• Shares of copper miners rise, tracking gains in prices of the red metal [MET/L]

• Benchmark copper on London Metal Exchange up 1.7% at $12,901 a metric ton, its highest since March 17

• Copper prices hit their highest in more than three weeks as investors weigh signs of improved demand in top metals consumer China against uncertainty over a fragile ceasefire in the Iran war

• U.S.-listed shares of global mining giants Rio Tinto

up 1.8% and BHP Group rise marginally

• Miners Southern Copper and Freeport-McMoRan

gain 2.6% and 2.1%, respectively

• Canada's Hudbay Minerals jumps 3%, Ero Copper

adds 1.7% and Teck Resources up 3.5%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

Credit Agricole CIB Research sees a limited scope for further USD downside from current levels.

"We doubt that the latest FX price action is the beginning of a downtrend for the USD, however. This is because of two considerations: (1) there is still a huge amount of uncertainty in the Middle East, suggesting that the conflict is far from resolved and delaying any normalisation of the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz; and (2) a sustained decline of global energy prices remains a distant prospect and would suggest that the economies of energy importers like the Eurozone are still to experience the negative consequences from the energy supply shock triggered by the war," CACIB notes.

"This could mean that demand for the safe-haven USD may not weaken significantly further and could undermine the appeal of EUR-denominated assets for example," CACIB adds.

Technical signals, positioning and yield differentials indicate EUR/USD bulls may be targeting January's high.

The currency pair reached a 1-1/2-month high Friday, driven by evolving expectations regarding interest rates. Following the March U.S. CPI report, short-term interest rate markets indicate traders expect the Fed to hold rates steady for the remainder of 2026, while euro zone markets continue to price in potential rate hikes from the ECB during the same period. This shifting landscape, coupled with tightening U.S.-German 2-year yield spreads , diminishes the dollar's yield advantage over the euro, potentially underpinning a EUR/USD rally.

Additionally, the latest CFTC data reveals that net-euro positions are nearly flat, suggesting minimal selling pressure from investors looking to exit long-euro positions. This could lead to amplified bullish impacts in EUR/USD, resulting in larger-than-normal price movements.

Technically, the pair exhibits bullish momentum, with today's rebound from the 55- and 200-day moving averages and the formation of a daily bull hammer candle. The daily and monthly RSI readings indicate upward momentum remains, reinforcing the bullish outlook.

Resistance at 1.1800 poses a challenge, but if breached, January's monthly high of 1.2084 becomes a clear target for traders.
deus


eurcftc


eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses its latest Fed call.

"Our recent forecast revisions showed slightly softer growth and higher inflation, yet we retained our forecast for two Fed cuts this year.

We still expect cuts this year given the Fed's bias to look through supply-driven inflation, a stable but fragile labor market, little signs of wage pressures, and political pressure," BofA notes.

"While risks are tilted towards no cuts, by September, Warsh should be in and have enough evidence of inflation cooling to rally support for a couple of cuts," BofA adds.

ANZ Research discusses AUD outlook over the coming week.

"The AUD bounced back above 0.7050 for the first time in nearly three weeks on improving risk sentiment. We think near-term upside is likely capped at a year-to-date high of 0.7187 because negotiations in the Middle East conflict are ongoing. A clear reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would likely see the pair above 0.72. Until then, a range of 0.7–0.72 is likely to hold, near term, ANZ notes.

"March’s Labour Force survey is out next Thursday, and we expect 15k growth in employment and unemployment rate at 4.2% Since the announcement of a two-week ceasefire, rate hike expectations for both the BoE and ECB have reduced. Hawkish expectations for the RBA have remained largely unchanged, which confirms our negative bias for both GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD, though a short EUR/AUD position may see better carry returns," ANZ adds.

• Cable has traded a 32.5 pip range since the London open; 1.3443 = session high

• 1.3443 is 14 pips shy of Thursday high (1.3484 was Wednesday's five-week high)

• US March CPI data is due at 1230 GMT; 3.3% YY expected (Reuters poll)

• Hotter than expected CPI would be a blow for doves advocating Fed cut this year

• U.S. CPI >3.3% might also lift the dollar, depress GBP/USD towards 1.3400

• Gilt yields rise for second consecutive day. Three MPC members speak next week

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD hit 0.7086 in Asia, sellers emerged, 0.7054 traded in Europe's morning

• NY opened near 0.7065, the pair traded down -0.25% in early action

• Lower US yields , USD/CNH slide from its high helped contain losses

• Gold's drop & AUD/JPY turn lower helped to limit AUD/USD's topside

• AUD/USD traded within Thursday's daily range but above the 55-DMA, daily cloud

• Daily RSI is falling but monthly RSI is rising & pair may now be consolidating recent gains

• March CPI & April U of Michigan survey are key data risks in NY's morning
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

April 10 (Reuters) - There is a growing threat of a move lower in sterling versus the dollar, potentially ending a five-day bull run.

That threat is becoming more visible across moving-average structures. The 50-day moving average is poised to cross below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. The 50-DMA sits just four pips above the 100-day average and nine pips above the more significant 200-DMA, leaving the market on the verge of a death cross.

A death cross in technical analysis is a bearish chart signal that occurs when a shorter-term moving average crosses below a longer-term moving average. Most commonly, it means the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average. Traders often interpret it as a sign that momentum may be weakening and that a downtrend could develop.

GBP/USD is also being weighed down by a thickening and falling daily Ichimoku cloud. The cloud base is close to the market price, currently at 1.3475. Sterling has been trading below the Ichimoku cloud on a closing basis since March 2.

The bias is bearish on Friday, and should GBP/USD close the week in negative territory, more downside pressure is likely to emerge next week. The main downside targets are 1.3322, the daily Ichimoku kijun-sen, and 1.3160, the March 31 low.
GBP/USD daily chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD closed bullishly above the 200, 100 and 55-DMAs on Thursday

• Pair closed 1.1699 but peak 20-day Bollinger Bands is 1.1696

• Stretched nature of rise is limiting further gains

• Lack of a notable pullback suggests bigger rise

• Halfway point of 2026 slide from 1.2084 to 1.1409 at 1.1747 is next level

• Traders have erased a $27 billion bullish bet freeing the euro to ro rise

• FX traders have prepared for higher US CPI and that matters

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 21 pip range thus far Friday; 1.3415-1.3436

• 1.3415 is also the low water-mark since Thursday's 1.3457 peak

• Thursday's peak was scaled on news Israel seeks Lebanon talks

• 1.3484 was Wednesday's five-week high, after Iran ceasefire news

• GBP/USD was sub-1.33 pre-ceasefire news. Thursday's low was 1.3383

• U.S. March CPI data due at 1230 GMT; 3.3% YY f/c. Core f/c 2.7% YY

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of gold explorer Kaiser Reef fall nearly 10% to A$0.275, set for worst day since March 23

• Co reports lower q-o-q production for its Henty and Maldon gold mines

• Qtrly gold production at Henty at 5,188oz vs 6,946oz; Maldon qtrly gold production 346oz vs 715oz

• About 5.8mln shares traded so far, 2.1x 30-day average

• YTD, stock down 5.2%
(Reporting by Jasmeen Ara Shaikh in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Australia's Tivan rise as much as 12.4% to A$0.363, their biggest intraday pct gain since March 10

• Stock touches highest level since March 13

• Critical minerals explorer finds copper-gold reserves across multiple sites at its Baucau and Ossu projects in Timor-Leste

• Stock up 13.1% so far this week, set for its best week since early-Feb

• Stock up 25.5% YTD, including day's moves

(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• GBP/USD +1.8% wtd as USD index struggles ahead of U.S.-Iran peace talks

• Fragile ceasefire holding for now, but traders remain wary of deterioration

• Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic continues to be effectively stalled

• U.S. Mar core CPI due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +0.3% m/m, +2.7% y/y

• UK Feb GDP, industrial output, trade balance updates all due Apr 16

• U.S. Q4 GDP +0.5% q/q (poll +0.7%), initial jobless claims 219k (poll 210k)

• Range Asia 1.3421-36, support 1.3160 1.3040, resistance 1.3867 1.4250
GBP Daily 52-WMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +2.8% wtd as U.S.-Iran ceasefire delivering improved risk sentiment

• Pair moves towards striking distance of 0.71875 year-to-date high

• Israel seeking talks with Lebanon, eases concern of ceasefire derailment

• Strait of Hormuz shipping movements still effectively stalled

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking in New York Mon evening

• Range Asia 0.7071-855, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7188 0.7282
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD up to 1.1723 EBS yesterday before pulling back, Asia 1.1686-1.1701

• Despite some easing, EUR/USD still relatively bid, more so than JPY

• EUR/USD holding just below 1.1716-1.1807 descending daily Ichimoku cloud

• Move back into cloud maybe only a matter of time

• This especially if the Middle East ceasefire holds over the weekend

• Flat-ish 200 and 100-DMAs in area at 1.1672 and 1.1693, respectively

• Hourly chart show EUR/USD above its 1.1622-74 Ichimoku cloud, to hold above?

• On options front, E1 bln expiries today between 1.1695-1.1700

• Some gravitational pull eyed, also expiries at 1.1725, 1.1740-45 E883 mln

• At 1.1800 strike, E1.3 bln in expiries today, likely to help cap rallies

• EUR/JPY holding bid, 186.01-10 EBS after push up to 186.21 yesterday

• High yesterday best since 186.40 on February 9, recent peak 186.87 Jan 23

• Support from hourly Ichimoku tenkan at 186.00, kijun 185.55 below

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/USD:


EUR/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY holding relatively bid still with Middle East ceasefire in question

• Market also wary ahead of the weekend, plenty could take place

• USD/JPY 158.97-159.10 EBS so far, follows 158.53-159.30 range yesterday

• Threat of FX intervention again, more official jaw-boning expected again

• Techs show USD/JPY holding above 158.65-96 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Descending 100/200-HMAs just above at 159.18/159.23, a sell above?

• JGB-US Treasury rate differential up in short-end but long-end still narrow

• In options, massive $2.1 bln expiries today between 158.00-10

• Also 159.50 $431 bln and larger $967 mln up at 160.00

• Related comments , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Middle East , , ,

• On Fed , , US data
USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD +0.6% from Thur 0.5818 low amid uplift in broader risk appetite

• Pair breaks above 0.5849 200-DMA, door open for run at 0.5891 resistance

• A more hawkish sounding RBNZ has invigorated buyers for time being

• Fears of ceasefire derailment allayed by reports Israel seeking Beirut talks

• NZ Mar manufacturing PMI 53.2 (prior 55.0), remains in expansionary zone

• U.S. Q4 GDP +0.5% q/q (poll +0.7%), initial jobless claims 219k (poll 210k)

• Range NZ 0.5851-63, support 0.5680 0.5580, resistance 0.5918 0.6092
NZD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

ANZ Research maintains a bullish bias on Gold over the medium-term.

"We believe fundamentals for gold are still supportive, though guidance from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) suggests a cautious monetary policy response. We expect the Fed to look through the first-round effects of the conflict – potential broadbased price rises, increases in wage pressures and/or a surge in inflation expectations – in the coming months to assess whether second-round effects become persistent. Meanwhile, inflation expectations remain well-behaved, though 12-month-ahead inflation expectations have risen to 3.8%," ANZ notes.

"We still expect three more Fed rate cuts in this easing cycle: two in 2026 and one in 2027. The decisions could be deferred by rising energy prices but not reversed. Other factors, such as economic growth risks, worsening geopolitical relations, currency volatility and downside risks to equity markets will continue to support gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier. We believe fresh investment and retail demand will emerge below USD4,500/oz," ANZ adds.

• AUD/USD +0.9% from Thur 0.7023 low as positive risk sentiment persists

• Israel seeking talks with Lebanon after putting U.S.-Iran ceasefire at risk

• U.S. Q4 GDP +0.5% q/q (poll +0.7%), initial jobless claims 219k (poll 210k)

• AUD gathering momentum for run at 0.71875 ytd high, hawkish RBA may assist

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking in New York Mon evening

• Overnight range 0.7023-945, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7188 0.7282
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The euro climbed on Thursday, supported by firmer European yields and an improving risk tone after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the start of peace talks with Lebanon and discussions about Hezbollah disarmament, even as fighting continued. Axios reported that negotiations between Israel and Lebanon would start next week at the U.S. State Department in Washington. Netanyahu's announcement follows Israel's biggest strike of the war in Lebanon and multiple officials advocating for a temporary ceasefire to allow for broader talks. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Israeli strikes on Lebanon violate the ceasefire agreement and would render upcoming negotiations meaningless. EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas said the ceasefire agreement between the U.S and Iran should extend to Lebanon, adding that Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah must disarm. A statement from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamene said Iran will enter a new phase in managing the Strait and does not seek war though vows to defend its rights. Russia’s TASS reported that Iran will permit no more than 15 vessels a day through the Strait under its ceasefire. NATO chief Mark Rutte said allies are meeting Trump’s demands despite some delays and advocated for greater defense spending by allies to reduce reliance on the U.S. Disappointed in NATO's recent support, Trump is weighing pulling some U.S. troops from Europe, according to Reuters.

Already positioned for a more constructive risk backdrop ahead of U.S.–Iran talks, sentiment accelerated following Netanyahu’s remarks.

The dollar index fell toward its 100-day average at 98.65 and Wednesday’s low, with improved risk appetite lifting the Antipodeans and Scandies.

FX implied volatility fell broadly, with one-month yen vols close to their YTD low near 7.6%, though DXY risk reversals were mostly steady.

EUR/USD broke above its 55- and 100-day moving averages to briefly hit a one-month high at 1.1723 on broad dollar weakness, firmer European yields and EUR/JPY strength, leaving near-term momentum tilted toward bulls into Friday.

AUD/USD rebounded sharply in New York to 0.7095, buoyed by firmer risk sentiment and falling U.S. yields, with momentum turning constructive and near-term upside favored as long as gains hold above the mid-0.70 area.

GBP gained 0.4% on firmer risk sentiment, briefly clearing the 200-day moving average and keeping upside focus on the 1.3485–1.3500 zone, though momentum may be tempered ahead of U.S. CPI risks skewed to the upside.

USD/JPY was capped near its 21-day moving average at 159.22 as firmer risk sentiment, sliding volatility and steady oil supported yen crosses, leaving the pair range-bound with downside risks slightly favored ahead of Friday’s U.S. CPI.

Treasury yields were mostly steady as the curve steepened. The 2s-10s curve was up marginally to +50.8bp.

The S&P 500 rose 0.45%.

WTI oil was up over 4% though off session highs.

Gold rose 1.1% while copper slipped 0.2%

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.31%, USD/JPY +0.25%, GBP/USD +0.27%, AUD/USD +0.48%, DXY -0.32%, EUR/JPY +0.55%, GBP/JPY +0.54%, AUD/JPY +0.73%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

• NY opened near 0.7030 after AUD/USD traded downward in Asia & Europe

• Pair rallied early with help from AUD/JPY gains, USD/CNH drop from its high

• Rally intensified as riskier assets firmed up; stocks, gold, silver traded upward

• US$, yields fell sharply on report Israel, Lebanon could begin talks

• Stocks, silver turned positive, USD/CNH turned lower & gold added to earlier gains

• AUD/USD hit 0.7095 in NY's afternoon, traded up +0.72% late in the day

• Rising daily, monthly RSIs, daily bull hammer are bullish tech signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research discusses the latest updates to its Oil forecasts amid the latest developments in the Middle East.

"The US and Iran agreed on a 2-week ceasefire, whose terms include reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) and halting attacks, which reduced nearby Brent (June contract) and WTI (May contract) futures down to the mid-$90s/bbl today (April 8th). These developments are largely in line with our baseline expectation that energy flows through the Strait start to recover this weekend, followed by a gradual 1-month recovery in Persian Gulf exports to pre-war levels," GS notes.

"We keep our 2026Q3/Q4 oil price forecast unchanged at $82/80 for Brent and $77/75 for WTI. Given the reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve and already edging up oil flows through the SoH, we nudge down our Q2 forecast for Brent/WTI to $90/87," GS adds.

• GBP (+0.4%) grinds higher with broader risk sentiment. Range: 1.3383/1.3456

• Pre-conflict levels at 1.3485/1.3500 is the key topside focal point

• Held through Wed's session, break here would be notable for bulls - opens up 1.36

• 200DMA (1.3416) breached on reports that Israel seeks Lebanon talks

• Aside from geo risks, eyes on U.S. CPI due Fri - risks skew towards a hot print
GBPUSD hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Morgan Stanley Research previews the US March CPI report on Friday.

"We expect core CPI to rise 0.19% m/m (2.6% y/y), slightly below February. We forecast core goods in positive territory, but likely close to the 0% mark. We think the tariff pass-through continued in March, but we also anticipate soft cars inflation and deceleration in apparel after February's strong reading. Core services decelerate due to seasonal payback and despite stronger rents and positive airfares inflation," MS notes.

"Headline comes at 0.84%m/m (3.3%y/y, NSA Index: 330.337) as higher oil boosts gasoline – this would be the highest reading since the disruption in oil markets related to the RussiaUkraine conflict in 2022," MS adds.