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By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 18 - 08:15 PM

  • +0.1% after closing down 0.85% amid broad safe haven U.S. dollar strength

  • EZ inflation steady at a record high, consensus for July hikes nL5N2XA2S9

  • Euro remains a bellwether for the Ukraine conflict and victim of USD moves

  • Wednesday's Wall Street slide illustrates the fragility of sentiment

  • Charts; momentum studies rise, 5, 10 and 21 day moving averages conflict

  • 21 day Bolli bands contract, bearish signals ease, but key resistance held

  • 21 day moving average capped Wednesday, now 1.0554 - sustains downtrend

  • 1.0435/45 1.630 BLN strikes and 1.0541 NY high initial support, resistance

    For more click on FXBUZ

eur May 19 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 18 - 07:00 PM
  • EUR/USD opens -0.84% after growth/inflation fears sent risk assets tumbling nL2N2XA2TU

  • Investors seeking shelter bought USD and JPY and EUR/JPY fell 1.7%

  • EUR/USD closed below 10-day MA (1.0492 Wed) to shift pressure to downside

  • Once again EUR/USD found sellers at key 21-day MA which is at 1.0554 today

  • The 10-day MA comes in at 1.0486 and is close resistance

  • Support is at Tuesday's 1.0429 low and break targets 1.0340/50

  • The May 13 low is at 1.0349 and the 2017 trend low is at 1.0340

  • Selling rallies as stagflation concerns intensify is the favoured strategy

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 18 - 06:15 PM
  • AUD/USD opens 1.05% lower after completing a bearish outside day

  • Global growth fears intensify after retailer Target's gloomy earnings report nL2N2XA2TU

  • Investors flock to safe-haven as AUD/JPY falls close to 2.0%

  • AUD/USD closed below 10-day MA (0.6977 Wednesday) to reinforce down-trend

  • Initial target is the May 12 trend low at 0.6829

  • The 10-day MA descends to 0.6961 and is now close resistance

  • More resistance is at the 21-day MA at 0.7063 with sellers ahead of 0.7000

  • Aus April jobs data today with the market looking for +30 K and 3.9% unemp

  • AUD/JPY flows out of Tokyo key after the near 2% fall

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 18 - 03:00 PM
Societe Generale on the relative risk of recession in Europe and the US.
"But what is really striking, is how much less at risk the US is of recession, than Europe. Here too, there are savings to help cushion shocks, but the elephant-in-the-room shock is potentially much bigger," SocGen notes.
"And arguably, the monetary policy shift the ECB is signalling, ever more loudly, is far more significant than the one in the US – ECB rates have been negative for almost 8 years. If the economy can sustain positive rates within the next year, the euro will be a lot stronger when it happens. If….," SocGen adds. 
Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  May 18 - 03:10 PM

  • USD/JPY down nearly 1% as stocks and Tsy yields slide

  • Global growth angst amid CB tightening takes its toll, lifts haven yen

  • Prices probing 30-DMA and kijun at 128.23-24; May's 127.535 low next

  • Lack of BOJ tightening expectations actually a plus for haven yen

  • Fed, ECB et al tightening seen raising recession risks

  • Key props are by 127 and 126, weeklies worrying nL2N2XA1CY

For more click on FXBUZ

Chart Click here

Chart Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  May 18 - 01:40 PM
  • GBP/USD dips into NorAm close, -1.04% at 1.2361; NY range 1.2436-1.2359

  • UK inflation rises to G7 leading 9% nL5N2XA17N, risk unwind sinks GBP

  • Sterling soft after UK inflation rise exposes BoE approach nL2N2XA1GH

  • BoE failing on growth & inflation-fight to keep downward pressure on GBP

  • GBP$ supt Wed low 1.2359, 10DMA 1.2322, sub-10DMA bears eye 1.2156 '22 low

  • Res May 17-18 double top by 1.25, 21-DMA 1.2509, 30-DMa at 1.2670

  • Bulls need a rise abv 1.2652's 50% Fib of 1.3147-1.2156 to regain momentum

  • EUR/GBP +0.3% to 0.8473, Wed range 0.8493-38; ECB set to begin normalization trumps steady BoE

GBP Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 18 - 01:30 PM

ING Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and sees a limited scope for further rally in the near-term.

"Our view on the limited downside risk for the dollar beyond the very short term obviously implies that the room for appreciation in EUR/USD should also start to shrink soon. We also believe that markets are pricing in too much tightening by the ECB – though not by the Fed – and expect the theme of growth divergence (exacerbated by the EU-Russia standoff on commodities) to become more relevant into the summer," ING notes. 

"With this in mind, we suspect that any further rally in EUR/USD may start to lose steam around the 1.0650-1.0700 area, with risks of a return below 1.0500 in the near term being quite material," ING adds. 

ING Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  May 18 - 11:50 AM
  • USD/CAD trickles higher +0.2% to 1.2843; Wednesday range 1.2851-1.2786

  • Powell, Fed laser-focused on inflation boosts USD; risk slides

  • CAD dip tempered by BoC's parallel hike path w/Fed; both near +200bp by YE

  • Pair anchored by 21-DMA at 1.2834, supt at Wed low 1.2796, key Fib 1.2768

  • Sub-1.2768, 50% of 1.2459-1.3077 bears gain momentum; 55-DMA in view 1.2704

  • Res Tues-Wed high just below 1.2860, 10-DMA 1.2922

CAD Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 18 - 12:00 PM

Bank of America Global Research discusses EUR/USD technical outlook on the daily chart.

"Our base case year ahead view was that euro could see the 1.08s and that would be an ideal place for a bottom to form. In March it fell to the 1.08s and rallied to 1.1180. Then it declined back to the 1.08s in mid-April but couldn't hold. The break lower led spot to test the 2017 lows at 1.0341. Tactically, euro is showing some support here due to two trend lines aligning," BofA notes. 

"We lack bottom or bullish signals at this point to say the euro will turn significantly higher. Until we do, we presume a rally will be sold. An optimistic scenario would be a rally back to retest the line in the 1.08s that was support and turns into resistance. Notable resistance for a bounce at about 1.0650," BofA adds. 


BofA Global Research
By Paul Spirgel  —  May 18 - 10:15 AM

Rising UK inflation and the BoE's perfunctory attention to slowing price growth mean GBP/USD bears are likely to retest recent 2022 lows.

UK headline annual CPI came in at 9% in April, just below forecast but well above March's 7% and the BoE's 2% target.

Sterling came under renewed pressure, trading down 0.6% at 1.2416 after hitting a low of 1.2373, and off early European highs by 1.2492 ahead of the data.

The inflation rise challenges the BoE, which has focused on supporting economic growth as well as slowing prices, but this middle-way approach risks leaving neither problem solved -- a potential disaster for sterling bulls.

The Fed's singular focus on taming inflation by slowing demand while other banks, including the ECB ECBWATCH, increasingly talk tough on price growth, leaves sterling vulnerable.

Rate futures project the BoE BOEWATCHwill hike a further 125bps by year-end 2022 and Fed FEDWATCHby 200bps.

For more click on FXBUZ

GBP Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 18 - 09:00 AM

CIBC Research discusses its reaction to today's Canada CPI print for the month of April.

"What goes up...must keep going up it appears, as Canadian inflation accelerated further to 6.8% in April, from 6.7% in the prior month and against consensus expectations for an unchanged reading. Food prices, as expected, were a key driver of inflation, as was shelter costs...The 0.5% seasonally adjusted gain in CPI excluding food and energy remains well above the trend consistent with a 2% inflation target, and the average of the Bank of Canada's three core measures also moved up to 4.2%, from 3.9% in the prior month," CIBC notes. 

"With gasoline and agricultural prices still on the rise, headline inflation could well accelerate again in May before finally slowing in the second half of the year and into 2023. With inflation continuing to accelerate further above its MPR forecasts, the Bank of Canada remains well on course to deliver another 50bp hike at its next meeting," CIBC adds. 

CIBC Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 18 - 08:32 AM

MUFG Research highlights 3 reasons for the limited correction lower in the USD at the start of this week.

"The correction lower for the US dollar at the start of this week has been driven by a number of factors. Firstly, there is building optimism that China is moving closer to easing the lockdown in Shanghai after it reported no new COVID infections in the broader community for a third consecutive day," MUFG notes. 

"Secondly, as we highlighted in yesterday’s FX Daily Snapshot there have been encouraging reports suggesting that the stand-off between the EU and Russia over paying for gas supplies is looking less likely to trigger further disruption to energy supplies and the euro-zone economy in the coming weeks/months. 

Thirdly, there has been an increase in market speculation that the major European central banks of BoE and ECB will be more active in tightening policy which is helping to narrow expectations for policy divergence with the Fed," MUFG adds. 

MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  May 18 - 06:35 AM

EUR/USD's strong recovery this week could be coming to an end and there are even tentative signs that spot to be set to reverse lower due to price action on the technical chart.

EUR/USD, which benefited from ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau saying on Monday that a weak euro could threaten price stability in the currency bloc, rose further on Tuesday after hawkish comments from Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot. nL2N2X91XR

EUR/USD on Tuesday closed above the 1.0546 Fibonacci level, a 23.6% retracement of the 1.1185 to 1.0349 recent drop, but has slipped back below it on Wednesday.
This is heightening the risk of a bull trap, which is set when a market breaks above a technical level but subsequently reverses.

Those that are bullish EUR/USD need another daily close above the 1.0546 Fibo, as this would avert the risk of a bull trap that could damage longs.
Related nL2N2X90OH

For more click on FXBUZ

Daily Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  May 18 - 05:55 AM
  • AUD/USD has traded a half-cent range thus far Wednesday; 0.6996-0.7046

  • 0.7046 = one-week high, before slightly below forecast Australian wage data

  • See: nL2N2XA02H. Australian jobs data due 0130 GMT; employment f/c +30k

  • China ferrous futures tumble, with Dalian iron ore closing down 5.3%

  • See: nL2N2XA0H1. Iron ore is Australia's biggest export earner

  • Australia's LNG industry takes risky bet on carbon capture nL3N2XA0G2

AUDUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  May 18 - 04:40 AM
  • Cable slides to 1.2387 after UK April CPI comes in at 9%, slightly below f/c

  • See: nL5N2XA17N. GBP/USD was at 1.2490 just before UK CPI data release

  • Drop to 1.2387 influenced by lower probability of 50 bps BoE hike next month

  • See: nL2N2XA0CU. 25 bps BoE hike to 1.25% expected on June 16 nL5N2X923D

  • 1.2347 and 1.2329 (Monday's high) are cable support points below 1.2387

  • 1.2347 was Tuesday's Asia high -- before GBP jumped on strong UK jobs data

GBPUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  May 18 - 03:45 AM
  • EUR/USD's recovered to see a daily close on Tuesday above the 1.0546 Fibo

  • 1.0546 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 1.1185 to 1.0349 recent drop

  • Another close above this Fibo needed on Wed to avert the risk of a bull trap

  • Bull trap: set when a market breaks above a tech level but quickly reverses

  • For now the outlook for EUR/USD in the near-term is quite mixed

  • This could be a good time to hedge against a EUR/USD dive nL2N2X90OH

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous nL2N2X90N8

Daily Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  May 18 - 02:55 AM
  • Cable falls to 1.2437 on dovish shift in BoE expectations after UK CPI data

  • 1.2437 = intra-day low. 1.2501 was Asia high (pre-UK CPI data) nL2N2XA0BK

  • UK April CPI came in fractionally below forecast, at 9.0% YY nL5N2XA17N

  • Probability of 50 bps BoE hike in June down to 18% vs 38% at Tuesday's close

  • Percentages courtesy of Refinitiv measure based on I/R futures BOEWATCH

  • 1.2420 and 1.2400 are support points (1.2420 = 23.6% Fibo of 1.2156-1.2501)

GBPUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  May 18 - 02:30 AM
  • Cable falls to 1.2464 after UK April CPI comes in slightly below forecast

  • 9.0% YY vs 9.1% f/c, 40-year high nL5N2XA17N. 1.2501 was Asia high

  • 1.2501 = high since May 5 (when GBP slumped on BoE's UK recession warning)

  • 1.2498 was Tuesday's high, after GBP jumped on strong UK jobs/earnings data

  • See: nL5N2X91BH. Retreat from 1.2498 based just shy of 1.2450

  • Situation in N.Ireland is of grave concern - Truss nS8N2W402InL5N2X932J

GBPUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  May 18 - 01:10 AM
  • AUD/USD down 0.3% in Asia as Australia Q1 wage gains underwhelm nL2N2XA02H

  • Aggressive 40bps hike bets trimmed but 25bps June hike almost fully priced

  • Rally capped by Powell's reiteration of Fed's hawkish stance nL2N2X9228

  • Downside limited as easing of China crackdown on tech, COVID-19 lifts risk

  • Focus shifts to Thursday May jobs data; unemployment may fall below 4%

  • Failure at pivotal 0.7048-53 resistance Wed technically bearish

  • Break opens 0.7090-0.7100; support 0.6990-95, 0.6965-70

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 17 - 11:45 PM
  • EUR/USD opened +1.1% at 1.0550 after USD & JPY fell and equities soared nL2N2X91XR

  • The mood remained buoyant early Asia and EUR/USD traded up to 1.0564

  • The USD then firmed against risk currencies and Asian equity bounce faded

  • The EUR/USD fell to 1.0524 and is around 1.0530 into the afternoon

  • Resistance is at the 21-day MA at 1.0575 and break adds to upward momentum

  • Support is at the 10-day MA @ 1.0500 and break would encourage EUR/USD bears

  • EUR/USD rally dependent on calming equity and bond markets

  • A return of volatility will leave EUR/USD vulnerable again

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 17 - 09:40 PM
  • AUD/USD slipped from 0.7035 to sub 0.7015 after softer than expected Aus WPI nAZN041C6X

  • Miss was slight - so it is unlikely to shift RBA expectations significantly

  • Support is @ the 10-day MA @ 0.6983 and break shifts pressure to downside

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 17 - 08:35 PM
  • AUD/USD moving higher and is trading above yesterday's 0.7040 high

  • Asian equity markets rallying after strong lead from Wall Street

  • The AXJ index is up 0.54% while the Nikkei is up around 1.35%

  • AUD/USD resistance is at the 21-day MA at 0.7091 where sellers are tipped

  • A break above 0.7100 would confirm a short-term bottom is in place

  • The 5, 10 & 21-day MAs still in bearish alignment, but 5-day turning higher

  • Aus wage price index to be released shortly and will impact RBA expectations

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 17 - 08:30 PM

Strong UK jobs data nL5N2X91BH and a weak U.S. dollar saw GBP/USD jump 1.5% on Tuesday, providing an opportunity for bears, as the pound faces many lingering problems.

The Bank of England is stuck between a rock and a hard place on the pace of rate hikes, with inflation expected to hit 10%, while the economy stalls as consumers' spending power recedes nL5N2X853M.
The BoE and the market will be data-driven in turbulent circumstances.

The Brexit endgame approaches, as the UK has set out a new law to circumvent the Northern Ireland protocol that was agreed in the Brexit deal with the European Union nL5N2X91DJ.
Should the UK proceed to implement the legislation, trade barriers could follow, and as the EU is the UK's largest trading partner, sterling would suffer nL5N2X932J.

The health of Britain's finance sector is key to post-Brexit prosperity.
A significant group of economists sounded the alarm on Monday on the dangers of the government's 'competitiveness' focus nL5N2X70NU.

Sterling's 2.75% bounce off Friday's 1.2156 2022 trend low leaves mixed signals on the daily chart, while weekly signals trend south.
The 21-day moving average, which comes in at 1.2514, has capped the move lower since mid-March. Shorts with a stop on a close above the 21 DMA, looking for a return to the 2022 low, provide strong risk-reward.

For more click on FXBUZ

gbp May 18 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 17 - 07:20 PM
  • EUR/USD opens 1.1% higher after USD and JPY fell across the board nL2N2X91XR

  • Hawkish comments from ECB's Knot helped to underpin EUR in Europe nL5N2X9343

  • Fed Chair Powell was also hawkish but market took comments in stride nL2N2X9228

  • EUR/USD closed above the 10-day MA, which is now support at 1.0501

  • Key resistance is at the 21-day MA at 1.0576

  • A close above the 21-day MA would suggest a bottom is in place

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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