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May 04 - 05:55 PM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-US Recap: EUR/USD Falls To 8-Day Lows As Stocks Drop Lifts Dollar

By Randolph Donney  —  May 04 - 03:00 PM

The dollar rose on Tuesday, as sharp losses in stocks and other higher risk assets prompted safe-haven flows into the U.S. currency, which recovered most of late-April losses versus the euro.

The dollar also posted more modest gains against other safe-haven currencies, such as the yen and Swiss franc.

EUR/USD fell as far as 1.1999 on EBS but trimmed losses after failing to achieve big breaks below the 21-day moving average at 1.2005 and 1.2000 figure that would embolden shorts.

The 38.2% Fibo of the 1.1704-1.2150 rebound and the daily cloud top at 1.19795/938 offer support if the April 22 low and April 16 high at 1.1994-5 give way.
A bearish bias exists heading into key U.S. data on Wednesday and Friday's employment report nL1N2MR1A6.

USD/JPY's 0.18% rise came after the yen was also widely sought for safety in early trading, sending yen crosses sharply lower intraday.

USD/JPY's recovery from the April 23 trough at 107.48 on EBS is well supported near Monday's 108.90 low, but prices need to close above the 61.8% Fibo of the March-April plunge at 109.64 to put in play upcoming, large 110 options expiries and the 110.97 2021 peak nL1N2MR1F1.

Sterling was down just 0.09% in late U.S. trade after an early risk-off dip to 1.3840 by the kijun line.
The pound was helped by a further retreat in EUR/GBP after April's repeated rally rejections above 0.8700.

There pound received support from the view that the BoE meeting on Thursday might reveal QE tapering plans as rapid UK vaccinations and lifting of restrictions bolster recovery prospects nL1N2MR150.

AUD/USD fell to its lowest since April 14 after the RBA remained adamant about not tightening policy for a long time, but the main move lower came in London trading and amid the drop in stocks that bolstered the U.S. dollar.
Tuesday's selloff to 0.7675 held exactly at the kijun and 50% Fibo of the April recovery and by the April 7 swing high.

Bitcoin, which has recently underperformed ether's string of record highs in seven of the last eight sessions, was last down roughly 4%.
Ether gained 3%.

Wednesday's main event risks are April ADP and ISM non-manufacturing reports ahead of Friday's employment report, which follow the inflationary and supply-side constrained ISM manufacturing data Monday nN9N2KB00N, with the drop in the employment index.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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