• USD net spec G10 long -$4.48bn in Apr 29-May 5 IMM period, +$9.4bn; $IDX -0.07%

• Mideast conflict, oil/inflation function remains primary focus for FX/FI markets

• US-Iran ceasefire taking shots but holding for now, stirs USD haven unwind; risk rallies

• EUR$ -0.19% in period, specs -3.5k contracts now +32.2k; ECB 2026 hikes likely sap growth

• $JPY -1.05%, specs +40.3k contracts now +61.7k; 2nd round of intervention lifts JPY

• GBP$ +0.18%, specs -3.3k contract now -64k; GBP specs add to GBP short, res 1.3650 area

• $CAD -0.42%, specs +23.8k contracts now +14.7k; shorts unwind on high oil, hawkish BoC

• AUD$ +0.02%, specs +6.8k contracts now +78.7k; risk rally lifts commods, RBA hawkish

• Headline risk remains prevalent amid tenuous Mideast ceasefire, oil down but near $100/bbl

Majors w/IMM Performance Charts:


IMM Position Table:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7235 after 0.7200 traded overnight, rally extended in NY

• USD, US yields softened after the US April employment report

• USD/CNH hit a fresh session low while gold, silver and stocks rallied sharply

• AUD/USD traded 0.7249 before dipping slightly, it sat near 0.7245 late in the day

• Techs lean bullish; RSIs are rising, pair trades above the rising 10- & 21-DMAs

• Consolidation on daily chart & widening 20-month Bolli bands add to bull signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Nomura Research discusses the scope of the last round of Japan's MoF JPY intervention.

"The MOF appears to have conducted around USD30bn of foreign exchange intervention between 1 and 6 May. USD/JPY remained flat around the 156 mark, as caution over potential Japanese currency intervention has kept its gains capped. Ongoing geopolitical developments, such as US-Iran communications, have also kept the market in wait-and-see mode," Nomura notes.

"Recent data indicate the Japanese Ministry of Finance conducted around USD62bn of FX intervention between 30 April and 6 May, with ample reserves remaining for further action if needed.  Forthcoming high-level meetings between US and Japanese officials, along with statements from top currency official Mimura rejecting limits on intervention frequency are supporting JPY," Nomura adds.

(Fixes typo in headline) The AUD/USD pair is likely to experience a temporary pause in its bullish trend before resuming its broader upward trajectory.

While the pair held above 0.7200 on Friday, suggesting a continuation of its bull trend, momentum indicators reveal a potential need for a breather. The daily and monthly Relative Strength Indices (RSIs) are rising but approaching overbought levels, indicating that a pullback may be necessary to unwind this condition.

Further supporting the notion of a pause is the formation of May's monthly doji candle, coupled with daily charts that illustrate a consolidative phase since the pair reached a nearly four-year high earlier this week.

Despite this potential slowdown, technical signals still point to a strong underlying trend. The widening 20-month Bollinger Bands, along with rising middle and upper lines, reinforce the bullish sentiment.

Moreover, AUD/USD's ability to remain above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the February 2021 high to the April 2025 low bolsters the confidence of long-positioned investors. Once the anticipated pause concludes, several targets would emerge, including the psychological 0.7500 level, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7512, and the yearly high of 0.7661 established in 2022.
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research likes selling GBP/AUD on rallies in the near-term.

"GBP crosses are more compelling, from a tactical perspective. In particular, GBP/AUD at 1.87 is attracting attention. The pair has remained in a well-defined downtrend over the past year. The rebound seen in March increasingly appears corrective rather than the start of a sustained reversal, especially as the pair continues to trade below its 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages. Upside moves are losing momentum near resistance levels, keeping the broader bearish structure intact," ANZ notes.

"Technically, the bearish trend remains, unless GBP/AUD is able to sustain a break above the 1.90–1.91 resistance. Until then, we view short-term recoveries as opportunities to re-enter short positions, with scope for a retest towards the 1.85 region, which was last seen in June 2023 over the medium term and is our Q2 end forecast for the pair," ANZ adds.

• Ether rallied to 2299.44 earlier in the session, neared the 10-DMA, sellers emerged

• Ether turned lower and broke below Thursday's daily low, hit 2266.98

• The pair was down -0.55% in NY's morning despite upbeat risk sentiment

• Drops in USD, US yields , USD/CNH & oil couldn't inspire Ether bulls

• Buying of USD alternatives like gold, silver & rally in stocks also didn't inspire bulls

• Technical signals are growing more bearish for Ether

• It holds below the 10-DMA, daily RSI is falling & monthly RSI is about to turn downward

• A monthly gravestone doji is in place for May which reinforces the bearish signals

• Consolidation of drop from January's high persists, adds to bearish sentiment

• Feb. monthly low is key; if breaks 2025 low, psychological 1200.00 are in focus
eth


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses USDJPY technical outlook.

"FX intervention by the Bank of Japan to strengthen the yen pushed USDJPY lower. Spot is testing uptrend support at 156.37-156.02 (trendline and Ichimoku cloud).Brief intraday breaks below support have been bought, with price continuing to close above 156. As long as this holds, uptrend support remains intact, with scope for a tactical rebound toward the top of the cloud at 158.60-158.85," BofA notes.

"However, MACD has crossed down and Ichimoku may, too. An intact price uptrend with bearish trend signal(s) suggest choppy, tactical trading until realignment. A daily close below 156 would validate bearish signals, opening downside toward the 200‑day SMA (~154.27) and potentially the Fibonacci retracement near 152.76," BofA adds.

CIBC Research discusses its reaction to today's Canada labor market report.

"The Canadian labour market continued its weak start to 2026 in April, with a third decline in employment within the first four months of the year seeing the unemployment rate rise further. The -18K decline in jobs came against consensus expectations for a 10K increase and, combined with a slight uptick in participation, resulted in a rise in the unemployment rate to 6.9%. The unemployment rate increased most for young people aged 15-24, but also continued to drift higher for core aged (25-54) workers," CIBC notes.

"For the Bank of Canada, evidence that slack within the labour market is, if anything, increasing rather than reducing, should limit the ability for the oil price shock to spread into wider inflationary pressure. We continue to see the BoC holding interest rates at their current level throughout 2026," CIBC adds.

• EUR/USD 0.38%, USD/JPY -0.18%, GBP/USD 0.49%, AUD/USD 0.35%

• S&P E-minis 0.41%, DAX -0.66%, Nikkei 225 -0.19%, FTSE -0.16%

• EUR/USD traders are poorly positioned for the rise in oil prices

• USD/JPY downside is limited despite repeated interventions

• GBP/USD vaults 1.36; UK PM Starmer vows to fight on

• AUD/USD rises to intra-day high on U.S. dollar supply

• Option expiries . U.S. Open
(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

May 8 (Reuters) - British train timetables detailing departures and arrivals are updated every mid-to-late May. The question sterling option traders would like answered is whether mid-to-late May might also see British Prime Minister Keir Starmer set out a timetable for his departure from Downing Street. Starmer's Labour Party suffered heavy losses in Thursday's local elections that deepened doubts over his ability to govern, although Starmer said "I am not going to walk away".

Before the election results started to arrive, the Times newspaper said UK energy minister Ed Miliband had advised Starmer to consider setting out a timetable for his exit. Miliband is a perceived 'kingmaker' should a vacancy arise in Downing Street, and a mooted finance minister-in-waiting.

One reason why a timetable would be handy is that Andy Burnham and Angela Rayner - the two frontrunners to succeed Starmer should he go - both have hurdles to clear before they can mount leadership bids. In Burnham's case, that means winning a seat in a by-election - which is by no means a given due to Labour's poor poll ratings.

Related:
GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD hits 0.7236 intra-day high after rising from 0.7200 on USD supply

• 0.7200 was Asia low, after safe-haven USD rose on flare-up in Persian Gulf

• Thursday's high was 0.7264 - before renewed US-Iran hostilities

• Resistance levels beyond 0.7264 include 0.7277 and 0.73

• 0.7277 was Wednesday's four-year peak (0.7282 was June 2022 high)

• U.S. jobs data due at 1230 GMT; April NFP forecast at 62k. Jobless rate f/c 4.3%

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD remains resilient despite latest Mid-East tensions, as traders focus on upcoming key drivers.

• Hedging activity linked to huge EUR 2.2 billion 1.1750 option strike helps contain ahead of its 10am New York expiry

• Market participants are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of US jobs data due at 12:30 GMT, helping to contain FX ahead

• Tame overnight volatility risk premiums suggest dealers are not bracing for a significant surprise in US jobs data

• Broader EUR/USD implied volatility continues to languish near pre Mid-East conflict lows - reflects calmer climes

• Risk reversals pare downside strike premiums and are now close to a neutral directional bias
EUR/USD FXO implied volatility


EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable holds below 1.36 after dropping through the level on Thursday

• Drop through 1.36 spurred by Iran-US clashes (dollar is safe-haven)

• 1.3633 was Thursday's high - before the flare-up in the Middle East

• There is a big 1.3600 option expiry for the 10am ET NY cut (1400 GMT)

• UK's Labour Party punished in local elections, raising pressure on PM Starmer

• US jobs data due at 1230 GMT; April NFP forecast at 62k. Jobless rate f/c 4.3%

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/14.00 GMT on Friday May 8

• EUR/USD: 1.1650 (1.2BLN), 1.1665/1.1670 (1.2BLN), 1.1680/1.1690 (2.0BLN)

• 1.1700 (1.5BLN), 1.1730 (232M), 1.1750 (2.2BLN), 1.1800 (1.6BLN), 1.1825/1.1830 (707M)

• USD/CHF: 0.7875 (241M), 0.7890 (450M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8650-65 (250M), 0.8750 (234M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3600 (1.2BLN), 1.3685-1.3700 (422M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7175 (386M), 0.7200 (828M), 0.7250 (229M), 0.7300-05 (631M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5935-40 (588M), 0.6000 (230M). AUD/NZD: 1.2125 (396M), 1.2250 (206M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3600 (841M), 1.3620/1.3625 (408M), 1.3665 (467M), 1.3700 (535M)

• USD/JPY: 155.00 (636M), 156.85 (200M), 157.00 (699M), 158.00 (607M), 158.50 (295M)

• FX options wrap - Hormuz hope, wobbly USD, elections and NFP (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Tanami Gold fall as much as 17.4% to A$0.076, biggest intraday pct drop since April 27, 2015

• Stock touches lowest point since December 23, 2025

• Gold explorer says it will raise up to A$70.5 million ($50.90 million) through entitlement offer

• Offer price of A$0.06/share marks a 34.8% discount to firm's last close on 27 April, before it went on a trading halt for the announcement

• Says funds raised to be used to meet project obligations, among others

• Stock down 16.1% so far this week, set for its worst week since mid-March

• Stock down 4.9%, YTD

($1 = $1.0000)

($1 = 1.3850 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• GBP/USD steady in Asia after closing -0.3% Thu as Iran peace hopes dissipate

• US and Iran exchange fire, but Trump says ceasefire still in effect

• WTI crude +0.7% Fri; had closed -0.3% after falling 5.5% in previous session

• Asia stock markets a sea of red as risk aversion grips pre weekend

• Early results for British local and regional elections start trickling in

• Results show Labour has lost in key areas following a surge for Reform UK

• GBP takes results in stride as poor Labour performance was expected

• BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speech, U.S. April jobs data awaited Friday

• Resistance 1.3600-05, 1.3630-40, support 1.3535-40, 1.3510-15

• Thursday range 1.3549-1.3633, Asia 1.35475-1.3560
Q1 GDP will show how the Iran war started impacting growth:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD flat wtd amid flailing efforts to deliver peace to the Middle East

• Trump says strikes on Iran retaliatory; Iran says U.S. violated ceasefire

• ECB's Schnabel sees potential for Jun rate hike if energy shock lingers

• EU Mar retail sales -0.1% m/m (poll -0.3%), +1.2% y/y (poll +1.0%)

• EUR sits clear of 1.1650 inflection zone, but needs fresh impetus to rally

• U.S. Apr non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +62k

• Range Asia 1.172225-3375, support 1.1650 1.1409, resistance 1.1850 1.1930
EUR Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD hovers near bottom of overnight range amid Iran ceasefire questions

• Brent crude +2.4% in Asia after U.S. and Iran exchange missiles

• Iran accuses U.S. of violating ceasefire, Trump says strikes retaliatory

• AUD losing touch with major 0.7283 inflection point for now, drifting lower

• Weighty U.S. Apr non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +62k

• AU Q1 wage price index due Wed, gives guidance on sticky services inflation

• Range Asia 0.7200-13, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7283 0.7661
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY cautious bid in Asia after closing 0.4% higher on Thursday

• Boosted by higher oil prices as Iran ceasefire optimism dissipates

• WTI crude up 2% in Asia, has gained nearly 10% from Thursday low

• US and Iran exchange fire, but Trump says ceasefire still in effect

• Japan may have spent $32 billion in additional yen-buying intervention

• Had spent $35 bln last week; 2.35% yen gain for $67 bln disappointing

• But appears to have halted the upside momentum of the USD for now

• Japan real wages climb for third month in Mar, backs case for BOJ rate hike

• Resistance 157.00, 157.20-25 , 157.70-80, support 156.50, 156.00-10

• Thursday range 156.02-156.97, Asia range 156.80-156.95
JPY:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD -0.8% from Thur 0.5983 high as U.S.-Iran ceasefire frays at seams

• NZD buyers likely to emerge ahead former 0.5930 major resistance zone

• Iran accuses U.S. of violating ceasefire, says ships and civilian areas hit

• Trump confirms strikes, says they were retaliatory & ceasefire is ongoing

• U.S. trade court rules against Trump's newest 10% global tariffs

• Pivotal U.S. Apr non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +62k

• Range NZ 0.59321-56, support 0.5680 0.5580, resistance 0.6090-95 0.6120
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.8% from Thur 0.7264 high Iran peace negotiations go off script

• Iran says U.S. has violated ceasefire targeting ships and civilian areas

• U.S. trade court rules against Trump's latest 10% global tariffs

• AUD backs off major 0.7283 resistance, needs momentum renewal to challenge

• Pair pushing lower hourly Bollinger band, looking oversold short term

• Important U.S. Apr non-farm payrolls due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +62k

• Overnight range 0.7202-64, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7283 0.7661
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Morgan Stanley Research previews the April US jobs report on Friday.

"Falling jobless claims signal even slower layoffs and a slightly faster reemployment rate at the start of April. We forecast payrolls rose 70k, with private payrolls rising 80k, about in line with the 1Q average pace," MS notes.

"That employment growth is close to our estimate of the payroll pace consistent with a flat unemployment rate, and the unemployment rate moves sideways, 4.3% but on the cusp of a 4.2%. We project average hourly earnings rise on trend 0.3% m/m. The y/y pace spikes, likely temporarily to 3.8% from 3.5% in March although it's still below the 3.9%y/y at the end of 2025," MS adds.

• GBP$ soft in NY afternoon, -0.14% at 1.3472; Thursday range 1.3633-1.3570

• Early risk bid fades amid less-optimistic Mideast peace comments

• Saudi Arabia, Kuwait have lifted restrictions on U.S. military use of their bases, airspace

• Oil reversed early gains, Brent had been as low as $96.03, trades $101.50 in NY afternoon

• Friday's US payroll data in focus for clues at employment/inflation/growth function

• GBP$ supt 1.3570 Thursday low, 1.3549 rising 10-DMA, 1.3514 daily cloud top

• Res 1.3643 Wednesday high, 1.3658 daily high May 1, 1.3713 upper 30-d Bolli

• Seems GBP$ bulls need more than whiff of peace to test the May 1 high at 1.3658 & above

Sterling Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1770 after EUR/UD rallied to 1.1778 in overnight trading

• The pair neared the overnight high in early action as risk sentiment was upbeat

• Risk shifted downward however; USD, US yields , oil firmed up

• USD/CNH rallied off its 6.7959 low while stocks turned down & gold eroded some gains

• EUR/USD fell to 1.1736 then bounced, it neared 1.1750 late, was near flat on the session

• A daily inverted hammer formed but EUR/USD remains above the 10- & 21-DMAs

• The May monthly doji candle could be a concern for EUR/USD bulls

• US April payroll report due Friday could impact risk sentiment
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)