• AUD/USD +0.15% late Wed as positivity on U.S.-Iran peace prospects continues

• Gold +4.2% as UST yields dipped with Brent crude staying below $80 a barrel

• Iran threatens to hit Gulf states it the U.S. renews its attacks

• Attention switching to U.S. Jul non-farm payrolls due Fri (poll +80k)

• AUD needs break above 0.7088 resistance to trigger next leg higher

• AU Jul balance of goods due Thur, Reuters poll consensus 1.1 bln deficit

• Overnight range 0.7040-65 support 0.6920, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA


Gold Daily 21-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

ANZ Research discusses NZD/USD and RBNZ rates outlook into year-end. ANZ targets NZD/USD at 0.58 by end of Q3 and at 0.60 by year-end.

"We expect the NZD/USD to finish the year at 0.60 and see the RBNZ lifting the official cash rate a further 50bp before the end of the year, before holding at 3.00%. In contrast, our forecast calls for key policy rates in both the US and Australia to hold at current levels, before which the RBA is expected to ease 50bp across 2027. The US likely won’t begin easing until 2028," ANZ notes.

"The NZD should therefore find support from a narrowing interest rate differential. Outsized net short positions are also weighing down the NZD. We see scope for positions to walk back, lifting constraints for the NZD. Geopolitical tensions and energy prices do remain potential headwinds to NZD performance against the USD and AUD given New Zealand’s energy importer status," ANZ adds.

• GBP$ up a smidge in NY afternoon, +0.08% at 1.3467; NorAm range 1.3486-49

• Slight range as Geopol and intervention themes lose veracity; long-end gilt yield dip

• Trader await Friday's U.S. payroll data for clues to near-term Fed policy, post-Fed hold

• Beyond Friday's data, traders will be focused on Aug 12 US CPI, Aug 19 UK CPI

• Liquidity light owing to dearth of news, summer liquidity; GBP shorts unwinding

• GBP$ res 1.3486 Wed high, 1.3500/05 psychological lvl/Aug 3 high, 1.3536 upper 30-d Bolli

• Supt 1.3449 Wed low, 1.3401- the flat 200-DMA, 1.3370 30-DMA

GBP$ Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1540 after EUR/USD slowly moved upward overnight

• Rally extended early NY on broad-based USD selling, tighter US-DE spreads

• Gains in gold, silver and equities also contributed to the US dollar selling theme

• EUR/USD hit 1.1557 then dipped to 1.1540 as USD, US yields traded firmly

• The dip was bought as yields turned down & USD weakened again

• EUR/UDS sat near 1.1555late, the pair traded up +0.18% in NY's afternoon

• Techs lean bullish; RSIs are rising & EUR/USD is above the 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs

• Ongoing consolidation of gains off the July 28 low adds to bullish signals
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7045 after AUD/USD traded a tight 0.7040-0.7056 range overnight

• The pair rallied early on broad-based USD selling, gains in gold, silver, copper, equities

• 0.7065 traded, the pair then dipped as USD/CNH moved upward & stocks weakened

• US yield move lower helped to limit AUD/USD's pullback from the high

• The pair sat near 0.7055 late in the day, it traded up +0.10% as of this writing

• Techs lean bullish; RSIs are rising, pair is above 10-, 21-, 55- & 200-DMAs

• The August monthly long-legged doji candle reinforces the bullish tech signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research reviews the latest BoJ minutes from the June meeting.

"The minutes of the June BoJ policy meeting, when the BoJ raised rates to 1.00%, revealed that several members believed that monetary conditions would remain accommodative after that agreed rate hike. It was also evident in the minutes that inflation risks would remain to the upside and that there was a possible justification in considering a faster pace of monetary tightening to manage upside inflation risks," MUFG notes.

"The minutes today certainly opened up the prospect of a sooner rate hike. The implied probability of a September hike has now increased to close to 60%. Data released today also reinforces the prospect of a hike. Labour cash earnings increased 3.4% YoY in June, up from 3.2%. The same sample reading that the BoJ monitors for consistency jumped sharply, from 2.9% to 4.4%. This is yet more data indicating upside inflation risks that we believe should convince the BoJ to raise rates in September – a development that would help back up the intervention especially if a deal for a more lasting Middle East ceasefire is about to be announced in the meantime," MUFG adds.

• Shares of gold miners rise as bullion climbs to highest level in almost seven weeks

• Spot gold up 4.09% at $4,242.57/oz, after hitting its highest level since June 18 at $4,258.99, amid lower Treasury yields and hopes for progress in efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz [GOL/]

• Newmont jumps 7.7%, while Barrick Mining

rises 7.3%

• Royal Gold and AngloGold Ashanti rise 5.2% and 8.6%, respectively

• Canadian miners Kinross Gold up 8.6%, while Agnico Eagle Mines jumps 9.1%
(Reporting by Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru)

Societe Generale Research discusses the latest wave of yen intervention

"We still think that what will trigger a durable yen rally will be a rise in consensus forecasts of Japanese growth, rather than more, bigger intervention, coordinated or otherwise. More, or faster BoJ rate hikes won't solve the problem either, unless the Japanese growth outlook makes them appear realistic. Both the Japanese and Eurozone economies are expected to grow by around 0.6% this year, but the consensus economist thinks the gap will widen again in the Eurozone's favour next year. Japan has a much higher debt/GDP burden than the eurozone, and both real and nominal yield differentials are much narrower than they used to be," Socgen notes.

"This means that if Japanese growth remains weak, higher JGB yields will increasingly be unhelpful for the yen. The good news is that the sooner the war in the Gulf draws to an end, the sooner the Japanese growth outlook can recover and the easier it will be for Scott Bessent and Satsuki Katayama to engineer a longer- term change in the yen's prospects. In the meantime, a drift back up in USD/JPY seems a significant risk, bringing with it an increased risk of another round of FX intervention," SocGen adds.

EUR/USD edged higher on Wednesday, holding near its recent 1-1/2-month high as the pair consolidates gains made since its July 28 low. The steady trade reflects a combination of bullish influences currently in place, with long-positioned investors now hoping that Friday's U.S. July payroll report can help reignite the broader rally.

These bullish influences stem from three main sources: market positioning, inflation-rate expectations, and yield differentials.

On positioning, the latest CFTC data show the net-long U.S. dollar positions have hit record highs, while the net-short euro positions are at their largest since December 2024, suggesting room for a reversal.

Meanwhile, U.S. breakeven inflation rates and inflation-linked swaps have been moving lower again, as the recent drop in oil prices leads investors to expect cooling inflation—a dynamic that could shift market focus more squarely onto the upcoming jobs report. Additionally, U.S.-German 2-year yield differentials have tightened slightly since last week, further supporting EUR/USD's recent climb.

Attention now turns to the July U.S. payroll data, especially after the July ADP employment report missed estimates and June's figure was revised lower. Should July nonfarm payrolls disappoint and the unemployment rate rise above expectations, it would likely weigh on the dollar as markets scale back expectations for Fed tightening and increase bets on future rate cuts. In that scenario, dollar-long investors may begin unwinding those trades, while U.S.-German yield spreads could narrow further. This combination could give EUR/USD the spark needed to break higher, potentially pushing above the 200-day moving average and toward resistance near 1.1800.
usdcftc


eurcftc


usbei


usinfl


eurusd


eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research answers 10 frequently asked questions on the latest wave of JPY intervention.

"The Japanese and U.S. authorities conducted a coordinated FX intervention on 31 Jul. Both governments have acknowledged that the intervention was carried out. While the amount of yen buying by the US may be limited, the signaling effect of this rare, coordinated intervention is significant. We answer 10 frequently asked questions, and take this opportunity to revise down our 3Q26 USD/JPY forecast to 153 from 154 and year-end target to 149 from 152," Bofa notes.

"1. What's the short-term objective? - Break 155

2. What's the long-term goal? - Restore credibility and stabilize JPY

3. What is the significance of coordination? - Remove limit; broader policy response

4. Why did the US join intervention? - Stabilize JGB & UST; correct yen's valuation; more

5. What does the FX intervention imply for BoJ policy? - Potentially faster rate hikes

6. What else can Japan do? - Increase demand for yen assets

7. What's the implication for JPY? - positive; we revise up JPY forecasts

8. What's the implication for JGB? - prefer long 30yr ASW rather than curve trade

9. How is MoF intervention be funded? - Likely involves UST sales

10. What's the implication for USD and EUR rates markets? - Limited," BofA adds.

• AUD/USD rallied to 0.7056 overnight then turned lower, hit 0.7040

• NY opened near that low, the pair traded down -0.06% in early action

• Firmer US yields , USD/CNH gains helped limit AUD/USD's topside

• Copper's turn lower also helped to cap AUD/USD's upside

• Rallies in gold, silver and equities heloped prevent a deeper fall for AUD/USD

• Techs lean bullish; monthly RSI is rising, pair above 10-, 21- 55- & 200-DMAs

• Consolidation of gains off the July 29 low persists, is a bullish signal

• US July ADP, ISM non-manufacturing PMIs are data risks in NY's morning
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Gold is up sharply on the day, +2%, marking its biggest one-day gain since July 2

• The move looks like catch-up to the improvement in risk sentiment, alongside the recent pullback in U.S. yields

• Even so, the broader setup remains contained, with a well-defined $3960-4200 range still holding

• Barring a clean break above $4200, gold likely remains stuck in the same range-bound trade

• Near-term event risk sits with U.S. ADP and ISM services, though payrolls will be the real driver for the next leg

• For now, there are still no clear signs that a range break is imminent
gold daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• AUD trades above the 0.7020-30 resistance band, but upside has stalled ahead of the weekly high at 0.7069

• The pair remains supported by the AUD/NZD bid following the NZ jobs data

• While the rebound in gold is offering a modest tailwind

• That said, with broader appetite still lacking to drive USD lower, spot is likely to stay rangebound in the near term

• Resistance is layered at 0.7080-0.7100 and should cap ahead of Friday’s payrolls

• Initial support sits at the 200-hour MA around 0.6999-0.7010, with a deeper cushion at 0.6950
AUDUSD hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• USD/JPY has seen a 157.32-157.85 rise, on Wednesday, according to EBS data

• Yen steadies after the recent rounds of intervention

• The recent price action hints at a downside rejection at least in the near-term

• There is scope for near-term recovery USD/JPY moves to the 158.56 Fibo

• 158.56 Fibo is a 38.2% retrace of the recent 163.99-155.20 intervention fueled slump

• Japan PM Takaichi asked BOJ to buy more bonds when needed, Jiji reports

• Plenty of talk from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent on BOJ, support for Japan yen moves

Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10am New York/15:00 GMT on Wednesday August 5

• EUR/USD: 1.1415-20 (1.3B), 1.1430-35 (210M), 1.1450-55 (2.1B), 1.1460-65 (1.4B), 1.1470-75 (1.9B), 1.1480 (306M)

• EUR/USD: 1.1500-05 (2.0B), 1.1510-15 (817M), 1.1535-40 (552M), 1.1545-50 (707M), 1.1560-65 (481M), 1.1590-95 (207M)

• EUR/USD: 1.1600 (517M), 1.1745-50 (934M)

• USD/JPY: 155.35-40 (1.1B), 156.00 (228M), 158.00 (408M), 159.00-05 (452M), 159.5000 (780M), 160.50-55 (736M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3370 (230M), 1.3425-30 (702M), 1.3505-10 (321M). EUR/GBP: 0.8580 (336M)

• EUR/NOK: 10.5000 (257M), 11.1000 (252M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6925-30 (465M), 0.6945-50 (688M), 0.6995-00 (932M), 0.7020-25 (386M), 0.7050-55 (450M), 0.7250 (731M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5650 (555M), 0.5760 (308M). USD/CAD: 1.3950-55 (876M), 1.4000 (237M), 1.4050-55 (475M)

• USD/ZAR: 16.6000 (449M), 16.7500 (472M)
(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD 1.1525-40 EBS range on Wednesday

• Overbought conditions are easing

• Scope for rise toward peak 20-day BBs at 1.1552

• Peak of daily Ichimoku cloud and 100-DMA are 1.1561

• Traders are short, oil down, techs more bullish

• Run on stops likely should pair rise over 1.1561

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of JCHX Mining Management climb 7.2% to 76.7 yuan, on track for their biggest one-day pct gain since July 22

• Stock touches the highest point since July 31, snapping two straight sessions of fall

• China-based mining services and mine resource development group says its Zambia unit wins copper mining contract valued at about $115 mln

• YTD, stock up 0.5%, benchmark CSI300 Index up 0.4%

(Reporting by Donny Kwok)

• AUD/USD +0.4% wtd, extends rally into a sixth-consecutive week

• Claims of U.S.-Iran peace progress moderates oil prices, WTI -1.6% Wed

• AUD break above 0.7088 resistance required to enable next leg higher

• Bessent says U.S. committed to support of JP after recent JPY intervention

• AU Jul balance of goods due Thur, Reuters poll consensus 1.1 bln deficit

• Range Asia 0.7040-534 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Wed, trading subdued as markets seek fresh inspiration

• CN Jul RatingDog services PMI 50.4(prior 54.1), AU Jul S&P services PMI 53.6

• AUD 0.7088 resistance hard to break, but would flip recent bearish narrative

• Brent crude trading below $80 a barrel on claims of U.S.-Iran peace progress

• Bessent says U.S. committed to support of JP after JPY intervention

• AU Jul balance of goods due Thur, Reuters poll consensus 1.1 bln deficit

• Range Asia 0.7040-534 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian miners rise as much as 2.5%, their highest level since July 6

• The sub-index on course for fourth consecutive session of gains, if current trend holds

• Miners rise on the back of rise in copper prices, which hit their highest point in more than two months on dwindling inventories outside the U.S. [MET/L]

• Mining giants BHP Group and Rio Tinto rise more than 1.5% each

• YTD, sub-index up 13.1%

(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY and JPY in general still market focus after joint intervention

• More comments from US TsySec Bessent to continue to help cap USD/JPY

• Bessent said sure BOJ Gov Ueda would "do what is best"

• Added many Asian currencies including KRW and CNY follow JPY moves

• USD/JPY still capped ahead of its ascending 200-DMA at 158.02 today

• Range in Asia so far 157.58-80 EBS, follows 157.22-96 range yesterday

• Key resistance between 157.90-158.00, daily Ichi cloud 158.92-161.41 above

• Spot holding in 156.82-158.05 hourly Ichimoku cloud, tenkan/kijun 157.64/58

• Japanese importer USD demand strong, will continue to limit USD downside

• Nikkei on rise this morning, foreign buys and currency hedges again?

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials in narrowing mode, BOJ hike in September?

• Differential in 2s off to around 267 bps, in 10s to around 182 bps

• Will BOJ do "what's best"? Totan Research/ICAP probability to 47%

• This contrasts with growing view Fed will hold rates as is this year

• In options, smattering of expiries in area today but nothing massive

• Related comments , , ,

• And , ,

• Also , , on FX intervention

• On Bessent-speak , , ,

• US markets , , ,

• On US economy , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:


Nikkei 225:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD -0.2% Wed as Q2 employment data undermines RBNZ's hawkish posturing

• NZ Q2 HLFS unemployment 5.6% (poll 5.4%), labour cost index +0.7% q/q

• Critical NZD pivot at 0.5873 at risk (again), break below bearish

• U.S. equities close at record highs on positive earnings, Middle east hopes

• Claims of progress in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations continue, WTI -6.3%

• Bessent flags ongoing U.S. support for JP after JPY intervention

• Range NZ 0.5879-96, support 0.5627 5580, resistance 0.5990-95 0.60925
NZD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.7% from Tue 0.6997 low as markets turn broadly positive

• U.S. equities hit record highs on positive earnings, Middle east hopes

• Brent crude -6.0% amid ongoing claims of progress in Iran peace talks

• Bessent reaffirms ongoing U.S. support for JP in wake of JPY intervention

• AUD targeting 0.7085-90 resistance, breakout would reinvigorate weary bulls

• AU Jul S&P services PMI, CN Jul RatingDog services PMI both due Wed

• Overnight range 0.7015-485 support 0.6920, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Goldman Sachs Research shifts to a neutral bias on GBP in the near-term.

"We see near-term risks to Sterling as being more balanced, and closed out of our tactical short GBP/USD recommendation. Over the medium term, we continue to expect Sterling underperformance, driven by bouts of fiscal premium and an unwind of BoE hike pricing. On the former, after some question marks around funding propositions in week one, fiscal news in the second week of the Burnham government has been comparatively light," GS notes.

"We suspect this largely remains the case until closer to the Autumn budget (announced for October 28), arguing for a passage of more muted vol from swings in fiscal premia. But with many of the fundamental constraints to fiscal policy still in place, and recent rebounds in energy prices and Gilt yields amplifying those challenges, we remain of the view that when that fiscal vol does return, it is likely to produce short-lived but asymmetrically negative bouts of Sterling pressure," GS adds.