Credit Agricole CIB Research previews next week's ECB June policy meeting.

"In the near term, EUR investors will focus on the outcome of the ECB meeting. With a 25bp rate hike almost fully priced in at the time of writing, key for the EUR outlook would be the bank’s updated forward guidance. The ECB should maintain its data-dependent policy approach while its updated forecasts could point at intensifying downside risks to growth and a lack of broad-based second-round inflation effects," CACIB notes.

"A ‘dovish hike’ by the ECB would thus do little to boost the EUR rate appeal and leave it vulnerable amid persistent geopolitical risks," CACIB adds.

• Cable drops to 1.3395 as strong U.S. employment data boosts dollar

• 1.3395 is the lowest level since May 28 (1.3368 was the low that day)

• Strong U.S. jobs data is boost for hawks advocating Fed hike in Q3/Q4

• First Fed meeting to be chaired by Warsh scheduled for June 16-17

• 1.3483 was one-week high for GBP/USD during the London morning

• Scottish government to sound out investors for debut 'kilts' bond sale

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research likes short EUR/USD exposure in the near-term, while maintains a bullish bias over the medium-term.

"US real rates have risen vs. other major economies due to the resilience of the consumer and labour market following the energy shock, which also suggests policy rates are not as restrictive as commonly assumed. Unlike the EUR, the dollar has benefited from the pricing of a Fed hike. We think there is room to price more tightening on US data & the shift in Fed rhetoric, although Warsh's view at the June FOMC will be key. For now the balance of risks continue to favour short EUR/USD," BofA notes.

"Our medium-term EUR view remains largely constructive. For EUR-USD, levels below our 2Q forecast of 1.14 would be an opportunity to raise USD hedges, on eventual growth convergence, Iran normalisation, and supportive valuations," BofA adds.

CIBC Research discusses its reaction to today's US and Canada May jobs reports.

"Hiring remains strong in the US in May, with 172K jobs added well above the 88K consensus expectation. Previous two months were revised up, April revised up by 64K and March revised up by 29K. Private sector added 120K jobs, leisure and hospitality added 70K and health care/social assistance adding 47K, remaining strong for the last three months. Government added 52K jobs. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3% as expected. The participation rate remains the same at 61.8%. Aggregate hours worked slowed to 0.1% m/m. Wage growth accelerated to 0.3% m/m from 0.2% in April, but overall, the report suggests that the US labor market is on solid footing and remains in balanced territory," CIBC notes.

"The Canadian labour market sparked back to life in May, with the 88K gain in jobs well above consensus expectations and taking the unemployment rate back down to 6.6%.  Job gains were driven by full time work, with the sector breakdown showing particularly strong growth in construction, information & recreation, transportation and manufacturing. However, while much stronger than expected, the release should be viewed in the context of the weakness seen earlier in the year. For the Bank of Canada, today's release shouldn't change the current on-hold stance, even with the large headline beat. For now today's strength has brought us back to where we stood earlier in the year, and further tightening in the labour market will need to be seen (alongside an acceleration in core inflation) to bring the Bank of Canada off the sidelines," CIBC adds.

• Cable meets headwind pre-1.3485 after extending north from 1.3419 (Asia low)

• 1.3485 was May 29 high. 1.3483 was one-week high during the London morning

• More offers likely around 1.35 (GBP/USD was last at 1.35 on May 26)

• U.S. jobs report due at 1230 GMT: May NFP forecast at 85k; jobless rate f/c 4.3%

• UK firms plan smaller price rises than in April, BoE's DMP survey shows

• BoE rate hold expected on June 18. UK by-election in Makerfield on June 18 too

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

June 5 (Reuters) - FX traders should note that EUR/USD usually closes in positive territory in June and this could well be the case again.

A study of the EUR/USD's performance for each June since 2000 shows it has risen in 16 of the last 26 years, highlighting a seemingly inbuilt structural strength. Seasonality should not be considered in isolation, but it's a useful tool combined with other factors.

EUR/USD's downside has been limited by the 1.1577 Fibo, a 61.8% retrace of the 1.1409 to 1.1849 (March to April) EBS rise, in May and that could well fuel a recovery.

The 61.8% retracement is known by some as the "golden ratio" due to its outsized significance in determining the direction of prices.

There is scope for a retest of the May 29, 1.1686 peak, a break above which will accelerate gains. Note June is usually a bad month for the dollar and that should help underpin EUR/USD.
Daily Chart


Seasonality Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Benchmark 1-month AUD/USD implied vol trades 7.35 — a new low since January's base at 7.2

• Post-pandemic low sits at 6.5, hit in December 2025 — that's the floor to watch

• FX options need realised vol to thrive — stubbornly absent, the whole complex is under pressure

• Past 1-month realised vol at 7.75 suggests implied vol looks cheap at current levels

• Daily delta hedging rewarding holders if vol can repeat last month's performance

• Related - FX options have already dialled back the NFP risk premium
AUD/USD FXO implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

June 5 (Reuters) - USD/JPY could rise to test a 2026 peak despite fresh warnings from Japan about yen weakness. The Japanese currency weakened to the critical 160-per-dollar mark briefly in early trading, hitting the level for the third straight session. The 160 threshold is widely seen as a line in the sand for potential intervention by authorities in Tokyo. Japan is ready to respond at any time on foreign exchange and reserves the right to take "decisive action" against excessive volatility, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday. USD/JPY has seen a 159.30-160.09 range this week, according to EBS data. An internal model shows USD/JPY should be trading well above 160.

USD/JPY continues to trade above the 158.54 Fibonacci level, a 61.8% retrace of the recent 160.72 to 155.00 (EBS) drop. Also, as long tails were left on Wednesday and Thursday candlesticks, these signal a rejection of the downside.

There is scope for gains to rise to test the 2026 160.72 peak recorded in April, a break above which would put the Japanese authorities under pressure to act.
Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Yen hits key 160 level for third session, dollar buoyed by Gulf woes

• An internal model shows USD/JPY should be trading well above 160

• USD/JPY has seen a tight 159.90-160.01 range, on Friday, according to EBS data

• Japan warns of 'decisive action' to defend yen as FX reserves tumble

• There is scope for gains to retest the 2026 160.72 peak

• A break above 160.72 peak would put the Japanese authorities under pressure to act

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY, EUR/JPY is above +0.5 (pairs moving in tandem)

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded on a 1.34 handle over the past week; 1.3407-1.3485

• 1.34185-1.3431 is Friday range-to-date. U.S. jobs report due at 1230 GMT

• May non-farm payrolls forecast at 85k; jobless rate forecast at 4.3%

• Labour's Burnham signals he would run in leadership contest against Starmer

• BBC says Survation poll showed Burnham on 49% support in Makerfield vs 39% Reform

• MPC's Dhingra (dove) to speak at 1340 GMT; BoE's Bailey speaks at 1800 GMT

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY 160.00 breakout hype has been unwound — spot failed to sustain gains above the figure and intervention also absent

• 1-month expiry implied volatility jumped from 4-yr lows of 6.3 to 7.25 as 160.00 tested, but now 6.5 as realised vol stays absent

• With spot pinned at 160.00 and realised vol disappointing, time decay costs now outweigh breakout risk for vanilla option holders

• Sub-1-week 10-delta butterfly spreads remain sticky near multi-year highs — tail risk hasn't yet deflated despite the vol surface easing

• NFP vol premium also paring back — overnight USD/JPY straddle breakeven now 53 pips, down sharply from 73 pips on Thursday

• Options market verdict: 160.00 is a ceiling, not a launchpad — risk premium unwind signals fading conviction in any near-term breakout

• However, NFP remains the wildcard — a major miss or beat could quickly reopen the breakout debate
USD/JPY FX option implied volatility


USD/JPY 10 delta butterfly spreads


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD consolidates in Asia after closing unchanged on Thursday

• Traders take to sidelines as conflicting reports on Iran peace talks tire

• Hezbollah rejection clouds Lebanon ceasefire, prospects for ending Iran war

• U.S. jobs report Fri key; NFP expected +85k, unemployment rate steady @ 4.3%

• Data more likely to lift USD than weaken it

• Labour's Burnham signals he would run in leadership contest against Starmer

• BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, MPC's Swati Dhingra speak Friday

• 1.3350-1.3500 range trading to continue; support 1.3400-05, 1.3370-75

• Resistance 1.3460-70, 1.3500; Thu range 1.34115-1.34615, Asia 1.34185-1.3430
UK seeing a sharp increase in inflows:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.2% Fri as markets begin to revisit Middle East realities

• Hezbollah's rejection of 'renewed' U.S. negotiated ceasefire speaks volumes

• Trump says Middle East ceasefires mean "shooting in a more moderate manner"

• U.S. May non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +85k

• AUD probing 0.7110 55-DMA, targets 0.7080 support, break below quite bearish

• Pair pushing hourly lower Bollinger band, may slow progress but bias lower

• Range Asia 0.7105-36, support 0.7080 0.6834, resistance 0.7200 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA


AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Australia's Resolute Mining fall as much as 14.2% to A$1.025, logging their worst trading session since November 18, 2024

• Stock hits its lowest level since November 24, 2025

• The gold miner says production at its Syama gold mine in Mali impacted by security-related logistical disruptions

• Says it expects 2026 Syama gold production at the lower end of its forecast

• Stock down 14% this year, including the day's move

(Reporting by Rajasik Mukherjee in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY market jittery, on nervous hold ahead of US jobs report tonight

• Japan FX intervention watch on after recent govt jaw-boning

• PM Takaichi looks to have signed off on action if seen necessary

• BOJ June hike on deck too, question whether July hike telegraphed too

• USD/JPY 159.98-160.01 EBS so far today, 160.09 highs past two days

• Japanese exporters likely on offer 160.00+ but Gotobi Tokyo fix today

• Japanese importers seen busy too, demand too on dips from specs, investors

• In options, $2.3 bln 159.90-160.00 strike expiries today, gravitational pull

• Below total $3.3 bln between 159.00-50, above $1.3 bln between 160.10-65

• JGB-US Tsy rate differentials in stasis for now, in 2s @265, 10s @181 bps

• Nothing definitive on US-Iran, crude oil prices off a tad

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on US economy ,

• US markets , , ,

• Fed-speak , ,
USD/JPY:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries into next week:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD flat early Fri as traders search for next directional cue

• RBA's Bullock: signs rate hikes are working, inflation still a concern

• U.S. initial jobless claims 225k (poll 213k), hits 4-month high

• Hezbollah rejects renewed Israel ceasefire announced by U.S. Thur

• Trump says Middle East ceasefires mean "shooting in a more moderate manner"

• AUD needs fresh catalyst to exit 0.7080-0.7200 channel, slight downside bias

• Overnight range 0.7127-49, support 0.7080 0.6834, resistance 0.7200 0.7283
US Initial Jobless Claims & Planned Layoffs


AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Goldman Sachs Research maintains a bullish on CHF over the medium-term.

"The shift in the SNB's intervention bias has been key in capping any haven-based gains for the Franc so far, but we think a reacceleration in domestic Swiss inflation should be enough to shift that bias back to a neutral setting and uncover those haven benefits. This is the main angle through which we will be watching the SNB's upcoming meeting on June 18," GS notes.

"This path to looser SNB FX management is central to our expectation for further CHF outperformance in the months ahead, but several important risks remain. First and foremost, EUR/CHF carry-to-vol is close to post-2015 highs, weakening risk-reward in outright downside positions. Second, we find evidence that gold's shifting correlation to risk is spilling over to the Franc and is likely to continue to be a source of idiosyncratic vol for the Franc via its terms of trade linkages," GS adds.

• GBP$ eking out slight gain in NY afternoon, +0.1% at 1.3430; NorAm range 1.3462-1.3427

• Early NorAm rise on back of Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, broader Mideast peace ebbs

• Bulls reluctant to take out multiple DMA resistance by 21-, 100- and 30-DMAs 1.3464-88

• Market focus shifting to U.S. payroll data Friday, for clues at Fed policy in H2 2026

• Today's IJC was a smidge higher, continuing claims lower; may be at odds w/falling NFP f/c

• Mideast peace headline yaw should revert to primary focus post-NFP

• GBP$ remains anchored near the middle of its recent 1.33-1.35 range awaiting peace

• Supt at 1.3412 the June 3/4 lows, 1.3386 the daily cloud base, 1.3342 the lower 30-d Bolli

GBP$ Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1625 after EUR/UDS rallied sharply in Europe's morning

• Rally extended early NY on USD, US yield , UDS/CNH, oil drops

• Additional weight added to USD due to gains in gold, silver and equities

• EUR/USD rallied above the 10-DMA, hit 1.1646 then started sliding down

• USD firmed up in NY's afternoon, EUR/USD neared 1.1620 late, was up only +0.20%

• Head & shoulders on monthly chart, pair's hold below 10-, 21-, 55- & 200-DMAs worry bulls

• US May employment report is a key risk for Friday
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7130 after 0.7123 traded overnight, pair rallied in early NY

• Drops in USD, US yields , USD/CNH & oil helped boost the pair

• Gold, silver, copper & equity gains also helped the lift; AUD/USD hit 0.7149

• A bit of USD firmness saw the pair near 0.7140 late, pair was up +0.18% in NY's afternoon

• Head& shoulders on daily chart, falling monthly RSI are concerning signs for AUD/USD bulls

• US May payroll report Friday could determine if the bears signals get validated
audusad


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research previews the US May jobs report on Friday.

"We forecast payrolls rose 65k and private payrolls rose 75k. The federal government layoffs remain a drag on headline payrolls, and we also incorporate drags on private payrolls from the transportation sector," MS notes.

"For the household survey, we expect another 4.3% unemployment rate (still on the cusp of 4.2%) and an unchanged labor force participation rate. Average hourly earnings likely rise 0.3% m/m, and the 12-month pace slows 0.1 pp to 3.5% y/y," MS adds.

USD/JPY is maintaining a firmly bullish tone, reclaiming the key 160 psychological level despite pressure from softer oil, lower U.S. yields, and ongoing intervention concerns. Intraday action shows persistent dip-buying ahead of the Tenkan-sen near 159.42, with Friday's US jobs report looming and as large options expire. While daily indicators such as stochastics hint at a possible pullback and some yen short-covering, near-record futures open interest underscores continued buildup of short yen positions.

Further gains would target 160.47, the March high, followed by the April 30 peak at 160.72.

Ministry of Finance data suggests rising JGB yields are beginning to attract investor flows, which could intensify if the Bank of Japan delivers a widely expected 25 basis point rate hike to 1% and signals adjustments to bond tapering.

While JGB buying may buoy the yen, USD/JPY would need to fall below its 158.78 21-DMA, the cloud top at 158.11 and May 6 high at 157.93 to attract bears.
Yen


(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

ANZ Research discusses NZD outlook and target NZD/USD and AUD/NZD at 0.64, and 1.17 respectively by year-end.

"The NZD was the strongest performer in the G10 through May, with NZD/USD rising 1.3%. The move was driven by a more clearly hawkish RBNZ and a drop in oil prices. Clear de-escalation and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would support gains via improved risk sentiment and lower oil prices. In that scenario, the NZD should continue to outperform, particularly as rate differentials would regain further control of moves, which, given how hawkishly the RBNZ has repriced, should be supportive," ANZ notes.

"AUD/NZD reversed sharply lower after reaching a year-to-date high of 1.2288 (27 May), ending the month closer to 1.20. This reflected soft Australian data and the RBNZ’s hawkish hold. We think the cross has peaked. With the RBA probably at the end of its cycle and the RBNZ set to begin hiking, widening rate differentials should drive AUD/NZD lower, in line with our year-end forecast of 1.17. Positioning dynamics also favour downside, with AUD still heavily net long, leaving the cross vulnerable to a pullback," ANZ adds.

Sterling is poised to remain range-bound in the near term, with GBP/USD likely oscillating within its established 1.33–1.35 band as markets await clearer signals from geopolitical developments and key inflation data.

The pound moved higher Thursday, pushing toward recent trend highs near 1.35, buoyed by a more optimistic geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East. However, the situation remains volatile. Iran has repeatedly signaled its unwillingness to negotiate its nuclear capabilities — a position at odds with President Donald Trump's insistence that any forthcoming peace deal must include such concessions — creating a meaningful ceiling for risk-on momentum. On the UK domestic front, fiscal concerns persist, with elevated gilt yields reflecting ongoing investor caution. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has managed to quiet some of the political noise recently, but the June 18 Makerfield by-election carries fresh significance following the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons, which potentially clears the path for Andy Burnham to mount a leadership bid. On the monetary policy front, the Bank of England appears set on a steady near-term course, with futures markets pricing in two 25bp rate hikes in Q4 2026. The Federal Reserve is similarly expected to hold steady in the near term, though STIR futures indicate roughly 60% odds of a 25 basis point hike in December. A recent hawkish shift in Fed expectations, given persistent U.S. inflation, has lent support to the U.S. dollar. Friday's U.S. nonfarm payroll release will be closely watched for clues on Fed policy direction and, by extension, the near-term GBP/USD outlook.

Technically, cable is likely to continue trading within its 1.33–1.35 consolidation range until a more decisive geopolitical development or UK/U.S. inflation-related catalyst emerges.
Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)