eur/usd Click here 
Barclays Research discusses the JPY outlook and prefers downside in JPY crosses than in USD/JPY to express a hedge for risk-off moves in the near-term.
"Shorting XXXJPY rather than USD/JPY will likely remain a more effective hedge against general risk-off moves for the time being, but a diversification from the cumulative risk in USD should gradually exert downside pressure on the USD, weakening its safe-haven status, and re-strengthen the correlation between USD/JPY and risk assets," Barclays argues.
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NAB discusses AUD/USD technical outlook and maintains flagging bullish medium-term setup targeting a move towards 0.7447. (see here)
"The weekly close three weeks ago completed a bullish multi-week candle pattern (tower bottom) while breaking and closing above the 2018 downtrend, now support below 0.7100. A likely MT bottom confirmed," NAB notes.
"Last week’s close above the previous correction high at 0.7315 was the first higher high of 2018 and confirmed a break of the MT downtrend structure.
Recent bullish triggers confirm an evolving bullish MT reversal with a minimum target at the 38.2% retracement towards 0.7447," NAB adds.
chart: Click here 
AUD/USD's rally off October's low paused today after hitting a new high last Friday, but bulls are likely to regroup soon.
Weakness in China's yuan, due to heightened U.S.-Sino trade tensions, is weighing on AUD/USD, which is clinging to the 23.6 percent Fib retracement of 2018's down trend.
But traders in AUD/USD longs are likely to be heartened by today's big U.S. NAHB downside, which has led 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to test support near 3.05%.
The slide in yields has tightened Australia-U.S.
spreads and eroded more of the greenback's yield advantage.
The data miss gives credence to market speculation that the Fed's rate hike path will be less aggressive than its current projections imply, which should keep the greenback heavy.
Reductions in long-U.S.
dollar and short-AUD positions will factor in, buoying AUD/USD as those positions remain extremely far from flat.
The upcoming RBA minutes might be upbeat and lift AUD/USD as recent Australian data has surprised to the topside.
As long as AUD/USD holds above key 0.7160/70 support the rally should resume and a test of the 0.7480/00 zone is likely.
chart: Click here 
Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and advises against selling the pair around current levels.
"All eyes this week will be on the EU Commission’s response to the revised Italian budget as well as preliminary November PMI releases. Any sign of a rebound in manufacturing-sector related business activity would be taken as a positive indication for the trade related capital flow situation. This has the potential to trigger further currency upside, especially as elevated speculative short positioning is keeping position squaring-related upside risks firmly intact. When it comes to Italy we believe many negatives are in the price and that implies the bar for positive surprises seems low," CACIB notes.
"As a result to the above outlined conditions we argue against selling the single currency around the current levels," CACIB argues.
EUR/USD is benefiting from nagging doubts over the Fed's ability to keep raising rates and dollar's waning momentum, but there are still some obstacles to a renewed rally. Sliding U.S. Treasury yields are tightening German-U.S.
spreads and contributing to the dollar doubts.
That's boosting EUR/USD and increasing the likelihood of testing 1.1500 resistance, with upwardly biased RSIs, with no divergence, and EUR/USD ability to continue holding above the 10- and 21-DMAs enhancing that view.
However, a break above 1.1500 might be difficult.
While tighter Italian-German spreads have helped buoy EUR/USD there is a risk they begin widening again, which could erase recent EUR/USD gains.
The EU's response to Italy's budget is expected Wednesday and an excessive deficit procedure from Brussels might begin. Italian-German spreads might widen again if BTPs come under pressure. If EUR/USD can't clear 1.1500 resistance, then the pair will probably consolidate in the 1.1200/1.1500 range until a new catalyst gains emerges.
chart: Click here 
MUFG Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and highlights the recent dovish shift in Fed's rhetoric which provided some support for the pair but argues that upside is likely to be limited in the near-term.
"The Fed is expected to hike rates again in December, but these more dovish comments raise the likelihood that the Fed will consider pausing rate hikes in 2019 rather than continuing to hikes rates every quarter as they have done so far this year. It is more in line with our own Fed policy expectations which supports our outlook for US dollar strength to ease from next year," MUFG notes.
"Nevertheless, the euro is still subject to downside risks of its own which limits upside potential for EUR/USD...While Fed comments drove EUR/USD higher on Friday, the market focus this week will likely be on the EC response on Wednesday which will be negative, with the potential volatility from co-movement with the pound from Brexit developments as well. In these circumstances, it is difficult to see the euro building much on gains from late last week against the US dollar," MUFG argues.
EBS Flow Chart: Click here 
AUDUSD: Click here 
USD/JPY Trader:
Daily Fibo Chart: Click here 
EUR/USD daily chart Click here 
EUR/USD weekly Click here 
Repeat with no changes
EUR-JPY Position Chart: Click here 
eur/usd Click here 
EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Rebound in EUR could extend further to 1.1500.
We indicated early last Friday (16 Nov, spot at 1.1330) “downward pressure has eased” and EUR has “found a short-term bottom near 1.1215”. We expected “1.1215 to stay intact for the next one week or so” and also expected “EUR to trade sideways albeit with a positive bias within a 1.1240/1.1430 range”. What we did not expect was the strong and rapid surge in EUR during NY hours (closed at 1.1418, +0.81%). While Friday’s peak of 1.1421 was below the top of the expected 1.1240/1.1430 range at 1.1430, the price action suggests the current rebound in EUR could extend further to 1.1500 (high seen earlier this month). This is a rather strong resistance and at this stage, the prospect for a clear break above this level is not high. All in, we hold a ‘positive’ EUR view from here until there is a break of the ‘key support’ 1.1310.
GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Prospect of a fresh low for the year has increased. No change in view.
Volatility remains at an elevated level and the whippy price actions over the past few days offer no strong clues on the direction of the next directional move. However, the outsized decline of -1.59% yesterday (NY close of 1.2775) does suggest that the risk of a break of the 1.2662 year-to-date low has increased. All in, we expect GBP to stay pressure in the coming days unless it can move and stay above the 1.2980. Looking ahead, a break of the year-to-date low could lead to acceleration lower towards the next support at 1.2590.
AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Next level to focus on is at 0.7380.
The 0.7315 level that first highlighted more than a week ago (see update on 08 Nov, spot at 0.7275) was finally exceeded as AUD hit a high of 0.7338 last Friday (16 Nov). While we still prefer upward momentum to be more ‘impulsive’, the break of 0.7315 has shifted the focus to the next major resistance at 0.7380 (with a relatively strong ‘intervening’ resistance at 0.7355). On the downside, the ‘key support has moved sharply higher to 0.7220 from 0.7150 previously. On a shorter-term note, 0.7250 is already a strong support level.
NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Expect further NZD strength to 0.6900.
We indicated last Friday (16 Nov, spot at 0.6825) a “NY closing above 0.6850 would suggest further NZD strength to 0.6900”. NZD subsequently staged a surprisingly strong rise before closing at 0.6879 in NY (well above the 0.6850 level). From here, the focus is at 0.6900 and break of this level would indicate that NZD has found a mid to long-term bottom at 0.6424 last month. In other words, a break of 0.6900 would suggest the 0.6424 low would likely remain intact in the coming weeks, possibly months. Meanwhile, only a move below 0.6800 (‘key support’ previously at 0.6750) would suggest that an interim top is in place.
USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): Chance for USD to weaken further to 112.00.
We highlighted last Friday (16 Nov, spot at 113.55) “USD is to trade sideways with a downward bias”. However, the subsequent large decline of -0.70% (NY close of 112.82) is certainly more than a ‘downward bias’. The price action has resulted in a rapid increase in downward momentum and from here; we see chance for USD to weaken further to 112.00. Only a move back above the ‘key resistance’ at 113.60 would indicate that the downward pressure has eased.
EUR: Click here 
