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Mar 23 - 12:12 AM
AUD/USD - Bounces, But Not Likely To Go Far
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 22 - 10:10 PM
  • Aussie bounces off early lows as FX settles, Asia stocks still under the gun
  • From early low at 0.7686, AUD/USD up to 0.7715 high, USD/JPY back to 105
  • Pullback unlikely to have legs with clear risk-off environment in force
  • 0.7740 is the 50% retracement of Thus/Fri move and likely to cap, if seen
  • Downside targets still remain of 76.4 Fibo of 0.7651, long term t/l @ 0.7593
  • AUD/JPY bounces from 80.45 to 80.95, some talk of PKO involvement in USD/JPY

AUD daily: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 22 - 11:00 PM
GBP/USD - Holds Support On Strong Data, Split BOE Vote
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 22 - 08:20 PM
  • GBP/USD opens 0.29% lower on broad USD strength o/n, ticks a little higher
  • GBP held up well on strong data and split BOE vote nL8N1R42JZ nU8N1A4002
  • Volatile day as risk-off dominates, GBP/USD hits 1.4220 on above factors
  • Set up still bullish, but sterling sidelined to a degree with focus on risk
  • Close above 76.4 Fibo at 1.4196 targets 2018 high at 1.4346
  • Support at Mon/Tues highs of 1.4066/88, confirmed on o/n pullback

GBP daily: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 22 - 09:48 PM
AUD/USD Taken Down By Fresh AUD/JPY Selling
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 22 - 07:25 PM
  • AUD/USD hits a low 0.7686 on fresh risk-off AUD/JPY selling
  • AUD/JPY closed in NY down 1.66% as stocks routed on US China tariffs
  • AUD/JPY closed below the key 81.40/50 level, the 50% retrace and 2017 low
  • The close below 81.40 now targets the 61.8 Fibo at 79.30
  • Any rallies back towards 81.40 are now a selling opportunity
  • Recent selling of USD/JPY & AUD/JPY as Trump ousts Nat Sec Adviser McMaster

AUDJPY weekly: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 22 - 08:36 PM
EUR/USD - Ratchets Lower, Option Expiries To Support Friday
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 22 - 06:15 PM
  • EUR/USD post-Fed rally wanes as EZ data disappoints nL9N1OS01K
  • Remains in broad 1.2250-1.2450 range, downside protected by option expiries
  • EUR 2.3bln 1.2250 and 2bln 1.2300 expiries for NY cut Friday nL1N1R40R8
  • EUR/JPY sales to limit rallies, pair nears key support at 129.35
  • China's reaction to Trump signing tariffs memorandum awaited nL1N1R420R
  • Asia to trade between support at 1.2275-80 and resistance at 1.2325-30

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 22 - 05:00 PM
GBP: BoE Heading For A Hike In May & Another One In Nov - Danske
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 22 - 03:39 PM

Danske Research discusses its reaction to today's BoE rate decision and minutes.

"We still believe the BoE is heading for a May hike and we also believe another hike in November is likely, which is more than the one BoE hike forecast by consensus. As we argued back in February after the last meeting, the BoE seems to have launched a regular hiking cycle and this meeting has not changed our view Markets have priced in approximately 42bp hikes this year, so we are more hawkish than both other houses and market pricing.

Although the Brexit transition deal is, other things being equal, positive news, it is in our view not a game-changer for EUR/GBP in the short-run and we forecast 0.87 in 3M," Danske argues. 

Danske Research
Mar 22 - 03:48 PM
USD/JPY - Iffy Rise On As-Expected U.S. Trade Moves
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 22 - 12:45 PM
  • USD/JPY off lows; U.S. trade actions about as expected nW1N1PG01N
  • Pair well supported by JP corporate bids above 105.24 '18 low & 105
  • Bounce may be yet another selling opportunity if key hurdles hold
  • Japan not yet excluded from metals tariffs, may hit Nikkei, JPY
  • Kijun & 30-DMA at 106.58/68 last need to be cleared for a reversal
  • US stocks & Tsy yields up from day's big drops but remain risk-off

Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 22 - 02:36 PM
EUR/USD - Boosted As Risk Gains After Tariff News
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 22 - 12:40 PM
  • Expected tariff news hits wires and risk sentiment shifts up
  • Stocks & UST yields lift while JPY weakens, DE-US yield spreads tighten
  • EUR/JPY bounces sharply, nears 130.35 resistance as yen softens
  • EUR/USD follows, pair back above 10, 21 & 55-DSMAs and daily cloud top
  • Large doji candle forms on daily chart, suggests indecision
  • Close above t-l off Feb high & March 14 high will up bull sentiment

chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 22 - 01:24 PM
GBP: BoE Did Nothing To Dissuade The Marker From A May Hike; Dips A Buys - BofAML
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 22 - 11:30 AM

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research discusses its reaction to today's BoE rate decision and minutes, and maintains the view that dips in GBP post-BoE should provide a strategic buying opportunity.

"The Bank of England's (BoE) post-policy meeting statement today was a curious affair. The top line take-away has to be that there is nothing to dissuade the market from its view that a May hike is highly likely. That was the burden of proof today.

And while the BoE kept rates on hold two rate setters voting for a hike just four months after the last one speaks volumes. So much for the BoE's mantra of "gradual and limited"," BofAML argues.

BofA Merrill Lynch Research
Mar 22 - 12:12 PM
AUD/USD - COMMENT-AUD/USD At Risk As US China Tariff News Looms
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 22 - 10:25 AM

Heightened risk aversion is hammering AUD/USD ahead of today's U.S. China tariffs announcement, which could decide the Aussie's near-term direction.
AUD/USD has erased yesterday's post-Fed gains and was also weighed down by a rise in Australia's unemployment rate and a downside miss to employment forecasts.
Trepidation ahead of the Trump administration's 12:30 ET announcement is augmented by a WSJ report stating the U.S. is expected to sue China at the WTO over trade law violations.
Australia's reliance on commodities exports sets the stakes high for AUD in the event of any U.S.-China trade war, leading to sales of the currency across the board.
AUD/JPY hit a new trend low and AUD/USD is threatening the knee-jerk low it set after Wednesday's Fed statement.
An inverted hammer is forming on daily charts after the pair failed to hold near the 10 and 21-Day SMAs.
A long upper wick is in place on the monthly candle and sliding RSIs give bears momentum.
A break of yesterday's low will increase bear sentiment and put 0.7625/55 support in play.
Long-term trend line support near 0.7605 is eyed thereafter.
A trend-line break suggests a much deeper AUD/USD decline is due.

chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 22 - 11:00 AM
GBP/USD: 3 Reasons To Stay Structurally Bullish - BTMU
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 22 - 09:10 AM

BTMU Research discusses GBP/USD outlook, and maintains its structural bullish view, highlighting 3 reasons that have confirmed this bullish view this week.

"The good news just keeps on rolling in for the pound this week. Firstly, the EU and UK have made important progress in Brexit talks which has helped to further reduce the likelihood of a more disorderly “No Deal” Brexit outcome. Secondly, there has been clearer evidence that the pound-induced spike in inflation which has weighed on consumer spending over the last year or so is now reversing. Thirdly, there has been further encouraging evidence that the UK labour continues to go from strength to strength," BTMU argues. 

"Overall, we continue to see scope for the pound to strengthen further in the year ahead as widespread pessimism over outlook for the UK economy in the coming years should continue to be challenged," BTMU concludes. 

BTMU Research
Mar 22 - 09:48 AM
EUR/USD: 1.2150-1.2450 Range Still Intact; Likely To Wait Some Time For Any New Direction - SocGen
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 22 - 08:30 AM
Societe Generale Cross Asset Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and thinks that the recent range of 1.2150-1.2450 seems to play out for some time until we get some triggers for a new direction. Medium-to-long term, SocGen remains structurally bullish EUR/USD seeing the pair eventually heading towards 1.30. 
"The last decade’s highs in EUR/USD were driven by Trichet’s 2008 hike, the Fed’s reaction to the crisis in 2009, the Greek crisis in 2010, the ECB’s 2010 hike (Trichet again, wrong move again), and then the Draghi era - a spike thanks to ‘whatever it takes’, a slide thanks to QE/negative rates and the spike last year as he pointed us towards tapering.
Now, with PMIs confirming softer growth and an absence of inflation, we are likely to have to wait some time for any new direction. this EUR/USD 1.2150-1.2450 range is beginning to feel like a soft old armchair - hard to get out of," SocGen argues. 
Société Générale Research
Mar 22 - 08:36 AM
EUR/USD Longs Should Worry About A Weaker EUR/JPY
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 22 - 06:25 AM
  • EUR/JPY down 0.5% today after poor EZ PMI and with stocks soft
  • Composite PMI lowest since Jan 2017, DJI closed down 0.18, E-mini down 0.6%
  • EUR/USD level little threat to a bullish market but EUR/JPY risks breakdown
  • 55-WMA @ 119.09 is a major pivot for the long-term trend
  • Pair above 55-WMA since late April 2017. Rally since ran to 17 yen
  • March 5 low 129.35. Much weaker recovery follows Mar 19 low at 129.63

EUR/JPY weekly Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 22 - 07:24 AM
EUR/USD - Sizeable Dip For EZ PMI But A Limited EUR/USD Drop
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 22 - 05:15 AM
  • EZ and German data a fair bit softer than expected but little reaction
  • EUR/USD off 1.2388 high to 1.2360 in advance German PMI data
  • German composite PMI slows to 55.4 from 57.6 (57.0 f/c) nL9N1OS01J
  • IFO slows to 114.7 in March from 11.4 (114.8 f/c) nS8N1PA01Z
  • EZ composite PMI 55.3 in March from 57.1 and versus 56.7 f/c nL9N1OS01K
  • EUR/USD 1.2347 after all data. Asia low 1.2338. 21/DMA/cloud top 1.2296/99

German composite PMI Click here

EZ composite PMI Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 22 - 06:12 AM
EUR/USD - Euro's Safer Asset Status Underpinning EUR/USD
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 22 - 03:55 AM
  • EUR/USD 1.2338-69 in Asia then higher to 1.2382 in early Europe
  • Boosted to 1.2350 in NA despite Fed's tougher stance nW1N1PG01F
  • Dollar since weighed by heightened worries about U.S. trade war nL3N1R41MQ
  • Less concern reflected in stocks Nikkei +1%, SSEC -0.5%
  • EUR's safer asset status and positive momentum suggest risks lie higher
  • Resistance at Mar 13/14 high 1.2408/13 peaks and Mar 7/8 highs 1.24646/47

EUR/USD daily Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 22 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - Bulls Fight Back But Now Need To Overcome Major TL
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 22 - 03:15 AM
  • EUR/USD bulls stage fight back to grapple with the major falling TL
  • Falling TL is currently at 1.2365 and was taken off the Feb 16 1.2556 high
  • Bulls need a daily close above the TL to build on impressive recovery
  • We remain long at 1.2290 and have raised our trailing stop to 1.2320
  • Our target remains at 1.2390 just below the 1.2400 psychological level
  • Fourteen-day momentum remains positive, reinforcing the upside potential

EUR/USD Trader:

Daily Fibo Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 22 - 03:48 AM
USD/JPY - Rebound To As High As 105.96 On Short-Covering
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 22 - 02:25 AM
  • Short-covering pushed USD/JPY to as high as 105.96 short while ago.
  • From a low of 105.58 into the Tokyo fix, spec covering met by few offers.
  • Option expiries at 105.75-80 magnet for short while, more 106.00-20.
  • Total USD825 mln 105.75-80, 912 mln between 106.00-20., 106.50 740 mln too.
  • Market likely heavy again from around 106.00.
  • 100-HMA above at 106.11, 55-HMA at 106.25, spike high yesterday 106.64.

USD/JPY: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 22 - 02:36 AM
USD/JPY - Back To Limbo, Option Expiries A Magnet
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 22 - 01:05 AM
  • Spec and other USD/JPY sales confined to AM session, since in limbo.
  • With no fresh news, USD825 mln in option expiries at 105.75-80 magnet.
  • USD/JPY 105.68-76 this afternoon, broader Asia daily range 105.58-106.08.
  • US yields slightly off, Treasury 10s @2.868%, Nikkei bid, +0.6%.
  • Expectations now for three rather than four Fed hikes this year.
  • Specter of US-China trade war likely to keep USD/JPY bias down nL1N1R402T.

USD/JPY: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 22 - 01:24 AM
GBP/USD: BoE To Stay Hawkish On Thurs, Dips A Buy On Any Dovish Outcome - BofAML
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 21 - 04:44 PM

Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research discusses GBP outlook, going into the BoE meeting on Thursday.

"We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to stay hawkish at Thursday's policy meeting. We still assume the BoE will hike rates in May and it will continue to signal that. We expect a 9-0 vote to keep rates on hold, though there is a chance of a vote or two for hikes. This call has nothing to do with the data, which have disappointed," BofAML argues. 


From a strategy perspective, we think markets are focused on their views on the labour markets. In our view, any disappointment from a dovish MPC would present a buying opportunity," BofAML advises. 

BofA Merrill Lynch Research
Mar 22 - 12:12 AM
EUR/GBP - Blips Up As Asia Buys The Euro
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 21 - 10:10 PM
  • EUR/GBP blips higher on strong euro buying early in the Asian session
  • Cross still on track for a test of major support at 0.8687/94
  • Losses extended Weds on strong UK jobs data nL8N1R3247
  • Initial resistance to be found at the Mon/Tues lows at 0.8745
  • S/t MAs trend lower, supporting further losses in the cross

EURGBP daily Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Mar 21 - 11:00 PM
USD/JPY - Bears Active But Downside Limited So Far
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 21 - 08:50 PM
  • USD/JPY off from 106.09 early high to 105.67, spec bears active.
  • Bids from @105.85 though, slowing aggression to downside.
  • Option expiries nearby too - total USD825 mln 105.75-80, magnet later?
  • Bids trail down to 105.24 low March 2, multiple daily lows ahead.
  • Recent steadiness above 105.00 option KOs also leading to investor bids.
  • Steady US yields supportive for now after volatility o/n, Nikkei in black.

USD/JPY: Click here

Yield on US Treasury 10s: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
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