ANZ Research adopts a slightly bullish bias on EUR/USD in October.

"Beyond France, Europe’s economic backdrop has strengthened. The ECB raised the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.50% in September, with staff forecasting headline inflation at 3.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, while upgrading 2027 growth to 1.4%. Importantly for the EUR, the backdrop is giving the ECB room to remain restrictive. The latest activity data strengthen this case...We think this combination of firmer growth and above-target inflation should keep ECB expectations relatively hawkish and provide a floor for EUR/USD in October. EUR/USD’s post-hike pattern also points to some near-term consolidation," ANZ notes.

"Looking ahead, energy prices and French sovereign spreads will be critical. The 29 October ECB meeting will be the key domestic event. Stabilisation in OATs and an unwind of extended EUR shorts should provide some support to EUR. Overall, we are moderately constructive on EUR/USD in October. USD strength may limit the pace of gains, but domestic factors should favour a gradual recovery in EUR/USD," ANZ adds.