The dollar index extended its week-long climb, hitting its highest level since late January on haven demand tied to the U.S. Middle East military buildup and a brief uptick in Treasury yields after FOMC minutes on Wednesday and a dip in jobless claims on Thursday. President Donald Trump warned at the Board of Peace meeting that Iran must strike a meaningful deal with the U.S. or face negative consequences, while signaling roughly a 10-day timeline amid a major U.S. military buildup in the region. WTI held near a six-month high on U.S.–Iran tensions and last week’s sharp drop in U.S. crude inventories. Treasury yields were steady after the trade deficit widened sharply in December, the February Philly Fed topped expectations, weekly jobless claims dipped, reversing gains in the New York afternoon as shares retreated. Markets await December PCE, Q4 GDP and February flash PMI on Friday.

The U.S. Supreme Court decision on tariffs can come as early as Friday. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed is near its mandates with rates close to neutral, the labor market remains resilient though softening and that recent political attacks threaten Fed independence.

Separately, consumer powerhouse Walmart forecast annual sales and profit below Wall Street expectations.

EUR/USD slid initially on firmer U.S. yields and dollar strength, hitting 1.1742 before rebounding above its 55-day MA at 1.1761 as USD momentum faded.

GBP/USD fell as soft UK data and renewed political pressure weighed, with fiscal-risk jitters keeping gilts volatile ahead of Friday’s UK retail sales and key U.S. data. The pair hovered near key moving averages and Fibonacci levels that threaten further weakness if broken.

AUD/USD bounced from an eight-session low of 0.7025 as early dollar strength faded, finishing modestly above its 21-DMA ahead of Friday’s Australia PMIs.

USD/JPY held firm ahead of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s policy speech and Japan CPI on Friday as haven and yield support buoyed the dollar. A drop beneath nearby 21-day and 100-day moving averages reinstates a bearish bias.

Treasury yields were largely flat keeping the 2s-10s curve unchanged at +61.9bps.

The S&P 500 fell 0.47%.

WTI oil rose 2% amid U.S.-Iran tensions and a drop in weekly inventories.

Gold was flat while copper dropped 1.0%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.07%, USD/JPY +0.01%, GBP/USD -0.20%, AUD/USD +0.21%, DXY +0.13%, EUR/JPY -0.08%, GBP/JPY -0.20%, AUD/JPY +0.20%.(Editing by Terence Gabriel Reporting by Robert Fullem)

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the scope for SNB intervention.

"The CHF remains close to its strongest real levels since 2011 ,What is key is that EUR/CHF is holding up just above 0.91, about 1.5% lower than the averages of last October and January. " CACIB notes.

"While the SNB is surely watching those developments closely despite no stepping-up in anti-CHF jawboning, it may also have to consider the signalling effect of eventually defending a more important psychological level such as 0.90," CACIB adds.

• Ether rallied toward the 10-DMA, 1986.91 traded, sellers then emerged

• Ether turned lower & broke Wednesday's low, hit a 7-session low of 1906.81

• The cryptocurrency's price action has technicals maintaining their bearish bias

• A daily inverted hammer candle formed & the 10-DMA helps to cap rallies

• Falling daily, monthly RSIs indicate that downward momentum is in place

• Bear pennant continuation pattern on daily charts reinforces the bearish tech signals

• Break of the pennant base completes the pattern, suggests 1000.00 may be neared
eth


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses AUD quant outlook.

"The AUD was the best-performing G10 currency last week after the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) rate hike materialized. After the recent bullish run, our quant signals now show AUD uptrends as stretched vs USD, EUR and CAD. Trend analysis shows an explicit reversal signal for AUDUSD. EURAUD downtrend and AUDCAD uptrend has also reached levels where we believe trend-followers would likely find it more prudent to pare back," BofA notes.

"Given myriad data releases for the USD, we see higher EURAUD as a cleaner way to tactically fade recent AUD strength. For AUD bulls, we would prefer to express further upside via higher AUDJPY," BofA adds.

• U.S.-Iran tensions keep EUR/CHF pinned near the lows

• Increased gap risk should see the cross edge lower into the weekend as CHF hedges are established

• A military strike would represent a clear EUR/CHF negative with a break of 0.91 opening up 0.90

• Though follow-through will depend on how contained the operation looks

• Away from geopolitics, flash EZ PMIs still matter

• However, upside surprises are more likely to be faded than chased in the current environment

• Topside remains constrained by the 200-hour MAs, which has guided the downtrend since Jan

• Initial support sits at 0.91
EURCHF hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

ANZ Research discusses its new Fed call.

"We now expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will resume interest rate cuts in Q2, probably in June, as it appears to have little appetite to cut at the March meeting. This change in view reflects the persistent guidance from many FOMC members that the committee can afford to be patient, awaiting confirmation that Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation is slowing from its current 2.8% y/y," ANZ notes.

"Owing to an extended pause in the rate cutting cycle, which we expect will increase disinflationary pressures, we are adding an additional 25bp rate cut to our forecast profile. We now forecast three 25bp rate cuts this year – one each in Q2, Q3 and Q4 – to leave the federal funds target range at 2.75–3.00%," ANZ adds.

Morgan Stanley summarizes its GBP and NZD near-term outlook.

"Underpriced dovish BoE risks and investor focus on UK political news suggest GBP should continue to underperform on crosses. We continue to see clear upside risks for EUR/GBP," MS notes.

"We remain cautious on NZD amid mixed recovery signals. Yield differentials imply AUD/NZD near 1.20," MS adds.

• Cable falls to 1.3467 as pound weakens on dovish steer from MPC member Mann

• Mann describes Wednesday's UK inflation data for January as "good numbers"

• Guidance increases probability of Mann helping to deliver BoE March rate cut

• 1.3467 is the lowest level for GBP/USD since Jan 22 (1.3402 was low that day)

• Dollar supported by hawkish Fed minutes, US-Iran tension (USD is safe-haven)

• U.S. jobless claims, trade data due at 1330 GMT; claims forecast at 225k

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of silver miners rise premarket, tracking prices of the white metal [GOL/]

• Spot silver gains 1.14% to $78.48/ounce

• Prices rise as lingering tensions between the United States and Iran prompted a flight to safety, while investors evaluated the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path

• Hecla Mining up 1.3%

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver and Silvercorp Metals each gain ~1%

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust ETF both advance 1.5%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

Feb 19 (Reuters) - The risk of an immediate run on the pound if Reform UK wins a majority at the general election due in 2029 has declined after the party led by Nigel Farage conveyed a message of evolution, rather than revolution, when it comes to Britain's Office for Budget Responsibility and the Bank of England.

Saying it backed the two institutions it has previously criticised, Reform - which leads the governing Labour Party in opinion polls - said it would make changes to the way both operate but would respect their independence.

Reform says the OBR - whose projections underpin the government's fiscal plan - would be joined by "super-forecasters" chosen via competitions for the most accurate modelling of the impact of finance ministry decisions, and called for more business figures to sit on the BoE's interest rate-setting committee. Reform's would-be finance minister, Robert Jenrick, also said the party "will only cut taxes when we have generated the fiscal headroom necessary to make tax cuts sustainable."

Former Conservative Prime Minister Liz Truss prompted heavy selling of GBP in September 2022 by unveiling unfunded tax-cut plans in her "mini-budget" after sidelining the OBR.

Related:
GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD has traded a 40 pip range thus far Thursday; 0.7040-0.7080

• 0.7080 was also the European morning high on Wednesday

• AUD supported by solid Australian jobs data; jobless rate 4.1% vs 4.2% expected

• There is a large 0.7075 option expiry for the 10am ET NY cut

• AUD/NZD climbs to 1.1831, its highest level since July 2013

• Ascent fuelled by the Aussie jobs data, dovish hold from RBNZ Wednesday

AUDNZD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable hits 1.3512 after pushing its recovery envelope from 1.3482

• 1.3482 was four-week low in Asia (1.3484 was Jan 23 low)

• Drop to 1.3482 was influenced by hawkish Fed minutes, potential US-Iran conflict

• Dollar is a safe-haven. 1.3522 and 1.3552 are GBP/USD resistance levels

• 1.3552 was Wednesday's Asian session low (before UK inflation data)

• UK January retail sales data and February flash PMIs due on Friday

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Traders added $10 billion to euro long positions after Jan 23

• At almost $27 billion the net long is one of the largest on record

• EUR/USD hit 2026 high at 1.2084 on Jan 26 then dropped to 1.1766 in Feb

• On Wednesday EUR/USD reached 1.1782 EBS, Thu's range 1.1785-00 EBS

• Stops from longs lie below 55-DMA 1.1763 and 61.8% 2026 rise at 1.1767

• A slide below 1.1700 likely to follow any move under 1.1760

• Extreme divergence in FX market is a cause for concern

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/15.00 GMT on Thursday February 19

• EUR/USD: 1.1700-10 (2.02BLN), 1.1725-35 (2.9BLN), 1.1740-50 (3.4BLN)

• 1.1755-65 (3.2BLN), 1.1770-80 (904M), 1.1785-95 (2.63BLN)

• 1.1800-10 (2.7BLN), 1.1820-25 (1.3BLN), 1.1830-35 (1.0BLN)

• 1.1850-55 (2.43BLN), 1.1885-90 (591M), 1.1895-00 (585M), 1.1905-10 (496M)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/THB lower, despite broadly higher USD elsewhere

• Pair capped by THB/JPY buying and gold related sales

• USD/THB last at 31.17-20, traded amid 31.18-27 range so far

• Good support at 31.0 unlikely to crack though

• SET +1.66%, adding to THB positives
THB

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• GBP/USD unchanged in Asia, consolidates after falling to a near 3-week low

• Broadly stronger dollar, soft UK CPI continue to weigh on sentiment'

• Hawkish Fed Jan meeting minutes, upbeat U.S. economic data boost USD

• UK inflation hits lowest in nearly a year; BoE Mar rate cut chances at 90%

• Outlook diverges from Fed; many officials open to hikes if inflation sticky

• Political pressure on PM Starmer may rise next week as a by-election looms

• GBP close below 1.3511, 55-day on Wed bearish; supports 1.3440-50, 1.3400-10

• Resistance 1.3530-40, 1.3580; Asia range 1.3488-1.3498
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY remains bid in Asia, briefly topped 155.00, high so far 155.05 EBS

• Off a bit since on presumed Japanese exporter, other sales

• Massive $1.9 bln in option expiries between 155.00-10 today

• Plenty of gamma-related action, tomorrow $1.1 bln in expiries at 155.00 too

• Tech resistance from daily Ichimoku tenkan at 155.11, kijun 155.66 above

• Still ascending daily Ichimoku cloud 156.13-157.35, likely cap for now

• Support from 154.63 low earlier today

• Related , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD on the defensive in Asia after closing 0.55% lower on Wednesday

• Undermined by upbeat U.S. economic data, hawkish Fed Jan meeting minutes

• U.S. rate futures price in 58 bps of easing this year, down from 63 bps

• UK Jan inflation hits lowest in nearly a year, bets on a BoE rate cut rise

• Chance of BoE Mar rate cut rises to 90%, up from around 80% before the data

• Inflation expected to slow sharply in Apr; 2 BoE rate cuts expected in 2026

• Political pressure on PM Starmer may resurface next week; by-election looms

• GBP closes below 55-day MA at 1.3511, next supports 1.3440-50, 1.3400-10

• Resistance 1.3530-40, 1.3580; Wednesday range 1.3492-1.34805
GBP:


How inflation in the UK has slowed:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.1% after AU jobs data reveals 50.5k full time employment uplift

• AU Jan employment +17.8k jobs (poll +20.0k), 4.1% unemployment (poll 4.2%)

• DXY +0.6% Wed after FOMC meeting minutes reveal developing hawkish lean

• Little progress on U.S./Iran & RU/Ukraine talks raising geopolitical risk

• U.S. initial jobless claims due Thur (poll 225k), PCE & Q4 GDP advance Fri

• Range Asia 0.7040-54, support 0.6900 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY sees a short squeeze of sorts, follows news on Japan US investments

• From 153.07 to 154.87 into New York yesterday, Asia 154.72-83 EBS so far

• Spot back up to area of ascending 100-DMA at 154.86

• Flat daily Ichimoku tenkan 155.11, now descending kijun 155.65 above

• Japanese exporter offers eyed, importers too into today's Tokyo fix

• Massive $1.4 bln option expiries today between 154.75-85 to help cap spot

• Also, just above between 155.00-10 another $1.9 bln in expiries

• Smaller expiries today from 153.50 to 153.55

• Some bounce in JGB-US rate differentials but trend still for lower

• Related comments , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Fed , , ,

• And , on US economy , flows
USD/JPY:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries into next week:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

RBC Research discusses the JPY outlook over the medium-term.

"We maintain a bullish view on the JPY over the next few months. We highlight a JGB shift that would destabilize fixed income and USDJPY flows. We believe we are now in the early innings of such a rotation - in both rates and FX," RBC notes.

"There are four parts to the Japanese rotation trade – incentives, break evens, asset holdings, and expected flows.  Two factors will determine the foreign JGB demand – duration equivalence and FX carry. Interest is rising. As the breakeven between the US and Japan falls in duration, significantly larger notional amounts will be applied to this trade – raising the FX impact. All point to a preferred habitat shift in rates - and a stronger Yen. This is a long-cycle theme.  We maintain USDJPY for 147 end-26 and 135 end2027," RBC adds.

• NZD/USD -1.4% from Wed 0.6051 high in wake of RBNZ's less hawkish tone

• Pair targeting 0.5930 support, break below will accelerate rout

• DXY +0.6% compounding NZD's fate, FOMC meeting minutes reveal split views

• Scant progress on U.S./Iran & RU/Ukraine talks raising geopolitical risk

• NZ Jan trade balance, U.S. PCE data & Q4 GDP advance all due Fri

• Range NZ 0.59625-855, support 0.5930 0.5730 0.5580, resistance 0.6120
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.7% late Wed, as correlation algorithms react to NZD carnage

• NZD/USD down 1.4% after RBNZ flagged accommodative OCR for some time

• AUD pushing lower hourly Bollinger band, unlikely to fall much lower

• AU Jan employment 0030 GMT, Reuters poll: +20k jobs, 4.2% unemployment

• FOMC meeting minutes reveal split views, hawkish undertone increasing

• Broader USD index rallied 0.6%, cross above 55-DMA would be bullish flag

• Limited progress on U.S./Iran & RU/Ukraine talks escalate geopolitical risk

• Overnight range 0.7035-80, support 0.6900 0.6660 0.6420, resistance 0.7158
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Eikon search string for individual stock moves: [STXBZ]

• The Day Ahead newsletter: Click here

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The main U.S. indexes advanced on Wednesday as technology shares recovered some lost ground after an AI-led selloff, while investors awaited minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting later in the day. [.N]

At 13:30 EST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.49% at 49,775.69. The S&P 500 was up 0.78% at 6,896.80 and the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.15% at 22,838.45.

The top three S&P 500 percentage gainers:

• Global Payments Inc , up 16.6%

• Garmin Ltd , up 9.6%

• Cadence Design Systems Inc , up 9.3%

The top three S&P 500 percentage losers:

• Palo Alto Networks Inc , down 5.5%

• Crown Castle Inc , down 4.3%

• Republic Services Inc , down 4.0%

The top three NYSE percentage gainers:

• JELD-WEN Holding Inc , up 23.8%

• FiscalNote Holdings Inc , up 17.4%

• Global Payments Inc , up 16.8%

The top three NYSE percentage losers:

• Similarweb Ltd , down 39.5%

• HF Sinclair Corp , down 11.4%

• Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc , down 10.8%

The top three Nasdaq percentage gainers:

• Rackspace Technology Inc , up 217.4%

• Sensei Biotherapeutics Inc , up 182.1%

• Cardio Diagnostics Holdings Inc , up 86.6%

The top three Nasdaq percentage losers:

• JIADE Ltd , down 67.2%

• OLB Group Inc , down 41.8%

• Strata Skin Sciences Inc , down 39.3%

• Palo Alto Networks Inc : BUZZ - Drops on lowered annual profit forecast

• Nvidia Corp : BUZZ - Rises after mega multiyear Meta AI chip deal

• Rush Street Interactive Inc : BUZZ - Rises on upbeat FY revenue forecast

• Hecla Mining Co : BUZZ - Up after upbeat results, Casa Berardi sale announcement

• Coeur Mining Inc :

• Endeavour Silver Corp :

• Silvercorp Metals Inc :

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF :

BUZZ - Silver miners rise as investors weigh geopolitical risks; Fed minutes in focus

• Sandisk Corp : BUZZ - Lifts as Western Digital heads toward the exits

• CNH Industrial NV : BUZZ - Oppenheimer raises CNH Industrial's PT, sees earnings rebound

• Linde PLC :

• Air Products and Chemicals Inc : BUZZ - Bernstein raises price target on chemical companies

• New York Times Co : BUZZ - Climbs after Berkshire Hathaway discloses investment in co

• Howmet Aerospace Inc : BUZZ - Bernstein raises Howmet Aerospace PT on potential margin upside

• Itron Inc : BUZZ - Oppenheimer raises PT on Itron after strong results

• Riot Platforms Inc : BUZZ - Jumps after investor Starboard pushes for more AI deals

• Moderna Inc : BUZZ - Rises after US FDA agrees to review its flu vaccine

• Portland General Electric Co : BUZZ - Falls after $480 mln stock offering

• Figure Technology Solutions Inc : BUZZ - Slips after pricing stock offering

• ProPetro Holding Corp : BUZZ - Rises after upbeat Q4 results

• SolarEdge Technologies Inc : BUZZ - Gains as Q1 revenue forecast exceeds expectations

• HF Sinclair Corp : BUZZ - Falls as CEO takes leave amid disclosure review

• Analog Devices Inc : BUZZ - Rises on upbeat Q2 earnings forecast

• Teledyne Technologies Inc : BUZZ - TD Cowen raises Teledyne PT, sees improving prospects for drone business

• Getty Realty Corp : BUZZ - Drops on $131 mln stock sale

• Spruce Biosciences Inc : BUZZ - Jumps as co moves toward FDA filing for rare childhood brain disorder drug

• Genuine Parts Co : BUZZ - Truist lowers Genuine Parts to 'hold' on soft auto business performance

• SM Energy Co : BUZZ - Rises on deal to sell some Texas assets to Caturus for $950 mln

• Wingstop Inc : BUZZ - Rises after quarterly profit beat estimates

• W.P. Carey Inc : BUZZ - Down after $432 mln equity offering

• Insulet Corp : BUZZ - Climbs on better-than-expected quarterly results

• Wynn Resorts Ltd : BUZZ - Argus lowers Wynn's PT on weak US markets

• Ovintiv Inc : BUZZ - Gains on Anadarko assets sale

• Newmont Corp :

• Gold Fields Ltd :

• Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd :

• Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd :

BUZZ - Gold miners gain as investors weigh geopolitical risks

• Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc : BUZZ - Up on upbeat quarterly sales, profit

• Crescent Biopharma Inc : BUZZ - Rises as global trial for new cancer drug starts

• Rio Tinto PLC :

• BHP Group Ltd :

• Southern Copper Corp :

• Freeport-McMoRan Inc :

BUZZ - Copper miners gain as red metal rises on dip-buying, tech shares recovery

• Allstate Corp :

• Cincinnati Financial Corp :

• Progressive Corp :

• Erie Indemnity Co : BUZZ - Insurers fall, underperforming broader market, financials

Index RIC Index name Percent

change %

S&P 500 0.78

S&P 500 Information 1.49

Technology

S&P 500 Utilities -1.23

S&P 500 Consumer 1.36

Discretionary

S&P 500 Materials 0.98

S&P 500 Industrials 0.24

S&P 500 Communication 0.43

Services (Sector)

S&P 500 Financials 0.86

S&P 500 Real Estate -1.45

S&P 500 Health Care -0.12

S&P 500 Consumer Staples -0.57

S&P 500 Energy 1.83

(Compiled by Rajarshi Roy and Megavarshini G. Somasundaram)