• NY opened near 1.1780 after 1.1797 traded overnight, slide extended initially

• US yield , US$ gains weighed as did drops in gold and silver

• 1.1766 traded, the slide stalled, buying emerged as US$ softened

• USD/CNH fell toward 6.8770 and gold, silver bounced off their session lows

• EUR/USD neared 1.1790, traded close to flat on the session in NY's afternoon

• Daily doji candle formed, suggests indecision but other signals lean bearish

• Consolidation of recent drop & falling monthly RSI are bearish signals

• Euro zone January HICP, German Q4 GDP are data risks in Europe Wednesday
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research discusses USD/JPY near-term outlook.

"USD/JPY has bounced off the key support of 152 and broken above 155, supported by a stronger USD. January’s national headline inflation was 1.5% y/y, below the 1.6% consensus, mainly due to falling energy prices. Core and core-core inflation eased to 2% and 2.6%, respectively, suggesting that market expectations for over two BoJ hikes this year are extensive," ANZ notes.

"Q4 GDP data week suggest Japan narrowly escaped a technical recession, growing 0.1% q/q and -0.6% q/q the previous quarter. It is challenging to raise rates in an environment of slower growth. So, we stick to our tactical view for now, expecting a USD/JPY to test 160 in the near term, and ongoing geopolitical tensions between US-Iran likely support this view," ANZ adds.

• NY opened near 0.7050 after 0.7074 traded overnight, drop then extended

• Firm US yields, US$ & drops in gold, silver helped AUD/USD fall to 0.7027

• US$ buying abated and selling of it emerged, AUD/USD lifted off its low

• The pair then turned positive, hit 0.7070 then neared 0.7060, was up +0.07% late

• AUD/USD hemmed in between the 10- and 21-DMAs as consolidation persists

• Rising monthly RSI indicates longer-term upward momentum remains

• Australia Jan. CPI and its impact on RBA policy is a risk in Asia Wednesday
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses the technical outlook for Brent Crude.

"Brent prices exited a consolidation period and a notable daily close above $70/brl occurred. We see this move continuing next to the Fibonacci retracement level at $72.75 and then the downtrend line resistance at about $74.50," BofA notes.

"'Provided brent makes it to the mid-$70s, we'll be on watch for corrective signals, a possible retracement, then a resumption higher. A daily and weekly close above $75 will add strength to our bigger picture bullish scenario," BofA adds.

The trajectory for GBP/USD appears increasingly tilted to the downside as a widening divergence in Fed and BoE expectations and persistent geopolitical risks favor the greenback. The Bank of England has undergone a notable dovish shift recently, pressured by cooling UK inflation and deteriorating growth forecasts, which has significantly altered the path for sterling. Following February’s razor-thin 5-4 vote to hold rates, markets have been hyper-focused on comments from Governor Andrew Bailey -- including on Tuesday -- and other MPC voters for the chance of a flip toward a cut in March.

With STIR futures already pricing a near-80% probability of a March reduction, a confirmed dovish pivot from Bailey would likely lead markets to price in more than two cuts for 2025, stripping the pound of its interest rate support and applying further downward pressure.

In contrast, the U.S. dollar remains resilient, buoyed by safe-haven demand stemming from geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns. This environment is likely to sustain the dollar's strength against the backdrop of UK fiscal and political uncertainties and expectations of Fed neutrality while awaiting further inflation and employment data.

Technically, GBP/USD is navigating a tightening range between key moving averages. Immediate resistance is pegged at the 10-DMA at 1.3551, followed by the 21-DMA at 1.3627, while a broader recovery would face a ceiling at the Feb. 4 high at 1.3733. On the downside, the pair has survived several tests of 200-DMA support by 1.3446. Should the 200-DMA give way, the focus will shift toward the lower Bollinger Band at 1.3330 and Jan. 19 low at 1.3321 as the next significant target for bears.
Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research maintains a structural bullish on CHF.

"CHF's safe haven 'strengths' are particularly relevant for the shocks investors are currently most worried about - Inflation and currency debasement: Switzerland has most consistently low inflation in the world - Fiscal soundness: Switzerland has the lowest government debt/GDP ratio of any major economy - Investor protections and asset safety: Switzerland outscores its peer economies on institutional quality metrics, particularly those related to property rights, and rule of law," MS notes.

"In this way CHF is arguably the most 'gold-like' safe haven currency. For investors attracted to precious metals as a risk hedge and safe haven, CHF shares many of gold's positive attributes, but at the same time it has a lower carrying cost, is less volatile, and has appreciated less compared to precious metals, suggesting greater scope to 'catch up'," MS adds.

• USD/JPY fell 159.23-152.10 Jan 23-27 amid rate checking talk - now consolidates mid-point near 156

• Option implied volatility extended gains to highs since June as USD/JPY fell - benchmark 1-month 8.8 to 11.6

• That's reverted back toward the low end - now 9.6 - reflecting less volatility/risk and range-bound FX

• 1-month risk reversals spiked 0.75 to 3.5 vol for JPY calls over puts as USD/JPY dropped, but reverts to 1.4

• That downside volatility risk premium reduction is a casualty of range bound FX and lower implied volatility

• Trade flows/price action suggest expectations of more FX consolidation within familiar ranges

• JPY calls would hedge against intervention, but outright demand for these options remains low, for now
1-week and 1-month expiry USD/JPY risk reversals


USD/JPY FXO implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Traders added heavily to euro longs now totalling $26 billion

• While the number of bullish bets surged EUR/USD peaked in Jan then fell

• The 1.20 break that encouraged buyers has not been sustained

• An action to boost the yen would drive down the dollar

• EUR/USD rose from around toward 1.12 during yen intervention in 2024

• A rise of similar would lift EUR/UD beyond current 2026 high at 1.2084

• Action to support yen may happen soon and it will have consequences

•
EURUSD targets


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY bid up on reports that JP PM voiced concerns over further BoJ hikes

• However, follow-through looks shallow for now

• Yen's recent recovery stemmed from intervention risks/political stability as opposed to hike odds

• If yen weakened materially from here this would back the case for a rate hike

• Note that Japan's government will submit nomiees to fill 2 BoJ board seats

• Topside levels at 156.14 (cloud base), 158.20 (rate check) should continue to act as a cap

• Support resides at 152.10/28 (Jan/Feb lows)
USDJPY daily chart


BoJ pricing


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• In June 1998 the Fed joined BOJ to sell USD/JPY

• USD/JPY tumbled from 142 toward 137

• Although USD/JPY traded toward 148 in August it then plummeted

• USD/JPY was approaching 101 by November 1998

• Intervention the day the Fed sold was estimated circa $2 billion

• Intervention by BOJ in attempt to slow drop toward 100 est $90 billion

• Japan's currency has collapsed which warrants action to support it

•
USDJPY


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a quarter-cent range thus far Tuesday; 1.3475-1.3500

• 1.3475 was also Friday's NY afternoon low. Big 1.3500 option expiry at 1500 GMT

• Trump's 15% replacement tariffs, including on Britain, took effect at midnight ET

• BoE chief Bailey, and three other MPC members, to address MPC from 1415 GMT

• Former UK ambassador Mandelson released after arrest over Epstein revelations

• UK by-election in Manchester on Thursday; Labour is expected to lose seat

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Feb 24 (Reuters) - The relationship between gold and the dollar is set to change because traders have heavily sold the dollar and liquidated a large number of their bets on gold rising.

With fewer restraints, gold - that has doubled in value during the trade conflict - is likely to rise further. The dollar has tended to drop when gold rallied, but that may cease to be the case following substantial speculation on its decline. Already this month the dollar index has risen when many new bets on the dollar dropping have been added.

Although the dollar might fall, it is unlikely to drop quickly with such a large restraint in the form of short positions. By contrast, gold, which has soared, has the potential to move even higher - and more quickly - than before.

Still those who have shorted the dollar might find themselves on the wrong side of any gains in the currency spurred by larger rises in gold if the risk-averse nature of the trade conflict encourages investors to buy into the metal as a safe haven.

Depending on how great the shock is, demand for the global reserve currency could spark a rise in the dollar that is even more impressive than a simultaneous rise in gold.
Gold and betting


USD shorts and the USD index


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/15.00 GMT on Tuesday February 24

• EUR/USD:1.1735 (733M), 1.1765-70 (1.7BLN), 1.1780 (560M), 1.1800-15 (1BLN)

• 1.1825 (371M), 1.1840-50 (1.6BLN), 1.1860-65 (706M)

• USD/CHF: 0.7740-50 (438M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8715-20 (374M), 0.8730 (433M), 0.8740-45 (340M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3415-25 (388M), 1.3500 (1.2BLN), 1.3550-60 (337M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7025 (1.6BLN). NZD/USD: 0.5950 (201M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3705 (196M), 1.3720 (410M)

• USD/JPY: 155.00 (858M). AUD/JPY: 109.00 (240M)

• FX options wrap - Quiet start offers cheaper FX hedging
GBP/USD FX option strikes expiring Feb 23-27

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/CNY lingers near Tuesday's 33-mth low 6.8954, last 6.8961

• Heavy tone contrasts with USD/JPY buoyancy above 155.00

• Most Asian currencies weaken with DXY surge due to risk-off

• As Shanghai stocks cement gains with SSEC +0.9%, yuan insulated

• China keeps 1yr, 5yr LPRs unchanged again, as expected

• China holiday travel data positive [nP8N3Z102C]
CNY


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.2% Tue as markets steady in aftermath of renewed tariff anxiety

• PBOC leaves CN loan prime rates unchanged as widely expected

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser interview with Guardian podcast Tue

• AUD trend higher intact, but needs momentum uplift break 0.7158 resistance

• AU Jan monthly CPI due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.26% m/m, +3.7% y/y

• Range Asia 0.7050-725, support 0.6900 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Feb 24 (Reuters) - USD/JPY is likely to remain in flux for now given uncertainties related to U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions. It is likely to remain heavy above 155.00 however, with the U.S. likely uncomfortable with USD/JPY trading higher and Japanese authorities likely to concede . USD/JPY has traded between 154.00-155.64 since Friday following the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling against U.S. President Donald Trump's global tariffs . This range is likely to hold for now but with a downward bias given likely U.S. displeasure with renewed JPY weakness. The market looks to be capped on the 155 handle for now and could trade lower if the USD remains anathema to investors and speculators alike. Granted, USD shorts are large , and short-covering could keep it supported, but the bias down should remain especially if U.S.-Iran tensions abate . Recent changes to central bank expectations is one reason for USD/JPY to pause around current levels. The Bank of Japan's hawkish bias remains, with a hike seen likely in either March or April , . On the other hand, expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut again have been receding with robust economic data . Given the above, it would not surprise if USD/JPY consolidates for now between 154-156. Dips will continue to be bought by Japanese importers, as has been the case since last year , and shorts too, while Japanese exporters and speculators continue to sell into rallies. Related comments , .
USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Ewen Chew)

• AUD/USD consolidating Tue in wake of renewed U.S. trade policy uncertainty

• CN loan prime rates decision 0100 GMT, no changes widely anticipated

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser interview with Guardian podcast Tue

• AUD likely to resume trend higher, but needs fresh catalyst to break 0.7158

• AU Jan monthly CPI due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.26% m/m, +3.7% y/y

• Range Asia 0.70549-655, support 0.6900 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Uncertainty over US tariffs leaving USD/JPY course uncertain

• Asia 154.53-72 EBS so far after long Tokyo weekend

• Range since Friday 154.00-155.64, Fri high, Mon low, parameters to hold?

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials up from recent lows but trend still down?

• Lot of uncertainties, also still increased geo-political tensions

• Technically, USD/JPY pivoting around ascending 100-HMA now at 154.61

• Underlying support at now ascending 200-HMA at 153.86

• Descending hourly Ichimoku cloud 154.95-98, kijun/tenkan 154.52/49

• Spot currently below ascending 100-DMA at 155.05, 156.13-157.44 daily cloud

• On options front, large expiries today 155.00 $856 mln, 155.50-80 $897 mln

• Related comments , , ,

• And , also , Fed-speak

• US markets , , ,

• On Trump tariffs ,

• On US economy , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

RBC Research maintains a bullish bias on CHF over the near-term.

"Over the last year CHF has behaved as the dominant risk-off currency in the G10. With Trump still in the White House for three more years, it is hard to imagine a period of geopolitical serenity emerging. This CHF strength is likely to endure in the near-term even though the economic data has been weak," RBC notes.

"We think FX intervention at some point over the next year is likely, but timing is a challenge. Instead of a spot trade a view on FX intervention may be better expressed through options, for example EUR/CHF call spreads," RBC adds.

• AUD/USD -0.5% late Mon as risk sentiment sours on renewed U.S. trade concern

• Precious metals firmer, while equities, USD, UST yields all lower

• RBA's Plumb says quarterly trimmed mean CPI remains focus, studying new data

• Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser interview with Guardian podcast Tue

• Hawkish RBA & super fund hedging will limit AUD downside progress

• AU Jan monthly CPI due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.26% m/m, +3.7% y/y

• Overnight range 0.7049-90, support 0.6900 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar fell alongside Treasury yields on Monday as equities weakened after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled the possibility of new restrictive trade measures following Friday’s Supreme Court tariff ruling. Trump warned countries against backing away from recently negotiated trade deals, saying that he would hit them with higher duties under different laws and may impose license fees. His comments come as the EU considers freezing the ratification process of its trade deal with the U.S.

Yields fell even as the Chicago and Dallas Fed surveys showed improving business activity. February consumer confidence and a slate of Fed speakers are on Tuesday’s agenda. The State Department is withdrawing non-essential staff and families from the U.S. embassy in Beirut before Iran and the U.S. nuclear talks on Thursday. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that if the U.S. is moving to a higher-productivity, higher-growth economy it could imply that interest rates would also be higher.

EUR/USD held a modest gain above its 1.1775 session low, but the pair remains technically bearish while trading below the 21-day moving average, with an inverted daily hammer forming just above the nearby 55-day moving average at 1.1767. GBP/USD rose modestly with early European strength fading amid Trump’s tariff rhetoric and rising geopolitical angst. Softer gilt yields and lingering UK political, inflation and growth concerns helped cap sterling's advance. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and three other policymakers including Chief Economist Huw Pill are set to address lawmakers on Tuesday.

AUD/USD slipped as haven demand and weakness in shares lifted U.S. Treasuries and the dollar. An inverted daily hammer and diverging RSIs poses risks for AUD/USD bulls.

USD/JPY fell beneath its 21-day moving average after being capped near its 100-day moving average of 155.01, with the yen posting broad gains on worsening risk sentiment.

Treasury yields fell 4 to 7 basis points with the 2s-10s curve slipping 2 basis points to +58.1bp, its flattest reading since early December.

The S&P 500 fell 1.0% on weakness in financials and consumer shares. WTI oil eased from a six-month high with nuclear talks and U.S. tariffs in focus.

Gold rose 2.0% and silver gained 3% while copper fell 1.0%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.15%, USD/JPY -0.35%, GBP/USD +0.15%, AUD/USD -0.5%, DXY -0.15%, EUR/JPY -0.24%, GBP/JPY -0.28%, AUD/JPY -0.72%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

MUFG Research discusses the JPY outlook over the near- and medium term.

"An escalation of geopolitical risks is an obvious near-term risk that could encourage extended yen selling. Takaichi’s policy speech on Friday did not trigger any JGB selling but the tone of the remarks were still consistent with a focus on spending and growth.

There remains a risk of concerns growing if investors become sceptical over the ability to contain JGB issuance. If crude oil prices advance further over the short-term it will likely put upward pressure on global yields and potentially encourage further yen selling," MUFG notes.

"Still, the tone of rhetoric from the BoJ is likely to continue to be more hawkish, especially if the yen weakens further which should encourage expectations of an April hike and curtail the scope of yen selling at weaker levels. The threat of MoF intervention will also increase notably," MUFG adds.

• NY opened near 0.7070 after 0.7112 traded overnight, pair rallied early

• 0.7090 was neared but sellers emerged and the pair turned downward again

• Bid for safe-haven assets weighed; US Treasury prices rallied as did the US$

• AUD/JPY fell toward 108.80, gold gained,USD/CNH lifted its low & stocks sank

• AUD/USD fell to 0.7049 then neared 0.7060, was down -0.51% late in the day

• Daily inverted hammer & diverging daily RSIs are concerns for AUD/USD bulls
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research adopts a bullish bias on CHF over the coming week and runs a short EUR/CHF position in its recommendations portfolio.

"We argue that investors are underestimating and underpricing CHF strength. CHF is the most consistent and effective safe haven compared to its typical safe haven 'peers', and we think the SNB may be more tolerant of CHF strength than many investors think," MS notes.

"We forecast EUR/CHF to fall to 0.87, below consensus and forwards, and see USD/CHF shorts as an attractive hedge for USD 'bear case' scenarios," MS adds.