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By Christopher Romano  —  Aug 08 - 02:05 PM
  • AUD/USD rallied overnight, NY opened near 0.6965, rally extended

  • EquityESv1, copperHGv1 gains & softer US yields US2YT=RR aid lift

  • USD/CNH drop below 6.7600, AUD/JPY rally above 94.40 help buoy AUD/USD

  • AUD/USD hit 0.7002, neared 0.6985 late as stock gains faded, US$ firmed

  • Techs lean bullish; daily RSI rising, pair above cloud base, 10- & 55-DMAs

  • US July CPI risk looms, downside surprise may squeeze shorts nL1N2ZK18C

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Aug 08 - 01:50 PM
  • EUR/USD dipped to 1.0173 on EBS in Europe's am, NY opened near 1.0195

  • Lift aided by equityESv1, commodityHGv1 gains & US rate dip US2YT=RR

  • Rally extended above the 10-DMA, 1.0222 hit on EBS but some gains erode

  • US$ sales abate while stock gains erode & EUR/JPY falls below 137.50

  • EUR/USD slips below the 10-DMA, nears flat late in the session

  • Techs lean bullish; 21-DMA supports, consolidation phase is ongoing

  • EUR/USD faces upside risks, but US CPI is key nL1N2ZK116

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Aug 08 - 01:40 PM
  • GBP$ early NY gain pared +0.1% at 1.2083 into close; Mon range 1.2138-1.2050

  • USD gains after Fri's NFP beats dialed back ahead of Wed's US inflation data

  • US inflation the last best hope for sterling bulls nL1N2ZK0Z3

  • GBP$ bid fades pre-10-DMA res at 1.2143, next res at daily cloud base 1.2225

  • Support at 30-DMA 1.2047, a touch below Mon low, then key Fib at 1.2026

  • Failure to close below 50% Fib at 1.2026 bullish, for now

  • Sub-1.2026 opens way for test of Fri's 1.2004 low, Jul 25-26 lows by 1.1960

  • EUR/GBP +0.14% at 0.8443, Mon range 0.8445-11; ECB seen more aggressive than BoE in near-term

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Aug 08 - 01:30 PM

ING Research sees a scope for lower EUR/USD on a renewed interest in carry trade through the rest of the Summer.

"On Friday evening, the ratings agency Moodys shifted its rating outlook on Italy's sovereign debt from stable to negative. Given that Moodys' Italian rating is just one notch above junk - that has raised some eyebrows and no doubt will call the European Central Bank into further supportive action, be it through the more aggressive re-investment of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme or potentially even using its new support instrument - the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI)," ING notes. 

"None of this will help the beleaguered euro, where the ECB's trade-weighted measure remains glued to the lows of the year. Indeed, if quiet summer markets prompt renewed interest in the carry trade, the euro will probably be one of the preferred funding currencies," ING adds. 

ING Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Aug 08 - 10:35 AM

EUR/USD rose marginally on Monday as the dollar softened, but the euro could secure bigger gains if this week's highly anticipated U.S. inflation report cooperates.

The latest CFTC statistics indicate net-short euro positions were trimmed but only slightly, with investors remaining short despite EUR/USD's near 2.5% rally off the July 14 daily low.

Failure to make downside progress soon could lead investors to reduce short positions, potentially underpinning EUR/USD.

Technicals highlight upside risks, with EUR/USD consolidating gains off the July 14 low while trading in a 1.0100/1.0300 range.
Monthly RSI is deeply oversold and a monthly doji candle has followed July's bull hammer.

A break and sustained hold above the 1.0270/1.0300 zone would signal the end of consolidation, with EUR/USD likely to hit new trend highs.

July inflation data will determine if shorts get squeezed.
Estimates indicate a moderation for headline monthly and annual CPI as well as core monthly prices USCPF=ECI.

A downside surprise would signal inflation could be cooling faster than expected, softening the dollar and U.S. rates as investors anticipate a less aggressive Fed, potentially driving EUR/USD towards 1.0500.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Aug 08 - 10:45 AM

Bank of America Global Research makes the case for higher FX volatility for longer.

"A number of central banks have recently stressed that monetary policy is data dependent and not on a pre-set path. This is a natural consequence of policy rates being closer to neutral levels and the uncertainty around the growth-inflation outlook. It also means there will be a stronger correlation between economic data surprises and G10 FX, something that has been evident in recent months," BofA notes.

"This sensitivity combined with multi-decade highs in cross-country economic divergence are likely to be associated with higher FX volatility for longer. The USD will remain strong until the Fed shifts more meaningfully from inflation to growth data dependence," BofA adds.


BofA Global Research
By Paul Spirgel  —  Aug 08 - 10:15 AM

GBP/USD rose on Monday as traders curated positions before U.S. inflation data in two days' time, but cable gains were likely to be limited by recent highs near 1.2300 unless the CPI report shakes expectations that the BoE will remain behind the Fed in hiking rates.

With markets expecting U.S. inflation to remain near recent highs, supporting the Fed's aggressive tightening campaign, while the BoE falls behind even with UK price growth leading the G7, 1.2300 and sterling's 2022 high at 1.2667 remain out of reach.

Fedwatch on Eikon assigns a 69% chance for another 75bp Fed hike on Sept. 21, while BOEWATCH indicates a 71% chance for the BoE to hike 50bps on Sept.

GBP/USD 25 delta RRs GBP=FXVV indicate the bias is to the downside for sterling from one month to one year, with volatility near 2% across the front-end.

Adding in political uncertainty and the rising cost of energy, owing to the ongoing Ukraine conflict, the prospects for GBP bulls to make a sustained run higher remain remote.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Aug 08 - 09:30 AM

MUFG Research maintains a bullish bias on the USD ahead of this week's US CPI print for the month of July on Wednesday. MUFG is long USD/CAD in its ToTW portfolio targeting a move towards 1.3420. 

"The broadly positive backdrop for the US dollar will continue after Friday’s strong jobs report that helped put a 75bp rate hike back on the table for September. Comments over the weekend from San Francisco Fed President Daly and Fed Governor Bowman only helped to reinforce the potential for another 75bp rate increase. Governor Bowman was very explicit stating a “similar sized rate increase should remain on the table” until inflation declines in a “consistent, meaningful, and lasting way”," MUFG notes.

"US CPI data on Wednesday will of course be key this week but based on Bowman’s comment it is hard to see that evidence being in front of the FOMC by the September meeting unless we get a real surprise undershoot in CPI this week," MUFG adds. 


MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Aug 08 - 08:30 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research highlights the latest updates on positioning in G10 FX.

"The USD remains the biggest long in the G10 FX at present after fresh buying last week, predominantly driven by Crédit Agricole CIB flows. Our FX flow data points at corporates and real money investors inflows, as well as banks and hedge funds outflows," CACIB notes.

"The AUD has moved to the biggest short in the G10 FX space following extra selling interest last week, predominantly driven by IMM flows. Our FX flow data points at banks, corporates and hedge funds inflows, as well as real money investors outflows," CACIB adds. 

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Aug 08 - 07:05 AM
  • Three day rally and breach of the 200-day moving average Friday

  • However, Friday's Doji star highlighted market indecision and pullback risk

  • Slightly softer bias early Monday but within a tight 0.8414-33 range

  • We have a bid by 0.8395, to exploit a deeper pullback

  • The 10-day moving average is at 0.8385

  • A key 50% Fibo topside at 0.8463 seen pivotal: off 0.8585-0.8341

    For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Aug 08 - 05:45 AM
  • Late Friday recovery set the tone for early Monday gains

  • AUD gains hard fought though: 0.6899 lows in Asia from 0.6912 open

  • AUD/JPY buying and 4.5% rise in Dalian iron ore encouraged fresh buying

  • Rally to 0.6931 in Asia and 0.6970 highs in Europe time zone

  • Technically, still needs to convincingly breach the daily Ichimoku cloud

  • Cloud base is at 0.6945 and the Ichimoku top is at 0.7070

  • Friday's 0.6870 low provides support: 61.8% Fibo at 0.6822 behind

  • Consolidation within 0.6988-0.6870 recent extremes likely this week

    For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Aug 08 - 05:20 AM
  • A lack of momentum early Monday sees USD/JPY stalling ahead of 135.60

  • Factors, technical and fundamental, aligning in favour of the dollar

  • Strong U.S. jobs report and hawkish tones from the Fed should underpin

  • Growth concerns still causing a drag and thin markets cloud direction

  • BoJ's position limiting losses following Aug 2's USD/JPY turnaround

  • Softer U.S. bond yields also in the Monday mix: 10s down around 3-bps

  • USD/JPY Constructive having based at 130.40 last wk, ahead of the 100DMA

  • USD/JPY breach of daily cloud top and 10-DMA adding to the bullish outlook

    For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Aug 08 - 04:20 AM
  • Mildly corrective following Friday's drop and we sell at market

  • Short from 1.2110 for 1.1780 with a 1.2180 stop

  • A resumption of the August drop initially targets Friday's 1.2004 low

  • Removal of a 50% Fibo level from the 1.1761-1.2291 recovery noted

  • Leaves 61.8%-76.4% levels, 1.1963-1.1886 respectively, for targets

  • Daily bull momentum is fading but RSI still pointing up

  • Daily cloud base at 1.2225 key topside level: potential turning point

    For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Aug 08 - 02:45 AM

  • Constructive having based at 130.40 last week, just ahead of the 100DMA

  • Breach of the daily cloud top and 10-DMA adding to the bull move

  • Initial resistance at 135.95, 61.8% Fibo from 139.38-130.40

  • Daily momentum remains negative and RSI struggling to confirm recent gains

  • Last week's hammer candle (bullish) noted

  • We lean bullish while above the daily cloud but look for techs to align

    For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Ewen Chew  —  Aug 08 - 01:55 AM
  • AUD/USD rises to 0.6938, edging toward 0.6945 resistance

  • Ichimoku cloud likely to obstruct further advance

  • But a Mon close above will pave way toward 0.6990

  • Entrance of Bollinger uptrend channel may pivot it higher

  • China's July exports handily beat expectations nL1N2ZJ04U

  • But fresh Chinese drills near Taiwan may bog AUD nL1N2ZK06O

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Aug 08 - 01:40 AM
  • EUR/USD: 1.0100-05 (692M), 1.0175 (234M)

  • 1.0200-05 (353M), 1.0245-55(423M), 1.0300 (567M)

  • USD/JPY: 134.00 (445M), 134.75-85 (372M)

  • 135.00 (510M), 135.50 (260M), 135.90 (230M)

  • 135.90-00 (639M), 137.50 (960M)

  • GBP/USD: 1.1990-00 (670M), 1.2240-50 (510M)

  • USD/CHF: 0.9450 (300M). AUD/USD: 0.6910 (913M)

  • 0.7000 (975M). NZD/USD: 0.6400 (330M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.2800-10 (340M), 1.2950 (1.07BLN)

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Aug 08 - 12:00 AM
  • EUR/USD fell to 1.0159 early Asia after closing -0.51% Friday at 1.0195

  • Hawkish Fed comments and Italy worries led to the selling nL1N2ZH1XZnL4N2ZH46VnL1N2ZJ08S

  • Early USD strength dissipated and EUR/USD back at 1.0180 into the afternoon

  • EUR/USD support is at Friday's 1.0142 low and 50% of 0.9952/1.0294 at 1.0123

  • Sellers are lined up around 1.0250 with resistance at 1.0294

  • Hawkish shift in Fed expectations to limit EUR/USD gains ahead of US CPI Wednesday

  • Range proving stubborn and break below 61.8 fibo @ 1.0082 needed to break it

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Aug 07 - 09:50 PM

Corrects run of consecutive RBA hikes to three (not four) in paragraph 3

Friday's much stronger than expected U.S. non-farm payrolls nL1N2ZG2G3 has resulted in a significantly hawkish shift in Federal Reserve expectations that will likely support the greenback against the Australian dollar, in the short-term at least.

The market is now pricing a 70% chance the Fed will hike 75 basis points at their September meeting, up from below 30% just a week ago nL1N2ZH1Y3.
Hawkish comments from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman over the weekend further increase the chances of another jumbo hike nL1N2ZH1XZ.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is also signalling more tightening in the coming months, but hinted in their statement following the 50 basis point hike on Aug.
2 that they may opt for 25 bps next, to assess the impact of three straight 50 bps increases nL1N2ZE08W.

The AUD/USD fell around 0.80% on Friday, but losses were cushioned by a muted reaction to the hawkish turn in Fed expectations in equity and commodity markets.
Risk asset resilience may be in for a stern test if U.S. CPI on Wednesday comes in above forecasts nL1N2ZH20G.

Support for the AUD/USD is at the 50% retracement of the 0.6682/0.7048 move at 0.6865 and the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement of that move at 0.6822.
A break below 0.6820 would expose a retest of the July 14 low at 0.6682.
A close back above the 10-day moving average at 0.6960 would ease the downward pressure.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Aug 07 - 09:35 PM

  • -0.25% amid hawkish Fed expectations after strong U.S. jobs underpin the USD

  • Italian centrists in disarray - right wing Gov't chances grow nL1N2ZJ08S

  • Moody's cut Italy's outlook to 'negative' from 'stable' nL4N2ZH46V

  • 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages conflict daily with momentum studies

  • 21 day Bollinger bands flat line, as recent choppy consolidation extends

  • 1.0294, August high and 1.0305 upper 21 day Bollinger band are the range top

  • Last week's 1.0123 base and 1.0082 61.8% July-August rise initial supports

  • 1.0100/05 692 mln and 1.0200/10 531 mln are Monday's close strikes

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Aug 07 - 08:20 PM

  • +0.25% after jumping 1.54% Friday as Treasury yields surged

  • E-mini S&P -0.5% - Hawkish Fed comments nL1N2ZH1XZnCqtyKPZpa

  • CME FedWatch Tool prices a 75bp September hike at 68% from 28% on July 29

  • Japan PM Fumio Kishida to reshuffle the cabinet on Wednesday nL1N2ZI02F

  • Charts: bullish outside day closes back above the daily cloud

  • 134.89 Kijun line, 133.92 Tenkan line and 133.78 cloud top now support

  • 135.95, 61.8% of the July-August fall is initial resistance

  • Neutral setup but close above 136.03 21 day moving average would be bullish

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Aug 07 - 07:50 PM

  • -0.1% early after closing down 0.7% as the USD surged with UST yields

  • Surging U.S. jobs and hawkish weekend Fed comments to sustain USD strength

  • Liz Truss ready to speed up tax cut plan if elected, Telegraph nL1N2ZI0IG

  • Lizz Truss is hot favourite to be next PM - oddschecker - bet 11 to win 12

  • Charts - daily momentum studies, 5 10 & 21 day moving averages conflict

  • 21 day Bollinger bands rise - dip leaves sterling showing neutral signals

  • NY pre U.S. payrolls 1.2148 high is initial significant resistance

  • 1.2004 NY low and 1.1963 61.8% July August bounce initial supports

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Aug 07 - 05:50 PM
  • EUR/USD down in early Asia as expectations of 75 bps Fed Sept rate hike rise

  • Hawkish comments from Fed officials, unexpectedly strong US jobs data weigh

  • Fed's Bowman: more 75 basis-point hikes should be on the table nL1N2ZH1XZ

  • "We need to leave our minds open'- Fed's Daly when asked about Sept meeting

  • "Fed needs to be data dependent" - Daly on CBS “Face the Nation”nCqtyKPZpa

  • Italy's outlook cut and politics also undermine EURnL4N2ZH47RnL1N2ZJ08S

  • US CPI Wed crucial; support 1.0140-45, 1.0115-20, resistance1.0200-10,1.0230

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Aug 05 - 04:05 PM

Repeats with no changes

  • USD net spec long cut in Jul 27-Aug 2 period; $IDX -0.8%

  • EUR specs +2,773 contracts now -38,811 amid EUR$ 0.45% rise

  • JPY net short reduced considerably, $JPY -2.73%, specs +18,728 contracts

  • GBP$ +1% in period; specs -2,419 contracts now -56,409; BoE rate path lags

  • AUD specs -8,565 contracts now -55,950; growth woes, commod dip weighs on A$

  • BTC +9.73% in period, specs sell 460 contracts into strength, now -581

  • JPY short-cover changes USD long rankings- EUR short +$4.9bn, GBP$ short +4.3bn, $JPY long +$4.0bn

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Aug 05 - 01:55 PM
  • AUD/USD dropped in overnight trading, NY opened near 0.6945

  • Pair falls after big upside surprise to US July NFP, AHE nL1N2ZG2G3

  • US rates EDZ2 spike up as investors price in higher terminal Fed rate

  • US$ bought broadly after data, USD/CNH neared 6.7690 before dipping

  • AUD/USD fell below the 21-DMA, hit 0.6870 then bounced above 0.6915

  • Lift off lows for stocks ESv1, copper HGv1 & AUD/JPY gains buoy AUD/USD

  • Techs lean bearish; RSIs falling, AUD/USD below daily cloud, 10 & 55-DMAs

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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