• AUD/USD fell below the daily cloud top, 55-, 21- & 10-DMAs earlier due to risk-off

• A three-session low was struck but buyers emerged as risk sentiment improved

• US yields , US$ turned lower as safe-haven bids faded away

• Stocks turned up, USD/CNH turned down, gold & silver eroded most of their losses

• AUD/USD rallied above the cloud top, 10-, 21- & 55-DMA and turned positive

• 0.7079 traded in NY's afternoon; pair's rally has techs flashing bullish signals now

• Daily RSI turned upward, a large daily bull hammer candle formed, monthly RSI rising

• Bull hammer formed after 10- & 21-DMAs pierced, gives the hammer more credence

• 0.7095-0.7125 area is resistance, if cleared the March monthly high comes into focus
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research sees a scope for downside GBP/USD expressions over the coming 2 months.

"Overlaying more UK-specific considerations with the global backdrop of the evolving energy shock, we think the clearest alignment is in using Sterling downside as a re-escalation hedge-but now best suited to tactical GBP/USD downside rather than tactical EUR/GBP upside. Meanwhile, a more concerted shift towards de-escalation should drive Sterling strength from here, helped in particular by its high-beta characteristics," GS notes.

"But with GBP/USD already having rebounded close to pre-shock levels, and with UK-specific factors leaning toward Sterling underperformance in our view, we think downside GBP/USD expressions over the coming two months offer the greater asymmetry," GS adds.

Sterling is poised for a period of heightened volatility as traders weigh significant geopolitical risks against a heavily short-positioned market that could be ripe for a squeeze.

The dollar has caught a fresh bid today following the announced U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a move that sent oil prices surging and bolstered the greenback while leaving traditional safe havens like the yen, Swiss franc and gold relatively weaker. Despite this current pressure, the pound had recently trended higher on the back of previously upbeat Middle East negotiations.

Crucially, sterling net speculative IMM positioning has remained remarkably steady over the last few weeks at around -55,000 contracts. Given the sheer size of this net short position, any positive turn in reports regarding Middle East tensions and an ensuing risk rally is likely to lift GBP/USD, putting late-February highs near 1.36 back into focus.

However, sterling bulls would still have to contend with lingering UK fiscal concerns, which remain a persistent headwind as the domestic inflation and growth outlook remains notably challenging.

Technically, the pair is currently battling resistance at the falling daily cloud base at 1.3454. A sustained move into the daily cloud, spanning 1.3454-1.3561, would open the door toward the upper Bollinger Band at 1.3509 and the daily cloud top. Conversely, initial support sits at the 200-day moving average of 1.3414, followed by today's Hormuz-related blockade flash low at 1.3383. Failure to hold this level may lead to a test of the 21- and 10-DMAs just ahead of 1.33, marking a shift in the near-term bias.
Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research highlights the key findings from its latest FX and Rates Sentiment Survey.

"Respondents aggressively covered USD shorts on the outbreak of the war in Iran. Since the last survey, positions and views are broadly unchanged. This reflects that investors view the Iran war as more of a level shift to the USD path for 2026 than a change in the trend," BofA notes.

"Continued USD bearishness is driven by growth concerns dominating inflation worries. And for example, investors remain convinced that the Fed will err on the dovish side," BofA adds.

MUFG Research discusses EUR/USD outlook in light of high oil prices.

"After of six weeks of conflict to the point of the ceasefire, it is clear that the US dollar has underperformed our expectations based on our original expected moves. Based on a 40%ish move higher in crude oil prices we would have expected to see a EUR/USD drop of 3% or so. The EUR/USD rate is currently 1.0% lower. The change in swap spreads against the dollar and the lack of risk-off trading conditions have helped contribute to that," MUFG notes.

"Under our new Scenario 1 of crude remaining around current levels before slowly retracing from Q3 onwards, we would expect to see EUR/USD trade around current levels to lower before moving higher in the second half of the year," MUFG adds.

• AUD/USD fell below the 21-DMA overnight on report of US Navy blockade

• The pair hit 0.6979 as risk soured with help from oil

spiking higher

• Risk improved however; US yields , US$ softened, USD/CNH neared flat

• Gold , silver , equities erased a portion of overnight losses

• AUD/USD rallied above the 21- & 55-DMAs and daily cloud top, hit 0.7058 in Europe

• NY opened near 0.7050, the pair traded down only -0.24% in early action

• A daily bull hammer candle formed which is likely a concern for AUD/USD bears
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of silver miners fall premarket, tracking a decline in prices of the metal [GOL/]

A** Spot silver down 2% at $74.36 per ounce, as renewed fears of a wider Middle East conflict spurred by failed U.S.-Iran talks boosted oil prices, fueled inflation concerns and reduced expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts this year

• Hecla Mining drops 2%, Coeur Mining falls 2.6%

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver and Silvercorp Metals fall 2.3% and 4.1%, respectively

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust ETF each dip 2.6%

(Reporting by Pranav Mathur in Bengaluru)

• U.S.-listed shares of gold miners down premarket, tracking lower bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold down 0.6% at $4,719.54/ounce

• Bullion prices decline as renewed fears of a wider Middle East conflict spurred by failed U.S.-Iran talks boosted oil prices, fueled inflation concerns and reduced expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts this year

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining fall 2% and 1.7% respectively

• South African miners: Gold Fields , AngloGold Ashanti both down 1.4% and Harmony Gold inches down ~2%

• Canadian miners: Agnico Eagle Mines dips 1.2% and Kinross Gold slips 1.6%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY nears 160. Hits high of 159.85 as oil breaks above $100/bbl

• U.S. to impose a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz after weekend talks failed

• Geo risk premium creeps in but moves stay contained - ceasefire holds for now

• Topside conviction limited with lack of appeal to chase through 160

• Key resistance stands at 160 (weekly high)/160.47 (Mar high)

• Support seen at 158, stronger cushion down at 156.89/157.11 (100/55DMAs)
USDJPY daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• AUD/USD hits 0.7058 (intra-day high) after extending north from 0.6979

• 0.6979 was Asia low, after safe-haven USD strengthened on Middle East news

• U.S. to blockade Iran ports after weekend talks failed to yield a deal

• 0.6979 was the lowest level since April 8 (0.6969 was the low that day)

• Offers expected pre-0.71 (0.7092 was Friday high; 0.7094 was Thursday high)

• CFTC data showed net AUD long fell 13% to 70,813 contracts in week to April 7

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable slid to threaten 1.3383 in Asia as safe-haven USD rose on Middle East news

• U.S. to blockade Iran ports after weekend talks failed to yield a deal; oil above $100

• 1.3383 was Thursday's low (1.3382 was Wednesday's NY session low)

• The high water-mark since the Asian session drop to threaten 1.3383 is 1.3415

• Friday's high was 1.3478 (after dollar fell on cooler than expected U.S. CPI data)

• CFTC data showed net GBP short rose 7% to 56,354 contracts in week to April 7

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's St. Barbara fall as much as 6.9% to A$0.68, on track for their worst session since March 23

• Gold miner posts Simberi's third-quarter gold production of 13,522 ounces vs 14,053 ounces reported a year ago

• Anticipates Q4 gold production for the New Semberi Gold Project of 14,000-17,000 ounces, compared to 14,620 ounces a year earlier

• Stock up 20.7% YTD, including the session's moves

(Reporting by Anjali Singh in Bengaluru)

• GBP/USD -0.4% Mon as markets calibrate weekend U.S.-Iran developments

• GBP failure to hold above 1.3460 55-DMA will invigorate sellers

• Iran war re-escalation becomes genuine threat after peace talks fail

• WTI +8.5%, Brent crude +7.3% after Trump announces Strait of Hormuz blockade

• UK Feb GDP, industrial output, trade balance updates all due Thur

• Range Asia 1.33835-1.3442, support 1.3160 1.3040, resistance 1.3867 1.4250
GBP Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.4% Mon but recovering from a steeper post-open rout

• Fear of Iran war re-escalation hits risk appetite after peace talks fail

• U.S. Strait of Hormuz blockade sends energy prices higher, WTI +8.1%

• AUD recovery likely to run out of momentum near Mon 0.7040 open

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking in New York Mon evening

• Range Asia 0.6979-0.7040, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7188 0.7282
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Middle East war concerns with US-Iran talks seen at impasse

• US threatens to blockage Hormuz Strait, talks to continue in Islamabad?

• Ceasefire looks to be holding for now but to last the 2 weeks eyed?

• USD bid across the board, USD/JPY 159.35-85 EBS so far in Asia

• Some switch in market focus to central bank announcements

• Japan TradeMin Akazawa hints BOJ policy option to raise yen, tame inflation

• Boost to expectations for BOJ to up rates at end-April meeting?

• Fed on other hand looks to remain pat for now, inflation and growth concerns

• JGB-US Treasury rate diffs narrower, in 2s @, 10s @238 bps, 10s @186 bps

• Threat of Japan FX intervention higher too, 160.00 area still line in sand

• USD/JPY support on dips towards 159.00, Japanese importer, other bids eyed

• Large nearby option expiries today between 159.50-55 $1 bln, 160.00 $761 mln

• Related comments , , ,

• And , also , on Iran war ,

• US markets , , ,

• On Akazawa-speak/BOJ ,

• On US data , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


JGB-US Treasury interest rate differential:


NYMEX crude oil futures:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD -0.6% Mon in wake of weekend U.S.-Iran peace talk stalemate

• Oil prices surge (WTI +8.8%) after U.S. announces Strait of Hormuz blockade

• Broad USD index up 0.5% on safe haven inflow, risk sentiment dives

• GBP fails to hold above 1.3460 55-DMA, downside momentum gathering pace

• U.S. Mar core CPI +0.2% m/m, +2.6% y/y (poll +0.3%, +2.7% respectively)

• UK Feb GDP, industrial output, trade balance updates all due Apr 16

• Range Asia 1.33835-1.3442, support 1.3160 1.3040, resistance 1.3867 1.4250
GBP Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD -0.7% Mon after failure of U.S.-Iran weekend peace talks

• Trump says will blockade the Strait of Hormuz, stokes energy crisis

• More hawkish sounding RBNZ comments that lifted NZD fading in relevance

• Pair fails to hold above 0.5847 200-DMA, possible resumption of downtrend

• NZ Mar electronic card retail sales due Fri, prior +1.4% m/m, +1.5% y/y

• Range NZ 0.5790-0.5830, support 0.5680 0.5580, resistance 0.5918 0.6092
NZD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -1.3% in early trade Mon as U.S.-Iran fail to reach peace agreement

• Trump vows to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, refreshes oil price pressure

• AUD pushing hourly lower Bollinger band, oversold but remains news driven

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking in New York Mon evening

• U.S. Mar core CPI +0.2% m/m, +2.6% y/y (poll +0.3%, +2.7% respectively)

• Range Asia 0.6980-0.7040, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7188 0.7282
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR net spec position shifts to short of 7,541 contracts as of Tuesday from long of 507 contracts last week

• JPY net spec short grows to 93,742 contracts vs previous week's short of 72,872

• GBP net spec short edges up to 56,354 from short of 52,665

• AUD long shrinks to 70,813 from long of 81,506

• MXN long 57,471 vs long of 57,684

• CHF short 30,694 vs short of 29,871

• NZD short 36,075 vs short of 28,588

• CAD short jumps to 55,648 from short of 32,684

EUR spec IMM


(Burton Frierson)

The euro notched a fifth straight gain, supported by relatively buoyant risk sentiment in Europe ahead of weekend U.S.-Iran talks, ECB hike expectations, and broader de-dollarization themes. WTI oil swung in a narrow range for most of the session amid posturing between negotiating parties. Iranian officials said its assets must be unfrozen and a ceasefire established in Lebanon before U.S. talks can proceed. U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran should not charge tolls on ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz. The risk mood waned later after he posted on social media that Iranians have “no cards” and that "the only reason they are alive today is to negotiate." He also told the New York Post that U.S. warships are being reloaded and will resume strikes on Iran if peace talks in Pakistan fail. Pakistan's prime minister said U.S.–Iran talks are make-or-break for a permanent ceasefire. The dollar dipped initially after an in-line U.S. CPI and a record-low Michigan sentiment reading, testing its weekly low near the 200-DMA, before paring losses as risk sentiment soured.

FX turnover was mixed ahead of the weekend talks, with implied vols generally marked lower. Scandies and Antipodeans pulled back following solid weekly gains. EUR/USD touched a 1½-month high near 1.1740 before easing, initially supported by tighter U.S.–German spreads and firmer equities, while the pair’s hold above key moving averages and rising RSIs keeps the bias bullish. Euro sentiment was initially buoyed by a few tankers going through Strait of Hormuz and a Bloomberg report about Ukraine and Russia potentially moving toward a deal. GBP/USD posted its best week since the Iran conflict began, with shallow pullbacks, a second close above its 200-DMA, and positive weekend-talks outcomes offering a path above 1.3485/1.3500 resistance.

USD/JPY held modest gains in a narrow band near its 21-DMA, with any oil-driven uptick from the Iran talks likely to put 160 back in play.

AUD/USD printed a doji, signaling consolidation beneath 0.71 congestion while holding above its 55-DMA.

Treasury yields were up about 2 basis points with the 2s-10s curve edging up to +51.1bp.

The S&P 500 dipped 0.13%.

WTI was down 1.6%.

Gold was steady and copper rose about 2%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.26%, USD/JPY +0.16%, GBP/USD +0.24%, AUD/USD -0.03%, DXY -0.17%, EUR/JPY +0.45%, GBP/JPY +0.45%, AUD/JPY +0.19%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

• NY opened near 0.7065 after AUD/USD traded downward in Asia & Europe's morning

• The pair rallied in early NY as US$, US yields traded downward

• USD/CNH drop to 6.8213, rallies in gold, stocks, silver added to AUD/USD's buoyancy

• The pair traded 0.7092 but sellers emerged and the pair turned lower on the session

• US$, yields firmed up while stocks & gold turned down; AUD/USD dipped toward 0.7065

• The pair sat near 0.7075 late, AUD/USD traded down -0.11% in NY's afternoon

• A daily doji formed, suggest the pair could be consolidating its recent gains

• Rising monthly RSI, pair's hold above the 55-DMA, daily cloud are bullish signs
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan adopts a tactical neutral bias on CHF in the near-term.

"EURCHF inching higher as USDCHF has struggled to break below 0.79. Continued headlines and back and forth around the ceasefire make it difficult to have a huge amount of risk right now. I do think we eventually muddle through to a positive outcome with Iran, but when and how long that takes is another question.

Whilst buying dips in EURCHF would make sense with that view, we're struggling to get invested in the franc given the lack of clear correlation," JPM notes.

"Back on the sidelines then, and worth noting systematics bought CHF the last two days after selling 12 out of the prior 15," JPM adds.

• Shares of copper miners rise, tracking gains in prices of the red metal [MET/L]

• Benchmark copper on London Metal Exchange up 1.7% at $12,901 a metric ton, its highest since March 17

• Copper prices hit their highest in more than three weeks as investors weigh signs of improved demand in top metals consumer China against uncertainty over a fragile ceasefire in the Iran war

• U.S.-listed shares of global mining giants Rio Tinto

up 1.8% and BHP Group rise marginally

• Miners Southern Copper and Freeport-McMoRan

gain 2.6% and 2.1%, respectively

• Canada's Hudbay Minerals jumps 3%, Ero Copper

adds 1.7% and Teck Resources up 3.5%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

Credit Agricole CIB Research sees a limited scope for further USD downside from current levels.

"We doubt that the latest FX price action is the beginning of a downtrend for the USD, however. This is because of two considerations: (1) there is still a huge amount of uncertainty in the Middle East, suggesting that the conflict is far from resolved and delaying any normalisation of the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz; and (2) a sustained decline of global energy prices remains a distant prospect and would suggest that the economies of energy importers like the Eurozone are still to experience the negative consequences from the energy supply shock triggered by the war," CACIB notes.

"This could mean that demand for the safe-haven USD may not weaken significantly further and could undermine the appeal of EUR-denominated assets for example," CACIB adds.