• EUR reprieve after Tuesday's flush, extends recovery from the 1.1530 swing low

• Calmer price action as risk assets recover but far from all-clear

• Terms of trade headwind will remain for EUR while oil and gas prices stay elevated

• Recent cleansing of positions should set up for more two-way flow

• Topside capped at the 200-day MA (1.1669) - first key hurdle for this rebound

• Initial support seen at 1.1572 and 1.1530
EURUSD hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Goldman Sachs Research revises its Oil targets higher.

"Brent has risen just above $80 as oil exports and production in the Middle East are significantly disrupted. We assume that Brent will trade in the $80s in March as the market processes mixed signals with some relief from a potential gradual recovery in Strait of Hormuz flows but also some renewed concerns as evidence of production cuts grows," GS notes.

"We are raising our 2026Q2 average oil price forecast for Brent by $10 to $76/bbl (vs. $66 prior) and by $9 for WTI to $71 (vs. $62)," GS adds.

• AUD (+0.5%) rebound limited to the 200-hour MAs (0.7070/79)

• Reprieve in risk assets underpin, but geopolitical noise remains

• After Tuesday's wash flush, AUD trades on a relatively calmer footing

• AU Q4 GDP (0.3ppt above RBA f/c) backs view of further tightening ahead

• Should keep AUD supported on the crosses (vs NZD in particular)

• Levels to watch - 0.7090-0.7114 (weekend gap). Support at 0.6945 (yday low) and 0.6900
AUDUSD hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Morgan Stanley Research previews the US February jobs report on Friday.

"We forecast that headline and private payrolls rose 25k in February, held down by snow storms and a swing toward colder weather, as well as by a reversal in health services payrolls, where employment gains appeared exaggerated in January," MS notes.

"The unemployment rate moves sideways at 4.3%, just on the cusp of rounding to 4.2%. We expect average hourly earnings up 0.3%M and stalling at 3.7%Y," MS adds.

Sterling's path over the coming weeks will likely hinge on the Bank of England's ability to maintain a hawkish tilt amidst global geopolitical volatility and sticky domestic price pressures.

Wednesday trading by U.S. mid-morning has seen a slight retreat in the U.S. dollar, providing some much-needed breathing room for GBP/USD after recent selling pressure exacerbated owing to heightened Middle East tensions.

Technically, the pair is showing signs of stabilization. A series of long lower tails in recent pricing suggests that a base is being carved out near the bruised 1.3300 psychological level. Key support is currently bolstered by today’s low of 1.3304 and Tuesday's low at 1.3255. On the upside, the pair faces immediate resistance at 1.3400, the 100-day SMA—and Wednesday’s high of 1.3403. A break higher would target resistance at the 200-DMA by 1.3446 and then the 50-DMA at 1.3537. A rise above 1.3561, the 50% Fib of 1.3867-1.3255 will shift momentum from bears to GBP/USD bulls. Fundamentally, sterling's prospects are not as dour as the recent conflict-driven selloff might suggest. Persistent UK headline inflation at 3% and Governor Andrew Bailey’s recent comments regarding the slow decline of services inflation have tempered easing hopes. Market participants have significantly repriced the BoE path; UK STIR futures now discount only a 26% probability of a March rate cut, down from over 80% in late February. This shift toward a more neutral policy path is helping stem the tide of GBP selling. Furthermore, with net speculative short positioning remaining considerable, any stabilization could trigger a round of profit-taking among shorts.

Guidance from the March 19 BoE meeting will be critical in determining the future pace of cuts.
Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research discusses the USD outlook on the back of the war in Iran.

"We expect the USD rebound to prove short‑lived. Our latest forecasts are based on the assumption that Operation “Epic Fury” lasts weeks rather than months. If this proves correct, USD strength is likely to peak in the near term before reversing from Q2 onwards," MUFG notes.

"We do not expect the Fed to respond with rate hikes as it did in 2022, leaving the foundations for a sustained USD rebound in 2026 far less robust. Provided energy prices begin to ease, we still see scope for the Fed to cut rates in the second half of the year. Furthermore, recent developments at the start of this year have highlighted that US policy uncertainty is set to remain elevated and a headwind for USD performance," MUFG adds.

Bank of America Global Research discusses its Commodity Portfolio Strategy over a 1-month horizon.

"In relative terms over a one-month holding horizon, our models are overweight soybeans, soybean meal, lead, gold and silver. We are underweight natural gas, lean hogs, corn, wheat, cotton and copper," BofA notes.

"Over the next month, our model predicts positive roll yields for brent, heating oil, gasoil, copper. It predicts negative roll yields for gasoline, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, sugar, cotton, nickel and lead.

Over the next month, the model projects positive excess returns for gasoline, copper and nickel. It predicts negative excess returns for heating oil and gasoil," BofA adds.

• EUR/USD dropped 1.1796-1.1530 EBS after U.S. attacked Iran

• The drop erased remainder of this year's rise from 1.1572 to 1.2084

• While this seems significant it's not when viewed longer-term

• Between Feb 2025 and Jan 2026 EUR/USD rose 1.0125-1.2084

• A 23.6% correction of the uptrend is 1.1622, and 38.2% is 1.1336

• Specs held a massive $23 billion wager on a rise before the selloff

• FX traders seem to be ignoring the rules they usually follow

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of silver miners gain premarket, tracking higher prices of the metal [GOL/]

• Spot silver up 4.6% at $85.74/ounce, after falling more than 8% in the last session, as the U.S. dollar took a breather

• Hecla Mining up 4.2% and Coeur Mining rises 4.3%

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver , up ~4%, Silvercorp Metals up 3.8% and Wheaton Precious Metals up 4.2%

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust each up 4%
(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

• U.S.-listed shares of gold miners up premarket, tracking higher bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold up 1.9% at $5,182.44/ounce, rebounding from a more than one-week low hit in the previous session, as a widening Middle East conflict sent global markets tumbling and supported safe-haven demand

• Top miners Newmont gains 2.8% and Barrick Mining

up 2.1%

• South African miners Gold Fields , AngloGold Ashanti , Harmony Gold and Sibanye Stillwater

gain between 1.7% and 3.1%

• Canadian miners Agnico Eagle Mines up 3% and Kinross Gold gains 2.4%
(Reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru)

• Gold has been sold before and after the conflict in the Middle East

• Number of bullish wagers slashed from 251k contracts in Jan to 159k in March

• Gold which rose to $5418/oz on Monday dropped to $4995/oz on Tuesday

• Price action since Iran conflict suggest remaining longs booking profits

• Without the drag of bullish wagers gold is freer to rise

• Energy prices have soared and safer gold is considered an inflation hedge

•
Gold and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY has seen a 157.19-157.86 range, on Wednesday, according to EBS data

• Continued trading above the thin daily cloud, that currently spans 155.72-78, is bullish

• If there is a break above Tuesday's 157.97 high, that would unmask the 159.45 2026 peak

• While the yen remains under pressure, beware intervention risks lurk

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Big 1.0125-1.2084 rise followed by modest reverse to 1.1530

• Traders have pared longs - less drag on euro rising

• Likely that many longs were unwound for a profit

• Traders often return to profitable positions which will underpin euro

• Targets in wake correction: 1.1993, 1.2278 and 1.2510

• A longer US/Iran conflict could lead to a deeper EUR/USD retreat

•
EURUSD targets


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD dropped 1.1796-1.1530 EBS after US and Israel attacks on Iran

• Traders were long $23 billion of euros before the conflict

• Specs have pared exposure (prudent) and many bullish wages were profitable

• Retreat was steady, orderly and didn't go far - 23.6% uptrend is 1.1622

• A longer conflict could lead to a deeper retreat toward 1.1336 (38.2%)

• The limited FX reaction to war is a cause for concern

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Some USD/JPY flows on back of Japan FinMin Katayama, BOJ Ueda-speak in Diet

• Katayama reiterated watching markets closely, prepared to take steps

• Market seems to have been waiting for verbal intervention today to buy yen

• USD/JPY down to 157.19 on talk, high early Asia today 157.86 into Tokyo fix

• Some bounce later to 157.63 after Ueda-speak

• Ueda vowed to continue with hikes with eye on Middle East conflict

• Ueda also suggested further moves contingent on wage rises however

• Extent of Japanese wage rises later this month, ahead of April FY start

• USD/JPY support from ahead of 156.62-157.62 ascending hourly Ichi cloud now

• Upside likely capped at 157.95-97 double top yesterday, February 9

• See , , ,

• Related , comment on BOJ , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.3% Wed as risk appetite weakens across Asia's markets

• CN Feb manufacturing PMI data contradictory - RatingDog 52.1, NBS 49.0

• AU Q4 real GDP beats expectations, +2.6% y/y (Reuters poll consensus +2.2%)

• Confidence falls on Fed rate cut bets on oil related inflation concerns

• U.S.-Iran war continues, oil fades from highs but remains elevated

• AUD support/resistance widely separated, news & data driven short term

• Range Asia 0.6988-0.7046, support 0.6900 0.6600, resistance 0.7158
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD down 0.2% in risk-averse Asia as inflation fears take a toll

• Asian stock market slide extends; South Korea's KOSPI -8% in dash for cash

• Investors brace for energy shock, cash out on winning trades

• UK economy forecast to expand 1.1% in 2026, finance minister Reeves says

• New prediction weaker than an earlier forecast of 1.4% growth made in Nov

• ANALYSIS- UK budget outlook at risk from war in Middle East

• Support 1.3250-55, 1.3210-15, resistance 1.3360, 1.3390-1.3400

• Asia range 1.3304-1.3358
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD down -0.2% Wed as Iran war overshadows Q4 GDP beat

• AU Q4 real GDP +0.8% q/q, +2.6% y/y (poll +0.6%, +2.2% respectively)

• Conviction wanes on Fed rate cut bets on oil related inflation concerns

• U.S.-Iran war continues, oil fades from highs but remains elevated

• Trump says U.S. navy may escort oil & gas tankers through Strait of Hormuz

• AUD support/resistance far apart, will be news & data driven short term

• Range Asia 0.7030-46, support 0.6900 0.6600, resistance 0.7158
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Poor risk sentiment on Iran conflict, inflation risks keeping yen weak

• USD/JPY remains bid between 157.41-77 EBS after fresh 157.97 high yesterday

• Marginally above, 157.95 high February 9, 157.95-158.00 double top for now

• Stops eyed on break above 158.00, project test towards 159.23 peak Jan 23

• That said, risk of FX intervention seen increasing as spot nears 160

• Verbal intervention from Japan FinMin Katayama yesterday, more today?

• This will be important given PM Takaichi's concerns over more BOJ hikes

• BOJ too may be in quandary of sorts given effects on economy of Iran war

• But likely energy-led push higher in inflation added reason for April hike

• Weekly chart sees good support from area of Ichimoku tenkan at 155.77

• Better support at 152.47 weekly kijun, 100-WMA 151.34 below

• Massive $3 bln option expiries between 156.00-50 today, some 158.00-50

• Trend still down but JGB-US Treasury rate differentials see blips wider

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on Fed , ,

• US markets , , ,
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY weekly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Australian gold sub-index falls as much as 7%, hitting its lowest level since February 23

• Sub-index set for worst intraday trading session since February 2, extending losses for second straight session

• Bullion prices slipped 3.6% on Tuesday, weighed by a stronger dollar and dimming prospects for rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve [GOL/]

• Aussie gold miners Northern Star Resources and Evolution Mining both fall over 5%

• YTD, sub-index up ~11.3%, including the day's moves

(Reporting by Shivangi Lahiri in Bengaluru)

Danske Research discusses the shifting correlation between USD FX and risk sentiment.

Rising energy prices have unsurprisingly pushed EUR/USD lower after the US military intervention in Iran. This does not reflect a shift in the relative rates outlook, but rather the terms-of-trade effect as Europe remains dependent on imported oil and natural gas, both of which the US supplies for the global market. In our base case, we expect energy prices to eventually revert lower, but the path ahead remains far from certain," Danske notes.

"Importantly, as long as energy price volatility remains the main driver of cross-asset moves, the correlation between USD FX and risk sentiment will remain negative. This means that opening up USD exposure can help diversify a risk scenario, where a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz lifts energy prices significantly from current levels. This would constitute a negative supply shock for the global economy, which could weigh on both equity and bond markets in tandem," Danske adds.

• NZD/USD -1.1% from Tue 0.5954 high despite making decent partial recovery

• Pair breaks cleanly below 0.5930 resistance and breaches 0.5898 55-DMA

• News and data will drive NZD short term, but downside bias now in play

• DXY & UST yields firmer as inflation concerns dampen Fed rate cut hopes

• U.S.-Iran war continues, oil fades from highs but remains elevated

• Trump says U.S. navy may escort oil & gas tankers through Strait of Hormuz

• NZ's reliance on imported energy puts economy at mercy of oil price shock

• Range NZ 0.58775-0.59045, support 0.5730 0.5580, resistance 0.6120
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.6% late Tue after trading a 2.6% top-to-bottom range on the day

• U.S. navy may provide military protection to tankers in Strait of Hormuz

• De-escalation in U.S.-Iran war does not look likely short term

• DXY extends wtd gains by 0.6%, oil remains elevated, but well off its highs

• Fed rate cut bets faltering amid inflation fears, UST yields high firmer

• AUD to be news & data driven short term, support/resistance far apart

• AU Q4 real GDP due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.6% q/q, +2.2% y/y

• Overnight range 0.69445-0.70975, support 0.6900 0.6600, resistance 0.7158
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA


UK & U.S. Two-Year Bonds Yields

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD (-0.8%) resilience dissipates as legacy longs feel the squeeze

• Pair briefly took out 0.70 to hit session low of 0.6945

• Since recovered amid the stabilisation in risk assets

• Though the heavy tone should persist as geo tensions remain heightened

• Resistance at 0.7100-20 should cap topside in the short-run
AUDUSD daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))