• NY opened near 1.1560 after 1.1507 trded overnight, action was choppy early on

• Pair then dipped lower as US$ stayed firm and risk-off sentiment peristed

• Risk sentiment then improved however which began weighing down the dollar

• USD/CNH fell toward 6.9070 while stocks rallied towards flat

• Oil's sharp drop from overnight highs & lifts for gold & silver helped buoy risk

• EUR/USD rallied to 1.1600 then neared 1.1580 late, was down only -0.31% late

• Daily, monthly RSIs are falling but a daily bull hammer candle formed
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP$ off early weakness, -0.28% at 1.3387 in NY afternoon, Mon range 1.3408-1.3283

• Risk opened considerably weak amid oil rise toward $120, fades from high in NorAm

• Sterling bid sub-1.33 intact after 3rd test of 1.33 in 5 sessions

• Long tails near 1.33 hint at developing bid despite lingering geopolitical tensions

• UK SONIA futs hint at tumult, pricing higher rates in H2 2026; analysts see cuts

• LSEG's IRPR not indicating BoE, or Fed, cuts in Mar April 2026

• GBP$ res 1.3408 NY session high, 1.3425 daily high Mar 6, 1.3444 flat 200-DMA

• Supt 1.3369 rising 10-HMA, 1.3297 bruised lwr 30-d Bolli, 1.3255 daily low Mar 3

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses GBP near-term outlook.

"The GBP was able to hold its ground vs the resurgent USD in the wake of the US-Iran conflict better than the rest of the European G10 currencies. This reflects the impact of two key FX drivers," CACIB notes,

The first is the fact that UK rates investors have adjusted their BoE rate expectations more aggressively than other European investors in response to the latest oil price rally. As a result, the GBP regained some rate advantage over the EUR for example.

The second reason for the relative GBP resilience is the fact that the currency is the biggest short in the FX markets at present, and this may have helped mute its recent underperformance," CACIB adds.

• EUR/CHF bids emerge sub-0.90 - possible new line in the sand for the SNB

• Note that, the SNB flagged their discomfort of a strengthening franc last week

• Despite geo escalations, oil above $100, CHF has not caught a notable safe-haven bid

• Possible markets see SNB as a binding constraint

• As such, EUR/CHF topside risks look increasingly asymmetric from current levels

• Any credible de-escalation opens up the path to 0.92 in short-order

• First key hurdles stand at 0.9070/80 (200-hour MAs)
EURUSD hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Bank of America Global Research discusses USD/JPY technical setup.

"USDJPY has rebounded from support in the 152s (twice), broke above the Ichimoku cloud, may be forming a double bottom, MACD is positive, and the cloud may cross positive. The close above 157.76 favors a double bottom, weekly chart turn higher and further upside," BofA notes.

"Fibonacci extensions imply 161.26 / 163.43 can be reached. Ideally USDJPY remains above the daily Ichimoku cloud in the 155s. Our weekly chart is supportive," BofA adds.

(Updates)

• Shares of silver miners fall, tracking prices of the white metal [GOL/]

• Spot silver down 0.8% at $83.63 per ounce

• Prices pressured by stronger dollar and expectations of higher interest rates amid inflation concerns linked to the Middle East conflict

• Shares of miners Hecla and Coeur down between 5% and 6%, respectively

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver and Silvercorp Metals both dip ~5%

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF down marginally
(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

Morgan Stanley Research summarizes its tactical views on EUR, and JPY.

"EUR View: Neutral | Skew: Neutral We see risks as balanced for EUR/USD; a de-escalation scenario sees the pair rise to 1.18, while further escalation in energy supply volatility pushes the pair below 1.14. We think neither risk is fully priced by FX vol markets," MS notea.

"JPY View: Neutral | Skew: Neutral We turn neutral for risk skew on JPY amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions. Prolonged higher energy prices could worsen Japan's terms of trade and lead to weaker JPY, while the risk-off in global assets could lead to an unwinding of JPY carry trades," MS adds.

Goldman Sachs Research likes short EUR/CHF and long CHF/JPY as hedge trades against higher natural gas prices and rising global inflation risks.

"Given that CHF should continue to appreciate versus EUR if risks escalate we think short EUR/CHF expressions can be a good hedge against higher natural gas prices and Euro area current account risks,' GS notes.

"We also continue to think that long CHF/JPY is a good hedge against rising global inflation risks and can benefit in an environment where oil prices remain elevated for longer," GS adds.

• The eurozone imports oil while the U.S. exports it

• Oil closed at $93 barrel on Friday and rose to $119 barrel on Monday

• The huge rise in the price of oil - last $105 -should weigh EUR/USD

• EUR/USD fell to 1.1546 on Friday and opened at 1.1593 on Monday

• While the pair dropped it 1.1507 it then rebounded to 1.1573

• Oil is massively overbought and far more expensive - hedge FX accordingly

• Gold aggressively sold before a war that may boost its value

•
Brent crude oil


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Traders slashed bets on gold rising between mid-Jan and mid-Feb

• At 159k contracts bets on a rise are far smaller than 302k contracts start 2025

• Much less to stop gold - which hit a $5595/oz record high on Jan 29 - from rising

• Oil has soared which heightens inflation risk which should boost demand for gold

• The conflict in the Middle East should heighten the appeal of safer assets

• The gold rally is far less stretched in wake of the recent flask crash

• Trend is firmly up, few are long and there are more reasons to invest

•
Gold and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of gold miners fall premarket, tracking a decline in bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold down 1.5% at $5,090.53/ounce

• Bullion prices fall as a stronger U.S. dollar pressures the greenback-priced metal, while rising energy costs stoke inflation worries and reduce the chances of near-term rate cuts

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining down 3.9% and ~3%, respectively

• South African miners: Gold Fields , Harmony Gold , AngloGold Ashanti and Sibanye Stillwater decline between 3% and 5.5%

• Canadian miners: Agnico Eagle Mines falls 2.7% and Kinross Gold down 3.5%

(Reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru)

• Cable slid to 1.3283 in Asia as safe-haven USD jumped on oil's surge towards $120

• 1.3283 is the lowest level since March 3 (1.3255 was three-month low that day)

• Ensuing high is 1.3345, as oil prices retreat from four-year highs on FT report

• 1.3313-1.3425 was Friday range (when dollar fell on unexpected payrolls drop)

• CFTC data: net GBP short rose for fourth consecutive week in week to March 3

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Risk reversal options are a volatility trade which take advantage of a currency pairs direction

• EUR/USD risk reversals have been increasing volatility risk premiums for EUR puts over calls

• That's the right to sell EUR/USD versus buy it- prices have taken another leg higher Monday

• Benchmark 1-month 25 delta contract reached 1.7 Monday - a new high since October 2022

• That's up from a small topside strike premium in late Feb before Mid East conflict began

• 3-month 25 delta risk reversals now above 1.0 EUR puts - their highest in a year

• 1-year 25d risk reversal loses topside strike premium - now 0.1 EUR puts - last seen Apr 2025

• Related - Fear trade takes FX option costs toward year long highs
EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Traders have only unwound $7 billion of the $27 billion wager on euro rising

• EUR/USD has dropped 1.2084 to 1.1507 while bullish bets pared

• The remaining $20 billion is by far the largest existing FXwager

• Risk aversion evident due Iran war, bigger fall likely while more bets pared

• Target to correct EUR/USD's 1.0125-1.2084 rise is 1.1336

•
EURUSD and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Redcastle Resources jumps as much as 15.6% to A$0.185; marks steepest intraday pct gain since February 11

• Stock hits highest since February 24

• Diversified miner reports multiple thick, high-grade gold intercepts at Redcastle Reef deposit in co's Redcastle project area in Victoria

• Says drilling results provide "high level of confidence" in geological model, continuity of mineralisation across planned mining area

• YTD, RC1 soars 77.1%

(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)

• USD bid across the board with USD/JPY in the lead, Asia 157.81 to 158.90 EBS

• Escalation in Middle East conflict, possible prolongation behind rise

• Japan very dependent on Middle East energy imports, US not so much

• USD/JPY may be heading for test of 159.23 peak January 23, 159.45 January 14

• Maybe even 161.96 July 3, 2024 though intervention probably likely before

• Large option expiries to downside today supportive 157.25-158.05 $3.2 bln

• Japanese official-speak conspicuous in its absence today

• Nikkei down over 7%, JGB yields jump on inflation fears, markets in turmoil

• Tokyo pundits see possible stagflation ahead despite good data so far

• Japan wages up in Jan, large hikes eyed in Apr, Feb loans continued to rise

• EUR/JPY tad lower but steady in 182.43-80 EBS range, above 181.84 100-DMA

• GBP/JPY 210.48-211.60, still ensconced in 209.53-212.20 daily Ichimoku cloud

• CHF/JPY buoyant but sub-203.99 record high March 2, Asia today 202.37-203.53

• AUD/JPY sideways on higher plane, 110.18-111.12, recent high March 3 112.09

• Related , , on Japan data
USD/JPY hourly:


Nikkei 225:


Yield on JGB 10s - hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD down 0.8 in Asia as the safe-haven dollar rallies broadly

• Opens at 1.3364 from 1.3425 NYK close, trades a 1.3283-1.3377 range

• Risk aversion grips markets; crude oil surges 28% on US-Israeli war on Iran

• Wall Street futures, Asia stocks slide; risk-sensitive GBP hit hard

• Trump calls for Iran’s "unconditional surrender"

• Iran defies Trump, picks Khamenei's son, a hardliner, as successor

• Threat of global recession, energy price shock will continue to weigh on GBP

• Support at 1.3255, Mar 3 low followed by 1.3213, 76.4% Fibo of Nov-Jan rally

• Resistance 1.3350-55, 1.3375-80
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD -0.8% in volatile Asia as traders scramble for safety of USD

• Gaps down to 1.3364 at the open from NYK's 1.3425 close; hits low of 1.3298

• Risk aversion grips markets; crude oil surges 20% on Middle East conflict

• Trump calls for Iran’s "unconditional surrender" as war rages

• Iran defies Trump, picks Khamenei's son, a hardliner, as successor

• Threat of global recession, energy price shock will continue to weigh on GBP

• Strong supports at 1.3295-1.3300, break opens test of 1.3255, low on March 3

• Resistance 1.3350-55, 1.3375-80; Fri range 1.3313-1.3425
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 4%, their lowest level since February 9

• Sub-index slumps tracking broader gold prices which fall 2%

• Northern Star Resources fall as much as 4.1% and Evolution Mining sheds 4.4%

• Sub-index has risen 1.1% this year, including session moves
(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)

• NZD/USD -0.6% Mon as weekend Iran war news triggers safe haven DXY demand

• NZD consolidating below 0.5876 200-DMA, downside extension likely

• Oil spike detrimental to NZ economy heavily reliant on refined fuel imports

• Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi says oil could reach $150 a barrel

• U.S. Feb non-farm payrolls -92k (poll +59k), stokes FFR uncertainty

• Range NZ 0.5854-78, support 0.5580, resistance 0.6012 0.6076 0.6092
NZD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD -0.5% from Fri close as DXY buyers emerge in early trading Mon

• Broad USD index up 0.5% as weekend Iran war news prompts safe haven buying

• Oil prices spike as production cutbacks mount amongst Gulf States

• Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi says oil could reach $150 a barrel

• U.S. Feb non-farm payrolls -92k (poll +59k), stokes FFR uncertainty

• Short term EUR support near Tue 1.1530 low, but remains pressured overall

• Fri's break below 1.1574 52-WMA a very bearish signal

• EU Jan industrial production data due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +0.5% m/m

• Range Asia 1.1546-98, support 1.1490 1.1470 1.1392, resistance 1.2084
EUR Daily 55-DMA


EUR Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.7% in early trading Mon as impacts from U.S.-Iran war solidify

• Oil sharply higher as storage capacity limits trigger production cutbacks

• Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi says oil could reach $150 a barrel

• U.S. Feb non-farm payrolls dissappoint, -92k versus poll consensus +59k

• RBA's Hauser says any change to USD safe haven status will be glacial

• AUD under pressure short term, solid support 0.6895-0.6945 should hold

• Range early Asia 0.6982-0.7005, support 0.6944 0.6900, resistance 0.7158
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD (+0.3%) broadly consolidates as intra-day ranges tighten. Range: 0.6977-0.7047

• Payrolls miss provides brief respite for AUD/USD. Middle East conflict is still the focus

• 200-hour MAs at 0.7050-70 keep a lid on rebounds

• Sellers will continue to keep the weekly low at 0.6945 in sight

• That said, near-term support at 0.6980-0.7000 holds firm for now

• Going forward, geo tensions should drive the action
AUDUSD hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Goldman Sachs Research raised its Oil and USD/JPY forecasts earlier this week.

"Raised our 2Q26/4Q26/2027 Brent crude oil price forecasts to $76/$66/$70/bbl (from $66/$60/$65/bbl) and our average 2Q26 European (TTF) natural gas price forecast to €45/MWh (from €36/MWh) to reflect energy disruptions related to the ongoing conflict with Iran," GS notes.

"Raised our 3/6/12m USD/JPY forecasts to 160/158/155 (from 157/155/152) to reflect further depreciation pressure following the landslide LDP victory," GS adds.