USD/JPY is holding up despite visible efforts by Japanese authorities to restrain further gains and calmer oil amid U.S. plans to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier, the yen was buoyed by a sharp surge in buying just beneath the 100-day moving average at 157.30, raising speculation of renewed intervention. Notably, trading volume also spiked near this level on Friday, reinforcing the market view that Japanese authorities may be attempting to cap upside in the pair, particularly with liquidity thin due to a Golden Week holiday.

Despite sizable volume spikes tied to suspected intervention over the past three sessions, USD/JPY has held up well. Bullish candles have formed above 155.50, a level that coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 152.28 February low to the 160.72 year-to-date high and aligns with an ascending trendline drawn from the April 2025 low.

The rebound opens a window for a renewed test of the 100-day moving average, provided the pair can hold above the lower Bollinger around 157.05, though bearish risk-reversals argue for a grinding advance beyond that level, keeping prices confined within an expanding Ichimoku cloud.

Selling into rallies toward the key 158 level remains a preferred strategy as renewed strength there could provoke a more forceful response from Japanese policymakers. That said, a deeper pullback below 155 and toward the YTD low may ultimately require a clearer easing in oil prices to materially weaken dollar support.
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(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)