By Justin McQueen

Apr 8 (Reuters) - A full-scale escalation was avoided after the U.S. and Iran agreed a two-week ceasefire, pulling the rug from under the geo risk premium that had been supporting the USD. Yields down, oil down, hedges unwound, resulting in a rally for risk assets. Cable has retraced back into the 1.3485-1.3500 zone, effectively testing the pre-conflict levels, and the question now is whether there is real conviction to chase it through here or whether the market is content to fade the move.

It's worth noting that strikes are reportedly still ongoing in the region so while tail risks have narrowed, this is far from resolved. Conditions are expected to remain choppy with dollar softness at the margin. As flagged previously, GBP is arguably not the cleanest expression of USD weakness heading into May local elections. Political noise will keep a lid on extended topside. That said, seasonals are still constructive for sterling and with geo risk dialed down, the path of least resistance is modestly firmer. A weaker dollar lifts all boats.

Technically, 1.3485-1.3500 is the line in the sand. A clean break and close above opens the door for an impulsive leg toward 1.3600. Fail here and we likely consolidate in the short-run.
GBPUSD hourly chart


(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own) ((Email: ))

Nomura Research maintains a long EUR/GBP position targeting a move towards 0.8950 by end of April.

"From a cyclical, interest rate perspective there appears to be limited prospects for the BoE to match market pricing for hikes in the months ahead. Indeed, Governor Bailey, in a Reuters interview on 1 April, suggested that markets were “getting ahead of themselves” in terms of pricing tightening, and that the MPC would “focus on jobs, growth” at coming meetings, as well as inflation. He mentioned that firms he speaks to feel a “real lack of pricing power”. As the most likely swing voter between the hawks and doves, these comments suggest a high bar for him to flip to deliver hikes," Nomura notes.

"The ECB, meanwhile, appears to have a little more potential to match expectations with several hawkish comments suggesting that the April meeting is live. While we still think a hike is unlikely, a hawkish tone is likely to persist while inflation risks remain elevated," Nomura adds.

EUR/USD could be in for further gains, bolstered by a two-week ceasefire deal between the U.S. and Iran, alongside expectations for diverging central bank policy and technicals.

The ceasefire news caused a fall in short-term rates, as investors adjusted their forecasts for Fed and European Central Bank (ECB) policies. Market sentiment now indicates that the Fed may hold rates steady until 2026 , with potential cuts in 2027 , while the ECB is anticipated to implement two 25 basis point hikes by the end of 2026 . This expected divergence in policy outlook is likely to lend support to the euro against the dollar.

Technically, EUR/USD has displayed bullish signals. It has surged above the neckline of a head and shoulders bottom pattern on daily charts, as well as breaching the converging 200- and 55-day moving averages. These developments reinforce a bullish signals reflected in rising daily and monthly RSIs and a recent break above the rising 10- and 21-day moving averages.

If the ceasefire holds and geopolitical tensions ease, EUR/USD could potentially rally above the key resistance level near 1.1800, setting its sights on January's monthly high.
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Danske Research expects a reversal lower in EUR/CHF over the coming weeks.

"EUR/CHF has been moving higher the past weeks, breaking above the 0.9250 mark. Swiss inflation for March came in to the low side, akin to European neighbours. Headline came in at 0.3% y/y (cons: 0.5%, prior: 0.1%) and core came in unchanged at 0.4% matching expectations. The increase was primarily driven by a rise in energy prices, matching the SNBs latest set of forecasts from the March meeting. While recent data highlighted that the SNB remained sidelined on FX intervention throughout 2025, recent sight deposit data shows little evidence of intervention over the past weeks," Danske notes.

"We attribute the recent move higher in EUR/CHF as a reflection of the strong message the SNB delivered on FX intervention and possible intervention. We see room for a reversal of the recent move and think a global environment characterised by elevated energy prices and high uncertainty combined with a trickier global growth backdrop will benefit CHF vs peers," Danske adds

Goldman Sachs Research previews the US March CPI report on Friday.

"We expect a sharp increase in energy prices to contribute to a 0.87% rise in the headline CPI in March.

• Our forecast implies a large increase in year-over-year headline CPI inflation from 2.43% to 3.28%.  Energy prices are likely to rise sharply again in April, taking headline CPI inflation to around 4%," GS notes.

• "We forecast a 0.28% increase in the core CPI, which would raise the year-over-year rate to 2.69%.  We expect the impact of higher oil prices to show up in a 4% increase in airfares, and we expect roughly 0.03pp worth of tariff effects this month," GS adds.

• AUD/USD rallied to a 13-session high on news US-Iran reach 2-week ceasefire

• Pair rallied above the 21- & 55-DMAs and the daily cloud top, traded 0.6969-0.7084

• US$ sold broadly as its safe-haven status waned, US yield drop added weight on US$

• AUD/USD rally aided by oil , USD CNH drops & rallies in stocks, gold & silver

• US$ firmed up a bit in Europe, AUD/USD opened NY near 0.7040, up +0.86%

• Rising RSIs, move above many DMAs & daily cloud give techs a bullish lean

• February's monthly high is a key impediment for AUD/USD bulls
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

By Justin McQueen

Apr 8 (Reuters) - EUR/CHF has backed off the 200-day MA cluster at 0.9260/71 yet again, sliding to 0.9200. Those who chased the cross higher on the back of the U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire have been left disappointed and the drop suggests that the path of least resistance remains downwards.

The Swiss National Bank’s FX reserve data is the other talking point. Reserves jumped CHF 11 billion last month – the biggest increase since October – which aligns with the bank’s step up in rhetoric against CHF strength. On the surface that sounds bullish for the cross, but the data does not support it. Looking back at previous instances where reserves rose CHF 11 billion or more, EUR/CHF averaged a 0.6% decline over the following 20 days and was higher only 38% of the time. So the print does not give a green light to get bullish.

Near-term though, absent a clean break through those 200-day MAs, this is consolidation territory. The ceasefire has taken the tail risk of a full-blown U.S.-Iran escalation off the table, so a move to 0.90 looks to be off the table for now. But with both sides still far apart on anything durable, we are not out of the woods and that limits how far this cross can run to the upside from here.
EURCHF daily chart


eurchf return after fx reserves rise


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• U.S.-listed shares of gold and silver miners rise premarket, tracking gains in precious metal prices after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement

• Gold and silver prices rise to nearly a three-week high as markets reassess near-term risks following the two-week ceasefire announcement[GOL/]

• Spot gold up 2.2% at 4804.1 per ounce, spot silver

climbs 5.3% to 76.79 per ounce

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining

up 5.8%

• South African miners: Gold Fields , Sibanye Stillwater , AngloGold Ashanti and Harmony Gold

up between 9% and 10.5%

• Silver miners Hecla Mining and Coeur Mining

up 7.3%

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver adds 6.2%, Silvercorp Metals rises 8%, Agnico Eagle Mines rises 5.6% and Kinross Gold

up 5.9%

(Reporting by Utkarsh Tushar Hathi)

• AUD/USD rises to 0.7083 as two-week Iran ceasefire lifts risk-sensitive AUD

• 0.7083 is the highest level since March 20 (0.7097 was the high that day)

• AUD/USD was sub-0.70 when the ceasefire was announced (circa 2230 GMT)

• Oil slides below $100. Stocks jump: Kospi up 6.87%; Nikkei up 5.39%

• AUD/NZD retreats from 13-year high by 1.22 to 1.21 on RBNZ's hawkish hold

• CFTC data showed net AUD long hit 13-year high in week to March 31

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY off some more in late Asia trade, to 159.06 EBS

• A far cry from the 160.03 seen yesterday, off from 159.96 early Asia

• Test of 158.03 low March 23, 158.00 may be imminent

• Next support at 157.62 low March 20, 157.51 trough March 19

• $622 mln in option expiries today at 158.00 likely supportive for now

• Larger $906 mln down between 156.95-157.10

• Related , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD jumps 1.1589-1.1708 on Wednesday

• Rally lifts pair above 1.1666 peak 20-day Bollingers - overbought

• Close in relation to the 200-DMA at 1.1673 is key

• Rise toward 1.1746/1.1826 may follow closes above 200-DMA

• EUR/USD may be set for a lengthy consolidation within 1.15-20

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/14.00 GMT on Wednesday April 8

• EUR/USD: 1.1600-10 (3.7BLN), 1.1615-20 (437M), 1.1625 (1.6BLN), 1.1630-40 (691M)

• 1.1650 (302M), 1.1700 (1BLN), 1.1725-35 (581M), 1.1750 (784M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8680 (400M), 0.8710-15 (312M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3350-55 (393M). USD/CAD: 1.3825-30 (603M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6975 (250M), 0.6985-90 (621M), 0.7015 (257M), 0.7030 (233M)

• AUD/NZD: 1.1900 (430M), 1.1950 (488M), 1.2000 (357M)

• USD/JPY: 158.00 (621M), 158.40-45 (900M), 159.50 (326M), 160.00 (1.1BLN)(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Shanjin International Gold jump 10% to 32.29 yuan, their highest level since March 13

• China-based precious metals and non-ferrous metals mining group says it expects its Q1 net profit to surge 94.6%-107.5% y/y

• YTD, stock up 30.3%, CSI non-ferrous metal sub-industry index up 8.7%

(Reporting by Donny Kwok)

• NZD/USD +1.4% Wed as RBNZ leaves OCR unchanged at 2.25% as expected

• RBNZ expects higher inflation & economic recovery to weaken

• NZD surged earlier in wake of U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire announcement

• NZD downtrend intact, but RBNZ warnings of higher rates may challenge

• Pakistan brokering Islamabad talks Fri, sides far apart on stated positions

• U.S. Feb durable goods -1.4% m/m (poll -1.0%), Feb PCE & Q4 GDP due Thur

• Range NZ 0.57059-0.5818, support 0.5680 0.5580, resistance 0.5918 0.6092
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australia's gold stocks rise as much as 7.5% to their highest since March 13

• Gold extends gains as markets reassessed near-term risks after Donald Trump agreed to pause attacks on Iran for two weeks, easing fears of energy-driven inflation [GOL/]

• Miners Bellevue Gold , Greatland Resources , Ora Banda Mining up between 10.8% and 15.3%; among top movers on sub-index

• BGL, GGP, OBM among top movers on S&P/ASX 200 index , which is up 2.7%

• YTD, AXGD up 0.2%

(Reporting by Sherin Sunny in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY up to 160.03 EBS yesterday before reversing, falling, breaking south

• News of a Middle East two week ceasefire sends crude oil prices, USD down

• Middle East crude flows out of Hormuz Strait looks to be guaranteed for now

• Asia seeing USD/JPY down from 159.74 to 158.61 on back of the good news

• Towards 158.56 low last Friday, 158.28 low April 1, maybe even 158.00 test

• Threat of Japan FX intervention looks to be much less now but caution still

• Larger option expiries today both to downside and upside

• 158.00 $622 mln, 158.40-45 $900 mln, some at 159.50, 160.00 $1.1 bln

• Long JGB-US Treasury rate differentials off yesterday, in 10s to @190 bps

• More narrowing likely to prove JPY supportive

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On US-Iran , US data , central banks
USD/JPY:


Brent crude oil futures:


JGB-US Treasury 10-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD +1.0% Wed as Trump announces 2-week pause on Iran military attacks

• Says ceasefire double-sided & is subject to full re-opening Strait of Hormuz

• WTI plummets 8.7%, gold +2.3%, DXY down 0.5% from Tue 100.15 high

• AUD break above 0.7018 55-DMA likely to invigorate buyers short-term

• U.S. Feb durable goods -1.4% m/m (poll -1.0%), Feb PCE & Q4 GDP due Thur

• Range Asia 0.6969-0.7042, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7188 0.7282
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +1.2% from Tue 0.6899 low ahead of Trump's 0000 GMT Iran deadline

• U.S. threatening to attack Iranian civil infrastructure unless demands met

• CN & RU veto UN resolution to protect shipping in Strait of Hormuz

• AUD pushing upper hourly Bollinger band, pair news reactive in short-term

• U.S. Feb durable goods -1.4% m/m (poll -1.0%), Feb PCE & Q4 GDP due Thur

• Overnight range 0.6910-81, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7188 0.7282
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Morgan Stanley Research previews the US March CPI report on Friday.

"We expect core CPI to rise 0.19% m/m (2.6% y/y), slightly below February. We forecast core goods in positive territory, but likely close to the 0% mark. We think the tariff pass-through continued in March, but we also anticipate soft cars inflation and deceleration in apparel after February's strong reading. Core services decelerate due to seasonal payback and despite stronger rents and positive airfares inflation," MS notes.

"Headline comes at 0.84%m/m (3.3%y/y, NSA Index: 330.337) as higher oil boosts gasoline – this would be the highest reading since the disruption in oil markets related to the RussiaUkraine conflict in 2022," MS adds.

• AUD/USD fell to 0.6899 in Asia on the back of broad-based US$ buying

• The pair then rallied as the US$ fell; USD/CNH dropped down to 6.8570

• AUD/USD rallied to 0.6948, a 4-session high, sellers then emerged

• Risk soured on report Iran's Kharg Island targeted with strikes

• Stocks, gold, silver fell while US$, US yields, USD/CNH traded upward

• AUD/USD neared 0.6925, NY opened nearby, the pair traded up only +0.15%

• Pair still consolidating its drop from the February high, is a bearish sign

• Pair's hold above the daily cloud base & 10-DMA gives bulls some comfort

• Pres. Trump's deadline for a deal with Iran looms for Tuesday night
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses USD/CAD outlook and targets the cross at 1.39, 1.37, and 1.35 by end of Q2,Q3, and Q4 respectively.

"The absence of evidence of a material shift in portfolio flows between Canada and the US may have helped keeping USD/CAD rather steady. All in all, there does not seem to be enough at this stage to pull USD/CAD out of its rangetrading pattern that has prevailed for the best part of the past year or so, and we thus stick to our forecast path that has embedded exactly that for the rest of the year," CACIB notes.

"With a marginal bias for USD/CAD to trade closer to the upper (rather than lower) end of the range in the coming months, primarily due to the risks surrounding the USMCA review around mid-year, although threats of a massive shake-up may have arguably diminished with the US administration being busy on other fronts. Further down the line, the CAD may eke out some marginal gains vs the USD on the basis of renewed monetary policy divergence next year," CACIB adds.

Goldman Sachs Research see a scope for another major reverse lower in EUR/CHF.

"An explicit shift in the SNB’s intervention bias at the onset of the current energy shock has been key to the Franc’s underperformance in March, but we see a building case for a reversal lower in EUR/CHF from current levels. We think a similar pattern to the 2022 shock should apply this time around, with initial SNB-driven CHF underperformance giving way to clearer EUR/CHF downside," GS notes.

"While the SNB’s current intervention stance may continue to limit the Franc’s haven behavior in the near term, we increasingly favor outright downside EUR/CHF exposure over the more medium term," GS adds.

Bank of America Global Research maintains a tactial bearish bias on EUR/USD through Q2.

"We remain bearish on EURUSD in the near term, with our end-Q2 forecast at 1.14 and risks skewed to the downside. Persistently higher energy prices present stagflationary impulses globally and slower US-Euro area growth convergence," BofA notes.

The Fed-ECB divergence that our economists forecast for later this year creates an interesting backdrop: on the one hand, an ECB that is focused on protecting its inflation credentials, vs a Fed that prioritizes the labor market, could be a EURUSD tailwind. On the other hand, the picture gets clouded when looking at our economists' forecasts in real terms. Belly real rates have already moved against the EUR and could move further in case of higher global growth concerns or an ECB overreaction," BofA adds.

Nomura Research previews the RBNZ April policy meeting.

"The RBNZ meets this week amid heightened Middle East uncertainty, following the speech by President Trump. We share the strong consensus that it will announce an unchanged cash rate of 2.25%. While we expect some sabre rattling – to guard against the risk of a jump in longer-term inflation expectations – we think the RBNZ will appear relatively balanced , and likely less hawkish than the RBA, ECB and BoE," Nomura notes.

"The renewed jump in oil prices is a negative for NZD too, as New Zealand is a large energy importer, and NZD has also proved somewhat risk-sensitive...We do think positioning favours NZD over AUD – given long positions in AUD in particular – but struggle to identify a fundamental catalyst to push AUD/NZD down near term," Nomura adds.