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By eFXdata  —  Oct 21 - 02:30 PM

Citi discusses the latest developments on Evergrande.

"Note that the company missed bond coupon payments due September 23 which includes USD83.5mn relating to outstanding dollar debt – there is a 30 day grace period ending this Saturday before the missed payment is officially considered a default. The group will "use its best effort to negotiate for the renewal or extension of its borrowings or other alternative arrangements with its creditors," it said on Wednesday but gave no further detail," Citi notes.

"Contagion is likely to be contained. While there will be noise in the short term, our Research colleagues believe that an orderly restructuring is the most likely outcome on Evergrande, limiting macro contagion risk. The PBoC has said that spillover effects are controllable," Citi adds. 

Citi Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Oct 21 - 03:20 PM

The dollar rose on Thursday, particularly against high-beta currencies, but fell versus the haven yen as risk aversion increased amid worries that global growth is being slowed by pandemic-related supply side problems.

Concern about COVID infection rates surging again in some major countries also hurt sentiment, as did lingering worries about the Fed and other central banks shifting toward tightening, along with trepidation about the Evergande saga.

In stark contrast to the broader central bank trend, Turkey cut rates by 200 bps, sending the lira tumbling 3% to yet another record low against the dollar nL1N2RH0TC

The Nikkei 225's 1.87% dive led the risk-off trade and persisted in the Americas, where futures fell 2.5%.

jobless claims fell more than forecast to new pandemic lows nL1N2RG2F0, but Philly Fed and existing home sales highlighted supply-demand disruptions feeding inflation and challenging the Fed's patience.

Markets have priced 45bp of rate hikes by end-2022 and 5-year Treasury yields are rapidly closing the gap on the S&P 500's dividend yields, making investors cautious but helping the haven yen recover some of its recent losses.

EUR/USD fell 0.24% after its 1.1667 high on EBS again ran into offers by the 38.2% Fibo of the September-October drop and daily Kijun at 1.1670.

A drop in euro zone consumer confidence to -4.8 in October from -4 in September, the dollar's modest risk-off bid and lingering doubts regarding ECB willingness to eventually tighten policy to ward off inflation kept EUR/USD under wraps.

USD/JPY fell by 0.33%, GBP/JPY by 0.56% and EUR/JPY by 0.56% on a combination of profit-taking on overbought long trades and fresh safe-haven demand for the yen.

USD/JPY broke initial Fibo support at 113.78 and the 200-HMA it had traded above since Oct.
7, and looks set to reach the 38.2% Fibo of October's rapid rally and the Oct.
14 low at 113.21 on EBS nL1N2RH1DE.

Higher Treasury-JGB yields spreads driven by Fed rate hike expectations and inflation have fueled USD/JPY gains but may soon approach levels where frothy assets prices become a concern, leading to repatriation into the yen, which had been used to fund risk trades.

GBP/USD fell 0.3% after early gains were rejected by Tuesday's 1.3834 recovery high near the 50% Fibo of the June-September slide at 1.3831.

The risk-sensitive pound was hurt by rebounding COVID cases in the UK nL8N2RG1K5 and a six-month low in the CBI's industrial orders balance at +9 versus +22 in September, as well as broader risk-aversion.

Aggressive BOE rate hike pricing backed off slightly.
A cable close below the daily cloud base at 1.3789 is needed to suggest bulls have been put off enough to allow a deeper drop nL1N2RH1EF.

Friday's main event is global PMIs for October, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell participates in panel discussion at 1100 EDT nL1N2RG2I2.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Oct 21 - 02:57 PM

  • USD/JPY slid to 113.65 on EBS amid risk-off flows favoring the yen

  • Pair broke 23.6% Fibo of Oct's rise at 113.78, based at 113.65 on EBS

  • Down 0.4% after rebound on steadily rising S-T Treasury yields

  • Claims drop, Philly Fed, existing homes sales a net plus nL1N2RG2F0

  • But Wed's failed breakout past 2018 high and O/B pressures weigh

  • N225 dive, major top, CB tightening potential risk-off drags nL1N2RH1DE

  • 38.2% Fibo of Oct rise and Oct. 14 low at 113.21 remain pullback targets

  • Close above 2018's 114.55 high is needed to end correction

For more click on FXBUZ

Chart Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Oct 21 - 01:35 PM
  • Sterling slips in NY aft, -0.24% at 1.3790; Thurs range 1.3834-1.3787

  • Soft CBI data weighs on GBP specifically, risk in retreat lifts haven USD

  • GBP$ offer above 1.3830 holds; bulls regroup by daily cloud top nL1N2RH1EF

  • Pair slips 3rd day in a row abv 1.3830, supt by thin daily cloud in 1.3780s

  • Failure to cls abv 1.3831, 50% Fib of 1.4250-1.3412 may soften bulls resolve

  • Close abv 1.3834's trend high puts GBP's upper 30-d Bolli at 1.3893 in view

  • Below the cloud more significant res at 1.3725's 55-DMA, 10-DMA at 1.3701

  • Futures 0#FSS: hint at Nov BoE hike, Rtrs poll eyes Q1 '22 nL1N2RH1EF

  • EUR/GBP +0.13% to 0.8436, Thurs range 0.8443-23; Fri's UK ret sales, PMIs in focus

GBP Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Oct 21 - 01:00 PM

Credit Agricole CIB Research likes long EUR/GBP exposure via options.

"We believe that EUR/GBP has reached levels suggesting that the policy divergence between the ECB and the BoE has reached extremes and could correct in the coming months. Indeed, we expect the ECB to turn less dovish from here and the BoE to struggle to meet the already very hawkish market expectations. We therefore believe that EUR/GBP could recoup some of its recent losses," CACIB notes. 

"We build a low-cost option strategy to fully participate in any spot rally above 0.8550," CACIB adds. 

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Oct 21 - 11:35 AM
  • USD/CAD +0.15% at 1.2334 into Lon fix; Thursday's range 1.2345-1.2289

  • Pair dipped to 4-mos low o/n, with oil rise; higher infl, rates boost CAD

  • BoC expected to further ramp up policy normalization aid CAD rise

  • USD bears in control, supt at 1.2289's o/n low, 1.2257 lwr 21-d Bolli

  • Bulls need a rise above the falling 10-DMA by 1.2399, 200-DMA at 1.25 to slow the bearish tide

CAD Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Oct 21 - 10:45 AM

UOB Research discusses AUD/USD technical outlook and sees a scope for further gains over the coming weeks.

"AUD/USD moved above 0.7478 on Tuesday (19 Oct) and quickly extended its gain (high of 0.7545 at the time of writing). At this stage, we view the current AUD/USD strength as part of a recovery and not the start of a major reversal. That said, weekly MACD has just turned positive and this suggests that there is room for the recovery to extend further. The resistance level of note is at the declining trend-line, currently at 0.7660, this level is also close to the top of the weekly Ichimoku cloud," UOB notes. ,

"Looking ahead, a clear break of 0.7660 would increase the risk of a sustained rally in AUD/USD (the next resistance above 0.7660 is at 0.7780). On the downside, support is at 0.7350. The bottom of the Ichimoku cloud (and minor trend-line) at 0.7210 is not expected to come into the picture within these couple of month," UOB adds. 


UOB Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Oct 21 - 10:42 AM

AUD/USD rallied to a fresh 3-month high Thursday but after hitting 0.75465 it erased those gains, and longs might have to deal with a correction driven by investors' Fed expectations and emerging technical signals.

Below-estimate weekly and continuing claims nL1N2RG2F0 indicate the U.S. labor market continues to tighten.
That tightening likely induced investors to pull forward Fed rate hike expectations.
June 2022 eurodollar prices EDM2 are falling again and look set to test the Oct.
18 low, a break of which could reinforce investor perceptions of risks that the Fed could tighten sooner.

Technical signals emerged on daily charts that might drive AUD/USD longs to take some profit.
AUD/USD's rally stalled just short of the bull channel top on daily charts and the 200-DMA.
It halted just short of the key 50% Fibo of the 0.8007-0.7107 decline.
Daily RSI diverged on Thursday's high and a daily inverted hammer candle formed.

The thin daily cloud could become magnetic as thin clouds have a tendency to do.

The risk that AUD/USD corrects lower and tests key support near 0.7300/25 is now increasing.

For more click on FXBUZ

audusd Click here

edm2 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Oct 21 - 09:34 AM

Bank of America Global Research takes stock of rates markets after the sell-off. 

"The chart of the day offers a neat summary of the extremes to which the GBP and NZD rate markets have repriced, with hikes now expected to be followed by cuts within the next few years," BofA notes.

"Beyond the question of dislocations in the front-end of the curve, we ask ourselves whether what is being priced makes sense cross market, as well as in terms of the decomposition of the move into real yields and breakevens, as well as term premia and rate expectations. To us, the UK stands out on all accounts: negative term premia and real yields, elevated rate expectations and breakevens. EUR and USD rates look largely fair. AUD rate expectations have room to recover," BofA adds. 


BofA Global Research
By eFXdata  —  Oct 21 - 08:54 AM

MUFG Research sees a scope for further JPY weakness over the coming weeks.

" The US dollar has been reversing gains recorded last month. The best performing G10 currencies (click here) this month have been the high beta commodity currencies of the NOK (+5.2% vs. USD), NZD (+4.2%), AUD (+3.8%) and CAD (+2.9%); and the GBP (+2.5%). The commodity currencies in particular have now more than fully reversed their losses from last month. In contrast, the EUR, CHF and JPY have still not reversed last month’s losses," MUFG notes. 

"In a clear sign of JPY specific weakness it is the only G10 currency that has extended losses for the second consecutive month as it has weakened sharply across the board. The JPY has been hit hardest by the sharp adjustment higher in global yields and energy prices since the summer. The more recent reversal in USD performance has coincided with the rebound in global equity," MUFG adds. 

MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Oct 21 - 07:36 AM
  • AUD/USD hits a fresh 3-mo high in Asia, 0.75465 trades then sellers emerge

  • Europe drives AUD/USD down to 0.7477, soured risk provides bears a tail wind

  • Equities ESv1, copper HGv1, iron-ore DCIOc2, AUD/JPY all trade lower

  • Broad based US$ buys add to risk-off, USD/CNH rallies above 6.4000

  • AUD/USD opens NY near 0.7490 & tech signals are warning longs

  • Daily inverted hammer candle, diverging daily RSI warn a correction possible

  • Bearish daily signals emerge near key technical impediments

  • Emerge near 50% Fib 0.8007-0.7107, 200-DMA, top of bull channel on day chart

  • For more click on FXBUZ

audusd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Oct 21 - 05:38 AM
  • RBA Gov Lowe speaks late Thur, likely to counter market rate hike pricing

  • Dovish rhetoric likely to present a dip buying opportunity

  • AUD/USD profit takes before 200-dma 0.7564 in Asia, sub 0.7500 since

  • Risk aversion weighs now, support Wed low 0.7465, bids touted 100-dma 0.7403

  • Options shedding volatility and downside risk premiums all week

  • 1-month risk reversal sold 0.7, 3-month 1.0 AUD puts - lowest since June

  • 1-month implied volatility recent low 8.5, before mild demand Thur

  • Flows show more buyers of options to benefit from gains toward 0.7600 n/t

For more click on FXBUZ

AUD=D3 Click here

AUD/USD option risk reversals Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Oct 21 - 05:11 AM
  • Lack of bounce off the 0.8424-25 lows doesn't bode well for EUR/GBP longs

  • However, we maintain a long from 0.8425 for 0.8640 with a stop at 0.8380

  • Doji candles hint at bears' indecision, which could favour the long side

  • Nov 1 0.8557-59 cloud twist also fighting the bull's corner

  • Key topside levels at 0.8465 and 0.8479, 10DMA and 23.6% Fibo

  • Below 0.8424 could trigger drop to Feb 2020 sub-0.83 lows

    For more click on FXBUZ

EUR/GBP Trader:

EUR/GBP daily candle chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Oct 21 - 03:56 AM
  • In 2021 EUR/USD has traded a series of slowly falling ranges

  • The last of these (rough 1.16-19) held between June and September

  • As 1.16 also represented longer-term lows a break should have sparked vol

  • Volatility remained low, break uninspiring, another range likely to develop

  • If this range is close to 1.15-18 then EUR/USD is already on neutral ground

  • If the 1.16 break has more impact, range may be lower, perhaps 1.14-17

  • Pair's rise has slowed since trading 1.1670, 38.2% drop from Sep's high

  • Correction target for drop since June Fed meeting is 1.1756

  • Options suggest no big movement, spec shorts are likely to grow

EURUSD Click here

EURUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Oct 21 - 03:04 AM
  • GBP/USD falls to 1.3796 as equity losses weigh on risk-sensitive pound

  • Nikkei closed down 1.87% nL4N2RH1GN. European stocks open lower

  • See: nL4N2RH1PX. U.S. equity futures negative. 1.3796 = intra-day low

  • Cable matched Tuesday's one-month high of 1.3834 in Asia, before risk soured

  • 1.3743 was Wednesday's low, after slightly below forecast UK Sept CPI data

  • UK borrowing slightly lower than forecast in September nL8N2RH1TE

GBPUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Oct 21 - 02:40 AM
  • Minimum retrace off 1.1909-1.1522 met at 1.1670 Tues

  • Bulls can now target the key 50% Fibo at 1.1716: pivotal level

  • Tight ranges but bull bias holding and our long in play

  • We target 1.1745 with a stop just below 1.1600-EBS pricing

  • 14-day momentum and RSI confirming gains

  • Last week's hammer candle (bullish) set to be confirmed this week

  • Key supp. Weekly cloud base 1.1557 and 200DMA 1.1571

    For more click on FXBUZ

EUR/USD Trader

EUR/USD daily candle chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Oct 21 - 02:20 AM
  • Potential short-term top in place at 1.3834, Oct 19 high

  • Early Thurs high 1.3834 and price drifting lower

  • We are long at 1.3767: will monitor action at 1.38 with a view to squaring

  • Both daily momentum and RSI have turned lower

  • Risk of a retrace to 1.3734, minimum correction off 1.3412-1.3834

  • However, weeklies bullish with gain consolidation above wkly cloud

  • Cloud parameters 1.3157-1.3695: Wkly momentum flips positive, RSI climbing

    For more click on FXBUZ

GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD daily candle chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Oct 20 - 11:22 PM

  • Trades +0.05% at the top of a tight 1.3822-1.3830 range with moderate flow

  • Bank of England to raise rates to 0.25% in Q1, or sooner poll nL8N2RG245

  • UK pay awards set to regain pre-pandemic pace - XpertHR nL8N2RG39N

  • Private sector employers expect 2.5% pay increases to Aug 22 - no huge jump

  • Charts; 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages climb, 21 day Bollinger bands expand

  • Daily momentum studies head north - positive signals continue to build

  • Targets 1.3831 break, 50% of 2021 fall, and test of 1.3913 September high

  • Close below 1.3705 rising 10 DMA needed to undermine the topside bias

For more click on FXBUZ

gbp Oct 21 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Oct 20 - 10:51 PM
  • EUR/USD opened at 1.1650 when USD eased during US session

  • It grinded higher through the morning as the USD retained an offered tone

  • Heading into the afternoon it is at the session high at 1.1666

  • Resistance is at the 38.2 of the 1.18909/1.1522 move at 1.1670

  • A clear break targets 1.1715 where the 50% retrace and 55-day MA converge

  • Support is at the 21-day MA at 1.1615 and break eases upward pressure

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Oct 20 - 09:21 PM
  • AUD/USD has traded above 0.7530 to a fresh 3-month high

  • Key resistance at 0.7555/65 now in focus as Aus bond yields climb

  • 10-year Aus yield is around 1.83% - 16 BPs higher than US 10-year yield

  • The 50% of the 2021 high/low is at 0.7556 and 200-day MA is at 0.7565

  • The strong resistance may slow the relentless aUD/USD gains for now

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Oct 20 - 09:02 PM

The EUR/USD bounce has entered its second week, led by a weaker U.S. dollar, and has further to run technically.
In the bigger picture, this is a healthy correction in the primary downtrend.

The outlook for interest rate differentials remains supportive of the USD in the longer term. The Federal Reserve is on track to taper this year despite moderating U.S.
economic growth, as inflationary and wages pressures build nL1N2RG2BX.
In Europe, inflationary pressure is seen as transitory nW1N2LK03OnF9N2PW017and the European Central Bank is about to lose its most prominent hawk nL8N2RG2LK.

Yet there are short-term negatives for U.S. growth expectations and potentially the USD. Supply chain issues, a major contributor to inflationary pressures, appear set to persist for longer than initially thought nL1N2RF2LD.

While the market is confident that President Joe Biden will deliver a stimulus package, uncertainty over its size, composition and timing could undermine confidence nL1N2RG2VD.

Technically the short-term EUR/USD outlook is positive, though the primary downtrend since May remains in place. Since mid-July, EUR/USD has swung between the upper and lower 21-day Bollinger bands four times, pivoting around the 21-day moving average.

EUR/USD rejected the lower band in early October and closed above the 21-DMA on Tuesday.
The break was sustained on Wednesday, suggesting that the next move is a test of the falling upper band, at 1.1726 on Thursday.

For more click on FXBUZ

eur Oct 21 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Oct 20 - 07:12 PM
  • EUR/USD opens 0.15% higher after failing to match Tuesday's high at 1.1670

  • USD broadly weakened but most of the losses were against risk currencies

  • Resistance is at the 38.2 of the 1.1909/1.1522 move at 1.1670

  • This level needs to break soon or sideways trading will return

  • Break above 1.1670 targets 1.1615 where the 55-day MA & 50% retrace converge

  • Support is at the 21-day MA at 1.1615 and the 10-day MA at 1.1599

  • A break below 1.1595 would suggest a short-term top is in place

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Oct 20 - 06:23 PM
  • AUD/USD gained another 0.52% and is comfortably above 0.7500 as Asia opens

  • Buoyant equity & commodity markets underpin, as high Aus yields also support nL1N2RG2X4

  • Key resistance at 0.7555/65 in focus as the first objective of trend higher

  • The 50% retrace of the year's high/low is at 0.7556 and 200-day MA at 0.7565

  • Support is at former resistance at 0.7475/85 and 10-day MA at 0.7414

  • Key will be whether Aus bond yields continue to outpace rise in US yields

  • Lofty AUD/USD levels leave it susceptible to a negative mood change in risk

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Oct 20 - 03:18 PM

The dollar index tumbled on Wednesday after a rebound attempt failed to surpass the 21-day moving average, reaffirming its retreat from this month's highs as equities gains dimmed safe-haven demand for the U.S. currency and traders pruned Fed rate hike pricing.

The Fed's beige book report ahead of its Nov.
2-3 meeting reiterated the supply-side challenges including labor scarcity, cost pressures, disruptions and price hikes nNAQN04RNQ, though markets had already priced in much of this.

The dollar is facing an historically bearish setup presented by U.S. CPI now near its highest since 2008 and real 2-year Treasury yields near their most negative since 1980's post-dollar float low nL1N2RG1FR.

EUR/USD was up 0.2% after an early dip to the just cleared 21-DMA support on news Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann was leaving at year-end, perhaps making room for a less hawkish replacement nL8N2RG2LK.

The rebound from Wednesday's 1.1617 low on EBS remains below the 30-DMA and 38.2% Fibo of the September-October slide at 1.1666/70, but upside risks appear to be growing nL1N2RG19Z.

Adding to the sense the dollar's broader recovery has reached meaningful resistance and warranted a correction, was USD/JPY's 0.15% drop after a fleeting breach of long-term resistance and ahead of late-2017's high and major options barrier defense at 115.

USD/JPY is ripe for a retracement of October's 110.82-114.695 advance, with the 38.2% Fibo at last Thursday's 113.21 low an attractive target nL1N2RG13R.

Though USD/JPY is generally helped by risk-on flows, the drag from the drop in 5-year Treasury-JGB yields spreads more than offset it.

This comes as Japanese officials have been voicing concerns about the weakening of the yen in the context of soaring import prices and a slowdown in exports nL4N2RE057, though FX intervention looks far less likely than rhetoric geared toward keeping yen losses in check.

GBP/USD was up 0.24%, reversing an overnight pullback tied a slightly lower-than-forecast UK inflation print, and back up by the 50% Fibo of the June-September slide, that's also the weekly kijun, and Tuesday's recovery high at 1.3831/34.

Cable was on track to close above the 100-DMA for the first time since Aug.
5, being supported by aggressive BOE rate hike pricing nL1N2RG1DE.

The pound's advance was undeterred by sharply rising UK COVID cases, and related deaths now at their highest since March nL8N2RG1K5.

AUD/USD was up 0.64% and hit a 3-1/2 month high as a risk and commodities proxy and in anticipation of roughly 75bp of RBA hikes next year nL1N2RG27J.

USD/CAD fell 0.44% with Canadian inflation hitting an 18-year high in September nL1N2RG137.

Ether's 6.3% advance led bitcoin's 3.8% rise to fresh record highs nL1N2RG1GH in the wake of Tuesday's strong debut for bitcoin futures ETF, and as risk-on flows and inflation fears work in favor of cryptos.

Unexpected drops in U.S. crude and petrol product inventories sent WTI to a 7-year high.

claims, Philly Fed and existing homes sales top Thursday's releases.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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