• Ether rallied 2011.63-2088.16, rallied above the 50- & 10-DMAs, up +2.11% at writing

• Rally followed Monday's doji candle, a bull signal;reinforces bull sign from daily RSI

• Longer-term signals likely still remain concerns for Ether bulls however

• Monthly inverted hammer in place for March, consolidation of drop form Jan. high persists

• Bear flag continuation pattern on daily charts add to the bearish tech signals

• Flag base, Feb. monthly low are impediments for Ether bears

• Breaks of both bring the 2025 yearly low, 1200.00 area into focus
eth


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research previews the US March jobs report on Friday.

"After job growth came in below all expectations in Feb, we look for NFP to rebound to a solid 65k (private: 75k). The weakness in Feb was largely due to cold weather and the Kaiser strike. We expect some payback this month. Education & health, leisure & hospitality and construction should lead job gains. Both initial and continuing claims were benign during the survey week," BofA notes.

"More importantly, we expect the u-rate to rise to 4.5%, with some risk of rounding down to 4.4%. This is indicative of stable labor market but with some downside risks," BofA adds.

• Unilever-McCormick M&A deal news contributes to cable's rise to 1.3264

• British consumer goods giant Unilever to receive $15.7 billion in cash from deal

• Risk-sensitive pound also benefits from U.S. stock gains: Nasdaq up 2%

• 1.3264 is intra-day high (1.3193 = Ldn-NY session low, before M&A deal news)

• Resistance levels include 1.3282 (Monday high) and 1.3310 (March 26 low)

• 1.3160 was 4-month low in Asia - before USD fell on WSJ report re: Trump/Iran war

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research discusses NZD outlook and warns about chasing AUD/NZD rallies beyond 1.22.

"The domestic data calendar is quiet for the week with the next key event the RBNZ’s 8 April meeting. Geopolitical developments are likely to be primary drivers of near‑term NZD moves. Overall, we take a cautious near-term view of the NZD, as geo-political headlines drive near-term moves," ANZ notes.

"On the crosses, the NZD outperformed the AUD this week, with the AUD/NZD  below 1.20 for the first time in two weeks, at around 1.195. We are cautious about rallies beyond 1.22, as we expect relative rate dynamics to turn NZD supportive in H2. Positioning points to scope for NZD outperformance, with CFTC data showing relatively stretched AUD net longs versus a still net‑short NZD, leaving room for additional NZD long positioning," ANZ adds.

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses GBP outlook in light of revising its GBP/USD and EUR/GBP forecasts.

"We think that the current BoE rate market expectations are overly aggressive, especially given that the UK economy faces a very grave stagflation shock that could darken its growth outlook.. We expect that the BoE would hike policy rates in 2026 albeit less aggressively than expected by the UK rates markets at present.

Like 2025, the tightening of the monetary conditions should add to the economic headwinds and may even magnify sovereign credit risks in the UK," CACIB notes.

We now expect GBP/USD to trade at 1.31 (up from 1.30 previously) in Q426 and at 1.39 (down from 1.40 previously) in Q427. In the case of EUR/GBP, we now see the cross at 0.86 (up from 0.85 previously) in Q426 and at 0.84 (up from 0.83 previously) in Q427," CACIB adds.

• AUD/USD fell to 0.6834 in Asia hours then rallied, pierced the daily cloud base

• The pair traded 0.6875 in Asia a swell then traded withing that range in Europe

• NY opened near 0.6860, the pair traded up +0.09% in early action

• US$ sales & rallies in gold, silver and stocks helped limt the pair's downside

• USD/CNH bounce off its low, rise in oil helped limit AUD/USD's topside

• Daily doji formed which suggests investors are indecisive, consolidation phase

• Falling monthly RSI, March monthly inverted hammer are bearish signals however
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• A period of calmer price action and contained FX declines has prompted a mild reduction in EUR/USD option risk premium

• Traders are also mindful of the impending long Easter weekend holiday and related time decay implications

• Implied volatility retreats to its lowest levels since March 11 - 1-month expiry to 7.4, 3-month 7.1 and 1-year 7.2

• However, current levels remain well above pre conflict lows - 1-month was 5.75 and 3-month 5.9 in late Feb

• Risk reversals keep a strong EUR put over call vol premium to reflect simmering risk of deeper EUR/USD declines

• 1-month 25 delta is 1.25 from recent conflict driven 3-year highs at 1.7 for downside over upside strikes

• That contract had been trading with a small topside over downside strike premium in late February

• Related comment - Bearish EUR/USD option skew: How it can work in your favour

• Related comment - Options: the canary in the FX coal mine
EUR/USD FXO implied volatility


EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/JPY has seen more pressure on its 100-dma - now 182.90, but JPY bulls need a close below

• EUR/JPY fell 184.30-182.60 Monday after more intervention threats - trades 182.87-183.57 Tues

• USD/JPY back within familiar 158-160 range from new 2-year high at 160.47 Monday

• Setback low 159.33 Monday is now support - inside day 159.50-97 range so far on Tuesday

• Close below 21-dma 158.90 would help to cement a near term high for USD/JPY

• USD/JPY option barriers at 160.50 and 161.00, with July 2024 highs ahead of 162.00 still possible
EURJPY=EBS


JPY=EBS


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD has traded a 41 pip range thus far Tuesday; 0.6834-0.6875

• 0.6834 was Monday low too. It is also the lowest level since Jan 22

• Global stock losses weigh on risk-sensitive AUD: Nikkei down 13% in March

• USD index up 2.9% in March (USD is safe-haven; U.S. is net energy exporter)

• RBA uncertain on path for rates after March hike (Westpac sees 3 hikes ahead)

• Australia's coming-of-age bonds bonanza faces key sentiment test

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD 1.1447-90 EBS range on Tuesday having reached 1.1443 Monday

• The lowest traded during Middle East conflict is 1.1409

• The target to correct 2025-2026 bull trend from 1.0125 to 1.2084 is 1.1336

• Uptrend may extend above 1.21 If the correction ends close to 1.1336

• Sustained losses under 1.1336 would suggest correction runs toward 1.10 or 1.08

• Traders have bought few dollars and that may tell during this period of uncertainty

•
EURUSD correction


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable traded a 64 pip range in Asia; 1.3160-1.3224 (low before high)

• 1.3160 is the lowest level since November; WSJ report spurred the rally to 1.3224

• WSJ says Trump told aides he's willing to end Iran war without reopening Hormuz

• 1.3440-1.3509 was GBP/USD range on February 27 (day before Iran war began)

• USD index up 2.9% in March (dollar is safe-haven; U.S. is net energy exporter)

• UK Q4 C/A deficit 18.4 billion pounds vs 23.4 billion expected; Q4 GDP up 0.1%

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY down to 159.50 EBS tad earlier, through 159.61 100-HMA

• Some bounce since but offers now eyed above the 100-HMA, high early 159.97

• Threat of FX intervention causing some longs to adjust positions

• Support from 159.33 low yesterday, 200-DMA 159.20 below

• Some buying out of Europe, London possible but upticks likely sold

• Lack of more upside could see even more paring of JPY shorts

• Related comment , also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD +0.2% in Asia after WSJ report that Trump is willing to end Iran war

• Trump told aides he is willing to end war without reopening Strait of Hormuz

• Crude oil gives up a gain of 4% to trade 1.2% lower; S&P E-mini rallies 1%

• Oil had rallied on reports Iran had struck a Kuwait oil tanker in Dubai port

• If WSJ report confirmed, traders will welcome end to the war

• But doubts on reopening of Strait of Hormuz likely to temper enthusiasm

• Support 1.3150-60, 1.3125-30, resistance 1.3250, 1.3280; UK Q4 GDP due Tue

• Range in Asia 1.3160-1.3224, on Monday 1.3174-1.3282
How GDP in the UK has changed:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/THB slips on extended selling from gold traders and exporters

• Pair last at 32.73-76, traded amid 32.72-32.93 range so far

• Support at 32.70 eyed, break may see 32.50 but likely to stall

• Uptrend for pair remains intact on growth, high oil woes

• Related
THB

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• Australian gold stocks rises as much as 1.5%

• Gold rose as safe-haven demand picked up, although prices were headed for a monthly decline as the Middle East conflict drove expectations of inflation, higher global interest rates [GOL/]

• Sub-index sheds 25.2% so far this month; set for worst month since June 2013

• Resolute Mining , Evolution Mining gain as much as 5.8% and 1%, respectively

• YTD, AXGD down 12.8%

(Reporting by Sherin Sunny in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Tue, RBA meeting minutes reveal uncertainty on OCR pathway

• RBA will respond appropriately if Middle East war triggers economic downturn

• Pair down for 8th-consecutive trading day, risks fall towards 0.6660

• Trump refreshes ultimatum; Iran says U.S. proposals are unrealistic

• CN Mar NBS manufacturing PMI due Tue, Reuters poll consensus 50.1

• AU Feb balance of trade due Thur, Reuters poll consensus 2.58 bln surplus

• Range Asia 0.6834-555, support 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7282
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD -0.7% from Mon 0.5760 high as energy crisis continues to weigh

• NZ Finance Minister Willis anticipates "much higher" inflation peak

• Trump renews ultimatum; Iran says U.S. proposals are unrealistic

• Safe haven demand pushes USD index to highest levels since May 2025

• NZD probes below crucial 0.5710 support, further downside highly likely

• Range NZ 0.57131-215, support 0.5700 0.5580, resistance 0.5891 0.5918 0.6092
NZD Daily 55-DMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.6% from Mon 0.6894 high as Iran war weighs on risk appetite

• RBA meeting minutes 0030 GMT may provide further insight on OCR trajectory

• Trump makes fresh ultimatum; Iran says peace proposals are not realistic

• DXY hits 100.61, highest level since May 2025 on safe haven buying

• AUD remains vulnerable to slide towards 0.6660 after breaking 0.6897 support

• Overnight range 0.6834-745, support 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7282
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Morgan Stanley previews the US jobs report for the month of March on Friday

"Payrolls probably rebounded in March as 31k strikers returned to work and a swing toward warmer temperatures boosted weather-sensitive employment," MS notes.

"We forecast a 60k rise in headline payrolls and 70k for private payrolls. The unemployment rate was probably unchanged, and we expect average hourly earnings continued to rise on trend, +0.3% m/m," MS adds.

The dollar index rose on Monday as oil prices advanced further in the face of more unease over the Iran war. President Donald Trump warned that Iran's energy plants and oil wells would be obliterated if it did not open the Strait of Hormuz, after Tehran described U.S. peace proposals as "unrealistic" and fired waves of missiles at Israel. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said longer-run inflation expectations appear to be holding in there despite the current energy shock, and the central bank does not yet need to make a decision on how to react to the latest troubles. Greece's central bank governor said the European Central Bank's March baseline price and growth projections are at risk should war in the Middle East drag on and policymakers will need to act quickly to potential signs inflation expectations are drifting.

Two Chinese container ships sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday on their second attempt to leave the Gulf after turning back on Friday, ship-tracking data showed.

Thousands of soldiers from the U.S. Army's elite 82nd Airborne Division have started arriving in the Middle East, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Monday.

U.S. Treasury yields fell 8-10 basis points across maturities with the 2s-10s curve little changed. Falling bond yields, a sign the market may be shifting focus to worries over slowing growth from fears of inflation due to the Iran war, may be where the yen begins to benefit. Bears remained in control of EUR/USD, while AUD/USD struck a fresh 2-month low with no letup in negative technical signs, and sterling hit a 4-month low that left it eyeing support at 1.3124.

The S&P 500 was trading 0.41% lower in the New York afternoon.

WTI crude oil rose 3.54%.

Copper edged 0.7% higher while gold rose 0.53%

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.35%, USD/JPY -0.45%, GBP/USD -0.55%, AUD/USD -0.28%, DXY +0.35%, EUR/JPY -0.91%, GBP/JPY -1.02%, AUD/JPY -0.72%.(Burton Frierson)

• NY opened near 0.6855 after 0.6895 traded overnight, slide extended in NY

• US$ buying, AUD/JPY fall,USD/CNH lift to 6.9211 helped AUD/USD fall in NY

• Erosion of some gains for gold, silver & a drop in copper added weight

• AUD/USD hit 0.6834, a 2-month low, US$ then softened and AUD/UD bounced

• The pair neared 0.6855 in NY's afternoon, it traded down -0.27%

• Techs are bearish; RSIs are falling, pair below the daily cloud, 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs

• Diverging monthly RSI, March monthly inverted hammer add to bearish tech signs
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research highlights a change in FX Dynamics from the current energy shock.

"The broad Dollar marked a fresh 2026 high [last] week as investors took stock of the burgeoning energy shock. While markets remain highly responsive to headlines, we are increasingly cognizant that the impact of higher energy prices over the last month (and for some time to come) will leave a more lasting imprint on FX markets even if the conflict comes to an end relatively soon," GS notes.

"In short, the playbook for risk-on trades has shifted over the last month, which we do not think is fully reflected in market pricing or investor sentiment," GS adds.

• Cable hits 1.3184 after tripping stops sub-1.3220 (March 13 low) and 1.3200

• 1.3184 is the lowest level since Dec 2 (1.3180 was the low that day)

• Middle East war escalation concerns inflate safe-haven dollar

• Iran calls U.S. peace proposals "unrealistic" (April 6 is a Trump deadline)

• GBP/USD bear targets include 1.31 and 1.3011 (November low)

• On the horns of a growth-inflation dilemma, Powell to speak at Harvard

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research discusses USD/JPY outlook on rising oil prices.

"USD/JPY has traded within the 158–160 range, and ongoing high oil prices suggest continued upward movement. In the short term, key resistance is near 162, which would see more verbal intervention from authorities. We think the bar is higher in terms of USD/JPY levels for intervention because the shift higher is a function of a negative terms of trade shock rather than speculative flows. Further, previous episodes of intervention have been unsuccessful over the medium term, as market forces will likely weaken the JPY in an environment of higher oil prices," ANZ notes.

"According to our analysis, if oil prices rise to the 120–150 range, the pair may test levels of 164. Conversely, should oil prices decline to 80–90, the pair may revert near 156," ANZ adds.