Synopsis:
ANZ sees gold taking a breather after hitting $2,950/oz, with speculative positioning raising the risk of a correction. While tariff fears and supply disruptions drove recent gains, investors may wait for a pullback to $2,800/oz to rebuild positions. Structural support remains intact as inflation risks and geopolitical tensions bolster gold’s haven appeal.
Key Points:
1️⃣ Gold Pauses After Record Highs 📉
- Prices surged to $2,950/oz before easing.
- Futures-spot spread normalized after tariff-related distortions.
2️⃣ Supply Disruptions & Lease Rates Eased ⚖️
- Supply dislocation had driven lease rates to record highs.
- Comex inventories vs. open interest at 75% suggests US gold imports may slow.
3️⃣ Speculative Positioning Creates Liquidation Risk 🚨
- Crowded speculative trades may trigger further downside.
- Investors likely to buy dips if sentiment remains positive.
4️⃣ Macro Tailwinds Still Supportive 🌍
- Rising tariffs could fuel inflation, delaying rate cuts and increasing stagflation risks.
- Geopolitical tensions remain unresolved, reinforcing gold’s safe-haven demand.
Conclusion:
ANZ expects gold to maintain its long-term appeal but sees near-term downside risks due to speculative positioning. A price pullback toward $2,800/oz would offer a better entry point for fresh positions, while macro uncertainty and inflation concerns continue to support gold’s strategic demand.
