• NY opened near 1.1795 after 1.1772 traded overnight, pair rallied in early trading

• Riskier assets rallied sharply on comments from President Trump and Iran

• Oil, USD, US yields & USD/CNH all traded lower as risk-on sentiment took hold

• Gold, silver, and stocks rallied to add to the bid for riskier assets

• EUR/USD hit a 2-monht high of 1.1849, selling then took hold as risk softened

• Comments from an Iranian source drove buying of oil, USD & firmed up yields

• Stocks, gold, silver gave back some gains as investors play it safe into the weekend

• EUR/USD erased early NY gains, sat near 1.1790, traded up only +0.07% late in the day

• Daily inverted hammer formed, daily RSI didn't confirm the high, are concerns for bulls
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP$ held a slight gain in NY session, +0.15% at 1.3550; NorAm range 1.3599-20

• Pair rallied to 1.3599 early in NorAm on upbeat Mideast news, opening of Hormuz

• Resistance held ahead of 1.3600, fourth consecutive attempt failed to breach

• Pair unwilling to consolidate gains above the daily cloud top (1.3544)

• Other markets, oil, bonds, equities maintain frothy peace-related moves

• GBP$ res 1.3599 Friday high, 1.3661 Feb 16 daily high, 1.3694 upper 30-w Bolli

• Supt 1.3542 NorAm afternoon low, 1.3505 Friday low, 1.3495- 23.6% of 1.3160-1.3599

Sterling Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Corrects typo in line 6)

• NY opened near 0.7170 after AUD/USD hit 0.7152 overnight, sharp rally then took hold

• Comments from Pres. Trump & Iran sank USD, US yields , oil

• USD/CNH turned down while gold, silver, copper and stocks attracted many buyers

• AUD/USD hit a fresh 46-month high of 0.7222, sellers emerged as USD firmed, risk softened

• Comments from an Iranian source drove investors to take some profits into the weekend

• AUD/USD sat near 0.7185 late in the day, the pair was up +0.31% in NY's afternoon

• Rising RSIs are bullish but long upper wick on daily candle may be a concern for bulls
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan Research likes EUR/GBP upside in the near-term.

"Another crisis on Starmer's hands following a Guardian article which detailed how Mandelson's failed vetting was overruled by the Foreign Office, triggering a drop in gilts and sterling. Will this be the thing that finally de-thrones Starmer? During the last saga, also regarding Mandelson's appointment, we saw very little appetite from potential challengers to take the reins of Labour ahead of the May elections," JPM notes.

"We know that political flare-ups don't weigh on the pound for long, but happy to ride EURGBP higher for now as the story is pretty fresh and adds to the list of woes the UK is facing," JPM adds.

(Updates)

• Shares of silver miners rise, tracking prices of the white metal [GOL/]

• Spot silver last up 3.8% at $81.41 per ounce

• Prices rise due to softer dollar and comments from Iran's foreign minister that passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains open during the ceasefire

• Shares of miners Hecla and Coeur both up ~5%

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver and Silvercorp Metals advance 6.6% and 4.5%, respectively

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust both inch up 4.3%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

Goldman Sachs Research updates its RBA call.

"The positive Australian macro outlook for 2026 we presented before the war in Iran continues to be undermined by the surge in fuel prices, rising interest rates, and related cost-of-living pressures. In year-over-year terms, our end-2026 forecasts for GDP and inflation stand at 1.3% yoy (down from 2.2% yoy pre-war) and 3.9%yoy (up from 3.0%yoy pre-war) respectively. The global supply shock has knocked the RBA further off its strategy to walk a benign "narrow path" that "preserves gains in the labour market"," GS notes.

"The geopolitical and macro outlook remains highly uncertain, but we now expect the RBA to raise the policy rate 25bp in May and June to 4.60% (prior: May +25bp to 4.35%), pushing our subjective estimate of the odds of a recession over the next 12 months to 25%," GS adds.

• Shares of gold miners rise, tracking prices of the bullion [GOL/]

• Spot gold up 1.2% at $4,846.28 per ounce, headed for a fourth consecutive weekly gain

• Prices rise as dollar weakens and Iran’s foreign minister says passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains open during the ceasefire

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining up 1.3% and 2.4% respectively

• U.S.-listed shares of South African miners: Gold Fields

up 4.8%, AngloGold Ashanti rises 3.6% and Harmony Gold gains 6.7%

• Canadian miner Kinross Gold gains 1.3%

(Reporting by Pranav Mathur in Bengaluru)

ANZ Research provides a summary of its views and targets for AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY.

RBC Research discusses EUR/USD near-term outlook.

"EUR/USD bottomed in the early weeks of the Iran conflict, despite the US dollar continuing to rally to a YTD high on March 30. Flows, not fundamentals, were behind the ‘early’ start to EUR/USD’s rally in March," RBC notes.

"At current spot (~1.18), we think most of the Iran conflict premium has been taken out. The near-term outlook is likely one of range-trading for EUR/USD (1.1400/50 to 1.1930), with the asymmetric risk to the upside in the medium-term," RBC adds.

• AUD/USD held a tight range overnight, traded 0.7152-0.7182, NY opened near 0.7170

• The pair was up +0.10% & held within Thursday's daily range, suggests consolidation

• Drop in oil , rally in equities , silver

helped buoy the pair

• Techs lean bullish; pair holds above daily cloud and a slew of daily MAs

• Rising monthly RSI, pair's hold above 120-month MA reinforce bullish tech signals

• Remarks from Fed's Daly, Barkin, Waller may impact risk during NY trading
AUD/USD daily chart:


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable elicited support pre-1.3500 after pound dipped on UK political news

• PM Starmer pleads ignorance over Mandelson, resists pressure to resign

• 1.3500 is a former resistance level. 1.3505 was early London three-day low

• Rally from 1.3505 topped out by 1.3540 (Wednesday's low was 1.3545)

• 1.3595 was two-month peak Thursday. Trump says Iran war should end "soon"

• Warsh confirmation hearing on April 21. UK local elections on May 7

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

EUR/USD traders may have overreacted to the recent energy shock, which pales in comparison to the surge during the war in Ukraine, when gas prices rose by 277 euros ($326.42) versus a 37-euro increase during the current Middle East conflict.

In 2022, EUR/USD slumped from around 1.15 toward 0.95 as a $9 billion net-long bet flipped to a $5 billion net-short position.

In 2026, EUR/USD fell from about 1.18 toward 1.14 as traders unwound a $27 billion long position and built a $1 billion short.

EUR/USD has since recovered the ground lost during the conflict and gas is roughly 12 euros more expensive than it was before the war.

While some additional inflation is still in the pipeline, there is significant upside potential for the euro, especially now that it has been freed from the heavy burden of prior bullish positioning.
EURUSD gas prices and euro betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

April 17 (Reuters) - The pound could take a big hit if Keir Starmer resigns as Britain's prime minister following a row over the security vetting of Peter Mandelson, his former ambassador to the United States.

Starmer on Friday faced renewed calls from his political opponents to resign after it emerged that Mandelson failed security vetting but was still allowed to take up the job. Senior minister Darren Jones told LBC that Starmer would update parliament on Monday.

The renewed controversy comes ahead of Welsh and Scottish parliament elections and local English elections on May 7, in which Starmer's Labour Party is expected to perform very poorly. The growing pressure has weighed on the pound, with GBP/USD dropping to threaten 1.35 and GBP/EUR falling to a four-day low of 1.1468 on Friday.

If Starmer were to leave Downing Street, cable could drop towards 1.30, a level it last threatened in November.
GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Although many traders have lost faith and dumped euros to build short positions, EUR/USD remains in a solid uptrend that was refreshed by the modest correction during the Middle East conflict.

Without the drag from the previously huge long positioning - which helped prevent EUR/USD from sustaining a rally above 1.20 - there is a stronger case for the uptrend to extend beyond 1.2084.

The correction that led traders to unwind a $27 billion bullish wager, the second largest on record, was small. The drop from 1.2084 to 1.1409 fell short of the 38.2% retracement of the rise from 1.0125 in February 2025 to 1.2084 in January 2026, which sits at 1.1336.

The major EUR/USD advance unfolded amid an unresolved trade war, while the smaller pullback stemmed from the Middle East conflict and has been largely reversed by the rebound to 1.1823 during a ceasefire. While the conflict is likely the key driver for traders at the moment, many have already positioned for it by going short. An escalation could deliver the decline they anticipate, but they are betting against a trend that is not only intact but also refreshed by a corrective move that may set the stage for further gains.

Absent an escalation, the EUR/USD uptrend is likely to continue and if there is peace, the pair could rise rapidly.
EURUSD and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable falls to 1.3508 as UK political news weighs on the pound

• UK PM Starmer under new pressure over Mandelson appointment

• 1.3508 is the lowest level since Tuesday (1.3501 was the low that day)

• Asian session high was 1.3535 (Wednesday's low was 1.3545)

• 1.3595 was Thursday's two-month peak (scaled in Asia)

• Trump says Iran war "should be ending pretty soon"

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/INR down 0.5% at 92.69, on course for steepest intraday fall since April 2

• Traders point to Reuters reports on RBI urging state-run oil refiners to curb spot dollar purchases, halt in banks' gold and silver imports amid delay in government order

• Banker says bullion import linked USD demand down substantially on Fri

• Another banker says the reports have strengthened downward bias on USD/INR in a market anyway shy to take on USD/INR longs following earlier regulatory curbs

• It seems to be a day of INR appreciation, which could carry over into next week, depending on Middle East developments, a second banker adds

• Dollar index steady at 98.2; Asian currencies rangebound

• For more, click on [FXBUZ]
(Reporting by Jaspreet Kalra)

• AUD/USD up 1.3% wtd as hopes for a Middle East peace deal build

• Futures imply a 76% chance of an RBA rate hike in May

• Interim U.S.-Iran deal ahead of ceasefire deadline seen as positive

• Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire boosts hopes for U.S.-Iran talks

• AUD stays firm, targeting the 0.72825 high from May 2022

• U.S. Mar retail sales due Tue; Apr S&P flash PMIs due Thu

• Range Asia 0.71521-65, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD -0.1% Fri in Asia as post-Apr 6 uptrend struggles to hold

• Upbeat pre-war data gives minimal uplift, energy price shock risks remain

• Break below 1.3500 may spur further slide towards 1.3444 55-DMA

• Israel-Lebanon enters 10-day ceasefire, improves chances of U.S.-Iran talks

• Rising speculation of interim Iran deal to prevent further hostilities

• U.K. flash PMIs, jobs, inflation & retail sales updates all due next week

• U.S. Mar retail sales due Tue, Apr S&P flash PMIs Thur

• Range Asia 1.35149-35, support 1.3160 1.3040, resistance 1.3867 1.4250
GBP Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD flat Fri as seemingly positive Middle East developments persist

• Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire begins, provides runway for U.S.-Iran talks

• Chances rising for interim Iran deal to circumvent reignition of hostilities

• AUD target 0.72825, hawkish RBA will provide assistance as May hike firms

• Fed President Williams underscores Iran war inflation concerns

• U.S. Mar retail sales due Tue, Apr S&P flash PMIs Thur

• Range Asia 0.71521-65, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY slid to 158.27 EBS yesterday but has since rebounded to 159.31

• Asia so far 159.05-26, tad better bid on caution ahead of weekend

• Hopes still for progress in Middle East talks but nothing assured

• USD/JPY back above descending hourly Ichimoku cloud between 158.91-159.03

• In area of 100 and 200-HMAs at 159.14 and 159.12, respectively

• Some option expiries in area today, $665 mln between 158.95-159.20

• Could exert some gravitational pull, help contain spot action

• Japanese importer buys eyed again at Tokyo fix, exporters 159.30+?

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials in stasis just above recent lows

• This despite fading expectations of a BOJ hike this month, focus now on June

• Japan FX intervention still possible given recent MOF jaw-boning efforts

• Totan Research/ICAP April hike probability off to 20%, June up to 58%

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on Middle East ,

• US markets , , ,

• On BOJ Ueda/MOF Katayama G7 talk ,

• On Fed , , US data
USD/JPY:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD -0.5% from Thur 0.59225 high as USD index breaks 8-day losing streak

• NZ Mar electronic card retail sales +0.7% m/m, +2.7% versus Mar 2025

• NZ Q1 CPI due Tue will provide critical insight for RBNZ expectations

• Trump says Israel & Lebanon will cease hostilities for 10-days

• Fed President Williams flags Iran war inflation concerns

• Range NZ 0.5888-91, support 0.5680 0.5580, resistance 0.5964 0.6012
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Danske Research discusses EUR/GBP medium-term outlook.

"EUR/GBP remains remarkably sticky around the 0.87 mark after rebounding since the beginning of April. EUR/GBP has been caught between two opposing forces since the onset of the war in the Middle East. On the one hand, the poor risk sentiment has put upside pressure on the cross amplified by a worsening outlook for the UK economy. This is only amplified by the recent repricing of the Bank of England, where markets have gone from pricing two cuts by YE to now two hikes. Given the weakness in the economy, especially in the labour market, this highlights the more stagflationary tendencies. This has also been reflected in the recent spread widening to Germany, where Gilts have been one of the big underperformers. On the other hand, while the UK is still a net-energy importer akin to the euro area, the energy mix in the UK slightly favours a relatively stronger GBP vs EUR. This has benefited GBP vs EUR," Danske notes.

"If further ceasefire talks prove effective, we expect the focus to return to fundamentals. We think the relative growth outlook favours a move higher in EUR/GBP and expect markets to scale back on BoE pricing of hikes. We expect the BoE to remain on hold for the remainder of the year," Danske adds.

• AUD/USD -0.5% from Thur 0.7197 46-month high, but remains bid overall

• Futures imply RBA May rate hike probability approaching 80%

• Hawkish RBA likely to inspire AUD move towards 0.72825 target

• Trump says Israel & Lebanon have agreed 10-day ceasefire

• Fed President Williams underscores Iran war inflation concerns

• Overnight range 0.7152-905, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7283
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar snapped an eight-day losing streak on Thursday, rising with yields and oil as doubts lingered about the possibility of U.S.–Iran talks quickly easing Hormuz disruptions. U.S. and Iranian negotiators are now pivoting toward a temporary memorandum instead of a comprehensive deal according to Reuters sources, while Bloomberg reported that Gulf and European officials see the U.S. needing about six months to clinch an Iran deal. U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran has offered to forgo nuclear weapons for over 20 years, that a new meeting could take place this weekend, and that he is unsure that the ceasefire with Iran needs to be extended. Trump also announced that Lebanon and Israel had agreed on a 10-day ceasefire. In U.S. data, weekly jobless claims declined, while the Philadelphia Fed’s April index beat expectations, pointing to rising new orders along with price pressures. New York Fed President John Williams said the Middle East war is adding to inflation pressures, while heightened uncertainty limits guidance. Dovish Fed Governor Stephen Miran said cooling inflation allows scope for roughly three rate cuts this year, though he warned price pressures were worsening before the war. The German government halved its growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5%. European Central Bank policymakers were wary of raising interest rates prematurely when they met last month.

The dollar index rebounded after an eight-day drop to its lower 20-day Bollinger, while volatility ticked higher as the equity risk rally slowed.

EUR/USD pulled back from a two-month high of 1.1823 on broad dollar buying and firmer U.S. yields, with bearish daily signals and resistance near 1.1800 highlighting downside risks.

GBP/USD hovered near session lows as resistance ahead of 1.36 held firm, with bears brushing off upbeat UK GDP data amid concerns over sticky inflation even as the pair stayed near two-month highs.

AUD/USD eased after hitting a 46-month high, with bearish daily signals pointing to scope for a corrective pullback despite supportive longer-term trends.

USD/JPY held modest gains as oil, the dollar index and yields edged higher, sitting near its 21-day moving average after rebounding above 158.50, though widening bearish risk reversals point to capped upside. Treasury yields were 1 to 4 basis points higher as the curve steepened. The 2s-10s curve was up about 1 basis point to +52.8bp.

The S&P 500 rose 0.16%.

WTI oil rose 3% amid supply worries.

Gold was little changed while copper eased 0.3%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.15%, USD/JPY +0.14%, GBP/USD -0.19%, AUD/USD -0.14%, DXY +0.15%, EUR/JPY -0.02%, GBP/JPY -0.08%, AUD/JPY -0.01%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)