• NY opened near 1.1480 after EUR/USD traded 1.1494-1.1471 overnight

• EUR/USD rallied early as USD, US yields , USD/CNH slid

• Rallies in stocks & upward moves in gold, silver contributed to buoying EUR/USD

• 1.1496 traded, the pair then fell as USD, yields firmed & spreads widened

• EUR/USD neared 1.1465 in NY's afternoon, it traded down -0.17% late in the day

• Techs lean bearish; RSIs indicate downward momentum, pair is below 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs

• Bear flag on daily charts, move below 61.8% Fib of 1.1325-1.1711 reinforce bear signals
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7130 after 0.7118 traded overnight, pair rallied in early action

• USD, US yield, USD/CNH drops & upward moves in gold, silver copper buoyed

• Equity gains and drops in oil prices also contributed to AUD/USD's buoyancy

• 0.7140 traded, sellers then emerged as USD, yields firmed & gold, silver fell

• AUD/USD turned lower, neared 0.7120, sat nearby late, was down -0.04%

• Daily RSI diverged on the 3-session high & a daily inverted hammer formed
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research discusses the USD outlook into October.

"We see the front-end repricing keeping the USD supported into October but are wary of chasing it. USD shorts had accumulated steadily into the meeting and the market has repeatedly shown a willingness to fade strong US data, so the initial move likely owes more to short-covering than fresh longs. The long end remains the constraint. Warsh attributes the sell-off there to economic strength, capex competition and geopolitics, not policy. Heavier issuance alongside rising US interest costs is increasingly USD-negative rather than supportive. With no forward guidance to price a deeper cycle, we treat the break higher as tactical," ANZ notes.

"Overall we see mild upside risks for the DXY in the week ahead , though its likely to be contained around 101," ANZ adds.

• GBP/USD pulls back from 1.3400 during NY trade. Range 1.3368-1.3399

• USD holds onto the post-Fed constructive tone, underpinning the pullback

• That said, cable does still appear to be carving a higher-low, which could offer a short-term reprieve

• Rebound setup would be invalidated on a break below the late-July low at 1.3274

• A decisive break lower opens the path toward the 2026 low near 1.3140

• Overall, ranges remain tight but with a slight bearish lean
GBPUSD hourly chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Credit Agricole CIB Research maintains a bullish bias on the USD in the near-term.

"The USD near-term outlook would also depend on its attractiveness as a safe- haven, and next week investors will focus on the outcome of the US-China summit & the evolving situation in the Middle East. Any potential re-escalation of global trade and/or geopolitical tensions could burnish the appeal of the high-yielding, safe-haven King of FX. We note, however, that most of the portfolio inflows into the US so far this year have been dominated by purchases of risk-correlated assets. This has weakened the hitherto strong positive correlation between the USD and risk aversion, in our view," CACIB notes.

'In all, we maintain a constructive outlook on the USD in the very near term. While the latest FX price action meant that the USD has started to ‘close the gap’ to its relative rate and yield appeal vs the rest of G10, it continues to trade at a huge discount vs these fundamental drivers," CACIB adds.

(Updates)

• US-listed cryptocurrency stocks rally as bitcoin touches more than a seven-month high

• Bitcoin , the world's largest cryptocurrency, gains 4.7% to $84,890.60

• Crypto exchange Coinbase Global rises 7.2%, while bitcoin bull Strategy jumps 9.6%

• Trading platform Robinhood Markets ahead 5%, while Webull adds 4%

• Crypto miners also gain ground: Riot Platforms 3.8%, Mara Holdings 3.9%, Bit Digital 3.6%

• Shares of American Bitcoin , backed by two eldest sons of President Trump, surge 7.2%

• Stablecoin issuer Circle Internet leaps 7.7%, BTC mining machine maker Canaan soars 15.9%

• ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF adds 4.5%; iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF rises 4.6%

• Including session's move, BTC down 3% YTD

(Reporting by Anand Gopal in Bengaluru)

JP Morgan likes tactical long USD/CAD exposure this week.

USDCAD is trading firmer this morning, helped by a softer tone in oil. More importantly, our flow data over the past week has shown persistent CAD selling from both real money and hedge fund accounts," JPM notes

"Following last week's hawkish Fed, the case for being long the lower-yielders, including CAD, has strengthened. At the same time, with oil already trading near recent highs, the hurdle for another meaningful leg higher looks increasingly demanding, which should help limit CAD support from the commodity side. As such, we remain comfortable holding long of USDCAD this week," JPM adds.

Goldman Sachs Research discusses USD/JPY near- and medium-term outlook.

"With the global backdrop remaining a source of downward pressure on JPY-which should persist if the Fed hikes again in October as our economists expect further reduces the case to be short USD/JPY tactically," GS notes.

"We still see clearer long-term asymmetry in USD/JPY downside, which has been reinforced by the latest rally, for three reasons. First, elevated risk of intervention remains with a reported rate check by Japan in the hours following the BoJ press conference. Second, even faster BoJ hikes could still come if the data warrant it, though our economists' baseline is a bit slower than what is currently priced.  Third, there remain higher odds of shifting portfolio flows over time," GS adds.

• The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can often draw and contain the FX spot price

• 1.1500 strikes feature heavily on the EUR/USD FX option strike expiry calendar this week

• Monday has €552 million at 1.1500, although the bigger amounts are between 1.1470-80 on €1.8 billion

• Tuesday has a huge €2 billion at 1.15, Wednesday €2.5 billion, Thursday €2.1 billion and Friday €1.1 billion at 1.1500

• If nothing else can influence the FX spot market this week, the hedging of those 1.1500 options may dominate FX
EUR/USD FX option strikes expiring September 21-25

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY buoyant as yen long grew big before BOJ's dovish hike, but intervention threat persists

• Reported "rate checks" helped a large upper shadow to be formed on Friday's USD/JPY candle

• Spot failed to sustain Friday's break above 157.53 Fibo, 61.8% retrace of 160.39-152.89 (Sept) fall

• However, the continued trading above the 156.64 level keeps the technical bias on the upside

• 156.64 level is a 50% retrace of the same 160.39-152.89 (EBS) drop

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD traded a rough 1.15-20 range for first half of 2026

• The pair appears to have slipped into a lower range

• Mid-point of the developing range could be around 1.1550

• July low 1.1325, August peak 1.1711, Sep range 1.1455-1.1654

• Current drop stretched below 1.1500 base 20-day Bollingers

• Volatility is very low which suggests little movement ahead

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD has traded a 12 pip range thus far Monday; 0.7118-0.7130

• Those parameters are within Friday's 0.7104-0.7136 range

• 0.7136 is high water-mark since Wednesday's four-week low of 0.7075

• Wednesday's low, which 100DMA helped define, was plumbed on Fed's hawkish hike

• RBA's Bullock, Hunter and Ross are all due to speak on Tuesday

• Australia's Big Four banks all expect RBA to raise rates next week (Sept 29)

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(removes link in 2nd bullet)

• Cable has traded a 19.5 pip range thus far Monday; 1.33735-1.3393

• 1.3393 is 4.5 pips shy of Friday's peak (1.33375 was Friday's low)

• Friday's peak was scaled as USD/JPY retreated on FX news

• Nikkei reported Japan conducted rate checks in the FX market

• Friday's GBP/USD low was half-a-pip above Thursday's seven-week low

• Thursday's low was plumbed after BoE rate hold/QT pause news

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Monday September 21

• EUR/USD: 1.1420-25 (350M), 1.1450-55 (457M), 1.1470-80 (1.8BLN), 1.1500 (552M)

• USD/CHF: 0.8150-60 (600M), 0.8185 (160M), 0.8300 (543M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3350-55 (222M), 1.3390 (154M), 1.3445-50 (186M). EUR/GBP: 0.8550 (332M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7100-15 (434M). NZD/USD: 0.5700 (375M), 0.5745-50 (301M)

• USD/CAD: 1.4000 (387M), 1.4050-60 (504M)

• USD/JPY: 155.50 (900M), 156.00 (720M), 157.00 (2.5BLN), 157.50 (301M), 158.00 (265M)

• AUD/JPY: 110.00 (280M). EUR/JPY: 179.75 (230M)

• Friday's FX options wrap - Vol drought grips G10 FX - JPY intervention risk returns (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY steady in Asia after trading in a narrow 156.58-157.11 range

• Opened 156.83, rallied on weekend news of Houthi strikes on Riyadh

• Failed to sustain gains as oil fell 2.3% on hopes of US-Iran talks

• Trump says he may meet Iran's president at UN assembly

• Investors relieved as Saudi Aramco ramps up exports via Hormuz Strait

• USD slides to 156.58 before demand surfaces, recovery to 156.94 ensues

• Downside limited as Fed seen as more hawkish on policy than BOJ

• Fed's Kashkari says inflation is still too high in 'all aspects' of economy

• Threat of Japanese intervention in thin markets likely to cap rallies

• Support 156.50-60, 156.00-10, resistance 157.50, 158.00-10;

• Japanese markets closed Monday through Wedensday
JPY:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD flat Mon as three-day JP market holiday period begins

• WTI -2.2% despite Houthi attacks on Riyadh & fresh U.S.-Iran threats

• Investors put faith in Saudi capacity to restore exports quickly

• RBA's Hunter, Bullock & Monetary Policy Board member Ross all speaking Tue

• Futures pricing implies 95.8% probability of 25 bps RBA hike Sep 29

• AUD likely to consolidate between 0.7078 100-DMA & 0.7165 21-DMA pre-RBA

• Range Asia 0.7118-295 support 0.7078 0.6920, resistance 0.72825 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY -0.1% in quiet holiday-thinned trading; Japanese markets off Mon-Wed

• Weighed down by lower oil prices; US crude -1% in Asia after 1.6% Fri drop

• Downside limited as Fed seen as more hawkish on policy than BOJ

• BOJ 25bps Fri hike seen as relatively modest; dissents disappoint investors

• Fed's Kashkari says inflation is still too high in 'all aspects' of economy

• Threat of Japanese intervention in thin markets likely to cap rallies

• Support 156.50-60, 156.00-10, resistance 157.50, 158.00-10, 158.60-65

• Asia range 156.68-157.11
G7 inflation:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD -0.1% early Mon, down a cumulative 4.5% from Aug 21 0.5988 high

• Break below 0.5700-05 support zone will trigger slide toward 0.5627 ytd low

• RBNZ Governor Anna Breman scheduled to provide economic update Tue

• 3-day run of JP holidays to impact liquidity in Asia this week

• U.S. & Iran trade fresh threats as Houthis attack Saudi capital Riyadh

• U.S. President Trump to meet CN leader Xi Jinping in Washington this week

• Range NZ 0.57195-24, support 0.5700-05 0.5627, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD flat Mon, activity subdued ahead of three-day JP holiday period

• U.S. & Iran trade fresh threats as Houthis attack Saudi capital Riyadh

• Brent crude drifts to $103.73 a barrel after early Mon spike

• U.S. President Trump to meet CN leader Xi Jinping in Washington this week

• EUR looking to extend run of moderately positive closes post-Fed hike

• Break above 1.1500 likely to spur mean reversion toward 1.1527 55-DMA

• EU Sep consumer confidence due Wed, Reuters poll consensus -16.5

• Range Asia 1.1479-94, support 1.1353 1.1325, resistance 1.1710 1.1850
EUR Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.2% from Fri 0.7104 low, investors pondering AU's sticky inflation

• Futures pricing implies quarter-percent RBA hike Sep 29 now near certain

• RBA's Hunter, Bullock & Monetary Policy Board member Ross all speaking Tue

• Houthis strike Riyadh as U.S. & Iran trade threats of fresh hostilities

• Chinese leader Xi Jinping scheduled to meet Trump in Washington this week

• AUD 18-month uptrend intact for now, but risk of downside break growing

• Range Asia 0.7118-225 support 0.7078 0.6920, resistance 0.72825 0.7661
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD net G10 IMM spec long cut dramatically, -$13.8bn, in the Sept 9-15 period; $IDX +0.86%

• USD under significant pressure pre-Fed; hawkish Fed shift likely to spur USD bid in current period

• EUR$ -0.71% in period, specs +15.6k contracts now -27k; hawkish ECB prods EUR buying

• $JPY +0.76%, specs +109.6k contracts now +120.3k; MoF intervention stirs yen bid

• GBP$ -0.48%, specs +121 contracts now -58.7k; less-hawkish BoE, fiscal concerns weigh

• $CAD +0.92%, specs 32.9k contracts now -37.6k; Fed-BoC rate convergence sees CAD shorts unwind

• AUD$ -1.3%, specs -4.04k contracts now -38.9k; Oil price rise cuts global growth view, weighs on oz

Majors w/IMM Performance Chart:


IMM Position Table as of 9-15:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP$ firm in NY afternoon trade, +0.26% at 1.3391; Friday range 1.3394-1.3338

• Early slide to 7-week low by 1.3377 reversed amid talk of JP MoF checking rates

• Cable had been under pressure after Fed hike/BoE hold this week

• STIR futures now show near 60% odds for Fed and BoE hikes in Oct/Nov

• LSEG's IRPR indicates BoE more hawkish in 2027; BoE +101bp, Fed +77 by Dec 2027

• UK fiscal concern heightened ahead of October's UK Autumn Budget; 10-yr gilt at 5.3%

• GBP$ res 1.3394 Friday high, 1.3429 falling 100-HMA, 1.3452 50% Fib of 1.3567-1.3337

• Supt 1.3337 daily low Sept 17, 1.3290 weekly cloud base, 1.3274 daily low Jul 28

GBP Chart:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research discusses USD/JPY outlook in light of this week's September BoJ meeting.

"We see scope over the near-term for the US dollar to advance further versus the yen. The reaction today to the BoJ communications and Governor Ueda’s press conference highlighted the fact that current market pricing may have become excessive. The bar was low for the BoJ delivering a less hawkish message,"MUFG notes.

"Is the BoJ moving faster now? Governor Ueda hinted that might be the case but not enough to convince the markets. We expect the next hike in January 2027 and then in June, taking the policy rate to 1.75%. Near-term USD/JPY could advance further but the rates curve is reasonably priced and further hikes and intervention risks will curtail the scope for the move higher in USD/JPY. We would still expect USD/JPY buying to fade ahead of a break above the 160.00-level," MUFG adds.

• Shares of cryptocurrency and blockchain-related companies jump as bitcoin and ethereum rally

• Bitcoin, the world's biggest cryptocurrency, jump 5.7% to $80,941.54; ether leaps 5.9% to $2,594.32

• Crypto mkt value rose despite Fed, BoJ rate hikes — suggesting they were priced in, says Alice Liu, head of research, CoinMarketCap

• "More important question now is how higher funding costs affect positioning" - Liu

• USD gains against the yen on Friday the BOJ rate hike, but investors doubtful of further increases [FRX/]

• Crypto exchange Coinbase Global jumps 11.2%, while bitcoin bull Strategy soars ~12.9%

• Trading platform Robinhood Markets gains 7.8%

• Crypto miners Riot Platforms Inc MARA Holdings , Hut 8 and Bit Digital ahead 3%-10% each

• BTC buyer Strategy leaps 12.12%

• BTC mining machine makers Ebang International and Canaan Inc climb 7.8% and 20%, respectively

• ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF adds 5.9%; iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF rises 6%

• YTD, including session, BTC down 7.6% , ETH down 7.7%

(Reporting by Darshan Kumar in Bengaluru)