• Cable drops to 1.3231 as safe-haven dollar catches fresh bid

• 1.3231 is the lowest level since early December (1.3212 was Dec 3 low)

• Asian session low was 1.3315 - before UK GDP data miss hurt pound

• CFTC data on FX positioning is due at 3.30pm ET (1930 GMT)

• Data is likely to show net GBP short rose again in the week to March 10

• Barclays expects Fed to push back rate cuts on inflation worries

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research outlines the latest findings from its FX and Rates Sentiment Surve.

"USD positioning swung rapidly from a record underweight a month ago to neutral levels, with investors viewing traditional "risk off" as the biggest upside risk from here. In contrast, duration exposure/views have been more stable following the Middle East conflict, with the pain likely concentrated in the front-end," BofA notes.

"There is low conviction in volatile markets but for choice, investors prefer to chase the momentum in USD but fade the back-up in rates. This is consistent with our view that global recession risk from persistently high energy prices may be underpriced," BofA adds.

Sterling faces a challenging near-term outlook, with risks skewed toward further downside as a toxic combination of stagnating growth and persistent inflation weighs on investor sentiment.

Sterling fell to a three-month low of $1.3245 on Friday following data showing the UK economy stagnated unexpectedly in January. This weak activity, coupled with stubbornly high inflation expectations, has fueled stagflation fears just as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drive energy prices higher—a dual blow that acts as both a tax on growth and a catalyst for price pressures. Market participants are increasingly adding to short positions as the currency’s yield advantage evaporates. Rising fiscal concerns have pushed 10-year gilt yields toward last summer’s highs by 4.8%, while shifting STIR expectations, as indicated by LSEG's IRPR, now indicate a potential Bank of England hike by the end of 2026, a stark reversal of earlier expectations of as much as 2-25bp cuts into yearend 2026. Simultaneously, Fed rate cut expectations have been scaled back to a single 25-basis-point move in September, further squeezing the pound.

From a technical standpoint, the outlook is increasingly bearish as GBP/USD moves farther below its 200-DMA at 1.3441 and has pierced the lower daily Bolli at 1.3277. Immediate support is found at today's low of 1.3245, and a sustained break below this level could signal a deeper retracement toward late-2025 ranges near 1.30.

On the topside, any relief rallies will likely find stiff resistance in the 1.3363/68 area, the daily conversion line and Friday high. Further up, the 100-DMA at 1.3399 and recently bruised 200-DMA serve as formidable ceilings that the pair must reclaim to neutralize the current negative momentum.
Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research previews next week's RBA March policy meeting.

"We now expect the RBA to raise the cash rate 25bp at its March meeting to 4.10% (GS prior: +25bp in May), a risk we have been highlighting as a 30-40% probability since the strikingly hawkish pivot in the RBA’s reaction function in February,:" GS notes.,

A March hike is far from a done deal, but several recent developments suggest it is now the most likely scenario (GS: 60% subjective probability)," GS adds.

ANZ Research previews next week's RBA March policy meeting and discusses its AUD/USD strategy around the meeting.

"We now expect the RBA to raise the cash rate by 25bp next week, followed by an additional 25bp in May. In this scenario, we would likely see a rally in the AUD/USD, pushing it to test recent highs around 0.72 following the meeting. This remains our base case," ANZ notes.

"That said, in the event of a hold we are unlikely to see lasting weakness in the AUD/USD given the recent strength of domestic data and resilience of the AUD against falling risk sentiment.

We view any post meeting declines as short-lived, with key support at 0.70. Any tactical decline may be an opportunity to enter fresh long positions. We remain optimistic on the AUD over the medium term and have revised our forecasts higher, now expecting AUD/USD to be at 0.75 by year end," ANZ adds.

• EUR/GBP finding a base ahead of key support at 0.8590-0.8610

• Dip lurking around key support zone as flagged

• Typical Friday dynamics in play - weekend geo gap risk hedging dominates

• USD bid, oil drifts higher and risk sentiment is softer

• Both EUR and GBP carry headline risk, so cross is unlikely to break out of existing ranges

• Current backdrop does not give a clear reason to favour either leg

• Range has been well-defined since July 2025 (0.8600/0.8850)

• Near-term resistance sits at 0.8687-0.8700 (200DMA), then above at 0.8750
EURGBP daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• Dollar on track for second weekly rise; euro, yen at multi-month lows

• USD/JPY hit 159.69 on Friday, the highest since Japan's July 2024 intervention, according to EBS

• Surge in FX option bets shows USD/JPY intervention line has shifted

• While lasting impact is debatable, a new round of intervention could trigger a sharp USD/JPY decline

• Direct intervention would likely see the early Oct 2025 gap between 147.45 and 149.02 filled

• BOJ may consider a rate hike if yen pressure persists

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Global economic concerns now driving renewed risk aversion - boosting USD and FX option prices

• FX option implied volatility surges back toward Monday's highs - seen after initial oil spike above 100

• AUD/USD implied volatility has seen a more pronounced increase than its G10 FX peers

• 1-3-month expiries have already fully retraced the setbacks from Mondays highs at 12.2 and 11.2

• Current levels are highest since Trumps liberation day spike to extremes in April 2025

• Related - USD call options are paying dividends - a worthy hedge
AUD/USD FXO implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable extends south to 1.3286 on January's unexpectedly flat UK GDP print

• Growth of 0.2% was expected. 1.3286 is the lowest level since Monday

• 1.3283 was low on Monday - when the dollar jumped on soaring oil prices

• Goldman hikes average Brent oil forecast to over $100 a barrel for March

• GBP/USD bear targets include 1.3255 (3-month low on March 3) and 1.3200

• 1.3315 (pre-GDP data low) and 1.3339 (Thursday low) are now resistance levels

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD drops to a six-month low at 1.1467 EBS (Nov 2025 low 1.1469)

• Decisive break below 1.1540 targets a return to Aug 2025 low at 1.1392

• Selling follows bearish signal on Mar 8 where 21-DMA fell below 55-DMA

• Traders likely to pare more of their $20 billion bullish wagers

• War adds to already significant risk of EUR/USD drop

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD into lower 1.1491-1.1529 EBS range in Asia, still on back foot

• Europe seen greater affected by supply disruptions in crude, energy

• EUR/USD lowest since 1.1492 trough on November 21, 2025

• 1.1490 break projects further moves lower to 1.1469 trough on Nov 5, '25

• EUR/USD heading lower with its 1.1510 hourly Ichimoku tenkan, 1.1528 kijun

• Large E1 bln in option expiries today between 1.1470-80 likely supportive

• To upside also 1.1500 E866 mln, between 1.1570-1.1605 total E3.6 bln

• Related , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/USD hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY 159.69 high in early afternoon Tokyo trading, EUR/JPY to 183.64

• Both since off but holding above 159.02 and 183.30 EBS lows earlier

• USD/JPY holding mostly above hourly Ichimoku tenkan at 159.35 for now

• Support below at hourly kijun at 159.13, good bidding interest pre-159.00

• 159.00 is where the daily Ichimoku kijun comes in today

• Good resistance eyed at 160.00, presumed line in sand for FX intervention

• Some pre-weekend profit taking eyed towards this level too into Europe, US

• EUR/JPY pivoting around base of 183.50-184.14 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Support from descending 200-HMA at 183.28, ascending 100-DMA 182.15 below

• Middle East news, crude oil moves remain the major foci still

• Related comment , also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY off from early highs, Asia 159.43 to 159.02 EBS before steadying

• Although no fresh jaw-boning from Japan's MOF, FX action threat seen real

• Longs also saw need to book profits ahead of the weekend

• Any weekend/Sunday Gotobi Tokyo fix demand eclipsed by sales

• Japanese exporters seen in mix of sellers

• Support from flat hourly Ichimoku kijun at 159.00 holding

• Ascending hourly Ichimoku cloud 158.25-78 below

• Related comment , also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD up 0.2% in Asia as risk appetite makes a tentative recovery

• Oil slips as U.S. issues 30-day license for stranded Russian oil purchases

• Measure the latest by Trump administration to calm energy markets

• GBP upside limited as Iran vows to fight on, keep the Strait of Hormuz shut

• Gilt yields rise on inflation concerns induced by energy shock, will cap GBP

• Heavy UK data schedule Fri; Jan GDP estimate, industrial output, trade due

• U.S. core PCE, 2nd estimate of Q4 GDP and durable goods due as well

• Supports 1.33 35-40, 1.3300-10, resistance 1.3400-10, 1.3450

• Thursday range 1.3339-1.3408; 1.33355-1.3368
Two-year bond yields in Germany and UK have jumped since the war started:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.2% Fri as markets contemplate Iran developments & oil inflation

• Brent crude closes above $100 a barrel for first time since Aug 29, 2022

• Treasury & bond yields rising as global inflation concerns mount

• U.S. Q4 GDP update & Jan Core PCE (Reuters poll consensus +0.4% m/m) due Fri

• 11-month AUD rally intact despite rising safe haven demand for USD

• RBA monetary policy meeting Mar 16-17, 25 bps hike to 4.10% anticipated

• Range Asia 0.7072-865, support 0.6944 0.6900, resistance 0.7282 0.7661
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD bid across board on Middle East conflict, higher crude, US yields

• Inflation, maybe stagflation fears high, helping to keep USD bid

• USD/JPY holding at recent highs, Asia 159.23-43 EBS so far

• High yesterday 159.43, January 14 and July 12, 2024 159.45

• 160 now in sights, presumed Japan FX intervention level

• Break above 160.00 projects tests towards 161.96 high July 3, 2024

• Tech support from flat hourly Ichimoku kijun at 159.00

• Japanese importer Tokyo fix bids supportive too ahead of Sunday Gotobi

• Smattering of chunky option expiries today at 159.00, 159.15, 160.00

• Related comments , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On US economy , Trump-speak , on BOJ
USD/JPY:


Yield on US Treasury 2s:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 3.8% — lowest level since early January 2026

• Sub-index set for its second straight day of losses, if current trend holds

• Gold prices fell on Thursday, hurt by stronger dollar, reduction in borrowing costs as Iran war stokes inflation concerns

• Gold miner Northern Star Resources down as much as 15.7%, after co on Friday warns that achieving lower end of its FY26 production guidance will be "challenging"

• Evolution Mining down as much as 1.9%

• Sub-index down 3.4% YTD
(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• NZD/USD -1.0% from Thur 0.59135 high as war continues to rage in Middle East

• Pair vulnerable to break of key 0.5837 support, move will accelerate below

• Impacts materializing from NZ economy's acute exposure to imported fuels

• DXY +0.4% Thur as surging oil prices renew safe haven demand

• Iran vows to maintain control of Strait of Hormuz

• NZ Feb manufacturing PMI 55.0 (prior 55.2), historical reading now redundant

• U.S. Q4 GDP update & Jan Core PCE (Reuters poll consensus +0.4% m/m) due Fri

• Range NZ 0.58485-605, support 0.5837 0.5710 0.5580, resistance 0.6092 0.6120
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

ING Research sees heavy betting on RBA hike at next week's March policy meeting.

"The Aussie dollar remains the big winner in G10. We must also note that markets are turning rather aggressive in pricing another RBA hike on 17 March. The implied probability of a 25bp increase next week is now 70% in the Cash Rate future market, and economic consensus also seems to be aligning with the hike call. That is offering more tailwind to AUD," ING notes.

"In a scenario where oil prices remain high, but equities show more signs of relative resilience, 0.720 appears to be a very reasonable target for AUD/USD going into the RBA decision. We could then see a sell-the-fact correction given aggressive positioning and the RBA striking a cautious tone on further tightening, given high uncertainty," ING adds.

• AUD/USD -1.0% late Thur despite looming spectre of Mar 17 RBA OCR hike

• Resurgent oil prices driving wider risk aversion and fresh USD demand

• Iran supreme leader vows to keep Strait of Hormuz shut

• AUD near lower hourly Bollinger band, buyers likely to emerge 0.7065

• U.S. initial jobless claims 213k (Reuters poll consensus 215k)

• U.S. Q4 GDP update & Jan Core PCE (Reuters poll consensus +0.4% m/m) due Fri

• Overnight range 0.7073-0.71479, support 0.6944 0.6900, resistance 0.7282
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP$ soft in NorAm afternoon -0.44% at 1.3354; Thursday range 1.3408-1.3339

• NorAm high above 1.34 faded as risk sold; Mideast conflict showing no signs of easing

• Oil moved higher after Iran attacks on shipping in strait; Iran leader to keep Hormuz shut

• Adding to downside risk for GBP$ is rising UK gilt yields, which are exacerbating fiscal angst

• UK Jan GDP estimate, output data, US durables, GDP and PCE data on Friday

• GBP$ res 1.3403 falling 10-DMA, 1.3443 bruised 200-DMA, 1.3481 daily cloud base

• Supt 1.3339 Thurday low, 1.3303 lower 30-d Bolli, 1.3255 trend low on Mar 3

GBP$ Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD rallied in Europe's morning, NY opened near 0.7135, selling took hold

• Firm US yields , broad based U$ buying weighed on the pair

• Further weight added as risk-off intensified due to comments out of Iran

• Oil & USD/CNH rallied while stocks, gold, AUD/JPY fell sharply

• AUD/USD dived down, hit 0.7073, neared 0.7085 late, was down -0.94% late

• Techs warn bulls; monthly RSI diverged on high hit Wed., monthly doji in place

• Price drop today following Wednesday's inverted hammer reinforces bear signs
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research maintains a bearish bias on EUR/USD but doesn't expect a repeat for 2022 collapse.

"We are bearish on EUR/USD from current levels but doubt that the Middle East crisis will lead to a repeat of the 2022 collapse," CACIB notes.

"(1) The US-Iran war will have a global impact unlike the Ukraine war that hit the Eurozone and thus the EUR particularly hard in 2022; (2) the EUR/USD losses could be more limited given that the ECB seems now readier to hike and is less likely to lag behind the Fed like it did in 2022, when a collapsing ECB-Fed policy rate spread weighed on EUR/USD; and (3) so far, we have not seen a sharp EGB market sell-off as was the case in 2022, suggesting that bond investors do not expect another European sovereign debt crisis, in a boost to the EUR," CACIB adds.

• Broader de-risking feeds into a textbook risk off move - AUD (-1%) weakens

• While AUD has held up well against geo risks - crowded longs remain a known risk

• Traders have so far been rewarded for holding - largely due to rising RBA rate hike bets

• However, stretched positioning does create the condition for a disorderly unwind

• Thus, near-term risk-reward for longs look stretched near mid-0.71s

• That said, any corrections will offer better entry points for longer-term buyers

• Elsewhere, AUD/NZD remains the clean AUD expression amid the flight to safety risk
AUD positioning


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))