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Mar 27 - 02:55 PM

Credit Agricole: Identifying JPY Intervention Threshold Post USD/JPY Surge

By eFXdata  —  Mar 27 - 01:30 PM


Credit Agricole discusses Japan's financial authorities' potential for intervention as USD/JPY crosses the 2022 intervention mark. Finance Minister Shun’ichi Suzuki's recent statements signal a heightened level of verbal intervention, indicating a critical "line in the sand" around the 152 level for USD/JPY. The bank highlights historical precedents and strategic timings for intervention, suggesting that upcoming holidays might offer an opportune moment for action.

Key Points:

  • USD/JPY Threshold Crossed: The currency pair's advance beyond its 2022 intervention point has elicited strong verbal warnings from Japanese finance officials, hinting at possible proactive measures.

  • Verbal Intervention Scale: Suzuki's remarks have escalated to the highest level on Credit Agricole's verbal intervention scale, signifying potential imminent action to counter excessive currency fluctuations.

  • Strategic Intervention Level: Observations indicate a consistent focus on the 152 mark for USD/JPY, delineating a critical boundary for potential Japanese financial interventions.

  • Historical Precedents and Timing: The analysis references past instances of intervention during global holiday periods, suggesting that similar timing could enhance the impact of any forthcoming measures.


Credit Agricole underscores the significant posture of Japan's financial authorities as USD/JPY exceeds previous intervention levels, with clear signals from Finance Minister Suzuki of readiness to counteract undue market movements. The firm outlines a strategic "line in the sand" at the 152 level, coupled with insights on the tactical timing for intervention. As global markets approach the holiday season, the anticipation of Japanese intervention looms larger, potentially setting the stage for decisive actions to stabilize the yen's valuation.

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary


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