• AUD/USD -0.7% from Thur 0.71465 high amid widespread de-leveraging

• Gold -2.4%, silver -8.8%%, copper -2.4%, BTC -2.8%, Nasdaq -1.5%

• AUD near lower hourly Bollinger band, overnight weakness looks temporary

• Hawkish RBA tone & positive carry will sustain AUD rally medium term

• U.S. initial jobless claims 227k (poll +222k), CPI due Fri (poll 2.5% y/y)

• RBA Feb monetary policy meeting minutes released Tue 0030 GMT

• Overnight range 0.7076-0.71445, support 0.6900 0.6660, resistance 0.7158
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Credit Agricole CIB Research previews next week's January policy meeting.

"The RBNZ is expected to stay on hold next week. There continue to be signs of a burgeoning economic recovery. Real GDP bounced by 1.1% QoQ in Q3, nearly triple the RBNZ’s expectations. Inflation remains above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target range and at 3.1% YoY, slightly above the central bank’s forecast. Forward-looking indicators point to a further strong rebound in the economy. But the unemployment rate remains elevated at 5.4% and a little above the RBNZ’s forecasts," CACIB notes. 

"The focus will be on the central bank’s MPS as its outlook for the OCR. With the RBNZ currently forecasting only a small chance of a rate hike by end-2026, there is a risk that it is brought forward, especially if inflation expectations start heading significantly higher," CACIB adds

• Ether rallied toward 2000.00 ealrier in the session, sellers emerged, it turned lower

• Soured risk helped the pair fall to a six-session low of 1897.75

• Drops in gold , silver , stocks & US$ gains weighed on Ether

• Bitcoin's drops of over 2.2% also helped tow eigh down Ether

• Ether is hovering just above the 10-month low which was struck on February 6

• Techs are bearish; 10-DMA exerts bearish pressure, daily & monthly RSIs are falling

• Ether bears may have the 2025 yearly low at 1387.02 in their sights
eth


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research presents its updated G10 FX valuation metrics.

According to the updated metrics, CHF & USD remain most overvalued in TWI terms, while JPY & NOK are the most undervalued.

• Recent events have led to impression US and Japan may cap USD/JPY

• Even so the yen can still fall and is perhaps more likely to do so

• A cap for USD/JPY is likely to encourage traders to sell USD

• USD could fall substantially versus currencies comprising carry trades

• USD/JPY downside likely limited until monetary pol changes more radically

• Current policy sufficient to drive the yen close to record low in January

• Since Jan 2025 trade weighted yen down 3.5%, JPY +2.6% vs USD

• Japanese assets purchased without an FX hedge are a very risky venture

•
Then yen on trade weighted basis compared USD/JPY


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan adopts a neutral bias and a flat position on EUR/USD in the near-term.

"The euro reacted more than most to the US data, think people are still overall not comfortable chasing an overly positive European narrative at high levels still and eurjpy breaking some key support levels keeping the single currency confined. The excitement around rebalancing doesn't seem to be percolating through as actively with flows focused elsewhere in the currency space and if anything felt yesterday like discretionary once again piling into shorts on the crosses to protect dollar shorts elsewhere," JPM notes.

"So flat for now, the dollar in general still feels heavy so wouldn't dismiss a move back higher but my main focus is elsewhere right now, short term break above 1.1930 (capped the last few sessions) would encourage those looking for another test above 1.20," JPM adds.

Morgan Stanley Research previews the US January CPI report on Friday.

"We expect a January acceleration in core CPI to 0.36%M (versus 0.24%M in December, 2.6%Y). Tariffs amplify the usual start of year price resets, and shutdown noise adds a modest upward bias. Headline 0.26%M, 2.5%Y, NSA Index: 325.554. Stronger residual seasonality due to tariffs likely adds ~5bp to core, even with a possible partial correction in CPI seasonal factors," MS notes.

"Payback from shutdown-related weakness likely contributes +2bp. Additional strength in airfares and vehicle prices - categories less affected by seasonality - further explains why we expect January to print above the underlying trend (~0.25%M for core)," MS adds.

• AUD/USD rallied to 0.7147 in Asia then hit 0.7105 in Europe's morning

• NY opened near 0.7130, the pair traded up only +0.04% in early action

• Lower US yields , USD/CNH drop helped limit the downside

• Drops in gold , silver , iron-ore helped to cap the topside

• Daily doji & daily RSI not confirming the fresh 3-year high, could be bearish

• Rising monthly RSI, February's monthly bull hammer give longs some comfort

• Investors await US weekly claims data & Jan. CPI report due Friday
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Fate of the most influential FX trend is in the balance

• EUR/USD 21-MMA at 1.1190 is climbing toward the 100-MMA at 1.1237

• It's typically bullish when a shorter-term moving average rises above a longer-term one

• Only other time this signal appeared was in Nov 2021, and EUR/USD subsequently fell

• Then, as now, traders were betting on a rise

• The current net euro-long position is among the largest on record

• The 200-MMA at 1.1939 has never been exceeded on a monthly closing basis

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Feb 12 (Reuters) - USD/JPY looks set to slump to probe a major technical level in the days and weeks ahead as the Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is unlikely to toy with the risks of a weak yen.

The PM's landslide election win has given fresh impetus to her economic stimulus agenda but the risk that fresh yen selling could fire up imported inflation, reviving political headaches, is now one of the few barriers to her administration getting in the way of BOJ rate hikes.

A bearish engulfing pattern recently formed on the USD/JPY chart. The pattern formed through a large black candlestick on Monday which completely engulfed Friday's smaller white candle, meaning Monday's price opened higher than Friday's high but fell dramatically due to intense selling pressure, closing below Friday's low.

That increases the likelihood that there will be a bigger drop through the 2026 152.10 low, which in turn would unmask the 150.83 Fibo: a 61.8% retrace of the 145.50-159.45 (September to January) EBS rise.

The 30- and 60-day log correlation coefficients between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are both above +0.50, meaning the two currency pairs will likely weaken in tandem.
Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Feb 12 (Reuters) - Doves advocating an interest rate cut from the Bank of England in March are cooing following Thursday's disclosure that Britain's economy barely grew in the fourth quarter of 2025. The 0.1% increase in UK gross domestic product in Q4 was lower than the 0.2% consensus forecast from economists polled by Reuters, and matches the same slow pace of GDP growth in the third quarter. Next week's UK inflation data for January should add to the case for a BoE rate reduction next month if it shows CPI falling from its 3.4% YY level in December.

Markets currently see a 63% chance of the BoE cutting rates by 25 basis points to 3.5% on March 19. GBP/USD dipped to a three-day low 5.5 pips shy of 1.3600 shortly before Thursday's UK GDP data release, before rising to an intra-day high of 1.3652 on news that U.S. asset manager Nuveen is to buy British money manager Schroders for 9.9 billion pounds.

Related:
GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• 'Buy Japan' talk boosts yen towards best week in a year

• Fiscal bets amplify a USD/JPY bearish engulfing pattern

• Japan's emboldened PM won't toy with risks of a weak yen

• USD/JPY has traded lower on Thursday, it has seen a 152.28-153.55 EBS range

• A large black candle on Monday completely engulfed a smaller white candle from Friday

• Top currency diplomat: Japan not lowering guard against FX volatility

• Direct intervention would likely see USD/JPY fill a gap under 150 that opened up in October

•
Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable rises to 1.3635 as the pound benefits from M&A news

• U.S. asset manager Nuveen agrees to buy Schroders for 9.9 billion pounds

• 1.3606 was three-day low in Asia, shortly before UK GDP data

• UK economy grew by 0.1% in Q4 vs 0.2% expected

• Wednesday low was 1.3610, after USD jumped on January NFP beat

• 1.3711 was one-week high on Wednesday, before the U.S. jobs data

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/CNY remains soggy, last 6.9028 after hitting 6.8998 low

• New 2-1/2 year low notched on the heels of USD/JPY tumbling again

• Higher PBOC fix, with more positive damping, was shrugged off

• Spikes toward 6.9255 top of Bollinger downtrend channel will be sold

• But shorts may be wary of tentative USD/JPY bounce above 153

• More jawboning from Japan officials may be deterring yen bulls
CNY


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Thur as RBA officials continue to purvey hawkish tone

• RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaking in Perth later Thur

• Michele Bullock earlier noted inflation at 3-point something unacceptable

• Widening yield spreads in favour of AU underwriting AUD/USD rally

• Pair pushing upper hourly Bollinger band, rally will intensify above 0.7158

• U.S. initial jobless claims due Thur (poll +222k) & CPI Fri (poll 2.5% y/y)

• Range Asia 0.71195-465, support 0.6900 0.6660, resistance 0.7158
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD inches up to 1.3643 in Asia from intraday low 1.3616

• Bounces before 21 DMA support 1.3610 - a key technical ledge

• But upside might be limited on signs of bullish exhaustion

• Wednesday's failed rally formed a long-tailed doji candlestick

• Appears unlikely to return to Bollinger uptrend channel 1.3750

• But USD tentatively undermined as USD/JPY continues lower
GBP


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Thur, approaching Feb 2, 2023 0.7158 high post-RBA comments

• Governor Bullock says RBA saw inflation at 3-point something unacceptable

• RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaking in Perth later Thur

• Revisions show U.S. economy added 181k jobs in 2025 (prior estimate +584K)

• U.S. initial jobless claims due Thur (poll +222k) & CPI Fri (poll 2.5% y/y)

• Range Asia 0.71245-355, support 0.6900 0.6660, resistance 0.7158
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/KRW pressured, but USD/JPY stalling may slow descent

• Last 1448.6, a tad higher vs Wed close 1447.0 as KOSPI +2.0%

• Under Ichimoku cloud, heading for Bollinger downtrend channel 1442.8

• USD/JPY stalling on official jawboning slows USD/KRW descent

• Japan's top FX diplomat says closely watching JPY

• Recent sustained yen appreciation may be seen as too rapid
KRW


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY off to as low as 152.55 overnight, some bounce but bias still down

• Asia 153.08-44 EBS so far, tad bid on Japanese importer Tokyo fix demand

• Question is what transpires following the Tokyo fix

• Resistance from 153.60 flat hourly Ichimoku kijun

• Descending hourly Ichimoku cloud 154.80-155.90 above

• Support at overnight low, 152.00-10, 152.10 spike low on January 27

• Nikkei buoyant again and up after TSE open, unfazed by yen strength

• In fact, Nikkei buoyed by stronger yen, on foreign non-hedged purchases?

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials back to narrowing mode, in 2s @217 bps

• On options front, only large expiries today between 152.95-153.01, at 154.00

• Fed rate cut expectations look to have dissipated however after US jobs data

• Chances of a rate cut in June down to 59.8% from 75.2% Tuesday

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Fed/Fed-speak , , ,

• On US data , ,
USD/JPY:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:


Nikkei 225:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses the scope for Switzerland to adopt a Singapore-style FX regime.

"Trade openness tends to correlate with managed FX systems, and both Singapore and Denmark provide examples of how FX-centred frameworks deliver price stability in very open economies. Among the two, Singapore's basket-band-crawl approach could possibly offer the most appealing features for the SNB, especially under persistent safe-haven pressures,:" BofA notes.

"Still, adopting a Singapore-style system would require navigating Swiss-specific challenges, including differences in inflation-basket composition and the rather unique safe-haven characteristics of the CHF," BofA adds.

• AUD/USD +0.75% late Wed after big downwards revisions overshadow NFP beat

• Revisions showed U.S. economy added 181k jobs in 2025 (prior estimate +584K)

• U.S. Jan non-farm payrolls +130k (poll +70k), unemployment 4.3% (poll 4.4%)

• RBA Governor Bullock appearing before Senate Economics Committee Thur

• Expect more hawkish comments from RBA to drive AUD above 0.7158 resistance

• U.S. initial jobless claims due Thur (poll +222k) & CPI Fri (poll 2.5% y/y)

• Overnight range 0.7074-0.7143, support 0.6900 0.6660, resistance 0.7158
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

(Changes UK GDP to Dec. in bullet 4)

• GBP$ whipsaws in Wednesday trade, +0.2% at 1.3654 in NY; NorAm range 1.3692-1.3610

• UK political angst ebbing helps support the pound amid lower BoE rate expectations

• Despite the slight rise, the USD is broadly bid after US payroll data beat to the upside

• Thursday's UK Dec and Q4 GDP, Friday's US CPI data in focus to inform on policy

• GBP$ res 1.3712 Wednesday high, 1.3733 Feb 4 daily high, 1.3831 upper 30-w Bolli

• Supt 1.3610 Wednesday low, 1.3594 daily base line, 1.3509 Feb 6 daily low

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research discusses EUR/CHF outlook.

"We expect EUR/CHF to drift lower as purchasing power parity dynamics continue to favor CHF appreciation. While CHF has risen strongly in nominal terms, it has been broadly stable in real terms since 2012, reflecting much lower Swiss inflation relative to the euro area. The SNB's intervention history suggests it responds to inflation risks rather than defending specific exchange rate levels," MS notes.

"Unlike 2020 (when core inflation was negative and EUR/CHF was cheap) today CHF appreciation is consistent with price stability, and EUR/CHF is rich versus PPP. As a result, intervention risks appear low and skewed toward volatility smoothing. Relative safe-haven demand may further support CHF," MS adds.

• under pressure into Europe close, -3.6% at 66.1k; Wednesday range 69.3k-65.7k

• Above f/c US payroll data keeps Fed on steady tack for 2-25bp cuts in 2026

• Cryptos crumble, bitcoin falls through $66,000, as Friday's bounce fades- CoinDesk

• Precious metals retain bid; gold +1%, silver +4% amid fiscal, geopolitical angst

• BTC supt 65.7k Wednesday low, 62.6k falling lower 30-d Bolli, 60k - 2026 low, Feb 6

• Res 69.3k Wednesday high, 70.6k falling 10-DMA, 72.2k daily high Feb 9
BTC Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)