The dollar rose broadly on Thursday, supported by a risk-off tone stemming from Iran nuclear talks, weakness in tech shares after Nvidia’s earnings, and concerns over a rift between Anthropic and the Pentagon. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury warned it may cut MBaer Merchant Bank AG off from the U.S. financial system, saying the Swiss lender had aided illicit actors. WTI crude relinquished gains in the New York afernoon after Oman’s foreign minister reported significant progress in U.S.–Iran talks. A modest bump in weekly jobless claim suggested the U.S. labor market remained in a low-hire, low-fire state. The ECB trimmed its dollar holdings early last year, reducing the U.S. currency's share in its FX reserves as part of routine portfolio rebalancing.

The dollar index continues to consolidate as its 55-day moving average near 98.00.

EUR/USD slid toward its 55-DMA at 1.1773 and 61.8% Fib of the 1.1572–1.2084 rise, with declining RSIs and a daily inverted hammer reinforcing the bearish tone.

AUD/USD slipped as metals and equities weakened and the dollar strengthened, leaving a daily inverted hammer with RSI divergence, while monthly signals still suggest only limited pullbacks. GBP/USD tumbled toward its 200-day moving average at 1.3447, with the pound underperforming other G10 peers as risk tone softened, as U.K. political uncertainty amid a local vote and a less-hawkish Bank of England path weighed.

USD/JPY held firm before Tokyo CPI on Friday as haven demand and month-end flows lifted the dollar, holding it above 155.60 support and a bullish 21-/100-DMA crossover near 155.

Treasury yields were down about 2 basis points across the curve leaving the 2s-10s curve unchanged at +57.9bp.

The S&P 500 fell 0.82%.

Gold was marginally higher while silver fell 2.2% and copper dropped 0.66%

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.23%, USD/JPY -0.01%, GBP/USD -0.65%, AUD/USD -0.36%, DXY +0.22%, EUR/JPY -0.18%, GBP/JPY -0.67%, AUD/JPY -0.36%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

ANZ Research discusses BoJ policy trajectory.

"There is much to consider in Japan’s economic outlook. However, in coming months we expect domestic economic conditions will be consistent with gradual disinflation through 2026. Headline Consumer Price Index inflation was 1.5% y/y in January, and we forecast it will average 1.7% this year. We expect core inflation (2.4% y/y) will come down gradually, closer to 2.0%. We are of the view that the BoJ needs to proceed cautiously with respect to further tightening," ANZ notes.

"We forecast only one more 25bp rate rise this year, as Japan gradually moves away from the zero lower bound, taking the policy rate to 1.0%," ANZ adds.

• NY opened near 0.7110 after 0.7135 traded overnight, pair lifted early

• 0.7122 traded but bulls ran out of gas, sellers then emerged as risk soured

• Gold , silver , copper & stocks traded lower

• Those helped rally US$ as did USD/CNH nearing flat after making a 35-month low

• AUD/USD hit 0.7067 then neared 0.7075 late, was down -0.68% in NY's afternoon

• Daily inverted hammer formed, daily RSI diverged on the 10-session high hit earlier

• Monthly techs lean bullish so corrective pull backs may be limited in scope
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs discusses the latest IMM report on Gold positioning.

"Per the latest Commitment of Traders, Gold Managed Money positioning started to recover from the long-term impairment suffered in late January/early February. Specifically, Gold Managed Money net purchased +$1.4bn from February 10th - 17th, ending a 3 week streak of selling which totaled -$22.9bn. Buying seemingly persisted in the subsequent 5 sessions," GS notes,

"Elevated stagflation risks, following the US Administration's response to the Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA and a potential Middle East conflict, provided support. That said, bulls are trading very tactically; some profit taking ensued on the eve of US-Iran negotiations," GS adds.

(Repeat with no changes)

Feb 26 (Reuters) -

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/15.00 GMT on Thursday February 26

• EUR/USD: 1.1700 (1.1BLN), 1.1750 (651M), 1.1765 (566M), 1.1785-90 (858M)

• 1.1795-00 (3.52BLN), 1.1810-15 (1.3BLN), 1.1820-30 (3.1BLN)

• 1.1835-40 (586M), 1.1865-75 (1.41BLN)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses AUD outlook. 

"Strong carry trade demand has boosted the AUD as it moved to the top of the G10 yield league table, with falling US trade policy uncertainty and lower FX volatility increasing the appeal of carry trades," CACIB notes.

"The rally is beginning to look stretched as AUD positioning has become elevated according to our proprietary positioning indices, and AUD/USD has outpaced its short-term fair value based on relative rates, global equities and commodity prices," CACIB adds.

Bank of America Global Research discusses EUR/USD time-zone analysis. 

"Looking specifically at EURUSD, its January rally showed more time‑zone dispersion than usual. Exhibit 2 shows the bulk of the move occurred during US hours, suggesting US‑based investors, rather than foreign buyers, dominated. EURUSD did rise during the European session early in the year but retraced in February, not yet pointing to large structural buying by European investors.

Meanwhile, EURUSD declined during Asia hours, indicating that rebalancing flows outweighed diversification flows," BofA notes.

(Repeats with no changes)

Feb 26 (Reuters) -

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/15.00 GMT on Thursday February 26

• EUR/USD: 1.1700 (1.1BLN), 1.1750 (651M), 1.1765 (566M), 1.1785-90 (858M)

• 1.1795-00 (3.52BLN), 1.1810-15 (1.3BLN), 1.1820-30 (3.1BLN)

• 1.1835-40 (586M), 1.1865-75 (1.41BLN)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/GBP bias skewed higher, but recent ranges (0.8650/0.8750) keep cross contained

• Thursday's by-election is baked in, thus impact on GBP should be muted

• 0.8750 cap continues to keep bulls at bay in the short-run

• And with catalysts remaining thin, there's no clear trigger for an impulsive move higher

• Next week's Spring Statement is not expected to deliver much in way of fireworks either

• In turn, range trading is the path of least resistance
EURGBP


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Feb 26 (Reuters) - USD/JPY faces a double headwind as the market enters a historically weak month-end period while the cloud weighs on the currency pair.

We backtested a strategy from January 2022 to January 2026 that implements a rules-based selling of the dollar versus the yen to capitalize on potential end-of-month weakness.

USD/JPY is sold at the close on the second-to-last trading day of each month and bought back at the close on the first trading day of the next month.

The data reveals that 57% of the time USD/JPY declined, indicating a slight downward bias for the dollar at month-end, possibly driven by institutional rebalancing, profit-taking, or month-end volatility. The daily cloud, which currently spans the 156.54-157.71 region, has repelled USD/JPY twice this week. The odds are against USD/JPY overcoming this cloud resistance. USD/JPY peaked at 156.82 on Wednesday and has subsequently suffered a setback from 156.38 to 155.69 on Thursday, EBS data shows. The yen has recovered as BOJ Governor Ueda flagged March and April for a possible rate hike.

The 30- and 60-day log correlation coefficients between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are both above +0.50, meaning that the two currency pairs will likely weaken in tandem.
Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own; Editing by Jane Merriman)

Feb 26 (Reuters) - A seven-week bull run for AUD/USD has seen the Aussie trading at levels not seen since January 2023. But with weekly momentum indicators at levels not seen since March 2021 and the Relative Strength Index at a 17-year high, there may be signs of trend stress.

The weekly indicators might be suggesting risk of a correction, but they also highlight the strength of the underlying bull trend and, as such, the AUD rally still demands respect.

A long-term bear trend - February 2021 to April 2025 - was broken in December 2025, following a bullish reversal signal recorded in April 2025 after hitting a significant 0.5910 low point. The three-month bull run is eyeing the 0.7158 high from February 2023, but reaching this target might depend on AUD/USD staging an adjustment first.

The fundamental backdrop, which has supported the AUD, might also be relaxing its grip on the market.

Australian inflation and wage growth appear to be moderating, and the Reserve Bank has admitted in recent policy minutes that “it was not possible to have a high degree of confidence in any particular path for the cash rate”.

The minutes from the February monetary policy board meeting suggest that the RBA is in no rush to tighten policy further, having raised the benchmark rate to 3.85%.

However, inflation remains above target and, while a March rate hike might be off the table, a move in May is favoured by analysts.

Overall, there might be scope for AUD/USD to correct lower, but any adjustment within the underlying trend is likely to be small.
AUD/USD weekly chart:


AUD/USD Daily Chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• A short-squeeze lifted AUD/USD from 0.65 toward 0.70

• Traders then started to buy with net long present week to Feb 3

• Bets on rise grew to $3.25 billion by Feb 25

• AUD/USD 0.6897-0.7147 in February - last 0.7125

• Rally stretched above top of the 20-month Bollinger Bands at 0.7042

• EUR/USD positive signs emerging which may encourage AUD bulls

•
AUDUSD and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Feb EUR/USD low at 1.1742 is a marked rise from Jan low at 1.1572

• Significant lows have continuously risen, Nov 1.1469, Aug 1.1392

• Despite falling below 55-DMA at 1.1774 EUR/USD has not closed below it

• Five tests below all followed by closes above the 55-DMA

• EUR/USD holding up despite the presence of huge bullish speculation

• Topside targets: 1.1905, 1.2006, 1.2088, 1.2170, 1.2286 and 1.2434

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/15.00 GMT on Thursday February 26

• EUR/USD: 1.1700 (1.1BLN), 1.1750 (651M), 1.1765 (566M), 1.1785-90 (858M)

• 1.1795-00 (3.52BLN), 1.1810-15 (1.3BLN), 1.1820-30 (3.1BLN)

• 1.1835-40 (586M), 1.1865-75 (1.41BLN)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD bid in Asia as U.S. tariff policy uncertainty weighs on USD

• BoE Governor remarks Tuesday raise doubts on Mar rate cut, supports

• Focus shifts to Manchester election Thu; polls say it is too close to call

• Will be PM Starmer's first electoral test since Mandelson appointment uproar

• British Fin Min Rachel Reeves delivers spring financial statement next week

• Resistance 1.3580, 1.3600, 1.3625, support 1.3540, 1.3500-10

• Asia range 1.3554-1.3575
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD steady Thur as markets continue to regain risk appetite

• Pair likely to challenge 0.7158 resistance in coming sessions

• Wed's higher than anticipated monthly CPI underwriting bid sentiment

• DXY consecutive failures to break above 97.95 55-DMA a bearish flag

• RBA Governor Bullock says patience needed in setting monetary policy

• U.S. initial jobless claims (poll +215K) due Thur, Jan PPI data Fri

• Range Asia 0.7118-35, support 0.6900 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD well supported in Asia after closing 0.55% higher Wednesday

• BoE Governor Bailey's remark Tue raises doubt on Mar rate cut, supports

• Uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policy continues to weigh on dollar

• UK's Starmer faces latest test in tight-run local vote on Thursday

• British Fin Min Rachel Reeves delivers spring financial statement next week

• Resistance 1.3580, 1.3600, 1.3625, support 1.3540, 1.3500-10

• Wednesday range 1.3492-1.3567; Asia range 1.3554-1.3571
GBP

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD flat in Asia Thur, activity subdued despite risk sentiment uplift

• AU Q4 capital expenditure +0.4% q/q (poll 0.0%), plant/machinery -1.7% q/q

• Nvidia results mildly better than expectations but fail to inspire markets

• AUD remains elevated in wake of Wed's hotter than expected inflation update

• Pair stops short of challenging 0.7158 resistance, requires fresh momentum

• RBA Governor Bullock cited need for patience in determining OCR pathway

• U.S. initial jobless claims (poll +215K) due Thur, Jan PPI data Fri

• Range Asia 0.7118-25, support 0.6900 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY to 156.82 EBS yesterday, into 156.53-157.71 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Back below since and trading 156.12-38 so far in Asia

• BOJ Gov Ueda flagged March-April rate hike chance, effectively capping pair?

• Debate on BOJ hikes likely to continue with PM Takaichi seen against

• Daily cloud cap for now, support from flat daily kijun at 155.66

• Ascending 100-DMA below at 155.14 and daily tenkan at 154.69

• Cloud at peak today and to 155.72-75 by March 3, break above inevitable?

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials in flux, trend still down?

• Yesterday saw differential in 2s widen at bit to 223 bps, 10s off to 191 bps

• Option expiries today on small side, only smattering between 155.00-157.00

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on BOJ Ueda ,

• US markets , , ,

• Fed-speak , ,

• IMF on US , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

BNP Paribas Research discusses AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook.

"We are turning more bullish on AUDUSD, revising up our year-end forecast to 0.72 from 0.66. We also raise our NZDUSD forecast to 0.60 from 0.58, leaving AUDNZD at an imminent Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiking cycle as hard data have yet to improve materially.

We think that relative central bank divergence should contribute to AUD/NZD 1.20 by year end," BNPP notes.

"Two factors drive our change in view on AUDUSD: a shift in superannuation behaviour and the Reserve Bank of Australia hiking interest rates," BNPP adds.

• AUD/USD +0.9% late Wed after Wed's higher than expected CPI update

• RBA Governor Bullock flagged need for patience in setting policy path

• USD index -0.2% after failing to break above pivotal 97.96 55-DMA

• U.S. equities firmer ahead of important Nvidia results, due post-close

• AU Q4 capex data & U.S. initial jobless claims (poll +215K) due Thur

• Overnight range 0.7073-0.71244, support 0.6900 0.6660, resistance 0.7158
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar fell on Wednesday, sliding again during the New York session, as haven demand faded amid rising tech stocks ahead of Nvidia’s earnings and softer oil prices. Oil fell after reports that OPEC+ is considering an April output increase, partly offsetting Iran-supply concerns, and a much larger-than-expected U.S. crude inventory build.

The dollar index retreated after failing once again to break above its 55-day moving average at 98.00, mirroring repeated setbacks seen over the past week.

USD/CNH posted its biggest drop since August, sliding to a 34-month low under 6.86 and pressing against its lower Bollinger.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz urged renewed partnership with China. Fed speak leaned slightly hawkish with Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid saying that too high inflation remains a key problem, while St. Louis Fed President Albert Musalem said it is important to finish the job on inflation and that policy is currently balanced. Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin said AI may not wipe out many jobs and could help workers learn new ones. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that the U.S. tariff rate for some countries will rise to 15% or higher from the newly imposed 10%. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said that President Donald Trump still preferred a diplomatic solution with Iran and that he hoped Iranians took that seriously in their negotiations on Thursday.

EUR/USD bounced from 1.1775 to 1.1814 on softer U.S. yields, broad USD selling, firm risk assets, and a fresh USD/CNH low, with mixed techs ahead of Thursday’s jobless-claims risk. GBP/USD rose to 1.3560 after a 1.3567–1.3492 range, clearing the 50- and 10-DMAs and targeting the 21-DMA as traders shrugged off dovish BoE expectations, weighed U.S. trade-policy risks, and looked to upcoming U.S. data and BoE’s Huw Pill on Friday.

AUD/USD reversed early losses to hit 0.7124 as easing yields, a softer USD, stronger risk assets, and a fresh USD/CNH low supported a bullish technical backdrop ahead of Q4 CAPEX. USD/JPY fell back below the 156.43–157.54 cloud on broad USD weakness and improved risk tone, shifting focus to supports near 155–155.60 ahead of BOJ board member Hajime Takata’s speech and month-end flows.

The S&P 500 was up 0.76%.

WTI crude oil fell marginally.

Gold rose 1.0%, silver gained 3.9% and copper edged up 0.9%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.28%, USD/JPY +0.31%, GBP/USD +0.47%, AUD/USD +0.91%, DXY -0.14%, EUR/JPY +0.60%, GBP/JPY +0.78%, AUD/JPY +1.21%.(Burton Frierson)

ANZ Research maintains a bullish bias on Gold.

"Underlying fundamentals remain intact, as accommodative monetary policy has room to extend through to Q4 2026. We now expect the Fed to resume cuts in Q2 – likely June – and to add another cut in Q4, bringing the terminal rate down to 3% from the current 3.75%. This trajectory will support non-yielding gold," ANZ notes.

"Renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran are set to revive haven demand for gold. And ongoing Russia-Ukraine talks suggest persistent volatility in the geopolitical backdrop. Economic risks linger, with markets yet to see the effects of increased US tariffs; and financial risks are mounting amid concerns around the AI-driven equity rally...

Amid these uncertainties, we believe gold remains a compelling hedge against market risks. Investor positioning is less crowded after the latest profit taking, leaving ample room for investors to build fresh long positions," ANZ adds

• Ether rallied sharply Wednesday, it traded up +9.68% into Europe's close

• The cryptocurrency rallied 1847.14-2039.13, traded to a 7-session high

• Ether also rallied above the 10-DMA which had been helping to limit the upside

• Daily RSI rose from near oversold territory, indicates short-term bull momentum

• A daily close above the 10-DMA could give Ether bulls some confidence

• Monthly techs remain bearish though, suggests any rally may be only a correction
eth


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)