• EUR/USD -0.05% Tue as Middle East war re-escalation continues to weigh

• Iran attacks ships and UAE oil port, puts U.S.-Iran ceasefire in doubt

• EUR break below 1.1650 support would trigger accelerated sell-off

• U.S. Mar international trade value data and Apr PMIs due Tue

• Euro zone Mar producer prices due Wed (poll +3.3% m/m, +1.8% y/y)

• Range Asia 1.1680-9375, support 1.1650 1.1409, resistance 1.1850 1.1930
EUR daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.2% Tue in subdued trading as RBA decision dominates agenda

• RBA meeting outcome 0430 GMT, 25 bps OCR hike expected, dialogue crucial

• RBA hike & hawkish guidance may spur challenge of 0.7250-85 resistance

• AU Apr S&P PMIs: composite 50.4 (prior 50.1), services 50.7 (prior 50.3)

• U.S.-Iran ceasefire in doubt after Iran attacks ships and UAE oil port

• U.S. Mar international trade value data and Apr PMIs due Tue

• Range Asia 0.7153-71, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY hovers near resistance at 157.30-35 after closing 0.1% higher Mon

• Recovery attempts have met strong rejection here since Japan intervened Thu

• Has led to suspicion that Tokyo is intervening to cap USD at 157.30, 100-DMA

• Iran war escalation, higher oil and U.S. yields may force Japan rethink

• Pricing out of Fed rate cut bets in 2026 likely to limit USD downside

• Further resistance at 157.50, 158.00-10; support 156.80-85, 156.50-60

• Strong base at 155.45-50, 61.8% Fibo of Jan-April rally and recent lows

• Mon range 155.69-157.30, Asia 157.175-157.255; Japan markets closed Tue-Wed
Japan has recently had some success with currency interventions:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD -0.9% from Mon 0.5926 high amid U.S.-Iran war re-escalation

• RBNZ committee member Prasanna Gai reveals bias against hiking rates

• Futures pricing now implies 63.8% probability of no RBNZ OCR change in May

• Iran hits ships & UAE oil port in in wake of Trump's Strait of Hormuz plan

• NZD shies away from 0.5930 inflection point, downside potential increasing

• Crucial Q1 NZ unemployment update due Wed, Reuters poll consensus 5.4%

• Range NZ 0.58705-775, support 0.5680 0.5580, resistance 0.5930 0.6090-95
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD -0.6% from Mon 1.1760 high in wake of Middle East war escalation

• Iran hits ships & UAE oil port in response to Trump's Strait of Hormuz plan

• U.S. pushing forward with plan for 25% import tariffs on EU built cars

• EUR break below 1.1650 support would open significant downside potential

• Euro zone Apr HCOB manufacturing PMI 52.2 (in line with poll consensus)

• U.S. Mar factory orders +1.5% m/m (poll +0.5%) on military & AI spending

• Range Asia 1.1689-91, support 1.1650 1.1409, resistance 1.1850 1.1930
EUR Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Danske Research previews this week's US April jobs report on Friday.

"This week, the main focus will be on US April Jobs Report, which we expect to be relatively solid with NFP growth at +80k. ADP's weekly pulse estimates have pointed towards improving jobs growth over the reference period, but lack of new labour supply should limit the upside risks in upcoming NFP releases," Danske notes.

"We still see a good chance of the Fed eventually cutting rates during H2, and with essentially nothing priced in by year-end, relative rates could continue to support EUR/USD over coming few months especially if the ECB hikes in both June and July," Danske adds.

• AUD/USD -0.8% from Mon 0.7228 low after U.S.-Iran war ceasefire frays

• Iran hits commercial vessels in Strait of Hormuz and UAE oil port

• Brent crude jumps 5.3% to $114 a barrel, broad USD index +0.3%

• RBA meeting outcome 0430 GMT, 25 bps OCR hike anticipated, dialogue critical

• AUD downside potential muted pre-RBA, overnight lows unlikely to break

• U.S. Mar factory orders +1.5% m/m (poll +0.5%) on military & AI spending

• Overnight range 0.71535-994, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP$ near session low in NY afternoon trade, -0.31% at 1.3335; Mon range 1.3602-1.3514

• Middle East angst weighed broadly on risk as Strait of Hormuz heats up

• USD haven buying en vogue; oil (CLc1) +3.18%, US SP500 -0.4%, gold -2%

• Sterling unable to hold gains above 1.36 over last 3 trading sessions

• Marts focus shifting to Friday Apr US payroll data; NFP f/c +62k, Earnings y/y +3.8%

• GBP$ supt at bruised daily cloud base by 1.3520, Monday low 1.3514, 1.3473 the 100-DMA

• Res 1.3602 Monday high, 1.3658 Friday 10-week high, 1.3682 upper 30-d Bolli

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1705 after 1.1760 traded overnight, the pair rallied in early action

• 1.1720 was neared as the USD, US yields & oil softened after rallying overnight

• EUR/USD selling emerged again on reports Iran hit ships, UAE oil port

• USD rallied again, USD/CNH turned positive & gold, stocks traded lower as risk soured

• EUR/USD hit 1.1681 then bounced slightly, sat near 1.1695 late, was down -0.23%

• The fall stopped short of the 200-DMA and key 1.1650-1.1680 support zone

• Falling daily, monthly RSIs, pair's hold below the 10- & 21-DMAs are bearish signals
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research maintains a structural bullish bias on USD.

"We maintain a broadly constructive view on the currency from here:

We think that investors may be overly optimistic about the prospects for a quicker abatement of the Middle Eastern tensions. A continuing blockade of the flow of energy could hurt global growth prospects and erode investors’ risk appetite, in a boost to the safe-haven USD," CACIB notes.

"We expect the US economy to outperform the economies of energy importers even if the US-Iran tensions are resolved. This much could keep global equity investors invested in the US. While worries about the US fiscal outlook may resurface, the resilient growth backdrop should offset these to a degree as was the case in 2025.

We believe that the Fed would remain on hold for an extended period under Kevin Warsh because the war in Iran could keep US inflation uncomfortably high in the next 12M. Persistent stagflation risks can also make the ECB and BoJ reluctant to hike rates aggressively. The USD rate advantage and thus the costs of short-USD hedges should remain considerable," CACIB adds.

GBP/USD is expected to remain tethered to geopolitical headlines in the near term, capped above 1.3600, as escalating conflict in the Middle East threatens to overshadow UK domestic fundamentals. Reports of Iranian attacks on U.S. warships in the Strait of Hormuz have abruptly undermined recent risk gains, once again thwarting bulls' attempts to establish a foothold above the 1.3600 level in recent sessions.

Despite a brief extension to a 10-week high of 1.3658 last Friday, sterling remains consolidative. The pair is currently navigating a range defined by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.3150-1.3658 move at 1.3468 and Friday’s peak at 1.3658. While the current spot price of 1.3562 remains above the 10-DMA at 1.3527 bulls remain likely to retain control.

Investors are now caught between the threat of an escalating U.S.-Iran conflict and critical economic milestones. While rising oil prices stoke global inflation fears, this Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls, forecast at +62k, and average earnings data, projected at +3.8% y/y, will be pivotal.

A stronger-than-expected print, for employment and earnings, could pivot the Federal Reserve toward a more hawkish tack, pressuring GBP/USD back toward the 200-day SMA at 1.3417. Conversely, a cooling of Middle East conflict tensions and inline payroll data could embolden bulls to re-target Friday's 1.3658 high and the Bollinger Upper Band at 1.3685 while ultimately aiming at the February 11 high of 1.3712. For now, the technical floor provided by bruised 100-DMA at 1.3473 and the Ichimoku Base Line at 1.3409 must hold to keep the medium-term recovery trend alive.
GBP Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research adopts a cautious bias on GBP ahead of the UK May 7th local elections.

"PM Starmer has been politically wounded ahead of the local elections taking place on 7th May. The parliamentary vote on whether Starmer should face an ethics inquiry was won by the government, but 15 Labour MPs voted with the opposition and 53 Labour MPs did not vote. His backbench support is weakening, and Labour is expected to perform poorly in the local elections. The risk of a leadership challenge is certainly growing and a move to remove Starmer over the summer ahead of the annual political party conference season is high. If this was to happen at a time of a further rise in crude oil prices, a renewed sell-off in the Gilt market could certainly begin to play a role in undermining pound performance," MUFG notes.

"Yields has played a role in providing the pound with support, but political instability and fiscal risks could well begin to de-stabilise the Gilt market once again and result in the pound losing its support from higher yields. We see scope for the pound to underperform the euro as the US dollar weakens more broadly," MUFG adds.

USD/JPY is holding up despite visible efforts by Japanese authorities to restrain further gains and calmer oil amid U.S. plans to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier, the yen was buoyed by a sharp surge in buying just beneath the 100-day moving average at 157.30, raising speculation of renewed intervention. Notably, trading volume also spiked near this level on Friday, reinforcing the market view that Japanese authorities may be attempting to cap upside in the pair, particularly with liquidity thin due to a Golden Week holiday.

Despite sizable volume spikes tied to suspected intervention over the past three sessions, USD/JPY has held up well. Bullish candles have formed above 155.50, a level that coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 152.28 February low to the 160.72 year-to-date high and aligns with an ascending trendline drawn from the April 2025 low.

The rebound opens a window for a renewed test of the 100-day moving average, provided the pair can hold above the lower Bollinger around 157.05, though bearish risk-reversals argue for a grinding advance beyond that level, keeping prices confined within an expanding Ichimoku cloud.

Selling into rallies toward the key 158 level remains a preferred strategy as renewed strength there could provoke a more forceful response from Japanese policymakers. That said, a deeper pullback below 155 and toward the YTD low may ultimately require a clearer easing in oil prices to materially weaken dollar support.
Yen


Yen


(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Bank of America Global Research introduces a new fair-value model for AUD.

"We introduce a new AUD/USD model and estimate 'fair value' to be around 0.7240, about 1% above the current spot rate of 0.7185 (as at 29 April 2026). Our new model is a useful tool which helps guide our AUD view particularly amid elevated volatility and headline-driven market moves," BofA notes.

"Overall, we remain constructive on AUD and see further upside by year-end (target: 0.74) amid upside risks (hawkish RBA vs Fed, possible US-China trade deal, potential increase to super fund hedge ratios)," BofA adds.

Goldman Sachs Research likes medium-term CHF vs EUR and  JPY.

"The bar remains high for a shift to outright support for CHF from the SNB, but we think a pivot away from outright selling would be sufficient to see renewed downside in EUR/CHF, especially if there is a shift in the intervention policy bias back to neutral at their June meeting," GS notes.

"An eventual rebound in gold prices, as our commodity strategists expect, should also add to downside pressure in the cross in our view, and we think the currency's precious metal terms of trade linkages have played an important role in recent price action. We see medium-term EUR/CHF downside expressions as better-suited to capturing these slower-moving themes, as well as CHF/JPY topside expressions, with macro fundamentals ultimately likely to overwhelm current intervention biases from both," GS adds.

• AUD/USD hit 0.7228 in Asia then steadily fell, slide accelerated in Europe

• Report US ship hit by two Iranian missles drove risk-off sentiment

• USD, US yields , oil all rallied sharply on the report

• Gold, silver, copper fell & USD/CNH bounced off its low to reinforce risk-off

• AUD/USD fell towards the 10-DMA, hit 0.7168, buyers then emerged

• USD, yields, oil softened after US official denied the missile strike

• AUD/USD rallied toward 0.7185 into NY's open, pair traded down -0.25%

• Falling daily, monthly RSIs & daily inverted hammer candle are concerns for bulls
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD -0.09%, USD/JPY -0.02%, GBP/USD -0.2%, AUD/USD -0.21%

• S&P E-minis -0.45%, DAX -0.71%, Nikkei 225 0.38%, FTSE -0.14%

• EUR/USD - Iran reports attack on US warship - lifts oil and USD

• Thin USD/JPY remains jittery as intervention worries persist

• Can UK election risks derail the GBP rally?

• AUD/USD consolidates 4-year highs as RBA hike bets underpin

• Option expiries . U.S. Open
(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Yen rises sharply before unwinding, intervention remains on radar of markets

• USD/JPY dropped from 157.25 to 155.69, on Monday and has since made recovery moves

• USD/JPY could climb further after last week's 'action', note the 155.50 golden ratio underpins

• 155.50 Fibo is a 61.8% retrace of the 152.28 to 160.72 (February to April) EBS rise

• Japan's Golden Week holiday, could cause wild swings in the yen owing to thin liquidity

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is back above +0.5 (pairs are moving in tandem)

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

May 4 (Reuters) - FX traders could take USD/JPY higher after last week's slump caused by likely direct intervention as key technical levels continue to limit the downside.

On Friday USD/JPY dropped from 160.72 to 155.49 to hit its lowest level since February, testing the 155.50 Fibonacci level, before recovering. The 155.50 level is a 61.8% retrace of the 152.28 to 160.72 (February to April) EBS rise and it is seen as key support. The 61.8% retracement is known by some as the "golden ratio" in the sequence due to its outsized significance in determining the direction of the price action.

While direct intervention is a strong political tool to influence the market, it usually does not change the long-term dynamics of a currency pair's direction.

While USD/JPY has traded below the Ichimoku cloud, which currently spans the 156.29-158.11 region, only a daily close below this region would prevent a potential bear-trap. A potential bear-trap is usually a bullish signal and could see the market rebound after last week's likely intervention. USD/JPY dropped once again on Monday, fuelling speculation of renewed Japanese buying to stem the yen's long-running slide. As Japanese markets are closed on Monday through Wednesday for the Golden Week holiday, that could cause wild swings in the yen owing to thin liquidity.
Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY dropped 157.25 to 155.69 Monday - another bout of suspected intervention after last week's fall from 160.00

• Markets are on alert for more, with FX options the clearest gauge of intervention fear

• 1-month 25-delta risk reversals reached 2.0 in favour of JPY calls over puts - a new high since January

• That's up sharply from 0.55 early Thursday, just before Japan's first intervention from above 160.00

• This JPY call over put skew signals the options market sees far greater risk of a sharp USD/JPY drop than a rally

• Risk reversals are a volatility play - when spot falls and implied vol rises together, JPY call holders profit on both

• USD/JPY option risk reversals - turning intervention fear into profit
JPY=EBS


USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversal


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY dropped 157.25 to 155.69 Monday - another bout of suspected intervention after last week's fall from 160.00

• Markets are on alert for more, with FX options the clearest gauge of intervention fear

• 1-month 25-delta risk reversals reached 2.0 in favour of JPY calls over puts - a new high since January

• That's up sharply from 0.55 early Thursday, just before Japan's first intervention from above 160.00

• This JPY call over put skew signals the options market sees far greater risk of a sharp USD/JPY drop than a rally

• Risk reversals are a volatility play - when spot falls and implied vol rises together, JPY call holders profit on both

• USD/JPY option risk reversals - turning intervention fear into profit
JPY=EBS


USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversal


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD consolidates 1.1721-60 Monday after Friday's peak at 1.1785

• Plenty of option strike expiries within range - related hedging flows can help contain

• Close above cloud top 1.1746 could help bulls but looks unlikely right now

• Initial support at Friday's 1.1715 low and 100-DMA at 1.1710

• Daily cloud twist on May 25 near 1.1670 worth watching as these often attract price action

• UK and Japan on holiday today, limiting liquidity and overall action

• Markets are looking ahead to US NFP Friday as the key macro catalyst for direction

• One eye on Strait of Hormuz stalemate for updates, though oil remains off last week's highs
EUR=EBS


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Mon in subdued trading ahead of RBA meeting outcome Tue

• RBA monetary policy meeting in progress, 25 bps OCR hike anticipated

• Trump's plan to help ships caught by Strait of Hormuz meets scepticism

• Iran says U.S. has responded to latest proposal, consensus remains unlikely

• U.S. Mar factory orders due Mon, Reuters poll consensus +0.5% m/m

• Range Asia 0.7188-0.7228, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Nexus Minerals rise as much as 16% to A$0.058, their highest level since March 19

• Stock posts its biggest intraday pct gain since April 8

• The gold miner signs a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Australia's Macro Metals unit, Macro Gold Mining Services (MGMS)

• Under the MoU, Macro Gold to provide and fund mine development, mining operation to complete delivery of Crusader-Templar gold deposit

• Near 2 million shares change hands, 2.6x the 30-day average volume

• NXM stock has fallen 20% YTD, including day's moves

(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)