USD/JPY bears may need to tread carefully.

The dollar remains supported by Middle East and Ukraine tensions and a resilient US economy, with Redbook retail sales up 10.2% y/y and September job openings rising to a stronger-than-expected 7.523 million in September.

The greenback may also be drawing support from funding-market dynamics, with SOFR volumes at their highest since June ahead of Wednesday's Treasury refunding announcement and Friday's payrolls report.

Against this backdrop, USD/JPY remains constructive, having regained its 21-DMA at 157.95 and the key 158.00 level, where more than $3 billion of options expire Friday. The pair has also broken above the 156.91-158.44 Ichimoku cloud, shifting focus to resistance at the 200-DMA near 158.60, the upper Bollinger around 158.90, the Sept. 24 high at 159.03 and 100-DMA at 159.18. A move through those levels could spur short covering.

However, options markets still favor yen calls, suggesting upside momentum may remain limited as investors stay wary of potential Japanese intervention, additional BOJ tightening and renewed equity-market volatility. With the VIX holding above 21% despite S&P 500 gains on Tuesday, risk sentiment remains fragile ahead of US midterm election results and the close of earnings season.

For USD/JPY bears to regain control, the pair would need to fall back below its 21-DMA and decisively break under the cloud base near 156.90.
Yen

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

MUFG discusses GBP outlook and targets GBP/USD at 1.3300, and EUR/GBP at 0.8400 by year-end.

"We have not changed our view for the pound to strengthen modestly versus the dollar and weaken modestly versus the euro," MUFG notes.

"The macro backdrop showing resilience has helped provide support for the pound but higher rates and energy prices could see that resilience questioned. The BoE is unlikely to meet current market pricing resulting in pound underperformance, albeit more versus non-dollar currencies," MUFG adds.

• USD/CAD looks to have found a short-term floor at the 100-week MA (1.3948)

• After a 3-week drop from 1.4300 to 1.3950, it is natural for a bout of consolidation

• Upcoming event risk from US midterms to US/CA jobs data keeps conviction low

• This is also underscored by the tepid rebounds in the pair so far

• Last week's high at 1.4068 marks initial resistance and the 100-day MA at 1.4049

• Support zone at 1.3920-67, below here, opens up the 200-day MA at 1.3892
usdcad weekly

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Bank of America Global Research previews the October jobs report due on Friday.

"We expect payrolls to rise by an above-consensus 75k in Oct (private: 70k), up from 29k in Sep. Claims remain extremely benign, while the recent slowdown in weekly ADP and potentially unfavorable seasonals pose downside risks," BofA notes.

"We expect the u-rate to remain at 4.2%, as the LFPR falls a tenth and HH employment gains moderate after two strong months. A larger drop in participation could push the u-rate to 4.1%. Overall, the labor market remains stable, with job growth above breakeven and the u-rate flat/down," BofA adds.

JP Morgan Research previews the November BoE meeting on Thursday.

"BoE (Thu Nov 5; JPM: +25bp) Widely expected and priced by markets to hike Bank Rate 25bps at Thursday’s meeting and there are additional hawkish risks for GBP in our view, coming from the guidance. Our economist expects a 7-2 vote for a hike. Labour market data stand out to us as the recent surprise 4.7% unemployment rate print contrasts with BoE forecasts showing a move up towards 5.3% next year," JPM notes.

"A key dovish MPC argument has been that labour market slack can contain inflation but this appears to be shifting. Inflation and growth are also tracking above forecast (3.5% y/y vs 3% and 1.4% y/y vs 1% respectively). We expect some form of guidance from BoE that more tightening is likely needed beyond this rate hike, which presents bullish risks for GBP, although the curve is already reasonably well priced with around 100bps of tightening by mid-27," JPM adds.

• AUD/USD hit 0.7004 overnight, sellers emerged and the pair then turned lower

• RBA hiked but decision was split, investors expect RBA to pause in Dec.

• PBOC hiked the FX deposit reserve ratio which sent USD/CNH sharply upward

• US dollar, US yields rallied while gold, silver, copper, stocks fell

• Those influences drove AUD/USD down to 0.6962, an 11-session low

• NY opened near 0.6980, AUD/UDS traded down -0.26% in early action

• Techs lean bearish now; RSIs falling, pair holds below the 10- & 21-DMAs

• US Sep. factory orders, JOLTS & mid-term elections are key risks Tuesday
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY has edged higher from 157.76-158.20, on Tuesday, according to EBS data

• Spot steady as traders brace for start of voting in US midterms

• USD/JPY remains stuck within the daily cloud that currently spans 156.91-158.44

• A break above the cloud top would be quite a bullish technical sign

• Note EUR/JPY usually rises in November; chart hints at repeat

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Nov 3 (Reuters) - GBP/USD has tended to struggle in the month of November, falling in well over half of them this century, and this year may not differ.

GBP/USD performance for each November since 2000 shows it has fallen in 15 of the last 26 years, or 58% of the time. Seasonality should not be considered in isolation, but it's a useful tool combined with other factors.

The pound is broadly steady against the dollar as investor attention shifted from last week's UK budget to an expected Bank of England rate hike on Thursday, the central bank's first since August 2023.

However, the long upper shadows on the Friday and Monday daily GBP/USD candles points to a rejection of the upside, which could foreshadow a near-term pullback if buyers fail to regain control.

There is scope for cable losses to retest last Wednesday's 1.3274 low, a break below which would unmask 1the 2026 1.3137 low, posted in October.
Daily Chart


Seasonality Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

China's increase in the FX reserve-requirement ratio could provide a timely catalyst for a recovery in EUR/USD, arriving as the pair reaches an important technical zone while positioning has become increasingly one-sided.

The move to curb yuan appreciation comes soon after EUR/USD met 1.1105, the midpoint of the prior 1.0125–1.2084 advance seen between February 2025 and January 2026, before rebounding to 1.1237. Holding above that midpoint would strengthen the case that the decline was a correction rather than the start of a broader reversal.

Traders who were long roughly €24 billion in January were short approximately €18 billion when EUR/USD based. That dramatic positioning reversal heightens the chance that the correction is ending and that the broader uptrend from 1.0125 can resume. With speculative euro shorts now substantial, a sustained recovery could force bearish investors to cover positions, adding momentum to any rally.

A yuan peak would materially raise that risk. The yuan's advance against China's FX basket began near 95.35 in January and reached 103.77 in October, prompting policymakers to act against excessive appreciation. A softer yuan could trigger short-covering among speculators holding USD/CNY shorts — one of the relatively large bearish-dollar wagers across FX markets — and reduce a key macro force that has coincided with EUR/USD weakness.

An FX RRR hike can be effective because it requires banks to place a larger share of foreign-currency deposits in reserve at the PBOC. This reduces readily available FX liquidity, potentially raises the cost of transactions that reinforce yuan appreciation, and affects dollar funding, swap-market conditions, and incentives to sell foreign currency for yuan.

Unlike conspicuous spot-market intervention, the FX RRR operates through liquidity, incentives, and signalling. It indicates that policymakers are uncomfortable with the pace of CNY gains without declaring an explicit exchange-rate target. That signal alone can discourage investors from continuing to chase yuan appreciation.

Should a yuan peak help cement a base for EUR/USD and unleash short covering, the recovery could eventually challenge 1.2084. A decisive break above that former high would shift attention to Fibonacci objectives at 1.2315, 1.2645, and 1.3064.
EURUSD targets


CNY vs FX basket and eurusd

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• China hikes FX RRR in order to stem CNY rise

• Yuan rally began in earnest around 95.35 in Jan 2026

• EUR/USD peaked at 1.2084 in January 2026

• Yuan reached 103.7 vs FX basket in October

• EUR/USD sank to lowest since Apr 2025 at 1.1105 in Oct

• 1.1105 is mid-point 1.0125-1.2084 2025-2026 rise

•
CNY vs FX basket and eurusd

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 26 pip range thus far Tuesday; 1.3397-1.3423

• 1.3397 is low water-mark since Monday's six-week high of 1.3447

• Trump faces midterm verdict with control of Congress at stake

• Iran-US deal still out of reach, senior Iranian official tells Reuters

• US-Iran tensions inflate oil prices: Brent, WTI up over $2 per barrel

• BBC-European Commission, UK agree deal over British food exports to EU

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Change to time in first bullet)

Nov 3 (Reuters) -

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1500 GMT on Tuesday 3 November

• EUR/USD: 1.1100 (720M), 1.1125-35 (1.61BLN), 1.1140-50 (1.3BLN)

• 1.1165-75 (294M), 1.1200-10 (3.1BLN), 1.1215-25 (1.9BLN)

• 1.1250-60 (2.5BLN), 1.1265 (225M), 1.1300-10 (3.6BLN), 1.1315-20 (1.64BLN)

• 1.1330-40 (5.93BLN), 1.1350-60 (2.0BLN)
EUR/USD Nov 3 Option Expiries:

(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD descends to 0.6974 from 0.7001 after RBA hike

• Breaks below 21 DMA support 0.6994, adding to bearish cues

• Recent rejection by 200 DMA, break of 100 DMA have weighed

• Tues close below 0.6959 engages Bollinger downtrend channel

• RBA governor Bullock sounds less hawkish after 6-3 vote split

• Does not offer forward guidance, says will wait and see
AUD

(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD unchanged in Asia after closing 0.15$ higher on Monday

• Traders cautious ahead of Tue US midterm elections and Thu BoE rate decision

• US tech sector concerns continue to weigh on investor confidence, cap GBP

• Sharply lower oil prices offset subdued risk sentiment; US crude -7.4% Mon

• Middle East peace efforts watched after US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island

• Daily close above 1.3426,200-DMA, targets Fibo resistances @ 1.3469, 1.3548

• Support 1.3370,1.3330,1.3300-10; Fri range 1.3470-1.3533, Asia 1.3378-1.3397
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Rarex Ltd rise as much as 10% to A$0.011, their highest level since October 14

• Stock logs six consecutive session of gains

• The diversified miner says maiden drilling at its Khaleesi Project in Western Australia confirmed a copper-nickel sulphide system at the Niobe prospect

• Plans to begin an induced polarisation survey at Niobe in November to target higher concentrations of copper sulphides

• YTD, stock down 57.7%, including the session's moves

(Reporting by Paridhi Minda in Bengaluru)

• EUR/USD flat Tue, AI trade concerns linger, Nasdaq finishes -1.1% Mon

• Brent crude firms in Asia after reports of U.S. strike on Qeshm Island

• Attention on U.S. midterm elections, Trump may lose control of Congress

• EU Oct HICP flash update due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +4.0% y/y

• EU Oct S&P manufacturing PMI 52.7 (Reuters poll consensus 52.4)

• EUR 1.1065 17-month low the next target if the pair resumes downtrend

• Range Asia 1.118425-9775, support 1.1065 1.0733, resistance 1.1285 1.1710
EUR Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Tue, RBA meeting outcome 0330 GMT, with 25 bps hike expected

• Investors wary of U.S. midterm elections, with control of Congress at stake

• AI trade concern heaps pressure of broader risk sentiment, Nasdaq down 1.1%

• WTI -0.2% to $96.28 a barrel in Asia following outsized overnight fall

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking at ANU Canberra Thur

• AUD break above 0.7069 55-DMA would open window for challenge of 0.7140

• Range Asia 0.6995-0.70035 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY touch softer in Asia after closing 0.2% higher on Monday

• Upside limited as sharply lower oil, weak tech stocks weigh

• JPY weak on crosses; EUR/JPY closed 0.4% higher after touching 1-yr low Fri

• Traders cautious ahead of US midterms and Japanese holiday Tuesday

• USD support 157.40-45, 157.00-05, resistance 158.00-10, 158.50-60

• Monday range 157.45-158.00, Asia 157.795-157.955
Trump ratings:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

ING Research on EUR/USD near-term outlook.

"Unwelcome news for French politicians late Friday came in the form of an unscheduled ratings review from Fitch. It shifted its outlook on French sovereign debt from stable to negative and promised another ratings review by the end of February. It currently rates France as A+. Reasons for the outlook shift are familiar by now, but they centre on the government's failure to improve public finances at a time of weak growth," ING notes.

"We would think that the news limits the potential for EUR/USD to rebound on softer energy prices. We suspect there will be more EUR/USD sellers in the 1.1200/1250 area should it make it that far," ING adds.

• NZD/USD -0.5% from Mon 0.5645 high despite Brent crude falling 8%

• Risk sentiment remains pressured by AI trade concerns, Nasdaq down 1.1%

• Markets eyeing U.S. midterm elections with control of Congress at stake

• NZ Q3 jobs data due Wed (prior 5.6% unemployment, +0.5% jobs growth q/q)

• Futures pricing currently implies 73.9% probability of Dec 9 RBNZ hike

• NZD unable to clear 0.5638 21-DMA, pre-NZ election sideways drift continues

• Range NZ 0.5615-274, support 0.5566 0.5485, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.5% from Mon 0.70345 high, AI trade concerns ongoing, Nasdaq -0.5%

• Brent crude -8.1% to $104.24 a barrel as Iran raises hopes for peace talks

• RBA monetary policy meeting outcome 0330 GMT, 25 bps hike widely anticipated

• Markets focussed on U.S. midterm elections with control of Congress at stake

• AUD pushing lower hourly Bollinger band, pre-RBA downside extension unlikely

• Break above 0.7069 55-DMA would open window for challenge of 0.7140

• Overnight range 0.69965-0.70305 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7140
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Sterling a tad soft in NY afternoon clings to 0.11% gain at 1.3408; NorAm range 1.3431-1.3406

• Pair probed fresh 6-wk high earlier in session at 1.3348, just above the daily cloud top 1.3439

• USD gaining into NY close ahead of US election uncertainty Tuesday

• Cable likely supported by rising 10-DMA (1.3371) ahead of Thursday BoE expected hike

• As of Friday's data, GBP/USD net spec short large, subject to unwind on rate diffs

• GBP$ res 1.3448 Monday high, 1.3469 61.8% Fib of 1.3675-1.3137, 1.3566 daily high Sept 9

• Supt 1.3380 Monday low, 1.3371 rising 10-DMA, 1.3308 the 21-DMA

Sterling Chart:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research previews the November RBA decision on Tuesday.

"Australian inflation data and further hawkish rhetoric last week point to the RBA raising rates this week for a fifth time this year taking the cash rate to 4.85%. Risk-off trading following disappointing US technology stock earnings leaves AUD/USD struggling to surmount upside resistance at 0.7050, however, which would clear the way for the exchange rate to make a run at 0.7100," CACIB notes.

"The RBA could lower its growth forecasts, however, due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as well as falling house prices, both of which will drag on household consumption. But the central bank will continue to emphasise prolonged weakness in growth is needed to get inflation back lower nullifying the impact on the market from potentially lower growth forecasts. So the overall tone of the SMP and press conference is likely to be hawkish," CACIB adds,

(Adds headline)

• NY opened near 0.7010 after 0.7035 traded overnight, drop extended in early NY

• Firm USD, US yields helped sink AUD/USD down to 0.6999, a 7-session low

• Rally ensued after report out of Iran drove hopes for peaceful resolution to the conflict

• USD, US yields , oil fell while stocks, gold, silver copper rallied

• AUD/USD hit 0.7021 then neared 0.7010 late, was down -0.30% in NY's afternoon

• Falling RSIs, hold below the 10- & 200-DMAs are concerns for AUD/UDS bulls

• RBA rate decision looms, hike expected, statement & presser will be in focus
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)