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Apr 01 - 04:55 PM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-US Recap: EUR/USD Slips But Yen Bears Brunt Of Solid US Jobs Data

By Paul Spirgel  —  Apr 01 - 02:35 PM

The dollar index added to overnight gains on Friday as markets overlooked below-forecast U.S. non-farm payrolls in an employment report that was otherwise strong enough to support recent bets on aggressive policy tightening by the Fed.

Though the increase of 431,000 came in below the Reuters consensus of 490,000, February's numbers were revised higher and the unemployment rate fell, while earnings rose on a monthly and annual basis.

ISM manufacturing data showed significant rises in prices paid and employment which helped shift the Fed rate hike path higher.
Fedwatch on Eikon increased the odds for 50bp rate hikes at the upcoming May and June meetings.

EUR/USD slipped slightly, further away from Thursday highs, after the payrolls data, aided by Russia-Ukraine hostilities.

USD/JPY bore the brunt of the post-payrolls dollar strength, with USD/JPY rising to 123.04.
Friday’s cheery U.S. payrolls data and hawkish Fed rate-path view weighed on the yen as the BOJ remains on hold.

The diverging Fed-BOJ rate expectations have traders targeting a return to recent USD/JPY highs above 125.

GBP/USD slipped after the data, but support was found just below 1.31 for the fourth out of 5 sessions this week.
Recent dovish BoE talk continues to weigh on GBP/USD as traders focus their investments elsewhere, particularly commodity currencies and economies seen gearing up for policy normalization rather than paring rate outlooks.

USD/CAD rose slightly, ending NorAm +0.16% at 1.2527, a touch below its session high at 1.2538.
CAD remains buoyed by high commodities, despite Friday’s 1.18% dip in oil.
The BoC is also seen keeping pace with the Fed in 2022, which helped mitigate CAD weakness.

AUD/USD gained 0.11% despite Friday’s commodity weakness.
Rising odds for RBA rate hikes in Q2 2022 provided a boost.

ETH +5.6% and BTC +2.1% were firming into the close, as traders shrugged off early weakness on EU regulatory concerns.

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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