• U.S.-listed shares of silver miners rise premarket, tracking gains in the white metal's prices [GOL/]

• Spot silver rises 4.3% to $81.32 per ounce

• Prices rise supported by a weaker dollar, as a slate of U.S. economic reports scheduled for this week brought investors' focus back to the trajectory of interest rates

• Hecla Mining up 1.5%; Coeur Mining up 1%

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver up 1.5%; Silvercorp Metals up ~2%

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust ETF both up 3.2%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

Gold, which many traders have sold, appears to be a far safer investment than the euro, which many have been buying. While both gold and the euro are considered safe assets, those that are less widely held are often safer than assets where positioning may be becoming crowded.

The contrast is stark. Bullish bets on gold have been purged to their lowest level since May 2025, when the precious metal was $2,000/oz cheaper than it is now - and about half of the recent selloff losses have already been swiftly recovered.

By contrast, speculators have added heavily to bullish euro bets near the peak of a major rally - and the euro has since fallen.

Both gold, which traded around $2,600/oz before the trade war was reignited in January 2025, and EUR/USD, which traded at 1.0125 in February 2025, have risen significantly. But where the rise in one asset has attracted large speculative demand, the other has not.

This divergence is unusual and supports the case for gold to rise further, even as the probability of a correction in the euro increases. With little to impede further gains, gold - driven by a source of demand far more powerful than the speculators who have been selling - could exceed its current record high of $5,595/oz. By contrast, it may be harder for EUR/USD to break and sustain levels above 1.20 while many traders are already betting on that outcome.
Gold sold and many more euros purchased


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD rises to 0.7042 as report about China-UST weighs on the U.S. dollar

• China urges banks to curb UST exposure, Bloomberg News reports

• 0.7042 is the highest level since Feb 4 (0.7043 was the high that day)

• AUD also benefits from higher gold price (Australia is a big gold producer)

• 0.7050 was last week's high (Feb 3), after AUD rose on RBA's hawkish hike

• Major Australian pension fund HESTA says AUD undervalued

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY first jumped to 157.95 in early trading and has subsequently dropped to 156.22 (EBS)

• Yen firms as intervention risk trips up Takaichi trade, after the PM swept to victory in Sunday's election

• Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura: government closely watching FX moves

• Direct intervention would likely see USD/JPY fill a gap under 150 that opened up in October

• However, USD/JPY's downside in the short-term is limited by the daily cloud that spans 154.72-156.24

•
Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 44 pip range thus far Monday; 1.3585-1.3629

• 1.3629 is 5.5 pips beyond Friday's high. 1.3508 was two-week low Friday

• Drop to 1.3508 was influenced by concerns about Starmer's ability to remain UK PM

• Starmer's top aide McSweeney quits over Mandelson-Epstein scandal

• CFTC data: net GBP short shrank for tenth consecutive week in week to Feb 3

• UST yields rise after report China urging banks to ease exposure

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD pressured by extended retreat in USD/JPY, lower USD/CNH

• USD/JPY backs off 157.72 early high to 156.43 last, intervention fears cap

• DXY last at 97.45, ranged 97.37-65 so far, off 97.76 before Far East opens

• USD/SGD heavy below 1.2700 support, eyes 1.2680, 1.2650 next

• USD/THB hits 31.20 low, election win boost THB gains, stocks rally

• USD/THB last at 31.20-22, traded amid 31.20-58 range so far

• USD/MYR pressured by inflows, good selling, traded 3.9250 low, last 3.93

• Targets 3.91 Jan 29 low, break to see 3.90.

• M'sia Dec IP up 4.8%y/y, in line with forecasts, was 4.3%y/y in Nov

• USD/IDR lower to 16840 low vs 16875 high, concerns on ratings to stall

• USD/INR consolidates above 90.0 handle, awaits US-India trade details

• Pair last at 90.41-43, ranged 90.38-69 so far

• Related
USD

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• AUD/USD +0.2% Mon after shrugging off softer Dec household spending data

• RBA likely to remain hawkish, positive yield differential supporting AUD

• AUD needs small momentum bump to ascend above 0.7158 3-year peak

• U.S. Jan non-farm payrolls due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +70k

• U.S. retail sales Tue, unemployment Wed, jobless claims Thur & CPI Fri

• Range Asia 0.7006-375, support 0.6895-00 0.6660, resistance 0.7158
AUD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD soft in Asia on UK political uncertainty, dovish BoE expectations

• Sunday resignation of UK PM Starmer's top aide McSweeney weighs on GBP

• McSweeney quits over Mandelson-Epstein scandal

• Starmer faces gravest crisis of his tenure over Mandelson appointment

• GBP upside limited as investors up bets on rate cuts after dovish BoE

• U.S. jobs report Wed, CPI Fri, UK Q4 GDP on Thu key this week

• Support 1.3550, resistance 1.3645-50; Asia range 1.3585-1.3620
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian mining stocks rise as much as 3%, helping the broader benchmark gain 1.5%

• Sub-index shed 6.3% in the previous two sessions of losses

• Copper snapped two straight days of losses on Friday to move back above the $13,000 level as investors bought into the dip [MET/L]

• BHP and Rio Tinto advance as much as 2.4% and 2.9%, respectively

• Rio notches an all-time high

• YTD, AXMM up 7.5%, outperforming AXJO's 1.4% rise

(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD +0.2% Mon as precious metals continue to recover (Gold +1.3%)

• AU Dec & Q4 household spending -0.4% m/m, +0.9% q/q (prior +1.0%, +0.2%)

• RBA likely to convey hawkishness at multiple speaking engagements this week

• AUD looks set to extend 2026 rally beyond 0.7158 3-year high

• U.S. Jan non-farm payrolls due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +70k

• U.S. retail sales Tue, unemployment Wed, jobless claims Thur & CPI Fri

• Range Asia 0.7006-375, support 0.6895-00 0.6660, resistance 0.7158
Gold Daily 21-DMA


AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

(Corrects USD/JPY high in fifth line)

• The Takaichi trade is back on with vehemence following the landslide LDP win

• PM Takaichi's LDP saw a resounding win in Lower House elections

• The LDP managed to take the majority of electoral districts

• Opposition left with proportional seats for most part, key members lost

• USD/JPY 157.95 EBS early Asia following this news, low so far today 156.65

• Some caution still over FX intervention from @158.00, awaiting word from MOF

• Takaichi win good for Japanese equities, upward pressure on rates, weak yen

• USD/JPY holding for most part above 156.47-86 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Ascending 100-HMA 156.50 towards cloud base, 200-HMA 155.13

• Still ascending daily cloud 154.71-156.24, underlining support?

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials at short-end of curve gapped down Friday

• Differential in 2s to 215 bps, diff in 10s narrower too, to 194 bps Friday

• In options, large expiries today between 157.00-10, some 155.00-05, 160.00

• On IMM CTA, JPY shorts down again to 19,222 contracts

• Related comments , , ,

• Also

• On Japan elections , , ,

• Trump/Bessent-speak , , on economy

• Bessent on USD , on Fed

• US markets , , ,

• Fed-speak , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:


(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Mon after Fri's resurgent 1.7% rally from 0.6897 low

• Precious metals strength gave AUD tailwind Fri, Gold +4.0% & Silver +9.5%

• AU Dec/Q4 household spending data due Mon (prior +1.0% m/m, +0.2% q/q)

• RBA likely to stress hawkish stance at speaking engagements this week

• U.S.-Iran tension eases as Iran makes positive remarks post-talks

• U.S. Jan non-farm payrolls due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +70k

• AUD looks set to extend 2026 rally beyond 0.7158 3-year high

• Range early Asia 0.7006-17, support 0.6895-00 0.6660, resistance 0.7158
AUD Weekly 52-WMA


AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The aussie was the big beneficiary on Friday as the U.S. dollar came under pressure from rallying risk markets, with gold, silver, and equity futures advancing while USD/CNH fell. In data, U.S. consumer sentiment edged higher and beat expectations, while one-year inflation expectations fell sharply from 4.0% to 3.5%, easing concerns about persistent price pressures.

Key U.S. data next week—including December retail sales, January payrolls, CPI, and weekly claims—pose volatility risks. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson expressed cautious optimism about 2026, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly characterized the economy as "precarious." Treasury Secretary Bessent said a strong-dollar policy means building conditions that underpin dollar strength.

EUR/USD opened New York trading near 1.1790 after touching 1.1766 overnight, then extended its advance to reach 1.1826 before settling near 1.1820. Bulls found technical support from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1572-1.2084 range and the 21-day moving average. ECB policymakers said current policy fits the inflation outlook but warned they must be ready to act if price growth weakens excessively. Separately, ECB officials cautioned that a sharp euro rise could prompt a policy response, noting the currency's strength mainly reflects dollar weakness rather than eurozone fundamentals.

GBP/USD held firm through the New York afternoon, trading up 0.7% at 1.3610 within a Friday range of 1.3509-1.3624. The broad risk rebound lifted sterling, considerably paring Thursday's post-Bank of England slide. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill warned against excessive comfort from an expected April inflation dip, stressing the need to prevent undershooting the target, while British house prices posted the best monthly gain since 2024 in January. The political fallout from UK PM Keir Starmer appointing Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington remains a downside risk.

USD/JPY settled above the cloud top and 21-DMA ahead of weekend Japanese elections, trading in a narrow 156.52-157.14 range below the key 158 level. The LDP is expected to secure a solid lower house majority. AUD/USD surged 1.44% to 0.7025, benefiting from precious metals gains and easing geopolitical tensions after Iran's top diplomat said Oman-mediated nuclear talks with the U.S. were off to a good start. USD/CAD fell 0.47% after Canada unexpectedly shed 24,800 jobs, though its unemployment rate fell to 6.5%. Treasury yields were mixed, sending the 2s-10s curve down about 1 basis point to +71.2bp as it pulled back from a four-year high.

The S&P 500 rose 1.74%. WTI oil was up 1.1% as investors assessed U.S.-Iran talks.

Gold rose 4%, silver popped 8% and copper gained 1.1%. Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.39%, USD/JPY +0.03%, GBP/USD +0.66%, AUD/USD +1.37%, DXY -0.23%, EUR/JPY +0.39%, GBP/JPY +0.67%, AUD/JPY +1.39%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the JPY outlook into Japan's Feb-8 snap elections.

"The JPY is heading into the weekend’s Lower House election on the backfoot as investors price in PM Sanae Takaichi’s strong popularity translating into votes and an outright victory by the LDP in the election.Indeed, polling is pointing to the incumbent LDP-JIP coalition winning over 300 seats. Winning over 310 seats in the Lower House would allow the coalition to override any Upper House veto, where the coalition lacks a majority," CACAIB notes.

The JGB curve could face steepening pressure following the election if the LDP wins an outright victory. Investors would price in greater fiscal sustainability risks with unbound “Sanaenomics”. The US-Japan box yield spread & the Nikkei are the strongest drivers of USD/JPY with Japanese politics dominating the Fed and BoJ as drivers of the exchange rate. A steeper JGB curve is negative for the JPY. Investors will be on alert for FX intervention post the election, however," CACIB adds.

Newly-minted USD/JPY longs appear uneasy ahead of weekend elections in Japan. Price gains since USD/JPY was near 152 have not translated into conviction, with positioning and options markets suggesting growing caution beneath the surface.

One-month USD/JPY risk reversals have risen to around 1.8% in favor of yen calls, with a similar tilt seen across the volatility curve. Bearish USD/JPY skews remain unusually wide following the sharp three-day slide tied to suspected rate checks in January, highlighting lingering downside sensitivity.

Election expectations themselves may be contributing to this nervousness. Markets largely anticipate the LDP securing a clear majority, with some polls pointing to 300+ seats and a small chance of a two-thirds supermajority, while 233 seats is viewed as the minimum outcome.

With optimism already fully priced and the Nikkei at a fresh record, the risk of an electoral letdown is non-trivial—an outcome that could allow the yen to claw back recent losses, with the passing of event risk also prompting some short covering.

Futures open interest has matched spot gains from 153 to a 157.34 high and is now sitting at a two-month peak. However, positioning is not yet extreme, suggesting bulls are reluctant to chase higher amid elevated volatility and persistent intervention risk.

A decisive break above 158 with a backdrop of subdued volatility, possibly due to equity gains, would be needed to open the path toward 160. Failing that, a slip back below the 21-DMA of 156.63 and cloud top at 156.35 could trigger a pullback toward the 154.72 cloud base where dip buying may be considered.
Yen


(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Bank of America Global Research discusses the USD and EUR outlook in the medium-term.

"The dollar has had a tumultuous January but has found its footing over the past week. We remain bearish but feel some of the hype over concepts such as "debasement" and "sell America" are overdone at this stage. Evidence thus far does not support these claims, though we do remain attentive going forward. We envision FX hedging as a much more plausible bridge between these potential risks and how investors are likely to react," BofA notes.

"Elsewhere, we maintain a constructive view on the EUR side of the equation, Overall, we look for the USD to grind lower vs several G10 currencies, both for US and non-US centric reason," BofA adds.

Despite today’s broad risk-on tone, sterling's 0.6% rise to 1.3608 is likely a temporary lift, as cable's outlook remains bleak amid a markedly more dovish Bank of England policy stance, which should weigh on medium-term prospects for the pound.

Thursday's surprisingly dovish 5–4 vote to hold the Bank Rate at 3.75%—versus the widely expected 7–2 split—triggered a slide in sterling, with GBP/USD falling to a 10-session low at 1.3509 amid broader risk ructions lifted the dollar.

The narrower-than-forecast vote revealed a more divided MPC and caught markets off guard, strengthening expectations that rate cuts could begin as early as March.

Governor Andrew Bailey’s acknowledgement that the BoE is close to neutral territory further influenced market perceptions, leading analysts to adjust their forecasts for a more aggressive easing cycle. With projections of softer UK inflation and rising unemployment, some analysts even foresee a 6–3 vote in favor of a 25 basis point cut at the March 19 MPC meeting.

Still, the policy path remains data-dependent, as wage growth remains a concern, and political uncertainty in the UK adds an additional layer of risk premium. With markets already pricing an earlier start to easing, incoming employment, wages and inflation data could either reinforce or challenge the newly dovish trajectory.

As expectations for faster UK rate cuts remain elevated, GBP/USD is likely to trade with a bearish bias, with any upward moves likely capped. A decisive break below 1.3453, the 50% Fib of 1.3039-1.3867, could lead to further declines, with bears targeting the January 19 low of 1.3321 and a series of daily lows on the way to late-November lows just above 1.30.
Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research discusses AUD/NZD outlook ahead of the RBNZ Feb-18 meeting.

"The New Zealand domestic calendar is light, leaving NZD/USD primarily driven by external factors. Rising optimism around the US economy has weighed on precious metal prices, which could be a headwind for the NZD at the margin," ANZ notes.

"In terms of crosses, relative rate dynamics are moving in favour of the AUD, following the RBA’s comparatively hawkish hike earlier this week. However, we are cautious on chasing the rally in the pair and will consider the pair a ‘sell on rallies’ above 1.1650 ahead of the RBNZ meeting on 18 February. CTFC positioning suggests the AUD is relatively extended, having turned net long recently compared to the NZD, which is still significantly net short," ANZ adds. 

CIBC Research discusses its reaction to Canada's January jobs report.

"Employment in Canada fell to start the year, but with fewer people seeking jobs the unemployment rate also surprisingly came down. The 25K decline in employment compared to a consensus expectation for a 5K gain, although the reduction was driven exclusively by part-time positions (-70K) with full time jobs actually increasing," CIBC notes.

"Overall, today's employment report was very much a mixed bag, with both employment and unemployment apparently declining in the same month. As a result, we doubt this will have much impact at the Bank of Canada, and it doesn't change our view that interest rates will be on hold for the remainder of this year," CIBC adds.

Feb 6 (Reuters) - Japan’s lower house election takes place on February 8. Into the event, USD/JPY holds around 157 with the yen staying offered. Polls suggest the Liberal Democratic Party will comfortably clear the simple majority threshold – 233 seats – with the ruling coalition likely securing around 300 to 310 seats, putting a supermajority within reach.

A strong LDP showing is largely in the price, limiting scope for yen weakness on the result. Spot remains close to rate-check territory around 158–159, which should continue to act as a natural topside cap before intervention risk re-emerges near 160.

While a landslide would keep fiscal expansion risk alive given less need to accommodate opposition parties, increased political stability under that outcome could offer some JPY support at the margin. That said, there’s also the risk of a classic buy the rumour, sell the fact type setup for USD/JPY.

The bigger market mover would come from a surprise no-majority outcome, which would likely trigger an initial leg lower in USD/JPY, but given the political uncertainty that would follow – potentially including Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s resignation – follow-through on the downside may prove limited.
USDJPY hourly chart fri


JP election polymarket


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• USD/ZAR has rallied in the wake of gold's unexpected drop

• After dropping to 15.6525 in January USD/ZAR reached 16.43 in Feb

• Possible false break (bear trap) under 15.9047 (61.8% 2021-2025 rise)

• Future close in relation to 100-MMA at 16.23 is important - USD/ZAR last 16.16

• Those who successfully gambled on ZAR rising have lots of profits to book

• Rising volatility and growing risk aversion may see UD/ZAR rise toward above 17

• The target for a minor correction of Apr 2025-Jan 2026 drop is 17.28

•
USDZAR


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Adds chart) The abrupt drop in the price of gold, which quickly spilled over to other metals, has been followed by a deeper decline in the value of cryptocurrencies. This could prove contagious, with investors booking profits or selling otherwise solid investments to cover losing bets. There are many profits to book - especially in equity markets which, aside from AI-linked stocks, still look remarkably robust - and in FX markets for those who have invested in risky but higher-yielding currencies that have boomed under the guise of carry trades over the past year.

The currencies being bought are mostly from emerging markets such as South Africa, Mexico, and Hungary, while safer currencies like the Swiss franc, yen, and U.S. dollar are often sold to fund those purchases.

While these bets are clearly risky, they have been hugely profitable - as have investments in equities and the euro, which have soared during the trade war, reinforcing the impression that they are safer than the global reserve currency.

When gold dropped, so did EUR/USD, creating the impression of a false break above the hugely important 1.2000 mark. That gave traders cause to book profits and, while the EUR/USD rise is less stretched and crowded than gold, it was overbought during the move above 1.20. The $20 billion wager on a rise is larger than any other bet reported by the CME.

The dollars that were sold are now being bought back during a period of growing risk aversion, giving traders a reason to realize profits. This heightens downside risks for the much less liquid emerging-market currencies that traders have flocked to over the past year.
Gold, USD index and bitcoin


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Bitcoin drops to $59930 on Feb 6

• The sell-off is stretched below $67690 base 20-week Bollinger bands

• The 200-WMA is $58057 and $57896 is 61.8% of the major uptrend

• Between 2022 and 2025 BTC rose $15632-126272 (61.8% is $57896)

• There is a good chance of a bounce given stretched nature of the drop

• A break of key support when drop stretched would be remarkably bearish

•
Bitcoin


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD hits 0.6963 after extending north from 0.6897 (two-week low)

• Rally from 0.6897 aided by precious metals prices ripping higher

• AUD/USD resistance levels include 0.6972 (Wednesday low) and 0.70

• 0.7050 was intra-week high on Tuesday, following RBA's hawkish hike

• RBA hike was needed to slow demand as inflation surged, Bullock says

• Rio Tinto's Australian investors applaud end to Glencore takeover talks

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)