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March 11 (Reuters) - Cable subdued with narrow ranges reflecting a market that does not want to be offside ahead of the next geopolitical headline. Conviction is lacking as getting whipsawed is clearly the risk here. That said, GBP has held up well, largely on cross-driven moves with EUR/GBP grinding to five-week lows as longs are trimmed. The Iran conflict remains the wild card for sterling. With inflation already printing above target, an oil shock layered on top can quickly change the conversation from when the Bank of England cuts to if it cuts. Note that OBR’s David Miles said UK inflation could end the year at 3%, compared to 2% if energy prices remain at current levels.

Clearly the bond market is responding, with 10-year gilt yields back towards 4.70% and the curve pricing little in the way of easing. That suggests that the MPC could sit on its hands longer than many expect.

Next week, the BoE meets, which pre-conflict looked like it was teeing up a March cut, and now it is likely to be a wait-and-see. Most economists have already pushed back the base case to April, but if the conflict drags, we could see another kicking of the can to the second half of the year. With this in mind, the geopolitical news flow should continue to run the show.
BoE pricing


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own); Editing by Lisa Shumaker ((Email: ))

Danske Research adds a short EUR/USD position to its portfolio targeting a move towards 1.12.

"We think the Middle East energy shock shifts the EUR/USD outcome space also beyond the first-order terms-of-trade effect. We now recommend a tactical short EUR/USD spot position with a horizon of 1-3M with a target of 1.1200," Danske notes.

"We acknowledge that the interest rate differential between EUR and USD has narrowed notably in favour of the former, but we do not expect this to last. In our view, the ECB is very unlikely to hike against a pure supply shock especially, when longer-term inflation expectations remain little changed," Danske adds.

(Updates)

• Shares of silver miners fall, tracking prices of the white metal [GOL/]

• Spot silver down 3.1% at $85.67/ounce

• Prices weighed down by an uptick in the U.S. dollar and looming inflation concerns that boosted the likelihood of higher interest rates

• Shares of miners Hecla and Coeur down 5.6% and ~7%, respectively

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver and Silvercorp Metals shed 6.2% and ~7%, respectively

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust down ~4% each
(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

Bank of America Global Research flags short AUD/CAD, and short EUR/CAD as attractive quant-based signals this week.

"With no resolution in sight, this remains our strongest signal; our event signals suggests further EUR downside while CAD skew is moving for calls, and our trend analysis shows that the downtrend in EURCAD is supported by UD and RS," BofA notes.

"We believe that bearish AUDCAD would also be attractive. Considering how crowded long AUD was before the crisis, and how little it has sold off until now, bearish AUD may well be where the best short-term value is to be found," BofA adds.

CIBC Research reviews today's US February CPI report.

"Headline price pressures gained some momentum in the US in February ahead of the war-induced surge in energy prices, while core monthly prices eased off slightly. The headline index showed a 0.3% m/m increase, a tick faster than the prior month, while the ex. food/energy index slowed to 0.2%. That was in line with the consensus expectation, and left the annual pace unchanged for both, at 2.4% and 2.5%, respectively. A pickup in both food and energy prices were reflected in the headline advance, while within the core group, categories sent mixed signals. Another drop in used car prices offset increases in other categories that included some tariff-exposed ones like apparel," CIBC notes.

"More importantly, the surge in energy prices will show up in next month's report, with the risk being that Fed cuts could get delayed, which we currently have penciled in for June and July," CIBC adds.

• U.S.-listed shares of silver miners fall premarket, tracking prices of the white metal [GOL/]

• Spot silver down 1.4% at $87.15/ounce

• Prices fall as higher oil prices reignite inflation worries and temper hopes of rate cut

• Shares of miners Hecla and Coeur down 1% and 1.5%, respectively

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver and Silvercorp Metals dip 1.2% and ~2%, respectively

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust both down ~2%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

• Dollar holds gains, yen on the cusp of the 159 level

• There is a good chance of a retest of Monday's 158.90 high, above which would accelerate

• USD/JPY has risen from 157.87 to 158.49, on Wednesday, EBS data shows

• USD/JPY's long upper shadow on Monday's candlestick line pointed to an upside rejection

• However, on Tuesday, spot found solid support just ahead of the tenkan line that is currently at 157.20

• The tenkan line, is the middle point of the last nine trading sessions

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

• Reuters Poll: BOJ to raise interest rates next quarter despite Middle East war

Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Hochschild Mining down 6.1% at 657p; among top losers on FTSE mid-caps index , which is down 0.8%

• Co's FY attributable gold equivalent production fell 10% from a year ago, largely attributable to challenges at Mara Rosa ops

• HOCM posts FY attributable all-in sustaining costs from ops of $2,138 per gold equivalent ounce vs $1,558 a year ago, forecast between $2,157 and $2,320 in 2026

• Recommends final dividend of 5 U.S. cents per share, lower than Peel Hunt estimate of 7.7 U.S. cents per share

• YTD, stock up about 27% vs .FTMC's 0.7% fall
(Reporting by Megha Anilkumar Nair)

Traders have trimmed some of their bullish euro bets, but positioning remains heavy at around 17 billion euros, which is likely to act as a drag on EUR/USD whether the pair rises or falls. Before the Iran conflict, bullish bets had climbed above 23 billion euros, marking the second-largest long euro position on record. As with other extreme positioning episodes, that build-up helped mark a significant top in EUR/USD at 1.2084.

The pair had already fallen to 1.1742 before hostilities broke out between Israel, the United States and Iran, and then slid further to 1.1507 in the aftermath.

There was already an appetite to take profit regardless of the war, but with positioning still elevated and war ongoing, speculators have fresh reason to cut exposure — a typical response in risk-averse conditions. Technical signals, which heavily influence speculative accounts, have also turned less supportive. EUR/USD has posted sustained losses below its 200-day moving average (DMA) at 1.1676, while a recent bearish crossover saw the 20-DMA at 1.1740 fall below the 55-DMA at 1.1757.

This week's rebound from 1.1507 to 1.1667, following an oversold condition, has been unconvincing. The move only marginally exceeded the 1.1643 target for a shallow 23.6% retracement of the 1.2084–1.1507 decline, and the pair's failure to reclaim the 200-DMA reinforces the bearish outlook.
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 43 pip range thus far Wednesday; 1.34125-1.34555

• The base of that range is 0.9 pips above Tuesday low. 1.3481 was Tuesday high

• Ascent to 1.3481 was influenced by lower oil prices. Iran war enters 12th day

• IEA proposes largest ever oil release from strategic reserves, WSJ says

• U.S. CPI data due at 1230 GMT; 0.3% MM, 2.4% f/c. Core f/c 0.2% MM, 2.5% YY

• UK inflation could end 2026 at around 3% if energy prices hold, OBR's Miles says

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD was falling before Iran conflict and deepened drop after

• Pair fell 1.2084 to 1.1742 before war then dropped to 1.1507

• Weak recovery to 1.1667 has followed - 23.6% 1.2084-1.1507 is 1.1643

• Deeper drop may follow failure to recover 200-DMA at 1.1677

• Oversold situation that developed ahead bounce now alleviated

• The 20-DMA has dropped below the 55-DMA - bearish signal

• More speculators still long 17 billion euros may book profits

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Laopu Gold climb 4.8% to HK$669.5, on course for the biggest one-day pct gain since February 16

• Stock touches the highest point since March 5, rising for the second session

• China-based gold jewellery maker and distributor expects 2025 net profit to jump 226%-233% y/y to 4.8-4.9 bln yuan ($699.30-$713.87 mln) with sales up 216%-227% y/y due to expansion of brand influence and product optimization

• YTD, stock up 4.1%, benchmark Hang Seng Index up 1%

($1 = 6.8640 Chinese yuan renminbi)

(Reporting by Donny Kwok)

• JPY again under pressure across the board, among crosses AUD/JPY shines

• USD/JPY 157.92 to 158.39 EBS, continuing move up from 157.26 yesterday

• Daily chart showing good bounce from now flat 157.20 daily Ichi tenkan

• For now above descending hourly Ichimoku cloud between 158.09-13

• Well above ascending 200-HMA at 157.42, above 100-HMA currently at 157.87

• Continuing Middle East conflict, affect on Japan energy needs concerning

• Higher inflation and possible stagflation on-going concerns

• This despite lower Feb corporate goods prices ,

• EUR/JPY 183.59-184.02 EBS, back in 183.33-184.33 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Underlining support eyed at ascending 100-DMA at 182.01

• CHF/JPY 202.76-203.63 and back at recent highs, 203.99 record high Mar 2

• AUD/JPY maybe best bid among yen crosses, 112.44 to 113.57 today

• Higher and towards 114.25 high dating back to November 1990

• Market expectations for successive RBA rate hikes very supportive

• Related , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Alchemy Resources rise 10% to A$0.011, their largest intraday pct gain since February 24

• Stock hits its highest level since March 3

• Mineral explorer to divest its Karonie and Lake Rebecca gold projects in Western Australia to Forrestania Resources

• Consideration for sale is A$5 million ($3.59 million)

• Alchemy says divestment strengthens financial position and enables co to redirect capital and management focus to projects that offer substantial growth potential

• Forrestania shares down 4.8% at A$0.6

• More than 2 million Alchemy shares change hands vs the 30-day average of around 1.4 million shares

• Alchemy stock up 10% YTD, including the day's moves

($1 = 1.3947 Australian dollars)
(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD +0.2% Wed as softer oil prices improve broad risk sentiment

• International Energy Agency proposes record strategic reserve oil release

• Trump claiming Iran war de-escalation imminent, but contradictions continue

• RBA Deputy Governor Hauser's hawkish comments Tue provides AUD tailwind

• U.S. Feb core CPI due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.2% m/m, +2.5% y/y

• Range Asia 0.71135-365, support 0.6944 0.6900, resistance 0.7248
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Auravelle Metals rise as much as 14.3% to A$0.016, set for their best intraday trading session since February 4

• Stock snaps two straight sessions of losses

• Diversified miner reports high gold grades found at its Nuckulla Hill Gold Project in South Australia

• Says further drilling in the prospect area is scheduled for the coming weeks

• YTD, stock up 13.3%, including the day's moves
(Reporting by Shivangi Lahiri in Bengaluru)

• Australia's gold stocks rise as much as 2.2%, on track to log second straight session of gains, if trend holds

• Gold rose nearly 2% globally on Tuesday, softer dollar and easing inflation concerns lift gains [GOL/]

• Gold miner Northern Star Resources rises as much as 2.2%, among the top movers; Genesis Minerals adds 1.3%

• Sub-index up 3.2% YTD, including session moves
(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• AUD/NZD continues to extend 11-month rally, +12.7% from Apr 1.0652 low

• Cross +0.7% Tue after RBA's Hauser re-enforced hawkish sentiment

• Markets now pricing in 25 bps hike at Mar 17 RBA monetary policy meeting

• AUD/USD hits 45-month high, rally further fanned by improved risk sentiment

• NZD/USD recovery less convincing as energy price uncertainty weighs heavily

• Trump claiming Iran war de-escalation imminent but oil supply remains choked

• AUD/NZD range Tue 1.1911-1.2019, support 1.1815 1.1525, resistance 1.2101
AUD/NZD Monthly


AUD/NZD Daily Fibo Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Goldman Sachs Research previews the US February CPI report on Wednesday. 

"We expect a 0.17% increase in February core CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.42% (vs. +2.5% consensus)," GS notes.

"We expect a 0.18% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), reflecting higher food (+0.1%) and energy (+0.5%) prices. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.24% increase in core PCE in February," GS adds.

• AUD/USD +2.4% from Mon 0.69565 low, Trump's comments improve risk appetite

• Claims that Iran war de-escalation is imminent seem to lack substance

• Oil off highs, but tension simmers as Middle East supply remains choked

• AUD set to extend 11-month rally with hawkish RBA lurking in background

• U.S. Feb core CPI due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.2% m/m, +2.5% y/y

• Overnight Range 0.7075-0.7168, support 0.6944 0.6900, resistance 0.7248
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar weakened as oil plunged on Tuesday after reports that tankers were passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while equities were further supported by hopes for a swift resolution to the Iran conflict. Following comments from U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday suggesting the Iran war could end soon, he said that it's possible he would be willing to talk with Iran but that it depends on the terms. A White House spokesperson later said operations in Iran will end when Trump decides objectives have been met and Iran has unconditionally surrendered. G7 energy ministers, while confirming readiness, stopped short of approving a strategic oil-reserve release on Tuesday, instead asking the IEA to review conditions before any action. Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said that Israel was not seeking an endless war with Iran and would coordinate with the United States on when to end the conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin has discussed the conflict in the Middle East with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, the Kremlin said. In data, U.S. home sales beat expectations as attention turns to Wednesday’s key CPI release. Currency volatilities across tenors -- including elevated butterflies -- fell while bullish USD risk reversals eased as surface flattens.

EUR/USD held within a 1.1607–1.1667 range after buyers emerged near 1.1620, ending the session with a doji that highlights lingering bullish concerns as the monthly RSI trends lower and the pair continues to trade below the 200-DMA.

USD/JPY formed a doji near 157.50 as risk sentiment improved, with dollar weakness offset by gains in yen crosses. AUD/JPY hit a new multi-year high on metals and pre-RBA positioning.

AUD/USD rose to a 3-3/4-year peak at 0.7168 before easing toward 0.7130 late in the session, though techs remain bullish with a monthly bull hammer underpinning.

GBP/USD rose after breaking above the 200-DMA, supported by weaker oil prices, easing UK fiscal concerns, softer gilt yields, and optimism that the Iran conflict may end soon.

Treasury yields were down as much as 2 basis points as the curve steepened. The 2s-10s curve was up about 1 basis point to +55.9bp.

The S&P 500 rose 0.15%.

Gold rose 1.1% while copper gained 1.5%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.10%, USD/JPY +0.16%, GBP/USD -0.07%, AUD/USD +0.85%, DXY -0.38%, EUR/JPY +0.07%, GBP/JPY +0.11%, AUD/JPY +1.03%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

• GBP$ near session high in NY afternoon. +0.2% at 1.3465; Tues range 1.3481-1.3414

• Oil below Mon's high by $120, -14% by $80; talk sanctions being lifted aids slide

• GBP$ breaks above 200-DMA (1.3444), moves into daily cloud (1.3453-1.3614)

• President Trump notes US-Israel, allies successes vs Iran, war may end shortly

• UK fiscal concerns ebb; UK 10y gilt off high yield near 4.8% aid GBP rise from 1.33

• Ex-Mideast, LSEG's IRPR indicates BoE cut expectations below Fed in 2026

• Wednesday's US CPI in focus, CPI y/y f/c steady at 2.4%, core seen steady at 2.5%

• GBP$ res 1.3481 Tues high, 1.3494 falling 10-DMA, 1.3561 50% Fib of 1.3867-1.3255

• Supt 1.3444 flat 200-DMA- fmr res, 1.3414 daily low Mar 10, 1.3373 rising 100-HMA

• Despite oil slide, Mideast optimism, missiles continue to fly posing risks to mkts

Sterling Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Nomura Research likes short AUD/NZD ahead of the RBA March-17 meeting.

"Locally, the RBA governor provided temporary support for AUD in noting that the bank would respond to any rise in inflation expectations, and that all policy meetings, including the 17 March meeting were "live". However, our base case remains for only one more hike, in May, and we think the market is likely pricing too much hiking this year, though we concede that the March meeting is indeed live, with market pricing of around 7bp for this meeting roughly fair in our view," Nomura notes.

"We are more positive on NZD than AUD, as: 1) we expect New Zealand growth momentum to outperform, given still-easy monetary policy; 2) dairy prices have bounced this year; and 3) positioning favours NZD over AUD, in our view. We therefore add a short AUD/NZD trade to our "watchlist" with a conviction of 2/5, and look for external volatility to stabilise in order to give us a firmer conviction on this relative value play," Nomura adds.

• AUD/NZD tags 1.20 as momentum builds ahead of next week's RBA decision (Mar 17)

• RBA Dep Gov strikes hawkish tone - rate hike odds now 66%, from 30%

• Gov Bullock's already set the stage flagging oil pass-through risk

• Consequently, AUD risks lean higher into meeting

• Meanwhile, AUD's resilience against geo noise gives bulls additional conviction

• Crowded positions have been a known risk, but market has rewarded those who held

• AUD/NZD is still preferred expression for AUD topside. Cleaner than AUD/USD
audnzd vs spreads


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))