• USD/JPY to 156.82 EBS yesterday, into 156.53-157.71 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Back below since and trading 156.12-38 so far in Asia

• BOJ Gov Ueda flagged March-April rate hike chance, effectively capping pair?

• Debate on BOJ hikes likely to continue with PM Takaichi seen against

• Daily cloud cap for now, support from flat daily kijun at 155.66

• Ascending 100-DMA below at 155.14 and daily tenkan at 154.69

• Cloud at peak today and to 155.72-75 by March 3, break above inevitable?

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials in flux, trend still down?

• Yesterday saw differential in 2s widen at bit to 223 bps, 10s off to 191 bps

• Option expiries today on small side, only smattering between 155.00-157.00

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on BOJ Ueda ,

• US markets , , ,

• Fed-speak , ,

• IMF on US , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

BNP Paribas Research discusses AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook.

"We are turning more bullish on AUDUSD, revising up our year-end forecast to 0.72 from 0.66. We also raise our NZDUSD forecast to 0.60 from 0.58, leaving AUDNZD at an imminent Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiking cycle as hard data have yet to improve materially.

We think that relative central bank divergence should contribute to AUD/NZD 1.20 by year end," BNPP notes.

"Two factors drive our change in view on AUDUSD: a shift in superannuation behaviour and the Reserve Bank of Australia hiking interest rates," BNPP adds.

• AUD/USD +0.9% late Wed after Wed's higher than expected CPI update

• RBA Governor Bullock flagged need for patience in setting policy path

• USD index -0.2% after failing to break above pivotal 97.96 55-DMA

• U.S. equities firmer ahead of important Nvidia results, due post-close

• AU Q4 capex data & U.S. initial jobless claims (poll +215K) due Thur

• Overnight range 0.7073-0.71244, support 0.6900 0.6660, resistance 0.7158
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar fell on Wednesday, sliding again during the New York session, as haven demand faded amid rising tech stocks ahead of Nvidia’s earnings and softer oil prices. Oil fell after reports that OPEC+ is considering an April output increase, partly offsetting Iran-supply concerns, and a much larger-than-expected U.S. crude inventory build.

The dollar index retreated after failing once again to break above its 55-day moving average at 98.00, mirroring repeated setbacks seen over the past week.

USD/CNH posted its biggest drop since August, sliding to a 34-month low under 6.86 and pressing against its lower Bollinger.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz urged renewed partnership with China. Fed speak leaned slightly hawkish with Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid saying that too high inflation remains a key problem, while St. Louis Fed President Albert Musalem said it is important to finish the job on inflation and that policy is currently balanced. Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin said AI may not wipe out many jobs and could help workers learn new ones. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that the U.S. tariff rate for some countries will rise to 15% or higher from the newly imposed 10%. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said that President Donald Trump still preferred a diplomatic solution with Iran and that he hoped Iranians took that seriously in their negotiations on Thursday.

EUR/USD bounced from 1.1775 to 1.1814 on softer U.S. yields, broad USD selling, firm risk assets, and a fresh USD/CNH low, with mixed techs ahead of Thursday’s jobless-claims risk. GBP/USD rose to 1.3560 after a 1.3567–1.3492 range, clearing the 50- and 10-DMAs and targeting the 21-DMA as traders shrugged off dovish BoE expectations, weighed U.S. trade-policy risks, and looked to upcoming U.S. data and BoE’s Huw Pill on Friday.

AUD/USD reversed early losses to hit 0.7124 as easing yields, a softer USD, stronger risk assets, and a fresh USD/CNH low supported a bullish technical backdrop ahead of Q4 CAPEX. USD/JPY fell back below the 156.43–157.54 cloud on broad USD weakness and improved risk tone, shifting focus to supports near 155–155.60 ahead of BOJ board member Hajime Takata’s speech and month-end flows.

The S&P 500 was up 0.76%.

WTI crude oil fell marginally.

Gold rose 1.0%, silver gained 3.9% and copper edged up 0.9%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.28%, USD/JPY +0.31%, GBP/USD +0.47%, AUD/USD +0.91%, DXY -0.14%, EUR/JPY +0.60%, GBP/JPY +0.78%, AUD/JPY +1.21%.(Burton Frierson)

ANZ Research maintains a bullish bias on Gold.

"Underlying fundamentals remain intact, as accommodative monetary policy has room to extend through to Q4 2026. We now expect the Fed to resume cuts in Q2 – likely June – and to add another cut in Q4, bringing the terminal rate down to 3% from the current 3.75%. This trajectory will support non-yielding gold," ANZ notes.

"Renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran are set to revive haven demand for gold. And ongoing Russia-Ukraine talks suggest persistent volatility in the geopolitical backdrop. Economic risks linger, with markets yet to see the effects of increased US tariffs; and financial risks are mounting amid concerns around the AI-driven equity rally...

Amid these uncertainties, we believe gold remains a compelling hedge against market risks. Investor positioning is less crowded after the latest profit taking, leaving ample room for investors to build fresh long positions," ANZ adds

• Ether rallied sharply Wednesday, it traded up +9.68% into Europe's close

• The cryptocurrency rallied 1847.14-2039.13, traded to a 7-session high

• Ether also rallied above the 10-DMA which had been helping to limit the upside

• Daily RSI rose from near oversold territory, indicates short-term bull momentum

• A daily close above the 10-DMA could give Ether bulls some confidence

• Monthly techs remain bearish though, suggests any rally may be only a correction
eth


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses EUR/USD outlook.

"We remain bullish EURUSD but continue to expect the larger move to materialise from 2Q onward once the US peak tax‑refund season has passed and Germany's fiscal impulse is more visible in the data. The risk to this view is an earlier, sharper rally if structural buying by European investors accelerates, whether through US asset sales or more active hedge‑ratio adjustments," BofA notes.

So far, however, price action, flows and hedging drivers offer little evidence of this. Positioning for EURUSD upside via limited‑upside structures- we have recommended call spreads remains more attractive than outright longs in the near term. The risk to the trade is US data resilience," BofA adds.

Despite today's rise, sterling is likely to face renewed downward pressure in the near-term as the prospect of interest rate divergence between the BoE and the Fed may favor the U.S. dollar.

With cooling UK inflation and tepid growth, LSEG’s IRPR sees a 76% chance of a 25bp cut in March.

In contrast, the Fed's relatively more hawkish outlook has left the market expecting cuts to be be postponed until July, with an 80% probability assigned to this timeline.

Although both central banks are projected to cut twice over the full year, the BoE’s front-loaded path suggests a lower near-term drift for GBP/USD.

However, this path will likely remain circuitous given the high fluidity of U.S. tariff policies, trade negotiations, and broader geopolitics.

Technically, cable is currently navigating a tightening range between significant levels.

Immediate resistance is at 1.3548, aligned with the Ichimoku Conversion Line and the 10-DMA, followed by more formidable overhead resistance at the Ichimoku Base Line of 1.3634 and the Feb. 4 high at 1.3733.

On the downside, the 200-DMA at 1.3447 serves as a critical floor. A breach here would likely accelerate a slide toward the lower Bollinger Band at 1.3336.

As the market digests the March BoE decision and guidance, these levels will be pivotal in determining if the current drift evolves into a more sustained bearish trend, which could put late-November lows near 1.30 in sharper focus.
Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research sees a scope for USD upside on month-end fixing flows.

"On the structural side, concerns about rebalancing out of the US remain a drag on the USD and support EUR/USD. The latest spike of US trade policy risks seems to support the bearish USD-view as FX investors shun the US policy and economic uncertainty. In addition, valuation concerns erode the appeal of USD assets," CACIB notes.

"That said, we also note that the more recent USD recovery has coincided with US stock market weakness. This may suggest that the USD is benefitting from the unwinding of short-USD hedges that foreign investors have put into place. Our month-end rebalancing model predicts that they will continue to buy USD this week," CACIB adds.

Morgan Stanley Research summarizes its latest reading for options and future pricing data.

"Options pricing data indicate that investors increased long DXY positions and increased short GBP positions. In the futures market, investors increased long JPY positions, while they increased short GBP positions," MS notes.

"Overall, options data suggest that tactical investors are currently long NOK (vs. EUR) and AUD, while being short GBP.  Positioning in the futures market is long EUR, and short NZD and CHF," MS adds.

Feb 25 (Reuters) - ** U.S.-listed shares of silver miners gain premarket, tracking rising prices of the metal [GOL/]

• Spot silver increased 2.9% to $89.86 per ounce, reaching its highest level since February 4

• Shares of Hecla Mining advance about 3%, while Coeur Mining edged 1.9% higher

• Among Canadian miners, Endeavour Silver gains 2.5%, and Silvercorp Metals rise 3.6%

• Silver-backed ETFs also rallies, with Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust rising 3.6% each, ProShares Ultra Silver jumps 7%

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru)

Feb 25 (Reuters) - USD/JPY's latest recovery will likely be curtailed by the thick daily cloud resistance that currently spans the 156.43-157.54 region. The yen has remained under pressure on concerns that the Bank of Japan may turn more dovish. Japan's government on Wednesday nominated two academics seen by markets as strong advocates of economic stimulus to join the central bank's board, in moves interpreted as reflecting the Takaichi administration's monetary policy preferences.

USD/JPY rose from 155.35 to 156.65 on Wednesday and is trading within the daily cloud.

We backtested a strategy that trades off the cloud by selling when the price rallies into the cloud or buying when the price dips to the cloud, with a fixed 10-session holding period for every trade. The strategy generated a cumulative return near 32% across 65 trades with a win rate of 66.15% when tested across multiple timeframes and market conditions between 2018 and 2026.

The 30- and 60-day log correlation coefficients between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are both above +0.50, meaning that the two currency pairs will likely weaken in tandem.
Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own; Editing by Alison Williams)

• The trade-weighted yen hit a record low in January

• USD/JPY now 156 was trading at 358 in 1971

• A minor correction of the USD/JPY's long-term drop is 183.61

• FX interventions are usually focused on USD/JPY, buying or selling

• Official talk and recent Fed rate check suggest further intervention

• OPEC may strongly influence the future path of the U.S. dollar

•
USDJPY


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Hedging of soon-to-expire massive EUR/USD FX options exerts a gravitational pull on spot

• There are billions of euros of strikes around 1.1800 expiring this week

• A massive 11-billion euros of strikes between 1.1770 and 1.1825 expire Wednesday

• DTCC traded options data shows further 10-billion euros in this zone expiring on Thursday

• Friday still has a significant 1.5 billion euros at 1.1800 and 2.5 billion at 1.1800 Monday
EUR/USD FX option strike expiries Feb 25 - March 2


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Stocks that are rallying tend to fuel broader speculation and investment

• Over the past year, the dollar has been broadly sold during the equity boom

• The most popular FX wager by far is a long euro position

• At $26 billion, bullish euro bets are among the largest positions on record

• Unfortunately, EUR/USD has faltered at the key 1.20 level

• Renewed strength in stocks may provide the impetus for another test of 1.20

• Euro longs could grow and may even exceed the $31 billion record bullish wager

•
EURUSD and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD rises to 0.7116 following hotter than expected Australian CPI data

• Core inflation rises to 16-month high, 3.4%. It was forecast at 3.3%

• 0.7116 is the highest level since Feb 12 (0.7146 was three-year high that day)

• Asia low was 0.7058, pre-CPI data. 0.7027-0.7070 was NY range Tuesday

• RBA Governor Bullock is due to speak in Melbourne at 0840 GMT

• Trump hails "golden age" in State of the Union speech

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/15.00 GMT on Wednesday February 25

• EUR/USD: 1.1750-55 (2.2BLN), 1.1770-80 (1.6BLN), 1.1790 (662M), 1.1800 (3.9BLN)

• 1.1805-15 (1.8BLN), 1.1825 (2.8BLN), 1.1830-40 (1.8BLN), 1.1845-50 (3BLN)

• 1.1875 (1.2BLN), 1.1900 (5.1BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.7700 (500M), 0.7725 (787M), 0.7750 (218M). EUR/CHF: 0.9065 (378M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8680-90 (580M), 0.8725 (240M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3450 (467M), 1.3475 (448M), 1.3550-60 (964M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7100 (2.4BLN), 0.7135 (735M), 0.7130 (451M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5950 (358M). AUD/NZD: 1.1850 (503M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3650 (646M), 1.3680-85 (733M)

• USD/JPY: 155.00-10 (3BLN), 155.25-35 (922M), 155.90-156.00 (3.5BLN)

• FX options wrap - Tracking the evolving FX outlook (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY, JPY crosses push back and move lower after overnight rallies

• Profit-takes by longs, fresh shorts? Takaichi concern with weak yen helped

• That said, damage done after news o/n Takaichi concerned over BOJ hikes

• JPY under pressure again later on news two academics nominated for BOJ board

• USD/JPY in 155.35-156.04 EBS range in Asia, holding under daily Ichi cloud

• Daily Ichimoku cloud 156.43-157.54, to peak between 156.53-157.71 tomorrow

• Then fall off hard to 155.72-77 March 3, break into cloud inevitable?

• Supports at 155.09 100-HMA, 154.66-82 hourly Ichi cloud, 154.23 200-HMA

• Plenty of massive option expiries in area today, on both sides

• 154.95-155.05 total $2.4 bln, 155.10-35 $1.9 bln, 155.90-156.00 $3.5 bln

• And between 156.20-60 $1.4 bln, 157.50-80 $1.9 bln

• Japanese importer demand at today's Gotobi Tokyo fix proved supportive

• EUR/JPY to 184.15 EBS, briefly above 181.06-183.85 daily Ichimoku cloud o/n

• Off some since, range thereafter 183.22-87, back in cloud

• EUR/JPY E509 mln option expiries today between 182.50-80 strikes below

• GBP/JPY 210.84 o/n, remained in its 208.26-211.47 cloud, Asia 209.93-210.79

• AUD/JPY 110.43 o/n, Asia 109.91 early to 110.71, towards 110.78 high Feb 9

• Massive A$1.2 bln option expiries today below between 106.15-25 strikes

• Also 106.48 A$371 mln and 109.75 A$301 mln

• Related , , on Takaichi ,

• On BOJ nominations , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD rallies 0.2% in Asia as U.S. tariff uncertainty weighs on dollar

• Trump delivers State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress

• No significant policy remarks yet but he could comment on trade, Iran

• Markets nervous as investors fear Trump's speech may increase volatility

• BoE's Bailey cautious tone on rate cut Tuesday underpins GBP

• Focus turns to Manchester election Thu, could cause more woes for PM Starmer

• Resistance 1.3540, 1.3580, support 1.3470, 1.3440; Asia range 1.3496-1.3520
UK minimum wage will rise to £12.71 an hour from April 2026:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.4% Wed as renewed buying puts break above 0.7158 on agenda

• Higher than expected Jan inflation firms chances of Mar 17 RBA hike

• AU Jan monthly CPI +0.4% m/m, 3.8% y/y (poll +0.26%, +3.7% respectively)

• Trump delivering State of the Union address, says U.S. winning too much

• Global risk sentiment concerns abate for now, precious metals softer

• RBA Governor Bullock fireside chat at Melbourne University Wed evening

• Range Asia 0.70579-89, support 0.6900 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD up 0.1% in Asia as traders await Trump's State of the Union address

• Speech could touch on potentially market-moving policies such as trade, Iran

• Markets nervous as investors fear Trump's speech may increase volatility

• BoE's Bailey on Tuesday says Mar rate cut is 'genuinely open question',

• Highlights higher-than-expected services inflation

• But traders continue to expect rate cuts, price in 2 cuts for 2026

• Resistance 1.3540, 1.3580, support 1.3470, 1.3440; Tue range 1.3470-1.3536

• Asia range 1.3496-1.35045
Tariff winners and losers by country:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.3% Wed after hotter than anticipated inflation update

• AU Jan monthly CPI +0.4% m/m, 3.8% y/y (poll +0.26%, +3.7% respectively)

• U.S. President Donald Trump delivering State of the Union address 0200 GMT

• Global risk sentiment concerns easing, precious metals lower

• RBA Governor Bullock fireside chat at Melbourne University Wed evening

• Range Asia 0.70579-82, support 0.6900 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

BNP Paribas Research discusses CAD outlook.

"We maintain our view that the CAD will be a laggard within the G10 complex and forecast USDCAD at 1.43 by year end. Given left-tail risks for the broader USD, CAD weakness is likely to be clearer cut via underperformance on crosses and see EURCAD ending the year at 1.72," BNPP notes.

"The underlying rationale for our view is based on a potential increase in US trade policy uncertainty. We see this materializing in the two ways set out below, both of which are negative for Canada," BNPP adds.

• NZD/USD -2.1% from Jan 29 0.60925 high, 2026 gains look to be at risk

• RBNZ's less hawkish tone continues to limit potential of short-term rallies

• 0.5930 support zone an inflection point, break below will compound losses

• U.S. President Donald Trump delivering State of the Union address 0200 GMT

• Global risk sentiment fears wane, equities recover & precious metals soften

• Range NZ 0.59654-735, support 0.5930 0.5730 0.5580, resistance 0.6120
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)