Bank of America Global Research discusses USD/JPY outlook in the near- and long term,

"With the general election now out of the way, the market's focus for USD/JPY shifts squarely to the prospect of FX intervention. Our intervention watch‑zone remains unchanged at 157-160. While intervention concerns are likely to cap upside in USD/JPY, structural yen‑selling flows mean such caution alone is unlikely to halt depreciation, and the probability of actual FX intervention remains high," BofA notes.

"Over the longer term, yen‑weakening risks remain firmly in place. But in the near term, the combination of potential intervention and scope for the market to further price in BoJ hikes at the March and April meetings skews the risk‑reward for USD/JPY to the downside. Ahead of the fiscal year‑end, current spot levels offer Japanese corporates a reasonably attractive opportunity to add to their yen‑buying hedge positions," BofA adds.

• NY opened near 0.7060 after 0.7075 traded overnight, the pair's slide extended early

• US$ was bought early while stocks , gold , silver

dropped

• AUD/USD hit a 6-session high of 0.7028, buyers then emerged as risk improved

• USD/CNH sllid from its 6.8922 high while gold, silver, stocks moved upward

• AUD/USD rallied back above the 10-DMA and neared 0.7070 in NY's afternoon

• The pair dipped slightly, sat near 0.7060 late, was down only -0.20%

• Daily RSI is falling but monthly is rising, daily bull hammer formed after 10-DMA pierced
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Nomura Research previews this week's February RBNZ meeting.

"We are confident the RBNZ will announce an unchanged cash rate of 2.25% this week. If it chooses to publish a vote count, we would expect a unanimous decision.

Communication should continue to pivot in a more hawkish direction, reflecting stronger growth and CPI inflation data, and its updated cash rate path (accordingly) will likely indicate an earlier commencement of a rate hike cycle," Nomura notes.

"This will be the first board meeting under new RBNZ Governor Dr Anna Breman, so we flag potential for a few surprises or a change in communication style," Nomura adds.

• Shares of copper miners fall, tracking prices of the red metal

• Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange down 1.4% at $12,673 per metric ton

• Copper prices fall as a stronger dollar and rising inventories in London Metal Exchange-registered warehouses pressured the market, which was operating with thin trading volumes due to the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday [MET/]

• Global mining giant Rio Tinto down 3.1%

• Southern Copper drops ~6%; Freeport-McMoRan

falls 4.4%

• Canada's Teck Resources down 3%, Hudbay Minerals plunges 6.1% and Ero Copper dips 5.5%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

Goldman Sachs Research revised higher its AUD/USD forecasts.

"Our economists see one additional hike from the RBA in May. Further RBA hawkishness should be supportive of a stronger backdrop for AUD, especially versus USD, which has seen headwinds from both policy and softer data," GS notes.

"As a result, we are raising our AUD/USD forecasts to 0.72, 0.73, and 0.74 in 3, 6, and 12 months (from 0.68, 0.69, and 0.70)," GS adds.

Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish bias on EUR/USD and looks to buy dips below 1.1750.

"Risks remain asymmetrically skewed toward USD downside. Robust US labor market data may support risk currencies versus USD but may make it more difficult for the DXY to fall as investors prefer other funders," MS notes.

"EUR/USD risks remain clearly skewed to the upside, in our view, though we think current levels are less attractive for long positions to enter; a pullback to below 1.1750 would be an attractive entry level," MS adds.

• Cable fell to 1.3553, its lowest level since Feb 6, as GBP weakened on UK data

• UK jobless rate rises to 5.2%, five-year high; UK wage growth cools

• Data raises probability of BoE rate cut in March (UK CPI data due Wednesday)

• GBP/USD recovery rally from 1.3553 topped out at 1.36065 (Asia low, pre-UK data)

• Farage's Reform UK names ex-Tory Robert Jenrick as its finance policy chief

• Reform is expected to do well at UK local-level elections in May

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of silver miners fall premarket, tracking prices of the white metal [GOL/]

• Spot silver falls 2.5% to $74.63/ounce as stronger dollar pressures prices

• Demand for precious metals cools as investors track cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and await clarity on U.S.-Iran talks

• Hecla Mining down 3.5%; Coeur Mining slips 3.4%

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver and Silvercorp Metals drop ~4% and 3.1%, respectively

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF down 2.7%; iShares Silver Trust ETF dips 3.3%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

(Adds codes for gold) The crash in gold from a record high of $5,595/oz to $4,404/oz should invoke caution in FX markets, as it shows what can happen to crowded trades when buyers become careless. Yet currency traders have not heeded the warning, heavily adding to favoured bets - such as a rise in the euro - only to see it fall.

Traders who were betting about $16 billion on the euro rising before gold tumbled were betting almost $27 billion on the same outcome soon after. This is the second-largest bullish wager on record and, like the $31 billion record long in 2020, it may lead to a correction.

What's certain is that traders long euro must eventually sell. The more euros added to a bullish wager, the greater its drag. Every other large position like the one held today has been followed by a significant EUR/USD drop.

After longs exceeded $23 billion in 2018, EUR/USD slumped. The pair also fell in 2021 after bets exceeded $31 billion in 2020, and more recently a sharp drop followed soon after a $25 billion position was established in 2023.

While the reversal from this year's EUR/USD high at 1.2084 in January has been slight - reaching 1.1766 in February - traders have continued to buy. The net long has grown by $10 billion since January 22 and by $7 billion since EUR/USD hit this year's peak.

In short, many more euros have been added to the net long near the top of a strong rise. Traders rushed in and were willing to buy high, only to see the pair fail to sustain a move above 1.20 and slip back. As a result, a much larger bullish position is now in place—either hindering further gains or potentially fuelling a deeper drop.
EURUSD and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Monday's bounce proves short-lived with USD/JPY slipping back below 153

• As flagged, the broader backdrop favours recently established yen longs

• Risk sentiment remains cautious and real yields are drifting lower - reinforces a firmer yen

• Strength should be more pronounced on the crosses (vs CAD, GBP and EUR)

• For USD/JPY focus remains for a retest of the post-NY Fed rate check low at 152.10

• A break through here exposes 150 with stronger support at 147.45/149 (Oct election gap)
USD/JPY daily chart


USDJPY vs 10 real yield


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• AUD/USD has traded a 28.5 pip range thus far Tuesday; 0.7075 = intra-day high

• Intra-day low is three pips above Friday's base (low since 3-year top Thursday)

• RBA minutes said Australia central bank sees no set path for future rates

• AUD jumped after RBA raised rates on Feb 3 (next RBA rate decision March 17)

• CFTC data showed net AUD long rose to 33,209 contracts in week to Feb 10

• Australian January jobs data due on Thursday; 20k rise in employment expected

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Natural gas falls just below $3 mmbtu which is the lowest point this year

• The low traded in 2025 was $2.6 mmbtu, record low in 2024 was roughly $1.5

• The eurozone imports gas while the U.S. exports

• Gas prices are well correlated with EUR/USD and eurozone current account

• Cheaper gas will support EUR/USD which recently failed to sustain rise over 1.20

• EUR/USD traders may have run into a bull trap

•
Natural gas


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable falls to 1.3572 as pound weakens on UK pay growth, jobs data

• Headline pay growth up 4.2% vs 4.6% expected. ILO jobless rate 5.2%

• 1.3572 is the lowest level since Feb 6. 1.3607 was Asia low, pre-UK data

• UK data is boost for doves advocating BoE rate cut to 3.5% in March

• January inflation figures due on Wednesday; CPI expected to fall to 3.0% YY

• UK government drops plans to delay May council votes, adding to pressure over U-turns

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY lower still as Tokyo trading coming to a close

• After early blip up to 153.75, USD/JPY wilts, through 153.00 to 152.76

• Japanese exporters, others seen to be good sellers from high

• Descending 100-HMA currently at 153.12, then 153.02-06 cloud pierced

• Large, $801 mln in option expiries today between 152.50-55 supportive?

• Supports too at 152.57 low yesterday, 152.28 low February 12

• Then 152.10-20 double bottom January 27-28 and around 152.00

• 151.97 Fibo 38.2% of 139.89-159.45 April '24-January '26 move

• Breaks lower below these supports could see 150, 50% of above move at 149.66

• Promise of higher Japanese yields behind yen gains?

• BOJ also expected to hike despite weak Q4 GDP, Totan ICAP 51% possibility

• Related , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.2% Tue, market activity subdued due to CN New Year closures

• RBA sees less downside risk in jobs market, still a bit tight & costs high

• Further rate cuts data dependent, no predetermined pathway for OCR

• AUD needs new catalyst to inspire challenge of 0.7158 resistance

• U.S. Dec durable goods & Jan industrial production data due Wed

• Range Asia 0.70525-75, support 0.6900 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD -0.1% Tue in subdued CN New Year impacted Asia trading

• UK Dec unemployment update due Tue, Reuters poll consensus 5.2%

• UK Prime Minister Starmer flags possible acceleration in defence spending

• Trump highly critical of UK/California clean energy agreement

• U.S. Dec durable goods & Jan industrial production data due Wed

• GBP's Feb downswing continues, break below 1.3500 would invigorate bears

• Range Asia 1.3614-26, support 1.3505-10 1.3321, resistance 1.3867 1.4250
GBP Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY on the back-foot in thin Asia trading, 153.75 early to 153.06 EBS

• Uptick early firmly rejected, Japanese exporters, others on offer from high

• Spot through descending 100-HMA at 153.15 briefly, still in area

• Test of now ascending hourly Ichimoku cloud between 152.98-153.02 possible

• Cloud break could seen test towards 152.57 low yesterday, 152.28 January 12

• Little in way of fresh news today, market thin on regional holidays

• Related , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD marginally lower Tue after RBA minutes explain Feb rate hike

• RBA sees less downside risk in jobs market, still a bit tight & costs high

• CN New Year holidays will constrain activity across Asia markets

• AUD requires fresh inspiration to enable challenge of 0.7158 resistance

• U.S. Dec durable goods & Jan industrial production data due Wed

• Range Asia 0.70665-75, support 0.6900 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY remained bid in thin overnight trading but still on lower plane

• Yesterday saw rally from 152.57 to 153.62 EBS on weak Japan GDP data

• Asia so far 153.35-68, close to top of 152.28-153.76 range since Feb 12

• Tokyo fix Japanese importer demand eyed again but exporters eyed too

• Could help cap pair ahead of 154.00, other sales also seen likely

• Techs in area include 200-HMA above at 154.76, 100-HMA below at 153.17

• Wafter thin hourly Ichimoku cloud 152.91-153.02 also below

• In options, large expiries today between 152.50-55, at 153.00, 154.30-60

• Aside from Japan data yesterday, no other pressing reasons to sell yen

• Little in way of news from BOJ Ueda-PM Takaichi meeting yesterday

• BOJ seen on course for another rate hike perhaps in April, Totan ICAP 51%

• Another quiet Asia session eyed with Lunar New Year holidays in region

• China, Hong Kong and Singapore among centres closed today

• Related comments , , also

• European markets , , ,

• On Ueda-Takaichi meeting , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD -0.2% from Mon 1.36615 high as U.S. markets close for holiday

• UK Prime Minister Starmer considering accelerated defence spending increase

• Trump highly critical of UK/California clean energy agreement

• CN New Year holidays will keep market activity subdued across Asia

• UK Dec unemployment update due Tue, Reuters poll consensus 5.2%

• U.S. Dec durable goods & Jan industrial production data due Wed

• Range Asia 1.36265-319, support 1.3505-10 1.3321, resistance 1.3867 1.4250
GBP Weekly 52-WMA


GBP Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD flat late Mon as U.S. Presidents Day holiday restrains activity

• RBA Feb monetary policy meeting minutes due for release 0030 GMT

• Market likely to be reminded of RBA's overtly hawkish stance

• Refreshed AUD buying would enable challenge of 0.7158 resistance

• CN New Year holidays will subdue market activity across Asia

• U.S. Dec durable goods & Jan industrial production data due Wed

• Overnight range 0.70675-965, support 0.6900 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Cable has traded a 32.5 pip range since the London open; 1.3629 = session low

• Session high is 1.5 pips beyond Friday peak; 8.5 pips shy of Thursday top

• UK government abandons plan to postpone 30 local council elections in May

• Abandoned plan is great news for Farage's Reform UK, which leads opinion polls

• UK jobs/pay data due Tuesday at 0700 GMT; jobless rate forecast to rise to 5.2%

• Forty-one out of 63 economists polled by Reuters expect BoE rate cut in March

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/GBP continues to trade in relatively tight ranges as domestic political noise fades

• Though despite the dip back below 0.87, downside traction remains limited

• Lingering political risks surrounding Starmer's leadership will remain a GBP headwind

• This dynamic should keep EUR/GBP supported, with buyers emerging on dips toward 0.86

• Near-term support stands at 0.8660, marking the 200-day MAs

• On the topside, resistance sits at 0.8745-50 - a clean break would open up 0.88

• For now, consolidation is the name of the game as eyes turn to upcoming UK data for direction

• Reminder - UK jobs (Tue), CPI (Wed), Retail sales, flash PMIs (Fri)
EURGBP daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

(Typo corrected in author name)

• Cable broadly consolidating as political noise surrounding Starmer's future eases off

• That said, lingering political risks should keep topside contained

• Renewed flare ups will also likely see GBP come under renewed pressure again

• Gorton and Denton by-election on February 26 could serve as a fresh catalyst

• On the policy front, BoE's Mann sounded less hawkish, shifting focus towards sluggish jobs market

• Note that Mann was already more nuanced at the Feb meeting, suggesting the hawkish camp is fracturing

• BoE March cut odds sit at 70%, which leaves GBP vulnerable to downside surprises [0#GBPIRPR]

• Key data ahead - UK jobs (Tue), CPI (Wed), Retail sales, flash PMIs (Fri)
BoE pricing


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own) ((Email: ))