The euro slipped against a mixed dollar on Monday as higher Treasury yields driven by inflation and debt-supply concerns weighed on risk sentiment, while ECB President Christine Lagarde downplayed euro zone inflation concerns.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook said AI-driven demand and higher oil prices are likely to keep inflation pressures elevated in coming months, though she did not signal a need for further rate hikes.

Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appointed David Zervos as counselor.

Oil trimmed early gains as US and Iranian officials hold separate talks, with a U.S. official saying discussions remain constructive but no deal is likely without nuclear progress, despite President Donald Trump's openness to sanctions relief.

Lagarde said euro zone inflation has yet to trigger significant second-round effects, supporting a measured ECB response, while the central bank plans to expand euro liquidity backstops to bolster the currency's global role.

ECB Governing Council member Alvaro Santos Pereira said energy remains the main inflation driver, with higher natural gas prices posing a key risk this winter.

UK finance minister John Healey said fiscal discipline will be central to his Oct. 28 budget, citing rising debt-servicing costs as a drain on public spending.

BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said persistent inflation has strengthened the case for keeping rates higher for longer.

DXY rose in active month-end trading, though gains were tempered as bullish dollar option sentiment eased.

EUR/USD hit a two-month low at 1.1353 before recovering, but bearish momentum below key moving averages keeps risks tilted toward 1.1350, with resistance near 1.1400.

EUR/CHF rose for a third day following weekend comments by Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel on inflation and the Swiss franc.

GBP/USD edged higher in choppy trade, but the broader downtrend remains intact with risks still skewed toward 1.3200 support and the YTD low at 1.3140, while resistance lies at 1.3280.

USD/JPY held around 157.20, supported by firmer Treasury yields and month-end demand, but intervention risks and softer momentum may cap gains near 158.00 and leave support at 156.45-65 vulnerable.

AUD/USD gained amid a stronger CNH ahead of month-end and Golden Week, but bearish technicals and resistance just above its 200-day moving average at 0.7025 leave risks remain skewed lower.

Treasury yields rose about 6 basis points, with the 2s-10s curve nudging up to +31.6bp.

The S&P 500 fell 0.59%.

WTI oil was up only 0.22% after being up over 2%.

Gold slid 3.6% while copper fell 1.9%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.20%, USD/JPY +0.11%, GBP/USD +0.09%, AUD/USD +0.01%, DXY +0.23%, EUR/JPY -0.09%, GBP/JPY +0.14%, AUD/JPY +0.08%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD marginally firmer in a choppy session. Range 1.3225-80

• Spot supported by cross-related selling in EUR/GBP, around down 0.3% on the session

• Little evidence Cable is breaking out of the prevailing downtrend

• Macro backdrop unchanged, softer risk tone and elevated energy costs still weigh on sterling

• Key support situated at 1.3200, test remains likely

• A break here would expose the 1.3140 YTD low
gbpusd hourly chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

ANZ Research previews the September RBA meeting and AUD/USD outlook around the meeting.

"Looking ahead, we now expect the RBA to deliver 25bp hikes in both September and November, taking the cash rate to 4.85%, the highest level since 2008. While a September hike is our base case, the vote may again be split, reflecting the Board's apparent preference to adjust policy alongside quarterly inflation updates and Statement on Monetary Policy meetings. Any dissent is likely to be about timing rather than the direction of policy.

For FX, the November signal matters more than the September decision itself. A hawkish hike (base case) that reinforces further upside to inflation risks and keeps November firmly in play would be the most supportive outcome for the AUD, likely pushing AUD/USD through 0.71 and towards 0.7140. A hike accompanied by neutral, data-dependent guidance will likely leave AUD/USD within its current trading range," ANZ notes.

"Conversely, a hold would likely weigh on the AUD initially, potentially dragging AUD/USD below 0.70. However, downside should prove limited if policymakers clearly signal that November remains a live meeting and further tightening remains the central policy path. In short, the AUD's reaction is likely to be driven less by September's decision and more by how the RBA frames the outlook for November," ANZ adds.

LONDON, Sept 28 - The core narrative keeping cable offered remains intact. Global bond yields continue to push higher, which ahead of the October 28 UK budget, will continue to raise concerns around the Chancellor’s limited fiscal headroom. Meanwhile, with little evidence of a notable improvement in energy prices in the near-term, markets will continue to expect a Bank of England rate hike at the November meeting.

For GBP, this combination will leave the broader downtrend in place. This is reflected in the latest CFTC data, given that net GBP shorts rose over 40% to now sit close to recent extremes and levels that have previously marked turning points. In turn, this creates an asymmetry, because, while the near-term setup will remain lower in the budget, the fast build-up of positioning could provide fuel for a sharper post-budget squeeze if the fiscal and geopolitical backdrop improves.

For now, this catalyst is absent and any pre-budget rebound is unlikely to prove a durable one, unless supported by any credible de-escalation between the US and Iran. That said, the path of least resistance is therefore lower, which should keep pressure on initial support at 1.3200, where a break would open up the 2026 low at 1.3140.
GBPUSD positioning

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own) ((Email: ))

Goldman Sachs Research shifts to a more bullish bias on the JPY.

"For years, domestic policies and the global backdrop justified the Yen's undervaluation. Now, domestic policies seem to be turning more constructive, with scope for more to come. Faster rate hikes have reduced the inflationary impact of expansionary fiscal policy, taking pressure off the currency. A shift in portfolio flows remains mostly speculation so far, but the higher probability of it occurring increases the downside asymmetry in USD/JPY on top of the Yen's valuation signal, strengthening its attractiveness as a portfolio hedge," GS notes.

"The risk of additional interventions, particularly in the context of the US and Japan's reported joint concern about the Yen's undervaluation, should also keep the upside in USD/JPY more limited. Together, these developments raise the attractiveness of being long JPY, especially to protect against an onset of recession fears, and should make valuation a more meaningful driver of performance," GS adds.

AUD/USD is under pressure from multiple angles despite trading roughly flat on Monday, with the pair holding below its 200-day moving average and investors positioned long the pair facing risks from dollar strength, options positioning, and technical signals.

On the fundamental side, U.S. interest rates rallied to start the week as markets increasingly expect the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance in its inflation fight—the 10-year Treasury yield reached a 19-year high while September 2027 futures slid toward last week's lows, with these interest rate gains supporting the dollar.

Options markets reflect bearish positioning as well, with risk reversal vol premiums in the 1-month and 3-month tenors showing puts trading richer than calls, signaling investors are hedging for AUD/USD downside. This is corroborated by CFTC positioning data, where net-short Australian dollar bets have climbed to their largest level since December 2025.

Technically, the picture also favors further declines. The pair is consolidating after its drop from the September 21 high, forming a bear flag pattern while trading below its 10-, 21-, 55-, and 200-day moving averages. Additional bearish signals include September's inverted hammer candlestick and a monthly RSI reading pointing to downward longer-term momentum. Should the bear flag pattern complete, it suggests a potential move down toward the 0.6835-0.6865 zone.

For AUD/USD to reverse higher, two conditions would likely need to materialize: a significant improvement in broader risk sentiment, and a reduced probability of further Fed rate hikes.
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research flags further upside for JPY in the near-term.

"The yen has been holding up better against the US dollar than other major currencies recently mainly reflecting the heightened risk of further intervention to support the yen. Media reports at the end of last week stated that US President Trump voiced concern about yen weakness when meeting Japanese policymakers which has reinforced expectations that they remain under pressure to help cap further upside for USD/JPY. The pair has been consolidating between 155.00 and 160.00 since joint US-Japan intervention at the end of July. Over that time period the yen has been one of the best performing G10 currencies alongside the Australian and US dollars," MUFG notes.

"At the same time, the yen is deriving more support from building expectations for faster BoJ rate hikes. The 2-year JGB yield has jumped higher since late last week and moved within touching distance of 2.00% overnight. Market participants now expect the BoJ to deliver 3-4 more hikes in the year ahead. The probability of a back-to-back hike as soon as next month has also been moving up closer a 50:50 call. The release overnight of the latest BoJ minutes from the July meeting also sent a hawkish signal backing up the shift to a faster pace of tightening which is currently underway although they are more dated than normal given developments over the summer," MUFG adds.

Bank of America Global Research previews the September RBA policy meeting.

"We expect the RBA to raise the cash rate at its upcoming meeting to 4.60%, with risks of further hikes this year amid persistent inflationary pressures. Inflation risks remain skewed to the upside given the higher starting point for inflation in Australia and the risk of second-round effects from energy market disruptions in the Middle East. As a result, we expect the cash rate will need to remain higher for longer, such that Australia retains the highest policy rate among G10 central banks amid persistent core inflation, which should underpin AUD strength," BofA notes.

"We are bullish AUD given elevated Australian Commonwealth Government Bond (ACGB) yields and resilient commodity prices. The key downside risk is a stronger US macroeconomic backdrop that leads markets to price in further Fed tightening. Commodity export prices should continue to offer some support for AUD, although the impact will likely be modest in the absence of new mining capex," BofA adds.

• AUD/USD rallied to 0.7029 overnight, briefly pierced the 200-DMA then fell

• Pair turned lower, hit 0.7007, pierced the 61.8% Fibo of the 0.6867-0.7238 rally

• NY opened near 0.7010, down -0.14% as risk-off sentiment weighed on the pair

• US yield , USD gains helped to drive the risk-off trading theme

• Significant drops in gold, silver, copper reinforced risk-off & USD buying

• Techs are bearish; RSIs are falling, pair consolidating drop from Sep. 21 high
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• US-listed shares of silver miners fall premarket, tracking weakness in precious metals

• Spot silver falls 4.7% to $61.25 per ounce, as higher oil prices stoke inflation fears, bolstering the case for elevated interest rates [GOL/]

• Crude oil rebounds more than 2% on Monday after US President Donald Trump rejects a peace deal from Iran to resolve their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz [O/R]

• Hecla Mining and Coeur Mining down 5.4% and ~6%, respectively

• Canadian miners: Endeavour Silver slips 5.4%; Silvercorp Metals inches down 5.7%

• Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust both fall ~5%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD has traded a 21.5 pip range thus far Monday; 0.7007-0.70285

• Those parameters are within Friday's 0.70041-0.7043 range

• RBA rate decision on Tuesday (0430 GMT); 25 bps increase expected

• AUD might strengthen if RBA delivers hawkish hike

• CFTC data: net AUD short rose 20% to 46,814 contracts in week to Sept 22

• 46,814 contracts is largest net AUD short position since December 2025

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of US-listed gold miners fall premarket as bullion prices slip

• Spot gold down 3.2% at $4,149.89 per ounce, hitting its lowest since August 5

• Higher oil prices stoke inflation fears and strengthen expectations for further Fed rate hikes [GOL/]

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining down 3.4% and 3.5%, respectively

• US-listed shares of South African miners AngloGold Ashanti , Harmony Gold and Sibanye Stillwater drop between 6% and 5% each

• US-listed shares of Canadian miner Kinross Gold

down 4.7%

(Reporting by Kanishka Ajmera in Bengaluru) ((mail to: ))

• Cable extends north to threaten 1.3274 as USD falls vs yen on Mimura

• Japan's top FX diplomat urges markets to heed "very clear" warning on yen

• 1.3274 is a former support point (July 28 low). 1.3225 was Asia low

• Resistance levels beyond 1.3274 include 1.3300 and 1.3322 (Sept 22 low)

• CFTC data: net GBP short rose 40% to 82,568 contracts in week to Sept 22

• 82,568 contracts is largest net GBP short position since early July

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 22 pip range since 2000 GMT Sunday; 1.3225-1.3247

• Those parameters are well within Friday's 1.3211-1.3263 range

• USD supported by higher oil prices (US is net energy exporter; UK net importer)

• BoE's Bailey said high energy prices make it harder to leave rates on hold

• UK finance minister Healey to address Labour Party conference today

• PM Burnham says it is crucial to have stability in UK public finances

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Monday 28 September

• EUR/USD: 1.1300 (679M), 1.1310-20 (770M), 1.1335-45 (446M)

• 1.1350-60 (2.5BLN), 1.1370-80 (1.0BLN), 1.1400 -05 (4.7BLN)

• 1.1415-20 (2.7BLN), 1.1525-35 (1.9BLN), 1.1450-60 (2.6BLN)

• 1.1465-75 (1.6BLN), 1.1480-85 (1.1BLN), 1.1500-10 (4.9BLN)

• 1.1525-35 (786M), 1.1540-50 (3.1BLN)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD remains under to start the week as US yields inch higher in Asia

• US 30-yr yield +1bp, hovers near 22-yr high; 10-yr +2 bps, nears 18-yr peak

• Boosted by upbeat economic data, inflation concerns, Fed rate expectations

• US crude +1% in Asia as Trump rejects Iran peace plan, weighs on GBP

• UK's Burnham says it is crucial to have stability in public finances

• Support 1.3180, 1.3140-1.3160 March-June lows; resistance 1.3260-65, 1.3300

• Friday range 1.3211-1.3263, Asia 1.3225-1.3262
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of BOA Resources surge 33.3% to A$0.14, their highest since September 2022

• Mineral explorer reports high-grade copper find at its Neds Creek Copper Project in the Murchison, Western Australia (WA)

• 4.8 mln shares change hands, 5.4 times the 30-day average

• Stock up 350% this year, including the day's moves

(Reporting by Rudrannsh Mehra in Bengaluru)

• XAU/USD down 1.3% Monday as longer-dated US yields surge to multi-year highs

• US 30-year yield hit fresh 22-yr high, 10-yr reached 18-year high on Friday

• Boosted by upbeat economic data, inflation concerns, Fed rate expectations

• Higher oil weighs; US crude +1.3% in Asia as Trump rejects Iran peace plan

• Support at $4230, 61.8% of June-August gives way as gold falls to 7-week low

• Support 4200 and 4170; resistance 4260-4270, 4300

• Friday range 4254-4316, Asia 4214-4278
XAU:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD -0.25% early Mon as month-long slide continues to extend

• Pair down cumulative 5.6% since Aug 21, targeting 0.5627 ytd low short term

• Brent crude +1.6% to $105.98 a barrel after Trump rejects Iran proposal

• U.S.-Iran war resolution still elusive as negotiations yield scant progress

• U.S. Aug durable goods beat expectations Fri at 0.0% m/m (poll -0.4% m/m)

• Range NZ 0.56495-62, support 0.5627 0.5581, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/CNH might consolidate as weighty USD/JPY drags peers

• Last 6.7238, but may ebb to 6.7186 base of uptrend channel

• Underneath that support, 21 DMA 6.7115 is next technical floor

• USD/JPY slid late Fri on US-Japan call on FX

• Bessent and Katayama agree weak yen a concern, to cooperate more

• US, China agree to mutual $30 bln cuts in tariffs
CNH

(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Mon as sentiment continues to languish despite hawkish RBA

• RBA meeting outcome due Tue, 25 bps hike widely expected, dialogue key

• AU Aug CPI update due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.4% m/m, +4.0% y/y

• Resolution of U.S.-Iran war no closer, deep divisions hampering negotiation

• Break below 0.7025 200-DMA sets scene for move toward 0.6920 support zone

• U.S. Aug durable goods beat expectations Fri at 0.0% m/m (poll -0.4% m/m)

• Range Asia 0.7008-205 support 0.6920 0.6865, resistance 0.7282 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR net spec short 52,334 contracts as of Tuesday versus short of 26,993 contracts previous week

• JPY net spec long 71,982 contracts vs long of 120,359 the previous week

• GBP net spec short 82,568 vs short of 58,715 previous week

• AUD net spec short 46,814 vs short of 38,906 previous week

• MXN net spec long 75,167 vs long of 87,782 contracts

• CHF net spec short 26,752 vs short of 28,988 contracts

• CAD short 53,210 vs short of 37,577 previous week
EUR position Sept 25 2026

(Burton Frierson)

• NY opened near 0.7025 after 0.7004 traded overnight, pair fell early

• USD/CNH lift to 6.7256, drop in stocks, gold, silver & firm US yields weighed

• 0.7015 was neared but the pair then rallied as USD, US yields softened

• Stocks, gold, silver lifted & USD/CNH slid from its high; AUD/USD neared 0.7045

• AUD/USD sat near 0.7035 as of this writing, traded up +0.30% in NY's afternoon

• Pair's hold above 61.8% Fib of 0.6867-0.7238, move above 200-DMA comforts bulls

• Daily RSI diverged on today's low which also gives bulls some encouragement
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ING Research sees a scope for USD/CHF to rally into the Fed October meeting.

"The SNB slightly tweaked its currency stance, removing the reference to an "increased willingness" to intervene while retaining its commitment to act when necessary. While this grabbed headlines, it is merely an adjustment reflecting the franc’s recent weakness and does not imply any reluctance to intervene again should the currency appreciate. Market pricing remains too hawkish in our view, and that is what matters most for the Swiss franc. A hike is already fully priced in by March, but we still see few reasons to tighten policy in the foreseeable future," ING notes.

"We think downside risks remain for the franc, with EUR/CHF potentially retesting the 0.9480 highs seen earlier in September. USD/CHF is probably where the upside potential is even greater at this point: an October hike from the Federal Reserve could prompt a rally to 0.85 in the near term," ING adds.