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By Peter Stoneham  —  Jan 20 - 06:50 AM
  • Correction over and bear side calling again: 10DMA res. reinstated

  • Our 0.8335 short marginally on-side as cross drifts within a tight range

  • 14-day bearish momentum extends and confirms latest move

  • Daily RSI continues to flat line close to over sold

  • Tuesday key day had no s/t trend to reverse but still bearish

  • Wednesday's new low, 0.8314, the key support

  • Break here opens up psychological 0.8300 level

    For more click on FXBUZ

EUR/GBP Trader:

EUR/GBP daily candle chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jan 20 - 06:00 AM
  • 0.7221 is AUD/USD low water-mark since it hit 0.7257 intra-week high in Asia

  • Jump to 0.7257 spurred by strong Australian Dec jobs data nL1N2U000Y

  • Higher commodity prices, including iron ore, are also positive for AUD

  • See: nL1N2U00DC. Iron ore is Australia's single biggest export earner

  • Short-covering helped inflate AUD/NZD to six-month high of 1.0701 in Asia

  • IMM net AUD short at all-time high in week ended Jan 11 vs net NZD long

AUDUSD Click here

AUDNZD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jan 20 - 05:25 AM

Jan 20 (Reuters) - Sterling is on alert for the event risk of UK civil servant Sue Gray's report into allegations of rule-breaking by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his team, which is expected next week.

Gray's report might trigger an immediate leadership challenge to Johnson if it is harshly critical of the prime minister, or lessen the risk of him being challenged before UK local elections in May if he is absolved of most of the blame for lockdown parties held in Downing Street.

Johnson will face a confidence vote if 54 Conservative MPs write letters demanding one.
The current rules say that if he wins any such confidence vote, he cannot be challenged again for 12 months (markets expect the next UK general election to be held in the second quarter of 2024). nL8N2TZ1WWnS8N2RI050nL9N2RV012

The pound has proved resilient to the tumult around Johnson thus far, with GBP/EUR rising to 1.2028 on Wednesday, its highest level since February 2020 as a spike in inflation raised rate hike expectations.

Related comments: nL1N2TZ0QInL1N2TR0NOnL1N2TU0NW

For more click on FXBUZ

GBPEUR Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jan 20 - 04:10 AM
  • Corrective pullback from 1.3749 based at 1.3573 Tues low

  • Squeeze to 1.3649 Wed set up early Thurs gains

  • Risk of bull trend resumption on close above 1.3639, 10DMA

  • Fast average defined the trend between Dec 21. and Jan. 18

  • Fibos off the recent 1.3749-1.3573 drop come at 1.3640 and 1.3661

  • Below market cloud twist Feb 14 should make bulls wary

  • We prefer to stand aside for now

For more click on FXBUZ

GBP/USD Trader:

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jan 20 - 02:45 AM
  • USD/JPY chart is pointing to a likely drop in the days ahead

  • A cloud twist circa 113.86, on Jan 25, should act like a magnet to bears

  • Failure to close above the broken 114.92 Fibo has left bulls trapped

  • 114.92 Fibo is a 50% retrace of the 116.35 to 113.48 January EBS drop

  • Bull trap set when a market breaks above a tech level but quickly reverses

  • USD/JPY Trader TGM2336. EUR/JPY sees a 129.54-130.08 range on Thursday

Daily Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Ewen Chew  —  Jan 20 - 01:55 AM
  • AUD/USD recoils to 0.7230 from Thurs peak 0.7257; ASX +0.2%

  • Pullback could hurt chances of rebound extending to 100 DMA

  • Deflection at 0.7256 entrance of uptrend channel may disappoint

  • Bulls need a close above Ichimoku Cloud top 0.7275, also 50% line

  • That would impart technical momentum toward Fibo at 0.7340

  • Upbeat Australia jobs data improves rate hike odds nL1N2U000Y

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jan 20 - 01:50 AM
  • EUR/USD: 1.1285-90 (862M), (1.1300-10 (3.4BLN)

  • 1.1315-25 (1.04BLN), 1.1330-35 (656M)

  • 1.1345-50 (1.73BLN), 1.1360 (579M), 1.1375-80 (398M)

  • 1.1395-00 (598M), 1.1450-55 (1.35BLN), 1.1480-90 (657M)

  • 1.1500-05 (810M)

  • USDJPY: 113.00 (472M), 113.45-50 (546M), 114.00-10 (904M)

  • 114.15-20 (854M), 114.65-75 (674M)

  • GBP/USD 1.3550 (270M), 1.3750-55 (402M), 1.3770 (250M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.2570-80 (490M), 1.2590-00 (370M)

  • 1.2690-00 (490M), AUD/USD: 0.7080 (401M), 0.7160 (221M)

  • 0.7240-50 (578M), 0.7260-70 (526M), 0.7290-00 (664M)

  • USD/CHF 0.9150 (200M). USD/ZAR: 15.38-45 (333M)

    For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Jan 19 - 11:40 PM
  • AUD/USD gains 0.35% in Asia; strong AU jobs data stokes early rate hike bets

  • Australia jobless number dives to lowest since 2008 nL1N2U000Y

  • CPI data next week key, some economists see core inflation jumping to 2.5%

  • If borne out, will increase case for early rate hike

  • Westpac brings forward rate hike call to Aug 2022 from Feb 2023 previously

  • Buoyant commodities, metals lift AUD; oil near 7-year high, copper eyes $10k

  • Resistance 0.7255-60, 0.7280, support 0.7205-10, 0.7185-90

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 19 - 10:15 PM
  • EUR/USD opened +0.14% at 1.1343 as steady US yields led to USD selling nL1N2TZ25RnL1N2TZ1KI

  • It traded with a bid tone in Asia and moved up to 1.1366 at one stage

  • Heading into the afternoon it was trading around 1.1355

  • A daily close above the 21-day MA (1.1348) would ease downward pressure

  • Key resistance is at the 100-day MA at 1.1487 with sellers tipped 1.1370/80

  • Option related bids eyed between 1.1310/20 with trend-line support at 1.1281

  • Key will be moves in US yields ahead of the January 26th FOMC meeting

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 19 - 08:35 PM
  • AUD/USD has traded as high as 0.7257 after stops above 0.7240 were triggered

  • Sellers are tipped between 0.7270/80 with resistance at Jan 13 high @ 0.7314

  • AUD/USD was bid before the Aus jobs data and then got extra boost afterwards

  • The fall in Aus unemployment strengthens the case for RBA tightening nL1N2U000Y

  • Weak equity markets a drag on the AUD, but being offset by firm commodities

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 19 - 07:40 PM
  • AUD/USD traded up to 0.7232 from 0.7220 after solid Aus employment data nAZN022L7A

  • Unemployment fell to 4.2% in Dec (4.5% exp) and will sway RBA expectations

  • AUD/USD above 21-day MA (0.7224) with resistance at yesterday's 0.7239 high

  • A break above 0.7240 opens the way for another test above 0.7300

  • Sellers ahead of 0.7300 likely to cap in immediate-term

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 19 - 06:35 PM
  • EUR/USD opens 0.14% higher after US yields steadied and came off highs nL1N2TZ25RnL1N2TZ1KI

  • EUR/USD closed below the 21-day MA (1.1348) so pressure still on downside

  • Buyers are tipped at 1.1310/20 with trend-line support at 1.1281

  • EUR/USD at risk for lower ahead of next week's FOMC meeting

  • Price action suggests a top is in place ahead of 100-day MA at 1.1487

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 19 - 05:40 PM
  • The AUD/USD opens 0.35% higher after USD and US yields eased on the day nL1N2TZ1KInL1N2TZ25R

  • AUD also underpinned by rise in key commodities on supply concerns nL1N2TZ0XN

  • AUD/USD traded as high as 0.7239 before late slide on Wall Street capped nL1N2TZ2OY

  • Trend-line support is at 0.7179 with 50% of 0.6994/0.7314 at 0.7154

  • Resistance is at yesterday's 0.7239 high and trend higher at 0.7314

  • Some risk assets looking fragile and should limit AUD gains

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 19 - 03:00 PM

Nomura Research maintains a bullish and long USD/JPY exposure into next week's FOMC policy meeting.

"The start of US rate hikes in March and the four rate hikes this year are being priced, and USD’s overall strength has been running out of steam this week. However, the January FOMC meeting is likely to provide a clearer signal of whether interest rates will be raised at the March FOMC meeting, leaving room for USD to appreciate in Q1," Nomura notes. 

"We judge a relief rally is possible, maintaining USD/JPY call spreads, targeting 116-117," Nomura adds. 

Nomura Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Jan 19 - 02:45 PM

The dollar halted its recent recovery on Wednesday, losing ground after sellers emerged near the starting point of last week's plunge as markets attempt to reconcile signs of stagflation and hawkish Fed expectations ahead of next week's highly anticipated policy meeting nL1N2TZ1GY.

EUR/USD was supported by a pullback in Treasury yields from fresh two-year highs and 10-year Bund yields rising above zero for the first time since May 2019.

Speculation that the Fed would hike rates more aggressively this year than previously priced into the yield curve fueled the dollar's recovery and EUR/USD's slide since Friday.

But recent data disappointments, such as the fall in December U.S. retail sales, raise the risk that next week's Fed statement will not feature excessively hawkish guidance.

EUR/USD was up 0.2% as it consolidated the preceding week's wild swings near converging short to medium-term moving averages and above last Tuesday's lows at 1.1313, which were struck before the volatility began nL1N2TZ1HR.

Sterling was up 0.22%, benefiting from above-forecast and 30-year inflation high nL8N2TZ1E1 that bolsters BoE rate hike expectations, particularly after December's record jobs creation nL8N2TY13U.

The BoE is still expected to slightly outdo the Fed with rate hikes this year.
If so, and if the 200-DMA hurdle at 1.3735 that capped January's highs is closed above, 2021's major tops at 1.4240/50 could be retested nL1N2TZ1EI.

Cable has worked off much of last week's heavily overbought price pressure, pressures fueled by spec shorts being squeezed out over the last three weeks.

USD/JPY was down 0.3%, dropping away from the falling 10-DMA that capped Tuesday and Wednesday's highs, guided by falling Treasury-JGB yield spreads.

Though last week's dive held key Fibo props, the recovery is in doubt while below the 10-DMA and the converged daily tenkan and kijun at 114.83/76/75 on EBS.
The 114 level looks pivotal on a closing basis.

The Australian dollar was up 0.6%, getting extra help from rising minerals prices and perhaps on China's efforts to support its slowing economy nL1N2TY0CB and struggling property developers nL1N2TZ0KD.

High-beta currencies breathed a sigh of relief as retreating Treasury yields reduced risk aversion.

Bitcoin and ether continued to languish fairly close to January's multi-month lows.

Thursday features jobless claims, January Philly Fed data -- following a shock Empire drop nN9N2Q301X -- and existing home sales.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Jan 19 - 02:25 PM

  • USD/JPY was sent lower for 2nd day by the falling 10-DMA, 114.84 last

  • Rising Tsy-JGB yields spreads face deeply negative real yield spreads

  • Vast gap between rising USD/JPY and tumbling real yields in pandemic

  • Up to Fed to fill that gap with hikes, inflation drop nL1N2TZ1GY

  • But that's no mean feat due to risk-off feedback loop from tightening

  • Prices closer to Jan 13 low and 61.8% Fibo at 114.00 on EBS

  • Talk of 50bp March Fed rate hike faces next week's Fed meeting glare

  • Rising and twisting daily cloud also near 114 on Wed's Fed day

  • Jan's 113.475 low by twin Fibos at 113.44 key if Fed dashes bulls' hopes

For more click on FXBUZ

Chart Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 19 - 01:30 PM

Citi sees a scope for USD/JPY gains over the coming week.

"Market now prices in >1 hike for March FOMC and >4 hike for 2022 as a whole. It has been an incredible shift in Fed tightening expectations since the shift by Powell to drop the word "transitory"," Citi notes. 

"Near-term resistance in USD/JPT is found at the recent high at 116.3, which could be tested over the next week, given expectations for a hawkish FOMC meeting," Citi adds. 

Citi Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jan 19 - 12:40 PM
  • Small overnight dip halts near the rising channel base on daily charts

  • Buying ensues as soft US rates EDH2US2YT=RR weaken the U.S. dollar

  • AUD/USD climbs above the 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs during early NY trading

  • Pair's rally aided by copper HGv1, iron-ore DCIOc2 gains

  • Rising daily RSI, long legged monthly doji give techs a bullish lean

  • For more click on FXBUZ

audusd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 19 - 11:00 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research sees limited scope for further EUR/USD decline in the near-term.

"The EUR has emerged as one of the worst performing major currencies so far this week. Escalating geopolitical tensions with Russia have conspired with returning risk aversion, on the back of soaring UST yields, and elevated energy prices to send EUR/USD lower. Lurking in the background are yet more risks ahead of the Italian presidential election next week," CACIB notes. 

"While things may be starting to shape up as another perfect storm for the EUR, we think that the storm will ultimately pass. In particular, we think that improving global growth conditions in the coming quarters should boost both risk sentiment and the Eurozone outlook, as the current stagflationary risks abate. In turn, this could help reduce the (real) rate disadvantage of the EUR while attracting fresh inflows into the Eurozone equity markets," CACIB adds. 

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jan 19 - 10:25 AM

GBP/USD received a boost on Wednesday from above-forecast data showing UK inflation rose to a 30-year high of 5.4%, boosting BoE hike expectations and firming up sterling's chart outlook.

Markets are currently pricing in a 96% chance of a BoE hike at the Feb.
3 MPC meeting BOEWATCH.

Sterling rose back above the 10-DMA by 1.3632 and a close above there would confirms GBP/USD's bullish structure.
Adding to the upbeat outlook, the 21-DMA at 1.3543 will soon rise above the 100-DMA at 1.3548.

Currencies of economies further along the normalization trail are faring better versus the dollar, with the pound, loonie and aussie leading the charge higher.

Even perennial low rate currencies such as the euro and yen are rising as the post-pandemic inflation jolt leaves traders expecting some removal of accommodation as inflation rises.

UK and U.S. short-term rate futures 0#ED:0#SON3: indicate both the Fed and BoE are expected to hike rates to 1.3% by year-end 2022.
The BoE's earlier hike timeline may provide the impetus for GBP bulls to mount a run at 2021 highs by 1.4250.

For more click on FXBUZ

GBP Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 19 - 10:07 AM

Bank of America Global Research discusses GBP/USD technical outlook and likes buying dips in Q1.

"In late November and December we liked buying GBP at 1.32 for a rally to the 1.35s due to a variety of technical conditions. Since then GBP/USD has rallied and broke out above the channel with strong momentum to confirm the break. However the trend turned down from resistance at the 200d SMA as overbought conditions begin to correct," BofA notes. 


"The weekly chart of GBP/USD formed a head and shoulders bottom in 2020, broke above trend lines beginning in 2008 to change the long term trend from down to up and has successfully retested/rallied from the support zone in the 1.32s. Now GBP/USD is breaking out of a bull flag pattern with a bullish MACD cross. We think GBP/USD has medium term upside while above the 1.32s which can equate to a rally above the 2021 highs," BofA adds. 

BofA Global Research
By eFXdata  —  Jan 19 - 09:02 AM

Credit Suisse maintains a bullish bias on USD/JPY targeting 118 in Q1.

"As for USDJPY, given our current USD 118.00 target, we were somewhat puzzled last week by the enthusiasm some market participants felt for taking on JPY-bullish views linked to the idea of the BOJ announcing a clear hawkish shift. The actual developments at the BOJ meeting were more in tune with our expectations, to make it clear that no rate hikes or YCC target shifts are on the agenda," CS notes. 

"If anything the better argument for JPY strength now is simply a belief that higher US rates are so disruptive that they catalyse a persistent “risk off” phase for equities and credit such that JPY strengthens due to repatriation flows or increased Japanese hedging. Failing that, persistently wider US–Japan rate differentials should keep the underlying uptrend intact, and our USDJPY 118.00 target still in play," CS adds. 

Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jan 19 - 07:25 AM
  • US rates EDH2US2YT=RR stay elevated on perception Fed may become hawkish

  • Risk sentiment is upbeat despite interest rates holding near recent highs

  • Equities ESv1, copper HGv1, iron-ore DCIOc2 are all up in early NY

  • Yen sales rally AUD/JPY near 82.60, US$ selling send USD/CNH below 6.3485

  • AUD/USD rallies away from the base of the rising channel on daily charts

  • Pair hits 0.7215, rally stalls near the converging 10-, 21- & 55-DMAS

  • US Dec housing starts, AU Dec employment report are looming data risks

  • For more click on FXBUZ

audusd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jan 19 - 06:00 AM
  • Cable climbs to 1.3632 as BoE interest rate expectations lend support to GBP

  • Refinitiv measure says 95% chance of 25 bps BoE hike Feb 3 vs 85% Tuesday

  • Hawkish shift in expectations follows UK CPI rise to 30-year high of 5.4%

  • See: nL8N2TZ1E1. 1.3632 is high since Tuesday's one-week low of 1.3573

  • Bailey and Cunliffe will address UK TSC from 1415-1615 GMT re: BoE FSR

  • UK PM faces 'pork pie' plot to trigger leadership challenge nL8N2TZ10D

GBPUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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