• Long liquidation evident before Iran conflict intensified after it began

• Pair fell 1.2084-1.1742 and closed 1.1816 on Feb 27

• EUR/USD dropped 1.1796-1.1507 after U.S. launched attack

• Between Feb 10 and Mar 6 bullish wagers cut from $27 billion to $20 billion

• The 21-DMA is dropping below the 55-DMA (both 1.1760) - bearish signal

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable rises to 1.3474 as risk-sensitive pound benefits from lower oil prices

• Oil prices lower on Trump saying Iran war could end "very soon"

• 1.3474 is the highest level since March 2 (1.3498 was the high that day)

• Monday's Asian session low was 1.3283, as oil prices soared

• Morgan Stanley still sees three BoE rate cuts, to 3.0%, in pipeline

• Fed, BoE are expected to keep rates unchanged next week (March 18/19)

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/14.00 GMT on Tuesday March 10

• EUR/USD: 1.1580-85 (1BLN), 1.1595-1.1605 (1.9BLN), 1.1610-20 (880M)

• 1.1635-40 (1.5BLN), 1.1650 (1.5BLN), 1.1695-1.1700 (4.7BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.7725 (560M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3325 (300M), 1.3350 (260M), 1.3550 (200M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7035 (430M), 0.7100 (703M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3535 (213M), 1.3550 (191M), 1.3665-70 (397M)

• USD/JPY: 157.00 (460M), 157.55 (312M), 157.75 (622M)

• 158.00 (344M), 158.30 (446M)(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• May have been a matter of time but USD/JPY has broken below its hourly cloud

• Ascending hourly Ichimoku cloud currently 157.91-158.20 with spot @157.66

• USD/JPY range today 157.53-95, support at session low, 157.36 Friday

• Gradually ascending 200-HMA below at 157.22

• $1.1 bln in 157.50-75 option expiries today providing gravitational pull

• Market focus still non crude oil/energy prices however

• Market will continue to remain hostage to news from the Middle East

• Related for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Lingbao Gold Group rises 5.8% to record high of HK$29.36; on track for third straight session of gains

• Chinese gold miner and smelter's H-shares included in list of eligible securities under Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect programmes with effect from March 9

• Co says inclusion conducive to further expanding its investor base, enhancing shares' trading liquidity

• Adds H shares also included as constituent of Hang Seng Composite Index effective March 9

• YTD, stock up 62.9%

(Reporting by Donny Kwok)

• AUD/USD -0.3% Tue as markets recalibrate in wake of extreme volatility

• WTI down 28.2% from Mon's 119.48 high following Trump reassurances

• Measures to combat rocketing energy prices include easing RU sanctions

• Remains unclear how likely material de-escalation is short term

• AUD 11-month rally remains intact, news driven for now

• Range Asia 0.7057-815, support 0.6944 0.6900 0.6660, resistance 0.7158
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD flat Tue in Asia after falling 1.1% Mon and then recovering 1.6%

• Markets placated by Trump claims that Iran war near end, easing RU sanctions

• Remains unclear how situation can be sufficiently unwound short term

• Oil gives up all post-weekend gains, WTI -26.2% from Mon 119.48 high

• AUD near hourly upper Bollinger band, may be overbought short term

• Range Asia 0.7061-815, support 0.6944 0.6900 0.6660, resistance 0.7158
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• US Pres Trump said war could end soon and crude oil prices fell hard

• NYMEX WTI futures off from high of $119.48/brl to $94.77/brl at close

• Futures since in $85.02-90.23/brl range since, last $89.19/brl

• USD off on back of fall in crude prices, USD/JPY to 157.64 by NY close

• Asia seeing range of 157.63-94 EBS so far but market still seen in flux

• Iran conflict outcome far from over with hardliners in command in Iran

• USD/JPY back in 157.46-158.26 ascending hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Tenkan near top of cloud at 158.02, kijun 158.26 above, 100-HMA 157.70

• Nearby option expiries today 157.50-75 $1.1 bln, 158.00-30 $906 mln

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials narrowed from highs, 2s to @232 bps

• High energy prices/inflation, weak labour market recipe for US stagflation?

• Japan similarly sees possible stagflation on weak yen, Gulf oil dependence

• Related comments , , ,

• And , also , on Trump-speak/Iran

• US markets , , ,

• On CBs/govts , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


NYMEX crude oil futures:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research discusses the scope for a deep correction in equities market.

"It is hard to look beyond the very near-term risks of a further extension of US dollar strength. The scale of increase in energy prices with no obvious ‘off-ramp’ to allow for de-escalation will likely see yields remain high, hitting growth expectations and hence equities," MUFG notes.

"A 20% correction in equities into bear-market territory is feasible which will likely see high-beta G10 FX suffer along with EUR and GBP. CAD, NOK and CHF look best placed to weather the financial market fallout. The scale of US dollar strength is more muted than expected with weak US fundamentals possibly playing a role," MUFG adds.

• AUD/USD +1.6% from Mon 0.69565 low as oil price surge abates

• Trump speaking to press Mon after reviewing options to curb energy prices

• Oil gives up all of Mon early gains, WTI -26.8% from Mon 119.48 high

• Iran hardliners uniting behind new leader Mojtaba Khameni

• AUD pushing hourly upper Bollinger band, may be overbought short term

• Safe haven USD buying abates for now, DXY -0.9% from Mon 99.695 high

• Overnight range 0.6982-0.7079, support 0.6944 0.6900, resistance 0.7158
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NY opened near 1.1560 after 1.1507 trded overnight, action was choppy early on

• Pair then dipped lower as US$ stayed firm and risk-off sentiment peristed

• Risk sentiment then improved however which began weighing down the dollar

• USD/CNH fell toward 6.9070 while stocks rallied towards flat

• Oil's sharp drop from overnight highs & lifts for gold & silver helped buoy risk

• EUR/USD rallied to 1.1600 then neared 1.1580 late, was down only -0.31% late

• Daily, monthly RSIs are falling but a daily bull hammer candle formed
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP$ off early weakness, -0.28% at 1.3387 in NY afternoon, Mon range 1.3408-1.3283

• Risk opened considerably weak amid oil rise toward $120, fades from high in NorAm

• Sterling bid sub-1.33 intact after 3rd test of 1.33 in 5 sessions

• Long tails near 1.33 hint at developing bid despite lingering geopolitical tensions

• UK SONIA futs hint at tumult, pricing higher rates in H2 2026; analysts see cuts

• LSEG's IRPR not indicating BoE, or Fed, cuts in Mar April 2026

• GBP$ res 1.3408 NY session high, 1.3425 daily high Mar 6, 1.3444 flat 200-DMA

• Supt 1.3369 rising 10-HMA, 1.3297 bruised lwr 30-d Bolli, 1.3255 daily low Mar 3

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses GBP near-term outlook.

"The GBP was able to hold its ground vs the resurgent USD in the wake of the US-Iran conflict better than the rest of the European G10 currencies. This reflects the impact of two key FX drivers," CACIB notes,

The first is the fact that UK rates investors have adjusted their BoE rate expectations more aggressively than other European investors in response to the latest oil price rally. As a result, the GBP regained some rate advantage over the EUR for example.

The second reason for the relative GBP resilience is the fact that the currency is the biggest short in the FX markets at present, and this may have helped mute its recent underperformance," CACIB adds.

• EUR/CHF bids emerge sub-0.90 - possible new line in the sand for the SNB

• Note that, the SNB flagged their discomfort of a strengthening franc last week

• Despite geo escalations, oil above $100, CHF has not caught a notable safe-haven bid

• Possible markets see SNB as a binding constraint

• As such, EUR/CHF topside risks look increasingly asymmetric from current levels

• Any credible de-escalation opens up the path to 0.92 in short-order

• First key hurdles stand at 0.9070/80 (200-hour MAs)
EURUSD hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Bank of America Global Research discusses USD/JPY technical setup.

"USDJPY has rebounded from support in the 152s (twice), broke above the Ichimoku cloud, may be forming a double bottom, MACD is positive, and the cloud may cross positive. The close above 157.76 favors a double bottom, weekly chart turn higher and further upside," BofA notes.

"Fibonacci extensions imply 161.26 / 163.43 can be reached. Ideally USDJPY remains above the daily Ichimoku cloud in the 155s. Our weekly chart is supportive," BofA adds.

(Updates)

• Shares of silver miners fall, tracking prices of the white metal [GOL/]

• Spot silver down 0.8% at $83.63 per ounce

• Prices pressured by stronger dollar and expectations of higher interest rates amid inflation concerns linked to the Middle East conflict

• Shares of miners Hecla and Coeur down between 5% and 6%, respectively

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver and Silvercorp Metals both dip ~5%

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF down marginally
(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

Morgan Stanley Research summarizes its tactical views on EUR, and JPY.

"EUR View: Neutral | Skew: Neutral We see risks as balanced for EUR/USD; a de-escalation scenario sees the pair rise to 1.18, while further escalation in energy supply volatility pushes the pair below 1.14. We think neither risk is fully priced by FX vol markets," MS notea.

"JPY View: Neutral | Skew: Neutral We turn neutral for risk skew on JPY amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions. Prolonged higher energy prices could worsen Japan's terms of trade and lead to weaker JPY, while the risk-off in global assets could lead to an unwinding of JPY carry trades," MS adds.

Goldman Sachs Research likes short EUR/CHF and long CHF/JPY as hedge trades against higher natural gas prices and rising global inflation risks.

"Given that CHF should continue to appreciate versus EUR if risks escalate we think short EUR/CHF expressions can be a good hedge against higher natural gas prices and Euro area current account risks,' GS notes.

"We also continue to think that long CHF/JPY is a good hedge against rising global inflation risks and can benefit in an environment where oil prices remain elevated for longer," GS adds.

• The eurozone imports oil while the U.S. exports it

• Oil closed at $93 barrel on Friday and rose to $119 barrel on Monday

• The huge rise in the price of oil - last $105 -should weigh EUR/USD

• EUR/USD fell to 1.1546 on Friday and opened at 1.1593 on Monday

• While the pair dropped it 1.1507 it then rebounded to 1.1573

• Oil is massively overbought and far more expensive - hedge FX accordingly

• Gold aggressively sold before a war that may boost its value

•
Brent crude oil


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Traders slashed bets on gold rising between mid-Jan and mid-Feb

• At 159k contracts bets on a rise are far smaller than 302k contracts start 2025

• Much less to stop gold - which hit a $5595/oz record high on Jan 29 - from rising

• Oil has soared which heightens inflation risk which should boost demand for gold

• The conflict in the Middle East should heighten the appeal of safer assets

• The gold rally is far less stretched in wake of the recent flask crash

• Trend is firmly up, few are long and there are more reasons to invest

•
Gold and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of gold miners fall premarket, tracking a decline in bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold down 1.5% at $5,090.53/ounce

• Bullion prices fall as a stronger U.S. dollar pressures the greenback-priced metal, while rising energy costs stoke inflation worries and reduce the chances of near-term rate cuts

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining down 3.9% and ~3%, respectively

• South African miners: Gold Fields , Harmony Gold , AngloGold Ashanti and Sibanye Stillwater decline between 3% and 5.5%

• Canadian miners: Agnico Eagle Mines falls 2.7% and Kinross Gold down 3.5%

(Reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru)

• Cable slid to 1.3283 in Asia as safe-haven USD jumped on oil's surge towards $120

• 1.3283 is the lowest level since March 3 (1.3255 was three-month low that day)

• Ensuing high is 1.3345, as oil prices retreat from four-year highs on FT report

• 1.3313-1.3425 was Friday range (when dollar fell on unexpected payrolls drop)

• CFTC data: net GBP short rose for fourth consecutive week in week to March 3

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Risk reversal options are a volatility trade which take advantage of a currency pairs direction

• EUR/USD risk reversals have been increasing volatility risk premiums for EUR puts over calls

• That's the right to sell EUR/USD versus buy it- prices have taken another leg higher Monday

• Benchmark 1-month 25 delta contract reached 1.7 Monday - a new high since October 2022

• That's up from a small topside strike premium in late Feb before Mid East conflict began

• 3-month 25 delta risk reversals now above 1.0 EUR puts - their highest in a year

• 1-year 25d risk reversal loses topside strike premium - now 0.1 EUR puts - last seen Apr 2025

• Related - Fear trade takes FX option costs toward year long highs
EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Traders have only unwound $7 billion of the $27 billion wager on euro rising

• EUR/USD has dropped 1.2084 to 1.1507 while bullish bets pared

• The remaining $20 billion is by far the largest existing FXwager

• Risk aversion evident due Iran war, bigger fall likely while more bets pared

• Target to correct EUR/USD's 1.0125-1.2084 rise is 1.1336

•
EURUSD and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)