• Shares of Liberty Gold Corp down 6.5% to C$1.09

• Co says it will sell its copper-gallium-germanium Gage Project in Utah to Blue Moon Metals

• Co says it will receive Blue Moon shares worth about $2 million and a net smelter return royalty with a pre-production buyback option, excluding SITLA land

• Co says it expects the deal to close in the next 30 days

• LGD stock was pressured by a 2.6% fall in gold prices

• Including session's move, LGD up 32.5% YTD

(Reporting by Varun Sahay in Bengaluru)

CIBC Research reacts to today's March BoC policy decision.

"Harry Truman famously asked for a one-handed economist, but the Bank of Canada had good reason to deliver an “on the one hand, on the other hand” announcement today," CIBC notes.

"Its decision to as it keep interest rates unchanged came as no surprise to markets given the cross currents of a weak labour market, decelerating core inflation, but the threat of an energy shock to inflation ahead.

The Bank still expects modest growth ahead, but weaker than it had previously expected in the near term, with “risks to growth tilted to the downside” but, on the other hand, with inflation risks having gone up due to the war," CIBC adds.

Sterling is likely to remain consolidative, highly sensitive to central bank rhetoric and shifting geopolitical risks in the coming days, as traders brace for the Fed, the BoE, and other policy decisions.

Cable has recovered recently amid a broader risk rally, showing resilience even as Middle East tensions linger. This uptick is largely fueled by broad USD selling ahead of today’s Fed rate decision—a widely expected hold—as investors temper recent haven-related dollar buying due to policy uncertainty surrounding the Fed and, later this week, the Bank of England.

The ongoing conflict has shifted global rate expectations toward a more hawkish tack for both central banks. According to LSEG’s IRPR, the Fed is now seen cutting only once in 2026, while UK STIR futures are pricing in high odds for a 25bp BoE rate hike in Q4 2026. While these elevated rate paths theoretically support GBP/USD, the currency remains dogged by a rise in long-end UK gilt yields, and inflation and growth uncertainties which have exacerbated underlying fiscal concerns.

Technically, GBP/USD is navigating a neutral-to-bearish landscape. Immediate resistance is pegged at 1.3374, today's early Europe session high, and more significantly 1.3438 the 200-DMA which has capped trading since early-March. On the downside, firm support sits at big-figure psychological support by 1.33 and 1.3274 the March 17 low.

With the spot price currently below the Ichimoku Cloud base line at 1.3523, the path of least resistance remains tilted toward consolidation awaiting further rate and growth guidance from the BoE.
GBP Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research previews the March FOMC and BoJ meeting and notes on days where the 2 central banks meeting take place, USD/JPY often ends the day higher. 

"Ahead of its March FOMC policy meeting, investors will be keen to know how escalating geopolitical risks have impacted the Fed’s policy outlook given that they should impact both the growth and inflation components of its dual mandate. To start with, we expect policy rates to remain unchanged and further think that the latest oil price rally may have reduced the scale of dovish dissent at the FOMC," CACIB notes.

"The BoJ is widely expected to keep rates on hold on Thursday leaving investors focused on Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference as well as the risk of FX intervention.

Indeed, the back-to-back events of the Fed and BoJ have over the past year often led to a higher USD/JPY as the Fed has disappointed doves and the BoJ disappointed hawks. The exchange rate is already challenging the historically and technically important 160 level," CACIB adds.

Bank of America Global Research discusses teh USD outlook around today's FOMC March meeting.

"Wednesday's FOMC is unlikely to be a pivotal event for the USD. No expected policy changes are on the horizon, and geopolitically-driven uncertainty is rising by the day, keeping the USD supported. The overall messaging and tone from Chair Powell will likely underscore these increased uncertainties, while any revealed bias on the inflation or growth risks will likely be quickly digested by the FX market," BofA notes.

"For now, the USD market should remain primarily headline-driven, with oil markets setting the pace. As long as current events keep upward pressure on oil, USD upside risks will remain, particularly against those currencies more vulnerable to a terms-of-trade shock (EUR, GBP, JPY, SEK, NZD, CHF). Any USD upside vs those more insulated (AUD, CAD, NOK) will be driven by overall market risk sentiment," BofA adds.

• AUD/USD rallied to a 4-session high overnight, 0.7124 traded in Europe

• USD/CNH drops, softer US yields & US$ dollar helped lift the pair

• Sellers emerged however as the US$ then firmed up while gold & silver fell

• All gains were erased, pair neared flat into NY's open, sat near 0.7105 early

• Investors are awaiting key risks from the Fed and US econ data

• Daily RSI diverged, daily gravestone doji formed; may be concerns for bulls

• Fed decision, summary of econ projections, Powell's presser are risks

• Us Feb. PPI & Jan. factory orders are data risks in NY's morning
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

March 18 (Reuters) - Two straight daily gains have weakened the EUR/USD's broader bear trend, but resistance is slowing the rebound from 1.1409 and could yet trigger a fresh move lower.

Four consecutive bearish closes last week helped set up a corrective bounce on Monday and Tuesday, and that recovery may still extend. For a more convincing reversal, however, the euro needs to close above the 10-day moving average, now at 1.1554 on EBS. That average has capped EUR/USD since the March 2 breakdown.

Further resistance sits at 1.1568, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.2084-1.1409 slide from January 27 to March 16. An April 6 Ichimoku cloud twist at 1.1821-28 also points to adjustment risk. Cloud twists can act as price magnets and, when combined with an overstretched trend, may warn of a shift in direction.

The daily outlook could also change if the 100-day moving average slips below the 200-day average, a classic bearish signal. Both are currently flattening, which would lessen the impact of such a crossover. Still, the last long-term crossover, a bullish one in May 2025, preceded a rally from 1.1281 to 1.2084.

The weekly chart is more constructive. EUR/USD has rebounded from 1.1409 to 1.1549 and moved above the weekly Ichimoku cloud top. A weekly close above the cloud, between 1.1022 and 1.1502, would strengthen the reversal case. For now, the recovery remains fragile below key resistance.
EUR/USD daily chart:


EUR/USD weekly chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Alison Williams)

• USD/JPY peaked at 159.75 on Friday, highest since Japan's July 2024 intervention

• It has subsequently relapsed to hit a 158.57 low, on Wednesday, EBS data shows

• Dollar has slipped versus the yen, away from levels where traders had braced for intervention

• The fall is ahead of a meeting in Washington between President Trump and PM Takaichi

• Japan PM set to discuss investment, tariffs with Trump

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

• Fed is likely to hold rates steady, on Wednesday as the Iran war shocks policy debate

• BOJ is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at 0.75% on Thursday

Correlation Chart


Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Daily Chart (Intervention)


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD has risen 1.1409-1.1549 EBS this week

• This has alleviated an oversold situation

• Target to correct drop following Iran war is 1.1565

• The influential 200 and 100-DMAs are 1.1678 and 1.1691

• Traders only pared 1/4 of $20bln long positions after war

• Oil is $32/bbl higher since conflict weighing EUR/USD

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable rises to 1.3374 as risk-sensitive pound benefits from equity gains

• Nikkei up 2.87%. 1.3374 is the highest level since March 12

• Offers likely near 1.34 (1.3402 = 100DMA). 1.3339 (Monday top) is a support point

• Fed rate hold expected at 1800 GMT; Powell briefing starts at 1830 GMT

• Times Shadow MPC votes 8-1 for BoE rate hold Thursday; dissenter wants hike

• BBC-Angela Rayner says Labour is running out of time to deliver change

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY more on back foot in Asia afternoon trading

• Down to 158.65 EBS from 159.07 high into Tokyo fix

• Pivoting around ascending 200-HMA at 158.70

• 158.57 low March 12, 158.50 daily Ichimoku tenkan in spec sights

• That said, total $1.9 bln in option expiries today between 158.40-60

• Likely supportive on gamma, on 159.00-05 $1.3 bln options to cap?

• Flows likely light into FOMC policy announcement tonight, BOJ tom

• Related comment , on BOJ , also
USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY in lower range on less bid USD, likely inside day in crude futures

• Markets also hunkering down for central bank announcements

• Fed tonight, likely on hold, BOJ tomorrow, likely on hold too

• Middle East conflict could throw spanner into economic/price outlooks

• USD/JPY 158.80-159.14 EBS, back below 159.21-30 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Support from ascending 200-HMA at 158.67, 100-HMA 159.22 above in cloud

• Massive $1.9 bln option expiries today between 158.40-60 also supportive

• Upside likely capped by 159.00-05 $1.3 bln, 159.50 $1.1 bln expiries

• EUR/JPY 183.33-56 EBS, on hold near base of 183.50-184.01 daily Ichi cloud

• Underlining support at ascending 100-DMA at 182.31

• GBP/JPY 212.06-49, above tapering daily Ichimoku cloud between 210.13-211.55

• Also above 200/100-HMAs at 211.86/211.92, 211.65-80 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• AUD/JPY 113.21 to 112.74 but still on higher plane, 113.98 high March 11

• Above its 200/100-HMAs at 112.38/49, 112.19-44 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Related comments , , also

• on Japan economy , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD +1.9% wtd as 2026 rally continues to build momentum post-RBA hike

• Market currently sees probability of yet another hike in May nearing 50%

• FOMC meeting outcome Wed, expected to leave FFR unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

• U.S.-Iran war rages on, underwrites oil supply anxiety and inflation fears

• AU Feb employment data due Thur, poll +20.0k jobs, 4.1% unemployment

• Range Asia 0.71035-189, support 0.6944 0.6900, resistance 0.7250 0.7282
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD consolidates below 1.3370-80 resistance after closing up 0.25% Tue

• Boosted by resilient risk appetite on hopes Iran war will end quickly

• Investors look past implications of higher oil on inflation, global economy

• Fed rate decision Wed; its view on economic impact of Iran conflict awaited

• BoE rate decision Thu, c.bank to play for time as war brings inflation heat

• Major brokerages drop BoE March rate-cut call as inflation risks rise

• More resistance at 1.3415-20, support 1.3335-40. 1.3300-10, 1.3270-75

• Tuesday range 1.3274-1.3364, Asia range 1.3351-1.33635
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Australia's Manhattan Gold Corporation fall as much as 10.7% to A$0.025, hitting their biggest intraday pct drop since November 18, 2025

• Stock touches its lowest level since March 6

• The mineral explorer says it raises A$3 million ($2.13 million) through placement

• Offer price of A$0.024 per share represents 14.3% discount, as of firm's last close

• Says placement funds used to support drilling at its Hook Lake High Grade Gold and Polymetallic Project in Canada

• Stock down 7.1% YTD, including day's moves

($1 = 1.4061 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• Some USD longs pared with US yields off, crude oil futures relatively steady

• NYMEX crude oil futures look to have steadied sub-$100/brl, Brent $100/brl+

• USD/JPY 158.89-99 EBS so far in Asia, awaiting central bank announcements

• Some longs look to have booked profits on 159, high Friday-Monday 159.72-75

• Possible FX intervention too, BOJ hike-FX action double whammy?

• Likelihood small with BOJ seen on hold tomorrow but possibility not zero

• Technically, USD/JPY now between 200 and 100-HMAs at 158.66 and 159.22

• Hourly Ichimoku cloud 159.19-30 above as well, kijun 159.11 ahead

• Plenty of nearby option expiries today, some massive, from 158.00-160.50

• Include 158.40-60 total $1.9 bln, 159.00-05 $1.3 bln, 159.50 $1.1 bln

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials narrowing again, well off recent peaks

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Fed , US economy ,
USD/JPY:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries this week:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD +1.4% from Tue 0.57805 low, recovering from cross related rout

• RBA hike Tue triggered stop loss AUD/NZD buying, 1.2149 highest since 2013

• Softening DXY ahead of Wed's FOMC meeting outcome providing NZD uplift

• NZD post-Jan downswing intact, break below 0.5710 would confirm bigger trend

• Oil prices remain high amid ongoing supply fears as U.S.-Iran war continues

• NZ Q4 current account 5.98 bln deficit, Reuters poll consensus -5.05 bln

• Range NZ 0.58559-685, support 0.5710 0.5580, resistance 0.6092 0.6120
AUD/NZD Monthly


NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

SocGen Research likes long AUD vs GBP and CAD and looks to add to short AUD/CAD position on a spike into 0.98.

"The RBA raised rates by 25bp today, in a split decision (3-2) that hasn’t done anything to dissuade the market from thinking there’s a good chance of a further move at the next meeting, on May 5. The market prices a widening short-term rate gap relative to the UK, even if yield differentials have narrowed recently, and GBP/AUD shorts are still probably the best way to reflect a bullish AUD view," SocGen notes.

"AUD/USD is undermined by the two countries’ relative oil importer/exporter status and a long period with oil price this high (above USD 100p/b) would see AUD/USD fall.

AUD/CAD meanwhile, has lost 0.1% since the conflict started, but if we saw the pair reach 0.98, making a new multi-year high, that would represent another opportunity to go short," SocGen adds.

• AUD/USD +1.0% from Tue 0.7050 low as USD index extends 2-days of losses

• Bullock says RBA board all agreed tightening needed, but debated timing

• U.S.-Iran war continues, Trump delivers churlish messaging to NATO/allies

• Oil prices remain elevated amid ongoing supply concerns, Brent futures +3.3%

• DXY -0.9% wtd, FOMC announcement Wed with no change to FFR target expected

• AU Feb employment data due Thur, Reuters poll consensus 4.1% unemployment

• Overnight range 0.70605-0.7118, support 0.6944 0.6900, resistance 0.7282
AUD Daily 55-DMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP$ holds slight gain in NY afternoon, +0.25% at 1.3351; NorAm range 1.3364-1.3312

• Pair shrugs off higher oil, falling UK gilt yields amid broad USD selloff pre-Fed

• Mideast tensions remain elevated; USD soft ahead of slew of DM c.bank decisions

• Fed seen steady on Wednesday, BoE steady on Thursday; pressers in focus for guidance

• Despite rate meeting, focus remains primarily on Mideast conflict; oil flow thru Hormuz

• GBP$ res 1.3366 flat 10-DMA, 1.3399 100-DMA, 1.3439 the bruised 200-DMA

• Supt 1.3312 Tuesday NY low, 1.3300 psychological level, 1.3220 daily low Mar 13

Sterling Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7085 after 0.7050 traded overnight, rally extended in NY

• An early dip toward 0.7075 met buyers as US yields , US$ slumped

• Equity gains, USD/CNH drop toward 6.8810 added buoyancy to AUD/USD

• AUD/USD hit 0.7118 and sat nearby late in the day, was up +0.60% in NY's afternoon

• Rising daily RSI, move above 10- & 21-DMAs give daily techs a bullish lean

• Fed decision Wed., rate expected to remain unchanged, Powell's presser in focus
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research previews the March FOMC policy meeting and the USD outlook.

"Ahead of its March policy meeting, investors will be keen to know how escalating geopolitical risks have impacted the Fed’s policy outlook given that they should impact both sides of its dual mandate. To start with, we expect policy rates to remain unchanged and further think that the latest oil price rally may have reduced the scale of dovish dissent at the FOMC," CACIB notes.

"Turning to the FX market outlook, we continue to think that the ‘USD smile’ – that links the USD performance to the levels of US rates and risk aversion – should remain the main FX market template in the near-term. The USD should remain the G10 high-yielding, safe-haven currency of choice and thus could benefit from any potential further escalation of geopolitical risks and/or further paring back of dovish market Fed bets this week," CACIB adds.

• Cable bounce running out of steam as 200-hour MAs (1.3340/52) cap

• With no clear-descalation path, low conviction on the topside will likely persist

• Until geo noise fades, backdrop will continue to favour USD

• Consequently, reprieves in cable are likely to remain a fleeting one

• Central bank risk also keeping traders sidelined with Fed-BoE due Wed-Thu

• BoE f/c to hold but rhetoric matters - strong hawkish lean may be GBP negative

• Meanwhile, EUR/GBP finding support can also act as a lid on the upside for cable
gbpusd hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Morgan Stanley Research previews the March ECB policy meeting on Thursday.

"We expect the ECB to remain on hold. The statement will likely reference the exceptionally high uncertainty but will remain broadly unchanged," MS notes.

"The press conference will be in focus, with President Lagarde likely reiterating that the ECB is coming from a good starting point and ready to act if needed. Updated projections will likely show inflation above target in 2026 but below in 2027," MS adds.