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Jan 27 - 12:55 PM

AUD/USD: Overvalued And Overbought; Position Squaring-Related Downside Risk Is High - Credit Agricole

By eFXdata  —  Jan 27 - 10:45 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research flags a scope for a downside correction in AUD/USD from the positioning and valuation front.

"Our FAST FX and Positioning models suggest downside risk for AUD/USD. The primary model for AUD/USD in our FAST FX model estimates that the exchange rate’s short-term fair value was 0.7468 at the end of last week and that the exchange rate was more than 1.5 standard deviations above this fair value," CACIB notes.

"Our positioning indicator also suggests that the AUD is trading in strongly overbought territory. So, position squaring-related downside risk remains high," CACIB adds. 

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary


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