The positive impact on German exports to the United States from the relatively low EUR/USD exchange rate may help to keep the U.S. as Germany's top trading partner into November's U.S. presidential election.

EUR/USD has traded sub-1.09 through the second quarter-to-date, thereby maintaining its chunky discount to the approximate 1.21 mid-point of its lifetime range (0.8228-1.6040, EBS levels).

The U.S. overtook China as Germany's most important trading partner in the first quarter of this year, according to Reuters' calculations.
China was Germany's top trading partner in 2023 for the eighth year in a row.

Data published earlier this week showed German exports to the U.S. rose by 3.6% in March.

Events will dictate whether the U.S. remains Germany's top trading partner beyond November 5. "Trump trade advisers plot dollar devaluation" was the headline of a Politico article published last month (April 15).

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