USD/JPY may ultimately continue along the path of least resistance, with underlying fundamentals still favoring the dollar and a favorable risk tone on Monday underpinning yen crosses.

The yen remains defensive amid a combination of elevated oil prices, continued Bank of Japan accommodation, and lingering fiscal concerns tied to expansionary policy. While rising yields have renewed interest in owning JGBs, the steeper yield curve has yet to translate into sustained yen support as the BOJ keeps policy rates anchored near zero. Reports that the BOJ may be increasingly concerned about the growth impact of higher oil linked to the Iran conflict add uncertainty around the prospects for an April rate hike. That conflict itself risks further escalation ahead of President Donald Trump’s Tuesday deadline for potential U.S. strikes.

By contrast, the dollar continues to benefit from inflation concerns and haven demand. As such, USD/JPY risk reversals show little sign of either short-term or longer-term yen support.

Still, USD/JPY is not likely to move sharply higher given intervention risks above 160 and a BOJ policy meeting later this month.

For now, fundamentals argue for the pair remaining in an uptrend. That view could change quickly given elevated convexity. A close below its nearby 21-day moving average at 159.11 and 158 pivot level would help neutralize bullish momentum, shifting focus toward cloud resistance near 155.77.
Yen


JPY riskies


(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Nomura Research discusses JPY outlook and the scope for intervention.

"Since USD/JPY briefly rose above 160 last Friday , the Japanese authorities have stepped up verbal intervention . While growing caution over actual intervention is seen as limiting further upside in USD/JPY, unless there is a clear improvement in the Middle East situation and a more substantial correction in crude oil prices, upward pressure on USD/JPY is likely to persist,": Nomura notes.

"Fundamentals, including the BOJ Tankan, also remain solid , and if this week’ s BOJ branch managers’ meeting increases the likelihood of an April rate hike, JPY is likely to find near-term support. On the level at which intervention may occur, caution is warranted over the possibility of actual JPY-buying intervention in the 161–163 range," Nomura adds.

GBP/USD is receiving a welcome lift as risk sentiment improves on hopes that a peace deal can be reached before President Donald Trump’s Tuesday evening deadline for potential attacks on Iranian infrastructure, but the outlook remains troubled for sterling.

The pair is finding initial support ahead of the 1.3000–1.3150 congestion zone from late last year, helping to slow the two-month downtrend. Unrelated to geopolitical developments but supportive for bulls, sterling is also entering its seasonally strongest month in April.

That said, the broader backdrop remains challenging. Escalating conflict that keeps oil prices elevated and bond markets defensive tends to undermine GBP, as the USD captures the bulk of the haven flows. Rising global yields also rekindle concerns around the UK’s fiscal position. USD strength is reinforced by a hawkish stance from Fed officials amid persistent inflation risks. Monday’s ISM services survey showed ongoing expansion, with the prices paid component hitting its highest level since 2022. This week’s inflation slate, including Thursday's February core PCE and Friday’s March CPI, adds further event risk.

For GBP to reverse its bearish trend, stronger technical confirmation is required. Extremely bearish risk reversals and elevated option convexity suggest scope for a sharp, mean-reverting bounce.

Still, the pair must first reclaim the falling 21-day moving average at 1.3326 and challenge layered resistance below 1.35. A sustained break above 1.35 would tilt momentum back in favor of bulls; failure to do so risks a renewed test of key support just above 1.30, including the two-year ascending trendline.
GBP


(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

ANZ Research previews this week's RBNZ April meeting and NZD outlook.

"We continue to expect a single 25bp rate hike from the RBNZ this year in December. While a hold is fully priced at the RBNZ’s 8 April meeting, any change in tone, particularly around the implications of the Middle East conflict will be important for near-term rate expectations. Nonetheless, global risk sentiment is likely to remain the dominant driver of NZD in the near term," ANZ notes.

"Further increases in energy prices would also weigh on the currency via its terms of trade, given New Zealand’s status as a net energy importer. With geopolitical tensions likely to remain elevated in the near term, we see scope for mild downside pressure in NZD/USD over the month ahead,' ANZ adds.

Goldman Sachs Research previews this week's RBNZ policy meeting and NZD outlook.

"This week’s RBNZ meeting seems unlikely to encourage further hawkish repricing across markets...Against a backdrop of much more hawkish reactions to oil price shocks from other G10 central banks, the RBNZ has sounded consistently dovish," GS notes.

"Without domestic policy support, we expect NZD to continue to trade in step with US yields for now. Despite the inflation-driven nature of the rise in 10y yields and tightening in FCI, the currency remains vulnerable to rising yields...

While the market has shown only limited signs of pricing in a larger hit to global growth, NZD is still likely to see weakening pressure from more persistent upward pressure to oil prices," GS adds.

• EUR/USD hit 1.1506 in Asia, buyers emerged, 1.1569 traded in Europe's morning

• NY opened near 1.1545, the pair traded up +0.15% in early action

• Broad-based US$ selling lifted the pair, hopes for US-Iran deal weighed down the US$

• Drops in oil, USD/CNH helped buoy EUR/USD; gold, equity gains also helped the lift

• Some US$ buying into NY's open helped EUR/USD drop from its overnight high

• EUR/USD fell back below the 10- & 21-DMAs which could be concerns for bulls

• US March non-mfg PMI & Pres. Trump's Tuesday deadline for Iran deal are key risks
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD rallied 0.6878-0.6935 overnight, NY opened near 0.6925, up +0.64%

• US$ slid on report US, Iran received plans to hostilities, immediate ceasefire

• Oil , USD/CNH fell while gold, silver, stocks rallied on improved risk

• AUD/USD rallied away from the daily cloud base and above the falling 10-DMA

• A bullish outside day candle formed, RSIs are rising, techs lean slightly bullish

• US March non-mfg PMI is a risk, response may be muted due to holiday thinned market

• Pres. Trump's deadline for Iran to agree deal by Tuesday night also looms
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD range-bound in holiday-thinned Asia trading, 0.6878-0.6910

• Holding above base of 0.6869-0.7048 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Ascending 100-DMA below cloud at 0.6836, descending tenkan 0.6918 above

• 100 and 200-HMAs also in area at 0.6897 and 0.6903, respectively

• Hourly Ichimoku cloud too 0.6905-11

• Some option expiries today between 0.6835-40, at 0.6900 and 0.6925

• Hope among some for Middle East deal but others less optimistic

• Related comment , also ,
AUD/USD daily:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP heavy alongside EUR, other majors on continuing Middle East conflict

• GBP/USD 1.3178-98 in holiday thinned Tokyo-Singapore trading

• Follows 1.3240 to 1.3188 fall Friday, towards 1.3160 trough March 31

• Decisive break below 1.3100 could see further moves down towards 1.3000

• Resistance from 1.3209 hourly Ichimoku kijun, 100-HMA 1.3234

• Hourly Ichimoku cloud 1.3238-64 above, looking to descend some

• Option expiries nearby today at 1.2950, between 1.3290-1.3300, 1.3365-75

• Related comment , also ,
GBP/USD daily:


GBP/USD hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD scampers back up to 0.6897 from last close 0.6884

• Attempting to break free of Bollinger downtrend channel

• Mon close above 0.6896 will nullify existing bearish bias

• Trump sees chance of a deal to end Iran war by Mon

• But Friday's US NFP supports UST yields, thereby USD

• Australia, China, HK, US, most Europe financial markets closed Mon
AUD


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD doing little again in holiday-thinned Asian trading

• Things especially quiet with most of Europe closed for Easter Monday

• Asia range so far 1.1507-24 EBS, heavy, follows 1.1510-49 Friday

• Middle East conflict, strong US jobs report weigh

• Resistance from 1.1521 hourly Ichimoku tenkan, kijun 1.1527 above

• Descending 200-HMA which has crossed below ascending 100-HMA at 1.1536

• 100-HMA just above at 1.1539, hourly Ichimoku cloud 1.1548-68

• 1.1500 support, 1.1440-50 daily lows March 18-31, 1.1409 trough March 16

• Despite UK/European holidays, some option expiries in area today

• Some at 1.1475, between 1.1490-1.1505 and between 1.1550-70

• Massive 1.1400 E1 bln+, 1.1450 E1.5 bln expiries below

• Related comment , also , ,
EUR/USD daily:


EUR/USD hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Easter Monday holidays to continue to leave USD/JPY trading thin, quiet

• Singapore back but Australia, New Zealand, China and Hong Kong closed

• Should keep things quiet, again focus in USD/JPY to be Tokyo fix

• Both value tom/spot could see good volume, New York open later in day Monday

• USD/JPY 159.44-82 EBS so far, follows 159.44-85 range Friday

• Spot holding just above daily Ichimoku tenkan at 159.37

• In hourly chart, spot also above 159.40 200-HMA, 159.01-31 Ichimoku cloud

• News on Middle East conflict to remain focus, little change, on-going

• Japan FX intervention risk however to help cap moves to the upside

• Soggy risk mood sees JGB-US Treasury rate differentials in stasis

• Down from recent wides but could bounce, widen again, US NFP data strong

• Market still eyeing BOJ rate hike this month, also help cap USD/JPY

• Some option expiries today at 158.00, 159.00 strikes, between 159.95-160.00

• Also above between 160.85-161.05

• Related comments , , also ,

• On US Treasuries , US economy/Fed ,

• On BOJ , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Adds chart)

• AUD/USD slightly weaker following above-forecast US NFP, breakdown in U.S.-Iran mediation efforts

• Still well within the previous day's range, trading 0.6889-0.6916

• Payrolls notch their biggest increase in 15 months

• Australia observes market holidays on Good Friday and Easter Monday; other key centers also affected by holidays

• Stuck beneath the 10-DMA, AUD/USD eases below the 5-DMA in afternoon trade

• Move above 21- and 55-DMAs needed to build the case for positive momentum

• Similarly, watch out below for 100- and 200-DMAs

AUD four three 26 eod


(Burton Frierson)

The dollar firmed on Friday after a surprisingly strong U.S. non-farm payrolls report indicated resilience in the U.S. labor market, while hopes for a ceasefire in the Iran war showed no signs of coming to fruition.

U.S. non-farm payrolls grew by 178k in March, the biggest increase in 15 months and above the forecast for 60k. That marked a rebound from the drop of 133k in February, which was revised from the previously reported fall of 92k.

The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, confounding expectations that it would hold steady at 4.4%, while growth in average earnings slowed more than expected and the participation rate slipped.

The jobs data tempered lingering bets on the Fed cutting rates this year, with the market largely discounting an on-hold U.S. central bank. Current mediation efforts led by regional countries, including Pakistan, to broker a cease-fire between the United States and Iran have reached a dead end, the Wall Street Journal reported. Israeli and U.S. media reported that one U.S. crew member has been rescued after Iran shot down a warplane on Friday, as the war looked set to intensify with U.S. President Donald Trump threatening more attacks on civilian infrastructure. In fiscal matters, Trump requested a 10% cut in non-defense spending for the 2027 fiscal year and a massive $500 billion increase in the military budget, as the U.S. continues its war against Iran. A U.S. judge stood by his prior decision to block subpoenas issued in a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, setting up a likely appeal that could further delay Trump’s move to install a more compliant central bank head. Softened by the payrolls report, EUR/USD was hurt further by the Iran mediation breakdown and faces resistance at the 55- and 100-DMAs. USD/JPY was eyeing the 160 level for potential 2-way option demand amid intervention risks. GBP/USD remained in a bearish trend, and AUD/USD was softer but rangebound and still stuck below 10-DMA.

U.S. Treasury yields rose 2-5bps across maturities, led by the front end. The 2s-10s curve flattened by 0.5bps

S&P E-mini futures were down 0.28%

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.16%, USD/JPY +0.03%, GBP/USD -0.17%, AUD/USD -0.28%, DXY +0.15%, EUR/JPY -0.15%, GBP/JPY -0.19%, AUD/JPY -0.25%.(Burton Frierson)

(Corrects payrolls data in second bullet)

• AUD/USD slightly weaker following above-forecast US NFP, but still well within the previous day's range

• Payrolls grew by 178k in March vs 60k f'cast, but Feb revised down to -133k from -92k

• Holiday-thin trade an issue in the market; day's range just 0.6893-0.6916

• Australia observes market holidays on Good Friday and Easter Monday; other key centers also affected by holidays

• Dollar benefiting modestly from payrolls beat, which lifted Treasury yields

• Trading at 0.6897, AUD/USD is straddling the 5-DMA; has held below 10-DMA all day

• Overtaking 21- and 55-DMAs at 0.6998 and 0.7005 would build a case for an upward move

• Similarly, 100- and 200-DMAs at 0.6833 and 0.6686 key on the down side

• Daily RSI at 41.6934 trending lower, not oversold; weekly RSI steady to higher, monthly flat to lower

AUD midday four three two six


(Burton Frierson)

CIBC Research reviews today's US March jobs report.

"Payroll employment rebounded more than expected in March and the unemployment rate edged down, something that will, temporarily at least, ease fears regarding a weakening labor market. The 178K gain in payrolls employment was well above the consensus forecast (+65K), and was offset only very slightly by cumulative downward revisions of 7K to prior months. Health care employment rebounded sharply following a strike-impacted February, while retail trade and transportation also saw gains following declines in the prior month. Despite strong employment growth, hourly earnings were weaker than expected at 0.2% m/m and 3.5% y/y. While that's not great for households, particularly given the pressures to disposable incomes from higher pump prices, it may ease concerns at the Fed regarding broader-based inflationary pressure," CIBC notes.

"Overall though this was still clearly a better than expected report and one that justifies the current wait-and-see approach from the Fed, as it assesses how persistent the current oil price shock will be and how likely it is to spill over into other areas of inflation," CIBC adds.

• AUD/USD doing very little in holiday-constrained trade before U.S. jobs report

• Australia observes market holidays on Good Friday and Easter Monday

• Other key centers also affected by holidays

• Aussie stuck below the 10-DMA at 0.69214

• Range so far just 0.69050-0.69155, well within Thursday's 0.6860-0.6941

• U.S. jobs report at 0830 EDT the main issue on the immediate agenda

• March U.S. payrolls seen +60k vs previous -92k;

aud pre payrolls


(Burton Frierson)

• Fresh jaw-boning by Japan FinMin Katayama falling on deaf ears today

• Market quiet aside from some flows at holiday-affected Tokyo fix

• USD/JPY 159.44-66 EBS, tad better bid but essentially in stasis

• This despite Katayama promise to act decisively against FX volatility

• Katayama again also noted speculative moves in both FX and crude oil

• "To respond on all fronts" the new MOF mantra on FX action

• In other markets, Nikkei up, efforts to reopen Hormuz Strait tipped

• In JGBs, yields up to 27-year highs on inflation fears over Iran conflict

• Related comment , also

• On Katayama speak , on Nikkei , JGBs
USD/JPY hourly:


Yield on JGB 10s - daily:


Nikkei 225 daily:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR pairs will likely see even less trading in Asia during Easter holidays

• EUR/USD indicated 1.1540-41 EBS so far, market thin and little interest

• Holding smack in middle of recent 1.1409-1.1640 range established Mar 16-23

• Towards base of its 1.1537-95 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Bracketed by 1.1527 100-HMA below cloud, 1.1546 200-HMA in cloud

• Option expiries today - 1.1550 E826 mln, 1.1575 E402 mln, 1.1650-65 E642 mln

• Likely to remain heavier than not on on-going Middle East conflict

• EUR/JPY indicated 184.09 in Asia, holding above 183.32-83 daily Ichi cloud

• Also above 183.88 200-HMA, 183.40-80 hourly cloud, 183.69 100-HMA

• EUR/GBP indicated 0.8723-25, at top of its 0.8705-21 daily Ichimoku cloud

• EUR/CHF last indicated 0.9214-16 EBS, just above its 0.9212-13 hourly cloud

• Related comments , , ,

• And , also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/USD:


EUR/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Lack of any news suggesting Iran de-escalation to keep US bid during Easter

• Trading to be thin, volume low with Tokyo only major market open today

• USD/JPY 159.50-59 EBS so far, follows post-Trump address rally to 159.74

• Resistance at yesterday's high, 159.97 high Tuesday, 160.47 peak Monday

• FX intervention risk seen higher on any USD/JPY moves higher

• Support from 159.48 hourly Ichimoku tenkan, kijun 159.15 below

• Descending 100-HMA 159.32, ascending 200-HMA 159.27, cloud 158.65-159.12

• Japanese importer bids eyed towards 159.00, some exporters up top from highs

• Nothing in way of large option expiries nearby on Good Friday today

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials in stasis too? Narrowing stopped for now

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also

• US markets , , ,

• Fed-speak , ,

• On US economy , , tariffs
USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research discusses the Fed policy trajectory in the light of the Iran war and high oil prices.

"Since the start of the Iran war, market pricing for the fed funds rate has swung sharply, and markets are now pricing a roughly 45% chance that the FOMC will hike in 2026 (vs. 12% before the war). We see hikes as much less likely than this for a few reasons," GS notes

"First, the current supply shock is smaller and narrower than prior shocks that caused inflation problems....Second, the economy’s starting point makes large spillovers to broader inflation unlikely.

Third, the starting point for monetary policy makes hiking less likely...Fourth, the Fed typically does not tighten in response to oil shocks alone," GS adds.

The dollar drew haven support on Thursday from surging oil prices with President Donald Trump warning Iran to make a deal “before it is too late” after threatening further strikes on Wednesday. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned of more retaliatory strikes if there are further attacks on Iranian industries. Separately, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discussed the Middle East crisis, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also spoke with Iran on Strait of Hormuz navigation risks. OPEC+ is likely to weigh a further oil output increase when eight members meet on Sunday, two OPEC+ sources said. WTI oil pulled back from its session high near $114/bbl after Iran state media said it was drafting a monitoring protocol with Oman for traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said the economic outlook is quite uncertain though the central bank will respond with appropriate policy changes. Logan also laid out paths for the U.S. central bank to reduce the size of its balance sheet and said private-credit risks remain contained but warrant monitoring following Blue Owl’s move to cap redemptions in two retail-focused funds. In data, jobless claims fell in the latest week while a separate report showed the trade deficit widened less than forecast in February. The March jobs report is slated for Friday.

The dollar index held above its 21-day moving average, but momentum was restrained by thin holiday liquidity and muted positioning ahead of the weekend.

EUR/USD fell in risk-off trade, with a falling RSI and move below its 21-day moving average leaving bearish technical signals in place.

USD/JPY held a modest gain near the top of the 158.55–159.74 range as oil supports the dollar and geopolitics keep risks elevated, with the move above its 21-day moving average putting 160 in focus. GBP remained under pressure into the weekend amid fragile risk sentiment and ongoing geopolitical noise, with rebounds lacking conviction despite seasonally stronger tailwinds.

AUD/USD rebounded from overnight lows but downside momentum persists and falling RSIs keep the near-term bias cautious despite a potentially constructive candle. Treasury yields eased up to 2 basis point;s with the 2s-10s curve holding steady at +51.1bp.

The S&P 500 fell 0.11%. WTI rose over 10% as supply worries caused significant backwardation of the curve.

Gold fell 1.9% while copper slipped 0.9%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.43%, USD/JPY +0.53%, GBP/USD -0.61%, AUD/USD -0.29%, DXY +0.36%, EUR/JPY +0.08%, GBP/JPY -0.10%, AUD/JPY +0.19%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

• NY opened near 0.6865 after AUD/USD fell overnight on risk-off sentiment

• The pair extended the drop, hit 0.6860 then stalled, buyers then emerged

• Report that Iran & Oman are drafting a protocol for the Strait of Hormuz emerged

• Risk-on took hold; US$, US yields fell and oil eroded some gains

• USD/CNH erased much if its earlier gains while gold, silver, stocks moved upward

• AUD/USD rallied toward the 10-DMA, hit 0.6918, before pulling back a bit

• The pair neared 0.6905 late in the day and traded down only -0.32%

• Long lower wick on today's candle may worry bears but falling RSIs give comfort
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses its USD/CAD outlook and targets.

"Although we recently made a number of forecast revisions in G10 FX, for 2026, we kept our CAD profile unchanged.. We keep our USDCAD forecast at 1.38 for first half of the year, and see the pair modestly drop back to 1.36 to end the year as economic conditions in Canada improve and trade uncertainty finally fades  In general, such a profile also fits our general broader expectations for near-term USD-upside, followed by a return to modest USD depreciation in H2 and into 2027," BofA notes.

"Forecast: expect more backloaded USD/CAD depreciation in 2026 No changes. We keep our forecast at 1.38 for first half of the year and see the pair falling again to 1.36 for 2026 year-end. In muted form, such a path for CAD follows our general USD outlook, where we expect some further near-term strength, but softening in H2 and over the longer term in 2027," BofA adds.