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Jan 23 - 05:00 PM

AUD: If RBA Cuts In Feb; It Would Signal That Another Cut Is Likely On The Cards - NAB

Published on Jan 23 - 02:00 PM

NAB Research discusses AUD outlook heading into next month's RBA policy meeting.

"Having moved by less than a cent in the last two weeks, it is hard not to conclude that in the absence of a major shock from the USD side, what the RBA does on February 4 is going to be key in determining whether the next 1-2 cent move in AUD/USD is down or up. This is in so far as no move in Feb. will convince some that the RBA has taken to heart criticism that further rate reduction(s) will either serve no useful purpose or could even be counterproductive, while a cut on Feb 4 will convince many that this is the first of two quarter-point cuts that will then lead to a relatively high probability of the RBA embarking on a Quantitative Easing programme later in 2020 or 2021," NAB notes. 

"NAB expects two more rate cuts this year, the first in Feb. Our forecast for AUD ending Q1 at 0.68 and Q2 at 0.69 are unchanged," NAB adds. 

NAB Research/Market Commentary


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