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Apr 22 - 01:55 PM

USD/JPY - COMMENT-USD/JPY Eyes 155 Into Friday's PCE, BoJ Event Risk, May 3 Jobs

By Randolph Donney  —  Apr 22 - 11:35 AM

The USD/JPY uptrend shook off Friday's fleeting flight-to-safety setback and is again focused on testing the 155 level and Japanese authorities' willingness to defend it, with a BoJ meeting, Tokyo CPI and U.S. core PCE at the end of this week key to supporting Treasury-JGB yields spreads and a breakout.

If Friday's April Tokyo CPI and the BoJ meeting's economic projections weaken the case for the two 10bp BoJ rate hikes currently priced in by year-end, an above-forecast March U.S. core PCE could bring the 155 breakout.

Core PCE is forecast up 0.3% month-on-month, with the year-on-year slipping to 2.7% from 2.8%, though the overall rate is expected at 2.6% from 2.5% last and 2.4% in January, much of why the Fed has shied away from rate cuts.

Unless the Japanese and U.S. data are substantially off forecast, a breakout above 155 options defenses could be limited initially, with two major Fibo objectives by 155.20 and other daily and weekly resistance in the mid to upper 155.00s.

Options pricing also shows greater hedging against pullbacks than a big bullish breakout.

Other than data misses this week, BoJ intervention or a slide in Treasury yields on worsening geopolitical risks, the biggest net spec USD/JPY long since 2007 may have to wait for the monthly U.S. employment report next Friday to learn its fate.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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