(Changes UK GDP to Dec. in bullet 4)

• GBP$ whipsaws in Wednesday trade, +0.2% at 1.3654 in NY; NorAm range 1.3692-1.3610

• UK political angst ebbing helps support the pound amid lower BoE rate expectations

• Despite the slight rise, the USD is broadly bid after US payroll data beat to the upside

• Thursday's UK Dec and Q4 GDP, Friday's US CPI data in focus to inform on policy

• GBP$ res 1.3712 Wednesday high, 1.3733 Feb 4 daily high, 1.3831 upper 30-w Bolli

• Supt 1.3610 Wednesday low, 1.3594 daily base line, 1.3509 Feb 6 daily low

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research discusses EUR/CHF outlook.

"We expect EUR/CHF to drift lower as purchasing power parity dynamics continue to favor CHF appreciation. While CHF has risen strongly in nominal terms, it has been broadly stable in real terms since 2012, reflecting much lower Swiss inflation relative to the euro area. The SNB's intervention history suggests it responds to inflation risks rather than defending specific exchange rate levels," MS notes.

"Unlike 2020 (when core inflation was negative and EUR/CHF was cheap) today CHF appreciation is consistent with price stability, and EUR/CHF is rich versus PPP. As a result, intervention risks appear low and skewed toward volatility smoothing. Relative safe-haven demand may further support CHF," MS adds.

• under pressure into Europe close, -3.6% at 66.1k; Wednesday range 69.3k-65.7k

• Above f/c US payroll data keeps Fed on steady tack for 2-25bp cuts in 2026

• Cryptos crumble, bitcoin falls through $66,000, as Friday's bounce fades- CoinDesk

• Precious metals retain bid; gold +1%, silver +4% amid fiscal, geopolitical angst

• BTC supt 65.7k Wednesday low, 62.6k falling lower 30-d Bolli, 60k - 2026 low, Feb 6

• Res 69.3k Wednesday high, 70.6k falling 10-DMA, 72.2k daily high Feb 9
BTC Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Credit Agricole CIB Research sees a scope for the USD to consolidate in the near-term.

"Assuming that the US labour market will continue to stabilise from here, we remain of the view that the US rates markets are pricing in overly aggressive FOMC easing ahead," CACIB notes.

"With c.60bp of rate cuts priced in for this year at the time of writing, however, a lot of Fed-related negatives are already in the price of the USD, in our view. Positive data surprises could thus have greater FX market impact than any disappointments and we expect the USD to consolidate," CACIB adds.

(Updates)

• Shares of silver miners rise, tracking gains in the white metal's prices [GOL/]

• Spot silver rises 5.1% to $84.84 per ounce

• Prices rise after strong U.S. employment report indicates the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged for some time

• Hecla Mining up 1.5%

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver up 1%, Silvercorp Metals advances 3.5%

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust ETF both up ~4%
(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

Goldman Sachs Research reviews the US January CPI print on Friday.

"We expect a 0.33% increase in January core CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.52% (vs. +2.5% consensus)," GS notes.

"We expect a 0.24% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), reflecting higher food (+0.45%) but lower energy (-1.3%) prices. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.31% increase in core PCE in January," GS adds. 

CIBC discusses its reaction to today's January NFP print.

"Clearly, the rumor mill was churning out fiction. The January jobs numbers were anything but soft, with job gains coming in at 130K, far above consensus estimates of 65K, and private job gains were a very healthy 172K. The main driver was a surge in healthcare and construction hiring in the month. Net revisions over the prior two months were -17K, putting the three-month average payroll gain at 73K in January," CIBC notes.

"The signal from this data is clear: this is evidence in favor of the job market stabilizing and supports the Fed’s wait-and-see approach. We’re pushing back the timing of our Fed call, and now expect the first cut in June, but continue to pencil in two cuts for the year," CIBC adds.

• Traders are holding a massive wager that the euro rises

• The yen which fell toward its all-time low has been heavily sold

• EUR/JPY which traded to 186.87 record high has broken supports in Feb

• Pair has dropped below 55-DMA at 183.31 and cloud top at 183.02

• Feb 111 low is 182.24, cloud base is 180.33, 100-DMA is 180.46

• Ichimoku (Japanese chart system) has more influence for yen pairs

•
EURJPY


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of silver miners rise premarket, tracking gains in the white metal's prices [GOL/]

• Spot silver rises 5.1% to $84.90 per ounce

• Prices buoyed by a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields, while investors await key U.S. jobs data later in the day for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook

• Hecla Mining up 3.7%; Coeur Mining up 3.3%

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver and Silvercorp Metals both up 3.3%

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust ETF both up ~5%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

• Reserve Bank of Australia signalled hawkish policy again

• Australian dollar has hit three-year peak on rate-hike bets

• AUD/USD has seen a 0.7071 to 0.7127 rise, on Wednesday, according to LSEG data

• The fourteen-day momentum reading has been positive, reinforcing the bullish market

• AUD/USD's bullish cycle should persist to eventually test the 0.7200 psychological level

Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Sterling firmer vs EUR and USD: political uncertainty relaxes its grip

• UK PM Starmer pledges to never walk away from his job

• Labour's leader in Scotland called on Starmer to quit

• A cloud still hangs over the Prime Minister

• Strong yen gains versus sterling just slowing cable's climb

• Diverging BoE-BOJ expectations, Starmer political woes, Takaichi win weigh

• GBP/USD cancels out Tues 1.3695-1.3639 drop: Mon 1.3700 high the resistance

• Support at the 20-day moving average, 1.3611 and key at 1.3509, Feb 6 low
GBP/USD Daily Chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Yen jumps on bets for 'fiscally responsible' Japan

• USD/JPY weakness persists. Down from 154.51 to 152.80, Wednesday, EBS data shows

• A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the USD/JPY chart, market has been negative since

• A large black candle on Monday completely engulfs a smaller white candle from Friday

• Tuesday's close under the daily cloud, which spans 154.72-156.24, is a bearish development

•
Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Traders are betting $24 billion on the euro rising (CFTC)

• The net long is one of the largest on record

• Large speculative positions often precede reversals

• Eventually traders long euros must sell

• Large bet contributing to the struggle to overcome 1.20

• The extreme will to gamble is cause for concern

•
EURUSD and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/SGD decline extends to 1.2624, surpassing Tuesday low

• Looks set to confirm bearish bias in downtrend channel

• Wed close below 1.2644 may spur more near-term USD selling

• Psych barrier 1.2600 may break, exposing channel floor 1.2555

• Another wave of USD selling hits, spurred by Japan's yen

• USD/JPY falls as low as 153.00, threatening that watermark
SGD


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Australia's St Barbara rise as much as 11.6% to A$0.797, hitting their biggest intraday pct gain in over a month

• Stock touches highest level since January 29, 2026

• Gold miner says completion of both Lingbao and Kumul transactions are being targeted for March 31, 2026

• In December, Lingbao Gold agreed to pay A$370 million ($263.63 million) to acquire 50% of co's unit, St Barbara Mining

• Moreover, Kumul Mineral Holdings also agreed to acquire 20% of co's Simberi Gold Project in Papua New Guinea for A$100 million

• SBM up 35.8% YTD, including session's moves

($1 = 1.4035 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD +0.6% Wed after hawkish comments from RBA, breaks above 0.7100

• Hauser says RBA will do whatever is necessary achieve inflation target

• AUD rally will re-accelerate on break above 0.7158 resistance zone

• CN Jan CPI +0.2% y/y (poll +0.4%), PPI -1.4% (poll -1.5%)

• U.S. Jan non-farm payrolls due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +70k

• U.S. Jan unemployment also due Wed, jobless claims Thur & CPI Fri

• RBA Governor Bullock appearing before Senate Economics Committee Thur

• Range Asia 0.70705-0.7125, support 0.6900 0.6660, resistance 0.7158
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY off some more in Asia, through 154.00 to 153.84 EBS

• Next support eyed at 153.00 and 152.89 low January 30

• Low January 30 on way up from 152.10 on January 27 after Fed rate checks

• Resistance at ascending 100-DMA at 154.56 now confirmed

• Also still ascending daily Ichimoku cloud 154.71-156.24 just above

• Related comments , , , also
USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/KRW bogged down by USD/JPY, slips to 1455.7; KOSPI +0.65

• Tues break of 21 DMA 1457.1 adds weight but next supports nearby

• Thin Ichimoku cloud spanning 1452-1456 currently being tested

• Closing beloow 23.6% Fibo support 1452.4 will skew it lower still

• S. Korea PM on Tues voiced concerns over weak KRW

• S. Korea February 1-10 exports +44.4% y/y
KRW


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY continued to push lower overnight, falls below its Ichimoku cloud

• USD/JPY down to 154.06 EBS yesterday, Asia so far today 154.36-51

• Still ascending daily Ichimoku cloud 154.71-156.24 now above, resistance

• Spot also fell below ascending 100-DMA today at 154.57, pivot or resistance?

• Support still eyed in 154.00-10 window, Tokyo holiday but importer bids?

• No supports below till 153.00, 152.89 low January 30 on way up to 157.95

• Some option expiries today (NY cut) - 153.95-154.05, 156.00, 156.50

• Lower US yields sends JGB-US Treasury rate differentials lower again

• Differential on 2s narrowed to @217 bps, in 10s to @194 bps

• More USD/JPY downside possible on narrower rate differentials

• Katayama plan to maybe use foreign reserves to fund govt policies too

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also

• US markets , , ,

• Fed-speak , ,

• On US economy , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD softens but remains +0.35% week-to-date on broader USD weakness

• U.S. retail sales data missed expectations, Dec flat & Nov revised lower

• RBNZ OCR decision due Feb 18, forward guidance pivotal for NZD trajectory

• NZD upswing intact but faltering, Jul 1 0.6120 high remains topside target

• Busy U.S. data calendar, Jan non-farm payrolls due Wed, Reuters poll +70k

• U.S. Jan unemployment also published Wed, jobless claims Thur & CPI Fri

• Range NZ 0.60395-50, support 0.5870 0.5730 0.5580, resistance 0.6120
NZD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Morgan Stanley Research previews the US January jobs report on Wednesday.

"Our forecast for 55k in headline payrolls and 90k in private payrolls reflects stabilization in underlying private payrolls growth, a temporary boost from industries where holiday hiring was weak, and a further drag from deferred resignations of federal government employees," MS notes.

"We estimate that average hourly earnings rose by 0.2%M, held back partially by the shift back toward lower-wage industry payrolls, with the year-on-year pace slowing by 0.2pp to 3.6%. The unemployment rate is at a 'low' 4.4%, after 4.375% in December," MS adds.

• AUD/USD -0.2% late Tue, but remains elevated amid lethargic U.S. data

• U.S. retail sales data missed expectations, Dec flat & Nov revised lower

• RBA Deputy Governor Hauser fireside chat at Chamber of Commerce 0230 GMT

• U.S. Jan non-farm payrolls due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +70k

• U.S. Jan unemployment also due Wed, jobless claims Thur & CPI Fri

• RBA Governor Bullock appearing before Senate Economics Committee Thur

• AUD rally will re-accelerate on break above 0.7158 resistance zone

• Overnight range 0.7065-90, support 0.6965 0.6900 0.6660, resistance 0.7158
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Eikon search string for individual stock moves: [STXBZ]

• The Day Ahead newsletter: Click here

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The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were muted on Tuesday while the Dow notched a fresh record high as investors digested corporate earnings and retail sales figures that kicked off a slew of economic datasets due to be released through the week. [.N] At 13:30 EST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.12% at 50,194.84.The S&P 500 was down 0.13% at 6,955.53, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.27% at 23,176.86.

The top three S&P 500 percentage gainers:

• Datadog Inc , up 14.3%

• Masco Corp , up 8.3%

• Marriott International Inc , up 8.1%

The top three S&P 500 percentage losers:

• Charles Schwab Corp , down 9.1%

• Raymond James Financial Inc , down 8.5%

• S&P Global Inc , down 7.8%

The top three NYSE percentage gainers:

• Evommune Inc , up 67.9%

• Haverty Furniture Companies Inc , up 24.6%

• Vestis Corp , up 20.2%

The top three NYSE percentage losers:

• Jumia Technologies AG , down 17.6%

• agilon health inc , down 13.0%

• Amentum Holdings Inc , down 12.4%

The top three Nasdaq percentage gainers:

• Quince Therapeutics Inc , up 198.5%

• Jiuzi Holdings Inc , up 67.6%

• Founder Group Ltd , up 52.5%

The top three Nasdaq percentage losers:

• Lianhe Sowell International Group Ltd , down 68.6%

• MDJM Ltd , down 67.0%

• Autozi Internet Technology (Global) Ltd , down 59.8%

• Regenxbio Inc : BUZZ - Drops after FDA rejects gene therapy for rare disease

• Fluence Energy Inc : BUZZ - Rises as Jefferies upgrades to 'buy' on demand recovery

• Coca-Cola Co : BUZZ - Shares fall about 2% after Q4 revenue miss

• Upwork Inc : BUZZ - Tumbles after Q1 outlook disappoints

• Becton Dickinson and Co : BUZZ - Falls after lowering profit forecast

• FTAI Aviation Ltd : BUZZ - Jefferies raises FTAI Aviation PT as power business gains momentum

• Hecla Mining Co :

• Coeur Mining Inc :

• Endeavour Silver Corp :

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF :

BUZZ - Silver miners fall as increased risk appetite lifts global equities

• Spotify Inc : BUZZ - Jumps after upbeat profit forecast

• DuPont De Nemours Inc : BUZZ - Jumps after upbeat profit forecast

• Under Armour Inc : BUZZ - Falls after Citigroup downgrades to 'sell'

• Willis Tower Watson PLC : BUZZ - U.S. insurance brokers steady after slumping on AI disruption risks

• Hims & Hers Health Inc : BUZZ - Falls after Novo Nordisk sues co for patent infringement

• Oscar Health Inc : BUZZ - Shares fall on Q4 revenue miss

• Dakota Gold Corp : BUZZ - Slides on $75 mln stock sale

• Personalis Inc : BUZZ - Rises as Medicare extends coverage to lung cancer test

• FedEx Corp : BUZZ - Barclays raises FedEx PT on AI-fueled growth expectation

• Hasbro Inc : BUZZ - Rises after Q4 revenue beat

• Wingstop Inc : BUZZ - Shares dip as at least two brokerages downgrade stock

• Tectonic Therapeutic Inc : BUZZ - Shares plunge as AstraZeneca scraps rival relaxin drug

• Harley-Davidson Inc : BUZZ - Falls as Q4 loss widens

• Nektar Therapeutics Inc : BUZZ - Rises as eczema drug shows year-long benefit

• Vistra Corp : BUZZ - Gains as Jefferies upgrades to 'buy'

• Caterpillar Inc : BUZZ - BofA lifts Caterpillar PT on broadening turbine demand **Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings Inc : BUZZ -Up on $6.2 bln go-private deal

• Quest Diagnostics Inc : BUZZ - Hits record high after upbeat 2026 forecast

• Polyrizon Ltd : BUZZ - Climbs on deal to buy 51% of air ambulance operator

• RingCentral Inc : BUZZ - Rises ahead of joining S&P SmallCap index

• CVS Health Corp : BUZZ - Rises after quarterly earnings beat estimates

• General Motors Co : BUZZ - Benchmark raises General Motors PT to reflect stronger 2025 execution

• LATAM Airlines Group Inc : BUZZ - Slips on pricing $743 mln secondary offering

• Incyte Corp : BUZZ - Falls after downbeat annual revenue forecast

• Jacobs Solutions Inc : BUZZ - Secures seat on US Missile Defense Agency contract; shares rise

• Masco Corp : BUZZ - Up after quarterly profit beat

• Evommune Inc : BUZZ - Soars after eczema therapy shows promise in mid-stage trial

• On Semiconductor Corp : BUZZ - Slides after quarterly revenue miss; weak Q1 forecast

• Wesco International Inc : BUZZ - Falls after forecasting profit below estimates

• Williams Companies Inc : BUZZ - Rises to record high after lifting 2026 profit foreacst

• Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc : BUZZ - Rises after Q4 earnings beat

• Datadog Inc : BUZZ - Climbs after Q4 results beat

• Hoth Therapeutics Inc : BUZZ - Rises as early obesity-drug data in mice shows promise

• Rio Tinto PLC :

• Southern Copper Corp :

• Freeport-McMoRan Inc :

• Teck Resources Ltd :

BUZZ - Copper miners fall on rising inventories [Copper miners fall on rising inventories]

• Ecolab Inc : BUZZ - Gains on upbeat full-year forecast

• Microchip Technology Inc : BUZZ - Rebounds after boosted $800 mln convertible bonds sale

• Marriott International Inc : BUZZ - Stock hits record high after Q4 revenue beat

• Warner Bros Discovery Inc : BUZZ - Rises after Paramount sweetens bid

• Target Corp : BUZZ - Dips after leadership shake-up​

• Mattel Inc : BUZZ - Rises heading into report as investors eye entertainment strategy

• Charles Schwab Corp :

• Stifel Financial Corp :

• Raymond James Financial Inc :

• Interactive Brokers Group Inc : BUZZ - US brokerages slide after Altruist launches AI tax planner

Index RIC Index name Percent

change %

S&P 500 -0.13

S&P 500 Information Technology -0.2

S&P 500 Utilities 1.67

S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary 0.6

S&P 500 Materials 1.09

S&P 500 Industrials 0.34

S&P 500 Communication Services -0.58

(Sector)

S&P 500 Financials -1.12

S&P 500 Real Estate 1.16

S&P 500 Health Care -0.07

S&P 500 Consumer Staples -0.42

S&P 500 Energy -0.15

(Rajarshi Roy and Varun Sahay in Bengaluru)

ANZ Research previews next week's RBNZ February meeting.

"We expect no change in the OCR, leaving it at 2.25% on Wednesday 18 February, accompanied by a higher OCR track that suggests that a rate hike towards the end of the year is seen as a likelihood,"ANZ notes.

"On the day, we suspect the RBNZ would be happy with no market reaction at all; market pricing looks rational. On balance, we don’t expect that the RBNZ’s OCR track will be as hawkish as current OIS pricing, but only a small lift in the track is required to suggest a hike this year is probable. That would probably be enough to broadly satisfy a market that is likely to expect the RBNZ to keep its options open," ANZ adds.