Explore eFXplus Derived Data That Drive Results
A Data Partner of:
Refinitiv
-

Insights

Guest Access

 
-

Subscriber Access

 
-
All
EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By eFXdata  —  Oct 27 - 02:30 PM

Nomura discusses its expectations for this week's ECB policy meeting on Thursday.

"We expect the ECB to leave its monetary policy unchanged at its October meeting. We maintain our view that the next policy move will be in March 2021, when we think the ECB will increase its PEPP envelope by an additional €400bn. Before that we expect the ECB to step up its weekly PEPP purchases into the winter as the euro area economic recovery falters as a result of more restrictive lockdown measures," Nomura notes. 

"Over the past two months, ECB communications have generally been, in our view, less dovish at the margin, and we expect this to be the case at next week’s press conference," Nomura adds. 

Source:
Nomura Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Oct 27 - 11:55 AM
  • USD/CAD hovers near Tuesday lows by 1.3160, Tuesday range 1.3212-1.3157

  • USD broadly lower on election nL1N2HH10R, rising COVID cases angst

  • Despite weak equities, CAD rallies with supply-related rise in oil (+1.4%)

  • USD/CAD back below daily cloud (1.3320-1.3201), eyes Oct 23 low 1.3110

  • Below 1.3110 bears eye Oct 21 low 1.3081, lower 21-d Bolli 1.3050

  • Bulls need a rise above 1.3251 the 50% fib of 1.342-1.3081 to regain control

CAD Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Oct 27 - 11:20 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the USD outlook ahead of next week's US elections.

"For some time now, FX investors have been buying risk-correlated assets and selling the USD across the board, anticipating a decisive victory for the Democrats at the upcoming November election. Indeed, this so-called ‘Blue wave’ is associated with more aggressive US fiscal stimulus but less assertive protectionism and thus seen as positive for global risk sentiment and negative for the ‘ultimate safe-haven’ USD," CACIB notes. 

"We remain of the view that the risk of a closely-fought and drawn-out US vote in November is still nonnegligible. In turn, this could still weigh on risk sentiment and boost the USD...

We think that it would only be a matter of time before the USD rebounds in tandem with the selloff in US FI markets as the markets continue to position for more fiscal stimulus in the US in the coming months and quarter," CACIB adds. 

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Oct 27 - 10:25 AM

EUR/USD has shown resilience in the face of risk aversion and uncertainty about U.S. fiscal stimulus, the Nov.
3 election and the pandemic, which should bode well for a rise to test September's high.

It has been consolidating gains off the Oct.
15 daily low after the 10-day moving average helped stall the slide, holding above the key 1.1765/95 support zone.
The bounce drove EUR/USD back above the daily cloud top and put the 61.8% Fibo of 1.2014-1.16125 back in play.

Given EUR/USD's recent correlation to equities and commodities, its ability to shrug off setbacks in those markets should hearten bulls, who could also be encouraged by its limited downside despite CFTC data nL1N2HE1N4 indicating investors still hold large net-long euro positions.

EUR/USD has also shown resiliency in the face of weakness in China's yuan.
USD/CNH CNH= rallied nearly 1.5% off the Oct.
21 daily low.
EUR/USD's retreat from its Oct.
21 high is less than 0.50% so far.

Should EUR/USD's consolidation phase resolve with a break higher, the 1.1915/30 zone and September's high would be targeted.

For more click on FXBUZ


eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Oct 27 - 10:00 AM

TD Research discusses its expectations for the BoC October policy meeting on Wednesday.

"We expect the overnight rate to remain unchanged at 0.25% with no substantive change to the Bank's forward guidance, but the October MPR will be an important demarcation point as the Bank sets out its path for 2021 and beyond," TD notes. 

"We do see a non-trivial risk that the BOC adds yield curve control to its policy arsenal. While the CAD has not been that responsive to anything other than broad USD variation and risk sentiment, we do track a small overvaluation and long build on our FV and positioning models. So in the off chance FX markets and the CAD are looking for something to do ahead of the US election, we think the CAD might have some ground to give up on the non-trivial risk of a YCC adoption," TD adds. 

Source:
TD Bank Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Oct 27 - 09:19 AM

Citi discusses AUD/NZD technical outlook and sees a scope for a near-term bounce. 

"AUDNZD remains on CitiFX Technicals radar: the cross is so far holding good support between 1.0629 (200-day MA) and 1.0644 (38.2% pullback of .9996-1.1044 rally)," Citi notes. 

"In addition, daily momentum is at its most oversold since July when AUDNZD bounced sharply. A hold of these supports would suggest the potential for another bounce, with first initial resistance at 1.0718," Citi adds. 

Source:
Citi Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Oct 27 - 07:35 AM
  • Risk-on sentiment lifts equities ESv1, copper HGv1 & sinks US$

  • AUD/USD up slightly on the session but lift capped by the 21-DMA

  • Pair up despite USD/CNH rally, slightly wider AU-US yield spreads

  • AUD/USD still consolidating gains from rally off Oct. 20 daily low

  • 0.7165/95 resistance looms above and is a big impediment for bulls

  • Daily cloud base, t-l off Sep. high, 55-DMA, Oct 14 high sit in that zone

  • Break above the resistance targets 0.7245/55 followed by 0.7325/

  • For more click on FXBUZ




aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Oct 27 - 05:55 AM
  • Mooted bids into 0.7100 and offers near 0.7158 are helping parameter AUD/USD

  • Prior demand ahead of 0.7100 propped the pair on Monday and Friday

  • 0.7158 = 61.8% Fibo of 0.7243 to 0.7021, and last week's high (Oct 15)

  • M&A news is AUD-supportive, re: CCEP approach for Amatil; and Boral news

  • See: nL1N2HG0SGnL1N2HH2M0. Australian Q3 inflation data due 0030GMT

  • Aussie GDP likely turned positive in Q3 - Debelle nL1N2HI0ALnL4N2HE2LS

AUDUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Oct 27 - 04:40 AM
  • EUR/USD bulls need to clear thick cloud to put key Fibo in play nL1N2HI0GD

  • GBP/USD could disappear under a cloud nL1N2HI0JJ

  • EUR/GBP bulls need a daily close above 30-day moving average, now at 0.9100

  • That would accelerate gains towards 30-day upper bolli-band now at 0.9185

  • Layers of support below ahead of 100, 55-DMAs at 0.9051, 0.9066 respectively

  • Looking to exit our long early at 0.9135 obj. EUR/GBP Trader TGM2343

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Oct 27 - 03:50 AM
  • GBP/USD's left a "bull trap" when market broke above 1.3173, then reversed

  • 1.3173 Fibo, a 61.8% retrace of the 1.3481 to 1.2676 September drop

  • The "cloud twist" near 1.2980, Wed, will likely act like a magnet

  • Risk grows for a collapse under the daily cloud that spans 1.2981-1.2985

  • That would likely lead to a much bigger drop in coming sessions

  • GBP/USD Trader TGM2338. EUR/USD update nL1N2HI0GD

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Oct 27 - 03:10 AM
  • EUR/USD could be set for a bigger rise to test the 1.1919 Fibo

  • 1.1919 Fibo, a 76.4% retrace of the 1.2014 to 1.1613 September drop

  • First bulls need to clear the daily cloud, that now spans 1.1654-1.1829

  • We are long at 1.0805 in anticipation for gains to 1.1905 target

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous nL1N2HG0NL

  • Dollar gains limited by U.S. election's expected outcome nL1N2HG0UV

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Oct 27 - 02:45 AM
  • FX options expire 10-am New York Tuesday October 27

  • EUR/USD: 1.1800-05 (1.2BLN), 1.1850 (470M)

  • EUR/CHF: 1.0810 (203M)

  • EUR/GBP: 0.8950 (300M), 0.9135-45 (900M)

  • AUD/NZD: 1.0810-15 (2.3BLN), 1.0820 (200M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.3100 (305M), 1.3170 (284M), 1.3200 (210M)

  • USD/JPY: 104.25 (1BLN), 105.00 (1.8BLN), 105.10 (380M), 105.25 (1.1BLN)

  • Stand out expiries this week nL1N2HH0H4

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Oct 27 - 12:50 AM
  • AUD/USD up 0.15% in Asia, displays resilience despite rising risk aversion

  • Ability to hold its ground likely to lead to test of 0.7158 resistance

  • RBA Dep Gov upbeat on Q3 GDP, plays down effects of Victoria lockdown

  • Australia GDP growth likely turned positive in Q3 -Debelle nS9N2FD00W

  • POLL-Australia's economy out of recession, but recovery path bumpy

  • Surging global virus cases, potentially disputed U.S. election to cap rise

  • Rally above 0.7160 opens move to 0.7190-95; support 0.7100-05, 0.7080-85

  • Related nL4N2HE2LS

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Oct 26 - 10:55 PM
  • -0.1% at the base of a 104.70/89 range with the USD broadly a touch softer

  • E-mini S&P +0.15%, which cushioned the Nikkei, which is only off 0.3%

  • Charts, 105.01-04 38.2% of the October fall and Tenkan line first resistance

  • Traded below the falling daily cloud since Oct 9 - cloud base caps at 105.31

  • Monday's 104.65 Asian base then Friday's 104.55 low are initial supports

  • Momentum studies 5, 10 & 21 daily moving averages all head lower

  • Bearish setup targets another test of the 104.34 October low

    For more click on FXBUZ

jpy 2 oct 27 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Oct 26 - 09:05 PM

As winter draws in, the UK faces several major challenges, which will determine the direction of sterling's next move.
Market positioning
and charts suggest that the trend will be your friend.

The coronavirus continues to expand in the UK nL8N2HH4WYas Brexit negotiations drag on, though a bare-bones deal is expected nL1N2HH0Z3. If the U.S. opinion polls are correct, and Democratic presidential challenger Joe Biden wins the election, the UK government will lose an ideological friend in Donald Trump, making a trade deal more difficult nL1N2HH2GF.

Regardless of how these factors play out, the nuts and bolts of leaving the European Union on Dec 31 will cause great disruption to UK businesses, as they adapt to a significant increase in paperwork and new trade rules with Europe, while COVID-19 swirls nL8N2H53ML.

Fundamentals suggest the downside is the weak one for sterling, unless there is a truly comprehensive Brexit deal, which is unlikely. Positioning is neutral based on IMM data, so not a major drivernL1N2HE1K1.

Technically GBP/USD and EUR/GBP are around the middle of their Q3 ranges with daily and weekly moving averages showing conflicting signals, which is normal in a consolidating market, providing no real bias.
Thus when a move develops, there is little reason to fight it, as key events unfold.

For more click on FXBUZ


gbp oct 27 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Oct 26 - 07:05 PM
  • Flat after closing up 0.1% for a third higher daily high

  • No data or significant BoJ activity, so the Nikkei will likely be key

  • Charts, 105.01-04 38.2% of the October fall and Tenkan line first resistance

  • Traded below the falling daily cloud since Oct 9 - cloud base caps at 105.31

  • 104.79 early London low then Asia's 104.65 base are initial supports

  • Momentum studies 5, 10 & 21 daily moving averages track south

  • Bearish setup targets another test of the 104.34 October low


    For more click on FXBUZ






















jpy oct 27 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Oct 26 - 05:55 PM
  • AUD/USD opens just 0.18% lower despite heavy fall on Wall Street nL1N2HH2AO

  • FX risk gauge AUD/JPY down only 0.09% from Friday's close

  • AUD resilience hard to explain, as key commodities also moved lower

  • AUD may be underpinned by fact Australia has coronavirus under control

  • AUD/USD buyers ahead of 0.7100 holding for now

  • Resistance at 0.7158 where Friday's high and 61.8 oc 0.7243/0.7021 converge

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Oct 26 - 03:00 PM

NAB discusses AUD/USD technical outlook and flags a scope for a move towards 0.6675/00 over a multi-weeks timeframe.

"The recent multi-week bounce to 0.7243 fell short of the 61.8% retracement at 0.7258. The subsequent bearish weekly reversal pattern once again confirms an ongoing MT downtrend bias. Last week’s bounce was modest and does not negate the negative bias," NAB notes. 

"MT momentum indicators have confirmed a comprehensive negative MT momentum bias. With prominent bearish MT and LT triggers in play, a minimum 38.2% correction of the 2020 uptrend towards 0.6675/00 is likely," NAB adds.

Source:
NAB Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Oct 26 - 03:15 PM
  • Key resistance cluster by 105.05 offered an attractive short entry

  • USD/JPY's 105.055 EBS high exactly at kijun, 50% Fibo of Oct. 20-21 tumble

  • Adding weight are nearby tenkan and October lows prior to the Oct. 21 dive

  • Shorts now need the string of higher lows since Oct. 21 to be broken

  • The 76.4% Fibo of Sep-Oct rebound at 104.50 also needs to be closed below

  • Some concern today's 104.65 low was by the lower 21-day Bolli

  • More days above that Bolli point to a 21-DMA test, last 105.40 and falling

  • Oct. 19-20 pre-breakdown lows and cloud base at 105.30/31 are also hurdles

For more click on FXBUZ


Chart Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Oct 26 - 02:35 PM
  • USD/JPY's 105.055 high on EBS hit kijun, 50% Fibo of 105.75/4.345 drop

  • Broad dollar rise on selling of riskier assets was behind the rise

  • Expanding pandemic problems in US & Europe undermine USD-funded risk trades

  • July, Sep & Oct lows at 104.00-345 are daunting for IMM shorts nL1N2HH18I

  • Pre-election U.S. pandemic relief bill odds widen, may wait until 2021

For more click on FXBUZ


Chart Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Oct 26 - 01:40 PM
  • GBP/USD ending NorAm -0.1% at 1.3025, NY range 1.3067-1.2995

  • Early NorAm gains reversed owing to COVID virus, aid & Brexit angst

  • Sterling losing luster as COVID, Brexit move back into focus nL1N2HH178

  • Daily cloud base 1.3011 probed, holds ahead of Oct 27 twist by 1.2881/85

  • Below the cloud 21/30/100-DMA supports 1.2962/1.2924/1.2862

  • Sub-100-DMA puts 100-DMA/lower 21-d Bolli by 1.2720/10 in focus

  • EUR/GBP -0.19% at 0.9076 as negotiators continue to talk nL8N2HH2L1

GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Oct 26 - 01:30 PM

MUFG Research discusses its expectations for this week's ECB meeting on Thursday.

"The ECB meets this week and with the outlook worsening there is certainly an expectation that President Lagarde will signal a strong potential for additional easing at its next meeting in December...We certainly do not view any signal of increased PEPP in December as a signal to sell the euro. EUR/USD will be more determined by how the Fed acts to reinforce its new monetary policy framework of keeping rates lower for longer in order to lift inflation above the 2.0% target level," MUFG notes.

"But that is not to say the macro-economic backdrop in Europe can be entirely ignored and government actions taken over the weekend will weigh on EUR performance. In Italy all bar and restaurants will have to close at 6pm for the next month. Gyms, swimming polls, theatres and cinemas will also close and movement beyond local areas is discouraged. Spain has adopted a nationwide curfew between 11pm and 6am. The ECB is likely to feel compelled to play its part and we should not entirely rule out action at the meeting on Thursday," MUFG adds. 

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Oct 26 - 12:20 PM
  • USD/CAD +0.66% to 1.3210, Monday range 1.3219-1.3123

  • USD broadly bid on haven flows on rising COVID cases, US aid uncertainty

  • Risk broadly weak; CNH -0.55% Oil -3.2%, copper -1.15% on lwr growth tones

  • USD/CAD res 1.3217 21DMA; 1.3251, 50% Fib of 1.3420-1.3081, cloud top 1.3320

  • Support 1.3188 daily cloud base, 1.3123 Monday low, 1.3046 lower 21-d Bolli

CAD Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Oct 26 - 10:45 AM

Nordea Research flags a scope for USD gains into year on the back of tightening USD liquidity impulse.

"Since Mnuchin and the US Treasury prefunded a huge fiscal deal that is likely not going to materialize on this side of the election, the USD liquidity impulse has taken a beating due to Treasury prefunding / cash hoarding ahead of the fiscal deal," Nordea notes. 

"The USD usually regains its footing after a while when the USD liquidity impulse tightens, alongside weaker risk appetite and flatter yield curves. This could be the case over the next 1-2 months before a (much) better 2021 with continued wide scaled QE alongside a fiscal deal that will allow the US Treasury cash account to drop in size," Nordea adds. 

Source:
Nordea Research/Market Commentary
Page 1 2 3 4 5 6

Subscription

  • eFXplus
  • End-user license agreement (EULA)

About

  • About
  • Contact Us

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer
© 2020 eFXdata · All Rights Reserved
!