• AUD/USD oscillates, but finishes Thur flat as DXY & UST yields soften

• Fed Governor Waller says more FFR hikes needed, but pace is flexible

• Hurricane Isaias shutters some U.S. oil production, WTI up 3.4% to $91.25

• Trump rules out fresh attacks on Iran in lead up to U.S. midterm elections

• RBA Sep meeting minutes due for release Tue, will be closely scrutinized

• AUD still entrenched in month-long downtrend, 0.6865 support the next target

• Overnight range 0.6933-73 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7052 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA


DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NY opened near 1.1185 then extended its overnight drop in early trading

• 1.1172 traded but bears ran out of gas as USD buying abated

• US yields turned lower to help drive broad-based USD selling

• Gold gains, silver's upward move, USD/CNH drop from its high reinforced USD sales

• EUR/USD hit 1.1226, sat near 1.1215 late in the session and traded up +0.16%

• Techs lean bearish; pair below 10-DMA & consolidating drop from Sept. 25 high

• Falling monthly RSI, widening Bolli bands adds to bearish signals
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research discusses EUR/GBP outlook.

"The pound has strengthened sharply against the euro since the end of last month as the euro sell-off has broadened out. It has resulted in EUR/GBP falling from just above the 0.8600 to a fresh year-to-date low yesterday of 0.8448. EUR/GBP is moving back closer to levels that were in place prior to President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs announcement back in April of last year when it was trading between 0.8200 and 0.8400 between September 2024 and March 2025. Negative development in the euro-zone have boosted the relative appeal of the pound," MUFG notes.

"While fiscal concerns are also in focus in the UK with 10-year Gilt yields hitting their highest levels since prior to the Global Financial Crisis in 2007, they are not as acute as in France currently. Media reports have suggested that the Labour government is well aware of challenging global bond market conditions ahead of this month’s budget scheduled for 28^th October which is encouraging them to play it safe as they seek to limit the risk of negative market reaction. A development that would help to ease downside risks for the pound," MUFG adds. 

• NY opened near 0.6945 after AUD/USD fell overnight, the drop initially extended

• USD, US yields & USD/CNH gains helped AUD/USD fall to 0.6933

• USD selling emerged and US yields turned lower

• Gold added to gains while silver & copper lifted off their lows

• AUD/USD hit 0.6973 then neared 0.6960 late, it traded near flat in NY's afternoon

• Hold below the 10-DMA, consolidation, falling daily RSI are bearish tech signs
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research discusses EUR outlook.

"Credit-Based Pressures on EUR Nearing Their Limit: Widening in OATs has outstripped fundamentals and the French presidential election is over six months away; fiscal trajectories elsewhere in Europe are more favourable; aggregate spreads entered the energy shock on firmer footing; growth is resilient; European banks are better capitalised to deal with sovereign bond stress now than in previous episodes; and the ECB if well-equipped with anti-fragmentation tools if necessary. EURUSD's range-break lower has likely exacerbated the move, and we view recent broad Dollar strength as likely to fade near term," GS notes.

"Divided Outlook on G10 Crosses: A more durable shift in ECB hike pricing may dampen the Euro’s recovery, and over longer horizons we think the outlook on G10 crosses remains heavily divided – we expect continued Euro downside versus high-carry energy exporters AUD and NOK, but argue the outlook is brighter versus CHF and GBP," GS adds.

EUR/USD remains under pressure as French government bond yields stay elevated amid fiscal and election worries. So far, the ECB has given no sign that it will step in to ease the selling pressure on those bonds. As a result, buyers are likely to stay on the sidelines rather than catch the falling knife. They may not return until the pair nears the 1.0500–1.0600 area or until concerns over France's fiscal and election outlook fade.

Technical signals suggest the downtrend can extend. RSIs and widening Bollinger Bands point to more volatility and continued downward momentum. The pair's ongoing consolidation of its drop from the September 25 high reinforces the bearish outlook, as does its hold below the declining 10- and 21-day moving averages. Sentiment also appears fragile hurt because rallies within the downtrend from the January 2026 high have been sold consistently.

EUR/USD is currently hovering above structural support in the 1.1050–1.1100 zone. This area contains a series of monthly highs and lows going back to 2023, as well as the 50% retracement of the February 2025 to January 2026 rally.

The more important level, however, is the 1.0500–1.0600 zone. Structural support sits near the psychological 1.0500 mark. The zone also contains the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.0125–1.2084 rally and the base of the rising trend channel from the 2022 yearly low. Significant and sustained EUR/USD buying may therefore not appear until these levels are reached.
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Crédit Agricole CIB macro and rate strategists discuss different political scenarios ahead of the 2027 vote and complement their analysis by simulating the EUR impact under the different scenarios.

"Our results suggest that the EUR could recover under several scenarios including our baseline – eg, either an RN or centrist president coupled with either a centrist or RN majority in the legislature – and some more positive outcomes – eg, a centrist president with either a technocrat, centrist or RN government. We see the OAT, BTP and Bono yield spreads to Bunds tighten notably to push EUR/USD back towards 1.17 or higher, consistent with our current EUR/USD forecasts for 2027," CACIB notes.

"In contrast, should anti-establishment parties to the right or left of the French political spectrum end up controlling both the presidency and the legislature and are able to exercise fiscal restraint, our simulation results point at EUR/USD trading between 1.12 and 1.14.

The most EUR-negative outcomes involve a hung parliament accompanied by either policy paralysis or runaway fiscal deficit. We see EUR/USD falling towards 1.05 under these outcomes," CACIB adds.

Bank of America Global Research flags an important shift in Yen trading during Tokyo hours.

"The yen entered a depreciation cycle in 2021, with USD/JPY reaching 164 in July 2026. However, in our view, the nature of yen weakness changed in 2025. We examine the issue through the lens of intraday USD/JPY price action. From 2021 through 2024, the yen weakened during both Tokyo and offshore trading hours. By contrast, the depreciation from 2Q25 to 2Q26 was driven exclusively by offshore trading hours," BofA notes. 

"The stabilization of the yen during Tokyo hours is consistent with an improvement in Japan's balance of payments (BoP). By contrast, offshore-led yen weakness likely reflected the AI rally and the Bank of Japan (BoJ)'s still dovish policy stance. The offshore bias toward yen weakness has been subdued since the coordinated intervention in July and the market has shifted toward a strong USD and strong USD environment.

While it remains uncertain whether yen strength in cross-yen pairs will ultimately spill over into USD/JPY, we believe the risk-reward is skewed to the downside for the pair," BofA adds. 

• 1.1213 traded overnight, sellers emerged & EUR/USD then turned lower

• US & French yield gains weighed on EUR/USD

• The US yield gains helped drive USD buying which sank EUR/USD

• Rallies in oil , USD/CNH & drops in equities, silver added weight

• EUR/USD hit 1.1174 in early NY action, it traded down -0.18%

• Techs are bearish; RSIs falling, consolidation of drop from Sep. 25 high persists

• Widening Bolli bands, pair's hold below the 10-DMA reinforce bearish techs

• US jobless claims, US Treasury 30-year auction are risks in NY
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• 0.6968 traded overnight, sellers emerged, AUD/USD then turned lower

• USD, US yield , USD/CNH gains helped drive the pair down

• USD got an added boost on drops in silver, copper and equities

• Sharp rallies in oil fueled risk-off which weighed on AUD/USD

• AUD/USD hit 0.6945 into NY's open, the pair traded down -0.23%

• Hold below 10-DMA, falling daily RSI are bearish tech signals

• US jobless claims & US Treasury 30-year auction are risks in NY
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Oct 8 (Reuters) - The fragile EUR/USD could see a much bigger slump next week, if there is a second weekly close on Friday below a broken retracement level.

EUR/USD is at risk of a deeper slide through the 1.1104 level, a 50% retracement of the 1.0125 to 1.2084 (2025 to 2026) EBS rise, in part due to last week's bearish close below the 1.1336 Fibonacci level, a 38.2% retracement of the same 1.0125 to 1.2084 gain.

The downside bias is being reinforced by the 14-week momentum reading, which has been negative for three weeks straight.

The US dollar bullish cycle is intact and could extend its gains, which would exert downward pressure on EUR/USD.

Note the dollar held near its strongest level in 18 months on Thursday, after hawkish minutes from the US Federal Open Market Committee signalled policymakers viewed inflation as the biggest risk to their outlook.
Weekly Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Brent crude oil jumps $4pb on Thursday above $104 pb

• Higher oil prices undermine currencies of importers like euro

• Brent repeatedly peaked ahead $110 in Sep during peace talks in M/East

• Conflict continues amid an increase in attacks on shipping in the Gulf

• Attacks on tankers in Hormuz hit highest of any week since start of Iran war

• $114.37 key for techs - 78.6% (limit) correction of May-Jul drop

• Test of 2026 high at $126.41 likely if oil rises above $114.37

•
Brent

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD has traded on a 0.69 handle for more than a week

• The traded range since Sept 30 is 0.6904-0.6995

• 0.6904 is 13-week low (on Oct 1); 0.6990 is subsequent high (Tuesday)

• Fed policymakers divided over rate-hike logic in September, minutes show

• Minutes from September's RBA meeting will be published next week

• Fed rate hold expected on Oct 28; RBA rate hold expected on Nov 3

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable drops to test 1.3194 (Wednesday low) as oil prices rise

• US is a net energy exporter; Britain is a net energy importer

• 1.3182 was 14-week low for GBP/USD last week (Oct 1)

• Oct 1 low was respected last Friday (Oct 2), and on Monday

• Fed policymakers divided over rate-hike logic in September, minutes show

• PM Burnham's Labour Party faces challenge from Greens in Starmer's old seat

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Thursday October 8

• EUR/USD: 1.1145-50 (1.2BLN), 1.1165-75 (533M), 1.1190-1.1200 (920M), 1.1210-20 (517M)

• 1.1225 (650M), 1.1275-85 (1.8BLN), 1.1300 (5.6BLN)

• USD/JPY: 157.00 (730M), 158.00 (1.3BLN), 158.40-50 (860M), 158.60 (356M), 158.70-75 (711M), 159.00 (3.2BLN)

• EUR/JPY: 174.0 (450M), 176.00 (895M). AUD/JPY: 110.25 (220M), 110.50 (200M)

• USD/CHF: 0.8325-35 (343M), 0.8375 (311M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6945 (180M), 0.6975 (564M), 0.7100 (370M)

• USD/CAD: 1.4100 (926M), 1.4125 (293M), 1.4250 (313M), 1.4295-1.4300 (630M)

• FX options wrap - Risk protection costs rise again as USD regains footing (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Senco Gold rise 9.6% to 351.50 rupees

• Stock on highest intraday percentage gain since July 27

• Jewellery retailer's Q2 total revenue climbs nearly 31% Y/Y, supported by strong festive demand and increasing customer preference for lightweight jewellery, co says

• Expects strong demand in Q3FY27 from festive and wedding season driven by improving rural sentiment and consumer demand resilience

• Says Q2 gold prices were 28% higher from a year ago and volatile

• Antique Stock Broking expects sequential improvement in gross margin and EBITDA margin

• Stock rated "buy" on avg by six analysts, median PT 483.50 rupees - data compiled by LSEG

• Stock up about 6% YTD

(Reporting by Anushka Rajvedi in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Australia's Ramelius Resources slip as much as 1.9% to A$3.67, their lowest level since September 21

• The gold miner reports prelim Sept-quarter production of 48,839 ounces, compared with 55,013 ounces a year earlier

• Says production was marginally impacted by wet weather

• YTD, stock down 10.9%, including session's moves

(Reporting by Swetha Lakshmi)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Thur as global bond market jitters dampen investor sentiment

• AUD sellers build ahead of 0.7036-51 21/100/200-DMA convergence zone

• European debt concerns weighing on EUR, DXY +0.35% from Wed 101.90 low

• FOMC meeting minutes reveal differing views on reasoning for Sep Fed hike

• Futures markets discount potential for Oct Fed hike, but indicate Dec move

• RBA Sep meeting minutes due for release Tue, will be heavily scrutinized

• Range Asia 0.6955-64 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7052 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 1.8%, hitting their lowest level since September 16

• Sub-index posts its biggest intraday pct fall since October 1

• Gold stocks slide as bullion prices drop to a two-month low, weighed down by elevated US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [GOL/]

• Gold miners Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources down 2.1% and 2%, respectively

• YTD, AXGD down more than 3%

(Reporting by Rudrannsh Mehra in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Australia's BPM Minerals rise as much as 7.1% to A$0.225, their biggest intraday pct gain since September 22

• Precious minerals explorer announces gold find at its Forelands Gold Project in Western Australia

• Shares up 29.4% YTD, including session moves

(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)

• NZD/USD -0.4% from Wed 0.5625 high as DXY climbs 0.4% amid EU debt concerns

• NZD target remains 0.5581 support, break would hasten slide toward 0.5845

• RBNZ Governor Anna Breman speaks Thur, Karen Silk panel discussion Fri

• Futures pricing currently implies 52.9% chance of RBNZ hike on Oct 28

• FOMC meeting minutes reveal differing views on reasons for Sep Fed hike

• Range NZ 0.55985-0.56045, support 0.5581 0.5485, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA


DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

CIBC Research reviews the FOMC minutes from the September meeting.

"The September FOMC minutes confirm most members see another rate hike by year end. Members generally saw upside risks to inflation, some assessed that the longer energy prices remained elevated, the greater the risk of cost increases which could lead to broader price pressures. Some also warned that the AI buildout could cause aggregate demand to outpace supply, putting upward pressure on inflation. Several also noted the possibility of further tariff increases as an upside risk to inflation. There was also concerns that after more than five years of above target inflation, that could affect inflation expectations and price-setting decisions. On the labour market, they viewed it as stable and near maximum employment," CIBC notes.

"The staff economic outlook was revised up relative to the July meeting, with inflation projected to reach 2% only in 2029.  On the policy decision, many participants said a higher rate path was a prudent safeguard against persistent inflation driven by strong demand or supply shocks, while others saw it as necessary based on their economic outlook. Some also argued that higher rates would help keep inflation expectations anchored, prevent pressures from spreading, and reflected views that the current policy stance was only mildly restrictive. Beyond the current decision, most participants assessed that another hike would likely be appropriate by year end, but would approach the decision meeting by meeting, guided by incoming data." CIBC adds.

• AUD/USD -0.3% from Wed 0.69839 high as gold trades to a low of $4,065 per oz

• Gold down 1.3%, broad USD index up 0.4% and UST yield curve steepens

• FOMC meeting minutes reveal divergent conjecture on reason for FFR hike

• Futures pricing now implies 82.8% probability of Fed rate hold in Oct

• European debt worries continue to intensify, EUR trading near 17-month lows

• AUD sellers lurking ahead of 0.7052 100-DMA, 0.6865 downside target

• RBA Sep meeting minutes due for release Tue, will garner close attention

• Overnight range 0.69434-745 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7052 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA


Gold Daily 21-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NY opened near 1.1190 after 1.1262 traded overnight, pair's drop extended

• Rising French, Italian bond yields, USD & Us yield

gains weighed

• 1.1165 traded early in NY's morning, the drop stalled however, rally ensued

• USD, US yields, oil, USD/CNH all moved downward to help boost EUR/USD

• Gold, silver, equities lifts off their lows also contributed to lift the pair

• 1.1203 traded, EUR/UD sat near 1.1195 late, it traded down -0.57%

• Falling RSIs, widening Bolli bands, consolidation of recent drop are bear signals
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)