The dollar fell alongside Treasury yields on Monday as equities weakened after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled the possibility of new restrictive trade measures following Friday’s Supreme Court tariff ruling. Trump warned countries against backing away from recently negotiated trade deals, saying that he would hit them with higher duties under different laws and may impose license fees. His comments come as the EU considers freezing the ratification process of its trade deal with the U.S.

Yields fell even as the Chicago and Dallas Fed surveys showed improving business activity. February consumer confidence and a slate of Fed speakers are on Tuesday’s agenda. The State Department is withdrawing non-essential staff and families from the U.S. embassy in Beirut before Iran and the U.S. nuclear talks on Thursday. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that if the U.S. is moving to a higher-productivity, higher-growth economy it could imply that interest rates would also be higher.

EUR/USD held a modest gain above its 1.1775 session low, but the pair remains technically bearish while trading below the 21-day moving average, with an inverted daily hammer forming just above the nearby 55-day moving average at 1.1767. GBP/USD rose modestly with early European strength fading amid Trump’s tariff rhetoric and rising geopolitical angst. Softer gilt yields and lingering UK political, inflation and growth concerns helped cap sterling's advance. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and three other policymakers including Chief Economist Huw Pill are set to address lawmakers on Tuesday.

AUD/USD slipped as haven demand and weakness in shares lifted U.S. Treasuries and the dollar. An inverted daily hammer and diverging RSIs poses risks for AUD/USD bulls.

USD/JPY fell beneath its 21-day moving average after being capped near its 100-day moving average of 155.01, with the yen posting broad gains on worsening risk sentiment.

Treasury yields fell 4 to 7 basis points with the 2s-10s curve slipping 2 basis points to +58.1bp, its flattest reading since early December.

The S&P 500 fell 1.0% on weakness in financials and consumer shares. WTI oil eased from a six-month high with nuclear talks and U.S. tariffs in focus.

Gold rose 2.0% and silver gained 3% while copper fell 1.0%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.15%, USD/JPY -0.35%, GBP/USD +0.15%, AUD/USD -0.5%, DXY -0.15%, EUR/JPY -0.24%, GBP/JPY -0.28%, AUD/JPY -0.72%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

MUFG Research discusses the JPY outlook over the near- and medium term.

"An escalation of geopolitical risks is an obvious near-term risk that could encourage extended yen selling. Takaichi’s policy speech on Friday did not trigger any JGB selling but the tone of the remarks were still consistent with a focus on spending and growth.

There remains a risk of concerns growing if investors become sceptical over the ability to contain JGB issuance. If crude oil prices advance further over the short-term it will likely put upward pressure on global yields and potentially encourage further yen selling," MUFG notes.

"Still, the tone of rhetoric from the BoJ is likely to continue to be more hawkish, especially if the yen weakens further which should encourage expectations of an April hike and curtail the scope of yen selling at weaker levels. The threat of MoF intervention will also increase notably," MUFG adds.

• NY opened near 0.7070 after 0.7112 traded overnight, pair rallied early

• 0.7090 was neared but sellers emerged and the pair turned downward again

• Bid for safe-haven assets weighed; US Treasury prices rallied as did the US$

• AUD/JPY fell toward 108.80, gold gained,USD/CNH lifted its low & stocks sank

• AUD/USD fell to 0.7049 then neared 0.7060, was down -0.51% late in the day

• Daily inverted hammer & diverging daily RSIs are concerns for AUD/USD bulls
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research adopts a bullish bias on CHF over the coming week and runs a short EUR/CHF position in its recommendations portfolio.

"We argue that investors are underestimating and underpricing CHF strength. CHF is the most consistent and effective safe haven compared to its typical safe haven 'peers', and we think the SNB may be more tolerant of CHF strength than many investors think," MS notes.

"We forecast EUR/CHF to fall to 0.87, below consensus and forwards, and see USD/CHF shorts as an attractive hedge for USD 'bear case' scenarios," MS adds.

GBP/USD is likely to continue to experience volatile consolidation as it navigates a challenging domestic landscape and external geopolitical and trade pressures from the United States. The recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling against President Donald Trump's use of emergency powers for tariffs provided temporary relief for the pound, deflating the "tariff-premium" that had previously bolstered the greenback. However, geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Iran, continue to attract safe-haven flows into the dollar, capping the upside for GBP/USD. Domestically, cable is under pressure from rising political uncertainty ahead of a key UK by-election, which is eroding investor confidence in the government and may potentially foment another round of British fiscal uncertainty. This political turbulence is exacerbated by a dovish shift from the Bank of England, as falling inflation expectations and concerns about economic growth lead markets to anticipate a more aggressive easing cycle in the near-term. This environment has diminished the pound's yield advantage, complicating its outlook.

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD has found support recently near its critical 200-DMA at 1.3446, which held despite slipping below the average on Feb. 19 and 20. Initial resistance is identified at the falling 10-DMA 1.3568 and the Ichimoku conversion line at 1.3573. A decisive break above 1.3636, the 21-DMA, would signal a shift to a bullish bias, while the 1.3446 level remains a key downside protection point, below which the Jan. 19 low at 1.332 may quickly come into focus.
Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses USD outlook around the scope of a US military strike against Iran.

"Middle East geopolitical uncertainty will be a key focus ahead, with Polymarket odds of a US military strike against Iran (by end June) rising sharply this week to 69%. We outline scenarios: the market impact of military action would depend upon the duration of any conflict,' BofA notes.

"For G10 FX, the likely configuration of higher oil prices and lower global equities, would be broadly positive for USD especially vs. NZD, AUD & SEK, in contrast to the price action when both oil and equities rise. Our preferred hedge for Iran escalation would be short NZDUSD, given its risk beta as well as New Zealand’s dependence upon energy imports," BofA adds.

ANZ Research discusses AUD outlook into this week's Australia’s January’s CPI data

"Looking ahead, we will be closely watching Australia’s January’s CPI data to assess the RBA’s rate path. We anticipate CPI trimmed mean inflation of 3.2% y/y in January, down from 3.3% in December," ANZ notes.

"Given our view that RBA rate hike expectations are stretched, we remain cautious on the AUD heading into the CPI release with scope for weakening on any softer than expected data," ANZ adds. 

• GBP muted as well-known BoE dove (Alan Taylor) sticks to dovish script

• Sees risks shifting to lower inflation, higher unemployment

• Given a dovish BoE is baked in, GBP downside will likely lack follow-through

• That said, speeches by Lombardelli (neutral) and Pill (hawk) will garner more interest

• Both officials voted to leave rates on hold in Feb

• Thus a shift in stance from either member will be more meaningful for GBP
BoE pricing


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• Gold considered safe and assets fewer hold are logically safer

• Traders have slashed gold longs from 251k contracts to 160k

• Fewer bullish wages to provide drag on a further rise

• In Feb 2025 bullish bets exceeded 302k contracts and gold $2860

• Gold almost doubled to $5595 in period that traders have sold

• Topside targets: $5411, $5722, $6034, $6477 and $7042/oz

• The growing dollar short is a problem

•
Gold and betting


Gold and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of cryptocurrency- and blockchain-related companies fall premarket as trade uncertainty hurt riskier assets

• U.S. President Donald Trump says global tariffs could be hiked to 15% after Supreme Court rules against his emergency tariffs imposed last year

• Bitcoin , the world's most valuable cryptocurrency, down 1.7% at $66,499, while Ether falls 1.3% to $1,928

• Broader crypto market has also been easing from a rally, with bitcoin trading near its lowest since October 2024 and ETH near its lowest since May 2025

• Crypto exchange Coinbase Global falls 1.7%, while Blockchain farm operator Bitfarms Ltd down 0.5%

• Crypto miners: Riot Platforms Inc , MARA Holdings , Hut 8 down 1.7% to 2%

• BTC buyer Strategy declines 2%

• ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF falls 2%

• iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF down 2.1%

• Up to last close, BTC had fallen 24% YTD
(Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru)

(Amended product codes)

• Dollar softens after court strikes down Trump's tariffs, stoking policy worries

• USD/JPY has seen a 154.00-154.93 range, on Monday, according to EBS data

• The tenkan and kijun lines are negatively aligned, reinforcing the bearish market

• Especially as spot remains below the daily cloud, that currently spans 156.14-157.40

• There is scope for an eventual drop to probe the 2026 152.10 low posted in late January

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

• Ex-policymaker: BOJ may raise rates in March if yen resumes slide

Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Traders pared $1billion of their wagers on euro rising week to Feb 20

• At $26.8 billion the net long is still one of the largest on record

• Eventually those long euros must sell

• EUR/USD up 1.1744-1.1835 after supreme court rejected Trump's tariffs

• Trend remains firmly bullish but longs will provide great drag

•
EURUSD and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable rises to 1.3533 as U.S. tariff tumult weighs on the dollar

• 1.3533 is the highest level since Wednesday (1.3580 was the high that day)

• UK is among countries facing higher U.S. tariffs (15%)

• Friday's low was 1.3439 - before the pound rose on UK PMI data beats

• CFTC data: net GBP short rose to 42,404 contracts in week to Feb 17

• UK by-election in Manchester on Thursday (result expected on Friday)

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option risk reversal contracts can offer clues on directional risk/sentiment

• Options thrive on FX volatility - unknown, yet key to premiums, so implied volatility is a proxy

• Risk reversals show which direction demands implied volatility premium versus the other

• This highlights where FX traders think a greater FX volatility risk/vulnerability lies

• EUR/USD risk reversals retain a topside strike premium and it's marginally higher on Monday

• Benchmark 1-month 25 delta contract is 0.25, after sales from 1.05 to 0.1 between February 10-20

• Related - large nearby FX option strikes due to expire 10-am New York cut Monday
EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD rally subsides to 1.1818 from Monday peak 1.1835

• Mon close above 1.1785 will negate one bearish chart signal

• Exit from Bollinger downtrend channel may spur short-covering

• But 21 DMA resistance at 1.1856 a deterrent, capping upside

• Implications of US court ruling on Trump tariffs unclear

• Trump exploring other means of imposing trade levies
EUR


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD clings to opening gains, last 1.1826 from 1.1778

• Substantial 0.4% rise follows US courting ruling against tariffs

• Leaps out of Bollinger downtrend channel 1.1786 as USD slides

• 21 DMA resistance at 1.1857 could be tested before day-end

• Asia stocks cheer the likely temporary relief

• S. Korea and Taiwan stocks hit record high, Hang Seng +2.7%
EUR


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.1% in whippy Asian trading as investors react to US tariff tumult

• Dip buyers pounce on an early drop to 0.7069 from Friday's 0.7095 close

• USD weakens broadly in reaction to Trump raising global tariff rate to 15%

• AUD races to 0.7112 high but undermined by a bout of risk aversion in Asia

• Wall Street futures slide; E-Mini -0.7%, ASX 200 -0.5% on tariff uncertainty

• AUD falls back to 0.7072; support 0.7040-45, resistance 0.7120-25, 0.7145-50

• AU CPI Wed, Nvidia results, Trump's State of the Union address key this week
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD rallies 0.3% as Asia embraces "sell America" theme on tariff woes

• Uncertainty on what new levies Trump may impose undermines USD

• Trump raises global tariff rate to 15% after court ruling on previous plan

• Wall Street futures decline; S&P E-Min -0.5%, Nasdaq futures -0.7%

• Nvidia results, Trump's State of Union address, geopolitics key this week

• Thursday by-election in Greater Manchester may revive political uncertainty

• Resistance 1.3555-60, 1.3575-80, support 1.3480, 1.3440

• Friday range 1.3439-1.3515, Asia range 1.3480-1.3533
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD jumps +0.4% to 1.1823 from Fri close 1.1780

• Could rally further till 21 DMA resistance 1.1857 is tested

• Negative-USD reaction seen to US Supreme Court tariff ruling

• But investors on alert for other ways to impose levies

• Trump raises global tariff to 15% from initial 10%

• US inflation data on Fri may alter Fed cut expectations
EUR


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD up 0.15% Monday after Trump raises global tariff rate to 15%

• Trump's tariff increase follows Supreme Court ruling on previous program

• EU says it will accept no increase in US tariffs after Supreme Court ruling

• France says EU has the tools to hit back at Trump over tariffs, FT reports

• ECB's Lagarde: Hopes any new U.S. tariff plan is "thought through"

• Tariff uncertainty likely to undermine USD, support EUR

• Support 1.1740-45, 1.1695-1.1700; resistance 1.1810-15, 1.1850-60

• Friday range 1.1744-1.1808, Asia range 1.1778-1.1801
EUR:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD down 0.3% Monday after Trump raises global tariff rate to 15%

• Gaps lower from Fri close of 0.7095, Asia's range 0.7069-0.7076

• Asia markets likely to stay risk averse on tariff upheaval

• Trump's tariff increase follows Supreme Court ruling on previous program

• Ruling limits Trump's leverage but won't end uncertainty for trade partners

• Tariff ruling also clouds Fed's rate path after a year of upheaval

• AU CPI Wed, Nvidia results, Trump's State of the Union address key this week

• AUD uptrend reinforced by Fri bounce from slightly below 21-day MA

• Support 0.7040-45, 0.7015-20, resistance 0.7100; Fri range 0.7016-0.7095
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

(Corrects typo in headline)

• GBP$ firm in NY afternoon, +0.22% at 1.3491; NorAm range 1.3515-1.3466

• Pair found o/n supt below 50% Fib of 1.3039-1.3867 at 1.3453, 1.3445- 200-DMA

• Pound whipsawed in early NorAm after US core PCE data, SCOTUS tariff decision

• Early USD bid ultimately evaporated after tariff decision, despite higher USD yields

• Fiscal concerns on loss of revenue lift fiscal angst; precious metals boosted as well

• GBP$ res 1.3516/5 Thurs/Fri highs, 1.3573 daily conversion line, 1.3644 21-DMA

• Supt 1.3439 Friday Europe low, 1.3395 100-DMA, 1.3321 daily low Jan 19

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1770 after 1.1744 traded overnight, pair dipped lower early

• 1.1755 was neared but buyers emerged after US Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs

• The US$ sold-off sharply on the headlines and US yields

rallied

• USD/CNH fell away from its 6.9061 high & gold , stocks

rallied

• EUR/USD spiked up to 1.1808 but the rally fizzled as US$ selling abated

• US$ firmed up, USD/CNH bounced upward and stocks erased some gains

• EUR/USD hit 1.1766 then neared 1.1780 late, traded up +0.10% late in the day

• Two consecutive daily dojis indicate pair is consolidating its recent drop, a bear signal

• Falling monthly RSI, hold below 10- & 21-DMAs are also bearish tech signals
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ING Research discusses EUR/USD outlook in the near-term.

"It’s not easy to estimate the impact on EUR/USD from a further oil rally, given the pair’s reduced sensitivity to oil in the past year. In our current model that takes 12-month rolling betas, another $5 rally in Brent means around 1% lower in EUR/USD, but that correlation often strengthens during oil shocks, and the risks are of an even larger selloff in the pair," ING notesa.

"In our view, this confirms the reluctance to price in geopolitical risks. Intuitively, it means greater downside risks for EUR/USD, which we believe can trade all the way down to 1.160 in a major escalation," ING adds.