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Nov 02 - 10:55 AM
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JP Morgan: We Stay Bullish AUD on Crosses into November RBA Meeting

By eFXdata  —  Nov 02 - 10:15 AM

JP Morgan discusses AUD outlook into the November RBA meeting on Tuesday.

"Following stronger-than-expected 3Q CPI data, the RBA is now widely expected to hike this week. Recent commentary from RBA leadership reiterated that Image 2 officials remain acutely focused on returning inflation to target and have shown greater tolerance for activity weakness (evident in GDP/labor data). Given current pricing, the focus for FX investors will be on the guidance, particularly in light of the RBA's front-footed approach relative to other DM central banks," JPM notes.

"We expect the RBA to retain a hawkish bias and flag that further rate hikes are possible, but given the Board's reactive nature of late, the upcoming CPI data will determine the future path of monetary policy. From a top-down perspective, we are bullish AUD on the crosses given an attractive terms of trade and carry profile. We expect a modest rebound in AUD/USD back up to 0.71 by year-end, holding within the 2H26 range," JPM adds.

Source:
JP Morgan Research/Market Commentary

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