Despite recent volatility, GBP/USD remains anchored near the 1.3400 handle, but also effectively trapped within its recent 1.3250–1.3480 range.

The outlook for GBP/USD suggests continued volatility as traders remain cautious amid evolving Middle East diplomatic efforts and UK inflation and growth concerns.

While headlines regarding a temporary reprieve in energy strikes provided brief support, the pair lacks the clear momentum required to stage a definitive breakout.

Even if geopolitical tensions ease, which would be indicated by a decline in oil prices -- the pound might benefit but face substantial challenges. A diminishing geopolitical risk premium could shift market focus back to the UK's economic fundamentals, including persistent inflation, slow growth, and fiscal concerns, which could impede any significant upward movement.

Technically, risks remain tipped to the downside as sterling remains stuck below its bruised 200-day moving average at 1.3434, despite several tests over the last two weeks.

Above the 200-DMA, resistance can be found at the March 10 high at 1.3481, followed by the 50-DMA at 1.3506. Conversely, support is anchored by the 10-day moving average at 1.3353 and levels just above the March 11 low of 1.3220.

Importantly, speculative positioning may play a crucial role. A recent reduction in GBP net short positions suggests that bearish sentiment could be waning. Should positive developments in the Middle East propel GBP/USD above 1.3544, the 50% Fib of 1.3867-1.3220, bulls may gain momentum for a test of the thinning daily cloud near 1.36.
Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan looks to go long EUR/CHF on more clear signs of a cease fire in Iran.

"EURCHF continues to push higher, yesterday breaking above the 50 day as Schlegel was on the wires again emphasizing their readiness to intervene Trump’s 15-point ceasefire plan also helped risk rally, although it is unclear whether Iran are willing to negotiate," JPM notes.

"The bias is to be long of EURCHF given the various SNB comments around the franc being too strong, but would like to see more clear signs of a ceasefire in Iran before going long. Thus back to headline watching, and remain fairly light for now," JPM adds.

• Cable continues to hug 1.34 as the dollar treads water on Iran war uncertainty

• 1.3372-1.3427 is the range since the London open (1.3436 was Asia high)

• UK CPI held at 3% in February ahead of a likely upward lurch on Iran war

• BoE's Greene (hawk) says she was not close to voting to raise rates this month

• Next BoE rate decision in April, when fellow hawk Pill looks set to vote for a hike

• U.S. mortgage rates last week rose to their highest since October, MBA says

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research summarizes its views and year-end targets for AUD (AUD/USD), and NZD (AUD/NZD).

"AUD (AUD/USD 0.74) – bullish: Positive ToT shock and higher RBA cash rate. Global growth slowdown is a risk but improvement in US-China trade relations and potential shift in superannuation fund hedge ratios likely to be durable tailwinds," BofA notes.

"NZD (AUD/NZD 1.28) – bearish: NZ’s heavy dependence on imported energy, large current-account deficit and negative output gap likely to weigh on RBNZ pricing," BofA adds.

Barclays Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and targets the pair at 157, 156, and 155 by end of Q2, Q3, and Q4 respectively.

"While the JPY could remain under pressure from geopolitical developments in the near term, the eventual reversal of the negative terms-of-trade shock should provide some support. We expect any excessive JPY weakness to be contained around 160, as intervention risks remain elevated," Barclays notes.

"Further convergence of US-Japan policy rates is already largely priced, providing limited downward impulse for USDJPY. In this light, we forecast a modest gradual rebound for the JPY, but a degree of risk premium relative to our fair value estimate of 148 is likely to persist," Barclays adds.

• AUD/USD rallied to 0.7003 in Asia, sellers emerged, pair then turned lower

• Below estimate Australia Feb. CPI helped to weigh down the pair

• Pair fell despite rallies in gold , silver , stocks

• Broad based US$ buying turmped those rallies and drove the pair lower

• AUD/USD hit 0.6960, NY opened near 0.6970, down -0.40%

• Techs lean bearish; RSIs are falling, pair below 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs

• Monthly inverted hammer candle, diverging monthly RSI reinforce bear signs
AUDUSD hourly chart


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option prices off peaks as FX volatility subsides, but they retain visible Mid East conflict volatility risk premium

• The FX implied volatility for most currency pairs stays well above pre conflict levels from late February

• However, USD/JPY is an exception - its implied volatility is almost back at pre conflict levels

• Probably not surprising with USD/JPY mostly contained with 158-160 and lacking the volatility upon which options thrive

• Risk reversal contracts have seen JPY call over JPY put premiums drop toward long term lows

• Demand for downside strikes is also lower than demand for topside strikes over recent weeks, despite intervention threat

• Price action would suggest that USD/JPY traders are more concerned about USD/JPY gains than losses
USD/JPY FX option 25 delta risk reversals


USD/JPY FXO implied volatility


Benchmark 1-month expiry FXO implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD gravitates towards 0.6990 option expiry ahead of the NY cut

• The size of the strike for 10am ET (1400 GMT) is A$1.2 billion

• Big expiries can exert magnetism over FX rates, re: option-related flow

• 0.6962 was intra-day low at 0735 GMT (0.6940 was Tuesday low)

• Australian inflation slowed to 3.7% in February (RBA raised rates last week)

• Iron ore snaps gaining streak (iron ore is Australia's biggest export earner)

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable continues to hug 1.34 after February's as expected 3% UK CPI print

• 1.3372-1.3436 is intra-day range-to-date. 1.3353-1.3444 was Tuesday range

• War sentiment is prime influence over safe-haven dollar, risk-sensitive pound

• Iran's military rejects Trump's talk of negotiation

• YouGov/Citi survey says UK inflation expectations surge to 5.4%

• Hawkish BoE Chief Economist Pill looks set to vote for rate hike in April

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options thrive on FX volatility which is key to the premium - implied volatility is a proxy

• Implied volatility surged higher amid Mid East conflict as volatility and further turbulence was anticipated

• Although easing from peaks in many pairs, dont be fooled - FX volatility risk hasn't gone away

• Options become costly when actual volatility fails to materialise and offset daily decay

• EUR/USD consolidation around 1.1600 is a case in point — less volatility means cheaper premiums

• While an end-game eludes, conflict uncertainty will maintain a vol risk premium and limit implied vol setbacks

• Related - FX options wrap - Conflict risk premium still firmly embedded
Benchmark 1-month expiry FXO implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD recovery falls short 200-DMA at 1.1679

• Three tests above 21-DMA followed by closes below it

• This week's high all falling shy of Mar 10 peak at 1.1667

• Despite reducing their exposure, traders remain long euro

• $30 per barrel added to price of oil weighing EUR/USD

• Deeper drop may reach 1.1336 (38.2% 2025-26 rise)

EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD unchanged in Asia as traders absorb a deluge of war-related news

• Unaffected by buoyant risk mood on U.S. plan aimed at ending Iran conflict

• 15-point U.S. peace plan includes month-long ceasefire proposal

• S&P 500 E-Mini up 0.55%, Nikkei up 2.6%, U.S. 10-year yield -5 bps

• Caution warranted as conflicting headlines trigger whipsaw moves

• UK Feb CPI, PPI eyed Wed as BoE says ready to act to mitigate economic risks

• March British business activity grew at slowest pace in 6 months as war hits

• Strong resistance at 1.3470-80, then 1.3500, 1.3545; support 1.3380, 1.3350

• Ranges : Tuesday 1.3353-1.3444, Asia 1.3400-1.3436
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.3% Wed as monthly inflation slows pre-oil crisis impact

• AU Feb trimmed mean CPI +0.2% m/m, Reuters poll consensus +0.3%

• Trump puts forward 15-point plan aimed at ending war, but scepticism remains

• U.S. sending more troops to Middle East as hostilities rage on

• News & flow dictating short term AUD direction, markets reactive & volatile

• RBA Assistant Governor Kent speaking at debt capital market summit Thur

• Range Asia 0.6974-0.7003, support 0.6900, resistance 0.7250 0.7282
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

March 25 (Reuters) - USD/JPY looks set to remain in limbo in a core 158.00-160.00 range, awaiting fresh news and the outcome of the Middle East war. News that U.S. President Donald Trump sent Iran a 15-point plan aimed at ending the conflict has given most markets a glimmer of hope . Though many remain sceptical of a deal just yet, sentiment has improved considerably in Asia with most bourses rising sharply. The Nikkei, for one, is currently up 2.6% around 53,616. USD/JPY appears to be reflecting scepticism over a quick end to the conflict, holding steady Wednesday between 158.57-82 EBS. Another inside day so far after ranges of 158.30-159.19 Tuesday and 158.03-159.66 Monday.

The market still sees 160.00 as the proverbial line in the sand for FX intervention by Japan. This is especially so after much stronger jaw-boning from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and the Ministry of Finance's Atsushi Mimura, both tying recent FX volatility to moves in crude oil prices , , . On the downside, good bids from Japanese importers and others remain ahead of 158.00. While breaks towards the 157.51 March 19 low, if not lower, cannot be ruled out on fresh, positive Middle East news, this remains to be seen. Shifting central bank expectations due to the inflationary effects of the Middle East war are also a market focus . Some now see the U.S. Federal Reserve leaning towards a possible hike from its current steady stance. The Bank of Japan is still largely expected to hike again in April ,[nL1N40602C], .

Related comments , . For more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


NYMEX crude oil futures:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Sonali Desai)

• Shares of Australia's West Coast Silver rise as much as 17.9% to A$0.165

• Stock on track for second consecutive session of gains, if trend holds

• Explorer and developer says it commences drilling to expand silver mineralisation spots at its Elizabeth Hill silver project in Australia

• Despite moves, stock down 28.9% YTD
(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Australia's Astral Resources rise as much as 12.1% to A$0.185, their biggest intraday pct gain since December 17, 2025

• The metal explorer says exploration drilling intersects significant gold at co's Spargoville Gold project in Western Australia (WA)

• Gold find at Spargoville's Wattle Dam Complex

• Stock has fallen 32.1% this year, including session moves

(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)

• Middle East news and moves in energy prices remain main foci

• Little of substance overnight, USD/JPY about where Asia left it yesterday

• Range so far 158.63-76 EBS, in limbo between 158.00-160.00 for now

• Japanese importers, others tipped on bid well ahead of 158.00

• Japanese exporters, others eyed on rallies towards 159.00 for now

• Inside days seen since 158.03-159.66 range on Monday

• Spot pivoting around thinner hourly Ichimoku cloud, currently 158.63-69

• 100-HMA 158.83 and 200-HMA 159.05, to help cap today?

• Massive $2.6 bln option expiries today at 158.00 likely supportive

• Some also at 158.30 and so-so large $$835 mln at 160.00 well above

• Widening in JGB-US Treasury rate differentials look to have peaked for now

• Differential in 2s @258 bps from 265 bp high, 10s @210 bps, high 211 bps

• Fed now seen leaning towards maybe a hike, market still sees April BOJ move

• Related comments , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Fed-speak , , US economy

• On US Middle East plan , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


NYMEX crude oil futures:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD +0.1% wtd despite big daily ranges caused by news driven volatility

• Pair firmly ensconced in downtrend as series of lower highs keeps extending

• Ongoing energy supply crisis may trigger RBNZ hike if inflation entrenched

• U.S. sending more troops to Middle East, contradicting claims of progress

• RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway speaking in Auckland Wed

• Range NZ 0.5801-505, support 0.5710 0.5580, resistance 0.5918 0.6092 0.6120
NZD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

ANZ Research discusses AUD/USD and AUD/NZD outlook and targets.

"The AUD has been amongst the best performing G10 currencies this year, supported by strong domestic data and a hawkish RBA. We expect the AUD/USD to be at 0.75 into year-end. We see AU-US rate differentials remaining AUD supportive, with expectations that the spread will widen if, as we expect, the RBA hikes a further 25bp by year end and the Fed eases by 75bp," ANZ notes.

"On the crosses, AUD/NZD has reached to multi-year high above 1.20 in recent weeks, aided by high energy prices and Australia’s role as a net energy exporter...We think New Zealand data are showing green shoots in its gradual economic recovery and our expectation of a 25bp RBNZ hike this year should, in combination, see the AUD/NZD at 1.17 at year end," ANZ adds.

• AUD/USD -0.1% late Tue as Iran war continues to drive energy supply concerns

• Pair bounced late in session on unconfirmed rumours of Middle East ceasefire

• U.S. sending more troops to Middle East, contrasts with claims of progress

• AU monthly CPI Feb update Wed, Reuters poll consensus 0.0% m/m, +3.8% y/y

• News & flow setting AUD direction short term, market volatile & illiquid

• RBA Assistant Governor Kent speaking at debt capital market summit Thur

• Overnight range 0.69391-0.70115, support 0.6900, resistance 0.7250 0.7282
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NY opened near 1.1595 after 1.1619 traded overnight, pair lifted early

• 1.1606 traded, sellers then emerged and the pair steadily fell

• US yield gains rallied US$; USD/CNH was able to rally to 6.9050

• Ongoing conflict with Iran also helped the US dollar get a safe-haven bid

• Drops in gold, equities & rally in oil also contributed to EUR/USD's drop

• The pair hit 1.1557 & traded nearby late in the session, was down -0.39%

• Falling RSIs, hold below 21-DMA & t-l off Jan. 27 high are concerns for bulls
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6980 after 0.7024 traded overnight, slide extended

• After a lift toward 0.6990 AUD/USD fell back below the 55-DMA, daily cloud top

• The pair hit 0.6939 and traded nearby late, it was down -0.79% in late action

• US yield , US$ gains weighed; USD/CNH rally to 6.9050 added weight

• Drops in gold , copper , stocks also contributed to the drop

• Techs are bearish; RSIs falling, pair below 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs and the daily cloud

• Diverging monthly RSI, March's monthly inverted hammer added to bearish signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses AUD outlook around this week's Australia CPI report.

"Investors will keep an eye on events in the Middle East when trading AUD/USD, but they will also have to look out for Wednesday’s Australian CPI release for February. The monthly data now matters as much as the quarterly release and tomorrow higher rents and new home prices will keep inflation aloft even before higher energy prices due to the war in the Middle East push it higher in the coming months," CACIB notes.

"The market will be focused on the trimmed mean inflation print, which is expected by the consensus to remain at 3.4% YoY and above the RBA’s 2-3% target band. In its February MPS, the RBA forecast trimmed mean inflation to accelerate to 3.7% YoY in H126; this was before war broke out in the Middle East. The Australian rates market is nearly 60% priced for another RBA rate hike in May, so there is room for the CPI data to swing the AUD bout," CACIB adds.

• Cable was helped off 1.3367 intra-day low by Pakistan's peace talks offer

• Rally extended to 1.3425 NY session high as USD dipped on CNN news

• CNN-Iranian source acknowledges U.S. outreach. Ensuing low is 1.3389

• 1.3389 low plumbed on word Gulf states weigh military options vs Iran

• BoE's Pill says uncertainty is no excuse for inaction on inflation risk

• UK February inflation data due on Wednesday at 0700 GMT; CPI f/c 3%

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)