(Updates)

• Shares of gold miners down, tracking a decline in bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold down 4.3% at $4,608.48/ounce, its lowest since early february

• Bullion prices dip, as the Middle East conflict increased energy prices and ignited inflation concerns, raising expectations that top central banks will keep borrowing costs elevated

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining down 8.2% and 5.6%, respectively

• U.S.-listed shares of South African miners Gold Fields

down 5.6%, Harmony Gold falls 7.4%, AngloGold Ashanti dips ~9% and Sibanye Stillwater declines 9.9%

• Canadian miners Agnico Eagle Mines falls 5.3% and Kinross Gold declines 5.4%

(Reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru)

SocGen Research likes building long EUR/GBP positions around 0.86 level and maintains a short GBP/AUD position targeting 1.82.

"The expected Eurozone-US growth gap is back to where it was in 2024, and so is EUR/GBP. We don’t, however, see any reason to expect this gap to narrow and even a hawkish, inflation-concerned Bank of England MPC doesn't make us enthusiastic about selling EUR/GBP," SocGen notes.

"We still like building longs around EUR/GBP 0.86. We are short GBP/AUD," SocGen adds.

(Updates)

• Shares of silver miners fall, tracking prices of the white metal [GOL/]

• Spot silver down 10.3% at $67.54/ounce

• Prices fall as Middle East conflict increased energy prices and ignited inflation concerns, raising expectations that top central banks will keep borrowing costs elevated

• Shares of miners Hecla and Coeur down 12% and 10.6%, respectively

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver and Silvercorp Metals dip 13.4% and 12.5%, respectively

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust both plunge ~11%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

Credit Agricole CIB Research highlights 3 factors impacting AUD's latest bull run.

"The AUD’s strong run has been dented by several factors: (1) a hawkish tilt by the Fed with FOMC Chair Jerome Powell explicitly saying further falls in inflation were needed for rate cuts and that the war in the Middle East makes the outlook for inflation and therefore rates uncertain; (2) an escalation in the Middle East with Iran carrying out an attack on a major LNG site in Qatar, and (3) mixed Australian labour market data – while employment was stronger than expected in February, rising by 48.9k jobs vs the consensus expectation for a 20k job rise," CACIB notes.

"This leaves AUD/USD reacting more to events in the Middle East and so trapped trading in about a 0.70-0.71 range," CACIB adds.

Bank of America Global Research argues that Broad EUR-G10 FX weakness unlikely to extend. 

"It has been a tough - and, we would argue, somewhat unfairly tough - two weeks for EUR: in spot, it has only strengthened vs SEK within G10: it has been sold the most in near-dated options (Exhibit 2); and its skew has fallen meaningfully, esp. at the front end. The turnaround in sentiment has also been striking. This pressure on EUR sits slightly at odds with flows and the price action earlier this year," BofA notes.

"Our base case of no protracted conflict and no permanent energy scars means we maintain our bullish medium-term EUR view. The more limited move in back-end skew (in contrast to Ukraine in '22 and French election in '24) suggests the options market also views this as a temporary disruption," BofA adds.

• Crude oil has risen over $44 per barrel

• The dollar (safe asset) and currency exporter little changed past week

• Gold, perceived hedge for inflation, sold - down $700/oz

• Should stocks fall further - risk aversion may radically change situation

• Traders short of safer assets like USD and gold may be squeezed

• Intervention to support yen may shock crisis-hit markets

• SNB intervention may be driving FX markets - that's troubling

•
Brent, gold and USD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of silver miners fall premarket, tracking prices of the white metal [GOL/]

• Spot silver down 4.8% at $71.74/ounce

• Prices fall pressured by stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields

• Shares of miners Hecla and Coeur down 6.7% and 6.1%, respectively

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver and Silvercorp Metals dip 7.2% and 6.5%, respectively

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust both plunge ~6%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

• Shares in European copper miners drop on Thursday as copper hit its two-month low, pressured by rising oil prices, inflation concerns and a more hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve outlook

• The European Basic Resources index falls 3.7% in early trading

• Among single stocks, Boliden , Anglo American

and KGHM fall more than 4%

• UK's Antofagasta shares fall 5.9% to their lowest in two months

• Copper also weighed down by rising LME inventories, which have climbed to their highest since 2019

(Reporting by Jesus Calero)

• Cable holds below 1.33 after breaking below level during Powell briefing Wednesday

• Powell said he'll stay on as Fed leader if his successor is not confirmed by May

• Safe-haven dollar also benefits from higher oil prices as Iran war escalates

• 1.3251 was GBP/USD low in Asia (1.3220 was 14-week low last Friday)

• UK ex-bonus wages up 3.8% vs 4.0% expected. BoE rate hold expected at 1200 GMT

• Guardian-Sadiq Khan urges Labour to campaign to rejoin EU at next election (La Repubblica)

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Option barriers and other structures suggest a USD/JPY 160.00 break would trigger short gamma

• Short gamma positioning has the potential to drive USD/JPY demand and fuel volatility

• FX options recognise this risk - keeping implied volatility elevated, despite BoJ risk having passed

• Of course, A 160.00 break and increased volatility is what Japanese officials are warning against

• A 160.00 break would therefore raise intervention risk - another reason to own USD/JPY FX options

• Short-dated expiry FX options can capture and profit from increased volatility

• Related - FX option trade flow shows intervention line may have shifted higher
1-week and 1-month expiry USD/JPY FXO implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Seems some of BOJ Ueda comments at presser have struck a nerve with market

• Ueda fielding questions said biggest point for April meeting price outlook

• If there is a big enough risk, placing weight on that risk will prevail

• No doubt he is speaking on effect on prices of Hormuz Strait closure

• Importance will be put on BOJ's fresh April economic/price outlook

• From steady trading between 159.55-86, USD/JPY saw rush down to 159.25 EBS

• Action in thin trading in twilight zone between Tokyo close, London open

• USD/JPY to area of 100-HMA at 159.30, 159.23 hourly Ichimoku kijun

• Some bounce since but market looking to remain nervous for now

• See , for more click on [FXBUZ]


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD +0.4% Thur amid developing energy crisis, mixed employment data

• AU Feb employment +48.9k jobs (full-time -30.5k), 4.3% unemployment

• Futures market now pricing in RBA May OCR hike at 57% probability

• Brent crude surges above $110 a barrel as Iran targets energy facilities

• Trump denies prior knowledge of Israeli South Pars attack

• U.S. initial jobless claims due Thur, Reuters poll consensus +215k

• BoE & ECB policy rate meeting outcomes also Thur, no changes expected

• Range Asia 0.70225-555, support 0.6900, resistance 0.7250 0.7282
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD up 0.3% in Asia, trimming Wednesday’s 0.75% slide

• Boosted by rising possibility of U.S. getting more involved in Iran war

• U.S. weighs military reinforcements as Iran war enters possible new phase

• Upside limited as U.S. yields rally after Fed leaves rates steady

• Fed's hawkish hold, sticky inflation cast doubts on any easing in 2026

• BoE rate decision Thu; no change expected as war turns up inflation heat

• Central bank's monetary policy report and summary key; employment data due

• Support 1.3250, 1.3210-20, resistance 1.3325-30, 1.3370-80

• Wednesday range 1.3255-1.3374; Asia range 1.3251-1.3295
UK economy has flatlined since June:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Bank of America Global Research previews the March BoE policy meeting. 

"We change our BoE call from a cut to a hold in March at 3.75%, given the recent rise in energy prices which likely puts the BoE in wait and see mode.

We expect a 7-2 vote, with risks for 6-3. Assuming energy price moves reverse in the next couple of months, we expect two cuts in June and September (vs March/June before)," BofA notes.

"In FX, we do not believe that this meeting holds much significance for GBP given prevailing trends. Until there is clear read across into data and potential government announcements to circumvent potential cost of living headwinds, GBP is likely to remain beholden to broader FX trends. For now, GBP has been resilient. This could be put to the test at the start of May ahead of the local elections if domestic politics again becomes an issue," BofA adds.

• EUR/USD +0.2% Thur as markets assess latest U.S.-Iran war escalation

• ECB sets policy interest rates Thur, Reuters poll consensus no change

• Brent above $110 a barrel as Iran targets Gulf States energy facilities

• Break below 1.1390-1.1410 support zone would spur next leg lower

• U.S. initial jobless claims due Thur, Reuters poll consensus +215k

• Range Asia 1.1450-83, support 1.1409 1.1392, resistance 1.1667 1.2084
EUR Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD falls 0.2% in wake of mixed data, full-time jobs down 30.5k

• AU Feb employment +48.9k jobs, 4.3% unemployment (poll +20.0k jobs, 4.1%)

• Ongoing U.S.-Iran war developments driving risk aversion across markets

• Iran targets Middle East energy infrastructure, Brent above $110 a barrel

• U.S. initial jobless claims due Thur, Reuters poll consensus +215k

• BoE & ECB policy rate meeting outcomes also Thur, no changes expected

• Range Asia 0.70225-325, support 0.6900, resistance 0.7250 0.7282
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY well supported in Asia after closing 0.55% higher on Wednesday

• Boosted by surging oil prices as Iran war escalates; U.S. crude nears $100

• Buoyed by higher U.S. yields as Fed leaves rates steady in hawkish hold

• U.S. PPI jumps by most in 7 months in Feb, casts doubts on 2026 rate cut

• BOJ set to hold rates steady as Middle East conflict muddles outlook

• Resistance 160.00-10, 160.50, support 159.00-10, 158.50

• Wednesday range 158.565-159.905, Asia range 159.73-159.865
Annual change in US Producer Price Index:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold miners fall as much as 6.7%, their lowest level since November 25, 2025

• Spot gold trades lower after the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on Wednesday [GOL/]

• Gold miner Northern Star Resources sheds 6.4%, while Genesis Minerals down 7.3%

• Sub-index down 12.1% so far this year, including session's moves

(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)

• NZD/USD -1.3% from Wed 0.5872 high after NZ GDP misses forecasts

• NZ Q4 GDP +0.2% q/q, +1.3% y/y (Reuters poll: +0.4%, +1.7% respectively)

• Oil sharply higher after Iran flags attacks on energy infrastructure

• U.S.-Iran war escalation driving risk aversion across markets

• FOMC holds FFR steady, upgrades growth outlook, UST yields & DXY higher

• NZD post-Jan slump continues, break below 0.5710 would confirm bigger trend

• Range NZ 0.5789-0.5849, support 0.5710 0.5580, resistance 0.6092 0.6120
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

CIBC Research reacts to toady's March FOMC statement.

"The Federal Reserve held its policy rate steady at 3.50-3.75% as widely expected, and said very little about the outlook ahead as policymakers buy time to assess how persistent (or otherwise) the recent oil price shock may prove to be. Inflation continues to be described as "somewhat elevated", while the implications of developments in the Middle East are simply described as "uncertain"," CIBC notes.

"We currently forecast two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve during the second half of this year, which will bring rates down a neutral level, but that forecast also rests on the assumption that the ongoing conflict in Iran is fairly short-lived, meaning that gasoline prices will have moderated again by then and pass-through to core inflation will be limited," CIBC adds.

• AUD/USD -1.2% late Wed after FOMC holds FFR steady, but less dovish

• UST yields & DXY higher as Fed upgrades growth outlook, wary of Iran impact

• Iran threatens to attack energy infrastructure after South Pars hit

• U.S. equities under pressure, Brent oil +7.2%, Copper -3.4%, Gold -3.9%

• AUD pushing lower Hourly Bollinger Band, looks oversold short term

• AU Feb employment data due Thur, poll +20.0k jobs, 4.1% unemployment

• Overnight range 0.70189-0.71235, support 0.6900, resistance 0.7250 0.7282
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP$ slightly lower in NY afternoon, -0.18% at 1.3333; Wednesday range 1.3374-1.3305

• Fed holds rate steady, Fed awaiting more clarity on geopol, inflation & growth

• Mideast conflict wreaks havoc w/risk; equities lower, UST yields higher, oil near $100

• WTI/Brent oil spread widening as no letdown seen in Iran war, oil flow remains reduced

• BoE exp'd hold on Thursday, STIR mart pricing 80% odds for BoE hike into yearend 2026

• GBP$ res 1.3374 Wednesday pre-Fed high, 1.3400 100-DMA, 1.3438 200-DMA caps

• Supt 1.3305 daily low Mar 18, 1.3242 falling lower 30-d Bolli, 1.3220 daily low Mar 13

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1540 after the pair fell below 1.1520 in Europe's morning

• EUR/USD rallied toward the 10-DMA, hit 1.1556, a 4-session high, sellers then emerged

• Above estiamte US Feb. PPI drove yields & the US$ higher

• US$ buying intensified on safe-haven demand on report Iranian gas facility attacked by Israel

• Oil rallied sharply while riskiers assets were shunned in fovor of the dollar

• Gold , stocks dropped while USD/CNH rlalied and turned positive

• EUR/USD fell to 1.1491, bounced slightly, sat near 1.1505 ahead of the Fed announcement

• US$ softened after Fed left rates unch & release of latest inflation, GDP, rates projections

• EUR/USD rallied 1.1525 then pulled back slightly, neared 1.1515 into Powell's presser
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Research preview the BoE March policy meeting on Thursday.

"We expect balanced messaging and a 7:2 vote for a hold — we expect external members Taylor and Dhingra to vote for a cut. We expect the messaging to present the policy dilemma as a prolonged hold vs. a cut," MS notes.

"We expect the MPC to hold Bank Rate unchanged at next week’s meeting with a 7-2 vote. We expect the Committee to refrain from offering a strong steer on the near-term policy outlook, noting that in the current context of elevated uncertainty it will decide the appropriate degree of restriction at each meeting," GS notes.