• AUD/USD +0.7% from Mon 0.6668 low as broad USD index goes into decline

• Trump's EU/Greenland tariff threat reviving 'sell U.S.' sentiment

• Significant safe haven flows into in gold (+1.7%) & CHF (+0.6% against USD)

• Liquidity impacted by U.S. holiday, AUD upswing looks set to extend Tue

• AU Dec employment data due Thur, Reuters poll: +30k jobs, 4.4% unemployment

• U.S. Q3 GDP (poll +4.3%) & Nov core PCE due Fri (poll +0.2% m/m)

• Overnight range 0.6689-0.6717, support 0.6660 0.6590, resistance 0.6766
AUD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Cable hits 1.3427 after extending north from 1.3321 (one-month low in Asia)

• 1.3427 is the highest level since Thursday (1.3367-1.3412 was Friday range)

• Trump's Europe tariff threat over Greenland revives talk of 'Sell America' trade

• GBP/USD resistance levels include 1.3445 (Thursday high) and 1.35

• UK jobs data is due on Tuesday at 0700 GMT, before BoE chief Bailey speaks

• U.S. Supreme Court might issue a ruling on Trump's tariffs as early as Tuesday

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/CHF holds below 0.93 following its Asian session fall to 0.9270 EBS low

• 0.9270 is the lowest level since Nov 19 (0.9255 was EBS low that day)

• Drop to 0.9270 spurred by demand for safe-haven franc, courtesy of Trump

• Trump vows tariffs on eight European countries over Greenland

• 0.9350 was four-week EBS high for EUR/CHF last week (Jan 14)

EURCHF


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 30 pip range since the London open; 1.3385-1.3415

• 1.3415 is three pips beyond Friday's high. 1.3321 was one-month low in Asia

• Asian session low was plumbed following Trump's tariff vow on Saturday

• UK PM calls for "calm discussion" to avert trade war with U.S. over Greenland

• U.S. Supreme Court to hear Trump's case against Fed Governor Cook this week

• CFTC data: net GBP short shrank for seventh week in a row in week to Jan 13

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Gold bugs view it as superior money and a reliable store of value

• They often prefer holding physical gold over financial assets

• Gold which is seen safe has risen almost $2000/oz during the trade war

• Despite Its rise to a record high at $4689/oz gold is far from an overcrowded bet

• There are fewer longs now than there were at outset of the trade war

• The next target is $4807 but $5728 target achievable while few invested

• India's proposal could spell more trouble for its currency - boost gold

•
Gold targets


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Jan 19 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes may bolster any nearby support and resistance levels, and potentially have a magnetic effect on FX price action towards each day's 10 a.m. New York (15.00 GMT) cut expiry.

It is therefore advantageous to know in advance where the larger strikes lie.

expiry strike size (eur)

date

January 19 1.15 5.9 bln

1.1505 329 mln

1.1575 568 mln

1.1585 2.5 bln

1.16 405 mln

1.1605 240 mln

1.161 466 mln

1.1615 1.4 bln

1.1675 883 mln

1.169 220 mln

1.171 249 mln

1.173 1.0 bln

1.1755 277 mln

1.1775 290 mln

January 20 1.15 286 mln

1.151 334 mln

1.154 547 mln

1.1545 464 mln

1.1555 510 mln

1.16 825 mln

1.1615 420 mln

1.165 1.1 bln

1.17 206 mln

1.171 392 mln

1.1715 1.2 bln

1.172 301 mln

1.1725 730 mln

1.1745 355 mln

1.175 938 mln

1.18 241 mln

January 21 1.152 226 mln

1.155 726 mln

1.1555 300 mln

1.1575 260 mln

1.16 567 mln

1.161 300 mln

1.165 296 mln

1.167 253 mln

1.1675 532 mln

1.169 896 mln

1.1695 818 mln

1.1705 268 mln

1.173 440 mln

1.18 371 mln

January 22 1.15 330 mln

1.1505 804 mln

1.154 620 mln

1.1545 239 mln

1.155 1.8 bln

1.157 273 mln

1.1575 948 mln

1.158 269 mln

1.16 3.4 bln

1.1605 1.0 bln

1.163 702 mln

1.164 593 mln

1.1655 288 mln

1.167 222 mln

1.1675 567 mln

1.17 2.6 bln

1.1725 389 mln

1.176 557 mln

1.178 215 mln

1.18 1.3 bln

January 23 1.154 300 mln

1.155 767 mln

1.1575 652 mln

1.165 1.7 bln

1.166 1.2 bln

1.1665 526 mln

1.167 317 mln

1.168 258 mln

1.17 1.4 bln

1.18 263 mln

Continued option trading can increase the size of current strikes and add new ones, so be sure to check the daily FX option expiry updates that are posted around 7 a.m. London time on .(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• 0.6701 is high water-mark for AUD/USD since its early Asia dip to 0.6668

• Dip followed Trump's vow to tariff eight European nations over Greenland

• 0.6671 was Friday low, after USD strengthened on Trump's Hassett guidance

• There are large 0.6685-95 option expiries for the 10am ET NY cut

• Yuan's climb to 32-month peak vs USD is positive for the Australian dollar

• The Australian dollar is often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD option implied volatility has been languishing near multi-year lows of late

• That's justified by a lack of actual/realised volatility within very familiar ranges

• Risk reversal contracts lose topside strike premium - now neutral on direction

• However, the dip below 1.1600 prompted some vol and downside strike demand on Monday

• Options market said to be short downside strikes so a deeper spot drop could have consequences

• If market short downside gamma, a spot fall could accelerate and boost related volatility

• FX options wrap - Calm on the screens, nerves under the surface
EUR/USD FXO implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD dropped to 1.1572 below the 200-DMA at 1.1590

• The pair swiftly rebounded to 1.1641 EBS

• Drop from 1.1808 on Dec 24 has been fuelled by long liquidation

• Net euro long was cut by $4.5 billion by Jan 13 (1.1618 low)

• Highly likely that the net long has been pared further

• Risk now that recently established shorts could be squeezed

• Close in relation to 200-DMA key - last close below was March 2025

• There has been a big shift in favour of the USD

•
EURUSD and the 200-DMA


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's OzAurum Resources rise 8.6% to A$0.063, their highest since Jan 5

• Gold explorer says it secured the Heap Leach Agglomeration Process Plant for development of the Stage 1 Mulgabbie North Gold Project in Western Australia

• Around 1.6 mln shares change hands, nearly 4x 30-day average

• OZM up 23.5% YTD
(Reporting by Keshav Singh Chundawat in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Mon on mixed CN data & escalating geopolitical turmoil

• CN Q4 GDP +1.2% q/q (poll 1.0%), Dec industrial output +5.2% y/y (poll 5.0%)

• CN Dec urban investment -3.8% (poll -3.0%), well below forecasts

• AUD struggles for direction pre-U.S. holiday, 0.6660 remains pivotal

• Trump announces new tariffs, wants EU nations to support Greenland takeover

• EU states united in criticism, considering coordinated response

• AU Dec employment data due Thur, Reuters poll: +30k jobs, 4.4% unemployment

• U.S. Q3 GDP (poll +4.3%) & Nov core PCE due Fri (poll +0.2% m/m)

• Range Asia 0.6668-95, support 0.6660 0.6590, resistance 0.6766 0.69435
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD off very early Asia to 1.3321 before popping on some demand

• Trump punishing countries against US attempts to take over Greenland

• But GBP preferred to some extent over USD, EUR despite tariffs on UK too

• GBP/USD upside limited to 1.3408 as some who bought earlier booked profits

• Downside since limited to 1.3384 so far however but trend maybe down

• Cable steadily ratcheting lower after push up to 1.3567 on January 6

• 1.3393-1.3413 hourly Ichimoku cloud resistance topside, 100-HMA 1.3421 above

• GBP/JPY also up from 210.36 very early Asia to 211.34 before some steadying

• That said, cross trend maybe down too after push up to 214.27 January 13

• High January 13 best since 215.89 in July 2008

• EUR/GBP off to 0.8649 early before bounce to 0.8680, still on heavy side

• Key support 200-DMA at 0.8644, resistance from area of 200-HMA at 0.8678

• Related comment , also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

GBP/USD daily:


GBP/USD hourly:


GBP/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Catalyst Metals gains 5.44% to record high of A$9.49

• Stock among top movers on gold stocks sub-index , which is at record high, and broader market , which is down 0.5%

• Gold miner reports further drill results from Plutonic Gold Belt in Western Australia, confirming high-grade gold zone after earlier 2025 work flagged deeper high-grade potential

• CYL soared 185.3% in 2025, handily beating AXGD's 123.5% rise and AXJO's 6.8% gain

(Reporting by Kumar Tanishk in Bengaluru)

((; X: @thatstanishk Click here))

• USD heavy across board on news on Greenland, tariffs on European countries

• USD/JPY off too as players seek alternatives to USD, EUR, Asia 157.50-96 EBS

• Retracing recent move up to 159.45, back below 157.87 daily Ichimoku tenkan

• Also below 157.89 200-HMA, towards daily kijun at 156.92

• More downside not ruled out on fresh news but Tokyo fix demand likely high

• Japanese importers likely back in in force on USD move lower

• Option expiries today between 155.90-157.00, at 157.00, between 158.00-05

• More large expiries above between 158.75-85, massive between 159.00-25

• JGB-US Treasury rate diffs still in narrowing trend despite US yield pop

• As of January 13, IMM CTA net short JPY 45,164 contracts, 8815 longs Jan 6

• Trading today likely on thin side on US Martin Luther Kind day holiday

• Related comments , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Greenland/tariffs , ,

• On IMM CTAs , on US data/economy ,

• On Fed , [nL6N3YF0QS, for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


JGB-US Treasury 10-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Updates)

• Shares of Reliance Worldwide Corporation fall as much as 8.2% to A$3.720, their lowest level since December 22

• Stock logs its biggest intraday pct loss since August 19

• Citi downgrades Australian plumbing services provider rating to "neutral" from "buy"

• Brokerage says rising copper costs could trigger up to A$8 million ($5.33 million) headwind to co's 2HFY26 earnings

• Estimate for RWC earnings shows about 4% decrease for FY26 and 10% for FY27

• "RWC is a well-managed business, however we're unsure this copper spike is within company controllables," says Citi

• Cuts target price from A$5 to A$4.25 apiece

• Eight of 15 analysts rate the stock "buy" or higher, others "hold"; their median PT is A$4.7, according to LSEG-compiled data

• Stock fell 23.1% in 2025

($1 = 1.4999 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid & Rajasik Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Edmund Klamann)

• NZD/USD -0.2% Mon, risk assets impacted by U.S./Greenland situation

• Trump hit 8-European countries with 10% tariffs, increasing to 25% Jun 1

• EU states united in condemnation, considering coordinated response

• NZ Dec electronic card retail sales due Thur, Q4 CPI Fri (poll +0.5% q/q)

• NZD remains stuck in post-Dec 24 downtrend, but supported near 0.5731 55-DMA

• Range NZ 0.57385-45, support 0.5730 0.5580 0.5485, resistance 0.5855-65
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD -0.15% Mon as U.S. gets aggressive on Greenland 'purchase'

• Trump hit 8-European countries with 10% tariffs, increasing to 25% Jun 1

• EU says suspended retaliatory tariffs will come into effect from Feb 6

• EU diplomats also saying no plans for countermeasures on Greenland for now.

• U.S. Dec industrial production +0.4% m/m, beating poll expectations of +0.1%

• EUR looks likely to extend post-Christmas rout, next target 1.1490

• EU Dec consumer price data (HICP) due Mon (poll +0.2% m/m, +2.0% y/y)

• Range Asia 1.1572-95, support 1.1490 1.1470, resistance 1.1820 1.19185
EUR Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NY opened near 1.1620 after EUR/USD drifted upward in a tight range overnight

• Rally extened to 1.1627 in early NY as stocks , US$, USD/CNH traded down

• Sellers emerged after comments from Pres. Trump regarding Kevin Hasset

• After the remarks yields , US$ rallied & spreads

widened

• EUR/USD fell below the 200-DMA, hit 1.1584, it neared 1.1595 late, down -0.12%

• Falling RSIs, hold below 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs and daily cloud give techs a bear lean
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP$ near session low in NY afternoon, -0.05% at 1.3380; Fri range 1.3412-1.3379

• Pair under pressure amid more upbeat U.S. data; IP/CapU/Mfg o/p all rise, beat f/c

• Sterling unable to maintain above rising 200-DMA abv 1.34 after data, Trump Fed talk

• USD extended early gain after Pres Trump said he may keep Hassett in current role

• LSEG's IRPR had dipped to -40bp of Fed cuts by Dec meet, now back at -45bp

• Most likely contender for Fed chair is now Kevin Warsh, also wants fast/deep rate cuts

• GBP$ supt at 1.3367/66 Fri low/100-DMA, 1.3303 50% Fib of 1.3039-1.3567

• Res 1.3404 rising 200-DMA, 1.3412 Fri high, 1.3444 falling 10-DMA capped since Jan 7

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Bank of America Global Research highlights the USD periodic strength and weakness in Q1

"USD indices: Q1 has offered some support for dollar indices, but without strong quarterly hit ratios. DXY, BBDXY tended to pop in late February, drop in early March," BofA notes.

"G10: Q1 modestly has favored higher USDSEK and USDCAD. USD tended to be stronger in weeks 7-8 but weaker in 9-10 especially vs Euro," BofA adds

• NY opened near 0.6705 after AUD/USD rallied 0.6696-0.6710 overnight

• The pair started falling early NY as equities , gold , silver sank

• Selling intensified after Trump's comments on Hasset rallied US$, yields

• USD/CNH rallied to 6.9702 & gold, silver added to losses; AUD/USD fell to 0.6671

• The pair bounced slightly, sat near 0.6680, traded down -0.26% late in the session

• Monthly gravestone doji, head & shoulders top on daily chart give techs a bearish lean
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research highlight AUD outperformance this year.

"The Australian dollar is the top performing G10 currency so far this year and in fact is the only G10 currency that has managed to advance versus the US dollar," MUFG notes.

"RBA communications in December from Governor Bullock and in January from Deputy Governor Hauser indicated the RBA sees the next move more likely being a hike rather than a cut...

The performance of CNY is also helping provide support for AUD. CNY is in fact the second best performing Asian currency year-to-date with only the Thai baht modestly outperforming," MUFG adds.

• Recent NZ survey data points to early signs of an economic rebound

• Legacy NZD shorts are beginning to look increasingly stale

• Net positioning sits at 2.5bln short - rare to see much extension from these levels

• With that, risk is tilting towards a short squeeze if upcoming data surprises on the topside

• Preferred expressions for a NZD recovery are likely through EUR, GBP and CAD

• Next week's CPI print (Jan 22) could be the catalyst to spark a rebound
NZD POSIITONING


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

RBC updates its EUR/USD forecast profile now and now expecting the currency to appreciate 3% in 2026 to 1.20 and 3.0% in 2027 to 1.24

"There are three main arguments for EUR/USD higher in 2026 & 27: (1) As the cost of carry compresses between the countries, hedges on US assets will rise. (2) There is an ongoing expectation of an asset rotation from US-toEurope. (3) Stronger European growth in 2026," RBC notes.