Bank of America Global Research discusses USD/JPY technical setup.

"USDJPY has rebounded from support in the 152s (twice), broke above the Ichimoku cloud, may be forming a double bottom, MACD is positive, and the cloud may cross positive. The close above 157.76 favors a double bottom, weekly chart turn higher and further upside," BofA notes.

"Fibonacci extensions imply 161.26 / 163.43 can be reached. Ideally USDJPY remains above the daily Ichimoku cloud in the 155s. Our weekly chart is supportive," BofA adds.

(Updates)

• Shares of silver miners fall, tracking prices of the white metal [GOL/]

• Spot silver down 0.8% at $83.63 per ounce

• Prices pressured by stronger dollar and expectations of higher interest rates amid inflation concerns linked to the Middle East conflict

• Shares of miners Hecla and Coeur down between 5% and 6%, respectively

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver and Silvercorp Metals both dip ~5%

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF down marginally
(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

Morgan Stanley Research summarizes its tactical views on EUR, and JPY.

"EUR View: Neutral | Skew: Neutral We see risks as balanced for EUR/USD; a de-escalation scenario sees the pair rise to 1.18, while further escalation in energy supply volatility pushes the pair below 1.14. We think neither risk is fully priced by FX vol markets," MS notea.

"JPY View: Neutral | Skew: Neutral We turn neutral for risk skew on JPY amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions. Prolonged higher energy prices could worsen Japan's terms of trade and lead to weaker JPY, while the risk-off in global assets could lead to an unwinding of JPY carry trades," MS adds.

Goldman Sachs Research likes short EUR/CHF and long CHF/JPY as hedge trades against higher natural gas prices and rising global inflation risks.

"Given that CHF should continue to appreciate versus EUR if risks escalate we think short EUR/CHF expressions can be a good hedge against higher natural gas prices and Euro area current account risks,' GS notes.

"We also continue to think that long CHF/JPY is a good hedge against rising global inflation risks and can benefit in an environment where oil prices remain elevated for longer," GS adds.

• The eurozone imports oil while the U.S. exports it

• Oil closed at $93 barrel on Friday and rose to $119 barrel on Monday

• The huge rise in the price of oil - last $105 -should weigh EUR/USD

• EUR/USD fell to 1.1546 on Friday and opened at 1.1593 on Monday

• While the pair dropped it 1.1507 it then rebounded to 1.1573

• Oil is massively overbought and far more expensive - hedge FX accordingly

• Gold aggressively sold before a war that may boost its value

•
Brent crude oil


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Traders slashed bets on gold rising between mid-Jan and mid-Feb

• At 159k contracts bets on a rise are far smaller than 302k contracts start 2025

• Much less to stop gold - which hit a $5595/oz record high on Jan 29 - from rising

• Oil has soared which heightens inflation risk which should boost demand for gold

• The conflict in the Middle East should heighten the appeal of safer assets

• The gold rally is far less stretched in wake of the recent flask crash

• Trend is firmly up, few are long and there are more reasons to invest

•
Gold and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of gold miners fall premarket, tracking a decline in bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold down 1.5% at $5,090.53/ounce

• Bullion prices fall as a stronger U.S. dollar pressures the greenback-priced metal, while rising energy costs stoke inflation worries and reduce the chances of near-term rate cuts

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining down 3.9% and ~3%, respectively

• South African miners: Gold Fields , Harmony Gold , AngloGold Ashanti and Sibanye Stillwater decline between 3% and 5.5%

• Canadian miners: Agnico Eagle Mines falls 2.7% and Kinross Gold down 3.5%

(Reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru)

• Cable slid to 1.3283 in Asia as safe-haven USD jumped on oil's surge towards $120

• 1.3283 is the lowest level since March 3 (1.3255 was three-month low that day)

• Ensuing high is 1.3345, as oil prices retreat from four-year highs on FT report

• 1.3313-1.3425 was Friday range (when dollar fell on unexpected payrolls drop)

• CFTC data: net GBP short rose for fourth consecutive week in week to March 3

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Risk reversal options are a volatility trade which take advantage of a currency pairs direction

• EUR/USD risk reversals have been increasing volatility risk premiums for EUR puts over calls

• That's the right to sell EUR/USD versus buy it- prices have taken another leg higher Monday

• Benchmark 1-month 25 delta contract reached 1.7 Monday - a new high since October 2022

• That's up from a small topside strike premium in late Feb before Mid East conflict began

• 3-month 25 delta risk reversals now above 1.0 EUR puts - their highest in a year

• 1-year 25d risk reversal loses topside strike premium - now 0.1 EUR puts - last seen Apr 2025

• Related - Fear trade takes FX option costs toward year long highs
EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Traders have only unwound $7 billion of the $27 billion wager on euro rising

• EUR/USD has dropped 1.2084 to 1.1507 while bullish bets pared

• The remaining $20 billion is by far the largest existing FXwager

• Risk aversion evident due Iran war, bigger fall likely while more bets pared

• Target to correct EUR/USD's 1.0125-1.2084 rise is 1.1336

•
EURUSD and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Redcastle Resources jumps as much as 15.6% to A$0.185; marks steepest intraday pct gain since February 11

• Stock hits highest since February 24

• Diversified miner reports multiple thick, high-grade gold intercepts at Redcastle Reef deposit in co's Redcastle project area in Victoria

• Says drilling results provide "high level of confidence" in geological model, continuity of mineralisation across planned mining area

• YTD, RC1 soars 77.1%

(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)

• USD bid across the board with USD/JPY in the lead, Asia 157.81 to 158.90 EBS

• Escalation in Middle East conflict, possible prolongation behind rise

• Japan very dependent on Middle East energy imports, US not so much

• USD/JPY may be heading for test of 159.23 peak January 23, 159.45 January 14

• Maybe even 161.96 July 3, 2024 though intervention probably likely before

• Large option expiries to downside today supportive 157.25-158.05 $3.2 bln

• Japanese official-speak conspicuous in its absence today

• Nikkei down over 7%, JGB yields jump on inflation fears, markets in turmoil

• Tokyo pundits see possible stagflation ahead despite good data so far

• Japan wages up in Jan, large hikes eyed in Apr, Feb loans continued to rise

• EUR/JPY tad lower but steady in 182.43-80 EBS range, above 181.84 100-DMA

• GBP/JPY 210.48-211.60, still ensconced in 209.53-212.20 daily Ichimoku cloud

• CHF/JPY buoyant but sub-203.99 record high March 2, Asia today 202.37-203.53

• AUD/JPY sideways on higher plane, 110.18-111.12, recent high March 3 112.09

• Related , , on Japan data
USD/JPY hourly:


Nikkei 225:


Yield on JGB 10s - hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD down 0.8 in Asia as the safe-haven dollar rallies broadly

• Opens at 1.3364 from 1.3425 NYK close, trades a 1.3283-1.3377 range

• Risk aversion grips markets; crude oil surges 28% on US-Israeli war on Iran

• Wall Street futures, Asia stocks slide; risk-sensitive GBP hit hard

• Trump calls for Iran’s "unconditional surrender"

• Iran defies Trump, picks Khamenei's son, a hardliner, as successor

• Threat of global recession, energy price shock will continue to weigh on GBP

• Support at 1.3255, Mar 3 low followed by 1.3213, 76.4% Fibo of Nov-Jan rally

• Resistance 1.3350-55, 1.3375-80
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD -0.8% in volatile Asia as traders scramble for safety of USD

• Gaps down to 1.3364 at the open from NYK's 1.3425 close; hits low of 1.3298

• Risk aversion grips markets; crude oil surges 20% on Middle East conflict

• Trump calls for Iran’s "unconditional surrender" as war rages

• Iran defies Trump, picks Khamenei's son, a hardliner, as successor

• Threat of global recession, energy price shock will continue to weigh on GBP

• Strong supports at 1.3295-1.3300, break opens test of 1.3255, low on March 3

• Resistance 1.3350-55, 1.3375-80; Fri range 1.3313-1.3425
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 4%, their lowest level since February 9

• Sub-index slumps tracking broader gold prices which fall 2%

• Northern Star Resources fall as much as 4.1% and Evolution Mining sheds 4.4%

• Sub-index has risen 1.1% this year, including session moves
(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)

• NZD/USD -0.6% Mon as weekend Iran war news triggers safe haven DXY demand

• NZD consolidating below 0.5876 200-DMA, downside extension likely

• Oil spike detrimental to NZ economy heavily reliant on refined fuel imports

• Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi says oil could reach $150 a barrel

• U.S. Feb non-farm payrolls -92k (poll +59k), stokes FFR uncertainty

• Range NZ 0.5854-78, support 0.5580, resistance 0.6012 0.6076 0.6092
NZD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD -0.5% from Fri close as DXY buyers emerge in early trading Mon

• Broad USD index up 0.5% as weekend Iran war news prompts safe haven buying

• Oil prices spike as production cutbacks mount amongst Gulf States

• Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi says oil could reach $150 a barrel

• U.S. Feb non-farm payrolls -92k (poll +59k), stokes FFR uncertainty

• Short term EUR support near Tue 1.1530 low, but remains pressured overall

• Fri's break below 1.1574 52-WMA a very bearish signal

• EU Jan industrial production data due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +0.5% m/m

• Range Asia 1.1546-98, support 1.1490 1.1470 1.1392, resistance 1.2084
EUR Daily 55-DMA


EUR Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.7% in early trading Mon as impacts from U.S.-Iran war solidify

• Oil sharply higher as storage capacity limits trigger production cutbacks

• Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi says oil could reach $150 a barrel

• U.S. Feb non-farm payrolls dissappoint, -92k versus poll consensus +59k

• RBA's Hauser says any change to USD safe haven status will be glacial

• AUD under pressure short term, solid support 0.6895-0.6945 should hold

• Range early Asia 0.6982-0.7005, support 0.6944 0.6900, resistance 0.7158
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD (+0.3%) broadly consolidates as intra-day ranges tighten. Range: 0.6977-0.7047

• Payrolls miss provides brief respite for AUD/USD. Middle East conflict is still the focus

• 200-hour MAs at 0.7050-70 keep a lid on rebounds

• Sellers will continue to keep the weekly low at 0.6945 in sight

• That said, near-term support at 0.6980-0.7000 holds firm for now

• Going forward, geo tensions should drive the action
AUDUSD hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Goldman Sachs Research raised its Oil and USD/JPY forecasts earlier this week.

"Raised our 2Q26/4Q26/2027 Brent crude oil price forecasts to $76/$66/$70/bbl (from $66/$60/$65/bbl) and our average 2Q26 European (TTF) natural gas price forecast to €45/MWh (from €36/MWh) to reflect energy disruptions related to the ongoing conflict with Iran," GS notes.

"Raised our 3/6/12m USD/JPY forecasts to 160/158/155 (from 157/155/152) to reflect further depreciation pressure following the landslide LDP victory," GS adds.

• GBP$ firm in NY afternoon trading +0.22% at 1.3390; NorAm range 1.3408-1.3313

• Mideast tensions remain primary focus of markets, oil surging on supply uncertainty

• Pair whipsawed after US payrolls downside surprise; US yields ultimately lower post-data

• UK-side sees gilt yields move higher still; SONIA futs pricing diminshing odds for BoE cuts

• LSEG's IRPR indicating no BoE cuts in 2026; cut odds peak in summer near 40%; YE -9bp

• GBP$ res 1.3408 Friday high, 1.3445 flat 200-DMA, 1.3561- 50% Fib of 1.3867-1.3255

• Supt at multiple HMAs in low 1.3350's, 1.3298 daily low Mar 5, 1.3180 Dec 2 daily low

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research previews next week's US February CPI report.

"The February CPI report should continue to show that inflation remains relatively contained. We expect headline and core CPI to increase by 0.27% m/m (2.4% y/y) and 0.26% m/m (2.5% y/y), respectively. That is unlikely to tilt the scales for the Fed in either direction when it comes to its next policy move. Meanwhile, we expect the headline NSA index to print at 326.877," BofA notes.

"Fed implication risks are likely more important than print Based on our CPI forecast, we project that core PCE will increase by 0.22% m/m in February, which would follow a projected 0.43% m/m increase in Jan and leave y/y inflation at 2.9%. While this would be a decline from 3.1% y/y in Jan, we do not think it would change the current Fed rhetoric, especially with the risks posed by the Iran conflict," BofA adds.

• AUD/USD bounce on -92k payrolls was a dead cat - bid proved fleeting

• Geo risk is still the key driver keeping risk appetite on the backfoot

• Kuwait cutting production adds to oil supply concerns. Brent through $90/bbl

• Weekly lows at 0.6945 now squarely in focus - clean break opens up 0.6900

• Risks still skewed towards fading bounces. Resistance at 0.7090-0.7114

• No signs of de-escalation will keep AUD/USD trading heavy
audusd vs spx


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

CIBC Research reviews today's US February jobs report.

"The US labor market deteriorated sharply in February, with employers shedding 92K jobs, compounding negative revisions to the prior two month job count that totaled -69K. That resulted in the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.4%. That compared to the consensus expectation for a 55K gain in jobs and for the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.3%. Job losses were relatively widespread across industries, with leisure/hospitality (-27K), health/social assistance (-19K), and manufacturing (-12K) seeing the biggest drops," CIBC notes.

"Overall this still keeps intact our call for the Fed to cut rates, but the oil price shock could potentially delay the timing if the war doesn't end in the coming weeks," CIBC adds.