• EUR/USD remains resilient despite latest Mid-East tensions, as traders focus on upcoming key drivers.

• Hedging activity linked to huge EUR 2.2 billion 1.1750 option strike helps contain ahead of its 10am New York expiry

• Market participants are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of US jobs data due at 12:30 GMT, helping to contain FX ahead

• Tame overnight volatility risk premiums suggest dealers are not bracing for a significant surprise in US jobs data

• Broader EUR/USD implied volatility continues to languish near pre Mid-East conflict lows - reflects calmer climes

• Risk reversals pare downside strike premiums and are now close to a neutral directional bias
EUR/USD FXO implied volatility


EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable holds below 1.36 after dropping through the level on Thursday

• Drop through 1.36 spurred by Iran-US clashes (dollar is safe-haven)

• 1.3633 was Thursday's high - before the flare-up in the Middle East

• There is a big 1.3600 option expiry for the 10am ET NY cut (1400 GMT)

• UK's Labour Party punished in local elections, raising pressure on PM Starmer

• US jobs data due at 1230 GMT; April NFP forecast at 62k. Jobless rate f/c 4.3%

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/14.00 GMT on Friday May 8

• EUR/USD: 1.1650 (1.2BLN), 1.1665/1.1670 (1.2BLN), 1.1680/1.1690 (2.0BLN)

• 1.1700 (1.5BLN), 1.1730 (232M), 1.1750 (2.2BLN), 1.1800 (1.6BLN), 1.1825/1.1830 (707M)

• USD/CHF: 0.7875 (241M), 0.7890 (450M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8650-65 (250M), 0.8750 (234M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3600 (1.2BLN), 1.3685-1.3700 (422M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7175 (386M), 0.7200 (828M), 0.7250 (229M), 0.7300-05 (631M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5935-40 (588M), 0.6000 (230M). AUD/NZD: 1.2125 (396M), 1.2250 (206M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3600 (841M), 1.3620/1.3625 (408M), 1.3665 (467M), 1.3700 (535M)

• USD/JPY: 155.00 (636M), 156.85 (200M), 157.00 (699M), 158.00 (607M), 158.50 (295M)

• FX options wrap - Hormuz hope, wobbly USD, elections and NFP (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Tanami Gold fall as much as 17.4% to A$0.076, biggest intraday pct drop since April 27, 2015

• Stock touches lowest point since December 23, 2025

• Gold explorer says it will raise up to A$70.5 million ($50.90 million) through entitlement offer

• Offer price of A$0.06/share marks a 34.8% discount to firm's last close on 27 April, before it went on a trading halt for the announcement

• Says funds raised to be used to meet project obligations, among others

• Stock down 16.1% so far this week, set for its worst week since mid-March

• Stock down 4.9%, YTD

($1 = $1.0000)

($1 = 1.3850 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• GBP/USD steady in Asia after closing -0.3% Thu as Iran peace hopes dissipate

• US and Iran exchange fire, but Trump says ceasefire still in effect

• WTI crude +0.7% Fri; had closed -0.3% after falling 5.5% in previous session

• Asia stock markets a sea of red as risk aversion grips pre weekend

• Early results for British local and regional elections start trickling in

• Results show Labour has lost in key areas following a surge for Reform UK

• GBP takes results in stride as poor Labour performance was expected

• BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speech, U.S. April jobs data awaited Friday

• Resistance 1.3600-05, 1.3630-40, support 1.3535-40, 1.3510-15

• Thursday range 1.3549-1.3633, Asia 1.35475-1.3560
Q1 GDP will show how the Iran war started impacting growth:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD flat wtd amid flailing efforts to deliver peace to the Middle East

• Trump says strikes on Iran retaliatory; Iran says U.S. violated ceasefire

• ECB's Schnabel sees potential for Jun rate hike if energy shock lingers

• EU Mar retail sales -0.1% m/m (poll -0.3%), +1.2% y/y (poll +1.0%)

• EUR sits clear of 1.1650 inflection zone, but needs fresh impetus to rally

• U.S. Apr non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +62k

• Range Asia 1.172225-3375, support 1.1650 1.1409, resistance 1.1850 1.1930
EUR Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD hovers near bottom of overnight range amid Iran ceasefire questions

• Brent crude +2.4% in Asia after U.S. and Iran exchange missiles

• Iran accuses U.S. of violating ceasefire, Trump says strikes retaliatory

• AUD losing touch with major 0.7283 inflection point for now, drifting lower

• Weighty U.S. Apr non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +62k

• AU Q1 wage price index due Wed, gives guidance on sticky services inflation

• Range Asia 0.7200-13, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7283 0.7661
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY cautious bid in Asia after closing 0.4% higher on Thursday

• Boosted by higher oil prices as Iran ceasefire optimism dissipates

• WTI crude up 2% in Asia, has gained nearly 10% from Thursday low

• US and Iran exchange fire, but Trump says ceasefire still in effect

• Japan may have spent $32 billion in additional yen-buying intervention

• Had spent $35 bln last week; 2.35% yen gain for $67 bln disappointing

• But appears to have halted the upside momentum of the USD for now

• Japan real wages climb for third month in Mar, backs case for BOJ rate hike

• Resistance 157.00, 157.20-25 , 157.70-80, support 156.50, 156.00-10

• Thursday range 156.02-156.97, Asia range 156.80-156.95
JPY:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD -0.8% from Thur 0.5983 high as U.S.-Iran ceasefire frays at seams

• NZD buyers likely to emerge ahead former 0.5930 major resistance zone

• Iran accuses U.S. of violating ceasefire, says ships and civilian areas hit

• Trump confirms strikes, says they were retaliatory & ceasefire is ongoing

• U.S. trade court rules against Trump's newest 10% global tariffs

• Pivotal U.S. Apr non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +62k

• Range NZ 0.59321-56, support 0.5680 0.5580, resistance 0.6090-95 0.6120
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.8% from Thur 0.7264 high Iran peace negotiations go off script

• Iran says U.S. has violated ceasefire targeting ships and civilian areas

• U.S. trade court rules against Trump's latest 10% global tariffs

• AUD backs off major 0.7283 resistance, needs momentum renewal to challenge

• Pair pushing lower hourly Bollinger band, looking oversold short term

• Important U.S. Apr non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +62k

• Overnight range 0.7202-64, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7283 0.7661
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Morgan Stanley Research previews the April US jobs report on Friday.

"Falling jobless claims signal even slower layoffs and a slightly faster reemployment rate at the start of April. We forecast payrolls rose 70k, with private payrolls rising 80k, about in line with the 1Q average pace," MS notes.

"That employment growth is close to our estimate of the payroll pace consistent with a flat unemployment rate, and the unemployment rate moves sideways, 4.3% but on the cusp of a 4.2%. We project average hourly earnings rise on trend 0.3% m/m. The y/y pace spikes, likely temporarily to 3.8% from 3.5% in March although it's still below the 3.9%y/y at the end of 2025," MS adds.

• GBP$ soft in NY afternoon, -0.14% at 1.3472; Thursday range 1.3633-1.3570

• Early risk bid fades amid less-optimistic Mideast peace comments

• Saudi Arabia, Kuwait have lifted restrictions on U.S. military use of their bases, airspace

• Oil reversed early gains, Brent had been as low as $96.03, trades $101.50 in NY afternoon

• Friday's US payroll data in focus for clues at employment/inflation/growth function

• GBP$ supt 1.3570 Thursday low, 1.3549 rising 10-DMA, 1.3514 daily cloud top

• Res 1.3643 Wednesday high, 1.3658 daily high May 1, 1.3713 upper 30-d Bolli

• Seems GBP$ bulls need more than whiff of peace to test the May 1 high at 1.3658 & above

Sterling Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1770 after EUR/UD rallied to 1.1778 in overnight trading

• The pair neared the overnight high in early action as risk sentiment was upbeat

• Risk shifted downward however; USD, US yields , oil firmed up

• USD/CNH rallied off its 6.7959 low while stocks turned down & gold eroded some gains

• EUR/USD fell to 1.1736 then bounced, it neared 1.1750 late, was near flat on the session

• A daily inverted hammer formed but EUR/USD remains above the 10- & 21-DMAs

• The May monthly doji candle could be a concern for EUR/USD bulls

• US April payroll report due Friday could impact risk sentiment
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7255, the pair neared 0.7260 as risk sentiment was up beat

• AUD/USD began sliding however as risk sentiment shifted downward

• USD, US yields <US2YT=RR, USD/CNH firmed up while oil

turned up

• Gold and silver eroded some gains & stocks traded lower to reinforce risk-off

• AUD/USD turned lower, hit 0.7225, the pair traded down -0.11% in NY's afternoon

• Falling daily RSI, daily inverted hammer might be concerns for bulls

• Rising monthly RSI, pair's hold above rising 10- & 21-DMAs gives bulls some comfort

• US April payroll report is a key risk for Friday
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research sees AUD/NZD a sell-on-rallies into year-end.

"We see the pair nearing its cycle peak, given our expectations of 75bp of RBNZ tightening this year (broadly in line with consensus), compared to no further rate hikes from the RBA," ANZ notes.

"This suggests there is significant scope for AU-NZ rate differentials to converge over the medium term. We therefore view further rallies in AUD/NZD as opportunities to enter fresh short positions and expect the pair to end the year at 1.17," ANZ adds.

Sterling appears positioned for a phase of cautious consolidation as markets weigh the tailwinds of de-escalating Middle East tensions against the looming uncertainty of domestic UK politics, inflation and growth.

The pound has made notable gains recently, approaching trend highs near 1.3650, buoyed by optimism surrounding a peaceful resolution in the Middle East.

This geopolitical development has reshaped the risk landscape, contributing to a decline in Brent crude prices below $100 per barrel, which in turn has diminished the recent safe-haven appeal of the U.S. dollar.

Retreating energy prices lower near-term UK inflation expectations allow markets to price in a less-hawkish Bank of England outlook. This eases 10-year gilt yields--which have fallen to 4.91% from over 5.12%--and, in turn, diminishes fiscal concerns related to UK borrowing costs. However, UK local elections present another potential headwind for sterling, particularly if they undermine Prime Minister Keir Starmer's hold on power and raise expectations of a more left-leaning and heavy-spending government.

Technically, cable finds support at today's low by 1.3590, followed by the rising 10-DMA at 1.3552 and the daily cloud top at 1.3514. However, upward momentum is capped near 1.3650, the May 1 and 6 high area.
GBP$ Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

RBC Research discusses USD/CAD outlook if a US-Ira deal were to be reached.

"Despite the USD unwinding most of its risk premium for the conflict, price action suggests markets still exhibit a bias to sell the USD. Thus, if a deal were to be reached, the knee-jerk reaction is likely to be a lower USD on ‘euphoria’ and thereby translate into a similar reaction in USD/CAD," RBC notes.

"But beyond this initial reaction, USD/CAD is not the best USD-pair to be chasing the downside momentum under a ‘deal’ scenario. If there is no longer an urgency for the BoC to shift to rate hikes and if a deal does not cause the Fed to shift more dovish from a ‘hold’ stance in the coming months, then the relatively wide US-CA rate differentials will act as a floor under USD/CAD once the initial optimism plays out,' RBC adds.

(change "an" spelling in line 1 ) USD/JPY may stay range-bound between 155 and 158 unless the BOJ turns more hawkish, oil prices ease, or an AI-fuelled equity rally cools as seasonal capital inflows fade in May. Although these forces currently argue for a weaker yen, gains are being capped by official yen buying whenever USD/JPY approaches the 158–160 intervention zone. Given the forcefulness of government messaging, this restraint is unlikely to fade soon. Japanese intervention followed a BOJ warning in its quarterly report that core inflation could run near 3% for a second year if oil prices remain elevated and the yen weakens. That caution came just days after the BOJ left policy unchanged despite an active debate over hiking rates, pushing JGB breakevens to record highs and reinforcing concerns that policy is behind the curve. With the MOF and BOJ committed to acting in concert, intervention will likely be driven by domestic policy objectives rather than IMF rules. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is expected to raise concerns over speculative yen selling with senior Japanese officials next week, though he is likely aware that ultra-loose BOJ policy and a worsening terms-of-trade backdrop, driven by the AI and defense build-out and the Iran conflict, remain the primary drags on the yen.

An easing in oil prices—potentially driven by a U.S.-Iran agreement on the Strait of Hormuz—could soften the expected 155-158 trading range as an improving terms of trade picture reduces the need for intervention, with a close below 155 opening up the year-to-date low of 152.10.
JGB BE


Yen


Yen metals


(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Citi Research previews the US April jobs report on Friday.

"Our US economists are forecasting a print well below consensus at -15k vs +65k, driven by ongoing volatility and immigration changes, resulting in a jump in unemployment from 4.3% to 4.4%. The overarching theme of this volatile data, like February's blowout report of +178k, is that Fed officials have begun to discount these readings," Citi notes.

"Against this backdrop, our economists continue to expect three 25bps cuts in September, October, and December, as the Fed prioritizes labor condition trends over headline volatility," Citi adds.

Goldman Sachs Research previews the US April jobs report on Friday.

"We forecast an above-consensus 75k increase in payrolls in April and a flat 4.3% unemployment rate. Big data indicators of job growth were solid, layoffs remained low, and job openings have held steady," GS notes.

"We forecast that average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in April, reflecting neutral calendar effects.  Our wage tracker currently stands at 3.6% year-over-year and 3.2% quarterly annualized in Q1," GS adds

• EUR/USD 0.18%, USD/JPY -0.0%, GBP/USD 0.25%, AUD/USD 0.32%

• S&P E-minis 0.08%, DAX -0.16%, Nikkei 225 5.58%, FTSE -0.75%

• Nothing moving EUR/USD which is stuck at centre of 2026 range

• It is Japan versus the USD/JPY chart

• GBP/USD rises to intra-day high as oil prices fall

• AUD/USD climbs to intra-day peak as oil falls below $100

• Option expiries . U.S. Open
(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/NZD has soared from 1.06 to 1.22 over the past year, one of the standout G10 movers

• Bulk of the move rate-driven, with AU-NZ yield spreads firmly in AUD's favour

• Iran war-driven oil spike added a secondary tailwind for the cross

• But with the RBA flagging a pause, the upside from rates looks increasingly priced

• Thus the rate differential trajectory from here will be the key swing factor

• U.S.-Iran deal chatter also building, if confirmed, this would be a net NZD positive

• Positioning is the big headwind - the market is long and crowded

• As such, there is a plenty of fuel for a sharp unwind

• Technically, 1.22 is proving a tough hurdle. 1.2050 (55DMA) is first meaningful support
AUDNZD vs DMAs


FX positioning by investor types


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• EUR/CHF rose 0.8981-0.9266 when FX reserve grew CHF 11 bln

• Reserves since falling CHF 5 bln and EUR/CHF down to 0.9146

• EUR/CHF has broken back below the 55-DMA at 0.9152

• The 21-DMA 0.9197 set to fall below 100-DMA 0.9190 - sell signal

• Boom for stocks may lessen demand for safe havens like CHF

• Less need for intervention may see EUR/CHF to fall further

• Market euphoria meets FX apathy; quiet spell may break soon

•
EURCHF


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/GBP holding firm above the 0.8600-15 support zone

• Iran deal optimism a net EUR positive, strips out some oil-driven headwind

• UK local election is the key GBP event - Labour wipeout is consensus, so limits shock value

• Eyes on Starmer exit odds as any material build in those and GBP sellers likely emerge

• If political noise escalates, 0.87 comes into play quickly, with 0.88 also on the radar

• For now, the cross is still in a range trade with extremes being faded
eurgbp daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))