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Thomson Reuters
Mar 13 - 09:48 AM
First appeared on eFXplus on Mar 12 - 10:31 PM

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Pressure shifted back to the downside but expect strong support at 1.2220. No change in view.

EUR hit a ‘fresh’ low of 1.2271 last Friday but rebounded to close almost unchanged for the day. We continue to hold the view that the immediate pressure is on the downside even though ‘neutral’ shorter-term indicators suggest that EUR could trade sideways for a few days first before moving lower to test the solid support at 1.2220. At this stage, a sustained move below this level seems unlikely. Resistance is at 1.2370 but only a move above 1.2420 would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 07 Mar 18, 1.3895): Mild downward pressure has eased, in a higher range of 1.3800/1.4000.

GBP edged above the top of our expected 1.3700/1.3900 consolidation range yesterday (high of 1.3917). The recent mild downward pressure has eased but there is no change to the current neutral outlook. That said, the improved undertone suggests that GBP could edge higher in the next few days but at this stage, any advance is viewed as part of a higher 1.3800/1.4000 consolidation range and not the start of a sustained rally.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 15 Feb 18, 0.7925): Rebound has scope to extend higher. No change in view.

After trading sideways for several days, AUD staged a surprisingly strong up-move last Friday and is currently approaching the top of our previously expected 0.7715/0.7880 range. While we continue hold a neutral view on AUD, improving shorter-term momentum suggests that there is scope for the current strong rebound to extend higher towards 0.7940. At this stage, the odds for a sustained move above this level are not high (next resistance is at 0.7990). Overall, we expect AUD to stay underpinned for the next several days and only a break below the key support at 0.7780 would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): Rebound has scope to extend higher towards 0.7350. No change in view.

We have held the same view that the rebound in NZD “has scope to extend higher towards 0.7350” since last Wednesday (07 Mar, spot at 0.7290). The relatively strong daily closing last Friday reinforces our view. 0.7350 is a strong resistance and at this stage, a sustained move above this level seems unlikely. Overall, NZD is expected to stay underpinned for now unless there is break back below the key support at 0.7220.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): Prospect for a stronger recovery has diminished.

Despite overall positive outlook, USD has not been able to make much headway on the upside (USD eased off quickly after touching a high of 106.97 yesterday). The prospect of a recovery above 107.00 is still intact but has diminished. From here, a clear break below 106.00 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased and that USD has moved back into a consolidation phase.

UOB Research


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