MUFG Research maintains its call for a final ECB hike in September.

"After attempting to break below the 1.1400-level again yesterday, EUR/USD has since risen back up to within touching distance of 1.1450 overnight. The euro has benefitted from the pullback for the US dollar after the FOMC minutes were less hawkish than feared, and the price of Brent dropping back below USD80/barrel overnight. At the same time, the euro-zone rate market has moved to price in a higher probability of further ECB rate hikes with the market leaning more towards two rather one final hike," MUFG notes.

"The hawkish repricing has been encouraged by the jump in oil prices yesterday triggered by renewed tensions in the Middle East, and hawkish comments from ECB officials. Governing Council member Joachim Nagel indicated that further hikes maybe required while expressing concern by the renewed tensions in the Middle East. At current energy price levels, we remain comfortable with our call for one final hike in September," MUFG adds.

AUD/USD edged higher on Thursday, but the move since June 30 looks more like a corrective bounce within a broader downtrend rather than a genuine reversal, meaning long positions in the pair now hinge on the upcoming U.S. June CPI report for validation.

Technically, the picture is mixed: AUD/USD sits above its rising 200-day moving average, a bullish signal, yet it is consolidating its decline from the June 15 high—a bearish sign. This consolidation is unfolding while the pair remains below its 21-day moving average and below key structural resistance in the 0.6980-0.7010 zone. If AUD/USD fails to break above this resistance soon, long holders may start exiting while bears add to short positions, a combination that could reignite the longer-term downtrend.

The critical catalyst is the U.S. June CPI report due Monday, July 14. If core inflation matches or comes in slightly below expectations, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields

could fall as markets price in a less hawkish Fed , potentially fueling a sharp AUD/USD rally that clears the 0.6980-0.7010 resistance and targets the 0.7200 area.

Conversely, a hotter-than-expected inflation print could send the dollar and rates higher, triggering selling pressure on AUD/USD. In that scenario, the pair could break below its 200-day moving average and the June and March lows, shifting focus toward the 0.6675-0.6725 zone as the next downside target.
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses the scope for another round of JPY intervention by Japan's MoF.

"The rule of thumb that ¥1 trillion of intervention moves USD/JPY by roughly one yen appears broadly consistent with the April-May intervention episode  

For example, if intervention were to begin with USD/JPY in the 163s, pushing the exchange rate below 155-and thereby exceeding market expectations-could require intervention on the order of ¥10 trillion in a single day, or more than ¥15 trillion across multiple operations," BofA notes

"The hurdle for a Bank of Japan rate hike at the July meeting appears high, while the following policy meeting is not until mid-September. Against that backdrop, the possibility of more aggressive intervention cannot be ruled out," BofA adds.

• AUD/USD rallied to 0.6946 then fell towards 0.6930 into NY's open

• The pair traded close to flat and held a tight range in overnight trading

• Rallies in gold, silver, equities & the drop in USD/CNH lifted the pair

• US yield gains & USD bounce from its low weighed the pair

• AUD/USD hold below 21-DMA & 0.6980/90 zone are concerns for bulls

• Hold above the 10-DMA & rising RSIs give bulls some comfort though

• US weekly, continuing jobless claims are risks in NY's morning
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of copper miners rise premarket, tracking gains in prices of the red metal [MET/L]

• Benchmark copper on London Metal Exchange up 2.1% at $13,437 a ton

• Prices dropped 1.5% on Wednesday on demand concerns after U.S. President Donald Trump said the memorandum of understanding with Iran to end the Gulf conflict was "over"

• Copper prices rebound on Thursday as the market hopes for another de-escalation in hostilities in the Gulf and the U.S. dollar dips after its recent surge

• Shares of global mining giant BHP Group rise 1.3%

• Miners Southern Copper up 1.8% and Freeport-McMoRan adds 1.6%

• Canada's Hudbay Minerals jumps 2.7% and Ero Copper adds 1.3%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY marginally softer having stalled ahead of the cycle high (162.84)

• FOMC minutes reinforce June’s hawkish tilt

• A few officials flagged case for a rate hike - latest geo tensions to emboldens hawks at the margin

• In the absence of MoF intervention, downside in USD/JPY expected to remain limited near-term

• In turn, absent of MoF action, USD/JPY dips are likely to remain shallow in the short-run

• Higher oil trajectory poses an additional headwind for JPY via terms-of-trade channel

• Current backdrop supports topside, opening door for retest of cycle high
USDJPY hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• AUD/USD meets headwind by 0.6946 after extending north from 0.6907

• 0.6907 was Wednesday low, as safe-haven USD rose on Iran war news

• Ascent to threaten 0.6946 aided by Nikkei's rebound (AUD is risk-sensitive)

• 0.6960 (Monday high) and 0.70 are resistance levels beyond 0.6946

• AUD/USD hit a three-month low last week, which the 200DMA helped define

• 200DMA is now at 0.6874. Fed's Williams is due to speak at 1300 GMT

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable helped to 1.3430 by more short-covering following break above 1.3410

• 1.3430 is the highest level since June 17. 1.3410 was Wednesday high

• CFTC data showed net GBP short near nine-year high in week to June 30

• Asian session base was 1.3389 (two pips shy of pullback low from 1.3410)

• GBP buoyed by positivity towards Burnham before July 20 UK PM change

• Fed policymakers' inflation concerns grew at June meeting, minutes show

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD's bounce off Wed's 1.1392 low stalls at Tue's 1.1449 high in early London trade Thursday

• Falling 21-dma now sits at 1.1452 — EUR/USD hasn't traded above it since mid June

• A break above 1.1452 would meet resistance at 1.1462-72, the July 2-3 highs

• Clearing that zone opens the door to 1.1525 — the 38.2% Fibo retrace of the 1.1849-1.1325 fall

• Decent demand emerged sub-1.1400 on Wed's dip to 1.1392; option expiries flank spot on both sides, helping contain it

• FX option implied volatility eases from Wed's highs - still very close to recent 2026 lows - signals low volatility risk
EUR/USD daily chart (EBS)


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Thursday July 9

• EUR/USD: 1.1370-75 (1.3BLN), 1.1395-1.1405 (2.5BLN), 1.1415 (350M), 1.1430-40 (1.3BLN)

• 1.1445-50 (1.4BLN), 1.1460-65 (1.8BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8000 (381M), 0.8050 (442M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8580-85 (698M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3300 (260M), 1.3320 (400M), 1.3400-05 (387M), 1.3440 (310M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6875-80 (942M), 0.6890 (209M), 0.6900-05 (880M), 0.7000-15 (1.3BLN)

• NZD/USD: 0.5650 (578M). USD/CAD: 1.4150 (200M), 1.4200 (795M)

• USD/JPY: 160.95-161.00 (1BLN), 162.00 (1.1BLN), 163.00 (2.1BLN)

• EUR/JPY: 180.00 (1BLN). AUD/JPY: 112.60 (200M)

• Wednesday's FX options wrap - Iran shock, muted response (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY remains on 162 on US-Iran hostilities, Asia 162.37-60 EBS

• Some early selling but has since subsided with Nikkei up some post-TSE open

• Foreign buying of Japan stocks and related currency hedging demand

• Unflagging Japan importer demand too, retail/NISA-related demand too?

• Market heavy above 162.50 hourly Ichimoku tenkan? Support @162.39 kijun?

• Massive option expiries at 162.00, 163.00 to help contain spot action

• Possibility too of Japan FX intervention on more USD strength

• EUR/JPY buoyant with USD/JPY, 185.59-65 EBS, above 184.73-99 daily cloud

• Hourly Ichimoku cloud between 184.77-185.09 providing downside cushion

• GBP/JPY 217.37-80 after rally to 217.82 yesterday, best since January '08

• CHF/JPY sideways near base of 201.03-202.06 daily Ichi cloud, 200.68-201.25

• On hold above 200.66-94 hourly cloud, 100/200-HMAs in cloud at 200.90/72

• AUD/JPY 112.48-75, firmly in 111.82-113.58 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Holding above 112.33-43 hourly Ichimoku cloud, 100-HMA at 112.32

• NZD/JPY 92.37-93.02, bid after RBNZ hike, hawkish stance yesterday

• To base of 93.03-73 daily Ichi cloud, support around 91.39 200-DMA confirmed

• Related comments , , also

• On flows , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


GBP/JPY hourly:


NZD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD holds gains in Asia after closing 0.2% higher on Wednesday

• U.S.-Iran tensions, higher oil prices taken in stride

• Domestic focus returns; likely PM Burnham's finance minister pick eyed

• BoE Governor Andrew Bailey delivers annual Mansion House speech on Tuesday

• Traders await clues on Fed policy; Warsh's semiannual testimony next week

• Fed minutes show greater concern about high inflation in June meeting

• Strong resistance at 1.3400-10 under threat, break opens 1.3460

• Support 1.3350-55, 1.3325-30; Wed range 1.3323-1.3410, Asia 1.3389-1.3402
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian mining stocks fall as much as 2% to their lowest point since April 2, adding to the broader benchmark's 0.7% loss

• Sub-index on track for fourth consecutive day of losses

• Copper prices slipped overnight after fresh hostilities in the Middle East threatened an interim ceasefire, reviving worries about weaker economic growth and metals demand [MET/L]

• BHP and Rio Tinto down as much as 2.1% and 4.8%, respectively

• Rio hits lowest level since March 30

• Including the day's moves, AXMM down 5.5% YTD, outperforming a marginal 0.1% gain on the AXJO

(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)

• Australian gold sub-index falls as much as 2.7%, on track to mark fourth straight session of losses

• Sub-index set for weakest intraday trading session since July 2

• Gold prices fell after inflation concerns intensified after U.S. President Donald Trump said an interim agreement aimed at ending Iran conflict was "over" [GOL/]

• Gold miners Northern Star Resources and Evolution Mining down 2% and 2.8% respectively

• Sub-index down 19.5% YTD, including the session's moves
(Reporting by Shivangi Lahiri in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY remains relatively bid on 162 on renewal of US attacks on Iran

• Range so far today 162.37-60 EBS, nervous stasis again

• Japan FX intervention still possible but threat getting old

• Hawkish Fed June minutes, higher US yields widen JGB-US Tsy rate diffs some

• Rise in Nikkei, Japanese equities could trigger renewed foreign hedge demand

• Demand too from Japanese importers, maybe retail on USD dips too

• Support especially firm @162.00, ascending hourly Ichi cloud 161.88-162.06

• Ascending 200 and 100-HMAs in area too at 162.01, 161.92, respectively

• On options front, massive $1.1 bln in expiries today at 162.00 strike

• Also $2.1 bln above at 163.00 strike, $1 bln 160.94-161.00 too

• Related comments , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Fed minutes , US-Iran , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD opens unchanged after trading in a 0.6907-0.6946 range on Wednesday

• Shrugs off risk aversion despite renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities

• U.S. military conducts fresh strikes on Iran; Trump says accord is 'over'

• Oil surges 6% as inflation fears reignite, metals drop, U.S. yields rally

• Fed minutes show concern about high inflation mounted in June meeting

• AUD bounce from 200-day MA last week keeps technical outlook positive

• Support 0.6900-10, 0.6874, 200-day MA, resistance 0.6860-65, 0.7000
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Credit Agricole CIB Research expects Gold to regain its bullish momentum following the recent sell-off.

"We believe that many negatives are already in the price of gold following its recent sell-off. Central banks still see XAU as a primary tool to reduce their exposure to the USD given the attempts by the US to weaponize the currency.

They could thus resume gold purchases especially if global energy shock continues to fade. Concerns about fiscal dominance over the Fed could return as well, weigh on US real rates and help XAU recover," CACIB adds.

• GBP$ firm in NY afternoon trade, +0.32% at 1.3401; Wednesday range 1.3410-1.3323

• Early NorAm dip on back of Trump comments on Iran MOU being over reversed

• Pair hits fresh 3-week high at 1.3410, offers noted by daily cloud base at 1.3409

• Fed minutes give no new clues on policy path, data dependent remains Fed's guidance

• Fed policymakers saw inflation concerns mounting at June meeting, minutes show

• GBP$ res 1.3410 Wed high, 1.3460 daily cloud top/June 15 high, 1.3516 upper 30d Bolli

• Supt 1.3338 30-DMA, 1.3323 Wednesday low, 1.3276 daily low July 2

Sterling Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1410 after 1.1432 traded overnight, the pair neared 1.1415 early

• EUR/USD then fell as comments from President Trump on Iran tensions soured risk

• Oil , USD, US yields rallied and USD/CNH rallied above 6.8101

• Gold, silver and equities fell sharply as investtrs sought safer assets

• EUR/USD pierced the 10-DMA, channel base on daily charts; hit a 4-session low of 1.1391

• Buyers then emerged as USD, oil, US yields slumped as risk sentiment improved

• Stocks, gold eroded some losses & USD/CNH gave back some earlier gains

• EUR/USD turned positive, rallied back above the 10-DMA, neared 1.1430

• The pair then sat near 1.1425 after the Fed minutes, it traded up +0.11%
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6925 after 0.6946-0.6907 traded overnight, the pair fell early

• Soured risk sentiment kept oil , USD and US yields

buoyant

• Gold, silver and equities, copper fell while USD/CNH rallied up to 6.8101

• Comments from President Trump on the tensions with Iran weighed on risk sentiment

• AUD/USD fell toward the overnight low but buyers emerged and the pair turned up

• US dollar, yields & oil gave back some gains & stocks, gold, silver moved upward

• USD/CNH eroded some gains which helped AUD/USD rally toward 0.6940

• AUD/USD sat near 0.6930 after the Fed minutes, it traded up +0.05%
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan reviews the July RBNZ meeting.

"The RBNZ hiked rates to 2.5% O/N and delivered a data dependent slightly hawkish lean, as expected. The NZ has outperformed post the decision, in part due to the fact that the move wasn't fully priced, but with NZ rates still below their peers, this is no 'smoking gun' for an aggressive rally in NZD," JPM notes.

"While the board expects some further unwinding of stimulatory stimulus, the outlook remains uncertain and before we get too carried away, next week's QSBO and 2Q inflation on the 20th will be important. While cannot rule out further gains for a currency that has been unloved for months, buying dips in AUDNZD towards the 100DMA~ 1.2101 is the game plan," JPM adds.

Goldman Sachs reviews the RBNZ July policy meeting.

"The RBNZ raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bp to 2.50% at the July meeting. The outcome was in line with our forecast, the majority of market economist forecasts (17 out of 23 expected a 25bp hike) and market pricing (+17bp). The decision was reached by consensus across the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).  

Looking ahead, we lean towards another 25bp rate hike in September to 2.75%, given the MPC still judges policy to be accommodative and that the MPC on aggregate assesses inflation risks as skewed slightly to the upside. Over the medium term, however, we continue to expect the RBNZ to remain on hold at 2.75% as existing spare capacity in the New Zealand economy limits the indirect effects of the oil price shock and inflation undershoots the RBNZ's forecasts," GS notes.

"We remain constructive on NZD following the RBNZ decision, where markets appear to underappreciate the significance of the unanimous vote and the potential for further tightening," GS adds.

EUR/USD fell to a four-session low on Wednesday, weighed down by a combination of escalating geopolitical tensions and bearish technical signals that have left long-positioned investors increasingly exposed to downside risk. The primary catalyst was an overnight escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions, which triggered a classic flight to safety. Oil prices , the U.S. dollar, and Treasury yields all rallied as a result, while riskier assets including equities , gold , and silver sold off sharply — all of which compounded downward pressure on the pair.

From a technical standpoint, the picture has deteriorated since the July 2 daily high. EUR/USD has slipped below its rising 10-day moving average and pierced the base of its rising channel on the daily chart, signaling that the rally off the June 24 low may have only been a corrective bounce within a broader downtrend. Wednesday's daily inverted hammer candle, along with falling RSI readings on both the daily and monthly timeframes, reinforces the view that downward momentum is building.

Should the pair close below the channel base, the channel pattern would be considered complete, opening the door to a test of the 1.1050–1.1100 area — a target derived from the measured move of the June 15 to June 24 decline. Any further escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions would meaningfully amplify these downside risks.
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs preview today's FOMC minutes from the June policy meeting.

BofA: In the June FOMC minutes, markets will focus on the discussion around rate hikes. With nine policymakers penciling in hikes this year, the minutes might give us clues as to whether the Fed is looking to move as early as July. Any discussion of Chair Warsh's task forces will also be of interest. Fed watchers should be prepared for the possibility that Warsh will have the minutes restructured and/or condensed, as was the case with the statement.

Morgan Stanley: We are hoping for clues to the Fed's changing reaction function, in particular around inflation. In his speech at Sintra, Chairman Warsh put the focus on the decline in inflation risks: in these minutes, we are Looking for assessments of oil pass through, shorter-run inflation expectations, and explanation of the high 2026 inflation in the SEP. Also, how much have labor market assessments changed. In his press conference after the June FOMC, Warsh recognized a "stable" labor market with some positive momentum; this contrasted with the April FOMC minutes which noted "stabilization in the labor market" but concerns about "recent low.

JP Morgan: Today's scheduled release of the minutes to the June 16-17 FOMC meeting will be the first minutes in the Warsh era of diminished communications. The revamp of the last post-meeting statement raises the specter of a similar revamp to the minutes. This is a risk, but we see a few factors that could limit how much change we can expect to see...We don't expect material format changes today, but the risks clearly tilt toward less transparency in Fed communications.

Goldman: The FOMC left the funds rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75% and removed the previous forward guidance suggesting cuts from its statement at the June FOMC meeting. But the meeting delivered a hawkish surprise, with nine participants projecting a hike in 2026 (vs. our expectation of three). We suspect that FOMC participants treated the news about a deal with Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz- which emerged only a few days before the meeting-cautiously. Chairman Warsh also noted earlier this week that "inflation expectations have come down, and inflation risks have come down" at a panel discussion in Sintra, Portugal. We will look for details in the minutes on the assumptions underlying participants' economic outlook and views of the balance of risks at the time.