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AUD / NZD
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EUR / GBP
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GBP / JPY
By Christopher Romano  —  Feb 07 - 02:00 PM

(Corrects typo in headline)

• NY opened near 1.0380, traded a wide 1.0414-1.0348 range after US jobs data

• Mixed jobs report drove the wide swing but buyers emerged, 1.0390 was neared

• Pair held near that level after Feb. University of Michigan report

• Risk soured & US$ firmed on report Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs

• Stocks fell sharply, spreads widened, USD/CNH rallied

• EUR/USD hit 1.0305, neared 1.0340 on report EU may lower tariffs on US cars

• 1.0320 neared late as US$ was firm, pair traded down -0.58% late in the day

• Hold below daily cloud base, drop below 5- & 21-DMAs highlight downside risk
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Christopher Romano  —  Feb 07 - 01:48 PM

• NY opened near 0.62895, pair sat nearby into the January payroll report

• Mixed jobs data drove a wild swing, pair hit 0.63025 then traded 0.6266

• Firmer US yields, USD/CNH rally, stock drop weighed on AUD/USD

• Pair bounced & neared 0.6300 into Feb. University of Michigan report

• Sellers emerged on report Pres. Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs

• AUD/USD fell to 0.6254 then neared 0.6280 late, pair down only -0.18% late

• Daily doji, diverging daily RSI are short-term bearish signals

• Rising monthly RSI, monthly bull hammer candle give longs some comfort
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Paul Spirgel  —  Feb 07 - 01:37 PM

• GBP$ trades -0.15% at 1.2420 in NY afternoon; NorAm range 1.2490-1.2377

• Pair whippy after U.S. payrolls firm on headline, sold on revision, wages

• USD got added boost after talk of U.S. reciprocal tariffs likely next week

• Sterling likely to struggle more after US payrolls

• Upcoming U.S.-Feb 12, UK-Feb 19 CPI in focus for hints at c.bank policies

• GBP$ supt 1.2377 Friday post-payroll, tariff talk low, 1.2249 Feb 3 low

• Res at falling 55-DMA by 1.2505, 1.2550 tariff delay flash relief high

Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By eFXdata  —  Feb 07 - 01:30 PM

Synopsis:

MUFG expects further downside for NZD/USD as trade uncertainty and aggressive RBNZ easing weigh on sentiment. However, demand is likely to pick up below 0.5500, especially if trade risks subside and New Zealand’s economy improves later in 2025.


Key Points:

  1. Tariff Risks to Drive Renewed NZD Selling:

    • The 1st February tariff announcement on Canada, Mexico, and China will increase global trade disruption risks, negatively impacting NZD.
    • The initial NZD bounce from January’s optimism over a more pragmatic US trade policy is expected to reverse.
  2. NZD/USD Already Down 12% in Q4, But More Weakness Likely:

    • Despite a 12% drop in Q4 2024, NZD’s January rebound has been modest.
    • Further 4-5% downside remains possible, particularly if tariff fears intensify.
  3. RBNZ’s Aggressive Easing Cycle to Weigh on NZD:

    • The RBNZ is set to cut by 50bps in February, with another 50bps of easing priced by July.
    • By mid-year, the RBNZ policy rate will be around neutral, allowing economic conditions to stabilize.
  4. Economic Recovery Could Provide Support Later in 2025:

    • New Zealand’s economy likely contracted by 0.3% in 2024 but is forecast to grow 1.3% in 2025.
    • With inflation now close to target (2.2% YoY in Q4), less trade uncertainty and better growth could help NZD recover later in the year.

Conclusion:

NZD/USD faces near-term downside risks due to tariff concerns and RBNZ easing, but demand is expected to pick up below 0.5500, especially if trade fears ease and economic growth improves later in 2025.

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Feb 07 - 11:57 AM

Feb 7 (Reuters) - EUR/USD has been gravitating toward the 1.0350 level since mid-November, and its resilience to momentary spikes lower on major concerns such as U.S. tariffs suggests the market might be reluctant to buy into endless U.S. exceptionalism. How the market digests, in coming sessions, Friday's mixed U.S. non-farm payrolls report -- which showed a downside surprise to payrolls combined with upward adjustments to previous months and an unexpectedly low unemployment rate -- will provide key clues to investors' thinking. EUR/USD initially struggled for direction after the data, suggesting the market may be awaiting employment reports in coming months to better evaluate the state of the labor market considering changes announced so far by U.S. President Donald Trump, including buyout offers for most government workers, plans to reduce the size of the federal workforce and other actions with the potential to affect employment. Markets will likely see future employment data as key to determining whether the Fed will deliver the additional rate cuts currently expected or decide to ease even further. If slower job growth does emerge, it could erode the dollar's yield advantage over the euro as terminal rate spreads for the Fed and ECB tighten and German-U.S. 2-year yield spreads narrow.

In a weaker U.S. employment scenario, investors expecting EUR/USD to fall towards parity could be disappointed and may have to cover short positions. U.S. weekly jobless claims data may take on added significance for market participants due to its frequency.
deus


eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By eFXdata  —  Feb 07 - 12:00 PM

Synopsis:

Credit Agricole highlights four key FX implications of President Trump’s trade wars, focusing on higher volatility, EUR underperformance, pressure on AUD/NZD, and risks for CAD despite a temporary reprieve.


Key Points:

  1. Increased FX Volatility:

    • The uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies has elevated FX volatility.
    • Markets remain on edge as Trump leverages tariffs for both economic and geopolitical goals.
  2. EUR Underperformance:

    • The EUR lags G10 peers in rebounding against the USD due to the lingering threat of US tariffs on the EU.
    • Ongoing trade uncertainty could dampen sentiment for European assets.
  3. AUD & NZD Pressure from US-China Tensions:

    • The ratcheting up of US-China trade tensions keeps AUD and NZD under pressure.
    • China has responded cautiously to new US tariffs, introducing countermeasures such as targeted tariffs and regulatory actions.
  4. CAD Reprieve is Temporary:

    • Despite a 30-day reprieve on US tariffs in exchange for stricter border control and fentanyl crackdowns, Canada remains at risk.
    • Trump’s escalating demands could lead to renewed pressure on CAD.

Conclusion:

Trump’s trade war tactics have increased FX volatility, weakened EUR, pressured AUD/NZD, and kept CAD at risk despite temporary relief. Markets remain vulnerable to shifting trade policies and geopolitical bargaining tactics.

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Feb 07 - 10:48 AM

Sterling's recent rise on diminished global tariff uncertainties and easing UK fiscal concerns is being overshadowed by a renewed focus on the U.S.-UK rate differential, which is shifting in the dollar's favor. Markets appeared to interpret Friday's non-farm payrolls report as broadly supporting the Fed's wait-and-see policy approach on policy, pushing U.S. rate expectations slightly higher in 2025 and widening the U.S.-UK rate gap, especially in the wake of Thursday's dovish BoE cut. GBP/USD reversed initial post-data gains on Friday, falling from its flash high 1.2490 to 1.2453, as markets shrugged off the downside headline payrolls surprise, focusing instead on upward revisions and rising earnings, which reduced Fed 2025 rate cut odds. This should increase the difficulty of sterling rising above the post-tariff delay high by 1.2550, struck on Feb. 5, and the 50% Fib of the 1.3043-1.21 November 2024-January 2025 range at 1.2571. Sterling traders will now look to U.S. CPI on Feb. 12 and UK price data on Feb. 19 for clues on the inflation outlooks and Fed and BoE policy. Any shift in the current steady Fed outlook or more-dovish BoE policy path may move GBP/USD out of its recent 1.2550-1.21 range.
GBP Chart:


G7 inflation table: :


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By eFXdata  —  Feb 07 - 10:30 AM

Synopsis:

BofA sees a strong technical setup for GBP/USD upside, recommending a long position via a 3-month call spread. Risks include a failed pattern, UK tariffs, and strong US NFP data.


Key Technical Factors Favoring GBP/USD Upside

  1. Daily & Weekly Charts Support a Rally

    • Daily chart:
      • Downtrend channel broken to the upside
      • Potential head-and-shoulders base forming
      • RSI & MACD show higher highs (bullish momentum)
    • Weekly chart:
      • Wave C down may be complete
      • MACD turning up
      • Net short positioning near a 2-year extreme
  2. Target Levels

    • 200-day moving average: 1.2791
    • 200-week moving average: 1.2750

Trade Recommendation: GBP/USD Call Spread

  • Buy GBP/USD 3-month 1.26/1.2850 call spread 1x1.5 for 0.4135% GBP
    • Spot reference: 1.2480
    • Implied volatility: 7.80%/7.50%

Risks to the Trade

  1. Pattern Failure:

    • A failed hammer or head-and-shoulders pattern if GBP/USD falls below 1.2249 (Monday’s low).
  2. UK Tariffs:

    • If the UK is targeted with tariffs, GBP could sell off.
  3. US NFP Data on Feb 6:

    • Stronger-than-expected jobs data could boost USD, capping GBP gains.

Conclusion:

BofA favors a GBP/USD rally, targeting 1.2750-1.2790 via a 3-month call spread. Technical momentum, positioning, and chart patterns align for a bullish move, but tariff risks and strong US data could challenge the setup.

Source:
BofA Global Research
By eFXdata  —  Feb 07 - 09:22 AM

Synopsis:

The US January jobs report showed softer payroll gains but strong revisions and robust wage growth, supporting the Fed’s cautious stance. Meanwhile, Canada’s job market remained hot, but trade uncertainty casts doubt on sustainability.


US Jobs Report: Solid Overall, Despite Lower Headline Payrolls

  1. Payrolls Below Consensus, But Prior Revisions Were Strong

    • 143K jobs added (vs. 175K expected), but December revised up to 307K.
    • +100K net revisions over the prior two months.
    • 3-month job gains revised up from 170K to 204K.
  2. Wage Growth Surprised to the Upside

    • +0.5% m/m (above consensus), but may reflect lower hours worked (34.1 vs. 34.2).
  3. Household Survey Looked Strong

    • Unemployment rate fell to 4.0% (vs. 4.1% expected).
    • Participation rate ticked up to 62.6%, signaling continued labor supply growth.
  4. Takeaway:

    • Fed remains on hold, as momentum in labor markets remains solid.
    • Focus remains on inflation, fiscal, immigration, and trade policies.

Canada Jobs Report: Strong Gains, But Risks Ahead

  1. Employment Growth Surged

    • +76K jobs added (vs. 25K expected).
    • Unemployment fell to 6.6% (from 6.7%), even with rising participation.
  2. Private-Sector & Manufacturing Hiring Boosted Gains

    • Manufacturing added 33K jobs, but tariff uncertainty threatens future gains.
  3. Wage Growth & Hours Worked Still Strong

    • Wage growth eased to 3.7% (from 3.8%).
    • Hours worked surged 0.9%, indicating strong labor demand.
  4. Takeaway:

    • The unemployment rate is still higher than late 2022, suggesting slack remains.
    • Trade uncertainty & tariffs could weigh on hiring decisions moving forward.
    • Lower rates still needed to support a full labor market recovery.

Conclusion:

The US job market remains solid, despite softer headline payrolls, while Canada’s strong hiring faces risks from trade uncertainty. The Fed stays on hold, while Canada may need further rate cuts to absorb labor market slack.

Source:
CIBC Research/Market Commentary
By Justin McQueen  —  Feb 07 - 06:59 AM

• Though GBP has bounced back following the BoE's dovish cut

• Technically, this bounce has yet to face key topside hurdles

• In turn, there is a risk in chasing GBP higher

• Initial resistance at the 55DMA (1.2505) and above at 1.2600-20

• At the same time, the growth outlook should remain a drag on GBP

• Next GDP update due Feb 13

• Meanwhile, there is a slew of BoE speak (Mann, Bailey & Greene)

• For now, the bias towards GBP is likely a fade on rallies

• BoE's survey leaves door ajar for faster policy easing
GBPUSD daily chart


(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Martin Miller  —  Feb 07 - 05:46 AM

Feb 7 (Reuters) - FX traders hoping to take advantage of the usual bullish February trend should be mindful of huge technical resistance that could well limit the upside.

An analysis of AUD/USD's February performance since 2000 shows it has risen in 16 of the past 25 years, or 64% of the time. However, seasonality should not be considered in isolation, it needs to be corroborated by other factors.

AUD/USD was weathering a bad case of whiplash on Friday having rallied from new dizzying 2025 lows at 0.6089 hit early in the week, but remains vulnerable to a relapse. Spot's rebound has been limited by thick daily cloud resistance, which currently spans the 0.6289-0.6433 region, highlighting the overall bearish market structure. There is scope for bigger losses below 0.6089, which in turn would unmask the 0.6000 psychological level.

However, those that are bullish can take comfort from the fourteen-day positive momentum reading. A break above January's 0.6330 high would increase the likelihood that AUD/USD could end February in positive territory.
Seasonality Chart:


Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Peter Stoneham  —  Feb 07 - 04:46 AM

• The bullish engulfing candle from w/e January 20 is still in play

• Bear close last week weakened the signal but this week's gains have revived

• GBP eyes the weekly cloud and 100WMA, 1.2634 and 1.2644, respectively

• Weekly momentum remains negative but RSI is rising

• The week's 1.2550 high the key level to watch

• We lean bullish but are side lined for now waiting for further signals

• GBP/USD trader GBP/USD Trader: [page:2338]
GBP/USD Weekly candle chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Martin Miller  —  Feb 07 - 03:36 AM

• USD/JPY has broken 151.06 Fibo, a daily close below would expose 150

• 151.06 Fibo is a 76.4% retrace of the 148.65-158.88 (Dec-Jan) EBS rise

• 14-day momentum remains negative, highlighting the underlying downside risk

• A failure to close below the 151.06 Fibo would be a sign of a bear-trap

• A bear trap is set when a market breaks below a tech level but then reverses

• USD/JPY Trader . Previous update

Daily Chart:


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Robert Howard  —  Feb 07 - 03:13 AM

Feb 7 (Reuters) - The next Bank of England monetary policy decision day could be lively for sterling again, due to the possibility of another interest rate cut.

Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra look certain to vote for lower rates on March 20, having wanted the rate cut by 50 basis points to 4.25% on Thursday.

The dovish duo might be joined by Alan Taylor and Dave Ramsden, who both wanted the BoE to lower rates last December.

Tipping the scales to a reduction will be difficult, but not impossible: Governor Andrew Bailey on Thursday said the BoE will address the rate cut question "meeting by meeting".

The consensus expectation is that the BoE will reduce rates again, by 25 bps to 4.25%, at its next-but-one meeting in May.

The pound dropped ahead of Thursday's quarter-point rate cut on speculation that at least one of the nine MPC members might vote for a reduction larger than 25 bps, and fell further on the news that two MPC members had done so.

Related comment:
GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Robert Howard  —  Feb 07 - 02:30 AM

• Cable trades on 1.24 handle after profit-take flow-assisted lift from 1.2361

• 1.2361 was low after GBP fell on two MPC votes for 50 bps rate cut Thursday

• Ensuing high 1.2456, during NY afternoon (1.2550 was 4-week high Wednesday)

• US jobs report due at 1330 GMT: Jan NFP f/c at 170k; jobless rate f/c 4.1%

• NFP beat could lessen risk of Fed rate cut before summer, and inflate dollar

• Bessent says strong USD policy remains intact under Trump, Bloomberg reports

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Peter Stoneham  —  Feb 07 - 02:26 AM

Bullish reversal holding despite early Friday weakness

• EUR/GBP remains above its daily cloud and 100-DMA

• Thursday's long upper candle shadow warns of demand fade

• February 17 0.8334-35 cloud twist could also drag on further gains

• Thursday 0.8376 high pivotal resistance for Friday

• A 61.8% Fibo just above at 0.8399

• Mixed signals leave us side lined for now

• EUR/GBP Trader EUR/GBP Trader: [page:2343]
EUR/GBP daily candle chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By eFXdata  —  Feb 06 - 04:30 PM

Synopsis:

Tomorrow’s US January jobs report could be pivotal for the USD Index (DXY), with soft data potentially triggering a 1-2% correction. However, ING believes USD weakness will be short-lived, as structural factors—tariffs and stable US yields—will support the dollar in Q2.

Key Points:

  1. Soft Jobs Data Could Drive USD Lower

    • Earlier this week, JOLTS job openings data showed a weaker labor market, pressuring the USD.
    • A disappointing NFP print could push DXY towards the 106.35/50 range.
  2. Tariffs & US Yields Limit Further Downside

    • ING expects structural and broader tariffs to return in Q2, which should reinforce USD strength.
    • US Treasury yields are unlikely to drop significantly from here, supporting the dollar’s resilience.
  3. USD Weakness Would Be Temporary

    • While short-term downside risk exists, ING believes DXY will stay within a range this quarter.
    • The 106.35/50 area could act as a floor for USD weakness in Q1.

Conclusion:

A softer-than-expected US jobs report could drive another 1-2% correction in DXY, but USD downside is limited. ING expects tariffs and stable US yields to support the dollar, making any near-term weakness a buying opportunity.

Source:
ING Research/Market Commentary
By James Connell  —  Feb 06 - 10:40 PM

• AUD/USD moved higher in late morning Asia reaching a 0.6295 high

• Traders eyeing the 0.6300 resistance

• Stop-loss buying likely to emerge above the 0.6296 Wed high

• The pair is currently up 1.3% for the week despite trade war fears

• U.S. payrolls data later Fri will be key for short-term direction

• Initial support 0.6255, resistance 0.6300 and 0.6330

• AUD Asia range 0.62795-0.6295, pushing at the topside late
AUD eod


(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By James Connell  —  Feb 06 - 08:42 PM

• AUD/USD has been impressively buoyant following a sharp decline Mon

• Currently holding a 1.1% gain for the week despite trade was fears

• Monday's 0.60886 trough was the lowest since March 2020

• U.S. payrolls data later Fri will drive the final outcome this week

• Initial support 0.6255, resistance 0.6300 and 0.6330

• AUD in muted 0.62795-0.62885 Asia range so far
AUD midday


(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Sherin Sunny  —  Feb 06 - 07:58 PM

• Australian gold stocks down 0.9%

• Bullion prices slipped from record high rally after recording consecutive record peaks in its previous sessions on the back of escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China[GOL/]

• Sub-index gains 3.4% for the week, set for its seventh consecutive week of gains, if current trends hold

• Gold miners Northern Star Resources and Evolution Mining fell as much as 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively

• Sub-index down 20.2% this year, as of last close

(Reporting by Sherin Sunny in Bengaluru)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Haruya Ida  —  Feb 06 - 07:45 PM

• USD/JPY down big leg with US yields heavy, on NFP risk, hawkish BOJ view

• Down to 151.24 yesterday, off more in Asia today, to 150.96 EBS, high 151.60

• US yields up from lows this wk but still heavy, Tsy 2s @4.214%, 10s @4.433%

• Markets nervous over US jobs report tonight, NFP seen softer at +170k

• More hawkish BOJ view also taking hold, March meeting "live"?

• Japan-US rate diffs narrowing fast, especially at long end, 10s @316 bps

• USD/JPY to area of 151.11-81 weekly Ichimoku cloud, weekly kijun 149.23

• Ascending 100-WMA 147.99, all potential targets on decisive cloud break

• Base of cloud or levels just below have held for the past few years however

• Near-term downtrend remains intact however, resistance fanning out above

• Hourly Ichi tenkan 151.60, kijun 152.02, 55-HMA 152.65, cloud 152.86-153.81

• Option expiries today include 150.25-60 $784 mln cluster, 151.00 $606 mln

• Another cluster up top between 151.95-152.25 totalling $588 mln

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also ,

• On JPY in general , contrasting USD view

• US markets , , ,

• Fed-speak , , ,

• More on BOJ , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY weekly:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries into next week:


JGB-US Treasury 10-year interest rate differential:


(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By eFXdata  —  Feb 06 - 03:00 PM

Synopsis:

The BoE cut rates by 25bps to 4.50% as expected, but with a dovish twist in the vote split. The bank maintains a cautious stance, signaling a gradual and careful approach to easing. Danske expects another cut in May and a total of 100bps in 2025, but sees risks skewed toward a faster easing cycle.

Key Points:

  1. Dovish Vote Split Signals a Shift in Policy Stance

    • The 7-2 vote for a 25bp cut was notable, as previously hawkish Mann joined Dhingra in voting for a 50bp cut.
    • Mann’s shift signals that more aggressive rate cuts may be needed to ensure appropriate financial conditions.
  2. BoE Guidance Reflects Uncertainty, Gradual Easing Path

    • The statement added "careful" to "gradual" in describing the policy approach, highlighting heightened uncertainty.
    • The BoE revised growth significantly downward, reinforcing the case for further easing.
    • Inflation was revised higher near term due to global energy costs and regulated price increases, but the medium-term inflation outlook remains on track.
  3. Market Pricing & Danske's Forecasts

    • Markets price in 67bps of cuts by year-end, but Danske expects 100bps in total, with the next cut in May.
    • Given today’s dovish tilt, risks lean toward a faster cutting cycle in 2025.
  4. Impact on Rates & FX

    • Gilt yields moved lower on the dovish vote split.
    • EUR/GBP rose, but Danske expects EUR/GBP to move lower in the coming quarters as:
      • The BoE remains relatively hawkish vs. ECB.
      • The UK economy is expected to recover faster than the eurozone in 2025.
      • A USD-positive environment supports GBP resilience.

Conclusion:

The BoE is signaling a gradual easing cycle, but today’s vote split suggests a more aggressive cutting path is possible. Danske expects another 25bp cut in May and 100bps total in 2025, though the risks lean toward even faster easing. EUR/GBP is expected to decline longer-term, as UK growth outperforms the eurozone and the BoE remains relatively hawkish compared to the ECB.

Source:
Danske Research/Market Commentary
By James Connell  —  Feb 06 - 04:48 PM

• AUD/USD traded a low of 0.6255 early in London

• Sellers tested the resolve of AUD bulls, but the 0.6255-60 support held

• BOE rate cut (-0.25bps) did not impact AUD despite initial GBP sell-off

• Broader USD softness in the New York session helped lift AUD off the lows

• AUD approaching the hourly upper Bollinger Band early Asia

• Price action is flattening ahead of U.S. jobs report due Friday

• Overnight AUD range 0.6255-0.6288
AUD mng


(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
By Hannah Lang  —  Feb 06 - 02:49 PM

(Updates with late U.S. trade)

• Sterling slips after Bank of England rate cut

• Yen pares gains after hitting 8-week high versus dollar

• Dollar slightly higher, but still near recent lows


By Hannah Lang

NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - The yen touched an eight-week high versus the dollar on Thursday after a Bank of Japan policy board member advocated continued interest rate hikes, while sterling slid as the Bank of England cut rates. The pound fell sharply after the Bank of England cut interest rates as expected, but forecast higher inflation and weaker growth, with two officials calling for an even larger rate cut.

Sterling later pared some of those losses, having touched a one-month high on Wednesday. It was last down 0.54% at $1.2438.

Money markets now price in around 67 basis points of further BoE easing by the end of the year.

"The pound's losses may prove somewhat limited: the services-driven British economy is largely sheltered against trade war risks," Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist with payments company Corpay in Toronto, said in a research note.

The dollar index was up against a basket of peers at 107.69, but it still hovered near the lowest level since the start of last week, with investors beginning to entertain prospects that a global trade war could be averted.

In the absence of tariff headlines, markets looked ahead to the release on Friday of key U.S. monthly payrolls figures, the next major test for the U.S. monetary policy outlook.

The dollar index hit a two-year high of 110.17 on January 13, but has since retreated 2%.

"Driving this correction have been several factors, the largest of which has probably been this week's tariff news, where it looks like the Trump administration has been using tariffs for transactional not ideological purposes," said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING. U.S. President Donald Trump suspended planned tariff measures against Mexico and Canada this week, but imposed additional 10% levies on imports from China.

YEN STRENGTH The yen strengthened as far as 151.81 per dollar - the strongest level since December 12 - in the Tokyo morning, after the BOJ's Naoki Tamura said the central bank must raise rates to at least 1% or so in the latter half of fiscal 2025 with upward risks to prices rising.

Japan's currency was last changing hands at 151.335 per dollar, up 0.82% on the previous day, paring some of the early gains after Tamura clarified that he didn't mean that the neutral rate should be 1%.

"There seems to be a good amount of yen buying pressure today (Thursday). Not really sure what's driving that, but it's been very correlated to rates, and that's breaking down just a little bit today," said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies in New York.

The market is currently pricing in a quarter-percentage-point BOJ rate hike by September.

"Tamura is known to be on the hawkish side," although his comments initially "fired up yen longs," said Shoki Omori, chief global desk strategist at Mizuho Securities.

Conversely, a quarter-percentage-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is fully priced in for July, with markets expecting a total of 46 basis points of reductions by the December meeting, according to LSEG data.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that while Trump wants lower interest rates, he will not ask the Fed to cut rates.

Canada's loonie was at C$1.431 versus its U.S. counterpart after rising to the highest level since December 17 at C$1.4270 overnight. The Mexican peso was down 0.45% at 20.474 per dollar.

The euro edged down 0.19% to $1.0382.
(Reporting by Hannah Lang in New York; additional reporting by Greta Rosen Fondahn and Kevin Buckland; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Mark Potter, Susan Fenton, Will Dunham and Paul Simao)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
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