• EUR anchored at 1.17 as the ranges get smaller ahead of the Fed and ECB decisions

• ECB tightening bets build as oil grinds higher. Markets now discount 3 hikes in 2026

• June near-fully priced, July and Sept hikes sitting above 50%

• Focus for the April meeting shifts to Lagarde's tone, specifically how she opens the door to a June hike

• Bar is high to surprise hawkish given what's priced, creates a EUR downside risk

• 200-DMA remains key support. So a clean break here is needed for any durable pullback

• Resistance stands at 1.1830 (July 2025 peak)
ECB pricing


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))