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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
Jul 19 - 06:12 AM
USD/JPY - Good Bids In Low 107S Spoil Bear Run
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 19 - 04:50 AM
  • Potential double base at 107.21 as market finds its feet: good bids touted
  • Sharp two-day slide from 108.33 meets bids and early Frid rebound to 107.70
  • BeaR trend from 108.99 July 10 alive but abv 108.00 and bias questioned
  • Weekly Doji gives potential warning that supply is fading
  • 109.30 weekly cloud twists Aug and Dec could also attract the market
  • Key bigger picture levels are at 106.78 and 108.99

USD/JPY Daily Candle Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 19 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - Bearish Fight Back As 21DMA Again Shuts The Door
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 19 - 03:10 AM
  • Pullback from 1.1282 saps Wed-Thurs bull momentum
  • 21DMA at 1.1286 key: avg rejected price on 11-15 Jul
  • Converged 10 and 55DMas just stalling the drop at 1.1240-42
  • There is fresh weight in the market and bulls not in control
  • Cloud base now pivotal at 1.1227 along with week's 1.1200 low
  • Potential wkly hammer candle but flat averages highlight range trading
  • 1.1106 and 1.1412 the key range parameters

EUR/USD Trader

EUR/USD Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 19 - 02:36 AM
GBP/USD - Look For Downside If This Bounce Can't Cross 1.2625
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 19 - 01:15 AM
  • GBP/USD looks set to continue its slide if 1.2625 resistance holds
  • Ceiling of weekly Bollinger downtrend channel key to bearish view
  • Psych barrier at 1.2000 becomes more attractive target for shorts
  • Brexit negativity priced in, but USD tad oversold by twitchy traders
  • Mild rebound in UST yields aiding recovery of USD across the board
  • NY Fed clarified William's comments not about policy move

GBPweekly: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 19 - 01:24 AM
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 19 - 12:00 AM

EUR/USD: 

24-HOUR VIEW EUR could continue to trade in a choppy manner, likely within a 1.1220/1.1290 range. The sudden pickup in volatility was unexpected as EUR reversed an initial dip to 1.1203 and surged to an overnight high of 1.1280 (before dropping quickly after NY close). The rapid swings amidst mixed momentum indicators suggest EUR could continue to trade in a choppy manner, likely within a 1.1220/1.1290 range.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW EUR is expected to trade with sideways. After the sharp drop on in EUR on Tuesday, we indicated on Wednesday (17 Jul, spot at 1.1210) that EUR is “expected to trade with a downside bias”. We noted the lackluster momentum and held the view that EUR “is unlikely to accelerate lower”. That said, the rapid bounce during NY hours yesterday (after dovish Fed-speak) came as a surprise. The strong 1.1260 resistance was easily breached (high of 1.1280) and the mild downward pressure has dissipated. The outlook for EUR is mixed from here and it is likely to trade sideways in an ‘undecided’ manner, likely between 1.1200 and 1.1320 range.

GBP/USD: 

24-HOUR VIEW Scope for GBP to edge above last week’s 1.2580 peak, the next resistance at 1.2615 is likely out of reach. The strong advance in GBP yesterday came as a surprise as it cracked a couple of major strong resistance levels with ease and soared to a high of 1.2558 during late NY session. While the rapid rise appears to running ahead of itself, there is scope for GBP to edge above last week’s 1.2580 peak but the next resistance at 1.2615 is likely out of reach. Support is at 1.2495 but the stronger level is at 1.2460.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW GBP is likely to trade sideways. The manner of which GBP recouped the sharp decline from earlier this morning came as a surprise. GBP soared by +0.93% (largest 1day gain in 2-1/2 months) and easily took out our 1.2490 ‘key resistance’. The break of 1.2490 nullified our view from Tuesday (17 Jul, spot at 1.2430) wherein we expected GBP to “trade towards 1.2340”. While the sharp bounce yesterday suggests Tuesdays (17 Jul) low of 1.2382 could be a short-term bottom, it is too early to expect a sustained rebound. From here, GBP is likely to trade sideways, even though the immediate bias is for it to probe the top of the expected 1.2430/1.2640 range first.

AUD/USD: 

24-HOUR VIEW AUD is expected to consolidate its gains and trade sideways, likely within a 0.7035/0.7085. AUD not only rocketed past the strong 0.7050 resistance, it also cracked 0.7070 and registered a 3-month high of 0.7075. While further AUD gains would not be surprising in the coming days, the short-term rally is running too fast, too soon. That said, it is too early to expect a sustained pull-back. AUD is more likely to consolidate its gains and trade sideways at these higher levels. Expected range for today, 0.7035/0.7085.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW Strong upward pressure could lead AUD to 0.7110. After ‘hesitating’ below the major 0.7050/70 resistance zone for a couple of days, AUD suddenly blew past these major resistance levels and closed at a 3-month high of 0.7075 (thanks to dovish Fed-speak). As highlighted since Tuesday (16 Jul, spot at 0.7040), if AUD were to move and stay above 0.7070, it could extend its gains to 0.7110. All in, the mid to long-term outlook for AUD has turned brighter and if it can clear the major 0.7110 hurdle, it would suggest last month’s 0.6832 low could be a significant bottom (from the perspective of multiweeks). Meanwhile, the strong upward pressure in AUD could carry it higher to 0.7110 (next resistance is at 0.7150). On the downside, only a break of the 0.7000 ‘key support’ (level was a strong support at 0.6980 yesterday) would indicate that the current ‘positive phase’ in AUD has ended.

NZD/USD: 

24-HOUR VIEW NZD is likely to consolidate its gains and trade sideways, likely within a 0.6755/0.6495 range. NZD cracked the 0.6740 resistance level convincingly and surged to a 3-1/2 month high of 0.6786. The rapid rise is running ahead of itself, further NZD gains appear unlikely for today. NZD is more likely to consolidate its gain and trade sideways, likely within a 0.6755/0.6795 range.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW Chance for NZD to extend its gains to 0.6815, as high as 0.6835. We have held the same view since Tuesday (16 Jul, spot at 0.6720) wherein a “sustained NZD strength only if NZD were to close above 0.6740 in NY”. We added yesterday (18 Jul, spot at 0.6730) that “if NZD were to close above 0.6740, a break of 0.6780 would not be surprising”. NZD subsequently surged during NY hours yesterday and quickly exceeded 0.6780 (high of 0.6786). The faster than expected pace of advance has resulted in a strong pick-up in momentum and from here, we see chance for NZD to extend its gains to 0.6815, even as high as 0.6835. Only a break of the 0.6725 ‘key support’ (level was a strong support at 0.6685 yesterday) would indicate that the current ‘positive phase’ has ended.

USD/JPY: 

24-HOUR VIEW USD could dip below the overnight low of 107.20 but 107.00 would not be an easy While we expected USD to weaken yesterday, the rapid and sharp drop to an overnight low of 107.20 came as a surprise. Despite the bounce from the low, the underlying tone remains soft and from here, USD could dip below the overnight low but 107.00 would not be an easy support to crack. Resistance is at 107.75 followed by 108.00. The latter level is acting as a very strong resistance now.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW USD is expected to trade with a downside bias. The sideway-trading phase that started last Thursday (11 Jul, spot at 108.30) ended abruptly when USD crashed through the bottom of the expected 107.50/108.95 range and registered the largest 1-day decline in about one month (107.29, -0.60%). Despite the sharp decline, we have doubts about the sustainability of any USD weakness. That said, the immediate risk is tilted to the downside. For now, we expect USD to trade with a ‘downside bias’ towards last month’s 106.77 low. At this stage, the prospect for a sustained move below this level is not high. On the upside, only a move above the strong 108.20 resistance would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased.

Source:
UOB Research/Market Commentary
Jul 19 - 12:12 AM
EUR/USD - Claws Back Ground After Whippy Start In Asia
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 18 - 09:10 PM
  • EUR/USD recovers from dip caused by clarification on Fed Williams speech
  • NY Fed rep says Williams speech academic, not about potential policy actions
  • Williams speech had led to jump in Fed rate cut expectations
  • Chances of Fed 50 bps "insurance" rate cut in July now at 42%, down from 65%
  • Continuing speculation on more ECB stimulus, Italy politics cap euro rally
  • 1.1200-1.1300 range rules; only loss of 1.1180-90 removes threat of gains

Reuters Poll: What will the ECB do on July 25? png: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 18 - 11:00 PM
AUD/USD - Surges Above Cloud, Aims For 200 DMA On Dovish Fed
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 18 - 08:40 PM
  • AUD/USD surged past 0.7000 and above Ichimoku Cloud top Thurs
  • Inside Bollinger uptrend channel - base converges with Cloud at 0.7034
  • Closing above 200 DMA at 0.7091 would confirm third bullish signal
  • Rally triggered by very dovish-sounding Fed's Williams
  • NY Fed clarifies the speech was not about potential policy move
  • But damage done to USD, momentum selling may continue in near term

AUD: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 18 - 09:48 PM
USD/JPY - Rises On NY Fed Clarification Of Williams Speech
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 18 - 07:05 PM
  • USD/JPY rallies 0.3%, NY Fed says Williams speech not about potential policy
  • His earlier comments had led to jump in aggressive Fed rate cut expectations
  • Chances of Fed 50 bps "insurance" rate cut in July now at 42%, down from 65%
  • USD rally fades, traders convinced Fed pressing case for aggressive cuts
  • Support 107.20-30, 107.00; resistance 107.60, 107.80-85
  • Related : [

Bets on bold first rate-cut from the Fed png: Click here

Financial conditions indexes png: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 18 - 08:36 PM
AUD/USD - Outperforms As Fed Strains At Rate Cut Leash
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 18 - 06:15 PM
  • AUD/USD jumps 0.95% as Fed officials cement aggressive rate cut expectations
  • Chances of Fed 50 bps "insurance" rate cut in July soars to 65%
  • Trade war, benign inflation force departure from Fed "patience " on rates
  • Take it easy: central bank U-turns loosen financial conditions nL8N24E0K9
  • Fed rate stance contrasts with RBA in "wait and see" mode after its 2 cuts
  • Pair nears pivotal 200-DMA @ 0.7091; no daily close above since Mar15,2018
  • Above 0.7120 opens 0.7200-06, support 0.7045-50, 0.7000-10; buy dips

aud: Click here

Bets on bold first rate-cut from the Fed png: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 18 - 05:00 PM
EUR/CHF: 1.05 Seems 'Quite Conservative' Target Over This Summer - ING
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 18 - 12:16 PM

ING Research discusses EUR/CHF, and flags a scope for move towards 1.05 over the Summer.

"If we believe that conviction levels of ECB easing grow this summer, we should expect EUR/CHF to stay pressured. While the SNB’s nominal trade-weighted CHF index is on its highs, the inflation-adjusted ‘real’ index is not," ING notes. 

"This latter measure of the CHF is some 5% off the highs seen in summer 2015 (largely due to low inflation in Switzerland relative to trading partners) and a retest of that 2015 high would equate to EUR/CHF hitting the 1.05 area. That seems quite a conservative target for EUR/CHF this summer," ING adds. 

Source:
ING Research/Market Commentary
Jul 18 - 03:48 PM
GBP/USD - REFILE-BUZZ-Reduced No-Deal Brexit View, Dovish Williams Lifts GBP/USD
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 18 - 01:25 PM

Adds Williams content

  • GBP/USD rallies into NY close, +0.77% at 1.2525, NY range 1.2528-1.2429
  • UK ret sales beat nL9N1WP01O and soft Brexit tones nL8N24J2NQ lift
  • Dovish comments by Fed's Williams gives added push higher nN9N23A01H
  • GBP sellers take a break; but Brexit, low-growth fears linger
  • Irish PM: will listen to alternatives to N.Ireland backstop nS8N21L010
  • EUR/GBP dips below 0.90, -0.39% to 0.8995 as softer Brexit tones boost GBP

GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 18 - 02:36 PM
AUD/USD - COMMENT-Jobs Data, RBA Expectations Have AUD/USD Close To Big Gains
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 18 - 12:35 PM

With bullish factors taking hold, AUD/USD longs may be on the verge of making some big gains.
Indeed, Australian June jobs data showed the unemployment rate sticking at 5.2%, which could make the RBA uncomfortable.
The elevated participation rate, which suggests a robust jobs market, is helping to keep the unemployment rate at current levels though.
Bolstering views of a buoyant employment picture was full time employment coming in at 21.1k versus the prior 2.4k.
As a result, Australian-U.S.
yield spreads tightened while 3-month bank bill futures prices YBAM0 dipped slightly.
This suggests lower chances for RBA rate cuts.
Currently 19bps of RBA cuts are priced in to Q-2 2020 versus nearly 95bps of Fed cuts for the same time period.
The expected rate path disparity, and upbeat Australian job market, helped drive AUD/USD towards 0.7050 option barriers.
Technicals suggest a break of that barrier is likely as RSIs are biased up, the daily cloud top has been pierced and a long legged doji is forming for July.
A break of the barrier, and the April 30 high, will encourage bulls.
The 200-DMA and 0.7140/60 zone can then be targeted.

chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 18 - 01:24 PM
GBP: Time To Adopt A More Neutral Stance On Sterling - Citi
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 18 - 11:40 AM

Citi discusses GBP outlook and adopts a more neutral stance in the near-term.

"Notwithstanding this week’s Brexit developments (that leads markets to further raise the odds of a “No Deal”) there appear to be some areas where a possible compromise may be possible especially as the EU (under its new leadership) has indicated its willingness to look at making a formal link between achieving a post-Brexit future trade deal and the payment of GBP39bn UK’s financial settlement, something that Boris Johnson has also indicated that he would seek," Citi notes. 

"While the EU and UK may still be far off any compromise agreement as their stances seem to be hardening on the Irish backstop, there are also areas where the 2 sides seem to be more aligned and which could potentially create the right conditions for further talks. At sub 1.2500, a “No Deal” Brexit outcome now appears to be more seriously discounted into sterling and it may be time to adopt a more neutral stance on sterling as we await further development," Citi adds. 

Source:
Citi Research/Market Commentary
Jul 18 - 12:12 PM
GBP/USD - Stays Sub-1.25 Despite Blow For No-Deal Brexit Fans
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 18 - 10:20 AM
  • Offers by 1.25 keep lid on cable after MPs back bid to hamper no-deal Brexit
  • See: nL8N24J2NQ. 1.2494 two-day high approximates to 10DMA
  • GBP/USD broke below 1.25 earlier this week, courtesy of no-deal Brexit fears
  • 1.2382 was Wednesday's 27-month low, before some profit-taking on GBP shorts
  • That profit-take flow also helped deflate EUR/GBP from 0.9051, to 0.8980
  • 1.2486 was cable's Ldn am high, after big UK retail sales beat nL8N24J2CB

GBPUSD: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 18 - 11:00 AM
AUD: Strong Capital Flow Backdrop; USD: DXY About 3% Rich To Gold Moves - TD
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 18 - 09:35 AM

TD Research discusses the current market conditions and flags a scope for AUD upside, while notes that the Dollar Index 'DXY' is around 3% overvalued in realtion to Gold moves.

"We still think AUD has the most potential given a strengthening capital flow backdrop. This setup should help to offset the lost carry advantage as the RBA cuts rates. There aren't huge valuation gaps across the group but again NZD holds the weakest hand, reflecting HFFV and our growth signals," TD notes. 

"The other side of the story lies in the soggy US earnings releases that fits with our view that US equities probably have the most room to correct. Our equity momentum factor is short to neutral for the USD, though the EUR does not offer much more appealing prospects.

The question remain what to buy against the USD and many continue to default to gold that reinforces the anti-USD bid - DXY about 3% rich to gold moves," TD adds. 

Source:
TD Bank Research/Market Commentary
Jul 18 - 08:36 AM
AUD/USD - Respects Mooted Offers After Aussie Jobs Data
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 18 - 06:20 AM
  • Mooted offers at 0.7040 are helping to keep a lid on AUD/USD
  • 0.7039 was the European am high vs 0.7005 Asian session low
  • Stops may be sheltering above 0.7050 (option barrier level)
  • 0.7045 was Tuesday's high. 0.7048 was July 4 high and May 7 high
  • Australian full-time employment jumped by 21k in June nL4N24J0LQ
  • RBA is expected to keep its cash rate at 1.0% next month (Aug 6)

AUDUSD: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 18 - 07:24 AM
GBP/USD - Bears Jolted But Attractive Sell Levels Close By
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 18 - 05:00 AM
  • Wed doji candle hints at mkt indecision and potential for direction change
  • Price regains levels above daily tenkan line and eyes the 10DMA at 1.2496
  • Still respecting the underlying bearish bias and looking to fade the rally
  • A 38.2% Fibo off 1.2784-1.2382 comes at 1.2536 and provides a trigger
  • Day trend res. off Jun 25 1.2784 hi close behind at 1.2550, would stop abv
  • Watching weekly hammers formation for stronger reversal signals longer-term

GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 18 - 06:12 AM
EUR/USD - SNB Operations To Box In EUR/USD But Ultimately To Weigh
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 18 - 03:50 AM
  • Recent rise in sight deposits may mean SNB supporting EUR/CHF nAPN03C4R4
  • EUR/CHF has reached levels likely to see SNB intervene
  • Given how quiet it is SNB intervention may dominate FX flows
  • Initial EUR/CHF buying should logically underpin the broader euro
  • Later rebalancing will weigh as euros are sold for USD, GBP, JPY and CAD
  • An already range bound EUR/USD further boxed in, vols to sink, weigh euro

EUR/CHF monthly Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 18 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - FX Traders Look To High 1.12S On Close Above 100DMA
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 18 - 02:50 AM
  • Rebound out of 1.1200 Wed low marginally breaches the daily cloud
  • Cloud thin and offers minor resistance but note thickens from today thru Aug
  • Close above the cloud today could hold significance, top is at 1.1240
  • 50% Fibo off the recent 1.1285 to 1.1200 drop comes at 1.1243
  • Our 1.1235 long play back in the game as price reverses
  • Pivotal Thurs resistance at 1.1250, 100DMA: high 1.12s possible by the w/e
  • Bear momentum beginning to fade but still working off big early July losses

EUR/USD Trader

EUR/USD daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 18 - 03:48 AM
EUR/USD - Edges Higher As US Yields Continue To Ease
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 17 - 11:40 PM
  • US yields continued to ease in Asia and weighed on USD sentiment
  • EUR/USD opened 1.1225 and was trading just above 1.1240 into the afternoon
  • The move above the 10-day MA (1.1236) targets the 21-day MA at 1.1286
  • Dovish Fed expectations proving persistent and supporting EUR/USD
  • Option related bids tipped around 1.1200 with support round 1.1180

eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Jul 18 - 02:36 AM
AUD/USD - Grinds Higher After Post-Aus Jobs Short-Covering
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 17 - 11:30 PM
  • AUD/USD opened 0.7010 and was steady ahead of the Aus jobs data
  • Data as expected nL4N24J0I9 and after dip to 0.7005 it tracked higher
  • AUD underperformed in days leading up to jobs data and then played catch-up
  • AUD/USD moved above yesterday's 0.7025 to a high at 0.7033
  • Heading into the afternoon is was trading just below 0.7030
  • AUD/NZD rallied from a 4-month low at 1.0404 to 1.0435
  • AUD/USD rally was short-covering as it doesn't change RBA expectations
  • Resistance at 0.7045 while 10-day MA at 0.6991 is support

aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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