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May 09 - 06:55 AM

USD/JPY - COMMENT-FX Option Trades Highlight A Distinct USD/JPY Trend

By Richard Pace  —  May 09 - 05:25 AM

Trade flow in forward looking FX options can offer clues about the direction and potential volatility of a currency pair and there's a clear theme at work in USD/JPY.

Demand for USD call/JPY put options has increased over recent sessions and would suggest that more traders are expecting USD/JPY to return toward 160.00 over coming weeks and months.

There has been an increasing number of trades with buyers of strikes between 156.00 and 160.00 with expiries between 2-weeks and 2-months.
However, some of these options have upside triggers (RKO) attached above 160.00, levels where the BoJ is assumed to have initially intervened.
The trigger can significantly reduce the initial cost of the option, although the option is dead if the trigger trades at any time before the expiry.

For example, with USD/JPY at 155.85 - a regular 1-month expiry 156 JPY put/USD call vanilla option allows the holder to buy USD/JPY at 156.00 at expiry for an up-front premium of 132 JPY pips.
The profit potential is unlimited above the 157.32 break-even point.
By comparison, a 1-month expiry 156.00 JPY put/USD call with a knockout trigger at 160.00 has a premium of just 23 JPY pips, making the break-even 156.23, but capping the profit potential and killing the option if 160.00 trades any time before expiry.

Extending the duration to expiry and/or lowering the trigger will reduce the premium further, with a 2-month 156.00 RKO 159.00 costing a mere 4 JPY pips.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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