• Cable has traded a 32.5 pip range since the London open; 1.3629 = session low

• Session high is 1.5 pips beyond Friday peak; 8.5 pips shy of Thursday top

• UK government abandons plan to postpone 30 local council elections in May

• Abandoned plan is great news for Farage's Reform UK, which leads opinion polls

• UK jobs/pay data due Tuesday at 0700 GMT; jobless rate forecast to rise to 5.2%

• Forty-one out of 63 economists polled by Reuters expect BoE rate cut in March

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/GBP continues to trade in relatively tight ranges as domestic political noise fades

• Though despite the dip back below 0.87, downside traction remains limited

• Lingering political risks surrounding Starmer's leadership will remain a GBP headwind

• This dynamic should keep EUR/GBP supported, with buyers emerging on dips toward 0.86

• Near-term support stands at 0.8660, marking the 200-day MAs

• On the topside, resistance sits at 0.8745-50 - a clean break would open up 0.88

• For now, consolidation is the name of the game as eyes turn to upcoming UK data for direction

• Reminder - UK jobs (Tue), CPI (Wed), Retail sales, flash PMIs (Fri)
EURGBP daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

(Typo corrected in author name)

• Cable broadly consolidating as political noise surrounding Starmer's future eases off

• That said, lingering political risks should keep topside contained

• Renewed flare ups will also likely see GBP come under renewed pressure again

• Gorton and Denton by-election on February 26 could serve as a fresh catalyst

• On the policy front, BoE's Mann sounded less hawkish, shifting focus towards sluggish jobs market

• Note that Mann was already more nuanced at the Feb meeting, suggesting the hawkish camp is fracturing

• BoE March cut odds sit at 70%, which leaves GBP vulnerable to downside surprises [0#GBPIRPR]

• Key data ahead - UK jobs (Tue), CPI (Wed), Retail sales, flash PMIs (Fri)
BoE pricing


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own) ((Email: ))

• USD/JPY broadly consolidating after sharpest weekly drop since Nov 2024 (-2.9%) - touch firmer

• Historically, when USD/JPY has fallen 2.8%+ in a week (since 2010), following week sees a modest bounce (0.1%)

• Consequently, a modest mean reversion would not surprise

• Softer JP GDP also adds to a mild bid tone but broader signals lean lower

• The pair continues to hold below the daily cloud (155.18), which should keep rallies capped, encouraging shorts

• Focus remains on 152.10 (post-NY Fed rate check low). A clean break here opens momentum risk for 150
USDJPY weekly change reaction


USDJPY daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

It appears that EUR/USD traders ran into a bull trap after buying heavily near the 1.2084 peak of this year's rally, only to see the pair drop. Traders added $7 billion to the current $27 billion in bullish wagers after January 26; the pair peaked at 1.2084 on January 27 and then fell to 1.1766 on February 6. Between February 2 and 9, speculators added to bullish bets, which grew from $24 billion to $27 billion.

While recent buyers are "buying the dip" and the pair has rallied slightly (to 1.1860 at the time of writing), a large and once-profitable $16 billion bet has been soured by nearly $10 billion of long positions added at elevated levels. The brief rise above 1.20, which encouraged traders to buy high, now has the appearance of a false breakout.

The addition of many more longs has worsened the average entry of the overall position - the second largest on record -and every similarly sized bullish build-up has previously preceded a significant EUR/USD drop. Long euro positions must eventually be unwound, and after the failure to sustain gains above the crucial 1.20 level, those holding longs have cause for concern but have opted to press the bet.
EURUSD and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD meets headwind pre-0.71 after rising from 0.7060 (Asia low)

• 0.7097 was Friday high (0.7098 was NY afternoon high last Thursday)

• Divergent RBA-Fed rate expectations are a key source of support for AUD/USD

• Minutes from the Feb 3 RBA meeting will be published on Tuesday

• Hawkish steers from RBA's Hauser, Bullock boosted AUD last week

• CFTC data showed net AUD long rose to 33,209 contracts in week to Feb 10

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 13 pip range thus far Monday; 1.3635-1.3648

• Those parameters are well within Friday's 1.3591-1.3660 range

• Friday's peak was scaled after cooler than expected U.S. CPI data

• 1.3670 was Thursday top, after 9.9 billion pound M&A deal news boosted GBP

• CFTC data: net GBP short rose for first time since November in week to Feb 10

• UK labour reforms to cut hiring by one in three employers, CIPD survey shows
(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD +0.2% Mon in thin trading ahead CN New Year holidays

• Combined with U.S. Presidents Day holiday Mon, market activity muted

• RBA Feb monetary policy meeting minutes due for release 0030 GMT Tue

• Hawkish RBA outlook & positive carry should stop AUD falling very far

• Fri's better than expected U.S. inflation increases likelihood of FFR cuts

• AUD needs fresh momentum uplift to mount challenge of 0.7158 resistance

• Range Asia 0.7060-86, support 0.6900 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Chinese gold jewellery maker and distributor Laopu Gold

jumps 7.2% to HK$792; set for biggest one-day pct rise since January 26

• Stock hits highest since February 11

• Laopu Gold, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd (CATL) , CMOC Group to be added to Hang Seng Index

effective March 9, Hang Seng Indexes Co said on Friday; Zhongsheng Group will be dropped from benchmark index

• Total number of constituents will increase from 88 to 90

• HK shares of battery manufacturer CATL rises 3.8% to HK$537, highest since November 14

• Chinese metals miner and processor CMOC jumps 7.7% to HK$23.4; set for biggest one-day pct gain since October 9

• Zhongsheng Group slips 3.2% to HK$11.8; set for biggest one-day pct drop since January 30

• YTD, Laopu Gold up 28%, CATL up 5.6%, CMOC up 20.4%

(Reporting by Donny Kwok)

• GBP/USD slipped to 1.3635 early Mon but finds a ledge, last 1.3645

• 21 DMA at 1.3635 has been a solid support in recent sessions

• If it holds again, 1.3700 psych barrier could be reclaimed

• USD tad pressured in Asia despite modest USD/JPY rebound

• Asia markets still reacting to Friday's poor US CPI

• Trading muted with several Asia markets and US also closed Mon
GBP


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/CNH inches up to 6.9030 from Mon opening 6.9011

• Rises marginally above Fri close, in very thin Asia trading

• Regional pairs mostly buoyant as USD/JPY attempts a bounce

• But deep decline in UST yields on Fri likely keeps USD restrained

• Ceiling of Bollinger downtrend channel 6.9140 unlikely to be tested

• Mainland China market closed, HK open but closed Tues-Wed
CNH


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY heavy and holding on a lower plane, Asia 152.57-153.06 EBS so far

• Some Tokyo fix demand eyed but looks to dissipate post-fix

• Levels eyed below include 152.28 low February 12, 152.10 low January 27

• 152.00-10 remains the level to break for many specs, sizeable stops on break

• Decisive break below this level and 151.97 Fibo level at 151.97 bearish

• 151.97 Fibo 38.2 retracement of 139.89-159.45 April 22 '25-January 14, '26

• Immediate resistance from 153.01-46 hourly Ichimoku cloud, 100-HMA 153.57

• US rates post-CPI lower, JGB-US Treasury rate differentials narrower

• Should keep downward pressure on USD/JPY along with general USD-aversion

• Most USD/JPY option expiries today to upside from 153.00, to help cap

• US Presidents Day holiday today, trading likely to be on thin side as result

• Related comments , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On US CPI , Fed-speak/on Fed ,
USD/JPY:


JGB-US Treasury 10-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD flatlines, trading subdued ahead U.S. and China market holidays

• RBA Feb monetary policy meeting minutes due for release 0030 GMT Tue

• Hawkish RBA outlook & positive carry will prevent AUD falling materially

• Fri's better than expected U.S. inflation increases likelihood of FFR cuts

• AUD +19.6% since Apr 2025 0.5910 low, rally extending, next target 0.7158

• Range Asia 0.7067-74, support 0.6900 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.4% from Fri 0.70435 low after cooler than expected U.S. inflation

• U.S. Jan CPI +0.2% m/m (poll +0.3%), +2.4% y/y (poll +2.5%)

• UST yields fall on rising probability of two or more FFR cuts this year

• RBA Feb monetary policy meeting minutes due for release Tue 0030 GMT

• RBA's hawkish bias & positive carry continues to support AUD

• AUD ytd rally intact, but needs fresh impetus to break 0.7158 resistance

• Range early Asia 0.7067-675, support 0.6900 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
U.S. Inflation & Interest Rates


AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NY opened near 1.1860 after EUR/USD slowly drifted downward overnight

• US yields , US$ fell sharply after Jan. CPI, EUR/USD hit 1.1885

• The US$ regained its footings however & firmed up, EUR/USD fell to 1.1848

• Yields extended their losses & spreads tightened, EUR/USD rallied again

• Gains in gold, silver, stocks & USD/CNH's downward move reinforced US$ selling

• EUR/USD hit 1.1882 then neared 1.1875 late, pair was up +0.03% late in the day

• Daily & monthly doji candles are in place, suggests indecision from investors

• Pair's hold below 50% Fib of 1.2084-1.1766 is a concerns for bulls

• EUR/USD remains above the 10- & 21-DMAs however which encourages bulls
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP$ firm in NY afernoon, +0.2% at 1.3649; NorAm range 1.3600-1.3660

• Early NorAm weakness reversed, pair moved steadily higher after US CPI release

• Jan core CPI y/y as f/c at 2.5%, HL CPI a tad lower at 2.4%; UST yield slide lifts GBP

• Fed rate cut odds drift higher for JUne 25bp cut, -63bp priced to Dec 2026

• UK GDP below-f/c on Thursday hints at more dovish BoE policy path as well, anchors GBP$

• UK employment data on Feb 17, CPI/RPI on Wednesday in focus for BoE policy clues

• GBP$ supt 1.3600 Fri low, 1.3571 rising 30-DMA, 1.3512 rising 50-DMA

• Res 1.3670 Thursday high, 1.3733 daily high Feb 4, 1.3838 upper 30-d Bolli

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ING Research summarizes its EUR/USD fair-value estimates.

"The short-term fair value of EUR/USD has dropped to 1.165 after the latest hawkish repricing in the USD curve, meaning the overvaluation gap has now widened too," ING notes.

"In line with our USD view, we are reluctant to see that gap being filled entirely, even if some downside risks for the pair remain," ING adds.

• NY opened near 0.7050 after AUD/USD traded lowever overnight, pair rallied early

• Below estimate headline US CPI sent yields , US$ broadly lower

• 0.7081 traded, US$ then rallied, AUD/USD fell below 0.7050 but then neared 0.7080 late

• Rallies in gold , silver , stocks & USD/CNH drop buoyed AUD/USD

• The pair erased most earlier & overnight losses, was down only -0.20% in NY's afternoon

• Falling dail yRSI concerns bulls but rising monthly RSI, hold above 10-DMA gives some comfort
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the USD outlook for the coming week.

"Looking ahead into next week, the ‘USD rebalancing’ theme could remain quite important and investors will scrutinise the TIC data for December looking for any indications that foreign demand for USTs and US stocks has started to taper off.

In addition, market participants will focus on core PCE deflator data for December, PMIs for February as well as the minutes from the January FOMC meeting and Fedspeak. FX investors will further keep an eye out for any headlines regarding SCOTUS’ long-anticipated verdict on the trade tariffs of the Trump administration," CACIB notes.

"In all, we continue to think that many Fed-related negatives are already in the price of the USD and would expect the currency to consolidate in the absence of data disappointments and/ or dovish surprises from the Fed in the near-term. It would take evidence that international investors continued to buy US assets, however, to give the USD a more lasting reprieve," CACIB adds.

Sterling is set for consolidation with an underlying bullish bias as global markets recalibrate the pace of monetary easing expected from the Fed and BoE.

The BoE outlook has transitioned toward a more dovish stance, especially after Thursday's UK GDP miss, which prompted traders to price in a more aggressive rate-cut cycle. Normally this would pressure the pound, but the impact is being mitigated by other structural factors.

Most notably, UK political concerns have largely abated in recent sessions, effectively removing a significant layer of downside pressure that had recently haunted the currency. With the domestic political landscape, and by association fiscal concerns, stabilizing, sterling is better positioned to reflect fundamental shifts rather than sentiment-driven risk.

Furthermore, more dovish Fed expectations are providing a tailwind for cable. Despite Wednesday’s well-above forecast U.S. non-farm and private payroll data, and today’s mostly in-line U.S. CPI report, front-end U.S. rate futures are pricing a more-dovish Federal Reserve pivot on rates, which, if it gains traction is likely to cap dollar gains.

Technically, GBP/USD faces resistance at the recently bruised 10-DMA of 1.3637 and more significantly at the Feb. 11 and Feb. 4 highs at 1.3712 and 1.3733, with a sustained break likely to target the 2026 high at 1.3867, struck on January 27.

Support is well-defined, beginning with the Ichimoku Conversion Line and 21-day SMA at 1.3621. A slide below this level would see the 50-DMA at 1.3511 come into focus. Deeper structural support resides at 1.3453, the 50% Fib of 1.3039-1.3867, below which the Jan. 19 low at 1.3321 may come quickly into focus.
GBP$ Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research previews next week's February RBNZ meeting and NZD outlook around meeting.

"Ahead of next week’s RBNZ meeting, our base case is for the OCR track to be adjusted higher, but below market current pricing, and as such, we see scope for a minor pullback in the NZD to below 0.60.

If this materialises, we view this as an opportunity to enter fresh long positions as we maintain our conviction of NZD appreciation to 0.64 at year end," ANZ notes.

"Our view is supported by positioning data which points to further room for a reduction in NZD/USD short positions. We have also revised up our farmgate milk price forecast to $9.50/kgMS for 2025/26 which points to further potential upside in the NZD from a terms-of-trade perspective," ANZ adds.

Bank of America Global Research discusses the scope for structural USD selling over the coming weeks.

"A report this week on China's regulator guiding banks to limit UST exposure weighed on USD, reigniting concerns around structural reallocation away from US assets. However, the diversification of China's holdings - both private and official - away from US assets has been evident in the data for a while. The share of USD bonds in China banks' external portfolio for instance already fell markedly in 2025," BofA notes.

"In terms of fresh structural USD selling, the focus should be on Europe where holdings are concentrated in equities with lower hedge ratios. Equity flows do not yet suggest a rush for the exit, but it seems likely that incremental flow will head more to non-US markets over time, in addition to the risk of higher hedge ratio," BofA adds.

• Eikon search string for individual stock moves: [STXBZ]

• The Day Ahead newsletter: Click here

• The Morning News Call newsletter: Click here

U.S. stock index futures were trading flat on Friday after an AI-led selloff, with investors staying on the sidelines ahead of inflation data that could provide more clarity on the Federal Reserve's rate-cut outlook. [.N]

• Pinterest Inc : BUZZ - Falls on weaker-than-expected revenue forecast

• Tri Pointe Homes Inc : BUZZ - Jumps after Sumitomo Forestry buyout deal

• Roku Inc : BUZZ - Shares climb as revenue forecast beats estimates

• Rivian Automotive Inc : BUZZ - Climbs on upbeat delivery outlook for cheaper R2 SUVs

• Prudential PLC : BUZZ - Shares fall for second day on Manulife read across

• Airbnb Inc : BUZZ - Shares climb as demand for premium stays persists

• Coherus Oncology Inc : BUZZ - Tumbles on $50 mln stock sale

• Hecla Mining Co :

• Coeur Mining Inc :

• Endeavour Silver Corp :

• Silvercorp Metals Inc :

BUZZ - Silver miners rise on dip-buying; markets await US inflation data

• Amkor Technology Inc : BUZZ - Falls on Kim Family's $488 mln secondary offering

• Newmont Corp :

• Gold Fields Ltd :

• AngloGold Ashanti PLC :

• Kinross Gold Corp :

BUZZ - Gold miners gain after bullion rises on dip-buying, markets await US inflation data

• Expedia Group Inc : BUZZ - Falls after forecasting slower 2026 adjusted core profit margin growth

(Compiled by Rajarshi Roy and Dharna Bafna)

• Only mid-way through Feb but EUR stalling could shape remainder of the mth

• Traders are still betting on a EUR/USD rise but position getting crowded

• The current net euro-long position is among the largest on record

• January saw EUR/USD climb clear above the 200-mth MA: closed below

• Failure to close above the average or the Sept 2025 1.1918 high significant

• Market has not closed above the 200MMA since 2015: currently at 1.1939

• EUR bulls watching potential 20-100 mth MA cross over: Jun 2022 last cross

• For now the trend is favouring longs but February could be a pivotal mth
EUR/USD Monthly Chart:


EUR/USD Weekly Chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)