• Cable dips to 1.3385 on worse than expected UK retail sales data

• Down 0.4% in Sept vs minus 0.1% forecast. 1.3385 is intra-day low

• Asian session range was 1.3388-1.3407 (pre-UK data)

• There is a big 1.3400 option expiry for the 10am ET New York cut

• 1.3355-1.3418 was Thursday range: 1.3418 is five-week high

• UK Oct flash PMI data due at 0830 GMT; services PMI forecast at 51.8

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/CHF up from early Asia low but still heavy, range 0.8194-0.8218 EBS

• Holds above 0.8193 low yesterday, 0.8184 trough on September 22

• Well above ascending daily Ichimoku cloud between 0.8106-36, 0.8137 100-DMA

• Below 0.8241 100-HMA, descending hourly Ichimoku cloud between 0.8246-47

• Spot also below massive $1.45 bln option expiries today at 0.8245 strike

• EUR/CHF also on heavy side though up from 0.9199 low to 0.9214

• Low yesterday 0.9198, on July 6 0.9191, July 2 trough 0.9178

• Renewed moves to downside possible on renewed EU political-fiscal concerns

• More haven flows into CHF seen possible too on AI stock jitters

• NASDAQ plunged in New York overnight, most Asia bourses off today
USD/CHF:


EUR/CHF:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Australian silver stocks decline on the day, while the broader mining sub-index drops 3.9%

• Silver prices fall in line with gold and palladium prices as surging oil prices and resilient US economic data fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates higher for longer [GOL/]

• Sun Silver shares slip as much as 6.4% to A$0.735, their lowest since July 1

• Silver Mines shares decline as much as 4.8% to A$0.1 in their third straight session of losses

• Diversified miner South32 , the owner of the Cannington silver mine, dips as much as 6.4% to A$4.08, its lowest since July 20

(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Australian miners fall as much as 4.6%, their lowest level since March 25

• Sub-index posts its biggest intraday pct fall since September 11; down 8.4% in the week so far

• Copper prices fell to their lowest in more than five weeks on Thursday as further inflows into London Metal Exchange warehouses eased some supply fears [MET/L]

• Shares of mining behemoths BHP , Rio Tinto , and Fortescue down between 1.6% and 3.9%

• Sub-index down 0.6% YTD, including session's moves

(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)

Oct 23 (Reuters) - A mini perfect storm of a Nikkei selloff, option expiries, exporter sales and BOJ expectations sent USD/JPY down three big figures Thursday - from 158.25 early to 156.69 on EBS by the New York close.

USD/JPY is weakening further in early-Asia trading Friday, falling from 156.82 to 156.08 before steadying. The drop stopped just shy of the base of the 156.05-158.44 daily Ichimoku cloud and 156.00 big figure. No doubt a break below both will cue more downside.

Helping to fuel the decline into Friday has been growing concerns with AI-related stocks. Thursday's 2.6% collapse of NASDAQ reflects this. With Japanese equities also feeling the heat, foreign investors are paring some of their holdings, and unwinding related currency hedges, leading to yen buys.

Also accelerating the USD/JPY slide was paring of positions and gamma-related plays linked to massive option expiries. A total of $3.1 bln between 156.70-97, $9.1 bln on the 157 handle, $8.3 bln between 158.00-75 and $3.3 bln between 159.00-40 expired yesterday.

Holders of yen calls/US dollar puts reaped enormous gains whilst sellers were forced into massive yen purchases. Large option expiries are slated for Friday too, including $2.1 bln between 154.95-155.00 below and $1.5 bln at 157.00 above.

Japanese exporters, for their part, will continue to sell into any USD/JPY rallies to hedge forward receivables as has been the case since the summer .

Expectations are also high for a hawkish hold at the Bank of Japan's October 29-30 meetings . The government will likely argue for no action at this meeting . That said, higher inflation down the line should would make such a move inevitable . Related , also ..

USD/JPY:


Nikkei 225:


BOJ policy rate:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Ewen Chew)

• AUD/USD flat Fri, but remains 1.0% wtd on firming RBA rate hike bets

• Broad risk sentiment under extreme pressure amid rising AI trade worries

• RBA Governor Bullock speech Fri, Assistant Governor Hunter interview Sun

• Futures pricing implies 59.8% chance of Nov 3 RBA hike, up from 29% Tue

• Brent crude -0.2% to $112.96 a barrel, Gold -0.1% to $4,019 per ounce

• AUD needs clean break above 0.7033 100-DMA, next target 0.7075 55-DMA

• Range Asia 0.7012-20 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA


Gold & Brent Crude Oil

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY off 3 big figures yesterday, towards Ichimoku cloud base

• Low yesterday 156.69, more weakness early Asia, 156.82 to 156.11 EBS

• Ichimoku cloud 156.05-158.44 today, base of cloud in spec sights

• 200-DMA left in dust up at 158.55

• USD/JPY now lowest since 155.88 on September 18, some support 156.00 ahead

• With USD/JPY now lower, Japanese exporter likely more active on rallies

• Japanese importers, for their part, could bid their time, buy on at fixes

• Option expiries today 154.95-155.00 $2.1 bln, 156.00 $539 mln

• Above between 156.80-85 $580 mln, 157.00 $1.5 bln, more trail above

• With US yields, JGB-US Treasury rate differentials may have peaked for now

• Related comments , , also ,

• US markets , , ,
USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD slips from highs but remains +0.5% wtd with RBNZ hike looming Wed

• Futures pricing implies 94.9% probability of 25 bps Oct 28 RBNZ hike

• Risk sentiment ebbed Thur: Nasdaq -2.6%, Gold -2.8%, UST yields broadly down

• Brent crude +3.8% to $113 a barrel on lingering Middle East supply concerns

• NZD still clear of 0.5636 21-DMA, extension towards 0.5770 zone seems likely

• Range NZ 0.56825-86, support 0.5566 0.5485, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

MUFG Research discusses its systematic signals framework.

"The current systematic landscape presents a clear directional message - winning strategies retain a broadly bearish G10 bias vs. USD, and that bias is not evenly distributed.

JPY is the standout expression of the view where bearish conviction is unanimous across our strategy families and persistent across all three holding horizons, reflecting a macro environment where the rate differential, valuation gap and risk are all reinforcing the same signal simultaneously," MUFG notes.

"CAD attracts the next broadest bearish conviction, where weak growth, tariff headwinds and an inflation-constrained central bank have created conditions favourable for systematic strategies," MUFG adds.

• AUD/USD +0.3% from Thur 0.69945 low despite broad souring of risk sentiment

• Nasdaq -2.6% amid AI trade concern, Gold -2.8%, UST prices sharply higher

• Brent crude +3.8% to $113 a barrel on Middle East instability risks

• RBA Governor Bullock speech Fri, Assistant Governor Hunter interview Sun

• Futures pricing implies 63.9% chance of Nov 3 RBA hike, up from 29% Tue

• Move driven by RBA Hauser comments that inflation outlook materially worse

• AUD needs clean break above 0.7033 100-DMA, next target 0.7075 55-DMA

• Overnight range 0.69945-0.70235 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar fell against haven currencies on Thursday as concerns over AI sustainability and rising oil prices pressured equities, driving Treasury yields lower on growth fears, while worries over French debt weighed on the euro.

Oil rose as persistent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia heightened supply concerns, while President Donald Trump said Iran was doing all it could to drive oil prices higher ahead of the US midterm elections.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Starlink speeds have yet to be restored in Ukraine and expressed hope for talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in coming days.

SNB minutes signaled less need for FX intervention to restrain Swiss franc strength.

In an effort to quell unrest, French President Emmanuel Macron said that "illegitimate" protests would be banned in coming days.

In North American data, US weekly jobless claims held near a 57-year low, while Canada PPI rose 1.4% annualized in September, highest reading on over 4 years. A number of October PMIs are due on Friday.

The dollar index eased after failing to clear its 21-DMA at 101.85, while implied vols rose across the curve and one-month risk reversals continued to favor USD calls ahead of key central bank meetings and U.S. elections.

EUR/USD pared losses as softer US yields eroded earlier dollar strength, though the outlook remains mixed while holding above 1.1200 but below the 21-DMA at 1.1251.

EUR/CHF fell amid wider French-German yield spreads and after SNB minutes signaled less need for FX intervention to restrain Swiss franc strength.

GBP/USD hit a five-week high at 1.3418 as sharply lower Treasury yields offset early haven-driven dollar demand, while EUR/GBP remained on track for its weakest monthly performance of the year.

AUD/USD rebounded to 0.7020 as softer US yields checked risk-off USD demand, with the pair maintaining a constructive bias above its 10- and 21-DMAs.

USD/JPY remained under pressure below 157 on haven-driven yen demand and sharply lower Treasury yields, with bearish momentum potentially targeting the Sept. 28 and 30 lows at 156.51/38.

Treasury yields tumbled 15-20 basis points. The 2s-10s curve was little changed at +30.1bp.

The S&P 500 slid 1.39%, fueled by weakness in tech shares.

WTI oil rose 2.3% but remained below the $100/bbl mark.

Gold dropped 2.7%, silver hit a new YDT low and copper fell 2.7%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.12%, USD/JPY -0.84%, GBP/USD +0.04%, AUD/USD -0.14%, DXY -0.16%, EUR/JPY -0.94%, GBP/JPY -0.78%, AUD/JPY -0.99%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Clarifies path of sterling in bullet 2)

• GBP$ firm in NY afternoon, +0.06% at 1.3403; Thursday range 1.3418-1.3394

• Pair hit fresh 5-wk high at 1.3418 in Europe session on AI-related USD selling

• UST yield slide picks up momentum in NY afternoon aid GBP rise

• Belly of UST curve down 18bp (3-10-yr); global yields follow suit relieving fiscal concerns

• GBP$ res 1.3418 Thursday high, 1.3433 flat 200-DMA, 1.3470s upcoming daily cloud twist

• Supt 1.3389 bruised 100-DMA, 1.3355 Thursday daily low, 1.3297 rising 10-DMA

• October 28 UK Autumn Budget and Fed rate decision in focus for BoE, Fed policy clues

Sterling Chart:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research previews next week's ECB October policy meeting.

"We do not expect the ECB to hike in October; we expect it to hike in December to 2.75% and in March 2027 to 3.00%, as we explained in our previous paper," CACIB notes.

"The ECB will very likely remain non-committal, in a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting mode. In this context, the market action could be highly uncertain, as it was at the September press conference. However, the recent pricing seems more reasonable than it used to be. 

The topic of France will likely be discussed during the Q&A. We expect Christine Lagarde to be ready to answer questions in a way that will avoid rattling markets," CACIB adds.

• NY opened near 0.7010 after 0.7036 traded overnight, the drop then extended

• USD buying, firm US yields & gold, stocks drops weighed on the pair

• Copper, silver drops reinforced risk-off sentiment, AUD/USD hit 0.6995

• The pair's fall halted. buying then emerged as the dollar, yields moved downward

• AUD/USD sat near 0.7220 in NY's afternoon, traded down only -0.14%

• Daily, monthly bull hammers, hold above 10- & 21-DMAs are bull signals

• Rising monthly RSI, bull pennant on monthly chart add to bull signals
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research discusses EUR/USD technical outlook.

"EUR/USD remains technically weak, trading around 1.12 and well below its major moving averages. However, downside momentum is easing. The RSI has recovered to 36 after moving into oversold territory, while MACD is beginning to flatten," ANZ notes.

'"We would therefore be cautious about chasing the pair lower at current levels. We see initial support at 1.115 and next at 1.11, with resistance at 1.13 and 1.14," ANZ adds.

• Trend indicators like the RSI shows EUR/GBP is deeply oversold

• German-French spreads are at fresh highs, so the cross can still get more oversold

• French risks are not going away, instead, they are growing

• Oversold readings caution against chasing the cross low

• But with EUR sentiment worsening, there is little appetite for a rebound

• Initial support remains at 0.8356, followed by 0.8333
EURGBP vs spread

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Danske Research revises its EUR/USD rolling targets.

"Macro data continues to suggest that AI-related investments remain a key driver of global final demand growth. Reflecting this, US leading indicators shifted generally higher in September, while European data cooled modestly. Tighter financial conditions and higher energy prices pose a downside risk to growth, which we see relatively more pronounced for the euro area. Inflation exceeded expectations on both sides of the Atlantic in September, but we see a relatively higher risk of underlying inflation picking up in the US. Altogether, we continue to see relative macro as a negative driver for EUR/USD," Danske notes.

"We still think the fundamental drivers for further decline remain in place. Stronger domestic demand in the US, relative monetary policy outlook and elevated energy prices all favour lower EUR/USD over the coming year. We lower the 6-12M target to 1.10," Danske adds.

Bank of America Global Research arues that Equity breadth matters for USD controlling for level and rates.

"The S&P 500 has been largely rangebound since August but far more ink has been spilled on the decline in market breadth. Poor equity breadth has connotations for the durability of the risk rally but may also matter for the broader direction of the US dollar," BofA notes.

"Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2 show loose correlation between the DXY index and measures of equity breadth. A narrow rally - a smaller proportion of stocks trading above 200dma and/or the underperformance of an equally-weighted S&P 500 index - is often associated with a stronger USD," BofA adds.

• EUR/USD resilient despite fresh highs in oil and the Bund-OAT spread

• This reinforces the view that bearish EUR trades are better expressed on the crosses (CHF, JPY)

• Dollar struggling on a softer tone in AI/tech names. Positioning has also been a problem

• Plenty of competing narratives - geopolitics, AI, French stress - keeping USD conviction low

• EUR/CHF is cleanly through the 200-day MA (0.9238). A closing below will embolden sellers

• Initial support is at 0.9215, which has been tested. Further cushion sits at 0.9180

• SNB minutes signalled less need to intervene in FX. That paves way for deeper pullback in EUR/CHF

• Bund-OAT spread remains the real-time indicator for the cross

• At fresh highs, this will keep EUR/CHF on the backfoot
EURCHF daily

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• Cryptocurrency and blockchain-related firms slide in premarket trading

• Bitcoin , the world's biggest cryptocurrency, slides 3.15% to $81,974.01 after climbing for three straight sessions

• Ether down 3.33% at $2,408.48

• Crypto exchange Coinbase Global declines 3.8%

• Crypto miners: Riot Platforms Inc , MARA Holdings , Hut 8 and Bit Digital down 3% to 5%

• BTC buyer Strategy slides 5.4%, among the biggest decliners

• BTC mining machine maker Canaan Inc down 3.4%

• ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF loses 3.2%

• iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF down 3.1%

• Bitcoin remains down over 6% YTD, while ether has fallen roughly 19.2%

(Reporting by Jayasree Prabhu)

• French 10-year bond yield rises to 5.09%

• French yield above US 10-yr for first time since 2013

• Brent crude oil climbs above $112 per barrel

• EUR/USD remarkably stable 1.1227-1.1255 on Oct 22

• Oct 14 low 1.1113 when French bonds less stressed, oil lower

• Roles of Japan's dual purpose currency are changing and that's worrying

• EUR/USD traders may act differently under truly risk averse conditions

•
EURUSD French bonds and oil

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY's slide from 158.00 met strong demand after basing at 156.83 on Thursday - possibly option related

• A massive $2.8 billion 156.90-157.00 FX option strikes expire at the 10-am New York cut (14GMT) Thursday

• Related hedging flows are likely to be limiting deeper declines ahead of the expiry time, more 157s expire Friday

• Implied volatility surged as USD/JPY fell - 1-month from 7.15 to 7.65, but has been trading 7.6-7.55 as spot settles

• Risk reversals increase JPY call over put premiums - 2-week paid 2.2 and 1-month regains 2.0 from 1.9 JPY calls

• Dealers also report a pick up in downside strike demand, so traders more wary of any deeper FX declines

• Related comment - October Fed flashes on FX options radar
JPY option expiry strikes

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Limited and familiar USD/JPY ranges around 158.00 pressed FX option implied vols lower this week

• Range-bound spot favoured option sellers with actual/realised volatility being well below implied levels

• However, risk reversals held a firm downside strikes premium - recognising the most vulnerable side of the market

• Thursday's spot drop to mid Oct lows toward 157.00 appears to have caused some panic demand for options

• Benchmark 1-month expiry implied volatility paid 7.65 from 7.15, with some sub 157.00 strikes paid, too

• Huge FX option strike expiries surround USD/JPY in low 157's - related hedging flows may limit deeper spot decline
USD/JPY FXO implied volatility

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY continuing lower in late Asia trading, from 158.33 in New York

• Asia from 158.25 early to 157.33 EBS, through 157.46/55 lows Oct 5/15

• Towards 157.00 and 156.96 low on October 2

• Seems total $9.1 bln in option expiries today on 157 having little impact

• Another $3.1 bln below between 156.70-97 strikes

• Dealers unsure what's behind today's Asia PM move down, exporters?

• Some cite flows, perhaps from Japanese investors, others say long-paring

• Option gamma plays also cited with spot now below mega-expiries today

• Whatever the case, USD/JPY moving deeper into 155.64-158.44 daily Ichi cloud

• Related comments , , , also
USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)