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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By John Noonan  —  Mar 29 - 09:25 PM
  • AUD/USD has whipped between 0.6113/82 through the Asian morning

  • Sellers lined up ahead of 0.6200 likely to contain the upside for now

  • Steep 4% fall in Nikkei encouraging AUD/JPY selling - with cross down 0.80%

  • AUD/USD buyers between 0.6110/20 underpinning for now

  • The risk is to the downside due to global growth and weak demand concerns

  • Brent oil futures down -5.0% while copper -0.4% and Dalian iron ore -1.4%

  • AUD/USD break below 0.6100 targets the 10-day MA 0.5945







aud/usd IMAGE Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Mar 29 - 06:40 PM
  • AUD/USD fell as low as 0.6113 as Asia off to a cautious start

  • S&P futures around 1.7% lower in early Asia after weak close on Friday

  • Support at Friday's low at 0.6023 with break targeting 10-day MA at 0.5943

  • AUD/USD gained over 6.0% last week and closed 12% higher than 0.5510 low

  • Recovery due to efforts by central banks to ease funding stress

  • Focus back on spread and impact of coronavirus - which may weigh on AUD/USD


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Mar 29 - 06:40 PM
  • Off 0.3%, as JPY crosses sold with risk - E Mini S&P futures -1.8%

  • France nL8N2BM0RF, Italy nL8N2BM0R0 & Spain nL8N2BM09X hit hard

  • E-mini S&P trade off 1.3% early, extending Friday's losses on Wall Street

  • Charts; momentum studies climb, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict - net neutral

  • Close above 1.1079 200 DMA was positive - 1.1166, 61.8% March fall caps

  • 1.1050-65 1.252Bln, 1.1090-1.1100 650M strikes support, 1.1125 2.2BLN magnet

  • Early Asian 1.1108-1.1140 range initial support-resistance

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Mar 29 - 03:05 PM
  • AUD/USD opens 0.25% lower in early Asia as global virus toll continues rise

  • Weighed down by profit taking following strong 1.75% rally on Friday

  • Dips likely limited; USD on back foot after biggest weekly fall since 2009

  • Massive stimulus efforts by govts , c.banks stabilize financial markets

  • Cash handouts, bond buying: $10 trln-plus deployed against virusnL8N2BK3O3

  • But need better news on virus for sustained AUD recovery nL8N2AB5TN

  • Resistance 0.6200, 0.6230-35, 0.6270-75, support 0.6125-30, 0.6090-0.6100

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 27 - 02:00 PM

NAB discusses AUD/JPY technical outlook and adopts a bearish bias on a multi-days basis.

"In 2009, AUD/JPY rallied from below 56.00 to above 72.00 in four months. Price remained above 70/72 for 10 year+. With price back below 70/72 there is very little reference with regards to support levels, hence the impulsive decline to a low of 59.91 last week.

The subsequent upswing lasted five days and has topped out around the 20 day MA. This is often the case in corrections after lower Bollinger bands have been breached. Wednesday's Gravestone Doji implies that the multi-day correction is complete and returns AUD/JPY to a MT downtrend bias," NAB notes. 

"We anticipate a retest below 60.00 in the coming weeks. Further downside risk," NAB adds. 

Source:
NAB Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Mar 27 - 01:55 PM
  • US$ buying takes hold in Europe's morning, extends into NY's morning

  • AUD/USD falls back below the 50% Fibo of 0.6685-0.5510 nL1N2BK0DT

  • Sharp equities drop along with copper, oil falls help weigh down AUD/USD

  • Pair quickly dives below 0.6025 but bears lose traction into Europe's close

  • Large US$ selling against most major currencies ensues, AUD/USD rallies

  • Persistent US$ selling drives AUD/USD above 0.6160 late in the day

  • Key Fibo & March 17 high break, risings RSI signal techs lean bullish

chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Mar 27 - 01:00 PM
  • GBP/USD well bid post-Lon cls +1.66% at 1.2415; NY range 1.2440-1.2181

  • Pair gallops higher eyes res 1.2517 61.8% Fib of 1.32-1.1413, 30-DMA 1.2545

  • Pair +8.76% in runup from 1.1413 low Mar 20; expect 200-DMA to cap by 1.2669

  • Talk wk/month-end flows providing lift, mkt severely o/s caught traders short

  • EUR/GBP dip keeps pace w/GBP hints at significant month-end cross selling

  • EUR/GBP -1.27% at 0.8940, Friday range 0.9071-0.8913; EUR weakest of majors vs USD

GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 27 - 12:15 PM

Societe Generale Research adopts a bearish bias on USD/JPY and a neutral bias on EUR/USD.

"USD/JPY has tracked currency basis dislocation and should now move lower again, particularly if we see renewed faith in the yen as protection for a return of equity market weakness in the weeks ahead," SocGen notes. 

"We wouldn't sell the dollar against EMFX, or against currencies which are highly growth-sensitive, but EUR/USD may be range-bound unless we get a positive European surprise on fiscal policy," SocGen adds. 

Source:
Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Mar 27 - 10:45 AM

Sterling remains bid, trading at 1.2270 in early NorAm, as gargantuan economic and liquidity aid underpins markets.
However, cable retreated from overnight highs by 1.2304 in Asia nL1N2BK0GDbefore hitting the 50% Fib of the 1.3200-1.1413 drop at 1.2307.
Data released Thursday indicated the Fed's swap lines to the UK and other central banks helped alleviate global dollar funding pressures nAQN02BPX7.
GBP 3-month currency basis swaps have narrowed from -68 on March 16 to +25 currently, above its 30-DMA of -8.1. Traders have covered GBP/USD positions, alleviating oversold positioning, as funding pressures ease and $2tln of U.S. economic aid appears likely.
After
1.2307, further resistance includes the 21-DMA at 1.2366 to the 100-DMA by 1.2884. Despite the rally off 35-year lows, significant risks to the downside for GBP/USD remain.
First, recent moves to stabilize USD funding and global economies may prove inadequate should the coronavirus linger.
Second, there remains significant work to do on the EU-UK trade front before the Dec. 31 2020 deadline.
Either of these issues, or a combination of the two could rapidly put GBP/USD back near recent lows.


GBP Chart: Click here

GBP CBS Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 27 - 08:25 AM

TD Research outlines its high-conviction top tactical trades in the near-term. 

"Our top trade remains short CHFJPY, reflecting an imbalance between the havens. On the CHF leg, positioning and HFFV both screen at more extreme levels, suggesting another 2% drop before things even out...Meanwhile, as the fiscal year ends in Japan, GPIF rebalancing winds down, perhaps we could see things move a lot faster in the days ahead," TD notes. 

"We also like short GBPAUD, though much of the dislocation comes in on the AUD side. It's trading at a +3% discount to HFFV, while positioning runs at one of the lowest levels in the G10. 

We also like NZDCAD, which a simple way to play something that's moderately mispriced (1.70% on HFFV) despite the fact the market is equally short both legs,' TD adds.  

Source:
TD Bank Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Mar 27 - 07:40 AM
  • US$ sold in Asia, AUD/USD pierces 50% Fib of 0.6685-0.5510, 0.6126 trades

  • Greenback bounces while AUD/USD basis swaps AUDCBS3M=ICAP widen again

  • Equities fall, risk sentiment sours, investors flock to safety into weekend

  • AUD/USD gains from overnight erode, 0.6050 neared before bounce near 0.6090

  • Daily RSI rises, long upper wick forms on daily candle; daily techs mixed

  • A daily close above the 50% Fibo would bolsters longs' confidence






chart: Click here

chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Mar 27 - 05:30 AM

3rd line: Changed (March) to (Jan to Mar

  • Dollar finds crucial support after biggest drop since 2016 nL1N2BK098

  • GBP/USD broke and closed above the 1.2099 key Fibonacci level

  • 1.2099 Fibo is a 38.2% retrace of the 1.3210 to 1.1413 (Jan to Mar) drop

  • But bulls have subsequently hit a brick wall near the 1.2312 Fibo

  • Meaning the upside might be limited. 1.2312 Fibo is 50% of the same fall

  • GBP/USD Trader TGM2338. Previous update nL1N2BJ09R

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Mar 27 - 05:10 AM
  • EUR/USD setback runs in to hedge flows from huge expiries nL1N2BK099

  • However, dealers wary of weekend news and related volatility

  • There's also the danger of month end and thin liquidity nL1N2BK0AC

  • Insuring that via overnight/Monday expiry options is expensive

  • Break-even for straddle 80 pips - pre crisis average typically 25 pips

  • 1-week implied volatility is 12.0 from 20.0 on Monday, but 4.0 last month

  • That's still a break-even for straddles of 146 pips in either direction

  • 1-month implied volatility 9.5 from 15.3 Monday (3.75 record low last month)




EUR=EBS: Click here

EURUSD implied volatility: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Mar 27 - 03:05 AM
  • Considering the crisis EUR/USD has been amazingly stable

  • Despite some wild swings pair remains locked in its downtrend

  • Week of spike to 1.1495 pair still closed below weekly cloud

  • This week's spike also set to close below base of cloud

  • Weekly Ichimoku cloud 1.1105-1.1251. 55-WMA 1.1122 and 21-WMA is 1.1040

  • Given current will to sell dollars traders are still prepared to gamble

  • Gamblers know the trend is their friend. Picking tops is prudent














EURUSD weekly: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Mar 27 - 03:00 AM
  • EUR/USD: 1.0900 (1BLN), 1.0915-20 (480M), 1.0950 (375M), 1.1000 (1.1BLN)

  • 1.1025 (600M), 1.1150 (570M)

  • GBP/USD: 1.1800 (311M), 1.1945-50 (500M)

  • USD/CHF: 0.9500 (400M), 0.9600 (240M).

  • USD/CAD: 1.3850 (500M), 1.3900 (500M), 1.4200 (270M), 1.4300 (500M)

  • USD/JPY: 108.00 (250M), 108.35 (360M), 109.50-60 (1BLN)

  • 110.00 (1.4BLN), 110.20-30 (900M)

  • EUR/JPY: 120.85 (1.8BLN). AUD/JPY: 68.50 (500M)

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Mar 26 - 10:50 PM
  • +0.4%, holding up well with E-mini S&P -1.3% and the ASX 200 -2.3%

  • No significant news, thin markets into the weekend - 0.6035-0.6105 range

  • Federal and state leaders meet to discuss coronavirus measures nL4N2BJ5I4

  • Charts; positive momentum studies and a bullish 5 & 10 DMA cross

  • 10 & 21 daily, weekly and monthly MAs track south, so conflicting signals

  • This setup usually results in choppy range trading - 0.5700-0.6200 possible

  • 0.6097, 50% March fall tested - 0.6231, 61.8% & 21 DMA major resistance

  • Earlier 0.6035 low the yesterday's 0.5870 base initial support

aud 2 mar 27 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Mar 26 - 10:50 PM
  • +0.4%, holding up well with E-mini S&P -1.3% and the ASX 200 -2.3%

  • No significant news, thin markets into the weekend - 0.6035-0.6105 range

  • Federal and state leaders meet to discuss coronavirus measures nL4N2BJ5I4

  • Charts; positive momentum studies and a bullish 5 & 10 DMA cross

  • 10 & 21 daily, weekly and monthly MAs track south, so conflicting signals

  • This setup usually results in choppy range trading - 0.5700-0.6200 possible

  • 0.6097, 50% March fall tested - 0.6231, 61.8% & 21 DMA major resistance

  • Earlier 0.6035 low the yesterday's 0.5870 base initial support

aud 2 mar 27 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Mar 26 - 08:30 PM
  • +0.1% in a low key session - modest volumes ahead of weekend uncertainty

  • E-mini S&P +0.5%, Nikkei +3.4% and Asiax JP stocks +0.9% - positive risk

  • Trump to receive new coronavirus recommendations this weekend nL1N2BJ3K2

  • Charts; positive momentum studies and a bullish 5& 10 DMA cross

  • 10 & 21 daily, weekly and monthly MAs track south, so conflicting signals

  • This setup usually results in choppy range trading - perhaps 0.5700-0.6200

  • 0.6097, 50% of the March fall then 0.6229/36, 61.8% & 21 DMA resistance

  • Yesterday's 0.5870 low then this week's 0.5699 base support

aud mar 27 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Mar 26 - 06:40 PM
  • USD/JPY under pressure in Asia after opening 1.4% lower on dismal U.S. data

  • Powell says US 'may well be in recession'; US jobless claims soar to record

  • Massive global stimulus addition, Fed liquidity-enhancing measures hit USD

  • JPY cross currency basis swap erase hefty losses dash to cash subsides

  • Test of NYK 109.21 imminent; 23.6% of 101.18 to 111.71 rally is at 109.23

  • Stronger support at 108.60-70; resistance 109.80, 110.10-20


U.S. jobless claims JPG: Click here

Fed balance sheet tops $5 trillion: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 26 - 04:15 PM

MUFG Research discusses GBP outlook and sees scope for further gains in the near-term.

"The pound’s rebound has been less impressive so far. Cable has risen back towards the 1.2100-level after hitting an intra-day low of 1.1412 on the 20th March, but still remains around 10 big figures below where it was trading at the start of the month," MUFG notes. 

"Financial market conditions would need to normalise further in the near-term to encourage the pound to extend its rebound," MUFG adds. 

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
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