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May 22 - 06:55 PM

Goldman Sachs: Updated RBNZ Rate Cut Expectations Following May Meeting

By eFXdata  —  May 22 - 03:00 PM


Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), pushing back the anticipated initial rate cut to November after a surprisingly hawkish stance in the May policy meeting. This represents a shift from their previous expectation of a rate cut in August.

Key Points:

  • RBNZ May Meeting Outcome: The RBNZ left rates unchanged but discussed the possibility of an increase, indicating a more hawkish perspective than anticipated.
  • OCR Track and Inflation Concerns: The OCR (Official Cash Rate) path was adjusted upward compared to the previous statement, reflecting heightened concerns about inflation expectations and potential fiscal stimulus impacts.
  • New Rate Cut Forecast: Goldman Sachs now anticipates the RBNZ will initiate rate cuts in November 2024, contingent on reviewing more comprehensive disinflation evidence in upcoming quarterly CPI data.


Goldman Sachs' revised forecast aligns with a cautious RBNZ approach, awaiting further disinflation confirmation before adjusting rates downward. This adjustment underscores the central bank's commitment to maintaining stability amidst fluctuating economic indicators and potential fiscal changes.

Goldman Sachs Research/Market Commentary


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