TD Research discusses the USD outlook and sees some room left in the USD bullish trade before a bearish turn on the greenback.
"We look at the FX market and other risk asset proxies in the context of the data regime. We test two indicators relating to global data surprises and the relative trends of data. Then, we split the data into four regimes: regime 2 is good for the USD, and regime 3 is bad for the USD. We're still in the good USD regime but closely watching the evolution of data surprises for a possible flip," TD notes.
"We exited the uber-bullish USD regime a while ago and now data surprises have started to make a convincing break higher. That's an important driver, especially if the Fed continues to highlight the disinflation theme and doesn't react much to the string of positive growth data," TD adds.