• Ether rallied to 2442.64 overnight, sellers emerged and it then turned lower

• It fell despite sharp gains in US dollar alternatives gold and silver

• Broad-based USD buying, firm US yields weighed on Ether

• Ether fell back below the 38.2% Fibo of the 2178.34-2805.45 rally

• That is the second time in as many days Ether failed to hold above that Fibo

• A daily inverted hammer formed and daily RSI turned downward

• Ether may need to consolidate recent gains if rally off Oct. 30 low is to resume
eth

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research previews the US October jobs report due on Friday.

"This month, we look for headline NFP to rise by +65k, offering a middle ground in firming from +29k in September but still coming in below +133k in August. On balance, we see this as a solid pace in the current environment in which the breakeven has dropped sharply due to shifts in immigration policy, especially as the three-month moving average would bump up to +76k from +51k if our forecast is on track, pending revisions," CACIB notes.

"With decent job gains expected on the month, we project an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2%, slightly up from the July/August trough but still a historically low level. We expect average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% MoM, firming from just 0.1% MoM in September, though base effects would still take the YoY pace down to 2.9% from 3.0%," CACIB adds.

Citi on the scope of JPY intervention after the US midterm elections.

"We expect a clear downtrend in the USDJPY to emerge over the long term now that US midterm elections are over, but the risk of JPY weakness will continue to smolder in the short to medium term. In the near term, the key will be the performance of US equities after the elections and the impact on geopolitical risk and crude prices via the situation in Iran,"Citi notes.

"Crude prices are also an important factor in the economic policy outlined by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and we do not expect any change in Japanese authorities' ongoing efforts to defend the JPY. We expect the next round of intervention to buy the JPY if the USDJPY tests ¥160/$, with the authorities likely to try to push the pair below ¥155/$," Citi adds.

• Gold is back above $4100 on the post-midterms squeeze and testing trendline resistance

• The UST rally is helping, with the 10-year below 4.90%

• Narrative building that slower AI build-outs ease fears of AI crowding out UST demand

• Resistance: $4203 (100DMA), then $4400

• With gold up over 5% in the last two sessions, we could start to see some consolidation in the short run

• US payrolls are the next event risk in focus
Gold in 2026

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• US-listed gold miners rise premarket as gold prices touch two-week high

• Spot gold rises 1.9% to $4,136.60 per ounce, touching its highest since October 22 [GOL/]

• Gold prices extend post-US midterm election rally as US dollar and Treasury yields weaken, while a sharp drop in oil prices eases inflation concerns

• US-listed shares of South African miners Gold Fields , AngloGold Ashanti and Harmony Gold

gain between 1.8% and 6.3%

• US-listed shares of Canadian miner Kinross Gold gains 2.3%, while Agnico Eagle Mines up 2.6%

• Newmont and Barrick Mining , among the biggest US-listed gold miners by market capitalization, up 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively

**Diversified precious-metals miner Sibanye Stillwater

advances 5.1%

• SPDR Gold Shares ETF up 1.7%

(Reporting by Jayasree Prabhu)

• EUR/USD -0.05%, USD/JPY -0.02%, GBP/USD -0.1%, AUD/USD 0.14%

• S&P E-minis 0.17%, DAX 0.85%, Nikkei 225 -1.79%, FTSE 0.8%

• EUR/USD resistance proving remarkably resilient

• BOJ minutes lift yen, but cloud cushions USD/JPY's fall

• GBP/USD respects seven-week peak before expected BoE hike

• AUD/USD maintains 0.70 handle as RBA's Hauser digested

• Option expiries . US Open

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Please return to GLOBAL-FXBuzz-Edit

EUR/USD risk reversals show options traders still aren't paying a premium for topside strikes over downside, even as the premium for downside protection shrinks. G10 FX implied volatility is falling and the EUR/USD curve is edging towards a return to long-term lows. The ongoing lack of realised volatility and diminished event risk are weighing on premiums.

Risk reversals show a smaller premium for EUR puts over calls across all maturities. That is a clear shift, but there's no rush to flip this directional risk premium to topside strikes. The benchmark 1-month risk reversal has settled at 0.2 in favour of EUR puts, down from 0.6 in mid-October and 1.6 in early October. The contract hasn't traded with a topside strike premium since a brief foray in late August. Options buyers have cut what they pay for downside protection, but they haven't yet started paying a premium for upside over downside protection.

Further out, the picture is more cautious. Longer-dated risk reversals hold a higher premium for EUR puts over calls, which shows a greater perceived risk of EUR losses than gains. The April-May 2027 French elections are seen as a risk to the EUR, and they are keeping a bid under downside strikes from the 6-month expiry.

For now, that leaves the short end closer to neutral and the longer end still leaning towards downside protection. A topside premium at the 1-month point would be the first sign that sentiment is turning.

Related comment - FX Options see little NFP risk for the USD
EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals-


EUR/USD FXO implied volatility

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 27.9 pip range thus far Thursday; 1.3501 is intra-day high

• 1.3501 is 1.5 pips shy of Wednesday's seven-week high

• Rise to Wednesday high was fuelled by USD selling on midterm blue wave

• Retreat from Wednesday high based 8 pips shy of 1.3447 (Monday high)

• 1.3397-1.3432 was range on Tuesday (when America voted)

• Vance repudiates Iran war. BoE rate hike to 4% expected at 1200 GMT

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Markets pricing in more than 80% chance of Fed hike in December

• BOJ minutes reinforce expectations for further rate hikes

• Sterling near seven-week high before Bank of England decision

(Adds Treasuries in headline and paragraphs 1, 7, latest prices)

By Rocky Swift

TOKYO, Nov 5 (Reuters) - The dollar slid to the lowest in more than a month on Thursday in the aftermath of an overwhelming victory by Democrats in US midterm elections, which sent oil prices and Treasury yields lower.

The yen gained after minutes from the Bank of Japan's September meeting reinforced bets for further interest-rate hikes, while sterling rose toward a seven-week high ahead of a Bank of England policy decision, at which another rate increase was expected.

Democrats swept to majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives, spurring gains in US Treasuries and global equities, though doubts remained about whether the new Congress would be as accommodating to the AI sector.

The market reaction, particularly the sharp drop in oil prices, reflected expectations that President Donald Trump will now be unable to conduct an aggressive agenda, including the US-Israeli war on Iran or trade tariffs, said Rodrigo Catril, senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank.

"We need to be mindful that currency and market movements in general may not necessarily reflect a sort of medium-term dynamic, but rather positioning and maybe even overreaction to the results of the midterms," Catril said. "What seems to be a bit clearer is that the move lower in oil prices is very helpful for risk sentiment, as well as the move lower in yields."

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.22% to 101.25, extending a 0.34% slide on Wednesday and touching its lowest level since September 30. The euro climbed 0.29% to $1.1261, while the yen strengthened 0.27% to 157.95 per dollar.

The yield on benchmark US 10-year Treasury notes fell 4.5 basis points to 4.847%, the lowest since September 10.

Despite the political shift in the US, expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest-rate path remained largely intact. Markets are pricing in an 80.7% chance of a rate increase of at least 25 basis points from the Fed at its December meeting, according to CME FedWatch, up from 77.4% in the prior session.

Key data inputs for Fed policymakers will be labour market indicators, including initial jobless claims on Thursday and non-farm payrolls on Friday. They come on the heels of the ADP report on Wednesday showing that private payrolls rose by more than expected in October.

"The tight growth in supply of the labour market I think means that the unemployment rate is going to remain low, and therefore consumption growth should remain healthy in the United States," Brian Martin, head of G3 economics at ANZ, said on a podcast. "The midterm elections themselves aren't likely to meaningfully change that path of tightening that we had expected."

Sterling added 0.12% to $1.349, up for a seventh straight session and poised for its highest close since September 14. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates to contend with inflation pressure from soaring energy costs, although it may push back against investor bets that several more increases will follow next year.

The Bank of Japan meeting minutes from September, when policymakers raised rates to a 31-year high of 1.25%, underscored expectations for further tightening, with some board members signalling a chance of faster increases. Markets now widely expect the BOJ's next hike to come in December.

The Australian dollar edged up 0.07% to $0.7009, while New Zealand's kiwi dollar surged 0.41% to $0.5641.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 0.22% to $80,357.66, and ether rose 0.11% to $2,419.79.

(Reporting by Rocky Swift; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Thomas Derpinghaus and William Mallard)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/15:00 GMT on Thursday November 5

• EUR/USD: 1.1195 (905M), 1.1200 (4.7BLN), 1.1205-15 (2.7BLN), 1.1220-30 (3.4BLN), 1.1235-45 (1.3BLN)

• 1.1250 (2.7BLN), 1.1260-65 (1BLN), 1.1270-75 (3.3BLN), 1.1300 (1.2BLN), 1.1350-55 (4BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8080 (388M), 0.8190-0.8200 (410M), 0.8225-30 (830M)

• EUR/CHF: 0.9150 (206M), 0.9200-10 (242M), 0.9225 (305M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3400 (1.1BLN), 1.3450 (200M), 1.3485 (282M), 1.3535-45 (383M), 1.3570 (664M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8350 (330M), 0.8400 (609M). AUD/NZD: 1.2430 (200M), 1.2450 (350M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6950 (809M), 0.6960-65 (565M), 0.7000 (605M), 0.7050 (210M), 0.7070 (602M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3905-10 (746M), 1.3995 (206M). EUR/JPY: 176.75 (255M), 177.00 (498M)

• USD/JPY: 157.00 (2.3BLN), 157.45-50 (771M), 157.70 (690M), 158.00 (756M), 158.25-30 (777M)(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australian Gold and Copper rise as much as 7.2% to A$0.113, hitting their highest level since October 28

• Diversified miner reports shallow high-grade gold results from reverse circulation drilling within its Evergreen prospect in New South Wales

• Co says results extend shallow oxide gold mineralisation identified in earlier drilling

• Adds assay results have been received from nine of 21 reverse circulation holes, with results from 12 more holes pending

• More than 340,000 shares change hands, about 2.2x the 30-day average

• YTD, stock down 51.1%

(Reporting by Subhalakshmi Dey in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD +0.2% Thur as risk sentiment uplift extends into Asia trading

• Gold +1.7% as USD & UST yields soften in wake of U.S. election result

• AUD near upper hourly Bollinger band, further topside progress will be slow

• 0.7068 mtd high would be tough to break, but doing so would enliven bulls

• AU trade surplus grew to 2.83 bln in Sep on stronger LNG and metals exports

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking at ANU Canberra Thur

• Range Asia 0.70011-215 support 0.6865 0.6835, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD +0.2% Thur as rising inflation stokes ECB Dec rate hike speculation

• EU inflation hit 3-year high in Oct - inline with consensus at +4.0% y/y

• EU Sep producer prices due Thur, Reuters poll consensus 2.5% m/m, 10.9% y/y

• Democrat's win in U.S. midterm elections lifting risk sentiment short term

• EUR move toward 1.1381 55-DMA possible if positive momentum holds

• 1.1065 17-month low the next target if the pair resumes downtrend

• Range Asia 1.1230-57, support 1.1065 1.0733, resistance 1.1285 1.1710
EUR Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australia's gold stocks climb as much as 9.1%, posting their biggest intraday pct gain since June 15

• Sub-index touches its highest level since October 19

• Gold prices surged more than 3% overnight, as the dollar tumbled after Democrats swept the US midterm elections [GOL/]

• Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources

rise 8.4% and 6%, respectively

• AXGD down 4.8% YTD

(Reporting by Keshav Singh Chundawat in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Thur, still supported by upbeat post-U.S. election sentiment

• AU Sep balance on goods +2.83 bln (poll 810 mln), goods exports +2.3% m/m

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking at ANU Canberra Thur

• AUD may struggle to break above 0.7068 mtd high, sideways drift likely

• WTI flat Thur after outsized-overnight fall on hope for Iran war resolution

• Range Asia 0.70011-12 support 0.6865 0.6835, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• BTC jumped Wed along with risk assets after US midterms, last $80,650

• Rose as high as $81,040, clearing 21 DMA resistance at $80,232

• Bulls need a closing above 55 DMA $81,647 to make more progress

• Thurs close above $82,162 engages Bollinger uptrend channel

• Rally comes despite potential Democrat blow to crypto

• Tech stocks rallied hard while oil prices plunged, denting USD broadly
BTC

(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Goldman Sachs Research previews the October US jobs report due on Friday.

"We expect a 75k increase in nonfarm payrolls in October (vs. 65k consensus)....Our forecast reflects a solid signal from alternative employment data. We expect the unemployment rate to stay at 4.2%, but with risks skewed to the downside reflecting potential convergence to the lower level implied by continuing claims," GS notes.

"We forecast a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings in October, reflecting neutral calendar effects.  Our wage growth tracker fell to just 3.0% year-over-year in Q3 after the ECI was released last week," GS adds.

• NZD/USD +0.7% from Thur 0.55811 low, sentiment positive post-U.S. elections

• WTI -7.7% on hopes for Iran peace resolution after Democrats take Congress

• NZ's major parties (National & Labour) neck-and-neck in pre-election polls

• Thur's poor NZ jobs data likely to limit topside potential short term

• Futures pricing implies 58.4% chance of Dec RBNZ hike, down from 78.2% Wed

• Resumption of NZD downtrend would put break below Oct 14 0.5566 low on radar

• Range NZ 0.56181-289, support 0.5566 0.5485, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.8% from Thur 0.69541 low after Democrats win control of Congress

• Brent crude -8.0% amid speculation that result may hasten end of Iran war

• DXY -0.3%, UST yields decline, gold surges 3.4%, and U.S. equities firm

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking at ANU Canberra Thur

• Futures pricing implies 91.2% probability RBA will stand pat on OCR in Dec

• AUD 0.7140 resistance a bridge too far, sideways consolidation likely

• Overnight range 0.6978-0.7022 support 0.6865, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The euro gained against a broadly softer dollar on Wednesday as US equities rallied following the midterm elections and oil prices slid after President Donald Trump said the Iran war was partly responsible for the Republican Party losing control of Congress.

Treasury yields and oil slipped after a benign refunding announcement, while ADP payrolls estimate for October of 86K beat forecasts and ISM services data signaled continued growth. Jobs figures for last month are due on Friday.

The decline in yields was more muted in Europe after euro zone inflation climbed to a three-year high and optimism grew over improved ties with the US, including support for Ukraine.

European Union leaders aim to appoint a successor to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde at their December 17 to 18 summit, a senior euro zone official said.

FX turnover was generally above recent averages, with Scandinavian currencies seeing the heaviest activity. The Swedish krona led G10 gains in the risk-on environment, while the Norwegian krone under performed as oil prices fell.

Vols fell across currencies and tenors, pricing in a lower risk of geopolitical and policy uncertainty following the US election results. One-month DXY vol fell to 5.58%, its lowest level in over a month.

EUR/USD climbed to a 21-session high of 1.1273 on broad USD selling before paring gains, keeping a bullish bias while above 1.1187.

GBP/USD climbed on broad post-midterm USD weakness, maintaining a bullish tone above 1.34 ahead of Thursday's Bank of England decision where a hike is expected.

USD/JPY eased back toward the 158.44 cloud top as upward momentum stalled, though the broader outlook remains constructive, with a break above the 200-DMA at 158.63 needed to re-energize bulls.

AUD/USD held above 0.7000 on broad USD weakness, with improving momentum indicators and bullish price action keeping the bias tilted higher.

Treasury yields were down 3 to 5 basis points. The 2s-10s curve fell about 2 basis points to +31.3bp.

The S&P 500 rose 1.74% with most sectors rising.

WTI oil slid 8% to a one-month low.

Gold rose 3.36% while copper gained 0.25%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.22%, USD/JPY -0.19%, GBP/USD +0.36%, AUD/USD +0.54%, DXY -0.27%, EUR/JPY +0.05%, GBP/JPY +0.22%, AUD/JPY +0.42%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research discusses the JPY outlook and expects a turning point for JPY direction towards sizeable strength over the coming weeks.

"Two aspects of yen flows that continue to weigh on the yen have less to do with rate spreads. The first relates to the policy decision made by the government to triple the size of the NISA limit for Japanese households. That massive increase in the tax-free savings limit has seen a sharp increase in outflows from Japan. 

The second aspect relates to FDI flows. This is another flow that is a lot less about rates and more about structural changes in Japan’s economy. The BoJ’s full edition of the ‘Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices’ was released on Monday and made reference to the acceleration in Japan’s population decline, which fell 2.5% in 2025 versus 2020, the largest 5-year decline on record in data back to 1920," MUFG notes.

"We still suspect the yen is close to a turning point and market rates and/or policies by the government to encourage greater sums of capital to remain in Japan should have a positive impact on the yen. Rate spreads still matter for the yen, but as can be seen from rates and FX moves since late September, not always," MUFG adds.

• Ether fell to 2224.74 earlier in the session, buyers emerged, sharp rally ensued

• Rally emerged as results of the US election filtered in; Ether cleared the 10-DMA

• USD, US yields fell after the election results, helped fule the rally

• Sharp gains in gold, silver, stocks also contributed to fuel Ether's rally

• Key 2402.00/2415.00 zone was broken, Ether hit a 13-session high of 2444.71

• Ether's price action has allowed techs to now take a more bullish lean

• RSIs are rising, daily RSI diverged on today's low, those indicate bulls gaining control

• Massive daily bull hammer candle formed, reinforces view bears are losing their grip

• 2520.00/2575.00 zone in focus; 50-DMA, series of daily highs sit in that area
eth

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research discusses the impact of the Democrat blue wave on US equities.

"The midterms represent the most obvious clearing event we discussed in last week's note, with history providing an encouraging signal. Since 1982, large-cap equities have gained approximately 15% on a cap-weighted basis and 16% on an equal-weighted basis in the six months following midterms, with both measures rising roughly 22% over the subsequent year. In our view, investors broadly anticipate a Democratic sweep with a narrow Senate majority. Thus, given that this was accompanied by a Democratic gubernatorial win in TX, this outcome could contribute to near-term volatility," MS notes.

"However, we think it could mark the final phase of the rolling correction we've been discussing since the summer. Renewed military escalation with Iran or additional tariffs following the elections could also pose near-term risks," MS adds.

EUR/USD reached a 21-session high on Wednesday as US dollar bulls retreated. Democrats had strong election results and are set to control both the House and the Senate. Investors expect this to produce political gridlock, which could be bullish for the pair. It is still unclear how contentious the rest of President Donald Trump's term will be with the new Congress. For now, the market is leaning toward two years of gridlock.

Gridlock could weigh on the dollar and Treasury yields. Fiscal expansion, additional tax cuts and new funding issuance all could be less likely, and each of those could pressure the broader interest rate complex and dollar downward.

Democratic control also raises questions about AI expansion. Much of the recent US economic growth came from AI-related investment, so a slowdown there could slow the economy and add to dollar weakness. Investors might then expect a less hawkish Fed and price in fewer rate hikes, which would weigh on the dollar further. In that scenario, EUR/USD could erase much of its 2026 downtrend.

The daily technicals already suggest rising upside risk. The pair trades above its 10- and 21-day moving averages, and the daily RSI shows upward momentum. A double bottom is close to being confirmed. A break above 1.1270 would confirm the bottom and put the 1.1410/30 zone in focus.
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)