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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Jul 04 - 10:05 AM

Amends typo in headline

  • Euro zone investor morale slumps on grim expectations nS8N2SF05G

  • EUR/USD trades 1.0418-62 EBS Jul 4, quiet due U.S. holiday

  • Traders pare an already small bet on EUR/USD falling nL1N2YL0AW

  • EUR/USD is no longer oversold, there is now ample scope to drop

  • Oversold tech situation halted slides in March and May

  • Base 20-month Bollinger bands is 1.0338, 20-week 1.0250, 20-day 1.0355

  • Next targets for current trend: 1.0055 and 0.9828

  • Money markets provide certainty where EUR/USD is heading nL1N2YL0CB






Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jul 04 - 08:10 AM
  • Cable climbs to 1.21562 as risk-sensitive pound benefits from WSJ report

  • WSJ-Biden might soon soften Chinese tariffs. 1.2162 = intra-day high

  • 1.2162 is also the highest level since Friday's two-week low of 1.1976

  • Trump-era tariffs on China have been under review by Biden since May

  • See: nL2N2X21K4nL1N2Y80E6. Lifting them would be positive for risk

  • Offers expected pre-1.22 if GBP/USD extends north (1.2189 was Thursday high)

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jul 04 - 04:55 AM
  • Long lower candle shadow Friday eased some of the over sold condition

  • Daily momentum has flipped to positive, first since June 8

  • Underlying trend bearish and up-ticks provide better entry into the trend

  • Long lower candle on weekly could be a concern but again seen corrective

  • Pivotal level topside 1.2322, 10 week moving average: all change above

    For more click on FXBUZ
















Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jul 04 - 04:45 AM
  • Dollar likely to climb versus yen the daily chart shows nL1N2YK0GX

  • Friday's 135.99 high is vulnerable to an eventual retest

  • It has seen a 134.80-135.51 range, on Monday, according to EBS data

  • Thin trading conditions in London as U.S. July 4 holiday dampens activity

  • Energy shares boost European equities ahead of inflation data nL4N2YL192

  • In times of risk appetite, funds usually flow out of the safe-haven yen

  • EUR/JPY's 30/60-day long correlations with USD/JPY well above +0.50

  • The two currency pairs close in the same direction more often than not

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Jul 04 - 03:55 AM

Money markets provide certainty about EUR/USD direction.
Unlike EUR/USD, which has been surprisingly static since the Fed's big interest rate hike in June with traders reluctant to sell, there has been clear divergence between U.S. and eurozone interest rates and that big split weighs EUR/USD. nL1N2YL0AW

The divide equates to 22 EUR/USD pips per month or 288 per year.
In February, before the first Fed hike, the one month EUR/USD forward swap was around 7 pips, and one year 18 pips.
Before taper talk emerged in 2021 the one year swap was 88 pips.

EUR/USD has dropped 1.2256-1.0349 since the Federal Reserve outlined a plan to taper last June but has been remarkably stable for several months with traders often betting a lot of cash on rally and rarely venturing short.

EUR/USD has never rallied far and it keeps slipping back towards the low inspired by U.S. policy.
The trend is clearly defined and those short earn via interest rates.
If traders embrace the trend, EUR/USD could fall much further.

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jul 04 - 03:00 AM
  • Cable has traded 30.5 pip range thus far Monday: 1.2120 = intra-day high

  • 1.2120 is also the high water-mark since Friday's 1.1976 low nL1N2YI1LJ

  • 1.1976 was low since 27-month low of 1.1934 on June 14 (pre-75 bps Fed hike)

  • Demand for safe-haven USD amid global recession fears fuelled drop to 1.1976

  • 10-year UST yield plumbed five-week low of 2.80% Friday (vs 3.25% June 28)

  • IMM speculators reduce net GBP short position to 11-week low nL1N2YL09L

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jul 04 - 02:50 AM
  • Last week's big price swings led to long upper and lower candle shadows

  • Predominantly bearish the moves flipped 14-day momentum to negative

  • Thursday's drop breached daily trend support but price closed above

  • The line odd the Apr 14 0.8250 low comes in at 0.8582 today

  • We bid just ahead of the line looking for 0.8721 and would set a tight stop

  • Weekly action closed below 100WMA and cloud top, 0.8648 and 0.8686

    For more click on FXBUZ
















Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jul 04 - 02:30 AM

Removed an "a" from the first line

  • Bulls are fighting back, leaving long tails on Thursday and Friday candles

  • That is usually a sign that the downside has been rejected

  • Outlook is in balance while the mkt remains under Wed's 1.0535 (EBS) high

  • We are long at 1.0425 in anticipation for a bullish resumption

  • We have placed our stop under the 1.0340 2017 low

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous EUR/USD update nL1N2YI0DQ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jul 03 - 11:40 PM
  • AUD/USD opened 0.6815 after falling 1.25% on Friday

  • It traded to 0.6827 early before coming under pressure

  • E-mini futures fell 0.7% and weighed on AUD/USD and AUD/JPY

  • AUD/USD fell to 0.6796 before buyers returned and discourage further losses

  • AUD/USD is trading around 0.6810 heading into the afternoon session

  • Dalia iron ore is down 5.5% as global growth worries impacts demand

  • AXJ equity index is flat despite the strong lead from Wall Street

  • AUD/USD trending lower with the 5, 10 & 21-day MAs in a bearish alignment

  • It is likely going to remain vulnerable while growth concerns weigh

  • Resistance is at the 10-day MA at 0.6897 and break would ease pressure

  • Support is at the 50% of the 0.5510/0.8007 move at 0.6758

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jul 03 - 09:35 PM
  • AUD/USD testing after trading up to 0.6827 earlier in session

  • E-minis -0.65% after the S&P closed up 1.05% on Friday

  • AUD/JPY is down 0.40% as the Asian markets give back some early gains

  • AUD/USD support is at the 50% of the 0.5510/0.8007 move at 0.6758

  • Bids are eyed around Friday's 0.6764 low

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jul 03 - 09:20 PM
  • EUR/USD steady in Asia around 1.0430 after falling 0.53% on Friday nL1N2YI1IK

  • It traded as low as 1.0366 on Friday - just above major support at 1.0340/60

  • EUR/USD trending lower with the 5, 10 & 21-day MAs in a bearish alignment

  • Resistance is at the 10-day MA at 1.0507 and break would ease the pressure

  • EUR/USD will likely test 1.0340/60 support zone if risk assets swoon again

  • E-minis -0.60% - suggesting Friday's Wall Street rally may be short-lived

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jul 03 - 06:45 PM
  • AUD/USD off to a steady start - around 0.6815/20 after falling 1.25% Friday

  • Rising fears of global recession hit AUD/USD and AUD/JPY particularly hard

  • AUD/USD low was 0.6764 - with support @ 50% of pandemic low/high @ 0.6758

  • AUD/USD trending lower with 5, 10 & 21-day MAs in a bearish alignment

  • Resistance @ the 10-day MA @ 0.6898 and break would ease downward pressure

  • RBA meets tomorrow and is expected to hike 50 BPs to 1.35% nL4N2YF0GT

  • Market pricing in 50 BPs so any support from hike likely to be fleeting

  • Focus remains on global growth outlook and impact on metals

  • For more click on FXBUZ









Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jul 01 - 04:06 PM

Repeat with no changes

  • IMM net spec USD long cut in Jun 22-28 period; $IDX +0.16% nL1N2YI1UE

  • EUR$ -0.15% in period, specs +5,009 contracts into dip now -10,596

  • $JPY -0.37% in period specs +5,884 contracts short cut to 52,570

  • GBP$ -0.74%, short reduced by 10,129 contract to -53,118

  • AUD specs sell into dip now short 42,980; CAD specs +4,992 as $CAD -0.3%

  • BTC dipped 2.8% in period, specs add 39 contracts long grows to 1,085

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jul 01 - 01:35 PM
  • GBP$ off NorAm lows, still -1.2% at 1.2039 into cls; Fri range 1.2173-1.1976

  • Risks remain to downside amid low rate, glbl recession and EU-UK trade angst

  • Even 75% odds BOEWATCH for +50bp at Aug 4 MPC meet unable to support GBP

  • GBP$ dips below 1.20 as traders dial back hawkish moves in 2023 nL1N2YI102

  • Focus shifts to belly of Sonia strip, rate cuts exp'd in Q2 2023 0#SON3:

  • Supt at lwr 30-d Bolli by 1.1986, Fri low 1.1976, 2022 low 1.1934

  • Res Fri's daily pivot at 1.2154, then 50% Fib of 1.2405-1.1934 at 1.2191

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 01 - 02:00 PM

MUFG Research sees a scope for further USD strength into the Summer. 

"Our scenario is shown clearly in our forecast profile. Tighter financial conditions in Q3 mean further US dollar strength is likely but the start of a pause before the scope for some monetary easing in summer 2023 means the trend of US dollar appreciation should turn before the end of this year and become clearer in 2023," MUFG notes.

"A breach of parity in EUR/USD is now a credible risk over the short-term as financial market conditions remain unfavourable," MUFG adds. 

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jul 01 - 11:45 AM

AUD/USD fell to a 2-year low amid burgeoning concerns over slower global economic growth, and the pair is vulnerable to a much deeper decline, if a key impediment gives way.

The Australian dollar fell broadly Friday despite China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI expanding at its fastest pace in 13 months nZUN0054F6.

Investors remain concerned major central banks, such as the ECB and Fed, may be over-reacting to rising inflation which could severely hinder growth prospects.

With this, a flight to safety helped drive the Australian dollar down, while the U.S. dollar and yen both rallied.
Emerging market and high beta currencies took significant hits versus the greenback and USD/CNH rallied back above 6.7100.
Global bond yields US10YT=RR, AU3YT=RR are sliding, which is reinforcing the preference for safe assets.

AUD/USD fell below 0.6765 and has only managed a meager bounce.
In fact, the pair now threatens to break the 50% Fibo of the March 2020-February 2021 0.5510-0.8007 rally.

Daily and monthly RSIs are falling, and have yet to reach oversold levels, which suggests downside momentum remains intact and a break of the Fibo is likely.

If this occurs, shorts can target the June 2020 low at 0.6648 and the 61.8% Fibo of 0.5510-0.8007.

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 01 - 11:00 AM
Societe Generale Research warns of a scope for thin July market conditions to provide another USD surge through the Summer.
 
"We didn’t start the fire, but we tried to fight it….Billy Joel’s song is a reminder to people who complain about what terrible times we live in, that stuff is forever happening. But John Authers reminds us this morning that the first half of 2022 has been the worst for stock markets since 1962, when the Beatles released ‘Love me do’, the Cuban missile crisis scared the world, and England and France agreed to develop Concorde," SocGen notes. 
 
"The CFTC data show positioning for the three G10 currencies with the most beta to risk sentiment (AUD, NZD and CAD) is only mildly short. Will thin July markets provide the ideal conditions for capitulation by those fighting the bearish mood in risk assets? If so, maybe this summer will see the dollar’s final surge," SocGen adds. 
Source:
Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jul 01 - 09:50 AM

The hits keep coming for GBP/USD.
Sterling has moved progressively lower from its Asia open high by 1.2172, to down 1.4% by 1.20 in early NorAm.
Friday's UK Mfg PMI nZRN004LXJ came in below forecast adding to the pound’s woes, as low rates and post-Brexit trade angst keep steady downward pressure on GBP/USD.

Despite GBPOIS BOEWATCH indicating an 80% chance for a 50bp hike at the Aug 4 BoE MPC meeting, an increase from recent +25bp moves, traders foci have shifted as global recession fears mount, from the front-end of the curve, where inflation-fighting resolve remains intact, to the belly of the curve, where 3-month Sonia futures indicate UK rates begin falling in H2 2023.

Global recession fears are not limited to the UK, and most developed economies are hinting at lower rates in 2023, but the problem for GBP/USD bulls is the peak in UK rates, at 2.86% in March 2023, remains well below the peak in U.S. rates, currently 3.64% in Dec 2022.
By comparison, the U.S.-UK rate nadir in 2025 indicates U.S. rates pricing 50bps higher.

Unless the Fed shifts its rate normalization tack to a significantly more dovish path, it is likely GBP/USD will test lower 30-d Bolli support by 1.1979 and 2022 lows by 1.1934 putting early Covid lows by 1.1413 in sharper focus.

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 01 - 09:45 AM

Danske Research sees a scope for buying the JPY strategically in H2.

"Following the decline in yields and oil prices JPY has finished the week of strongly with USD/JPY coming of the highest levels since 1998. Long JPY could ultimately prove an excellent buy in H2 but we do not like the timing just yet amid Bank of Japan utilising the global environment to finally spur some domestic inflation," Danske notes. 

"EUR/GBP remains rangy and we reiterate our recommendation to sell a 3M EUR/GBP straddle. Otherwise, heading into Q3 our preference remains that of long USD vs cyclically sensitive currencies including SEK," Danske adds. 

Source:
Danske Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 01 - 09:09 AM

Bank of America Global Research discusses the EUR outlook and maintains a bearish bias through the Summer.

"Sintra reinforced the message of a paradigm shift in inflation which will require further policy adjustments. But whilst 50bps has become the norm for many central banks, the ECB remains cautious as the Fed remains on the offensive. ECB President Lagarde's once again reiterated the ECB's preference for a 25bps rate hike on 21st July and since hitting the highs through mid-June, German 10yr yields are now 40bps lower. Of more relevance to EUR is the fact that European front-end yields are sharply lower versus G10 counterparts (weighted terms)," BofA notes. 

"As the market continues to pair back its expectations for the scale of ECB rate hikes this year, we think EUR is increasingly being left behind in the global rate hiking cycle. Much will obviously depend on the forthcoming Eurozone inflation print but we think that the path of least resistance remains for a weaker EUR through the summer," BofA adds.

Source:
BofA Global Research
By Christopher Romano  —  Jul 01 - 07:25 AM
  • China June Caixin PMI 51.7 nZUN0054F6, fastest mfg activity in 13-months

  • Despite the data investors remain worried about slower global growth

  • Yields AU3YT=RRUS10YT=RR, equities ESv1, commodities HGv1 drop

  • Safe-havens US$, yen bought; AUD/JPY near 91.75, USD/CNH near 6.7100

  • AUD/USD falls away from the 10-DMA, hits a 2-year low of 0.67905

  • Techs are bearish; daily, monthly RSIs falling, 10-DMA weighs

  • AUD/USD shorts now target the 50% Fib of the 0.5510-0.8007 rally

  • US June ISM manufacturing PMI USPMI=ECI is a data risk in NY

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Jul 01 - 05:40 AM
  • EUR/USD bounced 1.0381-1.0486 EBS last 24 hours while risk aversion rose

  • Traders were profitably short EUR/USD before the wobble

  • Natural to pare exposure when uncertainty mounts nL1N2YI0BK

  • Profitable bets are normally re-established

  • EUR/USD bounce offers traders chance to reenter shorts at better levels

  • Trend is down, fundamentals weighing and USD safer and more liquid than EUR

  • Bonds could attract and eurozone does not have common bond

  • In risk averse times dollar is more likely to attract than euro nL1N2YH0U5

  • Daily cloud 1.0599-1.0767 and 21/55-DMAs 1.045-94 should cap EUR/USD



Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jul 01 - 05:35 AM
  • Another leg lower and price eyes a 76.4% Fibo off 1.1934-1.2405 at 1.2045

  • Sub-1.20 levels calling as momentum holds negative and RSI finally confirms

  • Run back above converged 21-30 DMAs, 1.2275, needed to trigger a squeeze

  • Weekly bear trend strengthened by a potential key week

  • Usually a reversal signal but can also add confirmation to a trend

    For more click on FXBUZ















Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jul 01 - 03:35 AM
  • EUR/USD bulls have fought back, leaving a long tail on Thur's candlestick

  • That is usually a sign that the downside has been rejected

  • Outlook is in the balance, however, while market is below Wed's 1.0535 high

  • We are looking to get long on near-term dips to 1.0425

  • Expect good support at Thur's 1.0381 (EBS) low, but below would be negative

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous EUR/USD update nL1N2YH0C1

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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