• EUR/USD was falling before Iran conflict and deepened drop after

• Pair fell 1.2084 to 1.1742 before war then dropped to 1.1507

• Weak recovery to 1.1667 has followed - 23.6% 1.2084-1.1507 is 1.1643

• Deeper drop may follow failure to recover 200-DMA at 1.1677

• Oversold situation that developed ahead bounce now alleviated

• The 20-DMA has dropped below the 55-DMA - bearish signal

• More speculators still long 17 billion euros may book profits

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Laopu Gold climb 4.8% to HK$669.5, on course for the biggest one-day pct gain since February 16

• Stock touches the highest point since March 5, rising for the second session

• China-based gold jewellery maker and distributor expects 2025 net profit to jump 226%-233% y/y to 4.8-4.9 bln yuan ($699.30-$713.87 mln) with sales up 216%-227% y/y due to expansion of brand influence and product optimization

• YTD, stock up 4.1%, benchmark Hang Seng Index up 1%

($1 = 6.8640 Chinese yuan renminbi)

(Reporting by Donny Kwok)

• JPY again under pressure across the board, among crosses AUD/JPY shines

• USD/JPY 157.92 to 158.39 EBS, continuing move up from 157.26 yesterday

• Daily chart showing good bounce from now flat 157.20 daily Ichi tenkan

• For now above descending hourly Ichimoku cloud between 158.09-13

• Well above ascending 200-HMA at 157.42, above 100-HMA currently at 157.87

• Continuing Middle East conflict, affect on Japan energy needs concerning

• Higher inflation and possible stagflation on-going concerns

• This despite lower Feb corporate goods prices ,

• EUR/JPY 183.59-184.02 EBS, back in 183.33-184.33 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Underlining support eyed at ascending 100-DMA at 182.01

• CHF/JPY 202.76-203.63 and back at recent highs, 203.99 record high Mar 2

• AUD/JPY maybe best bid among yen crosses, 112.44 to 113.57 today

• Higher and towards 114.25 high dating back to November 1990

• Market expectations for successive RBA rate hikes very supportive

• Related , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Alchemy Resources rise 10% to A$0.011, their largest intraday pct gain since February 24

• Stock hits its highest level since March 3

• Mineral explorer to divest its Karonie and Lake Rebecca gold projects in Western Australia to Forrestania Resources

• Consideration for sale is A$5 million ($3.59 million)

• Alchemy says divestment strengthens financial position and enables co to redirect capital and management focus to projects that offer substantial growth potential

• Forrestania shares down 4.8% at A$0.6

• More than 2 million Alchemy shares change hands vs the 30-day average of around 1.4 million shares

• Alchemy stock up 10% YTD, including the day's moves

($1 = 1.3947 Australian dollars)
(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD +0.2% Wed as softer oil prices improve broad risk sentiment

• International Energy Agency proposes record strategic reserve oil release

• Trump claiming Iran war de-escalation imminent, but contradictions continue

• RBA Deputy Governor Hauser's hawkish comments Tue provides AUD tailwind

• U.S. Feb core CPI due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.2% m/m, +2.5% y/y

• Range Asia 0.71135-365, support 0.6944 0.6900, resistance 0.7248
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Auravelle Metals rise as much as 14.3% to A$0.016, set for their best intraday trading session since February 4

• Stock snaps two straight sessions of losses

• Diversified miner reports high gold grades found at its Nuckulla Hill Gold Project in South Australia

• Says further drilling in the prospect area is scheduled for the coming weeks

• YTD, stock up 13.3%, including the day's moves
(Reporting by Shivangi Lahiri in Bengaluru)

• Australia's gold stocks rise as much as 2.2%, on track to log second straight session of gains, if trend holds

• Gold rose nearly 2% globally on Tuesday, softer dollar and easing inflation concerns lift gains [GOL/]

• Gold miner Northern Star Resources rises as much as 2.2%, among the top movers; Genesis Minerals adds 1.3%

• Sub-index up 3.2% YTD, including session moves
(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• AUD/NZD continues to extend 11-month rally, +12.7% from Apr 1.0652 low

• Cross +0.7% Tue after RBA's Hauser re-enforced hawkish sentiment

• Markets now pricing in 25 bps hike at Mar 17 RBA monetary policy meeting

• AUD/USD hits 45-month high, rally further fanned by improved risk sentiment

• NZD/USD recovery less convincing as energy price uncertainty weighs heavily

• Trump claiming Iran war de-escalation imminent but oil supply remains choked

• AUD/NZD range Tue 1.1911-1.2019, support 1.1815 1.1525, resistance 1.2101
AUD/NZD Monthly


AUD/NZD Daily Fibo Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Goldman Sachs Research previews the US February CPI report on Wednesday. 

"We expect a 0.17% increase in February core CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.42% (vs. +2.5% consensus)," GS notes.

"We expect a 0.18% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), reflecting higher food (+0.1%) and energy (+0.5%) prices. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.24% increase in core PCE in February," GS adds.

• AUD/USD +2.4% from Mon 0.69565 low, Trump's comments improve risk appetite

• Claims that Iran war de-escalation is imminent seem to lack substance

• Oil off highs, but tension simmers as Middle East supply remains choked

• AUD set to extend 11-month rally with hawkish RBA lurking in background

• U.S. Feb core CPI due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.2% m/m, +2.5% y/y

• Overnight Range 0.7075-0.7168, support 0.6944 0.6900, resistance 0.7248
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar weakened as oil plunged on Tuesday after reports that tankers were passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while equities were further supported by hopes for a swift resolution to the Iran conflict. Following comments from U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday suggesting the Iran war could end soon, he said that it's possible he would be willing to talk with Iran but that it depends on the terms. A White House spokesperson later said operations in Iran will end when Trump decides objectives have been met and Iran has unconditionally surrendered. G7 energy ministers, while confirming readiness, stopped short of approving a strategic oil-reserve release on Tuesday, instead asking the IEA to review conditions before any action. Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said that Israel was not seeking an endless war with Iran and would coordinate with the United States on when to end the conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin has discussed the conflict in the Middle East with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, the Kremlin said. In data, U.S. home sales beat expectations as attention turns to Wednesday’s key CPI release. Currency volatilities across tenors -- including elevated butterflies -- fell while bullish USD risk reversals eased as surface flattens.

EUR/USD held within a 1.1607–1.1667 range after buyers emerged near 1.1620, ending the session with a doji that highlights lingering bullish concerns as the monthly RSI trends lower and the pair continues to trade below the 200-DMA.

USD/JPY formed a doji near 157.50 as risk sentiment improved, with dollar weakness offset by gains in yen crosses. AUD/JPY hit a new multi-year high on metals and pre-RBA positioning.

AUD/USD rose to a 3-3/4-year peak at 0.7168 before easing toward 0.7130 late in the session, though techs remain bullish with a monthly bull hammer underpinning.

GBP/USD rose after breaking above the 200-DMA, supported by weaker oil prices, easing UK fiscal concerns, softer gilt yields, and optimism that the Iran conflict may end soon.

Treasury yields were down as much as 2 basis points as the curve steepened. The 2s-10s curve was up about 1 basis point to +55.9bp.

The S&P 500 rose 0.15%.

Gold rose 1.1% while copper gained 1.5%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.10%, USD/JPY +0.16%, GBP/USD -0.07%, AUD/USD +0.85%, DXY -0.38%, EUR/JPY +0.07%, GBP/JPY +0.11%, AUD/JPY +1.03%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

• GBP$ near session high in NY afternoon. +0.2% at 1.3465; Tues range 1.3481-1.3414

• Oil below Mon's high by $120, -14% by $80; talk sanctions being lifted aids slide

• GBP$ breaks above 200-DMA (1.3444), moves into daily cloud (1.3453-1.3614)

• President Trump notes US-Israel, allies successes vs Iran, war may end shortly

• UK fiscal concerns ebb; UK 10y gilt off high yield near 4.8% aid GBP rise from 1.33

• Ex-Mideast, LSEG's IRPR indicates BoE cut expectations below Fed in 2026

• Wednesday's US CPI in focus, CPI y/y f/c steady at 2.4%, core seen steady at 2.5%

• GBP$ res 1.3481 Tues high, 1.3494 falling 10-DMA, 1.3561 50% Fib of 1.3867-1.3255

• Supt 1.3444 flat 200-DMA- fmr res, 1.3414 daily low Mar 10, 1.3373 rising 100-HMA

• Despite oil slide, Mideast optimism, missiles continue to fly posing risks to mkts

Sterling Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Nomura Research likes short AUD/NZD ahead of the RBA March-17 meeting.

"Locally, the RBA governor provided temporary support for AUD in noting that the bank would respond to any rise in inflation expectations, and that all policy meetings, including the 17 March meeting were "live". However, our base case remains for only one more hike, in May, and we think the market is likely pricing too much hiking this year, though we concede that the March meeting is indeed live, with market pricing of around 7bp for this meeting roughly fair in our view," Nomura notes.

"We are more positive on NZD than AUD, as: 1) we expect New Zealand growth momentum to outperform, given still-easy monetary policy; 2) dairy prices have bounced this year; and 3) positioning favours NZD over AUD, in our view. We therefore add a short AUD/NZD trade to our "watchlist" with a conviction of 2/5, and look for external volatility to stabilise in order to give us a firmer conviction on this relative value play," Nomura adds.

• AUD/NZD tags 1.20 as momentum builds ahead of next week's RBA decision (Mar 17)

• RBA Dep Gov strikes hawkish tone - rate hike odds now 66%, from 30%

• Gov Bullock's already set the stage flagging oil pass-through risk

• Consequently, AUD risks lean higher into meeting

• Meanwhile, AUD's resilience against geo noise gives bulls additional conviction

• Crowded positions have been a known risk, but market has rewarded those who held

• AUD/NZD is still preferred expression for AUD topside. Cleaner than AUD/USD
audnzd vs spreads


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Bank of America Global Research expects GBP resilience to continue in the near-term.

"Whisper it quietly, but GBP has shown impressive resilience against the backdrop of elevated geopolitical uncertainty. For many reasons, GBP would not appear on most investors' list of currencies for relative outperformance. We think the nature of the initial shock has defined broader G10 FX price action: a combination of relative terms of trade shifts and FX positioning. The crucial factor for asset performance is of course depth and tenure of the current bout of uncertainty," BofA notes.

"Given the current setup, GBP resilience should continue, but our concerns are two-fold: cross-asset measures of volatility remain muted; whilst macro data is yet to capture in the impact on inflation and sentiment. Rising volatility presents the greatest risk to GBP whilst the vol curve is underpricing risks around the UK local elections. We think the case for hedging GBP risk is well advised," BofA adds.

• EUR/CHF has traded a 23 pip EBS range thus far Tuesday; 0.9025-0.9048

• 0.9048 is also high water-mark since Monday's EBS 11-year low of 0.8981

• Resistance levels include 0.9067 (EBS high last Friday) and 0.91

• Safe-haven franc supported by high energy prices on Iran war

• Wood Mackenzie flags risk of oil price rising as high as $200 this year

• SNB/ECB is expected to keep its policy rate at zero/2% next week (March 19)

EURCHF


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research highlights few reasons for CAD’s relative outperformance.

"First, the risk-off impulse has played a key role in the FX market’s reaction last week with the Dollar seeing across the board outperformance and we find that CAD tends to trade with a strong beta to the broad Dollar.

We’ve also found that CAD typically outperforms on crosses during episodes of broad Dollar appreciations outside of the safe havens CHF and JPY, and CAD’s outperformance over the past week is broadly in line with historical performance," GS notes.

"Still, CAD is a more procyclical currency and outperformed not only its beta to the Dollar, but also its beta to risk. We think this can be attributed to the terms of trade impacts from the spike in oil prices, which we’ve noted can serve as a differentiating driver of CAD as Canada is a primary exporter of oil to the United States and a growing exporter to China," GS adds.

Morgan Stanley Research maintains a short EUR/CHF position targeting a move towards 0.87.

"We continue to recommend short EUR/CHF positions. EUR/CHF tends to decline when oil prices rise and the oil futures curve is sharply downward sloping, as may extend in the wake of current events in the middle east. Short EUR/ CHF is therefore an effective hedge against further widening of the conflict in the gulf in additional to fundamental tailwinds to CHF," MS notes.

"EUR/CHF has broken below the 0.9025 lows, and we see a break below 90 as opening potential to further psychological levels below. Each psychological level to the downside may open further CHF upside potential in percentage terms," MS adds.

March 10 (Reuters) - As the war pressure eases on Tuesday, the AUD focus might switch briefly to the Australian interest rate outlook.

The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on March 17 and analysts are looking for a 25-basis point rate hike. The domestic inflation outlook was already hawkish before the recent jump in oil prices and despite U.S. officials suggesting the war with Iran could end soon, the volatility in the energy market is likely to fan consumer price rises.

There are fears that the RBA could fall further behind the inflation curve unless a more aggressive policy stance is adopted. A further 25-basis point rate hike in May is becoming increasingly likely.

AUD/USD is set for a third session of gains and a breach of the recent 0.7146 2026 high could trigger a strong resumption of the underlying bull trend, which took the Aussie from 0.6422 in November 2025 to 0.7146 in February. The 10-week moving average has defined the bull run and although briefly breached this week, the long-term support remains intact at 0.6997, on a closing basis.

The last time AUD/USD was above 0.7146 was January 2023 and the last time it was convincingly above that level was May-June 2022. A drop under last week's 0.6945 low would negate the near-term bullish outlook.
AUD/USD daily chart:


AUD/USD Weekly Chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of cryptocurrency and blockchain-related companies rise premarket

• Bitcoin , the world's biggest cryptocurrency, up 3.2% at $71,261.51, while Ether rises 2.1% to $2,069.03

• Crypto exchange Coinbase Global rises 3.5%; Blockchain farm operator Bitfarms Ltd adds 1.9%

• Crypto miners: Riot Platforms Inc , MARA Holdings , Hut 8 and Bit Digital gain between 2.4% and 2.7%

• BTC buyer Strategy climbs 3.3%

• BTC mining machine maker Canaan Inc up 2%

• ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF and iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF add 3.2% each

• YTD, BTC and ETH down 18.7% and 30.5%, respectively

(Reporting by Avinash P In Bengaluru)

(Corrects day on the fourth line)

• Oil falls as Trump predicts Middle East de-escalation, which has helped the yen

• USD/JPY's bias is tilted to the downside, Monday's price action shows

• The long upper shadow of Monday's candlestick line points to an upside rejection

• USD/JPY has slumped from 157.95 to 157.26, on Tuesday, EBS data shows

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Long liquidation evident before Iran conflict intensified after it began

• Pair fell 1.2084-1.1742 and closed 1.1816 on Feb 27

• EUR/USD dropped 1.1796-1.1507 after U.S. launched attack

• Between Feb 10 and Mar 6 bullish wagers cut from $27 billion to $20 billion

• The 21-DMA is dropping below the 55-DMA (both 1.1760) - bearish signal

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable rises to 1.3474 as risk-sensitive pound benefits from lower oil prices

• Oil prices lower on Trump saying Iran war could end "very soon"

• 1.3474 is the highest level since March 2 (1.3498 was the high that day)

• Monday's Asian session low was 1.3283, as oil prices soared

• Morgan Stanley still sees three BoE rate cuts, to 3.0%, in pipeline

• Fed, BoE are expected to keep rates unchanged next week (March 18/19)

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/14.00 GMT on Tuesday March 10

• EUR/USD: 1.1580-85 (1BLN), 1.1595-1.1605 (1.9BLN), 1.1610-20 (880M)

• 1.1635-40 (1.5BLN), 1.1650 (1.5BLN), 1.1695-1.1700 (4.7BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.7725 (560M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3325 (300M), 1.3350 (260M), 1.3550 (200M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7035 (430M), 0.7100 (703M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3535 (213M), 1.3550 (191M), 1.3665-70 (397M)

• USD/JPY: 157.00 (460M), 157.55 (312M), 157.75 (622M)

• 158.00 (344M), 158.30 (446M)(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)