• GBP$ soft in NY afternoon trade, -0.3% at 1.3360; Monday range 1.3411-1.3358

• Mideast tensions, US reinstates blockade of Iran in Hormuz boosted USD broadly

• Despite several forays above 1.34, bulls unable to hold above; supt eyed by 10-DMA 1.3355

• Oil +6%, adds to angst over persistent global inflation; gilt yields rise ups fiscal concerns

• Tuesday events: US CPI, Warsh Hse testimony & UK FinMin Reeves mansion House speech

• GBP$ supt 1.3358/55 Mon low/10DMA, 1.3323 daily low Jul 8, 1.3296- 50% of 1.3140-1.3452

• Res 1.3409/11 daily cloud base/Mon high, 1.3452 Jul 10 daily high, 1.3498 upper 30-d Bolli

Sterling Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1435 after EUR/USD traded 1.1385-1.1446 in Asia & Europe

• The pair began falling in early NY as the USD & US yields

gained

• EUR/USD's drop then intensified as risk soured; gold, silver, equities sank

• USD/CNH's rally into positive territory and persistent USD bid weighed on EUR/USD

• Comments from Pres. Trump on the Strait of Hormuz kept risk-off in place

• EUR/USD hit 1.1383 during comments from the Fed's Waller

• The pair held near 1.1385 late, it traded down -0.21% in NY's afternoon

• Techs lean bearish; RSIs are falling, pair below 10- & 21-DMA, daily inverted hammer formed
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research expects Gold prices to find a floor in the near-term.

"Gold resumed its decline as renewed Middle East tensions revived inflation concerns. Any rebound in energy prices could reinforce expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, raising the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Swap markets are now pricing more than a 30% chance of a rate hike at the next Fed meeting, up from around 20% last week. Investor appetite is subdued, with gold-backed ETF holdings seeing further liquidation," ANZ notes.

"Structurally, Asia continues is emerging as the new centre for gold investment demand. Hong Kong’s trial launch of a central gold clearing and settlement system this week, alongside closer connectivity with the Shanghai Gold Exchange, should deepen regional market infrastructure and improve access for institutional investors. Together with Singapore’s growing role as a bullion hub, this reinforces the shift of gold trading and demand from West to East, providing structural support for regional gold consumption. We see gold imports in Hong Kong and China staying strong despite weak seasonal demand," ANZ adds.

(Adds chart)

• USD/CAD upside momentum stalled ahead of 1.4250, now rotating lower to test range support at 1.4140

• 1.4140 marks key near-term support, a break would signal scope for a broader corrective pullback

• Sustained downside through this level opens 1.4000, with deeper support layered at 1.3930–67

• Positioning remains stretched, with net USD/CAD longs at highs since Jan 2025 - historically a reversal signal

• USD/CAD net longs are at the highest since January 2025 and are at levels that shortly follow a reversal

• Into U.S. CPI, a softer print would heighten squeeze risk and amplify downside pressure
USDCAD positioning


USDCAD chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own) ((Email: ))

Bank of America Global Research summarizes the latest G10 FX flows patterns.

"USD demand vs CHF and CAD stands out post-June FOMC USD demand vs CHF and CAD has been the dominant post-June FOMC theme in G10 FX flows  Positioning risks are most evident in GBP, NZD, and CAD shorts, while JPY positioning remains short and EUR positioning light," BofA notes.

"We remain comfortable with our bullish bias on JPY, GBP and NZD. Although CHF remains our preferred funder, CHF shorts are becoming increasingly crowded. Within G4, we continue to favour tactical USD longs against the EUR," BofA adds.

Sterling looks set to grind higher in the near-term as unwinding of UK short positioning outweighs event risk.

Though GBP/USD softened slightly on Monday the pair remains anchored near trend highs by 1.34, as markets await Tuesday's U.S. CPI release for fresh clues on the Fed's near-term policy path. Also in focus is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, which will be parsed for any policy adjustments; yet given the new chair's reluctance to offer guidance outside of data releases, the appearance is unlikely to deliver any market-moving nuggets.

In the UK, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' annual Mansion House speech is set to attract considerable attention from market participants. These events may heighten volatility, yet the overall landscape for GBP/USD appears complex due to ongoing geopolitical tensions that have recently pushed oil prices higher, consequently elevating global inflation expectations.

Technically, the pound has reversed last week's rise into the daily cloud, currently spanning 1.3437-1.3409. With limited fresh data on UK growth and inflation, and a significantly more stable political backdrop, short positions in the pound are likely to continue unwinding, potentially pushing GBP/USD higher. Bulls will target the cloud top near 1.3437 and the July 10 high at 1.3452. However, a downside surprise in U.S. CPI, given the recent dip in oil prices, could see bulls take out late May highs just above 1.35 on the way to testing early May highs in the mid-1.3650s.
GBP Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research sees a scope for a bullish recovery in EUR/GBP.

'"We believe that the latest EUR/GBP correction is close to running out of steam and expect the cross to recover back towards 0.860 in coming months because: (1) EUR/GBP is starting to look very cheap relative to its short-term fair value that we estimate on the basis of EUR-GBP rate spread and measures of relative sovereign credit risks among other drivers; (2) there is a risk that the Labour party could adopt left-wing policies after this week's change of guard at the helm that could shatter the calm in the gilt markets and hurt the GBP; and (3) the current market BoE outlook is too hawkish and the GBP should continue to lose its rate advantage over the EUR, in our view," CACIB notes.

"Focus this week will be on the UK GDP data for May, due on Thursday," CACIB adds.

Goldman Sachs previews the US June CPI report due on Tuesday, July 14.

"We expect a 0.17% increase in June core CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.76% (vs. +2.9% consensus). We expect a 0.11% decline in headline CPI (vs. -0.1% consensus), reflecting lower energy prices. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.24% increase in core PCE in June, reflecting another large increase in its financial services component," GS notes.

"We expect monthly core CPI increases around 0.2% over the next couple of months, reflecting the continued slowdown in the shelter categories and the reversal of upward pressure from higher jet fuel prices and the World Cup on the travel services categories, though risks are tilted to the upside if disruptions to oil markets and associated oil price increases prove more persistent than expected," GS adds.

(Adds headline)

• AUD/USD spiked up to 0.6970 overnight, hit a 14-session high, sellers then emerged

• 0.6924 hit in Europe, NY opened near 0.6945, AUD/USD was down -0.06% in early action

• The pair fell despite broad-based USD selling and USD/CNH's drop to 6.7783

• Rising US yields , drops in gold, silver copper, equities weighed on AUD/USD

• Daily RSI diverged on tthe high & daily doji candle formed, are concerns for bulls

• AUD/USD's hold below 0.6980/90 and the 21-DMA are also worries for AUD/USD bulls
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Risk reversal options show any volatility risk premium for strikes in one direction versus the other

• 1-month 25 delta USD/JPY risk reversals paid 1.625 and 3-month at 0.8 JPY calls over puts on Monday

• For 1-month it's the highest downside over upside strike premium in 2-weeks - 1.75 is the 2 July peak since May

• 3-month expiry already a new high since May. Reflects recent spot setback and greater perceived risk of more losses

• Downside risk reversal skew suggests implied volatility should increase when USD/JPY falls

• Implied volatility currently subdued/heavy as spot consolidates last week's setback from 40 year high at 162.84

• Intervention fear has been keeping JPY call skew elevated over recent months, GPIF headlines added weight on Friday

• FX options poised for US CPI - but are they underpricing the risk to FX
USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversals


USD/JPY FX option implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY consolidating, spot pinned to 200-hour MA cluster around 162

• Lack of follow-through above 162.84 cycle high keeps topside momentum in check

• Downside still limited for now, 160.70 remains the key near-term pivot

• GPIF headlines a slow burn but incrementally JPY/JGB supportive - no allocation shift, focus within bands

• Geopolitics keeping oil firm as Iran tensions escalate, which is helping keep USD/JPY bid

• Overall conviction light into Tuesday’s US CPI

• Hot CPI seen reopening 162.84, break would target 163.50 next
USDJPY hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• AUD/USD fell to 0.6924 in Asia, as safe-haven USD rose on renewed Iran attacks

• 0.6924 is the lowest level since July 8 (0.6907 was the low that day)

• Friday's high was 0.6969 (in Asia). 0.6965 was NY session high Friday

• CFTC data: net AUD short rose to 24,651 contracts in week to July 7

• Third consecutive week in which the net AUD short position grew

• Net AUD position flipped to short in June (net long hit 13-year high in May)

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable holds sub-1.34 after safe-haven USD rises on renewed Middle East attacks

• 1.3368-1.3392 is Monday range-to-date. 1.3368 is the lowest level since July 8

• July 8 low was 1.3323, after dollar jumped on Iran guidance from Trump

• Friday range was 1.3392-1.3452 (1.3452 is the highest level since mid-June)

• CFTC data: net GBP short fell 14% to 87,903 contracts in week to July 7

• Net GBP short position hit nine-year high of 105,719 contracts in June

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD lower in response to latest Mid-East escalation and Iran closure of straight of Hormuz, higher oil price

• FX option implied volatility higher in response - 1-month 5.5 from 5.15 Friday (recent/2026 low 4.9)

• Tuesday's US CPI data adds a further layer of FX volatility risk. However, vol gains proving limited so limited

• EUR put over call vol premium via risk reversals reflects greater risk of EUR losses vs gains, but steady since last week

• EUR still in grip of huge 1.1400 strike expiries - another 1.1bln euros Mon, 2.6bln Tues and more Wed-Thurs

• EUR/USD danger zone remains at post 17 June Fed and 1-year lows at 1.1325 and 1.1300 option barriers
EUR/USD FX option strikes expiring July 13-17


EUR/USD FXO implied volatility


EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD down 0.35% in Asia as risk aversion reigns on U.S.- Iran escalation

• Opened at 0.6942 after closing at 0.6951 Fri, low of 0.6924 seen Monday

• U.S. crude up 4%, S&P 500 futures -0.45%, U.S. 2-year yield hits 16-mth high

• AUD/NZD -0.3% stays offered as RBA/RBNZ rate expectations re-priced

• AUD/JPY -0.1%; Japan to push GPIF to boost alternative investments

• US June inflation data, Fed Chair Warsh's Congress testimony key this week

• Resistance 0.6965-70, clear break opens 0.7000

• Support 0.6910-20, pivotal at 0.6878 200-day MA, daily close below bearish
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY looks to have found a new equilibrium around 162.00

• Asia so far today 161.67-162.17 EBS, GPIF news yen supportive

• That said, re-flaring of US-Iran hostilities USD supportive

• Technically, USD/JPY holding above daily Ichimoku kijun at 161.17

• Spot also back above 161.87-99 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• 200 and 100-HMAs in area at 162.01 and 162.12, respectively

• $2.4 161.00-75, $2.2 bln 162.00-30 option expiries today to contain spot?

• EUR/JPY heavy, 184.60-72 EBS, mostly in 184.61-99 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Essentially sideways since May 7 in 183.18 (June 24)-186.31 (June 16) range

• GBP/JPY 216.22-84, off more after rally to 218.00 Thursday

• Thursday high best for cross since 222.73 in January 2008

• Good support seen for now in area of ascending 200-HMA at 216.35

• CHF/JPY heavy, 199.54-200.20, support below at 198.53 ascending 200-DMA

• AUD/JPY sideways after rally to 112.80 July 6, Asia today 112.09-52

• Support from area of 200-HMA at 112.23

• NZD/JPY better bid, to 93.46 before easing back, low 92.99

• Follows rally to 93.57 Friday, still mostly in 93.03-85 daily Ichi cloud

• 100-DMA at 92.97 support for now, at top of 92.91-93.32 hourly cloud

• Related comments , , , also
USD/JPY hourly:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries this week:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD trading heavy in Asia on renewed US-Iran hostilities, crude oil rise

• Range so far 1.1385-1.1410 EBS, off after mini-rally to 1.1460 Friday

• Resistance seen good ahead of daily Ichimoku kijun at 1.1473

• Heavy also above hourly Ichimoku tenkan at 1.1401

• On option expiries today, total E1.4 bln on 1.13, supportive

• More above however, E3.7 bln on 1.14, E4.6 bln between 1.1500-60, to cap?

• EUR/JPY also heavy, 184.60-72 EBS, mostly in 184.61-99 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Essentially sideways since May 7 in 183.18 (June 24)-186.31 (June 16) range

• EUR/GBP 0.8517-19 following fall to 0.8509 Friday, matched low June 27, 2025

• EUR/CHF outlier, buoyant, near recent highs and 0.9228-32 EBS in Asia

• 0.9237 high July 8, 0.9226 peak on June 22

• Related comments , , , also
EUR/USD hourly:


EUR/USD nearby option expiries this week:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Australian gold miners fall as much as 2.4%, while the broader benchmark was down 0.5% as of 0210 GMT

• Bullion prices slid more than 1% in early Asian trade, as fears of the Strait of Hormuz closure drove oil prices sharply higher and revived expectations of elevated interest rates to combat inflationary pressures [GOL/]

• Shares of gold miners Northern Star Resources were down 2.6%, while St Barbara and Evolution Mining

lost 2.7% and 1.7%, respectively

• Sub-index has fallen 18.8% YTD

(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)

• Re-flaring of Middle East tensions a reason to remain long USD

• Japan MOF new tack, pressure on GPIF to buy Japan JPY supportive

• Seems USD/JPY back to stasis on these two opposing influences

• Equilibrium of sorts below YTD high of 162.84 on July 1

• 162.84 also 40-year high, highest since 163.36 in December 1986

• USD/JPY 161.67-162.07 EBS so far in Asia today

• New equilibrium around 162.00? Range Friday 161.28-162.43, inside day?

• Daily chart shows USD/JPY mostly above 161.66 Ichi tenkan, kijun 161.17

• Hourly chart interesting with cloud now descending, currently 162.07-17

• Spot to break back into cloud? Trade back above? Or stay capped ahead?

• Now descending 200-HMA 162.02, also descending 100-HMA 162.12 above

• In option expiries today, total $2.2 bln above between 162.00-30, to cap?

• Below total $2.4 bln between 161.00-75, to help limit downside?

• Some decline in IMM CTA JPY shorts but positions still large

• Interesting twist in JGB-US rate diffs, narrower in shorts, longs widen

• Interest rate differential in 2s to @272 bps while in 10s to @176 bps

• Related comments , , ,

• And , also , on Japan's GPIF

• US markets , , ,

• Crude oil at Asia start , on US-Iran

• On Fed , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD down 0.25% as risk aversion grips Asia on Middle East tensions rise

• Iran attacks Gulf states after US strikes, says Strait of Hormuz closed

• U.S. crude +3%, S&P 500 futures -0.3%, 10-yr Treasury futures down 5 ticks

• AUD/JPY eyed; Japan to push GPIF to boost alternative investments

• US June inflation data, Fed Chair Warsh's Congress testimony eyed this week

• Failure to break resistance keeps AUD in 0.6900-0.6970 range

• More resistance at 0.7000; support 0.6910-20, pivotal at 0.6878 200-day MA
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD opens at 0.6942 after closing 0.1% higher at 0.6951 on Friday

• Early Asia range 0.6942-0.6951; Friday global range 0.6934-0.6969

• Trades with a slightly offered tone as Middle East tensions escalate

• Iran attacks Gulf states after US strikes, says Strait of Hormuz closed

• US conducts strikes on Iran missile systems around Hormuz, Axios reports

• US June inflation data, Fed Chair Warsh's Congress testimony eyed this week

• AUD/JPY key; Nikkei says Japan to push GPIF to boost alternative investments

• Resistance 0.6965-70, clear break opens 0.7000

• Support 0.6910-20, pivotal at 0.6878 200-day MA, daily close below bearish
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD G10 net spec long +$0.89bn in the June 1-7 reporting period; $IDX -0.1%

• EUR$ -0.08% in period; specs -17.3k contracts now -16.2k; low growth EZ stirs selling

• $JPY -0.3%; specs +31.3k contracts now -123.8k; intervention woes weigh, pair still abv 160

• GBP$ +0.72%; specs +14.2k contracts now -88k; stable politics, steady BoE view lifts GBP

• $CAD +0.03%; specs -22.3k contracts now -173.1k; pair capped abv 1.42, lower in new period

• AUD$ +0.2%; specs -7k contracts now -24.7k; RBA less hawkish relative to Fed in 2026

• For now, most c.banks await data to see how recent oil volatility affects inflation/growth

• U.S. CPI on July in focus; Fed policy view more dovish post-payrolls last week

Majors w/IMM performance Chart:


IMM Position Table:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6945 after AUD/USD traded 0.6934-0.6969 overnight

• The pair traded in choppy fashion early but bulls eventually took control

• Broad-based USD selling, USD/CNH drop to 6.7766 helped to lift AUD/USD

• Copper gains & erosion of some losses in gold, silver contributed to the lift

• AUD/UD hit 0.6965, neared 0.6955 late and traded up +0.20% late in the day

• Rising daily, monthly RSIs & pair's hold above the 10-DMA give bulls comfort
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research sees a scope for EUR to gain some grounds over the coming weeks.

"The euro is currently the worst performing G10 currency in July but the 2-year yield spread has started to turn in favour of some moderate EUR/USD recovery. That reflected a sharper jump in yields in Europe relative to the US," MUFG notes

"The ECB minutes should at least reinforce the current pricing of another rate hike in Europe while for the US next week’s CPI release and Fed Chair Warsh’s semi-annual testimony will be crucial for short-term yields

We continue to see risks of US yields turning lower that should reinforce renewed upward momentum for EUR/USD," MUFG adds.