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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
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AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
Nov 13 - 03:48 AM
NZD/USD - Surge On RBNZ Pause Is No Green Light For Bulls Yet
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 13 - 12:35 AM
  • NZD/USD surged after the RBNZ unexpectedly held rates nL4N27S03C

  • But bulls ought to hold back until Wed closing above 0.6420

  • That would blow through Ichimoku Cloud top and enter uptrend channel

  • Two bullish cues could drive Kiwi past 0.6500 and to 200 DMA 0.6573

  • But ahead of Fed chief Powell's speech today, NZD rally in check

  • Powell likely casts non-dovish stance, which could buoy USD










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 13 - 02:36 AM
EUR/USD - Ticks Up Before Fed Chief Powell's Testimony
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 13 - 12:20 AM
  • EUR/USD creeps up before Congressional testimony by Fed's Powell

  • Expected non-dovish remarks from Fed chief after last rate cut

  • Any hint that further easing considered would disrupt USD rally

  • EUR/USD may then emerge from Bollinger downtrend channel top 1.1048

  • Close above roof of Ichimoku Cloud at 1.1064 would break bearish bias

  • Hawkish Powell comments will guide EUR/USD below Cloud base 1.0967











Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 13 - 12:12 AM
AUD/USD - Gives Back Gains Made In Wake Of RBNZ Surprise
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 09:55 PM
  • AUD/USD traded to 0.6858 in sympathy with surging NZD/USD after RBNZ on hold nL4N27T0M7

  • AUD/NZD selling tempered the rise and now AUD/USD back below 0.6840

  • AUD/NZD down around 1.25% to 1.0675 and weighing on AUD/USD

  • AUD/USD support at the 38.2 of the 0.6670/0.6929 move at 0.6830

  • Break below 0.6830 targets the 50% of the move around 0.6800

  • Resistance at the 10-day MA at 0.6876 and break eases the downward pressure






aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 11:00 PM
NZD/USD - Surges Higher After RBNZ Surprises With No Change
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 08:05 PM
  • RBNZ surprised the market by keeping rates on hold at 1.0%

  • Market and economists were looking for a 25 BP cut

  • Market was short into the decision and NZD/USD soaring higher

  • NZD/USD traded to 0.6422 from 0.6335 before decision

  • The break above 0.6375 could see a move towards 0.6466 trend high

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 09:48 PM
AUD/USD - Unmoved By Aus Wage Data Close To Expectations
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 07:40 PM
  • Aus Q3 wage price index came in close to expectations nAZN01JL00

  • AUD/USD hasn't reacted to the data and remains just above 0.6830 support

  • RBNZ decision due shortly will likely have a knock-on impact on the AUD/USD

  • AUD/USD support at 38.2 of the 0.6670/0.6929 move at 0.6830






aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 08:36 PM
GBP/USD - In Wait And See Mode, As The Election Dominates
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 06:35 PM
  • Flat early after a second inside day, as recent consolidation extends

  • Merkel optimistic that Boris's Brexit deal will be passed nL8N27S31R

  • Latest poll has Conservatives with a clear lead but narrowing nL9N26I01C

  • Charts - momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict - neutral setup

  • Range is 1.2770/1.3010 - topside the weak one on a Conservative majority win

  • 1.2700, 38.2% October rise should hold unless the USD surges

  • London 1.2816 low and NY 1.2873 high initial support and resistance

gbp nov 13 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 05:00 PM
GBP: Staying On Caution Side Of GBP But Keep Targeting EUR/GBP Higher For 0.8750 - Danske
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 03:15 PM

Danske Research discusses GBP outlook and maintains a cautious bias but sees a scope for EUR/GBP to recover towards 0.8750 over the coming weeks.

"EUR/GBP went below 0.86 (to 0.857) on news that Nigel Farage suggests he will be standing down some candidates in the upcoming election. This reduces the perceived risk of yet another indecisive parliament in favour of a conservative," Danske notes. 

"We continue to stay on the cautious side of the GBP and expect continued uncertainty to eventually push EUR/GBP higher, targeting 0.875," Danske adds. 

Source:
Danske Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 03:48 PM
USD/JPY - Bulls Still Stumped By Trump, Await Data, Trade Deal
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 01:25 PM
  • USD/JPY softer, but still in tight range after Trump's speech

  • He touted U.S. econ strength, but wants rate lower, negative ok

  • Says close to phase one deal with China, tariffs upped if not nW1N26F00X

  • USD/JPY hovering above 108.99 session low on the speech

  • Says having substantive talks with Japan on trade

  • US to announce Wed if 6-mo hold on auto tariffs will be extended

  • Focus now on Wed's US CPI, Powell testimony and auto tariffs decision

  • Friday's US retail sales a better benchmark for economy, Fed's pause

  • Bulls need a 109.37+ close -- 61.8% of 2019's drop -- to gain traction

  • 110 options hurdles and the 76.4% Fibo at 110.53 eyed on a breakout

  • Daily RSIs top-heavy. Key Fibo & up TL props are at 108.50 on Friday







Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 02:36 PM
GBP/USD - Firm As Election Outlook Favors Conservatives, Tory Majority
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 01:20 PM
  • GBP firm into NY close +0.03% at 1.2860; NorAm range 1.2873-1.2827

  • Pair boosted slightly during Trump comments castigating Fed rate policy

  • Pair offered early, poll shows Tory lead over Labour narrowed nL9N26I01C

  • Sterling in holding pattern between recent high nL2N27S0PQ

  • EUR/GBP -0.22% at 0.8562; Tory victory, majority seen boosting GBP vs EUR

GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 01:24 PM
NZD: RBNZ Likely To Cut Rate Tonight But Won't Sound Extremely Dovish - ANZ
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 11:15 AM

ANZ  Research discusses its expectations for tonight's RBNZ policy meeting.

"The market is tilted in favour of a 25bp cut, in line with our expectations. But the RBNZ’s forward guidance will be important and will dictate moves in the aftermath of the decision.

Overall, data developments don’t suggest that the RBNZ need to be extremely dovish at this November MPS, but they’ll be wary – not wanting to undo the work they’ve done in the past year easing monetary conditions – and cognisant that the February MPS is a long time away," ANZ notes. 

"Putting it all together, we expect that the RBNZ will leave the door ajar to an OCR below 0.75%, with the rate track dipping a smidgen below that and some equivalent words about standing ready to respond to events as they evolve. There’s no need to signal further cuts are likely, but slamming the door shut would risk an unhelpfully hawkish market reaction and tightening in financial conditions – which would be particularly unhelpful when the RBNZ’s next scheduled OCR decision isn’t until February 2020," ANZ adds. 

Source:
ANZ Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 12:12 PM
GBP/USD - Extends North From Pre-UK Data Low Before Trump
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 10:10 AM
  • Cable reaches 1.2851 after extending north from 1.2814 (Ldn am low)

  • That low was plumbed before UK employment data nL2N27S08WnL8N27S2VQ

  • Bids around 1.2851 based Monday's retreat from 1.2896 (high since Nov 6)

  • Ascent to 1.2896 was fuelled by an election gift for the Tories nL8N27R45V

  • Tory majority remains odds-on favourite election outcome nL2N27S0DL

  • Trump speech around 1700GMT might impact the USD nL2N27R10DnL2N27S017

GBPUSD: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 11:00 AM
USD: Still Facing Headwinds M-Term Due To 3 Factors - Citi
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 09:10 AM

Citi discusses the USD outlook and maintains a structural bearish bias, highlighting 3 key factors behind this view.

"USD: Still facing headwinds due to –(1) A likely de-escalation in US – China trade tensions (notwithstanding Friday’s setback) is likely to see firmer Asia EMFX that potentially translates to firmer sentiment in the Commodity Bloc and EUR; (2) Rising US political risks – Trump impeachment risks in a presidential election year in 2020 likely poses significant challenges to President Trump’s economic agenda; (3) Risks of a deeper global economic slowdown with US possibly leading the way," Citi notes. 

 "Citi analysts comment that while it is appropriate to price-out some of the more extreme pessimism for US growth prospects, risks to US activity and inflation remain balanced to the downside. With other central banks constrained, only the Fed is in a position to deliver significant monetary stimulus – thus likely leading to USD weakness,' Citi adds. 

Source:
Citi Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 09:48 AM
EUR/USD: To Remain Under Pressure Unless It Can Move Above 1.1090 N-Term - UOB
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 08:23 AM

UOB Research discusses EUR/USD technical outlook and flags the importance of the 1.1090 level on the upside and the 1.0970 level on the downside.

"Risk of a sustained decline below 1.1000 has increased slightly but there is another strong support at 1.0970. EUR closed lower for the fifth straight day last Friday as it dropped to 1.1015 before closing at 1.1016. The price action is in line with our view from last Wednesday (06 Nov, spot 1.1075) wherein EUR is expected to “trade with a downside bias towards 1.1000”. After the relatively weak daily closing on Friday, the risk for a sustained decline below 1.1000 has increased slightly. However, there is another strong support at 1.0970 and only a clear break of this level would suggest EUR is ready to tackle 1.0930," UOB notes. 

"All in, EUR is expected to stay under pressure unless it can move above 1.1090 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 1.1125 last Friday)," UOB adds. 

Source:
UOB Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 08:36 AM
EUR/USD - Germany's Great Expectations Are Bearish EUR/USD
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 06:25 AM
  • Germany's ZEW survey -2.1 in Nov. Way above -13 f/c and prior -22.8

  • Current conditions barely changed. All the improvement based on hope

  • German investor sentiment jumps on positive trade developments nAPN076FB2

  • Hope supports risk appetite, does not change interest rates

  • Stronger risk appetite and current rates will weigh EUR/USD nL2N27S077

  • ECB QE restarted Nov 1. EUR/USD likely to reach daily cloud base 1.1064







EUR/USD daily Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 07:24 AM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Shorts Exiting Could Be Great News For Bears
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 06:05 AM

EUR/USD bears remain in control, as the technical outlook is negative and a possible reduction of shorts provides space for a deeper drop in coming sessions.
In the week ended Nov.
5, IMM data showed the futures market was short by an equivalent EUR/USD cash position of 7.6 billion euros, up from 6.7 billion euros the previous week.
However, EBS flow data since Nov.
5 shows some of those shorts may have been exited, reducing the chances of a near-term short squeeze because there are fewer buy stops that might be triggered.
The near-term scope is for further losses to test the daily cloud base, now at 1.0967, in coming sessions.
Traders should be mindful that a strong defence of option barriers at 1.1000 is likely.
A break and daily close above the daily cloud top, now at 1.1064, would shift the bias back to the upside.
Related nL2N27O086


IMM Positions Chart: Click here

EBS Flow Data Chart: Click here

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 06:12 AM
EUR/USD - 1-Month Options Get Boost From Dec Fed And ECB Risk
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 03:50 AM
  • EUR/USD 1-month option expiry now Dec. 12, gets Fed and ECB rate meetings

  • Implied vol marked higher to 4.8 from 4.3 (record low is 4.15)

  • Gains highlight the added event risk volatility premium

  • However, any further gains likley limited with spot pinned to tight range

  • Owners need realised volatility to outperform implied, to offset decay costs

  • Realised volatility measures are now trading below implieds

  • Break below big 1.10 barriers can help underpin implied vol nL2N27R04L


EURUSD 1mth vol: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - ZEW's Expected Improvement Won't Alter EUR/USD Direction
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 02:40 AM
  • Germany's November ZEW data seen -13 from -22.8

  • Big improvement but still negative, won't alter current rates/ECB policy

  • ECB APP began Nov 1, so yet to really be felt in FX or bonds

  • Better data will support risk. Risk-on EUR/USD bet is short for carry

  • Data should add weight on EUR/USD within current 1.09-1.12 bounds

  • Daily cloud top @ 1.1064 weighs. Today's range so far below 55-DMA 1.1039














EUR/USD daily Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 03:48 AM
GBP/USD - Loss Of Bullish Momentum Weakens Push To 1.2900
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 02:00 AM
  • Gain consolidation just below Mon's 1.2896 peak and below 10-21-DMAs

  • 14-day momentum remains negative and RSI struggles to confirm the bounce

  • While below the 1.2916 weekly cloud base the risk is skewed to the downside

  • A fade in the 1.2890s with a tight stop above 1.2920 could work

  • Below 1.2769 and all bull bets are off and the 200DMA 1.2725 is back in play

  • We await stronger signals but might consider a short on a failure at 1.2900









GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart: Click here

GBP/USD Weekly Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 02:36 AM
AUD/USD - Shorts May Seek Cover As Trendline Triggers Bounce
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 12 - 12:20 AM
  • AUD/USD recoils after dip to 0.6832, likely spooking shorts

  • Bounce away from trendline support at 0.6826 will deter sellers

  • Bearish momentum running out as general FX volatility ebbs

  • AUD/USD has chance to reclaim losses on close above 20 DMA 0.6860

  • Wavering uncertainty over US-China trade deal ahead of Trump speech

  • Due to speak at Economic Club of New York later today nL4N27S0N3











Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 12 - 12:12 AM
EUR/USD - Edges Lower In Quiet Asian Session
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 11 - 10:00 PM
  • EUR/USD opened 1.1033 and traded in a 1.1036/37 range

  • Heading into the afternoon it is trading round the session low

  • Option related bids ahead of 1.1000 holding for now, but bounces are shallow

  • Support formed at 1.1015 with more support at 61.8 of 1.0879/1.1180 @ 1.0994

  • German ZEW out later today and the uS Treasury market reopens after holiday

  • Trump speaks later today and market will react to comments on US-China talks

  • EUR/USD likely to remain under pressure while 10-day M at 1.1087 caps






eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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