• USD/JPY has risen from 158.78 to 159.26, on Tuesday, according to EBS data

• There is a good chance USD/JPY will eventually climb to retest 160

• Traders see the 160 level as the line in the sand for intervention

• Multiple failures to close below the broken 158.49 Fibo show bears are now trapped

• 158.49 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 152.10-160.47 2026 (EBS) rise

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is well below +0.5 (relationship broken)

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

April 21 (Reuters) - The lack of noise from Labour Party lawmakers in Britain's Parliament during Keir Starmer's 140-minute grilling over Peter Mandelson on Monday is ominous for the prime minister and the pound.

With Welsh Parliament, Scottish Parliament and English local elections looming on May 7, things could soon go from bad to worse for Starmer. Disastrous May election results for Labour could spur a leadership challenge against Starmer, which could hurt sterling on fear of what comes next should he be ousted.

Just as the pound plummeted during the ill-fated reign of Liz Truss after the Tories chose her to succeed Boris Johnson as PM in September 2022, so it might again if Starmer exits Downing Street and his successor scares the bond market.

Whereas a centrist such as Wes Streeting, Shabana Mahmood or John Healey could be well received by the gilt market and sterling should they enter Number 10, a soft-left successor like Angela Rayner, Andy Burnham or Ed Miliband might spook investors.

Related:
GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD 1.1772-91 EBS range on Tuesday ahead Wed's planned peace talks

• Pair well within Friday's 1.1849 high and Monday's 1.1729 low

• EUR/USD rose 1.0125 to 1.2084 fell to 1.1409 and rallied to 1.1849

• Big rise, modest retreat followed by swift gains - a very bullish situation

• Traders long of 23bln euros have pared bets to 3.2 billion euros

• Less to restrain a likely extension of the uptrend

• An escalation of the mid-east conflict risks a deeper correction

•
EURUSD and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY's multiple failures by to close below the broken 158.49 Fibo show bears are trapped

• 158.49 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 152.10-160.47 2026 (EBS) rise

• Spot has seen a steady 158.78-159.00 range, on Tuesday, according to EBS data

• There is a good chance USD/JPY will eventually climb to retest the 160 psychological level

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is well below +0.5 (relationship broken)

• Fin Min Katayama: Continue to closely monitor financial markets, will take measures if needed

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(corrects level in 4th bullet)

• Cable jumped to 1.3546 as the pound elicited a knee-jerk boost from UK data

• ILO jobless rate 4.9% vs 5.2% median estimate; UK pay growth higher than expected

• 1.3546 is 2.5 pips beyond Monday's high (1.35345 was Asia high, pre-UK data)

• Retreat from 1.3546 based 3.5 pips shy of 1.3515 (Asian session low)

• UK PM Starmer seeks to deflect blame over Mandelson appointment

• Sacked UK Foreign Office official Robbins to address MPs from 0800 GMT

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.15% Tue as traders ponder unconfirmed Middle East peace talks

• Pakistan optimistic despite chance Iran may still not participate

• Ceasefire deadline approaching as U.S. VP Vance heads to Pakistan

• AUD next target 0.7250-85 resistance, but needs favourable news flow

• U.S. Mar retail sales due Tue; Apr S&P flash PMIs due Thur

• Range Asia 0.71674-82, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD down 0.1% in cautious Asia with all eyes on possible U.S.-Iran talks

• Vance to travel to Pakistan on Tuesday for Iran talks, Axios reports

• Renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, looming ceasefire deadline keep investors wary

• UK politics back in focus; PM Starmer seeks to deflect blame over Mandelson

• UK data also key; Feb employment, earnings due Tue, Mar inflation due Wed

• Senate confirmation hearing for Fed nominee Kevin Warsh awaited Tuesday

• Asia range 1.3521-1.35345; support 1.3475, 1.3450, resistance 1.3550, 1.3600

• Monday range 1.3475-1.35435
UK unemployment rate and wage growth:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD flat Tue as markets remain wary of U.S.-Iran developments

• U.S. Vice President Vance heading to Pakistan for unconfirmed peace talks

• Pakistan optimistic despite reports Iran is still weighing attendance

• AUD tracks headlines, but eyeing 0.7250-85 resistance zone

• U.S. Mar retail sales due Tue; Apr S&P flash PMIs due Thu

• Range Asia 0.7171-82, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• JPY crosses again buoyant, better bid, tentative moves back into risk?

• No doubt expectations BOJ will hold rates as is next week helping

• Totan Research/ICAP sees only 19% chance of hike next week, June 55%

• EUR/JPY to a fresh record high of 187.95 EBS Friday before falling back

• Yesterday saw some bounce, 186.48 early to 187.27, indicated 187.30 today

• In hover mode around 187.28 100-HMA, hourly Ichimoku cloud 187.09-14 below

• Underlining support at ascending 200-HMA at 186.49

• CHF/JPY to fresh recent highs, Asia so far today 203.55-204.17

• GBP/JPY also buoyant though holding below recent highs, 214.58-215.03

• AUD/JPY 113.83-114.06 and on hold under 114.37 high Friday

• Related , on BOJ , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/JPY:


CHF/JPY:


AUD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY remains in stasis around 159.00, Asia so far today 158.78-88 EBS

• Below 159.00 but not by much, range yesterday 158.55-159.20

• Follows a more volatile Friday, range then 157.59-159.54

• No change in USD/JPY's core 158.00-160.00 range for now

• Spot now above hourly Ichimoku cloud which has fallen, 158.56-59 currently

• 100 and 200-HMAs above at 158.91 and 159.05, respectively

• Japan importer Tokyo fix demand eyed again today, exporters 159.00+

• On options front, no large expiries nearby except $745 mln between 159.55-65

• Smattering of expiries today at 157.25, around 158.60, between 159.00-35

• JGB-US Treasury rate differential tad narrower yesterday, trend resuming?

• Focus remains on news on Middle East conflict, moves in crude oil prices

• Focus also on upcoming BOJ, Fed policy announcements, no change for both?

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Middle East , BOJ , Fed
USD/JPY:


What will the Federal Reserve do with interest rates?:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD +0.4% Tue as inflation remains above RBNZ's 1-3% target band

• NZ Q1 CPI +0.8% q/q, +3.1% y/y (Reuters poll +0.8%, +2.9% respectively)

• NZD resistance zone near 0.5965 likely to hold, news flow remains critical

• Trump maintains positive tone as U.S.-Iran ceasefire deadline approaches

• Pakistan confident Iran will attend peace talks despite earlier rejection

• U.S. Mar retail sales due Tue; Apr S&P flash PMIs due Thu

• Range NZ 0.5887-0.5911, support 0.5680 0.5580, resistance 0.5964 0.6012
NZD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

MUFG Research discusses this week's Kevin Warsh nomination hearing to the Senate Banking Committee.

"There are two elements to this theme that could serve to undermine the dollar. The first relates to the how the transition from one Fed Chair to the next plays out. CNN reported last Wednesday that Thom Tillis still plans to block his nomination until the criminal investigation into Chair Powell is dropped. President Trump has stated that he will not drop the case. A probable delay to confirmation would see Fed Chair Powell extend his time. President Trump has threatened to then fire Powell. We can all see the potential for that process to go badly," MUFG notes.

The second relates to whether the markets’ confidence in Kevin Warsh being a truly independent Fed Chair will be doubted. The hearing tomorrow will be important in that regard. Trump has openly said that he wanted a Fed Chair who would cut rates. Warsh now argues that strong productivity growth will allow for easier policy without fuelling inflation. The more Warsh is seen pushing those views tomorrow, the more investors will doubt his independence. This could be one of the big negative risks for the dollar over the coming year if the Fed cuts rates and inflation remains above target, which seems likely for most of the next year," MUFG adds.

• AUD/USD +1.1% from Mon 0.7115 low as U.S.-Iran ceasefire deadline looms

• Pakistan confident Iran will attend peace talks despite earlier rejection

• Trump continues to talk up prospects of peace deal and nuclear agreement

• AUD targeting 0.7250-85 resistance zone, but highly reactive to news flow

• U.S. Mar retail sales due Tue; Apr S&P flash PMIs due Thu

• Overnight range 0.7143-80, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar was mixed on Monday as oil held steady and equities softened ahead of a possible U.S.–Iran meeting, with a two-week ceasefire set to expire this week. President Donald Trump said a U.S. delegation is set to land in Pakistan within hours for talks on Iran, adding that he would be willing to meet with senior Iranian leaders himself if progress is made. Iran is weighing attendance at U.S. peace talks in Pakistan, though no decision has been made, a senior official told Reuters. In a statement, Iran's foreign ministry said U.S. ceasefire violations are blocking diplomacy and that Tehran will decide its next steps. Pakistan is confident it can bring Iran to U.S. talks, a senior Pakistani official told Reuters. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was largely halted Monday, with only three crossings in the past 12 hours, shipping data showed. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the economic impact of the Iran war remains below the ECB’s adverse scenario for prices and growth. Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh will tell lawmakers at his Tuesday confirmation hearing that he is "committed to ensuring that the conduct of monetary policy remains strictly independent." Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.4% though a core reading was below forecast.

DXY stayed range-bound around 98, with volatility little changed. EUR/USD firmed amid dollar sales ahead of possible U.S.-Iran talks, with bullish technical signals suggesting constructive consolidation.

GBP/USD edged modestly higher as risk sentiment steadied ahead of the ceasefire deadline and markets maintained a wait-and-see stance on geopolitics and Bank of England policy.

USD/JPY hovered near flat after briefly dipping to a new session low, leaving the pair coiling in a tight 158.00–159.50 triangle, with Bollinger bands at their narrowest since September. AUD/USD rose amid dollar weakness, with a bullish candle pattern pointing to a constructive pause.

Treasury yields were up as much as 2 basis points as the curve flattened. The 2s-10s curve was down about 1 basis point to +53.0bp.

The S&P 500 eased 0.24%.

WTI oil rose over 6%.

Gold slipped 0.30% while copper fell 1.2%. Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.20%, USD/JPY +0.2%, GBP/USD +0.13%, AUD/USD +0.15%, DXY -0.06%, EUR/JPY +0.33%, GBP/JPY +0.29%, AUD/JPY +0.27%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

• NY opened near 0.7155 after 0.7115 traded overnight, pair steadily rallied in NY

• USD selling, softer US yields helped to drive AUD/USD upward

• Erosion of most losses for stocks, gold, silver & copper added buoyancy

• AUD/USD filled the gap from Friday's close, turned positive, then traded 0.7178

• USD/CNH drop toward 6.8150 helped AUD/USD trade up +0.09% late in the day

• Daily bull hammer candle formed, it follows Friday's daily inverted hammer candle

• Today's, Friday's candle suggest AUD/USD is consolidating recent gains, a bull signal
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Barclays Research expect some risks for dollar retracement near term.

"In the midst of market pessimism around the tensions in the Middle East, we published our Outlook and a series of weekly notes, arguing that the dollar's performance was underwhelming against shocks that should have otherwise boosted it significantly. The reduction in regional pressures should, thus, drive the dollar weaker and we set EUR/$1.18 as a three-month forecast on that basis. Dollar price action, this year, has been dominated by geopolitical risks and USDG10 and USDEM negative correlation with risk sentiment has been re-established," Barclays notes.

"This past week saw a number of asset markets rush to fade the risk premia from the Middle East tensions. EUR/$ recovered back to pre-war levels and fully to our $1.18 three-month forecast. Tactical prudence would argue that price has extended significantly, while risks have yet to fully dissipate. In that sense, tactics would likely point to some risks for dollar retracement near term," Barclays adds.

Sterling looks set for a consolidation phase as geopolitical headwinds resurface, likely preventing any sustained break above the recent 1.36 peak in the coming days as traders eye support below 1.35 amid heightened geopolitical concerns. While cable showed resilience last week, the flare-up in U.S.-Iran tensions after the U.S. said it seized an Iranian cargo ship injected a fresh dose of volatility into the market, pushing sterling down toward 10-DMA support by 1.3478. This renewed angst is likely to cap cable gains, as the optimism that drove the pair from trend lows below 1.32 evaporates.

Underlying futures positioning reinforces this. IMM net speculative data shows that while sterling longs have inched up slightly, traders have maintained substantial short positions throughout the conflict. Traders may use relief rallies to initiate new shorts due to long-standing concerns about sticky inflation, low growth and fiscal challenges troubling the UK outlook.

Technically, the path higher remains restricted. Immediate resistance is at the daily high of 1.3527, followed by the Ichimoku daily cloud top at 1.3544, followed more significantly by the upper Bollinger band at 1.3595 and Friday's high by 1.3599.

On the downside, support is provided by the 10-DMA at 1.3478, which aligns closely with the session low of 1.3475. A breach here will put the 200-DMA at 1.3413 and the daily cloud base at 1.3408 in sharper focus.
Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses the next phase in G10 FX.

"Markets continue to move beyond peak conflict conditions. Broader measures of FX volatility and skew continue to revert towards pre-conflict levels and the BBDXY, SPX and VVIX have retraced levels relative to respective ranges since 27^th February on the belief that negotiations limit the risk for further near-term escalation. Whether this calculation proves correct remains to be seen, but we do think that the USD reversal through April has, in part been driven by seasonal factors. Using a 15yr window, April is the most negative seasonal month for USD performance," BofA notes

"For this reason, remain wary that USD underperformance can extend at its current pace: as much as April is the most negative month for USD performance, May is the second most positive for BBDXY performance. We continue to maintain a core long USD position versus both CAD (via options) and GBP (in spot) heading into May.

Key to this view is that whilst FX and equities have mean reverted, both oil prices and bond yields remain elevated relative to the range from February," BofA adds.

• Traders have slashed bets on gold and the euro rising

• Both gold and the euro have proved resilient despite the selling

• Gold rose to a record while specs were selling

• Gold up $800/oz since basing ahead 200-DMA and key fibo

• Impact of massive EUR/USD selling was less than a little buying

• Far less to stop euro and gold from extending bulls trends

• Loss of faith in USD and inflation fear are supporting euro and gold

• *

Gold and the euro

Gold rise in wake intensification trade war and and correction
during Iran conflict


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan discusses USD/JPY neat-term outlook.

"Fresh all-time in EURJPY last week gave way to decent cross JPY underperformance on Friday's oil collapse - very happy to not be sat in front of the screens to pay spreads but still not sure JPY is the one you want to go for when the all clear is sounded as it remains very hard to see energy going 'back to normal'.

The Japanese side remains unhelpful, JPM have changed their BoJ call overnight to that of a hawkish hold; domestic data of late has been questionable especially the business surveys last week but the continued geopolitical uncertainty remains the main factor," JPM notes.

"No real view here - USDJPY seems destined to remain 158/160 until further notice, no real clear net flow signature from last week but DHF did embark on a 2z JPY chase on Friday which has only reversed to a relatively minor extent overnight," JPM adds.

Credit Agricole. CIB Research highlights the latest reading from its positioning model.

"The AUD took over as the G10 FX largest long thanks to some buying interest last week, predominantly driven by Crédit Agricole CIB flows. Our FX flow data points at banks, corporates, hedge funds and real money investors inflows," CACIB notes.

"The NZD remains the largest short in the G10 FX despite some buying interest last week, predominantly driven by IMM flows. Our FX flow data points at banks, hedge funds and real money investors inflows, as well as corporates outflows," CACIB adds.

• AUD/USD fell toward the 10-DMA overnight, 0.7115 traded in Asia

• Pair fell as ceasefire between US, Iran appeared to be at risk of falling apart

• USD, US yields , oil rallied on risk-off sentiment

• Risk sentiment improved a bit however & USD softened while riskier assets firmed

• USD/CNH fell from its 6.8280 high while gold, silver, stocks rallied off their lows

• AUD/USD hit 0.7165 in Europe's morning, NY opened near 0.7155, was down -0.17%

• Daily RSI is falling but a bull hammer candle formed after AUD/USD's lift off its low

• Bull hammer follows Friday's inverted hammer, suggests possible consolidation

• Rising monthly RSI, pair's hold above 10-DMA & daily cloud are bullish signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY has seen a steady 158.69-159.20 range, on Monday, according to EBS data

• A major 7.5-magnitude quake hits off Japan, tsunami warning issued

• There have been multiple failures by USD/JPY to close below the broken 158.49 Fibo

• 158.49 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 152.10-160.47 2026 (EBS) rise

• There are two technical reasons why the dollar is in demand

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is well below +0.5 (relationship broken)

• Asian Development Bank President Kanda speaks about yen weakness

Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

April 20 (Reuters) - After an eight-day rally, EUR/USD is showing early bearish signals, including a moving-average death cross.

That warning is reinforced by Friday's long upper candlestick shadow and Monday's break below the top of the daily Ichimoku cloud. Together, these suggest the recent uptrend is losing momentum and may be close to reversing.

Still, the evidence is not yet decisive. By the close of Monday's session, some of these signals could weaken or lose significance.

A death cross occurs when a shorter-term moving average falls below a longer-term one, typically the 50-day SMA dropping under the 200-day SMA. It is generally seen as a bearish signal, pointing to fading momentum and the risk of a broader reversal. In EUR/USD, the 50-day SMA first crossed below the 100-day SMA on April 7, yet the pair continued rising to 1.1849 (EBS pricing) before easing back. On April 17, the 50-day SMA moved below the 200-day SMA, forming a death cross. However, both averages — especially the 200-day — are largely flat, which reduces the signal's strength.

Friday's shooting-star candle also hinted at a reversal. But Monday's long lower shadow may dilute that signal, leaving the bearish case still unconfirmed. A shooting star is a candlestick with a long upper shadow and little or no lower shadow, and a small real body (shaded area between the open and close) near the session lows that arises in an up-trend.

EUR/USD also dropped below the daily Ichimoku cloud top on Monday, another bear signal, but a rebound back above the 1.1746 line suggests that EUR bulls are still active. A close above the cloud would further weaken the reversal risks.
EUR/USD daily chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)