• U.S.-listed shares of gold miners fall premarket, tracking decline in bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold 1.4% at $4,617.67/ounce, its lowest level since April 7

• Bullion prices fall to three-week low as high oil prices fuel inflation worries and investors await central bank decisions on Middle East risks

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining down 1.8% and 1.5%, respectively

• South African miners Gold Fields down 1.6%, Harmony Gold falls 0.7% and AngloGold Ashanti decline 2.2%

• Canadian miners: Agnico Eagle Mines falls marginally and Kinross Gold dips 0.8%

(Reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru)

April 28 (Reuters) - Sterling traders are alert to British political risks as a Tuesday vote nears on whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer should face a Parliamentary probe over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as Britain's ambassador to the U.S. - as well as next week's local elections. Labour's large majority in Parliament means it would be a huge GBP-negative surprise if more lawmakers voted in favour of an inquiry into Starmer. The vote is expected this afternoon, hours after Starmer's former aide Morgan McSweeney answers questions from Parliament's foreign affairs committee about Mandelson's appointment.

If Starmer avoids the frying pan, he then faces a potential fire from Welsh parliament, Scottish Parliament and English local elections on May 7. If Labour performs abysmally in those elections, Starmer will be blamed - and the risk of a GBP-negative Labour leadership challenge will rise. Should a leadership challenge come to pass and Starmer exits Downing Street, the pound could weaken on fears that Labour could choose a successor from the soft left of the party who might pursue a looser fiscal policy.

Related:
GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD sinks to 1.1687 on Tuesday from 1.1754 on Monday

• Brent rises to $111 pb on Tuesday from $106 on Monday

• Brent has risen over $40/bbl during the conflict

• EUR/USD virtually unchanged and traders still betting on a rise

• Inflation in the pipeline, likely rate hikes and greater risk aversion

• An enduring war and much higher oil may soon affect currencies

•
EUR/USD little changed as oil rockets


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY dropped from 159.57 to 158.96, so far on Tuesday, according to EBS data

• Yen firms as BOJ holds in split vote, kicking off big week for central banks

• The BOJ left its policy rate as is at 0.75% but the vote was 6-3

• The market viewed this as hawkish, hold vote influenced by Econ Minister Kiuchi

• Note USD/JPY failed on four occasions in April to register a close below 158.49 Fibo

• A bear trap is set when a mkt breaks below a tech level but then reverses and is usually bullish

• 158.49 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 152.10-160.47 2026 (EBS) rise

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is well below +0.5 (relationship broken)

• Fin Min Katayama: Japan ready '24 hours' to act on currency swings

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable falls to 1.3512 as safe-haven dollar strengthens on higher oil prices

• Trump not happy with latest Iran proposal to end the war, U.S. official says

• 1.3512 is the lowest level since Monday's 1.3575 peak (high since April 17)

• UK PM Starmer faces vote on possible parliamentary probe over Mandelson

• Vote slated for this afternoon (BST), after ex-aide McSweeney speaks to MPs

• King Charles to promote UK-US unity in rare speech to Congress, at 1900 GMT

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD flat Tue as Middle East stalemate continues to keep markets edgy

• Oil prices creeping higher in Asia, Brent crude & WTI both +1.0%

• Iran's nuclear issue omission from peace proposal roils Trump

• AUD needs fresh catalyst to prompt challenge of 0.7250-85 resistance

• Critical AU Q1 CPI due Wed (poll +4.2% y/y), will clarify RBA OCR pathway

• U.S. Apr consumer confidence due Tue, Reuters poll: 89.0 (91.8 prior)

• No change expected from FOMC Wed, Powell's final meeting as Fed Chair

• Range Asia 0.7174-945, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD down 0.1% in Asia as U.S. reviews latest Iranian proposal to end war

• Trump reportedly unhappy with proposal, conflict stalemate likely to extend

• WTI crude rallies 1%, Asian stock markets sag on risk aversion

• BoE rate decision Thu, to hold rates through 2026 despite inflation threat

• UK PM Starmer faces vote on possible parliamentary probe over Mandelson

• UK budget rules should seek to lower debt, parliament committee says

• Easter discounts lower UK shop price inflation in April, BRC survey shows

• Support 1.3500, 1.3450-60, resistance 1.3570-75, 1.3600

• Monday range 1.3500-1.35755, Asia range 1.3526-1.3539
UK manufacturers report record surge in price expectations:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD flat Tue, momentum uplift needed to challenge 0.7250-85 resistance

• Trump unhappy with Iran's peace proposal because nuclear issue not addressed

• U.S. Apr consumer confidence due Tue, Reuters poll: 89.0 (91.8 prior)

• Pivotal AU Q1 CPI due Wed (poll +4.2% y/y), will solidify RBA expectations

• No change anticipated from FOMC Wed, Powell's last meeting as Fed Chair

• Range Asia 0.7183-945, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY did little yesterday, range 159.10-67, Asia so far 159.31-47 EBS

• Tokyo fix demand eyed but moves may be limited into BOJ policy announcement

• Trading already thin into Japan's Golden Week holidays, many already off

• That said, Tokyo fix demand likely strong, spot date month-end

• After BOJ announcement, trading volumes in Tokyo likely to see large fall

• On the BOJ, most eye no change, only slim chance of surprise

• BOJ Gov Ueda's presser later today will be watched for clues at June meeting

• In an interesting aside, EconMin Kiuchi to attend today's BOJ meeting

• Levels to watch for USD/JPY include 157.59 low April 17, recent base

• On upside, 160.47 high March 30 key, top of recent range

• Tech levels to watch include daily Ichimoku kijun/tenkan at 159.03/158.71

• Hourly Ichimoku cloud 159.53-57 above, 100-HMA 159.46, 200-HMA 159.21 below

• Little in way of nearby option expiries today, only some around 159.25-30

• JGB-US rate differentials narrowed some overnight, 2s @243 bps, 10s @185 bps

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , ,

• Also , also on BOJ

• US markets , , ,
USD/JPY:


4 Japanese yen charts in one:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD +0.6% wtd as building inflation anxiety puts rate hike on the menu

• Futures market pricing implies 59% chance of May OCR hike

• NZD 0.5930 resistance short term key, break above will stimulate bulls

• U.S. considers Iran proposal that puts nuclear issue aside for now

• FOMC meeting outcome Wed with no change expected, Powell's last as Fed Chair

• Range NZ 0.5905-17, support 0.5680 0.5580, resistance 0.5930 0.6090-95
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.5% wtd as probability of May RBA hike continues to firm

• AU Q1 CPI due Wed (poll +4.2% y/y), critical for forward RBA expectations

• Futures market pricing now implies 87% probability of May 5 OCR hike

• AUD targeting 0.7250-85 resistance, break above will trigger next leg higher

• Middle East remains key focus, oil firmer on supply concerns, DXY -0.1%

• U.S. reviewing Iran proposal that leaves nuclear issue for post-war talks

• Focus shifting to FOMC meeting outcome Wed, Powell's last as Fed Chair

• Overnight range 0.7165-0.7200, support 0.6834, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

MUFG Research previews this week's April BoJ policy meeting.

"The BoJ will meet tomorrow with expectations of a rate hike having come down notably...A more dovish communication from the BoJ and the potential for the Fed being more hawkish is a recipe for renewed upside momentum in USD/JPY through the 160-level. That would likely coincide with renewed instability in the JGB market as fears over the BoJ being behind the curve return. A more dovish communication would also reinforce the impression that PM Takaichi is dictating the overall monetary stance that would further reinforce Japan selling risks," MUFG notes.

"The BoJ therefore needs to limit this risk and convey a more hawkish message on the outlook for policy...Abrupt moves have not yet taken place although the latest IMM speculative positioning data did reveal a pick-up in yen selling that could be an indication of increased expectations of a move higher in USD/JPY. The BoJ’s communication tomorrow will be key for avoiding a bigger move higher in USD/JPY," MUFG adds.

• GBP$ near flat at 1.3537 in NorAm afternoon trade; Monday range 1.3576-1.3500

• Early NorAm session high at 1.3576 faded as Mideast peace prospects ebbed

• Oil higher, lifting UK inflation; high rates a double-edged sword as fiscal concerns rise

• Markets shifting gaze to upcoming DM c.bank rate announcements Fed Apr 29, BoE Apr 30

• No changes expected this week, traders keen to hear c.bank guidance on inflation, policy

• UK political uncertainty elevated as well ahead of May local elex, Mandelson noise

• GBP$ res 1.3576 Monday high, 1.3599 daily high Apr 17, 1.3637 upper 30-d Bolli

• Supt 1.3500 Mon low/psychological lvl, 1.3464 100-DMA, 1.3395 daily cloud base

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1745 after 1.1687 traded overnight, rally extended in early NY

• USD softness, gold's bounce off its low, oil's pull back from its high lifted EUR/USD

• The pair pierced the 10-DMA, hit a 3-session high, EUR/USD traded 1.1754

• Sellers emerged however as USD, yields , oil traded upward

• USD/CNH rally toward 6.8270 & losses in gold, silver weighed on EUR/USD

• EUR/USD neared 1.1720 late in the session, the pair traded near flat in NY's afternoon

• The pair's inability to hold above the 10-DMA could be a concern for bulls
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7185 after 0.7126 traded overnight, rally extended in NY

• Overnight USD selling persisted in early NY & gold, silver traded upward

• AUD/USD hit a 6-session high of 0.7200; USD/CNH drop added buoyancy

• USD, yields firmed & oil added to gains but AUD/USD stayed up

• The pair sat just above 0.7190 late, it traded up +0.57% in NY's afternoon

• Techs lean bullish; top of bull pennant breaks, RSIs rise, pair above 10-DMA
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research discusses NZD outlook this week.

"With no key domestic data until Q1 employment data on 6 May, moves will remain dominated by geopolitics. As with other risk-sensitive currencies, markets have been quick to turn optimistic despite uncertainty persisting. This leaves the NZD vulnerable to any sign of the conflict re-escalating. We are neutral on the NZD in the week ahead and expect it to trade in a narrow range with resistance at 0.5929 (17 April high). Support will likely be seen around 0.58," ANZ notes.

"On the crosses, the AUD/NZD briefly touched an April high of 1.2208 on 8 April but is broadly ranging between 1.21–1.22 We see scope for mild upside in the week ahead as any re-escalation in geopolitical tensions would likely favour the AUD, given its net energy exporter status, with support at 1.2043 (14 April low). Additionally, any stronger than expected Australian CPI data could also provide support for the pair," ANZ adds.

• Shares of gold miners fall, tracking decline in bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold falls 0.3% to $4,694.70/ounce

• Bullion prices edge lower as lack of progress toward ending Iran war sustains inflation concerns, with attention turning to key central bank meetings this week

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining falls 2.2% and 2.5% respectively

• U.S.-listed shares of South African miners: Gold Fields , Sibanye Stillwater , AngloGold Ashanti and Harmony Gold decline between 0.9% and 1.5%

• Canadian miners: Agnico Eagle Mines dips 1.6% and Kinross Gold falls 2.7%

(Reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru)

Bank of America Global Research previews the April FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

"The Fed will remain firmly on hold at its April meeting. The inflation outlook is arguably as cloudy as it was at the time of the March meeting. Meanwhile, the recent labor data show resilience and potentially some green shoots. The big question around the FOMC statement is whether it will indicate that risks to the policy path are two-sided. We think it won't, but it's a close call. We anticipate only one dissent.

Chair Powell should sound hawkish in what will probably be his last presser. We'll be listening for a few things. First, how open-minded is he to rate hikes? Second, how does he balance war-driven inflation against downside risks to growth/labor? Third, what does he say about Kevin Warsh's comments last week and his own future at the Fed?" BofA notes.

"The April FOMC meeting is also unlikely to be a major event for the USD, but risks skew marginally bullish if Chair Powell reiterates his more hawkish tone from March," BofA adds.

Sterling is likely to face continued volatility, within its recent slight range, with limited upside potential, as traders grapple with geopolitical tensions and a potentially hawkish Bank of England stance at this week's policy meeting.

Investors expect the BoE to hold UK interest rates steady this week, so they will focus their attention on policymakers' post-meeting commentary about persistent British inflation. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, coupled with a significant surge in oil prices since the onset of the Iran war, has contributed to expectations of two potential 25 basis point rate hikes in 2026, likely in the second half of the year, to combat inflation. Political uncertainties are further complicating the GBP/USD outlook, with UK local elections approaching while Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a possible parliamentary probe over the appointment of former ambassador to the U.S. Peter Mandelson.

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is currently trading around 1.3555, with immediate support at the 10-day moving average of 1.3527 and psychological support by 1.35. A deeper pullback could see the pair targeting the recently bruised 100-DMA at 1.3464, while robust resistance levels are at 1.3599, the recent trend high on April 17, and the Upper Bollinger Band near 1.3640.

In the absence of easing tensions and a sudden drop in UK inflation expectations, the recent high of 1.3867 set in January is likely to remain out of reach.
GBP Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research sees GBP risks tilted to the downside especially vs USD or AUD.

"We we would stress that Sterling's imprint from political uncertainty over prior months has been much more tactical than fundamental, we still see the risks to the currency as asymmetrically negative from this angle. All told, while Sterling should remain highly levered to any further recovery in global risk sentiment, its energy-importer attributes and the balance of the UK's domestic macro themes still imply more value in the negative side of its distribution," GS notes.

"We think the case for Sterling underperformance is clearer against terms of trade beneficiaries such as USD or AUD for the time being, rather than in crosses that are more sensitive toward UK domestic considerations, such as EUR/GBP," GS adds.

Credit Agricole CIB Research highlights the latest reading from its month-end fixing model.

"Global equity markets were broadly firmer in April. In FX, the USD was broadly weaker on the month.

Overall, the moves in equity markets, when adjusted for market capitalisation and FX performance this month, suggest month-end portfolio-rebalancing flows are likely to be strong USD selling across the board, with the strongest sell signal in the case of the USD vs EUR," CACIB notes.

• Cable hits 1.3562 after adding to gains from 1.3455 (Friday low)

• 1.3562 is the highest level since April 17 (1.3599 was two-month high that day)

• Safe-haven USD softer on Axios report re: Iran proposal, Tillis guidance on Warsh

• Powell prepares for possible swan song Wednesday. BoE event risk Thursday

• King Charles jets to U.S. for trip overshadowed by Iran quarrel and shooting

• CBI April retail sales balance minus 68, its lowest reading since series began in 1983

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD fell to 0.7126 in Asia, buyers emerged, the pair turned positive

• The pair rallied above the 10-DMA, hit 0.7190 in Europe, NY opened near0.7185

• Broad based USD weakness helped AUD/USD trade up +0.51% in early NY

• USD/CNH drop to 6.8195 & gold, silver rally to positive ground aided AUD/USD's gains

• Rising RSIs, consolidation of gains off April 13 low are bullish tech signals

• April Dallas Fed manufacturing business index is a minor data risk during NY trading
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Eurozone interest rate expected to rise 50bps to 2.5% by October

• One of 85 polled expecting eurozone i/rate to rise on Thursday

• 44 of 85 economists expect ECB hike in June

• The U.S. interest is seen unchanged at 3.5% throughout 2026

• All 103 economists polled by Reuters see US rate unchanged on Wed

• Current administration hope a new Fed gov will lower rates

• Imminent EUR/USD buy signal may invigorate traders

•
Eurozone interest rate outlook


Outlook for US interest rate


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)