• AUD/USD +3.8% ytd, needs to establish above 0.6457-DMA to extend 2025 rally

• CN-U.S. trade deal detail due Mon will impact medium-term AUD trajectory

• Break above 0.6550 would build potential for run towards Sep 30 0.69435 high

• Fragile India/Pakistan ceasefire remains concerning for Asia markets

• U.S. CPI due Tue, AU employment Thur (poll +25.0k jobs, 4.1% unemployment)

• Range early Asia 0.6410-32, support 0.6370 0.6180, resistance 0.6550 0.66875
AUD Daily Resistance Levels & 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• -0.25% after closing +0.45% on the US trade deal with the USD -0.25% Friday

• US, China hail 'constructive' trade talks, details due Monday - risk 'on'

• UK employers remain pessimistic on hiring plans, surveys show - BoE agrees

• UK PM Starmer tightens migration rules, under pressure from Farage

• Charts - 5, 10, & 21-day moving averages coil, momentum studies head lower

• 21-day Bolli bands contract - daily charts show neutral signals at present

• Last week's 1.3402 high, then the 1.3434 2024 high, are the first resistance

• Friday's 1.3213 low then 1.3169, 0.382% of the April rise, initial support

• A close below the 1.3169 Fibo support would be a bearish signal
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

By Rocky Swift

TOKYO, May 12 (Reuters) - The dollar climbed in early Asian trade on Monday after weekend talks between the United States and China eased concerns of a trade war between the world's two biggest economies while global hot spots appeared to cool.

The greenback, Treasuries and equities have taken a beating since sweeping tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump last month shook confidence in American assets. After talks in Geneva, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Sunday said a deal had been reached with China to cut the U.S. trade deficit.

Further details are expected on Monday. Eyes will also be on U.S. earnings and data this week, including consumer price index (CPI) figures on Tuesday, for indications of how much damage the trade spat has done to the economy.

"Early signs from interbank FX trade favour USD longs, certainly vs CHF, JPY and EUR, and we head into US core CPI and retail sales with the wind at the back of the USD," Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said in a note.

"We head into U.S. core CPI and retail sales with the wind at the back of the USD," he added.

India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire over the weekend following the four days of fighting between the nuclear powers that had rattled markets. And Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was ready to meet Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Turkey on Thursday for direct talks, the first since early months of the 2022 invasion.

The dollar index rose 0.2% in early trade in Asia, still down 3.6% from the April 2 announcement of Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs.

The U.S. currency climbed 0.3% to 145.85 yen . New Zealand's kiwi dollar, a common proxy for risk assets, advanced 0.2% to $0.5921.

The euro stood at $1.1226 , down 0.20% so far in Asia. The Australian dollar fetched $0.6424 , up 0.19% in early trade.

(Reporting by Rocky Swift; Editing by Stephen Coates)

• -0.15% with the USD +0.25%, after closing +0.15% with the USD -0.25% Friday

• US, China hail 'constructive' trade talks, details due Monday - risk 'on'

• Zelenskiy and Putin to meet for peace negotiations in Turkey on May 15

• Ukraine and Russia remain worlds apart on expectations, but it is a start

• Positive Geopolitical news should support risk appetite in Asia

• Charts- 21-day Bolli bands expand, 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages slip

• Daily momentum studies ease - last week's dip leaves a modest bearish setup

• 1.1152 0.500% March/April rise, then 1.1053 0.618% are the first supports

• Last week's 1.1380 high, then the 1.1572 2025 high, are the first resistance

• 1.1190/00 1.640BLN, 1.1240 648mln and 1.1250 2526 BLN close Mat 12 strikes
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.2% from Fri's close after weekend China-U.S. trade talks

• CN & U.S. pleased with progress, details to come in joint statement Mon

• Tone will impact AUD trajectory, currently teasing break of 0.6457 200-DMA

• Escalating India/Pakistan instability remains concerning for Asia markets

• U.S. CPI due Tue, AU employment Thur (poll +25.0k jobs, 4.1% unemployment)

• Range early Asia 0.6410-30, support 0.6370 0.6180, resistance 0.6550
AUD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

May 9 (Reuters) - The dollar index fell on Friday, paring a weekly gain as optimism about the U.S trade agreement with the U.K. faded before weekend talks with China. U.S. President Donald Trump said 80% tariffs on Chinese goods "seems right" and called on China to open its markets. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt added later that the United States is not going to unilaterally reduce tariffs. China's central bank said it will spur financial institutions to expand support for consumption and foreign trade amid a protracted trade war with the United States. After Wednesday's policy meeting, a wave of Fed speakers reiterated that the current economic uncertainty calls for monetary policy patience. In data, Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.9% in April, the highest since November, as U.S. tariffs started to hit the export sector.

EUR/USD's ability to hold above a nearby lower Bollinger at 1.1222 after a sharp dollar short squeeze offers hope for euro bulls. Hedging flows and the option bias favors the topside, though a catalyst is lacking. A close above the April 28 high of 1.1424 would be a confidence-booster for euro longs. EUR/CHF rose after Switzerland and the United States agreed to accelerate their trade talks. GBP/USD was orbiting its 21-day moving average at 1.3293, though an impending bearish crossover suggests momentum may start to build. A lower 21-day Bollinger at 1.3141 lends support below 1.32 while YTD high and upper Bollinger at 1.3444 is clear resistance. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said U.S. tariffs have not yet had a 'dramatic' effect on Britain's economy and the central bank should not neglect longer-term domestic pressures that might push up on inflation. More BOE speakers are slated for next week, including Governor Andrew Bailey.

USD/JPY pulled back toward the 145 pivot level due to a broadly weaker dollar before US-China talks. Barring a bullish USD surprise or soft Japanese data, the pair appears set to drift toward the middle of its recent range between 140 and 146. A close above a nearby upper Bollinger at 145.82 would be a bullish development.

Treasury yields were largely unchanged. The 2s-10s curve eased about 1 basis point to +49.8bp.

The S&P 500 rose 0.10% led by a jump in energy shares.

Oil gained 1.87% on hopes of future demand. Trump will visit Saudi Arabia next week.

Gold rose 0.93% as dollar eased while copper gained 0.95%. Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.2%, USD/JPY -0.39%, GBP/USD +0.49%, AUD/USD +0.14%, DXY -0.23%, EUR/JPY -0.19%, GBP/JPY +0.02%, AUD/JPY -0.27%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

• USD/JPY stabilizes at lower end of 144.83-146.18 EBS range

• Volumes muted ahead of weekend talks between China and the U.S.

• Overnight vol stays firm at 8.7% while rest of curve eases

• Fed speakers reiterate wait-and-see policy stance; CPI next week

• Minutes of May 1 BOJ meeting also upcoming

• Pair slips back into 140-146 range, closes near April 3 low

• Some risk of USD/JPY short-covering if closes above upper 21-day Bollinger

• April price congestion and cloud near 149 may limit upside

• Resist: 145.80 upper Bollinger; 146.59 55-DMA; 146.89 61.8% Fibo of Mar-Apr

• Supp: 144.08 conversion line; 144.00 May 7 high; 143.21 21-DMA
Yen

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP$ firm into NorAm cls, +0.58% at 1.3315; Friday range 1.3323-1.3213

• Pair gained steadily throughout the day, regaining 21-Dma at 1.3295, bullish

• BoE cut, UK-U.S. trade deal Thurs boosted volatility; marts cautious pre-China meet

• Sterling mounts comeback as post-trade-deal dollar euphoria ebbs nL6N3RH0J0

• UK gilts a touch higher than USTs; US-UK YE 2025 rates outlooks symmetrical

• GBP$ res 1.3324 the 10-DMA, 1.3402 the May 6 high, 1.3445 2025 high on Apr 28

• Supt 1.3295 rising 10-HMA, 1.3213 Friday's 3-wk low, 1.3178 rising 21-DMA

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

RBC expects continued downside in USD/JPY, forecasting the pair to fall below 120 by the end of 2026. The yen is poised to benefit from its sensitivity to the front end of the US yield curve, and ongoing reductions in FX hedge ratios by global investors.

Key Points:

• Yield Curve Dynamics: The JPY remains highly leveraged to US front-end rates, and as those decline, yen strength is expected to persist.

• Positioning Dynamics: While negative carry still deters speculative short USD/JPY trades, RBC expects the pair to underperform the forward curve over both 2025 and 2026.

• Hedging Behavior: Declining hedge ratios by institutional investors are likely to amplify JPY appreciation pressures over time.

Conclusion:

RBC maintains a bearish medium-term view on USD/JPY, driven by yield compression and evolving investor behavior. Their end-2026 target of 120 reflects confidence in a structural shift favoring JPY strength as the US rate advantage continues to narrow.

May 9 (Reuters) - Given the recent short squeeze in the dollar, there is a sense that positioning in much less of a hurdle for further downside in the dollar -- and upside in EUR/USD -- which should open the door for a fresh leg lower in the greenback. In particular, a hold of 1.1200 in EUR/USD has been seen as a potentially encouraging sign for dollar bears, and this is exactly what occurred overnight. Heading into the weekend, there is an air of optimism surrounding the upcoming U.S.-China trade, in large part due to the rhetoric from the Trump administration. U.S. President, Donald Trump, said that negotiations will be substantive, predicting that the 145% tariff rate will likely come down. Consequently, U.S. equities are not far off recent highs, while the pullback in the dollar remains a shallow one so far. However, this only raises the disappointment risk, particularly as Trump says an 80% tariff on Chinese goods seems right. In turn, risks continue to lean against the dollar going forward, which could take EUR/USD back to 1.14-1.15 in the near-term.
EURUSD hourly chart

(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

Credit Agricole maintains an above-consensus medium-term bullish outlook on the USD, expecting a recovery in H2 2025 and 2026 driven by supportive fiscal policy, easing financial conditions, and sticky inflation. While some investors argue structural headwinds could undermine the dollar, the bank sees these risks as overstated.

Key Points:

• Near-Term Recovery Drivers: Credit Agricole sees a likely US growth rebound in late 2025 and 2026 due to:

  1. Extension of personal income tax cuts

  2. Easing trade tensions

  3. Looser financial conditions

• Fed Outlook: Persistent inflation could limit the scope of rate cuts, supporting USD carry appeal.

• Skepticism on De-Dollarization: While some investors cite Trump’s weak dollar bias and the risk of a “Mar-a-Lago accord” as threats, Credit Agricole sees no credible alternative to the USD as a reserve currency.

• US Policy Messaging: Treasury Secretary Bessent has emphasized a strong USD, and Trump has backed off attacks on Fed independence, both viewed as stabilizing signals.

Conclusion:

Despite ongoing debate around structural risks to the dollar, Credit Agricole sees fundamental strength and policy dynamics as supportive. The USD’s reserve status and yield advantage remain intact, reinforcing the bank’s above-consensus bullish stance for the medium term.

• Cable eyes 1.3300 after rising further from 1.3213 (three-week low in Asia)

• Ascent precedes Bessent/Greer talks with China's trade tsar on Saturday

• Trump says "80% tariff on China seems right. Up to Scott B"

• Resistance levels beyond 1.3300 include 1.3345, 1.3355 and 1.3376

• 1.3345 was Ldn/NY session high Thursday, after BoE's relatively hawkish cut

• Eight of the nine BoE MPC members are due to speak next week

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

According to BofA’s latest FX and Rates Sentiment Survey, short USD is now the highest conviction trade among institutional investors for 2025. Despite this, investors have not significantly rotated out of US duration, suggesting that de-dollarization is being expressed more through FX hedge ratios than actual asset reallocation.

Key Points:

• Top Trade: Short USD ranks as the most confident trade among investors, outpacing long rates.

• No Big Duration Shift: Investors remain near benchmark duration in both US and Europe, highlighting that bearish USD positioning isn’t yet matched by bond allocation shifts.

• Drivers of USD Weakness: Survey participants cite fiscal concerns and policy uncertainty as key contributors to the dollar’s decline.

• EUR Favored: The euro is widely viewed as a primary beneficiary of USD weakness, with strong consensus on long EUR positioning.

Conclusion:

BofA’s survey reinforces the broad institutional bearishness on the dollar, though not yet accompanied by large-scale US bond market exits. Instead, investors are adjusting FX exposure via hedging, with EUR seen as the preferred counterweight to USD weakness.

Synopsis:

ANZ expects fresh gold buying near USD 3,200/oz, despite recent retracement from the USD 3,400/oz high. While easing geopolitical tensions and higher US rate expectations have triggered short-term selling, structural uncertainties and stagflation risks still underpin a bullish long-term outlook.

Key Points:

• Recent Retreat: Gold has pulled back amid profit-taking, following a finalized US-UK trade deal and a reduced expectation of Fed rate cuts (now ~70–80bp vs. 100bp earlier).

• Weaker Haven Demand: Geopolitical de-escalation and signs of potential trade deals are weighing on haven flows. ETF holdings fell 5t month-to-date, and speculative unwinding is ongoing.

• China Market Activity: A surge in trading volumes on China’s gold exchanges suggests increased retail and institutional profit booking.

• Structural Drivers Remain: Despite near-term headwinds, ANZ sees persistent policy uncertainty, stagflation risks, and non-reversal of tariffs as supportive of gold’s longer-term value.

• Technical Outlook: Pullback toward USD 3,200/oz is seen as key support, where new buying is expected to emerge.

Conclusion:

ANZ maintains a constructive stance on gold, viewing the current pullback as a buying opportunity near USD 3,200/oz. While short-term volatility may persist, the macro backdrop still favors gold amid unresolved trade risks and inflationary pressures.

• Cable hits 1.3278 after extending north from 1.3213 (three-week low in Asia)

• 1.3278 = intra-day high. Resistance levels include 1.3300 and 1.3345

• 1.3345 was Ldn/NY session high Thursday, after BoE's relatively hawkish cut

• UK-U.S. trade deal 'good news' but tariffs still higher, BoE Governor says

• The art of the possible: Britain settles for quick win in U.S. trade deal

• GBP bulls hope BoE keeps hogging middle lane when it comes to rate cuts

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of gold miners rise premarket, tracking rise in bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold up 0.3% at $3,326.11/ounce; the metal has gained 2.5% so far this week

• Gold prices are headed for a weekly gain, supported by weaker U.S. dollar and lingering geopolitical tensions, while focus remained on U.S.-China trade talks due this weekend

• Top miner Newmont up ~1%

• South African miners Gold Fields up 1.1%, AngloGold Ashanti up ~3%, Harmony Gold up 3.3% and Sibanye Stillwater up 2.6%

• Canadian miners Agnico Eagle Mines up 1.1% and Kinross Gold up 1.4%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

(Corrects an upside level)

Level Technical Significance

148.54 76.4% Fibo 151.21-139.89

147.90 Daily Cloud Base

147.71 Daily High Apr 10

146.89 61.8% Fibo 151.21-139.89

145.39 ==Update Price==

143.45 Daily Low May 8

142.45 Daily Low May 7

141.97 Daily Low Apr 29

140.00 Psychological Level

Strategy Await Signal

Current Position Flat @ 154.30

Target: Stop:

Open/Close 03-Feb-25

USD/JPY is quite volatile while trading persists below the 146.89 Fibo resistance, a 61.8% retrace of the 151.21-139.89 (March-April) EBS drop. There will likely be a bearish resumption in coming sessions to probe the April 29 141.97 low initially. However, a daily close above the 146.89 Fibo would likely cause a shift in the overall bias back to the upside.

Daily Chart:

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Level Technical Significance

0.6548 61.8% Fibo 0.6943-0.5910

0.6527 Daily High Dec 2 2024

0.6515 2025 High May 7

0.6463 Daily High May 8

0.6405 ==Update Price==

0.6368 Daily Low May 1

0.6357 Daily Low Apr 30

0.6345 Daily Low Apr 24

0.6323 Daily Low Apr 16

Strategy Await Signal

Current Position Flat @ 0.6350

Target: Stop:

Open/Close 03-Apr-25

AUD/USD last week closed above 0.6427 Fibo, 50% retrace of the 0.6943 to 0.5910 (2025 to 2024) drop, but this week it has failed to sustain trading above. A failure to register a second weekly close above 0.6427 hint at a bull trap: set when a market breaks above a tech level then reverses. Spot finds support at 0.6371, under 0.6372 Fibo: a 23.6% of 0.5910-0.6515 (April-May) rise on Friday.

Weekly Chart:


Daily Chart:

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable hit three-week low of 1.3213 in Asia after extending south from 1.3345

• 1.3345 was Thursday's Ldn/NY session high, after relatively hawkish BoE cut

• Stronger USD precedes China-U.S. trade talks in Geneva on Saturday

• U.S. weighs plan to lower China tariffs to as low as 50%, New York Post says

• On Thursday, Trump said China tariffs will come down from 145%

• 1.3251 was GBP/USD high in Asia (1.3250 was pre-BoE rate cut low Thursday)

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD drop to 1.1197 EBS stretched below 1.1214 base of 20-day Bollingers

• Swift transition from overbought in April to oversold in May

• For traders betting on a rise, drop below 1.1250 is a concern

• Breakdown hints at longer consolidation, potentially deeper correction

• Stretched situation may limit the depth of possible further decline

• Enduring trade war may result in bigger gains longer-term

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Adds codes and RICs)

• Traders are betting heavily that EUR/USD rises

• Drop below 1.1250 suggests deeper correction of surge resulting trade war

• Target for minor correction of March-April rise was 1.1252

• Halfway point of 1.1733-1.1573 rally is next target at 1.1153

• Break may encourage traders sitting on $10 bln bullish wager to pare risk

• Trump shakes faith in dollar which suits his plan

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Asia saw USD/JPY and JPY cross attempts to trade higher, roundly rejected

• USD/JPY to 146.18 EBS early, tick above 146.17 NY high, off later to 145.46

• Japanese exporters seen behind sales, also short-run spec long profit-takes

• Market at large still seen short yen, more position-adjusts pre-weekend?

• Differing view on whether current move up just a retracement or new trend

• Sentiment better after US-UK trade deal, optimism on US-China talks too

• Asia bourses mixed today but Nikkei +0.55 @37,478, E-Minis holding @5682

• Massive option expiries at/between 145.00, 145.45-55, 146.00, 146.90-147.00

• Options to help contain spot, relatively firm US yields USD supportive

• JPY crosses also back off from NY/early Asia highs

• EUR/JPY 163.90 to 163.35 EBS, GBP/JPY 193.36-192.52, AUD/JPY 93.43-92.94

• AUD/JPY breaking above descending daily Ichimoku cloud between 91.47-93.17

• Related comment , also , on crosses

• On Japan data/BOJ , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD softens as potential trade deals trigger scale back of USD shorts

• Preliminary U.S./CN talks in Switzerland this weekend will be critical

• DXY near 4-week highs, firming as trade tensions begin to ease

• Escalation of India/Pakistan instability concerning for Asia markets

• AUD pressing the hourly lower Bollinger band, looks oversold short-term

• Range early Asia 0.6381-0.6400, support 0.6370-75 0.6180, resistance 0.6550
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Yen off across the board yesterday on news of US-UK trade deal

• Market eyeing more deals down the road, US-China too? Market sentiment up

• Dollar shorts pared across the board, yen longs too, start of trend?

• USD/JPY eclipsed previous recent high of 145.91 on May 2, to 146.17 o/n

• Asia so far 145.78-146.18 EBS, buoyant, higher on pre-weekend covering?

• But Japanese exporters could be busy at today's Tokyo fix on USD rally

• Pop higher in US rates USD supportive, Treasury 2s @3.870%, 10s @4.376%

• Option expiries today to help contain spot action today?

• 144.60 $599 mln, 145.00 $2.9 bln, 145.45-55 $1.3 bln, 146.00 $1 bln

• Also between 146.90-147.00 strikes total $1.4 bln and 147.50 $306 mln

• Specs seen in conundrum on direction, weekend nigh, more position adjusts?

• Related comments , , ,

• And , also , on US trade ,

• US markets , , ,
USD/JPY:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries into next week:


Yield on US Treasury 10s:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)