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The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq gained after a shaky start on Monday, finding their footing following last week's AI-sparked tech rout, while investors focused on key economic data that could shed light on the Federal Reserve's interest-rate path. [.N] At 13:30 EST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.05% at 50,092.12.The S&P 500 was up 0.44% at 6,964.06, and the Nasdaq Composite

was up 0.85% at 23,225.82.

The top three S&P 500 percentage gainers:

• Applovin Corp , up 14.0%

• Oracle Corp , up 11.2%

• Ciena Corp , up 7.5%

The top three S&P 500 percentage losers:

• Waters Corp , down 11.9%

• Workday Inc , down 6.3%

• Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. , down 5.3%

The top three NYSE percentage gainers:

• Valaris Ltd , up 33.0%

• DHI Group Inc , up 30.7%

• Zepp Health Corp , up 24.6%

The top three NYSE percentage losers:

• Kyndryl Holdings Inc , down 54.6%

• Gray Media Inc , down 19.8%

• Lanvin Group Holdings Ltd , down 19.3%

The top three Nasdaq percentage gainers:

• Borealis Foods Inc , up 127.4%

• MDJM Ltd , up 83.2%

• CCH Holdings Ltd , up 70.3%

The top three Nasdaq percentage losers:

• Scantech AI Systems Inc , down 35.4%

• Polaryx Therapeutics Inc , down 32.1%

• Ming Shing Group Holdings Ltd , down 30.1%

• Novo Nordisk A/S : BUZZ - Extends gains as Hims abandons $49 weight-loss pill

• Hims & Hers Health Inc : BUZZ - Sinks to over-one-year low after Novo Nordisk patent-infringement lawsuit

• Tegna Inc : BUZZ - Rises after Trump backs merger with Nexstar Media

• Kroger Co : BUZZ - Gains after naming former Walmart exec Greg Foran as CEO

• Hecla Mining Co :

• Coeur Mining Inc :

• Endeavour Silver Corp :

• Silvercorp Metals Inc :

BUZZ - Silver miners rise on weaker dollar

• Microsoft Corp : BUZZ - 'AI is eating Microsoft,' says Melius, downgrades to 'hold'

• TransDigm Group Inc : BUZZ - Jefferies lifts TransDigm PT on thrust from deals, aircraft production

• Cleveland-Cliffs Inc : BUZZ - Falls after Q4 revenue miss

• Once Upon a Farm PBC : BUZZ - Jumps after first-day pop

• Becton Dickinson and Co : BUZZ - Falls after lowering 2026 profit forecast

• Illinois Tool Works Inc : BUZZ - Barclays raises Illinois Tool Works' PT on signs of demand momentum

• Emerson Electric Co : BUZZ - Stephens raises Emerson Electric's PT on orders strength

• Kyndryl Inc : BUZZ - Plummets after flagging financial reporting weakness, CFO exit

• Momentus Inc : BUZZ - Jumps on partnership with NASA

• Transocean Ltd : BUZZ - Shares drop on $5.8 billion buyout of Valaris

• Sally Beauty Holdings Inc : BUZZ - Falls after forecasting annual profit below estimates

• Workday Inc : BUZZ - Co-founder to return as CEO, shares slide

• Old Dominion Freight Line Inc : BUZZ - Citi downgrades Old Dominion to 'neutral', sees rising competition

• Merchants Bancorp : BUZZ - Jumps on S&P SmallCap inclusion

• Expand Energy Corp : BUZZ - Falls on CEO exit

• Edgewell Personal Care Co : BUZZ - Falls after annual profit forecast cut

• Waters Corp : BUZZ Falls on weak quarterly profit outlook

• Terawulf Inc :

• Cipher Mining Inc : BUZZ - Jump as Morgan Stanley starts with "overweight" rating

• Vizsla Silver Corp : BUZZ - Falls after abducted Mexico workers found dead

• Apollo Global Management Inc : BUZZ - Shares rise on xAI loan report, Q4 profit beat

• Dynatrace Inc : BUZZ - Climbs after beat-and-raise quarter, $1 billion stock buyback

• Uber Technologies Inc : BUZZ - To aquire Turkey's Getir delivery business; shares slip

• Newmont Corp :

• Gold Fields Ltd :

• Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd :

• AngloGold Ashanti PLC :

BUZZ - Gold miners gain as bullion rises on softer dollar

• Microchip Technology Inc : BUZZ - Dips on planned $600 million convertible bonds offering

• Hain Celestial Group Inc : BUZZ - Sinks on Q2 loss

• Playboy Inc : BUZZ - Soars after selling 50% stake in China business

• Ciena Corp : BUZZ - Shares surge in first day of trading in S&P 500

• Coca-Cola Co : BUZZ - Q4 EPS, rev seen rising

Index RIC Index name Percent change %

S&P 500 0.46

S&P 500 1.46

Information

Technology

S&P 500 0.07

Utilities

S&P 500 -0.09

Consumer

Discretionary

S&P 500 0.95

Materials

S&P 500 0.33

Industrials

S&P 500 0.88

Communication

Services

(Sector)

S&P 500 -0.32

Financials

S&P 500 Real 0.3

Estate

S&P 500 Health -0.97

Care

S&P 500 -1.2

Consumer

Staples

S&P 500 Energy 0.68 ​

(Compiled by Rajarshi Roy and Dharna Bafna)

Morgan Stanley Research discusses its tactical GBP outlook.

"We remain bearish on GBP on crosses, though think GBP/USD has more of a neutral outlook given our bearish skew on USD. Last week's dovish BoE meeting has led investors to price in a deeper cutting cycle from the MPC and we think has accelerated the time when GBP will lose its carry advantage - arguably the key support for the currency. Meanwhile, investors continue to debate the distribution of risks around fiscal policy, which has added term premium to long-end gilts," MS notes.

"We think this twist-steepening in the yield curve should continue to put upward pressure on EUR/ GBP and we continue to recommend call spreads to express a view that EUR/GBP will rally towards the top end of its technical range," MS notes.

• NY opened near 0.7035 after 0.7006 traded overnight, rally extended in NY

• Overnight US$ selling intensified in NY; USD/CNH hit a new trend low of 6.9151

• Rallies in gold , silver & copper reinfroced the US$ selling

• AUD/USD hit a 7-session high of 0.7093; was nearby late in the day, traded up +1.16%

• Break of trend line off Jan. 29 high, support from 10-DMA are bullish tech signals

• Rising daily, monthly RSIs & February's monthly bull hammer reinforce bullish signs

• Jan. NAB business conditions, confidence surveys are data risks during Asia hours

• US Dec. retail sales, Q4 employment costs are data risks in NY's morning
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Rseearch discusses the recent Gold and tech rout and it's implications for G10 FX.

"The rout in heavily positioned trades - gold and technology stocks - has left only a light footprint in G10 FX. The DXY strengthened moderately but remains confined to its recent range.

This reflects both lighter positioning in G10 FX, but also reduced sensitivity to these asset classes in recent years. Technology stocks - to the extent they are increasingly driven by AI dynamics - create more crosscurrents for USD than the traditional risk dynamic," BofA notes.

"Similarly, the gold rally has been more symptomatic of fiat currency debasement than just the historical correlation driven by the pricing of gold in USD," BofA adds.

• EUR/GBP rises to 0.8741 as higher gilt yields weigh on the pound

• 0.8741 is four pips shy of last month's peak (scaled on Jan 21)

• Higher gilt yields fuelled by growing pressure on UK PM Starmer

• Scottish Labour leader Sarwar reported to be ready to call on Starmer to go

• 0.8613 was 23-week low for EUR/GBP last Wednesday - before UK PMQs

• French central bank head Villeroy to stand down early

EURGBP


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research discusses USD/JPY near-term outlook.

"Markets are pricing-in over 50bp of BoJ rate hikes by the end of 2026. We think this is overdone, with April being the final 25bp hike of the cycle in our view. Further inflation misses and cautious BoJ rhetoric may see this pricing reverse and likely drag the JPY lower," ANZ notes.

"Overall, we see USD/JPY continuing its march higher in the absence of any new US policy volatility. We continue to see risks of a move over 160 in the near term," ANZ adds.

Goldman Sachs Research discusses USD/JPY outlook after Japan's Snap Lower House Election over the weekend.

"The ruling coalition has reportedly achieved a “landslide” victory in Japan’s snap Lower House election, clearly signaling wide support for the direction of the new administration, including its focus on greater fiscal spending. While some initial polls had flagged this possibility, we view this as slightly stronger than expectations," GS notes.

"We expect implied volatility to pick up again, with USD/JPY moving towards and through 160 as markets digest the full impact of the election results and the mandate for PM Takaichi Sanae. However, the move may be short-lived or even short-circuited if authorities push back through rate checks or actual intervention," GS adds.

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Wall Street futures steadied on Monday, after a week marred by tech stock declines amid AI concerns that dragged the market lower, as investors awaited crucial economic data as well as hints from the U.S. central bank on potential rate cuts. [.N]

• Novo Nordisk A/S : BUZZ - Extends gains as Hims abandons $49 weight-loss pill

• Hims & Hers Health Inc : BUZZ - Tumbles after FDA warning on compounded weight-loss pill; Novo, Lilly gain

• Tegna Inc : BUZZ - Rises after Trump backs merger with Nexstar Media

• Kroger Co : BUZZ - Gains on report co to announce former Walmart exec Greg Foran as CEO

• Hecla Mining Co :

• Coeur Mining Inc :

• Endeavour Silver Corp :

• Silvercorp Metals Inc : BUZZ - Silver miners rise on weaker dollar

• Microsoft Corp : BUZZ - 'AI is eating Microsoft,' says Melius, downgrades to 'hold'

• TransDigm Group Inc : BUZZ - Jefferies lifts TransDigm PT on thrust from deals, aircraft production

(Compiled by Rajarshi Roy and Dharna Bafna)

• U.S.-listed shares of silver miners rise premarket, tracking gains in the white metal's prices [GOL/]

• Spot silver rises 4.3% to $81.32 per ounce

• Prices rise supported by a weaker dollar, as a slate of U.S. economic reports scheduled for this week brought investors' focus back to the trajectory of interest rates

• Hecla Mining up 1.5%; Coeur Mining up 1%

• Canadian miners Endeavour Silver up 1.5%; Silvercorp Metals up ~2%

• Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust ETF both up 3.2%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

Gold, which many traders have sold, appears to be a far safer investment than the euro, which many have been buying. While both gold and the euro are considered safe assets, those that are less widely held are often safer than assets where positioning may be becoming crowded.

The contrast is stark. Bullish bets on gold have been purged to their lowest level since May 2025, when the precious metal was $2,000/oz cheaper than it is now - and about half of the recent selloff losses have already been swiftly recovered.

By contrast, speculators have added heavily to bullish euro bets near the peak of a major rally - and the euro has since fallen.

Both gold, which traded around $2,600/oz before the trade war was reignited in January 2025, and EUR/USD, which traded at 1.0125 in February 2025, have risen significantly. But where the rise in one asset has attracted large speculative demand, the other has not.

This divergence is unusual and supports the case for gold to rise further, even as the probability of a correction in the euro increases. With little to impede further gains, gold - driven by a source of demand far more powerful than the speculators who have been selling - could exceed its current record high of $5,595/oz. By contrast, it may be harder for EUR/USD to break and sustain levels above 1.20 while many traders are already betting on that outcome.
Gold sold and many more euros purchased


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD rises to 0.7042 as report about China-UST weighs on the U.S. dollar

• China urges banks to curb UST exposure, Bloomberg News reports

• 0.7042 is the highest level since Feb 4 (0.7043 was the high that day)

• AUD also benefits from higher gold price (Australia is a big gold producer)

• 0.7050 was last week's high (Feb 3), after AUD rose on RBA's hawkish hike

• Major Australian pension fund HESTA says AUD undervalued

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY first jumped to 157.95 in early trading and has subsequently dropped to 156.22 (EBS)

• Yen firms as intervention risk trips up Takaichi trade, after the PM swept to victory in Sunday's election

• Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura: government closely watching FX moves

• Direct intervention would likely see USD/JPY fill a gap under 150 that opened up in October

• However, USD/JPY's downside in the short-term is limited by the daily cloud that spans 154.72-156.24

•
Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 44 pip range thus far Monday; 1.3585-1.3629

• 1.3629 is 5.5 pips beyond Friday's high. 1.3508 was two-week low Friday

• Drop to 1.3508 was influenced by concerns about Starmer's ability to remain UK PM

• Starmer's top aide McSweeney quits over Mandelson-Epstein scandal

• CFTC data: net GBP short shrank for tenth consecutive week in week to Feb 3

• UST yields rise after report China urging banks to ease exposure

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD pressured by extended retreat in USD/JPY, lower USD/CNH

• USD/JPY backs off 157.72 early high to 156.43 last, intervention fears cap

• DXY last at 97.45, ranged 97.37-65 so far, off 97.76 before Far East opens

• USD/SGD heavy below 1.2700 support, eyes 1.2680, 1.2650 next

• USD/THB hits 31.20 low, election win boost THB gains, stocks rally

• USD/THB last at 31.20-22, traded amid 31.20-58 range so far

• USD/MYR pressured by inflows, good selling, traded 3.9250 low, last 3.93

• Targets 3.91 Jan 29 low, break to see 3.90.

• M'sia Dec IP up 4.8%y/y, in line with forecasts, was 4.3%y/y in Nov

• USD/IDR lower to 16840 low vs 16875 high, concerns on ratings to stall

• USD/INR consolidates above 90.0 handle, awaits US-India trade details

• Pair last at 90.41-43, ranged 90.38-69 so far

• Related
USD

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• AUD/USD +0.2% Mon after shrugging off softer Dec household spending data

• RBA likely to remain hawkish, positive yield differential supporting AUD

• AUD needs small momentum bump to ascend above 0.7158 3-year peak

• U.S. Jan non-farm payrolls due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +70k

• U.S. retail sales Tue, unemployment Wed, jobless claims Thur & CPI Fri

• Range Asia 0.7006-375, support 0.6895-00 0.6660, resistance 0.7158
AUD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD soft in Asia on UK political uncertainty, dovish BoE expectations

• Sunday resignation of UK PM Starmer's top aide McSweeney weighs on GBP

• McSweeney quits over Mandelson-Epstein scandal

• Starmer faces gravest crisis of his tenure over Mandelson appointment

• GBP upside limited as investors up bets on rate cuts after dovish BoE

• U.S. jobs report Wed, CPI Fri, UK Q4 GDP on Thu key this week

• Support 1.3550, resistance 1.3645-50; Asia range 1.3585-1.3620
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian mining stocks rise as much as 3%, helping the broader benchmark gain 1.5%

• Sub-index shed 6.3% in the previous two sessions of losses

• Copper snapped two straight days of losses on Friday to move back above the $13,000 level as investors bought into the dip [MET/L]

• BHP and Rio Tinto advance as much as 2.4% and 2.9%, respectively

• Rio notches an all-time high

• YTD, AXMM up 7.5%, outperforming AXJO's 1.4% rise

(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD +0.2% Mon as precious metals continue to recover (Gold +1.3%)

• AU Dec & Q4 household spending -0.4% m/m, +0.9% q/q (prior +1.0%, +0.2%)

• RBA likely to convey hawkishness at multiple speaking engagements this week

• AUD looks set to extend 2026 rally beyond 0.7158 3-year high

• U.S. Jan non-farm payrolls due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +70k

• U.S. retail sales Tue, unemployment Wed, jobless claims Thur & CPI Fri

• Range Asia 0.7006-375, support 0.6895-00 0.6660, resistance 0.7158
Gold Daily 21-DMA


AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

(Corrects USD/JPY high in fifth line)

• The Takaichi trade is back on with vehemence following the landslide LDP win

• PM Takaichi's LDP saw a resounding win in Lower House elections

• The LDP managed to take the majority of electoral districts

• Opposition left with proportional seats for most part, key members lost

• USD/JPY 157.95 EBS early Asia following this news, low so far today 156.65

• Some caution still over FX intervention from @158.00, awaiting word from MOF

• Takaichi win good for Japanese equities, upward pressure on rates, weak yen

• USD/JPY holding for most part above 156.47-86 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Ascending 100-HMA 156.50 towards cloud base, 200-HMA 155.13

• Still ascending daily cloud 154.71-156.24, underlining support?

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials at short-end of curve gapped down Friday

• Differential in 2s to 215 bps, diff in 10s narrower too, to 194 bps Friday

• In options, large expiries today between 157.00-10, some 155.00-05, 160.00

• On IMM CTA, JPY shorts down again to 19,222 contracts

• Related comments , , ,

• Also

• On Japan elections , , ,

• Trump/Bessent-speak , , on economy

• Bessent on USD , on Fed

• US markets , , ,

• Fed-speak , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:


(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Mon after Fri's resurgent 1.7% rally from 0.6897 low

• Precious metals strength gave AUD tailwind Fri, Gold +4.0% & Silver +9.5%

• AU Dec/Q4 household spending data due Mon (prior +1.0% m/m, +0.2% q/q)

• RBA likely to stress hawkish stance at speaking engagements this week

• U.S.-Iran tension eases as Iran makes positive remarks post-talks

• U.S. Jan non-farm payrolls due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +70k

• AUD looks set to extend 2026 rally beyond 0.7158 3-year high

• Range early Asia 0.7006-17, support 0.6895-00 0.6660, resistance 0.7158
AUD Weekly 52-WMA


AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The aussie was the big beneficiary on Friday as the U.S. dollar came under pressure from rallying risk markets, with gold, silver, and equity futures advancing while USD/CNH fell. In data, U.S. consumer sentiment edged higher and beat expectations, while one-year inflation expectations fell sharply from 4.0% to 3.5%, easing concerns about persistent price pressures.

Key U.S. data next week—including December retail sales, January payrolls, CPI, and weekly claims—pose volatility risks. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson expressed cautious optimism about 2026, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly characterized the economy as "precarious." Treasury Secretary Bessent said a strong-dollar policy means building conditions that underpin dollar strength.

EUR/USD opened New York trading near 1.1790 after touching 1.1766 overnight, then extended its advance to reach 1.1826 before settling near 1.1820. Bulls found technical support from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1572-1.2084 range and the 21-day moving average. ECB policymakers said current policy fits the inflation outlook but warned they must be ready to act if price growth weakens excessively. Separately, ECB officials cautioned that a sharp euro rise could prompt a policy response, noting the currency's strength mainly reflects dollar weakness rather than eurozone fundamentals.

GBP/USD held firm through the New York afternoon, trading up 0.7% at 1.3610 within a Friday range of 1.3509-1.3624. The broad risk rebound lifted sterling, considerably paring Thursday's post-Bank of England slide. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill warned against excessive comfort from an expected April inflation dip, stressing the need to prevent undershooting the target, while British house prices posted the best monthly gain since 2024 in January. The political fallout from UK PM Keir Starmer appointing Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington remains a downside risk.

USD/JPY settled above the cloud top and 21-DMA ahead of weekend Japanese elections, trading in a narrow 156.52-157.14 range below the key 158 level. The LDP is expected to secure a solid lower house majority. AUD/USD surged 1.44% to 0.7025, benefiting from precious metals gains and easing geopolitical tensions after Iran's top diplomat said Oman-mediated nuclear talks with the U.S. were off to a good start. USD/CAD fell 0.47% after Canada unexpectedly shed 24,800 jobs, though its unemployment rate fell to 6.5%. Treasury yields were mixed, sending the 2s-10s curve down about 1 basis point to +71.2bp as it pulled back from a four-year high.

The S&P 500 rose 1.74%. WTI oil was up 1.1% as investors assessed U.S.-Iran talks.

Gold rose 4%, silver popped 8% and copper gained 1.1%. Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.39%, USD/JPY +0.03%, GBP/USD +0.66%, AUD/USD +1.37%, DXY -0.23%, EUR/JPY +0.39%, GBP/JPY +0.67%, AUD/JPY +1.39%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the JPY outlook into Japan's Feb-8 snap elections.

"The JPY is heading into the weekend’s Lower House election on the backfoot as investors price in PM Sanae Takaichi’s strong popularity translating into votes and an outright victory by the LDP in the election.Indeed, polling is pointing to the incumbent LDP-JIP coalition winning over 300 seats. Winning over 310 seats in the Lower House would allow the coalition to override any Upper House veto, where the coalition lacks a majority," CACAIB notes.

The JGB curve could face steepening pressure following the election if the LDP wins an outright victory. Investors would price in greater fiscal sustainability risks with unbound “Sanaenomics”. The US-Japan box yield spread & the Nikkei are the strongest drivers of USD/JPY with Japanese politics dominating the Fed and BoJ as drivers of the exchange rate. A steeper JGB curve is negative for the JPY. Investors will be on alert for FX intervention post the election, however," CACIB adds.

Newly-minted USD/JPY longs appear uneasy ahead of weekend elections in Japan. Price gains since USD/JPY was near 152 have not translated into conviction, with positioning and options markets suggesting growing caution beneath the surface.

One-month USD/JPY risk reversals have risen to around 1.8% in favor of yen calls, with a similar tilt seen across the volatility curve. Bearish USD/JPY skews remain unusually wide following the sharp three-day slide tied to suspected rate checks in January, highlighting lingering downside sensitivity.

Election expectations themselves may be contributing to this nervousness. Markets largely anticipate the LDP securing a clear majority, with some polls pointing to 300+ seats and a small chance of a two-thirds supermajority, while 233 seats is viewed as the minimum outcome.

With optimism already fully priced and the Nikkei at a fresh record, the risk of an electoral letdown is non-trivial—an outcome that could allow the yen to claw back recent losses, with the passing of event risk also prompting some short covering.

Futures open interest has matched spot gains from 153 to a 157.34 high and is now sitting at a two-month peak. However, positioning is not yet extreme, suggesting bulls are reluctant to chase higher amid elevated volatility and persistent intervention risk.

A decisive break above 158 with a backdrop of subdued volatility, possibly due to equity gains, would be needed to open the path toward 160. Failing that, a slip back below the 21-DMA of 156.63 and cloud top at 156.35 could trigger a pullback toward the 154.72 cloud base where dip buying may be considered.
Yen


(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Bank of America Global Research discusses the USD and EUR outlook in the medium-term.

"The dollar has had a tumultuous January but has found its footing over the past week. We remain bearish but feel some of the hype over concepts such as "debasement" and "sell America" are overdone at this stage. Evidence thus far does not support these claims, though we do remain attentive going forward. We envision FX hedging as a much more plausible bridge between these potential risks and how investors are likely to react," BofA notes.

"Elsewhere, we maintain a constructive view on the EUR side of the equation, Overall, we look for the USD to grind lower vs several G10 currencies, both for US and non-US centric reason," BofA adds.