• USD/JPY trading just below 145.55 peak daily Ichimoku cloud

• Japanese charting system really matters for the yen

• Specs are sitting on massive yen long position

• Close above 145.55 likely to trigger a short squeeze

• Short squeezes are the disorderly and rapid unwind of losing bets

• Top of 20-daily Bollingers (145.88) is rising allowing for bigger gains

•
USDJPY

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable falls to 1.3383 as safe-haven dollar strengthens on Trump-Iran risk

• Trump: "I may do it. I may not do it". 1.3383 is lowest level since May 20

• 1.3401 was Wednesday's low, after USD rose on hawkish guidance from Powell

• Powell sees "meaningful" inflation ahead. 1.3476 was pre-Powell high

• Ahead of Fed hold, Trump mused about appointing himself to lead Fed

• BoE is expected to leave Bank Rate at 4.25% at 1100 GMT; 7-2 MPC vote likely

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY off early Asia to 144.75 before bouncing later to 145.22 EBS

• Trading choppy and on thin side with US on holiday tonight

• Foray into now narrowing 144.55-145.07 hourly Ichimoku cloud rejected

• Resistance above from 145.44 high yesterday

• 144.88-145.55 daily Ichimoku cloud too, top has held since May 12

• Multiple forays into cloud rejected ahead of top, to cap still?

• Option expiries at 145.00, 146.00 today, to help contain action?

• JPY crosses heavy amidst USD strength elsewhere

• EUR/JPY 166.11-37 EBS in Asia, tracking away from 167.64 high Tuesday

• GBP/JPY 193.95-194.91, down a couple of legs from 196.83 Tuesday

• AUD/JPY 93.78-94.46, still holding between 100/200-HMAs at 93.39/96.06

• CHF/JPY indicated at 177.15, also off leg from 178.23 Tuesday

• Related comment , also , on crosses

• On flows , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

SocGen highlights a surprising trend in the ongoing de-dollarization process: while the USD’s share in global FX reserves has continued to decline, major reserve currencies like the EUR, GBP, JPY, and CNY have not benefited. Instead, the gains have gone to gold and a diverse mix of smaller, mostly Asian and Nordic currencies.

Key Points:

USD Share Falls Below 50%:

• Since Q3 2023, the USD’s share of global FX reserves has dropped by 5.8%, falling below the 50% threshold.

• This marks a continuation of the de-dollarization trend that paused during the COVID crisis but resumed in late 2023.

Gold as the Main Beneficiary:

• Gold holdings rose by 7.9% to 23.3% of total global reserves.

• Central banks are clearly turning to gold as a preferred diversification tool amid heightened geopolitical and inflation uncertainty.

Major Reserve Currencies See Decline:

• The EUR, GBP, JPY, and CNY all saw their respective shares decline in the same period.

• This indicates that traditional reserve alternatives to the USD are not seen as attractive or stable enough in the current macro environment.

Rise of 'Other' Currencies:

• The ‘Others’ category in the IMF’s reserve classification—likely including Asian and Nordic currencies—has seen a rise.

• These currencies may be perceived as safer or more neutral amid rising geopolitical fragmentation.

Conclusion:

SocGen notes that the global push to diversify away from the USD is not benefiting traditional major currencies. Instead, gold and select smaller currencies are attracting reserve flows, highlighting a broader shift in the global reserve architecture. This reflects a diversification strategy focused on neutrality and risk mitigation rather than a reallocation toward existing reserve heavyweights.

• AUD/USD firms slightly; AU unemployment steady at 4.1%, full-time jobs lift

• Full-time jobs +38.7k jobs SA, despite total jobs -2.5k (poll +22.5k)

• Geopolitical uncertainty remains key concern as Middle East war escalates

• Bloomberg news reporting U.S. officials preparing for strike on Iran

• Fed Chair Powell anticipates tariff-driven price increases in months ahead

• Weakening attempts to break 0.6550 resistance concerning for AUD bulls

• Range early Asia 0.6480-0.65105, support 0.6447 0.6390, resistance 0.6552
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Aurelia Metals fall 34.4% to A$0.2, set for their worst day since mid-September 2025, if losses hold

• Earlier in the day, the gold and base metal explorer hit its lowest level since April 9

• Co sees gold production between 35 - 45 k ozs for FY26, lower than FY25 production forecast of between 40 and 50 k ozs

• Sees FY26 operating costs for Cobar Region between A$255 million ($165.78 million) to A$285 million higher than FY25 estimate between A$160 million to A$180 million

• About 23 million shares change hands in their busiest day seen since early June 2023

• Shares up ~17%, YTD

($1 = 1.5382 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by John Biju in Bengaluru)

• Off 0.05% after closing down 0.05%, with the U.S. dollar up just 0.05%

• UK inflation came in as expected yesterday, easing to a still high 3.4%

• BOE to keep rates on hold amid the global volatility - rate bias still down

• The market's focus will be on the tone of the Monetary Policy Summary

• Charts - 5, 10, & 21-day moving averages, crest/fall, momentum studies, ease

• Neutral 21-day Bolli bands - the daily signals show a negative bias

• Yesterday's 1.3476 high, then Tuesday's 1.3577 top are the first resistances

• 1.3395 lower 21-day Bolli and 1.3386 0.5% May/June rise likely resilient

• 1.3386 0.5%, and 1.3328 0.618% of the May-June rise are next Fibo supports
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Off 0.05%, after closing steady with the U.S. dollar up 0.05%

• European ministers to hold nuclear talks with Iran on Friday - source says

• Trump keeps the world guessing about US military action on Iran

• Iran may find it easier to find a compromise without Trump's presence

• Charts - daily momentum studies crest, 10 & 21-day moving averages rise

• 21-day Bollinger bands climb - daily charts retain a modest topside bias

• 1.1424 21-day moving average, then the 1.1372 June 6 base initial support

• Yesterday's 1.1530 top, then last week's 1.1632 2025 high, first resistance

• Euro resilient - uptrend in place while 1.1424 21-DMA holds on the close

• 1.1450 891mln, 1.1475 1.162 BLN, and 1.1500 1.072 BLN close June 19 strikes
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.6% from Tue 0.6467 low; Fed holds, indicates cuts data dependent

• Caveat to 50 bps in cuts by year end: how tariffs impact inflation

• Fed Chair Powell anticipates tariff-driven price increases in months ahead

• Trump calls Powell stupid ahead FOMC, mulls self-appointment as Fed Chair

• U.S.-Iran tension continues to be key concern as Middle East war escalates

• Weakening attempts to break 0.6550 resistance concerning for AUD bulls

• AU employment 0130 GMT Thur, Reuters poll: +22.5k jobs, 4.1% unemployment

• Overnight range 0.64865-0.6537, support 0.6447 0.6390, resistance 0.6552
AUD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

CIBC reacts to today’s June FOMC decision by highlighting the Fed’s steady rate stance and a modest reduction in the projected easing path. The updated dot plot still reflects two cuts for 2024 but shows fewer cuts in 2026, along with growing internal disagreement. Broader uncertainty around trade, fiscal policy, and geopolitics continues to cloud the Fed’s outlook.

Key Points:

Fed Holds Steady, Slightly Narrows Easing Path:

• The Fed maintained rates at current levels.

• The June SEP median still points to two cuts in 2024, consistent with March.

• However, the overall cycle now shows 100bps of cuts, down from 125bps previously, as the 2026 dot was reduced by one cut.

Greater Division Among Fed Members:

• There is now more disagreement within the FOMC, with some calling for no cuts in 2024.

• The distribution widens significantly in 2026, reflecting diverging views on long-run policy needs.

Neutral Rate and Economic Projections:

• Median neutral rate estimate unchanged at 3.0%, but with a wide range of individual views.

• Forecast revisions include downgrades to GDP and labor market strength and a slightly higher inflation trajectory—all largely anticipated.

Uncertainty Still Reigns:

• The Fed’s outlook remains hampered by:

  • Unsettled trade policy and legal ambiguity around tariff authority and tax funding

  • Geopolitical risks and potential oil price shocks

• These uncertainties contribute to a paralysis in policy clarity, even as inflation and employment data evolve.

Conclusion:

CIBC views today’s FOMC outcome as a reflection of policy caution amid heightened uncertainty. While the Fed continues to signal two cuts this year, reduced forward easing and rising internal divergence show growing discomfort with a consistent narrative. Markets may remain data-dependent and sensitive to geopolitical or trade-related developments, as Fed guidance stays tentative.

(Corrects typos in headline)

• EUR/USD traded 1.1485-1.1530 in NY's morning, was near 1.1500 into the Fed decision

• 1.1530 traded immediately after the Fed statement as the US$ & yields traded soft

• Yields, US$ firmed up however, EUR/USD swung wildly as the announcement was digested

• 1.1500 was neared then EUR/USD rallied towards 1.1525 then back near 1.1510

• EUR/USD traded up +0.28% at time of writing which had technicals lean bullish

• Rising RSIs and EUR/USD's hold above the rising 10-DMA are bullish signs
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Corrects typo in headline)

• NY opened near 0.6500 after 0.6470 traded overnight, pair neared 0.6485 early

• Buyers emerged as US$ &US yields traded softly, 0.6524 traded

• US$ firmed however, AUD/USD slid, pair sat near 0.6515 into the Fed decision

• Pair swung wildly after the Fed, hit 0.6537, neared 0.6510 then rallied toward 0.6530

• AUD/USD traded up +0.81% at the early stages of Powell's presser

• Techs leaned bullish; RSIs are rising & pair traded above the 10- & 21-DMAs
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Ether traded close to flat Wednesday ahead of the Fed's meeting result

• The US dollar and Ether typically have a positive correlation with each other

• The correlation fell apart after the dollar rallied sharply off May's low

• Since mid May the US$ has fallen but Ether held steady & consolidated gains

• If the correlation reasserts itself Ether could be in store for a big move

• Fed meeting risk looms, if no dovish lean emerges the US$ may rally sharply

• Ether may then end its consolidation if the positive correlation takes hold

• The up trend off the April monthly low may then resume
eth


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

BofA expects the Bank of England to keep rates on hold at Thursday’s June meeting with a 7-2 vote split. While the tone may lean dovish, April's higher inflation data will likely prevent any significant easing shift. GBP downside appears limited in the near term due to positioning, seasonality, and already elevated trade-weighted levels, though medium-term prospects remain constructive.

Key Points:

BoE Policy Outlook:

• No change in Bank Rate expected, with a 7-2 vote split (two members favoring cuts).

• The BoE is likely to maintain cautious forward guidance, reiterating that “monetary policy is not on a pre-set path.”

Inflation and Optionality:

• April inflation surprise will limit pressure for immediate easing.

• MPC will likely wait to assess:

  • Persistence of April’s inflation uptick

  • Impact on inflation expectations and wage growth

  • Growth and inflation effects from upcoming tariffs

Dovish Risk, But Not Aggressive:

• The vote split could skew dovish if more members express concerns about weakening macro data.

• However, BofA expects no overt shift away from gradualism in policy stance.

GBP Market Dynamics:

• GBP underperformance over the past month has been driven by soft UK macro data, weak seasonals, and bearish technicals.

• The GBP TWI is near post-Brexit highs, which may cap short-term upside.

• Despite recent Middle East risks, GBP/USD positioning is not extreme relative to broader G10, reducing the chance of sharp moves on the decision.

Medium-Term View:

• BofA remains constructive on GBP over the medium term.

• Seasonal tailwinds at the start of H2 2025 could support the currency, provided geopolitical and macro risks stabilize.

Conclusion:

BofA expects a steady BoE outcome with a slightly dovish tilt but limited FX impact. A lack of forward guidance change and no press conference mean market reaction will hinge on statement nuances. While GBP may stay rangebound near term, medium-term tailwinds remain in place, with stronger seasonal support likely emerging in Q3.

• EUR/USD option risk reversals were sending warning shots to EUR bulls

• Signalled EUR/USD topside fatigue and growing risk of EUR/USD setbacks

• Their topside over downside risk premiums have taken a big hit this week

• Benchmark 1-month expiry 25 delta risk reversals now 0.25 for USD calls

• That's from 0.6 USD puts Friday and 5-yr high 1.35 USD puts early April

• There's also been increased demand for EUR/USD downside strikes, outright

• These are all now demanding an additional volatility risk premium

• They would increase in value should EUR/USD extend its most recent losses

• FX Options wrap - EUR warning, hedging uncertainty, Fed risk
EUR/USD FXO risk reversals

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

MUFG expects the Fed to keep policy unchanged at today’s June FOMC meeting while reiterating that rates remain in restrictive territory. The dot plot is expected to stay largely unchanged, with two cuts projected for 2025 and 2026, and one in 2027. The dovish risk lies in potentially pulling the 2027 cut forward to 2026, while the long-run neutral rate could drift slightly higher.

Key Points:

Policy to Stay on Hold:

• Fed to maintain current rates, emphasizing that policy remains restrictive and appropriate given inflation risks.

Dot Plot Projections:

• 2025: Median dot to show 2 cuts

• 2026: Median dot to show 2 cuts

• 2027: 1 cut expected, but a dovish risk is that this cut could be pulled into 2026, resulting in 3 cuts for that year

• Long-run rate: Possible upward drift, though not a central expectation

Communication Focus:

• Fed will likely reiterate that rate cuts are still on the horizon but contingent on further inflation progress

• Emphasis on patience and data-dependence remains intact

Market Impact:

• A broadly unchanged dot plot would signal policy continuity, keeping markets anchored to a slow-cut trajectory.

• Any dovish tweaks (e.g., pulling forward a 2027 cut) could modestly weigh on the USD and front-end yields.

Conclusion:

MUFG expects today’s FOMC to be steady and largely uneventful, with the Fed reinforcing its restrictive stance while maintaining a gradual path to easing. The dot plot should show no major shifts, but a slight dovish tilt could emerge if the 2027 cut is brought forward—keeping the door open to flexibility in 2026 if conditions allow.

Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to maintain its current policy stance at today’s June FOMC meeting, emphasizing high uncertainty and balanced risks. While inflation and growth projections may be adjusted slightly, the Fed is likely to signal no imminent move, with rate cuts deferred until December as tariff effects play out.

Key Points:

No Policy Change Expected:

• The Fed is expected to stay on hold, reiterating that uncertainty remains elevated and risks are two-sided.

• Chair Powell will likely downplay the significance of projections, stressing they remain highly contingent.

SEP Forecast Adjustments:

• 2025 inflation median likely nudged up to 3.0%

• GDP growth revised down to 1.5%

• Unemployment forecast up to 4.5%

Dot Plot Outlook:

• 2025: Two cuts to 3.875%, though Goldman expects a close 10–9 split among participants

• 2026: Two additional cuts to 3.375%

• 2027: One cut to 3.125%

• Long-run neutral rate unchanged at 3.0%

Tariff Assumptions and Timing:

• While tariff assumptions have risen, the recent de-escalation and soft inflation reports should temper forecast revisions.

• Goldman sees first rate cut in December, followed by two more in 2026.

• Peak summer tariff effects on inflation will still be too fresh for a cut earlier in the year.

Conclusion:

Goldman expects the June FOMC to hold rates steady and project a cautious, gradual easing path, beginning in December. While SEP adjustments may suggest modest deterioration in the 2025 outlook, the Fed will avoid bold moves and emphasize ongoing uncertainty. USD impact likely muted unless Powell signals less caution than expected.

• AUD/USD rallied 0.6470-0.6512 overnight as US$ slid on softer yields

• Sellers emerged, NY opened near 0.6490 pair traded up only +0.25% i n early action

• USD/CNH rally off its low,, AUD/JPY turn lower & gold's
drop weighed

• AUD/USD fell below the 10-DMA but still traded above the 21-DMA

• Daily inverted hammer candle formed but monthly, daily RSIs are rising

• Fed policy decision, SEP & Powell's press conference are risks in NY

• Ongoing Israel-Iran conflict may help to mute reaction to the Fed meeting
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable holds above 1.3448 as it consolidates gains from 1.3413 (Asia low)

• 1.3448 was Asia high, just before UK inflation data was released at 0600 GMT

• CPI remained at 3.4% YY in May; GBP/USD up to 1.3475 following the print

• UK inflation data cements expectation of BoE interest rate hold on Thursday

• U.S. jobless claims due at 1230 GMT; 245k f/c. Fed hold expected at 1800 GMT

• Khamenei says any U.S. strikes on Iran will have serious consequences

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cash hedging of option strikes removes currency exposure/captures volatility

• This hedging can often help to keep FX spot close to strikes as expiry looms

• That's truer when no other factors are influencing immediate FX price action

• 1.1500 is a massive impending FX option expiry strike level in EUR/USD

• There are 4-billion euros at 1.1500 on Wednesday and currently 2.7 on Friday

• If all else fails to excite the market - 1.1500 could prove magnetic

• Related - Profiting from uncertainty: The case for hedging FX volatility
EUR/USD FX option strikes to expire June 18-19-20

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Jittery markets await Fed as Mideast conflict rages on

• BOJ's inflation warning leaves room for another hike this year

• USD/JPY has seen a 144.86-145.44 region, on Wednesday, EBS data shows

• Upside limited by the cloud, but a close above would be bullish

• The daily cloud currently spans the 144.89-145.55 region

• 30, 60-day log correlations between USD/JPY, EUR/JPY remains high

• Japan's exports post first drop in 8 months, US tariffs bite

Daily Chart:


Correlation Chart:

• A shift in FX option pricing warned of the risk of EUR/USD setbacks

• Option risk reversals were shedding topside implied volatility premium

• Flagged topside exhaustion and risk of EUR/USD losing more ground

• Sub 1-month expiry risk reversals now trading with a downside risk premium

• Implied volatility has jumped higher to reward holders amid spot setback

• Benchmark 1-month expiry implied vol 8.8 Wednesday from 8.1 on Tuesday

• EUR/USD options now poised to trade higher if EUR/USD extends decline

• Massive 4-billion euro's 1.1500 strike expiry may prove focal on Wednesday
EUR/USD implied volatility


EUR/USD risk reversals

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/3-pm London Wednesday June 18

• EUR/USD: 1.1400 (660M), 1.1450-60 (2.4BLN), 1.1500 (4BLN), 1.1525 (1BLN)

• 1.1600-05 (1.6BLN), 1.1645-50 (1.4BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8100 (400M), 0.8165-70 (522M), 0.8200 (375M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8575 (534M)

• EUR/SEK: 10.7950 (440M), 11.15 (408M). EUR/NOK: 11.60 (362M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3400 (180M), 1.3500 (231M), 1.3550 (582M), 1.3575 (357M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6450 (210M), 0.6470 (273M), 0.6550 (240M)

• AUD/NZD: 1.0780 (200M), 1.0800 (200M), 1.0835 (340M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3600 (1.8BLN), 1.3700 (532M)

• USD/JPY: 143.00 (692M), 144.00 (844M), 145.00 (397M)

• 145.50 (391M), 145.90-146.00 (753M)

• EUR/JPY: 166.70 (225M), 167.00 (445M)

• Tuesday's FX option wrap - Shifting sentiment and an FX warning signal(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Australian gold stocks fall 2.1% to 12409 points

• Henry Jennings, senior analyst and portfolio manager at Marcus Today, attributes the decline to profit taking; the index closed up nearly 1% on Tues

• Gold prices were flat on Wed amid caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision, while investors also kept a close watch on Israel-Iran tensions [GOL/]

• Gold firm Evolution Mining down 2.7% at A$8.22, lowest since May 20; Northern Star Resources falls 2.3% to its lowest since May 30

• Ramelius Resources , Spartan Resources , Genesis Minerals , Perseus Mining , Vault Minerals and Catalyst Metals among top 10 losers on benchmark index , which is up 0.2%

• Despite today's fall, sub-index is up 47.3% YTD

(Reporting by Jasmeen Ara Shaikh and Adwitiya Srivastava in Bengaluru)