• NZD/USD -0.3% from Wed 0.60639 high as jobs data shows worrying signs

• NZ Q4 unemployment 5.4% (poll 5.3%), jobs growth +0.5% q/q (poll +0.3%)

• Recent DXY upswing fading as geopolitical tensions escalate again

• U.S. shoots down Iranian drone approaching aircraft carrier

• NZD upswing remains intact for now, topside target: Jul 1 0.6120 high

• Range NZ 0.6034-639, support 0.5870 0.5730 0.5580, resistance 0.6120
NZD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.9% late Tues, but well below 0.70505 session highs

• RBA's hawkish hike accompanied by higher CPI forecasts will underpin AUD

• U.S. House of Representatives approves funding to end latest shutdown

• Broad USD index -0.2% as rally inspired by the Warsh Fed nomination fades

• Geopolitical tensions re-escalate as U.S. says it shot down Iranian drone

• AUD likely to push back towards resistance near 3-year 0.7158 high

• AU Jan S&P PMIs due Wed, Dec balance on goods Thur (poll +3.25 bln)

• Overnight range 0.6981-0.70505, support 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Weekly 52-WMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP$ reversed early NorAm weakness, +0.18% at 1.3691; NorAm range 1.3651-1.3707

• Pair anchored near 1.37 after post-Warsh nomination slide as traders await BoE on Feb 5

• Expected rate hold, Rtrs f/c 7-2 vote to hold; vote and presser in focus for clues to policy

• BoE's Bailey has said inflation could fall near 2% in April or May; guidance crucial

• Wednesday's UK svcs PMI , f/c 54.3, not likely to hold sway on BoE barring a blowout

• GBP$ res 1.3714 Monday high, 1.3734 falling 100-HMA, 1.3794 upper 30-d Bolli

• Supt 1.3651 Tues low, 1.3634 daily conversion line, 1.3535 rising 30-DMA

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research reviews the February policy meeting.

"The RBA raised its cash rate by 25bp to 3.85% as widely expected. The Board’s decision statement as well as the SMP were hawkish, indicating that the RBA has performed an about-turn on inflation within the space of five months, having cut rates in August," CACIB notes.

"AUD/USD has been lifted by the RBA’s hawkish hike and cleared the 0.70 level. The next important technical resistance level is 0.7050, which the exchange rate failed to close above last week leading to a rapid retreat...AUD/USD has a chance of getting above this important technical resistance level, which would clear the way for more upside," CACIB adds.

• NY opened near 0.7010 after 0.7051 traded overnight, slide extended in early NY

• US yield gains drove US$ buying early NY, AUD/USD fell to 0.6981

• Yields, US$ then softened while gold & silver remained in positive territory

• AUD/USD hit 0.7024 then neared 0.7010 late with help from a lift in USD/CNH

• AUD/USD traded up +0.90% late in the session and techs leaned bullish

• Rising daily, monthly RSIs & support fomr the 10-DMA are bullish signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research previews the February ECB and BoE policy meetings. 

"We expect the ECB to remain on hold, and keep its messaging unchanged. The discussion will likely revolve around downside risks, focusing on increased trade uncertainty, growth momentum, and the exchange rate," MS notes.

"We expect a 6-3 vote for a hold, with inflation projected at target in 2026, and with slack upped on a higher jobless rate. We expect unchanged guidance," MS adds. 

EUR/USD could face downward pressure as European inflation data may raise concerns among policymakers and strengthen the dollar's yield advantage.

The pair erased overnight gains and traded close to flat on Tuesday, reflecting the market's cautious sentiment. France's January Consumer Price Index (CPI) significantly missed expectations, with the year-on-year figure at +0.3% against forecasts of +0.6%.

Month-on-month, it fell by 0.3%, diverging from the anticipated -0.1%. Harmonized CPI also disappointed, coming in at +0.4% year-on-year and -0.4% month-on-month, both below market expectations.

These unexpectedly soft figures may heighten worries among ECB officials that inflation in the euro zone could undershoot the bank's 2.0% target. As a result, market participants might expect the ECB to express concerns about disinflation during its upcoming meeting, potentially weighing on the euro.

Recent comments from ECB policymaker François Villeroy and Austrian central bank chief Martin Kocher indicated that euro strength could help inflation undershoot and necessitate a policy response, further diminishing bullish sentiment for EUR/USD.

Additionally, the dollar's yield advantage over the euro has slightly increased with help from the data, as U.S.-German two-year yield spreads widened again, approaching the two-month wide reached on Jan. 20. Should this trend continue, it could exert additional bearish pressure on EUR/USD, highlighting the correlation between yield spreads and currency movements.
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs maintains a cautious bearish bias on JPY

"Overall, we remain cautiously bearish Yen, but the elevated risk of actual (and possibly coordinated) intervention combined with uncertainty around the election should leave investors wary of adding fresh positions right here," GS notes.

"Instead, it reinforces our relative preference for CAD and ILS funding over JPY, USD, and EUR," GS adds.

Deutsche Bank maintains a bullish bias on gold targetingUSD 6,000/oz by end of 2026.

"1) We argue that the adjustment in precious metal prices overshot the significance of its ostensible catalysts. Moreover, investor intentions in precious (official, institutional, individual) have not likely changed for the worse as of yet. (

2) Gold's thematic drivers remain positive and we believe investors' rationale for gold (and precious) allocations will not have changed. 

3) We see signs that China has been a prominent driver of precious metal investment flows. Thus, the rise in SGE premiums late last week is an important sign of amplified buying interest in gold," DB notes.

"Together these suggest the rationale for a positive outlook has not changed from that described last week. We reiterate our gold USD 6,000/oz target," DB adds.

The indeterminate source of demand for gold may spell trouble for the dollar, which has already dropped substantially during the period in which the precious metal has soared. What's clear is that the gold rally has not been driven by speculation. Traders who held more than 302,000 long contracts have substantially reduced their exposure over the past 12 months. Bullish bets — slashed before the recent slump — currently stand at 206,000 contracts. If the rise has not been driven by speculation then its source could have much more significant ramifications, especially if it relates to the rebalancing of central bank reserves. Those reserves exceed $13 trillion, of which 57% are held in dollars. Should there be a switch — even a small one — the dollar could fall substantially, with much less chance of a recovery.

Unlike speculators, who must cover shorts, investors often hold assets for a long time.

China, which has held more than $3 trillion of foreign currencies since the dollar began to rise in 2011, is a major investor and may have been rattled by the dollar's slump in 2022. At that point, gold — then surging toward $5,600/oz this year — was close to $1,600/oz.

Since Donald Trump's tariff blitz began following his return to office in January 2025, the dollar has tumbled while gold has doubled in value. The simultaneous rise in China's FX reserves — which should have been negatively affected by the dollar's decline — may indicate that the balance of reserves is being altered.

China has the largest reserves, but all the nations holding dollars that will be negatively affected by its drop may begin to change the structure of their holdings of foreign currencies. Those that may be more inclined to change, such as BRICS nations and Saudi Arabia, hold roughly $5.7 trillion in their reserves.
Gold and betting


Gold, China FX reserves and the US dollar


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of copper miners rise premarket, tracking price of the red metal [MET/L]

• Benchmark three-month copper up 3.4% at $13,323 a metric ton following news that China plans to boost stockpiles of copper and as risk sentiment rekindled among global investors

• Shares of global mining giants Rio Tinto and BHP Group up 2.3% and 2% respectively

• Copper miners Southern Copper climb 4.2% and Freeport-McMoRan rise 4%

• Canada's Hudbay Minerals , up 5.5% and ERO Copper , climbs 4.65%
(Reporting by Varun Sahay in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY has risen from 155.28 to hit 155.73, on Tuesday, EBS data shows

• Japan PM's idle yen comments send finance bureaucrats scrambling

• Fin Min defends PM's comments on benefits of weak yen

• Despite that latest recovery, spot remains stuck within the cloud that spans 153.64-156.10

• *

Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 45.5 pip range thus far Tuesday; 1.3706 = intra-day high

• 1.3706 is also the highest level since Monday's 1.3625 one-week low

• Risk-sensitive pound benefits from global stock gains; Nikkei up 3.9%

• EUR/GBP hit five-month low of 0.8624 in Asia after Monday close below 200DMA

• U.S. January jobs report will be delayed because of partial government shutdown

• Dollar risk premium is rebuilding. BoE rate hold expected on Thursday

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Gold dived $1200/oz almost instantaneously purging weaker bets on a rise

• While large, the size of the drop was still smaller than prior 2026 rise

• Traders sold ahead of the sell-off, reducing an already modest bullish wager

• Without the restraint of larger speculation gold is freer to rise further

• The source of demand fuelling the gold rally is not speculative

• If gold' rise is due to reverse rebalancing, the USD will suffer

• The next targets for gold are $5746/oz and $6111/oz

•
Gold and the dollar index


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Natural gas and LNG prices have tumbled after spiking due to contract changes

• Cheaper gas prices support EUR/USD as the eurozone imports, while U.S. exports

• EUR/USD has recently pulled back from the new 1.2084 peak of 2025-2026 bull run

• The drop in gas prices will provide support, helping limit size of the correction

• Monday's 1.1776 low was just shy 61.8% of gains seen in 2026 which is 1.1768

• Following rise from Mon's low has seen EUR/USD reach 1.1820

• Strong chance for a higher foundation (above Jan's 1.1572 low) to launch next rally

•
EURUSD and gas


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/15.00 GMT on Tuesday February 3

• EUR/USD: 1.1745-50 (1.1BLN), 1.1785-90 (1.2BLN), 1.1800-05 (1.1BLN)

• 1.1820 (461M), 1.1850 (3.9BLN), 1.1865-75 (1.1BLN), 1.1890-1.1900 (1.3BLN)

• EUR/CHF:0.9155 (280M). AUD/USD:0.6900-05 (774M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3740 (408M), 1.3785 (203M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3590-1.3600 (912M), 1.3780 (206M)

• USD/JPY: 155.00 (278M), 155.75-80 (1.1BLN)

• FX options wrap - FX volatility and USD put premiums revert lower (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Australian gold stocks rise as much as 4%, their biggest intraday gain since January 23

• Gold rebounds more than 2% on Tuesday after a sharp selloff triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next U.S. Federal Reserve chair [GOL/]

• Index majors Evolution Mining , Northern Star Resources and Ramelius Resources rise between 1.5% and 4.3%

• Sub-index up 5.5% so far this year
(Reporting by Keshav Singh Chundawat in Bengaluru)

• Australian silver miners climb as silver prices gain nearly 6% earlier in the day, rebounding from a 31.7% slump recorded in the previous two sessions

• South32 , who owns the Cannington mine - one of the world's largest producers of silver, gains as much as 3.2%

• Shares of Sun Silver climb 1.3%

• S32 stock up 15.6% in January

(Reporting by Nichiket Sunil in Bengaluru)

• USD/HKD hovers at 7.8110, tad higher than Mon close 7.8104

• Supported, with dip-buying expected around 200 DMA 7.8044

• Psych barrier 7.8000 likely to attract more bids, eyeing DXY rebound

• But USD a tad shaky for now as gold prices attempt to bounce, last +2.2%

• China's SSEC +0.1%, recovery fizzling, while Hang Seng -0.4%

• Most other Asia stocks performing better after US PMI beat
HKD


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/THB opens lower, bounce in gold off lows and lower oil caps rally

• Pair traded 31.51-31.78 range overnight, closed at 31.51 in NY, last 31.47

• Supports at 31.40, 31.20 intraday, resistance at 31.60, 31.80

• Strong US data (economy still resilient), higher DXY to underpin

• Surge in Yuan likely to curb selling in THB intraday too

• Related - US stocks lower, silver and oil extend losses

• Gold recovers further from sell-off yesterday, last +3.26% to $4815/oz
THB

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• AUD/USD advances 0.3% with RBA expected to hike OCR 25 bps later Tue

• AU Dec building approvals -14.9% m/m, Reuters poll consensus -6.0%

• Partial U.S. government shutdown to delay Jan's employment report due Fri

• DXY remains bid in wake of Warsh Fed nomination and buoyant U.S. data

• AUD activity restrained pre-RBA, any indication of OCR bias highly impactful

• Range Asia 0.69465-67, support 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY to as high as 155.79 EBS overnight before steadying

• Asia so far 155.43-63 as some longs booked profits

• Higher US yields on back of Warsh Fed appointment had an impact

• Also Takaichi yen comments despite government efforts to dilute impact

• FinMin Katayama jaw-boning early today to help quell impact

• Also JGB-US Treasury rate differentials ratchet down again, yen supportive?

• USD/JPY for now ensconced in still ascending 163.64-156.10 daily Ichi cloud

• Resistance from area of flat tenkan and kijun at 155.66 and 155.77

• Both levels pierced briefly overnight on move to 155.79

• Support from 155.17 hourly kijun, descending 200-HMA 154.91, cloud 154.09-76

• Massive $1.2 bln in option expiries today between 155.75-80, to help cap?

• Related comments , , also

• US markets , , ,

• Also , , Katayama-speak ,

• On US econ/bks/et al , , ,

• On Fed , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


JGB-US Treasury 10-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research discusses NZD positioning and technical outlook.

"The NZD/USD has benefitted from the rally in commodities, briefly touching near 0.61 before retreating. CFTC data suggest positioning on the NZD has shifted dramatically in recent weeks, moving sharply away from net short positions as the currency rallied. Positioning is now more neutral, suggesting the NZD can rise as there is room for long positions to be added," ANZ notes. 

We retain our positive view of the NZD as data reinforces the view that economic recovery is underway. Our view is that the RBNZ will hike at its December 2026 meeting.  Technically, the 14-day RSI is in overbought territory, which signals caution to further upside. In case there is a downside risk event, support lies at 0.59 (26 January high) and at 0.587 (200-dma)," ANZ adds.

• EUR/USD -0.6% from Mon 1.187475 high as U.S. sentiment takes positive swing

• U.S. Jan ISM manufacturing PMI 52.6, highest since Aug 2022 (poll 48.5)

• EUR needs fresh catalyst to bookend the sharp pullback post-Jan month end

• Euro zone PMIs, consumer inflation & producer price data due Wed

• ECB policy rate decision Thur, Reuters poll consensus: no change

• Range Asia 1.1782-9425, support 1.1572 1.1490, resistance 1.2084 1.21475
EUR Weekly 52-WMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)