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Mar 19 - 09:48 PM
GBP/USD - To Consolidate Monday's Gains, Await Date
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 19 - 07:50 PM
  • Cable barely changed in early Asia after rallying 0.6% Monday
  • Brexit transition deal well received by FX market nL8N1R13AW
  • Next resistance 1.4104/45 61.8 Fibo and Feb 18 high, o/n high 1.4088
  • Initial support seen at previous daily highs in 1.3980/00 zone
  • S/t MAs supportive of cable, but plenty more event risk this week
  • UK data kicks off with Feb inflation today, jobs data Weds nL1N1R10SA

GBP daily: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 19 - 08:36 PM
USD/JPY - Steady Around 106 As EUR/JPY Buys Offset Risk-Off
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 19 - 06:45 PM
  • USD/JPY opens Asia steady around 106.00 despite selloff in risk assets
  • Offsetting falls in equities, EM and commodities was EUR/JPY short covering
  • Reuters report indicating ECB on tightening track sent EUR/JPY higher
  • Resistance at 10-day MA at 106.29 while support formed at 105.60/70
  • Tokyo flows to dictate direction as focus shifts to Wednesday's FOMC

usd/jpy: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 19 - 05:00 PM
EUR/CHF: A Tad Higher Towards 1.18 In 1-Month Ahead Of An Eventual Break Above 1.20 - Danske
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 19 - 03:00 PM

Danske Research discusses EUR/CHF outlook and thinks that the pair is likely to trade a tad higher, looking for 1.18 in 1-month ahead of an eventual break above 1.20 over the coming months.

"In our view the market currently ignores that the road to exit for the SNB entails more steps than that of the ECB and we are not there yet. However, with EUR/CHF still not on a sustainable path above 1.20, risking the recovery with exit talk is not a route we deem the SNB will want to go down.

We think the SNB will remain on the sidelines on further steps towards ‘normalisation’ for now, which should allow EUR/CHF to edge firmly into the 1.20s this year amid a continued ECB ‘normalisation’ process," Danske argues. 

Danske Research
Mar 19 - 02:36 PM
USD/JPY - Bound For Another Look At 105.00
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 19 - 01:10 PM
  • USD/JPY trying to hold last week's lows (105.59) on equity selloff
  • Bid in EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY mitigating damage
  • Spec JPY shorts cut for fourth week but USD/JPY still trades long, trapped
  • World looking at stops below 105.00, feels inevitable

USDJPY: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 19 - 01:24 PM
EUR/USD: Range-Bound With 1.22 As A Mid-Point; A Hawkish FOMC Likely This Week - Barclays
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 19 - 11:15 AM

Barclays Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and expects Wednesday’s FOMC meeting to be the main driver this week.

"Markets have fully priced a 25bp rate hike for this meeting and attention will centre on the Fed’s projections and dot plot. In that respect, we expect a relatively hawkish message from the FOMC with 20bp increases to the median funds rate in 2019 and 2020, modest upward revisions to inflation and limited concern, at least in the near term, of rising trade tensions, likely providing some near-term support to the USD.

We maintain our view of a broadly range-bound EURUSD, with a mid-point of 1.22," Barclays argues. 

Barclays Research
Mar 19 - 12:12 PM
GBP/USD - COMMENT-Brexit-Boosted GBP/USD Is Likely Near Its Highs
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 19 - 09:50 AM

News of a possible post-Brexit transition deal boosted the pound today, but the future toll that will be exacted on Britain's economy from leaving the EU means cable is probably a sell at these levels.
While the UK may have avoided Brexit disaster, it's worth remembering that the overwhelming majority of traders sold GBP when voters in the UK decided to leave the European Union in the 2016 referendum.
While cable mounted a recovery over the last year, broad dollar weakness contributed significantly to sterling's gains.
It's worth noting that more GBP is traded speculatively versus the dollar than any other currency and many traders only view the pound via GBP/USD.
It would, therefore, take an impressive pair of rose-tinted glasses to justify cable's gains in recent months as a vote of confidence in Brexit.
The wider performance of the pound, still 10% weaker since the referendum, and big interest rate moves favouring the dollar are cause to think GBP/USD is close to mid/long-term highs.

GBPUSD vs benchmark bond yields Click here

GBP TWI Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 19 - 11:00 AM
AUD/USD: 'Triple Threat' This Week - Credit Agricole
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 19 - 09:14 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses AUD outlook and adopts a bearish bias in the near-term.

1- "Iron ore is down by over 15% from its peak this year and we continue to think that its heads to USD50-60 per tonne this year. The main concern for the AUD with US protectionism is if the US ramps up protectionism against China and leads retaliation, which has so far not been the case," CACIB notes. 

2- "Nerves may grow on this front, however, around the G20 Summit and with these nerves the downward pressure on the AUD," CACIB argues. 

3- "Interest rates will also come into further play for the AUD this week. Tensions in US money markets are already placing downward pressure on the AUD and the FOMC meeting could push UST yields higher and further add to interest rate pressures on the AUD," CACIB adds. 

Locally, CACIB notes that the Australian labor market out Thursday will be the main local focus for the AUD this week where the breakdown of likely further solid jobs growth as well as the unemployment rate will attract most of the market’s attention.

Crédit Agricole Research
Mar 19 - 08:36 AM
GBP/USD - Bulls Have Green Light For 30-Day Upper Bolli-Band
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 19 - 06:50 AM
  • GBP/USD flies with bulls focused on 30-day upper bolli-band now at 1.4072
  • Fourteen-day momentum has the potential to register a positive reading Mon
  • Would be first time since last Wed the market would record positive momentum
  • Our 1.3960 short is in trouble, but our stop is protected by the bolli-band
  • Stop just above the 30-day upper bolli-band which may cap latest gains

GBP/USD Trader:

Daily Fibo Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 19 - 07:24 AM
GBP/USD - Up To Threaten 1.40 On Brexit Deal Talk
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 19 - 06:05 AM
  • GBP continues to benefit from Brexit deal talk pre-Barnier/Davis meeting
  • See: nL8N1R121W. Cable up to 1.3985 intra-day high vs 1.3913 late Asia low
  • EUR/GBP under 0.8800 for the first time this month: 0.8780 was Feb 28 low
  • Offers ahead of 1.40 capped GBP/USD gains last week (Tuesday through Friday)
  • Stops are tipped above 1.4000: bull targets include 1.4070 (Feb 26 high)
  • COMMENT-Pound to react to imminent Brexit news conference nL1N1R107Q

GBPUSD: Click here

EURGBP: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 19 - 06:12 AM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-Risk Aversion Is Rising So EUR/USD May Drop
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 19 - 03:50 AM

The chance of a EUR/USD drop is high as currency markets are exhibiting signs of risk aversion, which may lead to unwinding of very big and more costly bets on a further rise.
With EUR/USD largely 1.2200-1.2400 for over a month, those betting on a EUR/USD rise are not making the easy money they were at the start of the year but are having to pay more to hold their bullish bets, so the chance of a reduction of longs is high.
Speculators hold EUR18.4 bln of bullish bets with EUR2.4 bln of those bets made in the last month.
In this period of relative stasis the cost for those long has risen dramatically with the one-month forward swap rising by 50% to 33 pips.
With EUR/USD pushing towards the lower end of the recent range, many of these fresh bets are losing and all of those long are paying more for the privilege, cutting into any existing profits.

EUR/USD vs vols, forward swap and positions Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 19 - 03:48 AM
USD/JPY - Soggy Into Europe, Nikkei Closes Off 0.9%
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 19 - 02:15 AM
  • Risk certainly not on and limited upside on US yields, USD/JPY heavy.
  • From Tokyo fix high of 106.15, USD/JPY down to 105.68, 105.61 low Friday.
  • Bids still eyed from @105.50, trail down to 105.00 option KOs.
  • Stops sub-105.00 large however, specs eyeing break to jump on bandwagon.
  • Option expiries today - 104.95-105.00 USD600 mln, 105.15-60 651 mln.
  • Upside capped from @106.00 currently, option expiries 106.00-60 1.3 bln+.

USD/JPY: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 19 - 02:36 AM
AUD/USD - Creeping Lower, Set For Further Weakness
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 19 - 12:55 AM
  • AUD/USD inches below 77 cents on broad USD strength, risk-off in Asia
  • Low so far 0.7690, next target the 76.4 Fibo at 0.7651
  • Overall looks set for test of weekly t/l from 2016 at 0.7593 this week
  • Bounces likely limited in current environment, 100 DMA at 0.7776 looks safe
  • AUD/JPY also edging through key support at 81.40/50, 50% and 2017 low

AUD weekly: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 19 - 01:24 AM
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 18 - 11:40 PM

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): EUR is expected to move lower and test the strong 1.2200 support.

The ease of which EUR took out the strong 1.2270 support was not exactly expected. As highlighted last Friday (16 Mar, spot at 1.2305), a break of this level would indicate that the immediate pressure has shifted to the downside. While we are not ready to adopt a fullfledged bearish stance just yet, we expect EUR to move lower from here and test the next strong support at 1.2200. Only a move back above 1.2385 would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased. On a shorter-term note, 1.2345 is already a strong resistance.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 07 Mar 18, 1.3895): Upward pressure has eased, GBP is back in consolidation phase.

GBP dipped below the strong 1.3895 support and as highlighted last Friday (16 Mar), a breach of this level would indicate that the mild upward pressure has eased and that GBP has moved into a consolidation phase. In other words, we continue to hold a neutral outlook but we expect GBP to trade sideways from here, likely within a 1.3840/1.4000 range.

AUD/USD:  Neutral (since 15 Feb 18, 0.7925): Clear break of 0.7715/20 would indicate the start of a bearish phase.

The solid support zone highlighted at 0.7715/25 is being tested sooner than expected and a clear break of this level would indicate that the month-long neutral phase has ended and a move towards 0.7630 has started. This appears to be a likely scenario unless AUD can move and stay above 0.7770 within these few days.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): Scope for a probe of the major 0.7175/85 support zone.

There is not much to add to last Friday’s update (16 Mar, spot at 0.7275) wherein we hold the view that there is scope for NZD to probe the major 0.7175/85 support zone. That said, the continuing sharp and rapid decline was unexpected as NZD lost about -1.6% over last Thursday and Friday, the largest 2-day decline since early February. While the 0.7175/85 support zone is expected to offer solid support, a break of this zone is not ruled out and would indicate that NZD has moved into a bearish phase. The odds for such a move are not that high at this stage but would increase quickly unless NZD can reclaim 0.7300 (0.7265 is already quite a strong resistance level).

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): A retest of 105.25 seems likely.

USD dipped below our expected 105.70/107.50 consolidation last Friday and hit a low of 105.59. While the decline lacks momentum, the undertone has weakened and from here, a retest of the month-to-date low of 105.25 seems likely. At this stage, the prospect for a clear break of this level is not high. Overall, only a move back above 106.80 would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased.

UOB Research
Mar 19 - 12:12 AM
USD/JPY - Soggy, Upside Limited To 106.15, Off Later
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 18 - 10:45 PM
  • USD/JPY up some early to 106.15 but extent of upside, to 105.75 later.
  • Inside day eyed in Asia, Friday range 105.61-106.38.
  • Descending 55-HMA now down to 105.99, 100-HMA 106.26 above - heavy ahead.
  • Daily Ichi tenkan at 106.37 likely cap for now.
  • Some bids from @105.50, trail down to 105.00 option KOs, stops large below.
  • Nikkei off 0.89% at 21,463 as of TSE AM close, US Treasury 10s @2.853%.

USD/JPY: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 18 - 11:00 PM
EUR/USD - Under Some Pressure In Early Asia
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 18 - 08:50 PM
  • EUR/USD under pressure after trading as high as 1.2303 earlier
  • It is trading below the 55-day MA at 1.2284 after closing above that reading
  • Support at the 61.8 of 1.2154/1.2446 move @ 1.2266 & Friday's 1.2260 low
  • A break below 1.2250 targets the March 1 trend low at 1.2156
  • Sentiment is bearish due to diverging cen bank expectations ahead of FOMC

eur/usd Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 18 - 09:48 PM
GBP/USD - Holds In Well, Needs To Break 1.40 Soon
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 18 - 07:55 PM
  • Cable opens at 1.3933 in Asia, bounces to 1.3949
  • Friday's selloff bounced well from 55 DMA which is at 1.3891 today
  • Quadruple top ahead of 1.40 the key for further gains, needs to break soon
  • Further resistance at the 50% retracement lvl at 1.4029, break targets 1.41
  • 5 and 10 DMAs head north, break above 21 DMA - supportive for further gains
  • Downward pressure in EUR/GBP has held cable up the last few sessions

GBP daily: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 18 - 08:36 PM
USD: FX Charts You Need To See: USD Bears Losing Their Grip
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 18 - 06:42 PM

The EUR/USD bull trade is still in strong hands but the grip is slipping as the trade stalls and the cost of carry continues to ratchet higher. U.S. and European yields diverged notably this week, primarily behind a break lower in Europe as markets reconsidered the ECB's weak inflation forecasts from the March 8 meeting. Meanwhile, benchmark treasury 2yr yields moved to the highest level since 2008 behind good data and rising expectations for upgraded rate projections from the Fed. The DXY ended higher for a fourth week but still trades poorly and will need to clear neckline resistance at 90.60 before USD bears get too concerned.

  • The 10yr US treasury-German bund spread moved to the widest since late 2016, a level that last corresponded with a sub-1.1000 EUR/USD. A lot has changed fundamentally since then (especially US deficits) but nonetheless it makes for a less compelling argument to stay long EUR here.


  • June 2019 Euribor futures breaking bullish. Any thought of an ECB rate hike in the next year appears to be completely out the window.


  • The AUD/USD finished at new lows on the year. Undoubtedly some worry about getting caught in the crossfire of any U.S.-China trade dispute. But the sharp turn lower in the entire high-beta FX complex could be a sign that the bear market in the larger USD is coming to an end.


EURUSD and US-DE 10yr Spread: Click here

June 9 Euribor: Click here

AUDUSD: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 18 - 05:00 PM
AUD/USD - Floored As Fed Expectations Eclipse WH Dissonance
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 18 - 02:50 PM
  • AUD/USD down 1% from Sydney close as investors look to Mar 20-21 Fed meeting
  • US economic data cements rate expectations, US-China trade spat takes toll
  • W.House machinations fuel growing risk aversion nL1N1R0078 nL1N1QZ0AT
  • Metals down, copper hits one-week low, Dalian iron -2.5% in evening session
  • Strong downward momentum to lead to 0.7651 test-76.4% of 0.7501-0.8136
  • Minor resistance @ 0.7735-40, strong @ 0.7770-75; AUD/JPY @ pivotal 81.42-46

AUD/USD: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 16 - 05:00 PM
GBP/USD: Are GBP Traders Underpricing Downside Risks? - CIBC
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 16 - 12:45 PM

CIBC Research discusses GBP outlook and advises caution on GBP around current levels.

"Call it Brexit-fatigue, or call it simple complacency, but it’s beginning to look like currency markets are underestimating downside risks to sterling.

Implied volatility has been falling and investors have almost fully priced in another hike from the Bank of England by May. However, there remains the possibility that next week’s EU Leaders Summit does not end in an agreement on Brexit transition/implementation. Furthermore, wage growth, while having accelerated, is still negative in real terms, with consumer discretionary spending also looking weak of late.

All this suggests more caution regarding sterling than is currently priced into markets, with the potential for Brexit and BoE disappointment very possible," CIBC argues. 

CIBC Research
Mar 16 - 02:36 PM
GBP/USD - Finds Support Ahead Of 55-DMA By 1.3880
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 16 - 12:20 PM
  • GBP/USD bounces off 1.3887 low by Lon fix, ends Lon session 1.3920
  • Pair offered after 1.3980 high in Europe, offered last 4 days pre-1.4000
  • Headwinds for GBP: UK-Russia politics related to spy attack, EU Summit, BoE
  • GBP/USD res 1.3941 30-HMA, 1.3949 daily pivot, 1.3980 Friday's high
  • Supt 1.3898 10-DMA, 55-DMA 1.3883, 1.3842 3/12 low, 1.3823 dly cloud base

Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
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