• USD/JPY has seen a 156.48-157.17 EBS range on Monday. It remains stuck within the daily cloud

• Spot failed to close under the cloud, which spans 156.29-158.68, repeatedly in recent trading sessions

• Japan's intervention success will likely be fleeting, those repeated failures underpin USD/JPY

• USD/JPY and yen crosses are better bid but intervention watch continues

• Japan bets on Washington, BOJ for extra punch in yen battle

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is above +0.5 (pairs moving in tandem)

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable holds below 1.36 before potentially crucial speech from UK PM Starmer

• Former UK minister Catherine West threatens leadership challenge

• 1.3548 was early Asia low (fraction shy of Friday low). 1.36379 was pre-weekend high

• Safe-haven dollar gains after Trump says Iran peace offer "unacceptable"

• CFTC data: net GBP short rose 5% to 7-week high of 63,908 contracts in week to May 5

• Reuters Breakingviews-How the United Kingdom could rejoin the EU

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Traders pare bets on euro rising from $5.2 billion to $4.7 billion

• Bullish wagers reached $6 billion in April

• Pair currently trapped between Apr 17 peak 1.1849 and Apr 30 low 1.1650

• Top and bottom 20-day Bollinger Bands (1.1813-1.1737) may contain

• Quiet heightens chance move toward daily cloud twist near 1.1660 May 21

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/14.00 GMT on Monday May 11

• EUR/USD: 1.1690-1.1700 (1.8BLN), 1.0705-10 (665M), 1.1725-30 (1.5BLN), 1.1745-55 (3BLN)

• 1.1760-70 (1.2BLN), 1.1800 (1BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.7790-0.7800 (303M), 0.7840 (268M). EUR/CHF: 0.9150 (340M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8670-75 (675M), 0.8700 (510M). GBP/USD: 1.3670-80 (657M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7145-50 (691M), 0.7165-75 (482M), 0.7200 (1BLN), 0.7250 (263M), 0.7300 (941M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5840 (645M), 0.5890 (194M). AUD/NZD: 121.50-55 (1.1BLN)

• USD/CAD: 1.3650-60 (6.8BLN)

• USD/JPY: 156.00 (2.1BLN), 156.70-75 (1.2BLN), 157.50 (651M), 158.00 (677M), 158.50-60 (1.8BLN)(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD down 0.3% in Asia as U.S.-Iran peace talks remain elusive

• Higher oil weighs; WTI crude up 5% Mon, lifts U.S. 10-yr yield 3 bps

• Trump calls Iran's response to US peace proposal 'unacceptable'

• UK's Starmer begins political fightback, puts Europe ties at heart of reset

• Weakened by local elections, Starmer is challenged by former minister

• Starmer speaks Monday, followed by the “King’s Speech” on Wednesday

• UK jobs market cools as Iran war hits outlook, REC survey shows

• UK data Thu eyed; Q1 & Mar GDP, industrial & manufacturing output, trade due

• Trump's summit with Xi in Beijing, U.S. inflation data also key this week

• Support 1.3540-50, 1.3510-15, resistance 1.3625-35, 1.3660

• Friday range 1.35475-1.3638, Asia 1.3548-1.3625
The UK isn't just shifting right but getting more fragmented:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.2% Mon as CN inflation runs hotter than expected & Iran weighs

• CN Apr PPI 2.8% y/y (poll +1.6%), CPI +1.2% y/y (poll +0.9%) & +0.2% m/m

• U.S.-Iran peace prospects fading as both sides reject respective proposals

• AUD uptrend remains valid but may drift sideways before attempting extension

• AU Q1 wage price index due Wed, gives guidance on sticky services inflation

• Range Asia 0.7205-55, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7283 0.7661
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Seems market at one on USD/JPY downside sans more FX intervention

• Unconfirmed reports puts two interventions totalling Y10 tln (@$65 bln)

• Downside limited to 155.00 on May 6, pushes up above 157.00 to spur more?

• US TsySec Bessent in Japan from today and will meet the FinMin, PM tomorrow

• Bessent-Katayama meeting in focus, will he be OK with more FX action?

• Bessent has stated need for BOJ to hike rates, will he press again?

• USD/JPY 156.48-96 EBS so far in Asia, in 156.28-158.68 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Resistance from flattening 100-DMA in cloud at 157.35

• Hourly chart shows resistance just above too at descending 157.43 200-HMA

• Dip buying interest from the Mrs Watanabes, other specs still

• Seems many choosing to add to JPY shorts rather than bailing

• JGB-US Treasury short rate differentials tad wider recently, in 2s @253 bps

• Longer rate differentials still on narrow side, in 10s @190 bps

• Massive $2.1 bln in option expiries today at 156.00, 156.65-75 $1.3 bln too

• These likely to help contain action, help support the USD/JPY downside

• Related comments , , ,

• And , also , on US NFP/economy

• US markets , , ,

• On the Fed , , on Bessent/BOJ
USD/JPY:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries this week:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/KRW rises to 1467.8, but off Mon peak 1469.4; 21 DMA 1473.4 caps

• Jumps out of Bollinger downtrend channel 1463.8, tracking USD/JPY

• Won weakens despite KOSPI spiking +4.6% to another record high

• South Korea's early May exports surge 43.7% y/y

• USD underpinned by US NFP beat, though job strains seen

• US yields climb too, as oil prices with with Iran stress
KRW


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD -0.2% Mon as progress on U.S.-Iran peace deal screams to a halt

• Energy crisis fears set to re-escalate, Brent crude futures +2.7%

• Trump says proposal 'totally unacceptable', Iran refuses 'excessive demands'

• NZD buyers emerging ahead 0.5930, former resistance becoming support zone

• CN Apr inflation updates due Mon, Reuters polls PPI +1.6% y/y, CPI +0.9% y/y

• U.S. Apr non-farm payrolls better than expected Fri, 115k (poll +62K)

• Range NZ 0.5937-515, support 0.5680 0.5580, resistance 0.6090-95 0.6120
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD -0.2% Mon in wake of Trump's rejection of Iranian proposal

• Iran refuses 'excessive demands' from U.S., peace prospects dissipate

• Putin thinks Ukraine war coming to an end, 3-day ceasefire announced

• EUR's building run towards 1.1850 resistance at mercy of Iran war news

• Euro zone Q1 flash employment and Mar industrial production due Wed

• U.S. Apr non-farm payrolls beat expectations Fri at 115k (Reuters poll +62K)

• Range Asia 1.1742-94, support 1.1650 1.1409, resistance 1.1850 1.1930
EUR Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

(Amends word in first line, adds charts)

• AUD/USD -0.4% early Mon as U.S.-Iran peace prospects deteriorate rapidly

• Trump says Iran's response totally unacceptable; Iran says they do not care

• U.S. Apr non-farm payrolls beat expectations Fri at 115k (Reuters poll +62K)

• AUD bouncing from lower hourly Bollinger band but downside pressure remains

• AU Q1 wage price index due Wed, gives guidance on sticky services inflation

• Range Asia 0.7205-55, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7283 0.7661
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study


AUD Hourly 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD net spec G10 long -$4.48bn in Apr 29-May 5 IMM period, +$9.4bn; $IDX -0.07%

• Mideast conflict, oil/inflation function remains primary focus for FX/FI markets

• US-Iran ceasefire taking shots but holding for now, stirs USD haven unwind; risk rallies

• EUR$ -0.19% in period, specs -3.5k contracts now +32.2k; ECB 2026 hikes likely sap growth

• $JPY -1.05%, specs +40.3k contracts now +61.7k; 2nd round of intervention lifts JPY

• GBP$ +0.18%, specs -3.3k contract now -64k; GBP specs add to GBP short, res 1.3650 area

• $CAD -0.42%, specs +23.8k contracts now +14.7k; shorts unwind on high oil, hawkish BoC

• AUD$ +0.02%, specs +6.8k contracts now +78.7k; risk rally lifts commods, RBA hawkish

• Headline risk remains prevalent amid tenuous Mideast ceasefire, oil down but near $100/bbl

Majors w/IMM Performance Charts:


IMM Position Table:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7235 after 0.7200 traded overnight, rally extended in NY

• USD, US yields softened after the US April employment report

• USD/CNH hit a fresh session low while gold, silver and stocks rallied sharply

• AUD/USD traded 0.7249 before dipping slightly, it sat near 0.7245 late in the day

• Techs lean bullish; RSIs are rising, pair trades above the rising 10- & 21-DMAs

• Consolidation on daily chart & widening 20-month Bolli bands add to bull signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Nomura Research discusses the scope of the last round of Japan's MoF JPY intervention.

"The MOF appears to have conducted around USD30bn of foreign exchange intervention between 1 and 6 May. USD/JPY remained flat around the 156 mark, as caution over potential Japanese currency intervention has kept its gains capped. Ongoing geopolitical developments, such as US-Iran communications, have also kept the market in wait-and-see mode," Nomura notes.

"Recent data indicate the Japanese Ministry of Finance conducted around USD62bn of FX intervention between 30 April and 6 May, with ample reserves remaining for further action if needed.  Forthcoming high-level meetings between US and Japanese officials, along with statements from top currency official Mimura rejecting limits on intervention frequency are supporting JPY," Nomura adds.

(Fixes typo in headline) The AUD/USD pair is likely to experience a temporary pause in its bullish trend before resuming its broader upward trajectory.

While the pair held above 0.7200 on Friday, suggesting a continuation of its bull trend, momentum indicators reveal a potential need for a breather. The daily and monthly Relative Strength Indices (RSIs) are rising but approaching overbought levels, indicating that a pullback may be necessary to unwind this condition.

Further supporting the notion of a pause is the formation of May's monthly doji candle, coupled with daily charts that illustrate a consolidative phase since the pair reached a nearly four-year high earlier this week.

Despite this potential slowdown, technical signals still point to a strong underlying trend. The widening 20-month Bollinger Bands, along with rising middle and upper lines, reinforce the bullish sentiment.

Moreover, AUD/USD's ability to remain above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the February 2021 high to the April 2025 low bolsters the confidence of long-positioned investors. Once the anticipated pause concludes, several targets would emerge, including the psychological 0.7500 level, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7512, and the yearly high of 0.7661 established in 2022.
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research likes selling GBP/AUD on rallies in the near-term.

"GBP crosses are more compelling, from a tactical perspective. In particular, GBP/AUD at 1.87 is attracting attention. The pair has remained in a well-defined downtrend over the past year. The rebound seen in March increasingly appears corrective rather than the start of a sustained reversal, especially as the pair continues to trade below its 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages. Upside moves are losing momentum near resistance levels, keeping the broader bearish structure intact," ANZ notes.

"Technically, the bearish trend remains, unless GBP/AUD is able to sustain a break above the 1.90–1.91 resistance. Until then, we view short-term recoveries as opportunities to re-enter short positions, with scope for a retest towards the 1.85 region, which was last seen in June 2023 over the medium term and is our Q2 end forecast for the pair," ANZ adds.

• Ether rallied to 2299.44 earlier in the session, neared the 10-DMA, sellers emerged

• Ether turned lower and broke below Thursday's daily low, hit 2266.98

• The pair was down -0.55% in NY's morning despite upbeat risk sentiment

• Drops in USD, US yields , USD/CNH & oil couldn't inspire Ether bulls

• Buying of USD alternatives like gold, silver & rally in stocks also didn't inspire bulls

• Technical signals are growing more bearish for Ether

• It holds below the 10-DMA, daily RSI is falling & monthly RSI is about to turn downward

• A monthly gravestone doji is in place for May which reinforces the bearish signals

• Consolidation of drop from January's high persists, adds to bearish sentiment

• Feb. monthly low is key; if breaks 2025 low, psychological 1200.00 are in focus
eth


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses USDJPY technical outlook.

"FX intervention by the Bank of Japan to strengthen the yen pushed USDJPY lower. Spot is testing uptrend support at 156.37-156.02 (trendline and Ichimoku cloud).Brief intraday breaks below support have been bought, with price continuing to close above 156. As long as this holds, uptrend support remains intact, with scope for a tactical rebound toward the top of the cloud at 158.60-158.85," BofA notes.

"However, MACD has crossed down and Ichimoku may, too. An intact price uptrend with bearish trend signal(s) suggest choppy, tactical trading until realignment. A daily close below 156 would validate bearish signals, opening downside toward the 200‑day SMA (~154.27) and potentially the Fibonacci retracement near 152.76," BofA adds.

CIBC Research discusses its reaction to today's Canada labor market report.

"The Canadian labour market continued its weak start to 2026 in April, with a third decline in employment within the first four months of the year seeing the unemployment rate rise further. The -18K decline in jobs came against consensus expectations for a 10K increase and, combined with a slight uptick in participation, resulted in a rise in the unemployment rate to 6.9%. The unemployment rate increased most for young people aged 15-24, but also continued to drift higher for core aged (25-54) workers," CIBC notes.

"For the Bank of Canada, evidence that slack within the labour market is, if anything, increasing rather than reducing, should limit the ability for the oil price shock to spread into wider inflationary pressure. We continue to see the BoC holding interest rates at their current level throughout 2026," CIBC adds.

• EUR/USD 0.38%, USD/JPY -0.18%, GBP/USD 0.49%, AUD/USD 0.35%

• S&P E-minis 0.41%, DAX -0.66%, Nikkei 225 -0.19%, FTSE -0.16%

• EUR/USD traders are poorly positioned for the rise in oil prices

• USD/JPY downside is limited despite repeated interventions

• GBP/USD vaults 1.36; UK PM Starmer vows to fight on

• AUD/USD rises to intra-day high on U.S. dollar supply

• Option expiries . U.S. Open
(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

May 8 (Reuters) - British train timetables detailing departures and arrivals are updated every mid-to-late May. The question sterling option traders would like answered is whether mid-to-late May might also see British Prime Minister Keir Starmer set out a timetable for his departure from Downing Street. Starmer's Labour Party suffered heavy losses in Thursday's local elections that deepened doubts over his ability to govern, although Starmer said "I am not going to walk away".

Before the election results started to arrive, the Times newspaper said UK energy minister Ed Miliband had advised Starmer to consider setting out a timetable for his exit. Miliband is a perceived 'kingmaker' should a vacancy arise in Downing Street, and a mooted finance minister-in-waiting.

One reason why a timetable would be handy is that Andy Burnham and Angela Rayner - the two frontrunners to succeed Starmer should he go - both have hurdles to clear before they can mount leadership bids. In Burnham's case, that means winning a seat in a by-election - which is by no means a given due to Labour's poor poll ratings.

Related:
GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD hits 0.7236 intra-day high after rising from 0.7200 on USD supply

• 0.7200 was Asia low, after safe-haven USD rose on flare-up in Persian Gulf

• Thursday's high was 0.7264 - before renewed US-Iran hostilities

• Resistance levels beyond 0.7264 include 0.7277 and 0.73

• 0.7277 was Wednesday's four-year peak (0.7282 was June 2022 high)

• U.S. jobs data due at 1230 GMT; April NFP forecast at 62k. Jobless rate f/c 4.3%

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD remains resilient despite latest Mid-East tensions, as traders focus on upcoming key drivers.

• Hedging activity linked to huge EUR 2.2 billion 1.1750 option strike helps contain ahead of its 10am New York expiry

• Market participants are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of US jobs data due at 12:30 GMT, helping to contain FX ahead

• Tame overnight volatility risk premiums suggest dealers are not bracing for a significant surprise in US jobs data

• Broader EUR/USD implied volatility continues to languish near pre Mid-East conflict lows - reflects calmer climes

• Risk reversals pare downside strike premiums and are now close to a neutral directional bias
EUR/USD FXO implied volatility


EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable holds below 1.36 after dropping through the level on Thursday

• Drop through 1.36 spurred by Iran-US clashes (dollar is safe-haven)

• 1.3633 was Thursday's high - before the flare-up in the Middle East

• There is a big 1.3600 option expiry for the 10am ET NY cut (1400 GMT)

• UK's Labour Party punished in local elections, raising pressure on PM Starmer

• US jobs data due at 1230 GMT; April NFP forecast at 62k. Jobless rate f/c 4.3%

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)