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By eFXdata  —  Jan 24 - 09:30 AM

Citi discusses its expectations for this week's FOMC policy meeting.

"Markets are now pricing in the first rate hike with near certainty for the March meeting which is likely to be signaled by the Fed as our economists highlight, while liftoff in January can be ruled out. The case for beginning the tightening process is self-evident," Citi notes. 

"But we do not think the Fed needs to appear yet more hawkish for now. This is because: (i) implied asset volatility and credit spreads have increased, (ii) financial market conditions – while still accommodative – have begun to tighten as real yields rise and US inflation expectations appear well-behaved, (iii) markets are now pricing 1.5 Fed hikes cumulatively by the May FOMC. We still think yields will rise over time, but the balance of risks points, if anything, slightly to the downside for this meeting," Citi adds. 

Source:
Citi Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 24 - 08:57 AM

Nomura Research adopts a tactical neutral bias on the USD into this week's FOMC policy meeting. 

"We believe the market is already prepared for an outcome that supports a first rate hike of 25bp in March, likely Powell rhetoric that signals the path of tightening will continue, but does not need to be accelerated (currently just over 100bp or ~four hikes priced in for 2022), and QT details," Nomura notes. 

"The hurdle for a hawkish FOMC surprise is high. This highlights some near-term asymmetry around USD...In the G10, we are flat USD for now, waiting for better levels," Nomura adds. 

Source:
Nomura Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jan 24 - 07:25 AM
  • Risk-off reigns due to Ukraine tensions and the looming Fed meeting

  • Equities ESv1 copper HGv1, bond yields US10YT=RRDE10YT=RR fall

  • Safe-haven US$, yen are bought, AUD/JPY falls sharply and nears 81.00

  • AUD/USD breaks below the daily cloud base & January 7 daily low

  • Those breaks follow Friday's break of rising channel base on daily charts

  • Falling & not oversold daily & monthly RSIs imply downside momentum remains

  • Dec 20 daily low is key support ahead of the December monthly low at 0.6994

  • For more click on FXBUZ


audusd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jan 24 - 05:40 AM
  • Cable falls to 1.3497 (low since Jan 6) as European equity sell-off deepens

  • More: nL4N2U41WTnL1N2U40FF. GBP is risk-sensitive; USD is safer-haven

  • Worse than expected UK Jan service and mfg PMIs are also weighing on GBP

  • Service PMI 53.3 vs 54.8 f/c nL8N2U42A6. 1.3491 was GBP/USD low on Jan 6

  • Net GBP short position held by IMM speculators evaporates nL1N2U40C3

  • Assailed by scandal, UK PM Johnson fights for his job nL8N2U4142

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jan 24 - 05:20 AM
  • AUD/USD drops to 0.7142 as European equity sell-off deepens nL4N2U41WT

  • More: nL1N2U40FF. 0.7142 is low since Jan 7 (0.7130 was the low that day)

  • Lower copper and iron ore prices are also weighing on risk-sensitive AUD

  • See: nL1N2U40ABnL1N2U409I. 0.7187 was Asian session high nL1N2U403O

  • IMM speculators reduced gross AUD shorts and longs in week ended Jan 18

  • Steeper cut to shorts took net AUD short off all-time high nL1N2U12MZ

AUDUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Jan 24 - 03:45 AM
  • German manufacturing PMI soars to 60.5% in Jan from 57.4

  • Composite PMI flips from contraction at 49.9 to expansion at 54.3

  • Data should give a currently dovish ECB some cause for thought

  • EUR/USD traders are well prepared for a rise

  • Traders have flipped from shorts to longs since start Dec 2021

  • EUR/USD which initially rose has since fallen to neutral ground

  • PMI driven strength likely to attract profit taking nL1N2U40CV

EUR/USD GBP/USD and betting Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jan 24 - 02:55 AM
  • Cable hits 1.3534 (two-week low) after breaking below 1.3546 (Friday's low)

  • Weakness influenced by Friday's U.S. stock losses, when Nasdaq fell 2.7%

  • See: nL1N2U12RJ. GBP is risk-sensitive, while USD is a safer-haven

  • Net GBP short position held by IMM speculators evaporates nL1N2U40C3

  • UK Jan flash PMIs due 0930 GMT: service PMI f/c 54.8, mfg PMI f/c 57.9

  • UK PM Johnson orders inquiry over discrimination in party nL8N2U4142

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jan 24 - 02:25 AM
  • Market leaves last week's 1.3661 correction high behind

  • Bear trend resumption eyes a 38.2% Fibo at 1.3525: 1.3162-1.3749

  • Cloud top and cloud twist also in play, 1.3498 and 1.3444-1.3482

  • Daily cloud is thick and might stall fall but twist could have influence

  • Weeklies falling away from 50WMA, capped mkt at 1.3754 w/e Jan 14

  • Fading up-ticks favoured but we await more signals

    For more click on FXBUZ
















GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD daily candle chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Ewen Chew  —  Jan 24 - 02:00 AM
  • AUD/USD slips to 0.7160, potentially looking more bearish

  • If it ends below Ichimoku Cloud base 0.7167, longs may balk

  • That would augment Bollinger downtrend channel engaged Fri

  • Bearish technical cues may weigh it back to 0.7000 barrier

  • But there's chance for bounce as risk appetite recovers a tad

  • S&P futures +0.6%, China stocks rebound on new easing nAZN0231AK

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 23 - 10:30 PM
  • AUD/USD opened 0.7174 after falling 0.76% Friday when Wall Street slumped nL1N2U12RJ

  • The mood was a bit brighter in Asia as the E-minis rose 0.75%

  • AUD/JPY moved up around 0.35% to retrace some of the 1.0% drop on Friday

  • AUD/USD traded as high as 0.7187 and was around 0.7185 into the afternoon

  • Resistance is at former trend-line support at 0.7190 where sellers tipped

  • More resistance is at 0.7218 where the 10 & 21-day MAs converge

  • Support is at the 50% retracement of the 0.6994/0.7314 move at 0.7154

  • View Fed may tone down hawkish rhetoric at Wednesday's FOMC may calm markets

  • AUD/USD may see some volatility after tomorrow's Aus CPI

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 23 - 10:25 PM
  • EUR/USD opened 1.1350 after rising 0.27% on Friday when US yields eased nL1N2U1285

  • The opening price was the high and EUR/USD edged lower through the morning

  • Heading into the afternoon it is at the session low at 1.1332

  • EUR and JPY both eased in Asia as risk currencies had a modest rebound

  • EUR/USD support is at a trend-line at 1.1286 with bids ahead of 1.1300

  • Resistance is at 10-day MA @ 1.1375 and break would increase upward pressure

  • EUR/USD will likely consolidate ahead of FMC decision on Wednesday

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 23 - 09:20 PM
  • AUD/USD traded as high as 0.7187 on the back of AUD/JPY demand

  • AUD/JPY was over 0.35% higher at one stage as E-minis rose 0.75%

  • Risk assets recover slightly on expectations Fed may temper hawkish message

  • AUD/USD found sellers ahead of former trend-line support at 0.7190

  • More resistance is at 0.7215/20 where the 10 & 21-day MAs converge

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Jan 23 - 06:50 PM
  • GBP/USD on defensive after falling 0.3% Friday on rising risk aversion

  • Wall Street selloff weighs on sentiment; weak UK economic data undermines

  • UK shoppers slash December spending after earlier Xmas spree nL8N2U118R

  • Sales of GBP versus EUR further weigh as pound pulls back from 23-month high

  • Focus shifts to Fed rate decision Wednesday; traders brace for volatile week

  • Support 1.3525-30, 1.3495-1.3500, resistance 1.3600-05, 1.3625-30

  • For more click on FXBUZ


UK Inflation: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 23 - 06:05 PM
  • EUR/USD unchanged in early hours of trading after rising 0.27% Friday

  • EUR/USD was underpinned by falling US yields due to risk aversion nL1N2U1285

  • Resistance is at the 10-day MA at 1.1375 and break increases upward pressure

  • Support is at a rising trend-line at 1.1286 with bids ahead of 1.1300

  • Consolidation likely ahead of FOMC Wednesday when volatility should increase

  • Much depends on whether Fed tones down hawkish rhetoric due to market turmoil

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 23 - 04:50 PM
  • AUD/USD opens around Friday's 0.7172 close after falling 0.76% Friday

  • AUD/JPY fell 1.0% Friday, as Wall Street slumped again in risk-off trading nL1N2U12RJ

  • AUD/USD closed below trend-line that comes in at 0.7192 today

  • Mopre resistance at 0.7215/20 where 10 & 21-day MAs converge

  • Support is at the 50% of the 0.6994/0.7314 move at 0.7154

  • A break below 0.7150 targets 61.8 of that move at 0.7116

  • Potential volatile week ahead with FOMC and Aus CPI on tap

  • Key today will be AUD/JPY flows after the 1.0% drop on Friday

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jan 21 - 03:55 PM

Repeat with no changes

  • IMM spec USD long reduced by 1/3 in Jan 12-18 period; $IDX +0.12%

  • EUR specs +18,579 contracts now long 24,584; dip bought on 0.38% drop

  • $JPY -0.62% in period, specs +6,646 contracts now -80,879

  • GBP$ specs +28,919 contract now short 247 contracts amid 0.3% GBP dip

  • CAD pos flips to long specs +14,868; AUD specs +3,032 sht reduced to -88.4k

  • BTC held in tight 41-44k range specs sold 172 contracts now short 549

IMM Position Table: Click here

Majors w/IMM Perf Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Jan 21 - 02:55 PM

The dollar index fell on Friday as Treasury yields weakened on concerns that mounting losses in U.S. stocks, which breached key supports, could deter the Fed to from signaling more aggressive action to fight inflation following next week's meeting.

The dollar's losses came primarily against low-yielding, safe-haven currencies such as the euro, yen and Swiss franc while gaining against the high-beta or risk-sensitive aussie, sterling and kiwi.

Encapsulating Friday's migration out of risk and into safety, GBP/JPY fell 0.6%, with sterling also suffering in the wake of unexpectedly weak UK retail sales nL8N2U118R, which echoed similar shock from the U.S. nAPN0DT3Z2 a week earlier.

The recent data disappointments, combined with rising risk aversion, challenge the notion that Fed and BoE can subdue rampant inflation with a barrage of rate hikes without financial or economic consequences, even as the ECB nL8N2U01N7 and BOJ nL4N2U00CX refrain.

EUR/USD was up 0.3% on Friday but down 0.6% on the week.

The S&P 500 fell below its 200-day moving average in intraday trade, after the Nasdaq closed below its 200-DMA on Thursday, weighing on Treasury yields and presenting a potential a reprieve for EUR/USD longs nL1N2U11JE if sustained.

Sterling was down 0.25% but found support at the 100-DMA, likely aided by BoE policymaker Catherine Mann's defense of the BoE's tightening program nL8N2U13HF.

Sterling has been consolidating rapid gains that followed the BoE's first rate hike in December.
It peaked last week after becoming overbought and failing to overcome the 200-DMA.

Focus is now on the Jan.
26 Fed and Feb.
3 BoE meetings and recent risk aversion nL1N2U11CO.

USD/JPY was down 0.35% due to tumbling Treasury-JGB yields spreads and stock market angst favoring the haven yen.

Prices are probing Bolli band and cloud support, whose staying power looks tied to the rout in U.S. stocks abating.
An S&P 500 close below its 200-DMA would put USD/JPY's January lows by Fibo props in play nL1N2U11FA.

The Australian dollar was down 0.5% with its risk-proxy role hurting it amid the global slide in stocks.

Bitcoin and ether fell roughly 6% and 7.4%, respectively, with bitcoin now near the 50% Fibo of its incredible 3,122-69,000 2018-21 advance nL1N2U11P5.

Global PMIs for January are the main data focus before the Fed on Wednesday.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jan 21 - 01:50 PM
  • EUR/USD holds a tight range in Europe's am, NY opens near 1.1325

  • Pair rallies to 1.13595 on EBS in early trade on broad US$ weakness

  • Drop in US rates EDH2US10YT=RR help keep the dollar heavy

  • Yen bid sinks EUR/JPY toward 128.90, helps limit EUR/USD's upside

  • EUR/USD holds above the 55-DMA & is up near 0.30% late in the session

  • Risk aversion might be EUR/USD longs' best hope for Fed meeting nL1N2U11JE

  • For more click on FXBUZ














eurusd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jan 21 - 11:45 AM
  • USD/CAD back near NorAm open +0.2% at 1.2528; NorAm range 1.2554-15

  • Flurry higher amid equity/tech selloff short-lived

  • BoC seen hiking rates 25bp at Jan 26 meeting helps anchor CAD

  • Close abv 10-DMA 1.2540 adds to bullish case, next res dly cloud base 1.2612

  • Support near flat 200-DMA, Friday low around 1.2500, then up TL by 1.2467

  • BOCWATCH indicates a 83% chance of BoC rate hike Jan 26, as per CADOIS

CAD Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 21 - 10:44 AM

Credit Suisse discusses USD/JPY technical outlook and see a scope for a move towards 112.13 in the near-term.

"USDJPY back under pressure and below 113.99 can see a retest of the recent low and 38.2% retracement of the rally from September at 113.58/48. Below here can see weakness extend to test the December lows, seen starting at 113.15 and stretching down to 112.56/54, with a better floor looked for here," CS notes. 

"Should weakness extend, this would warn of further weakness to the potential uptrend from January 2021, currently seen at 112.13," CS adds.

Source:
Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jan 21 - 10:40 AM

GBP/USD limped toward the weekend, falling to a nine-session low of 1.3553 on Friday as unexpectedly weak UK retail sales nL8N2U118R encouraged position pruning before the Fed meeting next week, within the context of a BoE outlook that remains sterling supportive while cable remains above key 1.3463 support.

The tone for UK rate normalization remains upbeat in the run-up to the Feb 3 BoE meeting, with GBPOIS markets BOEWATCH projecting a UK hike next month and Sonia 3-month futures 0#son3: indicating a total increase of 100bps in 2022.

In the interim, the Fed policy statement on Jan.
26 -- coinciding with a Canadian rate announcement the same day -- could set the tone for markets before the MPC takes the spotlight on Feb.
3 as global policy makers address the post-pandemic inflation surge
.

The BoE's near-term rate path is expected to mirror the Fed's in 2022, with the UK's earlier liftoff providing an underlying bid for sterling.

Bouts of weakness, such as the slide cable began in mid-January, will focus on key support, currently at 1.3463, the 50% Fib of 1.3175-1.3749 range established after the BoE began hiking in December.

For more click on FXBUZ


GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 21 - 09:33 AM

Bank of America Global Research flags bullish USD signal from the latest readings of its quant models.

"The USD is becoming more bid in US and UK trading hours. The USD started 2022 on the back-foot with several USD uptrends reversing, captured by USD/G10 breadth falling from +7 to +2. The USD sell-off was led by supply during US trading hours and followed by Asia hours. To the contrary, UK-hours investors remained USD buyers so far in 2022," BofA notes. 

"With the US-hour USD supply flow appears to be reversing course at end of last week and all three time zones still cumulatively long USD over the past three months, we think there is still plenty of upside potential for the USD," BofA adds. 

Source:
BofA Global Research
By eFXdata  —  Jan 21 - 09:04 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses its expectations for next week's FOMC and BoC policy meetings.

"Ahead of next week’s Fed and BoC meetings, rate hike repricing has gone into overdrive with investors already expecting four rate hikes from the FOMC and more than five rate hikes from the BoC this year. In addition, markets see a c.70% chance of a 25bp BoC hike next week and even a 50bp Fed hike in March," CACIB notes. 

"There is a risk that neither the Fed nor the BoC will live up to the hawkish market expectations, in part given the pandemic’s recent impact on their economies. While the USD and CAD may cede some of their recent gains as a result, both should remain ‘buy on dips’, given both currencies’ rate advantage, the USD’s safe-haven appeal and the CAD’s link to energy prices," CACIB adds. 

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jan 21 - 07:25 AM
  • Equities ESv1, copper HGv1, AUD/JPY drop as investors seek safe assets

  • Interest rates EDH2US10YT=RR>AU3YT=RR sink due to risk-off sentiment

  • AUD/USD falls below the 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs; nears the rising channel base

  • Bull signals from Jan 20 are negated, bearish signals are in place again

  • Daily RSI turns down, monthly RSI diverged and is falling as well

  • Jan 18 daily low, daily cloud base are supports below the channel base

  • Break of the daily low, cloud likely to trigger stop loss selling

  • For more click on FXBUZ


audusd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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