• AUD/USD consolidates gains to 0.7250, its highest level since June 2022

• Ascent to 0.7250 fuelled by US-Iran deal hope, Kospi surge (AUD is risk-sensitive)

• Trump pauses effort to escort ships in Strait of Hormuz, citing deal progress

• Iran says it wants a "comprehensive agreement" with U.S.

• 0.7228 (May 1/4 highs) and 0.7200 are now AUD/USD support points

• NAB expects RBA to raise interest rates again in June

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY slumped from 157.93 to 155.00 in Asia, on Wednesday, before partially rebounding

• Yen jumps suddenly as intervention speculation swirls

• The thin market exacerbated the move as Japan closed for "Golden Week" on Wednesday

• Drop took out the 155.50 Fibo, a 61.8% retrace of the 152.28 to 160.72 (February to April) EBS rise

• The 61.8% retracement is known by some as the "golden ratio", significant in determining direction

• A failure to register a Wednesday close below the 155.50 Fibo would provide encouragement to bulls

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is back above +0.5 (pairs are moving in tandem)

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable rises towards 1.36 as safe-haven dollar softens on US-Iran deal hope

• Trump pauses effort to escort ships in Strait of Hormuz, citing deal progress

• 1.3541 was Asia low. 1.3658 (10-week high on May 1) and 1.37 are bull targets

• UK April final services PMI due at 0830 GMT; 52 expected, as per flash estimate

• UK local elections Thursday. 30-year gilt yield rose to 28-year high on Tuesday

• BUZZ-Pound to wobble if PM Starmer is challenged in aftermath of local elections

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/SGD hammered to 1.2720, extending opening losses

• Risks falling into Bollinger downtrend channel at 1.2716

• Wed close below will set off bearish momentum trigger

• From there, 1.2700 psych barrier will likely cave in soon

• Follows sudden dive by USD/JPY on suspected intervention

• USD/JPY collapses 1.3% to 155.80 from 157.90 opening
SGD


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD up 0.2% in Asia as dollar weakens on U.S.-Iran deal hopes

• Trump pauses effort to escort ships in Hormuz, citing deal progress

• WTI crude extends fall Wed, drops 1.3% after a 3.9% decline Tuesday

• S&P futures up 0.25% but traders cautious ahead of Thu local elections

• UK 30-year borrowing costs hit highest since 1998 before May 7 vote

• Resistance 1.3580-85, 1.3600-05, 1.3625-30, support 1.3540, 1.3510-15

• Tuesday range 1.3514-1.3579, Asia range 1.3541-1.3580
The UK lags on investment:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD +0.2% Wed as U.S. 'Project Freedom' pause improves risk appetite

• WTI -1.4% post-announcement, Trump claims great progress on peace deal

• EUR moves clear of 1.1650 danger-zone, but topside progression difficult

• Pair pushing upper hourly Bollinger band, slightly overbought short term

• Euro zone Mar HCOB producer prices due Wed (poll +3.3% m/m, +1.8% y/y)

• U.S. Apr non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +62k

• Range Asia 1.1692-1.172525, support 1.1650 1.1409, resistance 1.1850 1.1930
EUR Daily 55-DMA


EUR Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.6% Wed after U.S. pauses effort to assist ships through Hormuz

• Trump cites progress on peace deal, but Iran port blockade remains in place

• Oil futures decline (Brent crude -1.1%) amid improving risk sentiment

• AUD may challenge major 0.7250-85 resistance if U.S.-Iran truce materializes

• AU Mar balance on goods due Thur, Reuters poll consensus 4.1 bln surplus

• Crucial U.S. Apr non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +62k

• Range Asia 0.71819-0.72229, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA


AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY down 0.2% in Asia on Iran deal hopes; had closed 0.4% higher Tue

• Trump pauses effort to escort ships in Hormuz, cites progress in talks

• Lower oil prices, easier U.S. yields weigh; WTI extends drop Wed, down 1.3%

• Fading prospects of Fed rate cuts likely to limit USD downside

• Japan closed Wed but focus remains on any yen intervention by Tokyo

• Resistance 158.00-10, 158.50; support 157.30-35, 156.80-85

• Tuesday range 157.07-157.92, Asia 157.55-157.93
JPY:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD +0.6% from Tue 0.58575 low as Middle East fears abate slightly

• NZ Q1 unemployment 5.3%, (Reuters poll consensus 5.4%, prior 5.4%)

• RBNZ Governor Breman says NZ financial system remains resilient

• Multiple failures to break above 0.5930 point towards incoming downside run

• Futures pricing implies 68.2% probability of no RBNZ OCR change in May

• Hegseth denies Iran ceasefire breach despite attacks on both sides

• U.S. Apr non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +62k

• Range NZ 0.58815-946, support 0.5680 0.5580, resistance 0.5930 0.6090-95
NZD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.7% from Tue 0.7136 low as U.S. steps back from war re-escalation

• Pentagon's Hegseth says ceasefire not breached despite renewed hostilities

• RBA says OCR now slightly restrictive, protracted Iran war remains a risk

• AUD will need fresh impetus to challenge 0.7250-85 resistance

• AU Mar balance on goods due Thur, Reuters poll consensus 4.1 bln surplus

• Crucial U.S. Apr non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +62k

• Overnight range 0.71435-98, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

MUFG Research discusses USD/CNY outlook and targets the cross at 6.8500 by end of Q2.

"Following CNY appreciation on 8 th April due to the US-Iran ceasefire announcement, USD/CNY has stabilized between 6.8200 and 6.8400. This was partly helped by the daily USD/CNY fixing being steady at around 6.8600, indicating the PBoC’s greater tolerance of two-sided CNY moves amid external uncertainties," MUFG notes.

"The Iran war likely brings structural changes to the global economy, one of which is an increasing demand for China’s green products as many countries pursue energy diversification – this with the increased appeal of Chinese assets as a good diversifier to foreign investors will help support CNY in medium term. That said, CNY in the near term will likely be pressured by weaker growth caused by eroded real domestic demand," MUFG adds.

• NY opened near 1.1690 after 1.1677 traded overnight, lackluster rally ensued

• Pair hit 1.1714 as USD, US yields , USD/CNH & oil traded down

• Most NY gains eroded however as the pair neared 1.1695 late in the session

• EUR/USD dipped despite gold, equity & EUR/JPY gains; pair was up only +0.05% late

• A daily doji candle formed which shows investors are unsure at the moment

• Falling monthly RSI, pair's hold below 10- & 21-DMAs are concerns for bulls
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP$ held a slight gain in NY afternoon, +0.18% at 1.3554; NorAm range 1.3579-1.3532

• Pair boosted amid broad risk rally as Mideast ceasefire holding, for now; oil -3.5%

• Cable still has work to do above 1.36, GBP$ unable to hold recent intraday rises

• Ratewise, UK inflation, growth, fiscal and political concerns cap despite hawkish BoE tones

• GBP$ res 1.3579 Tuesday high, 1.3658 May 1 ten-wk high, 1.3691 upper 30-d Bolli

• Supt 1.3514 Monday/Tuesday lows & daily cloud top, 1.3475 bruised 100-DMA

• Prudent not to be misled by today's buoyant risk moves as significant conflict headline risk remains

Sterling Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7165 after 0.7136 traded overnight, rally extended in NY

• USD traded lower against most major currencies & US yields

fell

• Oil , USD/CNH fell while gold, silver, stocks & AUD/JPY rallied

• Those influences helped AUD/USD hit 0.7198 after Europe's close

• The pair dipped slightly as USD firmed up, pair neared 0.7185, was up +0.27% late

• Daily bull hammer formed after 21-DMA was touched, gives bulls comfort

• Pair's rally back above 10-DMA & ongoing consolidation reinforces bullish signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

SEB Research flags a bullish technical setup for EUR/USD.,

"EUR/USD technical momentum is approaching a long signal, while positioning and mean reversion are both neutral – leaving room for upside pressure. Seasonality over a one-month horizon is also favorable for the pair, and broad USD momentum is turning negative," SBE notes.

"With that said, the technical setup points toward a stronger EUR/USD over the coming 2- 3 weeks," SEB adds.

• EUR/GBP stuck near recent lows, 0.8600-15 holding as a near-term floor

• Feeble topside attempts keep the path of least resistance low

• Middle East deterioration is a net EUR drag via oil bid - adds to headwinds for the cross

• However, feeble rebounds signals risks continue to lean lower

• Middle East headlines have taken a turn for the worse, supporting oil - EUR headwind

• UK local elections (May 7) is a risk, but a poor Labour result is the consensus view

• In turn, this likely limits the GBP hit

• If anything, risk skews asymmetrically toward Labour performing better than expected

• For dip buyers, a false break of 0.86 is needed to confirm selling exhaustion

• Resistance stands at 0.8670/0.8700
eurgbp daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Bank of America Global Research maintains a bullish USD bias, expressing this view via a a short GBP/USD in spot and long USD/CAD in options.

"We take a sanity check of our tactical bullish USD view for May, especially as the late April price action was far from encouraging. While mostly rangebound, the USD has lagged key fundamentals and volatile sell-offs point to residual longs. One-off factors (month-end flows and Japan intervention) partly explain this, but the key reason is the perceived hurdle for Fed rate hikes," BofA notes.

"This has led to a notable decoupling between positive US data surprises and rate differentials. We think this is unlikely to sustain as economic divergence becomes even more evident in 2Q data. We stay long USD vs. GBP & CAD," BofA adds.

EUR/USD's lack of bullish action in an upbeat risk environment could be a warning sign for investors positioned long the pair.

Despite a generally positive atmosphere in financial markets Tuesday, where the U.S. dollar and oil weakened and riskier assets like gold, silver and stocks rallied, the EUR/USD bulls showed limited enthusiasm. This muted response may signal that investors are increasingly wary of several bearish factors impacting the euro.

The widening of U.S.-German 2-year yield spreads, which has been occurring since late April, has bolstered the dollar's yield advantage over the euro. This widening is now threatening the tightening trend that's been in place since May 2025, and further tightening could amplify bearish sentiment for EUR/USD.

Additionally, options markets are reflecting a cautious outlook, with EUR/USD risk reversals indicating vol premiums for 1-month and 3-month puts excede premiums for calls as investors are hedging against potential downside risks.

The upcoming U.S. employment data, including weekly jobless claims and the April ADP and payroll reports, may also play a pivotal role in shaping market sentiment. Should these reports show resilience in the job market, it could lead to wider yield spreads in favor of the dollar, further entrenching bearish momentum. A decisive move below the 1.1650-1.1680 range could invite further selling pressure, bringing the March monthly low into focus for traders.
deus


eurrr


eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan likes buying AUD/NZD on dips.

"In an 8-1 vote, the RBA hiked rates as expected to 4.35% this morning, but delivered a slightly dovish, 'we can wait and see' message, which saw yields 4-5 bps lower.

While there may be some more profit taking after this morning's decision, the widening in nominal rates is a reminder of why AUD is well positioned to benefit from a positive flow dynamic, as hedging, repatriation and investment flows support the currency," JPM notes.

"AUD/NZD is off the highs also and while the view is to buy dip[s in the cross, tonight's Employment data out of NZ will be important short term," JPM adds.

• AUD/USD pierced the 21-DMA, fell to 0.7136 after the RBA hiked rates 25 bps

• Buyers emerged however as the USD, US yields , oil sank

• Rallies in gold , silver , stocks , AUD/JPY aide AUD/USD's bounce

• 0.7174 traded in Europe's morning, NY opened near 0.7165, the pair was down -0.05%

• Long legged doji candle, ongoing consolidation of gains off March 31 low are bull signals

• US March int'l trade, April ISM non-manufacturing PMI are data risks in NY's morning
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• MOF's IMF rule reminder may have revealed Japan's hand

• USD/JPY has seen an intra-day spike on Tuesday, up from 157.07 to 157.90, on the EBS

• USD/JPY bias could be shifting after Japan's recent suspected intervention

• It has broken above a 157.50 Fibo, a 38.2% retrace of the 152.28 to 160.72 (February to April) EBS rise

• Note EUR/JPY has seen a modest 183.73-184.45 range, so far, on Tuesday

Hourly Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Yen steady as traders stay cautious after suspected intervention

• USD/JPY could climb further after last week's "action." Note the 155.50 golden ratio underpins

• 155.50 Fibo is a 61.8% retrace of the 152.28 to 160.72 (February to April) EBS rise

• USD/JPY has seen a tight 157.07-157.30 range on Tuesday, up from Friday's 155.49 low

• If Japan has fired its last shot, then 160 could be back in play

• USD/JPY's triple downside failure puts the focus back on the upside

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is back above +0.5 (pairs are moving in tandem)

Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD hugs 0.7150 option expiry after third consecutive RBA rate hike

• 0.7136-0.7173 is Tuesday range-to-date (0.7136 is the lowest level since April 30)

• Safe-haven USD supported by Iran war fears: US-Iran wrestle for control of Gulf waters

• AUD/USD bids expected near 0.7100 (0.7110 was April 30 low; 0.7102 was April 29 low)

• 0.7200 and 0.7228 (four-year high on May 1-4) are resistance levels beyond 0.7173

• CFTC data: net AUD long rose 10% to 4-week high of 71,869 contracts in week to April 28

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Removes rogue characters)

• US and Iran wrestle for control of Gulf waters

• EUR/USD slides to test the 200-DMA at 1.1677

• Traders are betting over $5 billion on the euro rising

• Apr 30 low at 1.1655, May 1 high at 1.1785

• Crude oil rises to $114 pb which will weigh EUR/USD

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)