SocGen Research sees a scope for USD/JPY spike to extend towards 160.

"The yen is back in the wars, USD/JPY threatening a return to 160 after PM Takaichi expressed doubts about the wisdom of the BoJ raising rates and nominated two perceived doves to the BoJ policy board," SocGen notes. 

"To make matters slightly worse, the long end of the JGB market is selling of again, which will not ease concerns about debt sustainability. USD/JPY is in danger of spiking higher," SocGen adds.

ANZ Research discusses AUD/USD and AUD/NZD near-term outlook.

"The recent risk-off sentiment in markets, on geopolitical tensions, has not caused the AUD to retreat below 0.70. We think this is due to the strong domestic backdrop. In the short term, we see AUD/USD remaining within the 0.70– 0.715 range. Near-term resistance lies at 0.7147 (12 February high) and a break above 0.7158 would clear a path for fresh highs," ANZ notes. 

"On the crosses, AUD/NZD is extending its strong run, supported by solid Australian data and higher yields. We think the rally in the cross is overdone and is ripe for a reversal towards 1.17, but this will take some time, possibly into April when Q1 inflation data for both economies is out," ANZ adds.

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses EUR/CHF outlook.

"The CHF remains the safe haven of choice in G10 FX as the US-Iran conflict broke out. After already falling to decade lows just short of 0.9050 on Friday, EUR/CHF has extended its decline to around 0.9025 at this week’s open before reversing. This has triggered the largest spillover in CHF-implied volatilities since April 2025," CACIB notes.

"The SNB is surely watching all that from up close, as the CHF would be at its strongest since 2011 on a real basis. While it is too early to know for sure whether the bank has had to intervene to rein in the CHF’s strength, preserving some big psychological level like 0.90 in EUR/CHF could carry extra signalling value for the SNB which has so far not particularly stepped up its jawboning against the CHF, perhaps to avoid any backlash from the US administration," CACIB adds.

Goldman Sachs Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and revises its 3 month target to 160 from 157.

"Our economists’ expectation for gradual rate hikes from the BoJ and no obvious signs of, nor clear case for, significant repatriation flows argued for an eventual USD/JPY reversal. Both of those views were reinforced as i) reports came out of PM Takaichi having voiced concern about further rate hikes in her recent meeting with Governor Ueda, ii) PM Takaichi nominated two candidates for the BoJ Policy Board who may be relatively cautious on additional hikes and iii) weekly EPFR flows continue to reflect Japanese demand for US equities," GS notes.

"For these reasons, the reversal in USD/JPY back higher makes sense to us, and we see room for further upside unless the policy or macro backdrop were to change," GS adds.

March 2 (Reuters) - The euro could make gains against the Japanese yen this month, something it has done in March in 17 of the past 26 years, or 65% of the time. However, seasonality should not be considered in isolation; it needs to be combined with other factors to be a useful tool. The yen has weakened due to Japan's heavy dependence on oil imports. Oil prices have surged amid escalating conflict in the Middle East.

USD/JPY rose from 155.50 to 157.04 on Monday, climbing above the thinned daily cloud base and top, both of which currently sit at 156.38. A close at the end of Monday's trading above the 1 pip cloud would be a very bullish sign.

The 30- and 60-day log correlation coefficients between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are both above +0.50, meaning that the two currency pairs will likely strengthen in tandem. EUR/JPY will likely finish in positive territory.
Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


Seasonality Chart


Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of gold miners rise premarket, tracking gains in bullion GOL/

• Spot gold up 2.3% at $5,398.06 an ounce as U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran spark safe-haven demand

• "While at these elevated prices investors should be wary of piling in, we do think the perceived safe haven appeal of gold in times of uncertainty remains," says Emma Wall, chief investment strategist at Hargreaves Lansdown

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining

rise between 2.4% and 3.4%

• South African miners Gold Fields and Harmony Gold rise 3.3% and 2.2%, respectively

• AngloGold Ashanti up 1.7%, Sibanye Stillwater

gains 0.9%

• Canadian miners Agnico Eagle Mines , and Kinross Gold , up over 3% each

(Reporting by Kanchana Chakravarty in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Indian jewellery makers down between 2% and 5.7% as gold prices jump amid escalating Middle East conflict

• Prices of gold , a traditional safe-haven asset, rise after U.S. and Israel launched major strikes against Iran

• Titan Company down 2%, Kalyan Jewellers

falls 3%

• Other jewellery makers P N Gadgil and PC Jewellers fall more than 5% each

• Jewellery stocks tend to move inversely to gold and silver prices as higher prices raise input costs, curb consumer demand, and pressure margins

• India also has strong trade links with the Middle East, including in gems and jewellery

• Indian stock markets under pressure on Monday, with Nifty

down 1.5%, as rising crude prices and safe-haven flight dent risk appetite

(Reporting by Nishit Navin in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY spurting higher with Tokyo trading coming to a close

• US-Iran conflict judged worse for Japan than the US

• This especially the case with the Hormuz Strait closed for now

• Japanese tankers left stuck in the Persian Gulf

• USD/JPY up from a low earlier of 155.50, to 156.99 EBS short while ago

• Some resistance still around 157.00, break targets 157.95 high Feb 9

• With daily Ichimoku cloud off to 155.72-77 tomorrow, break above clinched?

• Related , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD tumbles below 200 DMA 1.3447, hits a low of 1.3400

• Risk-off roils as Israel escalates Mid East conflict

• A couple more key technical supports at risk of being taken out

• Mon close below 1.3399 marks 100 DMA, Ichimoku cloud break

• That would trigger more bearish technical momentum

• Britain's RAF base in Cyprus hit by drone
GBP


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +1.0% from Mon morning 0.7033 low as markets take Iran war in stride

• Pair now down only 0.1% from Fri close after heavy losses in early trade

• Extended Strait of Hormuz closure would materially impact oil & gas supplies

• Trump flags ongoing military action, may continue for another four-weeks

• Iran retaliating with attacks on Israel and U.S. targets throughout region

• DXY breaks above 97.93 55-DMA but fails to extend yet again

• RBA's Hunter speaking late Mon, Bullock Tue & Hauser Fri

• Range Asia 0.7033-0.7109, support 0.6900 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Seems safe haven flows not only into USD and CHF but also JPY

• Word some Tokyo players may be unloading offshore assets, buying yen

• Whether such flow will last remains questionable, especially into Europe

• That said, USD/JPY upside limited to 156.80 EBS, off after early rally

• Support still on dips, hourly kijun/tenkan at 156.15, cloud 155.90-156.08

• Ascending 100-HMA in Ichimoku cloud at 156.02, 200-HMA 155.33 below

• Hawkish comments from BOJ DepGov Himino may have helped the yen

• That said, US-Iran conflict will have effect on Japan growth, misgivings

• Related comment , also ,

• On US-Iran/Japanese economy/BOJ , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY bid following Israel-US attacks on Iran, Middle East Japan sore spot

• Japan gets most of its crude oil from the Middle East, supply stopped

• May not be till conflict resolved before crude oil supply restored

• USD/JPY from 155.64 EBS early Asia to 156.80 before steadying a bit

• Market still volatile, more upside cannot be ruled out

• This especially with wafer thin 156.37 daily Ichimoku cloud below spot

• Cloud to fall to 155.71-76 tomorrow, break above cloud to be confirmed?

• USD/JPY also up above 156.03-07 hourly Ichimoku cloud in big way

• Good resistance eyed from ahead of 157.00, 156.882 high February 25

• More resistance eyed at 157.72 spike high on February 9

• US yields off hard on safe haven Treasury safe-haven buys but no matter

• In options, some expiries today between 155.00-25 and at 157.00

• Related comments , , , also

• US markets (pre-Iran) , ,

• Weekend news , , ,
USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD +0.5% from early 0.7033 low, markets fairly orderly on Iran news

• Pair remains down 0.6% from Fri close amid caution on risk exposures

• Strait of Hormuz closure will impact global oil & gas supplies

• Trump says military actions may continue for another four-weeks

• Iran retaliating with attacks on Israel and U.S. targets throughout region

• DXY breaks above 97.93 55-DMA after multiple failed attempts in recent weeks

• RBA's Hunter speaking late Mon, Bullock Tue & Hauser Fri

• Range Asia 0.7033-0.70896, support 0.6900 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Gold miners rose as much as 1.4% to a record high

• Bullion prices soar as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset after the U.S. and Israel's strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and intensifying geopolitical tensions in the region [GOL/]

• The sub-index gained 1.1% on Friday and is up for the seventh straight session

• Stock is up 21.5% YTD

• Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources

climb 6.6% and 5.2%, respectively

(Reporting by Anjali Singh in Bengaluru)

• EUR/USD -0.5% from Fri's 1.1816 close in early trading Mon

• Risk sentiment in retreat in wake of U.S./Israel attacks & Iran retaliation

• UK, FR & DM agree to work with the U.S. and its allies on Iran situation

• Crucial Strait of Hormuz closure likely to push oil above $100 a barrel

• DXY +0.3% early Mon, but rally slowing near 97.93 55-DMA

• Euro zone consumer inflation data due Tue, Jan producer price data Wed

• Range Asia 1.17525-88, support 1.1572, resistance 1.2084, 1.21475
EUR Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar was mixed into month-end on Friday, with haven currencies gaining support as AI and Iran concerns dampened risk appetite. U.S. President Donald Trump said he was not happy with Iran and wants to make a deal with Tehran but warned that "sometimes you have to" use military force, helping to support oil and gold into U.S. and Iran talks next week. U.S. producer prices unexpectedly accelerated in January, with the annual pace running at a 2.9% annual rate versus the 2.6% forecast. Treasury yields fell, pushing the 10-year yield to a year-to-date low below 4%. U.S. data next week includes PMIs, ISM readings and the February jobs reports. OpenAI's latest funding round amounted to $110 billion from Big Tech.

The dollar index continues to consolidate below its 55-day moving average and above its 21-day moving average. High levels of option convexity hint at volatility in March.

EUR/USD reversed an early drop after PPI and tested its 21-DMA at 1.1824 before paring gains. EUR/CHF slid 0.5% on haven-related selling.

GBP/USD approached its February low of 1.3435 as geopolitical tension, a firmer U.S. PPI, risk-off tone, and lingering U.K. fiscal concerns weighed. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said the central bank should not be too reassured by falls in headline inflation. Separately, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledged to fight political "extremes" after his Labour Party suffered a humiliating election defeat.

USD/JPY trimmed its earlier drop as haven demand and higher oil lifted the dollar though sub-4% 10-year Treasury yields and soft volatility kept it below a thinning daily cloud at 156.53–157.44.

AUD/USD rose amid easing U.S. yields, strong gold and silver gains with rising RSIs, supporting it above the 10- and 21-DMAs.

Treasury yields were down 4 to 7 basis points as the curve steepened. The 2s-10s curve edged up about 1 basis point to +57.5bp.

The S&P 500 fell 0.80% as tech and financial shares fell.

WTI oil jumped over 2% to its highest level since August.

Gold rose 1.1%, silver jumped over 5% and copper gained 0.6%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.19%, USD/JPY -0.13%, GBP/USD +0.01%, AUD/USD +0.13%, DXY -0.21%, EUR/JPY +0.06%, GBP/JPY -0.14%, AUD/JPY +0.01%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

Morgan Stanley Research maintains a bearish and short position in EUR/CHF in spot.

"We think our 12m forecast of 0.87 in EUR/CHF stands in sharp contrast with consensus and market pricing. We estimate a decline of EUR/CHF to 0.87 over 12 months is only priced at about a 25% probability, for example. Meanwhile consensus forecasts place EUR/CHF modestly higher, not lower, over the next 1-2 years," MS notes.

"This underpricing suggests CHF longs are attractively priced as a hedge for risk-oriented portfolios - and as a safe haven hedge against the risk of unexpected and large shocks. EUR/CHF shorts are attractive, in our view, and we continue to recommend short EUR/ CHF positions targeting 0.87," MS adds

• AUD/USD holding firm with dips remaining shallow - 200HMAs provide near-term floor

• Though the pair still looks constructive as these levels hold (0.7077-80)

• Positioning is still a headwind worth respecting. Crowded bets make for a choppy trade

• However, they create asymmetric pullbacks when they unwind

• Overnight, the PBoC dropped the FX forward risk reverse ratio from 20% to zero

• This is a signal that Beijing is not comfortable with the pace of yuan gains

• That said, history shows the trend does not flip immediately

• At the margin, this is a slight yuan negative, thus a potential drag for AUD
audusd


CNH and FX reserve ratio


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Bank of America Global Research discusses EUR/USD outlook. 

"Supreme Court decisions, Federal Reserve announcements, and most recently, a potential runup to further military action in Iran have been among the headlines to roil markets just in the past few weeks. Meanwhile, equities have become more ambivalent around the prospects of AI for markets," BofA notes.

"Yet for all the headlines, we have not yet seen a more persistent impact in broader G10 FX views despite the recent shorter term volatility. EUR-USD is only slightly higher from where we finished year-end, and in general we continue to expect modest broad USD downside over the medium-term. We still look for EUR-USD to be at 1.22 at the end of the year," BofA adds.

• Cable elicits support by 1.3435-39 after risk aversion-spurred drop

• Feb 20 low was 1.3439, before the pound rose on UK flash PMI beats

• 1.3435 was four-week low on Feb 19. GBP is risk-sensitive; USD safer-haven

• London morning range was 1.3462-1.3509, after Labour's by-election loss

• U.S. producer prices increase more than expected in January

• BoE should not be "lulled into false sense of security" by lower inflation, says Pill

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses GBP outlook for the coming week.

"Looking ahead into next week, the UK data calendar is relatively light with only the latest BoE lending data and the final PMIs for February on the docket. Also, next week, the Spring Statement could attract some attention as well, even though we doubt that Chancellor Rachel Reeves will make any major policy announcements. This is because the statement could showcase the improving fiscal outlook in terms of growing fiscal headroom and lower borrowing needs," CACIB notes.

"Turning to the FX market impact, we think that the GBP is starting to look oversold, especially given that a lot of BoE-related negatives are already in its price. Easing fiscal concerns and a cautious economic recovery in the UK could attract more foreign investors into the gilt and equity markets, in a boost to the GBP," CACIB adds.

ANZ Research discusses EUR and GBP outlook for the coming week. 

"The week ahead is data-heavy for the EA, with inflation and unemployment prints due. Consensus expects steady headline inflation and a marginal uptick in the unemployment rate, but this stagnation narrative is not fully captured in OIS pricing...

Markets currently are not pricing any ECB rate cut in 2026, suggesting room for expectations to adjust if next week’s data surprise on the downside. Overall, we think EUR/USD lacks a decisive catalyst. We expect EUR to remain data-dependent and neutral in the week ahead," ANZ notes.

"Chancellor Reeves will deliver the Spring Statement next week. Recent figures for public sector net borrowing have shown a notable improvement compared to the previous year...

Budget Responsibility presents a upside surprise in its borrowing schedule, the Spring Statement is likely to be a non-event for the GBP. We are neutral on the GBP this week," ANZ adds.

• AUD/USD dipped to 0.7095 overnight, buyers emerged, 0.7132 then traded

• Pair pulled back, NY opened just below 0.7110, pair close to flat early NY

• Rally off low aided by softer US yields , copper & silver gains

• Pull back from the high aided by USD/CNH rally & AUD/JPY's drop

• A daily doji candle formed, suggests indecision but other bullish signals remain

• Pair consolidating recent gains while above the 10- & 21-DMA is a bull sign

• Rising monthly RSI, hold above January's monthly add to bullish signals

• US Jan. PPI, Feb. Chicago PMI are data risks in NY's morning
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD has traded a 37 pip range thus far Friday; 0.7095-0.7132

• The peak of that range is three pips shy of Thursday's two-week high

• Thursday's low was 0.7067 (as risk appetite soured, to detriment of AUD)

• China hobbles yuan (AUD is often used as a liquid proxy for CNY)

• Fed chair nominee Warsh's path to out-of-the-gate rate cuts could be narrowing

• U.S. jobs report due next week; February NFP expected at 60k (Reuters poll)

•
AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)