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Apr 18 - 06:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD May Continue To Defy Expectations

By Jeremy Boulton  —  Apr 18 - 04:45 AM

Whether traders have speculated on a EUR/USD rise or a fall the pair has continually failed to comply by repeatedly returning to the centre of well trodden ranges.

The flip-flop in expectations between a hoped for rise or a fall has helped to fuel a series of moves from the top to the base of the 20-day Bollinger Bands.
Effectively the pair is going nowhere, repeatedly returning to the centre of its recent extremes regardless of the many swings in opinion about fundamental or technical factors.

This year, when expectations for U.S. interest rates have undergone a monumental change and traders have abandoned bets on EUR/USD rising, the pair has done little.

Boosted to 1.1139 at the end of December when bullish bets topped $20 billion, the pair dropped toward 1.0700 when wagers were slashed to $2 billion at the start of April.
The subsequent fall to 1.0601, which resulted from a potential extremely risk-averse situation when Iran attacked Israel, may well have led traders to bet on a drop.

However, EUR/USD has unexpectedly rallied and a surprisingly big drop in oil prices - totally out of keeping with an escalation in hostilities - may lead to changes in expectations about the U.S. interest rate that leads EUR/USD back to neutral ground.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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