• USD/JPY has risen from 158.67 to 159.08, on Wednesday, EBS data shows

• Spot has broken above the 159.03, September 24 high, a bullish sign

• However, traders are wary of intervention in USD/JPY above 159.00

• Recall USD/JPY closed above the daily cloud, that currently spans 157.14-158.42, on Tuesday

• EUR/JPY usually rises in November; chart hints at repeat

Daily Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• One-month EUR/USD vol 5.7 vs historic lows around 4.0

• This despite pair's recent slide to a 2026 low

• Volatility recently lessening as EUR/USD has dropped

• Options imply less chance of greater movement

• EUR/USD traders get a signal to sell

• The Big EUR/USD short is increasingly hard to justify

•
EURUSD and vol

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD 21-WMA falling below 100-WMA - sell signal

• The pair dropped to 1.1140 in wake US CPI data

• The 2026 low is 1.1105

• The 200-weekly moving average is 1.1112

• Mid-point of 2025-2026 rise from 1.0125 to 1.2084 is 1.1105

• Close below 1.1105 (1.1100) would target drop toward 1.0850

• The Big EUR/USD short is increasingly hard to justify

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY closed above the cloud, that currently spans 157.14-158.42, on Tuesday

• That puts the overall focus on the 159.03, September 24 high

• Spot has seen a 158.67-158.96 range so far, on Wednesday, according to EBS data

• Good offers still around 159.00 capping upside, may include Japan exporters

• Note FX traders are wary of intervention in USD/JPY above 159.00

• EUR/JPY usually rises in November; chart hints at repeat

Daily Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 22 pip range thus far Wednesday; 1.3333-1.3355

• Tuesday low was 1.3312, after USD rose on hot US CPI, hawkish Fed officials

• Quarter-point Fed hike on Dec 9 is fully priced; 12% chance of 50 bps hike

• 1.3312 is lowest level since Oct 29 (1.3299 was low that day)

• Tuesday high was 1.3459, before dollar strengthened on Fed's Waller

• Next BoE rate decision on Dec 17: markets see 66% chance of 25 bps hike

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Anax Metals rise as much as 25% to A$0.04, their biggest intraday percentage gain since February

• Stock posts its highest level since September 28

• The mineral explorer says drilling at its Mons Cupri project in the Pilbara region of Western Australia identified a potential new zinc-silver zone

• Near 15.1 million shares change hands, 7.5x the 30-day average volume

• Stock up 94.7%, YTD, including moves in current session

(Reporting by Swetha Lakshmi in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD +0.2% Wed as risk sentiment improves in Asia, Nasdaq futures +1.2%

• CoreWeave +17.1% in extended hours trading after beating quarterly estimates

• Building Fed rate hike anxiety likely to keep lid on moves

• Futures pricing currently implies 88% chance of 25 bps Fed hike on Dec 9

• AUD 0.6835 support pivotal, break below opens door for much larger fall

• AU Q3 housing finance -15.5% q/q, investment housing finance -32.3% q/q

• RBA Nov meeting minutes due & Governor Bullock speaking at ASIC forum Nov 17

• Overnight range 0.6865-85 support 0.6835 0.6662, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD steadies in Asia after closing 0.7% lower on Tue on sticky US CPI

• Undermined by hawkish Fed talk, possibility of more aggressive rate hikes

• Waller floats 50 bps Dec rate hike, Logan says rapid rate-hike pace possible

• GBP seen in a choppy 1.3300-1.3500 range as hawkish BoE offsets Fed hawks

• UK inflation to overshoot BoE target for next 4 years, NIESR forecasts

• UK Q3 and Sep GDP, industrial and manufacturing output, trade data due Thu

• Support 1.3300-10, 1.3270-75, resistance 1.3400-10, 1.3430

• Tuesday range 1.33115-1.3459, Asia 1.3343-1.3355
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD heavy after fall to 1.1145 yesterday, Asia 1.1159-70 EBS

• Back below ascending hourly Ichimoku cloud between 1.1182-1.1200

• USD broadly bid after hot CPI data, on higher US yields

• Certainty of a Fed hike in December too, chance of 50 bp move 10%

• Option expiries today include E3.8 bln on 1.11, E8.1 bln between 1.1200-50

• Expiries to help contain spot, upside very limited on mega-expiries

• EUR/GBP better bid after rally to 0.8372 yesterday, NY close 0.8366

• Option expiries 0.8325-50 E1.2 bln, 0.8365-80 E338 mln, 0.8400 E936 mln

• EUR/CHF also bid, 0.9219-20 EBS, above yesterday's 0.9217 high

• EUR/JPY in stasis, 177.23-30 EBS after a 177.04-70 range yesterday

• Option expiries today include E614 mln below at 176.00 strike

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/USD:


EUR/USD nearby option expiries this week:


EUR/CHF:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Thur, but still pressured amid firming Fed rate hike bets

• AU Q3 housing finance -15.5% q/q, investment housing finance -32.3% q/q

• AUD 0.6835 support critical, break below opens door for much bigger fall

• Futures pricing currently implies 88% chance of 25 bps Fed hike on Dec 9

• Fed Governor Waller floats potential preference for 50 bps FFR hike

• Hotter than anticipated U.S. inflation data drives DXY & UST yields higher

• RBA Nov meeting minutes due & Governor Bullock speaking at ASIC forum Nov 17

• Overnight range 0.6865-715 support 0.6835 0.6662, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Hot US CPI data raised US yields and spurred talk of maybe a 50 bp Fed hike

• Such talk augmented by Fed's Waller who said 50 bp hike should be considered

• USD/JPY rallied to 158.85 EBS on back of this talk, Asia so far 158.69-71

• USD/JPY back above 157.13-158.42 daily Ichimoku cloud, near 158.70 200-DMA

• Descending 100-DMA just above at 159.00, FX intervention risk too 159.00+

• Break above 159.00 bullish however, pair not above 100-DMA since September 2

• Option expiries today larger below than above

• Between 157.00-158.00 total $5.6 bln+, between 158.95-159.00 total $623 mln

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials widen some, 2s @277, 10s @218 bps

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , more on Fed , on US CPI

• US markets , , ,
USD/JPY:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research on Gold outlook. 

"In commodities, the sharp decline in crude oil triggered some long unwinds, and further weakness could bring additional selling from CTAs that remain stretched long," BofA notes

"Gold shorts remain elevated, but the rebound has brought the first buy-to-cover triggers to roughly 2% above current levels. Trend followers also stopped out of copper longs this week, while selling could broaden across the soybean complex next week.

BofA targets Gold prices around $4,000 per troy ounce by year-end with marginal lows s below that level.

• NZD/USD -0.8% from Tue 0.5649 high after Fed rate hike bets firm markedly

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller flags possibility of 50 bps hike

• Futures pricing now implies 88% probability of 25 bps Fed hike on Dec 9

• U.S. Oct core CPI +0.3% m/m (poll 0.2%), headline CPI +0.4% m/m (poll 0.3%)

• NZD appears to be resuming downside bias, targets 0.5485 support zone

• NZ Oct electronic card retail sales due Thur (prior -0.4% m/m, +0.9% y/y)

• NZ PM Luxon likely to retain power, but may need more minor party support

• Range NZ 0.55915-0.56045, support 0.5485, resistance 0.5710 0.5995 0.6012
DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA


NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.9% from Tue 0.69295 high as hot U.S. inflation update impacts

• U.S. Oct core CPI +0.3% m/m (poll 0.2%), headline CPI +0.4% m/m (poll 0.3%)

• Broad USD index 0.6% firmer and UST yields higher across the curve

• Futures pricing now implies 88% probability of Fed rate hike on Dec 9

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller flags possibility of 50 bps hike

• AUD 0.6835 support critical, break below opens door for much bigger fall

• Overnight range 0.6844-0.69295 support 0.6835 0.6662, resistance 0.7140
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA


DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar burst higher on Tuesday after surprisingly strong US CPI data lifted Treasury yields as investors increased their bets on Fed tightening.

The report showed monthly core inflation running at 0.3%, above expectations for 0.2%, and headline at 0.4%, versus the consensus forecast for 0.3%.

The release came after Fed Governor Chris Waller had said that the US central bank ought to consider raising rates by 50bps in December if October monthly CPI inflation came in at 0.3% or higher.

In a similar vein, Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said after the CPI report that the US central bank needs to deliver at least two more quarter-percentage-point interest rate increases to bring down inflation, and may need to do so promptly to keep broadening price pressures from getting baked into the economy.

The overall level of troubled borrowing in the US economy rose modestly in the third quarter but did not appear to signal a notable deterioration in credit quality, a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said.

Treasury yields rose 10-19 bps across maturities, led by the front end. The 2s-10s curve flattened by 5.93 bps at the mid rate.

EUR/USD fell fell below its 10- and 21-day moving averages, with a monthly gravestone doji adding to the bearish signals.

The US CPI report unraveled any support sterling derived from hawkish comments delivered by Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli, who had said conditions for persistent inflation in Britain are crystallizing.

AUD/USD struck an eight-month low with RSIs indicating downward momentum.

USD/JPY gains left it eyeing the 159 level, with expectations that 160 could be next.

The S&P 500 was trading down 0.64% in the New York afternoon as the increased US rate-hike expectations hurt risk appetite.

WTI fell 0.96% and Brent weakened another 1.17%, adding to recent losses.

Copper was down 1.42%, gold slid 2.68% and silver skidded 3.85% lower.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD-0.53%, USD/JPY +0.57%, GBP/USD -0.76%, AUD/USD -0.93%, DXY +0.6%, EUR/JPY -0.03%, GBP/JPY -0.16%, AUD/JPY -0.37%.(Burton Frierson)

MUFG Research on EUR positioning.

"The recent unfavourable combination of higher energy prices and government borrowing costs particularly in France has reinforced euro selling pressure. The release of the latest IMM positioning report at the end of last week revealed leveraged funds are heavily short the euro," MUFG notes.

"Short euro positions have increased sharply since mid-September and have hit their highest level since the start of the COVID shock in early 2020. It leaves the euro vulnerable to a short squeeze in the near-term if the investor concerns over the scale of the energy shock continue to fade," MUFG adds,

MUFG targes EUR/USD at 1.12 by year-end.

• USD/JPY was higher on the CPI beat

• Core was 0.3% vs 0.2% f/c, the trigger Waller flagged for a possible 50bp December hike

• Markets now price a 12% probability of a 50bp hike

• Spot hit a fresh monthly high at 158.85, nearing range tops at 158.95-159.03

• A position squeeze in US fixed income sees the 2-year yield rise 20bps, the most since April 2025

• 159 is key. A clean break opens 160 quickly, while a hold keeps the consolidation intact
USDJPY daily

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

ANZ Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and targets.

"USD/JPY has traded broadly in a 157–159 range in the last few weeks, with some marginal falls towards 156. The BoJ's October hold was hawkish with board member Hajime Takata’s dissent in favour of a hike. The Board's first acknowledgement that underlying inflation is "generally consistent" with 2% mattered more than the decision itself. Governor Ueda's refusal to ‘wait and see’, stressing decisions are taken "at every meeting, including the next one", alongside a faster ETF sell-down, keeps the December decision live in our view, though markets are only reflecting a 50% probability of a hike," ANZ notes.

"We expect hikes in December and March, taking the policy rate to 1.75%. The risk is that those hikes move out to January. Smaller firms are deferring capital expenditure, making December’s Tankan inflation expectations pivotal. Yet the BoJ's forecasts imply a prolonged overshoot, weakening the case for an extended pause," ANZ adds.

ANZ targets USD/JPY at 156 by year-end and 154 in Q1 of 2027.

(adds space in 6th bullet)

• Cable extends south to 1.3375 as risk of 50 bps Fed hike on Dec 9 buoys USD

• Half-point hike risk prompted by hotter than expected US October CPI data

• 1.3375 is intra-day low. 1.3418 was low before the US CPI data release

• Bids may emerge around 1.3350 (Monday low) if GBP/USD falls further

• 1.3343 was one-week low last Friday (after dollar rose on NFP beat)

• BoE's Lombardelli sees risk that persistent inflation will crystallise

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs flags a seasonal pattern for AUD/NZD to trend lower in November.

"There are idiosyncratic reasons for peripheral USDs to come under pressure. The NZ elections trimmed the left tail on NZD (incumbents will continue to form the base of a coalition, no dual mandate)," GS notes.

"But the seasonality for AUDNZD-lower in November already has a headstart with the cross -1.6% on the month, and that’s with reverberations of the end-Oct mis-step by the RBNZ (held vs. +24bps priced-in) and weaker NZ employment data last week," GS adds.

Goldman Sachs targets AUD/USD at 0.7200, NZD/USD at 0.6000, and AUD/NZD at 1.2000 by year-end.

CIBC Research reviews the October CPI report.

"Both headline and core CPI came in hotter than consensus expectation for October, solidifying the odds of a December rate hike. Total CPI grew 0.4% m/m, higher than the 0.3% expected by the consensus. Gasoline explained almost all of the slowdown in the monthly pace of headline inflation. Food inflation saw a notable pick up this month as its monthly pace increased from 0% to 0.5% in October, both food at home and restaurants accelerated. Core CPI grew 0.3% m/m, higher than the consensus expectation of 0.2%. Core goods increased 0.2% m/m, a touch below last month’s pace, the deceleration is partly due to a monthly contraction in used cars and trucks after the solid growth last month. On core services, shelter increased 0.3%, slightly slower than September due to slower growth in hotels. Transportation services posted a solid growth of 0.8%, the highest since January, driven by motor vehicles related services such as motor vehicle insurance and fees," CIBC notes.

"With both headline and core CPI firmer than expected and the upside surprise was somewhat broad-based, we think that will convince the FOMC to deliver a 25 bps hike in its upcoming December meeting," CIBC adds.

• AUD/USD hit 0.6930 overnight, sellers emerged then the pair turned lower

• Broad-based USD buying, firm US yields weighed on the pair

• Drops in gold, silver and copper also helped to weigh down AUD/USD

• 0.6909 traded in Europe, NY opened nearby, pair was down -0.21% early NY

• AUD/USD remains within Friday's daily range, suggests bounce is corrective

• Falling daily, monthly RSIs, hold below 10- & 21-DMAs add to bear signals

• US October CPI looms, if above estimate USD, US yields could rally
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Gold down from $4146/oz to $4073/oz on Tuesday

• The 55-DMA set to cross below 100-DMA - bearish

• US CPI expected 0.2% in Oct vs 0.3% mm Sep

• Range of 68 forecasts in Reuters poll is 0.1%-0.3%

• Targets for a drop: $3823, $3726, $3628, $3489, $3312

• US bond buy signal may spark short squeeze, hurt USD

•
gold sell signal and targets

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Nov 10 (Reuters) - AUD/USD may be setting up a bullish reversal after a prolonged slide, with a harami pattern taking shape.

A potential bullish harami candlestick pattern might be forming on the daily chart after a sustained AUD/USD downtrend. A large black (bearish) candle pushed price lower, and a smaller white (bullish) candle followed, opening and closing within that large body. This suggests selling pressure may be fading.

A daily close above the 0.6942 high of the large black candle would support a reversal, as would a break and close above the 0.6945 Fibonacci level, a 23.6% retrace of the 0.7238 to 0.6855 (September to November) drop. That would unmask the 0.7001 Fibonacci level, 38.2% of the same 0.7238 to 0.6855 fall.

AUD/USD held on to gains on Tuesday as a plunge in oil prices fuelled a rally in risk assets, although a string of weak survey results painted a bleak outlook of the Australian open and export-heavy economy. A break below the recent 0.6855 low would invalidate the harami pattern.
Daily Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)