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May 17 - 06:55 PM

EUR: ECB Hiking Cycle Starting Already In July - Nordea

By eFXdata  —  May 17 - 03:15 PM

Nordea Research discusses its expectations for the ECB policy trajectory.

"The ECB’s signals have constantly become more hawkish, pointing to a hike as early as the July meeting. This is also our baseline forecast. We see further 25bp moves in September and December this year and then quarterly in 2023, which would leave the deposit rate at 1.25% at the end of next year. Net asset purchases could be concluded already at the end of June, or by mid-July at the latest," Nordea notes. 

"In addition to the ECB’s signals, we find support for such a path from our growth and inflation views. We see Euro-area growth slowing only to around potential next year, and see core inflation above the ECB’s 2% target for practically our entire forecast horizon," Nordea adds. 

Source:
Nordea Research/Market Commentary

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