ANZ Research discusses NZD/USD outlook around tonight's RBNZ policy meeting.

"This week is busy in NZ with the RBNZ meeting on Wednesday being the key event. We and the market expect the RBNZ to leave the OCR unchanged at 2.25%. With OIS pricing only around a 20% probability of a 25bp hike, focus will be on the tone and extent to which the RBNZ updates its OCR track," ANZ notes.

"Our base case is for the RBNZ’s OCR track to bring forward the timing of rate hike expectations relative to February’s track, while the neutral rate remains at 3%. If realised, this would sit below market pricing (~3.4% implied by May 2026) and likely be interpreted as dovish. In that scenario, the NZD/USD would likely drift modestly lower on the day. In the unlikely event of a 25bp hike, we would likely see a sharp rally in the pair and see 0.5950 tested," ANZ adds.

(Repeats with no changes)

May 26 (Reuters) -

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Tuesday 26 May

• EUR/USD: 1.1535-40 (1.3BLN), 1.1575-85 (1.3BLN), 1.1600-10 (3.0BLN)

• 1.1615-25 (292M), 1.1640-50 (2.5BLN), 1.1670-75 (289M)

• 1.1690-00 (1.3BLN), 1.1705-10 (325M), 1.1720-25 (830M)

• 1.1730-40 (1.5BLN), 1.1775 (962M)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Societe Generale Research likes short NZD/USD into tonight's RBNZ policy meeting.

"The currency that is most striking in the CFTC chart, is the AUD. The market built up the biggest long AUD position since 2013, growing it in recent weeks despite a wobble at the start of April. 5y yields have fallen by 30bp in recent weeks as the economic outlook has deteriorated and end-2026 rate-pricing has dropped by 20bp this month," SocGen notes.

"If a credible cease-fire extension is agreed, AUD seems bound to rally, but there is a lot of good news hard-wired rather than baked into the current AUD/USD price. AUD/NZD would be more attractive, if it weren’t for the fact that this pair is up 13% in the last year. Maybe the answer is simply to short NZD/USD ahead of what will probably be a dovish hold by the RBNZ tonight," SocGen adds.

Credit Agricole CIB Research highlights the prelim reading of its month-end fixing model for the month of May.

"Global equity markets were broadly firmer in May. In FX, the USD has outperformed across the board on the month," CACIB notes.

Overall, the moves in equity markets, when adjusted for marketcapitalisation and FX performance this month, suggest that month-end portfolio-rebalancing flows are likely to be moderate USD selling across the board, with the strongest sell signal in the case of the USD vs the AUD," CACIB adds.

(Repeats with no changes)

May 26 (Reuters) -

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Tuesday 26 May

• EUR/USD: 1.1535-40 (1.3BLN), 1.1575-85 (1.3BLN), 1.1600-10 (3.0BLN)

• 1.1615-25 (292M), 1.1640-50 (2.5BLN), 1.1670-75 (289M)

• 1.1690-00 (1.3BLN), 1.1705-10 (325M), 1.1720-25 (830M)

• 1.1730-40 (1.5BLN), 1.1775 (962M)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/GBP downside capped again at 0.8600-15 - range lows holding firm

• Keeps the 2026 range (0.8600-0.8750) fully intact

• UK by-election (June 18) too far out to be a GBP driver right now

• Gilt yield pullback has given GBP a marginal bid vs EUR

• 0.8600 remains the line in the sand - until that breaks, the range should be respected
EURGBP daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• US military strikes Iranian boats, missile launch sites: CENTCOM

• Unsettles risk and threatens peace talks

• Iran's top envoys discussing potential peace deal with Qatar pm, official says

• Oil jumps: Brent up 3.66% at $99.53 PB, dollar mixed, index marginally higher

• AUD/USD slips from Monday's 0.7182 high: backs away from 20-DMA, 0.7186

• Tight Tuesday range limiting AUD damage: support at 0.7145 Monday low

• Bigger levels to watch: 0.7100 50-DMA and 0.7277 May 6 high
AUD/USD daily chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP holding the Monday break as Iran deal optimism keeps bulls in the driver's seat for now

• But fresh U.S. strikes on Iran is capping topside

• Geo noise means more two way price action to follow

• Cable has cleared the 200DMA cluster (1.3410-24) which is constructive

• However, 1.3600-50 is the real test. Below there, cable is likely to remain choppy
GBPUSD daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• Shares of Spain-based Atalaya Mining Copper SA rise as much as 7.4% to 848p - among biggest gainers on FTSE midcaps index

• Co sees FY2026 copper production within previously guided 50,000-54,000 tonnes; silver output seen at 0.9-1.1 mln ounces

• CEO Alberto Lavandeira says firm is "increasingly confident" about both business outlook and copper market

• "In our view, the shares offer longer-term value of over 1,600p," Peel Hunt analysts say

• YTD, stock is down ~3%

(Reporting by Neeshita Beura in Bengaluru)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Tuesday 26 May

• EUR/USD: 1.1535-40 (1.3BLN), 1.1575-85 (1.3BLN), 1.1600-10 (3.0BLN)

• 1.1615-25 (292M), 1.1640-50 (2.5BLN), 1.1670-75 (289M)

• 1.1690-00 (1.3BLN), 1.1705-10 (325M), 1.1720-25 (830M)

• 1.1730-40 (1.5BLN), 1.1775 (962M)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD down 0.1% after closing 0.5% higher on Monday on Iran deal optimism

• Iran's top envoys discussing potential peace deal with Qatar prime minister

• But Washington and Tehran play down hopes for an imminent breakthrough

• Reports of U.S. strikes on Iranian boats, missile launch sites dampen mood

• Brent futures up 1.8%, US stock futures pare gains, European futures mixed

• Resistance 1.3520-25, 1.3550, support 1.3455-60, 1.3415-20

• Range Monday 1.3450-1.3509, Asia 1.3484-1.35045
The war in Iran is already depressing services activity:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Little doing in USD/JPY in Asia today, range 158.82-159.00 EBS, in stasis

• Still holding around top of 156.37-158.85 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Mostly below 158.98-159.07 hourly Ichimoku cloud, 158.80 200-HMA support

• Some option expiries around 159.00 providing some gravitational pull

• Also $879 mln below at 158.00, $623 mln above at 160.00

• EUR/JPY 184.90-185.02 EBS, in stasis too and in 184.37-185.73 hourly cloud

• Essentially sideways since May 8, some option expiries today at 185.10

• CHF/JPY 202.60-203.03 after push up to 203.46 yesterday

• Mostly above daily Ichimoku cloud since May 7, cloud today 200.98-201.63

• GBP/JPY off some after trade up to 214.67 yesterday, Asia 214.63 to 214.23

• Ascending daily Ichimoku cloud 211.53-213.38 below

• AUD/JPY 113.80-114.03, in 112.60-114.73 range since May 13

• BOJ Himino said Middle East developments will factor into rate-hike timing

• Related comment , also

• BOJ Himino-speak ,

• On Japan , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY daily:


AUD/JPY daily:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Tue, trading subdued in wake of U.S. Memorial Day holiday

• Fresh U.S. military strikes in southern Iran leaves markets on edge

• Trump's mixed messaging on Iran continues; Brent crude +2.1% in Asia Tue

• Iran representatives talking with Qatari officials on potential peace deal

• AUD upswing momentum fading, resistance forming 0.7180-85 region

• AU Apr monthly CPI update due Wed, Q1 capital expenditure data Thur

• Range Asia 0.71645-76, support 0.7080 0.6834, resistance 0.7283 0.7661
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD did little yesterday, range 1.1621-53 EBS, Asia today 1.1635-43

• On hold for now awaiting London, Europe re-opens, upside seen limited

• Crude oil off but market awaiting fresh news on US-Iran, flows light

• Spot holding below 1.1668-97 daily Ichimoku cloud, 1.1682/98 200/100-DMAs

• Above descending 200-HMA at 1.1634 though, cloud 1.1612-21 below

• Nearby option expiries today 1.1535-85 total E2.8 bln, 1.1600-45 E3.5 bln

• And 1.1650-95 E3.2 bln, 1.1700-75 E4.3 bln

• 1.1600-45 strikes likely to contain action for now

• View ECB could hike maybe twice during course of year supportive

• That said, ECB govt bonds rallied yesterday on US-Iran peace hopes

• Related , , ECB-speak
EUR/USD daily:


EUR/USD hourly:


EUR/USD nearby option expiries this week:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY in tight range yesterday, 158.75-159.06, Asia today 158.82-97 EBS

• Market awaiting more news on Middle East, fresh flows

• Action light yesterday on US/London/other market holidays

• USD/JPY still on hold around top of 156.37-158.85 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Still below 158.98-159.07 wafer thin hourly Ichimoku cloud, if only barely

• Tech support eyed at ascending 200-HMA at 158.79

• On options front, expiries today at 158.00 $879 mln, 158.90-159.00 $443 mln

• Also 160.00 $623 mln up top

• Quiet eyed ahead of London, US market re-opens barring fresh news

• Related comment , also

• On crude , US-Iran ,
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes may bolster any nearby support and resistance levels, and potentially have a magnetic effect on FX price action towards each day's 10 a.m. New York time (1400 GMT) cut expiry. It is therefore advantageous to know in advance where the larger strikes lie.

Date Strike Notional

(euros)

Monday 1.1600- 1.6bln

May 25 10

1.1635 1.4bln

1.1645- 1.6bln

50

1.1655- 395mln

65

1.1675 252mln

1.1695- 1.2bln

1.1700

Tuesday 1.1575- 1.3bln

May 26 85

1.1600 2.5bln

1.1610 436mln

1.1650 2.1bln

1.1695- 1.1bln

1.1700

1.1725- 1.4bln

30

1.1735- 804mln

40

1.1775 1bln

Wednesday 1.1550- 2.5bln

May 27 60

1.1570- 1.1bln

80

1.1600 761mln

1.1620- 907mln

30

1.1650- 1.5bln

60

1.1700 1.4bln

1.1715- 2.3bln

20

1.1725- 1bln

30

1.1740- 4.3bln

50

1.1795- 3bln

1.1800

Thursday 1.1700- 1.3bln

May 28 05

1.1725- 3bln

30

1.1735- 2.5bln

40

Friday 1.1500- 2.3bln

May 29 05

1.1550 1bln

1.1580 715mln

1.1600 896mln

1.1650- 2bln

60

1.1700 866mln

1.1750 1bln Continued option trading can increase the size of current strikes and add new ones, so be sure to check the daily FX option expiry updates that are posted around 7 a.m. London time on FXBUZ.

Related Explainer - Impact of FX option expiries on spot prices (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

AUD has long traded as a liquid proxy for global risk appetite and that sensitivity cuts both ways. With geopolitical uncertainty high and sentiment fragile, AUD/USD options offer a practical and cost-effective hedge against a broader deterioration in risk appetite - and the volatility numbers support that case.

Benchmark 1-month expiry AUD/USD FX option implied volatility compressed to near parity with realised volatility in mid May, a convergence that historically signals an attractive entry point for option buyers. Those who acted were rewarded as spot sold off sharply last week and implied volatility spiked to 8.8. Realised volatility has since held above 9.0, reflecting the scale of recent spot moves, while 1-month implied has pulled back but found a floor around 8.5 for now. With implied still running below realised, the value case remains intact - and more so on any deeper declines towards mid May lows.

Risk reversals have nudged higher in favour of AUD puts over calls, reflecting a modest increase in demand for downside protection amid the recent spot decline. Even so, the premium remains well below the peaks seen in early March, when market stress was at its height. For those with AUD exposure, that gap is worth noting - downside protection is still available at a relatively modest cost.

Catalyst risk remains real and unresolved. U.S. President Donald Trump has described a deal framework with Iran as "largely negotiated" - but key sticking points are unresolved, and the U.S. blockade remains in full force. Markets have seen this film before, and the gap between framework and signature is where risk lies. Equities have surged and AUD has caught a bid, but the FX options market is not standing down. Implied vols sit unmoved. Markets are pricing hope, not conviction, and that distinction matters. A breakdown in talks would weigh heavily on risk assets, with AUD - given its sensitivity to global sentiment and commodity prices - among the most exposed. A surprise rise in Australian unemployment to its highest since 2021 last week adds a domestic layer of vulnerability.

Options markets are not pricing that risk environment aggressively. For those with AUD exposure, the window to hedge at a reasonable cost remains open.
AUD/USD 25 delta risk reversals


AUDUSD OPTION VOL


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Hopes of US/Iran deal to end the conflict and restart oil flow have aided risk sentiment and ultimately AUD on Monday

• AUD/USD testing top of 19 May 0.7080-0.7177 daily range, which has contained the pair

• 10-dma (0.7173) crossed below 21-dma (0.7186) last week - a bearish sign - but closing above those levels can negate

• 50-dma continues to underpin at 0.7099, but a close below could see bearish sentiment build

• FX option implied volatility met demand on spot setbacks and retains higher levels - a warning and a value hedge
AUD=D3


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY trading tiny intraday ranges around 159.00, with 159.40 the highest post-intervention peak (21 May)

• Pre-intervention rate was above 160.00, knocked to 155.50 (Apr 30) then 155.00 (May 6)

• Markets clearly wary of further intervention, capping upside, June rate hike expectations cap gains, too

• Option implied vol near pre intervention and 4-year lows, with realised vol even lower, reflecting subdued price action

• Yet FX options are primed for an eventual breakout, with a clear downside lean

• 1-month 10 delta Butterfly spread doubled to a 1.2 premium over two weeks, flagging that FX breakout risk

• Risk reversals keep a strong premium for JPY calls over puts - showing intervention risk still considered live
JPY=EBS


USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversals


USD/JPY spot and 1-month 10 delta butterfly spread


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD slips, EUR gains on Iran peace deal hopes — but EUR/USD upside proving limited so far as caution prevails

• EUR/USD recovers 1.1649 from Thursday's early-April low of 1.1576 — but 18-19 May highs at 1.1662/61 cap the move

• Bulls need a close above the 55-dma at 1.1645 to gain conviction — the 200-dma at 1.1682 remains the bigger hurdle

• FX option implied vols stay pinned just above pre-Iran conflict lows — lack of realised vol capping demand of late

• Risk reversals easing — EUR call premiums over puts narrowing as downside pressure on EUR/USD fades with peace hopes

• Cash hedging of large FX option strikes helping anchor EUR/USD of late — more notable expiries due in the 1.16s Monday
EUR=EBS


EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY remained relatively buoyant though bias down on US-Iran deal hopes

• USD/JPY range 158.75-159.06 EBS, off tad from 159.40 high May 21

• Good tech support eyed at ascending 200-HMA at 158.66

• Intervention risk topside still seen, BOJ June hike expectations too

• Holding at top of 156.37-158.85 daily Ichimoku cloud still

• Hawkish Fed expectations taking hold though, one maybe more hikes this year

• Option expiries nearby today 158.50/70 $784 mln, 158.95-159.05 $642 mln

• Also $1 bln above between 159.20-30, likely cap for now

• EUR/JPY 184.85-185.07 EBS, doing little, in 184.37-185.67 daily Ichi cloud

• CHF/JPY better bid, 202.15-203.24, highest since Apr 24, Apr 21 peak 204.42

• GBP/JPY also bid, 213.22-214.30, tracking away from 211.53-213.31 Ichi cloud

• Towards 214.42 high May 11, recent peak 216.59 April 30

• AUD/JPY 113.55-91, towards 114.73 peak May 13?

• Related comment , also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


CHF/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD rallies 0.4% in Asia as Iran deal optimism lifts risk appetite

• Oil drops, stocks rally on reports of "largely negotiated" Iran-U.S. MoU

• WTI -4.9%, S&P futures +0.8%, Treasury futures up as Fed rate bets ease

• Caution required; Trump says no rush for deal, Iran says U.S. blocks assets

• Resistance 1.3500, 1.3520-25, support 1.3455-60, 1.3415-20

• Fri range 1.34155-1.34605, Asia 1.3450-1.3494; UK, U.S. markets closed Mon
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD bid in Asia with crude oil prices off, on possible US-Iran deal

• EUR/USD 1.1621-49 EBS, still below wafer thin 1.1668-74 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Tenkan and kijun heading lower and at 1.1659 and 1.1686, respectively

• Spot currently pivoting around descending 200-HMA at 1.1643

• Option expiries in area today 1.1550-80 E1.2 bln, 1.1600-10 E1.6 bln below

• To upside 1.1635-95 total E4.1 bln, 1.1700-50 E3.9 bln

• These options and market holidays in Europe likely to keep trading quiet

• EUR/JPY 184.85-185.07 EBS, doing little, in 184.37-185.67 daily Ichi cloud

• EUR/GBP heavy, 0.8633-50 and towards 0.8621 low May 1, 0.8612 March 19

• E679 in option expiries today between 0.8675-85 strikes above

• EUR/CHF 0.9103-09 and lowest since 0.9094 on March 23

• Related comments , , , also
EUR/USD:


EUR/JPY:


EUR/CHF:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY still buoyant but optimism over an US-Iran deal biasing it down

• Asia 158.75-159.06 EBS so far following 158.96-159.23 range Friday

• Memorial Day holiday in the US, market holidays in Europe to keep mkt thin

• USD/JPY for now still holding around top of 156.37-158.93 daily Ichi cloud

• Spot below 158.99-159.05 wafter thin hourly Ichi cloud too, 100-HMA 159.01

• Support below from ascending 158.65 200-HMA, bounce from 158.75 early

• 158.59 low May 20, 158.30 May 15, then 157.27 May 14, May 6 low 155.00

• Rate diff on JGB-US Treasury 2s still on wide side, in 10s narrow

• Market looking at one Fed rate hike this year, maybe more, no cuts

• BOJ also expected to hike policy rate 0.25 bps in June

• In options, nearby expiries today 158.50/70 $764 mln, 158.95-159.05 $642 mln

• Just above between 159.20-30 total $1 bln, likely cap for now

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on US-Iran , , Fed

• US markets , , ,
USD/JPY:


WTI crude oil futures:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)