Bank of America Global Research previews the April BoE and ECB meetings on Thursday.

"We expect a hold from the BoE with a 7-2 vote (some risk of 8-1). We do not think there is enough evidence yet to convince the BoE to respond to the energy shock. Data so far has been somewhat hawkish but reflects limited decisive evidence on the fallout from the conflict. Moreover, comments from BoE Governor Bailey that he is in no rush to raise rates imply that the bar for an April hike is fairly high. Overall, we expect the BoE to emphasize a wait-and-see mode as it gathers more evidence on the economic impact of the conflict," BofA notes.

"The ECB is likely to hold rates next week, but the focus will likely be its communication, which we expect to be very close to what we have already heard from many ECB speakers. As President Lagarde argued this week, the ECB is ready to act when it has the information it needs. That means understanding the size and propagation of the shock. Moving in April would have required news on either the size or the propagation of the shock.

• EUR/USD -0.3% post-Fed, back testing the 200-day MA - a level that has held as a floor so far

• Break below here would be notable and open up 1.1640

• Fed unchanged as f/c, though three dissents on easing bias makes this is a hawkish hold

• Signals that incoming Fed Chair Warsh will find it hard to lean dovish from day one

• That said, EUR/USD downside likely capped near-term with the ECB decision ahead
EURUSD daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• GBP$ near session low in NY afternoon -0.33% at 1.3473; NorAm range 1.3528-1.3467

• Fed prudently wary of inflation, cites high level of uncertainty over ME developments

• Fed holds rates steady, cites elevated inflation; three dissents against 'easing bias'

• Traders shift focus to BoE, ECB on Thursday, no changes expected, June hikes exp'd

• LSEG's IRPR shows steady Fed in 2026; BoE seen hiking in June +81bp by Dec meeting

• GBP$ supt 1.3469/67 Wed low/100-DMA, 1.3416 100-DMA, 1.3375 daily cloud base

• Res 1.3523/28 daily conv line/Wed high, 1.3544 daily cloud top, 1.3599 daily high Apr 17

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD -0.9%, 0.7100-15 support zone tested post-Fed

• Fed on hold as expected, but three dissenters pushed back on easing bias

• On balance, this is a hawkish hold, supporting dollar's bid

• That said, the Fed's rate path stays flat from here

• Break below 0.7100 opens door to 0.7050, this marks the next line in the sand

• On the crosses though, AUD remains the carry king with an RBA hike on the table next week
AUDUSD hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Nomura Research highlights the signals form its month-end fixing-model which point to USD buying across the board into the fix.

By Justin McQueen AUD/USD running out of steam into 0.7200 again, this time with a bit of help from a softer Q1 CPI print. Trimmed mean came in at 0.8% vs. 0.9% expected, which has nudged the Reserve Bank of Australia’s pricing a touch lower, but a May hike is still very much alive. On the crosses, AUD stays bid, with AUD/NZD remaining the cleanest way to play this.

The topside struggle against the USD makes sense when you look around as copper's gone quiet, while the yuan has done very little, and right now there is no commodity or China FX tailwind to push the button on AUD/USD breaking higher.

Technically, it has slipped through the 200-hour MA cluster which keeps 0.7100-15 in play on the downside. That's the level to watch.

Though on balance, given the RBA is on course to raise rates next week, the AUD will remain the highest yielder in G10. In turn, the currency should continue to elicit carry support, meaning pullbacks are likely stay shallow as long as risk sentiment holds a constructive tone.
AUD pricing


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own) ((Email: ))

Morgan Stanley Research summarizes its tactical view on AUD and NZD.

"AUD View: Neutral | Skew: Neutral. We expect growth headwinds from fiscal tightening and a higher RBA policy rate to be offset by AUD-supportive hedging flows," MS notes.

"NZD View: Neutral | Skew: Neutral. We do not recommend long NZD positions despite a rise in 1Q non-tradeable inflation; sluggish growth diminishes the extent to which NZD can benefit from higher rates," MS adds.

Sterling is expected to remain range-bound in the near term as traders brace for pivotal policy guidance from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.

While both central banks are widely anticipated to hold rates steady this week, the spotlight remains firmly on the post-decision rhetoric to determine the divergence in policy paths for the remainder of 2026.

Currently, futures markets are pricing in a steady Fed through year-end.

The BoE is facing mounting pressure to combat persistent inflation, and UK short-term futures are discounting a 72% chance of a rate hike in June, with as much as 68bp of tightening priced in by the December MPC meeting.

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD exhibits a neutral-to-soft bias, with immediate support found near the recently bruised 100-day moving average at 1.3468 and the 21-day moving average at 1.3443, a breach below the 100-DMA could lead to a decline toward the 200-day moving average at 1.3416.

Conversely, while above these levels, the pair remains constrained by the daily cloud top, currently at 1.3544. A break above the daily cloud will put the April 17 trend high of 1.3599 and the rising upper 30-d Bolli at 1.3650 in focus.
Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research previews today's April FOMC meeting.

"The FOMC is likely to reiterate its wait-and-see message at its April meeting this week because the war with Iran continues to cloud the economic outlook and to present risks to both inflation and activity," GS notes.

"The Committee's post-meeting statement is likely to acknowledge the better labor market news and higher inflation numbers but to leave the standing policy guidance unchanged. We expect a strong consensus to stay on hold for now, with only one dissent, as in March," GS adds.

Bank of America previews today's April FOMC meeting and USD likely reaction around the meeting.

"The Fed will remain firmly on hold at its April meeting.  We anticipate only one dissent.Chair Powell should sound hawkish in what will probably be his last presser. 

The April FOMC is unlikely to be a major event for the USD, but risks skew marginally bullish, to the extent that Chair Powell reiterates his more hawkish tone from March," BofA notes.

"In terms of any forward guidance any revealed discussion of hikes would be a surprise, likely sparking a USD rally. On the other hand, denying any material discussion took place could weigh on the USD slightly," BofA adds.

• EUR anchored at 1.17 as the ranges get smaller ahead of the Fed and ECB decisions

• ECB tightening bets build as oil grinds higher. Markets now discount 3 hikes in 2026

• June near-fully priced, July and Sept hikes sitting above 50%

• Focus for the April meeting shifts to Lagarde's tone, specifically how she opens the door to a June hike

• Bar is high to surprise hawkish given what's priced, creates a EUR downside risk

• 200-DMA remains key support. So a clean break here is needed for any durable pullback

• Resistance stands at 1.1830 (July 2025 peak)
ECB pricing


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• Cable hugs 1.35 before UK PMQs (1100-1130 GMT) and Fed event risk

• 1.3496 was early London low, as safe-haven dollar rose on higher oil prices

• Trump urges Iran to sign a deal after report suggests U.S. may extend blockade

• Last PMQs before UK parliament prorogued (next session starts on May 13)

• UK local elections next week (May 7). Fed rate hold expected at 1800 GMT

• Fed chief nominee Warsh set to clear key confirmation hurdle at 1400 GMT

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

April 29 (Reuters) - A sustained rise in oil prices - up more than $40 per barrel amid conflict in the Middle East - could reassert the long-term EUR/USD downtrend.

The conflict and resulting surge in oil prices should weigh on EUR/USD because the euro area is a large net energy importer; higher oil weakens terms of trade and real incomes. The United States, by contrast, is a major oil producer and exporter, and speculators are still betting on a stronger euro.

With traders predisposed to sell, existing bullish wagers can act as a drag on further euro gains, while any liquidation of those positions could accelerate a decline driven by higher oil prices.

The downtrend that began at 1.6040 in 2008 and reached 0.9528 in 2022 was followed by a rebound to 1.2084 in 2026, which met the 1.2016 target for a minor (38.2%) correction of the 1.6040-0.9528 slide.

From a technical perspective, the trend - refreshed by that correction and quickly followed by a drop to 1.1409 - remains intact and appears to be strengthening. With targets far below parity, it may be worth respecting.
EURUSD targets


EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• As with most G10 FX options - EUR/USD implied volatility drops to levels last seen before US/Iran conflict

• Implied volatility gauges FX realised volatility - current and future, so the implied vol drop speak volumes

• Benchmark 1-month implied volatility at 5.65 is still above 1-month past realised volatility at 5.15

• Low realised highlights the lack of volatility and argues that even 5.65 implied vol is expensive

• Risk reversals show any implied volatility premium for strikes in one direction over the other

• Unsurprisingly - 1-3-month 25 delta benchmarks hold a downside over upside premium in case of risk aversion

• However, that premium is minimal at 0.3 from 3-year highs at 1.7 in early March when the conflict started

• In summary - EUR/USD price action is consistent with continued low realised volatility within familiar ranges

• Related - FX options wrap - When nobody's scared, be scared
EUR/USD FXO implied volatility


EUR/USD risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• All 103 economists polled by Reuters expect Fed to leave rates unchanged

• Futures suggests no change in US interest rate before July 2027

• In advance 18GMT rate decision EUR/USD close to neutral levels

• Middle 2026 range is 1.1746 - EUR/USD 1.1697-1.1720 on Apr 29

• The centre of the 20-day Bollinger bands is 1.1697

• Traders are betting that the euro rises while elevated oil price weighs

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/14.00 GMT on Wednesday April 29

• EUR/USD: 1.1650-60 (3.5BLN), 1.1670-75 (1.3BLN), 1.1695-1.1705 (3BLN)

• 1.1725-30 (1.5BLN), 1.1750-55 (1.6BLN), 1.1770 (311M), 1.1795-1.1800 (1.2BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.7875 (223M), 0.7890-0.7900 (683M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8660 (243M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3425-35 (630M), 1.3460-70 (276M), 1.3500 (305M), 1.3650 (200M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7120-25 (1.4BLN), 0.7150 (895M), 0.7200 (398M), 0.7220 (315M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5730 (620M), 0.5775 (375M), 0.5850 (387M), 0.5950 (452M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3620-30 (650M). EUR/JPY: 189.50 (564M)

• USD/JPY: 159.00 (460M), 159.10-15 (805M), 160.00 (225M)

• FX options wrap - When nobody's scared, be scared (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Catalyst Metals fall as much as 6.5% to A$5.650, their lowest point since March 24

• The gold miner expects all-in sustaining cost to be above the guidance range at A$2,750/oz to A$2,950/oz for FY26

• Catalyst Metals says it shall retain FY26 production outlook at 100koz-110koz for gold

• CYL stock down 22.7%, YTD

(Reporting by Keshav Singh Chundawat in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Motherson Sumi Wiring India down 2.2% at 38.4 rupees

• Wiring harnesses manufacturer posts modest 1.2% rise in Q4 profit to 1.67 billion rupees ($17.62 million); firm's margins pressured by higher copper prices through the quarter

• Nomura ("Buy"; reduces PT to 50 rupees) notes that while co has capitalised on strong volume growth, margins have struggled due to delayed pass-through of copper costs and longer-than-expected margin recovery in greenfield plants

• Copper-related margin pressure to ease going forward as copper costs have now stabilized

• Believes greenfield plants should achieve improved profitability in the second half of FY27

• Stock rated as "Buy" on average by 10 analysts; median PT at 50.71 rupees

• YTD, stock 21.6%

($1 = 94.7800 Indian rupees)
(Reporting by Mridula Kumar in Bengaluru)

• GBP/USD steady in Asia after closing 0.1% lower on Tuesday

• Bulls encouraged by bounce from 100-day MA at 1.3466

• But elevated oil prices, inflation fears likely to cap rallies

• Oil supply concerns to intensify as U.S. to extend Iran blockade

• UK 10-year gilt yields recorded their highest close since 2008 on Tue

• Focus shifts to Fed rate decision Wednesday, BoE rate meeting Thursday

• Support 1.3500, 1.3450-60, resistance 1.3570-75, 1.3600

• Tuesday range 1.34635-1.3539, Asia range 1.35115-1.3528
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.1% after inflation surges in first Iran war impacted update

• AU Q1 CPI 4.1% y/y (poll 4.2%), 1.4% q/q (poll 1.4%), trimmed mean 3.5% y/y

• Futures market pricing now implies 75% probability of May 5 OCR hike

• Further RBA hikes likely to spur move beyond 0.7250-85 resistance zone

• Iran stalemate pivotal, WSJ reports Trump warns of extended Iran blockade

• No FFR change expected from FOMC Wed, Powell's final meeting as Fed Chair

• Range Asia 0.7168-895, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Weekly 52-WMA


AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY steady in Asia after closing 0.1% higher on Tuesday

• Elevated oil prices support; Brent futures rise for 7th straight session Tue

• Boosted by higher U.S. yields on inflation fears; 2-yr yield at 3-week peak

• BOJ's hawkish hold no relief for JPY as Ueda dampens the growth outlook

• Fed rate decision due Wed; Japanese markets closed for a local holiday

• Resistance 159.90-160.00, 160.45-50, support 158.95-159.00

• Tuesday range 158.96-159.79, Asia range 159.54-159.60
Japan yen positioning Japan yen positioning:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD -0.5% from Tue 0.5917 high as Middle East stalemate stays dominant

• Brent crude +2.8% despite UAE withdrawing from OPEC, supply fears lingering

• Powell's final FOMC meeting as Fed Chair expected to yield no change Wed

• 0.5930 a major NZD inflection point short term, rally would accelerate above

• Rising need for May RBNZ hike may provide catalyst for renewed NZD upswing

• Range NZ 0.58816-88, support 0.5680 0.5580, resistance 0.5930 0.6090-95
NZD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

(Removes extraneous words in 7th line)

• AUD/USD unchanged late Tue with attention trained on looming inflation data

• AU Q1 CPI 0130 GMT (Reuters poll +4.2% y/y), will firm RBA OCR trajectory

• UAE withdrawal from OPEC not enough to quell oil supply anxiety, WTI +3.4%

• U.S.-Iran Strait of Hormuz stalemate remains dominant market theme

• AUD will require new impetus to prompt challenge of 0.7250-85 resistance

• No change expected from FOMC Wed, Powell's last meeting as Fed Chair

• U.S. Apr consumer confidence 92.8, Reuters poll poll 89.0

• Overnight range 0.7151-874, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7250 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA


(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

SEB Research likes to express GBP shorts via options.

"Despite a negative equity- and commodities beta, Sterling has held up relatively well against the USD since the start of the Iran war, supported by a carry tailwind after the sharp repricing of the Bank of England. GBP has found itself in a “carry sweet spot” but faces downside risks regardless which direction interest rates move; higher rates risk denting the growth outlook and reigniting fiscal concerns, while a repricing of the BoE lower would erode Sterling’s current carry protection," SEB notes.

"With no obvious currency to short GBP against, downside is best expressed via a EUR/GBP call spread or a carry basket approach to isolate idiosyncratic UK risk while minimizing carry drag," SEB adds.