• AUD (+0.3%) broadly consolidates as intra-day ranges tighten. Range: 0.6977-0.7047

• Payrolls miss provides brief respite for AUD/USD. Middle East conflict is still the focus

• 200-hour MAs at 0.7050-70 keep a lid on rebounds

• Sellers will continue to keep the weekly low at 0.6945 in sight

• That said, near-term support at 0.6980-0.7000 holds firm for now

• Going forward, geo tensions should drive the action
AUDUSD hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Goldman Sachs Research raised its Oil and USD/JPY forecasts earlier this week.

"Raised our 2Q26/4Q26/2027 Brent crude oil price forecasts to $76/$66/$70/bbl (from $66/$60/$65/bbl) and our average 2Q26 European (TTF) natural gas price forecast to €45/MWh (from €36/MWh) to reflect energy disruptions related to the ongoing conflict with Iran," GS notes.

"Raised our 3/6/12m USD/JPY forecasts to 160/158/155 (from 157/155/152) to reflect further depreciation pressure following the landslide LDP victory," GS adds.

• GBP$ firm in NY afternoon trading +0.22% at 1.3390; NorAm range 1.3408-1.3313

• Mideast tensions remain primary focus of markets, oil surging on supply uncertainty

• Pair whipsawed after US payrolls downside surprise; US yields ultimately lower post-data

• UK-side sees gilt yields move higher still; SONIA futs pricing diminshing odds for BoE cuts

• LSEG's IRPR indicating no BoE cuts in 2026; cut odds peak in summer near 40%; YE -9bp

• GBP$ res 1.3408 Friday high, 1.3445 flat 200-DMA, 1.3561- 50% Fib of 1.3867-1.3255

• Supt at multiple HMAs in low 1.3350's, 1.3298 daily low Mar 5, 1.3180 Dec 2 daily low

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research previews next week's US February CPI report.

"The February CPI report should continue to show that inflation remains relatively contained. We expect headline and core CPI to increase by 0.27% m/m (2.4% y/y) and 0.26% m/m (2.5% y/y), respectively. That is unlikely to tilt the scales for the Fed in either direction when it comes to its next policy move. Meanwhile, we expect the headline NSA index to print at 326.877," BofA notes.

"Fed implication risks are likely more important than print Based on our CPI forecast, we project that core PCE will increase by 0.22% m/m in February, which would follow a projected 0.43% m/m increase in Jan and leave y/y inflation at 2.9%. While this would be a decline from 3.1% y/y in Jan, we do not think it would change the current Fed rhetoric, especially with the risks posed by the Iran conflict," BofA adds.

• AUD/USD bounce on -92k payrolls was a dead cat - bid proved fleeting

• Geo risk is still the key driver keeping risk appetite on the backfoot

• Kuwait cutting production adds to oil supply concerns. Brent through $90/bbl

• Weekly lows at 0.6945 now squarely in focus - clean break opens up 0.6900

• Risks still skewed towards fading bounces. Resistance at 0.7090-0.7114

• No signs of de-escalation will keep AUD/USD trading heavy
audusd vs spx


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

CIBC Research reviews today's US February jobs report.

"The US labor market deteriorated sharply in February, with employers shedding 92K jobs, compounding negative revisions to the prior two month job count that totaled -69K. That resulted in the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.4%. That compared to the consensus expectation for a 55K gain in jobs and for the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.3%. Job losses were relatively widespread across industries, with leisure/hospitality (-27K), health/social assistance (-19K), and manufacturing (-12K) seeing the biggest drops," CIBC notes.

"Overall this still keeps intact our call for the Fed to cut rates, but the oil price shock could potentially delay the timing if the war doesn't end in the coming weeks," CIBC adds.

ANZ Research maintains a bearish bias on EUR/USD in the near-term.

"EUR/USD was among the weaker performers in the G10 this week, falling to 1.1530 on 3 March, its lowest level in nearly three months. The move was not entirely surprising, as options markets had begun pricing protection against EUR weakness earlier in the week, reflecting rising geopolitical uncertainty. 

Historically, such dynamics have weighed on EUR. During the Russia–Ukraine conflict in 2022, a stagflationary mix of weaker activity and renewed price pressures contributed to EUR/USD declining toward parity. While a repeat of that extreme scenario appears unlikely at this stage, uncertainty around the duration of the current conflict is keeping markets cautious. In the near term, geopolitical developments and energy price dynamics are likely to remain the dominant drivers for EUR," ANZ notes.

"We expect EUR/USD to remain under pressure, with 1.15 (21 Nov 25 low) as immediate support and next support at 1.14 (July 25 low), while 1.167 (200 DMA) should act as resistance on upside,' ANZ adds.

• $CAD a tad soft into NorAm, -0.12% at 1.3654; Friday range 1.3687-1.3647

• CAD firms w/oil, gold strength as other majors weaken on expanding Mideast tumult

• US payroll data 8.30AM NYT in focus for clues at Fed policy path; Fed cut odds waning

• LSEG's IRPR indicates Fed cut in Jun/July, -38bp for 2026; BoC seen hiking in Q4 2026

• Despite conflict-related volatility $CAD relavely steady w/offers above 1.37 intact

• $CAD res 1.3687 Fri high, 1.3706 bruised 50% Fib of 1.3929-1.3482, 1.3753 Mar 3 high

• Supt 1.3618 daily conversion line, 1.3563 lower 21-d Bolli, 1.3506 daily low Feb 11

$CAD Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

March 6 (Reuters) - Price action in FX options shows a market growing increasingly concerned about a deeper EUR/USD drop.

Traders have been buying EUR put options that give them the right to sell EUR/USD at fixed strikes in the future, with those strikes running from 1.1500 down to 1.1200 and beyond, across expiries in the coming weeks and months. These puts allow long EUR/USD positions to be hedged, while volatility traders stand to benefit from any spike in implied volatility that would accompany a sharp EUR/USD drop.

Risk reversals are an option used to capture volatility in a particular direction - charging an implied volatility premium for strikes in the direction deemed most likely to increase it. EUR/USD risk reversals have spiked significantly higher for EUR puts over calls this week - the benchmark one-month 25 delta reaching its highest downside over upside strike premium since June 2024 at 1.1. If EUR/USD doesn't fall further, buyers of these options lose only the upfront premium. But the jump in costs and demand shows traders are clearly concerned with the growing EUR risks tied to the Middle East conflict and its impact on energy prices and inflation.

Related - U.S. jobs a sideshow to Iran headline risk - options show
EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


EUR/USD FXO implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD (-0.02%) hovers near 0.70, geo tensions continue to drive sentiment

• Topside capped at the 0.7060-71 zone (200HMAs) - rebounds faded

• While U.S. payrolls is the scheduled event risk. Data has broadly taken a backseat

• But a firm beat would likely spark another leg lower in AUD/USD

• Clean break below 0.70 would open up the weekly low at 0.6945

• That said, AUD continues to perform on the crosses. AUD/NZD back above 1.19
AUDUSD hourly


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• Geopolitics remains the key driver which keeps GBP risks leaning lower

• Oil prices continue to linger near recent highs

• With no signs of de-escalation, recent trends should extend into the weekend

• GBP/USD range tight (1.3322/79) but a move to weekly low (1.3255) cannot be ruled out

• Below there and the door will likely open up for a move to 1.30

• Near-term resistance comes in at 1.3400 and 1.3444 (200DMA)
GBPUSD


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• Traders were betting over $23 billion before U.S. attacked Iran

• EUR/USD sank 1.1796-1.1530 after the attack

• The conflict continues and EUR/USD set to end the week around 1.16

• There are more profits to book and cause to bank them

• Techs more bearish after sustained drop below 200-DMA at 1.1674

• Profit-taking may continue to determine the direction of currencies

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

March 6 (Reuters) -

• EUR/USD FX option risk reversals reach 1.05 EUR puts over calls on Friday

• Exceeds Tues 0.8 peak - highest downside over upside premium since June 2024

• Comes amid ongoing demand for downside strikes as low as 1.1200

• Options market clearly wary of more EUR/USD weakness and needs to hedge the risk

• EUR/USD implied volatility edging back toward Tuesday's highs - 1-month 7.15

• Related - Option risk reversals - FX indicators and cash generators

• Related - FX options wrap - Calm on the surface, but smouldering risks
EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


EUR/USD FXO implied volatility

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY bid into the Tokyo for the day and week, 157.38 early to 157.91 EBS

• Holding close to the 157.95-97 double top February 9, March 3

• Stops eyed on 158.00 break but upside seen limited on FX action concerns

• USD/JPY tracking away from 156.94-157.21 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Tenkan 157.64 ahead, kijun too at 157.41, ascending 100-HMA 157.36 now

• Trading mostly light in Asia ahead of the weekend, US jobs report tonight

• Nikkei closed up 0.6% at 55,620.84, JGB yields firmed on inflation concerns

• Little new from FinMin Katayama, BOJ Himino in Diet testimony

• Related comment , on BOJ , also

• On Katayama/Himino-speak , , US jobs
USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD steady in Asia as Iran-U.S. conflict keeps traders side lined

• Elevated oil prices raise risk of global stagflation, cap GBP upside

• Traders mull report that US Treasury could unveil measures on oil futures

• Focus turns to U.S. NFP data Friday as bets on Fed rate cuts decline

• GBP support 1.3330-35, 1.3300-10, resistance 1.3400-10, 1.3440-50

• Thursday range 1.329801.3386; Asia range 1.3353-1.33715
OBR trims outlook for UK public sector borrowing:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.4% Fri as safe haven USD buying dissipates, oil eases back

• Bessent says U.S. will allow India to buy Russian oil for 30-days

• Traders trying to decipher longevity and various impacts of Iran war

• Goolsbee emphasises importance of Fed independence in controlling inflation

• AUD will remain highly reactive to news and external data for time being

• U.S. Feb non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +59k

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking in New York Fri

• Range Asia 0.70065-36, support 0.6943 0.6900, resistance 0.7158
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.2% Fri as markets try to calibrate impacts of Iran war

• Overnight USD safe haven buying eases, oil slightly off its highs

• Goolsbee emphasises importance of Fed independence in controlling inflation

• AUD support/resistance widely dispersed, USD & news flow guiding direction

• U.S. Feb non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +59k

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking in New York Fri

• Range Asia 0.70065-22, support 0.6943 0.6900, resistance 0.7158
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 5% to their lowest level since February 19

• The sub-index set for worst week since early February, if losses hold

• Gold prices retreat on rising U.S. Treasury yields, firmer dollar [GOL/]

• Northern Star Resources falls as much as 2.1% and Evolution Mining slips 3%

• AXGD down 6.7%, YTD

(Reporting by Nichiket Sunil in Bengaluru)

• NZD/USD -3.3% from Jan 29 0.60925 high, 5-week downswing turning into trend

• Pair probes 0.5877 200-DMA for third day, clean break would invigorate bears

• USD safe haven buying exacerbating move as Iran war continues to escalate

• Oil rally will negatively impact an import reliant NZ economy

• U.S. Feb non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +59k

• Range NZ 0.58745-0.5902, support 0.5580, resistance 0.6012 0.6076 0.6092
NZD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Credit Agricole CIB Research sees a scope for the USD to stay bid in the near-term.

"We believe that it is premature to expect a quick resolution to the US-Iran conflict and worry that the latest risk rally could be vulnerable to further escalation of the conflict in the near term," CACIB notes.

"We also note that the latest USD underperformance is increasingly at odds with the fact that US rate investors have pared back their Fed rate cut expectations by c.15bp – mainly in response to the oil price rally since the start of the US-Iran conflict. This is almost double the amount of the correction we have seen so far in Eurozone rates markets," CACIB adds.

• AUD/USD -0.9% late Thur as markets revisit USD safe haven trade

• Iran war continues to spread and intensify, de-escalation not in sight

• Oil continues to rally on supply fears, WTI +7.2% and Brent +4.2%

• AUD long term rally intact, break below 0.6943 would extend pullback

• U.S. Feb non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +59k

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking in New York Fri

• Overnight range 0.6974-0.7069, support 0.6943 0.6900, resistance 0.7158
AUD Weekly

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Cryptocurrency Ether falls 4% to $86.3 after Culper Research reveals short position

• Culper says it believes Ethereum's December 2025 Fusaka upgrade has weakened ETH's token economics

• The Fusaka upgrade increased Ethereum's Layer-1 gas limit from 45 million to 60 million units, expanding block capacity

• Culper's report also claims the creator of ETH, Vitalik Buterin, sold over 19,000 tokens in February, more than he had pre-announced

• The news of the short position comes as the broader crypto market remains under pressure

• Bitcoin fell as low as $60,000 in February, but analysts say prices might have now hit an inflection point after the recent bear market

• Meanwhile, ETH, which has a market cap of about $250 billion, as per CoinMarketCap, is down 30% YTD

(Reporting by Pragyan Kalita in Bengaluru)

The dollar rose broadly on Thursday, supported by another jump in oil prices and renewed haven demand as equities slumped. Oil rose more than 6% on supply concerns as the Iran conflict widens with Turkey condemning the Iranian drone attacks in Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave. U.S. President Donald Trump told Reuters the U.S. Iran operation is ahead of schedule though declined to give a timeline, adding that he wants to be involved in choosing Iran's next leader. He also expressed support for Kurdish forces launching an offensive against Iran and said he would take assistance from any country when asked about an offer of support from Ukraine on drones. In U.S. data ahead of Friday's payrolls report, jobless claims were largely unchanged in the latest week and Challenger's measure of announced job cuts fell to 48.3K in February. Three ECB policymakers warned that a prolonged Iran war drawing in more countries would likely push euro-zone inflation higher and weigh on growth. Separately, Israel's ambassador said it will soon become much harder for Iran to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and noted that Tehran’s missile fire is already declining. The dollar index stopped short of its weekly high seen after the first wave of attacks on Iran though one-month risk reversals favor further upside should volatility remain high. Any close above the 100 level would likely point to further gains.

EUR/USD traded heavy below 1.16 with elevated oil prices reinforcing the terms-of-trade drag. Rebounds near-term focus on Tuesday’s 1.1530 swing low, a break of which could open the way to 1.14. GBP/USD softened, but long tails suggest support near 1.33. Price action is largely driven by ongoing U.S./Israel–Iran hostilities though sticky UK inflation plus rising wages limit the scope for a more dovish Bank of England outlook. AUD/USD slid as a softer risk tone amid geopolitical tensions, higher Treasury yields, sliding CNH and lower metal prices weighed. Limited signs of de-escalation were keeping risks skewed lower into the weekend with near-term support at 0.6980–0.7000.

USD/JPY held firm as Iran-related escalation pushed WTI toward $80/bbl and weighed on equities. A bullish candle lends support though the pair is struggling to top 158 as intervention risks linger.

Treasury yields were up 4 to 6 basis points in solid futures turnover with the 2s-10s curve slipping to a new year-to-date low of +53.9bp.

The S&P 500 fell 1.29%.

Gold slid 1.2% and copper dropped 1.7%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.42%, USD/JPY +0.46%, GBP/USD -0.31%, AUD/USD -1.23%, DXY +0.47%, EUR/JPY +0.02%, GBP/JPY +0.11%, AUD/JPY -0.77%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

Nomura Research lowers the conviction on its long EUR/GBP position, with a target of 0.8950to to 3/5 from 4/5.

"We have been running a long EUR/GBP position, built around the view that cyclical interest rate pressures would be negative for GBP, and that political risks were more skewed to the downside in the UK. The escalation of military activity in the Middle East clearly raises the risk of more significantly negative terms-of-trade shocks for both economies and the risk of significant inflation pressures, if energy prices stay elevated," Nomura adds.

"In the short term, EUR may face slightly more pressure than GBP from these forces. The other near-term downside risk for EUR/GBP is that front-end rates pricing may have more scope to support GBP than EUR," Nomura adds.