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May 08 - 01:55 PM

GBP/USD - COMMENT-Dovish Risks Haunt Sterling Ahead Of BoE

By Paul Spirgel  —  May 08 - 12:00 PM

Sterling weakness extended in early NorAm trading as the pound matched a one-week low at 1.2467 amid position adjustments ahead of Thursday's BoE rate vote and presser that appears to carry dovish risks that could put further pressure on the pound.

The BoE is almost unanimously expected to hold rates steady on Thursday, as indicated on LSEG's IRPR page.
As such traders will focus on the vote tally before turning attention to U.S. CPI May 15 and UK CPI data on May 22.

Should other BoE governors join Swati Dhingra voting for a 25bp rate cut, market expectations for a June cut are likely to rise from current odds near 50% and would likely send GBP/USD tumbling toward support at the April 24 low 1.2423 and perhaps the April 22 2024 low at 1.2299.

No doubt BoE members, like Fed members, are likely to tout successes bringing down inflation and their resolve to continue pushing it to target.

Should the vote or post-decision comments be perceived as dovish, traders may not wait for CPI data later in the month to crater GBP/USD.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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