Goldman Sachs Research remains skeptical on the scope of Japan's MoF intervention to cap USD/JPY upside.

"The biggest headwind to JPY continues to be the broader backdrop of elevated oil prices, US growth outperformance, higher-for-longer rates, and constructive risk sentiment- each of which tend to push up USD/JPY. Currency-negative fundamentals likely explain what appears to be the smaller impact of intervention on USD/JPY per $bn over the two weeks since April 30 compared to the interventions in October 2022 and July 2024, when macro conditions were also pushing in the same direction," GS notes.

 "Overall, we continue to be skeptical that intervention can be successful in driving USD/JPY sustainably lower without a shift towards greater recession concerns or much more hawkish BoJ," GS adds.