(Corrects typo line 4 )

• FX option trade flows can offer clues about FX sentiment and direction

• There's been increased interest to sell higher strike AUD/USD options over recent sessions

• Dealers say its most likely unwinding of bullish structures that have already reaped rewards

• This profit taking doesn't mean that AUD/USD can't eventually trade higher, maybe just not right now

• A recent report from DB research expects USD decline to deepen and AUD/USD to reach 0.7600 this year

• Related - Complacency to caution: FX options edge up into cen-bank heavy week
AUD=D3


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY hovering under the 160 level, a potential line-in-the-sand for Japan

• There has been a 159.61-159.84 range, on Friday so far, according to EBS data

• There is some speculation spot could break above 160 on Friday after Asia's close

• Japan renews FX warning, ready for 'decisive action' with US coordination

• Recall spot has failed on four occasions in April to register a close below 158.49 Fibo

• 158.49 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 152.10-160.47 2026 (EBS) rise

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is well below +0.5 (relationship broken)

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD has traded a 20 pip range thus far Friday; 0.7115-0.7135

• 0.7115 is 4.4 pips above Thursday's base (lowest level since April 14)

• Safe-haven USD supported by Middle East uncertainty

• AUD/NZD rises towards 1.22 again (AUD/NZD was last at 1.22 in 2013)

• Australian March CPI data due on April 29: jump expected, to 4.7% (Reuters poll)

• Even hotter print would increase probability of another RBA rate hike in May

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 17 pip range thus far Friday; 1.3455-1.3472

• 1.3472 is three pips below the double-day low on Monday-Tuesday

• Thursday low was 1.3448 (lowest level since April 13) on safe-haven USD demand

• UK retail sales up 0.7% in March vs 0.1% median estimate from Reuters poll

• Stock markets are too high and set to fall, BoE deputy governor Breeden tells BBC

• Trump threatens Starmer with "big tariff" over tech tax, Telegraph reports

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD falls under 200-DMA at 1.1676 to 1.1674 but hasn't closed below it

• Close below may encourage traders - currently betting on a rise - to sell

• Target for a minor correction of March April rise is 1.1681

• The influential 21-DMA is 1.1662

• Targets for a deeper drop 1.1629, 1.1577 and 1.1503

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.2% Fri, potential U.S.-Iran re-escalation impeding risk appetite

• Trump rules out nuclear strike; Lebanon-Israel ceasefire extended

• Israels threats, Tehran air defence systems activation fuel anxiety

• Pivotal AU Q1 CPI update due Apr 29, will re-focus traders on hawkish RBA

• Futures market pricing currently implies 79.4% probability of May OCR hike

• AUD continues to grind lower without major support in close by

• Range Asia 0.7115-35, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD unchanged in Asia after closing 0.25% lower on Thursday

• Elusive Middle East peace deal, tepid risk appetite weigh on GBP

• Dismal Confederation of British Industry survey highlights weak economy

• UK PMI, CBI industry surveys show record price gauge increases

• Stagflation fears hit GBP; BoE rate rises likely while economy slows

• Traders now see a 75% chance of a rate hike from BoE by June

• Support 1.3430, 1.3380, resistance 1.3500-10, 1.3535-45

• Thursday range 1.3448-1.3518, Asia range 1.3458-1.3472
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD flat Fri in subdued trading as U.S.-Iran contemplation continues

• Pivotal AU Q1 CPI update due Apr 29, will re-focus traders on hawkish RBA

• Futures market pricing currently implies 80.2% probability of May hike

• Trump rules out nuclear attack, says Lebanon-Israel ceasefire extended

• Tehran air defence systems activation, Israel threats keep markets on edge

• Range Asia 0.7128-35, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 1.4%, hitting their lowest level since April 8

• Gold prices fell to a more than one-week low on Thursday, pressured by stronger dollar, and worries that inflationary fallout from the Middle East conflict could keep U.S. interest rates higher for longer [GOL/]

• Northern Star Resources falls 2.2% and Evolution Mining sheds 1.2%

• Sub-index down 4% YTD vs the broader market's 0.5% rise

(Reporting by Shruti Agarwal in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY pushed up to 159.84 EBS yesterday, Asia 159.66-78 so far

• Seems pattern of USD buys ahead of weekends continuing

• Market wary of fresh Middle East developments as market rests

• US-Iran impasse on-going, ceasefire precarious, both sides rattling sabres

• Japan FX intervention still seen real however but for how long?

• Any 160.00 break higher could see quick move to 160.47 March 30 high

• This especially without any real intervention, jaw-boning just won't cut it

• Japanese importer demand higher today with Gotobi tomorrow, good support

• Hourly Ichimoku tenkan/kijun at 159.57/58, hourly cloud 159.21-35

• In options, expiries today at 159.00-10 $906 mln, 160.00 $1 bln

• JGB-US Treasury rate diffs have widened a bit but still near recent lows

• Related comments , , ,

• And , also , on the Fed ,

• US markets , , ,

• On US economy , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.5% from Thur 0.71655 high, remains acutely sensitive to Iran news

• Activation of air defence systems across Tehran spooking markets Thur

• AUD grinding lower ahead of weekend, no major support within close proximity

• Pivotal AU Q1 CPI update due Apr 29, will re-focus traders on hawkish RBA

• U.S. initial jobless claims 214k, S&P composite PMI 52.0 (polls: 210k, 50.5)

• Overnight range 0.71106-63, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Barclays Research adopts a bearish bias on GBP going into UK local elections in May.

"UK political risks have resurfaced with the latest twist of the Mandelson affair. For now Gilts are taking their cue from the decline in energy prices; that said, risks from a more-expansionary fiscal policy after the elections should weigh on the pound for some time. A modest re-widening of the GBP's fiscal premium closer to levels prevailing in November points to EURGBP trading closer to 0.88 in the near term," Barclays notes.

"On a more-positive note, the government appears much keener on a more meaningful pivot towards the EU than previous pronouncements. The considerable procedural obstacles before such an intent can translate into actionable policies with tangible economic benefits, however, suggests this is more of a longer-term consideration. The planned UK-EU summit in late June or early July could be the first signpost in that process, should it materialize," Barclays adds.

• GBP$ dips in NY afternoon trade, -0.2% at 1.3473; NorAm range 1.3518-1.3448

• Reports of Iranian air defenses activated lift oil, stirs USD haven bid

• GBP$ melts lower as risk broadly lower; UST yields higher, equities sliding

• Mideast in state of flux; no news of negotiations, oil flow thru strait diminished

• Next week's Fed, BoE meetings are likely to yield no rate changes; focus on Mideast

• GBP$ supt at bruised 100-DMA at 1.3460, 1.3448 Thurs low, 1.3415 flat 200-DMA

• Res 1.3500 psychological lcl, 1.3518 Thursday high, 1.3544 daily cloud top

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1685 after EUR/UD traded downward overnight, pair rallied early

• USD selling & softer US yields helped EUR/UD rally to 1.1716

• Sellers emerged however as USD, yields moved upward due to geopolitical risks

• Report that Iran's air defense systems were activated helped to sour risk sentiment

• Oil rallied on the reports and USD/CNH rallied back toward 6.8385

• Gold, silver and equities fell as investors sought out the USD and safety

• EUR/USD pierced the 55- & 200-DMAs as well as the 50% Fibo of the 1.1506-1.1849 rally

• An 8-session low of 1.1669 traded, USD then softened, EUR/UDS neared 1.1695 late

• The pair trade down only -0.10% late in the session
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.71335 after 0.7166 traded overnight, pair rallied early

• USD, US yields , USD/CNH softened while stocks, gold, silver moved up

• 0.7163 traded, sellers then emerged and AUD/USD resumed its downward move

• USD, yields rallied & riskier assets traded downward as risk sentiment soured

• Report activation of Iran air defense systems helped sour risk sentiment

• AUD/USD fell below the 10-DMA, hit a 7-session low of 0.7111 then bounced

• USD softened a bit, AUD/USD neared 0.7135 late, traded down -0.37%

• Falling daily RSI, move below the 10-DMA are concerns for AUD/USD bulls
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

SEB Research summarizes its tactical bias on GBP and CHF.

"GBP in a "carry sweet spot" with large rate differential vs EUR, but faces downside risks . Higher rates reignite fiscal fears, lower rates erode carry protection. Stagflation dynamics and political risks cloud the outlook. Short GBP is best expressed via EUR+AUD basket or EURGBP calls," SEB notes.

"CHF: Hard to be short, expensive to be long. CHF retains safe-haven links to gold but that breaks in yield- driven shocks. Being long is expensive; being short is risky given haven flows. Play tactically around binary risk events only," SEB adds.

• USD/CAD is extending its rebound after recent the probe of support at 1.3640

• Market mood in limbo, still awaiting clear signals on the U.S.-Iran war

• Though risk backdrop is more balanced now after the surge in equities

• Meanwhile, short-term USD flow dynamics are supportive, opening up USD/CAD upside

• Initial resistance at 1.3710/19 (200HMAs), through here would bring 1.3740 in focus
usdcad hourly


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Nomura Research discusses the BoJ policy trajectory into next week's April policy meeting,

"Markets are range-bound as they await direct US-Iran talks, with USD/JPY stuck around 159. Oil prices are still elevated, keeping JPY weakness pressures high. Whether a clear direction toward normalizing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz will emerge from the direct talks will be crucial for the near-term JPY direction," Nomura notes.

"Expectations for a BOJ rate hike in April have fallen sharply, with media reports suggesting a wait-and-see stance for now. The BOJ’s decision may hinge on whether it can deliver a “hawkish hold” that prevents further JPY selling.

If USD/JPY moves above 160 before the April meeting, the BOJ may need to sound more hawkish toward June and beyond, while intervention by Japanese authorities will remain an option as well," Nomura adds.

• Cable has traded a 32 pip range since the London open; 1.3479-1.3511

• 1.3479 is four pips above the double-day low on Monday and Tuesday

• Support points below 1.3475 include 1.3461 (100DMA) and 1.3431

• U.S. weekly jobless claims increase marginally as labor market remains stable

• UK companies see cost pressures spreading at record pace

• UK March retail sales data due on Friday, at 0600 GMT; up 0.1% MM f/c

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses CAD outlook and sees BoC pn hold for the rest of the year and USD/CAD modestly lower by year-end.

"Both USD-CAD and DXY are largely the same now compared to when military action in the Middle East began. We have kept our general FX views the same for G10 and specifically for CAD as well. We remain circumspect of market optimism around the cessation of military action. Consistent with our general near-term USD-positive outlook, we are near-term negative on CAD, especially in the face of BOC inaction," BofA notes.

"Our Commodities team still expects oil prices to remain elevated for the rest of the year, and in the current environment, we remain near-term concerned around the global growth impact from higher energy prices, feeding worries around risk that should be modestly CAD negative, and keeping our upside near-term views around USD-CAD in place. But over the medium-term, we see USD overvalued, and our Economics team expects two Fed cuts by the end of the year in contrast to the BOC on hold, which should help USD-CAD modestly lower by the end of the year," BofA adds.

Goldman Sachs sees the risks tilted to the downside in USD/JPY but likes JPY-funded carry expressions.

"We still think the asymmetry remains to the downside in USD/JPY, given the market's vulnerability to an increase in recession odds (especially as markets have priced in greater optimism on the resumption of flows) and still-elevated intervention risk (reinforced by Katayama's latest comments on continued discussions with the US).

"But both of those feel a bit farther away, and we continue to see underlying depreciation pressures from the recovery in risk sentiment, likely only gradual hikes from the BoJ, and the relative economic implications from the energy shock. For that reason, we see a better window of opportunity for JPY-funded carry expression," GS adds.

• AUD/USD hit 0.7166 overnight, sellers then emerged, pair fell below the 10-DMA

• The pair turned lower, hit 0.7133 into NY's open, AUD/USD traded down -0.38%

• On going geopolitical tensions drove risk-off which weighed on riskier assets

• USD, US yield , USD/CNH & oil gains added to risk-off sentiment

• Gold, silver, copper & equities fell to reinforce the risk-off trading theme

• AUD/USD neared the April 21 low but remained within the Friday-Monday ranges

• Falling daily RSI worries AUD/USD bulls but rising monthly RSI gives them some comfort
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 25 pip range since the London open; 1.3482-1.3507

• 1.3482 is 2.5 pips above Asia low; 1.3507 is four pips shy of Asia high

• UK April services PMI 52 vs 50 forecast; manufacturing PMI 53.6 vs 50.3 f/c

• PMI data spurs hawkish shift in BoE interest rate expectations

• Pound rises to four-week high vs euro, just shy of 1.1550, on PMI data

• Mandelson scandal shatters UK PM Starmer's promise of stable government

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

April 23 (Reuters) - Cable's weakness likely to persist as the fallout from a recent "bull trap" continues.

GBP/USD's rise from the 2026 low has been limited by the 1.3597 Fibonacci level, a 61.8% retrace of the 1.3867 to 1.3160 2026 fall this month. The 61.8% retracement is known by some as the "golden ratio" in the sequence due to its outsized significance in determining direction of the price action.

GBP/USD rose to 1.3599 last week to only marginally break the 1.3597 Fibo, but it failed to register a daily close above, a classic "bull trap". A bull trap is set when a market breaks above a technical level but subsequently reverses and is usually a bearish sign.

There is a good chance GBP/USD will continue to suffer a setback to at least last week's 1.3384 low, a break below which would weaken it further.

However, those that are bearish should beware that the 14-day momentum reading remains positive.
Daily Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)