullback

• Rising monthly RSI, pair's hold above daily cloud, many DMAs give bulls comfort
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable tracks the seasonal playbook, up over 2% MTD - April often best month

• Rally largely stemming from bid in equities, 2-week ceasefire deal was the catalyst

• Spot stalling at 1.36, possible topside exhaustion but dips look well-supported for now

• While USD bias should stay offered as equities hold constructive tone

• However, geo headlines remain a risk, any flare-ups will spark a USD rebound

• Seasonal tailwind in play, but watch for an earlier-than-usual GBP peak this time

• UK local elections offer a layer of risk as month-end draws near
GBP seasonals


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• Japan, US agree to strengthen communication on exchange rates

• Fin Min Katayama said she told G7 counterparts that Tokyo is closely watching FX moves

• USD/JPY has rebounded from Asia's 158.27 low to hit 159.05 in London, EBS data shows

• Multiple failures below the 158.49 Fibo, on April 1 and 8 are a bear-trap: a 160 retest is likely

• A bear trap is set when a market breaks below a tech level but reverses: is usually a bullish sign

• Spot has again on Thursday broken below the 158.49 Fibo, but that has not been sustained

• 158.49 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 152.10-160.47 2026 (EBS) rise

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is well below +0.5 (relationship broken)

Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

April 16 (Reuters) - EUR/USD is following a textbook inverse head and shoulders recovery off the March 1.1409 (EBS) low on the daily chart, but it needs to overcome key technical resistance in order for it to be completed by reaching 1.1855.

The 1.1855 level is the measured objective of this head and shoulders pattern, calculated by taking the vertical distance from the head at 1.1409 up to the neckline, then projecting that same distance upward from the neckline breakout point that occurred on April 8.

For the EUR/USD bullish cycle from the 1.1409 low to persist, spot needs to first overcome the 1.1826 Fibonacci level, a 61.8% retrace of the 1.2084 to 1.1409 (January to March) EBS drop. If there is a 1.1826 Fibonacci break, spot could overshoot the 1.1855 measured objective and trade well above the 1.1900 psychological level.

However, a failure to break above the 1.1826 Fibonacci level this week could be an early sign that EUR/USD is topping out.
Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable met fresh headwind pre-1.36 in Asia; 1.3595 was session high

• 1.3595 is the highest level for two months (1.3590 was Tuesday's top)

• Risk-sensitive GBP underpinned by stock gains as Middle East peace hopes grow

• 1.3545 (Wednesday low) is a support point. UK February GDP up 0.5% vs 0.1% f/c

• BoE's Bailey tells BBC he's in no rush to raises rates. Echoes his April 1 guidance

• Trump threatens to fire Powell if he doesn't quit Fed board. Warsh hearing April 21

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of GoldArc Resources rise 2.9% to A$0.07, their highest level since March 6

• Stock rises for third consecutive session

• Co enters into a binding term sheet with private co Mineral Mining Services, for development of its Orion and Sapphire deposits at its Leonora South gold project

• Says the agreement converts non-binding letter of intent announced in October into an enforceable commercial framework to advance to production

• Stock up 11.1% YTD

(Reporting by Jasmeen Ara Shaikh in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Taiton Resources rise 33.3% to A$0.12, their highest level since February 16

• The mineral explorer raises A$1.25 million ($898,875) to be used for discovery drilling programmes at its Highway copper-gold project and Challenger West gold project among other purposes

• Stock on track for its best day since October 2, if gains hold

• Issue price of A$0.07 represents a discount of 22.2% to stock's last close

• About 106,248 shares change hands, 3.5x the 30-day average of 30,400

• Stock up 4.3%, YTD, including moves in current session

($1 = 1.3906 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Jasmeen Ara Shaikh in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD +0.3% Thur after reaching 0.7197, its highest level since Jun 2022

• Solid AU jobs data sures up May RBA hike, futures implying 69% probability

• Stop-loss buying above 0.7188 providing additional uplift to the pair

• AUD now targets Jun 3, 2022 0.72825 high, hawkish RBA will assist

• RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaking in Washington D.C. Thur

• Whitehouse talking up peace talk hopes despite looming ceasefire deadline

• Range Asia 0.7165-97, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7188 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• JPY tad better bid in Asia, market optimistic on US-Iran talks?

• This may be especially the case with crude oil prices relatively stable

• NYMEX futures look to have found equilibrium of sorts around $91.50/brl

• USD/JPY off a notch from 158.98 to 158.68 EBS today

• 157.89-160.03 range since April 7 holding, market eyeing core 158-160

• Spot looks to have tracked away from 158.89-159.23 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Holding above 158.60 low Tuesday however

• JPY crosses off a bid but still near multi-year, some record highs

• EUR/JPY off from 187.67 fresh record high yesterday, 187.33-41 EBS in Asia

• Buoyant but upward momentum looks to have flagged for now

• Same for CHF/JPY, Asia 202.88-203.31, high Tuesday 203.88

• GBP/JPY 215.26-70, off from 215.90 high yesterday

• With July 2008 high of 215.89, now double top ahead of 216.00

• AUD/JPY 113.69-114.02 after rally to 114.10 yesterday

• High yesterday best since 114.75 in October 1990

• Related , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/JPY:


GBP/JPY:


AUD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Thur, Mar jobs data meet expectations, full-time jobs +52.5k

• AU Mar employment +17.9k jobs (poll +20.0k), 4.3% unemployment (poll 4.3%)

• Hawkish RBA supporting AUD, may trigger move above 46-month 0.71875 high

• RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaking in Washington D.C. Thur

• Whitehouse talking up peace talk hopes despite looming ceasefire deadline

• Attention moves to tail issues as markets discount Iran re-escalation risks

• Range Asia 0.7165-78, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7188 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)