• U.S.-listed shares of silver miners rise premarket, tracking prices of the white metal [GOL/]

• Spot silver up 1.9% to $78.15 per ounce

• Prices rise as lower oil prices, following a U.S. extension of a ceasefire with Iran, ease fears of an inflation spike and prolonged high interest rates

• Shares of miners Hecla Mining and Coeur Mining

gain ~4% each

• Canadian miner Endeavour Silver and Silvercorp Metals advance 4% and ~3% respectively

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust each advance 3.3%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD has traded a 29 pip range thus far Wednesday; 0.7147-0.7176

• Those parameters are within Tuesday's 0.7131-0.7185 range

• Trump declares ceasefire extension with peace talks in doubt

• Fed chair nominee Warsh says he made no rate-cut promises to Trump

• AUD/NZD down to 1-week low, 1.2107, as kiwi continues to benefit from NZ CPI data

• Offers pre-1.22 have capped AUD/NZD at 13-year highs through April-to-date

AUDNZD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Wednesday 22 April

• EUR/USD: 1.1595-05 (1.25BLN), 1.1625 (557M), 1.1700 (518M)

• 1.1715-25 (553M), 1.1740-50 (1.1BLN), 1.1760-70 (2.23BLN), 1.1775-80 (609M)

• 1.1790-95 (1.34BLN), 1.1800-05 (2.1BLN), 1.1825-30 (362M), 1.1850 (2.54BLN)

• 1.1870-80 (909M), 1.1890-00 (405M)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable remains on 1.35 handle after UK CPI comes in as expected; up 3.3% YY

• 1.3502-1.3533 was Asian session range. 1.3475-1.3546 was Tuesday range

• BoE is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.75% next week (April 30)

• UK PMQs at 1100-1130 GMT, as pressure increases on Starmer

• Trump declares Iran ceasefire extension with peace talks in doubt

• Fed chief nominee Warsh says he made no rate-cut promises to Trump

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY off from an early high of 159.45 to 159.11 EBS in PM Tokyo trade

• Thin markets to blame for move, maybe optimism on US-Iran talks

• Downside likely limited however with dip-buy interest still

• Japanese importers in mix though flows likely light into London fix

• Massive $4.7 bln in option expiries today on 158 likely supportive

• Spot to area of 200-HMA at 159.09, 100-HMA below at 159.00

• Ascending hourly Ichimoku cloud too between 158.56-85

• Related comment , also ,
USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Wed as traders calibrate U.S.-Iran news & hawkish RBA bias

• Futures pricing currently implies 74% probability of May RBA rate hike

• RBA officials Hunter & Plumb appear before Senate productivity committee Wed

• AUD break above 0.7250-85 resistance zone would spur next leg higher

• Vance scraps Pakistan trip; Trump makes Iran ceasefire open-ended

• Iran keeps Strait of Hormuz shut, classifies U.S. naval blockade hostile

• AU/U.S. Apr S&P PMIs, U.S. initial jobless claims (poll 210k) all due Thur

• Range Asia 0.7147-635, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

April 22 (Reuters) - USD/JPY remains trapped in a core 158.00-160.00 range, capped by the threat of Japanese FX intervention while Middle East uncertainties, high energy prices and USD haven demand limit the downside. Only a Bank of Japan rate hike may spur a meaningful JPY rally, perhaps to the 155 area or lower. A surprise move by the BOJ at the April 27-28 policy meeting would go a long way in capping USD/JPY and even sending it lower into the upcoming Japanese "Golden Week" holidays. However, this seems a stretch with the probability of a hike next week currently down to 9% according to Totan Research/ICAP. The probability of a June move has risen to 62%. Despite BOJ and Ministry of Finance misgivings over the inflationary effects of the weak yen, the market sees BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and most on the Policy Board as cautious about the impact of Middle East developments on the economy amid elevated fears over a hit to growth. Ceteris paribus, USD/JPY looks set to remain range-bound with Japanese importers continuing to buy dips and exporters selling into rallies. Related past comments , , .
USD/JPY:


Japan's real exchange rate:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Sonali Desai)

• AUD/USD flat Wed, but +3.8% mtd fuelled by growing hawkish RBA sentiment

• RBA officials Hunter & Plumb appear before Senate productivity committee Wed

• AUD break above 0.7250-85 resistance zone would trigger next leg higher

• Vance drops Pakistan trip; Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely

• Iran keeps Strait of Hormuz shut, brands U.S. naval blockade hostile

• AU & U.S. Apr S&P PMIs, U.S. initial jobless claims (poll 210k) due Thur

• Range Asia 0.7147-635, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD +0.2% Wed as markets calibrate latest U.S.-Iran developments

• Pair finding buyers in wake of Tue's hotter than anticipated Q1 CPI update

• Futures market pricing implies 51.2% chance of May RBNZ rate hike

• Vance cancels Pakistan trip, Trump indefinitely extends Iran ceasefire

• Iran says Hormuz to remain closed, U.S. naval blockade is act of hostility

• NZD targeting 0.5965 resistance, break above will accelerate bullish run

• U.S. Mar retail sales +1.7% m/m (poll +1.4%), Apr S&P flash PMIs due Thur

• Range NZ 0.58725-0.59045, support 0.5680 0.5580, resistance 0.5964 0.6012
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY rallied yesterday to 159.64, Asia so far today 159.26-45 EBS

• Renewed concerns over US-Iran talks, risk off mood again

• Iran said current ceasefire extension US ploy to buy time before attacks

• USD bid as US yields trade higher but JGB-US Tsy differentials in stasis

• USD/JPY back near top of recent, core 158-160 range, FX intervention threat

• Support from 159.21 hourly Ichimoku kijun, 200/100-HMAs 159.08/158.97

• Japanese importer bids eyed back towards 159.00, exporters pre-160.00

• In options, $626 mln expiries today at 160.00, 158.00-159.00 $4.7 bln+

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on US-Iran ,

• US markets , , ,

• On US economy , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


Yield on US Treasury 2s:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.5% from Tue 0.7185 high as oil rises & gold slips on Iran news

• Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely but leaves naval blockade in situ

• Iran considers blockade continued hostility, Strait of Hormuz fully closed

• Fed nominee Warsh champions independence, made no rate cut promises to Trump

• AUD next target 0.7250-85 resistance, but needs fresh news flow

• RBA officials Hunter & Plumb appear before Senate productivity committee Wed

• U.S. Mar retail sales +1.7% m/m (poll +1.4%); Apr S&P flash PMIs due Thur

• Overnight range 0.71305-85, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Nomura maintains a long EUR/GBP position in its FX recommendation portfolio.

"We raise the conviction level on this trade, as we see increasing political challenges in the weeks ahead. The latest revelations over the appointment of former US Ambassador Peter Mandelson have put PM Keir Starmer under even more pressure ahead of the local elections on 7 May, when the Labour party is likely to suffer sizable losses based on recent polling. If Starmer is ousted, a new leader in unlikely to be seen as being as market friendly as the current PM, which could bring fiscal sustainability risks into focus, especially with the recent rise in inflation and back-end interest rates are also weighing on debt sustainability calculations," Nomura notes.

"Cyclically, we see recent ECB and BoE comments as differing somewhat, and while a hike on 30 April remains unlikely from either central bank, the ECB seems much closer to pulling the trigger than the BOE...We continue to see a move towards 0.90 in the months ahead," Nomura adds.

• GBP$ soft in NorAm afternoon, -0.3% at 1.3495; Tuesday range 1.3546-1.3476

• For now, Monday's flash low at 1.3475 still supports; geopol remains key focus

• US-Iran ceasefire deadline expires Wednesday eve in U.S. heightens tension

• Iran yet to decide on whether to attend talks as ceasefire deadline ticks down

• UK econ a headwind as well as UK inflation persists, growth underwhelms

• Futures price 60% odds for UK hike in June, perhaps a 2nd by YE; Fed steady in 2026

• GBP$ supt 1.3475 Mon low, 1.3456 rising 100-DMA, 1.3431 38.2% of 1.3160-1.3599

• Res 1.3543/46 Mon/Tues highs, 1.3599 2-mos high Apr 17, 1.3605 upper 30-d Bolli

GBP$ Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1760, pair hit 1.1775 early on some USD weakness

• EUR/USD selling then took hold as USD, US yields , USD/CNH rallied

• Those rallies were driven by concerns the deadline for Iran could be missed

• Stocks, gold, silver moved downward to help reinforce the bid for the USD

• EUR/USD fell below the 10-DMA, daily cloud top; hit a 6-session low of 1.1720

• Risk improved a bit, EUR/USD bounced, neared 1.1750 late, was down -0.40%

• Falling daily RSI, move below 10-DMA & cloud top are concerns for bulls

• Rising monthly RSI, pairs hold above the 200-DMA give bulls some comfort
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Corrects rate to 0.7120 in line6)

• NY opened near 0.7160 after 0.7145 traded in Europe, rally initially extended

• Upbeat risk sentiment help rally the pair to 0.7185, sellers emerged however

• Risk that the ceasefire deadline will be missed allowed risk-off to emerge

• USD, US yields rallied sharply, USD/CNH rallied up to 6.8321

• Gold , silver , stocks all fell, helped underpin the USD

• AUD/USD broke Europe's low, neared the rising 10-DMA, traded to 0.7120

• A slight bounce for riskier assets helped AUD/USD sit near 0.7155 late

• Pair was down -0.34% in NY's afternoon but still within the Friday-Monday trading range

• Rising monthly RSI, pair's hold above the daily cloud, many DMAs are bull signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research previews next week's April BoC policy meeting.

"We expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to leave its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% on April 29 and to remain on hold through year‑end as it evaluates incoming economic data and monitors developments surrounding the Iran conflict and the USMCA review advances. We expect the BoC to look through higher headline inflation as core inflation seems contained. Moreover, with a weak beginning of the year, a negative output gap and a soft labor market, we see arguments against potential hikes," BofA notes.

"We expect forward guidance to acknowledge these risks and adopt a cautious tone, while continuing to emphasize flexibility and adaptability, as the effects of higher oil prices become clearer and the USMCA review advances," BofA adds.

• Cable has traded on a 1.35 handle since the NY open; 1.3528 is session high

• 1.3546 was early London intra-day high, before drop to 1.3484

• Warsh's path to Fed chief job entangled ahead of Senate confirmation hearing

• UK CPI data due Wednesday; 3.3% expected. BoE rate hold expected on April 30

• New testimony raises pressure on UK PM Starmer over choice of envoy to U.S.

• Angela Rayner is favourite to be next Labour leader. UK local elections May 7

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY grinding within a 158-160 range, which looks likely to continue

• Falling market vol favours carry trades (JPY negative)

• But 160 acts as a psychological ceiling given potential intervention risk

• Though there are doubts whether 160-162 is the real line in the sand

• Price action nowhere near hitting the volatility threshold to trigger MoF action

• For now, markets lack a catalyst to break from this holding pattern

• Eyes stay on geopolitics but market sensitivity has dwindled
USDJPY daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

ANZ Research maintains a cautious bias on EUR/USD in the near-term.

"The EUR’s sensitivity to oil prices on a terms-of-trade basis adds to our caution, particularly as we expect elevated energy prices to persist. We have revised up our outlook for Brent crude and expect prices to remain above USD90/bbl for the remainder of the year, which should cap sustained EUR/USD rallies," ANZ notes.

"Near-term resistance is likely to be seen around 1.1850, with upside beyond this likely difficult to sustain without a more durable easing in geopolitical tensions. This caution has been reflected in CFTC non-commercial positioning data, which have sharply shifted to net-short recently, though is far from stretched, with potential for further shorts to be added," ANZ adds.

JP Morgan maintains a medium-term bearish bias on JPY.

"We think that higher energy prices amid heightened Middle East tensions would increase the downside pressure on JPY through various channels," JPM notes.

"Given that, we maintain our medium- to long-term bearish view on the JPY and keep our USD/JPY year-end target unchanged at 164. First, as Japan is highly dependent on imported energy, rising energy prices are likely to increase import costs and widen the trade deficit, and con- cerns over these developments could trigger JPY selling. Second, the recent rise in energy prices has lifted inflation concerns, pushing central banks toward a more hawkish stance and leading markets to price in further rate hikes, while expectations for BoJ rate hikes have not risen much," JPM adds.

• Cable elicited support pre-1.3482 after extending south from 1.3546

• 1.3482 was Monday's early London low (1.3475 was one-week low in Asia Monday)

• 1.3546 was knee-jerk high on sub-5% UK jobless rate surprise (at 0600 GMT)

• Robbins describes pressure from UK PM's office, deepening Mandelson row

• U.S. March retail sales data due at 1230 GMT; increase of 1.4% expected

• Fed chief nominee Warsh's Senate confirmation hearing starts at 1400 GMT

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of silver miners fall premarket, tracking prices of the white metal [GOL/]

• Spot silver down 1.4% at $78.81/ounce

• Prices fall weighed down by a firm US dollar as lingering uncertainty over U.S.-Iran peace talks kept investors cautious, while they also looked forward to a Senate confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh

• Shares of miners Hecla and Coeur both down ~1%

• Canadian miner Endeavour Silver dips 1.4%

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust both inch down 1.1%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY has risen from 158.78 to 159.26, on Tuesday, according to EBS data

• There is a good chance USD/JPY will eventually climb to retest 160

• Traders see the 160 level as the line in the sand for intervention

• Multiple failures to close below the broken 158.49 Fibo show bears are now trapped

• 158.49 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 152.10-160.47 2026 (EBS) rise

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is well below +0.5 (relationship broken)

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)