• AUD/USD slightly weaker following above-forecast US NFP, but still well within the previous day's range

• Payrolls grew by 178k in March vs 70k f'cast, but Feb revised down to -129k from -86k

• Holiday-thin trade an issue in the market; day's range just 0.6893-0.6916

• Australia observes market holidays on Good Friday and Easter Monday; other key centers also affected by holidays

• Dollar benefiting modestly from payrolls beat, which lifted Treasury yields

• Trading at 0.6897, AUD/USD is straddling the 5-DMA; has held below 10-DMA all day

• Overtaking 21- and 55-DMAs at 0.6998 and 0.7005 would build a case for an upward move

• Similarly, 100- and 200-DMAs at 0.6833 and 0.6686 key on the down side

• Daily RSI at 41.6934 trending lower, not oversold; weekly RSI steady to higher, monthly flat to lower

AUD midday four three two six


(Burton Frierson)

CIBC Research reviews today's US March jobs report.

"Payroll employment rebounded more than expected in March and the unemployment rate edged down, something that will, temporarily at least, ease fears regarding a weakening labor market. The 178K gain in payrolls employment was well above the consensus forecast (+65K), and was offset only very slightly by cumulative downward revisions of 7K to prior months. Health care employment rebounded sharply following a strike-impacted February, while retail trade and transportation also saw gains following declines in the prior month. Despite strong employment growth, hourly earnings were weaker than expected at 0.2% m/m and 3.5% y/y. While that's not great for households, particularly given the pressures to disposable incomes from higher pump prices, it may ease concerns at the Fed regarding broader-based inflationary pressure," CIBC notes.

"Overall though this was still clearly a better than expected report and one that justifies the current wait-and-see approach from the Fed, as it assesses how persistent the current oil price shock will be and how likely it is to spill over into other areas of inflation," CIBC adds.

• AUD/USD doing very little in holiday-constrained trade before U.S. jobs report

• Australia observes market holidays on Good Friday and Easter Monday

• Other key centers also affected by holidays

• Aussie stuck below the 10-DMA at 0.69214

• Range so far just 0.69050-0.69155, well within Thursday's 0.6860-0.6941

• U.S. jobs report at 0830 EDT the main issue on the immediate agenda

• March U.S. payrolls seen +60k vs previous -92k;

aud pre payrolls


(Burton Frierson)

• Fresh jaw-boning by Japan FinMin Katayama falling on deaf ears today

• Market quiet aside from some flows at holiday-affected Tokyo fix

• USD/JPY 159.44-66 EBS, tad better bid but essentially in stasis

• This despite Katayama promise to act decisively against FX volatility

• Katayama again also noted speculative moves in both FX and crude oil

• "To respond on all fronts" the new MOF mantra on FX action

• In other markets, Nikkei up, efforts to reopen Hormuz Strait tipped

• In JGBs, yields up to 27-year highs on inflation fears over Iran conflict

• Related comment , also

• On Katayama speak , on Nikkei , JGBs
USD/JPY hourly:


Yield on JGB 10s - daily:


Nikkei 225 daily:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR pairs will likely see even less trading in Asia during Easter holidays

• EUR/USD indicated 1.1540-41 EBS so far, market thin and little interest

• Holding smack in middle of recent 1.1409-1.1640 range established Mar 16-23

• Towards base of its 1.1537-95 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Bracketed by 1.1527 100-HMA below cloud, 1.1546 200-HMA in cloud

• Option expiries today - 1.1550 E826 mln, 1.1575 E402 mln, 1.1650-65 E642 mln

• Likely to remain heavier than not on on-going Middle East conflict

• EUR/JPY indicated 184.09 in Asia, holding above 183.32-83 daily Ichi cloud

• Also above 183.88 200-HMA, 183.40-80 hourly cloud, 183.69 100-HMA

• EUR/GBP indicated 0.8723-25, at top of its 0.8705-21 daily Ichimoku cloud

• EUR/CHF last indicated 0.9214-16 EBS, just above its 0.9212-13 hourly cloud

• Related comments , , ,

• And , also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/USD:


EUR/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Lack of any news suggesting Iran de-escalation to keep US bid during Easter

• Trading to be thin, volume low with Tokyo only major market open today

• USD/JPY 159.50-59 EBS so far, follows post-Trump address rally to 159.74

• Resistance at yesterday's high, 159.97 high Tuesday, 160.47 peak Monday

• FX intervention risk seen higher on any USD/JPY moves higher

• Support from 159.48 hourly Ichimoku tenkan, kijun 159.15 below

• Descending 100-HMA 159.32, ascending 200-HMA 159.27, cloud 158.65-159.12

• Japanese importer bids eyed towards 159.00, some exporters up top from highs

• Nothing in way of large option expiries nearby on Good Friday today

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials in stasis too? Narrowing stopped for now

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also

• US markets , , ,

• Fed-speak , ,

• On US economy , , tariffs
USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research discusses the Fed policy trajectory in the light of the Iran war and high oil prices.

"Since the start of the Iran war, market pricing for the fed funds rate has swung sharply, and markets are now pricing a roughly 45% chance that the FOMC will hike in 2026 (vs. 12% before the war). We see hikes as much less likely than this for a few reasons," GS notes

"First, the current supply shock is smaller and narrower than prior shocks that caused inflation problems....Second, the economy’s starting point makes large spillovers to broader inflation unlikely.

Third, the starting point for monetary policy makes hiking less likely...Fourth, the Fed typically does not tighten in response to oil shocks alone," GS adds.

The dollar drew haven support on Thursday from surging oil prices with President Donald Trump warning Iran to make a deal “before it is too late” after threatening further strikes on Wednesday. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned of more retaliatory strikes if there are further attacks on Iranian industries. Separately, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discussed the Middle East crisis, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also spoke with Iran on Strait of Hormuz navigation risks. OPEC+ is likely to weigh a further oil output increase when eight members meet on Sunday, two OPEC+ sources said. WTI oil pulled back from its session high near $114/bbl after Iran state media said it was drafting a monitoring protocol with Oman for traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said the economic outlook is quite uncertain though the central bank will respond with appropriate policy changes. Logan also laid out paths for the U.S. central bank to reduce the size of its balance sheet and said private-credit risks remain contained but warrant monitoring following Blue Owl’s move to cap redemptions in two retail-focused funds. In data, jobless claims fell in the latest week while a separate report showed the trade deficit widened less than forecast in February. The March jobs report is slated for Friday.

The dollar index held above its 21-day moving average, but momentum was restrained by thin holiday liquidity and muted positioning ahead of the weekend.

EUR/USD fell in risk-off trade, with a falling RSI and move below its 21-day moving average leaving bearish technical signals in place.

USD/JPY held a modest gain near the top of the 158.55–159.74 range as oil supports the dollar and geopolitics keep risks elevated, with the move above its 21-day moving average putting 160 in focus. GBP remained under pressure into the weekend amid fragile risk sentiment and ongoing geopolitical noise, with rebounds lacking conviction despite seasonally stronger tailwinds.

AUD/USD rebounded from overnight lows but downside momentum persists and falling RSIs keep the near-term bias cautious despite a potentially constructive candle. Treasury yields eased up to 2 basis point;s with the 2s-10s curve holding steady at +51.1bp.

The S&P 500 fell 0.11%. WTI rose over 10% as supply worries caused significant backwardation of the curve.

Gold fell 1.9% while copper slipped 0.9%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.43%, USD/JPY +0.53%, GBP/USD -0.61%, AUD/USD -0.29%, DXY +0.36%, EUR/JPY +0.08%, GBP/JPY -0.10%, AUD/JPY +0.19%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

• NY opened near 0.6865 after AUD/USD fell overnight on risk-off sentiment

• The pair extended the drop, hit 0.6860 then stalled, buyers then emerged

• Report that Iran & Oman are drafting a protocol for the Strait of Hormuz emerged

• Risk-on took hold; US$, US yields fell and oil eroded some gains

• USD/CNH erased much if its earlier gains while gold, silver, stocks moved upward

• AUD/USD rallied toward the 10-DMA, hit 0.6918, before pulling back a bit

• The pair neared 0.6905 late in the day and traded down only -0.32%

• Long lower wick on today's candle may worry bears but falling RSIs give comfort
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses its USD/CAD outlook and targets.

"Although we recently made a number of forecast revisions in G10 FX, for 2026, we kept our CAD profile unchanged.. We keep our USDCAD forecast at 1.38 for first half of the year, and see the pair modestly drop back to 1.36 to end the year as economic conditions in Canada improve and trade uncertainty finally fades  In general, such a profile also fits our general broader expectations for near-term USD-upside, followed by a return to modest USD depreciation in H2 and into 2027," BofA notes.

"Forecast: expect more backloaded USD/CAD depreciation in 2026 No changes. We keep our forecast at 1.38 for first half of the year and see the pair falling again to 1.36 for 2026 year-end. In muted form, such a path for CAD follows our general USD outlook, where we expect some further near-term strength, but softening in H2 and over the longer term in 2027," BofA adds.

By Justin McQueen

Apr 2 (Reuters) - Risk assets are following the wartime playbook, heading into the weekend offered as markets trim exposure and layer on geopolitical risk hedges. In FX, that has led to a firmer USD, briefly dragging cable through 1.32. Still a headline-driven tape though, so conditions remain skittish and conviction light.

Oil remains the real-time geo barometer, which is not far from the $120 swing high. This level is significant and a clean topside break would signal a regime where market psychology flips from supply shock to demand shock narrative.

It's worth noting that in 2022, the $139 swing high in Brent was never taken out. A break of $120 would be key difference from 2022 and likely the catalyst for the next leg lower in risk. For GBP, weakness would likely show up against both USD and JPY.

One thing to keep an eye on is that GBP is rolling into its seasonally strongest window, with April historically the best month for the currency. The usual caveats apply, seasonals should not be used in isolation, especially in this environment. But if and when the geo noise fades and the dust settles, it is an informative tailwind for any short-term mean-reversion.
Avg GBP perf


Average SPX day


(stin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own) ((Email: ))

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses its NZD/USD outlook and targets.

"We are maintaining our upward path for NZD/USD during 2026 seeing that the RBNZ will be forced to raise rates as the second-round inflationary effects from the Middle East crisis emerge in H226. The net share of NZ businesses looking to pass on their higher costs to consumers is growing. The RBNZ is staying dovish longer than we expected, however, and growth is rebounding a little less strongly than we anticipated," CACIB notes.

"So, we are revising down our NZD/USD forecast profile with the rally starting from a lower base. We now forecast NZD/USD to reach 0.60 in Q2 (previously 0.62) and 0.63 by end-2026 (previously 0.65). We leave our NZD/USD outlook for 2027 unchanged," CACIB adds.

• Ether fell sharply due to risk-off driven by Pres. Trump's threat to Iran

• Investors scramble to look for safe-assets, the US$ was the beneficiary

• USD/CNH rallied above 6.9035 while stocks, gold, silver traded lower

• Big rallies in oil helped to underpin the risk-off trading sentiment

• Ether fell below the 10- & 50-DMAs, daily & monthly RSIs turned downward

• Ether trades within February's range, suggests consolidation phase persists

• Bear flag continuation pattern on daily chart reinforces bearish signals

• If geopolitical tensions increase risk could sour more & Ether may fall further
eth


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research discusses the worst case scenarios for the Iran conflict and its implications for the USD.

"In a severe scenario, the conflict drags on and attacks on energy production infrastructure increase in scale which extends the timeline of supply disruption. Brent crude oil could then trade in a higher range of USD 120-160p/bl that results in increased risks of global recession," MUFG notes.

Equity markets fall more sharply and the ToT and yield dynamic impacting FX fades and there is a stronger initial flight to the US dollar. The DXY in this scenario could extend higher up to the 105-level,"MUFG adds.

ANZ Research discusses the scope for Japan's MoF intervention or coordinated intervention in USD/JPY.

"We view the threshold for intervention as likely to be somewhat above 160, potentially around 164, which USD/JPY could approach if oil prices exceed USD120/bbl. Intervention also becomes more probable if the currency pair moves rapidly in a disorderly fashion.

With the USD currently displaying greater strength, there may be an increased likelihood of coordinated intervention should the upward movement in USD/JPY persist. BoJ’s March meeting minutes were hawkish," ANZ notes.

"Overall, we see USD/JPY remain within a 156-164 range in the coming weeks depending on how the conflict evolves from here," ANZ adds.

(corrects day on 4th bullet)

• Cable falls to 1.3183 as safe-haven dollar strengthens on Trump's Iran threats

• 1.3183 is the lowest level since Tuesday (1.3345 was Wednesday's high)

• U.S. stock futures tumble as Trump signals more Iran strikes

• 1.3172 and 1.3160 (Tuesday's four-month low) are GBP/USD support points

• UK firms report biggest jump in price expectations since April 2024, BoE survey shows

• BofA expects BoE rate hikes in June and July, then three rate cuts in 2027

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Pres. Trump threat to continue bombing Iran droves risk-off sentiment

• Oil rallied significantly which drove yields

higher

• Gold , silver , copper & stocks all traded lower

• The US$ went bid on its safe-haven status which drove AUD/USD downward

• The pair traded back belwo the 10- DMA & daily cloud base, traded 0.6941-0.6863

• NY opened with the pair trading just off that overnight low, pair was down -0.96%

• Techs lean bearish; RSIs are falling & a monmthly inverted hammer candle is in place
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of copper miners fall premarket, tracking lower prices of the red metal [MET/L]

• Benchmark three-month copper on London Metal Exchange down 1.06% at $12,305 a metric ton

• Copper prices fall for the first time in five sessions, weighed down by renewed concerns over economic growth after U.S. President Donald Trump vowed more strikes on Iran and gave no specific timeline on ending the conflict

• Shares of Global mining giants Rio Tinto and BHP Group fall 2.6% and 3.1%, respectively

• Copper miners Southern Copper and Freeport-McMoRan down 3.6% and 3.2%, respectively

• Canada's Hudbay Minerals , slides 4.2%, Ero Copper , down 2.7% and Teck Resources , falls 4.1%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD falls to 0.6867 as global stock losses weigh on risk-sensitive AUD

• Kospi down 4.47%; Nikkei down 2.38%. European shares fall more than 1%

• 0.6867 is the lowest level since Tuesday (0.6963 was one-week high Wednesday)

• Support points include 0.6834 (nine-week low, Monday-Tuesday) and 0.6800

• Australia February good trade surplus A$5.7 billion vs A$2.85 billion

• U.S. March NFP data due on Good Friday; 60k expected (Reuters poll)

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable drops to 1.3202 as safe-haven dollar rises after Trump vows more strikes on Iran

• 1.3202 is the lowest level since Tuesday (1.3345 was intra-week high Wednesday)

• Oil prices jump, stocks sink on Trump's Iran war guidance

• GBP/USD support points include 1.3172 and 1.3160 (Tuesday's four-month low)

• 1.3172 was Ldn/NY session low Tuesday (after quarter-end fix-related selling of GBP)

• JPMorgan no longer expects BoE to hike on April 30, after dovish Bailey guidance

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD was falling from 1.2084 toward 1.1700 before Iran conflict

• The 1.0125-1.2084 rise had become stretched and traders very long euro

• A minor correction of that rise was highly likely to unfold

• The target for a minor correction is 1.1336

• Traders long euro before this week's rally are likely longer of euros now

• While war endures there is a heightened chance that pair reaches 1.1336

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Savannah Goldfields rise as much as 33.3% to A$0.016, their biggest intraday pct gain since October 1, 2025

• Stock set for its second consecutive session of gains, if current trend holds

• Gold explorer says it recommenced gold processing operations at its Georgetown Gold Project in Australia on March 27

• Says resumption of mining at Agate Creek in Georgetown to commence in Q2 CY2026

• Stock down 21.1% YTD

(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• EUR/USD off from early Asia high of 1.1605 to 1.1544 EBS post-Trump speak

• Trump suggested possible escalation, prolongation of Iran conflict

• Risk mood deteriorates fast, USD back bid

• EUR/USD testing towards ascending hourly Ichimoku cloud between 1.1510-38

• 200-HMA at 1.1548 pierced to downside, 100-HMA 1.1525 in cloud

• Total E2.7 bln option expiries today between 1.1500-40 likely supportive

• Above, E1.1 bln E1.2 expiries 1.1590-1.1600, also 1.1650 E1.3 bln, to cap?

• EUR/JPY 183.84-184.05 EBS, mostly in stasis, both JPY and EUR weaker vs USD

• EUR/CHF too, 0.9195-0.9205 EBS, follows 0.8981-0.9266 Thursday-Tuesday rally

• EUR/GBP tad better bid, 0.8712-18, up from 0.8705 low yesterday

• Related , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/USD hourly:


EUR/CHF hourly:


EUR/GBP hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Risk off again, Trump suggests conflict escalation, prolongation in address

• Most major currencies down on back of this, USD bid again

• EUR/USD from early Asia high of 1.1605 pre-address to 1.1546 EBS after

• Holding above this low for now, 200-HMA at 1.1549 pierced briefly

• 100-HMA 1.1525 below, in ascending hourly Ichimoku cloud between 1.1510-35

• EUR/USD sogginess likely to persist, perhaps increase when Europe returns

• Related , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/USD hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)