The dollar rose broadly on Thursday, supported by another jump in oil prices and renewed haven demand as equities slumped. Oil rose more than 6% on supply concerns as the Iran conflict widens with Turkey condemning the Iranian drone attacks in Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave. U.S. President Donald Trump told Reuters the U.S. Iran operation is ahead of schedule though declined to give a timeline, adding that he wants to be involved in choosing Iran's next leader. He also expressed support for Kurdish forces launching an offensive against Iran and said he would take assistance from any country when asked about an offer of support from Ukraine on drones. In U.S. data ahead of Friday's payrolls report, jobless claims were largely unchanged in the latest week and Challenger's measure of announced job cuts fell to 48.3K in February. Three ECB policymakers warned that a prolonged Iran war drawing in more countries would likely push euro-zone inflation higher and weigh on growth. Separately, Israel's ambassador said it will soon become much harder for Iran to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and noted that Tehran’s missile fire is already declining. The dollar index stopped short of its weekly high seen after the first wave of attacks on Iran though one-month risk reversals favor further upside should volatility remain high. Any close above the 100 level would likely point to further gains.

EUR/USD traded heavy below 1.16 with elevated oil prices reinforcing the terms-of-trade drag. Rebounds near-term focus on Tuesday’s 1.1530 swing low, a break of which could open the way to 1.14. GBP/USD softened, but long tails suggest support near 1.33. Price action is largely driven by ongoing U.S./Israel–Iran hostilities though sticky UK inflation plus rising wages limit the scope for a more dovish Bank of England outlook. AUD/USD slid as a softer risk tone amid geopolitical tensions, higher Treasury yields, sliding CNH and lower metal prices weighed. Limited signs of de-escalation were keeping risks skewed lower into the weekend with near-term support at 0.6980–0.7000.

USD/JPY held firm as Iran-related escalation pushed WTI toward $80/bbl and weighed on equities. A bullish candle lends support though the pair is struggling to top 158 as intervention risks linger.

Treasury yields were up 4 to 6 basis points in solid futures turnover with the 2s-10s curve slipping to a new year-to-date low of +53.9bp.

The S&P 500 fell 1.29%.

Gold slid 1.2% and copper dropped 1.7%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.42%, USD/JPY +0.46%, GBP/USD -0.31%, AUD/USD -1.23%, DXY +0.47%, EUR/JPY +0.02%, GBP/JPY +0.11%, AUD/JPY -0.77%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

Nomura Research lowers the conviction on its long EUR/GBP position, with a target of 0.8950to to 3/5 from 4/5.

"We have been running a long EUR/GBP position, built around the view that cyclical interest rate pressures would be negative for GBP, and that political risks were more skewed to the downside in the UK. The escalation of military activity in the Middle East clearly raises the risk of more significantly negative terms-of-trade shocks for both economies and the risk of significant inflation pressures, if energy prices stay elevated," Nomura adds.

"In the short term, EUR may face slightly more pressure than GBP from these forces. The other near-term downside risk for EUR/GBP is that front-end rates pricing may have more scope to support GBP than EUR," Nomura adds.

• Cable elicits fresh support circa 1.3300 after USD demand-spurred drop

• More tankers come under attack as US-Iran conflict escalates

• Prior bids near 1.3300 propped GBP/USD in Asia, and on Wednesday

• 1.3372 was early NY high (1.3372 was also London morning high)

• More bids likely near 1.3250 (1.3255 was three-month low on Tuesday)

• U.S. NFP data due Friday; 59k expected. Weekly jobless claims 213k

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses the FX hedge trades to the war in Iran.

"There is still value in Iran hedges near-term - apart from short NZDUSD, we have argued that long CAD (vs. EUR & JPY) screens well for a higher energy price regime but more benign global spillover," BofA notes.

For normalisation trades, we like buying AUD crosses on dips, which have admittedly been shallow so far, and fading the skew premium in EURCHF. EURUSD is testing the bottom of its range but our base case of no protracted conflict, as well as lighter positioning, keeps us constructive medium-term," BofA adds.

• EUR/USD lingers around 1.16 with upside remaining capped ahead of the 200DMA

• Commodity prices stay elevated, which should continue to act as a drag on EUR

• Near-term support stands at 1.1572 and 1.1530 (weekly low)

• Below 1.1530 would likely embolden sellers to push for a move to 1.14

• Middle East developments will remain the dominant driver in the short-run

• ECB accounts show growing inflation undershoot worries before Iran war

• EUR's terms of trade hit suggests revisiting the 2022 playbook
EURUSD daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Goldman Sachs Research previews the US February jobs report on Friday.

"We forecast a 45k increase in payrolls (vs. consensus 60k) and a 0.1pp increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4% in February," GS notes.

"We expect a 31k drag on payrolls from strikes and a modest headwind from severe winter weather.  Big data indicators of job growth were mixed. We expect the unemployment rate to rise because there appears to be positive residual seasonality in February—the unemployment rate rose in each of the last three years by 0.15pp on average," GS adds.

Societe Generale Research sees a scope for selling USD/JPY around current levels.

"The US authorities still want a weaker dollar...2.5% GDP growth and a 5% GDP fiscal deficit aren't compatible with rates low enough to push EUR/USD higher, but they may have more luck in Asia.

The Chinese authorities seem inclined to tolerate modest yuan appreciation, and the Japanese authorities would welcome a slightly stronger currency, too," SocGen notes.

The yen hasn’t reacted to higher oil prices or higher Treasury yields. Maybe, at these levels it can soak up bad news and would react to either good news, or further signs of US willingness to try and help it strengthen," SocGen adds.

• Cable has traded a 55 pip range since 0700 GMT; 1.3317-1.3372

• Those parameters are within the 1.3308-1.3386 Asian session range

• They are also within Wednesday's 1.3304-1.3403 range

• 1.3403 approximates to the 100-day moving average

• U.S. Challenger layoffs data 1230 GMT. UK construction PMI 44.5 vs 47 f/c

• UK firms' wage growth expectations stick near 4-year low, BoE survey shows

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY is trading below this week's 157.97 peak, registered on Tuesday

• Thursday has seen a 156.46-157.38 range so far, according to EBS data

• USD/JPY bullish while it trades above the thin daily cloud, that spans 155.72-78

• Note, general dollar shorts remain in grave danger

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

March 5 (Reuters) - EUR/USD is on track for its worst weekly performance since April 2024, currently down 197 points, surpassing the August 2025 drop of 189 points-EBS price data.

Despite a modest corrective bounce on Wednesday, bearish pressure is clearly building again, and the risk remains skewed to the downside.

The monthly chart shows the February and March weakness eroding a shallow long-term bull run. A drop under the November 14.6900 low point could cement the EUR's fate.

The recent price action suggests that Tuesday's 1.1531 low is the first key support to watch, with further notable levels at 1.1492, November 21 low, and the 1.1469 November 5 low.

Technical indicators reinforce the bearish outlook: the daily RSI is hovering around the 30-signal line, indicating oversold conditions but also strength in the bear run. Fourteen-day negative momentum also appears stretched but showing little sign of divergence.

Although the bias remains bearish, it is important to acknowledge that the risk of stronger rebounds is increasing, especially as the market approaches significant support levels. The market is likely to remain cautious, as oversold signals could trigger short-term corrections, but the broader trend still favours further downside scope unless a meaningful recovery materializes ahead of the weekend. Overall, the current environment calls for vigilance and flexibility, given the heightened volatility and shifting risk dynamics.
EUR/USD daily chart:


EUR/USD weekly chart:


EUR/USD Monthly Chart:


EUR/USD daily chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD falls to 0.7012 as oil prices rise 3% (AUD is risk-sensitive)

• 0.7012 is intra-day low. 0.7089 was Asia high, as Asian stocks surged

• European shares fall. U.S. stock futures are in negative territory

• 0.7000 and 0.6985 (Wednesday low) are AUD/USD support levels

• U.S. February Challenger layoffs data due at 1230 GMT

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable elicits support pre-1.3300 after extending south from 1.3386 (Asia high)

• 1.3308 = intra-day low at 0615 GMT. 1.3304 was low on Wednesday (in Asia)

• More bids likely near 1.3250 (1.3255 was three-month low on Tuesday)

• 1.3403 was Wednesday high, after USD softened on NYT report about Iran

• Asian shares surge; Kospi up 9.6%. 1.3440 is a resistance level beyond 1.3403

• 1.3440 was low last Friday (Feb 27), before the US-Israel war with Iran began

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD circa 1.18 before Iran conflict and around 1.16 after

• Pair bounced 1.1530-1.1655 then dipped to 1.1588

• Long liquidation drove a drop that became stretched hence bounce

• While number of longs reduced, highly likely traders still betting on a rise

• At the very least war has delayed prospect of sustainable rise over 1.20

• Remaining longs must decide whether to hold or to bank profits

• $23billion was staked on the euro rising, eventually those long must sell

•
EURUSD and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY rebounding after falling to 156.46 earlier, to 157.18 EBS

• Could be foreign investor hedging of fresh Nikkei buys

• Nikkei as high as 56,618 early, off then to 54,910 before bouncing again

• At @55,667 currently, it is up 2.6% on the day

• USD/JPY back in 157.07-54 hourly Ichimoku cloud for now

• That said, cloud tapering, base rising, to 157.34 into NY trading

• Re-break below still possible, 100-HMA 157.00 below cloud, 200-HMA 156.33

• Related , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


Nikkei 225 hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Thur, fails to extend its impressive post-Tue rebound in Asia

• Short term support likely to emerge near 0.7025 lower hourly Bollinger band

• AU balance of trade data reveals exports -0.9% m/m, imports +0.8% m/m in Jan

• U.S. trying to repress energy supply fears as Iran war escalation continues

• Oil & gas production curtailment underway amid looming storage limitations

• U.S. initial jobless claims due Thur (poll 215k), Feb non-farm payrolls Fri

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking in New York Fri

• Range Asia 0.7060-89, support 0.6900 0.6600 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD rises 0.1% in Asia as fears of a prolonged Iran conflict ease

• Risk sentiment improves, South Korea stocks up 11.80%, Nikkei +3.9%

• But markets on edge on inflation, growth concerns from effects of war

• UK economy forecast of just 1.1% in 2026 at risk from high energy prices

• EUR/GBP stabilises after hitting a 3-week low Wed, but upside limited

• GBP support 1.3340-50, 1.3300-10, resistance 1.3400-10, 1.3440-50

• Wednesday range 1.3304-1.3403; Asia range 1.3366-1.3386
The euro zone's policy rate is much lower than in the U.S. and UK:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Thur amid broadly improved risk sentiment

• AU Jan balance of trade +2.63 bln (poll +3.9 bln), exports down 0.9% m/m

• Oil production curtailment begins as storage limitations loom in Middle East

• U.S. attempting to allay fears around oil & gas supply as Iran war continues

• RBA deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking in New York Fri

• AUD running out of momentum near 0.7100, drift lower likely short term

• Range Asia 0.7074-855, support 0.6900 0.6600 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY 156.75-157.08 EBS so far in Asia, off from 157.95-97 double top

• Highs of 157.97 Tuesday, 157.95 February 9, 158.00 big figure resistance too

• New York sees push back down limited by concerns still over Iran conflict

• USD demand to continue on higher crude oil, other energy product prices

• Japanese importer buying at Tokyo fixes to continue too

• USD/JPY to base of tapering hourly Ichimoku cloud between 156.97-157.62

• 100-HMA also just below at 156.95, breaks below both just a matter of time?

• Clean breaks project tests towards ascending 100-HMA at 156.27

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials in widening mode though, USD supportive

• US yields up 3 straight sessions on Middle East-inspired inflation concerns

• In options, massive $1.3 bln 157.00-05 expiries today, gravitational pull?

• Just below between 156.80-95 $572 mln, 156.40-65 $709 mln, 158.00 $716 mln

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on Japan US investments

• US markets , , ,

• On Fed Beige Book/economy , ,

• And , Warsh , on US tariffs
USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD +1.7% from Tue 0.5837 low on broadly improved risk sentiment

• Series of 'lower highs' makes further topside extension difficult for pair

• Iran war expanding, U.S. attempting to ease concerns over oil & gas supply

• Storage capacity limitations begin to cause output cutbacks

• U.S. Feb private payrolls (+63k) & services PMI (56.1) beat expectations

• NZ's reliance on imported energy puts economy at mercy of oil price shock

• Range NZ 0.5926-42, support 0.5580, resistance 0.6012 0.6076 0.6092 0.6120
NZD Daily 200-DMA


NZD daily

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Danske Research discusses the scope for an inflation shock from the war in Iran.

"In our baseline, we do not foresee that the conflict in Middle East would trigger a new inflation shock.

In euro area, inflation has surprised to the upside lately, and due to higher energy prices in the short term, we have upgraded our inflation forecasts. Still, we see a high threshold for central banks to react to the recent rise in inflation expectations. We still expect the ECB to stay put until the end of 2027," Danske notes.

For the Fed, we pencil in rate cuts in June and in September. And while geopolitics will most likely dominate headlines in the coming weeks, note that the tariff debate might also return to the agenda at some point. It is possible that the US’ trading partners will seek better deals now that the legal base of Trump’s tariff policies has been questioned," Danske adds.

• AUD/USD +1.9% from Tue 0.69445 low as risk sentiment improves

• U.S. plays down concerns over oil & gas, but Iran war continues to expand

• Storage capacity limitations starting to trigger output curtailment

• U.S. Feb private payrolls (+63k) & services PMI (56.1) beat expectations

• AU Jan balance of trade due 0030 GMT, Reuters poll consensus 3.9 bln deficit

• AUD support/resistance widely separated, news & data driven short term

• Overnight range 0.69935-0.7083, support 0.6900 0.6600, resistance 0.7158
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR reprieve after Tuesday's flush, extends recovery from the 1.1530 swing low

• Calmer price action as risk assets recover but far from all-clear

• Terms of trade headwind will remain for EUR while oil and gas prices stay elevated

• Recent cleansing of positions should set up for more two-way flow

• Topside capped at the 200-day MA (1.1669) - first key hurdle for this rebound

• Initial support seen at 1.1572 and 1.1530
EURUSD hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Goldman Sachs Research revises its Oil targets higher.

"Brent has risen just above $80 as oil exports and production in the Middle East are significantly disrupted. We assume that Brent will trade in the $80s in March as the market processes mixed signals with some relief from a potential gradual recovery in Strait of Hormuz flows but also some renewed concerns as evidence of production cuts grows," GS notes.

"We are raising our 2026Q2 average oil price forecast for Brent by $10 to $76/bbl (vs. $66 prior) and by $9 for WTI to $71 (vs. $62)," GS adds.

• AUD (+0.5%) rebound limited to the 200-hour MAs (0.7070/79)

• Reprieve in risk assets underpin, but geopolitical noise remains

• After Tuesday's wash flush, AUD trades on a relatively calmer footing

• AU Q4 GDP (0.3ppt above RBA f/c) backs view of further tightening ahead

• Should keep AUD supported on the crosses (vs NZD in particular)

• Levels to watch - 0.7090-0.7114 (weekend gap). Support at 0.6945 (yday low) and 0.6900
AUDUSD hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))