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The main U.S. indexes advanced on Wednesday as technology shares recovered some lost ground after an AI-led selloff, while investors awaited minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting later in the day. [.N]

At 13:30 EST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.49% at 49,775.69. The S&P 500 was up 0.78% at 6,896.80 and the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.15% at 22,838.45.

The top three S&P 500 percentage gainers:

• Global Payments Inc , up 16.6%

• Garmin Ltd , up 9.6%

• Cadence Design Systems Inc , up 9.3%

The top three S&P 500 percentage losers:

• Palo Alto Networks Inc , down 5.5%

• Crown Castle Inc , down 4.3%

• Republic Services Inc , down 4.0%

The top three NYSE percentage gainers:

• JELD-WEN Holding Inc , up 23.8%

• FiscalNote Holdings Inc , up 17.4%

• Global Payments Inc , up 16.8%

The top three NYSE percentage losers:

• Similarweb Ltd , down 39.5%

• HF Sinclair Corp , down 11.4%

• Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc , down 10.8%

The top three Nasdaq percentage gainers:

• Rackspace Technology Inc , up 217.4%

• Sensei Biotherapeutics Inc , up 182.1%

• Cardio Diagnostics Holdings Inc , up 86.6%

The top three Nasdaq percentage losers:

• JIADE Ltd , down 67.2%

• OLB Group Inc , down 41.8%

• Strata Skin Sciences Inc , down 39.3%

• Palo Alto Networks Inc : BUZZ - Drops on lowered annual profit forecast

• Nvidia Corp : BUZZ - Rises after mega multiyear Meta AI chip deal

• Rush Street Interactive Inc : BUZZ - Rises on upbeat FY revenue forecast

• Hecla Mining Co : BUZZ - Up after upbeat results, Casa Berardi sale announcement

• Coeur Mining Inc :

• Endeavour Silver Corp :

• Silvercorp Metals Inc :

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF :

BUZZ - Silver miners rise as investors weigh geopolitical risks; Fed minutes in focus

• Sandisk Corp : BUZZ - Lifts as Western Digital heads toward the exits

• CNH Industrial NV : BUZZ - Oppenheimer raises CNH Industrial's PT, sees earnings rebound

• Linde PLC :

• Air Products and Chemicals Inc : BUZZ - Bernstein raises price target on chemical companies

• New York Times Co : BUZZ - Climbs after Berkshire Hathaway discloses investment in co

• Howmet Aerospace Inc : BUZZ - Bernstein raises Howmet Aerospace PT on potential margin upside

• Itron Inc : BUZZ - Oppenheimer raises PT on Itron after strong results

• Riot Platforms Inc : BUZZ - Jumps after investor Starboard pushes for more AI deals

• Moderna Inc : BUZZ - Rises after US FDA agrees to review its flu vaccine

• Portland General Electric Co : BUZZ - Falls after $480 mln stock offering

• Figure Technology Solutions Inc : BUZZ - Slips after pricing stock offering

• ProPetro Holding Corp : BUZZ - Rises after upbeat Q4 results

• SolarEdge Technologies Inc : BUZZ - Gains as Q1 revenue forecast exceeds expectations

• HF Sinclair Corp : BUZZ - Falls as CEO takes leave amid disclosure review

• Analog Devices Inc : BUZZ - Rises on upbeat Q2 earnings forecast

• Teledyne Technologies Inc : BUZZ - TD Cowen raises Teledyne PT, sees improving prospects for drone business

• Getty Realty Corp : BUZZ - Drops on $131 mln stock sale

• Spruce Biosciences Inc : BUZZ - Jumps as co moves toward FDA filing for rare childhood brain disorder drug

• Genuine Parts Co : BUZZ - Truist lowers Genuine Parts to 'hold' on soft auto business performance

• SM Energy Co : BUZZ - Rises on deal to sell some Texas assets to Caturus for $950 mln

• Wingstop Inc : BUZZ - Rises after quarterly profit beat estimates

• W.P. Carey Inc : BUZZ - Down after $432 mln equity offering

• Insulet Corp : BUZZ - Climbs on better-than-expected quarterly results

• Wynn Resorts Ltd : BUZZ - Argus lowers Wynn's PT on weak US markets

• Ovintiv Inc : BUZZ - Gains on Anadarko assets sale

• Newmont Corp :

• Gold Fields Ltd :

• Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd :

• Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd :

BUZZ - Gold miners gain as investors weigh geopolitical risks

• Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc : BUZZ - Up on upbeat quarterly sales, profit

• Crescent Biopharma Inc : BUZZ - Rises as global trial for new cancer drug starts

• Rio Tinto PLC :

• BHP Group Ltd :

• Southern Copper Corp :

• Freeport-McMoRan Inc :

BUZZ - Copper miners gain as red metal rises on dip-buying, tech shares recovery

• Allstate Corp :

• Cincinnati Financial Corp :

• Progressive Corp :

• Erie Indemnity Co : BUZZ - Insurers fall, underperforming broader market, financials

Index RIC Index name Percent

change %

S&P 500 0.78

S&P 500 Information 1.49

Technology

S&P 500 Utilities -1.23

S&P 500 Consumer 1.36

Discretionary

S&P 500 Materials 0.98

S&P 500 Industrials 0.24

S&P 500 Communication 0.43

Services (Sector)

S&P 500 Financials 0.86

S&P 500 Real Estate -1.45

S&P 500 Health Care -0.12

S&P 500 Consumer Staples -0.57

S&P 500 Energy 1.83

(Compiled by Rajarshi Roy and Megavarshini G. Somasundaram)

• Shares of copper miners rise, tracking price of the red metal [MET/]

• Benchmark three-month copper was up 2.2% at $12,893 a metric ton as of 1700 GMT, after earlier climbing to $12,941

• Copper prices rise as investors stepped in to buy the dip and as industrial metals prices tracked a rebound in tech stocks

• "They rarely leave significant capital in the market" during the holiday, says Panmure Liberum analyst Tom Price, adding that volatility tends to increase and leads to dip buying

• Shares of global mining giants Rio Tinto and BHP Group up 2.9% and 1.4% respectively

• Copper miners Southern Copper climb 4.2% and Freeport-McMoRan rise 2.7%

• Canada's Hudbay Minerals up marginally and ERO Copper rise 2%

(Reporting by Varun Sahay in Bengaluru)

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses GBP near-term outlook.

The GBP had a difficult start to the week after the UK labour market data disappointed and encouraged investors to front-load dovish BoE bets. At the time of writing, the UK rates markets are already fully pricing in two bank rate cuts this year and further attach more than 80% probability to a BoE cut next month," CACIB notes.

"Even so, the FX market response seemed somewhat excessive compared to the overall muted correction in the UK rates markets. This is partly because the GBP trades at a premium relative to its shrinking rate advantage across G10. As a result, the GBP could remain vulnerable even if the UK rate market outlook stabilises from here," CACIB adds.

(Updates)

• Shares of silver miners rise, tracking prices of the white metal [GOL/]

• Spot silver gains 4.7% to $76.88/ounce

• Prices rise as investors assessed simmering geopolitical risks, while markets also awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes due later in the day

• Hecla Mining up 7.4%; Coeur Mining rises ~3%

• Canadian miners: Endeavour Silver and Silvercorp Metals gain 1.7% and ~2%, respectively

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust ETF up 5.3% each

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

Goldman Sachs Research discusses EUR/USD outlook.

"With EUR/USD hovering around our 3m 1.18 forecast, we still see further upside ahead in the coming months. While it is true that there is a much more limited valuation case to expect further Euro appreciation, and it is far from a pro-cyclical currency, the Euro still stands to benefit from many of the themes we expect to persist in FX markets this year,"GS notes.

"Most notably, currency markets have been remarkably correlated, and EUR/USD continues to trade tightly with the broad Dollar. Rather than leading the way as it did in early 2025, we expect the Euro to ride the tailwinds of broad Dollar depreciation," GS adds.

Morgan Stanley summarizes its tactical bias on CAD and AUD.

"We turn neutral on CAD as risks rise that the US could begin a six month clock on USMCA negotiations through giving notice of its withdrawal, which could pose upside risk to USD/CAD," MS notes.

"Despite soft AU spending data, elevated front-end rates support capital inflows. We think AUD/USD dips toward 0.67-0.68 present buying opportunities," MS adds.

• Cable has traded a 25.5 pip range since the release of UK CPI data; 1.3555 = session low

• CPI fell to 3.0% YY in January, as per median forecast from Reuters poll of economists

• UK services CPI 4.4% YY vs 4.3% expected; core CPI 3.1% YY vs 3.0% expected

• Headline CPI drop underpins consensus expectation for BoE rate cut in March

• 1.3496 was GBP/USD low Tuesday, after pound fell on UK jobless rate rise to 5.2%

• Minutes from January's Fed meeting will be published at 1900 GMT

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of silver miners rise premarket, tracking prices of the white metal [GOL/]

• Spot silver gains 3.3% to $75.98/ounce

• Prices rise as investors await the minutes of January's U.S. Federal Reserve meeting due later in the day

• Investors also await the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures report for December, due on Friday, to determine the Fed's monetary policy this year

• Hecla Mining up 5.1%; Coeur Mining rises ~3%

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver and Silvercorp Metals gain 2.1% and 2.4, respectively

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF up 3.5%; iShares Silver Trust ETF advances 3.2%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

• Kiwi falls as RBNZ holds rates, says policy to remain accommodative

• Fed minutes, geopolitics influence dollar strength

• Yen weakens as Japan set to begin US investments

(Updates for European morning trading)

By Samuel Indyk and Rocky Swift

LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) - The euro dipped slightly on Wednesday after a report that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde planned to leave her role early, while the dollar was higher before the minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting.

The kiwi dollar slumped after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held pat on rates and said policy would need to remain accommodative, while the yen was a touch softer after the U.S. said Japan was financing three infrastructure projects.

The Financial Times reported that Lagarde planned to leave her job before the end of her term in October 2027, although the central bank said that no decision had been taken regarding the end of her term.

"I don't think it's going to make a lot of difference for the euro for the time being because there are still many things that need to be discussed," said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING.

Possible candidates to lead the ECB include former Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot, Bank for International Settlements General Manager Pablo Hernandez de Cos and Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel.

The euro fell slightly, last down less than 0.2% at $1.1831, as the impact on near-term policymaking from any change was likely to be limited.

Lagarde assumed office in 2019 and has been at the helm through the aggressive tightening cycle in 2022 and 2023 to bring inflation under control. But with inflation now back close to the ECB's target and interest rates expected to remain on hold through 2026, Lagarde could be leaving the ECB at a relatively tranquil time.

FED MINUTES, GEOPOLITICS IN FOCUS

With many markets in Asia closed for Lunar New Year holidays and the European economic calendar thin, investors were looking ahead to the Fed's minutes from its January meeting and other key U.S. economic data for trading catalysts.

The Fed left rates unchanged last month, pausing after three rate cuts in the three prior meetings. The minutes will likely reiterate that the Fed remains well-positioned to assess whether another rate cut is needed.

"We're seeing a bit of dollar strength in context of the FOMC minutes, durable goods, and maybe just squaring up some shorts ahead of that," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said. "But I just feel like we're in a bit of a holding pattern."

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.2% to 97.27, extending its advance to three days.

Focus also remains on the geopolitical situation, with Iran and the U.S. reaching an understanding on the main "guiding principles" in a second round of indirect talks over their nuclear dispute on Tuesday, although a deal is not imminent, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said.

Elsewhere in Geneva, negotiators from Ukraine and Russia concluded the first of two days of U.S.-mediated peace talks, with Trump pressing Kyiv to act fast to reach a deal to end the four-year conflict.

YEN SOFT, KIWI SLUMPS

The Japanese yen was weaker on Wednesday at 153.73 per dollar. It rose almost 3% last week, its biggest rise against the dollar in almost 15 months.

The Trump administration announced three projects valued at $36 billion to be financed by Japan, the first of some $550 billion in projects Tokyo agreed to undertake in order to lower U.S. tariffs.

"There was perhaps a view that these investments were never going to materialise but it looks like there are real projects," ING's Turner said.

"Investors are saying that if there is going to be a lot of direct investment into the U.S. from Japan, it could provide some support to dollar-yen."

Elsewhere, the kiwi slumped 0.8% to $0.6001 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its key rate unchanged at 2.25% in its first meeting chaired by Governor Anna Breman.

Policymakers said the monetary stance needs to stay accommodative to support the economic recovery.

The Australian dollar weakened 0.2% to $0.7070, while the pound was steady at $1.3564 after mixed inflation figures that showed an easing in headline consumer prices but stubborn services inflation.

(Reporting by Samuel Indyk and Rocky Swift; Editing by Stephen Coates, Shri Navaratnam, Lincoln Feast and Anil D'Silva)

• AUD/USD remains below 0.71 ahead of Australian jobs data at 0030 GMT

• 0.7090 was Tuesday high, after rally from 0.7029 (one-week low)

• Offers pre-0.71 also capped Monday gains (0.7097 was high last Friday)

• Australian January employment forecast up 20k; jobless rate forecast 4.2%

• AUD/NZD up to eye 1.18 as kiwi weakens on dovish hold from RBNZ

• BlueScope Steel considers sweetened A$15 billion takeover approach

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/GBP has traded a 10 pip range since UK inflation data release; 0.8725-0.8735

• CPI fell to 3.0% YY in January, as per median forecast from Reuters poll of economists

• Decline underpins consensus expectation for BoE rate cut to 3.5% in March

• UK services CPI 4.4% YY, fraction above forecast. Core CPI 3.1% YY vs 3.0% forecast

• 0.8749 was 8-week high for EUR/GBP Tuesday, after pound fell on UK jobless rate rise to 5.2%

• ECB President Lagarde plans to quit before Macron's term ends, FT reports

EURGBP


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable falls to 1.3559 after knee-jerk rise to 1.3580 following UK inflation data

• CPI 3% YY, as per Reuters poll forecast; services CPI 4.4% YY, fraction above forecast

• 1.3552-1.3569 was Asian session range (before UK inflation data release)

• Tuesday's low was 1.3496, after GBP fell on UK jobless rate rise to five-year high

• UK CPI drop to 3% underpins consensus expectation for BoE rate cut in March

• Farage's Reform UK floats change for BoE and OBR. UK local elections in May

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analst. The views expressed are his own)

• The 21-DMA is defining highs since the break below it on Tuesday

• Currently the 21-DMA 1.1854 and it is rising

• Wednesday's range 1.1858-1.1836 - currently toward session low

• Feb's 1.1766 low is key on the downside

• A drop toward 1.1700 likely if pair under Feb's 1.1766 low

• An equity correction may be good for stretched currencies

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Updates prices. Adds details on ECB in paragraphs 2, 12, analyst comment in paragraph 4, UK inflation data in paragraph 11.)

• Iran-US nuclear talks show progress, easing Middle East tensions

• RBNZ holds rates, signals accommodative policy to support recovery

• Japanese exports rise for fifth month

By Rocky Swift

TOKYO, Feb 18 (Reuters) - The dollar was broadly higher on Wednesday as geopolitical risks kept markets on edge and investors awaited minutes from the Federal Reserve for signals on future rate cuts. The yen slid after U.S. President Donald Trump announced the first tranche of mega-investments Tokyo is making in the United States. The kiwi dollar slumped after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held pat on rates and said policy would need to remain accommodative.

The euro was steady after a report that Christine Lagarde is expected to leave as president of the European Central Bank (ECB) before the end of her term. Iran said progress had been made in nuclear talks with the U.S. in Geneva, while peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia continued. With many markets in Asia closed for Lunar New Year holidays, investors were looking ahead to the Fed's readout of its last meeting and other key U.S. economic data for trading catalysts.

"We're seeing a bit of dollar strength in context of the FOMC minutes, durable goods, and maybe just squaring up some shorts ahead of that," said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore. "But I just feel like we're in a bit of a holding pattern."

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.1% to 97.23 after a two-day advance. The euro slid 0.09% at $1.1842.

The yen weakened 0.2% to 153.56 per dollar. Sterling

edged 0.1% lower to $1.3554 after a 0.5% slump on Tuesday. Iran and the U.S. reached an understanding on the main "guiding principles" in a second round of indirect talks over their nuclear dispute on Tuesday, although a deal is not imminent, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said.

Elsewhere in Geneva, negotiators from Ukraine and Russia concluded the first of two days of U.S.-mediated peace talks in Geneva, with Trump pressing Kyiv to act fast to reach a deal to end the four-year conflict.

"Weaker risk sentiment, because of concerns around renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and volatility in U.S. equity markets, briefly supported the USD," Samara Hammoud, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a note. "However, reports that the U.S. and Iran made progress and reached a 'general agreement' during nuclear negotiations in Switzerland helped ease those concerns." The Fed's Open Market Committee issues minutes from its January meeting later on Wednesday, while the Commerce Department will release durable goods data for December and on Friday will issue its first estimate for fourth quarter gross domestic product. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday that the central bank could approve "several more" rate cuts this year, depending on inflation.

British inflation data will be closely watched after a report on Tuesday showed unemployment rose to a five-year high, boosting the case for rate cuts by the Bank of England and triggering a slide in the pound. The UK consumer price index is expected to show growth slowed to 3% year-on-year in January from 3.4% in December. France is also due to report CPI figures.

The ECB said President Lagarde is totally focused on her mission and has not taken any decision regarding the end of her term, responding to a report by the Financial Times that she intended to exit before the French presidential election in April next year. In Japan, the International Monetary Fund urged the central bank to keep raising interest rates and the government in Tokyo to avoid loosening fiscal policy further. The Trump administration announced three projects valued at $36 billion to be financed by Japan, the first of some $550 billion in projects Tokyo agreed to undertake in order to lower U.S. tariffs.

The Australian dollar weakened 0.3% versus the greenback to $0.7065, while the kiwi slumped 0.8% to $0.5996. The RBNZ held its key rate unchanged at 2.25% in its first meeting chaired by Governor Anna Breman, with policymakers saying the monetary stance needs to stay accommodative to support the economic recovery.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 0.1% to $67,610.41, while ether declined 0.2% to $1,995.96.
(Reporting by Rocky Swift; Editing by Stephen Coates, Shri Navaratnam and Lincoln Feast.)

• AUD/USD -0.2% Wed, softening slightly in sympathy with sharply lower NZD

• RBNZ held OCR steady as expected, sees accommodative rates for some time

• AUD/NZD +0.5%, cross resistance near 1.1800 impacting AUD/USD

• UST yield curve flattens as Fed officials give mixed messages on rates

• U.S./Iran nearer agreement on nuclear issues, guiding principles agreed

• U.S. Dec durable goods, Jan industrial production & FOMC minutes due Wed

• Range Asia 0.70675-893, support 0.6900 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD/NZD Monthly


AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Iran-US nuclear talks show progress, easing Middle East tensions

• RBNZ holds rates, signals accommodative policy to support recovery

• Japanese exports rise for fifth month

(Updates prices, NZ central bank decision.)

By Rocky Swift

TOKYO, Feb 18 (Reuters) - The dollar held its ground on Wednesday as geopolitical risks kept markets on edge and investors awaited minutes from the Federal Reserve for signals on future rate cuts.

The yen was steady after data showing a rebound in Japanese manufacturer sentiment and President Donald Trump announced the first tranche of mega-investments Tokyo is making in the U.S.

The kiwi dollar was the main mover in currency markets in the Asian morning, with sellers getting into the act after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held pat on rates and said policy would need to remain accommodative.

The RBNZ's stance underscored the still-fragile state of the South Pacific nation's economy.

Financial markets were also keeping a close eye on geopolitics after Iran said progress had been made in nuclear talks with the U.S. in Geneva, while peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia continued.

"Weaker risk sentiment, because of concerns around renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and volatility in U.S. equity markets, briefly supported the USD," Samara Hammoud, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a note. "However, reports that the U.S. and Iran made progress and reached a 'general agreement' during nuclear negotiations in Switzerland helped ease those concerns."

Iran and the U.S. reached an understanding on the main "guiding principles" in a second round of indirect talks over their nuclear dispute on Tuesday, although a deal is not imminent, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said.

Elsewhere in Geneva, negotiators from Ukraine and Russia concluded the first of two days of U.S.-mediated peace talks in Geneva, with Trump pressing Kyiv to act fast to reach a deal to end the four-year conflict.

With many markets in Asia remaining closed for Lunar New Year holidays, investors were looking ahead to the Fed's readout of its last meeting and key U.S. economic data for trading catalysts.

The Fed's Open Market Committee issues minutes from its January meeting later on Wednesday, while the Commerce Department on Friday will issue its first estimate for U.S. gross domestic product for the fourth quarter.

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was little changed at 97.16 after a two-day advance. The euro slid 0.06% to $1.1846.

The yen held steady at 153.23 per dollar, and sterling weakened 0.07% to $1.3558, after a 0.5% slide in the previous session.

Data released earlier showed Japanese exports rose for a fifth consecutive month in January, while the Reuters Tankan poll also provided some cheer for a stuttering economy as confidence among the nation's manufacturers improved in February for the first time in three months.

The International Monetary Fund urged Japan to keep raising interest rates and avoid loosening fiscal policy further. The Trump administration announced three projects valued at $36 billion to be financed by Japan, the first of some $550 billion in projects Tokyo agreed to undertake in order to lower U.S. tariffs.

The Australian dollar weakened 0.1% versus the greenback to $0.7076, as the kiwi slid 0.4% to $0.6016.

The RBNZ held its key rate unchanged at 2.25% in its first meeting chaired by Governor Anna Breman, with policymakers saying the monetary stance needs to stay accommodative to support the economic recovery.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 0.7% to $67,167.14, and ether declined 1.15% to $1,976.18.

(Reporting by Rocky Swift; Editing by Stephen Coates and Shri Navaratnam)

• NZD/USD -0.4% Wed as RBNZ holds OCR steady at 2.25% as expected

• Inflation expected to fall, accommodative policy expected for some

• Moderation of Nov's hawkish tone may see NZD test 0.5930 support

• U.S. Dec durable goods, Jan industrial production & FOMC minutes due Wed

• UST yield curve flatter amid mixed messaging on rates from Fed officials

• U.S./Iran closer to resolution on nuclear dispute, agree guiding principles

• Range NZ 0.6013-51, support 0.5930 0.5730 0.5580, resistance 0.6120
NZD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Wed in subdued trading after AU wage inflation prints inline

• AU Q4 wage price index +0.8% q/q, +3.4% y/y (poll +0.8%, +3.4% respectively)

• AUD will need new catalyst for challenge of 0.7158 resistance zone

• UST yield curve flattens as Fed officials give mixed messages on rates

• U.S./Iran nearer agreement on nuclear issues, guiding principles agreed

• U.S. Dec durable goods, Jan industrial production & FOMC minutes due Wed

• Range Asia 0.70765-893, support 0.6900 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY bounces to 153.92 EBS overnight but off again as USD hit in places

• Asia 153.12-29 so far, Asia again likely thin on Lunar New Year holidays

• Consolidation in store? Plenty of news overnight, caution prevails

• Japanese exporter, other sales eyed on rallies again, importers at Tokyo fix

• USD/JPY base may be in place below 152.50 for now, cap from around 154.00

• Market to gravitate around massive $3.4 bln 153.00 option expiries tomorrow?

• Large today around 152.00, at 152.75, between 153.50-60, at 155.00

• Narrower JGB-US rate differentials to help cap USD/JPY, in 2s @215 bps

• On daily chart, head-shoulders pattern has developed, neckline 152.30-35?

• Top of head 157.95 Feb 9, shoulders 152.10 Jan 27, 152.28 Feb 12

• Related comments , also

• US markets , , ,

• Fed-speak , , ,

• Also , , on US data

• On Trump policies , on Iran
USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research maintains a bullish bias on USD/JPY and looks to buy dips below 152.

"We view levels below 152 as a good entry point for new USD/JPY long positions. While OIS pricing indicates nearly 60bp of hikes from the BoJ this year, measures such as energy subsidies and the consumption tax are expected to moderate inflation, reducing the need for aggressive tightening. As expectations for further hikes diminish, the yen will likely weaken," ANZ notes.

"The carry for USD/JPY remains attractive, particularly as the USD is likely to stay firm in February on seasonal drivers and positive economic data," ANZ adds.

• AUD/USD +0.1% late Tue after recovering from a deepening rout in NY

• Mixed messaging from Fed officials on FFR cuts flattens UST yield curve

• U.S. & Iran agree on guiding principles aimed at resolving nuclear dispute

• AUD near upper hourly Bollinger band, recovery rally likely to slow

• Pair requires momentum uplift to mount challenge of 0.7158 resistance

• U.S. Dec durable goods & Jan industrial production data due Wed

• Overnight range 0.70284-90, support 0.6900 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar index rose on Tuesday, lifted by a bout of short covering and haven demand as U.S. equities initially struggled and Fed officials stuck to a cautious policy stance. Fed Governor Michael Barr warned that another cut may be “well down the road” amid inflation risks, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said “several more” cuts are possible only if inflation resumes its decline toward 2%. Barr added monetary policy isn’t influencing the surge in AI investment and productivity outlook.

A flatter Treasury yield curve after Fed comments and an Empire State index that showed firmer input prices helped to buoy the dollar. Oil fell after Iran and the United States reached an understanding on the main "guiding principles" in talks aimed at resolving their longstanding nuclear dispute, but a deal is not imminent.

EUR/USD dipped to a seven-session low of 1.1805 on broad U.S. dollar strength and as a push higher in USD/CNH biased flows toward the greenback, though the pair recovered as risk tone improved. A falling daily RSI and closes below the 10- and 21-day moving averages point to lingering downside pressure.

USD/JPY traded a wide 152.70–153.92 range, forming a long-legged doji as the flatter Treasury curve and broader dollar gains pushed the pair to a fresh session high. A looming 20/100-day bearish moving-average crossover and a soft RSI backdrop weigh, though a double-bottom above the 152.10 year-to-date low offered nearby support.

GBP/USD fell sharply after soft U.K. wage and jobs data and extended losses on broad dollar strength before rebounding from lows near 1.35. Rate-path expectations between the Fed and BoE remain broadly aligned.

AUD/USD rose as metal prices bounced off session lows while the S&P turned positive, with a daily bull hammer softening the earlier bearish tone.

Treasury yields were mixed as the curve flattened. The 2s-10s curve was down about 3 basis points to +61.5bps.

The S&P 500 rose 0.32%.

WTI oil fell 0.67%.

Gold dropped 1.9% while copper slid 2.7%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.01%, USD/JPY -0.13%, GBP/USD -0.51%, AUD/USD +0.24%, DXY +0.24%, EUR/JPY -0.10%, GBP/JPY -0.63%, AUD/JPY +0.12%.(Editing by Terence Gabriel Reporting by Robert Fullem)

Bank of America Global Research discusses USD/JPY outlook in the near- and long term,

"With the general election now out of the way, the market's focus for USD/JPY shifts squarely to the prospect of FX intervention. Our intervention watch‑zone remains unchanged at 157-160. While intervention concerns are likely to cap upside in USD/JPY, structural yen‑selling flows mean such caution alone is unlikely to halt depreciation, and the probability of actual FX intervention remains high," BofA notes.

"Over the longer term, yen‑weakening risks remain firmly in place. But in the near term, the combination of potential intervention and scope for the market to further price in BoJ hikes at the March and April meetings skews the risk‑reward for USD/JPY to the downside. Ahead of the fiscal year‑end, current spot levels offer Japanese corporates a reasonably attractive opportunity to add to their yen‑buying hedge positions," BofA adds.

• NY opened near 0.7060 after 0.7075 traded overnight, the pair's slide extended early

• US$ was bought early while stocks , gold , silver

dropped

• AUD/USD hit a 6-session high of 0.7028, buyers then emerged as risk improved

• USD/CNH sllid from its 6.8922 high while gold, silver, stocks moved upward

• AUD/USD rallied back above the 10-DMA and neared 0.7070 in NY's afternoon

• The pair dipped slightly, sat near 0.7060 late, was down only -0.20%

• Daily RSI is falling but monthly is rising, daily bull hammer formed after 10-DMA pierced
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(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)