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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By eFXdata  —  Nov 25 - 12:00 PM

ING Research sees a room for further EUR/USD upside into the 1.05-1.06 region in the near-term. 

"Despite the looming eurozone recession, ECB hawks such as Isabel Schnabel suggest it may be premature to scale back rate increases. Currently, the market prices 61bp of hikes on 15 December (we expect 50bp). Clearly, the 50bp versus  75bp debate will continue to run. For EUR/USD, it still looks like the big dollar story is dominating," ING notes.

"We cannot rule out a further correction into the 1.05-1.06 region but would see these as the best levels before year-end. These levels could be seen next week should Fed speakers or November US jobs data prove the catalyst," ING adds.

Source:
ING Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Nov 25 - 10:05 AM
  • EUR/USD is trading near the 200-DMA 1.0389

  • Recent closes above 200-DMA spurred bullish expectations

  • Traders are long and a close below may encourage profit taking

  • Drop in volatility is added reason to take profit nL1N32L0HJ

  • Correction targets 1.0194, 1.0105 and 1.0017

  • Euro bulls may see bigger rewards elsewhere nL1N32L0L6

  • Lower vols should underpin USD/JPY nL1N32L0F3




Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 25 - 10:45 AM

TD Research discusses the USD outlook and sees a scope for consolidation into year-end.

"The USD positioning washout is likely drawing to a close. Part of the reversal links to a few shifts in the narrative but the reduction of risk premiums has likely worked its way through market pricing. While acknowledging some improvements in the narrative over the past few weeks, the bulk of the move reflects stale positioning," TD notes. 

"Figure 4 looks at our positioning indicators, broken out by high-beta and safe havens. USD longs against both indices have corrected aggressively after topping ahead of the 2-sigma level. Still, the high-beta index holds a 0.6-sigma long to the USD. Accordingly, the USD could have a bit more downside, though we expect it to consolidate before the year concludes," TD adds. 

z10.PNG

Source:
TD Bank Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Nov 25 - 09:45 AM
  • Steady Friday trade in a thin holiday market

  • A bearish bias from the open but losses have been small

  • Market may be baulking ahead of the 200DMA, 1.2185

  • We sold at 1.2111 earlier looking for a run back to the 1.16s

  • The Dec. 5 1.1131-69 cloud twist might begin to influence price action

  • Cloud twists can appear to attract

  • A close below 1.2049, Thursday low, to take sting out of a strong week

  • Back to back long upper weekly candle shadows to help bears

    For more click on FXBUZ
















Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 25 - 09:30 AM

ANZ Research discusses its new RBNZ rate call.

"The tone of the RBNZ Statement was even more hawkish than we expected. The big surprise was in the forecast track, which now sees the OCR reaching a hefty 5.5% by end-2023 (a remarkable 140bp higher than in the August MPS)," ANZ notes. 

"We have subsequently upgraded our forecast OCR track, adding a 50bp hike in April and a 25bp hike in May to our existing 75bp hike in February, which would take the OCR to a peak of 5.75%. This should keep the NZD supported short term," ANZ adds. 

Source:
ANZ Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 25 - 08:34 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research maintains a cautious bias on the EUR in the near-term. 

"While the EUR has remained close to its recent highs vs the USD the currency generally lagged behind risk-correlated and commodity G10 currencies as well as the GBP, CHF and JPY....That being said, we further note that the Governing Council remains divided on the need for further aggressive tightening once the policy rate reaches the 'neutral' 2% level. The ongoing fiscal measures to counter the effects of the Eurozone energy crisis will also complicate the ECB's job of bringing inflation under control," CACIB notes.

"The lack of credibility of the ECB’s tightening efforts could continue to haunt the EUR ahead of the November HICP inflation data out of the Eurozone next week. This should keep the EUR real rates well below the USD real rates and thus make us less constructive on EUR/USD from current levels," CACIB adds. 

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Nov 25 - 08:30 AM
  • Cable has traded a 53 pip range on Black Friday thus far; 1.2073-1.2126

  • 1.2153 was 15-week high on Thursday, after 10 cent rise in three weeks

  • Shorts squeezed during that 10 cent climb (next CFTC data due Monday)

  • IMM speculators have been net GBP short since Nov 2021 (bar one week in Feb)

  • Support points below 1.2073 include 1.2050 and 1.2026 (last week's high)

  • 1.2185 (200DMA) is a resistance level beyond the U.S. Thanksgiving Day high

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Nov 25 - 05:50 AM
  • USD/JPY has risen from 138.38 in Asia to 139.53 in London, on Friday

  • Thursday's high at 139.60 is still intact, limits spot's recovery attempts

  • Daily chart remains bearish as the week draws to a close nL1N32L0EJ

  • FX traders have sold USD/JPY for most of this week EBS flow data shows

  • An eventual drop under November's 137.67 low is quite likely eventually

  • Market talk of decent bidding interest circa 138.00, this could slow losses

  • USD/JPY, EUR/JPY 30-day log correlation above +0.50 = positive relationship

  • Japan data underscores broadening inflationary pressure nL1N32L01L

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Nov 25 - 04:35 AM
  • EUR/USD traders have bet heavily on a rise

  • So far they have been successful - their bets are profitable

  • They are betting against interest rates and the long-term trend

  • They need sustained momentum and must hope for further tech breaks

  • They are seeing momentum wane and volatility drop

  • One month-vol now 10.7 from above 14 - it is getting quieter

  • EUR/USD is overbought - above 20-week Bollinger bands

  • Rising risk traders book profits - year-end adds to that likelihood





Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Nov 25 - 04:05 AM

USD/JPY has met the target for a minimum technical correction of the rally fuelled by U.S. and Japanese monetary policy, it may be the perfect spot to bet it rises further.

Between April and October the combined power of the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve policies supported a USD/JPY rise from 114.65 to 151.94.
Since then it has taken massive BOJ intervention to drive the pair back down to 137.70 - which is the target for a minimum technical correction - while the central bank polices underpinning USD/JPY have not changed.

The gulf in interest rates means investors holding dollars receive an enormous return, equivalent to 700 points annually, and with BOJ determined to retain super easy policy when U.S. interest rates are seen rising further, support may grow.

In contrast, the apparent success of intervention - that has driven out speculative bets previously restraining the rally - should see it curtailed.
While BOJ may try to cap further strength, there's a lot of topside scope and so a good chance the technical uptrend sees favourable FX movement adding to interest rate returns.


For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Nov 25 - 03:00 AM
  • Cable elicits support around 1.2100 after retreat from 1.2153

  • 1.2153 was Thursday's 15-week high (after more short positions squeezed)

  • There is a large 1.2100 option expiry on Monday, GBP 876 million strike

  • UK political calm since Sunak replaced Truss as PM has been positive for GBP

  • Truss and Johnson join Tory rebellion over onshore wind farms - FT

  • UK ONS bumps up factory inflation estimates after error nL8N32L147

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Nov 25 - 02:45 AM
  • EUR/USD bullish while trading persists above 200-DMA, now at 1.0389

  • There is scope for gains to continue through last week's 1.0481 (EBS) peak

  • A "bear trap" appeared on the daily chart recently = a bullish signal

  • Market failed under 1.0256 Fibo, 23.6% of 0.9528-1.0481 (Sept-Nov) rise

  • However, bulls should beware of the large upper shadow on Thursday's candle

  • The dollar is in danger of a much bigger slump nL1N32K0G3

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous update nL1N32K0C2

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Nov 24 - 10:30 PM

  • Steady near the top of a 0.6752-0.6768 range with reasonable interest on D3

  • Risk resilient, E-mini S&P +0.2%, ASX 200 +0.3%, oil, copper and gold firmer

  • Australia to become 'more assertive' on foreign critical minerals investment

  • Move in line with the current broad geopolitical initiatives nL1N32L02H

  • Charts; momentum studies edge higher 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages climb

  • 21 day Bollinger bands head north - a strong positive trending setup

  • Targets a test of 0.6797 November high, then 0.6915, 50% 2022 fall

  • 0.6557, 38.2% of Oct/Nov rise and 0.6562 21 DMA are pivotal support

    For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Nov 24 - 10:20 PM

  • -0.1% in a very tight 1.2098-1.2115 post Thanksgiving range, low key on D3

  • British nurses prepare for unprecedented strike over pay nL8N32K3T0

  • Cost of living crisis fuels industrial unrest for lower paid - tough winter

  • UK car output rises in Oct, still 48.4% lower than 2019 levels nB8N31K00C

  • Techs, daily momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages head higher

  • 21 day Bollinger bands expand - which is a strong positive trending setup

  • Next significant resistance is the 1.2291 well tested August high

  • 1.1926 10 DMA is initial significant support, then 1.1701 21 DMA

    For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Nov 24 - 07:15 PM

  • Steady after closing up 0.5% with risk appetite and the softer U.S. dollar

  • BoE's Ramsden favours a "watchful and responsive" rate policy nL8N32K2MZ

  • BOEWATCH prices a 50pt Dec 15 hike to 3.5% at 98.55 - almost a certainty

  • Techs, daily momentum studies rise, 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages climb

  • 21 day Bollinger bands expand - which is a strong positive setup

  • Next significant resistance is the 1.2291 well tested August high

  • 1.1927 10 DMA is initial significant support, then 1.1701 21 DMA

  • 1.2060-1.2153 London range is initial support, resistance

    For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Nov 24 - 07:05 PM

  • Steady after closing 0.45% higher, as USD slipped after FOMC minutes

  • Slower pace of Fed hikes eases the pressure on central banks nL4N32J36J

  • RBAWATCH prices another 25 pt tightening at 83.5% for December 6th

  • No significant Aus data or RBA events - range trading likely into weekend

  • Charts; momentum studies edge higher 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages climb

  • 21 day Bollinger bands head north - a strong positive trending setup

  • Targets a test of 0.6797 November high, then 0.6915, 50% 2022 fall

  • London 0.6731-0.6777 range is initial support and resistance

    For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Nov 24 - 05:40 PM
  • USD/JPY under pressure in early Asia after closing 0.7% lower Thursday

  • Weighed down by prospect of slower and smaller Fed rate hikesnL4N32J36J

  • String of weak US economic data starts to undermine USD nL1N32J2PY

  • Decline may slow as global economic slowdown risks prevent BOJ tightening

  • US holiday Thu, caution ahead of weekend may prevent large moves in Asia Fri

  • Support 138.00-10, 137.65-70 strong, resistance 139.10-20, 139.50-60

  • For more click on FXBUZ



Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Nov 24 - 04:40 PM
  • AUD/USD poised for test of 0.6800 in Asia after rallying 0.5% Thursday

  • Supported by indications that Fed will slow pace of rate hikesnL4N32J36J

  • Boosted by recovery in copper, iron ore prices on China property measures

  • China banks pledge $162 bln in credit to developers, shares gainnL1N32K05Z

  • Increased expectations of PBOC monetary easing lifts mood nL1N32J2S4

  • China's daily COVID cases hit record high, may slow rally

  • Clear break of 0.6800 opens 0.6908, 76.4% of Aug-Oct drop, 200-DMA at 0.6938

  • Support 0.6725-30, 0.6700-05

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Nov 24 - 09:45 AM
  • EUR/USD: 1.0340-50 (992M), 1.0370-80 (790M)

  • 1.0400 (1.11BLN)

  • USD/JPY: 138.00 (816M), 140.25-30 (815M)

  • 140.65 (275M), 141.15 (600M)

  • USD/CHF: 0.9500 (595M)

  • GBP/USD: 1.1840 (236M), 1.1865-70 (300M)

  • AUD/USD: 0.6675-85 (478M)

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Nov 24 - 07:20 AM

Very short-dated expiry option implied volatility was sold heavily before the U.S. holiday, but Wednesday's bearish U.S. data and Fed minutes hit the dollar and rewarded those who bought the lows.

USD/JPY implied volatility was the biggest gainer as downside strike premium for risk reversals helped fuel demand as spot fell.
One-week implied volatility gained 2.0 to 12.5 and 1-month 1.0 to 13.7.
Further gains noted in early London amid ongoing spot weakness and short covering of near-term expiry strikes to 137.00. nL1N32K0JQ

EUR/USD closed above its 100-day moving average at 1.0393 and reached 1.0447 Thursday.
Buyers of topside strikes noted as front-end expiry risk reversals lose more downside strike premium - 1-week 1.0500-50 strikes were popular and a Dec.
23 1.0800 EUR call/USD put was bought on several hundred euros. nL1N32K0HR

The USD fall fuelled GBP/USD higher and put the chocks under recent vol losses, but option interest is light and mixed for now, with a similar story in AUD/USD.
G10 option focus/premium stays with forthcoming U.S data and key central bank meetings.



For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Nov 24 - 06:10 AM
  • Cable reaches 1.2125 after vaulting 1.2113 (Asian session peak)

  • 1.2125 is highest level since August 17 (1.2143 was high that day)

  • USD continues to suffer on Wednesday's soft U.S. data/dovish Fed minutes

  • See: nL1N32J12NnL1N32J1JB. 1.22 among bull targets beyond 1.2125

  • 1.22 approximates to 200DMA. 1.2026 (last week's top) is now a support point

  • BUZZ-Scottish vote is a political football for the pound nL1N32K0LJ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Nov 24 - 04:40 AM
  • Bearish engulfing line within the meat of the trend

  • Still highlights downside risk

  • A spike below the 100DMA Wed and price opens above the line today

  • Bearish momentum flipped to negative Wed and has extended the drop

  • Main bearish targets are at 0.8573, Oct. 28 low and 0.8532 200DMA

  • Upside squeeze likely above Wed's 0.8701 high

  • We are side lined for now

    For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Nov 24 - 04:10 AM
  • Renewed demand for short dated EUR/USD options, especially topside strikes

  • Noted buyers of 1-week 1.0500-50 strikes since Wed U.S. data and Fed min's

  • Buyer pre X-mas strike near 1.0800 on several hundred million euros today

  • Topside covering shows heightened concern about EUR/USD extending gains

  • Demand has stalled the setback in related implied volatility

  • 1-week implied volatility up 1.0 from long term lows of 9.25 early Wed

  • Risk reversals show EUR put/USD call (downside) implied vol premium slipping

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Nov 24 - 02:50 AM
  • Market rejected the daily cloud, that now spans wide 141.02-146.54 region

  • Failed above the 141.03 Fibo, increasing the odds of a deeper setback

  • 141.03 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 151.94 to 137.67 (EBS) drop

  • Fourteen-day momentum is negative, reinforcing the bearish structure

  • Scope grows for bigger losses under November's 137.67 (EBS) low

  • Looking to get short at 141.00. USD/JPY Trader TGM2336. Prev nL1N32J0GF

  • EUR/JPY range has been 144.63-145.20, on Thursday, according to EBS prices

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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