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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
Feb 23 - 06:12 AM
GBP/USD Catches Bid With EUR/GBP Down To Eye 0.8800
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 23 - 04:00 AM
  • Pound catches bid with cable up half-a-cent to eye 1.3989 (Thursday's high)
  • Offers expected near 1.40 . 1.4002 = 50% of 1.4145-1.3858
  • EUR/GBP down to threaten 0.8800 for the third time this week
  • 0.8806/07 = Tuesday/Wednesday lows. 0.8004 = technical support level
  • Cross has not traded below 0.8800 since Feb 9: 0.8779 was low that day
  • 70% chance of BoE rate hike in May is source of support for sterling

EURGBP: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 23 - 05:00 AM
GBP/USD - Offers Expected Near 1.40 Again Amid Brexit Focus
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 23 - 02:45 AM
  • Fresh offers expected near 1.40 if GBP/USD catches pre-weekend bid
  • Offers ahead of 1.40 capped rise from eight-day low of 1.3858 Thursday
  • Huge 1.4000 option expiry Monday (Feb 26), GBP 2.15bln strike
  • 1.4008 was Wednesday's high, before USD boosted by rise in UST yields
  • UK PM May to set out "the way forward" for Brexit next week nL8N1QC88P
  • Guardian-May at risk of defeat as Labour shifts on Brexit. Link:nNRA5ls72q

GBPUSD 1.40: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 23 - 03:48 AM
EUR/USD - Risks Drop To Big 38.2% Fibo, 30-Day Lwr Bolli Band
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 23 - 02:30 AM
  • EUR/USD's bias remains on the downside
  • Scope is for losses to the 30-day lower bollinger-band now at 1.2175
  • Bollinger-band is near the major 1.2173 Fibo
  • 1.2173 Fibo -- 38.2% retrace of 1.1553 to 1.2556 (Nov to Feb) rise
  • Fourteen-day momentum remains negative, bearish market structure
  • Only a daily close back above 30-DMA, now at 1.2344, defers

EUR/USD Trader:

Daily Bollinger Chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 23 - 02:36 AM
USD/JPY - Better Bid On USD Strength But Upside Limited
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 23 - 12:35 AM
  • USD/JPY buoyant on broad USD strength, upside limited however.
  • Range limited to 106.66-107.03, option expiries, some sales help cap.
  • Total USD 572 mln option expiries at 106.99-107.00, 107.40-50 835 mln.
  • Sell-rally strategies back in vogue after brief hiatus.
  • Eyes on 100-HMA at 107.09, descending daily Ichi tenkan at 107.16.
  • Nikkei rise and firm US yields supportive.

USD/JPY: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 23 - 01:24 AM
USD/JPY: Could USD/JPY Mirror EUR/USD In 2017? What's The Trade? - BNPP
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 22 - 08:05 PM

BNP Paribas Research discusses USD/JPY outlook, and notes that its recent decline looks likely to mirror EUR/USD upward price action in 2017 in terms of the correlations' breakdown with yields spreads, which points to the possibility of further USD/JPY weakness over the coming months.

"The breakdown in these correlations has raised the possibility that USDJPY could be on the verge of a structural break towards long-term equilibrium fair value, similar to the path of EURUSD over the past year

We think eurozone investors, seeking to reduce exposure to USD accumulated during the peak ECB quantitative easing (QE) years, played an important role in EURUSD’s rise," BNPP argues.

"We expect the move lower in USDJPY to be quite gradual. Still, if our view becomes increasingly consensus, we may see more periods of intensified hedging activity, which could see USDJPY decline towards 100 more quickly," BNPP adds. 

To express this possibility, BNPP likes to remain positioned for CHF/JPY downside via an options structure throughout 2018 (expiry 23-Jan-19).

Source:
BNP Paribas Research
Feb 23 - 12:12 AM
USD/JPY - In Stasis Between 106.50-107.00, Neutral Bias Now
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 22 - 10:00 PM
  • USD/JPY in stasis, Asia range so far 106.66-107.00, heavy from 107.00.
  • USD572 mln option expiries at 106.99-107.00 help cap, more above.
  • Nikkei up small and US yields off highs but relatively firm - supportive.
  • Market Fed expectations solidifying - 3 hikes this year, possibly 4.
  • Initial support 106.50-60 - 106.60 low yesterday, 106.56 February 20.
  • More support @106.00, talk stops sub-106.50, 106.00, 105.55 2/16 trend low.

USD/JPY: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 22 - 11:00 PM
AUD/JPY - Bears Need A Close Below 83.50 Soon
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 22 - 08:15 PM
  • Flat in Asia with modest volatility - opened -0.5% - JPY led
  • Soft close validated Wednesday's bearish outside day - negative signal
  • Horizontal Tenkan & Kijun lines suggest short term consolidation
  • Bears need a close below 83.54, 38.2% 2016/17 & 76.4% 2017 rise soon
  • Close below 83.50 would target 81.43 April 2017 low
  • Poll - BOJ seen keeping 10-year yield target at zero in 2018 nL4N1QC053

auj feb 23: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 22 - 09:48 PM
GBP/USD - May To Set Out "the Way Forward" - Negative Setup
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 22 - 07:40 PM
  • Tight early - opened +0.3% on broad USD weakness, as UST yields slipped
  • May to set out "the way forward" for Brexit next week nL8N1QC88P
  • Devil will be in the details - EU & UK appear a long way from a compromise
  • Negative momentum studies, 5, 10 & 20 DMAs crest/fall - modest bearish setup
  • Targets a test of 1.3764 Feb low, while closes below 1.4000 20 DMA
  • NY 1.3858/1.3989 range initial support/resistance - 1.3900 366M strikes

gbp feb 23: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 22 - 08:36 PM
NZD/USD - Despite The Bounce, Modest Downside Bias Survives
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 22 - 06:25 PM
  • Fraction firmer early - opened +0.3% - USD led as UST yields slipped
  • Firmer retail sales, +1.7% QQ & +5.4% YY, had little impact
  • Negative momentum studies, 5, 10 & 20 DMAs conflict - modest bearish setup
  • Longer term target is 0.7176/86, 38.2% of 2017/18 bounce & Feb low
  • 0.7307, 50% Feb bounce provided a base yesterday & remains support
  • NY 0.7367 spike high is initial resistance - tight Asian range likely

nzd feb 23: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 22 - 05:00 PM
USD: Stars To Continue To Align For 4 More Fed Hikes This Year - Nomura
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 22 - 03:30 PM

Nomura Research discusses its Fed call in light of yesterday's FOMC minutes and makes the case for 4 more Fed hikes this year.

"The discussion in the January minutes, positive economic data since the January meeting and the increased certainty in a sizable rise in federal spending, lead us to expect the March Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) to show higher growth, lower unemployment, and perhaps a touch higher inflation.

As this point it seems likely that the next round of FOMC forecasts will show more interest rate hikes. We believe the median forecast for this year is more likely than not to move from three to four hikes, given events since the January meeting. But that remains a close call, in our judgment.

However, we expect the stars to continue to align such that the FOMC will raise rates four times this year," Nomura argues. 

Source:
Nomura Research
Feb 22 - 02:36 PM
GBP/USD - Offers Expected Near 1.40 If USD Falls Further
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 22 - 10:05 AM
  • Offers may emerge near 1.40 if greenback dive continues
  • 1.3960 = intra-day high for cable, three hours after eight-day low of 1.3858
  • Huge 1.4000 option expiry Monday (Feb 26), GBP 2.2bln strike
  • 1.4002 = 50% of 1.4145 (Feb 16 high, pre-UK retail sales miss) to 1.3858
  • 1.4008 was Wednesday's high, shortly after FOMC meeting minutes published
  • Drop to 1.3858 influenced by downward revision to UK Q4 GDP nL8N1QC383

GBPUSD: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 22 - 01:24 PM
EUR/USD: Triple Top Is A Possibility: Confirm & Void Levels & Targets - BofAML
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 22 - 11:10 AM

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research discusses EUR/USD technical outlook, notes that daily EUR/USD chart exhibits the characteristics of a triple top, provided spot continues to close below one-month highs.

What would confirm this developing technical pattern?

"To technically confirm this top and potential decline to the measured move in the 1.19s, EUR/USD will have to close below the Feb lows of 1.2212The 50d SMA is rising quickly to this area and will be another technical level to watch/break," BofAML argues. 

What would void this developing technical pattern?

BofAML thinks that provided EUR/USD closes above 1.2512 in the next few weeks,  EUR/USD could continue its uptrend to the next Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3197.

Source:
BofA Merrill Lynch Research
Feb 22 - 12:12 PM
AUD/USD - Signs Appear AUD/USD's Correction Is Done
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 22 - 09:50 AM
  • New s-t low set overnight, 200-DSMA helps stall the slide
  • Pair rebounds as UST yield lift stalls and USD sees broad based sales
  • Losses erased & pair up on the day now, 55-Day SMA is now threatened
  • Daily RSI diverge don the low, a sign the slide could be complete
  • Close above 55& 10-DSMAs & daily cloud top bolster view slide is done
  • Above 0.7990/00 opens the door to the 2018 high

chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 22 - 11:00 AM
GBP/USD: S/T Focus On Transition Deal But Supported M/T On BoE Stance - BTMU
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 22 - 09:29 AM

BTMU Research discusses GBP/USD outlook and notes that there were two clear messages from yesterday's BoE testimony to the Treasury Select Committee on the details of the Quarterly Inflation 

"Firstly, domestically generated inflation risks are building through growing evidence of wage inflation “taking root”. Secondly, that because of this the degree of monetary tightening is likely to be more than what was expected at the last QIR release in November," BTMU notes. 

"The pound did not respond and as we have stated this week already, Brexit focus has returned to the markets as the transition deal deadline approaches. That will blur the FX impact over the short-term but ultimately the BoE’s stance is a sign of confidence which will provide support for the pound ahead," BTMU argues. 

Source:
BTMU Research
Feb 22 - 09:48 AM
USD: Bounce Likely A Temp Correction; 7-year UST Auction in Focus - ING
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 22 - 08:33 AM

ING Research discusses the USD outlook in light of yesterday's release of January FOMC minutes which gave the dollar a small lift, with confidence expressed that activity and inflation have been moving in the right direction to merit further gradual rate hikes.

"The Fed story has not had much bearing on the dollar over recent quarters, as a recovery in investment opportunities overseas and more recent concerns about Washington’s dollar policy and twin deficits have driven the dollar lower.

The dollar focus switches to the 19:00 CET US$29bn auction of seven-year US Treasuries. Any poor showing of interest at the auction could add to fears that US asset markets are falling out of favour.

That said, watch out for key resistance in DXY at 90.56 – above which a 2% dollar rally is threatened – but overall we see this as a temporary dollar correction," ING argues. 

Source:
ING Research
Feb 22 - 08:36 AM
GBP/USD - In Check Before Chequers Meeting On Brexit
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 22 - 06:30 AM
  • Cable climb from post-UK GDP data low of 1.3873 topped out circa 1.3900
  • 1.3900 is a former support point (1.3905 was Wednesday's low)
  • Post-UK GDP data low was four pips shy of 1.3969 (early Europe 8-day low)
  • USD continues to benefit from proximity of 10-year UST yield to 3%
  • UK government's Brexit Cabinet meeting at Chequers today
  • CBI Feb retail sales balance +8 vs +13 expected nL9N1O501V nL8N1QC383

GBPUSD: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 22 - 07:24 AM
Bearish EUR/USD, Capped USD/JPY An Ominous Sign For EUR/JPY
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 22 - 05:25 AM
  • EUR/USD likely to drop further as big Fibo overcome
  • Top in place in USD/JPY, despite Fed, as supply weighs
  • EUR/JPY 48/72H log correlations with USD/JPY more significant than EUR/USD
  • EUR/JPY risks a further fall to the 200-DMA which is currently at 131.12
  • EUR/JPY fourteen-day momentum is increasingly negative, which is bearish
  • Cross is currently consolidating circa the 131.80 pivot point

Daily Bollinger Chart: Click here

Pivot Chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 22 - 06:12 AM
EUR/USD - Likely To Drop Further As Big Fibo Overcome
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 22 - 04:00 AM
  • EUR/USD bulls are likely to buckle further as the market heads lower
  • Near-term scope is for a fall to 30-day lower bollinger-band at 1.2162
  • Bears have managed to register a daily close below the 1.2319 Fibo
  • 1.2319 is 23.6% retrace of the 1.1553 to 1.2556 (November to February) rise
  • Fourteen-day momentum is negative, reinforcing the underlying bearish market
  • Looking to fade recovery attempts at the 1.2325 level

EUR/USD Trader:

EUR/USD Bollinger Chart: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 22 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - Higher U.S. Rates Weigh EUR/USD And Soft IFO Expected
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 22 - 02:40 AM
  • EUR/USD 1.2260-86 in Asia opens 1.2275 in Europe
  • U.S. rates up sharply in the wake of Jan Fed mins
  • 30-yr U.S. yield tops just shy 3.25% and 10's just short 3.00%
  • 110bp tightening by Jan 2020 now priced in by Fed funds (new high)
  • Spread vs bunds widen further weighing EUR/USD and encouraging profit-taking
  • German IFO data at 9GMT f/c 117 from 117.6, test Feb 9 low 1.2206 may follow

Fed funds: Click here

UST/bunds: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 22 - 03:48 AM
USD/JPY - Back To Stasis After To-Fro Earlier, Bias Neutral?
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 22 - 01:40 AM
  • USD/JPY down from early 107.78 high to 107.16 but some bounce later.
  • Risk-off sentiment strong, Nikkei closes down 1%+, US yields firm.
  • Fears of more hawkish-than-thought Fed weighing on risk.
  • Nippon Life promise to buy USD/JPY sub-105 shrugged off for now.
  • Option expiries cushion - total USD1.7 bln or so 107.00-20
  • Also USD1.3 bln at 107.50, stops sub-107.00, above 108.00.

USD/JPY: Click here

Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
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