• USD net spec G10 long pared by $2.77bn in Apr 15-21 period; $IDX +0.34% in period

• Mideast conflict news holds sway; post-period higher peace prospects weigh on USD

• EUR$ -0.4% in period; specs +15.3k contracts now +41.3k; oil up, lower EU growth weighed

• $JPY +0.38%: specs -11.3k contracts now -94.5k; oil bid, less-hawkish BoJ view lifts $JPY

• GBP$ -0.46%; specs +2.7k contracts now -52k; Mideast, UK inflation trump high rate view

• $CAD -0.74%; specs +19.4k contracts now -58.8k; rising oil lifts CAD toward early war lvls

• AUD$ +0.37%; specs -0.3k contracts now 64.8k; oil rise, hawkish RBA keeps AUD bid

• Mideast uncertainties likely to keep FX volatile; USD following oil directionally

Majors w/IMM Performance Chart:


IMM Position Table as of Apr 21:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1700 after 1.1674 traded overnight, rally extended in NY

• Reports US, Iran delegates to meet in Pakistan for talks rallied risk

• USD, US yields , USD/CNH, oil moved down on the reports

• High beta currencies, gold , stocks gained as safe-haven assets faded

• EUR/USD hit a 2-session high of 1.1721 then dipped, neared 1.1715 late, was up +0.27%

• Hold above the 1.1650-1.1680 support & rising daily, monthly RSIs gives bulls comfort

• Should that support zone give way supports near 1.1580/90 & March low are in focus
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7135 after AUD/USD traded 0.7115 overnight, choppy action early

• Pair rallied to 0.7151 then neared 0.7125 but bull then took control on upbeat risk

• Reports Iran, US delegates to meet in Pakistan for talks fueled the rally in riskier assets

• Oil , USD, US yields & USD/CNH all traded downward on the news

• Gold , silver rallied & stocks put in solid gains on hopes for peace

• AUD/USD rallied to 0.7155 then dipped slightly, the pair traded up +0.30% late in the day

• Rising daily, monthly RSIs, piercing of the 10-DMA give techs a bullish lean
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research previews next week's April ECB meeting.

"FX investors will focus on the outcome of the April ECB meeting looking for indications that the latest developments may have forced the Governing Council to refocus its attention on the growth-negative effects of the Middle East crisis and, as a result, soften its hitherto hawkish policy rhetoric. We further note that European business sentiment data has deteriorated notably since the start of the Iran war, and this has highlighted the vulnerability of the Eurozone economy to a lengthy period of high energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty," CACIB notes.

"Turning to the FX market reaction, we start by observing that while EUR/USD has come under renewed selling pressure of late, it continues to trade well above the lows it hit in the earlier stages of the Iran war. We expect that the longer the US- Iran standoff drags on, the likelier economically damaging policies become to ration energy consumption in the Eurozone. A potential softening of the ECB’s hitherto hawkish rhetoric next week could also weigh on the EUR," CACIB adds.

• USD/JPY directionless as geo backdrop fails to provide a clear catalyst

• Rangebound chop likely to continue in the near-term

• Pullbacks remain well-supported with equities, yields and oil all firmer

• Though appetite to push through 160 is clearly lacking - intervention risk keeps topside in check

• However, with volatility triggers yet to be hit, the line in the sand may be higher

• BoJ next week - hold well-telegraphed via sources, so focus will be on the rhetoric

• Openness to a June hike lifts JPY. Failure to do so leaves 160 exposed to a break
USDJPY hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Goldman Sachs Research previews next week's April ECB policy meeting.

"Governing Council members have signalled that they do not need to rush into a decision, and a hold at next week's meeting is therefore highly likely. That said, the communication has consistently flagged that inflation risks remain to the upside and that the ECB needs to act if signs of inflation persistence emerge," GS notes.

"The tone of the press conference is likely to mirror the recent communication, with President Lagarde noting that the Governing Council will watch for second-round effects and stands ready to act to ensure inflation returns to 2% over the medium term.

Looking ahead, we maintain our baseline of 25bp hikes in June and September to a peak deposit rate of 2.5%," GS adds.

Sterling is poised for a cautious recovery against the dollar, as markets balance upbeat retail sales data against a backdrop of, for now, diminishing geopolitical volatility and persistent inflationary pressures.

The currency managed a notable rebound from overnight lows of 1.3455, bolstered by stronger-than-expected UK retail sales figures that provided a much-needed bullish lift to sentiment. Despite today's bounce, dour Bank of England inflationexpectations are set to remain a primary driver, potentially inhibiting further gains for the pound even if current Middle East tensions begin to abate.

Nevertheless, the UK's inflation-growth dilemma remains a significant concern. With Brent crude oil prices hovering around $100/bbl and forecasts indicating sustained high levels for the foreseeable future, as oil markets normalize, the cost-of-living crisis is likely to hinder economic growth.

Market expectations reflect this "higher for longer" scenario, with LSEG's IRPR discounting approximately 58 basis points of BoE rate hikes anticipated starting in the second half of 2026. As a result, upside potential for GBP/USD may be capped near early-February highs just above 1.37.

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD faces immediate resistance at the 10-DMA of 1.3518 and the daily cloud top at 1.3544. On the downside, initial support is provided by the bruised 100-DMA at 1.3461, while more critical support lies at the 200-DMA at 1.3415 and daily cloud base at 1.3396.
GBP$ Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan Research maintains a bearish bias on GBP ahead of the UK local elections in May.

"UK political risk has been in focus for GBP, and the prominence of carry strategies will mean the sensitivity of GBP to the timeline for any Labour labour leadership contest will matter. The Mandelson vetting issue in focus this week is continuing to lay the groundwork for a potential Labour leadership challenge after the UK local elections," JPM notes.

"We have been bearish GBP despite the carry advantage in DM, given risks from energy importer status, politics and fiscal space vs. other G10 high yielders like AUD, NOK. We gauge scenario returns on potential PM candidates and see EUR/GBP ranging from above 0.89 on fiscal expansion compared to 0.85 on a UK political continuity outcome.

Short GBP/SEK: GBP/SEK is pro-carry, more beta neutral and can benefit from central bank and domestic data divergence, short GBP positioning, while offering Iran conflict asymmetry and cheap valuations vs fair value," JPM adds.

ANZ Research discusses USD/JPY outlook around next week's April BoJ meeting.

"Market pricing for an April BoJ hike has retreated over the month and our base case is that the BoJ will hold at the 28- 29 April meeting, with a possible hike pushed to June.

If the BoJ remains on hold, as we expect, even a mildly hawkish message may not materially strengthen the JPY, given that USD/JPY has recently diverged from rate differentials and traded in a tight 158–160 range through April...Risks of intervention in the currency by local authorities rise around the 162–164 zone in our view because: 1) bearish positioning is far from being extended when we look at 2024 levels, and 2) USD/JPY has risen from 155 to 159 over the last seven weeks factoring in the negative terms-of-trade shock," ANZ notes.

The key risk is a surprise 25bp hike. As a hike is not priced-in, a sharp intraday rally could take USD/JPY materially lower (plausibly below 158). But follow-through would depend on guidance around the future pace of normalisation," ANZ adds.

• Gold slides below 21-DMA at $4700/oz to $4657 on Apr 24

• Gold fell roughly $1100/oz after similar break in March

• In March gold based ahead 200-DMA currently $4245/oz

• Gold surrendered almost 61.8% May 2025-Jan 26 gains

• Gains after intensification war partly undone by Iran war

• Gold rallies were preceding USD drops, rise may herald

• When math meets markets: MSCI's milestone puts risk currencies on notice

•
Gold


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 29 pip range thus far Friday; 1.3455-1.3484

• 1.3448-1.3518 was Thursday range (1.3448 is the lowest level since April 13)

• Stock markets are too high and set to fall, BoE deputy governor Breeden tells BBC

• UK companies ramp up selling price expectations, BoE DMP survey shows

• Patrick Maguire in The Times says UK 'Cabinet knows that Keir Starmer is done for'

• Maguire moots possibility of new PM in place for Labour Party conference (Sept 27-30)

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Corrects typo line 4 )

• FX option trade flows can offer clues about FX sentiment and direction

• There's been increased interest to sell higher strike AUD/USD options over recent sessions

• Dealers say its most likely unwinding of bullish structures that have already reaped rewards

• This profit taking doesn't mean that AUD/USD can't eventually trade higher, maybe just not right now

• A recent report from DB research expects USD decline to deepen and AUD/USD to reach 0.7600 this year

• Related - Complacency to caution: FX options edge up into cen-bank heavy week
AUD=D3


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY hovering under the 160 level, a potential line-in-the-sand for Japan

• There has been a 159.61-159.84 range, on Friday so far, according to EBS data

• There is some speculation spot could break above 160 on Friday after Asia's close

• Japan renews FX warning, ready for 'decisive action' with US coordination

• Recall spot has failed on four occasions in April to register a close below 158.49 Fibo

• 158.49 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 152.10-160.47 2026 (EBS) rise

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is well below +0.5 (relationship broken)

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD has traded a 20 pip range thus far Friday; 0.7115-0.7135

• 0.7115 is 4.4 pips above Thursday's base (lowest level since April 14)

• Safe-haven USD supported by Middle East uncertainty

• AUD/NZD rises towards 1.22 again (AUD/NZD was last at 1.22 in 2013)

• Australian March CPI data due on April 29: jump expected, to 4.7% (Reuters poll)

• Even hotter print would increase probability of another RBA rate hike in May

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 17 pip range thus far Friday; 1.3455-1.3472

• 1.3472 is three pips below the double-day low on Monday-Tuesday

• Thursday low was 1.3448 (lowest level since April 13) on safe-haven USD demand

• UK retail sales up 0.7% in March vs 0.1% median estimate from Reuters poll

• Stock markets are too high and set to fall, BoE deputy governor Breeden tells BBC

• Trump threatens Starmer with "big tariff" over tech tax, Telegraph reports

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD falls under 200-DMA at 1.1676 to 1.1674 but hasn't closed below it

• Close below may encourage traders - currently betting on a rise - to sell

• Target for a minor correction of March April rise is 1.1681

• The influential 21-DMA is 1.1662

• Targets for a deeper drop 1.1629, 1.1577 and 1.1503

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.2% Fri, potential U.S.-Iran re-escalation impeding risk appetite

• Trump rules out nuclear strike; Lebanon-Israel ceasefire extended

• Israels threats, Tehran air defence systems activation fuel anxiety

• Pivotal AU Q1 CPI update due Apr 29, will re-focus traders on hawkish RBA

• Futures market pricing currently implies 79.4% probability of May OCR hike

• AUD continues to grind lower without major support in close by

• Range Asia 0.7115-35, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD unchanged in Asia after closing 0.25% lower on Thursday

• Elusive Middle East peace deal, tepid risk appetite weigh on GBP

• Dismal Confederation of British Industry survey highlights weak economy

• UK PMI, CBI industry surveys show record price gauge increases

• Stagflation fears hit GBP; BoE rate rises likely while economy slows

• Traders now see a 75% chance of a rate hike from BoE by June

• Support 1.3430, 1.3380, resistance 1.3500-10, 1.3535-45

• Thursday range 1.3448-1.3518, Asia range 1.3458-1.3472
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD flat Fri in subdued trading as U.S.-Iran contemplation continues

• Pivotal AU Q1 CPI update due Apr 29, will re-focus traders on hawkish RBA

• Futures market pricing currently implies 80.2% probability of May hike

• Trump rules out nuclear attack, says Lebanon-Israel ceasefire extended

• Tehran air defence systems activation, Israel threats keep markets on edge

• Range Asia 0.7128-35, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 1.4%, hitting their lowest level since April 8

• Gold prices fell to a more than one-week low on Thursday, pressured by stronger dollar, and worries that inflationary fallout from the Middle East conflict could keep U.S. interest rates higher for longer [GOL/]

• Northern Star Resources falls 2.2% and Evolution Mining sheds 1.2%

• Sub-index down 4% YTD vs the broader market's 0.5% rise

(Reporting by Shruti Agarwal in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY pushed up to 159.84 EBS yesterday, Asia 159.66-78 so far

• Seems pattern of USD buys ahead of weekends continuing

• Market wary of fresh Middle East developments as market rests

• US-Iran impasse on-going, ceasefire precarious, both sides rattling sabres

• Japan FX intervention still seen real however but for how long?

• Any 160.00 break higher could see quick move to 160.47 March 30 high

• This especially without any real intervention, jaw-boning just won't cut it

• Japanese importer demand higher today with Gotobi tomorrow, good support

• Hourly Ichimoku tenkan/kijun at 159.57/58, hourly cloud 159.21-35

• In options, expiries today at 159.00-10 $906 mln, 160.00 $1 bln

• JGB-US Treasury rate diffs have widened a bit but still near recent lows

• Related comments , , ,

• And , also , on the Fed ,

• US markets , , ,

• On US economy , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.5% from Thur 0.71655 high, remains acutely sensitive to Iran news

• Activation of air defence systems across Tehran spooking markets Thur

• AUD grinding lower ahead of weekend, no major support within close proximity

• Pivotal AU Q1 CPI update due Apr 29, will re-focus traders on hawkish RBA

• U.S. initial jobless claims 214k, S&P composite PMI 52.0 (polls: 210k, 50.5)

• Overnight range 0.71106-63, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Barclays Research adopts a bearish bias on GBP going into UK local elections in May.

"UK political risks have resurfaced with the latest twist of the Mandelson affair. For now Gilts are taking their cue from the decline in energy prices; that said, risks from a more-expansionary fiscal policy after the elections should weigh on the pound for some time. A modest re-widening of the GBP's fiscal premium closer to levels prevailing in November points to EURGBP trading closer to 0.88 in the near term," Barclays notes.

"On a more-positive note, the government appears much keener on a more meaningful pivot towards the EU than previous pronouncements. The considerable procedural obstacles before such an intent can translate into actionable policies with tangible economic benefits, however, suggests this is more of a longer-term consideration. The planned UK-EU summit in late June or early July could be the first signpost in that process, should it materialize," Barclays adds.

• GBP$ dips in NY afternoon trade, -0.2% at 1.3473; NorAm range 1.3518-1.3448

• Reports of Iranian air defenses activated lift oil, stirs USD haven bid

• GBP$ melts lower as risk broadly lower; UST yields higher, equities sliding

• Mideast in state of flux; no news of negotiations, oil flow thru strait diminished

• Next week's Fed, BoE meetings are likely to yield no rate changes; focus on Mideast

• GBP$ supt at bruised 100-DMA at 1.3460, 1.3448 Thurs low, 1.3415 flat 200-DMA

• Res 1.3500 psychological lcl, 1.3518 Thursday high, 1.3544 daily cloud top

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)