• Shares of gold miners fall, tracking lower prices of the yellow metal [GOL/]

• Spot gold falls 1.8% to $4,566.26 per ounce

• Gold prices fall as the dollar strengthens after reports that the U.S. will deploy thousands of additional troops in the Middle East, further fanning concerns of higher oil prices, inflation, and with it, elevated interest rates

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining down ~3% and 2.6%, respectively

• South African miners also gain: Gold Fields

dips 4% and Sibanye Stillwater falls 1.2%

• Canadian miners Agnico Eagle Mines and Kinross Gold slips 3% and 3.6%, respectively
(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

ANZ Research changes its Fed call.

"We are pushing back the timing of when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will resume cutting interest rates to September this year from June.

We maintain our view that the FOMC will cut rates by an additional 75bp in this protracted easing cycle," ANZ notes.

"We have pencilled in one 25bp cut each in Q3 and Q4 2026 and in Q1 2027," ANZ adds.

• EUR/GBP holding the 0.86 handle as consolidation continues

• Bulls to take comfort from the fact that the cross is sticky above 0.86

• Both ECB and BoE were hawkish, leaning into renewed inflation risks

• But neither central bank rhetoric is a clear positive for their respective currency

• That said, all this points to an increasingly negative setup for risk assets

• GBP carries higher risk beta vs EUR, so an equity sell-off should underpin EUR/GBP
Euro and GBP spx beta


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Credit Agricole CIB Research maintains a bearish bias on EUR/USD throughout the remainder of 2026.

"EUR/USD has fallen by c.3% since the start of the war in Iran and the rally in global energy prices as well as the spike in risk aversion that it triggered. FX investors worry that the war could lead to a negative commodity terms-of-trade supply shock that would hurt the Eurozone economy more than the US," CACIB notes.

"The latest developments corroborate our bearish view on EUR/USD from here and we continue to forecast the pair to hit 1.10 by Q426 before rising to 1.17 by Q427," CACIB adds.

Goldman Sachs Research summarizes its outlook for oil prices.

"Our short-term views remain that 1) oil prices will likely continue to trend higher while Hormuz flows very remain low, 2) Brent is likely to exceed its 2008 all time high if depressed flows keep the market focused on the risk of lengthier disruptions, and 3) any rise in market perceived risks of US export restrictions is likely to widen the Brent-WTI price gap further," GS notes.

"Our scenario analysis suggests that the risks to oil prices remain skewed to the upside on net both in the near-term and in 2027. The persistence of several prior large supply shocks underscores the risk that oil prices may stay above $100 for longer in risk scenarios with lengthier disruptions and large persistent supply losses," GS adds.

• AUD/USD rallied to 0.7097 ovenright, sellers emerged as US$ buying emerged

• USD/CNH erased losses made in Asia, turned positive the traded 6.9000

• Gold, silver, copper and equities traded downwrd to reinforce the US$ buying

• AUD/USD hit 0.7054 then bounced, NY opened near 0.7065, pair was down -0.32%

• The pair continues to trade within its range in place since March 13

• Price action indicates right shoulder of a head & shoulder top forming; a bear sign

• Monthly doji candle, diverging monthly RSI reinforce the bearish tech signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• 200-day MA (1.3436) caps topside, failure to close above keep bears in control

• Post-BoE bounce fading fast, hawkish BoE still a net GBP negative

• UK 10s hovering at 4.90%, 2025 high at 4.92%, break here risks reigniting fiscal angst

• Geo noise not going away, weekend risk hedging will likely weigh on GBP

• Oil is still the key macro driver with no credible signs of de-escalation

• Support at 1.3290 (pre-BoE level), clean break would open up 1.32
GBPUSD daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

March 20 (Reuters) - Where USD/JPY, which has lost significant ground this week, closes on Friday will be key for its direction in the short term. On Thursday, theBank of Japan left the door open to a hike as soon as April, wrongfooting investors who had bet on a further slide in the yen - and helping to lift the currency. USD/JPY saw a significant drop to close on Thursday below the key 158.11 Fibonacci level, which represents the 23.6% retracement of the February-to-March EBS rise from 152.28 to 159.90. The close beneath this level is an early warning sign that the pair's uptrend may be coming to an end. Should USD/JPY register another close below 158.11 on Friday, it would serve as a strong technical signal of further losses next week. However, a failure to finish the week below 158.11 could lead to a recovery that could test the 160 psychological level.

The 30- and 60-day log correlation coefficients between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are both above +0.50, meaning that the two currency pairs would likely move in tandem with each other.
Daily Chart


Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Yen strengthened on Thursday after the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged

• USD/JPY saw a big drop to finish Thursday under the 158.11 Fibo

• 158.11 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 152.28 to 159.90 (February to March) EBS rise

• BOJ left the door open to a hike in April, wrongfooting traders who bet on a yen slide

• USD/JPY has seen a 157.62-158.45 range on Friday, according to EBS data

• Another close on Friday below the 158.11 Fibo would signal further losses next week

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD staged strong recovery as USD slipped and EUR gained after Thurs Cen-Bank meetings

• Peaked 1.1616 from 1.1443 and consolidates in tighter 1.1553-94 range so far on Friday

• 21-daily moving average 1.1634 is initial resistance before key 200-100 dma's 1.1678-90

• Implied volatility eased as EUR/USD recovered, which slightly lowers the cost of FX options

• Benchmark 1-month expiry rallied 7.4 to 8.2 Wed-Thurs and now 7.7 (6.0-9.0 range since Iran war)

• Other dates ease too, but price action shows market still wary of more volatility/fresh USD gains

• Risk reversals ease but retain a strong volatility premium for downside over upside strikes

• 1-month 25 delta peaked 1.7 EUR puts over calls last week and now 1.0, from 0.25 EUR calls late Feb
EUR=EBS


EUR/USD FXO implied volatility


EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY up 0.35% in thin Asia trade; Japanese holiday saps liquidity

• Opened at 157.68, drifted higher with sellers absent after Thu's sharp drop

• Downside limited as Israel launches a fresh wave of attacks on Iran on Fri

• Intervention fears near 160.00 likely to keep USD rallies in check

• Support: 157.56 21-DMA, 157.25-30, resistance 158.50-55, 159.00

• Asia range 157.62-158.35
A duel with the Bank of Japan:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +1.5% wtd as hawkish RBA partially insulates from commodity troubles

• Futures markets implying 56% probability of yet another RBA OCR hike in May

• Efforts to contain energy prices gaining momentum, but anxiety lingers

• U.S.-Israel to avoid further energy facility attacks, Iran will not tolerate

• AU monthly CPI Feb update due Wed, impactful for RBA OCR expectations

• Range Asia 0.7075-92, support 0.6900, resistance 0.7250 0.7282
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD down 0.1% in Asia after closing 1.3% higher on Thu on hawkish BoE

• Inflation fears from energy shocks drive UK gilt yields higher

• UK 2-yr yield up 38 bps; biggest daily rise since Liz Truss's 2022 debacle

• Traders price in two BoE rate hikes by year-end, had expected a cut in Mar

• Resistance 1.3867, 38.2% of Jan-Mar drop, 1.3481 Mar 10 high

• Support 1.3370-80, 1.3340-45; range Thu 1.3247-1.34665, Asia 1.3413-1.3439
GBP

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD -0.2% Fri as traders weigh global inflation & more hawkish Fed

• U.S.-Israel to avoid further energy facility attacks, Iran says no tolerance

• Energy supply anxiety slightly abates as efforts to contain prices ramp up

• ECB keeps policy rates on hold, flags inflation concern, DXY pushes lower

• Euro zone Jan total trade balance due Fri, prior 11.6 bln surplus

• Risk of break below major 1.1390-1.1410 support recedes for now

• Range Asia 1.1566-9425, support 1.1409 1.1392, resistance 1.1667 1.2084
EUR Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold miners fall as much as 4% to their lowest since November 4, 2025

• Bullion prices declined for seventh consecutive session on Thursday as Middle East conflict raised energy prices, ignited inflation concerns [GOL/]

• Gold miner Evolution Mining and Ramelius Resources drop as much as 4.1% and 3.6%, respectively

• AXGD down 16.7% YTD

(Reporting by Keshav Singh Chundawat in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY up 0.1% in Asia after declining 1.35% on Thursday

• Weighed down by broadly weaker dollar as major central banks turn hawkish

• Central bankers on alert for inflation surge as energy prices soar

• Intervention fears near 160.00 likely to keep USD rallies in check

• Support: 157.56 21-DMA, 157.25-30, resistance 158.50-55, 159.00

• Japanese markets closed Fri; range Asia 157.62-157.99, Thu 157.51-159.865
A duel with the Bank of Japan:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD +1.5% from Thur 0.5787 low as oil price fear abates slightly

• NZD downtrend intact, 0.5918 55-DMA an inflection point, should hold for now

• Energy supply fears remain elevated despite oil retreating from Thur highs

• U.S.-Israel to avoid energy facility attacks as Iran states zero tolerance

• NZ Feb balance of trade -257.0 mln (month), 3.0 bln deficit (annual)

• BoE & ECB hold policy rates steady, flag inflation concern pushing DXY down

• Range NZ 0.5848-91, support 0.5710 0.5580, resistance 0.5918 0.6092 0.6120
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Bank of America Global Research discusses the USD outlook and maintains a bearish view over the medium-term.

"The USD has unsurprisingly appreciated vs. other G10 currencies since the with Iran began, though the net moves have not been extreme. And until the end-game becomes much clearer, oil prices and headline risks should continue to set the pace for FX. In the meantime, central bank's have been repriced higher across most of the G10, which has (at most) served to mitigate some of the USD's appreciation," BofA notes.

While relative rates have not been a major driver of FX during this time, this could change as the real economic impacts of the war start to show up. While we still maintain a more bearish longer-term USD view, upside risks will likely prevail as the war drags on," BofA adds.

• AUD/USD +0.9% late Thur amid slight reprieve in oil price panic

• Brent crude near flat on the day after falling 9.7% from Thur $119.13 high

• Trump tells Israel not to hit energy facilities, not sending more troops

• BoE & ECB hold policy rates steady, flag inflation concern pushing DXY down

• U.S. markets recalibrating less dovish Fed, potential for higher FFR pathway

• AUD pushing upper hourly Bollinger band, topside constrained short term

• AU monthly CPI Feb update due Wed, will be heavily scrutinized

• Overnight range 0.7000-0.7109, support 0.6900, resistance 0.7250 0.7282
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP$ firm in NY afternoon trade, +1.1% at 1.3402; Thursday range 1.3409-1.3247

• Pair lurched higher, eventually, after BoE hawkish hold, oil slid from early highs

• Mideast conflict, oil prices & downstream effects on inflation the primary focus for mkts

• WTI-Brent spread had widen to more than $15, now back at 13 aids GBP rise

• BoE members caution traders to not read too much into exceedingly hawkish policy view

• Res 1.3406/09- 21DMA/Thurs high, 1.3437- 200DMA 1.3544- 50% Fib of 1.3867-1.3220

• Supt 1.3347 the 200-HMA, 1.3300 psychological lvl, 1.3247 Thurs Europe session low

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7055 after AUD/USD rallied to 0.7063 in Europe's morning

• Slide extended early as risk soured; AUD/JPY, gold, silver, copper, aluminum fell

• USD/CNH rallied toward the overnight high to reinforce the risk-off sentiment

• AUD/USD hit a 3-session low of 0.7000, buyers emerged however

• US$ was sold broadly, USD/CNH fell below 6.8885, AUD/USD neared 0.7060

• The pair traded near 0.7055 late in the session, traded up +0.43%

• Daily bull hammer, diverging daily RSI are concenrs for AUD/USD bears

• Monthly doji, falling monthly RIS, possible head & shoulder on daily chart comforts bears
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research sees a scope for lower EUR/GBP over the next 3 months.

"On GBP, a full and outsized unwind of BoE cut pricing alongside the UK’s lower energy vulnerability relative to Euro area have combined to support Sterling’s recent resilience," GS notes.

This pushes in the opposite direction to our pre-existing call for slowing UK macro and clear GBP overvaluation to drive regional Sterling underperformance, and while we expect these longer-term themes to return later in the year, we see risks skewed to a continued move lower in EUR/GBP over the next three months,"GS adds.

(Updates)

• Shares of gold miners down, tracking a decline in bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold down 4.3% at $4,608.48/ounce, its lowest since early february

• Bullion prices dip, as the Middle East conflict increased energy prices and ignited inflation concerns, raising expectations that top central banks will keep borrowing costs elevated

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining down 8.2% and 5.6%, respectively

• U.S.-listed shares of South African miners Gold Fields

down 5.6%, Harmony Gold falls 7.4%, AngloGold Ashanti dips ~9% and Sibanye Stillwater declines 9.9%

• Canadian miners Agnico Eagle Mines falls 5.3% and Kinross Gold declines 5.4%

(Reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru)

SocGen Research likes building long EUR/GBP positions around 0.86 level and maintains a short GBP/AUD position targeting 1.82.

"The expected Eurozone-US growth gap is back to where it was in 2024, and so is EUR/GBP. We don’t, however, see any reason to expect this gap to narrow and even a hawkish, inflation-concerned Bank of England MPC doesn't make us enthusiastic about selling EUR/GBP," SocGen notes.

"We still like building longs around EUR/GBP 0.86. We are short GBP/AUD," SocGen adds.