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Jun 02 - 12:12 PM

USD/JPY - COMMENT-USD/JPY Is Ripe For Breakout From Improbably Tight Range

By Randolph Donney  —  Jun 01 - 12:05 PM

USD/JPY's standoff above the daily kijun at 107.035 and below major resistance by 108.08 looks likely to end soon, perhaps a good time to go long vol.
Daily highs have been contained by the upper 10-day Bolli band since May 19's 108.085 EBS high, while Bolli band spreads have narrowed to 4-1/2-year lows, suggesting a breakout is probable.
Aside from May's high and April 16 and 17 highs at 108.085, the 61.8% Fibo of the April-May drop and the 50-WMA are also at 108.08.
Beyond are the 38.2% Fibo of the March-May slide, Tuesday's daily cloud top and the 200-DMA at 108.17-34.
The weekly cloud base is steady at 107.95 until late June.
Into this resistance, IMM specs have increased their net spec short position to its biggest in 4-1/2 years.
With May reopening, early June high-frequency data ahead, U.S.-China tensions and the U.S. and Japanese stock markets closer to record highs than pandemic lows, a lot must go right to clear 108+ hurdles on rising Treasury yields and risk-on yen selling.
Nearby breakout targets are 109.38 topside -- less likely -- and 106 after a sub-107 close.

Chart Click here

Chart Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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