Credit Agricole CIB Research previews Fed Warsh speech at Jackson Hole on Froday.

"While a number of papers on the central topic will be presented on Friday and Saturday, markets will be primarily focused on the keynote speech from Chair Kevin Warsh. This will take place on Friday 28 August at 10:00 EDT, the typical timeslot for the Chair’s speech," CACIB notes.

"Warsh has made his disdain for guidance clear, and despite criticism of his July press conference, we do not think he will change tack. Instead, Warsh may choose to focus on big picture questions, laying out a case for why the five task forces he announced at the beginning of his tenure are important. This could involve an early peek into the ideas that have come out of the task forces so far, though we do not expect the final recommendations to be available until closer to the end of the year. This timing could in theory give Warsh cover to push for rates to remain on hold until the task forces have finished their work, though we do not think this will be the definitive factor behind the Fed’s upcoming decisions," CACIB adds.

• AUD/USD +0.4% from Tue 0.7137 low as DXY softens amid moderating oil prices

• AU Jul CPI due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.8% m/m, +3.3% y/y (headline)

• U.S. Jul PCE price index Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.1% m/m, +3.6% y/y

• Brent crude -5.4%, sanction pressure deemed safer than military escalation

• Pair targets break above 0.7200, may spur move toward 0.72825 Jun 2022 high

• AUD pushing upper hourly Bollinger band, progress higher will be tempered

• Fed Chair Warsh speech at Jackson Hole Fri will be heavily scrutinized

• Overnight range 0.7137-68 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7190-00 0.7282
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA


AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP trades either side of flat in NY afternoon, +0.08% at 1.3638; Tues range 1.3652-23

• Slight range amid seasonal illiquidity, marts cautious pre-Jackson Hole Symposium

• Fed Chair Warsh to give keynote address Friday at 10AM the main event

• Pair steady amid slide in oil, despite expanded sanctions on Iran; UK fiscal angst ebbs

• UK long-end gilts follow UST yields lwr after US Trsry Sec Bessent raises buyback pgm

• GBP$ supt 1.3619 Friday low, 1.3600 psychological lvl, 1.3573 rising 10-DMA

• Res 1.3656 daily high Aug 24, 1.3672 upper 30-d Bolli, 1.3712 daily high Feb 11

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Deutsche Banl previews Fed Warsh speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.

"Warsh's Jackson Hole speech provides a timely opportunity for the Fed's new leader to clarify his vision for the central bank, either through a "big picture" talk focused on the task forces or through a policy-relevant discourse that cleans up some missteps in recent communications and presents scenarios for the outlook," DB notes.

"Given his overall inclination to provide limited information about the policy outlook, we think his comments will most likely skew to the former, though we will be attentive to any additional signals on the latter," DB adds.

• Cryptocurrency and blockchain-related firms gain on Tues after Bitcoin popped above $80,000

• Bitcoin rose nearly 3% earlier on Tues and touched $81,237.94, its highest level since mid-May; world's largest cryptocurrency has since eased and currently up 0.5% at $79,311.36

• BTC jumped last week after U.S. President Donald Trump urged Congress to pass a crypto bill, and received a big boost after Treasury Department's move to support ​long-dated bonds renewed so-called debasement trade fears

• BTC has rallied roughly 25% over the past seven sessions, trimming YTD loss to about 10%; it's still well below the all-time high of around $126,000 hit in Oct 2025

• Shares of crypto exchange Coinbase Global up 4% on Tues

• BTC hoarder Strategy rises 4%. Michael Saylor-led firm's stock rose on Mon after it set aside about $1.6 bln in cash to fund bitcoin purchases, buybacks among other corporate events

• Retail trading platform Robinhood Markets surges >7% on the session

• Crypto miners lift: Riot Platforms Inc 7%, Mara Holdings 7%, Bit Digital >6%

• Shares of American Bitcoin , backed by two eldest sons of President Trump, up 7%; ABTC is a majority-owned subsidiary of Hut 8 , which is up 5%

• BTC mining machine maker Canaan up ~8%, stablecoin issuer Circle Internet up 4%

• ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF and iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF both up about 1% on Tues

• Ether has also picked up steam recently and last week hit its highest level since Jan; ETH currently up 0.3% at $2,482.05

• Ether-linked stocks Bitmine Immersion Technologies

and Sharplink Gaming up 5% and 3%, respectively, on Tues
(Lance Tupper is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Sterling appears likely to continue its upward trajectory after hitting a fresh six-month high of 1.3675 on Friday, and while recent attempts to push higher in the mid-1.36s have faced resistance, robust support near 1.3620 over the past few sessions suggests a building bullish sentiment. Markets largely brushed off Monday's announcement of more stringent U.S. sanctions on Iran, with only a minor reaction in currency markets, though oil prices dipped, indicating a favorable market reception to the news. Attention now turns to the upcoming Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, August 27-29, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is set to deliver the keynote address. Market participants will be keen to decipher any insights Warsh might provide regarding Fed policy this year. Futures markets indicate a more than 60% chance of a 25bp hike at the October FOMC meeting, with expectations fully priced in for December.

Traders will be eager for any hints on U.S. inflation and growth, which could influence policy. Warsh faces a delicate balance, given that his previous commitment to let the data speak disappointed markets after the last Fed rate hold. Warsh is not alone in focus. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has sought to guide long-term yields lower via expanded long-end U.S. Treasuries buybacks to ease fiscal fears. Should Warsh disappoint bond vigilantes—appearing too dovish against above-target inflation—the recent yield dip risks unraveling, dragging the dollar lower.

Technically, sterling finds support around 1.3620, the Friday-Tuesday low area, followed by the rising 10-DMA at 1.3575, which has provided support since early August. On the upside, initial resistance lies at Friday's six-month high of 1.3675, with further resistance at 1.3712, the February 11 daily high.
Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research summarizes the latest G10 FX flows heading into this week's Fed Warsh speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.

"The partial unwinding of USD longs, esp. vs GBP and CHF, has been the main G10 FX flows theme post-July FOMC  Still, the USD longs added after the June FOMC have not been fully unwound on some metrics, so the USD sell-off could extend if Chair Warsh disappoints markets. Last week's vol action was telling in that regard. USD aside, the lack of meaningful JPY demand has been another highlight from our flows signals - we remain bullish on JPY," BofA notes.

"Equity flows have failed to cushion the recent USD sell-off: Relative equity inflows have not offset the recent USD sell-off. Within G4 FX, relative equity flows this year have favoured GBP, JPY and USD over EUR, while fixed income flows have favoured EUR and GBP over USD," BofA adds.

• Cable has traded a 26.5 pip range since the London open; 1.36225-1.3649

• Those parameters are within Monday's range, which was itself within Friday's range

• 1.36555 was Monday high, in Asia (1.3648 was Ldn/NY session high Monday)

• Monday low was 1.3621. Friday range was 1.3619-1.36745 (six-month high before low)

• GBP/EUR continues to respect 1.17 resistance level

• Why the bond market may be resetting expectations about the United States

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD opens near flat to kick off NY session. Ranges narrow but trend higher is intact

• RBA minutes - board discussed Aug rate hike, reiterated readiness to act if necessary

• AU CPI due Wed, little priced in AU rates, suggests limited room for a dovish repricing

• Initial support at the 200-hour MAs (0.7113-20), which has guided the trend higher since July

• Topside objectives remain unchanged at 0.7200 and the year-to-date high at 0.7277

• Related comment:
AUDUSD hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• USD/JPY risen from 159.06 to 159.48, on Tuesday, according to EBS data

• Spot's recovery persists after finding support at the key 158.03 Fibo

• The 158.03 Fibo is a 38.2% retrace of the 155.20-159.78 rise

• Likely solid resistance near last week's 159.78 peak

• Note both the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY usually struggle in August

Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD has traded a 16.5 pip range thus far Tuesday; 0.71425-0.7159

• The base of that range is two pips above Monday low

• 0.7180 was Friday's 11-week peak. It is also a 76.4% Fibo resistance level

• Australian July inflation data is due at 0130 GMT: CPI forecast at 3.3% YY

• Trimmed mean forecast at 3.5%. AUD might strengthen on hotter prints

• Minutes show RBA debated rate hike before unanimous hold on August 11

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• On Aug 18 traders were short euros equivalent $8.5 billion

• EUR/USD rose from 1.1353 on Jul 28 to 1.1614 Aug 17

• Pair extended its rise to 1.1711 on Aug 21

• 21-DMA at 1.1562 set to cross above 100-DMA at 1.1575

• If confirmed buy signal may trigger short-covering

• Dollar's big long bet persists, raising risk of deeper decline

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a meagre 16.5 pip range thus far Tuesday; 1.36225-1.3639

• The base of that range is 1.5 pips above Monday low (1.3619 was Friday low)

• U.S. Treasury buybacks a "mistake" costing credibility, says Druckenmiller

• Dollar fell on last week's buyback news, with GBP/USD vaulting 1.3600

• 1.36745 was six-month high for cable on Friday (before retreat to 1.3619)

• Bond market anxiety raises stakes for Warsh's debut Jackson Hole speech

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Aureka rise as much as 19.1% to A$0.125, marking their biggest intraday pct gain since February 25

• Shares hit their highest level since April 13

• Mineral explorer reports high-grade gold and silver findings in two separate zones at its Comstock gold project in Australia

• Says lack of significant sulphides suggests gold can be recovered relatively easily, which will be confirmed with a metallurgical testing programme

• YTD, stock down 20.7%, including session's moves

(Reporting by Subhalakshmi Dey in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD -0.2% wtd but remains 3.4% higher since beginning of Jul

• Pair targets break above 0.7200, may spur move toward 0.72825 Jun 2022 high

• RBA Head of Domestic Markets David Jacobs speaking in Sydney 0400 GMT Tue

• AU Jul CPI due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.8% m/m, +3.3% y/y (headline)

• U.S. Jul PCE price index Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.1% m/m, +3.6% y/y

• Fed Chair Warsh speech at Jackson Hole Fri potential highlight of the week

• Harsher Iran sanctions and U.S.-CA trade trouble gives USD support

• Range Asia 0.7149-59 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7190-00 0.7277-82
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• XAU/USD up 0.4% in Asia, pares gains after rallying 1% on Tuesday

• Eases on profit-taking after nearing psychological $ 4700

• Asia range 4649.82-4696.18; downside limited on dollar-debasement fears

• U.S. measures aimed at capping long-dated yields sparks rush to safe havens

• Receding Fed rate expectations, global growth concerns will underpin gold

• Technical picture positive after daily close above 200-day MA at $4515

• Next objective is the 50% retracement of Jan-July decline at 4769

• Support 4650, 4625, 4590-4600; Monday range 4594.13-4680.70
XAU:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Tue, RBA meeting minutes confirm willingness to hike if needed

• RBA Head of Domestic Markets David Jacobs speaking in Sydney 0400 GMT Tue

• AU Jul CPI due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.8% m/m, +3.3% y/y (headline)

• U.S. Jul PCE price index Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.1% m/m, +3.6% y/y

• Fed Chair Warsh speech at Jackson Hole Fri potential highlight of the week

• Expanding Iran sanctions and U.S.-CA trade tensions lending USD support

• AUD break of 0.7200 resistance would open door to 0.72825 high from Jun 2022

• Range Asia 0.7149-59 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7200 0.7277-82
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY went nowhere yesterday, on hold around 159.00, Asia 159.06-15

• Could be inside day after 158.68-159.28 range yesterday

• End-summer to keep action light, market thin, pre-Jackson Hole too

• USD tad better bid elsewhere and seen USD/JPY supportive

• Ascending daily Ichi cloud 159.86-161.95 above, 200/100-DMAs 158.37/159.98

• Most action to continue between these two moving averages?

• 159.13 200-HMA at to work as pivot as was case yesterday? 100-HMA 158.90

• Again, few significant nearby option expiries today, only 159.00-05 $613 mln

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials tad wider, in 2s to 255, 10s @182 bps

• Tokyo fix to seen usual Japanese importer Gotobi demand, exporter offers too

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on Bessent plans , ,

• US markets , , ,

• On Middle East , ,
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD -0.35% from Mon 0.5982 as USD index recovers 0.2% Mon

• Expanding Iran sanctions and U.S.-CA trade tensions provide USD uplift

• NZD targeting break above 0.5990-95, expect stop-loss scramble above

• U.S. Jul PCE price index Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.1% m/m, +3.6% y/y

• Fed Chair Warsh speech at Jackson Hole Fri will be closely scrutinized

• Range NZ 0.5955-61, support 0.5831 0.5762, resistance 0.5995 0.6090-95
NZD Daily 21/100/200-DMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.4% from Mon 0.71762 high; expansion of Iran sanctions lifts DXY

• RBA Aug monetary policy meeting minutes due for release 0130 GMT

• Traders sensitive to any signs of ongoing RBA bias towards higher OCR

• AUD targets 0.7200 resistance, break would open topside towards 0.7282

• RBA Head of Domestic Markets David Jacobs speaking in Sydney Tue

• AU Jul CPI due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.8% m/m, +3.2% y/y (headline)

• Overnight range 0.71405-71 support 0.6920, resistance 0.7200 0.7277-82
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Morgan Stanley Research sees a scope for USD downside in the near-term especially vs CHF.

"We expect renewed focus on US currency policy to weigh on the USD in the near term, particularly versus  CHF,"MS notes.

"The USD traded at a ~3% discount to yield differentials in January 2026 as investors discussed various policy levers the administration might choose to weaken the USD.

Discussion at the time centered on a range of potential policy channels, including intervention, Fed leadership, Greenland-related developments and a proposed sovereign wealth fund. FX US. This discount compressed after Mr. Warsh's Fed nomination. 

The USD then traded at a ~3% premium to yield differentials in March following geopolitical developments in the Middle East, before converging back to roughly yield-implied levels in May and June," MS adds.

• Bessent announces expansion of Iran sanctions

• Trade tensions weigh on Canadian dollar

• Trump says 50% tariffs on vehicles, parts and steel start January 1, 2027

(Updates to afternoon trading)

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK, Aug 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar advanced on Monday, coming off its third weekly decline in four that sent the greenback to three-month lows after President Donald Trump's administration announced an expansion of sanctions on Iran and separate tariffs on goods from Canada. The greenback extended gains after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the expansion of secondary sanctions in hopes they will "sever every economic lifeline" that sustains Iran in the latest effort to pressure Tehran into ending its attacks on ships in the Gulf.

After last week's announcement by the Treasury Department that it would double the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated notes and bonds, CNBC reported earlier on Monday, citing two senior Treasury officials, that Bessent could tap the department's near $1 trillion General Account to help fund bond buybacks, instead of issuing short-term bills.

The dollar briefly pared some gains after the report, along with longer-dated Treasury yields.

"If the reporting is true that the Treasury is going to announce using a slug of its Treasury General Account at the Fed to buy longer-term bonds, it could be an interesting experiment. Does firing a bazooka at a hurricane work?" said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.

"Lower bond yields at the long end won’t fix the debt problem. Longer term, it could make it worse. The government’s debt burden would become even more sensitive to changes in the Fed’s policy rate."

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.17% to 98.99, with the euro down 0.14% at $1.1663. Long-end yields have been climbing around the globe due to a combination of a solid economic growth outlook, expectations for rising inflation and concern about swelling sovereign debts, while the Treasury buyback expansion to relieve upward pressure on yields has fueled concerns the dollar will weaken as a result.

CANADIAN DOLLAR WEAKENS ON TARIFFS Trade tensions weighed on the Canadian dollar , which weakened 0.61%, its biggest drop since June 17, versus the greenback to C$1.385 per dollar and was on track to snap a three-day streak of gains, after Washington imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, with Canada promising to retaliate "dollar for dollar" on the new levies.

Trump said in a social media post on Monday that the U.S. will increase tariffs to 50% on all cars, trucks, automotive parts and steel from Canada starting January 1, 2027.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said a "mutually beneficial deal" with the U.S. was possible, but only if Americans respect Canada's sovereignty. Sterling dipped 0.06% to $1.3632, holding near its six-month high of $1.3675 hit on Friday. The Japanese yen softened 0.13% against the greenback to 159.13 per dollar.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 2.05% to $78,993.42 after registering its largest weekly gain in nearly 3-1/2 years last week.

KEY DATA RELEASES, WARSH REMARKS EYED

U.S. economic data this week includes the personal consumption expenditures price index, personal income and spending, consumer confidence and the second estimate of second-quarter economic growth. Market participants will also be hoping for some guidance on the outlook for U.S. interest rates when Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday.

However, UBS economists said in a note that Warsh's "quest to end any and all forms of forward guidance suggests we probably won't hear where the funds rate is headed," while Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist Michael Gapen said, "We expect silence on the near-term outlook for monetary policy, including the expansion of the Treasury buyback program."

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(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; additional reporting by Tom Westbrook in Singapore and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Lisa Shumaker)

((; @chuckmik.bsky.social))

(Adds chart)

• AUD marginally softer, tracking the broader risk-off tone, with the SPX down around 0.3%

• Spot has stalled ahead of 0.7200, but the broader technical setup remains constructive

• Firm gold prices should provide an element of underlying support, although gold has eased from the highs

• Initial support is seen at 0.7100-10, coinciding with the 200-hour moving averages

• The 200-hour MAs have guided the uptrend since August, making a hold here important for bulls

• A sustained break below 0.7100 would weaken the setup and point to a more neutral near-term tone

• On the topside, 0.7200 remains the key resistance and bullish trigger
AUDUSD


(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own) ((Email: ))