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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Jeremy Boulton  —  May 16 - 02:40 AM
  • Downside option cover for EUR/USD is much reduced below 1.0350

  • There is very little existing option interest below parity

  • Vols have risen but remain historically low

  • Benchmark vol reached 13 after last similar EUR/USD decline in 2014-15

  • One-month vol is currently 10. Little interest to cover risk big movement

  • A fall below 2017 low at 1.0340 should fuel big rise in vol

  • A drop under parity may spark panic and a surge in hedging requirements

  • FX traders are betting EUR/USD goes up nL2N2X80A2



EURUSD and vol Click here

EURUSD expiries Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  May 16 - 02:15 AM
  • Week to May 10 traders buy EUR/USD dip IMM/FX

  • Biggest one-week positioning swing favour euro since August last year

  • Since taper talk in May 2021 traders have repeatedly bought, pair drops

  • EUR/USD has hit new low at 1.0349 EBS since latest long established

  • When traders are long weigh downside risk is exceptionally high



EURUSD and longs Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  May 16 - 02:10 AM
  • Offered market early Monday having put in a 1.2296 recovery high

  • Reversal warning: Frid key day, higher high, lower low, cls abv prev. cls

  • However, failure to gain confirmation today keeps bears in control

  • 14-day negative momentum has faded but RSI rejected at 30 line from above

  • There is still scope for an adjustment and we have a bid near 1.2083 Fibo

  • If filled would loo for minimum correction off 1.3290-1.2156 at 1.2424

    For more click on FXBUZ
















GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD daily candle chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 15 - 11:40 PM
  • AUD/USD opened 0.6935 after rising 1.17% Friday when risk assets rallied

  • AUD/JPY buying out of Tokyo sent the AUD/USD up to 0.6960 at one stage

  • AUD/USD eased after the AUD/JPY flows dried up and slipped back to 0.6930

  • China retail sales and IP badly missed expectations and AUD/USD fell again nL2N2X8047

  • E-minis were up 0.4% early and fell to -0.85% after the China data

  • AUD/USD stalled around 0.6900 before falling to 0.6873

  • It is trading around 0.6880/85 into the afternoon session

  • Support at Friday's 0.6859 low and the trend low made on Thursday at 0.6829

  • AUD/USD sellers tipped at 0.6960/75 with resistance @ 10-day MA @ 0.7005

  • Friday's relief rally looking more like a brief correction in trend lower

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 15 - 10:10 PM
  • China retail sales and IP crater as COVID restriction took their toll nB9N2WD00M

  • AUD/USD fell to 0.6908 and is now settling just around 0.6915

  • Weak China data is a weight o the AUD and will negatively impact commodities

  • AUD/USD hourly support at 0.6900/05 and break targets Friday's 0.6856 low

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 15 - 09:55 PM
  • AUD/USD is off to a whippy start and is around 0.6925 after hitting 0.6960

  • Move higher was due to AUD/JPY buying as cross rose 0.50% at one stage

  • AUD/JPY is now back below Friday's close at 89.65 as buying is finished

  • E-minis slightly negative after being up 0.50% at the start of the session

  • China retail sales and IP will be out shortly and could impact AUD/USD

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 15 - 08:05 PM

  • -0.1% as the USD firms early, but E-mini S&P is up 0.5%, should cap the USD

  • No sign of a compromise in the Ukraine-Russia conflict nL5N2X700R

  • Finland and Sweden edge towards joining NATO defence alliance nL2N2X70EB

  • Sustained euro strength unlikely until there is hope of a Ukraine compromise

  • Charts; daily momentum studies, 5, 10 and 21 day moving averages slide

  • 21 day Bolli bands fall, bearish setup suggests a break of 1.0340 2017 low

  • Close above 1.0597 21 DMA to end the downside bias - no close option strikes

  • 1.0349 NY low and 1.0460, 38.2% May fall initial support, resistance

For more click on FXBUZ



eur May 16 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 15 - 06:40 PM
  • AUD/USD trading at 0.6945 after closing +1.17% on Friday at 0.6937

  • Beaten down assets recovered on Friday after selling exhaustion set in nL2N2X51U8

  • News that China will start easing back on Shanghai COVID lockdown may help nL5N2X501I

  • AUD/USD resistance is @ the 10-day MA @ 0.7011 and break would ease pressure

  • Sellers are tipped at 0.6950/65 which may impede AUD/USD recovery

  • Key will be follow-through in equities and commodities after Friday's gains

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  May 15 - 06:40 PM
  • USD/JPY cautiously bid in early Asia as risk rally attempts a tepid recovery

  • Supported by Friday Wall Street rally & higher UST yields; S&P E-Mini +0.45%

  • Powell's push back against speculation of more aggressive hikes lifts mood

  • Signs emerge that U.S. inflation is beginning to ebb, although at slow pace

  • Fed-BOJ policy divergence will continue to limit USD downside nL2N2X505K

  • Resistance 129.45-50, 129.90-130.00, support 128.95-129.00, 128.50-55

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Market volatility: Click here

ICE inflation expectations index : Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  May 13 - 03:35 PM

  • USD/JPY's overbought uptrend from March finally corrected this week

  • Thur's drop toward kijun got RSIs midrange vs highest since 2001 in March

  • Rebound's probed the daily tenkan at 129.44, but capped at Wed's 129.455 low

  • Weekly on-close sell signal below 128.62 has been averted

  • Dip-buying bias while above late April low near 127 and 23.6% Fibo at 126.90

  • Close above Thur's 130.05 high would favor a retest of the 131.35 May peak

For more click on FXBUZ


Chart Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  May 13 - 02:45 PM

The safe-haven dollar and yen backed off this week's risk-off highs on Friday as beleaguered equity and risk markets recovered from recent losses, while EUR/USD narrowly averted a break of 2017's 1.0340 low, its weakest since 2003, before bouncing into the black.

The yen, a big favorite earlier in the week as stocks sank along with Treasury yields, fell the most against the dollar and other rebounding currencies on Friday, as Treasury yields and stocks rebounded from key support levels.

Whether EUR/USD's 2017 lows and the technical rebounds in Treasury yields and stocks will hold is the question.
Nasdaq's low on Thursday came near the 50% Fibo of the entire pandemic range.

There remains no end in sight for the expanding palette of risks emanating from the war in Ukraine nL3N2WY13J, Chinese growth nL2N2X50HLnL3N2X3193 and COVID lockdown risks nL5N2X501I and the impact that Fed tightening to tame inflation may have on domestic nL2N2X50VZ and global growth prospects.

In Friday's absence of fresh global derisking flows, the bounce in Treasury yields failed to help the dollar because the market is having trouble pricing in much more than a 3% fed funds peak and another 2% of hikes before year-end.

The other dollar restraint is the 2018 prior Fed tightening cycle highs in 2-year and 10-year yields at 2.98% and 3.26% that were nearly reached earlier this week.

EUR/USD was up 0.15% after making its 1.0349 trend low on EBS, but couldn't get above Friday's 1.04195 high from early in the day, largely because Bund-Treasury yield spreads remained nearer to session lows nL2N2X514K and the options market continues to favor euro puts versus calls.

USD/JPY rebounded 0.8% amid the rebound in Treasury-JGB yields spreads and the reversal of risk aversion flows that boosted the yen far and wide earlier this week.

The rebound from Thursday's correction low by the daily kijun has been slowed by the tenkan, just below the 129.455 Friday EBS high at Wednesday's low.

USD/JPY will need a bigger rebound in Treasury yields and Fed rate hike pricing to clear the 131.35 20-year highs from Monday nL2N2X517X.

Sterling gained 0.2% after making a fleeting new 2-year low at 1.2156, aided by the recovery in risk acceptance and oversold pressures, with lofty net spec sterling shorts only second to yen shorts among the majors.

Nonetheless, the 1.36% spread between 2-year Treasury and Gilts yields and the UK's more daunting macroeconomic issues nL2N2X513N suggest sterling rebounds are selling opportunities.

Aussie and other high-beta currencies won back much of Thursday's losses, but barely dented April-May losses.

USD/CNH fell 0.35%, with some glimmer of hopes that China's COVID lockdowns might soon be reduced.

Bitcoin and ether were up about 2.5% and 5.5%, trimming huge May losses aggravated by the recent stablecoin collapse nL2N2X5081.

Tuesday's U.S. retail sales and impact from rising prices are next week's focus.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  May 13 - 01:45 PM
  • Sterling firm into NY close +0.33% at 1.2240; NorAm range 1.2248-1.2156

  • GBP$ off early NorAm slip to new 2022 low at 1.2156, USD haven flows unwind

  • Sterling bulls woes continue as new 2-year low at 1.2156 probed nL2N2X513N

  • Preliminary UMich data well below f/c hints Fed rate view may temper

  • Supt at lwr 30-h Bolli at 1.2170, 2022 low 1.2156, May 18 2020 low 1.2075

  • Res Fri high 1.2248, 100-HMA at 1.2276, falling 10-DMA 1.2365

  • EUR/GBP -0.02% at 0.8504, Friday range 0.8528-03; USD haven unwind lifts GBP, EUR symmetrically

GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 13 - 01:30 PM

ING Research maintains a bearish bias on EUR/USD and still sees a scope for a move towards parity over the coming weeks.

"EUR/USD broke the key 1.0500 support yesterday as a rocky risk environment continued to favour a stronger dollar while uncertainty around the implications of the Ukraine war in Europe remains elevated," ING notes. Now, the next major support to watch is the 1.0340 January 2017 low. A break below such a level would make the risk of EUR/USD hitting parity quite material," ING notes. 

"As we discussed last week, we wouldn’t be shocked to see the pair at 1.00 in the near term. Indeed, after losing the 1.0500 “anchor”, EUR/USD volatility may well increase again," ING adds. 

Source:
ING Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  May 13 - 10:35 AM

GBP/USD extended recent losses on Friday, falling to a two-year low of 1.2156, with intermittent rebounds serving to prepare bears for further moves lower, leaving the spotlight on the May 18, 2020 low at 1.2075 next.

Current macro and geopolitical conditions present few obstacles for cable shorts, with the BoE intent on a campaign of only gentle rate hikes in the face of 7% inflation -- far out-stripping its 2% target -- as it braces for economic downturn.

In contrast, the more aggressive Fed FEDWATCH is showing no signs of backing down from its inflation fight, adding to bearish GBP/USD momentum, while China's COVID-related lockdowns and the Ukraine conflict sap global growth and further undermine risk-sensitive sterling.

Inability to resolve post-Brexit tensions over the Northern Ireland protocol issue are an additional irritant to sterling sentiment.

GBP/USD bears will probably remain in control until the news flow changes or a policy shift from the Fed or BoE occurs.

Cable was last trading flat at 1.2204.
A close below the May 18, 2020 low at 1.2075 would put 1.1778, the March 26, 2020 low, in bears' sights.

For more click on FXBUZ


GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 13 - 10:45 AM

Bank of America Global Research discusses USD/JPY technical outlook and flags a double top pattern for a move towards 125-121.

"A peak in USDJPY has been made with a double top formation. The top is of tactical size with potential to evolve into something bigger given overbought conditions on longer term charts are now starting to correct," BofA notes.

"First support area is about 126-125.21. Notable Fibonacci retracements include 123.05 (50%) and 121.10 (61.8%). The cloud lines are rising quickly, are difficult to estimate where they could be tested as support and should be watched this month," BofA adds.

c46.PNG

Source:
BofA Global Research
By Rob Howard  —  May 13 - 09:35 AM
  • Cable hit 1.2156 at 1326 GMT after breaking below 1.2165 (Thursday's low)

  • 1.2156 is lowest level since May 2020 (1.2075 was the low that month)

  • USD supported by expectation of 50 bps Fed rate hikes in June and July

  • UK recession fears and Brexit concerns are helping weigh on the pound

  • Raft of UK data due next week, including April CPI Wednesday nL2N2X50WR

  • CFTC data at 1930 GMT may show 10th consecutive weekly rise in net GBP short

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 13 - 09:30 AM

ANZ Research discusses the current market conditions and maintains a cautious bias on risk assets in the near-term.

"Until US CPI conclusively eases, the upward limit for interest rates remains undetermined, raising the likelihood of a hard landing. Worsening the outlook is the ongoing Ukraine conflict and China’s hard-line pursuit of a zero-COVID strategy. The latter has helped to take the heat out of commodities, while equities worldwide are experiencing selling pressure reminiscent of early 2020," ANZ notes. 

"In this environment, economic fundamentals are no longer the focus, as a flow-driven “sell the rally” mentality takes precedence. Consequently, risk assets and currencies will face significant volatility and find it challenging to maintain consistent upward momentum. USD dominance is likely to persist for the time being, as the euro faces geopolitical pressure," ANZ adds. 

Source:
ANZ Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 13 - 08:30 AM
Societe Generale Research discusses the USD outlook and maintains a bullish bias over the coming months.
 
"Only when yields peak will the cycle break, whether that peak comes because of a deeper risk correction or simply because the market has finally priced in enough rate hikes. Looking at the current economic data, and listening to central bankers, it seems highly implausible that this latest peak, in yields/spreads/dollar, will be the last," SocGen notes.
 
"The US economy has plenty of momentum for now, and the driver of inflation has switched from supply-chain issues, or even the surge in post-pandemic demand, to the tightness of the labour market. That can only be solved by weaker labour market data and so, weaker growth. We aren’t there yet. In the meantime, the Dollar goes on," SocGen adds. 
Source:
Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  May 13 - 06:40 AM
  • Cable elicited support at 1.2175 after falling from 1.2229 (intra-day high)

  • 1.2175 was Thursday's NY session low; 10 pips above Thursday's two-year low

  • UK recession fears and Brexit concerns are helping weigh on the pound

  • U.S. delegation to travel to Europe over Northern Ireland worries - Guardian

  • See: nL5N2X51QI. DUP says it will block NI's new legislature nL2N2X50AD

  • CFTC data at 1930 GMT may show 10th consecutive weekly rise in net GBP short

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  May 13 - 06:10 AM
  • Yen set to snap nine weeks of losses nL3N2X50VC

  • The USD/JPY chart could get even more negative nL2N2X50CA

  • A daily close under the 128.00 Fibo would weaken the outlook

  • 128.00 Fibo is a 76.4% retrace of the recent 126.97-131.35 rise

  • USD/JPY has seen a 128.30-129.35 range, according to EBS prices

  • EUR/JPY's 30/60-day long correlations with USD/JPY well above +0.50

  • The two currency pairs close in the same direction more often than not

Weekly Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  May 13 - 05:00 AM

The European Central Bank's fight against inflation will get tougher if EUR/USD drops below 1.00 for the first time in 20 years, given that commodities are priced in dollars.

The probability of a EUR/USD parity test before the next ECB meeting on June 9 has risen following Thursday's risk aversion-spurred fall to an EBS low 14 pips shy of 1.0340 (2017 low).
There is plenty of clear blue water under 1.00, with 0.8563 marking the 2002 EBS low (0.8228 was the all-time EBS low in 2000).

Last week's CFTC data showed IMM speculators flipped to their first net EUR short position since January in the week ended May 3 -- although the net EUR short of 6,378 contracts was tiny in comparison to net JPY and GBP short positions of 100,794 and 73,813 contracts respectively. nL2N2WY22J

The flash estimate of euro zone inflation for this month will be released on May 31.
Euro zone inflation hit a record high of 7.5% in April. nL2N2WR0O5

Related comment: nL2N2X40RY

For more click on FXBUZ


EURUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  May 13 - 04:10 AM
  • Squaring after big Thurs drop plus improved sentiment underpinning

  • Optimism resurfaced in Asia, E-mini S&P +1.13%, Nikkei +2.5%, AsiaxJP +1.6%

  • This theme leading into a positive open for DAX, CAC and FTSE

  • U.S. bond yields firmer but still down from Monday's high: 10s @ 2.9149%

  • Dollar index drifts off its 1.0492 20-year high but no reversal signal

  • Only a modest recovery so far and negative backdrop will continue to weigh

  • Dollar has not finished with Europe and EUR/USD remains vulnerable

  • A minimum correction off the 1.1185-1.0354 Mar 31-May 12 drop is at 1.0550

  • Little support until 1.0340 Jan 2017 low: possibly the gateway to parity

    For more click on FXBUZ






EUR/USD daily candle chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  May 13 - 02:55 AM
  • EUR/USD's bear cycle from the March 31 1.1185 high continues

  • The downside bias is intact as 14-day momentum is negative = bearish

  • Expectation is for an eventual retest of the 2017 1.0340 low

  • Below which would accelerate losses further under 1.0300 psychological level

  • We have placed a sell order at 1.0440, well ahead of tenkan line at 1.0498

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous nL2N2X40IW

Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  May 13 - 02:45 AM
  • Big 1.2200 option expiry helps to anchor cable after Thursday fall to 1.2165

  • The size of the 1.2200 strike for 10am ET NY cut is GBP 724 mln nL2N2X5098

  • 1.2165 = two-year low, courtesy of risk aversion and negative UK March GDP

  • Recovery rally from 1.2165 topped out just shy of 1.2252 (July 2020 low)

  • USD supported by expectation of 50 bps Fed hikes in June/July nL2N2X433H

  • CFTC data at 1930 GMT may show 10th consecutive weekly rise in net GBP short

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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