• NY opened near 1.1770 after 1.1744 traded overnight, pair dipped lower early

• 1.1755 was neared but buyers emerged after US Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs

• The US$ sold-off sharply on the headlines and US yields

rallied

• USD/CNH fell away from its 6.9061 high & gold , stocks

rallied

• EUR/USD spiked up to 1.1808 but the rally fizzled as US$ selling abated

• US$ firmed up, USD/CNH bounced upward and stocks erased some gains

• EUR/USD hit 1.1766 then neared 1.1780 late, traded up +0.10% late in the day

• Two consecutive daily dojis indicate pair is consolidating its recent drop, a bear signal

• Falling monthly RSI, hold below 10- & 21-DMAs are also bearish tech signals
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ING Research discusses EUR/USD outlook in the near-term.

"It’s not easy to estimate the impact on EUR/USD from a further oil rally, given the pair’s reduced sensitivity to oil in the past year. In our current model that takes 12-month rolling betas, another $5 rally in Brent means around 1% lower in EUR/USD, but that correlation often strengthens during oil shocks, and the risks are of an even larger selloff in the pair," ING notesa.

"In our view, this confirms the reluctance to price in geopolitical risks. Intuitively, it means greater downside risks for EUR/USD, which we believe can trade all the way down to 1.160 in a major escalation," ING adds.

• NY opened near 0.7050 after 21-DMA pierced, 9-session low of 0.7016 hit overnight

• AUD/USD neared 0.7040 early but the drop stalled then reversed quickly

• US$ sold after the US Supreme Court ruled against President Trump's tariffs

• USD/CNH fell below 6.8990 & gold , silver , stocks

rallied

• AUD/USD rallied above the 10-DMA, traded 0.7091, neared 0.7075 late, was up +0.25%

• Daily RSI diverged, bullish engulfing candle formed; are concerns for AUD/USD bears
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research summarizes its bias on the USD and EUR for the coming week.

"Given current conditions, we anticipate that broader geopolitical risks will play a more prominent role in influencing the USD rather than upcoming domestic data releases (US regional Fed surveys) and tax refunds. We maintain a moderately positive outlook on the USD for the coming week," ANZ notes.

"We think there is room for an unwind of recent EUR gains, especially if oil prices continue to rally in the week ahead, with key support at 1.169 and 1.165 (100- & 200-dma)," ANZ adds.

Whether the pound can successfully defend its recent technical floor depends heavily on the Bank of England pursuing a more hawkish stance despite cooling inflation and domestic growth.

GBP/USD enters the weekend with a slight bid, attempting to steady itself after U.S. core PCE data hinted at sticky inflation near 3%. This uptick in price pressure has notably recalibrated Fed expectations, with markets now pricing a June rate cut at 60%, down from 80% earlier this week, as per LSEG's IRPR.

While the primary driver of recent volatility has been dollar strength, the technical damage to cable is significant. The pair has shed nearly two big figures this week, leaving traders to lean on a critical support cluster. Immediate defense is found at 1.3453, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.3039-1.3867 move and the 200-day moving average at 1.3445. A sustained break below these levels, alongside the lower Bollinger Band at 1.3321, could signal a deeper bearish cycle.

On the topside, any relief rally faces stiff resistance. The 30-DMA at 1.3530 and the daily base line at 1.3594 act as immediate hurdles, followed by the 21-DMA at 1.3643.

Looking ahead, the risk profile remains skewed to the downside. Should upcoming UK data continue to show falling inflation and sluggish growth, the BoE’s remaining hawks may pivot toward a dovish bias, speeding up and perhaps deepening UK rate cuts. Such a shift would further strip away the pound’s interest rate yield advantage, potentially accelerating a move lower toward the January 19 low at 1.3321 and November 2025 lows just above 1.30.
Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

BNP Paribas Research discusses its USD/JPY forecast.

"We maintain our bullish USDJPY forecast of 160 by end 2026 versus a forward of 150, as we believe that Bank of Japan policy is behind the curve and Japan’s fiscal picture is worsening. Our FX forecasts remain bearish despite our recently revised BoJ policy path," BNPP notes.

"We now see the next hike in April and additional hikes every four to five months until a terminal rate of 2% is reached in Q4 2027. Previously we expected two hikes a year until the 2% terminal rate was reached by Q2 2028...We do not think this will be enough to strengthen the JPY, though, as FX has not lately been correlated with front-end rate differentials." BNPP adds.

Credit Agricole CIB Research highlights EUR/USD short-term and long-term fair values.

"Our short-term FX value analysis suggests that EUR/USD continues to trade at a premium relative to equilibrium value of 1.16 based on drivers like 2Y rate spread, box-yield spread and the ratio of European vs US stocks among others," CACIB notes.

"Our long-term fair value further suggests that EUR/USD is now trading above its equilibrium value of 1.1257 ...The fair value would have been even lower were it not for the improvement of the EUR relative external imbalances," CACIB adds.

• EUR/USD traded 1.1775 in Asia, sellers emerged on the back of broad-based US$ buying

• 1.1744 then traded in Europe's morning, NY opened near 1.1765, pair down -0.04% early

• Some US$ selling buoyed the pair, USD/CNH's slip from its high reinforced US$ selling

• Rallies in gold , silver also weighed on US$

• EUR/JPY rally into positive territory helped underpin EUR/USD's lift off its low

• EUR/USD held within Thursday's range & near the 61.8% Fib 1.1572-1.2084 & 55-DMA

• Pair is consolidating the drop from the Feb. 18 high ahead of key US economic reports

• US Dec. PCE, Q4 GDP, Feb. S&P Global PMIs, Feb. U of Michigan final due in NY
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Corrects typo inheadline)

• AUD/USD fell to a 9-session low of 0.7016 in Asia on firm US yields , US$

• The drop stalled, buying emerged as US$ buys abated while gold , silver rallied

• USD/CNH pulled back form its 6.9040 high & AUD/JPY turned positive

• AUD/USD hit 0.7066 in Europe's morning, NY openednear 0.7050, pair was down -0.15% early

• A daily doji candle formed which suggests investors may be indecisive

• AUD/USD's hold above the 21-DMA and rising monthly RSI gives bulls some comfort

• US Dec. PCE, Q4 GDP, Feb. S&P Global PMIs, Feb. U of Michigan final are risks in NY
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY remains bid, eyes on the cloud base (156.13), which is the first key topside level

• Latest leg higher has a geopolitical tint, with US-Iran tensions back on the radar

• Trump weighs initial limited strike to force Iran into nuclear deal - WSJ

• While JPY is a safe-haven, Japan's net-energy importer status leaves yen exposed to oil spikes

• Domestically, Japan's core inflation slowed to a 2yr low at 2%, meeting estimates

• This takes some urgency out of near-term BoJ hikes

• That said, if yen weakens materially from here, FX-driven imported inflation could become more relevant

• Still, cross-JPY remains a better avenue for expressing yen strength

• For USD/JPY, price action around 156.13 (cloud base) will be important
usdjpy DAILY CHART


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Feb 20 (Reuters) - The pound might take another hit at the end of next week (February 27) if voters in Thursday's Gorton and Denton by-election give a big thumbs down to the Labour Party's candidate Angeliki Stogia, and by extension Prime Minister Keir Starmer. A woeful showing for Labour - perhaps mirroring the meagre 11% vote share obtained in a Welsh parliamentary by-election last autumn - would be blamed on Starmer, and increase the risk of a GBP-negative Labour leadership challenge before the summer.

Labour's candidate got just over 50% of votes cast in Gorton and Denton at the 2024 general election, but next week could be a very different story. Bookmakers' odds and opinion polls suggest that the seat is likely to be won by either the Greens' Hannah Spencer or Reform UK's Matt Goodwin. Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi see a 47-50% chance of Starmer quitting by June 30.

The pound fell to a four-week low against the dollar and a two-month low against the euro on Thursday, with 1.3435 and 1.1426 marking the respective lows for GBP/USD and GBP/EUR.

Related:
GBPEUR


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD meets headwind around 0.7050 after extending north from 0.7016

• 0.7016 was Asian session base, and the lowest level since Feb 9

• Drop to 0.7016 was influenced by softer Asian stocks (AUD is risk-sensitive)

• Thursday's low was 0.7025, as safe-haven USD strengthened on US-Iran tensions

• Trump sets 10-15 day deadline for Iran deal. U.S. Q4 GDP data due at 1330 GMT

• Australian pension fund UniSuper says AUD undervalued, increases hedging

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable rises to 1.3466 as pound benefits from much better than expected UK data

• Jan retail sales up 1.8% MM vs 0.2% f/c; budget surplus GBP 30.4 bln vs 23.8 bln f/c

• Asia range was 1.3440-1.3471. Thursday's NY session range was 1.3435-1.3473

• 1.3435 = 4-week low, on US-Iran tensions. Trump sets 10-15 day deadline for Iran deal

• UK February flash PMIs due at 0930 GMT: services PMI f/c 53.5; mfg PMI f/c 51.5

• US Q4 GDP 1330 GMT. Rising UK youth unemployment tests govt over wage pledge

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Between Feb 20252 and Feb 2026 EUR/USD has posted a series of rising lows

• Break below Feb's 1.1766 low (1.1742 on Thursday) breaks bullish streak

• EUR/USD has dropped below 55-DMA at 1.1765 and 61.8% 2026 rise at 1.1767

• Traders established a very large $27 billion wager on a rise before this correction

• The correction required to lay foundation for future rally may be deep

• A drop below 1.1682 would probably result in a test of 2026 low at 1.1572

• The US dollar is far more likely to rise than fall

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD claws back from Fri low 0.7016 to last trade 0.7040

• Might yet resume rally, pending close above 21 DMA 0.7026

• That would buoy it amid broad USD strength before US core PCE

• If US data misses, AUD/USD could reach uptrend channel 0.7089

• One of Australia's largest pension funds bullish AUD

• UniSuper says AUD undervalued due to rate differentials
AUD


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD slides 0.6% in Asia ahead of weekend as U.S.-Iran tensions escalate

• Risk aversion weighs as Trump sets 10-15 day deadline for Iran deal

• Nikkei drops 1.3%, oil extends rally after closing at a six-month high Thu

• AUD drops from an early 0.7062 high, breaks overnight low of 0.70245

• Weighed by p/taking on crosses; AUD/JPY -0.45%, GBP/AUD up from 19-mth low

• Support at 0.7022-25, 50% of 0.6897-0.71465 rally & 21-day MA gives way

• Next support 0.6990-95, resistance 0.7060, 0.7090; Asia range 0.7016-0.7062

• Hawkish RBA expectations likely to limit AUD drop; Jan CPI key on Wed key
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD sputters to 1.3443, testing 200 DMA support again

• Fri close below 1.3445 will add even more bearish pressure

• Break of 200 DMA will also erode Ichimoku cloud support

• From there, 100 DMA at 1.3394 will be at risk of a breach

• Downturn driven by another bout of USD strength led by USD/JPY

• Risk sentiment shaky amid US warning over Iran
GBP


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/CNH opens Fri higher at 6.8995 vs close 6.8980; neutral bias

• But may dribble back down as USD/JPY recoils below 155.00

• A Friday close below 6.8975 will reinstate bearish technical bias

• Bollinger downtrend channel if validated will cue new 2-1/2 year low

• US weekly jobs spurred USD bids, before more crucial data ahead

• US core PCE and Q4 GDP due Friday may have more impact
CNH


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Increased geopolitical tensions, firm US yields sends USD broadly higher

• US economic data recently strong, suggests Fed rate cut view overdone

• USD/JPY to 155.34 EBS high yesterday, Asia 154.91-155.20 so far

• Back above 154.94 ascending 100-DMA, towards 156.13-157.37 daily Ichi cloud?

• Tech support from ascending hourly Ichimoku cloud between 153.78-154.26

• Gotobi Tokyo fix, long Tokyo weekend to greater Japan importer demand

• Some exporter, other sales eyed up top but enough to cap?

• Option expiries today larger to downside today, to help base USD?

• 154.00 $1 bln, 154.35 $669 mln, 154.95-155.00 $1.3 bln, 155.50-55 $546 mln

• Trend still for narrower but JGB-US Tsy rate differentials in bounce mode

• News of Japan investments in US commencing also USD supportive

• Related comments , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Fed , US data , US-Iran
USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD inches up to 1.3471 after ending Thurs at 1.3462

• Strong technical support appearing, prompts short-covering

• Thurs bounce off 200 DMA 1.3445 may be crucial turning point

• 200 DMA reinforced by Ichimoku cloud support around 1.3453

• Not too far below, 100 DMA at 1.3394 also a key support level

• US core PCE, Q4 GDP due Friday are likely next catalysts for USD
GBP


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

ING Research discusses the thesis of rotation out of the US and into Europe, and EUR/USD outlook.

"A look at year-to-date equity benchmark performance shows European bourses handily outperforming those of the US. In dollar terms, the Eurostoxx 50 has performed nearly twice as well as the S&P 500. The thesis of rotation out of the US and into Europe has yet to be fully backed up by US TIC data,.." ING notes.

If the dollar weakens any further, we can see FX markets dominating short-term interest rate markets and a European Central Bank rate cut being priced with greater conviction. We do not see those FOMC minutes justifying EUR/USD trading substantially under 1.18. And we remain happy with a forecast that EUR/USD ends March near 1.19," ING adds.

The dollar index extended its week-long climb, hitting its highest level since late January on haven demand tied to the U.S. Middle East military buildup and a brief uptick in Treasury yields after FOMC minutes on Wednesday and a dip in jobless claims on Thursday. President Donald Trump warned at the Board of Peace meeting that Iran must strike a meaningful deal with the U.S. or face negative consequences, while signaling roughly a 10-day timeline amid a major U.S. military buildup in the region. WTI held near a six-month high on U.S.–Iran tensions and last week’s sharp drop in U.S. crude inventories. Treasury yields were steady after the trade deficit widened sharply in December, the February Philly Fed topped expectations, weekly jobless claims dipped, reversing gains in the New York afternoon as shares retreated. Markets await December PCE, Q4 GDP and February flash PMI on Friday.

The U.S. Supreme Court decision on tariffs can come as early as Friday. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed is near its mandates with rates close to neutral, the labor market remains resilient though softening and that recent political attacks threaten Fed independence.

Separately, consumer powerhouse Walmart forecast annual sales and profit below Wall Street expectations.

EUR/USD slid initially on firmer U.S. yields and dollar strength, hitting 1.1742 before rebounding above its 55-day MA at 1.1761 as USD momentum faded.

GBP/USD fell as soft UK data and renewed political pressure weighed, with fiscal-risk jitters keeping gilts volatile ahead of Friday’s UK retail sales and key U.S. data. The pair hovered near key moving averages and Fibonacci levels that threaten further weakness if broken.

AUD/USD bounced from an eight-session low of 0.7025 as early dollar strength faded, finishing modestly above its 21-DMA ahead of Friday’s Australia PMIs.

USD/JPY held firm ahead of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s policy speech and Japan CPI on Friday as haven and yield support buoyed the dollar. A drop beneath nearby 21-day and 100-day moving averages reinstates a bearish bias.

Treasury yields were largely flat keeping the 2s-10s curve unchanged at +61.9bps.

The S&P 500 fell 0.47%.

WTI oil rose 2% amid U.S.-Iran tensions and a drop in weekly inventories.

Gold was flat while copper dropped 1.0%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.07%, USD/JPY +0.01%, GBP/USD -0.20%, AUD/USD +0.21%, DXY +0.13%, EUR/JPY -0.08%, GBP/JPY -0.20%, AUD/JPY +0.20%.(Editing by Terence Gabriel Reporting by Robert Fullem)

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the scope for SNB intervention.

"The CHF remains close to its strongest real levels since 2011 ,What is key is that EUR/CHF is holding up just above 0.91, about 1.5% lower than the averages of last October and January. " CACIB notes.

"While the SNB is surely watching those developments closely despite no stepping-up in anti-CHF jawboning, it may also have to consider the signalling effect of eventually defending a more important psychological level such as 0.90," CACIB adds.

• Ether rallied toward the 10-DMA, 1986.91 traded, sellers then emerged

• Ether turned lower & broke Wednesday's low, hit a 7-session low of 1906.81

• The cryptocurrency's price action has technicals maintaining their bearish bias

• A daily inverted hammer candle formed & the 10-DMA helps to cap rallies

• Falling daily, monthly RSIs indicate that downward momentum is in place

• Bear pennant continuation pattern on daily charts reinforces the bearish tech signals

• Break of the pennant base completes the pattern, suggests 1000.00 may be neared
eth


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)