• Speculators are short euro $20 equivalent

• Traders also long yen $8billion equivalent

• EUR/JPY dived in wake US/JP intervention

• Cross fell 187.43 on Jul 30 to 175.09 Oct 30

• Nov high at 178.34 - exceeds 178.00 23.6% target

• Target for bigger correction (38.2%) is 179.81

• It may be wise to hedge the risk of a EUR/USD rally

•
EURJPY

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• US-listed shares of gold miners rise premarket, with spot gold rising 3%

• Spot gold up 3.02% at $4,46.90/oz, bolstered by a weaker US dollar after Democrats seized control of both the Senate and House in US midterm elections [GOL/]

• Top miners Barrick and Newmont each climb over 5%

• Agnico Eagle Mines and Kinross Gold up 5% and 6.8% respectively

• Dollar hits a one-month low as Democrats scored a decisive win in the US midterm elections, fuelling fears the Democratic sweep could disrupt the data-centre buildout that has powered the AI trade and hurt tech spending

• "Gold celebrated the Democrats' victory...the retreat in the dollar and Treasury yields, the reduced Fed hike bets, and the risk aversion on Wall Street, increased gold's appeal" - Charalampos Pissouros, senior market analyst at XM

• Spot gold down 6.3% so far this year

(Reporting by Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD climbs to 0.7002 as stock rebound lifts risk-sensitive AUD

• Nasdaq futures turn positive, having been down 2.3% at 0437 GMT

• Nikkei ended down 1.4%, having been down 4.8% at one stage

• 0.6955 was two-week low for AUD/USD in Asia, amid risk aversion

• Tuesday high was 0.7003 - before AUD fell on dovish hike from RBA

• Democrats seize Congress in sweeping midterm repudiation of Trump

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• There was a lot of uncertainty before election, more after

• Stocks wobbling, bonds previously sold to extremes

• Several emerging market currencies under great stress

• Traders turned to the dollar and established many longs

• Risk of policy gridlock set to undermine USD

• Flows out of USD may head to gold, up $160/oz this week

• 200-WMA at $3882 is key support, foundation for rally

•
Gold

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Democrats win majorities in both Senate, House in stunning sweep

• EUR/USD rises to a more than two-week high at 1.1262

• Traders were running heavily short of euros ahead election

• $20billion short was bigger bearish wager since 2015

• Uncertainty stemming election shock encouraging profit taking

• Stops likely over Oct 16 high at 1.1269 and Oct 6 peak at 1.1276

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable rises to 1.3474 as dollar weakens on blue wave in US

• Democrats seize Congress in sweeping midterm repudiation of Trump

• 1.3474 is highest level since Sept 16 (1.3493 was high that day)

• UST yields lower. 1.3197-1.3232 was GBP/USD range on Tuesday

• UK Oct final services PMI due at 0930 GMT; 53.1 forecast

• BoE is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 bps to 4% on Thursday

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1500 GMT on Wednesday 4 November

• EUR/USD: 1.1000 (533M), 1.1025 (691M), 1.1050 (750M), 1.1075 (504M)

• 1.1090-00 (3.5BLN), 1.1125-30 (870M), 1.1150-55 (421M), 1.1190-00 (1.71BLN)

• 1.1225 (1.1BLN), 1.1250-60 (2.02BLN), 1.1265-75 (1.61BLN)

• 1.1280-85 (315M), 1.1290-00 (1.2BLN), 1.1320-25 (394M), 1.1400-10 (4.0BLN)

• USD/JPY: 157.20-25 (1.2BLN), 157.50-55 (318M), 157.90-00 (383M)

• 158.10-20 (426M), 158.50 (700M), 159.00 (2.5BLN)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Wed; Democrats ascendant in U.S. midterm elections, DXY -0.5%

• Nasdaq futures down 1.8% on fears Democratic control may pressure AI trade

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking at ANU Canberra Thur

• Futures pricing implies 92.5% probability RBA will stand pat on OCR in Dec

• Trump touts progress as Iran indicates ongoing chasm between two sides

• AUD remains clear below 0.6993 21-DMA, break back above may flip sentiment

• Range Asia 0.69611-805 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA


DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Presumed Japanese exporter and other sales sending USD/JPY lower

• From an early high of 158.72, USD/JPY off to 158.03 EBS, 158 break soon?

• US midterm elections going the Democrat way so far, seen bad for stocks

• JPY haven demand? Recent USD longs getting out?

• USD/JPY maybe heading for rendezvous with 100-HMA at 157.85

• Hourly Ichimoku cloud below between 157.48-76, 200-HMA 157.62 in cloud
USD/JPY hourly:


E-Minis Index:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Felix Gold plunge as much as 17.9% to A$0.115, their lowest point since April 7, 2025

• Stock logs largest intraday pct loss since January 30

• Gold discovery co to raise A$7.25 million($5.05 million)via placement at A$0.12 per share

• Placement price represents a discount of 14.3% to co's last close

• Co also launches share purchase plan of A$1 million at the same price as the placement

• YTD, stock down 66.2%

($1 = 1.4353 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Tejas Harish in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD flat Wed as markets wait for U.S. midterm election results

• AU household spending: Sep +0.6% m/m (prior +0%), Q3 +0.7% q/q (prior +0.7%)

• Trump talks-up progress as Iran indicates ongoing chasm between two sides

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking at ANU Canberra Thur

• Futures pricing implies 94.4% probability RBA will stand pat on OCR in Dec

• AUD breaks clear below 0.6993 21-DMA, bearish sentiment set to extend

• Range Asia 0.69611-735 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY holding relatively bid after push up to 158.76 EBS yesterday

• Asia so far 158.45-72 awaiting full results of US midterm elections

• US yields up after strong data, Wall Street mixed, crude oil off a bit

• USD/JPY holding at/just above top of 157.04-158.44 daily Ichimoku cloud

• In area of 200-DMA at 158.62, 100-DMA above at 159.16

• Greater chance of Japanese FX intervention eyed 159.00+, towards 160.00

• Some chunky option expiries nearby today, starts with $2.5 bln at 159.00

• Between 157.90-158.20 total $935 mln, between 158.50-70 $927 mln

• JGB-US rate differential still narrow, 2s @271 bps, 10s @215 bps

• Related comments , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On US data , , on US midterms
USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ING research reviews the November RBA decision and discusses AUD outlook. 

"The Aussie dollar came under pressure this morning after the RBA hiked rates as expected to 4.85%, but delivered some dovish signals. First, the 6-3 split suggests lower conviction around today’s decision than in markets, which had almost fully priced in a hike (21bp). Second, the statement dropped its reference to potential further hikes for the first time since June. Third, the economic outlook was revised sharply to the downside, with a focus on falling house prices weighing on consumers and upside risks to unemployment," ING notes.

"Despite today’s correction, we remain positive on AUD, which offers the best short-term carry in G10, including on a volatility- adjusted basis. Markets price only a one-in-three chance of another hike at the coming meetings and already embed 13bp of easing by the end of 2027, leaving AUD with limited risk of further dovish repricing for now. The current environment remains a bit challenging for AUD amid AI-related jitters, but we remain confident that our 0.710 AUD/USD target can be reached by year-end," ING adds.

• NZD/USD -0.8% from Tue 0.56315 high as jobs data undershoots expectations

• NZ Q3 HLFS unemployment 5.7% (poll 5.5%), job growth -0.1% (poll +0.4%)

• Futures pricing currently implies 78.2% probability of Dec 9 RBNZ hike

• Wed's U.S. midterm elections set to determine control of Congress

• U.S. & Iran remain far apart on potential peace deal as hostilities continue

• NZ's major parties (National & Labour) neck-and-neck in pre-election polls

• NZD looks set to challenge Oct 14 0.5566 low as downswing accelerates

• Range NZ 0.5584-0.56205, support 0.5566 0.5485, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.5% from Tue 0.70035 high, market focus on U.S. midterm elections

• RBA to remain reactive to data in wake of Tue's widely expected hike

• AU Sep and Q3 household spending due 0030 GMT (prior +0.0% m/m, +0.7% q/q)

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking at ANU Canberra Thur

• U.S. & Iran remain far apart on potential peace deal as hostilities continue

• AUD finding support near 0.6966 52-WMA, clean break would invigorate bears

• Overnight range 0.6962-97 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP$ a touch firmer in NY afternoon trade, +0.13% at 1.3423; NorAm range 1.3432-1.3406

• Range slight pre-US elex results; lower oil, gilts keep pace w/UST yield rise GBP-friendly

• For now, GBP bulls wary of further rise above Monday's 6-wk high by 1.3447

• Thursday expected BoE 25bp hike keeping cable anchored near trend highs

• GBP$ res 1.3439/47 daily cloud top/ Mon high, 1.3493 Sept 16 high, 1.3566 daily high Sept 9

• Supt 1.3397 Tuesday low, 1.3367 daily cloud base, 1.3316 rising 21-DMA

GBP Chart:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole discusses the potential impact of US midterm elections on the USD.

"In a recent focus piece, we analysed the USD performance after US elections since 1976 and concluded that the FX market impact depended on whether Democrats controlled the House only, or the Senate as well. In the case of the former, the USD rebounded strongly while it sold off in the case of the latter," CACIB notes.

"Assessing the FX impact from the midterms is also complicated by two conflicting USD drivers that could play out sequentially in the coming weeks and months. In the immediate aftermath of the vote, investors will focus on any indication that the Trump administration could re-escalate the conflict in Iran and thus boost the appeal of the high-yielding, safe-haven King USD across the board. The initial USD positive impact need not last, however, if we end up with another TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) situation. We further think that the persistent softness of technology stocks should continue to undermine the attractiveness of the safe-haven USD...All this makes us bearish on the USD in the next 6-12M," CACIB adds.

USD/JPY bears may need to tread carefully.

The dollar remains supported by Middle East and Ukraine tensions and a resilient US economy, with Redbook retail sales up 10.2% y/y and September job openings rising to a stronger-than-expected 7.523 million in September.

The greenback may also be drawing support from funding-market dynamics, with SOFR volumes at their highest since June ahead of Wednesday's Treasury refunding announcement and Friday's payrolls report.

Against this backdrop, USD/JPY remains constructive, having regained its 21-DMA at 157.95 and the key 158.00 level, where more than $3 billion of options expire Friday. The pair has also broken above the 156.91-158.44 Ichimoku cloud, shifting focus to resistance at the 200-DMA near 158.60, the upper Bollinger around 158.90, the Sept. 24 high at 159.03 and 100-DMA at 159.18. A move through those levels could spur short covering.

However, options markets still favor yen calls, suggesting upside momentum may remain limited as investors stay wary of potential Japanese intervention, additional BOJ tightening and renewed equity-market volatility. With the VIX holding above 21% despite S&P 500 gains on Tuesday, risk sentiment remains fragile ahead of US midterm election results and the close of earnings season.

For USD/JPY bears to regain control, the pair would need to fall back below its 21-DMA and decisively break under the cloud base near 156.90.
Yen

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

MUFG discusses GBP outlook and targets GBP/USD at 1.3300, and EUR/GBP at 0.8400 by year-end.

"We have not changed our view for the pound to strengthen modestly versus the dollar and weaken modestly versus the euro," MUFG notes.

"The macro backdrop showing resilience has helped provide support for the pound but higher rates and energy prices could see that resilience questioned. The BoE is unlikely to meet current market pricing resulting in pound underperformance, albeit more versus non-dollar currencies," MUFG adds.

• USD/CAD looks to have found a short-term floor at the 100-week MA (1.3948)

• After a 3-week drop from 1.4300 to 1.3950, it is natural for a bout of consolidation

• Upcoming event risk from US midterms to US/CA jobs data keeps conviction low

• This is also underscored by the tepid rebounds in the pair so far

• Last week's high at 1.4068 marks initial resistance and the 100-day MA at 1.4049

• Support zone at 1.3920-67, below here, opens up the 200-day MA at 1.3892
usdcad weekly

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Bank of America Global Research previews the October jobs report due on Friday.

"We expect payrolls to rise by an above-consensus 75k in Oct (private: 70k), up from 29k in Sep. Claims remain extremely benign, while the recent slowdown in weekly ADP and potentially unfavorable seasonals pose downside risks," BofA notes.

"We expect the u-rate to remain at 4.2%, as the LFPR falls a tenth and HH employment gains moderate after two strong months. A larger drop in participation could push the u-rate to 4.1%. Overall, the labor market remains stable, with job growth above breakeven and the u-rate flat/down," BofA adds.

JP Morgan Research previews the November BoE meeting on Thursday.

"BoE (Thu Nov 5; JPM: +25bp) Widely expected and priced by markets to hike Bank Rate 25bps at Thursday’s meeting and there are additional hawkish risks for GBP in our view, coming from the guidance. Our economist expects a 7-2 vote for a hike. Labour market data stand out to us as the recent surprise 4.7% unemployment rate print contrasts with BoE forecasts showing a move up towards 5.3% next year," JPM notes.

"A key dovish MPC argument has been that labour market slack can contain inflation but this appears to be shifting. Inflation and growth are also tracking above forecast (3.5% y/y vs 3% and 1.4% y/y vs 1% respectively). We expect some form of guidance from BoE that more tightening is likely needed beyond this rate hike, which presents bullish risks for GBP, although the curve is already reasonably well priced with around 100bps of tightening by mid-27," JPM adds.

• AUD/USD hit 0.7004 overnight, sellers emerged and the pair then turned lower

• RBA hiked but decision was split, investors expect RBA to pause in Dec.

• PBOC hiked the FX deposit reserve ratio which sent USD/CNH sharply upward

• US dollar, US yields rallied while gold, silver, copper, stocks fell

• Those influences drove AUD/USD down to 0.6962, an 11-session low

• NY opened near 0.6980, AUD/UDS traded down -0.26% in early action

• Techs lean bearish now; RSIs falling, pair holds below the 10- & 21-DMAs

• US Sep. factory orders, JOLTS & mid-term elections are key risks Tuesday
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY has edged higher from 157.76-158.20, on Tuesday, according to EBS data

• Spot steady as traders brace for start of voting in US midterms

• USD/JPY remains stuck within the daily cloud that currently spans 156.91-158.44

• A break above the cloud top would be quite a bullish technical sign

• Note EUR/JPY usually rises in November; chart hints at repeat

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)