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Apr 17 - 08:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-Cheap Options To Capture More EUR/USD Losses

By Richard Pace  —  Apr 17 - 06:50 AM

Price action in FX derivatives is consistent with a growing risk of increased volatility and deeper EUR/USD declines, but low cost options are still available for holders to participate should the situation arise.

Implied volatility is a realised volatility gauge and key component of an option premium, so it's no surprise to see it surge to new long-term highs, with an additional premium for EUR/USD downside strikes.
However, these higher premiums can be advantageous for more exotic type options.

A regular vanilla call option with a strike at 1.0600 and expiry in 1-month would cost 60 USD pips, or 33 USD pips with the strike at 1.05 and 17 USD pips with the strike at 1.0400 (break-even is the strike minus the premium).
However, the additional implied volatility premium for downside strikes will cheapen options with a knock-out trigger below the strike as that trigger is deemed more likely to be touched and kill the option.

For example, a 1-month expiry 1.0600 USD call with a knock out trigger at 1.0300 is half the price of its vanilla equivalent, albeit dead if 1.0300 trades.
Longer expiries and triggers closer to strike/current spot will be even cheaper.

Alternatively, vanilla EUR put/USD call spreads allow holders to sell EUR/USD at one strike providing they buy at another below it.
They are similar to KO-trigger options in that they are cheaper and profit potential is limited to the lower strike, but remain in play until expiry.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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