24-HOUR VIEW: EUR could continue to trade sideways, likely within a 1.1170/1.1210 range. Expectation for EUR to “test 1.1230 first before easing off” did not materialize as it traded in a subdued manner between 1.1184 and 1.1215. Momentum indicators have turned neutral which suggest EUR could continue to trade sideways. Expected range for today, 1.1170/1.1210.
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: EUR is likely to trade sideways. There is not much to add to the update from yesterday (27 May, spot at 1.1210). As highlighted, we continue to expect EUR to “trade sideways” but if EUR were to close above the top our expected 1.1130/1.1230 range, it would suggest the start of a stronger and more sustained recovery. The probability for such a move appears to be quite high as long as EUR can hold above 1.1160 within these 1 to 2 days.
24-HOUR VIEW: GBP could edge lower but any weakness is viewed as part of a 1.2640/1.2720 range. GBP moved against our expectation for sideway trading as it declined sharply to an overnight low 1.2667. Despite the relatively large drop, there is no marked improvement in downward momentum. That said, the current soft patch suggests GBP could edge lower from here but any weakness is viewed as part of a 1.2640/1.2720 sideway trading range (prospect for a sustained down-move is not high).
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Short-term bottom in place, GBP is expected to trade sideways. There is not much to add to the update from yesterday (27 May, spot at 1.2725) as GBP touched 1.2754 before easing off. As indicated, last week’s 1.2605 low is deemed as a “short-term bottom” and GBP is expected to trade above this level for a couple of weeks. A stronger recovery is not ruled out but for now, any GBP strength is viewed as part of a 1.2640/1.2850 sideway-trading range. Looking ahead, only a daily closing below 1.2600 would suggest GBP has moved into a fresh ‘negative phase’ instead of unwinding its current oversold conditions. Conversely, a move above 1.2900 would indicate that 1.2605 is a more significant bottom than currently expected.
24-HOUR VIEW: AUD is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 0.6900/0.6935 range. Expectation for AUD to “extend above 0.6945” did not materialize as it eased off quickly and traded mostly sideways. Upward pressure has dissipated and the current price action is viewed as part of consolidation phase. In other words, AUD is expected to trade sideways for today, likely within a 0.6900/0.6935 range.
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Short-term bottom in place, AUD is expected to trade sideways. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below. While we held the view that AUD is in a ‘negative phase’ since late April (see annotations in chart below), we stated since last Tuesday (21 May, spot at that 0.6925) that the “prospect for a move to 0.6835 has diminished” and the “negative phase could be close to ending”. AUD staged a relatively strong advance on Friday (24 May) and touched 0.6935. While our 0.6945 ‘key resistance’ is still intact, the price action is enough to indicate that AUD has found a short-term bottom last week. That said, it is too early to expect a major reversal. From here, AUD is deemed to have moved into a ‘sideway-trading phase’ and is expected to trade between 0.6860 and 0.6985.
24-HOUR VIEW: NZD could drift lower to 0.6525; a sustained decline below this level is not expected. NZD traded between 0.6540 and 0.6559 yesterday, narrow than our expected 0.6535/0.6575 range. The soft daily closing of 0.6544 could result in NZD drifting lower to 0.6525 but in view of the lackluster momentum, a sustained decline below this level in not expected (next support is at 0.6500). Resistance is at 0.6560 followed by 0.6575.
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Short-term bottom is in place; NZD is expected to trade sideways. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below. NZD staged a strong rebound last Friday (24 May) and touched 0.6556. While the level is below our 0.6560 ‘key resistance’, the price action suggests that last Thursday (23 May) low of 0.6482 is a short-term bottom. The development was not unexpected as we indicated earlier on Friday that NZD is “close to making a short-term bottom”. The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a ‘sideway trading phase’. That said, the immediate bias is tilted to the upside even though any NZD strength is viewed as part of a 0.6500/0.6610 range.
24-HOUR VIEW: USD is expected to trade sideways, likely between 109.30 and 109.70. USD did not quite “retest 109.25” as it staged a mild recovery before trading mostly sideways. Momentum indicators are mostly flat now which suggest the current consolidation phase could remain intact for a while more. In other word, USD is expected to trade sideways, likely between 109.30 and 109.70.
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: USD has moved into a sideway-trading phase. USD rebounded after touching 109.27 yesterday even though the recovery lacks momentum. For now, we continue to hold the same view as from last Tuesday (21 May, spot at 110.05) wherein USD is in a “sideway-trading phase”. However, the underlying tone has weakened over the past couple of days and the current consolidation could be resolved with a downside break. That said, USD has to register a close below 109.00 in NY in order to indicate the start of a ‘negative phase’. Meanwhile, USD could continue to trade sideways albeit at a lower range of 109.00/110.30 (instead of the 109.40/110.80 expected previously).