Aug 11 (Reuters) - EUR/USD is flashing warning signs after Monday's session saw the price stall at 1.1580 on EBS — a pip below Friday's peak.

The repeated highs form a double top pattern within an otherwise short-term bull trend. That formation alone is enough to put traders on alert for a potential reversal, but the technical backdrop is adding further weight to the bearish case.

The pair's failure to sustain a break above both the daily cloud top (1.1561) and the 100-day moving average (1.1567) is compounding the risk. Momentum readings aren't helping either, with the 14-day gauge beginning to lose its positive edge and the daily Relative Strength Index turning lower.

Overhead, resistance looms at 1.1587 — the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June slide from 1.1849 to 1.1325 — while the 200-day moving average, which has kept a lid on the market since May 15, sits at 1.1630.

The 20-day moving average and daily Ichimoku cloud base provide downside targets at 1.1467 and 1.1447, respectively.
EUR/USD daily chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Yen wobbles as intervention afterglow dims, USD/JPY saw a big rise on Monday

• USD/JPY closed up 208 pips, which was the biggest one-day rise since December 2025

• It closed above 158.56 Fibo, a 38.2% retrace of 163.99-155.20 intervention fueled slump

• The long-tail on August 3 candlestick points to a rejection of the USD/JPY downside

• USD/JPY has seen a 158.93-159.37 EBS range, on Tuesday

• Spot is now stuck within the thick 158.92-161.38 daily cloud resistance region

• However beware USD/JPY and EUR/JPY usually struggles in August

Daily Chart


USD/JPY Daily Rise Table


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/THB continues higher into afternoon trades as oil prices rise more

• Brent last +0.32% to $88.0/bbl, WTI +0.41% to $82.47/bbl

• Gold prices retreat slightly, spot last -0.35% to $4375/oz

• USD/THB last at 33.10-13, traded amid 32.97-33.11 range so far

• Nearby resistance at 33.20, 33.45; SET -0.29%
THB

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• AUD/USD flat Tue after RBA holds its policy rate steady at 4.35% as expected

• RBA: inflation risks titled to topside, housing market weaker than expected

• RBA Governor Bullock to address post-meeting press conference 0530 GMT

• AUD resistance at 0.7088 pivotal, expect stop-loss buying on break above

• U.S. & Iran both seeking reparations, likely to stall peace negotiations

• AU Q2 wage price index, and U.S. Jul CPI due Wed, U.S. Jul PPI due Thur

• RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent fireside chat in Sydney Thur

• Range Asia 0.70375-615 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Australia's Hawk Resources rise as much as 13.3% to A$0.034, their highest level since June 2

• Shares mark their biggest intraday pct gain since July 16

• The critical and precious metal explorer reports visible copper mineralisation in five of seven drill holes at its Cactus copper-gold project in Utah, the United States

• Adds some spots have indicated strong potential for gold mineralisation by the presence of highly anomalous silver, arsenic, and antimony

• About 6.6 million shares change hands, 4.1x the 30-day average

• Stock has gained 0.7%, YTD

(Reporting by Subhalakshmi Dey in Bengaluru)

• EUR/USD flat Tue in Asia, activity constrained due to JP market holiday

• Hope for U.S.-Iran peace fades again with both sides demanding reparations

• U.S. Jul core CPI update Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.2% m/m, +2.5% y/y

• EU Jun industrial production due Thur, Reuters poll consensus -0.8% y/y

• EUR 1.1623 resistance hard to break first attempt, expect more consolidation

• Range Asia 1.154250-4825, support 1.1353 1.1325, resistance 1.1623 1.1850
EUR Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/THB opens steady, may see sideways trades around the 33.0 pivot

• Higher oil prices and selling from exporters to cap rally

• Pair traded 32.98-33.07 range in NY, closed at 33.0

• Supports at 32.80, 32.50, resistance at 33.10, 33.30

• USD firms ahead of inflation data on Wed, DXY last at 99.76

• UST yields up as oil prices rise amid doubts on Hormuz deal

• 10yr UST yield last at 4.70%, 2yr at 4.24%

• Brent crude last $87.76/bbl, WTI at $82.15/bbl; spot gold last $4412/oz
THB

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• Australian gold miners rise as much as 1.8%, hit their highest level since mid-April

• Sub-index set for an eighth straight session of gains, if trend holds

• Overnight, gold prices rose nearly 1% [GOL/]

• Gold miners Northern Star Resources up 1%, while St Barbara climbs 2.1%

• Sub-index down 1.5% YTD, including session moves

(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)

• NZD/USD -0.3% from Mon 0.58995 high, DXY firms ahead U.S. inflation updates

• U.S. Jul core CPI due Wed (poll +2.5% y/y), PPI Thur (poll +4.9% y/y)

• U.S. & Iran both demanding reparations, likely to stall peace negotiations

• Release of RBNZ Q3 expectations survey Thur will be closely scrutinized

• NZD well supported near 0.5850, break below requires shift in RBNZ narrative

• Futures pricing presently implies 86.5% chance of 25 bps RBNZ hike Sep 2

• Range NZ 0.58815-84, support 0.5850 0.5627, resistance 0.5990-95 0.60925
NZD Daily 55-DMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.4% from Mon 0.7074 high as markets brace for RBA outcome 0430 GMT

• No OCR change widely expected, statement & post-meeting press conference key

• AUD 0.7088 resistance tough to break, hawkish RBA surprise could trigger

• Hope for U.S.-Iran peace fades again with both sides demanding reparations

• Brent crude +5.2%, Gold rally continues to extend, DXY & UST yields firm

• AU Q2 wage price index, and U.S. Jul inflation update both due Wed

• Overnight range 0.7048-74 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

MUFG Research on USD/JPY outlook after the latest wave of yen-buying intervention.

"After such a large FX drop in USD/JPY, market participants’ appetite for buying the yen could remain muted for now. Certain elements of the market, like retail FX margin traders, were short USD/JPY and could be playing a role in providing renewed yen selling flows," MUFG notes.

"Those short USD/JPY positions have probably been liquidated but returning to a carry strategy (rather than directional) may be deemed as more attractive once again at these lower levels, encouraging renewed USD/JPY buying," MUFG adds

• Employment background screening co First Advantage's shares down 6.7% at $22 post-market after secondary offering news

• Atlanta, Georgia-based FA says private equity firm Silver Lake to offload 12.5 mln shares

• JP Morgan acting as underwriter

• Prior to offering, Silver Lake owns about 89.56 mln of FA's ~171.75 mln shares outstanding, per LSEG data

• FA shares ended down 1.7% at $23.59 on Mon, trimming YTD gain to 62%

• 6 of 10 analysts rate the stock "strong buy" or "buy", 4 "hold"; median PT $27
(Lance Tupper is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Corrects typo in line 2)

• NY opened near 1.1555 after 1.1580 traded in Asia, the overnight drop extended

• USD buying, US yield gains & oil rally weighed on EUR/USD

• Drop in equities and gains for USD/CNH contributed to EUR/USD's move lower

• 1.1542 traded in NY's afternoon, the pair traded down -0.10% in NY's afternoon

• Falling daily RSI worries bulls but monthly RSI, hold above 10-, 21- 55-DMAs gives comfort
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7070 after 0.7074 traded overnight, the slide extended

• Steady USD buying, gains in US yields & USD/CNH weighed

• Rally in oil & drop in equities likely contributed to AUD/USD's drop

• 0.7053 traded before the pair bounced toward 0.7065, sellers emerged again

• Persistent USD buying had AUD/USD near 0.7055 late, it was down -0.21%

• Rallies in gold, silver, copper likely helped prevent a deeper AUD/USD fall

• Falling daily RSI, pair's hold below 50% Fib of 0.7277-0.6867 concern bulls
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research discusses GBP outlook this week.

"Looking ahead, the key domestic release will be the preliminary Q2 GDP print on 13 August, which should provide a clearer read on the UK growth outlook. Given the GBP's historically muted reaction to GDP releases, we do not expect it to be a major catalyst unless the outcome is materially different from expectations. From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is mildly constructive after holding above its 50-, 100- and 200-dmas. Momentum indicators have improved, with the RSI recovering above 50 and the MACD turning higher, suggesting scope for gains. However, the pair faces resistance around 1.35, with a sustained rise needed to break above 1.36," ANZ notes.

"Into this week, we expect GBP/USD to trade in the 1.345– 1.355 range, as markets await a fresh catalyst. As such, any further paring back of Fed tightening expectations or renewed USD weakness is likely to translate into GBP strength, making pullbacks opportunities to buy rather than signalling a change in trend," ANZ adds.

EUR/USD slipped on Monday, but investors holding long positions in the pair are likely to remain confident ahead of key U.S. inflation data due later this week.

This dip follows Friday's move, when the pair completed the consolidation phase of its advance from the July 28 low by rallying to a 1-1/2 month high. Even with Monday's pullback, the pair holds just below that high, a sign that bulls remain confident.

Additional support for bullish sentiment comes from yield differentials and inflation-rate markets. The dollar's yield advantage over the euro eroded further on Monday as U.S.-German 2-year yield spreads narrowed. Importantly, the spread remains above key support near -155 bps, which could help limit EUR/USD's downside if it continues to hold. Further encouragement comes from U.S. 2-year and 5-year

inflation breakeven rates, which hit fresh lows over the last two weeks in their decline from May peaks.

Attention now turns to the U.S. July CPI and PPI reports, due on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The data will likely need to come in above expectations for EUR/USD bulls to lose confidence.

Conversely, results that come in as expected or below forecasts are likely to send the dollar and Treasury yields lower as investors price in a reduced probability of Fed rate hikes. Should that scenario play out, EUR/USD would likely resume its rally from the July 28 low, reinforcing the pair's broader upward trajectory.
usbei


deus


eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

 Nomura Research discusses the latest wave of Japan's MoF yen-buying intervention.

"We yet don't know the amount of intervention from both sides, but we estimate the Japanese authorities provided approximately JPY14.1trn in intervention or $88bn from 30 July to 3 August, using the BOJ's daily data and local money market dealers' projections. This exceeds the amount of MOF intervention on 30 April, 4 May and 6 May, which was officially confirmed by the MOF as JPY11.7349trn. On these interventions in April-May, we found this daily intervention result somewhat surprising, as it did intervene on 4 May, as we believed that intervention did not occur on this day, based on price action on that day," Nomura notes.

"On the amount of US intervention, we were unable to confirm it from the US Treasury's weekly FX reserves data; however, reports from the FT and Nikkei strongly suggest the US likely conducted short EUR/JPY intervention. The US likely chose this pair to curb JPY weakness, as it did not want to convey a message to the market that could be inconsistent with its strong USD policy," Nomura adds.

GBP/USD is once again threatening a push toward trend highs above 1.35. The pound has maintained a bullish tone in recent sessions, although it has yet to secure a sustained break higher.

Cable's recent climb reflects a broadly softer dollar rather than a distinctly sterling-positive story. The move has been aided by Fed commentary following the recent dovish hold, as well as softer U.S. data, which have tempered expectations for further hawkish Fed policy and lent support to the pound. That narrative faces a key test with Wednesday's U.S. CPI release, which should offer fresh clues on the inflation outlook. While inflation has eased recently, it remains well above the Fed's 2% target.

Looking at the broader picture, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and volatility in oil prices may complicate the inflation outlook. Brent crude has traded between $72 and $110 per barrel since May, suggesting the outlook is unlikely to shift dramatically with Wednesday's data. Current consensus forecasts anticipate annual CPI inflation of 3.4% in July, a slight easing from 3.5% previously.

On the technical front, GBP/USD faces immediate resistance at Friday's high of 1.3509, followed by the July 15 high of 1.3556. On the downside, the rising 10-day moving average at 1.3441 offers initial support, with stronger support found in the 1.3406 to 1.3400 range, which includes the flat 200-DMA and key psychological levels. Traders will be closely watching these levels as the market reacts to upcoming economic data.
GBP Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research previews this week's August RBA Policy meeting.

"We expect the RBA Board to leave the cash rate at 4.35% at its August 11 meeting, extending the pause that followed 75bp of tightening earlier in the year. However, both the post-meeting statement and press conference should retain a hawkish tone," MS notes.

"The Governor is likely to emphasize the persistence of above-target inflation and the risk it poses to inflation expectations. However, the softer domestic demand outlook should temper that message somewhat. We expect the Board's decision to be unanimous," MS adds.

• AUD/USD rallied above the 50% fib of 0.7277-0.6867 overnight

• The pair neared Friday's high, hit 0.7074 then fell back below the Fibo

• 0.7057 traded, NY opened near 0.7065, AUD/UDS was down -0.07% early NY

• Pair's topside limited by firm UDS, US yields, gold drop & USD/CNH lift

• Rallies in copper, silver and equities helped to limit the pair's downside

• Falling daily RSI, inability to hold above the Fibo are concerns for bulls

• Rising monthly RSI, August's monthly bull hammer give bulls some comfort
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD looks set for back-to-back gains

• Fall-out from Friday's US data undermining the dollar

• Euro climbs above its daily cloud and 100-day moving average

• Bulls eye the key 200-day average, currently 1.1630-EBS pricing

• Market has been below the 200-DMA since May 14

• Friday's high 1.1580, matched early Monday: close above significant

• Euro zone investor morale turns positive in August, Sentix survey

• Index +0.9 points in Aug vs -3.1 in July, compared with a Rtrs poll f/c of -0.5
EUR/USD daily chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY has seen a 157.23-158.74 range, on Monday, according to EBS data

• Long-tail on August 3 candlestick points to a rejection of the downside

• Those that are bullish need spot to register a daily close above the 158.56 Fibo

• Spot marginally traded above the 158.56 Fibo on Friday, but did not close above

• 158.56 Fibo is a 38.2% retrace of the 163.99-155.20 recent intervention fueled slump

• Note USD/JPY and EUR/JPY usually struggles in August

• Japan's executives call for FX stability as weak yen intensify import-cost pressure

• BOJ's debate on faster hikes bolsters September rate move odds

Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable retains a constructive bias following Friday’s bullish outside day

• Resistance at 1.3500-10 now tested. Sustained break would expose 1.3556 (July 15 high)

• Softer U.S. jobs data has pared Fed hike expectations, weighing on the USD

• Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report is the next key directional catalyst for dollar pairs

• UK labour-market conditions appear to be stabilising, according to the latest REC/KPMG survey

• Initial support remains at 1.3390-1.3406, where the 200-day moving-average cluster sits
GBPUSD daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• Shares of Tongguan Gold Group climb 3.1% to HK$2.855, their highest level since May 12 and extending gains to a fourth straight session

• HK-listed gold miner, with current market value of $1.94 billion, expects first-half net profit to rise 49%-55% y/y to HK$510 million-HK$530 million ($65.01 million-$67.56 million), thanks to higher selling price of its products

• Excluding impact of one-off tax expense, adjusted profit attributable is expected to jump 76%-82% to HK$605 million-HK$625 million

• YTD, stock up 2%, benchmark Hang Seng Index up 1%

($1 = 7.8451 Hong Kong dollars)

(Reporting by Donny Kwok)