Credit Agricole CIB Research previews the November RBA decision on Tuesday.

"Australian inflation data and further hawkish rhetoric last week point to the RBA raising rates this week for a fifth time this year taking the cash rate to 4.85%. Risk-off trading following disappointing US technology stock earnings leaves AUD/USD struggling to surmount upside resistance at 0.7050, however, which would clear the way for the exchange rate to make a run at 0.7100," CACIB notes.

"The RBA could lower its growth forecasts, however, due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as well as falling house prices, both of which will drag on household consumption. But the central bank will continue to emphasise prolonged weakness in growth is needed to get inflation back lower nullifying the impact on the market from potentially lower growth forecasts. So the overall tone of the SMP and press conference is likely to be hawkish," CACIB adds,

(Adds headline)

• NY opened near 0.7010 after 0.7035 traded overnight, drop extended in early NY

• Firm USD, US yields helped sink AUD/USD down to 0.6999, a 7-session low

• Rally ensued after report out of Iran drove hopes for peaceful resolution to the conflict

• USD, US yields , oil fell while stocks, gold, silver copper rallied

• AUD/USD hit 0.7021 then neared 0.7010 late, was down -0.30% in NY's afternoon

• Falling RSIs, hold below the 10- & 200-DMAs are concerns for AUD/UDS bulls

• RBA rate decision looms, hike expected, statement & presser will be in focus
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research previews the November BoE decision on Thursday.

"We don't expect a BoE display that will scare the children on 5^th November. A 25bp hike is the catherine wheel that has been pinned to the post for a long time, but we see this is a 'safety first' event - resilient real data and the threat from energy price pass through justifies action. But it is preemptive insofar as it's about the threat of second round effects; actual signs of such effects are conspicuously modest so far," BofA notes.

"Without ruling anything out, we expect the MPC to temper the market's enthusiasm for an aggressive hiking trajectory, which would likley be seen ex-poste as a gentle appeal for calm. With this in mind, we recommend receiving June MPC-dated Sonia. The UK is not the only place where we see fewer hikes than the market prices, but it is where our market-vs-forecast "hawkish gap" is greatest. If we're right, a "dovish hike" would be a headwind for GBP, but we don't expect that it would do lasting damage with fundamentals improving," BofA adds.

• EUR/CHF has hugged 0.92 since November got underway

• 0.91875-0.92135 is the EBS range since the European open

• The base of that range is three pips above Friday's 17-week low

• EUR/CHF fell 3% in October (0.9486 was EBS 17-month high on Sept 30)

• Swiss Oct inflation data due Tuesday at 0730 GMT; CPI forecast at 1.3%

• SNB is expected to keep its policy rate at zero next month (Dec 10)

EURCHF

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan discusses AUD outlook into the November RBA meeting on Tuesday.

"Following stronger-than-expected 3Q CPI data, the RBA is now widely expected to hike this week. Recent commentary from RBA leadership reiterated that Image 2 officials remain acutely focused on returning inflation to target and have shown greater tolerance for activity weakness (evident in GDP/labor data). Given current pricing, the focus for FX investors will be on the guidance, particularly in light of the RBA's front-footed approach relative to other DM central banks," JPM notes.

"We expect the RBA to retain a hawkish bias and flag that further rate hikes are possible, but given the Board's reactive nature of late, the upcoming CPI data will determine the future path of monetary policy. From a top-down perspective, we are bullish AUD on the crosses given an attractive terms of trade and carry profile. We expect a modest rebound in AUD/USD back up to 0.71 by year-end, holding within the 2H26 range," JPM adds.

Goldman Sachs on its JPY bias over the short- and long-term.

"With a relatively in-line BoJ out of the way, near-term catalysts for JPY strength look limited. But the potential for continued signs of a possible GPIF allocation shift over time, as well as the new quarterly pace of hikes from the BoJ and likely continued AI-related volatility, should further support JPY, especially if some reallocation becomes visible in the data," GS notes.

"Overall, we continue to favor being short EUR/JPY over the shorter-term as we see several EUR-negative risks to navigate in the months ahead, but we think USD/JPY has further to fall over the longer-term," GS adds.

(Adds headline)

• 0.7035-0.7004 traded overnight, NY opened near that low, down -0.40%

• The pair slowly drifted down in Asia, selling accelerated in Europe

• Downbeat China Oct.PMI helped to weigh on AUD/USD during Asia trading

• USD buying in Europe, firm US yields then added weight

• AUD/USD fell despite gold, silver, equities rallies & drop in USD/CNH

• AUD/USD fell below the 10-DMA & daily RSI turned down; are worries for bulls

• Pair hit a 7-session low, probes short-term support; those add to bulls' worries

• US Oct. S&P Global PMI, ISM manufacturing PMI are data risks in NY

• RBA cash rate decision is a key risk during Asia trading Tuesday
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• US-listed shares of gold miners gain premarket, tracking rise in prices of the precious metal [GOL/]

• Spot gold up 0.6% at $3,898.19/ounce, having ended 3.6% lower and hit its lowest since October 2025 on Friday

• Gold prices rebound after hitting a one-year low in the previous session, as a drop in oil prices eased some inflation concerns, while investors turned their focus to this week's US midterm elections and their broader impact on fiscal policies

• Top miners Newmont , Barrick Gold up 1.3% and 1.4%, respectively

• South African miners Gold Fields , Harmony Gold , AngloGold Ashanti and Sibanye-Stillwater

gain between 1.4% and ~3%

• Canadian miner Agnico Eagle Mines adds 1.6% and Kinross Gold rises ~2%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

Nov 2 (Reuters) - The euro usually rises against the yen in November and signs on the daily chart suggest the pattern could repeat this year.

EUR/JPY's seasonal performance since 2000 shows it has risen in 17 of the last 26 years, or 65% of the time. While seasonality patterns should not be considered in isolation, when combined with other factors they can become a useful tool.

Friday's EUR/JPY candle left a long tail and that points to a possible rejection of the downside. There is scope for a bigger recovery through the 178.00 level, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 187.43-175.09 (July to November) EBS fall. A break and daily close above the 178.00 level would add to the bullish market structure and increase the likelihood that the cross will end November in positive territory.

However, those who are bullish should be mindful that the 14-day momentum reading is negative, though it could be on the verge of turning positive this week.
Daily Chart


Seasonality Chart

(USD/JPY Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Louise Heavens)

• German Sep retail sales expected 0.4% fell 2.0% mm

• Despite data EUR/USD rallied from 1.1185

• Two hours after data pair reaches 1.1235

• Key bearish drivers have reversed

• USD gains halt after traders prepared for a rise

• It may be wise to hedge risk EUR/NOK rallies

•
EURUSD hourly chart

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Brent Crude oil is $8 pb below Friday's peak

• Less stress from French bonds - spreads tighter

• US/German 10 year spread tightening 25bps in past month

• In past month bets on euro falling have tripled to $20 billion

• Many more prepared from euro drop, less likely to happen

•
EURUSD and betting

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Corrected GMT time on first line)

• FX options expire at 10am New York / 15:00 GMT on Monday November 2

• EUR/USD: 1.1025 (545M), 1.1100 (452M), 1.1125-30 (421M), 1.1150 (3.2B), 1.1175-80 (1.3B), 1.1195-1.1200 (972M)

• EUR/USD: 1.1215-20 (418M), 1.1245-50 (687M), 1.1270-75 (570M), 1.1325-30 (497M), 1.1350-55 (640M), 1.1400 (1.4B)

• USD/JPY: 155.00-05 (662M), 155.10 (350M), 156.00 (605M), 156.15-20 (275M), 156.98-157.00 (1.5B), 157.25-30 (501M)

• USD/JPY: 158.00 (1.2B), 158.60-61 (212M), 159.25 (398M). EUR/JPY: 174.00 (587M), 175.00 (639M), 176.00 (650M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3345-50 (267M), 1.3415 (383M). EUR/GBP: 0.8480 (250M), 0.8515 (274M), 0.8600-05 (442M)

• USD/CHF: 0.7995-0.8000 (373M), 0.8255-60 (219M), 0.8300 (952M). EUR/CHF: 0.9290 (1.8B), 0.9450 (201M)

• EUR/SEK: 10.9800 (458M), 11.1000 (300M), 11.1500 (350M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6845-50 (308M), 0.6910 (432M), 0.6950-55 (416M), 0.6970-75 (393M), 0.6990-95 (444M), 0.7025-30 (500M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7050 (350M), 0.7095-0.7100 (642M), 0.7130 (226M), 0.7165-70 (574M), 0.7425-30 (280M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5200 (200M), 0.5695-0.5700 (424M) USD/CAD: 1.3805 (280M), 1.3975-80 (880M), 1.4050 (219M)

• USD/ZAR: 16.6000-16.6120 (1.0B), 16.6500-16.6600 (486M)(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Americans head to the polls on Tuesday

• Democrats widely predicted to win the House of Representatives

• Binance sees spike in withdrawals after hack; crypto wobbles

• Euro under pressure from Fitch's revision of France's outlook

(Updates to Asia afternoon)

By Rae Wee

SINGAPORE, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The dollar and other major currencies were in a holding pattern on Monday as investors turned their attention to this week's US midterm elections, which could shift the balance of power in Congress and control over the federal purse strings.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and ether rebounded slightly following last week's record $6.3 billion heist at Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange.

Traders were bracing for a packed week dominated by the US midterm elections, October US jobs data and central bank rate decisions in Britain, Australia, Norway and Sweden.

Ahead of the week's events, the euro was nursing losses and remained not far from a 17-month low at $1.1182 in Asian trade, weighed down by Fitch's revision of France's outlook to "negative" from "stable" after Friday's close.

Sterling was little changed at $1.3394, while the dollar eased 0.15% to 101.83 against a basket of currencies.

Americans head to the polls on Tuesday to determine whether Democrats can wrest control of Congress away from US President ​Donald Trump's Republican Party. Democrats are widely predicted to win the House of Representatives, but the Senate is more in doubt.

"The challenge we face in analysing election outcomes is that polling suggests strong anti-incumbent sentiment, but that does not always translate into actual election outcomes - as we have seen in Brazil and now in Israel," said Eric Robertsen, global head of research and chief strategist at Standard Chartered.

In the event of a Democratic sweep of Congress, Robertsen said spending plans for data centres and AI infrastructure could face increasing obstacles at the state level, while the next debate on raising the US debt ceiling would be among the most contentious in recent history.

Meanwhile, Andreja Cobeljic, head of derivatives trading at AMINA Bank, said hedge funds had suffered "significant losses" in October, leaving markets with "little capacity" to absorb any surprises from the midterm elections.

In other currencies, the yen fell 0.1% to 157.73 per dollar. Japan's real interest rates have risen recently, especially in the long- and super-long zones, the central bank said on Monday in a full version of its quarterly outlook report.

The Australian dollar eased 0.15% to $0.7022 ahead of Tuesday's policy decision, where the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to raise its cash rate to a near two-decade high of 4.85%.

The New Zealand dollar fell 0.26% to $0.5616, having slid 1.2% last week in the wake of its central bank's surprise decision to leave rates unchanged.

Elsewhere, bitcoin was up 0.6% at $78,262.63, having fallen to a six-week low on Friday. Ether rose 1.14% to $2,287.18, having similarly slid to a two-month trough last week.

Binance customers pulled $3.64 billion, or 2.1% of its assets, as the world's biggest crypto exchange resumed service after hackers stole $6.3 billion from the platform last week in a security breach that the FBI has blamed on North Korea.

The exchange moved to reassure crypto investors and said withdrawals were stabilising after an initial spike and deposit volumes had remained "substantial" after what analysts believe may be the world's biggest financial robbery ever.

"While the incident delivered a shock to market confidence, it has not yet triggered widespread panic or a massive, concentrated withdrawal by users," said Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group.

"On the one hand, the capital outflows likely include normal withdrawal and asset adjustment demands; on the other hand, some investors may not have transferred their funds to other exchanges, choosing instead to disperse asset risks through self-custody wallets or similar methods."

(Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Lincoln Feast and Jamie Freed)

• USD/JPY rallies 0.15% after early Asia dip on risk aversion fades

• Decline to 157.45 from Fri 157.64 close sees strong demand on Fed rate bets

• Steady rise to 157.98 ensues as traders brace for US mid terms on Tuesday

• Japan sees no change in US FX coordination after midterm elections-Katayama

• EUR/JPY +0.2% after falling to a 1-yr low on Fri amid Europe fiscal concerns

• Upside for pair limited on France outlook cut, Frankfurt riots and looting

• USD support 157.40-45, 157.00-05, resistance 158.00-10, 158.50-60
JPY rates

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 3.7%, posting their biggest intraday pct drop since October 23

• Despite a slight uptick in gold prices in early Asia trade, bullion hovered near a more-than-one-year low, as persistent inflation concerns reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates later this year [GOL/]

• Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, reducing its appeal to investors

• Shares of Evolution Mining fall 2.3%, while Northern Star Resources down 3.8%

• YTD, gold sector is down over 9%

(Reporting by Shruti Agarwal in Bengaluru)

• NZD/USD -0.1% Mon, activity subdued despite building macro uncertainty

• NZ Q3 jobs data due Wed (prior 5.6% unemployment, +0.5% jobs growth q/q)

• Futures pricing currently implies 73.6% probability of Dec 9 RBNZ hike

• Attention turns to U.S. midterm elections with control of Congress at stake

• AI trade worries continue to build on capex concerns, Nasdaq -2.9% Fri

• Iran state media reports two tankers damaged by mines in Strait of Hormuz

• NZD fails to sustain rally above 0.5639 21-DMA, drift lower likely

• Range NZ 0.5622-29, support 0.5566 0.5485, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Americans head to the polls on Tuesday

• Democrats widely predicted to win the House of Representatives

• Binance sees spike in withdrawals after hack; crypto wobbles

• Euro under pressure from Fitch's revision of France's outlook

By Rae Wee

SINGAPORE, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The dollar and other major currencies were in a holding pattern on Monday as investors turned their attention to this week's US midterm elections, which could shift the balance of power in Congress and control over the federal purse strings.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and ether were nursing losses following last week's record $6.3 billion heist at Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange.

Traders were bracing for a packed week dominated by the US midterm elections, October US jobs data and central bank rate decisions in the UK, Australia, Norway and Sweden.

Ahead of the week's events, the euro languished near a 17-month low at $1.1159 in early Asian trade, weighed down by Fitch's revision of France's outlook to "negative" from "stable" after Friday's close.

Sterling was little changed at $1.3387, while the dollar steadied at 101.94 against a basket of currencies.

Americans head to the polls on Tuesday to determine whether Democrats can wrest control of Congress away from US President ​Donald Trump's Republican Party. Democrats are widely predicted to win the House of Representatives, but the Senate is more in doubt.

"The challenge we face in analysing election outcomes is that polling suggests strong anti-incumbent sentiment, but that does not always translate into actual election outcomes - as we have seen in Brazil and now in Israel," said Eric Robertsen, global head of research and chief strategist at Standard Chartered.

In the event of a Democratic sweep of Congress, Robertsen said capex plans for data centres and AI infrastructure could face increasing obstacles at the state level, while the next debate on raising the US debt ceiling would be among the most contentious in recent history.

Meanwhile, Andreja Cobeljic, head of derivatives trading at AMINA Bank, said hedge funds had suffered "significant losses" in October, leaving markets with "little capacity" to absorb any surprises from the midterm elections.

In other currencies, the yen eased 0.15% to 157.78 per dollar. The Australian dollar was flat at $0.7033 ahead of Tuesday's policy decision, where the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to raise its cash rate to a near two-decade high of 4.85%.

The New Zealand dollar fell 0.11% to $0.5625, having slid 1.2% last week in the wake of its central bank's surprise decision to leave rates unchanged.

Elsewhere, bitcoin was up 0.22% at $77,975.62, having fallen to a six-week low on Friday. Ether was up 0.27% to $2,268.42, having similarly slid to a two-month trough last week.

Binance customers pulled $3.64 billion, or 2.1% of its assets, as the exchange went back online on Sunday after hackers the FBI links to North Korea stole billions from the platform last week.

Binance said withdrawals were stabilising after an initial spike and deposit volumes had remained "substantial". The exchange said it had now covered 95% of the $6.3 billion of stolen assets.

"The crypto industry has spent a decade making blockchains mathematically secure. It still runs on the assumption that an employee's laptop can be trusted," said Richard Forss, chief technology officer at global prime broker EXANTE. "That assumption is now the weakest point in digital finance."

(Reporting by Rae Wee; editing by Lincoln Feast.)

• USD/JPY remains bid after early Asia dip on risk aversion fades

• Decline to 157.45 from Fri 157.64 close sees strong demand on Fed rate bets

• Fed officials make case for rate hikes amid ongoing inflation concerns

• EUR/JPY unchanged after falling to a 1-yr low Fri on Europe fiscal concerns

• Upside for pair limited on France outlook cut, Frankfurt riots and looting

• Midterm US elections Tue, earnings, jobs data loom for AI-wary markets

• Support 157.40-45, 157.00-05, resistance 158.00-10, 158.50-60

• Asia Monday range 157.45-157.82; Japanese markets closed on Tuesday
Big Tech:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY eases slightly in early Asia on tech and metals selloff

• Quoted at 157.45/55 on trading platforms from NYK close of 157.64

• Wall St slumps as AI cash burn fears spark tech selloff, Intel slides

• Nasdaq posted largest one-day percentage drop since early June on Friday

• Tech rout drives gold to one-year low, white metals sink

• Midterm US elections, earnings, jobs data loom for AI-wary markets

• France outlook downgrade, Frankfurt riots likely to weigh on EUR/JPY

• Iran developments eyed as oil prices hit 6-mth high, may cap JPY upside

• USD also buoyed on Friday by Fed officials making case for rate hikes

• Friday range 157.96-157.89; Japanese markets closed on Tuesday
JPY:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD IMM net spec G10 long -$1.8bn to +38.6bn in Oct 21-27 reporting period; $IDX +0.56%

• Take today's data lightly, the dollar on higher oil and lower AI tech is lower in current period

• EUR$-1% in period; specs -9.4k contracts now -143.9k; French bond/fiscal tumult weighs

• $JPY -0.12%; specs +31.7k contracts now +101.6k; specs maintain JPY long on hawkish BoJ

• GBP$ -0.53%; specs +1k contracts now -79.4k; runup to UK budget kept bulls on sideline

• $CAD -0.05%; specs +8.3k contracts now -66.4k; BoC on more hawkish path than Fed

• AUD$ +0.27%; specs -1k contracts now -128.3k; despite less hawkish 2027 view, RBA has high rates

Majors w/IMM Performance Chart:


IMM Position Table:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

The euro fell against a mixed dollar at month-end Friday as risk-off sentiment fueled by AI spending concerns and higher oil prices lifted demand for haven currencies.

The Nasdaq fell to its lowest in nearly three months, while a potential escalation in the US-Iran conflict after the US midterm elections helped lift crude.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said at least two more Fed hikes may be needed to curb inflation.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said a key priority is ensuring elevated inflation does not spread through the broader economy, while Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said policy remains on a clear tightening path, though the pace of hikes is uncertain.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said AI is already influencing how central bankers think about policy.

The dollar index formed a doji after rebounding from its 101.59 lower Bollinger, though a turn lower in one-month risk reversals points to growing downside bias.

EUR/USD slid to 1.1137 amid risk-off dollar demand and remains bearish below its 10- and 21-DMAs and 1.1172 resistance.

GBP/USD edged higher and remains constructive near its 100-day moving average, supported by expectations of a BOE rate hike next week.

AUD/USD formed a doji above 0.7000 after a brief dip to 0.7014, maintaining a constructive tone while holding above its 10- and 21-DMAs.

USD/JPY remained mildly bearish below its 21-DMA at 157.90 heading into next week's event risks, with support at the lower Bollinger at 156.95 ahead of its cloud bottom at 156.63 and resistance at 158.44 cloud top.

Treasury yields were down 3 to 9 basis points as the curve steepened. The 2s-10s curve was up about 1 basis point to +34.7bp.

The S&P 500 fell 2.4% as weakness in tech weighed.

WTI oil rose about 2% to over $104/bbl.

Gold slumped 3.4% to a new YTD low while copper fell about 2.3%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.09%, USD/JPY -0.25%, GBP/USD +0.15%, AUD/USD +0.03%, DXY -0.17%, EUR/JPY -0.33%, GBP/JPY -0.10%, AUD/JPY -0.19%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7035 after 0.7043 traded overnight, the pair fell early

• Soured risk drove USD buying & gold, silver, stocks sharply lower

• US yields softened as investors sought safer assets

• AUD/USD fell to 0.7014 but then managed to bounce off that low

• The pair hit 0.7037, sat just above 0.7030 late in the day, traded up +0.05%

• USD/CNH lift above 6.6540, firm USD helped AUD/USD move downward

• Rising RSIs, pair's hold above the 10- & 21-DMAs are bullish signals

• Monthly bull hammer and bull pennant on monthly chart add to bull signs
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research addressed the potential allocation shift by Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), and the likely implications for the Yen.

"The higher probability of a shift in flows relative to earlier this year, combined with a faster pace of tightening by the BoJ, means that valuation can play a bigger role in JPY performance as the policies that have justified the Yen’s undervaluation for years appear to be shifting in a more constructive direction," GS notes.

"That leaves short USD/JPY a much more attractive portfolio hedge now than it has been in recent years, especially with the likelihood of greater AI-related volatility that could push both equities and yields lower together—a market regime that typically benefits the Yen most," GS adds.

• EUR/CHF has fallen 3% since scaling a 17-month peak near 0.95 on Sept 30

• 0.9185 marks the EBS 17-week low for EUR/CHF today (Oct 30)

• French fiscal concerns have rattled the euro since Oct 1

• 10-year French-German bond yield spread hit 15-year high in October

• SNB made 11.6 billion franc profit from its foreign currency positions in Q3

• Swiss Oct inflation data due Tuesday (Nov 3); CPI forecast at 1.3%

EURCHF

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)