• GBP$ soft in NY afternoon trade, -0.22% at 1.3300; NorAm range 1.3339-1.3299

• USD goes bid as UST, global yields resumed climb; risk, tech/AI, regained vigor

• UK Unemployment earnings on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday in focus for MonPol clues

• Oct 28 UK Autumn Budget of significance given UK inflation, growth conundrum

• GBP$ supt 1.3299 Monday low, 1.3268 Friday low, 1.3255/53 the 21/10-DMA

• Res 1.3348 Monday high, 1.3371 daily high Oct 16, 1.3406- 50% Fib of 1.3675-1.3137

Sterling Chart:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1215 after 1.1182 traded overnight, rally extended early

• Rally fueled by USD, US yields & USD/CNH drops and gold, silver, equity rallies

• EUR/USD hit 1.1231 but sellers emerged, 1.1210 neared late, pair was down -0.25%

• Firmer USD, yields & downward moves in gold, silver stocks weighed on EUR/USD

• Techs lean bearish; RSIs indicate downward momentum, pair below the 21-DMA

• Widening 15-month Bolli bands contribute to the bearish tech signals
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the JPY near-term outlook.

"The JPY would be one of the G10 currencies to benefit most from an unwinding of the AI boom in equities. While the Nikkei has been a big beneficiary of the AI boom, there remains a strong negative correlation between the JPY and the Japanese bourse. Weaker Japan equities would cause foreign investors to experience falls in their exposures to JPY-denominated assets and lead to the unwinding of FX hedges," CACIB notes.

"USD/JPY would also be weighed down by weaker US technology stocks given a lot of the USD’s strength is tied to capital inflows into US equities. Continuing to drive the JPY in the background is the BoJ still moving to normalise rates. We still think this will be more of a neutral for USD/JPY than a negative, with the BoJ to only match the pace of Fed rate hikes," CACIB adds.

• NY opened near 0.6985 after 0.6945 traded overnight, pair extended the rally

• 0.6993 traded as stocks, gold, silver gains & USD, US yields sank

• Rally ran out of gas however as USD, US yields, USD/CNH then firmed up

• AUD/USD slid away form the 21-DMA, neared 0.6975 late, traded up +0.45%

• Techs lean bullish; RSIs indicate upward momentum, pair above the 10-DMA

• Bull pennant on monthly chart reinforces the bullish tech signals
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan discusses its tactical GBP bias.

"Sterling continues to find support, with French deve- lopments providing another helping hand to EUR/GBP shorts," JPM notes.

"We’ve been flirting with GBP longs for a while, but with employment, inflation and retail sales all coming this week, and EUR/GBP al- ready looking oversold, we remain on the sideline for now. If the data continues to cooperate, though, we may finally have to succumb to the view," JPM adds.

• EUR/GBP is deeply oversold, which cautions against chasing further downside at current levels

• The dip below 0.8400 was quickly rejected, hinting that a short-term floor may have been found

• French unrest has weighed on EUR, but the UK data calendar is heavy

• BoE pricing looks overdone, so the bar for a dovish repricing is low

• That said, sterling's asymmetry is skewed to the downside. A soft print should have an outsized impact relative to a strong one

• Data ahead - Jobs (Oct 20), CPI (Oct 21), Retail sales & flash PMIs (Oct 23)
EURGBP daily

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Goldman Sachs Research discusses EUR/USD outlook.

";The Euro has found some relief from the global rally in duration, and the earlier contagion in sovereign spreads has partly relaxed. Through the “ups” of August and “downs” of the last few weeks, we have maintained our forecasts for the Euro to trade around 1.12-1.14 over the coming year because we think solid global growth and broadly synchronized policy should translate to relatively limited FX spot returns, and European fundamentals today are very different to past episodes of EA sovereign credit stress," GS notes.

"We still see some challenges ahead, but over the next few months clarity on natural gas reserves for winter and a firmer foothold from global duration on the back of cooling US inflation pressures should be tailwinds for the Euro," GS adds.

Bank of America Global Research discusses its latest JPY view with clients.

"We discussed our bullish yen view with clients. Participation in the yen trade seems limited especially following the frustrating reversal in USD/JPY since September. Investors are unwilling to bleed carry on yen longs unless a near term trigger becomes more apparent," BofA notes.

Public pension fund rebalancing is viewed as the most plausible driver, with discussions focusing on potential timing and signals - we argued an unexplained sell-off in EUR/JPY (due to the size of European bond holdings vs. FX volumes), along with weekly flow data, would be key indicators. There remains scepticism around FX policy coordination, especially the government's appetite for higher rates. The December BoJ meeting will be closely watched to see if dissents against rate hikes continue," BofA adds.

• EUR/USD hit 1.1182 overnight as German-French spreads

widened

• Buyers emerged however,1.1234 traded, NY opened near 1.1220, down -0.16%

• Lower US yields , USD/CNH drop helped to lift EUR/USD off the low

• Drop in oil and rallies in gold, silver also helped fuel the lift from the low

• A daily long legged doji formed which gives bulls some encouragement

• Falling RSIs, hold below the 21-DMA are worrying signals for bulls
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Adds headline)

• Buyers took control right out of the gate to start the new trading week

• 0.6945-0.6990 traded, a 3-session high was hit, NY opened near that high

• The pair rallied above the 10-DMA, neared the 21-DMA, was up +0.64%

• US yield , USD/CNH drops helped to fuel the rally

• Rallies in gold, silver, copper and equities contributed the pair's gains

• Techs lean bullish; RSIs are rising, monthly bull hammer candle in place
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/CHF has slipped below its 200-day MA as unrest in France weighs. A close below would reinforce the bear bias

• As previously flagged, the shift in preferred funding currencies is likely a bigger drag for EUR than CHF

• Event risk keeps EUR soft. The French budget debate begins on Oct 20

• Given that the vote is expected to fail, much of this should already be priced in

• The focus is therefore on how EUR reacts to the events, not the outcome itself - eyes also on the Bund-OAT spread

• Initial support is at 0.9215, followed by 0.9180

• If the negatives are largely in the price, these levels of support should limit downside in the near-term
EURCHF daily chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

French risks are feeding into EUR/USD on two fronts: near-term budget worries are weighing on spot and short-dated options, and the 2027 presidential election is starting to show up further out.

Near term: French budget worries remain a concern for EUR traders. Another weekend of protests and wider French government bond (OAT)-Bund spreads are weighing on EUR/USD on Monday, pushing it back below 1.1200. That is supporting short-dated EUR puts and underpinning implied volatility. Buyers have returned to the front end, with 1-week and 2-week risk reversals regaining 0.4 EUR puts over calls from neutral. The 1-month 25-delta contract opened in London around 0.425, up from 0.25 last week. The bounce is modest compared with last week's drop, when long-USD bets taken on since mid-September were unwound, especially against the euro. It does show that downside risks are lingering.

Further out: The 6-month expiry now spans the first round of the presidential election on April 18, 2027. Its implied volatility has risen to 6.5 from 6.3 since Friday, and 25-delta risk reversals were paid at 0.55 EUR puts over calls, from 0.4. That is not a small move for an event so far in the future.

The 6-month tenor should stay supported relative to the dates before it. More risk premium is likely when the expiry rolls past the second round on May 2, 2027.
EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


EUR/USD FXO implied volatility

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable remains on 1.33 handle as it consolidates gains from 1.3137

• 1.3137 was 11-month low on Oct 14, before two cent+ rise on short-covering

• 1.3371 was three-and-a-half week high for GBP/USD on Friday

• CFTC data: net GBP short rose 9% to 106,964 contracts in week to Oct 13

• 106,964 is largest net GBP short position since March 2017

• GBP/EUR hit 17-month high in Asia, as euro fell on weekend violence in France

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Monday October 19

• EUR/USD: 1.1175-80 (1.2BLN), 1.1200 (1.5BLN), 1.1225 (670M), 1.1255-65 (2.1BLN), 1.1280 (672M), 1.1300 (2.1BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8230 (209M), 0.8250 (270M), 0.8300 (1BLN), 0.8325 (369M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3200 (338M), 1.3395-1.3400 (506M), 1.3435 (550M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6950 (610M), 0.6970-75 (1.7BLN), 0.7010-15 (928M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5650 (360M), 0.5720 (260M). USD/CAD: 1.4165 (749M)

• USD/JPY: 157.00-15 (1BLN), 157.90-158.00 (445M), 158.60 (240M), 159.30 (300M)

• Friday's FX options wrap - Long-USD bets unwound, EUR/USD leads (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Oct 19 (Reuters) - Sterling is poised to extend its gains against the euro as a recovery in the pound versus the dollar gathers pace. A monthly close in EUR/GBP below the 200-month moving average (200-MMA) would open the way to major downside targets.

The fundamental drivers remain Bank of England and European Central Bank policy expectations, and broad-based dollar moves.

EUR/GBP has staged a recovery from a new trend low, 0.8395, in early Monday trade but the 200-MMA still has technical significance.

The cross has closed above the average on a monthly basis since May 2025. The average currently sits at 0.8465, while the cross trades at 0.8427, so a close below the average this month would mark a decisive break.

A 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the December 2024 to November 2025 advance, which ran from 0.8222 to 0.8867, gives a first target at 0.8374. Beyond that level, the April 2025 and December 2024 monthly lows offer more ambitious objectives at 0.8325 and 0.8222, respectively.

Momentum supports the bearish case. The 10-month moving average is set to cross below the 20-month moving average, reinforcing the longer-term downtrend.

A sustained move above September's high at 0.8612 would be needed to challenge the underlying bearish view.
EUR/GBP monthly chart:

(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Nordic Resources rise 9.4% to A$0.175, on track for their best day since August 7, if gains hold

• The nickel-copper miner enters an agreement with Finland's Timalfi Partners Ay to acquire the Jukulainen gold project in central Finland

• Company says initial consideration of deal is EUR15,000 ($16,843.50), with deferred consideration of EUR85,000 due within 15 months following final grant of a legally valid Jukulainen licence

• Adds company must complete a minimum of 200m of drilling at Jukulainen within 12 months of final licence grant

• YTD, stock down 10.3%, including session's moves

($1 = 0.8906 euros)

(Reporting by Subhalakshmi Dey in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD +0.4% Mon, buoyed by better than anticipated CN data suite

• CN Q3 GDP +1.2% (poll +1.1%), Sep retail sales +1.1% (poll +0.6%)

• AUD/EUR buyers drove AUD rally early Mon as ongoing FR riots cause anxiety

• RBA Assistant Governor Kent says labour market looser than forecast

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaks at Citi investment conference Wed

• AUD remains stuck in downtrend, current upswing unlikely to extend very far

• Pair targeting 0.6865 support zone, break would open downside significantly

• Range Asia 0.6945-80 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.6995 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/GBP down 0.15% in Asia after sliding 0.45% early Mon on France riots

• Dropped to lowest since May 2025 after weekend riots in major French cities

• Macron urges calm as France counts the cost of worst unrest in years

• France's budget concerns, political uncertainty also weigh

• Ukraine war escalation, US-Ukraine tensions take a toll on euro

• Trump-Zelenskiy rift threatens vital support for Kyiv

• Putin proposes summit with Trump and Xi over Ukraine conflict, WSJ says

• Support 0.8395, 0.8375, 0.8350-55, resistance 0.8430-35, 0.8450, 0.8470-75

• Asia range 0.8395-0.8421, Friday range 0.8420-0.8450
EURGBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.3% with a suite of important CN data scheduled later Mon

• CN GDP, industrial output, retail sales, and house price data all due

• RBA Assistant Governor Kent says labour market looser than forecast

• AUD/EUR buyers drive AUD rally early Mon as ongoing FR riots cause concern

• Zelenskiy condemns U.S.-RU diesel deal, U.S. reinstates intelligence sharing

• RBA deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaks at Citi investment conference Wed

• AUD targets 0.6865 support zone, break below would entrench downside trend

• Range Asia 0.6945-80 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.6995 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY ensconced in daily Ichimoku cloud, below 200-DMA, Asia 157.72-158.11

• Looks to be in stasis, Ichimoku cloud 156.64-158.44, 200-DMA 158.57 above

• Upside seen capped ahead of 159.00, 158.95 EBS highest recently on Oct 14

• Japanese exporters, others continue to look to sell into rallies

• Renewed Nikkei weakness this week could see foreign buyers cut ccy hedges

• Importer demand still eyed on dips and still somewhat supportive

• In options, no massive expiries today till 157.00-15 total $1.1 bln

• Fading Fed Oct rate hike expectations saw JGB-US rate differentials narrow

• In 2s to around 212 bps, in 10s to around 212-215 bps

• IMM CTAs cut some JPY longs but still hefty at 50,207 contracts latest week

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , Japan news , IMF on BOJ

• US markets , , ,
USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD +0.1% Mon as RBNZ rate hike bets continue to firm

• Futures pricing now implies 86.9% probability of 25 bps RBNZ hike Oct 28

• NZD clear above 0.5637 21-DMA for first time in seven weeks

• Further topside consolidation likely, pair may push toward 0.5780 zone

• NZ Sep trade balance -1.97 bln, prior month revised to -1.54 bln

• Critical NZ Q3 CPI update due Thur (prior +1.5% q/q, +4.1% y/y)

• Range NZ 0.56545-63, support 0.5566 0.5485, resistance 0.5650 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD -0.4% from Fri's 1.1240 close in early Asia trading Mon

• Rioting in FR continues with mounting damage, more than 2.4k arrests so far

• Romanian fighter jets shoot down suspected RU drones over territorial waters

• Zelenskiy condemns U.S.-RU diesel deal, seeks additional support from EU

• U.S. reinstates intelligence sharing with Ukraine after last week's pause

• EUR targeting 1.1065 17-month low, break opens door for move towards 1.0733

• Range early Asia 1.1182-1.1224, support 1.1065 1.0733, resistance 1.1710
EUR Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP$ holds slight gain in NY afternoon, +0.28% at 1.3313; NorAm range 1.3371-1.3310

• Early NorAm session gains dialed back amid broad equity weakness, tech soft again

• Macro narrative shifting from inflation, fiscal & geopol concerns to USD long unwind

• Post-US CPI rise getting over its skis as Fed Chair Warsh mum on future policy moves

• Cable a high-yielder, sees its gains outpace other majors with lower yields

• LSEG's IRPR indicates BoE to hike in early-Nov, w/50% odds for further hike in Dec

• GBP$ res 1.3371 Friday high, 1.3406 50% Fib of 1.3675-1.3137, 1.3434 flat 200-DMA

• Supt 1.3300 psychological lvl, 1.3268 Friday low, 1.3254 daily conversion line

GBP Chart:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1255 after 1.1208-1.1269 traded overnight, choppy trading early

• Bears eventually took control however as USD, US yields

firmed up

• USD/CNH bounced off its low while gold, silver, stocks traded down in NY's afternoon

• EUR/USD neared 1.1210 then sat near 1.1225 late, traded near flat late in the day

• Daily RSI is rising but a daily inverted hammer formed which is a worry for bulls

• Falling monthly RSI, widening Bolli bands are also concerns for bulls
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)