• NY opened near 1.1860 after EUR/USD slowly drifted downward overnight

• US yields , US$ fell sharply after Jan. CPI, EUR/USD hit 1.1885

• The US$ regained its footings however & firmed up, EUR/USD fell to 1.1848

• Yields extended their losses & spreads tightened, EUR/USD rallied again

• Gains in gold, silver, stocks & USD/CNH's downward move reinforced US$ selling

• EUR/USD hit 1.1882 then neared 1.1875 late, pair was up +0.03% late in the day

• Daily & monthly doji candles are in place, suggests indecision from investors

• Pair's hold below 50% Fib of 1.2084-1.1766 is a concerns for bulls

• EUR/USD remains above the 10- & 21-DMAs however which encourages bulls
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP$ firm in NY afernoon, +0.2% at 1.3649; NorAm range 1.3600-1.3660

• Early NorAm weakness reversed, pair moved steadily higher after US CPI release

• Jan core CPI y/y as f/c at 2.5%, HL CPI a tad lower at 2.4%; UST yield slide lifts GBP

• Fed rate cut odds drift higher for JUne 25bp cut, -63bp priced to Dec 2026

• UK GDP below-f/c on Thursday hints at more dovish BoE policy path as well, anchors GBP$

• UK employment data on Feb 17, CPI/RPI on Wednesday in focus for BoE policy clues

• GBP$ supt 1.3600 Fri low, 1.3571 rising 30-DMA, 1.3512 rising 50-DMA

• Res 1.3670 Thursday high, 1.3733 daily high Feb 4, 1.3838 upper 30-d Bolli

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ING Research summarizes its EUR/USD fair-value estimates.

"The short-term fair value of EUR/USD has dropped to 1.165 after the latest hawkish repricing in the USD curve, meaning the overvaluation gap has now widened too," ING notes.

"In line with our USD view, we are reluctant to see that gap being filled entirely, even if some downside risks for the pair remain," ING adds.

• NY opened near 0.7050 after AUD/USD traded lowever overnight, pair rallied early

• Below estimate headline US CPI sent yields , US$ broadly lower

• 0.7081 traded, US$ then rallied, AUD/USD fell below 0.7050 but then neared 0.7080 late

• Rallies in gold , silver , stocks & USD/CNH drop buoyed AUD/USD

• The pair erased most earlier & overnight losses, was down only -0.20% in NY's afternoon

• Falling dail yRSI concerns bulls but rising monthly RSI, hold above 10-DMA gives some comfort
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the USD outlook for the coming week.

"Looking ahead into next week, the ‘USD rebalancing’ theme could remain quite important and investors will scrutinise the TIC data for December looking for any indications that foreign demand for USTs and US stocks has started to taper off.

In addition, market participants will focus on core PCE deflator data for December, PMIs for February as well as the minutes from the January FOMC meeting and Fedspeak. FX investors will further keep an eye out for any headlines regarding SCOTUS’ long-anticipated verdict on the trade tariffs of the Trump administration," CACIB notes.

"In all, we continue to think that many Fed-related negatives are already in the price of the USD and would expect the currency to consolidate in the absence of data disappointments and/ or dovish surprises from the Fed in the near-term. It would take evidence that international investors continued to buy US assets, however, to give the USD a more lasting reprieve," CACIB adds.

Sterling is set for consolidation with an underlying bullish bias as global markets recalibrate the pace of monetary easing expected from the Fed and BoE.

The BoE outlook has transitioned toward a more dovish stance, especially after Thursday's UK GDP miss, which prompted traders to price in a more aggressive rate-cut cycle. Normally this would pressure the pound, but the impact is being mitigated by other structural factors.

Most notably, UK political concerns have largely abated in recent sessions, effectively removing a significant layer of downside pressure that had recently haunted the currency. With the domestic political landscape, and by association fiscal concerns, stabilizing, sterling is better positioned to reflect fundamental shifts rather than sentiment-driven risk.

Furthermore, more dovish Fed expectations are providing a tailwind for cable. Despite Wednesday’s well-above forecast U.S. non-farm and private payroll data, and today’s mostly in-line U.S. CPI report, front-end U.S. rate futures are pricing a more-dovish Federal Reserve pivot on rates, which, if it gains traction is likely to cap dollar gains.

Technically, GBP/USD faces resistance at the recently bruised 10-DMA of 1.3637 and more significantly at the Feb. 11 and Feb. 4 highs at 1.3712 and 1.3733, with a sustained break likely to target the 2026 high at 1.3867, struck on January 27.

Support is well-defined, beginning with the Ichimoku Conversion Line and 21-day SMA at 1.3621. A slide below this level would see the 50-DMA at 1.3511 come into focus. Deeper structural support resides at 1.3453, the 50% Fib of 1.3039-1.3867, below which the Jan. 19 low at 1.3321 may come quickly into focus.
GBP$ Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research previews next week's February RBNZ meeting and NZD outlook around meeting.

"Ahead of next week’s RBNZ meeting, our base case is for the OCR track to be adjusted higher, but below market current pricing, and as such, we see scope for a minor pullback in the NZD to below 0.60.

If this materialises, we view this as an opportunity to enter fresh long positions as we maintain our conviction of NZD appreciation to 0.64 at year end," ANZ notes.

"Our view is supported by positioning data which points to further room for a reduction in NZD/USD short positions. We have also revised up our farmgate milk price forecast to $9.50/kgMS for 2025/26 which points to further potential upside in the NZD from a terms-of-trade perspective," ANZ adds.

Bank of America Global Research discusses the scope for structural USD selling over the coming weeks.

"A report this week on China's regulator guiding banks to limit UST exposure weighed on USD, reigniting concerns around structural reallocation away from US assets. However, the diversification of China's holdings - both private and official - away from US assets has been evident in the data for a while. The share of USD bonds in China banks' external portfolio for instance already fell markedly in 2025," BofA notes.

"In terms of fresh structural USD selling, the focus should be on Europe where holdings are concentrated in equities with lower hedge ratios. Equity flows do not yet suggest a rush for the exit, but it seems likely that incremental flow will head more to non-US markets over time, in addition to the risk of higher hedge ratio," BofA adds.

• Eikon search string for individual stock moves: [STXBZ]

• The Day Ahead newsletter: Click here

• The Morning News Call newsletter: Click here

U.S. stock index futures were trading flat on Friday after an AI-led selloff, with investors staying on the sidelines ahead of inflation data that could provide more clarity on the Federal Reserve's rate-cut outlook. [.N]

• Pinterest Inc : BUZZ - Falls on weaker-than-expected revenue forecast

• Tri Pointe Homes Inc : BUZZ - Jumps after Sumitomo Forestry buyout deal

• Roku Inc : BUZZ - Shares climb as revenue forecast beats estimates

• Rivian Automotive Inc : BUZZ - Climbs on upbeat delivery outlook for cheaper R2 SUVs

• Prudential PLC : BUZZ - Shares fall for second day on Manulife read across

• Airbnb Inc : BUZZ - Shares climb as demand for premium stays persists

• Coherus Oncology Inc : BUZZ - Tumbles on $50 mln stock sale

• Hecla Mining Co :

• Coeur Mining Inc :

• Endeavour Silver Corp :

• Silvercorp Metals Inc :

BUZZ - Silver miners rise on dip-buying; markets await US inflation data

• Amkor Technology Inc : BUZZ - Falls on Kim Family's $488 mln secondary offering

• Newmont Corp :

• Gold Fields Ltd :

• AngloGold Ashanti PLC :

• Kinross Gold Corp :

BUZZ - Gold miners gain after bullion rises on dip-buying, markets await US inflation data

• Expedia Group Inc : BUZZ - Falls after forecasting slower 2026 adjusted core profit margin growth

(Compiled by Rajarshi Roy and Dharna Bafna)

• Only mid-way through Feb but EUR stalling could shape remainder of the mth

• Traders are still betting on a EUR/USD rise but position getting crowded

• The current net euro-long position is among the largest on record

• January saw EUR/USD climb clear above the 200-mth MA: closed below

• Failure to close above the average or the Sept 2025 1.1918 high significant

• Market has not closed above the 200MMA since 2015: currently at 1.1939

• EUR bulls watching potential 20-100 mth MA cross over: Jun 2022 last cross

• For now the trend is favouring longs but February could be a pivotal mth
EUR/USD Monthly Chart:


EUR/USD Weekly Chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of silver miners rise premarket, tracking gains in the white metal's prices [GOL/]

• Spot silver rises 3.9% to $78.11 per ounce

• Prices rise as bargain-hunters stepped in, with investors keeping an eye on key U.S. inflation data due later in the day for cues on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook

• Hecla Mining up 3.2%; Coeur Mining up 2.4%

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver up 3.2% and Silvercorp Metals advances 2.6%

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust ETF both up ~5%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

Feb 13 (Reuters) - FX traders hoping to take advantage of the usual bullish February trend can take comfort in current technical and fundamental factors.

An analysis of AUD/USD's February performance since 2000 shows it has risen in 17 of the past 26 years, or 65% of the time. However, seasonality should not be considered in isolation, it needs to be corroborated by other factors. AUD/USD is on course to notch a fifth straight week of gains on Friday as fat yield premiums underpinned demand, though a setback on Wall Street posed a challenge to risk sentiment. AUD/USD gains from the 2025 0.5910 low will likely continue in the weeks ahead. The 14-week momentum reading is positive, reinforcing the overall bullish market structure and pointing to an eventual break above the 0.7200 psychological level.

However, a break below last Friday's 0.6897 low would shift the medium-term bias back to the downside.
Weekly Chart


Seasonality Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY has risen from 152.70 to 153.60, on Friday, according to EBS data

• However, yen is set for its best week in close to 15 months

• Hawkish Bank of Japan policymaker signals rate-hike chance 'this spring'

• Japan PM adviser plays down need for reflationists to fill BOJ board

• Fiscal bets amplify a USD/JPY bearish engulfing pattern

• A large black candle on Monday completely engulfed a smaller white candle from Friday

• There is scope for an eventual drop below the 2026 152.10 low posted in late January

•
Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD drops to 0.7044 as risk aversion weighs on the risk-sensitive AUD

• Nikkei down 1.2% Friday, to follow Nasdaq's 2% fall on Thursday

• 0.7044 is the lowest level since Monday (0.7146 was three-year high Thursday)

• U.S. January data due at 1330 GMT; 0.3% MM, 2.5% YY expected

• USD might strengthen on hotter CPI data, or weaken on a cooler print

• Australia's conservative opposition picks a new leader amid ratings slump

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable falls to 1.3591 as risk aversion weighs on the risk-sensitive pound

• Nasdaq fell 2% on Thursday. 1.3591 is six pips shy of Monday's low

• Thursday's high was 1.3670, after 9.9 billion pound M&A deal boosted GBP

• 1.3670 was also the rally high from Wednesday's post-NFP data low (1.3610)

• U.S. January CPI data due at 1330 GMT; 0.3% MM, 2.5% YY expected

• Britain's most senior government official, Chris Wormald, stands down

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 4.9% in their biggest intraday pct loss since Feb 5

• Gold prices hit a one-week low overnight as strong US jobs data dampened near-term rate-cut expectation [GOL/]

• Northern Star Resources falls as much as 5.1% to A$27.89, while Evolution Mining is down 2.4%

• YTD, AXGD has gained 8.3% vs broader benchmark's 2.4% rise
(Reporting by Nichiket Sunil in Bengaluru)

• GBP/USD unchanged in Asia after closing unchanged on Thursday

• Rallies towards 1.3700 continue to be sold on dovish BoE expectations

• UK economy barely grew in Q4 as budget uncertainty weighed

• Easing political concerns limit downside for now but may flare up anytime

• U.S. CPI Fri key for Fed expectations; UK unemployment, inflation next week

• GBP/JPY finds some support ahead of 100-day MA at 207.08 Thu low 207.60

• Pair bounces to 208.77 as traders take profit after 3.2% drop from Mon high

• Upside limited on diverging BoE-BOJ expectations, UK politics, Takaichi win

• GBP resistance 1.3670, 1.3700, 1.3730-35, support 1.3590-1.3600, 1.3650

• Thursday range 1.36055-1.3670, Asia range 1.3617-1.3624
Latest UK gross domestic product (GDP) growth

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD flat Fri against backdrop of deteriorating global risk sentiment

• U.S. CPI due Fri (poll 2.5% y/y) will dictate Fed expectations near-term

• EU Q4 flash employment (poll +0.1% q/q) & GDP (poll +0.3%) also due Fri

• Reuters poll sees ECB keeping its 2.0% policy rate unchanged throughout 2026

• UST yields lower in wake of U.S. initial jobless claims 227k (poll +222k)

• Range Asia 1.1864-74, support 1.1572, resistance 1.2084, 1.21475
EUR Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY up 0.3% as traders take profit after sharp 3.65% drop from Mon high

• Supported by short-covering ahead of weekend and U.S. CPI Friday

• Japan seizes Chinese fishing boat off Nagasaki, arrests skipper

• Could lead to escalation in Japan-China tensions

• Takaichi comments in Nov sparked major diplomatic dispute with Beijing

• Rising BOJ rate hike expectations, safe-haven demand likely to cap USD rise

• BOJ board member Naoki Tamura speaks Friday, considered to be a hawk

• Japan PM adviser plays down need for reflationists to fill BOJ board

• Support 152.70, 152.30, 152.10; resistance 153.40-50, 153.70-80

• Asia range 152.70-153.35
Troubled waters:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Fri in wake of U.S. tech stock & precious metals sell-off

• Pair suffering from broader de-leveraging amid deteriorating risk sentiment

• RBA's hawkish bias & positive carry in favour of AUD will provide support

• Room for further downside short term, but key 0.6900 resistance should hold

• U.S. initial jobless claims 227k (poll +222k), CPI due Fri (poll 2.5% y/y)

• RBA Feb monetary policy meeting minutes due for release Tue 0030 GMT

• Range Asia 0.7081-935, support 0.7065 0.6900 0.6660, resistance 0.7158
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY consolidates in Asia after closing 0.35% lower on Thursday

• Undermined by flight to safe-haven JPY as risk aversion grips markets

• Tech stocks hit on concerns over disruptive potential of AI; US yields drop

• Dollar may find some respite after sharp 3.6% drop from Mon's 157.95 high

• But JPY set for strong finish to the week as BOJ rate hike expectations rise

• Why Japan's emboldened PM won't toy with risks of a weak yen

• US CPI Fri key for Fed expectations; BOJ board member Naoki Tamura speaks

• Support 152.30, 152.10, the 2026 low; resistance 153,40-50, 153.70-80

• Thursday range 152.28-153.76; Asia range 152.70-152.95
Yen moves against major currencies:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

ING Research previews next week's RBNZ meeting and NZD outlook.

"We have a preference for NZD over AUD in the near term. The technical picture is less stretched, and markets have more room to price in hikes on the NZD curve in our view.

The RBNZ meets on 18 February and will need to acknowledge inflation has been materially hotter than projected, and given the low starting point for rates, we could get some hawkish hints," ING notes.

"We’ll then need to wait until late April to see 1Q CPI numbers, meaning a potential hike would, if anything, become a possibility only from May onwards – but more likely from the summer. We remain bullish into year-end on NZD/USD given ample room for hawkish repricing and USD weakness," ING adds.

• NZD/USD -0.7% from Thur 0.6076 high amid U.S. tech & commodity jitters

• NZ Jan manufacturing PMI slips slightly to 55.2 (prior 56.1)

• RBNZ OCR decision due Wed, forward guidance critical for NZD trajectory

• NZD remains in 2026 rally for now, Jul 1 0.6120 high the topside target

• UST yields lower in wake of U.S. initial jobless claims 227k (poll +222k)

• U.S. CPI due Fri (poll 2.5% y/y) likely to impact Fed expectations

• Range NZ 0.60275-36, support 0.5930 0.5730 0.5580, resistance 0.6120
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD unchanged late Thur as precious metals & U.S. tech stocks falter

• U.S. CPI due Fri (poll 2.5% y/y) pivotal in shaping Fed thematic short term

• EU Q4 flash employment (poll +0.1% q/q) & GDP (poll +0.3%) also due Fri

• Reuters poll sees ECB keeping its 2.0% policy rate unchanged throughout 2026

• UST yields lower in wake of U.S. initial jobless claims 227k (poll +222k)

• Range early Asia 1.1864-705, support 1.1572, resistance 1.2084, 1.21475
EUR Weekly 52-WMA


EUR Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)