• CAD/JPY holds softer tone, probing near-term support at 115.10

• Below here opens up the March low at 114.66

• 200-hour MAs at 115.64/73 acts as firm resistance for now, capping rebound attempts

• U.S./Iran talks ongoing but optimism is fading into the weekend

• Two-way headline risk keeps conviction low

• CAD underperforms with exception of NZD, AUD - oil bid no longer translating into CAD demand

• With CAD a laggard, the bear bias is emboldened, eyes firmly on 114.66

• USD/CAD
CADJPY hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Bank of America Global Research summarizes its GBP and CHF outlook and year-end targets.

"GBP (GBP/USD 1.43) – bullish: UK better placed than G10 peers to weather energy shock; but domestic politics around May election a near term hurdle," BofA notes.

"CHF (EUR/CHF 0.93) – bearish: SNB more inclined to intervene but weakness to be limited by its status as a hedge against global policy uncertainty," BofA adds.

The British pound remains moribund as intensifying Middle East tensions and surging oil prices drive a flight to safety, bolstering the U.S. dollar at sterling’s expense.

GBP/USD fell to a session low of 1.3322 today, increasingly influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly concerning the U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. These factors are overshadowing already fragile UK inflation and growth concerns, leading to a flight to safety that favors the dollar over the pound.

Rising crude oil prices create a complex scenario for the UK economy, where inflationary pressures and fiscal concerns resurface while growth prospects weaken. This dual threat typically adversely affects risk-sensitive currencies like the pound, further diminishing its appeal.

From a technical standpoint, the outlook for GBP/USD appears bearish, especially after breaching multiple key moving averages. The pound is struggling to regain the 1.3350 level, where both the 10-DMA (1.3351) and the daily conversion line (1.3353) align. Resistance is further found at the daily base line of 1.3397. Without a convincing close above the 200-DMA at 1.3434, the downward trajectory seems more probable.

On the downside, the NorAm session low of 1.3322 acts as a critical support level. A break below this could lead to further declines toward the lower daily Bollinger band at 1.3234 and the trend low of 1.3220 from March 11. Given that the pair is trading significantly below its 50, 100, and 200-day averages, bearish momentum prevails, and traders should brace for increased volatility in response to the ongoing geopolitical yaw.
GBP Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research highlights moderate USD buying from the latest reading of its month-end fixing model.

"The moves in equity markets, when adjusted for market capitalisation and FX performance this month, suggest that month-end portfolio-rebalancing flows are likely to be moderate USD buying across the board with the strongest buy signal in the case of the USD vs the NOK," CACIB notes.

Barclays Research highlights strong USD buying from the latest reading of its month-end fixing model. 

"Our passive month-end and quarter-end rebalancing model shows strong USD buying against most majors, and moderate buying against the EUR, JPY and GBP," Barclays notes.

• AUD/USD rallied to 0.6957 in Asia, sellers emerged, 0.6930 hit in Europe

• NY opened near 0.69335, the pair traded down -0.19% in early action

• US$, US yields gains weighed on the pair; USD/CNH hit 6.9156

• Latest Pres. Trump comments regarding Iran conflict underpinned US$ gains

• Oil rallied while gold , silver , stocks fell on risk-off

• AUD/USD is nearing the March 23 daily low and technicals remain bearish

• RSIs are falling & aren't oversold, pair below 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs and daily cloud top

• Diverging monthly RSI, the March monthly inverted hammer reinforce bearish singals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(adds link to option expiry info)

• Large 1.3350 option expiry exerts magnetism over GBP/USD

• The size of the strike for the 10am ET NY cut is 1.1 billion pounds

• 1.3339-1.3368 is Thursday range-to-date (1.3339 is three-day low)

• Higher oil prices weigh on cable (U.S. is a net energy exporter, unlike UK)

• Trump says Iran must act quickly to salvage talks

• BoE's Breeden sees less second-round inflation risk than in 2022

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD falls to 0.6932 as global stock losses weigh on risk-sensitive AUD

• 0.6932 is the lowest level since Monday (0.6912 was six-week low that day)

• Bids expected around 0.6900 if slide extends (0.6897 was February 6 low)

• There is a big 0.6900 option expiry for the 10am ET NY cut (1400 GMT)

• RBA's Kent warns prolonged Middle East war could unmoor inflation expectations

• Iron ore, LNG ports in Australia's Pilbara mining hub close as cyclone strikes

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable falls to 1.3347, its lowest level since Monday, as oil prices rise

• Brent is at $104/barrel vs $70 before Iran war began on February 28

• There is a big 1.3350 option expiry for the 10am ET NY cut (1400 GMT)

• 1.3359 was Wednesday's low (1.3427 was Wednesday's London session high)

• Monday's range was 1.3258-1.3480 (widest daily range since 4 April 2025)

• UK consumer sentiment slides to weakest in over two years, BRC survey shows

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• The eurozone imports energy while the U.S.exports

• Middle East conflicts support energy prices weighing EUR/USD

• Traders usually pare risk during wars - they are long of euros

• An enduring war will likely slow the global economy

• Support for global reserve currency may stem from slowdown

• Currently investors see little cause to play safe and buy USD

• Troubling signs of divergence across FX markets

•
eurusd


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/14.00 GMT on Thursday March 26

• EUR/USD: 1.1500 (3.2BLN), 1.1525 (690M), 1.1540 (295M), 1.1575 (630M), 1.1600 (1.4BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8000 (287M). EUR/CHF: 0.9195 (365M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3350 (1.1BLN), 1.3380 (243M), 1.3390-1.3400 (430M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6900 (1.2BLN), 0.6915-25 (382M), 0.6980 (332M), 0.7000 (441M)

• 0.7025 (230M), 0.7100 (304M). NZD/USD: 0.5820 (310M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3750 (506M), 1.3900 (387M)

• USD/JPY: 158.00 (789M), 159.00 (365M), 160.00 (556M), 161.00-05 (250M)

• FX options wrap - Don't be fooled, binary risk, war premium, USD/JPY gains (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.2% Thur in quiet trading, markets decidedly nervous on Iran

• Re-escalation risk very high as more U.S. troops deploy to Middle East

• Iran not keen on talks, but said to be reviewing U.S. proposal to end war

• RBA Assistant Governor Chris Kent flags war related inflation/growth threats

• AUD sitting on lower hourly Bollinger band, oversold but news remains key

• Range Asia 0.69325-52, support 0.6900, resistance 0.7250 0.7282
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD heavy amidst broad USD demand, Asia range 1.1555-66 EBS

• Down hard from 1.1631 high yesterday, 1.1640 recent peak Monday

• FX more sceptical than equities on Middle East de-escalation

• EUR/USD hovering near base of 1.1562-94 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• 100-HMA 1.1575 above in cloud, ascending 200-HMA 1.1539 below

• Massive E3.2 bln option expiries today below at 1.1500

• Total E2.5 bln between 1.1525-85, providing gravitational pull

• Another E2 bln in expiries above between 1.1600-50

• In contrast, EUR/JPY very buoyant with JPY again under pressure

• Range 184.26-45 EBS and just below recent peak Feb 25 at 184.77

• Holding too above 183.68-72 wafter thin daily Ichimoku cloud

• EUR/CHF buoyant too after recent SNB FX action threat, 0.9152-58 EBS

• Still holding below 0.9169-0.9236 descending daily Ichi cloud though

• E365 mln in option expiries today at 0.9195 topside

• EUR/GBP sideways, indicated 0.8652-53, holding in lower plane

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/USD:


EUR/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD eases 0.1% in Asia after closing 0.35% lower on Wednesday

• Investors nervous on mixed messaging from U.S. and Iran on de-escalation

• Signs that Iran is reviewing U.S. proposals to end war may limit downside

• But Iran's assertion that it had no interest in holding talks limit upside

• U.s. warnings that Iran would be hit harder if it did not accept defeat cap

• BoE external members of the MPC Alan Taylor and Megan Greene speak Thursday

• Support at 1.3351 and 1.3321, 50% and 61.8% Fibo of 1.3220-1.3480 rally

• More support at 1.3285; resistance 1.3390-1.3400, 1.3430, 1.3470-80

• Wednesday range 1.3359-1.3436, 1.3350-1.3368
UK public's inflation expectations soar: Citi/YouGov survey:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD flatlines Thur, activity subdued as traders weigh Iran de-escalation

• RBA Assistant Governor Kent emphasises inflation/growth threat of longer war

• Trump's 5-day hold on hitting Iran's electricity grid ends Sat

• With more U.S. troops deploying to Middle East re-escalation risk is acute

• Iran not keen on talks, but said to be reviewing U.S. proposal to end war

• AUD still news reactive, major support near 0.6900 the key inflection point

• Range Asia 0.69375-52, support 0.6900, resistance 0.7250 0.7282
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Broad USD strength overnight pushes USD/JPY back up into 159 handle

• USD/JPY 159.39-49 EBS so far in Asia, awaiting more Middle East news

• Iran reviewing US proposal to end war but crude oil prices sticky, high

• JGB-US rate differentials holding just below recent wides

• Market also looking for clues on central bank moves on Middle East conflict

• USD/JPY looking to remain in limbo in core 158-160 range for now

• Tad wider 157.51-159.90 range since March 18

• Upside capped by Japanese exporters, threat of Japan MOF FX intervention

• Downside limited by Japanese importer and spec bids, option-related too

• Expiries today 158.00 $789 mln, 159.00-10 415 mln, 159.90-160.00 $656 mln

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Middle East , ,

• On US economy , Fed , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Killi Resources rise as much as 39.3% to A$0.195, hitting highest level since Sept. 27, 2024

• Gold and copper explorer says Queensland government grant has been approved for drilling of Baloo prospect at Mt Rawdon gold mine

• Adds co-funded value of grant is up to A$275,000 ($190,877.50)

• Stock up 277% this year, including the day's move

($1 = 1.4407 Australian dollars)
(Reporting by Rajasik Mukherjee in Bengaluru)

• NZD/USD -0.6% from Wed 0.58431 high, with activity subsiding early Thur

• RBNZ's Conway says structural reform needed, monetary policy not enough

• Iran not interested in talks, said to be reviewing U.S. proposal to end war

• More U.S. troops in transit to Middle East, clock ticks on 5-day moratorium

• NZD news driven for now, break below 0.5710 would accelerate downtrend

• Range NZ 0.58035-21, support 0.5710 0.5580, resistance 0.5918 0.6092 0.6120
NZD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Danske Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and targets the pair at 159 in 1- and 3-months, 145 in 6 months, and 150 in 12 months.

"Since our last update, spot has risen sharply driven by both a stronger USD and a weaker JPY. The relative terms of trade shock stemming from the war in Iran is particularly notable in USD/JPY with the US having become a net exporter of energy while Japan remains one of the most energy-import dependent economies in the developed world," Danske notes.

"Fundamentally, we think USD strength will turn later in the year, but near-term the balance of risk in the cross remains skewed to the topside. This in turn will continue to put pressure on the Japanese authorities’ willingness to verbally – and potentially actually – intervene in the FX market.

With the latest move we lift the short end of our profile on 1M and 3M to levels close to current spot. However, we maintain a downward sloping profile for the cross targeting 150 in 12M," Danske adds.

• AUD/USD sits -1.1% from Wed 0.7024 high, in limbo awaiting Iran developments

• Iran supposedly reviewing U.S. proposal to end war, but no interest in talks

• UN chief Antonio Guterres says world staring down the barrel of wider war

• Scepticism remains with U.S. sending more troops to Middle East

• AUD news driven for now, strong support near 0.6900 a key inflection point

• RBA Assistant Governor Kent speaking at debt capital market summit Thur

• Overnight range 0.6945-894, support 0.6900, resistance 0.7250 0.7282
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar rose during a risk-on session on Wednesday, with oil prices easing on hopes for an Iran ceasefire while U.S. shares advanced ahead of quarter-end. Pakistan said it delivered a U.S. proposal to Iran to end the war and Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said Cairo was ready to host any meetings related to de-escalation. Iran is still reviewing a U.S. proposal to end the war, having given an initial negative response due to what it considers to be excessive conditions but not rejecting it outright, a senior Iranian official told Reuters. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Germany is pressing the U.S. and Israel to end the Iran war, while Gulf states had warned Washington that strikes on Iran’s infrastructure would trigger retaliation. In ongoing mixed messaging, Axios reported that the Trump administration has not received any official messages from Iran and the White House spokesperson said Trump is prepared to strike Iran harder if Tehran refuses to accept defeat. Though oil did ease, Iraqi energy officials warned further oil output cuts could follow if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist.

Treasury yields eased slightly after a brief lift from February U.S. import prices rising the most in four years and a soft 5-year auction. The combination of oil-linked USD borrowing demand and quarter-end flows may keep the dollar supported near-term.

Demand picked up for short-dated options covering the end to Trump's 5-day pause on Iran energy-facility strikes even as vols eased out the curve.

EUR/USD extended an overnight slide despite a risk-on backdrop, with a broadly firmer dollar and bearish technicals keeping the pair under pressure below its 21-day moving average near 1.16. GBP/USD edged lower as early gains faded, leaving the pair capped by its 200-DMA and anchored within a broader range despite lingering geopolitical, fiscal and inflation concerns.

AUD/USD fell despite a risk-on backdrop in metals and equities, as broad dollar buying, position-squaring and bearish technical signals kept the pair under pressure.

USD/JPY edged higher toward a potential break of the 157.50–160 range, supported by steady U.S. yields and rising equities, even as intervention risks linger.

Treasury yields fell 4 to 6 basis points with the 2s-10s curve slipping about 2 basis points to +44.1bp.

The S&P 500 rose 0.53%.

WTI oil fell 1.9%.

Gold rose 1.4% and copper gained 1.9%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.36%, USD/JPY +0.43%, GBP/USD -0.37%, AUD/USD -0.63%, =USD +0.43%, EUR/JPY +0.10%, GBP/JPY +0.14%, AUD/JPY -0.17%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

• NY opened near 0.6970 after 0.7003 traded overnight, slide extended in NY

• Pair fell as US$ was bought, US yields sank & USD/CNH rallied to 6.9090

• Rallies in gold, silver and equities did not inspire AUD/USD bulls to charge

• AUD/USD hit 0.6945 then bounced as the US$ softened a bit in the afternoon

• The pair sat near 0.6965 late in the day, it traded down -0.47% in NY's afternoon

• Techs lean bearish; RSIs indicate downward momentum, pair below 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs

• Monthly inverted hammer candle, diverging monthly RSI reinforce bearish signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research discusses the USD outlook amid a potential shift from inflation risk to growth risk.

"We find that a shift towards growth pricing should imply greater outperformance of the safe havens (JPY, CHF, USD) and broad underperformance of high-beta G10 currencies and EM. Ultimately, if inflation risks give way to pronounced growth risks, we anticipate continued USD outperformance against cyclical G10, enhanced safe-haven performance from CHF and JPY versus USD, and a significantly worsening outlook for EM," GS notes.

"Conversely, an unwinding of the recent surge in inflation risk is possible, but more difficult the longer the conflict lasts. Structurally, a more prolonged conflict could alter the global growth backdrop more significantly, meaning that an unwind of inflation risks could be more uneven across regions and reinforce downside growth and FX risks in Asia and Europe," GS adds.

Despite recent volatility, GBP/USD remains anchored near the 1.3400 handle, but also effectively trapped within its recent 1.3250–1.3480 range.

The outlook for GBP/USD suggests continued volatility as traders remain cautious amid evolving Middle East diplomatic efforts and UK inflation and growth concerns.

While headlines regarding a temporary reprieve in energy strikes provided brief support, the pair lacks the clear momentum required to stage a definitive breakout.

Even if geopolitical tensions ease, which would be indicated by a decline in oil prices -- the pound might benefit but face substantial challenges. A diminishing geopolitical risk premium could shift market focus back to the UK's economic fundamentals, including persistent inflation, slow growth, and fiscal concerns, which could impede any significant upward movement.

Technically, risks remain tipped to the downside as sterling remains stuck below its bruised 200-day moving average at 1.3434, despite several tests over the last two weeks.

Above the 200-DMA, resistance can be found at the March 10 high at 1.3481, followed by the 50-DMA at 1.3506. Conversely, support is anchored by the 10-day moving average at 1.3353 and levels just above the March 11 low of 1.3220.

Importantly, speculative positioning may play a crucial role. A recent reduction in GBP net short positions suggests that bearish sentiment could be waning. Should positive developments in the Middle East propel GBP/USD above 1.3544, the 50% Fib of 1.3867-1.3220, bulls may gain momentum for a test of the thinning daily cloud near 1.36.
Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)