• GBP$ soft in NY afternoon trading -0.44% at 1.3426; Monday range 1.3505-1.3423

• Early GBP bid on wave of USD, EUR intervention-related selling versus JPY abated

• Oil down more than 5%, gilt yields down near-10bp in 2-10-yr part of curve weighs

• Fed-BoE short-term rate convergence, IMM spec short unwinds likely supports

• LSEG'S IRPR sees Fed 68% odds for hike in Sept, near-100% in Oct; BoE 70% odds for Dec hike

• GBP$ supt 1.3423 Monday low, 1.3400 psychological lvl/200-DMA, 1.3352 30-DMA

• Res 1.3500/05 psychological lvl/Mon high, 1.3534 upper 30-d Bolli, 1.3610 May 12 high

GBP$ Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research on the key 155 level in USD/JPY post the US-Japan joint intervention.

"We believe a break below ¥155 could trigger a meaningful shift in market dynamics. If ¥155 holds, market participants are likely to continue viewing it as a floor and may re-establish short-yen positions. Conversely, a sustained move below ¥155 could trigger stop-loss selling in USD/JPY," BofA notes.

"In addition, the latest BOJ Tankan survey showed that Japanese corporates are assuming USD/JPY levels in the ¥152s for the current fiscal year. It is reasonable to infer that ¥150 and ¥155 are among the most widely used planning assumptions. Given the strengthening consensus for yen weakness this year, hedge ratios may have declined. A break below ¥155 could therefore encourage corporate hedgers to shift toward selling USD/JPY on rallies rather than sitting on USD/JPY carry," BofA adds.

• EUR/CHF remains constructive, with focus turning back to the YTD high at 0.9350

• Swiss CPI matched expectations, though the print was softer than the prior month

• Broader risk appetite should remain the key driver for CHF direction near term

• Initial resistance is seen at 0.9350, with a break opening 0.9395-0.9400

• Support comes in at 0.9265, then 0.9220-30 (200-day MAs)
EURCHF daily chart


Swiss CPI


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

HSBC Research discusses the latest wave of JPY intervention.

"It is unclear why the US Treasury decided to sell EUR-JPY rather than USD-JPY. There could be greater clarity given by Bessent in the coming days. However, it is possible that the US Treasury wants to limit the downward pressure on the USD, as further currency weakness could lead to higher US Treasury yields . The weekly release of the US’s international reserves (7 August) will tell us how EUR (USD26bn as of 24 July) and JPY assets (USD11.5bn) have changed," HSBC notes.

"Additional rounds of US-Japan FX intervention could occur. It is also possible that other central banks decide to join. The ECB has been quiet so far on the matter, but if it were to intervene as well, this would look like an implicit currency accord to strengthen the JPY. Still, doubts would persist on the sustainability of a JPY recovery when the BoJ is measured at raising rates," HSBC adds.

The British pound's bullish momentum against the U.S. dollar appears poised to continue, driven by a subtle alignment in monetary policy expectations from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, coupled with substantial dollar and euro selling by Japanese authorities, which has bolstered the yen.

While attention has recently been drawn to ongoing yen intervention by the MoF and U.S. Treasury, moving focus away from oil and geopolitical concerns, the recent aggressive selling in USD/JPY has had a ripple effect strengthening other major currency pairs.

Although the pound has dipped slightly today, its underlying strength remains intact due to the less hawkish stance of the Fed and the more hawkish tone from the BoE after recent bank meetings. This has created a favorable environment for GBP, particularly as positioning trends suggest an unwinding of the current GBP net spec short position, valued at $5.4 billion.

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD encounters resistance at today's high of 1.3505, followed by the July 15 high at 1.3556. A sustained close above this level could bring the early May highs in the mid-1.363 range into view. Conversely, bearish sentiment would require a decline below the 200-day moving average at 1.3400, with a further drop below 1.3274, the July 28 low, potentially exposing the yearly low at 1.3140.

In summary, the combination of shifting rate expectations and positioning dynamics suggests that GBP/USD could maintain its upward trajectory in the near term, even after the current round of intervention-related USD selling ends.
GBP Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research discusses the latest wave of JPY intervention.

"The yen has continued to strengthen at the start of this week after Japanese Finance Minister Katayama confirmed overnight the Japan intervened alongside the US to support the yen on Friday. The statement justified the joint action to counter excessive volatility and disorderly movement in the yen in recent months, and emphasized that “we will not hesitate to conduct further joint intervention”. It was the first joint intervention involving Japan and the US since 18th March 2011 when joint intervention was undertaken after the 11th March Tohoku earthquake and tsunami to weaken the yen...

The US may also have secured an agreement with Japan to allow the BoJ to continue to normalize policy as part of the decision to take part in joint intervention. Japan’s Chief Currency official Atsushi Mimura stated overnight that we will respond to FX in coordination with monetary policy while adding that “I have shared understanding with the BoJ”," MUFG notes.

"Overall, the latest development give us more confidence in our forecasts that the yen is in the process of bottoming out. The threat of further joint intervention and a faster pace of BoJ hikes should provide more support for the yen, and discourage speculators from running elevated short yen positions," MUFG adds.

Goldman Sachs Research discusses the latest wave of JPY intervention.

"Japan's latest apparent intervention took a maximal approach, leaning into some negative developments for the Dollar with a combination of what appears to be substantial selling of USD/JPY-BOJ accounts suggest it is on the high end of historical operations-together with reported US "rate checks" followed by US intervention. These actions following Japanese intervention serve as a signal of support for the Yen vs both the Dollar and Euro in an effort amplify Japan's more substantive operations,": GS notes

"And we continue to think intervention is an effective tool for authorities to buy some time before fundamental factors turn more positive...Outside of a change in either the policy mix or global growth outlook, we think encouraging repatriation would be the most powerful policy for influencing the currency over a long period of time," GS adds.

• $CAD firm in early NorAm, +0.08% at 1.4029; Monday range 1.4044-1.4004

• Yen-related USD selling holds no sway for CAD; CA rates subordinate to US

• IMM data Friday indicates CAD selling rose amid US-CA trade, rate concerns

• Large, growing USDCAD long ripe for reversal should US rate outlook shift more dovish

• Friday US and CA employment data in focus; the US CPI Aug 12 & CA CPI Aug 17

• $CAD res 1.4044 Mon high, 1.4064 daily cloud top, 1.4119 daily base line

• Supt 1.4004/1.4000 Mon low/psychological lvl, 1.3975 lwr 21-d Bolli, 1.3899 daily cloud base

CAD Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD trades with a softer bias after failed topside break at 0.7020-30 resistance zone

• 0.7000 back under pressure, price action still broadly consolidative for now

• Close in focus, daily settle below 0.6992 would signal a bearish key day reversal

• Bearish key day defined as higher high, lower low, and close below prior day low

• A confirmed reversal would shift near-term risks lower towards 0.6950 support

• Further downside opens 0.6910-20 zone, where the 200-day MA cluster sits
AUDUSD daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Aug 3 (Reuters) - USD/JPY has undergone a dramatic technical shift after a sustained uptrend spanning April 2025 through July 2026. The pair reversed sharply in late July, plunging from an intra-month high of 163.99 to close at 157.38 (EBS) — carving out a textbook bearish key reversal month. For technicians, this pattern carries weight: a fresh bull-trend high followed by a close at or below the prior month's low signals exhaustion, particularly after an extended, one-directional advance of this magnitude.

The reversal was accompanied by significant technical damage. USD/JPY has decisively broken below its 50- and 100-day moving averages, while also slicing through the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) — a zone that had previously acted as robust dynamic support. The loss of the Kumo as a floor often marks a genuine regime shift rather than a routine pullback.

• Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has collapsed to 24.37, deep in oversold territory (sub-30). While confirming intense selling pressure, readings this extreme are historically overextended and often precede a corrective bounce or consolidation before further downside.

• The 14-day momentum oscillator sits at -5.445, underscoring high-conviction bearish velocity.

• Price has broken sharply below the lower Bollinger Band, signalling volatility expansion and "band-walking" — typically indicative of a strongly trending market near-term, even as RSI argues for caution on fresh shorts.
Key Levels to Watch: 155.00 — initial support, the May 2026 swing low, then 154.78 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025–July 2026 bull run (139.89–163.99) and 152.28 — support, aligning with the February 2026 low.

The bearish key reversal month, daily moving average/Kumo breakdowns, and Bollinger Band expansion support a structural trend change. However, the extreme RSI reading suggests near-term downside may be vulnerable to a relief rally before the 154.78–152.28 zone is tested. Traders are likely to weigh the reversal signal's strength against the risk of chasing an extended move, with 155.00–154.78 likely the first key battleground.
USD/JPY Monthly Chart:


USD/JPY daily chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable softer on the session as USD catches a bid, trimming recent gains

• 1.35 resistance holds on first test, upside momentum fading after sharp move from sub-1.33

• Price action consistent with near-term consolidation

• Initial support seen at 1.34 (200-day MA), below that 1.33 is key

• UK jobs survey - advertised wage growth cools to 3.9%, slowest since Feb 2022

• Data leans dovish at the margin, reinforcing BoE “wait-and-see” stance

• Macro backdrop remains headline-driven, geopolitical noise likely to keep FX ranges choppy

• Near-term focus shifts squarely to Friday’s U.S. payrolls as next directional catalyst
GBPUSD daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Aug 3 (Reuters) - ntervention has put USD/JPY on course to eventually retest this year's 152.10 low printed on EBS in January. USD/JPY saw big falls on Thursday and Friday to register a close below the Ichimoku daily cloud, which currently spans the 158.49-160.71 region. That could help with Tokyo's efforts to keep the exchange rate under control. USD/JPY dropped further on Monday, keeping traders on alert for further intervention. Japan and the United States conducted coordinated yen-buying intervention on Friday and will not hesitate to take further action, Japan's finance ministry said on Monday, confirming a rare bilateral action to halt the yen's slide to fresh 40-year lows. That after Japan intervened on Thursday.

The scale of the intervention in recent sessions, threats for more action and sustained trading below the cloud, increase the chances of a durable shift lower in USD/JPY.
Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Aug 3 (Reuters) - Mitsubishi Corp :

• MITSUBISHI CORP CFO: IF CURRENT TRENDS IN COPPER AND OIL PRICES AND FOREX RATES CONTINUE, FULL-YEAR EARNINGS COULD EXCEED OUR FORECAST

• MITSUBISHI CORP CFO: WILL CAREFULLY ASSESS SCOPE FOR RAISING OUR FULL-YEAR EARNINGS FORECAST TOWARD SECOND QUARTER

• MITSUBISHI CORP CFO: MIDDLE EAST CRISIS HAS HAD A LIMITED IMPACT SO FAR, BUT WE WILL RETAIN 30 BILLION YEN RISK BUFFER FOR FY2026

• MITSUBISHI CORP CFO: U.S. AETHON IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ANNUAL PROFITS OF 50 BILLION-60 BILLION YEN

• MITSUBISHI CORP CFO: AIM TO BOOST COPPER OUTPUT THROUGH EQUITY HOLDINGS TO 400,000 METRIC TONS IN OR AFTER FISCAL 2030, UP FROM 330,000 TONS IN FISCAL 2025
Further company coverage: [8058.T]

• AUD/USD settles just +0.1% Mon after gaining almost 0.7% in early trading

• Broader USD index overcomes fear of ongoing coordinated JPY intervention

• U.S. & JP officially confirm JPY action last week, vow to maintain efforts

• CN Jul RatingDog manufacturing PMI slows to 50.9 (poll 51.5, prior 51.7)

• AUD break back below 0.7025 would elevate reversal risk, 0.6920 possible

• AU Jun & Q2 household spending due Tue (prior +1.3%, +0.7% respectively)

• Range Asia 0.7028-69 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.2% Mon, but well off early 0.7069 high as USD negativity eases

• Anxiety surrounding U.S.-Japan coordinated JPY intervention abates

• Brent crude -4.6% after Trump cancels scheduled Iran attacks, seeks deal

• AUD struggling to maintain elevation above prior 0.7025-35 resistance zone

• Break back below 0.7025 would signal return of downside risk toward 0.6920

• AU Jul S&P manufacturing PMI 52.0 (prior 51.7), Jun household spending Tue

• Range Asia 0.70325-69 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• News of Japan-US joint intervention sends USD/JPY to 157.00 early Asia today

• Some rebound since to 157.87 EBS but upside seen capped for now at 158.00

• Another round of sales noted after rebound, to fresh 156.00 low

• News of joint intervention still being digested, ramifications large

• Reports Japan spent close to $60 bln, the US maybe $5-10 bln

• Joint FX intervention Friday first since 2011 after the Fukushima earthquake

• Talk in market of Japan FX intervention too in EUR/JPY

• USD/JPY now below ascending 200-DMA at 157.97, to help cap market now

• Still ascending daily Ichimoku cloud above between 158.49-160.70

• In option expiries, some on 156, 157, $1.1 bln up at 158.60 strike today

• JGB-US rate differentials saw some narrowing, 2s to 271, 10s to 184 bps

• With BOJ also likely to hike this fall, the yen may have bottomed for now

• Japanese importers will continue to buy large but sales to dominate?

• Exporters more likely to sell large, foreign Japan stock buy hedges off too?

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also

• US markets , , ,

• Oil early Asia , on US-Iran , also

• On Japan-US action , , ,

• And , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/THB opens little changed despite broad USD fall on JPY intervention

• Japan confirms joint yen intervention with US, signals readiness for more

• USD/THB traded 33.40-33.53 range in NY, last at 33.42

• Supports at 33.30, 33.20, resistance at 33.50, 33.60 intraday

• Lower oil prices and bearish techs likely to add to selling pressure

• Brent crude last -4.57% to $83.91/bbl; WTI -4.71% to $80.70/bbl

• Trump says US will hold off on fresh Iran attack in hope of quick deal

• Eyes on stocks - rally on Wall Street to boost sentiment

• DXY traded 99.65-100.45 range on Friday, last at 99.75
THB

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• USD/KRW opens tad higher Mon at 1438.1, tracking USD/JPY

• Suppressed, with ceiling of downtrend channel 1449.3 to cap spikes

• Another close below 61.8% Fibo 1429.0 will lure more sellers

• USD/JPY bobs up after steep drops to as low as 157.00, last 157.85

• DXY tanked due to joint US-Japan yen intervention

• S. Korea July exports beat forecasts at +62.8% y/y
KRW


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.4% Mon as evidence of ongoing bilateral JPY coordination mounts

• JP government officials pre-empt official confirmation to come later Mon

• Trump says U.S. intervening because of good relationship with JP

• Trump cancels planned Iran attacks subject to being able to reach a deal

• AUD break above 0.7035 may enable topside extension toward 0.7088 resistance

• AU S&P global manufacturing PMI due Mon, Jun/Q2 household spending due Tue

• Range early Asia 0.7035-69 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD net spec G10 long +$5.95bn to +$51.3bn in Jul 22-28 period, $IDX +0.23%

• EUR$ -0.13%; specs -31.1k contracts now -72.4k; EZ inflation, growth outlook opaque

• $JPY +0.4%; specs -11.3k contracts now -163.4k; BoJ on hold, no intervention lifts USD

• Thursday intervention saw extreme yen reversal; US Trsry warned of more selling

• GBP$ -0.65%; specs -9.3k contracts now -64.8k; dovish Fed, hawkish BoE adds to GBP allure

• $CAD +0.01%; specs -1.9k contracts now -176.3k; CAD short likely pared post-dovish Fed

• AUD$ -0.38%; specs -2.3k contracts now -40k; AUD rising in current period amid widening AU-US spreads

Majors w/IMM Performance Chart:


IMM Position Table as of 7-31:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7030 after AUD/USD rallied to 0.7044 in overnight trading

• AUD/USD fell on USD, US yield gains & USD/CNH rally to 6.7550

• Drops in equities, gold, silver added weight; AUD/USD neared the 10-DMA, hit 0.6992

• Buyers emerged as USD selling took hold while stocks, gold, silver moved upward

• USD/CNH pull back from its high and gains for copper helped AUD/USD lift

• AUD/USD rallied and sat above 0.7035 late, it traded up +0.06% in NY's afternoon

• Daily bull hammer, rising RSIs, hold above 10- & 21-DMas are bullish tech signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

CIBC Research previews the US July jobs report due on next Friday.

US hiring is expected to remain modest in July, albeit slightly stronger than in the prior month. The 75K gain expected in payrolls would be broadly consistent with a labour market seeing little hiring but also little firing as well. Having drifted up a little in the prior month, initial jobless claims fell back again in July," CIBC notes.

"The separate household survey is expected to show a rebound in employment following a prior month decline, but potentially an even larger rebound in the size of the labour force due to increased participation. While the national participation rate will drift down over time due to aging demographics, the prior month’s sharp drop in prime aged participation looked suspiciously large and could partially rebound. Higher participation could see the jobless rate tick up slightly to 4.3%," CIBC adds.

• Cable elicits support pre-1.3400 after drop from 1.3432

• 1.3432 was high after dollar weakened on U.S. Treasury news

• U.S. Treasury informed banks that it may intervene in yen, source says

• 1.3400 is a former resistance level turned support point

• New UK finance minister Healey to unveil his first budget on October 28

• BoE's Pill (hawk) sees risk of 'insidious' build-up of inflation pressures

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research on this week's wave of Japan's MoF intervention.

"The yen surged yesterday with USD/JPY dropping around 5 big figures from 163.00 to 158.00 before then rebounding. The initial move didn’t catch the eye on a day when the US dollar was weakening more generally but it quickly became clear that this was likely action from the MoF. The scale of the intra-day move following this probable action was similar to moves in previous episodes of intervention. The timing is also similar, at month-end, and will fall into the period in which confirmation will not be published until the end of August," MUFG notes.

"The MoF often acts on a second occasion when intervening and hence there will likely be some reluctance in the market to buy USD/JPY now but there is a risk that buyers will soon return given the lack of conviction from the BoJ on the potential necessity for upping the pace of monetary tightening," MUFG adds.